小布同学的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小布同学

小布同学

心外无物

IP属地：江苏

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0主题

0勋章

10-29

$名创优品(09896)$ 名创玛特+永辉山姆持续看好。翻倍至少。

2023-06-06

$珍酒李渡(06979)$ 本来想顶格打新。还好只买了4000股。不然直接被清盘了

2023-04-27

$珍酒李渡(06979)$ 李渡我喝过好几次。媲美青花郎。

2022-12-05

$RLX科技(RLX)$ 十倍股。燥起来。

2022-11-01

$携程网(TCOM)$

2022-07-24

有啥影响

美联储今年要亏6700亿是怎么回事？

2022-06-30

$能链智电(NAAS)$交易量35w美元，这是上了个寂寞么？

2022-05-23

直接进粉单市场了。不是私有化退市。

滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震

2022-04-05

$滴滴(DIDI)$滴滴股东没有脊梁骨么？大盘掉1.7%，滴滴掉10%。

2022-03-28

$滴滴(DIDI)$滴滴都要造车了。买呀，白菜价[开心]

2022-02-09

$长城汽车(02333)$都是谁在抛售？连续资金流出

2022-01-31

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$相较而言，B站的新年晚会也太好看～

2022-01-21

$9618.SPO(9618.SPO)$tiger 又出低级愚蠢的错误。吓死个人。

2022-01-14

美团已经成为中国新基建

饿了么、美团胜负已分？

2022-01-07

600亿的拼多多，哪里找？

2022-01-06

$理想汽车(LI)$北京两会提到重点建设理想汽车。腾飞中的理想！

2021-02-10

这是要问米粉提供证券服务

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-02

主要是产能的问题。

交付量不及对手理想汽车盘前下跌2.2%

2021-01-04

$理想汽车(LI)$我来晒个单～

2021-01-02

$理想汽车(LI)$在买理想股票后，我成为理想车主。

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李渡我喝过好几次。媲美青花郎。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658826495","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629946774,"gmtCreate":1670232457398,"gmtModify":1670232458312,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$&nbsp;</a>十倍股。燥起来。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">$RLX科技(RLX)$&nbsp;</a>十倍股。燥起来。","text":"$RLX科技(RLX)$ 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16:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储今年要亏6700亿是怎么回事？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169198595","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着美债利率飙升，美联储持债账户大幅浮亏，美联储亏了要怎么办？作为实施货币政策的一部分，美联储在公开市场操作账户 (SOMA) 中持有国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS)。这些证券的市值会随着利率的","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>随着美债利率飙升，美联储持债账户大幅浮亏，美联储亏了要怎么办？</blockquote><p>作为实施货币政策的一部分，美联储在公开市场操作账户 (SOMA) 中持有国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS)。<b>这些证券的市值会随着利率的变化而波动。</b></p><p>今年以来，持续的通胀压力和美联储快速加息，短期内大幅降低了美联储所持证券的市场价值，美联储的净收入也可能出现亏损。</p><p>根据预测2022年底，美联储SOMA账户中的亏损头寸将达到最高约6700亿美元，其向美国财政部的缴款也将因美联储的亏损暂停三年。</p><p>作为美国，甚至是全球流动性的中心，美联储的盈亏机制到底是怎么回事？</p><p>Alyssa Anderson、Dave Na、Bernd Schlusche和Zeynep Senyuz等，在近期发表美联储工作论文《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析，第 1 部分：背景和历史视角》《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析，第 2 部分：替代利率路径下的预测 》对此进行了详细的阐述。</p><p><b>SOMA投资组合的盈亏头寸，一季度亏了3300亿美元？</b></p><p>SOMA投资组合的盈亏头寸是指，其持有证券的市场价值与摊余成本之间的差额。<b>实际上属于未实现损益范畴（浮盈、浮亏），除非美联储即时抛售。</b></p><p>美联储按市场价值购买证券时（通常高于或低于其面值），会按购买价格和票面价值之间的差额，在证券的存续期内进行摊销。证券的摊余成本即购买价格减去已确认的溢价或折价金额，并最终收敛于到期时的面值。</p><p>SOMA持有国债和机构MBS期间，这些证券的市值会随着利率上升或下降而变化。<b>当利率上升时，证券的市值下跌，市值低于摊余成本，就导致浮亏；当利率下降时，市值高于摊余成本，则导致浮盈。</b></p><p>利率与未实现盈亏之间呈显著的反比关系。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce6ebfef0b6ca09f4bbbf152b7cd18a8\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>浮动盈亏的规模取决于两个因素。一个是SOMA投资组合的规模，另一个是利率的变化。</b>在全球金融危机后的几年中，受历史低利率驱动，SOMA投资组合处于浮盈头寸。在2013年“缩减恐慌”期间国债收益率急剧上升，短暂转为浮亏。这一状况在2018年初再次出现。</p><p>2020年新冠疫情爆发，美联储迅速将美国国债收益率推至创纪录的低水平。