刘阳leo的个人主页 - 老虎社区

刘阳leo

刘阳leo

好股票合适的买入价比上车更重要；不买低于1亿流通的股票

IP属地：浙江

120关注

20粉丝

3主题

0勋章

2020-07-11

$微美全息(WIMI)$埋伏半个月收获的季节就来了

2018-07-04

$SeaDrill Ltd(SDRL)$坑啊 3000股合成11股一股按成本84块，擦

2020-02-07

$趣店(QD)$说做空的你倒是卖完全割肉啊，我要拿到3.18出财报后，你看涨不涨。前三季度业绩超去年四季度就是划水业绩也好过去年，也会一定程度反映在股价上。这就是我看多的原因

2019-06-20

$蔚来(NIO)$ 做空不看好的想啥呢不看新闻啊 es6都首发交车了。哪个国产做到了卖30万以上还出第二辆辆车车的。那些新能源企业早被甩后面了。看国外特斯拉竞争是强没国产啊价格高啊还是轿车这年头SUV一家人用才合适好嘛。而且蔚来是服务公司不是专卖汽车的汽车界的海底捞[得意] 赞同的互相关注哈我们一起拿住一起飞[贱笑]

2020-03-19

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$这个股的最高值，不是看价格而是看疫情。目前美国疫情不可控，看涨的点赞👍

