Gordon9375的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Gordon9375

Gordon9375

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IP属地：北京

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7主题

0勋章

11-06

焦灼

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-11-02

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@港股研究社:希慎兴业上半年实现收入16.11亿港元，提高出租率成首要工作

2023-08-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@窝轮女神Fifi:【财报解读】Sea Q2每股收益与销售额均未达预期盘前暴跌

2023-02-11

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎说英股:明星基金2021年总结：收益好好

2023-01-22

$谷歌A(GOOGL)$ 关注一下

2023-01-19

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@阿浦美股:菲利普莫里斯国际：很难不看好的潜力股！

2023-01-19

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@zxmzlp:卡夫亨氏投资价值探讨

2022-12-30

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@亏小赚大:$老虎证券(TIGR)$ $富途控股(FUTU)$ 从最新的文件来看，作出了一些改变： 1.大陆新用户，禁止开户，以后这一块彻底为0 2.大陆老用户，禁止通过大陆银行直接或间接的入金，但仍然可以正常交易、可以使用与大陆无关的境外资金入金总的来看，与去年的文件没有太大区别，但说的更详细了。 $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2303(NQmain)$

2022-12-05

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@Gentle麦克斯:2023年美股操作思路

2022-12-01

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小虎综合资讯:昨夜今晨 | 美股纳指3连跌！累涨近30%，中概或迎史上最大单月涨幅

2022-11-15

$中国再保险(01508)$ 建仓

2022-11-15

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@ckck251:从2015年到2020年近6年中，诺亚财富踩中的大雷包括：辉山乳业、乐视、承兴国际、景泰基金、悦榕项目、万家共赢、永宣、誉衡药业、斗鱼等等。现在香港二次上市，对诺亚而言，踩雷是经济周期中的正常现象。可对血本无归的投资者，诺亚该怎主张＇卖者尽责，买者自负＇来兑付。汪总说从来没有过刚性兑付，也没有做过资金池，事实上，诺亚财富在34亿承兴创世核心企业应收账款就前后滚动发行了100多亿，难道不是资金池？不是借新还旧？别再上这家公司的当，割你韭菜没商量