当年SOMA投资组合的浮盈超过4000亿美元峰值。</p><p>2022年3月，美联储结束了资产购买开始提高联邦基金利率的目标范围。10年期美国国债收益率比去年同期上涨约60个基点，SOMA投资组合再度出现浮亏。市值低于摊余成本高达到3300亿美元，约占总资产的4%。</p><p>其次当前浮动亏损的规模明显高于以往，是因为疫情以来，SOMA购买的证券规模空前扩张所致。SOMA 投资组合的规模两年内翻了一番多，从疫情前的约4万亿美元增加到2022年3月资产购买结束时的约8.5万亿美元。</p><p><b>什么决定了美联储的收入以及如何向财政部缴款？</b></p><p>美联储的净收入主要取决于其在SOMA投资组合中持有的证券所产生的利息收入与其负债相关的利息支出之间的差额。利息收入还包含其他资产的收益，例如回购协议、贴现窗口贷款以及其他信贷和流动性工具，但这些与SOMA投资组合中的国债和机构MBS持有的收益相比，可以说是微不足道。</p><p>在支出方面，美联储对一些负债项目支付利息，例如准备金余额和隔夜逆回购协议 (ON RRP) 工具。美联储将其所有净收入，在扣除运营成本、股息支付以及维持《联邦储备法》要求的盈余所需的任何金额之后，汇入美国财政部。</p><p>美联储的利息收入和支出都会随着政策利率的变化而波动。因此，美联储的收入会受到利率风险的影响。<b>在收入方面，利息收入对政策利率的变化反应缓慢。</b>因为只有当美联储对到期证券进行再投资并购买新的美国国债时，更高的利率才会导致更高的利息收入。相比之下<b>在支出方面，利息费用通过管理利率直接与政策利率挂钩，因此会根据政策利率的变化迅速调整。</b></p><p>负债结构的变化也使得利息支出比以前更容易受到利率变化的影响。准备金和ON RRP等短期有息负债，在美联储总负债中的份额已从2020年初的不到一半增加到2022年3月的约三分之二。从而使得净收入受到利率上升的负面影响更大。</p><p>而SOMA 投资组合的浮动损益不会直接影响美联储的净收入。因为单个证券的市场价值在接近到期时会收敛到其面值。</p><p><b>只有卖出证券，浮动损益才会变成实现的收益或损失，直接影响美联储的净收入。</b><b><u>最典型的行为可能就是主动缩表。</u></b></p><p>美联储的净收入以及向美国财政部的缴款多年来一直在波动，但始终保持正值。新冠疫情爆发之后，联邦基金利率大幅下调，利息费用下降。与此同时，美联储在大量购买美国国债和机构MBS，利息收入显着增加。于是，美联储向美国财政部的缴款在过去两年几乎翻了一番，从2019年的约550亿美元上升到2021年创纪录的1090亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0975c4d06f4979dd770621d3abf8b013\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>随着货币政策继续收紧，美联储净收入存在暂时转为亏损的风险，短期内向美国财政部的缴款则可能暂停。</p><p><b>SOMA浮动损益、美联储收入和财政部缴款的预测</b></p><p>Alyssa Anderson等在《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析》一文中，围绕与FOMC与会者的经济预测摘要 (SEP) 一致的基线路径，从 FRB/US 模型的随机模拟中生成联邦基金利率、10 年期国债收益率，并对SOMA 投资组合的浮动损益、美联储收入和上缴国库资产进行预测。</p><p><b>1)联邦基金利率和10年期国债收益率预测</b></p><p>从随机模拟中获得联邦基金利率和10年期国债收益率及相关置信区间。基线水平下，联邦基金利率急剧上升，然后略有回落并稳定在2.5%左右。10年期美国国债收益率在短期内大幅上涨，并稳定在3.5%左右。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb49aec91feef163d937a6782947a8cd\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2）美联储资产负债表预测</b></p><p>基于上述利率路径，本文对美联储的资产负债表、收入以及SOMA浮动损益进行预测。同时预测也是基于美联储缩减资产负债表的政策框架，假设缩减路径与FOMC在 2022年5月FOMC会议上发布的“缩减美联储资产负债表规模的计划”一致。不过，美联储资产负债表的演变将受到经济和政策未来走向高度不确定性的影响。</p><p>在基线路径下，SOMA持有的资产从2022年的8.5万亿美元下降到2024年缩表结束时的6.3万亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed652ef3c280966d467fc5e55f9912e3\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3）美联储收入、上缴财政部、递延资产预测</b></p><p>鉴于近期和预期的利率上升，汇款预计将在一段时间内降至零，递延资产（代表在向财政部恢复缴款之前需要实现抵补亏损的未来净收入金额）将记录在美联储的资产负债表。</p><p>在基线路径下，美联储缩表期间，利息收入将在短期内下降，而利息支出将随着准备金和其他美联储负债利率的增加而上升，从而导致暂时的净收入为负。上缴财政部将暂停三年。递延资产达到约600亿美元的峰值，但其尾部这些预测中的风险（由深蓝色区域的上边缘表示）表明递延资产可能高达约1800亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdd9ccdf4aabac6eb4a81ca810939563\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef527b225605a789e8c97b1cdfc7a11c\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4）SOMA投资组合浮动损益的预测</b></p><p>正如在联邦储备银行合并季度财务报告中公布的那样，截至 2022 年第一季度末，SOMA 投资组合的未实现亏损为3300亿美元，约占投资组合面值的4%。如图5所示，随着利率进一步上升，这一浮动亏损头寸将变得更大。根据基线预测到2022年底，浮动亏损头寸将达到最高约6700亿美元，占投资组合面值的8%左右。但如果利率远高于基线，浮动亏损头寸变化的范围会相当大。如代表尾部风险事件的90%置信区间的下沿，2023年浮动损失的峰值约为1.1万亿美元，约占投资组合面值的 16%。</p><p>但随着当前持有的证券到期，浮动亏损头寸将随着时间的推移收敛于到期时的面值而消失。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/738cb5ee3d6e40394ed40337b51f0c2c\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>当然根据国会的授权，美联储的任务是实现就业最大化和价格稳定。既不是实现盈利也不是避免亏损。