2020-02-05

$趣店(QD)$坐等反弹我就要等两个月等到出财报

2020-02-19

$趣店(QD)$我都想割肉了就我买啥啥跌卖啥啥涨的眼光，这股是不是快涨了啊

2020-02-11

$趣店(QD)$最近开盘和收盘都有十几万几十万的大单买入不知道大家发现没有[微笑]是不是主力进场吸筹准备拉盘了？

2019-07-03

$蔚来(NIO)$ 估计空头被拉爆了，这股只适合短期做空，长期肯定做多

2020-06-17

$爱奇艺(IQ)$卖了

2019-06-21

$蔚来(NIO)$ 空军使劲空真要空到我持仓均价2.54以下我加仓一倍

2020-06-16

$爱奇艺(IQ)$难得一见

2018-07-03

$SeaDrill Ltd(SDRL)$睡觉股票被锁定了啥交易都搞不了但愿美国还是保护小股民的明天九点半再来

2020-07-24

$百世集团(BEST)$有谁知道远期期权call，交易量突然大幅增加几十倍代表什么吗，求教ing$蔚来(NIO)$$阿里巴巴(BABA)$

2019-03-03

$老虎中美互联网巨头ETF(TTTN)$ 为啥没成分股里面没有苹果它不也是互联网公司吗

2020-07-31

$谷歌A(GOOGL)$难得的4%下跌，我小资金买入了期权，目标赚一倍。

2020-02-22

$趣店(QD)$看好它赶紧涨我3.8上的车现在还在车底吃土

2019-06-19

$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 下一个老虎嘛超过180我就加大做空

2020-07-15

等着踏空悔青肠子吧

@张顺顺:$红黄蓝(RYB)$把涉事幼儿园彻底关闭，我会考虑再买你

2020-07-11

回复 @renyi122:昨天开盘我才知道9号，马爸爸在世界人工智能大会上用全息投影实时演讲。然后就被拉爆了。//@renyi122:这个很牛啊，突然就牛了

@刘阳leo:$微美全息(WIMI)$埋伏半个月收获的季节就来了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953918511","repostId":"953079466","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":953079466,"gmtCreate":1590070354755,"gmtModify":1704191732530,"author":{"id":"3535864168116962","authorId":"3535864168116962","name":"LIULIULIU","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ccda2b82474dfe0a8c474303d169c67","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如何应对庄家洗盘？&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;庄家洗盘的目的主要是为了迫使不坚定的散户出居，或者借洗盘的机会做高抛低吸的操作，使自己的持仓成本进一步降低。庄家洗盘的最终目的是为了最后的拉升做准备，要在洗盘阶段尽量减少后续拉升的成本。此外庄家洗盘的时间跨度要根据其介入资金量的大小以及控盘程度来决定。如果因为洗盘时间过短而造成最终拉升不成功，那对主力造成的损失将是十分巨大的。总之主力洗盘是为了后续更好的拉升，从而盈利。&nbsp;均线在洗盘过程中的支撑作用&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;然而在不出现意外的情况下，不管主力怎么洗盘，一些重要的均线是绝对不会有效跌破的，主力洗盘可能会触及一下均线，但是只是轻轻触碰，到位后会马上出现反弹，特别是一些长期均线，主力洗盘时一般都不会触及。洗盘时主力最多也就是触及一下5日和10日均线，其他周期的均线主力很少触碰。这种规律是有其深层次原因的。此外，主力也是人，在制定作战计划的时候也会提前制定好战略战术目标，所以大多数洗盘的战术性目标就是以重要均线作为参考的。因为主力非常清楚的知道一些均线（比如5日，10日均线）是散户的重要心理关口和持仓成本线。一旦触及到这些关口散户就会由于恐慌而抛出手中的股票。&nbsp;洗盘的限度&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;然而主力洗盘也是有限度的，为什么不进行更深幅度的调整呢？原因还是因为成本。主力洗盘也是需要成本的。为了使股价出现适当幅度的下跌，主力会进行主动的卖出动作，这就需要消耗一部分主力的筹码。如果主力手中的筹码有限那么洗盘力度自然很难深入。特别是对一些优质股票而言，绝大多数筹码都掌握在大股东和其他机构手中，市场中流通的筹码是有限的。如果出现幅度过大的洗盘，市场中的其他投资者就会来抢夺廉价的筹码，从而使主力“失血过多”而丧失对盘面的掌控能力","listText":"如何应对庄家洗盘？&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;庄家洗盘的目的主要是为了迫使不坚定的散户出居，或者借洗盘的机会做高抛低吸的操作，使自己的持仓成本进一步降低。庄家洗盘的最终目的是为了最后的拉升做准备，要在洗盘阶段尽量减少后续拉升的成本。此外庄家洗盘的时间跨度要根据其介入资金量的大小以及控盘程度来决定。如果因为洗盘时间过短而造成最终拉升不成功，那对主力造成的损失将是十分巨大的。总之主力洗盘是为了后续更好的拉升，从而盈利。