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mingle_huang

mingle_huang

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2020-11-14

$理想汽车(LI)$$蔚来(NIO)$$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$昨天早上都说股价严重高估了，三傻都高估了，还有这么多韭菜说业绩好，业绩再好也是初期发展阶段，怎么能透支未来一两年的业绩。

2020-11-13

$理想汽车(LI)$高估了高估了，严重高估了。

2018-11-15

$红黄蓝(RYB)$突然的利空，大跌，可以上车买入了。

2018-10-26

$亚马逊(AMZN)$没事的，大资金会自救一下的，所以反而可以适当加点仓，然后涨了点就卖出。

2018-11-21

$京东(JD)$ 不是京东太低了，而是$拼多多(PDD)$ 拼多多太高了。。。

2019-05-07

$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ 可以逐渐减仓了，各位。巨大机会不容错过，不可能买在最低点的，想想巴菲特前几天说的：苹果跌低点就买入。所以放心买入等吧。

2018-11-13

$京东(JD)$财务报告出之前可以做多了

2021-01-08

$Velodyne Lidar Inc(VLDR)$1月9号蔚来电池日将会公布雷达消息，也就是后天，会是它吗？[爱你] [爱你] [爱你]

2018-10-26

$特斯拉(TSLA)$这是无辜的个股，所以放心买入吧。其它股的资金出来买这个股了

2018-11-16

$京东(JD)$财报东之前还可以😄

2018-12-24

$亚马逊(AMZN)$跟癌股一样都有政策底和市场底？

2018-11-15

$红黄蓝(RYB)$快买啦，短线机会！

2018-09-14

$蔚来汽车(NIO)$这成交率太高了，短期内肯定还是会继续涨的

2018-11-19

$京东(JD)$大跌才是美国人要上班打卡了。

2020-11-16

等到超级充电出来，蔚来就废了。重新设计车型，换电站撤掉，以前车主没办法换电，投诉，口碑。[笑哭]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-02-01