所以，即便利率上升对美联储的净收入以及SOMA投资组合的浮动盈亏有负面作用，也不会影响美联储执行货币政策或履行相关职责。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储今年要亏6700亿是怎么回事？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储今年要亏6700亿是怎么回事？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-07-24 16:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着美债利率飙升，美联储持债账户大幅浮亏，美联储亏了要怎么办？作为实施货币政策的一部分，美联储在公开市场操作账户 (SOMA) 中持有国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS)。这些证券的市值会随着利率的变化而波动。今年以来，持续的通胀压力和美联储快速加息，短期内大幅降低了美联储所持证券的市场价值，美联储的净收入也可能出现亏损。根据预测2022年底，美联储SOMA账户中的亏损头寸将达到最高约6700...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169198595","content_text":"随着美债利率飙升，美联储持债账户大幅浮亏，美联储亏了要怎么办？作为实施货币政策的一部分，美联储在公开市场操作账户 (SOMA) 中持有国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券 (MBS)。这些证券的市值会随着利率的变化而波动。今年以来，持续的通胀压力和美联储快速加息，短期内大幅降低了美联储所持证券的市场价值，美联储的净收入也可能出现亏损。根据预测2022年底，美联储SOMA账户中的亏损头寸将达到最高约6700亿美元，其向美国财政部的缴款也将因美联储的亏损暂停三年。作为美国，甚至是全球流动性的中心，美联储的盈亏机制到底是怎么回事？Alyssa Anderson、Dave Na、Bernd Schlusche和Zeynep Senyuz等，在近期发表美联储工作论文《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析，第 1 部分：背景和历史视角》《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析，第 2 部分：替代利率路径下的预测 》对此进行了详细的阐述。SOMA投资组合的盈亏头寸，一季度亏了3300亿美元？SOMA投资组合的盈亏头寸是指，其持有证券的市场价值与摊余成本之间的差额。实际上属于未实现损益范畴（浮盈、浮亏），除非美联储即时抛售。美联储按市场价值购买证券时（通常高于或低于其面值），会按购买价格和票面价值之间的差额，在证券的存续期内进行摊销。证券的摊余成本即购买价格减去已确认的溢价或折价金额，并最终收敛于到期时的面值。SOMA持有国债和机构MBS期间，这些证券的市值会随着利率上升或下降而变化。当利率上升时，证券的市值下跌，市值低于摊余成本，就导致浮亏；当利率下降时，市值高于摊余成本，则导致浮盈。利率与未实现盈亏之间呈显著的反比关系。浮动盈亏的规模取决于两个因素。一个是SOMA投资组合的规模，另一个是利率的变化。在全球金融危机后的几年中，受历史低利率驱动，SOMA投资组合处于浮盈头寸。在2013年“缩减恐慌”期间国债收益率急剧上升，短暂转为浮亏。这一状况在2018年初再次出现。2020年新冠疫情爆发，美联储迅速将美国国债收益率推至创纪录的低水平。当年SOMA投资组合的浮盈超过4000亿美元峰值。2022年3月，美联储结束了资产购买开始提高联邦基金利率的目标范围。10年期美国国债收益率比去年同期上涨约60个基点，SOMA投资组合再度出现浮亏。市值低于摊余成本高达到3300亿美元，约占总资产的4%。其次当前浮动亏损的规模明显高于以往，是因为疫情以来，SOMA购买的证券规模空前扩张所致。SOMA 投资组合的规模两年内翻了一番多，从疫情前的约4万亿美元增加到2022年3月资产购买结束时的约8.5万亿美元。什么决定了美联储的收入以及如何向财政部缴款？美联储的净收入主要取决于其在SOMA投资组合中持有的证券所产生的利息收入与其负债相关的利息支出之间的差额。利息收入还包含其他资产的收益，例如回购协议、贴现窗口贷款以及其他信贷和流动性工具，但这些与SOMA投资组合中的国债和机构MBS持有的收益相比，可以说是微不足道。在支出方面，美联储对一些负债项目支付利息，例如准备金余额和隔夜逆回购协议 (ON RRP) 工具。美联储将其所有净收入，在扣除运营成本、股息支付以及维持《联邦储备法》要求的盈余所需的任何金额之后，汇入美国财政部。美联储的利息收入和支出都会随着政策利率的变化而波动。因此，美联储的收入会受到利率风险的影响。在收入方面，利息收入对政策利率的变化反应缓慢。因为只有当美联储对到期证券进行再投资并购买新的美国国债时，更高的利率才会导致更高的利息收入。相比之下在支出方面，利息费用通过管理利率直接与政策利率挂钩，因此会根据政策利率的变化迅速调整。负债结构的变化也使得利息支出比以前更容易受到利率变化的影响。准备金和ON RRP等短期有息负债，在美联储总负债中的份额已从2020年初的不到一半增加到2022年3月的约三分之二。从而使得净收入受到利率上升的负面影响更大。而SOMA 投资组合的浮动损益不会直接影响美联储的净收入。因为单个证券的市场价值在接近到期时会收敛到其面值。只有卖出证券，浮动损益才会变成实现的收益或损失，直接影响美联储的净收入。最典型的行为可能就是主动缩表。美联储的净收入以及向美国财政部的缴款多年来一直在波动，但始终保持正值。新冠疫情爆发之后，联邦基金利率大幅下调，利息费用下降。与此同时，美联储在大量购买美国国债和机构MBS，利息收入显着增加。于是，美联储向美国财政部的缴款在过去两年几乎翻了一番，从2019年的约550亿美元上升到2021年创纪录的1090亿美元。随着货币政策继续收紧，美联储净收入存在暂时转为亏损的风险，短期内向美国财政部的缴款则可能暂停。SOMA浮动损益、美联储收入和财政部缴款的预测Alyssa Anderson等在《美联储资产负债表利率风险分析》一文中，围绕与FOMC与会者的经济预测摘要 (SEP) 一致的基线路径，从 FRB/US 模型的随机模拟中生成联邦基金利率、10 年期国债收益率，并对SOMA 投资组合的浮动损益、美联储收入和上缴国库资产进行预测。1)联邦基金利率和10年期国债收益率预测从随机模拟中获得联邦基金利率和10年期国债收益率及相关置信区间。基线水平下，联邦基金利率急剧上升，然后略有回落并稳定在2.5%左右。10年期美国国债收益率在短期内大幅上涨，并稳定在3.5%左右。2）美联储资产负债表预测基于上述利率路径，本文对美联储的资产负债表、收入以及SOMA浮动损益进行预测。同时预测也是基于美联储缩减资产负债表的政策框架，假设缩减路径与FOMC在 2022年5月FOMC会议上发布的“缩减美联储资产负债表规模的计划”一致。不过，美联储资产负债表的演变将受到经济和政策未来走向高度不确定性的影响。在基线路径下，SOMA持有的资产从2022年的8.5万亿美元下降到2024年缩表结束时的6.3万亿美元。