&nbsp;均线在洗盘过程中的支撑作用&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;然而在不出现意外的情况下，不管主力怎么洗盘，一些重要的均线是绝对不会有效跌破的，主力洗盘可能会触及一下均线，但是只是轻轻触碰，到位后会马上出现反弹，特别是一些长期均线，主力洗盘时一般都不会触及。洗盘时主力最多也就是触及一下5日和10日均线，其他周期的均线主力很少触碰。这种规律是有其深层次原因的。此外，主力也是人，在制定作战计划的时候也会提前制定好战略战术目标，所以大多数洗盘的战术性目标就是以重要均线作为参考的。因为主力非常清楚的知道一些均线（比如5日，10日均线）是散户的重要心理关口和持仓成本线。一旦触及到这些关口散户就会由于恐慌而抛出手中的股票。&nbsp;洗盘的限度&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;然而主力洗盘也是有限度的，为什么不进行更深幅度的调整呢？原因还是因为成本。主力洗盘也是需要成本的。为了使股价出现适当幅度的下跌，主力会进行主动的卖出动作，这就需要消耗一部分主力的筹码。如果主力手中的筹码有限那么洗盘力度自然很难深入。特别是对一些优质股票而言，绝大多数筹码都掌握在大股东和其他机构手中，市场中流通的筹码是有限的。如果出现幅度过大的洗盘，市场中的其他投资者就会来抢夺廉价的筹码，从而使主力“失血过多”而丧失对盘面的掌控能力","text":"如何应对庄家洗盘？ 庄家洗盘的目的主要是为了迫使不坚定的散户出居，或者借洗盘的机会做高抛低吸的操作，使自己的持仓成本进一步降低。庄家洗盘的最终目的是为了最后的拉升做准备，要在洗盘阶段尽量减少后续拉升的成本。此外庄家洗盘的时间跨度要根据其介入资金量的大小以及控盘程度来决定。如果因为洗盘时间过短而造成最终拉升不成功，那对主力造成的损失将是十分巨大的。总之主力洗盘是为了后续更好的拉升，从而盈利。 均线在洗盘过程中的支撑作用 然而在不出现意外的情况下，不管主力怎么洗盘，一些重要的均线是绝对不会有效跌破的，主力洗盘可能会触及一下均线，但是只是轻轻触碰，到位后会马上出现反弹，特别是一些长期均线，主力洗盘时一般都不会触及。洗盘时主力最多也就是触及一下5日和10日均线，其他周期的均线主力很少触碰。这种规律是有其深层次原因的。此外，主力也是人，在制定作战计划的时候也会提前制定好战略战术目标，所以大多数洗盘的战术性目标就是以重要均线作为参考的。因为主力非常清楚的知道一些均线（比如5日，10日均线）是散户的重要心理关口和持仓成本线。一旦触及到这些关口散户就会由于恐慌而抛出手中的股票。 洗盘的限度 然而主力洗盘也是有限度的，为什么不进行更深幅度的调整呢？原因还是因为成本。主力洗盘也是需要成本的。为了使股价出现适当幅度的下跌，主力会进行主动的卖出动作，这就需要消耗一部分主力的筹码。如果主力手中的筹码有限那么洗盘力度自然很难深入。特别是对一些优质股票而言，绝大多数筹码都掌握在大股东和其他机构手中，市场中流通的筹码是有限的。如果出现幅度过大的洗盘，市场中的其他投资者就会来抢夺廉价的筹码，从而使主力“失血过多”而丧失对盘面的掌控能力","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26c525be15a58e972c9b2e7cbbeebbb8","width":"690","height":"1016"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953079466","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967823892,"gmtCreate":1584570970916,"gmtModify":1704355042343,"author":{"id":"3461814969445393","authorId":"3461814969445393","name":"刘阳leo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a7777ce8f8f8135fcc9de773c644d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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而是看疫情。目前美国疫情不可控，看涨的点赞👍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad45ccacc1b0f40f5cfce7ecdd3e25e","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967823892","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3543633118542668","authorId":"3543633118542668","name":"东方硕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"美股跌了好多","text":"美股跌了好多","html":"美股跌了好多"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983921611,"gmtCreate":1583121820633,"gmtModify":1704348677247,"author":{"id":"3461814969445393","authorId":"3461814969445393","name":"刘阳leo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a7777ce8f8f8135fcc9de773c644d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买买买","listText":"买买买","text":"买买买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983921611","repostId":"1145533819","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145533819","pubTimestamp":1583117506,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145533819?