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刘阳leo
好股票合适的买入价比上车更重要;不买低于1亿流通的股票
IP属地:浙江
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刘阳leo
2020-07-11
$微美全息(WIMI)$
埋伏半个月 收获的季节就来了
刘阳leo
2018-07-04
$SeaDrill Ltd(SDRL)$坑啊 3000股合成11股 一股按成本84块,擦
刘阳leo
2020-02-07
$趣店(QD)$
说做空的你倒是卖完全割肉啊,我要拿到3.18出财报后,你看涨不涨。前三季度业绩超去年 四季度就是划水 业绩也好过去年,也会一定程度反映在股价上。这就是我看多的原因
刘阳leo
2019-06-20
$蔚来(NIO)$ 做空不看好的 想啥呢 不看新闻啊 es6都首发交车了。哪个国产做到了 卖30万以上还出第二辆辆车车的。那些新能源企业早被甩后面了。看国外 特斯拉竞争是强 没国产啊 价格高啊 还是轿车 这年头SUV一家人用才合适好嘛。而且蔚来是服务公司 不是专卖汽车的 汽车界的海底捞[得意] 赞同的互相关注哈 我们一起拿住 一起飞[贱笑]
刘阳leo
2020-03-19
$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$
这个股的最高值, 不是看价格 而是看疫情。目前美国疫情不可控,看涨的点赞👍
刘阳leo
2020-02-05
$趣店(QD)$
坐等反弹 我就要等两个月 等到出财报
刘阳leo
2020-02-19
$趣店(QD)$
我都想割肉了 就我买啥啥跌 卖啥啥涨的眼光,这股是不是快涨了啊
刘阳leo
2020-02-11
$趣店(QD)$
最近开盘和收盘都有十几万几十万的大单买入 不知道大家发现没有[微笑]是不是主力进场吸筹准备拉盘了?
刘阳leo
2019-07-03
$蔚来(NIO)$ 估计空头被拉爆了,这股只适合短期做空,长期肯定做多
刘阳leo
2020-06-17
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
卖了
刘阳leo
2019-06-21
$蔚来(NIO)$ 空军使劲空 真要空到我持仓均价2.54以下 我加仓一倍
刘阳leo
2020-06-16
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
难得一见
刘阳leo
2018-07-03
$SeaDrill Ltd(SDRL)$睡觉 股票被锁定了 啥交易都搞不了 但愿美国还是保护小股民的 明天九点半再来
刘阳leo
2020-07-24
$百世集团(BEST)$
有谁知道 远期期权call,交易量突然大幅增加几十倍代表什么吗,求教ing
$蔚来(NIO)$
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
刘阳leo
2019-03-03
$老虎中美互联网巨头ETF(TTTN)$ 为啥没成分股里面没有 苹果 它不也是互联网公司吗
刘阳leo
2020-07-31
$谷歌A(GOOGL)$
难得的4%下跌,我小资金买入了期权,目标赚一倍。
刘阳leo
2020-02-22
$趣店(QD)$
看好它赶紧涨 我3.8上的车 现在还在车底吃土
刘阳leo
2019-06-19
$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 下一个老虎嘛 超过180我就加大做空
刘阳leo
2020-07-15
等着踏空悔青肠子吧
@张顺顺:
$红黄蓝(RYB)$
把涉事幼儿园彻底关闭,我会考虑再买你
刘阳leo
2020-07-11
回复
@renyi122
:昨天开盘我才知道9号,马爸爸在世界人工智能大会上用全息投影实时演讲。然后就被拉爆了。//
@renyi122
:这个很牛啊,突然就牛了
@刘阳leo:
$微美全息(WIMI)$
埋伏半个月 收获的季节就来了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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@renyi122:昨天开盘我才知道9号,马爸爸在世界人工智能大会上用全息投影实时演讲。然后就被拉爆了。//@renyi122:这个很牛啊,突然就牛了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/943809781","repostId":"943159076","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":943159076,"gmtCreate":1594420567895,"gmtModify":1704205704132,"author":{"id":"3461814969445393","authorId":"3461814969445393","name":"刘阳leo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a7777ce8f8f8135fcc9de773c644d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461814969445393","authorIdStr":"3461814969445393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">$微美全息(WIMI)$</a>埋伏半个月 