Tiger2088的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Tiger2088

Tiger2088

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IP属地：西藏

21关注

1粉丝

0主题

0勋章

10-14

$A50指数主连 2410(CNmain)$

2021-10-07

洗地侠

老虎盘前观察：新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首？

2020-08-11

$黄金主连(GCmain)$ 做空美元指数又在涨黄金还爹这么厉害什么逻辑啊

2020-05-05

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 建行还能不能做啊求助

2020-05-04

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$ 最近是不是国内银行都关闭了啊

2020-04-27

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$今天大概率又要到13左右，可怕

2020-04-27

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$上周抄底的今天会死吗

2020-04-23

无脑空都能赚钱，我简直…

2020-04-22

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$后悔涨40点的时候没做空，做其他事去了

2020-04-22

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$继续拉啊多头们

2020-04-22

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$爆拉起来

2020-04-22

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$今天大涨30点我继续空

2020-04-22

$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$今晚杀空头，我是空仓的空头[开心]

2020-04-22

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$我做空平仓了前景不明做多做空都不知道了

2020-04-22

$WTI原油2006(CL2006)$** 做空爽到爆啊

2020-04-22

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$最恐慌的时刻过了要杀空头了

2020-04-22

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$我插，要一天跌没吗

2020-04-21

$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$我放弃抵抗了你们呢

2020-03-20

$道琼斯(.DJI)$为什么现在国内卡入金不了，谁说一下哪个行的可以入金，谢谢

2020-03-19

$道琼斯(.DJI)$太吓人了真的。

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连 2410(CNmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连 2410(CNmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$A50指数主连 2410(CNmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359975679746216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":829700574,"gmtCreate":1633541759283,"gmtModify":1633541759283,"author":{"id":"3471920306754315","authorId":"3471920306754315","name":"Tiger2088","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb729b013ac63f9daa51ab061381dd3f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3471920306754315","authorIdStr":"3471920306754315"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"洗地侠","listText":"洗地侠","text":"洗地侠","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829700574","repostId":"1148349467","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148349467","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点，观察市场，提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633526141,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148349467?