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-02 10:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"现在的港股，恐怕是全球最低估的股市！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145533819","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"2018年以来的港股，陷入了“老鼠进风箱——两头受气”的阶段。\n2018年从年初到年底，由于受到中美贸易战的影响，中国股市暴跌，而港股的上市公司中恰恰以中资公司为主，于是港股受牵连而暴跌；\n接下来，伴","content":"<p><span>2018年以来的港股，陷入了“老鼠进风箱——两头受气”的阶段。</span></p>\n<p><span>2018年从年初到年底，由于受到中美贸易战的影响，中国股市暴跌，而港股的上市公司中恰恰以中资公司为主，于是港股受牵连而暴跌；</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来，伴随着全球股市2019年的小阳春，港股好不容易也跟着涨了一小波。但是从2019年年中开始，随着“占中”事件愈演愈烈，香港社会陷入撕裂，街头冲突不断，于是港股自然是一路下行；</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年底迄今，A股又来了一波反弹，港股很显然是想奋力直追，把失去的点位给追回来，没想到，春节后又遭遇新冠疫情当头一棒；</span></p>\n<p><span>幸好我大A股皮粗肉厚，春节一日暴跌之后继续上涨，但没想到在全球疫情扩散之下，美股股市却又在上周暴跌。向来看美股脸色行事的港股，赶紧亦步亦趋跟着来了一个暴跌……</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0092edd21a57b700629fc9301ec06e02\"></p>\n<p><span>看我公众号的人都知道，在过去的一年多当中，每当港股的恒生指数（HSI）跌至26000点附近或者以下，我就会明确发出“抄底”港股的消息。</span></p>\n<p><span>“抄底港股”</span></p>\n<p><span>“为什么我建议大家考虑抄底港股？”</span></p>\n<p><span>“抄底港股的正确姿势”</span></p>\n<p><span>现在，当恒生指数再一次跌至这个点位附近，我是不是还坚持原来的观点呢？</span></p>\n<p><span>答案是：</span><span><b>当然！</b></span></p>\n<p><span>截止2月28日周五，以恒生指数和恒生国企指数的市盈率作为衡量标准，无论从安全性和流动性上考虑，或者是从市场容量和投资便捷性上考虑，与全球其他任何国家的股市相比，港股几乎都是相当有吸引力的资产。</span></p>\n<p><span>先不说什么疫情，只从股市本身的估值考虑，来进行历史的纵向对比和全球的横向对比。</span></p>\n<p><span>下面的图表，是恒生指数1973年迄今48年的估值情况，目前恒生指数10.9倍的市盈率、恒生国企指数8.6倍的市盈率，至少属于历史上5年一遇的低位。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67420e34a5487d756ea38f89b83bdafc\"></p>\n<p><span>A股的历史太短，我们可以拿恒生指数历史上几次严重的低估时期，与美国道琼斯工业指数历史上几次严重低估时期，做一个对比。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/218ba3444db2f6980ca76608a1e74ad0\"></p>\n<p><span>新冠疫情的影响的确很严重，但它至于影响到这种地步么？目前的恒生指数和恒生国企指数的低估，几乎与2008年金融危机对美国股票指数的影响相去不远，至于么？</span></p>\n<p><span>比完了历史，比现在。</span></p>\n<p><span>下面的这个表格，是上周全球主要国家的股市估值情况（标注了市盈率及当前市盈率所在的历史百分位、市净率及当前市净率所在的百分位，数据来源于Wind，我们借鉴朋友的计算结果，由小助手在小红圈公布每周的估值变动。除各国股市估值之外，还有美股、A股和港股的行业估值变动）。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d08f4f7e8184aafdb2d03a0e1c3d4c\"></p>\n<p><span>对比上面的数据可以发现，以PE来衡量，目前恒生指数的估值，仅高于土耳其、俄罗斯、埃及和奥地利的股市，如果拿恒生国企指数8.6的PE来比较，那么港股里中资企业的整体估值，仅高于俄罗斯的股市估值。