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SilenceMoon

SilenceMoon

学习为主

IP属地：江苏

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07-26 14:22

$NQ100指数主连 2409(NQmain)$ 再跌个几天再看吧

06-20

$美光科技(MU)$ 年底至少190-220

06-18

要是有个功能能实时分享自己的持仓股票的收益率就好了

06-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

全球“抱团”美股，美股“抱团”AI

06-11

$苹果(AAPL)$ 新界面丑得可以把乔布斯气活了

06-11

$礼来(LLY)$ 当Tirzepatide上市，礼来的股市能涨到多少呢[思考]

06-04

$苹果(AAPL)$ 当然可以，希望苹果这次能带给我们惊喜

06-03

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 夜盘系统直接撤单？不让交易了么[笑哭]

05-31

只要英伟达不突然脑抽发布像Apple Vision那样的高科技产品，不会超过7月底就能超过果子了。

05-31

$拼多多(PDD)$ 部分产品打上显著标签显示比淘宝京东抖音便宜多少，还有自动比价系统，显然他们这次618就是冲着全网最低价的策略去的，这也是在消费降级时代和其他电商平台争夺用户的最明智的决定。什么高端联名限量高质价保，现在统统没用，就是最低价，就是仅退款，就是直播推荐，就是赚穷人钱，你京东阿里巴巴这几年究竟玩明白没有啊[捂脸] ，咋一直追着别人学还学不明白呢[捂脸] 淘宝你那Gmv都快没抖音电商高了还以为自己可以慢慢改吗。今年这618估计又是拼多多要靠假货和瑕疵品夺冠了。大家又要一边喊着劣币驱逐良币一边又继续看拼多多财报利润惊人了。

05-29

$拼多多(PDD)$ 这个会是Temu在美国无法清关导致的吗？[捂脸] 明明这么好的财报，股价却在下跌，老外宁可信阿里巴巴也不信拼多多……

05-22

$MGO Global Inc.(MGOL)$ 最后一笔Meme股，处理完去赌英伟达财报了

05-20

$做空波动率指数期货ETF(SVIX)$ Meme股太疯狂了，先把钱💰放这里冷静一下......等这波风潮过去了再看看有没有机会吧………

05-16

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 现在和$AMC院线(AMC)$ $Faraday Future(FFIE)$ 已经过时了，人们在找下一个ffie $Crown Electrokinetics Corp.(CRKN)$ $Greenwave Technology Solutions Inc.(GWAV)$

05-16

$Greenwave Technology Solutions Inc.(GWAV)$ 目前美国散户都在买这个呢还有$Crown Electrokinetics Corp.(CRKN)$ ，主打一个逼空[开心]

05-14

$游戏驿站(GME)$ 还好盘前跑了………

04-25

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天到750？

04-23

$俄罗斯ETF-Market Vectors(RSX)$ 我不要你的分红，能让我把钱取出来嘛[捂脸] [捂脸] [流泪]

03-29

$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 如果真的主要持仓的是Spacex 的话，感觉还能涨…