3）美联储收入、上缴财政部、递延资产预测鉴于近期和预期的利率上升，汇款预计将在一段时间内降至零，递延资产（代表在向财政部恢复缴款之前需要实现抵补亏损的未来净收入金额）将记录在美联储的资产负债表。在基线路径下，美联储缩表期间，利息收入将在短期内下降，而利息支出将随着准备金和其他美联储负债利率的增加而上升，从而导致暂时的净收入为负。上缴财政部将暂停三年。递延资产达到约600亿美元的峰值，但其尾部这些预测中的风险（由深蓝色区域的上边缘表示）表明递延资产可能高达约1800亿美元。4）SOMA投资组合浮动损益的预测正如在联邦储备银行合并季度财务报告中公布的那样，截至 2022 年第一季度末，SOMA 投资组合的未实现亏损为3300亿美元，约占投资组合面值的4%。如图5所示，随着利率进一步上升，这一浮动亏损头寸将变得更大。根据基线预测到2022年底，浮动亏损头寸将达到最高约6700亿美元，占投资组合面值的8%左右。但如果利率远高于基线，浮动亏损头寸变化的范围会相当大。如代表尾部风险事件的90%置信区间的下沿，2023年浮动损失的峰值约为1.1万亿美元，约占投资组合面值的 16%。但随着当前持有的证券到期，浮动亏损头寸将随着时间的推移收敛于到期时的面值而消失。当然根据国会的授权，美联储的任务是实现就业最大化和价格稳定。既不是实现盈利也不是避免亏损。所以，即便利率上升对美联储的净收入以及SOMA投资组合的浮动盈亏有负面作用，也不会影响美联储执行货币政策或履行相关职责。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683746895,"gmtCreate":1656539066120,"gmtModify":1704865123438,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAAS\">$能链智电(NAAS)$</a>交易量35w美元，这是上了个寂寞么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAAS\">$能链智电(NAAS)$</a>交易量35w美元，这是上了个寂寞么？","text":"$能链智电(NAAS)$交易量35w美元，这是上了个寂寞么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683746895","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":614907173,"gmtCreate":1653312253392,"gmtModify":1653312253392,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"直接进粉单市场了。不是私有化退市。","listText":"直接进粉单市场了。不是私有化退市。","text":"直接进粉单市场了。不是私有化退市。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614907173","repostId":"1129159429","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129159429","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653309655,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129159429?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-23 20:40","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"滴滴确认将从美国退市！盘前股价巨震","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129159429","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月23日，滴滴今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c062b7fc0a9623a8268e61e51a67b\" tg-width=\"1805\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e6745f05a0bbf67daedcbcdbcf4997\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-23 20:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c062b7fc0a9623a8268e61e51a67b\" tg-width=\"1805\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e6745f05a0bbf67daedcbcdbcf4997\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129159429","content_text":"5月23日，滴滴今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619814680,"gmtCreate":1649174139098,"gmtModify":1649174139098,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>滴滴都要造车了。买呀，白菜价[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$滴滴(DIDI)$滴滴都要造车了。买呀，白菜价[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/610959988","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494576853520878","authorId":"3494576853520878","name":"韭菜灬无所畏惧","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f976de6d13e9e09c7f54556f3b0fbf5e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3494576853520878","authorIdStr":"3494576853520878"},"content":"亏的底裤都没啦 [喷血]","text":"亏的底裤都没啦 [喷血]","html":"亏的底裤都没啦 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18:05","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"饿了么、美团胜负已分？