frankyxu的个人主页 - 老虎社区

frankyxu

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：江苏

26关注

2粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2022-07-05

$腾讯音乐(TME)$7月8日拯救唱片业的周杰伦新专辑上线预售

2021-07-09

$好未来(TAL)$基金建仓了，该来的总会来

2021-07-02

$好未来(TAL)$$新东方(EDU)$$高途(GOTU)$呵呵，托管服务，孩子放那里只要安全就可以的服务，一个假期放那指望孩子自己把功课都做了？留帖为证，只要中考高考本质上不变，三家在线教育股价必将翻倍，短则三个月，慢则三年，我们拭目以待。

2021-02-19

觉得是闹剧，那你来做空啊

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-08

$百度(BIDU)$中国版clubhouse要来了

2021-01-28

$苹果(AAPL)$ 静待花开，晚安！

2021-01-19

$苹果(AAPL)$拿到财报，好产品市场会说话。iPhone占比可能会进一步缩水，但M1会再次证明，这是一家始于电脑的公司。

2021-01-12

$蔚来(NIO)$ 虽然我已经清仓一身轻，也觉得短期内利好出尽。但还是奉劝做空的朋友，远离这支，否则会很惨。

2021-01-11

$蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$祝车友们发财，我先落袋为安回家过年了！牛年再战！

2020-12-20

$泡泡玛特(09992)$你好，周同学

2020-11-24

$小牛电动(NIU)$在这个舞台，是金子你总会发光发亮 $蔚来(NIO)$$理想汽车(LI)$

2020-11-20

笑死了，怕是不知道什么是增程式电动车，理想当然不会成为蔚来或者特斯拉，正是因为充电设施局限，它才是现阶段最适合中国市场的新能源车，这些洋媒体动不动就来做空中概股，等着瞧吧。

造车新势力股价火热上窜后，理想汽车(LI.US)也迎来冬天第一盆冷水

2020-11-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$国产三杰飞完大哥飞，加油[开心]

2020-11-05

$小牛电动(NIU)$我是坚定不移的新能源投资者，小牛的增长空间还很大，电动智能助力车领域，潜在消费市场还很庞大，今年的下沉市场新车型很成功

2020-09-23

价值投资需要耐心，坚持自己的判断

2020-09-16

$苹果(AAPL)$最糟糕的apple event，没有之一!

2020-09-10

$农夫山泉(09633)$一直专注价值投资，我的综合成本大概36，翻倍后72我们再回来看，它用了多少天，静待花开。

2020-08-27

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$10元等你

2020-08-18

这种为了黑而黑的文章没有意义，标题就是来引战的。研发是有周期的，研发投入也是有阶段性策略的，文章作者凭着自己的主观臆测，强行给蔚来缩水，作为车主，我没听到新车友遇到减配，按照作者的逻辑，赚钱就得砸更多到研发上？理解苹果为什么裁减新能源车研发项目吗？知道为什么很多造车新势力胎死腹中吗？知道特斯拉为什么在初期阶段性缩减研发投入吗？如果不能理解，就请不要大言不惭。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-07-31