</span></p>\n<p><span>（在普京大帝20年的管理之下，今天的俄罗斯整体经济规模，也就和广东省规模相当——再想想20年前，普京竞选总统的时候，曾豪言壮语，“给我20年，还你一个强大的俄罗斯”，真令人唏嘘）</span></p>\n<p><span>不会真的有人认为，香港股市和土耳其、俄罗斯、埃及股市是一个层次吧？</span></p>\n<p><span>有人说了，香港股市主要以代表旧经济的金融和地产为主，是夕阳行业，估值低是正常现象。</span></p>\n<p><span>那好，香港是国际大都市，其资本市场也是完全国际化的，我们不妨拿港股的行业指数，和美国标普500的行业指数估值来做个比较。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae5cfee9ef0af57fe6381fb643564ab\"></p>\n<p><span>显然，无论是整体的工业估值还是消费行业估值，再从公共事业、房地产、原材料、能源，甚至是科技、金融、原材料行业的上市公司，香港股市的估值，都远低于标普相关的行业，甚至只有美国同行业公司估值的一半。</span></p>\n<p><span>好吧，你可能又会说，人家美帝的公司都是全球性的公司，是行业龙头，在全球都有很强的吸血能力，代表着全球最顶尖的科技水平，比方说现在美股里TOP5的公司——微软、苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、脸书公司，香港的企业有什么资格和人家比PE？</span></p>\n<p><span>嗯，虽然说，资本赚钱不分科技能力高低，但这真的是个很强大的理由，我一下子竟然无言以对。</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来，我只能默默地把我们大A股的行业估值表格拿出来，对比一下香港的行业指数——显然，香港的这些行业指数所包含的那些公司，整体上和A股的行业指数估值类似，这样比较应该没啥问题了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35697a8b0cd6bcb6156b84e0ea8bc8df\"></p>\n<p><span>与我们大A股的行业指数对比之后，你是不是还是发现，港股的行业指数也全面低于我们大A股啊！</span></p>\n<p><span>就拿刚才提到最能代表“旧经济”的地产和金融行业板块来说，我们大A股的中证全指房地产指数的平均市盈率是8.91、中证银行指数和证券指数分别是6.23和30.02，而恒生金融和恒生地产板块的估值都是7.34。</span></p>\n<p><span>——这么说其实有点复杂，你直接去查看同时在A股和H股两地上市的那些同股同权的股票，H股现在的价格，平均大概只有A股的一半！</span></p>\n<p><span>你说港股低估不低估呢？</span></p>\n<p><span>有人又说了，A股因为被圈在池子里，所以一直存在着超高溢价，也是自A股成立以来的老问题，虽然港股比A股便宜很多，但也并不意味着买了港股就会涨啊！</span></p>\n<p><span>貌似也很有道理呢！</span></p>\n<p><span>好，那我们就来分析一下AH股的历史溢价（见下图）。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8213977fc381c3629d66cb763c9f22\"></p>\n<p><span>自从有A+H股以来，历史上A股相对于H股溢价达到或超出目前水平的高点有6次：</span><span><b>2007年1月-2008年6月、2008年10月-2009年7月、2011年9月、2014年12月-2016年7月、2017年6-12月和2019年6月-迄今。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>这种高溢价的存在有两种可能：</span></p>\n<p><span>1、A股过分高估；2、H股过分低估。</span></p>\n<p><span>2007年和2015年，大家都知道是中国股市的大牛市，A股被炒到了极致，中石油登顶全球市值第一的宝座，这个时候的溢价只能说明A股严重高估而不是H股低估；</span></p>\n<p><span>2011年极短时间内的高溢价，是因为创业板被爆炒，A股估值过高；</span></p>\n<p><span>2017年下半年的高溢价，是因为中国的蓝筹股被爆炒，A股估值过高；</span></p>\n<p><span>——只有2008年-2009年和现在，A股的估值已经被杀下去，在历史平均估值水平以下，这个时候的AH高溢价，才是港股真正低估的时段！</span></p>\n<p><span>全球股市的横向对比分析完了，与A股对比的溢价历史也分析完了，大家应该也大致明白港股现在到底是不是低估了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f65cec33d67053e2263f41dc5ce76a4\"></p>\n<p><span>但是，喜欢一直追问的人，可能还是会问——</span></p>\n<p><span>港股这么低估，全球投资人难道都是傻子，为什么不来买港股？</span></p>\n<p><span>全球的投资人当然不是傻子，恰恰是因为他们都太聪明了，他们观察到了香港的金融和地产代表着“夕阳行业”，也观察到了2011年之后港股中的中资公司的ROE（净资产收益率）不断下降的情况，所以他们觉得港股现在的盈利增速不如以前，当然就要抛售了！</span></p>\n<p><span>下图就是2011年之后恒生国企指数（注意，“恒生国企”指的是恒生指数包含的所有中国企业，而不是国有企业）的ROE变动情况，显然整体上是下滑的。