03-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@33_Tiger:大摩下调Tesla目标价的理由是什么？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2409(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 再跌个几天再看吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2409(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 再跌个几天再看吧","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2409(NQmain)$ 再跌个几天再看吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331645169725536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318786536530144,"gmtCreate":1718842432130,"gmtModify":1718842433563,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 年底至少190-220","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 年底至少190-220","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ 年底至少190-220","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318786536530144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318156578054360,"gmtCreate":1718713488853,"gmtModify":1718713490895,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要是有个功能能实时分享自己的持仓股票的收益率就好了","listText":"要是有个功能能实时分享自己的持仓股票的收益率就好了","text":"要是有个功能能实时分享自己的持仓股票的收益率就好了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318156578054360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":317449495142656,"gmtCreate":1718541369362,"gmtModify":1718541370909,"author":{"id":"3476157925784149","authorId":"3476157925784149","name":"SilenceMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12e37e047e024932ea6014b33016a68","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317449495142656","repostId":"2443943580","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2443943580","pubTimestamp":1718506695,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2443943580?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-16 10:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全球“抱团”美股，美股“抱团”AI","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2443943580","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"过去一个月内，全球约有300亿美元新资金流入股票基金，其中高达94%投向了美国资产；一季度，海外投资者购入了1870亿美元美国公司债券，同比增长61%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>过去一个月内，全球约有300亿美元新资金流入股票基金，其中高达94%投向了美国资产；一季度，海外投资者购入了1870亿美元美国公司债券，同比增长61%。</p></blockquote><p>尽管美国面临债务问题和大选带来的政治分歧，但在欧洲选举压力、日央行再度推迟公布缩表细节致使日元汇率风险不减的双重夹击下，<strong>全球投资者纷纷“抱团”美国股债。</strong></p><p>本周，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的涨幅创下过去15个月最高周涨幅。同时，美国长期国债收益率也上升至3.5%，创下了2024年的最佳表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ef34ff6711c3e7e16c7c84e0a47cfa0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>来到美股市场，随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>三家“3万亿巨头”市值轮番创下历史新高，<strong>AI/科技相关公司则成为资金抱团的“首要目标”。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>投资研究所高级全球市场策略师Sameer Samana表示：</p><blockquote><p>“美国拥有一批在全球其他地方无可匹敌的AI/科技相关公司......</p><p>（因此，美国市场对全球投资者的吸引力）可能会持续一段时间，直到这些因素发生变化，或者出现合适的替代品。”</p></blockquote><p>投资公司Research Affiliates的股票策略首席投资官Que Nguyen则认为，<strong>在最大科技公司所占权重极高的背景下，追逐美国股票的收益也存在风险：</strong></p><blockquote><p>“我们已经进入了一个大公司变得更大的时代，目前尚不清楚这种情况是否能维持下去......</p><p>美国大公司主导地位将面临挑战，面临来自较小公司或海外竞争对手的潜在威胁。”</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_4203434702\">全球投资者“抱团”美国股债</h2><p>尽管美联储暗示将放缓加息步伐、 激烈的美国大选带来诸多不确定性，但全球投资者仍纷纷涌入美国市场。