@百度这就是盘后上涨的原因

抱歉，原内容已删除

2019-08-14

学习学习。

@小虎周报:斗鱼：高效运营后游戏直播平台的估值探讨

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[爱你]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336124043","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307388744,"gmtCreate":1605485008588,"gmtModify":1703837779942,"author":{"id":"3464815334077675","authorId":"3464815334077675","name":"mingle_huang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b3a95478f29afc2dee9123b8ff5ec21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464815334077675","authorIdStr":"3464815334077675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等到超级充电出来，蔚来就废了。重新设计车型，换电站撤掉，以前车主没办法换电，投诉，口碑。[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"等到超级充电出来，蔚来就废了。重新设计车型，换电站撤掉，以前车主没办法换电，投诉，口碑。[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"等到超级充电出来，蔚来就废了。重新设计车型，换电站撤掉，以前车主没办法换电，投诉，口碑。[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307388744","repostId":"2083181480","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2083181480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605479100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2083181480?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-16 06:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"充电桩还是换电站，特斯拉和蔚来谁才能代言新能源汽车未来方向？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2083181480","media":"江瀚视野","summary":"最近一段时间，随着特斯拉的轮番降价，新能源汽车的普及显得越来越容易，面对着新能源汽车的发展，一个重要的问题摆在大家的问题，从充电桩到换电站，谁才是新能源汽车的真正未来？从目前来说，充电桩还是换电池都是新能源汽车的发展方向，而目前来说谁都各有千秋，哪个模式能最终普及开来，只能说特斯拉和蔚来都将面临巨大的压力，谁能笑到最后可能需要看基础设施建设、成本降低和市场认同度的多种考验了。","content":"<html><body><p>最近一段时间，随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的轮番降价，新能源汽车的普及显得越来越容易，面对着新能源汽车的发展，一个重要的问题摆在大家的问题，从充电桩到换电站，谁才是新能源汽车的真正未来？</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/799/w960h639/20201116/081b-kcysmrv7713672.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>一、特斯拉的充电桩引领，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>的换电站坚持</p><p>根据《特斯拉传》的记载，在那个燃油车盛行的时代，刚刚创办的特斯拉堪称是一个市场的怪胎，那个时候在所有汽车巨头都觉得燃油车的时代还要持续相当长时间的时候，马斯克敏锐地察觉出了新能源汽车的发展方向，当然最早的特斯拉并不是我们现在看到的样子，更多还是跑车车型，现在的家用轿车车型不过是近些年的产物而已，不过当时的特斯拉就已经明确了发展的方向，这就是充电桩式电动车，可以说电动车就有充电桩这并不是产业的原创，而是特斯拉的发明与普及。</p><p>不过就在所有人都认为电动车一定要充电桩的时候，中国的一家新能源造车新势力却对此发出了挑战，这就是蔚来汽车，从创立之初便坚持换电的造车架构，开始凸显功力。截至目前，蔚来已在全国布局158座换电站，累计为用户提供超118万次换电服务。平均每18秒，就有一台蔚来在换电站里满电出发。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/0/w960h640/20201116/1d46-kcysmrv7713674.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>换电的好处在于，70度电车主不需要在电池上一次性投入过多金额，在出差或远途自驾游时，短期租用一块大电池，回来后再换成小电池，充分享受电池技术升级所带来的红利。</p><p>现在，BaaS模式购车用户无需购买电池，根据实际使用需求租用不同容量的电池按月支付服务费。BaaS模式购买70度电车型，车价减7万元，每月电池租用服务费980元；BaaS模式购买100度电车型，车价减12.8万元，每月电池租用服务费1480元。现有70度电用户可选择以灵活升级或永久买断的方式升级至100度电，按月支付是每月880元，按年是每年7980元。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/200/w1080h720/20201116/a2f5-kcysmrv7713704.