收获的季节就来了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WIMI\">$微美全息(WIMI)$</a>埋伏半个月 收获的季节就来了","text":"$微美全息(WIMI)$埋伏半个月 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而是看疫情。目前美国疫情不可控,看涨的点赞👍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad45ccacc1b0f40f5cfce7ecdd3e25e","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967823892","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3543633118542668","authorId":"3543633118542668","name":"东方硕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3543633118542668","authorIdStr":"3543633118542668"},"content":"美股跌了好多","text":"美股跌了好多","html":"美股跌了好多"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983921611,"gmtCreate":1583121820633,"gmtModify":1704348677247,"author":{"id":"3461814969445393","authorId":"3461814969445393","name":"刘阳leo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a7777ce8f8f8135fcc9de773c644d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461814969445393","authorIdStr":"3461814969445393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买买买","listText":"买买买","text":"买买买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983921611","repostId":"1145533819","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145533819","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1583117506,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145533819?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-02 10:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"现在的港股,恐怕是全球最低估的股市!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145533819","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"2018年以来的港股,陷入了“老鼠进风箱——两头受气”的阶段。\n2018年从年初到年底,由于受到中美贸易战的影响,中国股市暴跌,而港股的上市公司中恰恰以中资公司为主,于是港股受牵连而暴跌;\n接下来,伴","content":"<p><span>2018年以来的港股,陷入了“老鼠进风箱——两头受气”的阶段。</span></p>\n<p><span>2018年从年初到年底,由于受到中美贸易战的影响,中国股市暴跌,而港股的上市公司中恰恰以中资公司为主,于是港股受牵连而暴跌;</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来,伴随着全球股市2019年的小阳春,港股好不容易也跟着涨了一小波。但是从2019年年中开始,随着“占中”事件愈演愈烈,香港社会陷入撕裂,街头冲突不断,于是港股自然是一路下行;</span></p>\n<p><span>2019年底迄今,A股又来了一波反弹,港股很显然是想奋力直追,把失去的点位给追回来,没想到,春节后又遭遇新冠疫情当头一棒;</span></p>\n<p><span>幸好我大A股皮粗肉厚,春节一日暴跌之后继续上涨,但没想到在全球疫情扩散之下,美股股市却又在上周暴跌。