2022-11-07

$亚马逊(AMZN)$90，70，50，30

2022-10-17

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-10-10

$西部水泥(02233)$又回来了

2022-10-10

$腾讯控股(00700)$哎

2022-10-07

8888

2022-10-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$少见的

2022-09-29

$腾讯控股(00700)$还能跌多少啊

2022-09-14

8.3

@美股解毒师:为何美国8月CPI又爆了？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00014\">$希慎兴业(00014)$</a> 具体业务方面，写字楼业务于2023年首六个月，集团写字楼业务组合的营业额下跌7.5%至7.45亿港元，其中包括按营业额收取的租金2百万港元。集团商铺业务组合的营业额减少9.9%至7.62亿港元。按营业额收取的租金为87百万港元。写字楼方面，执行董事兼首席营运总监吕干威表示，出租率是其首要工作。公司在努力发展不同的需求，包括零售、银行、金融及财富管理业，吸引到一些新的需求帮助出租率。 此外，富瑞发布研究报告予希慎兴业“买入”评级，目标价23港元。该行指出，公司业绩好过预期，主因资产提升工程(AEI)对业绩影响较小，加上更好的成本节约成果，支持每股派息同比持平。财务成本也低于该行预期，并期待管理层在会议就零售复苏、办公室前景、股息政策和资本支出计划提供更多信息。","listText":"港股研究社讯，希慎兴业发布2023年半年度报告。报告期内，实现收入16.11亿港元，同比减少9.3%，经营性基本净利润10.26亿港元，同比减少12.2%，归属股东净利润1.9亿港元。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00014\">$希慎兴业(00014)$</a> 具体业务方面，写字楼业务于2023年首六个月，集团写字楼业务组合的营业额下跌7.5%至7.45亿港元，其中包括按营业额收取的租金2百万港元。集团商铺业务组合的营业额减少9.9%至7.62亿港元。按营业额收取的租金为87百万港元。写字楼方面，执行董事兼首席营运总监吕干威表示，出租率是其首要工作。公司在努力发展不同的需求，包括零售、银行、金融及财富管理业，吸引到一些新的需求帮助出租率。 此外，富瑞发布研究报告予希慎兴业“买入”评级，目标价23港元。该行指出，公司业绩好过预期，主因资产提升工程(AEI)对业绩影响较小，加上更好的成本节约成果，支持每股派息同比持平。财务成本也低于该行预期，并期待管理层在会议就零售复苏、办公室前景、股息政策和资本支出计划提供更多信息。","text":"港股研究社讯，希慎兴业发布2023年半年度报告。报告期内，实现收入16.11亿港元，同比减少9.3%，经营性基本净利润10.26亿港元，同比减少12.2%，归属股东净利润1.9亿港元。 $希慎兴业(00014)$ 具体业务方面，写字楼业务于2023年首六个月，集团写字楼业务组合的营业额下跌7.5%至7.45亿港元，其中包括按营业额收取的租金2百万港元。集团商铺业务组合的营业额减少9.9%至7.62亿港元。按营业额收取的租金为87百万港元。写字楼方面，执行董事兼首席营运总监吕干威表示，出租率是其首要工作。公司在努力发展不同的需求，包括零售、银行、金融及财富管理业，吸引到一些新的需求帮助出租率。 此外，富瑞发布研究报告予希慎兴业“买入”评级，目标价23港元。该行指出，公司业绩好过预期，主因资产提升工程(AEI)对业绩影响较小，加上更好的成本节约成果，支持每股派息同比持平。财务成本也低于该行预期，并期待管理层在会议就零售复苏、办公室前景、股息政策和资本支出计划提供更多信息。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7ee3854cf131981e55123912148a758","width":"526","height":"398"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/208805445464168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":948,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":209177951621352,"gmtCreate":1692104518755,"gmtModify":1692104520010,"author":{"id":"3474602632404371","authorId":"3474602632404371","name":"Gordon9375","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afc990982177f6f3717749c241340c7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474602632404371","idStr":"3474602632404371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209177951621352","repostId":"209165788987464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":209165788987464,"gmtCreate":1692101502231,"gmtModify":1692101512057,"author":{"id":"3575872801573742","authorId":"3575872801573742","name":"窝轮女神Fifi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd5cec26aa0c03c7e4a623ee5f49f8c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575872801573742","idStr":"3575872801573742"},"themes":[],"title":"【财报解读】Sea Q2每股收益与销售额均未达预期 盘前暴跌","htmlText":"前言： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> 是一家互联网和移动平台公司，致力于提供在线游戏服务。 公司通过以下业务部门运营： 1，数字娱乐业务部门： 可通过游戏论坛，群组语音聊天，直播以及Garena移动应用程序和桌面应用程序上的其他用户社交功能来访问与游戏相关的内容。 2，电子商务业务部门： 通过Shopee移动应用程序和连接买卖双方的网站来管理第三方市场。 3，数字金融服务业务部门包括为个人和企业提供的金融服务，包括通过AirPay移动应用程序和手机或计算机上的AirPay柜台应用程序提供的电子钱包和支付服务。 第二季度实现营收30.96亿美元，前值为29.43亿美元，预期值为34.2亿美元，比市场预期低9.47%；每股收益为0.54美元，前值为-1.03美元，预期值为0.69美元，比市场预期低21.74%。 