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌说了两件事：第一，蔚来在中国市场的新车平均销售单价比特斯拉贵15万元左右;第二，蔚来与特斯拉的用户已不是一类用户，品牌区间上有显著区分。</p><p>在15万价差对消费者进行了天然筛选后，李斌分享了一个关于续航的日常故事：某天在合肥总部工作结束，需要连夜赶回上海的他，开着70度电的ES8，400多公里的路，只历经一次换电。</p><p>电池容量增加带来最直观的变化是续航里程显著上升。加装100度电池包后，蔚来全新ES8的续航是580公里，ES6是610公里，EC6是615公里。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/213/w1080h733/20201116/2808-kcysmrv7713705.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>二、充电桩还是换电站谁才是市场的未来?</p><p>说实在大多数人都会有一种认知上的心理学偏差，很多时候我们会觉得这个东西被创造出来的时候是这样的，基本上他就是这样的，这种设计总让人有一种理所当然的感觉，然而实际情况却远不是如此，在充电桩和换电站之争中就存在这个显著的问题，我们先说传统充电桩电动车的优势和劣势；</p><p>从优势的角度出发，传统充电桩电动车是一锤子买卖，大家买车的时候电池基本上就已经被内嵌到汽车之中了，所以你的每一笔支出都会是汽车上的支出，大家对于这种支出其实也都习以为常，自然而然也就不觉得是问题，而且这样的话以后充电的成本非常便宜，在日常的用车过程中，只要你是在城市中代步出行的话，那么开车的成本会非常便宜，也不再担心堵车一脚油门一脚刹车时候的肉疼，可以说，充电桩模式的优势是非常显著的。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/799/w960h639/20201116/5d8e-kcysmrv7713737.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>从劣势的角度出发，充电桩模式的问题也非常明显，这就是充电实在是很耗时的一件事，如果你开在路上突然没电了，基本上除了叫道路救援就没有办法，而且汽车充电的时间相对较长，大家基本上都发现了即使用快充模式也要好几个小时，这对于开车人来说特别是不少网约车等运营车辆来说是完全没办法容忍的事情；当然新能源汽车的贬值也非常严重，一般情况最容易损耗的就是电池，新能源汽车为啥保值率这么低，这和新能源汽车的电池问题可以说是密不可分的，充电桩模式的这种完全内置电池严重影响了汽车的保值；还有就是新能源汽车的充电桩模式对于长途开车无疑是一种巨大的挑战，你如果要开长途要时刻盯着是不是要没电了，即使到了服务区的充电站也要担心是不是没有充电桩了，这对于长途开车几乎就是无解的问题。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/46/w1080h566/20201116/76ac-kcysmrv7713736.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>这个时候，换电站模式也就应运而生了，我们之前看过不少<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>新能源汽车的概念视频，其采用的就是类似于口香糖式电池包的换电站模式，这种模式下，新能源汽车换电几乎和你在加油站加油没有任何区别，其优劣势我们可以分几个方面来分析：</p><p>从优势层面来看，用换电站模式来说可以有效地降低购车的成本，毕竟一辆新能源汽车的主要成本的相当大的一部分就在其电池之上，通过换电站的模式可以较好地省去这方面的成本；换电站模式可以降低汽车的使用和减值难题，使用换电站模式的新能源汽车可以完全不必在家中加装充电桩，直接去换电就好了，由于也没有电池的损耗损失，所以其保值的能力会远超传统模式的新能源汽车；开长途也不再是大问题，只需要到换电站换电池就可以非常简单地解决了电池续航所带来的难题。</p><p>但是，换电站的劣势也非常明显：目前大部分的汽车都不支持换电模式，一旦采用换电模式整个汽车的设计思路都要改变，汽车企业的前期改变成本非常高；而且国家大规模的充电桩建设也都是基于充电模式的，换电模式无疑没能进入国家的基础设施建设的方向之中，一旦要推广这基础设施的建设成本也是相当高的，所以换电在短时间内想要普及还是相对困难，同时，从标准普及的角度出发，换电模式的普及也存在较大的问题，现在换电模式还是各家企业各说各话，没能形成普遍的标准，这就让换电池存在较大的难题，标准通用也将面临巨大的问题；较高的价格也成为阻碍换电模式的重要障碍，我们看到蔚来基本上采用的就是月租的模式，这种月租无论是一千多元的价格，还是880元的月租价格都是相对较高的，远超了传统的燃油车和充电式新能源汽车的用车成本。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/sinakd20201116s/192/w1080h712/20201116/8ae9-kcysmrv7713766.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>从目前来说，充电桩还是换电池都是新能源汽车的发展方向，而目前来说谁都各有千秋，哪个模式能最终普及开来，只能说特斯拉和蔚来都将面临巨大的压力，谁能笑到最后可能需要看基础设施建设、成本降低和市场认同度的多种考验了。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>充电桩还是换电站，特斯拉和蔚来谁才能代言新能源汽车未来方向？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n充电桩还是换电站，特斯拉和蔚来谁才能代言新能源汽车未来方向？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-16 06:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_2219338054_8448694601900xrsz.html><strong>江瀚视野</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近一段时间，随着特斯拉的轮番降价，新能源汽车的普及显得越来越容易，面对着新能源汽车的发展，一个重要的问题摆在大家的问题，从充电桩到换电站，谁才是新能源汽车的真正未来？