</p><p>道明证券 (TD Securities) 整理的EPFR Global数据显示，过去一个月内，约有300亿美元新资金流入股票基金，其<strong>中高达94%投向了美国资产，尤其是科技股领域，且衡量投资者对美国股票偏好的指标徘徊在三年高位。</strong></p><p><strong>国际投资者对于美国信贷市场同样兴趣高涨。</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APO\">阿波罗全球管理</a>公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok表示，2024年第一季度，海外投资者购入了1870亿美元美国公司债券，同比增长61%。</p><p>在除美国以外的全球市场，MSCI全球指数（不包括美国）下跌超过2%。日本央行对债券购买计划缺乏详细说明，给日元带来了压力；欧洲的情况更加糟糕，在法国马克龙决定提前举行选举后，法国股市出现了两年多来的最大跌幅，抹去了2024年的所有涨幅。</p><p>投资公司Berenberg资产策略主管Ulrich Urbahn表示：</p><blockquote><p>“美国拥有最大、最具创新性的公司，盈利增长强劲，同时也受益于该国目前的‘避险地位’......</p><p>势头会催生势头。FOMO（错失恐惧症）显然也是一个原因。”</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e6b27d7c8369dd43441c90263262c4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"549\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_387380327\">美股“抱团”AI，市场“头重脚轻”</h2><p>来到美股市场，<strong>AI/科技相关公司则成为资金抱团的“首要目标”。</strong>根据EPFR Global 和美国银行汇编的数据，本周美股科技板块流入资金达21 亿美元，为3月份以来的最高水平。</p><p>数据显示，在美国长期股票型共同基金中，今年唯一一个行业敞口增加的领域便是科技。根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">巴克莱银行</a>策略师Venu Krishna等人编制的数据，银行、医疗保健和非必需消费品公司在这些投资组合中的低配比例不断增加。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cce480a83f91d1405e111636c2631db1\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"641\"/></p><p>与此同时，在Mag 7概念逐渐被人忘却，所占的权重极高的苹果、微软、英伟达三家“3万亿巨头”搭台唱戏的背景下，美股市场的“集中度风险”似乎也在不断提升，市场分化现象越来越明显。金融博客Zerohedge评论称：</p><blockquote><p>“现在似乎重要的只有前三大科技公司——苹果、微软和英伟达——它们的市值几乎相同，都约为3.2万亿美元...... 实际上，现在再也没有什么比这三家公司更重要的了 ”</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6b8feff598f80da3621f2220432dd5\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>数据显示，尽管标普指数在本周连续四次创下历史新高，但等权重标普在过去4个月内没有任何变化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc56112596b8123fa8d714ab25d68b8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>这种现象不止存在于科技股与非科技的对比中。即使在科技领域内，也存在惊人的分歧——<strong>例如，周四纳指有72%的成分股收盘走低，创下新低的股票数量是创下新高的股票数量的两倍多，但当日纳指仍创下了新高</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5edf7ff9126ea11442766d3e8f3e7e62\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p><p>而等权重的纳斯达克指数在过去10天中有9天表现不佳。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02283989078b48a685b0c02d93144c7d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"564\"/></p><p>美国资产的集中势头，也给那些遵循地理多样化策略的投资者带来了麻烦。彭博编制的数据显示，在644只专注于国际资产的ETF中，只有不到7%的基金跑赢了标普500指数。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全球“抱团”美股，美股“抱团”AI</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全球“抱团”美股，美股“抱团”AI\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-16 10:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3717297><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去一个月内，全球约有300亿美元新资金流入股票基金，其中高达94%投向了美国资产；一季度，海外投资者购入了1870亿美元美国公司债券，同比增长61%。尽管美国面临债务问题和大选带来的政治分歧，但在欧洲选举压力、日央行再度推迟公布缩表细节致使日元汇率风险不减的双重夹击下，全球投资者纷纷“抱团”美国股债。本周，标普500指数的涨幅创下过去15个月最高周涨幅。同时，美国长期国债收益率也上升至3.5%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3717297\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4543":"AI","BK4538":"云计算","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","LU0308772762.SGD":"Blackrock Global Allocation A2 SGD-H","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) 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ACC","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","BK4567":"ESG概念","AAPL":"苹果","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","MSFT":"微软","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3717297","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2443943580","content_text":"过去一个月内，全球约有300亿美元新资金流入股票基金，其中高达94%投向了美国资产；一季度，海外投资者购入了1870亿美元美国公司债券，同比增长61%。