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2020-08-31

2020/08/31 交易笔记 by 光速能源

2020/08/31 成本现价浮动收益特斯拉(TSLA) 428.19 2,216.99 417.75% 这他妈人生巅峰啊！

2020/08/31 交易笔记 by 光速能源

2020-07-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$牛大

2020-04-02

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$牛大

2020-02-29

$联合保健产品(AHPI)$ 国家安全，停牌3个月

2020-02-20

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 这么好的大市都不涨，也难得啊

2020-02-06

出这样的文章明显有点虚啊！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-01-16

$蔚来(NIO)$ 停牌了，啥情况，难道要发公告辟谣

2019-08-06

$诺亚财富(NOAH)$ 差不多恐慌性杀跌了吧

2018-11-21

$诺亚财富(NOAH)$涨涨涨

2018-06-05

$美光科技(MU)$真是对中国政府的讽刺啊，反垄断调查出来反而涨，看来中国的半导体确实不行。

2018-05-30

$诺亚财富(NOAH)$被香港证监会处罚的那个诺亚是同一个吗？

2017-11-22

$迅雷(XNET)$ 迅雷的堕落之路，如此作死还让人如何爱你？2017-11-22 Win10之家后台满速上传太夸张迅雷U享版你要干什么估计要出事啊

2017-10-29

$AI Powered Equity ETF(AIEQ)$ 这个IBM的watson是个什么鬼，很多领域都能碰到。法律文件阅读、电能数据分析，现在还能选股票！

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等明星中概念股，都有过类似的遭遇。现在看来，真正健康的企业经此一役，似乎都毫发无损。这也印证了那句老话，打败你的从来不是外人，打不败你的会使你更强大。</p><p>当然，这一次瑞幸咖啡反击中的很多做法，有不少地方都值得称道。这对于其他将在境外上市的中国公司有着积极的标本意义。</p><p><strong>一、不慌不忙不打乱仗</strong></p><p>大部分公司遇到这样的事情，一般自己先乱了。</p><p>这种乱，首先表现在对外回应上，公司上下各个岗位都在反击。创始人一种说法，公关总监一种说法，一般都是廖廖数语，只有态度和情绪。公众只当是一个笑话，再次传播。</p><p>出现这样的局面，当然不能怪公众没有判断。人们都有先入为主的心理，像浑水研究发布的虽然是匿名作者提供的报告，但报告的包装、手法、用语都相当专业。我们先来看几句报告的原文：</p><p>“我们动员了92名全职和1418名兼职人员在现场进行监控，成功记录了981个店铺日客流量，覆盖了620家店铺100%的营业时间。”</p><p>“我们统计了每家店的客流量，并记录了从开门到关门的视频，平均每天11.5小时。当我们再次检查人流量和记录的视频时，如果视频监控丢失了超过10分钟的片段，我们就会丢弃一整天的数据。我们的成功率只有54%，因此所有成功的数据都是100%的完整。”</p><p>虽然事后证明，匿名作者提供给浑水研究的的报告，就是花了200元一天，请了不少兼职人员在店面看一看，数一数。数到一杯算一杯，一人多杯算一杯，一个袋子算一杯。有些兼职人员都不在岗，合理想象一下数据。不管调查方法还是调查模型都存在明显问题。</p><p>外界并不清楚这些内幕。这个时候的反击，如果只有情绪和不满，只有一句信息不实，是无法说服公众、媒体和投资人的。就像狗咬人，不能咬回去。那就成了狗咬狗，只会让公众看笑话。到那个时候，大家就都忘记浑水研究到底在质疑什么，各种各样的观点和情绪铺点盖地，又将引发第二轮、第三轮舆情。</p><p><strong>二、有理有据全面回应</strong></p><p>还有一些公司的管理层和董事会，可能连回应都不会发。</p><p>他们认为公司没问题，清者自清、浊者自浊，认为发声明会让事情更复杂，希望通过时间慢慢消化，希望公众慢慢淡忘。</p><p>这只是理想主义的想法。作为一家知名公司，公众和媒体既好奇又关切，一问三不知，无可奉告，只会火上浇油，甚至会引会部分媒体盲目跟风。这个时候的媒体，已经预先设置了立场，公众能够看到的公司形象，只有闪铄其词，答非所问，避虚就实。</p><p>一切都会向着最坏的方向发展。</p><p>这就是我想重点分析的，瑞幸咖啡声明中的学问。浑水研究的报告，主要问题还是调查方法不科学，分析结论预设立场。瑞幸咖啡针对不实指控一条一条回应。你质疑什么，我解答什么，见招折招，没有套话。</p><p>报告中质疑，2019年第三季度和第四季度店均日销售商品数被虚增。</p><p>瑞幸回应称，订单都是通过线上完成，并且自动记录在公司系统中，所有订单付款是通过第三方支付商完成。瑞幸咖啡的意思是说，每一个订单数据都是自动生成的，同时还生成了第三方的支付数据。就算你可以更改订单数据，改不了支付数据，这两个数据互相验证，完全可以确保订单的真实性。