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 21:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎盘前观察： 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148349467","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"盘前观察\n美股盘前下跌，比特币持续走高，站上55000美元/枚，日内涨6.79%。（相关阅读：盘前：英伟达向欧盟做出让步，抗疫股成利空“集中营”）\n 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首？\n冬天还未到，全球就突","content":"<p><b>盘前观察</b></p>\n<p>美股盘前下跌，比特币持续走高，站上55000美元/枚，日内涨6.79%。（相关阅读：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123867876\" target=\"_blank\">盘前：英伟达向欧盟做出让步，抗疫股成利空“集中营”</a>）</p>\n<p>&nbsp;<b>新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首？</b></p>\n<p>冬天还未到，全球就突然陷入了能源荒。从欧洲天然气价格飙涨，到中国各地拉闸限电，再到OPEC+在关键时刻决定不大幅增加原油产量，各种能源期货价格一路看涨。分析和讨论的文章很多，但最后的结论，总是“新能源是罪魁祸首”。</p>\n<p>动辄就怪新能源这种现象，其实在德州大停电的时候也出现过。年初德州因为寒冷大停电的时候，无数文章都说是德州的风能发电机因为太冷停转，而导致了德州大停电。但最后真实的情况是绝大部分能源损失来自于天然气发电厂因为低温停工，另一个更深层次的原因是德州电网独立，和外界不互通，造成了其它地方电力没法运进德州。但知道真相的人没几个，大家的记忆永远是那几张风能发电机被冻住的照片。</p>\n<p>全球能源市场非常碎片化，不同能源在各地形成的危机原因也不一样，很难用一个大一统的理论去叙述（就连“新冠是元凶”这类万精油，在能源问题上也不能套用）。我前段时间写过天然气在欧洲、美国和中国的情况，今天讨论国内的电荒问题。</p>\n<p>关于国内电荒问题的分析已经非常多，很多人都注意到了电价和煤价的倒挂。的确，目前发电用的动力煤价格一路飙涨（下左图），全国港口动力煤库存也达到了一个相对低点（下右图）。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc4aea3da42c9d7525db787fd780fa44\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以很多分析就会顺藤摸瓜去找动力煤（或者广义上的煤）价格为何飙升。找来找去，无非就是两个原因：一是环保，二是安全——导致国内煤产量没有跟上，从而导致国内电荒。反正，这个锅新能源肯定要背。</p>\n<p>但是，如果我们看国内的煤产量，根据国家统计局的数据：<b>1-8月份，生产原煤26.0亿吨，同比增长4.4%，比2019年同期增长4.2%。</b>也就是说，中国的煤产量在今年实际上是增加的，2020年1-8月因为新冠疫情煤产量略微下降，但是今年前8个月，已经超过了2019年同期水平。下图是我国过去5年的煤产量，总体来说，产量还是稳步增长，只增速变小。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b19661600f16fa6f0eddc43d50e3b80\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">后来又有一种说法，说今年的煤炭进口不多导致了煤炭价格上涨。根据国家统计局的数据：1-8月，<b>进口煤炭19769万吨，同比下降10.3%。</b>似乎有点道理，不过我国进口的煤炭，只占国内生产量的7%（2亿吨/26亿吨），同比下降10%，也就是说少了0.7%。有影响，但绝对不是主要原因。如果真的是因为进口导致了煤荒电荒，那么这种问题也很好解决——加大进口就好了。有一点需要提一下，根据路透社的图（下图），今年从澳大利亚进口的煤（黄色），确实少了很多，但是从印尼（蓝色）和俄国（红色）的进口量都在增加。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611b2377435db1f7cf624a19fcf4f8cd\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">煤的国内产量在上升，进口量微跌，总量依旧增加。所以硬要说是因为煤荒导致了电荒，这个说法很牵强。所以，我整理了过去国家能源局公布的用电数据，如下表。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8656ee8375592ed06cbe8b765d0ed22d\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">矛盾似乎忽然清晰起来，<b>今年的用电量相较于往年大幅增加，但是发电装机容量的增速，却没有跟上。