$理想汽车(LI)$感谢理想，吃了点肉，17.30已减仓，等市值回归理性，我还会再加仓的，加油！

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3461026910453051,"uuid":"3461026910453051","gmtCreate":1498054973285,"gmtModify":1499229707395,"name":"frankyxu","pinyin":"frankyxu","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":26,"tweetSize":41,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.45%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.12.17","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.41%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":"江苏","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":681212026,"gmtCreate":1657009032366,"gmtModify":1704866239227,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>7月8日 拯救唱片业的周杰伦新专辑上线预售","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">$腾讯音乐(TME)$</a>7月8日 拯救唱片业的周杰伦新专辑上线预售","text":"$腾讯音乐(TME)$7月8日 拯救唱片业的周杰伦新专辑上线预售","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681212026","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141140301,"gmtCreate":1625843373403,"gmtModify":1625843373403,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a>基金建仓了，该来的总会来","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a>基金建仓了，该来的总会来","text":"$好未来(TAL)$基金建仓了，该来的总会来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141140301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156422202,"gmtCreate":1625234835306,"gmtModify":1625234835306,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>呵呵，托管服务，孩子放那里只要安全就可以的服务，一个假期放那指望孩子自己把功课都做了？留帖为证，只要中考高考本质上不变，三家在线教育股价必将翻倍，短则三个月，慢则三年，我们拭目以待。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>呵呵，托管服务，孩子放那里只要安全就可以的服务，一个假期放那指望孩子自己把功课都做了？留帖为证，只要中考高考本质上不变，三家在线教育股价必将翻倍，短则三个月，慢则三年，我们拭目以待。","text":"$好未来(TAL)$$新东方(EDU)$$高途(GOTU)$呵呵，托管服务，孩子放那里只要安全就可以的服务，一个假期放那指望孩子自己把功课都做了？留帖为证，只要中考高考本质上不变，三家在线教育股价必将翻倍，短则三个月，慢则三年，我们拭目以待。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156422202","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3507276673495452","authorId":"3507276673495452","name":"怎么又开始下跌了","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"观点我都同意，但为什么是在线教育涨，不是线下教育涨？相对于线下教育，线上到现在还只能算个伪概念。","text":"观点我都同意，但为什么是在线教育涨，不是线下教育涨？相对于线下教育，线上到现在还只能算个伪概念。","html":"观点我都同意，但为什么是在线教育涨，不是线下教育涨？相对于线下教育，线上到现在还只能算个伪概念。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387659232,"gmtCreate":1613746360126,"gmtModify":1613746360126,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"觉得是闹剧，那你来做空啊","listText":"觉得是闹剧，那你来做空啊","text":"觉得是闹剧，那你来做空啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387659232","repostId":"2112843022","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":389539750,"gmtCreate":1612786146270,"gmtModify":1703764970938,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>中国版clubhouse要来了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>中国版clubhouse要来了","text":"$百度(BIDU)$中国版clubhouse要来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389539750","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311124722,"gmtCreate":1611767826166,"gmtModify":1703753651541,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 静待花开，晚安&#x10;！","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 静待花开，晚安&#x10;！","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 静待花开，晚安\u0010！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311124722","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337997656,"gmtCreate":1611047750175,"gmtModify":1703747627870,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>拿到财报，好产品市场会说话。iPhone占比可能会进一步缩水，但M1会再次证明，这是一家始于电脑的公司。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>拿到财报，好产品市场会说话。iPhone占比可能会进一步缩水，但M1会再次证明，这是一家始于电脑的公司。","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$拿到财报，好产品市场会说话。iPhone占比可能会进一步缩水，但M1会再次证明，这是一家始于电脑的公司。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337997656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332442087,"gmtCreate":1610460779349,"gmtModify":1703744465536,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> &nbsp;虽然我已经清仓一身轻，也觉得短期内利好出尽。但还是奉劝做空的朋友，远离这支，否则会很惨。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> &nbsp;虽然我已经清仓一身轻，也觉得短期内利好出尽。但还是奉劝做空的朋友，远离这支，否则会很惨。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 虽然我已经清仓一身轻，也觉得短期内利好出尽。但还是奉劝做空的朋友，远离这支，否则会很惨。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332442087","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332110523,"gmtCreate":1610356381162,"gmtModify":1703743677505,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>祝车友们发财，我先落袋为安回家过年了！牛年再战！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>祝车友们发财，我先落袋为安回家过年了！牛年再战！","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$祝车友们发财，我先落袋为安回家过年了！牛年再战！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332110523","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330088951,"gmtCreate":1608436491173,"gmtModify":1703734971058,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$</a>你好，周同学","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">$泡泡玛特(09992)$</a>你好，周同学","text":"$泡泡玛特(09992)$你好，周同学","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2738d147a6291897b154203bd7fc3825","width":"1080","height":"2160"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330088951","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393936041,"gmtCreate":1606222990183,"gmtModify":1703841785891,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>在这个舞台，是金子你总会发光发亮 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>在这个舞台，是金子你总会发光发亮 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>","text":"$小牛电动(NIU)$在这个舞台，是金子你总会发光发亮 $蔚来(NIO)$$理想汽车(LI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393936041","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390725674,"gmtCreate":1605869144798,"gmtModify":1703840178735,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"笑死了，怕是不知道什么是增程式电动车，理想当然不会成为蔚来或者特斯拉，正是因为充电设施局限，它才是现阶段最适合中国市场的新能源车，这些洋媒体动不动就来做空中概股，等着瞧吧。","listText":"笑死了，怕是不知道什么是增程式电动车，理想当然不会成为蔚来或者特斯拉，正是因为充电设施局限，它才是现阶段最适合中国市场的新能源车，这些洋媒体动不动就来做空中概股，等着瞧吧。","text":"笑死了，怕是不知道什么是增程式电动车，理想当然不会成为蔚来或者特斯拉，正是因为充电设施局限，它才是现阶段最适合中国市场的新能源车，这些洋媒体动不动就来做空中概股，等着瞧吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390725674","repostId":"2084282498","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2084282498","pubTimestamp":1605865712,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2084282498?