一、特斯拉的充电桩引领，蔚来的换电站坚持根据《特斯拉传》的记载，在那个燃油车盛行的时代，刚刚创办的特斯拉堪称是一个市场的怪胎，那个时候在所有汽车巨头都觉得燃油车的时代还要持续相当长时间的时候，马斯克敏锐地察觉出了新能源汽车的发展方向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_2219338054_8448694601900xrsz.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8dee905c75e031fc4f4e71da8a00201","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_2219338054_8448694601900xrsz.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2083181480","content_text":"最近一段时间，随着特斯拉的轮番降价，新能源汽车的普及显得越来越容易，面对着新能源汽车的发展，一个重要的问题摆在大家的问题，从充电桩到换电站，谁才是新能源汽车的真正未来？一、特斯拉的充电桩引领，蔚来的换电站坚持根据《特斯拉传》的记载，在那个燃油车盛行的时代，刚刚创办的特斯拉堪称是一个市场的怪胎，那个时候在所有汽车巨头都觉得燃油车的时代还要持续相当长时间的时候，马斯克敏锐地察觉出了新能源汽车的发展方向，当然最早的特斯拉并不是我们现在看到的样子，更多还是跑车车型，现在的家用轿车车型不过是近些年的产物而已，不过当时的特斯拉就已经明确了发展的方向，这就是充电桩式电动车，可以说电动车就有充电桩这并不是产业的原创，而是特斯拉的发明与普及。不过就在所有人都认为电动车一定要充电桩的时候，中国的一家新能源造车新势力却对此发出了挑战，这就是蔚来汽车，从创立之初便坚持换电的造车架构，开始凸显功力。截至目前，蔚来已在全国布局158座换电站，累计为用户提供超118万次换电服务。平均每18秒，就有一台蔚来在换电站里满电出发。换电的好处在于，70度电车主不需要在电池上一次性投入过多金额，在出差或远途自驾游时，短期租用一块大电池，回来后再换成小电池，充分享受电池技术升级所带来的红利。现在，BaaS模式购车用户无需购买电池，根据实际使用需求租用不同容量的电池按月支付服务费。BaaS模式购买70度电车型，车价减7万元，每月电池租用服务费980元；BaaS模式购买100度电车型，车价减12.8万元，每月电池租用服务费1480元。现有70度电用户可选择以灵活升级或永久买断的方式升级至100度电，按月支付是每月880元，按年是每年7980元。蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌说了两件事：第一，蔚来在中国市场的新车平均销售单价比特斯拉贵15万元左右;第二，蔚来与特斯拉的用户已不是一类用户，品牌区间上有显著区分。在15万价差对消费者进行了天然筛选后，李斌分享了一个关于续航的日常故事：某天在合肥总部工作结束，需要连夜赶回上海的他，开着70度电的ES8，400多公里的路，只历经一次换电。电池容量增加带来最直观的变化是续航里程显著上升。加装100度电池包后，蔚来全新ES8的续航是580公里，ES6是610公里，EC6是615公里。二、充电桩还是换电站谁才是市场的未来?说实在大多数人都会有一种认知上的心理学偏差，很多时候我们会觉得这个东西被创造出来的时候是这样的，基本上他就是这样的，这种设计总让人有一种理所当然的感觉，然而实际情况却远不是如此，在充电桩和换电站之争中就存在这个显著的问题，我们先说传统充电桩电动车的优势和劣势；从优势的角度出发，传统充电桩电动车是一锤子买卖，大家买车的时候电池基本上就已经被内嵌到汽车之中了，所以你的每一笔支出都会是汽车上的支出，大家对于这种支出其实也都习以为常，自然而然也就不觉得是问题，而且这样的话以后充电的成本非常便宜，在日常的用车过程中，只要你是在城市中代步出行的话，那么开车的成本会非常便宜，也不再担心堵车一脚油门一脚刹车时候的肉疼，可以说，充电桩模式的优势是非常显著的。从劣势的角度出发，充电桩模式的问题也非常明显，这就是充电实在是很耗时的一件事，如果你开在路上突然没电了，基本上除了叫道路救援就没有办法，而且汽车充电的时间相对较长，大家基本上都发现了即使用快充模式也要好几个小时，这对于开车人来说特别是不少网约车等运营车辆来说是完全没办法容忍的事情；当然新能源汽车的贬值也非常严重，一般情况最容易损耗的就是电池，新能源汽车为啥保值率这么低，这和新能源汽车的电池问题可以说是密不可分的，充电桩模式的这种完全内置电池严重影响了汽车的保值；还有就是新能源汽车的充电桩模式对于长途开车无疑是一种巨大的挑战，你如果要开长途要时刻盯着是不是要没电了，即使到了服务区的充电站也要担心是不是没有充电桩了，这对于长途开车几乎就是无解的问题。这个时候，换电站模式也就应运而生了，我们之前看过不少谷歌新能源汽车的概念视频，其采用的就是类似于口香糖式电池包的换电站模式，这种模式下，新能源汽车换电几乎和你在加油站加油没有任何区别，其优劣势我们可以分几个方面来分析：从优势层面来看，用换电站模式来说可以有效地降低购车的成本，毕竟一辆新能源汽车的主要成本的相当大的一部分就在其电池之上，通过换电站的模式可以较好地省去这方面的成本；换电站模式可以降低汽车的使用和减值难题，使用换电站模式的新能源汽车可以完全不必在家中加装充电桩，直接去换电就好了，由于也没有电池的损耗损失，所以其保值的能力会远超传统模式的新能源汽车；开长途也不再是大问题，只需要到换电站换电池就可以非常简单地解决了电池续航所带来的难题。但是，换电站的劣势也非常明显：目前大部分的汽车都不支持换电模式，一旦采用换电模式整个汽车的设计思路都要改变，汽车企业的前期改变成本非常高；而且国家大规模的充电桩建设也都是基于充电模式的，换电模式无疑没能进入国家的基础设施建设的方向之中，一旦要推广这基础设施的建设成本也是相当高的，所以换电在短时间内想要普及还是相对困难，同时，从标准普及的角度出发，换电模式的普及也存在较大的问题，现在换电模式还是各家企业各说各话，没能形成普遍的标准，这就让换电池存在较大的难题，标准通用也将面临巨大的问题；较高的价格也成为阻碍换电模式的重要障碍，我们看到蔚来基本上采用的就是月租的模式，这种月租无论是一千多元的价格，还是880元的月租价格都是相对较高的，远超了传统的燃油车和充电式新能源汽车的用车成本。