所以并非是煤荒导致了电荒，而是用电量大幅提高，导致了煤供应短缺造成煤价上涨。</b></p>\n<p>&nbsp;根据国家能源局的数据，用电量的大头，也是整体增速提高的地方，是工业用电量。今年1-6月份工业用电增量占全社会用电增量的70%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6d0362cb4bcbe072bbb691bd68473a\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以，下一个问题就是，工业用电量为何增速如此之快？</p>\n<p>我把今年每个月的累计增速统计在下表。可以看出来，今年1-3月的增速最强，但是8月份增速已经降下来了（和限电有一定关系）。这个趋势，和今年的GDP的增速模式一致：第一季度中国GDP增速18.3%，第二季度增速7.9%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0511dbe3263ece0c2229054a419de7b4\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">总结一下。今天的电荒，不是因为煤荒导致，而是因为工业用电增长过快（煤荒只是因为用电太多，才导致煤不足）。而工业用电过快增长的原因，是因为国内的生产需求高，GDP增长快。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;最后，请不要动不动就怪新能源。</p>\n<p><b>大市(美东时间9:00 AM)</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c179c5afad661528619a7484f25a5b9d\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>爱奇艺(IQ)：考虑筹集$5亿，最快今年年底在香港二次上市。</b></p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;辉瑞(PFE)&amp; BioNTech(BNTX)：接种5个月后预防感染有效率降至47%。</b>《柳叶刀》最新研究显示，接种两剂疫苗5个月后，预防感染新冠病毒的有效率降至47%，但在预防与新冠感染相关的入院治疗方面，有效率仍保持在约90%。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;挪威邮轮(NCLH)：预计年底之前恢复75%游轮运营，明年4月1日全面恢复。</b>目前挪威邮轮有8艘船正在航行，旅客上船前必须接种疫苗。尚未有疫苗接种资格的儿童被禁止登上邮轮。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;特斯拉(TSLA)：上调Model 3/Y的美国售价。</b>Model 3标准续航版和高性能版各自提价$1,000，长续航版未涨价；Model Y长续航版及高性能版均提价$1,000。</p>\n<p><b>Facebook(FB)：扎克伯格回应前员工指控，否认将利润置于用户安全之上。</b>扎克伯格呼吁国会更新互联网法规，以确定青少年使用互联网服务的年龄、科技公司应如何验证用户的年龄以及公司应如何平衡给予孩子隐私和让父母了解孩子的上网活动。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;Palantir(PLTR)：获得美国军方价值$8.23亿的合同。</b>该公司将为军方提供覆盖多个安全类别的全球联合情报数据结构和分析平台，以支持世界各地的军方情报用户。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;百事(PEP)：随着供应中断持续，价格可能再次上涨。</b>百事CFO约翰斯顿表示，预计多数供应链中断将在2021年底前缓和，但明年1季度价格可能出现一些上涨。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;英伟达(NVDA)：在Arm收购问题上向欧盟做出让步。</b>欧盟反垄断执法机构没有提供与政策相符的让步细节，将最后期限定在10月27日。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;台积电(TSM)：将于2050年达到净零排放目标。</b></p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;IBM(IBM)&amp;本田汽车(HMC)：就欧洲财务和采购业务签署新协议。</b>根据该协议，IBM计划管理和运营本田在欧洲的财务和采购业务。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;亚马逊(AMZN)：CEO Jassy表示，视频游戏或成亚马逊最大娱乐业务。</b>一周前，亚马逊发布了PC版大型多人在线游戏《新世界》。 Jassy表示，这款游戏有一个“良好的开端”，每天拥有数百万活跃玩家。</p>\n<p><b>亚马逊(AMZN)：在英国开设首家非食品实体店，利用线上销售数据决定售卖货品。</b>该实体店将提供其最畅销的书籍、电子产品、玩具、游戏和家庭用品系列。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;Netflix(NFLX)：在网上商店中增加了跟《鱿鱼游戏》有关的周边产品。</b>Netflix称《鱿鱼游戏》可能会成为其最受欢迎的原创剧集。