每股收益为0.54美元，未达到0.69美元的预期，销售额为31.0亿美元，未达到34.2亿美元的预期。 财报一发，盘前股价即刻暴跌12.57% （截止发稿时） 正文： Sea 在第二季度的经营表现并未达到市场的预期，我们来具体分析一下。 （一）营收 Sea 在第二季度实现了30.96亿美元的营收，而前一个季度的营收为29.43亿美元。 虽然与前一季度相比有所增长，但其营收低于市场的预期值34.2亿美元，缺口为9.47%。 （二）每股收益 从每股收益来看，Sea从前一季度的-1.03美元增长到了0.54美元。 这意味着公司已经从亏损转为盈利。但是，这个盈利数据仍然低于市场的预期0.69美元，差距达到了21.74%。 （三）销售额 销售额达到了31.0亿美元，也同样低于市场的预期34.2亿美元。 （四）目前公司估值处于历史绝对低位 Q2业绩一公布，盘前股价立刻暴跌12.57%。 股价的大幅下跌反映了投","listText":"前言： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> 是一家互联网和移动平台公司，致力于提供在线游戏服务。 公司通过以下业务部门运营： 1，数字娱乐业务部门： 可通过游戏论坛，群组语音聊天，直播以及Garena移动应用程序和桌面应用程序上的其他用户社交功能来访问与游戏相关的内容。 2，电子商务业务部门： 通过Shopee移动应用程序和连接买卖双方的网站来管理第三方市场。 3，数字金融服务业务部门包括为个人和企业提供的金融服务，包括通过AirPay移动应用程序和手机或计算机上的AirPay柜台应用程序提供的电子钱包和支付服务。 第二季度实现营收30.96亿美元，前值为29.43亿美元，预期值为34.2亿美元，比市场预期低9.47%；每股收益为0.54美元，前值为-1.03美元，预期值为0.69美元，比市场预期低21.74%。 每股收益为0.54美元，未达到0.69美元的预期，销售额为31.0亿美元，未达到34.2亿美元的预期。 财报一发，盘前股价即刻暴跌12.57% （截止发稿时） 正文： Sea 在第二季度的经营表现并未达到市场的预期，我们来具体分析一下。 （一）营收 Sea 在第二季度实现了30.96亿美元的营收，而前一个季度的营收为29.43亿美元。 虽然与前一季度相比有所增长，但其营收低于市场的预期值34.2亿美元，缺口为9.47%。 （二）每股收益 从每股收益来看，Sea从前一季度的-1.03美元增长到了0.54美元。 这意味着公司已经从亏损转为盈利。但是，这个盈利数据仍然低于市场的预期0.69美元，差距达到了21.74%。 （三）销售额 销售额达到了31.0亿美元，也同样低于市场的预期34.2亿美元。 （四）目前公司估值处于历史绝对低位 Q2业绩一公布，盘前股价立刻暴跌12.57%。 股价的大幅下跌反映了投","text":"前言： $Sea Ltd(SE)$ 是一家互联网和移动平台公司，致力于提供在线游戏服务。 公司通过以下业务部门运营： 1，数字娱乐业务部门： 可通过游戏论坛，群组语音聊天，直播以及Garena移动应用程序和桌面应用程序上的其他用户社交功能来访问与游戏相关的内容。 2，电子商务业务部门： 通过Shopee移动应用程序和连接买卖双方的网站来管理第三方市场。 3，数字金融服务业务部门包括为个人和企业提供的金融服务，包括通过AirPay移动应用程序和手机或计算机上的AirPay柜台应用程序提供的电子钱包和支付服务。 第二季度实现营收30.96亿美元，前值为29.43亿美元，预期值为34.2亿美元，比市场预期低9.47%；每股收益为0.54美元，前值为-1.03美元，预期值为0.69美元，比市场预期低21.74%。 每股收益为0.54美元，未达到0.69美元的预期，销售额为31.0亿美元，未达到34.2亿美元的预期。 财报一发，盘前股价即刻暴跌12.57% （截止发稿时） 正文： Sea 在第二季度的经营表现并未达到市场的预期，我们来具体分析一下。 （一）营收 Sea 在第二季度实现了30.96亿美元的营收，而前一个季度的营收为29.43亿美元。 虽然与前一季度相比有所增长，但其营收低于市场的预期值34.2亿美元，缺口为9.47%。 （二）每股收益 从每股收益来看，Sea从前一季度的-1.03美元增长到了0.54美元。 这意味着公司已经从亏损转为盈利。但是，这个盈利数据仍然低于市场的预期0.69美元，差距达到了21.74%。 （三）销售额 销售额达到了31.0亿美元，也同样低于市场的预期34.2亿美元。 （四）目前公司估值处于历史绝对低位 Q2业绩一公布，盘前股价立刻暴跌12.57%。 股价的大幅下跌反映了投","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/274877d0c497902540ccbc8d2e97ec16","width":"1125","height":"1611"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b28a7b9f081d5714029e160661bd9afd","width":"1125","height":"1180"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbbf04a201d0ff4ada317575c2a36e19","width":"2436","height":"1125"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209165788987464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625302729,"gmtCreate":1676074704661,"gmtModify":1676074706759,"author":{"id":"3474602632404371","authorId":"3474602632404371","name":"Gordon9375","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afc990982177f6f3717749c241340c7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474602632404371","idStr":"3474602632404371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625302729","repostId":"692689870","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":692689870,"gmtCreate":1640940393485,"gmtModify":1640943647847,"author":{"id":"3528966054893519","authorId":"3528966054893519","name":"小虎说英股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444754ad4cb8cbfaf0dcb4fb2537c79","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3528966054893519","idStr":"3528966054893519"},"themes":[],"title":"明星基金2021年总结：收益好好","htmlText":"2022年即将了来了[Cool]&nbsp;首先小虎说英股想对老虎社区朋友们表示感恩[Observation]&nbsp;小虎说英股很喜欢与大家交流并讨论全球好投资项目！