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-20 17:48","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"造车新势力股价火热上窜后，理想汽车(LI.US)也迎来冬天第一盆冷水","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2084282498","media":"智通财经","summary":"截至2019年12月31日，新能源车与公共快速充电桩的比例为17.7比1。2020年上半年，运营亏损达4.1亿美元。公司称，到2020年上半年，其研发费用将超过3.91亿美元。虽然理想汽车表示，到2022年，其EBITDA将超过2亿美元。相比之下，理想汽车并不具备突出的优势让人信服其销量增长能超越特斯拉。结果，股价从9美元跌至不足3美元，这是对股东权益的巨大打击，希望理想汽车不会发生同样的情况。而理想汽车目前仅有2628名员工。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(LI.US)预计在未来两年内将实现巨大的收入增长，但金融博客Lisbon Stock Picks分析师指出，以目前的员工人数，其销售目标有些不切实际。且当前理想汽车的估值过高，市场相信公司的销售预期可以实现，但投资者需要清楚公司的商业模式。分析师提醒投资者，目前的价格并不适合买进，应该等其股价更便宜时再进行投资。</p><p>充电基础设施不足</p><p>充电基础设施目前是中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车市场的一个瓶颈。根据CIC的报告，截至2019年12月31日，中国一线城市只有不到25%的家庭拥有适合安装家庭充电桩的停车位；而在美国，这一比例超过了70%。因此，中国大部分的电动车车主不得不依赖公共收费基础设施。截至2019年12月31日，新能源车与公共快速充电桩的比例为17.7比1。这表明，中国的公共快速充电桩数量不足以支持新能源车的增长。</p><p>销售预期可能有点不切实际</p><p>截至2020年6月30日，理想汽车的销售额为27.89亿美元，毛利润为3.27亿美元，其销售额每季度增长近28％。 2020年上半年，运营亏损达4.1亿美元。公司称，到2020年上半年，其研发费用将超过3.91亿美元。</p><p>分析师认为，在这样高水平的研发成本下，投资者至少需要一段时间才有希望看到EBITDA首次实现正增长。虽然理想汽车表示，到2022年，其EBITDA将超过2亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20201120/1605863371246808.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1605863371246808.png\"/></p><p>理想汽车预计，到2022年公司将实现43亿美元的销售额。但分析师认为，管理层对其未来的收入预期过于乐观。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)用了三年多的时间才达到40亿美元的销售额。相比之下，理想汽车并不具备突出的优势让人信服其销量增长能超越特斯拉。投资者需要记住，此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车(NIO.US)在2019年给出完全不切实际的销售预期。结果，股价从9美元跌至不足3美元，这是对股东权益的巨大打击，希望理想汽车不会发生同样的情况。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20201120/1605863400747380.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1605863400747380.png\"/></p><p>另一方面，理想汽车当前的员工人数是潜在生产力的另一个指标。 蔚来拥有7442名员工，可实现11.3亿美元的销售额。而理想汽车目前仅有2628名员工。分析师认为，理想汽车将不得不新雇用大量员工以实现预期的销售额。参考蔚来的员工/销售比率为6.56员工/百万，这意味着理想汽车可能需要超过28000名员工才能实现43亿美元的销售额。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20201120/1605863422864645.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1605863422864645.png\"/></p><p>投资者还需要了解另一个非常重要的因素：似乎每个人都期望蔚来或者理想汽车会成为下一个特斯拉。请注意，特斯拉是新能源汽车市场上的先行者， 相比之下，目前新能源汽车市场的竞争非常激烈。因此，分析师并不期待理想汽车能够像特斯拉那样实现股价的突飞猛进。值得注意的是，关于未来的发展，理想汽车在招股说明书中表示，由于多种原因，理想汽车可能无法产生足够的收入或继续遭受重大损失，包括对车辆的需求不足、竞争加剧等风险，并且理想汽车可能会产生不可预见的费用，或遇到困难、复杂情况或延误在获得收入或实现盈利方面。</p><p>资产总额正在增加</p><p>分析师发现，理想汽车的资产大幅增加。由于进行了IPO，公司现金和短期投资均增加，定期存款和短期投资更是猛增369％，达到17.82亿美元。分析师毫无怀疑现在市场上对于投资理想汽车的高涨情绪。但投资者需要意识到，他们应该以合理的价格购买股票。IPO后，蔚来一开始股价走势并不让人满意，可能理想汽车会有不一样的表现，但是投资者不能完全将这种可能性抛之脑后。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20201120/1605863444123893.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1605863444123893.png\"/></p><p>分析师认为，尽管理想汽车的资产负债率低，但公司却偏向于长期借款。在他看来，如果公司有大量现金应考虑偿还债务，股东也并不想为公司债务支付太多利息。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20201120/1605863461428119.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1605863461428119.png\"/></p><p>公司估值合理吗？</p><p>假设以公司给出的2021年达到25亿美元的估值，理想汽车的市盈率为2021年10倍。分析师怀疑它能否实现如此高的销售额增长，因为在员工人数有限的情况下，就算公司快马加鞭地扩招员工，但请记住员工培训也是需要时间。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20201120/1605863509370924.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1605863509370924.png\"/></p><p>考虑带其他更老牌的公司，如特斯拉和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">比亚迪股份</a>(01211)的市盈率不到9.5倍，理想汽车目前的估值可以说十分昂贵，因为它给出了大量的销售预估。 如果公司无法达到预期的增长水平，那么市值的损失可能会很大。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20201120/1605863728209684.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1605863728209684.png\"/></p><p>总而言之，该分析师对理想汽车的商业模式非常认同。在其看来，这家公司在中国市场做到精准定位客户。话虽如此，但公司对其销售预期仍过于乐观。目前的员工数量太有限，无法支撑如此高需求的生产力。虽然现在该股具有很强的投资吸引力，但是分析师看到了太多的危险信号。作为一个保守的投资者，他不会买进该股。如果有投资者喜欢冒险，那么理想汽车可能很<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>进。</p><p>虽然有分析师对理想汽车未来涨势存在质疑，但却不乏对其乐观看好的机构。近日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗</a>发布研报，将其评级由“中性”上调至“买入”，目标价由27.10美元升至45.60美元。该行分析师Jeff Chung表示，到2021年第一季度，中国新能源汽车的销量将同比增长100%以上。分析师预计，理想汽车明年1月的出货量将达到6000部左右。值得注意的是，Jeff Chung透露，在牛市情形下，其估值模型显示，理想汽车的股价可能达到111.38美元。</p><p>考虑到理想汽车20年Q3业绩大超预期，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>维持其“跑赢行业”评级，上调目标价至40美元，并表示，随着公司有力的成本控制和高效运营，理想汽车有望触达更多用户、持续释放销量及在家庭用户群中保持良好的竞争力。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>造车新势力股价火热上窜后，理想汽车(LI.US)也迎来冬天第一盆冷水</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n造车新势力股价火热上窜后，理想汽车(LI.US)也迎来冬天第一盆冷水\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-20 17:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/365664.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，尽管理想汽车(LI.US)预计在未来两年内将实现巨大的收入增长，但金融博客Lisbon Stock Picks分析师指出，以目前的员工人数，其销售目标有些不切实际。且当前理想汽车的估值过高，市场相信公司的销售预期可以实现，但投资者需要清楚公司的商业模式。分析师提醒投资者，目前的价格并不适合买进，应该等其股价更便宜时再进行投资。充电基础设施不足充电基础设施目前是中国新能源汽车市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/365664.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/365664.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2084282498","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，尽管理想汽车(LI.US)预计在未来两年内将实现巨大的收入增长，但金融博客Lisbon Stock Picks分析师指出，以目前的员工人数，其销售目标有些不切实际。