从目前来说，充电桩还是换电池都是新能源汽车的发展方向，而目前来说谁都各有千秋，哪个模式能最终普及开来，只能说特斯拉和蔚来都将面临巨大的压力，谁能笑到最后可能需要看基础设施建设、成本降低和市场认同度的多种考验了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307022734,"gmtCreate":1605327763328,"gmtModify":1703837548222,"author":{"id":"3464815334077675","authorId":"3464815334077675","name":"mingle_huang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b3a95478f29afc2dee9123b8ff5ec21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464815334077675","authorIdStr":"3464815334077675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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这就是盘后上涨的原因","listText":"@百度 这就是盘后上涨的原因","text":"@百度 这就是盘后上涨的原因","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/915055659","repostId":"2008315465","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":995012784,"gmtCreate":1565716016948,"gmtModify":1704712936102,"author":{"id":"3464815334077675","authorId":"3464815334077675","name":"mingle_huang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b3a95478f29afc2dee9123b8ff5ec21","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3464815334077675","idStr":"3464815334077675"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"学习学习。","listText":"学习学习。","text":"学习学习。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/995012784","repostId":"992543526","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":992543526,"gmtCreate":1565572570863,"gmtModify":1704712600810,"author":{"id":"36979109942400","authorId":"36979109942400","name":"小虎周报","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/f7b172cf773c77a3f0df67695c126b51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36979109942400","idStr":"36979109942400"},"themes":[],"title":"斗鱼：高效运营后游戏直播平台的估值探讨","htmlText":"摘要 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货币化变现与运营效率的提升。随着行业内主播的聚集，斗鱼与虎牙都形成了头部直播平台的马太效应。寡头垄断的均势下，各方都在加紧货币化征程。斗鱼头部主播的比例较大，因此在活跃用户的吸引上较有优势，但虎牙在中尾部主播上的发展让其变现能力更强。 财务数据的改善。在虎牙上市一年后，斗鱼于2019年7月底登陆纳斯达克。两家公司在财务和运营上的竞争相当激烈。但游戏直播的变现优势不及秀场直播，斗鱼的付费用户、单个付费用户平均收入均不及直播行业前辈YY。也因此斗鱼在变现上的潜力依然很大。 内容成本的控制。头部主播给了斗鱼巨大优势，但同时也有较大的内容成本维护。随着腾讯加强对行业主播的规范，未来主播跳槽、直播分成等造成的内容成本有望下降。 利润率上涨将助推估值。随着用户消费能力的增长、平台各种活动的推出、线下活动以及线上广告的加强，未来斗鱼有望继续在利润率上向YY等前辈靠近。以行业平均EV/Sales比率以及P/S等进行相对估值，斗鱼至2019年底每股ADS对应价值应在14.98美元；以DCF估值，至2019年底每股对应价值应在13.44美元。综合平均为14.21美元。 游戏直播行业背景 得益于4G时代网络效率的提升以及上网费用的不断降低，直播市场在这几年的发展如日中天，尤其是娱乐消费需求一直旺盛的游戏类直播。2018年之后，高速发展留下的大量游戏直播平台逐渐形成以斗鱼、虎牙为头部领先平台带领下的寡头垄断行业格局。 根据月独立设备数以及月均活跃用户数(MAU)，游戏直播平台呈现出明显的三个梯队。大于1000万独立设备的虎牙、斗鱼和企鹅电竞为第一梯队，100万-1000万独立设备的触手、龙珠和网易C","text":"摘要 游戏直播行业发展。高速发展的游戏直播市场经过激烈竞争后剩下个别头部平台，斗鱼与虎牙是其中最大的两家。由于游戏行业版权的限制，游戏直播平台都在腾讯的控制之下。腾讯的游戏同时也给了斗鱼巨大的发展空间 货币化变现与运营效率的提升。随着行业内主播的聚集，斗鱼与虎牙都形成了头部直播平台的马太效应。寡头垄断的均势下，各方都在加紧货币化征程。斗鱼头部主播的比例较大，因此在活跃用户的吸引上较有优势，但虎牙在中尾部主播上的发展让其变现能力更强。 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