感谢大家的支持，反馈，和长期支持。我们老虎原来2019年1月开通英股交易功能[Bless]&nbsp;&nbsp;快要三年了！[Sly]&nbsp;英股项目的成绩已经蛮不错的，有越来越多小虎们注意英股[Wow]&nbsp;每年的英股成交额一直在上涨[Onlooker]&nbsp;希望大家的英股投资回报率越来越好啊。小虎说英股祝大家新年快乐！万事如意！[Sly]&nbsp;虎年也快来了啊，对我们老虎社区的人很吉祥！[Observation]&nbsp;[Comfort]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;好好好2021年伦敦的明星基金给投资者良好投资回报&nbsp;最近越来越多小虎们开始投资伦敦明星基金，进行国际资产配置。大家请注意伦敦明星基金的交易方式跟股票一样。没有任何申购或赎回流程。三大热门明星基金如下：第一国际科技股基金SMT目前大家比较关注的基金是国际科技股基金<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMT.UK\">$SCOTTISH MORT(SMT.UK)$</a>&nbsp;“Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust“。该基220亿英镑资产金投资全球科技股票和私募股权。SMT是腾讯，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISE.UK\">$WISE PLC(WISE.UK)$</a>&nbsp;，美团，拼多多，特斯拉，蔚来，LILLIUM和SPACE X等等的老股东。目前在基金持有的总资产中，80%的资产是挂牌的股票，剩余20%是私募股权，如字节跳动（3.8亿","listText":"2022年即将了来了[Cool]&nbsp;首先小虎说英股想对老虎社区朋友们表示感恩[Observation]&nbsp;小虎说英股很喜欢与大家交流并讨论全球好投资项目！感谢大家的支持，反馈，和长期支持。我们老虎原来2019年1月开通英股交易功能[Bless]&nbsp;&nbsp;快要三年了！[Sly]&nbsp;英股项目的成绩已经蛮不错的，有越来越多小虎们注意英股[Wow]&nbsp;每年的英股成交额一直在上涨[Onlooker]&nbsp;希望大家的英股投资回报率越来越好啊。小虎说英股祝大家新年快乐！万事如意！[Sly]&nbsp;虎年也快来了啊，对我们老虎社区的人很吉祥！[Observation]&nbsp;[Comfort]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;好好好2021年伦敦的明星基金给投资者良好投资回报&nbsp;最近越来越多小虎们开始投资伦敦明星基金，进行国际资产配置。大家请注意伦敦明星基金的交易方式跟股票一样。没有任何申购或赎回流程。三大热门明星基金如下：第一国际科技股基金SMT目前大家比较关注的基金是国际科技股基金<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMT.UK\">$SCOTTISH MORT(SMT.UK)$</a>&nbsp;“Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust“。该基220亿英镑资产金投资全球科技股票和私募股权。SMT是腾讯，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISE.UK\">$WISE PLC(WISE.UK)$</a>&nbsp;，美团，拼多多，特斯拉，蔚来，LILLIUM和SPACE X等等的老股东。目前在基金持有的总资产中，80%的资产是挂牌的股票，剩余20%是私募股权，如字节跳动（3.8亿","text":"2022年即将了来了[Cool] 首先小虎说英股想对老虎社区朋友们表示感恩[Observation] 小虎说英股很喜欢与大家交流并讨论全球好投资项目！感谢大家的支持，反馈，和长期支持。我们老虎原来2019年1月开通英股交易功能[Bless] 快要三年了！[Sly] 英股项目的成绩已经蛮不错的，有越来越多小虎们注意英股[Wow] 每年的英股成交额一直在上涨[Onlooker] 希望大家的英股投资回报率越来越好啊。小虎说英股祝大家新年快乐！万事如意！[Sly] 虎年也快来了啊，对我们老虎社区的人很吉祥！[Observation] [Comfort] [Happy] 好好好2021年伦敦的明星基金给投资者良好投资回报 最近越来越多小虎们开始投资伦敦明星基金，进行国际资产配置。大家请注意伦敦明星基金的交易方式跟股票一样。没有任何申购或赎回流程。三大热门明星基金如下：第一国际科技股基金SMT目前大家比较关注的基金是国际科技股基金$SCOTTISH MORT(SMT.UK)$ “Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust“。该基220亿英镑资产金投资全球科技股票和私募股权。SMT是腾讯，$WISE PLC(WISE.UK)$ ，美团，拼多多，特斯拉，蔚来，LILLIUM和SPACE X等等的老股东。目前在基金持有的总资产中，80%的资产是挂牌的股票，剩余20%是私募股权，如字节跳动（3.8亿","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edc34e3b8983b93871472c56e522ceca","width":"577","height":"548"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6069cf18747252a09a1d76536a84e117","width":"546","height":"359"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9bbca121e5ac88e32441c4a45644902","width":"656","height":"466"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692689870","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626598076,"gmtCreate":1674399822995,"gmtModify":1674434110632,"author":{"id":"3474602632404371","authorId":"3474602632404371","name":"Gordon9375","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afc990982177f6f3717749c241340c7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474602632404371","idStr":"3474602632404371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$谷歌A(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a>关注一下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">$谷歌A(GOOGL)$&nbsp;</a>关注一下","text":"$谷歌A(GOOGL)$ 