且当前理想汽车的估值过高，市场相信公司的销售预期可以实现，但投资者需要清楚公司的商业模式。分析师提醒投资者，目前的价格并不适合买进，应该等其股价更便宜时再进行投资。充电基础设施不足充电基础设施目前是中国新能源汽车市场的一个瓶颈。根据CIC的报告，截至2019年12月31日，中国一线城市只有不到25%的家庭拥有适合安装家庭充电桩的停车位；而在美国，这一比例超过了70%。因此，中国大部分的电动车车主不得不依赖公共收费基础设施。截至2019年12月31日，新能源车与公共快速充电桩的比例为17.7比1。这表明，中国的公共快速充电桩数量不足以支持新能源车的增长。销售预期可能有点不切实际截至2020年6月30日，理想汽车的销售额为27.89亿美元，毛利润为3.27亿美元，其销售额每季度增长近28％。 2020年上半年，运营亏损达4.1亿美元。公司称，到2020年上半年，其研发费用将超过3.91亿美元。分析师认为，在这样高水平的研发成本下，投资者至少需要一段时间才有希望看到EBITDA首次实现正增长。虽然理想汽车表示，到2022年，其EBITDA将超过2亿美元。理想汽车预计，到2022年公司将实现43亿美元的销售额。但分析师认为，管理层对其未来的收入预期过于乐观。特斯拉(TSLA.US)用了三年多的时间才达到40亿美元的销售额。相比之下，理想汽车并不具备突出的优势让人信服其销量增长能超越特斯拉。投资者需要记住，此前蔚来汽车(NIO.US)在2019年给出完全不切实际的销售预期。结果，股价从9美元跌至不足3美元，这是对股东权益的巨大打击，希望理想汽车不会发生同样的情况。另一方面，理想汽车当前的员工人数是潜在生产力的另一个指标。 蔚来拥有7442名员工，可实现11.3亿美元的销售额。而理想汽车目前仅有2628名员工。分析师认为，理想汽车将不得不新雇用大量员工以实现预期的销售额。参考蔚来的员工/销售比率为6.56员工/百万，这意味着理想汽车可能需要超过28000名员工才能实现43亿美元的销售额。投资者还需要了解另一个非常重要的因素：似乎每个人都期望蔚来或者理想汽车会成为下一个特斯拉。请注意，特斯拉是新能源汽车市场上的先行者， 相比之下，目前新能源汽车市场的竞争非常激烈。因此，分析师并不期待理想汽车能够像特斯拉那样实现股价的突飞猛进。值得注意的是，关于未来的发展，理想汽车在招股说明书中表示，由于多种原因，理想汽车可能无法产生足够的收入或继续遭受重大损失，包括对车辆的需求不足、竞争加剧等风险，并且理想汽车可能会产生不可预见的费用，或遇到困难、复杂情况或延误在获得收入或实现盈利方面。资产总额正在增加分析师发现，理想汽车的资产大幅增加。由于进行了IPO，公司现金和短期投资均增加，定期存款和短期投资更是猛增369％，达到17.82亿美元。分析师毫无怀疑现在市场上对于投资理想汽车的高涨情绪。但投资者需要意识到，他们应该以合理的价格购买股票。IPO后，蔚来一开始股价走势并不让人满意，可能理想汽车会有不一样的表现，但是投资者不能完全将这种可能性抛之脑后。分析师认为，尽管理想汽车的资产负债率低，但公司却偏向于长期借款。在他看来，如果公司有大量现金应考虑偿还债务，股东也并不想为公司债务支付太多利息。公司估值合理吗？假设以公司给出的2021年达到25亿美元的估值，理想汽车的市盈率为2021年10倍。分析师怀疑它能否实现如此高的销售额增长，因为在员工人数有限的情况下，就算公司快马加鞭地扩招员工，但请记住员工培训也是需要时间。考虑带其他更老牌的公司，如特斯拉和比亚迪股份(01211)的市盈率不到9.5倍，理想汽车目前的估值可以说十分昂贵，因为它给出了大量的销售预估。 如果公司无法达到预期的增长水平，那么市值的损失可能会很大。总而言之，该分析师对理想汽车的商业模式非常认同。在其看来，这家公司在中国市场做到精准定位客户。话虽如此，但公司对其销售预期仍过于乐观。目前的员工数量太有限，无法支撑如此高需求的生产力。虽然现在该股具有很强的投资吸引力，但是分析师看到了太多的危险信号。作为一个保守的投资者，他不会买进该股。如果有投资者喜欢冒险，那么理想汽车可能很值得买进。虽然有分析师对理想汽车未来涨势存在质疑，但却不乏对其乐观看好的机构。近日，花旗发布研报，将其评级由“中性”上调至“买入”，目标价由27.10美元升至45.60美元。该行分析师Jeff Chung表示，到2021年第一季度，中国新能源汽车的销量将同比增长100%以上。分析师预计，理想汽车明年1月的出货量将达到6000部左右。值得注意的是，Jeff Chung透露，在牛市情形下，其估值模型显示，理想汽车的股价可能达到111.38美元。考虑到理想汽车20年Q3业绩大超预期，中金公司维持其“跑赢行业”评级，上调目标价至40美元，并表示，随着公司有力的成本控制和高效运营，理想汽车有望触达更多用户、持续释放销量及在家庭用户群中保持良好的竞争力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":307215457,"gmtCreate":1605571156579,"gmtModify":1703838325726,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>国产三杰飞完大哥飞，加油[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>国产三杰飞完大哥飞，加油[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$国产三杰飞完大哥飞，加油[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307215457","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302912249,"gmtCreate":1604507876881,"gmtModify":1703833565531,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>我是坚定不移的新能源投资者，小牛的增长空间还很大，电动智能助力车领域，潜在消费市场还很庞大，今年的下沉市场新车型很成功","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>我是坚定不移的新能源投资者，小牛的增长空间还很大，电动智能助力车领域，潜在消费市场还很庞大，今年的下沉市场新车型很成功","text":"$小牛电动(NIU)$我是坚定不移的新能源投资者，小牛的增长空间还很大，电动智能助力车领域，潜在消费市场还很庞大，今年的下沉市场新车型很成功","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302912249","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464294287504557","authorId":"3464294287504557","name":"老铁来了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2464e458a80641114f6239a95fd33b5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"就是盘子小，不活跃，哎","text":"就是盘子小，不活跃，哎","html":"就是盘子小，不活跃，哎"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975735628,"gmtCreate":1600829684764,"gmtModify":1703822610578,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"价值投资需要耐心，坚持自己的判断","listText":"价值投资需要耐心，坚持自己的判断","text":"价值投资需要耐心，坚持自己的判断","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975735628","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972695220,"gmtCreate":1600193348860,"gmtModify":1703820713766,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>最糟糕的apple event，没有之一!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>最糟糕的apple event，没有之一!","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$最糟糕的apple event，没有之一!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972695220","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976661471,"gmtCreate":1599705050293,"gmtModify":1703819414261,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">$农夫山泉(09633)$</a>一直专注价值投资，我的综合成本大概36，翻倍后72我们再回来看，它用了多少天，静待花开。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">$农夫山泉(09633)$</a>一直专注价值投资，我的综合成本大概36，翻倍后72我们再回来看，它用了多少天，静待花开。","text":"$农夫山泉(09633)$一直专注价值投资，我的综合成本大概36，翻倍后72我们再回来看，它用了多少天，静待花开。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976661471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973288200,"gmtCreate":1598542367400,"gmtModify":1704219473732,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>10元等你","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>10元等你","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$10元等你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973288200","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970175276,"gmtCreate":1597725328395,"gmtModify":1704216442897,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这种为了黑而黑的文章没有意义，标题就是来引战的。研发是有周期的，研发投入也是有阶段性策略的，文章作者凭着自己的主观臆测，强行给蔚来缩水，作为车主，我没听到新车友遇到减配，按照作者的逻辑，赚钱就得砸更多到研发上？理解苹果为什么裁减新能源车研发项目吗？知道为什么很多造车新势力胎死腹中吗？知道特斯拉为什么在初期阶段性缩减研发投入吗？如果不能理解，就请不要大言不惭。","listText":"这种为了黑而黑的文章没有意义，标题就是来引战的。研发是有周期的，研发投入也是有阶段性策略的，文章作者凭着自己的主观臆测，强行给蔚来缩水，作为车主，我没听到新车友遇到减配，按照作者的逻辑，赚钱就得砸更多到研发上？理解苹果为什么裁减新能源车研发项目吗？知道为什么很多造车新势力胎死腹中吗？知道特斯拉为什么在初期阶段性缩减研发投入吗？如果不能理解，就请不要大言不惭。","text":"这种为了黑而黑的文章没有意义，标题就是来引战的。研发是有周期的，研发投入也是有阶段性策略的，文章作者凭着自己的主观臆测，强行给蔚来缩水，作为车主，我没听到新车友遇到减配，按照作者的逻辑，赚钱就得砸更多到研发上？理解苹果为什么裁减新能源车研发项目吗？知道为什么很多造车新势力胎死腹中吗？知道特斯拉为什么在初期阶段性缩减研发投入吗？如果不能理解，就请不要大言不惭。