向来看美股脸色行事的港股,赶紧亦步亦趋跟着来了一个暴跌……</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0092edd21a57b700629fc9301ec06e02\"></p>\n<p><span>看我公众号的人都知道,在过去的一年多当中,每当港股的恒生指数(HSI)跌至26000点附近或者以下,我就会明确发出“抄底”港股的消息。</span></p>\n<p><span>“抄底港股”</span></p>\n<p><span>“为什么我建议大家考虑抄底港股?”</span></p>\n<p><span>“抄底港股的正确姿势”</span></p>\n<p><span>现在,当恒生指数再一次跌至这个点位附近,我是不是还坚持原来的观点呢?</span></p>\n<p><span>答案是:</span><span><b>当然!</b></span></p>\n<p><span>截止2月28日周五,以恒生指数和恒生国企指数的市盈率作为衡量标准,无论从安全性和流动性上考虑,或者是从市场容量和投资便捷性上考虑,与全球其他任何国家的股市相比,港股几乎都是相当有吸引力的资产。</span></p>\n<p><span>先不说什么疫情,只从股市本身的估值考虑,来进行历史的纵向对比和全球的横向对比。</span></p>\n<p><span>下面的图表,是恒生指数1973年迄今48年的估值情况,目前恒生指数10.9倍的市盈率、恒生国企指数8.6倍的市盈率,至少属于历史上5年一遇的低位。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67420e34a5487d756ea38f89b83bdafc\"></p>\n<p><span>A股的历史太短,我们可以拿恒生指数历史上几次严重的低估时期,与美国道琼斯工业指数历史上几次严重低估时期,做一个对比。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/218ba3444db2f6980ca76608a1e74ad0\"></p>\n<p><span>新冠疫情的影响的确很严重,但它至于影响到这种地步么?目前的恒生指数和恒生国企指数的低估,几乎与2008年金融危机对美国股票指数的影响相去不远,至于么?</span></p>\n<p><span>比完了历史,比现在。</span></p>\n<p><span>下面的这个表格,是上周全球主要国家的股市估值情况(标注了市盈率及当前市盈率所在的历史百分位、市净率及当前市净率所在的百分位,数据来源于Wind,我们借鉴朋友的计算结果,由小助手在小红圈公布每周的估值变动。除各国股市估值之外,还有美股、A股和港股的行业估值变动)。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51d08f4f7e8184aafdb2d03a0e1c3d4c\"></p>\n<p><span>对比上面的数据可以发现,以PE来衡量,目前恒生指数的估值,仅高于土耳其、俄罗斯、埃及和奥地利的股市,如果拿恒生国企指数8.6的PE来比较,那么港股里中资企业的整体估值,仅高于俄罗斯的股市估值。</span></p>\n<p><span>(在普京大帝20年的管理之下,今天的俄罗斯整体经济规模,也就和广东省规模相当——再想想20年前,普京竞选总统的时候,曾豪言壮语,“给我20年,还你一个强大的俄罗斯”,真令人唏嘘)</span></p>\n<p><span>不会真的有人认为,香港股市和土耳其、俄罗斯、埃及股市是一个层次吧?</span></p>\n<p><span>有人说了,香港股市主要以代表旧经济的金融和地产为主,是夕阳行业,估值低是正常现象。</span></p>\n<p><span>那好,香港是国际大都市,其资本市场也是完全国际化的,我们不妨拿港股的行业指数,和美国标普500的行业指数估值来做个比较。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae5cfee9ef0af57fe6381fb643564ab\"></p>\n<p><span>显然,无论是整体的工业估值还是消费行业估值,再从公共事业、房地产、原材料、能源,甚至是科技、金融、原材料行业的上市公司,香港股市的估值,都远低于标普相关的行业,甚至只有美国同行业公司估值的一半。</span></p>\n<p><span>好吧,你可能又会说,人家美帝的公司都是全球性的公司,是行业龙头,在全球都有很强的吸血能力,代表着全球最顶尖的科技水平,比方说现在美股里TOP5的公司——微软、苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、脸书公司,香港的企业有什么资格和人家比PE?</span></p>\n<p><span>嗯,虽然说,资本赚钱不分科技能力高低,但这真的是个很强大的理由,我一下子竟然无言以对。