</p><p>报告中还质疑，2019年第三季度其他产品净收入被夸大。</p><p>瑞幸在回应中称，主要是该报告作者在计算来自其他产品净收入时参考了增值税，这明显存在对公司非现制产品适用增值税税率的误解，进而基于这一错误和毫无根据的假设而提出了不实指控。意思也非常简单，你用一个错误的方法，得出一个结论，然后根据这个结论，进行质疑。</p><p>看过这么多公司声明，这也是迄今为止最扎实、最强硬、最有底气的声明之一。</p><p><strong>三、步步推进强硬回击</strong></p><p>瑞幸咖啡的强硬还体现在其他细节中。</p><p>以前，很多公司的声明，都会加上一句“公司将保留追究法律责任的权利”。这句话的意思是说，暂时因为某些原因没有追究责任，但不排除以后可以提起诉讼追究责任的权利。这句话并不属于法律专业术语，也没有什么实质意义。</p><p>瑞幸咖啡在声明中明确说了，将采取措施追索这些恶意指控，以保护股东们的利益。也就是说，瑞幸咖啡不会只会一个声明了事，将会采取相关行动，追究恶意指控。</p><p>这在资本市场是有先例的。8年前，有做空机构得到匿名作者报告，以自己的名义发表，结果被香港证监会认定为“reckless”，罚没做空所得，负责人也被禁入香港市场五年。</p><p>一切显然还未结束，做空事件发生后，多家机构也纷纷表态。</p><p>“我们认为匿名沽空报告，主要基于不具代表性的草根调研和主观推断，亦缺乏有效证据。”2月4日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>披露研报分析，浑水研究报告中，单店平均观察时间约1.6天，单店平均小票数量仅11.7张，将观察不足2天的数据及少量小票信息递推至整个季度，样本数量有限缺乏合理性，另外报告对单店运营数据虚增的指控缺乏有效证据。</p><p>香橼资本创始人Andrew Left表态更为直接，如果瑞幸咖啡能克服全球公共卫生事件所带来的负面影响，该公司股价或将翻番至60美元。</p><p>2月4日晚间美股开盘，瑞幸咖啡在盘初即发力上行，盘中一度涨逾17%，截至收盘报36.24美元，大涨15.60%。</p><p>浑水研究做空中概股也不是首次失手。2012年做空新东方，新东方在短暂下跌后由于正面回应而回归正常。在和安踏来来回回长达5次的拉锯战中，安踏股价也不跌反涨。</p><p>是的，做空机制与做多机制一样，对完善的资本市场十分重要。不过，首先要确保引用数据准确，分析方法科学。只顾浑水摸鱼，鱼没摸到还会一身腥。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞幸这一波反击浑水，有不少做法值得称道</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞幸这一波反击浑水，有不少做法值得称道\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-02-06 16:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020020621491779a69389&s=b><strong>湘财经加</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2月3日，瑞幸咖啡发布声明，全面回应国外做空机构浑水研究发布的匿名作者报告，甚至表示将采取措施来追索恶意指控，以保护股东们的利益。被美国做空机构突袭，已经是明星中概股的标配。在此之前，新东方、唯品会、京东、360､陌陌、拼多多等明星中概念股，都有过类似的遭遇。现在看来，真正健康的企业经此一役，似乎都毫发无损。这也印证了那句老话，打败你的从来不是外人，打不败你的会使你更强大。当然，这一次瑞幸咖啡反击...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020020621491779a69389&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d12f820102df1859c1d25e4011ee104","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2020020621491779a69389&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2009517342","content_text":"2月3日，瑞幸咖啡发布声明，全面回应国外做空机构浑水研究发布的匿名作者报告，甚至表示将采取措施来追索恶意指控，以保护股东们的利益。被美国做空机构突袭，已经是明星中概股的标配。在此之前，新东方、唯品会、京东、360､陌陌、拼多多等明星中概念股，都有过类似的遭遇。现在看来，真正健康的企业经此一役，似乎都毫发无损。这也印证了那句老话，打败你的从来不是外人，打不败你的会使你更强大。当然，这一次瑞幸咖啡反击中的很多做法，有不少地方都值得称道。这对于其他将在境外上市的中国公司有着积极的标本意义。一、不慌不忙不打乱仗大部分公司遇到这样的事情，一般自己先乱了。这种乱，首先表现在对外回应上，公司上下各个岗位都在反击。创始人一种说法，公关总监一种说法，一般都是廖廖数语，只有态度和情绪。公众只当是一个笑话，再次传播。出现这样的局面，当然不能怪公众没有判断。人们都有先入为主的心理，像浑水研究发布的虽然是匿名作者提供的报告，但报告的包装、手法、用语都相当专业。