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970175276","repostId":"1199767469","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942575236,"gmtCreate":1596184121325,"gmtModify":1704211644211,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>感谢理想，吃了点肉，17.30已减仓，等市值回归理性，我还会再加仓的，加油！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>感谢理想，吃了点肉，17.30已减仓，等市值回归理性，我还会再加仓的，加油！","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$感谢理想，吃了点肉，17.30已减仓，等市值回归理性，我还会再加仓的，加油！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942575236","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":156422202,"gmtCreate":1625234835306,"gmtModify":1625234835306,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>呵呵，托管服务，孩子放那里只要安全就可以的服务，一个假期放那指望孩子自己把功课都做了？留帖为证，只要中考高考本质上不变，三家在线教育股价必将翻倍，短则三个月，慢则三年，我们拭目以待。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$新东方(EDU)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">$高途(GOTU)$</a>呵呵，托管服务，孩子放那里只要安全就可以的服务，一个假期放那指望孩子自己把功课都做了？留帖为证，只要中考高考本质上不变，三家在线教育股价必将翻倍，短则三个月，慢则三年，我们拭目以待。","text":"$好未来(TAL)$$新东方(EDU)$$高途(GOTU)$呵呵，托管服务，孩子放那里只要安全就可以的服务，一个假期放那指望孩子自己把功课都做了？留帖为证，只要中考高考本质上不变，三家在线教育股价必将翻倍，短则三个月，慢则三年，我们拭目以待。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156422202","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":9203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3507276673495452","authorId":"3507276673495452","name":"怎么又开始下跌了","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"观点我都同意，但为什么是在线教育涨，不是线下教育涨？相对于线下教育，线上到现在还只能算个伪概念。","text":"观点我都同意，但为什么是在线教育涨，不是线下教育涨？相对于线下教育，线上到现在还只能算个伪概念。","html":"观点我都同意，但为什么是在线教育涨，不是线下教育涨？相对于线下教育，线上到现在还只能算个伪概念。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":217767,"gmtCreate":1531393760673,"gmtModify":1704896643037,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$虎牙(HUYA)$ 送给坚持长线价值投资的各位","listText":"$虎牙(HUYA)$ 送给坚持长线价值投资的各位","text":"$虎牙(HUYA)$ 送给坚持长线价值投资的各位","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe2dcd148b1561c2893e202dc8ecdb02"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/217767","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"138442049989269","authorId":"138442049989269","name":"机构猎杀者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11f0a48f05dbb18dff634cd365cc2d2d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你只要敢一直拿我就佩服你。","text":"你只要敢一直拿我就佩服你。","html":"你只要敢一直拿我就佩服你。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940433011,"gmtCreate":1594036610633,"gmtModify":1704203595041,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>坚持价值投资，未来并不遥远[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>坚持价值投资，未来并不遥远[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$坚持价值投资，未来并不遥远[得意]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/805efc4f69ec8db66cf8026d5c9cd9fa","width":"1176","height":"2091"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940433011","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":218390,"gmtCreate":1531451565915,"gmtModify":1704896714624,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 价值投资","listText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 价值投资","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 价值投资","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f042d9d8dbda2fe294094a8b93b516b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/218390","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3494370975396890","authorId":"3494370975396890","name":"菜鸟hu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"是用港币吗？","text":"是用港币吗？","html":"是用港币吗？"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953007260,"gmtCreate":1590050472550,"gmtModify":1704191622948,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>坐标江苏，身边父母们没人听过这个平台，数据是个笑话吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>坐标江苏，身边父母们没人听过这个平台，数据是个笑话吧","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$坐标江苏，身边父母们没人听过这个平台，数据是个笑话吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953007260","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3541076188424991","authorId":"3541076188424991","name":"花亭湖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50db6452e45255335ac06bbdb744a875","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"这货说利润暴增10倍呢，我在北京，亲戚朋友2，3，4，5线城市没有一个人听说过这货","text":"这货说利润暴增10倍呢，我在北京，亲戚朋友2，3，4，5线城市没有一个人听说过这货","html":"这货说利润暴增10倍呢，我在北京，亲戚朋友2，3，4，5线城市没有一个人听说过这货"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":916270731,"gmtCreate":1579610841223,"gmtModify":1704339961865,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$3M(MMM)$ 3M口罩已经全国缺货，买买买$3M(MMM)$ ","listText":"$3M(MMM)$ 3M口罩已经全国缺货，买买买$3M(MMM)$ ","text":"$3M(MMM)$ 3M口罩已经全国缺货，买买买$3M(MMM)$ ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916270731","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332110523,"gmtCreate":1610356381162,"gmtModify":1703743677505,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>祝车友们发财，我先落袋为安回家过年了！牛年再战！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>祝车友们发财，我先落袋为安回家过年了！牛年再战！","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$$特斯拉(TSLA)$祝车友们发财，我先落袋为安回家过年了！牛年再战！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332110523","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976661471,"gmtCreate":1599705050293,"gmtModify":1703819414261,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">$农夫山泉(09633)$</a>一直专注价值投资，我的综合成本大概36，翻倍后72我们再回来看，它用了多少天，静待花开。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">$农夫山泉(09633)$</a>一直专注价值投资，我的综合成本大概36，翻倍后72我们再回来看，它用了多少天，静待花开。","text":"$农夫山泉(09633)$一直专注价值投资，我的综合成本大概36，翻倍后72我们再回来看，它用了多少天，静待花开。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976661471","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970175276,"gmtCreate":1597725328395,"gmtModify":1704216442897,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这种为了黑而黑的文章没有意义，标题就是来引战的。