关注一下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96d74687f82ba1a1c22d4e3414816bc3","width":"1170","height":"2067"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626598076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626632456,"gmtCreate":1674095906275,"gmtModify":1674095907918,"author":{"id":"3474602632404371","authorId":"3474602632404371","name":"Gordon9375","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afc990982177f6f3717749c241340c7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474602632404371","idStr":"3474602632404371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626632456","repostId":"610007975","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":610007975,"gmtCreate":1648390243791,"gmtModify":1648447196191,"author":{"id":"3456099603258243","authorId":"3456099603258243","name":"阿浦美股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/510158cacb317df74e4b574d9bfe7f4a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3456099603258243","idStr":"3456099603258243"},"themes":[],"title":"菲利普莫里斯国际：很难不看好的潜力股 ！","htmlText":"如果我们的分析对您有启发,请您点赞支持。若有价值，请您转发给更多的朋友。期待您的评论或私信我吧，我们希望与您深度探讨。感谢您的关注与支持!01 公司简介① 概况菲利普莫里斯国际<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">$菲利普莫里斯(PM)$</a>&nbsp;是一家全球领先的国际烟草公司。从事卷烟、无烟产品、相关电子设备和配件以及其他含尼古丁产品的制造和销售，在美国以外的市场开展业务。旗下的烟草品牌万宝路全球销量第一、L&amp;M全球销量第三。并且菲利普莫里斯国际正在引领烟草行业的转型，推出“加热不燃烧”型IQOS ILUMA产品，推动无烟业务的发展，进一步转向更可持续的业务。资金来源——股息。菲利普莫里斯国际的主要资金来源来自子公司的股息的债务偿还。② 业务描述菲利普莫里斯国际通过六个分部来经营业务欧盟地区（EU）总部位于瑞士洛桑，覆盖所有欧盟国家以及瑞士、挪威、冰岛和英国东欧地区（EE）总部也设在洛桑，包括东南欧、中亚、乌克兰、以色列和俄罗斯中东和非洲地区（ME&amp;A）总部也设在洛桑，覆盖非洲大陆、中东、土耳其南亚及东南亚地区（S&amp;SA）总部设在香港，包括印度尼西亚、菲律宾和该地区的其他市场东亚及澳洲地区（EA&amp;A）总部亦设于香港，包括澳洲、日本、韩国、中国及该地区的其他市场，以及马来西亚及新加坡拉丁美洲和加拿大地区（LA&amp;C）总部位于纽约，覆盖南美洲大陆、中美洲、墨西哥、加勒比地区和加拿大③ 竞争菲利普莫里斯国际的竞争主要基于产品质量、品牌认知度、品牌忠诚度、品味、研发、创新、包装、客户服务、营销、广告和零售价格。竞争对手主要有三大国际烟草公司：英美烟草公司、日本烟草公司、帝国烟草公司；新市场进入者，特别是在产品创新方面；国有烟草企业，主要位于阿尔及利亚、埃及、中国、中国台湾、","listText":"如果我们的分析对您有启发,请您点赞支持。若有价值，请您转发给更多的朋友。期待您的评论或私信我吧，我们希望与您深度探讨。感谢您的关注与支持!01 公司简介① 概况菲利普莫里斯国际<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">$菲利普莫里斯(PM)$</a>&nbsp;是一家全球领先的国际烟草公司。从事卷烟、无烟产品、相关电子设备和配件以及其他含尼古丁产品的制造和销售，在美国以外的市场开展业务。旗下的烟草品牌万宝路全球销量第一、L&amp;M全球销量第三。并且菲利普莫里斯国际正在引领烟草行业的转型，推出“加热不燃烧”型IQOS ILUMA产品，推动无烟业务的发展，进一步转向更可持续的业务。资金来源——股息。菲利普莫里斯国际的主要资金来源来自子公司的股息的债务偿还。② 业务描述菲利普莫里斯国际通过六个分部来经营业务欧盟地区（EU）总部位于瑞士洛桑，覆盖所有欧盟国家以及瑞士、挪威、冰岛和英国东欧地区（EE）总部也设在洛桑，包括东南欧、中亚、乌克兰、以色列和俄罗斯中东和非洲地区（ME&amp;A）总部也设在洛桑，覆盖非洲大陆、中东、土耳其南亚及东南亚地区（S&amp;SA）总部设在香港，包括印度尼西亚、菲律宾和该地区的其他市场东亚及澳洲地区（EA&amp;A）总部亦设于香港，包括澳洲、日本、韩国、中国及该地区的其他市场，以及马来西亚及新加坡拉丁美洲和加拿大地区（LA&amp;C）总部位于纽约，覆盖南美洲大陆、中美洲、墨西哥、加勒比地区和加拿大③ 竞争菲利普莫里斯国际的竞争主要基于产品质量、品牌认知度、品牌忠诚度、品味、研发、创新、包装、客户服务、营销、广告和零售价格。竞争对手主要有三大国际烟草公司：英美烟草公司、日本烟草公司、帝国烟草公司；新市场进入者，特别是在产品创新方面；国有烟草企业，主要位于阿尔及利亚、埃及、中国、中国台湾、","text":"如果我们的分析对您有启发,请您点赞支持。若有价值，请您转发给更多的朋友。期待您的评论或私信我吧，我们希望与您深度探讨。感谢您的关注与支持!01 公司简介① 概况菲利普莫里斯国际$菲利普莫里斯(PM)$ 是一家全球领先的国际烟草公司。从事卷烟、无烟产品、相关电子设备和配件以及其他含尼古丁产品的制造和销售，在美国以外的市场开展业务。