尽管美国面临债务问题和大选带来的政治分歧，但在欧洲选举压力、日央行再度推迟公布缩表细节致使日元汇率风险不减的双重夹击下，全球投资者纷纷“抱团”美国股债。本周，标普500指数的涨幅创下过去15个月最高周涨幅。同时，美国长期国债收益率也上升至3.5%，创下了2024年的最佳表现。来到美股市场，随着苹果、微软、英伟达三家“3万亿巨头”市值轮番创下历史新高，AI/科技相关公司则成为资金抱团的“首要目标”。富国银行投资研究所高级全球市场策略师Sameer Samana表示：“美国拥有一批在全球其他地方无可匹敌的AI/科技相关公司......（因此，美国市场对全球投资者的吸引力）可能会持续一段时间，直到这些因素发生变化，或者出现合适的替代品。”投资公司Research Affiliates的股票策略首席投资官Que Nguyen则认为，在最大科技公司所占权重极高的背景下，追逐美国股票的收益也存在风险：“我们已经进入了一个大公司变得更大的时代，目前尚不清楚这种情况是否能维持下去......美国大公司主导地位将面临挑战，面临来自较小公司或海外竞争对手的潜在威胁。”全球投资者“抱团”美国股债尽管美联储暗示将放缓加息步伐、 激烈的美国大选带来诸多不确定性，但全球投资者仍纷纷涌入美国市场。道明证券 (TD Securities) 整理的EPFR Global数据显示，过去一个月内，约有300亿美元新资金流入股票基金，其中高达94%投向了美国资产，尤其是科技股领域，且衡量投资者对美国股票偏好的指标徘徊在三年高位。国际投资者对于美国信贷市场同样兴趣高涨。阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家Torsten Slok表示，2024年第一季度，海外投资者购入了1870亿美元美国公司债券，同比增长61%。在除美国以外的全球市场，MSCI全球指数（不包括美国）下跌超过2%。日本央行对债券购买计划缺乏详细说明，给日元带来了压力；欧洲的情况更加糟糕，在法国马克龙决定提前举行选举后，法国股市出现了两年多来的最大跌幅，抹去了2024年的所有涨幅。投资公司Berenberg资产策略主管Ulrich Urbahn表示：“美国拥有最大、最具创新性的公司，盈利增长强劲，同时也受益于该国目前的‘避险地位’......势头会催生势头。FOMO（错失恐惧症）显然也是一个原因。”美股“抱团”AI，市场“头重脚轻”来到美股市场，AI/科技相关公司则成为资金抱团的“首要目标”。根据EPFR Global 和美国银行汇编的数据，本周美股科技板块流入资金达21 亿美元，为3月份以来的最高水平。数据显示，在美国长期股票型共同基金中，今年唯一一个行业敞口增加的领域便是科技。根据巴克莱银行策略师Venu Krishna等人编制的数据，银行、医疗保健和非必需消费品公司在这些投资组合中的低配比例不断增加。与此同时，在Mag 7概念逐渐被人忘却，所占的权重极高的苹果、微软、英伟达三家“3万亿巨头”搭台唱戏的背景下，美股市场的“集中度风险”似乎也在不断提升，市场分化现象越来越明显。金融博客Zerohedge评论称：“现在似乎重要的只有前三大科技公司——苹果、微软和英伟达——它们的市值几乎相同，都约为3.2万亿美元...... 实际上，现在再也没有什么比这三家公司更重要的了 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200个基点。特斯拉目前的产品线在竞争激烈的市场中相对老化，主要产品还是在Covid之前面世。中国EV市场供应过剩，降价接二连三，价格竞争将在2024年持续并将刺激厂商加大成本削减力度。今年的汽车业务可能出现GAAP EBIT 亏损，预计GAAP 运营利润率在 2-3% 范围内，这意味着潜在的电动汽车制造利润率（不包括下游零售和 ZEV 信贷）可能出现亏损。2024年上半年的业绩将低于预期。为了应对盈利能力下降，预计特斯拉将取消降价措施，以保证利润率和现金流。2024预测模型变化：销量削减至低于200万，汽车毛利率从之前的13.2%降低到11.4%。320 美元 PT 由 6 个部分组成：&nbsp;&nbsp; 1）2030 年，特斯拉核心汽车业务估值 68 美元/股，&nbsp; 2）Tesla Mobility 的 DCF 估值为 61 美元，&nbsp; 3）第三方供应商业务估值 39 美元/股，&nbsp;&nbsp;4）能源业务为 38 美元/股，&nbsp; 5）保险业务为 6 美元/股，&amp;&nbsp; 6）Network Services为 108 美元，月活跃用户数为 17.7m。修订后，大摩预计特斯拉的估值约为14.5 倍 2030 年电动汽车/息税折旧摊销前利润 (EV/EBITDA)。&nbsp;熊市情况（100 美元/股）或牛市情况（500 美元/股）没有变化。大摩重申对特斯拉的增持评级，目标价为 320 美元。关于特斯","text":"大摩将 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 目标价从345美元下调到320美元。主要观点是：价格持续下调，但主要市场电动汽车需求仍在继续放缓。混合动力势头车复兴，正在争夺边际EV买家； 根据大摩预计，混合动力车的今年市场份额将增加 100个基点至 200个基点。特斯拉目前的产品线在竞争激烈的市场中相对老化，主要产品还是在Covid之前面世。中国EV市场供应过剩，降价接二连三，价格竞争将在2024年持续并将刺激厂商加大成本削减力度。今年的汽车业务可能出现GAAP EBIT 亏损，预计GAAP 运营利润率在 2-3% 范围内，这意味着潜在的电动汽车制造利润率（不包括下游零售和 ZEV 信贷）可能出现亏损。2024年上半年的业绩将低于预期。为了应对盈利能力下降，预计特斯拉将取消降价措施，以保证利润率和现金流。2024预测模型变化：销量削减至低于200万，汽车毛利率从之前的13.2%降低到11.4%。320 美元 PT 由 6 个部分组成： 1）2030 年，特斯拉核心汽车业务估值 68 美元/股， 2）Tesla Mobility 的 DCF 估值为 61 美元， 3）第三方供应商业务估值 39 美元/股， 4）能源业务为 38 美元/股， 5）保险业务为 6 美元/股，& 6）Network Services为 108 美元，月活跃用户数为 17.7m。修订后，大摩预计特斯拉的估值约为14.5 倍 2030 年电动汽车/息税折旧摊销前利润 (EV/EBITDA)。 熊市情况（100 美元/股）或牛市情况（500 美元/股）没有变化。大摩重申对特斯拉的增持评级，目标价为 320 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