研发是有周期的，研发投入也是有阶段性策略的，文章作者凭着自己的主观臆测，强行给蔚来缩水，作为车主，我没听到新车友遇到减配，按照作者的逻辑，赚钱就得砸更多到研发上？理解苹果为什么裁减新能源车研发项目吗？知道为什么很多造车新势力胎死腹中吗？知道特斯拉为什么在初期阶段性缩减研发投入吗？如果不能理解，就请不要大言不惭。","listText":"这种为了黑而黑的文章没有意义，标题就是来引战的。研发是有周期的，研发投入也是有阶段性策略的，文章作者凭着自己的主观臆测，强行给蔚来缩水，作为车主，我没听到新车友遇到减配，按照作者的逻辑，赚钱就得砸更多到研发上？理解苹果为什么裁减新能源车研发项目吗？知道为什么很多造车新势力胎死腹中吗？知道特斯拉为什么在初期阶段性缩减研发投入吗？如果不能理解，就请不要大言不惭。","text":"这种为了黑而黑的文章没有意义，标题就是来引战的。研发是有周期的，研发投入也是有阶段性策略的，文章作者凭着自己的主观臆测，强行给蔚来缩水，作为车主，我没听到新车友遇到减配，按照作者的逻辑，赚钱就得砸更多到研发上？理解苹果为什么裁减新能源车研发项目吗？知道为什么很多造车新势力胎死腹中吗？知道特斯拉为什么在初期阶段性缩减研发投入吗？如果不能理解，就请不要大言不惭。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970175276","repostId":"1199767469","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199767469","pubTimestamp":1597716870,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199767469?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-18 10:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"李斌向资本低头，蔚来能涨40倍？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199767469","media":"锦缎","summary":"投降于资本市场的蔚来，对于用户来说，未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。","content":"<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头，在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间，它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos），天不生杰夫·贝索斯，长期主义万古如长夜：</p><p>1997年IPO时投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>，23年来2000倍回报，年化收益率39%。</p><p>长期的选择带来长期的收益，企业状况会越来越好；短期的选择带来短期的收益，企业状况刚开始还可以，以后可能每况愈下。<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>走在后面这条路上，它向资本市场低头了。</b></p><p>如果一家企业向资本市场投降，向股东投降，最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本，即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本，最典型的莫过于<b>研发投入</b>。</p><p><b>前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说，蔚来要涨40倍。</b>呵呵，从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司，研发投入不跟上，股价还能涨40倍的。</p><p>话说回来，之所以短期利益变得更加重要，也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资，但这并不简单，也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议，如果完不成，蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。</p><p><i><b>01、</b></i><b>“投降”趋势</b></p><p>蔚来在研发投入上的态度，从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是：</p><ul><li><p><b>没钱砍研发。</b>2019年下半年，蔚来融资不利，现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降，2019Q3，同比+0%；2019Q4，同比-33%；2020Q1，同比-52%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱砍研发。</b>2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资，以及六家银行百亿授信，2020Q2，同比-58%。</p></li></ul><ul><li><p><b>有钱没钱砍研发。</b>8月11日的电话会里，蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的，“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内，我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发，大约5-6亿元/季度的投入，每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf869884d2cb671b913e63058da55b8c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"598\"></p><p>▲图1：蔚来研发费用。来源：公司财报，锦缎。</p><p><b>预感有人会拿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>出来说事，这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。</b></p><p>现在的特斯拉，从单季度营收来看，当前的蔚来（Q2收入37.2亿元）大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当，后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元（按当时6.28的汇率，折合人民币35.3亿元）。</p><p>特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级（单个季度三四十亿元）的2013年，四个季度研发费用分别同比下降：-19%，-31%，-10%，-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以？</p><p>蔚来当然不可以，橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦，我们具体问题具体分析：</p><p>当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞，四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元，经营的不确定很大。这个时期，研发费用下降无可厚非，下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢，交付量节节攀升：</p><ul><li><p>2019年Q4交付量为8224辆，平均89.4辆/天；</p></li><li><p>中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势；</p></li><li><p>2020年Q2交付量为10331辆，平均113.5辆/天；</p></li><li><p>2020年Q3可能也会不错，因为除了ES6和ES8，EC6九月份也要开始交付了。</p></li></ul><p>交付量上去了，营收上去了，研发费用却大幅降低，情况就是这么个情况，这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。<b>这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协，一种投降。</b></p><p>投降于资本市场的蔚来，对于用户来说，未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。</p><p><i><b>02、</b></i><b>实惠减少</b></p><p>二季度，蔚来迎来里程碑时刻：毛利率转正且可持续（预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1608af6bd25c3ef5316a9447a3330da7\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"471\"></p><p>▲图2：蔚来毛利率变化图。来源：公司财报，锦缎。</p><p>这对股东来说是好事，这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个：</p><p><b>第一，&nbsp;规模效应。</b></p><p>这个大家都懂，规模大了，工人更熟练，学习曲线上去了，浪费减少，毛利率自然提高。</p><p>但是，咱回头来看看，规模确实提高了，今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆，这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗？改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗（去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%）？如果是这样，月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高？</p><p>所以我们认为，这次毛利率转正过程中，规模效应不是主要的原因。</p><p><b>第二，节省BOM。</b></p><p>BOM即Bill of Material，物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说，“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率，我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间，例如通过节省BOM等方式，10%是可以实现的，但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间，从各方面来说都有改善机会，但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”</p><p>过去，蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力，为了用户不惜用料，你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题，也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。</p><p>而现在，蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制，表示，“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究，实惠减少了。</p><p><i><b>03、</b></i><b>魔幻蔚来</b></p><p>研发费用变少，实惠可能也会逐步变少，那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心，又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢？</p><p>答案是：AI的故事，无人驾驶的故事。</p><p>2020年8月14日，媒体消息：任少卿加盟蔚来，担任“助理副总裁”。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/144993b8bdf14aed2338ac07690fb403\" tg-width=\"365\" tg-height=\"645\"></p><p>▲图3：任少卿简历。</p><p>引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述：</p><blockquote>“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊！Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络，它试图拟合残差，训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone；而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术，无敌的存在。而任少卿，基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn，他是一作！”</blockquote><p>科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点，这简直是男人的Viagra。</p><p>蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力，任少卿加盟支撑算法，再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”，L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗？</p><p>在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道，但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人，早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看，Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶，高科技感十足的专利聚类包括：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8daed259f14788161671f442b507a74b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\"></p><p>▲图4：Faraday Future专利分类。来源：incopat</p><p>模式识别302件；导航数据203件；位置测量误差202件；集成驱动185件；门铰链173件。最终，Faraday Future尘归尘，土归土。<b>多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想，不应该给予折现。</b></p><p>理智的看，自动驾驶商用化很难，技术上无法实现，法规上还未配套，可能5-10年以后情况会改观，但不是现在。</p><p><b>但这又有什么关系呢，反正能讲的故事变多了：故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。</b></p><p>一种循环，永不落幕。</p>","source":"lsy1596593134739","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李斌向资本低头，蔚来能涨40倍？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李斌向资本低头，蔚来能涨40倍？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-18 10:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA><strong>锦缎</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头，在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间，它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos），天不生杰夫·贝索斯，长期主义万古如长夜：1997年IPO时投资亚马逊，23年来2000倍回报，年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益，企业状况会越来越好；短期的选择带来短期的收益，企业状况刚开始还可以，以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上，它向...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vsxEy0DxZth38vdLhJ9HGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199767469","content_text":"优秀的上市公司永远不向资本市场低头，在最大化利润表和最大化未来现金流之间，它们毫不犹豫的选择后者。最极限的代表是杰夫·贝索斯（Jeff Bezos），天不生杰夫·贝索斯，长期主义万古如长夜：1997年IPO时投资亚马逊，23年来2000倍回报，年化收益率39%。长期的选择带来长期的收益，企业状况会越来越好；短期的选择带来短期的收益，企业状况刚开始还可以，以后可能每况愈下。蔚来走在后面这条路上，它向资本市场低头了。如果一家企业向资本市场投降，向股东投降，最显著的观察点是减少了策略性成本。所谓策略性可变成本，即直接涉及并提高长期业绩表现的成本，最典型的莫过于研发投入。前两天看到有个魔怔投资者说，蔚来要涨40倍。呵呵，从来没听说处于追赶段位的公司，研发投入不跟上，股价还能涨40倍的。话说回来，之所以短期利益变得更加重要，也许是因为李斌真的穷怕了。困难重重之下终于拿到融资，但这并不简单，也不是毫无条件的。安徽这70亿元的战略投资有严苛的对赌协议，如果完不成，蔚来得以8.5%的年复合增长率回购其股份。01、“投降”趋势蔚来在研发投入上的态度，从数字上来看一览无余。总结下来是：没钱砍研发。2019年下半年，蔚来融资不利，现金流紧张开始。蔚来的研发费用从那时开始同比大幅下降，2019Q3，同比+0%；2019Q4，同比-33%；2020Q1，同比-52%。有钱砍研发。2020年4月得到安徽70亿元投资，以及六家银行百亿授信，2020Q2，同比-58%。有钱没钱砍研发。8月11日的电话会里，蔚来管理层对研发投入的描述是这样的，“保证每年研发投入在30亿元以内，我们会围绕下一代自动驾驶技术进行研发，大约5-6亿元/季度的投入，每个季度的投入将根据车型开发进度进行调整。”预算大致固定了。▲图1：蔚来研发费用。来源：公司财报，锦缎。预感有人会拿特斯拉出来说事，这里提前堵住反对票的嘴。现在的特斯拉，从单季度营收来看，当前的蔚来（Q2收入37.2亿元）大致和2013年Q1的特斯拉相当，后者2013年Q1收入5.6亿元（按当时6.28的汇率，折合人民币35.3亿元）。特斯拉在蔚来这个收入量级（单个季度三四十亿元）的2013年，四个季度研发费用分别同比下降：-19%，-31%，-10%，-1%。老大哥特斯拉研发费用都可以下降为什么蔚来不可以？蔚来当然不可以，橘生淮南淮北可甜可苦，我们具体问题具体分析：当时特斯拉环比收入陷入停滞，四个季度营收分别是5.6亿美元、4.1亿美元、4.3亿美元和6.15亿美元，经营的不确定很大。这个时期，研发费用下降无可厚非，下降也没蔚来往腰斩去这么恐怖。而蔚来呢，交付量节节攀升：2019年Q4交付量为8224辆，平均89.4辆/天；中间2020年Q1新冠病毒挖了个小坑但并不影响向上的趋势；2020年Q2交付量为10331辆，平均113.5辆/天；2020年Q3可能也会不错，因为除了ES6和ES8，EC6九月份也要开始交付了。交付量上去了，营收上去了，研发费用却大幅降低，情况就是这么个情况，这是与特斯拉营收大致相同阶段的不同之处。这是对资本市场盈利压力之下的一种妥协，一种投降。投降于资本市场的蔚来，对于用户来说，未来趋势是“实惠变少奇幻变多”。02、实惠减少二季度，蔚来迎来里程碑时刻：毛利率转正且可持续（预计Q3和Q4能维持正毛利）。▲图2：蔚来毛利率变化图。来源：公司财报，锦缎。这对股东来说是好事，这对用户来说就不一定了。蔚来解释它提高毛利率的武器有两个：第一， 规模效应。这个大家都懂，规模大了，工人更熟练，学习曲线上去了，浪费减少，毛利率自然提高。但是，咱回头来看看，规模确实提高了，今年Q2比去年Q4交付量多了2107辆，这会对生产效率产生极大改善吗？改善足矣大到里外里17.3%的差距吗（去年Q4毛利率为-8.9%）？如果是这样，月交付量到了5000辆毛利率得有多高？所以我们认为，这次毛利率转正过程中，规模效应不是主要的原因。第二，节省BOM。BOM即Bill of Material，物料。蔚来管理层在电话会上说，“Q3和Q4我们会维持毛利率，我们预测我们仍然有一些进步的空间，例如通过节省BOM等方式，10%是可以实现的，但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现。我们可以看到毛利率有提升空间，从各方面来说都有改善机会，但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事。”过去，蔚来的ES8/ES6造的很卖力，为了用户不惜用料，你很难听到有车评人士说“蔚来有座椅特别硬这样的硬伤”——这是理想汽车(NASDAQ:LI)被喷的很多的问题，也是外界认为理想在很低的销量之下毛利率为正的原因。而现在，蔚来节省BOM换取毛利率。虽然管理层也知道节制，表示，“但是更进一步的话我们不希望在目前实现……但目前我们希望用谨慎的角度来看待这件事……”但终究，实惠减少了。03、魔幻蔚来研发费用变少，实惠可能也会逐步变少，那蔚来要拿什么来俘获用户的芳心，又要向还没入场的资本市场投资者讲出什么样的故事呢？答案是：AI的故事，无人驾驶的故事。2020年8月14日，媒体消息：任少卿加盟蔚来，担任“助理副总裁”。▲图3：任少卿简历。引用任少卿的学术圈地位的描述：“他是AI图像识别检测圈无人不晓的大神啊！Resnet 和 faster rcnn 是当下深度学习发展阶段的重要里程碑。Resnet不同于以往的网络，它试图拟合残差，训练速度快。目前也是各种深度学习应用的backbone；而 faster rcnn 是两阶段目标检测的sota技术，无敌的存在。而任少卿，基本是这俩深度学习算法相关顶级论文的参与作者。Faster rcnn，他是一作！”科技新能源车最酷炫的卖点，这简直是男人的Viagra。蔚来有mobileye的芯片支撑算力，任少卿加盟支撑算法，再加上不断交付的车辆增强数据。活脱脱的“AI造车新势力”，L4自动驾驶的目标还会远吗？在自动驾驶方面能走多远不知道，但这一点需要我们足够的警惕。因为“下周回国”的那个男人，早已砍掉了我们对科技的溢价。你看，Faraday Future偏向无人驾驶，高科技感十足的专利聚类包括：▲图4：Faraday Future专利分类。来源：incopat模式识别302件；导航数据203件；位置测量误差202件；集成驱动185件；门铰链173件。最终，Faraday Future尘归尘，土归土。多年以后不确定能不能实现的梦想，不应该给予折现。理智的看，自动驾驶商用化很难，技术上无法实现，法规上还未配套，可能5-10年以后情况会改观，但不是现在。但这又有什么关系呢，反正能讲的故事变多了：故事——交付量——收入——估值——故事。一种循环，永不落幕。