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎盘前观察： 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-06 21:15</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>盘前观察</b></p>\n<p>美股盘前下跌，比特币持续走高，站上55000美元/枚，日内涨6.79%。（相关阅读：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1123867876\" target=\"_blank\">盘前：英伟达向欧盟做出让步，抗疫股成利空“集中营”</a>）</p>\n<p>&nbsp;<b>新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首？</b></p>\n<p>冬天还未到，全球就突然陷入了能源荒。从欧洲天然气价格飙涨，到中国各地拉闸限电，再到OPEC+在关键时刻决定不大幅增加原油产量，各种能源期货价格一路看涨。分析和讨论的文章很多，但最后的结论，总是“新能源是罪魁祸首”。</p>\n<p>动辄就怪新能源这种现象，其实在德州大停电的时候也出现过。年初德州因为寒冷大停电的时候，无数文章都说是德州的风能发电机因为太冷停转，而导致了德州大停电。但最后真实的情况是绝大部分能源损失来自于天然气发电厂因为低温停工，另一个更深层次的原因是德州电网独立，和外界不互通，造成了其它地方电力没法运进德州。但知道真相的人没几个，大家的记忆永远是那几张风能发电机被冻住的照片。</p>\n<p>全球能源市场非常碎片化，不同能源在各地形成的危机原因也不一样，很难用一个大一统的理论去叙述（就连“新冠是元凶”这类万精油，在能源问题上也不能套用）。我前段时间写过天然气在欧洲、美国和中国的情况，今天讨论国内的电荒问题。</p>\n<p>关于国内电荒问题的分析已经非常多，很多人都注意到了电价和煤价的倒挂。的确，目前发电用的动力煤价格一路飙涨（下左图），全国港口动力煤库存也达到了一个相对低点（下右图）。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc4aea3da42c9d7525db787fd780fa44\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"237\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以很多分析就会顺藤摸瓜去找动力煤（或者广义上的煤）价格为何飙升。找来找去，无非就是两个原因：一是环保，二是安全——导致国内煤产量没有跟上，从而导致国内电荒。反正，这个锅新能源肯定要背。</p>\n<p>但是，如果我们看国内的煤产量，根据国家统计局的数据：<b>1-8月份，生产原煤26.0亿吨，同比增长4.4%，比2019年同期增长4.2%。</b>也就是说，中国的煤产量在今年实际上是增加的，2020年1-8月因为新冠疫情煤产量略微下降，但是今年前8个月，已经超过了2019年同期水平。下图是我国过去5年的煤产量，总体来说，产量还是稳步增长，只增速变小。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b19661600f16fa6f0eddc43d50e3b80\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">后来又有一种说法，说今年的煤炭进口不多导致了煤炭价格上涨。根据国家统计局的数据：1-8月，<b>进口煤炭19769万吨，同比下降10.3%。</b>似乎有点道理，不过我国进口的煤炭，只占国内生产量的7%（2亿吨/26亿吨），同比下降10%，也就是说少了0.7%。有影响，但绝对不是主要原因。如果真的是因为进口导致了煤荒电荒，那么这种问题也很好解决——加大进口就好了。有一点需要提一下，根据路透社的图（下图），今年从澳大利亚进口的煤（黄色），确实少了很多，但是从印尼（蓝色）和俄国（红色）的进口量都在增加。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611b2377435db1f7cf624a19fcf4f8cd\" tg-width=\"567\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">煤的国内产量在上升，进口量微跌，总量依旧增加。所以硬要说是因为煤荒导致了电荒，这个说法很牵强。所以，我整理了过去国家能源局公布的用电数据，如下表。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8656ee8375592ed06cbe8b765d0ed22d\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">矛盾似乎忽然清晰起来，<b>今年的用电量相较于往年大幅增加，但是发电装机容量的增速，却没有跟上。所以并非是煤荒导致了电荒，而是用电量大幅提高，导致了煤供应短缺造成煤价上涨。</b></p>\n<p>&nbsp;根据国家能源局的数据，用电量的大头，也是整体增速提高的地方，是工业用电量。今年1-6月份工业用电增量占全社会用电增量的70%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6d0362cb4bcbe072bbb691bd68473a\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"255\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">所以，下一个问题就是，工业用电量为何增速如此之快？