旗下的烟草品牌万宝路全球销量第一、L&M全球销量第三。并且菲利普莫里斯国际正在引领烟草行业的转型，推出“加热不燃烧”型IQOS ILUMA产品，推动无烟业务的发展，进一步转向更可持续的业务。资金来源——股息。菲利普莫里斯国际的主要资金来源来自子公司的股息的债务偿还。② 业务描述菲利普莫里斯国际通过六个分部来经营业务欧盟地区（EU）总部位于瑞士洛桑，覆盖所有欧盟国家以及瑞士、挪威、冰岛和英国东欧地区（EE）总部也设在洛桑，包括东南欧、中亚、乌克兰、以色列和俄罗斯中东和非洲地区（ME&A）总部也设在洛桑，覆盖非洲大陆、中东、土耳其南亚及东南亚地区（S&SA）总部设在香港，包括印度尼西亚、菲律宾和该地区的其他市场东亚及澳洲地区（EA&A）总部亦设于香港，包括澳洲、日本、韩国、中国及该地区的其他市场，以及马来西亚及新加坡拉丁美洲和加拿大地区（LA&C）总部位于纽约，覆盖南美洲大陆、中美洲、墨西哥、加勒比地区和加拿大③ 竞争菲利普莫里斯国际的竞争主要基于产品质量、品牌认知度、品牌忠诚度、品味、研发、创新、包装、客户服务、营销、广告和零售价格。竞争对手主要有三大国际烟草公司：英美烟草公司、日本烟草公司、帝国烟草公司；新市场进入者，特别是在产品创新方面；国有烟草企业，主要位于阿尔及利亚、埃及、中国、中国台湾、","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc472f280aec4b20884fe5bf94aabf3c","width":"584","height":"492"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bafec486a14b4c060fc08f567e37dea1","width":"632","height":"309"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abf5d8827dcbc042ff877cef1ee4baed","width":"632","height":"322"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610007975","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626632843,"gmtCreate":1674095618482,"gmtModify":1674095630509,"author":{"id":"3474602632404371","authorId":"3474602632404371","name":"Gordon9375","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afc990982177f6f3717749c241340c7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474602632404371","idStr":"3474602632404371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626632843","repostId":"431323","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":431323,"gmtCreate":1552729098958,"gmtModify":1704793304955,"author":{"id":"3453503901455855","authorId":"3453503901455855","name":"zxmzlp","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/13812f7e9a747eb2ec878987c2eb3860","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3453503901455855","idStr":"3453503901455855"},"themes":[],"title":"卡夫亨氏投资价值探讨","htmlText":"$卡夫亨氏(KHC)$ 卡夫亨氏公司是卡夫食品与亨氏合并的结果。北美地区第三大、世界第五大食品公司，目前公司股权分散，最大的股东是巴老公司持股成本100亿美元，持股27%（对应成本市值370亿左右），目前公司市值388亿。 公司股价走势如图：较18年4季度财报发布前已经下跌35% 第一部分：下跌的直接原因： 1、四季度卡夫亨氏调整后的每股盈利0.84美元，营收为68.9亿美元。业绩不及华尔街预估的0.94美元每股盈利和69.3亿美元营收。 2、将卡夫和奥斯卡梅耶品牌的商誉撇减了154亿美元 3、公司预计2019年税息前盈利扣非将在63亿至65亿美元之间，较去年的水平下降8.24%，远低于华尔街普遍预期的75亿美元。 4、将股息从每年2.50美元下调至每股0.40美元或每年1.60美元，下降幅度36%。 5、公司预期19年1季度净利润将下滑10%。 下面我们结合公司以往年报和主要财务信息详细分析背后的原因，探寻公司能否重拾增长。（图：）美股上市的几家食品公司18年主要数据对比（其中红**域为计算后的结果） 1、应收利润下降的原因，从年报应可以收增幅0.1%、成本增幅5.6%，可以直接看出利润下滑主要受成本上升导致（成本上升主要有财务成本上升，和通胀导致原料成本上升后续详细分析）；应收下跌主要由于：排除大宗商品通胀的前提下，产品在18年四季度年降价了1.6%，其中美国部分影响占比0.8%，国际占比0.8%（汇率因素影响，随着美国加息减速，或者停止，外汇负面影响因素将终结）。 而2018年下半年，美国的定价下降了2.4个百分点，主要商品成本下降了1个百分点。因此，美国下半年的定价（扣除主要大宗商品影响）下降了1.4%。其中保护天然奶酪业务，通过缩小于其他私人品牌价格差距选择降价，影响到整体定价下降0.4%。剩下的1%分是机会主义的价格投资和我们的创新渠道的支持的结合降低产品定","listText":"$卡夫亨氏(KHC)$ 卡夫亨氏公司是卡夫食品与亨氏合并的结果。北美地区第三大、世界第五大食品公司，目前公司股权分散，最大的股东是巴老公司持股成本100亿美元，持股27%（对应成本市值370亿左右），目前公司市值388亿。 公司股价走势如图：较18年4季度财报发布前已经下跌35% 第一部分：下跌的直接原因： 1、四季度卡夫亨氏调整后的每股盈利0.84美元，营收为68.9亿美元。业绩不及华尔街预估的0.94美元每股盈利和69.3亿美元营收。 2、将卡夫和奥斯卡梅耶品牌的商誉撇减了154亿美元 3、公司预计2019年税息前盈利扣非将在63亿至65亿美元之间，较去年的水平下降8.24%，远低于华尔街普遍预期的75亿美元。 4、将股息从每年2.50美元下调至每股0.40美元或每年1.60美元，下降幅度36%。 5、公司预期19年1季度净利润将下滑10%。 下面我们结合公司以往年报和主要财务信息详细分析背后的原因，探寻公司能否重拾增长。