</span></p>\n<p><span>接下来,我只能默默地把我们大A股的行业估值表格拿出来,对比一下香港的行业指数——显然,香港的这些行业指数所包含的那些公司,整体上和A股的行业指数估值类似,这样比较应该没啥问题了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35697a8b0cd6bcb6156b84e0ea8bc8df\"></p>\n<p><span>与我们大A股的行业指数对比之后,你是不是还是发现,港股的行业指数也全面低于我们大A股啊!</span></p>\n<p><span>就拿刚才提到最能代表“旧经济”的地产和金融行业板块来说,我们大A股的中证全指房地产指数的平均市盈率是8.91、中证银行指数和证券指数分别是6.23和30.02,而恒生金融和恒生地产板块的估值都是7.34。</span></p>\n<p><span>——这么说其实有点复杂,你直接去查看同时在A股和H股两地上市的那些同股同权的股票,H股现在的价格,平均大概只有A股的一半!</span></p>\n<p><span>你说港股低估不低估呢?</span></p>\n<p><span>有人又说了,A股因为被圈在池子里,所以一直存在着超高溢价,也是自A股成立以来的老问题,虽然港股比A股便宜很多,但也并不意味着买了港股就会涨啊!</span></p>\n<p><span>貌似也很有道理呢!</span></p>\n<p><span>好,那我们就来分析一下AH股的历史溢价(见下图)。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b8213977fc381c3629d66cb763c9f22\"></p>\n<p><span>自从有A+H股以来,历史上A股相对于H股溢价达到或超出目前水平的高点有6次:</span><span><b>2007年1月-2008年6月、2008年10月-2009年7月、2011年9月、2014年12月-2016年7月、2017年6-12月和2019年6月-迄今。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>这种高溢价的存在有两种可能:</span></p>\n<p><span>1、A股过分高估;2、H股过分低估。</span></p>\n<p><span>2007年和2015年,大家都知道是中国股市的大牛市,A股被炒到了极致,中石油登顶全球市值第一的宝座,这个时候的溢价只能说明A股严重高估而不是H股低估;</span></p>\n<p><span>2011年极短时间内的高溢价,是因为创业板被爆炒,A股估值过高;</span></p>\n<p><span>2017年下半年的高溢价,是因为中国的蓝筹股被爆炒,A股估值过高;</span></p>\n<p><span>——只有2008年-2009年和现在,A股的估值已经被杀下去,在历史平均估值水平以下,这个时候的AH高溢价,才是港股真正低估的时段!</span></p>\n<p><span>全球股市的横向对比分析完了,与A股对比的溢价历史也分析完了,大家应该也大致明白港股现在到底是不是低估了。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f65cec33d67053e2263f41dc5ce76a4\"></p>\n<p><span>但是,喜欢一直追问的人,可能还是会问——</span></p>\n<p><span>港股这么低估,全球投资人难道都是傻子,为什么不来买港股?</span></p>\n<p><span>全球的投资人当然不是傻子,恰恰是因为他们都太聪明了,他们观察到了香港的金融和地产代表着“夕阳行业”,也观察到了2011年之后港股中的中资公司的ROE(净资产收益率)不断下降的情况,所以他们觉得港股现在的盈利增速不如以前,当然就要抛售了!</span></p>\n<p><span>下图就是2011年之后恒生国企指数(注意,“恒生国企”指的是恒生指数包含的所有中国企业,而不是国有企业)的ROE变动情况,显然整体上是下滑的。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbeaad9fa0d548b5a7d0ed616fe28579\"></p>\n<p><span>正因为此,大多数聪明的资金,自然就选择了抛售港股。</span></p>\n<p><span>现在的问题在于,在全球央行几十年如一日的持续放水之下,最近20年,实体经济的投资回报率越来越低(找到高收益率的实体经济项目越来越难),ROE的下降是一个世界性的现象,不单单是香港的上市公司或内地上市公司的问题。也正是因为实体经济回报率越来越低,包括中国和美国在内的各国政府,也都乐于吹起资本市场的泡沫。</span></p>\n<p><span>正是这种情况持续下去,近两年,以美国为首的全球主要经济体,其股市估值才变得越来越高——刚才我们也拿恒生指数比较了全球的股市估值。</span></p>\n<p><span>有人问了,香港政府为什么不推高股市?</span></p>\n<p><span>——非不为也,实不能也!</span></p>\n<p><span>受制于民众和中央政府,香港政府整体偏于弱势,而港币也受到联系汇率的掣肘,无法像其他政府那样,不断给股市出各种利好政策,更无法真金白银地输血,所以才造成了港股如此低估的奇葩现象。