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150750118","media":"BT财经","summary":"饿了么与美团熬死其他对手之后成为“平分天下”的外卖双巨头，两者的较量从未停止过，但是现在饿了么频传裁员，而美团一路挺进本地生活。2022年1月初，市场报道称近期，阿里本地生活业务即将开启一轮大幅裁员，","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>饿了么与美团熬死其他对手之后成为“平分天下”的外卖双巨头，两者的较量从未停止过，但是现在饿了么频传裁员，而美团一路挺进本地生活。</blockquote><p>2022年1月初，市场报道称近期，阿里本地生活业务即将开启一轮大幅裁员，甚至还有饿了么员工确认了裁员说法，称月底业务调整已在发生。随后饿了么辟谣，称饿了么不存在裁员计划，并对下一步的发展制定了明确的规划。</p><p>回顾近10年外卖行业发展，从早期饿了么、到家美食会到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>外卖和美团，再到目前的饿了么和美团称霸外卖行业。伴随着互联网红利的逐渐消退，本身就依靠于互联网行业而发展壮大的外卖行业又将何去何从？本文将试图通过中国外卖行业概况、中国外卖市场竞争格局和中国外卖市场行业展望三个方面探讨外卖行业发展的前景。</p><p><b>外卖行业为什么突然崛起？</b></p><ul><li><p><b>外卖行业“三国杀”</b></p></li></ul><p>早期，外卖市场以电话外卖为主。餐饮商家为满足消费者的即时用餐需求，提供电话订餐服务。但受限于送餐的时效性和生活水平的缘故，电话订餐模式并未大面积普及。</p><p>随着互联网行业的迅速崛起，外卖行业依靠着互联网的便通，如零号线、到家美食会、点我吧、易淘食等竞争者逐渐增多，但是都较局限于当地且各竞争者之间差距不大，市场整体规模相对较小。而当时饿了么因为成立时间早发展速度快，成功的占据了当时市场较大份额。2011年，美团通过重点强调终端用户和店家的战略方针，以高效低费用的运营管理销售团队为辅，持续扩张外卖市场份额，并同时上线外卖APP，成功进军外卖市场。</p><p>2013年，资本开始大举进军外卖行业，各平台开启烧钱模式以期望迅速占领市场。最初饿了么通过巨额的补贴优惠手段扩展大学生市场，美团随后成立美团外卖。而后各平台为快速挤占餐饮外卖市场份额，进行低价竞争，通过高额补贴来吸引消费者和餐饮商户入驻。在2014年，美团开始重点布局三四线城市的市场战略。与此同时，百度下场外卖市场，并于当年年末成功占据接近10％的市场份额。2015年，阿里开始入局外卖行业，多次入股饿了么。自此，资本支持、烧钱模式下的外卖市场呈现出饿了么、美团和百度外卖三足鼎立之势，据统计三家平台市场份额占比为86.5％。</p><p>2017年8月，饿了么正式宣布收购百度外卖，中国外卖市场进入“2+N“的局面，饿了么和美团两者共占据外卖市场份额超过90％，剩余则被专属平台如宅急送、麦乐送等占据。</p><p>2018年4月，饿了么成为阿里全资子公司，被并入阿里本地生活服务体系。百度外卖并入阿里旗下，并易名为饿了么星选。同年9月，美团成功在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">香港交易所</a>敲钟完成IPO。</p><p>2021年7月，市场消息宣布字节跳动下属<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>成立心动外卖，相关外卖业务仍在测试阶段。</p><ul><li><p><b>外卖市场万亿规模</b></p></li></ul><p>随着经济发展和社会生活水平提高，中国餐饮行业市场规模增长迅速。根据国家统计局数据显示，2015年中国餐饮市场规模为3.2万亿元。2019年和2020年中国餐饮市场规模分别为4.7万亿和4万亿，同比下降已达到近17%，而2025年至2019年期间中国餐饮市场规模年复合增长率超过了9.5％。根据券商数据显示，2021年上半年，中国餐饮市场规模超过2万亿元，同比增长超过48％。根据券商数据显示，2021全年中国餐饮行业市场规模将恢复到4.7万亿元的水平。据辰智咨询与中国烹饪协会联合发布的《2021年中国餐饮大数据白皮书》预计，中国餐饮未来5年收入增速约为6％~8％，未来两年内有望突破5万亿。</p><p>中国餐饮外卖行业伴随着互联网行业的崛起，经过资本加持和市场潜力迅速挖掘。根据市场数据显示，外卖市场规模从2011年的216亿元增长至2020年的6646亿元，年复合增长率超过37％。2020年全年中国外卖行业渗透率超过16.5％。中国外卖消费者规模从2011年的0.63亿人次增长至2020年的4.56亿人次，年复合增长率达18.6％。</p><ul><li><p><b>外卖——线下三端网络</b></p></li></ul><p>外卖行业主要由线上平台、店家、骑手和终端用户四部分组成。在四方参与的商业模式下，线下三端网络密度效应（即网络的价值与连接用户数的平方（N^2）成正比关系）明显，店家、骑手和用户作为线下三个组成部分，通过线上平台构建起了商业闭环。终端用户通过线上平台获得店家选择、骑手达成快速配送；店家通过线上平台获得终端用户流量支撑和足够多的骑手保障高效配送；骑手通过线上平台获得订单配送以确保短时间内赚最多的钱。线上平台提供给线下三方的服务质量越高、可供选择的外卖商家越多，骑手配送速度越快，平台反馈速度越快，消费者的满意程度就越高，从而有更强烈的意愿点外卖。下单越多，商家盈利越多，骑手接到的送单越多，赚的钱越多。一方的效率高、满意度高、粘性高都会促进其他方的收益，正常运营过程中，会形成良性循环，相互促进，实现多方共赢。</p><p>线上外卖平台扮演连接、沟通、协调、配合、促进，同时又在其中盈利的关键核心角色，对接线下的商家、骑手和用户三方，基于平台自身具备的算法和人工智能等技术，匹配骑手、餐饮商户、消费者并计算三者之间的最短距离，实时追踪配送信息与订单，以最短时间和最低成本为消费者配送产品。平台的收入来源于佣金和广告：佣金：包括商户流水抽成、数据服务收费、物流配送收费及餐饮商户服务费用等；广告费：商户为了获取靠前排名带来的高曝光度与高流量，通过竞价购买特定排名位置。此外，APP界面上开放的广告位也会收取广告费。</p><p>外卖骑手负责外卖餐饮配送工作，是整个订单流程当中至关重要的一环，配送时间、效率与配送服务方式、态度等方面直接决定了用户体验，是平台配送触达到客户的最关键的体现。外卖骑手招聘门槛较低，无学历、专业等硬性要求，且薪资超过众多基础性岗位，因此吸纳了众多低学历、身体素质较好的中青年人群。外卖骑手分为两类：平台自建配送团队，该模式下外卖员经过适当培训且通常仅专注某一外卖平台外卖业务，时效性和服务质量更高，用户体验更好；众包平台共享骑手，即外卖平台共享外卖骑手，通常共享骑手的工作时间较为自由，未经过专业系统的培训且空闲时间少，配送所需时间长，时效性较差，用户体验相对较差。</p><p><b>饿了么美团两雄争霸</b></p><ul><li><p><b>饿了么、美团哪家强？</b></p></li></ul><p>根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>财报显示， 2021财年，阿里本地生活服务业务收入为315.37亿，同比增长24％。