我们先来看几句报告的原文：“我们动员了92名全职和1418名兼职人员在现场进行监控，成功记录了981个店铺日客流量，覆盖了620家店铺100%的营业时间。”“我们统计了每家店的客流量，并记录了从开门到关门的视频，平均每天11.5小时。当我们再次检查人流量和记录的视频时，如果视频监控丢失了超过10分钟的片段，我们就会丢弃一整天的数据。我们的成功率只有54%，因此所有成功的数据都是100%的完整。”虽然事后证明，匿名作者提供给浑水研究的的报告，就是花了200元一天，请了不少兼职人员在店面看一看，数一数。数到一杯算一杯，一人多杯算一杯，一个袋子算一杯。有些兼职人员都不在岗，合理想象一下数据。不管调查方法还是调查模型都存在明显问题。外界并不清楚这些内幕。这个时候的反击，如果只有情绪和不满，只有一句信息不实，是无法说服公众、媒体和投资人的。就像狗咬人，不能咬回去。那就成了狗咬狗，只会让公众看笑话。到那个时候，大家就都忘记浑水研究到底在质疑什么，各种各样的观点和情绪铺点盖地，又将引发第二轮、第三轮舆情。二、有理有据全面回应还有一些公司的管理层和董事会，可能连回应都不会发。他们认为公司没问题，清者自清、浊者自浊，认为发声明会让事情更复杂，希望通过时间慢慢消化，希望公众慢慢淡忘。这只是理想主义的想法。作为一家知名公司，公众和媒体既好奇又关切，一问三不知，无可奉告，只会火上浇油，甚至会引会部分媒体盲目跟风。这个时候的媒体，已经预先设置了立场，公众能够看到的公司形象，只有闪铄其词，答非所问，避虚就实。一切都会向着最坏的方向发展。这就是我想重点分析的，瑞幸咖啡声明中的学问。浑水研究的报告，主要问题还是调查方法不科学，分析结论预设立场。瑞幸咖啡针对不实指控一条一条回应。你质疑什么，我解答什么，见招折招，没有套话。报告中质疑，2019年第三季度和第四季度店均日销售商品数被虚增。瑞幸回应称，订单都是通过线上完成，并且自动记录在公司系统中，所有订单付款是通过第三方支付商完成。瑞幸咖啡的意思是说，每一个订单数据都是自动生成的，同时还生成了第三方的支付数据。就算你可以更改订单数据，改不了支付数据，这两个数据互相验证，完全可以确保订单的真实性。报告中还质疑，2019年第三季度其他产品净收入被夸大。瑞幸在回应中称，主要是该报告作者在计算来自其他产品净收入时参考了增值税，这明显存在对公司非现制产品适用增值税税率的误解，进而基于这一错误和毫无根据的假设而提出了不实指控。意思也非常简单，你用一个错误的方法，得出一个结论，然后根据这个结论，进行质疑。看过这么多公司声明，这也是迄今为止最扎实、最强硬、最有底气的声明之一。三、步步推进强硬回击瑞幸咖啡的强硬还体现在其他细节中。以前，很多公司的声明，都会加上一句“公司将保留追究法律责任的权利”。这句话的意思是说，暂时因为某些原因没有追究责任，但不排除以后可以提起诉讼追究责任的权利。这句话并不属于法律专业术语，也没有什么实质意义。瑞幸咖啡在声明中明确说了，将采取措施追索这些恶意指控，以保护股东们的利益。也就是说，瑞幸咖啡不会只会一个声明了事，将会采取相关行动，追究恶意指控。这在资本市场是有先例的。8年前，有做空机构得到匿名作者报告，以自己的名义发表，结果被香港证监会认定为“reckless”，罚没做空所得，负责人也被禁入香港市场五年。一切显然还未结束，做空事件发生后，多家机构也纷纷表态。“我们认为匿名沽空报告，主要基于不具代表性的草根调研和主观推断，亦缺乏有效证据。”2月4日，中金公司披露研报分析，浑水研究报告中，单店平均观察时间约1.6天，单店平均小票数量仅11.7张，将观察不足2天的数据及少量小票信息递推至整个季度，样本数量有限缺乏合理性，另外报告对单店运营数据虚增的指控缺乏有效证据。香橼资本创始人Andrew Left表态更为直接，如果瑞幸咖啡能克服全球公共卫生事件所带来的负面影响，该公司股价或将翻番至60美元。2月4日晚间美股开盘，瑞幸咖啡在盘初即发力上行，盘中一度涨逾17%，截至收盘报36.24美元，大涨15.60%。浑水研究做空中概股也不是首次失手。2012年做空新东方，新东方在短暂下跌后由于正面回应而回归正常。在和安踏来来回回长达5次的拉锯战中，安踏股价也不跌反涨。是的，做空机制与做多机制一样，对完善的资本市场十分重要。不过，首先要确保引用数据准确，分析方法科学。只顾浑水摸鱼，鱼没摸到还会一身腥。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943579876,"gmtCreate":1594657226595,"gmtModify":1704206260962,"author":{"id":"3464656918141393","authorId":"3464656918141393","name":"光速能源","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce78cf4a1e5089418de66b45f6ec595","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464656918141393","authorIdStr":"3464656918141393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>牛大","listText":"<a 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