</span></p>\n<p><span>另一个意义上来说,港股如此低估,对于我们这些“看起来有点傻”的投资者来说,难道不是最好的情况么?</span></p>\n<p><span>用一种“傻一点儿”的思维,傻傻地买入,傻傻地等待,等待时间价值的绽放,等待别人认识到这些资产的价值,难道不是最好的结果么?</span></p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n现在的港股,恐怕是全球最低估的股市!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-02 10:51 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ix4_zmWVZWavFwhXYviglQ><strong>财主家的余粮</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2018年以来的港股,陷入了“老鼠进风箱——两头受气”的阶段。\n2018年从年初到年底,由于受到中美贸易战的影响,中国股市暴跌,而港股的上市公司中恰恰以中资公司为主,于是港股受牵连而暴跌;\n接下来,伴随着全球股市2019年的小阳春,港股好不容易也跟着涨了一小波。但是从2019年年中开始,随着“占中”事件愈演愈烈,香港社会陷入撕裂,街头冲突不断,于是港股自然是一路下行;\n2019年底迄今,A股又来了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ix4_zmWVZWavFwhXYviglQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Ix4_zmWVZWavFwhXYviglQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145533819","content_text":"2018年以来的港股,陷入了“老鼠进风箱——两头受气”的阶段。\n2018年从年初到年底,由于受到中美贸易战的影响,中国股市暴跌,而港股的上市公司中恰恰以中资公司为主,于是港股受牵连而暴跌;\n接下来,伴随着全球股市2019年的小阳春,港股好不容易也跟着涨了一小波。但是从2019年年中开始,随着“占中”事件愈演愈烈,香港社会陷入撕裂,街头冲突不断,于是港股自然是一路下行;\n2019年底迄今,A股又来了一波反弹,港股很显然是想奋力直追,把失去的点位给追回来,没想到,春节后又遭遇新冠疫情当头一棒;\n幸好我大A股皮粗肉厚,春节一日暴跌之后继续上涨,但没想到在全球疫情扩散之下,美股股市却又在上周暴跌。向来看美股脸色行事的港股,赶紧亦步亦趋跟着来了一个暴跌……\n\n看我公众号的人都知道,在过去的一年多当中,每当港股的恒生指数(HSI)跌至26000点附近或者以下,我就会明确发出“抄底”港股的消息。\n“抄底港股”\n“为什么我建议大家考虑抄底港股?”\n“抄底港股的正确姿势”\n现在,当恒生指数再一次跌至这个点位附近,我是不是还坚持原来的观点呢?\n答案是:当然!\n截止2月28日周五,以恒生指数和恒生国企指数的市盈率作为衡量标准,无论从安全性和流动性上考虑,或者是从市场容量和投资便捷性上考虑,与全球其他任何国家的股市相比,港股几乎都是相当有吸引力的资产。\n先不说什么疫情,只从股市本身的估值考虑,来进行历史的纵向对比和全球的横向对比。\n下面的图表,是恒生指数1973年迄今48年的估值情况,目前恒生指数10.9倍的市盈率、恒生国企指数8.6倍的市盈率,至少属于历史上5年一遇的低位。\n\nA股的历史太短,我们可以拿恒生指数历史上几次严重的低估时期,与美国道琼斯工业指数历史上几次严重低估时期,做一个对比。\n\n新冠疫情的影响的确很严重,但它至于影响到这种地步么?目前的恒生指数和恒生国企指数的低估,几乎与2008年金融危机对美国股票指数的影响相去不远,至于么?\n比完了历史,比现在。\n下面的这个表格,是上周全球主要国家的股市估值情况(标注了市盈率及当前市盈率所在的历史百分位、市净率及当前市净率所在的百分位,数据来源于Wind,我们借鉴朋友的计算结果,由小助手在小红圈公布每周的估值变动。除各国股市估值之外,还有美股、A股和港股的行业估值变动)。\n\n对比上面的数据可以发现,以PE来衡量,目前恒生指数的估值,仅高于土耳其、俄罗斯、埃及和奥地利的股市,如果拿恒生国企指数8.6的PE来比较,那么港股里中资企业的整体估值,仅高于俄罗斯的股市估值。\n(在普京大帝20年的管理之下,今天的俄罗斯整体经济规模,也就和广东省规模相当——再想想20年前,普京竞选总统的时候,曾豪言壮语,“给我20年,还你一个强大的俄罗斯”,真令人唏嘘)\n不会真的有人认为,香港股市和土耳其、俄罗斯、埃及股市是一个层次吧?\n有人说了,香港股市主要以代表旧经济的金融和地产为主,是夕阳行业,估值低是正常现象。\n那好,香港是国际大都市,其资本市场也是完全国际化的,我们不妨拿港股的行业指数,和美国标普500的行业指数估值来做个比较。\n\n显然,无论是整体的工业估值还是消费行业估值,再从公共事业、房地产、原材料、能源,甚至是科技、金融、原材料行业的上市公司,香港股市的估值,都远低于标普相关的行业,甚至只有美国同行业公司估值的一半。