2022财年第1季度营业收入为87.57亿，2季度营业收入为95.13亿，同比增幅为8％，增速明显放缓。营业收入占比方面数据显示阿里本地生活业务在2022财年第2季度占总营业收入低于去年同期的5,7%。</p><p>根据券商数据显示，美团餐饮外卖业务在其2021年前三个季度期间，收入同比增长为116.8％、59％和28％，分别为206亿、231亿和265亿。日均交易笔数分别为3230万笔、3890万笔和4360万笔，同比增长分别为113.5％、58.9％和24.9％。</p><ul><li><p><b>饿了么市场份额和用户方面数据均弱于美团</b></p></li></ul><p>目前，饿了么和美团占据了中国外卖市场份额超过90％。券商数据显示，交易额方面：2020年2季度美团外卖交易额为饿了么的 2.7 倍，并且逐年挤压其他平台份额。餐饮外卖时长方面：美团占比 68.2％，饿了么占比 25.4％，其余平台占比 6.4％。用户粘性、日均启动数方面：美团外卖的用户粘性为 23.15％，而饿了么的粘性为 22.56％。人均单日使用次数和人均单日使用时长方面：饿了么人均单日使用次数和人均单日使用时长分别为8.73和5.54，美团人均单日使用次数和人均单日使用时长分别为11.87和5.8。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b9a2aba2c5e15acac907aff26f456e1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><ul><li><p><b>经营管理方面两者各有优势</b></p></li></ul><p>1、饿了么原高层已出局</p><p>2017 年，美团的股权结构是“同股不同权”，三位联合创始人团队共拥有 57.9％的投票权。在接受<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、红杉等资本介入时，管理层通过股权结构设计保留了创始团队的多数投票权，经营理念和策略具有连贯性。而饿了么2018年被阿里收购并入阿里本地服务体系后，管理团队发生了较大变动，阿里系空降高管层，饿了么包括创始人张旭豪在内的原管理团队相继出局。</p><p>2、美团强项——本地生活</p><p>阿里本地生活服务形成了口碑+饿了么+客如云+蜂鸟即配的“到店+外卖+餐饮+配送”的服务体系。在这个生态链中，饿了么被阿里收购后也承担了流量入口的职能，原有的餐饮产业垂直定位次于阿里的本地生活服务。</p><p>美团外卖依托于美团生态，打造以“吃”为核心的多元本地服务场景。美团的优势在于长期深耕于本地生活，更注重长期的发展趋势，满足用户生活中方方面面的需求，形成更强的协同效应。</p><p>3、饿了么杀招——红包奖励</p><p>饿了么年轻形象作为获客基础，品牌年轻化升级。饿了么用户集中在高线城市70％+的用户为一二线城市用户，新用户多为二线城市。2020 年邀请王一博作为代言人，品牌全面年轻化升级。2018 年 8 月联合淘宝，推出 88VIP 年度会员（淘气值满 1000 的用户售价 88 元/年，含年度会员，包含 4 张无门槛红包，不含加量红包）。其 88 会员所享受的优惠了力度进一步提高了饿了么的留客能力。</p><p>美团通过早期业务布局，在下沉市场的高占有率提供了相应的经验。在三四线城市的商家资源远远超过饿了么，低线城市渗透更高。2019 年 7 月联合腾讯视频、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIMA\">喜马拉雅</a>，推出月度会员（20 元/月，包含 5 张 5 元无门槛红包，在基础红包用完后可以以 8折购买加量红包），优惠力度强。一站式生活服务平台留存能力强。同时，美团通过布局外卖、到店、酒旅、网约车、共享单车、生鲜电商、共享充电宝等领域，打造全面的本地生活服务，实现用户的交叉导流，增加用户粘性。</p><p><b>外卖行业巨额补贴将不再出现</b></p><ul><li><p><b>未来平台的精细化运营</b></p></li></ul><p>由于资本介入和补贴大战导致的用户习惯，更偏重强调对价格的敏感。而现如今宏观经济环境的下行和资本市场的冷静，巨额补贴的行情将不再出现。那么现阶段用户习惯正在逐步被改变。用户需求的变化促使着平台整体运营管理的调整。如何建立强有力的用户粘性将会成为未来平台发展的重中之重。</p><p>未来，如何依靠自身平台协作与增强获客渠道将对平台的运营能力提出更高的要求。</p><ul><li><p><b>标准化程度的不断提升</b></p></li></ul><p>随着终端用户对食品安全诉求的不断提升和平台专业化运营能力的持续提高，未来，平台和店家规范化作业可能将成为外卖市场必不可少的环节。在政府日益趋于的监管下，标准化作业可以有效减少外卖服务中出现的负面情况，也可以进一步保护各方权益，有效促进餐饮外卖行业健康发展。同时，标准化作业和平台、店家提供的专属化定制化服务并不冲突。</p><p><b>小结</b></p><p>“饿了么裁员”报道不实的新闻将大众的目光又一次送上了外卖行业赛道。从早期的补贴大战到现在本地生活业务的争夺，资本对新零售的重视愈加明显。未来平台如何提升精细化运营能力和标准化程度可能将成为外卖行业的胜利之匙，也可能更会受到资本的青睐。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1588993976395","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>饿了么、美团胜负已分？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n饿了么、美团胜负已分？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-13 18:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/camEcFo4K6iJKzUv3S8w3Q><strong>BT财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>饿了么与美团熬死其他对手之后成为“平分天下”的外卖双巨头，两者的较量从未停止过，但是现在饿了么频传裁员，而美团一路挺进本地生活。2022年1月初，市场报道称近期，阿里本地生活业务即将开启一轮大幅裁员，甚至还有饿了么员工确认了裁员说法，称月底业务调整已在发生。随后饿了么辟谣，称饿了么不存在裁员计划，并对下一步的发展制定了明确的规划。回顾近10年外卖行业发展，从早期饿了么、到家美食会到百度外卖和美团，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/camEcFo4K6iJKzUv3S8w3Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c972a78fbe34096796ada872b683e450","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/camEcFo4K6iJKzUv3S8w3Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150750118","content_text":"饿了么与美团熬死其他对手之后成为“平分天下”的外卖双巨头，两者的较量从未停止过，但是现在饿了么频传裁员，而美团一路挺进本地生活。