（图：）美股上市的几家食品公司18年主要数据对比（其中红**域为计算后的结果） 1、应收利润下降的原因，从年报应可以收增幅0.1%、成本增幅5.6%，可以直接看出利润下滑主要受成本上升导致（成本上升主要有财务成本上升，和通胀导致原料成本上升后续详细分析）；应收下跌主要由于：排除大宗商品通胀的前提下，产品在18年四季度年降价了1.6%，其中美国部分影响占比0.8%，国际占比0.8%（汇率因素影响，随着美国加息减速，或者停止，外汇负面影响因素将终结）。 而2018年下半年，美国的定价下降了2.4个百分点，主要商品成本下降了1个百分点。因此，美国下半年的定价（扣除主要大宗商品影响）下降了1.4%。其中保护天然奶酪业务，通过缩小于其他私人品牌价格差距选择降价，影响到整体定价下降0.4%。剩下的1%分是机会主义的价格投资和我们的创新渠道的支持的结合降低产品定","text":"$卡夫亨氏(KHC)$ 卡夫亨氏公司是卡夫食品与亨氏合并的结果。北美地区第三大、世界第五大食品公司，目前公司股权分散，最大的股东是巴老公司持股成本100亿美元，持股27%（对应成本市值370亿左右），目前公司市值388亿。 公司股价走势如图：较18年4季度财报发布前已经下跌35% 第一部分：下跌的直接原因： 1、四季度卡夫亨氏调整后的每股盈利0.84美元，营收为68.9亿美元。业绩不及华尔街预估的0.94美元每股盈利和69.3亿美元营收。 2、将卡夫和奥斯卡梅耶品牌的商誉撇减了154亿美元 3、公司预计2019年税息前盈利扣非将在63亿至65亿美元之间，较去年的水平下降8.24%，远低于华尔街普遍预期的75亿美元。 4、将股息从每年2.50美元下调至每股0.40美元或每年1.60美元，下降幅度36%。 5、公司预期19年1季度净利润将下滑10%。 下面我们结合公司以往年报和主要财务信息详细分析背后的原因，探寻公司能否重拾增长。（图：）美股上市的几家食品公司18年主要数据对比（其中红**域为计算后的结果） 1、应收利润下降的原因，从年报应可以收增幅0.1%、成本增幅5.6%，可以直接看出利润下滑主要受成本上升导致（成本上升主要有财务成本上升，和通胀导致原料成本上升后续详细分析）；应收下跌主要由于：排除大宗商品通胀的前提下，产品在18年四季度年降价了1.6%，其中美国部分影响占比0.8%，国际占比0.8%（汇率因素影响，随着美国加息减速，或者停止，外汇负面影响因素将终结）。 而2018年下半年，美国的定价下降了2.4个百分点，主要商品成本下降了1个百分点。因此，美国下半年的定价（扣除主要大宗商品影响）下降了1.4%。其中保护天然奶酪业务，通过缩小于其他私人品牌价格差距选择降价，影响到整体定价下降0.4%。剩下的1%分是机会主义的价格投资和我们的创新渠道的支持的结合降低产品定","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/849cd87cf7e6c28a2a27b0b52557df17"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca725b82eea23868bf63a27a987453f"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/776fddb46aa99a58641463d3ebb15e93"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/431323","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621405211,"gmtCreate":1672414750633,"gmtModify":1672414752305,"author":{"id":"3474602632404371","authorId":"3474602632404371","name":"Gordon9375","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afc990982177f6f3717749c241340c7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474602632404371","idStr":"3474602632404371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621405211","repostId":"621551712","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":621551712,"gmtCreate":1672398624737,"gmtModify":1672399057013,"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"亏小赚大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3463446769405484","idStr":"3463446769405484"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$&nbsp;</a> 从最新的文件来看，作出了一些改变： 1.大陆新用户，禁止开户，以后这一块彻底为0 2.大陆老用户，禁止通过大陆银行直接或间接的入金，但仍然可以正常交易、可以使用与大陆无关的境外资金入金 总的来看，与去年的文件没有太大区别，但说的更详细了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2303(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUTU\">$富途控股(FUTU)$&nbsp;</a> 从最新的文件来看，作出了一些改变： 1.大陆新用户，禁止开户，以后这一块彻底为0 2.大陆老用户，禁止通过大陆银行直接或间接的入金，但仍然可以正常交易、可以使用与大陆无关的境外资金入金 总的来看，与去年的文件没有太大区别，但说的更详细了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2303(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a>","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ $富途控股(FUTU)$ 从最新的文件来看，作出了一些改变： 1.大陆新用户，禁止开户，以后这一块彻底为0 2.大陆老用户，禁止通过大陆银行直接或间接的入金，但仍然可以正常交易、可以使用与大陆无关的境外资金入金 总的来看，与去年的文件没有太大区别，但说的更详细了。 $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2303(NQmain)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d89896296fe4970655b6586be0a3598","width":"1080","height":"1567"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621551712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629929393,"gmtCreate":1670221789312,"gmtModify":1670221790973,"author":{"id":"3474602632404371","authorId":"3474602632404371","name":"Gordon9375","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6afc990982177f6f3717749c241340c7","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3474602632404371","idStr":"3474602632404371"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629929393","repostId":"629081652","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629081652,"gmtCreate":1670053945976,"gmtModify":1670054197466,"author":{"id":"236893819455216","authorId":"236893819455216","name":"Gentle麦克斯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b4fb5bfe7e696b8a12af76d618e75a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"236893819455216","idStr":"236893819455216"},"themes":[],"title":"2023年美股操作思路","htmlText":"2022年即将过去，对于今年来说， 赚钱效应是非常差的。全年屈指可数的小行情，持续性都不长。 在宏观层面来说，不确定因素太多，美国过去40年最高的通胀率以及40年最快的加息速度都发生在今年，以及美联储在鸽派与鹰派之间的摇摆态度， 都给市场增加了波动。 2023年依然面临较多的不确定性， 但是我们依旧可以根据现有信息以及历史规律，在不确定性中找到一些确定性，从而对于我们在未来一年的投资中有个整体的框架。 计划以外，我们还要根据变化的信息去调整观点，从而调整自己的策略。 这一点非常重要，不可抱着一只股票不动， 任他山河变幻，世事变迁。 有些行业，有些公司的生命也许等不到周期轮回的那一天。这才是投资过程中最难的部分。 譬如：我曾经在阿里200块的时候，看好<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;平台化的竞争力，然后在短短一年多的时间，外部环境发生了巨大变化，中美审计问题，反垄断监管等等， 如果观点不改变，不重新评估，结局就不美丽了。而到现平台型中概股在经历极端的回调后，结合监管等的尘埃落定，调整评估标准，从成长股的逻辑切换到价值股的投资逻辑，会发现这些公司的投资价值又来了。 所以我认为了解宏观环境的周期位置是放在投资的第一位，这是战略， 挑选个股以及买卖策略，那是战术。 只有把握战略方向，才能指导战术方针。 所以我们先来谈谈2023年的宏观环境，可以用三个词来主要概括明年我们要关注的美股宏观环境： 通胀， 加息， 衰退 11月经历了美联储议息会议后鲍威尔的鹰派言论：加息的终点会更高，更持久。而后指数大幅下跌。 又在10月CPI 数据出来后，市场发现通胀比预期低，预计美联储会放缓加息，又开始反弹， 同时美联储多位官员表示加息速度将放缓。 发现没： 连美联储官员都是边走边看，","listText":"2022年即将过去，对于今年来说， 赚钱效应是非常差的。全年屈指可数的小行情，持续性都不长。 在宏观层面来说，不确定因素太多，美国过去40年最高的通胀率以及40年最快的加息速度都发生在今年，以及美联储在鸽派与鹰派之间的摇摆态度， 都给市场增加了波动。 2023年依然面临较多的不确定性， 但是我们依旧可以根据现有信息以及历史规律，在不确定性中找到一些确定性，从而对于我们在未来一年的投资中有个整体的框架。 计划以外，我们还要根据变化的信息去调整观点，从而调整自己的策略。 这一点非常重要，不可抱着一只股票不动， 任他山河变幻，世事变迁。 有些行业，有些公司的生命也许等不到周期轮回的那一天。这才是投资过程中最难的部分。 譬如：我曾经在阿里200块的时候，看好<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;平台化的竞争力，然后在短短一年多的时间，外部环境发生了巨大变化，中美审计问题，反垄断监管等等， 如果观点不改变，不重新评估，结局就不美丽了。而到现平台型中概股在经历极端的回调后，结合监管等的尘埃落定，调整评估标准，从成长股的逻辑切换到价值股的投资逻辑，会发现这些公司的投资价值又来了。 所以我认为了解宏观环境的周期位置是放在投资的第一位，这是战略， 挑选个股以及买卖策略，那是战术。 只有把握战略方向，才能指导战术方针。 所以我们先来谈谈2023年的宏观环境，可以用三个词来主要概括明年我们要关注的美股宏观环境： 通胀， 加息， 衰退 11月经历了美联储议息会议后鲍威尔的鹰派言论：加息的终点会更高，更持久。而后指数大幅下跌。 又在10月CPI 数据出来后，市场发现通胀比预期低，预计美联储会放缓加息，又开始反弹， 同时美联储多位官员表示加息速度将放缓。 发现没： 连美联储官员都是边走边看，","text":"2022年即将过去，对于今年来说， 赚钱效应是非常差的。全年屈指可数的小行情，持续性都不长。 在宏观层面来说，不确定因素太多，美国过去40年最高的通胀率以及40年最快的加息速度都发生在今年，以及美联储在鸽派与鹰派之间的摇摆态度， 都给市场增加了波动。 2023年依然面临较多的不确定性， 但是我们依旧可以根据现有信息以及历史规律，在不确定性中找到一些确定性，从而对于我们在未来一年的投资中有个整体的框架。 计划以外，我们还要根据变化的信息去调整观点，从而调整自己的策略。 这一点非常重要，不可抱着一只股票不动， 任他山河变幻，世事变迁。 有些行业，有些公司的生命也许等不到周期轮回的那一天。这才是投资过程中最难的部分。 譬如：我曾经在阿里200块的时候，看好$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 平台化的竞争力，然后在短短一年多的时间，外部环境发生了巨大变化，中美审计问题，反垄断监管等等， 如果观点不改变，不重新评估，结局就不美丽了。而到现平台型中概股在经历极端的回调后，结合监管等的尘埃落定，调整评估标准，从成长股的逻辑切换到价值股的投资逻辑，会发现这些公司的投资价值又来了。 所以我认为了解宏观环境的周期位置是放在投资的第一位，这是战略， 挑选个股以及买卖策略，那是战术。 只有把握战略方向，才能指导战术方针。 所以我们先来谈谈2023年的宏观环境，可以用三个词来主要概括明年我们要关注的美股宏观环境： 通胀， 加息， 衰退 11月经历了美联储议息会议后鲍威尔的鹰派言论：加息的终点会更高，更持久。而后指数大幅下跌。 又在10月CPI 数据出来后，市场发现通胀比预期低，预计美联储会放缓加息，又开始反弹， 同时美联储多位官员表示加息速度将放缓。 发现没： 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