\n好吧,你可能又会说,人家美帝的公司都是全球性的公司,是行业龙头,在全球都有很强的吸血能力,代表着全球最顶尖的科技水平,比方说现在美股里TOP5的公司——微软、苹果、谷歌、亚马逊、脸书公司,香港的企业有什么资格和人家比PE?\n嗯,虽然说,资本赚钱不分科技能力高低,但这真的是个很强大的理由,我一下子竟然无言以对。\n接下来,我只能默默地把我们大A股的行业估值表格拿出来,对比一下香港的行业指数——显然,香港的这些行业指数所包含的那些公司,整体上和A股的行业指数估值类似,这样比较应该没啥问题了。\n\n与我们大A股的行业指数对比之后,你是不是还是发现,港股的行业指数也全面低于我们大A股啊!\n就拿刚才提到最能代表“旧经济”的地产和金融行业板块来说,我们大A股的中证全指房地产指数的平均市盈率是8.91、中证银行指数和证券指数分别是6.23和30.02,而恒生金融和恒生地产板块的估值都是7.34。\n——这么说其实有点复杂,你直接去查看同时在A股和H股两地上市的那些同股同权的股票,H股现在的价格,平均大概只有A股的一半!\n你说港股低估不低估呢?\n有人又说了,A股因为被圈在池子里,所以一直存在着超高溢价,也是自A股成立以来的老问题,虽然港股比A股便宜很多,但也并不意味着买了港股就会涨啊!\n貌似也很有道理呢!\n好,那我们就来分析一下AH股的历史溢价(见下图)。\n\n自从有A+H股以来,历史上A股相对于H股溢价达到或超出目前水平的高点有6次:2007年1月-2008年6月、2008年10月-2009年7月、2011年9月、2014年12月-2016年7月、2017年6-12月和2019年6月-迄今。\n这种高溢价的存在有两种可能:\n1、A股过分高估;2、H股过分低估。\n2007年和2015年,大家都知道是中国股市的大牛市,A股被炒到了极致,中石油登顶全球市值第一的宝座,这个时候的溢价只能说明A股严重高估而不是H股低估;\n2011年极短时间内的高溢价,是因为创业板被爆炒,A股估值过高;\n2017年下半年的高溢价,是因为中国的蓝筹股被爆炒,A股估值过高;\n——只有2008年-2009年和现在,A股的估值已经被杀下去,在历史平均估值水平以下,这个时候的AH高溢价,才是港股真正低估的时段!\n全球股市的横向对比分析完了,与A股对比的溢价历史也分析完了,大家应该也大致明白港股现在到底是不是低估了。\n\n但是,喜欢一直追问的人,可能还是会问——\n港股这么低估,全球投资人难道都是傻子,为什么不来买港股?\n全球的投资人当然不是傻子,恰恰是因为他们都太聪明了,他们观察到了香港的金融和地产代表着“夕阳行业”,也观察到了2011年之后港股中的中资公司的ROE(净资产收益率)不断下降的情况,所以他们觉得港股现在的盈利增速不如以前,当然就要抛售了!\n下图就是2011年之后恒生国企指数(注意,“恒生国企”指的是恒生指数包含的所有中国企业,而不是国有企业)的ROE变动情况,显然整体上是下滑的。\n\n正因为此,大多数聪明的资金,自然就选择了抛售港股。\n现在的问题在于,在全球央行几十年如一日的持续放水之下,最近20年,实体经济的投资回报率越来越低(找到高收益率的实体经济项目越来越难),ROE的下降是一个世界性的现象,不单单是香港的上市公司或内地上市公司的问题。也正是因为实体经济回报率越来越低,包括中国和美国在内的各国政府,也都乐于吹起资本市场的泡沫。\n正是这种情况持续下去,近两年,以美国为首的全球主要经济体,其股市估值才变得越来越高——刚才我们也拿恒生指数比较了全球的股市估值。\n有人问了,香港政府为什么不推高股市?\n——非不为也,实不能也!\n受制于民众和中央政府,香港政府整体偏于弱势,而港币也受到联系汇率的掣肘,无法像其他政府那样,不断给股市出各种利好政策,更无法真金白银地输血,所以才造成了港股如此低估的奇葩现象。\n另一个意义上来说,港股如此低估,对于我们这些“看起来有点傻”的投资者来说,难道不是最好的情况么?\n用一种“傻一点儿”的思维,傻傻地买入,傻傻地等待,等待时间价值的绽放,等待别人认识到这些资产的价值,难道不是最好的结果么?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":980612873,"gmtCreate":1582355770992,"gmtModify":1704346474715,"author":{"id":"3461814969445393","authorId":"3461814969445393","name":"刘阳leo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5a7777ce8f8f8135fcc9de773c644d6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461814969445393","authorIdStr":"3461814969445393"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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