</p>\n<p>我把今年每个月的累计增速统计在下表。可以看出来，今年1-3月的增速最强，但是8月份增速已经降下来了（和限电有一定关系）。这个趋势，和今年的GDP的增速模式一致：第一季度中国GDP增速18.3%，第二季度增速7.9%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0511dbe3263ece0c2229054a419de7b4\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"115\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">总结一下。今天的电荒，不是因为煤荒导致，而是因为工业用电增长过快（煤荒只是因为用电太多，才导致煤不足）。而工业用电过快增长的原因，是因为国内的生产需求高，GDP增长快。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;最后，请不要动不动就怪新能源。</p>\n<p><b>大市(美东时间9:00 AM)</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c179c5afad661528619a7484f25a5b9d\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>公司新闻</b></p>\n<p><b>爱奇艺(IQ)：考虑筹集$5亿，最快今年年底在香港二次上市。</b></p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;辉瑞(PFE)&amp; BioNTech(BNTX)：接种5个月后预防感染有效率降至47%。</b>《柳叶刀》最新研究显示，接种两剂疫苗5个月后，预防感染新冠病毒的有效率降至47%，但在预防与新冠感染相关的入院治疗方面，有效率仍保持在约90%。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;挪威邮轮(NCLH)：预计年底之前恢复75%游轮运营，明年4月1日全面恢复。</b>目前挪威邮轮有8艘船正在航行，旅客上船前必须接种疫苗。尚未有疫苗接种资格的儿童被禁止登上邮轮。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;特斯拉(TSLA)：上调Model 3/Y的美国售价。</b>Model 3标准续航版和高性能版各自提价$1,000，长续航版未涨价；Model Y长续航版及高性能版均提价$1,000。</p>\n<p><b>Facebook(FB)：扎克伯格回应前员工指控，否认将利润置于用户安全之上。</b>扎克伯格呼吁国会更新互联网法规，以确定青少年使用互联网服务的年龄、科技公司应如何验证用户的年龄以及公司应如何平衡给予孩子隐私和让父母了解孩子的上网活动。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;Palantir(PLTR)：获得美国军方价值$8.23亿的合同。</b>该公司将为军方提供覆盖多个安全类别的全球联合情报数据结构和分析平台，以支持世界各地的军方情报用户。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;百事(PEP)：随着供应中断持续，价格可能再次上涨。</b>百事CFO约翰斯顿表示，预计多数供应链中断将在2021年底前缓和，但明年1季度价格可能出现一些上涨。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;英伟达(NVDA)：在Arm收购问题上向欧盟做出让步。</b>欧盟反垄断执法机构没有提供与政策相符的让步细节，将最后期限定在10月27日。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;台积电(TSM)：将于2050年达到净零排放目标。</b></p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;IBM(IBM)&amp;本田汽车(HMC)：就欧洲财务和采购业务签署新协议。</b>根据该协议，IBM计划管理和运营本田在欧洲的财务和采购业务。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;亚马逊(AMZN)：CEO Jassy表示，视频游戏或成亚马逊最大娱乐业务。</b>一周前，亚马逊发布了PC版大型多人在线游戏《新世界》。 Jassy表示，这款游戏有一个“良好的开端”，每天拥有数百万活跃玩家。</p>\n<p><b>亚马逊(AMZN)：在英国开设首家非食品实体店，利用线上销售数据决定售卖货品。</b>该实体店将提供其最畅销的书籍、电子产品、玩具、游戏和家庭用品系列。</p>\n<p><b>&nbsp;Netflix(NFLX)：在网上商店中增加了跟《鱿鱼游戏》有关的周边产品。</b>Netflix称《鱿鱼游戏》可能会成为其最受欢迎的原创剧集。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e51dca4aea5a4f4975d48e2264c0446","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148349467","content_text":"盘前观察\n美股盘前下跌，比特币持续走高，站上55000美元/枚，日内涨6.79%。