2022年1月初，市场报道称近期，阿里本地生活业务即将开启一轮大幅裁员，甚至还有饿了么员工确认了裁员说法，称月底业务调整已在发生。随后饿了么辟谣，称饿了么不存在裁员计划，并对下一步的发展制定了明确的规划。回顾近10年外卖行业发展，从早期饿了么、到家美食会到百度外卖和美团，再到目前的饿了么和美团称霸外卖行业。伴随着互联网红利的逐渐消退，本身就依靠于互联网行业而发展壮大的外卖行业又将何去何从？本文将试图通过中国外卖行业概况、中国外卖市场竞争格局和中国外卖市场行业展望三个方面探讨外卖行业发展的前景。外卖行业为什么突然崛起？外卖行业“三国杀”早期，外卖市场以电话外卖为主。餐饮商家为满足消费者的即时用餐需求，提供电话订餐服务。但受限于送餐的时效性和生活水平的缘故，电话订餐模式并未大面积普及。随着互联网行业的迅速崛起，外卖行业依靠着互联网的便通，如零号线、到家美食会、点我吧、易淘食等竞争者逐渐增多，但是都较局限于当地且各竞争者之间差距不大，市场整体规模相对较小。而当时饿了么因为成立时间早发展速度快，成功的占据了当时市场较大份额。2011年，美团通过重点强调终端用户和店家的战略方针，以高效低费用的运营管理销售团队为辅，持续扩张外卖市场份额，并同时上线外卖APP，成功进军外卖市场。2013年，资本开始大举进军外卖行业，各平台开启烧钱模式以期望迅速占领市场。最初饿了么通过巨额的补贴优惠手段扩展大学生市场，美团随后成立美团外卖。而后各平台为快速挤占餐饮外卖市场份额，进行低价竞争，通过高额补贴来吸引消费者和餐饮商户入驻。在2014年，美团开始重点布局三四线城市的市场战略。与此同时，百度下场外卖市场，并于当年年末成功占据接近10％的市场份额。2015年，阿里开始入局外卖行业，多次入股饿了么。自此，资本支持、烧钱模式下的外卖市场呈现出饿了么、美团和百度外卖三足鼎立之势，据统计三家平台市场份额占比为86.5％。2017年8月，饿了么正式宣布收购百度外卖，中国外卖市场进入“2+N“的局面，饿了么和美团两者共占据外卖市场份额超过90％，剩余则被专属平台如宅急送、麦乐送等占据。2018年4月，饿了么成为阿里全资子公司，被并入阿里本地生活服务体系。百度外卖并入阿里旗下，并易名为饿了么星选。同年9月，美团成功在香港交易所敲钟完成IPO。2021年7月，市场消息宣布字节跳动下属抖音成立心动外卖，相关外卖业务仍在测试阶段。外卖市场万亿规模随着经济发展和社会生活水平提高，中国餐饮行业市场规模增长迅速。根据国家统计局数据显示，2015年中国餐饮市场规模为3.2万亿元。2019年和2020年中国餐饮市场规模分别为4.7万亿和4万亿，同比下降已达到近17%，而2025年至2019年期间中国餐饮市场规模年复合增长率超过了9.5％。根据券商数据显示，2021年上半年，中国餐饮市场规模超过2万亿元，同比增长超过48％。根据券商数据显示，2021全年中国餐饮行业市场规模将恢复到4.7万亿元的水平。据辰智咨询与中国烹饪协会联合发布的《2021年中国餐饮大数据白皮书》预计，中国餐饮未来5年收入增速约为6％~8％，未来两年内有望突破5万亿。中国餐饮外卖行业伴随着互联网行业的崛起，经过资本加持和市场潜力迅速挖掘。根据市场数据显示，外卖市场规模从2011年的216亿元增长至2020年的6646亿元，年复合增长率超过37％。2020年全年中国外卖行业渗透率超过16.5％。中国外卖消费者规模从2011年的0.63亿人次增长至2020年的4.56亿人次，年复合增长率达18.6％。外卖——线下三端网络外卖行业主要由线上平台、店家、骑手和终端用户四部分组成。在四方参与的商业模式下，线下三端网络密度效应（即网络的价值与连接用户数的平方（N^2）成正比关系）明显，店家、骑手和用户作为线下三个组成部分，通过线上平台构建起了商业闭环。终端用户通过线上平台获得店家选择、骑手达成快速配送；店家通过线上平台获得终端用户流量支撑和足够多的骑手保障高效配送；骑手通过线上平台获得订单配送以确保短时间内赚最多的钱。线上平台提供给线下三方的服务质量越高、可供选择的外卖商家越多，骑手配送速度越快，平台反馈速度越快，消费者的满意程度就越高，从而有更强烈的意愿点外卖。下单越多，商家盈利越多，骑手接到的送单越多，赚的钱越多。一方的效率高、满意度高、粘性高都会促进其他方的收益，正常运营过程中，会形成良性循环，相互促进，实现多方共赢。线上外卖平台扮演连接、沟通、协调、配合、促进，同时又在其中盈利的关键核心角色，对接线下的商家、骑手和用户三方，基于平台自身具备的算法和人工智能等技术，匹配骑手、餐饮商户、消费者并计算三者之间的最短距离，实时追踪配送信息与订单，以最短时间和最低成本为消费者配送产品。平台的收入来源于佣金和广告：佣金：包括商户流水抽成、数据服务收费、物流配送收费及餐饮商户服务费用等；广告费：商户为了获取靠前排名带来的高曝光度与高流量，通过竞价购买特定排名位置。此外，APP界面上开放的广告位也会收取广告费。外卖骑手负责外卖餐饮配送工作，是整个订单流程当中至关重要的一环，配送时间、效率与配送服务方式、态度等方面直接决定了用户体验，是平台配送触达到客户的最关键的体现。外卖骑手招聘门槛较低，无学历、专业等硬性要求，且薪资超过众多基础性岗位，因此吸纳了众多低学历、身体素质较好的中青年人群。外卖骑手分为两类：平台自建配送团队，该模式下外卖员经过适当培训且通常仅专注某一外卖平台外卖业务，时效性和服务质量更高，用户体验更好；众包平台共享骑手，即外卖平台共享外卖骑手，通常共享骑手的工作时间较为自由，未经过专业系统的培训且空闲时间少，配送所需时间长，时效性较差，用户体验相对较差。饿了么美团两雄争霸饿了么、美团哪家强？根据阿里巴巴财报显示， 2021财年，阿里本地生活服务业务收入为315.37亿，同比增长24％。2022财年第1季度营业收入为87.57亿，2季度营业收入为95.13亿，同比增幅为8％，增速明显放缓。营业收入占比方面数据显示阿里本地生活业务在2022财年第2季度占总营业收入低于去年同期的5,7%。根据券商数据显示，美团餐饮外卖业务在其2021年前三个季度期间，收入同比增长为116.8％、59％和28％，分别为206亿、231亿和265亿。日均交易笔数分别为3230万笔、3890万笔和4360万笔，同比增长分别为113.5％、58.9％和24.9％。饿了么市场份额和用户方面数据均弱于美团目前，饿了么和美团占据了中国外卖市场份额超过90％。券商数据显示，交易额方面：2020年2季度美团外卖交易额为饿了么的 2.7 倍，并且逐年挤压其他平台份额。餐饮外卖时长方面：美团占比 68.2％，饿了么占比 25.4％，其余平台占比 6.4％。用户粘性、日均启动数方面：美团外卖的用户粘性为 23.15％，而饿了么的粘性为 22.56％。人均单日使用次数和人均单日使用时长方面：饿了么人均单日使用次数和人均单日使用时长分别为8.73和5.54，美团人均单日使用次数和人均单日使用时长分别为11.87和5.8。经营管理方面两者各有优势1、饿了么原高层已出局2017 年，美团的股权结构是“同股不同权”，三位联合创始人团队共拥有 57.9％的投票权。