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390725674,"gmtCreate":1605869144798,"gmtModify":1703840178735,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"笑死了，怕是不知道什么是增程式电动车，理想当然不会成为蔚来或者特斯拉，正是因为充电设施局限，它才是现阶段最适合中国市场的新能源车，这些洋媒体动不动就来做空中概股，等着瞧吧。","listText":"笑死了，怕是不知道什么是增程式电动车，理想当然不会成为蔚来或者特斯拉，正是因为充电设施局限，它才是现阶段最适合中国市场的新能源车，这些洋媒体动不动就来做空中概股，等着瞧吧。","text":"笑死了，怕是不知道什么是增程式电动车，理想当然不会成为蔚来或者特斯拉，正是因为充电设施局限，它才是现阶段最适合中国市场的新能源车，这些洋媒体动不动就来做空中概股，等着瞧吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390725674","repostId":"2084282498","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302912249,"gmtCreate":1604507876881,"gmtModify":1703833565531,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>我是坚定不移的新能源投资者，小牛的增长空间还很大，电动智能助力车领域，潜在消费市场还很庞大，今年的下沉市场新车型很成功","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>我是坚定不移的新能源投资者，小牛的增长空间还很大，电动智能助力车领域，潜在消费市场还很庞大，今年的下沉市场新车型很成功","text":"$小牛电动(NIU)$我是坚定不移的新能源投资者，小牛的增长空间还很大，电动智能助力车领域，潜在消费市场还很庞大，今年的下沉市场新车型很成功","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302912249","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3464294287504557","authorId":"3464294287504557","name":"老铁来了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2464e458a80641114f6239a95fd33b5","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"就是盘子小，不活跃，哎","text":"就是盘子小，不活跃，哎","html":"就是盘子小，不活跃，哎"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958190389,"gmtCreate":1591190610041,"gmtModify":1704194719228,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>哈哈哈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>哈哈哈","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$哈哈哈","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23e537d5d5052bbfcd4ceeaf27af514d","width":"1440","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958190389","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141140301,"gmtCreate":1625843373403,"gmtModify":1625843373403,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a>基金建仓了，该来的总会来","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">$好未来(TAL)$</a>基金建仓了，该来的总会来","text":"$好未来(TAL)$基金建仓了，该来的总会来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141140301","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332442087,"gmtCreate":1610460779349,"gmtModify":1703744465536,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> &nbsp;虽然我已经清仓一身轻，也觉得短期内利好出尽。但还是奉劝做空的朋友，远离这支，否则会很惨。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> &nbsp;虽然我已经清仓一身轻，也觉得短期内利好出尽。但还是奉劝做空的朋友，远离这支，否则会很惨。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 虽然我已经清仓一身轻，也觉得短期内利好出尽。但还是奉劝做空的朋友，远离这支，否则会很惨。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332442087","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972695220,"gmtCreate":1600193348860,"gmtModify":1703820713766,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>最糟糕的apple event，没有之一!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>最糟糕的apple event，没有之一!","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$最糟糕的apple event，没有之一!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972695220","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":958690679,"gmtCreate":1591251046691,"gmtModify":1704194986082,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>别折腾这股了，玩不过庄家的，只要没有立案调查，主动权就掌握在资本方的手上，想玩双杀就自曝作假，想干爆空头就持续见招拆招的诱多，做空是有利率的，时间消耗的就是金钱。你们想被庄家折腾的继续，我先撤了，告辞。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>别折腾这股了，玩不过庄家的，只要没有立案调查，主动权就掌握在资本方的手上，想玩双杀就自曝作假，想干爆空头就持续见招拆招的诱多，做空是有利率的，时间消耗的就是金钱。你们想被庄家折腾的继续，我先撤了，告辞。","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$别折腾这股了，玩不过庄家的，只要没有立案调查，主动权就掌握在资本方的手上，想玩双杀就自曝作假，想干爆空头就持续见招拆招的诱多，做空是有利率的，时间消耗的就是金钱。你们想被庄家折腾的继续，我先撤了，告辞。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/958690679","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3540680319507322","authorId":"3540680319507322","name":"OtisBen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你走早了，兄弟","text":"你走早了，兄弟","html":"你走早了，兄弟"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913583066,"gmtCreate":1577721877855,"gmtModify":1704336197703,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;减仓吃肉，虽然看好这家公司，但速度也别太快，请脚踏实地稳健发展吧。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;减仓吃肉，虽然看好这家公司，但速度也别太快，请脚踏实地稳健发展吧。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 减仓吃肉，虽然看好这家公司，但速度也别太快，请脚踏实地稳健发展吧。$特斯拉(TSLA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8084d2111bf757915e9cf2db764425f2","width":"1080","height":"2013"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913583066","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":909443636,"gmtCreate":1556627744425,"gmtModify":1704800854888,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 这速度有点惊人，虽然我觉得它还远远低估，但太快了","listText":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 这速度有点惊人，虽然我觉得它还远远低估，但太快了","text":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 这速度有点惊人，虽然我觉得它还远远低估，但太快了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7532fb67517123ee5d3f60583b6900"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/909443636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":311124722,"gmtCreate":1611767826166,"gmtModify":1703753651541,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 静待花开，晚安&#x10;！","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 静待花开，晚安&#x10;！","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 静待花开，晚安\u0010！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311124722","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393936041,"gmtCreate":1606222990183,"gmtModify":1703841785891,"author":{"id":"3461026910453051","authorId":"3461026910453051","name":"frankyxu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>在这个舞台，是金子你总会发光发亮 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">$小牛电动(NIU)$</a>在这个舞台，是金子你总会发光发亮 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>","text":"$小牛电动(NIU)$在这个舞台，是金子你总会发光发亮 $蔚来(NIO)$$理想汽车(LI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393936041","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}