瑞大神的个人主页 - 老虎社区

瑞大神

瑞大神

色狼适合炒股

IP属地：北京

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06-06

$NVDA 20240628 975.0 PUT$ 拆股前准备平仓了哦

05-28

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ 买这个比直接买NVDA爽

05-25

$NVDA 20240614 960.0 PUT$ 昨天sell一个月内到期的put，应该不会到行权价

05-25

2024/05/25 交易笔记 by 瑞大神

2024/05/25 成本现价浮动收益英伟达(NVDA) 526.34 1,069.00 103.10% 买的时候感觉估值水平不高不低，但往后看3-5年，这个价是个非常低估的价格，所以市盈率是历史数据，未来成长性才是关键

2024/05/25 交易笔记 by 瑞大神

2023-08-16

.o

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-08-16

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-08-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-08-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-08-17

$SE 20230120 70.0 PUT$趁着大跌套利一把

2022-07-31

$TSLA 20221118 750.0 PUT$特斯拉永远是sell put最优标的

2022-04-01

$蔚来(NIO)$总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右

2022-01-24

捡钱的时候来了，计划逢低定投买入TQQQ，备好子弹，怕熬不住的，可以卖远期看跌期权

2022-01-14

为啥纳指盘前是涨的，TQQQ是跌的？

2021-07-01

$NIO 20211217 50.0 CALL(NIO)$一周的时间

2021-07-01

牛逼

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-29

$NIO 20211217 50.0 CALL(NIO)$持有到年底，看看能涨多少！

2021-06-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$准备持有3-5年

2021-06-28

$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来下个目标应该是市值超过比亚迪

2021-06-28

$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉涨幅是三傻的一半[财迷]