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbeaad9fa0d548b5a7d0ed616fe28579\"></p>\n<p><span>正因为此，大多数聪明的资金，自然就选择了抛售港股。</span></p>\n<p><span>现在的问题在于，在全球央行几十年如一日的持续放水之下，最近20年，实体经济的投资回报率越来越低（找到高收益率的实体经济项目越来越难），ROE的下降是一个世界性的现象，不单单是香港的上市公司或内地上市公司的问题。也正是因为实体经济回报率越来越低，包括中国和美国在内的各国政府，也都乐于吹起资本市场的泡沫。</span></p>\n<p><span>正是这种情况持续下去，近两年，以美国为首的全球主要经济体，其股市估值才变得越来越高——刚才我们也拿恒生指数比较了全球的股市估值。</span></p>\n<p><span>有人问了，香港政府为什么不推高股市？</span></p>\n<p><span>——非不为也，实不能也！</span></p>\n<p><span>受制于民众和中央政府，香港政府整体偏于弱势，而港币也受到联系汇率的掣肘，无法像其他政府那样，不断给股市出各种利好政策，更无法真金白银地输血，所以才造成了港股如此低估的奇葩现象。</span></p>\n<p><span>另一个意义上来说，港股如此低估，对于我们这些“看起来有点傻”的投资者来说，难道不是最好的情况么？</span></p>\n<p><span>用一种“傻一点儿”的思维，傻傻地买入，傻傻地等待，等待时间价值的绽放，等待别人认识到这些资产的价值，难道不是最好的结果么？</span></p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n现在的港股，恐怕是全球最低估的股市！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-02 10:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ix4_zmWVZWavFwhXYviglQ><strong>财主家的余粮</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2018年以来的港股，陷入了“老鼠进风箱——两头受气”的阶段。\n2018年从年初到年底，由于受到中美贸易战的影响，中国股市暴跌，而港股的上市公司中恰恰以中资公司为主，于是港股受牵连而暴跌；\n接下来，伴随着全球股市2019年的小阳春，港股好不容易也跟着涨了一小波。但是从2019年年中开始，随着“占中”事件愈演愈烈，香港社会陷入撕裂，街头冲突不断，于是港股自然是一路下行；\n2019年底迄今，A股又来了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ix4_zmWVZWavFwhXYviglQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ix4_zmWVZWavFwhXYviglQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145533819","content_text":"2018年以来的港股，陷入了“老鼠进风箱——两头受气”的阶段。\n2018年从年初到年底，由于受到中美贸易战的影响，中国股市暴跌，而港股的上市公司中恰恰以中资公司为主，于是港股受牵连而暴跌；\n接下来，伴随着全球股市2019年的小阳春，港股好不容易也跟着涨了一小波。但是从2019年年中开始，随着“占中”事件愈演愈烈，香港社会陷入撕裂，街头冲突不断，于是港股自然是一路下行；\n2019年底迄今，A股又来了一波反弹，港股很显然是想奋力直追，把失去的点位给追回来，没想到，春节后又遭遇新冠疫情当头一棒；\n幸好我大A股皮粗肉厚，春节一日暴跌之后继续上涨，但没想到在全球疫情扩散之下，美股股市却又在上周暴跌。向来看美股脸色行事的港股，赶紧亦步亦趋跟着来了一个暴跌……\n\n看我公众号的人都知道，在过去的一年多当中，每当港股的恒生指数（HSI）跌至26000点附近或者以下，我就会明确发出“抄底”港股的消息。\n“抄底港股”\n“为什么我建议大家考虑抄底港股？”\n“抄底港股的正确姿势”\n现在，当恒生指数再一次跌至这个点位附近，我是不是还坚持原来的观点呢？\n答案是：当然！\n截止2月28日周五，以恒生指数和恒生国企指数的市盈率作为衡量标准，无论从安全性和流动性上考虑，或者是从市场容量和投资便捷性上考虑，与全球其他任何国家的股市相比，港股几乎都是相当有吸引力的资产。\n先不说什么疫情，只从股市本身的估值考虑，来进行历史的纵向对比和全球的横向对比。\n下面的图表，是恒生指数1973年迄今48年的估值情况，目前恒生指数10.9倍的市盈率、恒生国企指数8.6倍的市盈率，至少属于历史上5年一遇的低位。\n\nA股的历史太短，我们可以拿恒生指数历史上几次严重的低估时期，与美国道琼斯工业指数历史上几次严重低估时期，做一个对比。\n\n新冠疫情的影响的确很严重，但它至于影响到这种地步么？目前的恒生指数和恒生国企指数的低估，几乎与2008年金融危机对美国股票指数的影响相去不远，至于么？\n比完了历史，比现在。\n下面的这个表格，是上周全球主要国家的股市估值情况（标注了市盈率及当前市盈率所在的历史百分位、市净率及当前市净率所在的百分位，数据来源于Wind，我们借鉴朋友的计算结果，由小助手在小红圈公布每周的估值变动。除各国股市估值之外，还有美股、A股和港股的行业估值变动）。\n\n对比上面的数据可以发现，以PE来衡量，目前恒生指数的估值，仅高于土耳其、俄罗斯、埃及和奥地利的股市，如果拿恒生国企指数8.6的PE来比较，那么港股里中资企业的整体估值，仅高于俄罗斯的股市估值。