（相关阅读：盘前：英伟达向欧盟做出让步，抗疫股成利空“集中营”）\n 新能源是国内电荒的罪魁祸首？\n冬天还未到，全球就突然陷入了能源荒。从欧洲天然气价格飙涨，到中国各地拉闸限电，再到OPEC+在关键时刻决定不大幅增加原油产量，各种能源期货价格一路看涨。分析和讨论的文章很多，但最后的结论，总是“新能源是罪魁祸首”。\n动辄就怪新能源这种现象，其实在德州大停电的时候也出现过。年初德州因为寒冷大停电的时候，无数文章都说是德州的风能发电机因为太冷停转，而导致了德州大停电。但最后真实的情况是绝大部分能源损失来自于天然气发电厂因为低温停工，另一个更深层次的原因是德州电网独立，和外界不互通，造成了其它地方电力没法运进德州。但知道真相的人没几个，大家的记忆永远是那几张风能发电机被冻住的照片。\n全球能源市场非常碎片化，不同能源在各地形成的危机原因也不一样，很难用一个大一统的理论去叙述（就连“新冠是元凶”这类万精油，在能源问题上也不能套用）。我前段时间写过天然气在欧洲、美国和中国的情况，今天讨论国内的电荒问题。\n关于国内电荒问题的分析已经非常多，很多人都注意到了电价和煤价的倒挂。的确，目前发电用的动力煤价格一路飙涨（下左图），全国港口动力煤库存也达到了一个相对低点（下右图）。所以很多分析就会顺藤摸瓜去找动力煤（或者广义上的煤）价格为何飙升。找来找去，无非就是两个原因：一是环保，二是安全——导致国内煤产量没有跟上，从而导致国内电荒。反正，这个锅新能源肯定要背。\n但是，如果我们看国内的煤产量，根据国家统计局的数据：1-8月份，生产原煤26.0亿吨，同比增长4.4%，比2019年同期增长4.2%。也就是说，中国的煤产量在今年实际上是增加的，2020年1-8月因为新冠疫情煤产量略微下降，但是今年前8个月，已经超过了2019年同期水平。下图是我国过去5年的煤产量，总体来说，产量还是稳步增长，只增速变小。后来又有一种说法，说今年的煤炭进口不多导致了煤炭价格上涨。根据国家统计局的数据：1-8月，进口煤炭19769万吨，同比下降10.3%。似乎有点道理，不过我国进口的煤炭，只占国内生产量的7%（2亿吨/26亿吨），同比下降10%，也就是说少了0.7%。有影响，但绝对不是主要原因。如果真的是因为进口导致了煤荒电荒，那么这种问题也很好解决——加大进口就好了。有一点需要提一下，根据路透社的图（下图），今年从澳大利亚进口的煤（黄色），确实少了很多，但是从印尼（蓝色）和俄国（红色）的进口量都在增加。\n煤的国内产量在上升，进口量微跌，总量依旧增加。所以硬要说是因为煤荒导致了电荒，这个说法很牵强。所以，我整理了过去国家能源局公布的用电数据，如下表。矛盾似乎忽然清晰起来，今年的用电量相较于往年大幅增加，但是发电装机容量的增速，却没有跟上。所以并非是煤荒导致了电荒，而是用电量大幅提高，导致了煤供应短缺造成煤价上涨。\n 根据国家能源局的数据，用电量的大头，也是整体增速提高的地方，是工业用电量。今年1-6月份工业用电增量占全社会用电增量的70%。\n所以，下一个问题就是，工业用电量为何增速如此之快？\n我把今年每个月的累计增速统计在下表。可以看出来，今年1-3月的增速最强，但是8月份增速已经降下来了（和限电有一定关系）。这个趋势，和今年的GDP的增速模式一致：第一季度中国GDP增速18.3%，第二季度增速7.9%。总结一下。今天的电荒，不是因为煤荒导致，而是因为工业用电增长过快（煤荒只是因为用电太多，才导致煤不足）。而工业用电过快增长的原因，是因为国内的生产需求高，GDP增长快。\n 最后，请不要动不动就怪新能源。\n大市(美东时间9:00 AM)\n公司新闻\n爱奇艺(IQ)：考虑筹集$5亿，最快今年年底在香港二次上市。\n 辉瑞(PFE)& BioNTech(BNTX)：接种5个月后预防感染有效率降至47%。《柳叶刀》最新研究显示，接种两剂疫苗5个月后，预防感染新冠病毒的有效率降至47%，但在预防与新冠感染相关的入院治疗方面，有效率仍保持在约90%。\n 挪威邮轮(NCLH)：预计年底之前恢复75%游轮运营，明年4月1日全面恢复。目前挪威邮轮有8艘船正在航行，旅客上船前必须接种疫苗。尚未有疫苗接种资格的儿童被禁止登上邮轮。\n 特斯拉(TSLA)：上调Model 3/Y的美国售价。Model 3标准续航版和高性能版各自提价$1,000，长续航版未涨价；Model Y长续航版及高性能版均提价$1,000。\nFacebook(FB)：扎克伯格回应前员工指控，否认将利润置于用户安全之上。扎克伯格呼吁国会更新互联网法规，以确定青少年使用互联网服务的年龄、科技公司应如何验证用户的年龄以及公司应如何平衡给予孩子隐私和让父母了解孩子的上网活动。\n Palantir(PLTR)：获得美国军方价值$8.23亿的合同。该公司将为军方提供覆盖多个安全类别的全球联合情报数据结构和分析平台，以支持世界各地的军方情报用户。\n 百事(PEP)：随着供应中断持续，价格可能再次上涨。百事CFO约翰斯顿表示，预计多数供应链中断将在2021年底前缓和，但明年1季度价格可能出现一些上涨。\n 英伟达(NVDA)：在Arm收购问题上向欧盟做出让步。欧盟反垄断执法机构没有提供与政策相符的让步细节，将最后期限定在10月27日。\n 台积电(TSM)：将于2050年达到净零排放目标。\n IBM(IBM)&本田汽车(HMC)：就欧洲财务和采购业务签署新协议。根据该协议，IBM计划管理和运营本田在欧洲的财务和采购业务。\n 亚马逊(AMZN)：CEO Jassy表示，视频游戏或成亚马逊最大娱乐业务。一周前，亚马逊发布了PC版大型多人在线游戏《新世界》。 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