2021-06-18

$特斯拉(TSLA)$高瓴一季度建仓蔚来小鹏，没有建仓特斯拉说明了什么？

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买的时候感觉估值水平不高不低，但往后看3-5年，这个价是个非常低估的价格，所以市盈率是历史数据，未来成长性才是关键","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4421fee221b3fc73a4107353891e3324","width":"1200","height":"2133"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309674192146432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3546249304196282","authorIdStr":"3546249304196282"},"content":"而且伴随发展不知道哪天又会有新的爆发点","text":"而且伴随发展不知道哪天又会有新的爆发点","html":"而且伴随发展不知道哪天又会有新的爆发点"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":209616775450768,"gmtCreate":1692181572825,"gmtModify":1692181574201,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":".o","listText":".o","text":".o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209616775450768","repostId":"2359880470","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":209616765280416,"gmtCreate":1692181570393,"gmtModify":1692181571520,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;","text":"","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209616765280416","repostId":"2359880470","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":209616741437664,"gmtCreate":1692181566874,"gmtModify":1692181567881,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209616741437664","repostId":"2359880470","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":209616169619632,"gmtCreate":1692181565763,"gmtModify":1692181567121,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/209616169619632","repostId":"2359880470","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687048105,"gmtCreate":1660666655712,"gmtModify":1660666655712,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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今晚还是高开低走，支撑位12750附近","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321789487","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"125194940475664","authorId":"125194940475664","name":"独立分析师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/80756a3bdeb5c29a5cc7e822601b2183","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"125194940475664","authorIdStr":"125194940475664"},"content":"早点睡吧，做个梦","text":"早点睡吧，做个梦","html":"早点睡吧，做个梦"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166569165,"gmtCreate":1624018326857,"gmtModify":1624025150960,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉如果不做出改变，将会像三星对于智能手机一样的结果，未来智能电动车的赢家将会出现在中国，但目前说是蔚来已经成功还为时过早","listText":"特斯拉如果不做出改变，将会像三星对于智能手机一样的结果，未来智能电动车的赢家将会出现在中国，但目前说是蔚来已经成功还为时过早","text":"特斯拉如果不做出改变，将会像三星对于智能手机一样的结果，未来智能电动车的赢家将会出现在中国，但目前说是蔚来已经成功还为时过早","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166569165","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3503886143498202","authorId":"3503886143498202","name":"kabuda","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b82a0dbdcd4b533b3a24b941b610920","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3503886143498202","authorIdStr":"3503886143498202"},"content":"三星？ 就是目前全球第二的三星吗","text":"三星？ 就是目前全球第二的三星吗","html":"三星？ 就是目前全球第二的三星吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940437567,"gmtCreate":1594038522359,"gmtModify":1704203606224,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>有人问我NIO短期是不是高估了，这个我不知道，我只知道按照目前发展趋势，3年保守估计能上600，蔚来目前在吃BBA的市场","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>有人问我NIO短期是不是高估了，这个我不知道，我只知道按照目前发展趋势，3年保守估计能上600，蔚来目前在吃BBA的市场","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$有人问我NIO短期是不是高估了，这个我不知道，我只知道按照目前发展趋势，3年保守估计能上600，蔚来目前在吃BBA的市场","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a56ec832ac7599f53c98ac69a6970fe","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940437567","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3551069398115295","authorId":"3551069398115295","name":"Sword57","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a692d2c4847ba4e01a32b549f019a77c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3551069398115295","authorIdStr":"3551069398115295"},"content":"600就有点胡说八道了，接近7000亿市值？你先看看总股本。。。","text":"600就有点胡说八道了，接近7000亿市值？你先看看总股本。。。","html":"600就有点胡说八道了，接近7000亿市值？你先看看总股本。。。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":314420471,"gmtCreate":1612367803893,"gmtModify":1703761027642,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>海底捞的服务，小米的粉丝效应，星巴克的线下模式，没有道理不持有，传统车企玩不出来的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>海底捞的服务，小米的粉丝效应，星巴克的线下模式，没有道理不持有，传统车企玩不出来的。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$海底捞的服务，小米的粉丝效应，星巴克的线下模式，没有道理不持有，传统车企玩不出来的。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76f89c1e617829abd2df3d15e9ee57a5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/314420471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3554863204555822","authorId":"3554863204555822","name":"So_1929","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4401b9beb2dc0e2688d07a45379f992a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3554863204555822","authorIdStr":"3554863204555822"},"content":"何时盈利？为了股价，故事还可以讲很多","text":"何时盈利？为了股价，故事还可以讲很多","html":"何时盈利？为了股价，故事还可以讲很多"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166460978,"gmtCreate":1624022935494,"gmtModify":1624022935494,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"记得去年nio的市值只有特斯拉的十分之一，而且基本是跟着特斯拉涨跌，目前已经达到八分之一，而且涨跌已经跑出独立行情，未来达到二分之一甚至赶超还远么？2025年见分晓吧","listText":"记得去年nio的市值只有特斯拉的十分之一，而且基本是跟着特斯拉涨跌，目前已经达到八分之一，而且涨跌已经跑出独立行情，未来达到二分之一甚至赶超还远么？2025年见分晓吧","text":"记得去年nio的市值只有特斯拉的十分之一，而且基本是跟着特斯拉涨跌，目前已经达到八分之一，而且涨跌已经跑出独立行情，未来达到二分之一甚至赶超还远么？2025年见分晓吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166460978","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3481586686372684","authorId":"3481586686372684","name":"遥望星空2050","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b8ee9075732ea76476816e3c815d88","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3481586686372684","authorIdStr":"3481586686372684"},"content":"你要是说法拉弟未来，我还信点，梁静茹的勇气别没事天天都唱，唱多了会自我**","text":"你要是说法拉弟未来，我还信点，梁静茹的勇气别没事天天都唱，唱多了会自我**","html":"你要是说法拉弟未来，我还信点，梁静茹的勇气别没事天天都唱，唱多了会自我**"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":619062144,"gmtCreate":1648824023816,"gmtModify":1648824057597,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$总有人喷蔚来销量不如小鹏，不看成交价只看销量纯属耍流氓，而且小鹏有一部分销量是B端用户，小鹏成交均价差不多也就是蔚来的一半，按照特斯拉年销量40万，毛利20%实现盈利，小鹏按照目前毛利，起码要年销量达到70-80W辆才能盈利，蔚来基本上和特斯拉一样，年40-50万辆就能盈利，而且蔚来要开拓下沉市场后，小鹏是否会受影响很难说，所以说这就是为啥小鹏销量高，但市值还是比蔚来小100亿左右","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619062144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3532649651707460","authorId":"3532649651707460","name":"PJPJPJJJ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3532649651707460","authorIdStr":"3532649651707460"},"content":"黑子哪管你这么多，喷就完了。自媒体也在标题党带节奏。","text":"黑子哪管你这么多，喷就完了。自媒体也在标题党带节奏。","html":"黑子哪管你这么多，喷就完了。自媒体也在标题党带节奏。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310807050830024,"gmtCreate":1716908419943,"gmtModify":1716908422984,"author":{"id":"3464259478779171","authorId":"3464259478779171","name":"瑞大神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fd4d0347ce73d3de86677c423aaeabd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3464259478779171","authorIdStr":"3464259478779171"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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