\n（在普京大帝20年的管理之下，今天的俄罗斯整体经济规模，也就和广东省规模相当——再想想20年前，普京竞选总统的时候，曾豪言壮语，“给我20年，还你一个强大的俄罗斯”，真令人唏嘘）\n不会真的有人认为，香港股市和土耳其、俄罗斯、埃及股市是一个层次吧？\n有人说了，香港股市主要以代表旧经济的金融和地产为主，是夕阳行业，估值低是正常现象。\n那好，香港是国际大都市，其资本市场也是完全国际化的，我们不妨拿港股的行业指数，和美国标普500的行业指数估值来做个比较。\n\n显然，无论是整体的工业估值还是消费行业估值，再从公共事业、房地产、原材料、能源，甚至是科技、金融、原材料行业的上市公司，香港股市的估值，都远低于标普相关的行业，甚至只有美国同行业公司估值的一半。\n好吧，你可能又会说，人家美帝的公司都是全球性的公司，是行业龙头，在全球都有很强的吸血能力，代表着全球最顶尖的科技水平，比方说现在美股里TOP5的公司——微软、苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、脸书公司，香港的企业有什么资格和人家比PE？\n嗯，虽然说，资本赚钱不分科技能力高低，但这真的是个很强大的理由，我一下子竟然无言以对。\n接下来，我只能默默地把我们大A股的行业估值表格拿出来，对比一下香港的行业指数——显然，香港的这些行业指数所包含的那些公司，整体上和A股的行业指数估值类似，这样比较应该没啥问题了。\n\n与我们大A股的行业指数对比之后，你是不是还是发现，港股的行业指数也全面低于我们大A股啊！\n就拿刚才提到最能代表“旧经济”的地产和金融行业板块来说，我们大A股的中证全指房地产指数的平均市盈率是8.91、中证银行指数和证券指数分别是6.23和30.02，而恒生金融和恒生地产板块的估值都是7.34。\n——这么说其实有点复杂，你直接去查看同时在A股和H股两地上市的那些同股同权的股票，H股现在的价格，平均大概只有A股的一半！\n你说港股低估不低估呢？\n有人又说了，A股因为被圈在池子里，所以一直存在着超高溢价，也是自A股成立以来的老问题，虽然港股比A股便宜很多，但也并不意味着买了港股就会涨啊！\n貌似也很有道理呢！\n好，那我们就来分析一下AH股的历史溢价（见下图）。\n\n自从有A+H股以来，历史上A股相对于H股溢价达到或超出目前水平的高点有6次：2007年1月-2008年6月、2008年10月-2009年7月、2011年9月、2014年12月-2016年7月、2017年6-12月和2019年6月-迄今。\n这种高溢价的存在有两种可能：\n1、A股过分高估；2、H股过分低估。\n2007年和2015年，大家都知道是中国股市的大牛市，A股被炒到了极致，中石油登顶全球市值第一的宝座，这个时候的溢价只能说明A股严重高估而不是H股低估；\n2011年极短时间内的高溢价，是因为创业板被爆炒，A股估值过高；\n2017年下半年的高溢价，是因为中国的蓝筹股被爆炒，A股估值过高；\n——只有2008年-2009年和现在，A股的估值已经被杀下去，在历史平均估值水平以下，这个时候的AH高溢价，才是港股真正低估的时段！\n全球股市的横向对比分析完了，与A股对比的溢价历史也分析完了，大家应该也大致明白港股现在到底是不是低估了。\n\n但是，喜欢一直追问的人，可能还是会问——\n港股这么低估，全球投资人难道都是傻子，为什么不来买港股？\n全球的投资人当然不是傻子，恰恰是因为他们都太聪明了，他们观察到了香港的金融和地产代表着“夕阳行业”，也观察到了2011年之后港股中的中资公司的ROE（净资产收益率）不断下降的情况，所以他们觉得港股现在的盈利增速不如以前，当然就要抛售了！\n下图就是2011年之后恒生国企指数（注意，“恒生国企”指的是恒生指数包含的所有中国企业，而不是国有企业）的ROE变动情况，显然整体上是下滑的。\n\n正因为此，大多数聪明的资金，自然就选择了抛售港股。\n现在的问题在于，在全球央行几十年如一日的持续放水之下，最近20年，实体经济的投资回报率越来越低（找到高收益率的实体经济项目越来越难），ROE的下降是一个世界性的现象，不单单是香港的上市公司或内地上市公司的问题。也正是因为实体经济回报率越来越低，包括中国和美国在内的各国政府，也都乐于吹起资本市场的泡沫。\n正是这种情况持续下去，近两年，以美国为首的全球主要经济体，其股市估值才变得越来越高——刚才我们也拿恒生指数比较了全球的股市估值。\n有人问了，香港政府为什么不推高股市？\n——非不为也，实不能也！\n受制于民众和中央政府，香港政府整体偏于弱势，而港币也受到联系汇率的掣肘，无法像其他政府那样，不断给股市出各种利好政策，更无法真金白银地输血，所以才造成了港股如此低估的奇葩现象。\n另一个意义上来说，港股如此低估，对于我们这些“看起来有点傻”的投资者来说，难道不是最好的情况么？\n用一种“傻一点儿”的思维，傻傻地买入，傻傻地等待，等待时间价值的绽放，等待别人认识到这些资产的价值，难道不是最好的结果么？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":980612873,"gmtCreate":1582355770992,"gmtModify":1704346474715,"author":{"id":"3461814969445393","authorId":"3461814969445393","name":"刘阳leo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a7777ce8f8f8135fcc9de773c644d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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