在接受腾讯、红杉等资本介入时，管理层通过股权结构设计保留了创始团队的多数投票权，经营理念和策略具有连贯性。而饿了么2018年被阿里收购并入阿里本地服务体系后，管理团队发生了较大变动，阿里系空降高管层，饿了么包括创始人张旭豪在内的原管理团队相继出局。2、美团强项——本地生活阿里本地生活服务形成了口碑+饿了么+客如云+蜂鸟即配的“到店+外卖+餐饮+配送”的服务体系。在这个生态链中，饿了么被阿里收购后也承担了流量入口的职能，原有的餐饮产业垂直定位次于阿里的本地生活服务。美团外卖依托于美团生态，打造以“吃”为核心的多元本地服务场景。美团的优势在于长期深耕于本地生活，更注重长期的发展趋势，满足用户生活中方方面面的需求，形成更强的协同效应。3、饿了么杀招——红包奖励饿了么年轻形象作为获客基础，品牌年轻化升级。饿了么用户集中在高线城市70％+的用户为一二线城市用户，新用户多为二线城市。2020 年邀请王一博作为代言人，品牌全面年轻化升级。2018 年 8 月联合淘宝，推出 88VIP 年度会员（淘气值满 1000 的用户售价 88 元/年，含年度会员，包含 4 张无门槛红包，不含加量红包）。其 88 会员所享受的优惠了力度进一步提高了饿了么的留客能力。美团通过早期业务布局，在下沉市场的高占有率提供了相应的经验。在三四线城市的商家资源远远超过饿了么，低线城市渗透更高。2019 年 7 月联合腾讯视频、喜马拉雅，推出月度会员（20 元/月，包含 5 张 5 元无门槛红包，在基础红包用完后可以以 8折购买加量红包），优惠力度强。一站式生活服务平台留存能力强。同时，美团通过布局外卖、到店、酒旅、网约车、共享单车、生鲜电商、共享充电宝等领域，打造全面的本地生活服务，实现用户的交叉导流，增加用户粘性。外卖行业巨额补贴将不再出现未来平台的精细化运营由于资本介入和补贴大战导致的用户习惯，更偏重强调对价格的敏感。而现如今宏观经济环境的下行和资本市场的冷静，巨额补贴的行情将不再出现。那么现阶段用户习惯正在逐步被改变。用户需求的变化促使着平台整体运营管理的调整。如何建立强有力的用户粘性将会成为未来平台发展的重中之重。未来，如何依靠自身平台协作与增强获客渠道将对平台的运营能力提出更高的要求。标准化程度的不断提升随着终端用户对食品安全诉求的不断提升和平台专业化运营能力的持续提高，未来，平台和店家规范化作业可能将成为外卖市场必不可少的环节。在政府日益趋于的监管下，标准化作业可以有效减少外卖服务中出现的负面情况，也可以进一步保护各方权益，有效促进餐饮外卖行业健康发展。同时，标准化作业和平台、店家提供的专属化定制化服务并不冲突。小结“饿了么裁员”报道不实的新闻将大众的目光又一次送上了外卖行业赛道。从早期的补贴大战到现在本地生活业务的争夺，资本对新零售的重视愈加明显。未来平台如何提升精细化运营能力和标准化程度可能将成为外卖行业的胜利之匙，也可能更会受到资本的青睐。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695275907,"gmtCreate":1641486145838,"gmtModify":1641486145838,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"600亿的拼多多，哪里找？","listText":"600亿的拼多多，哪里找？","text":"600亿的拼多多，哪里找？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695275907","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695262553,"gmtCreate":1641477757957,"gmtModify":1641477867574,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3472208920632605","authorIdStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-02-02/doc-ikftpnny3487801.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/norm_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-02-02/doc-ikftpnny3487801.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2108733983","content_text":"理想汽车周二盘前交易中表现落后于主要竞争对手，因其1月份Li One交付量低于其它电动汽车制造商。理想汽车在周二盘前交易中下跌2.2%，蔚来汽车上涨1%，小鹏汽车上涨1.3%。理想汽车1月份交付5，379辆Li 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-23 20:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>5月23日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b2c062b7fc0a9623a8268e61e51a67b\" tg-width=\"1805\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e6745f05a0bbf67daedcbcdbcf4997\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129159429","content_text":"5月23日，滴滴今天宣布，已通知纽约证券交易所，该公司决定继续将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市。该公司计划于2022年6月2日或之后向美国证券交易委员会提交一份FORM 25表格，以便将其美国存托股从纽约证券交易所退市，预计该退市将在FORM 25表格生效后的十天内进行。消息发布后，滴滴盘前股价巨震，一度由跌6%转涨超11%","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633991316,"gmtCreate":1643641166932,"gmtModify":1643641166932,"author":{"id":"3472208920632605","authorId":"3472208920632605","name":"小布同学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ea64446910de23e2f74d944314a2b56","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472208920632605","idStr":"3472208920632605"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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