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Aoeivu
2022-12-28
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
盘前拉升,空头可真过分,先诱多在骗一次韭菜,197抄底 167抄底 161抄底,次次天花板,反正我认为这次绝对是诱多,量才1.95亿。除非特斯拉回购,或者3w刀的特斯拉开售,不然我就不入场,经不起空头和马斯克一起割了一茬又一茬。
Aoeivu
2023-01-05
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这put能买吗?应该是欧式期权,买了后是到期我能以400一股的价格卖给他吗?
Aoeivu
2022-12-20
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
148止损 继续观望
Aoeivu
2023-03-02
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
200call又反手入了。坐等
Aoeivu
2023-03-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
为什么我看好特斯拉。 我本来买特斯拉股票。不会想着买车。 直到美国的死亡悬崖事件。 对比蔚来那个三楼掉下来好像都没了。 在这次理想40追尾车主还可能要做手术。 车这东西真就一代步工具。安全才是主要的。 其次是好开。
Aoeivu
2022-12-20
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今天140。明天126
Aoeivu
2023-02-27
$陆金所(LU)$
长期看涨。短期可能跌。 去年年报出来如果跌到2以下那就是进场机会。
Aoeivu
2023-02-08
$知乎(ZH)$
百度的文心一言真的搞出来,第一个死的就是知乎这个小说app
Aoeivu
2023-01-27
$陆金所(LU)$
我走啦,这里拉太慢了,看看这几天回调还是继续向上。回调我再回来。2的成本美滋滋
Aoeivu
2022-12-22
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
感觉三月底交车就是扯淡...如果是真的现在起码拉到1块以上了
Aoeivu
2023-02-28
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
又开始洗盘了。 还是那句话..1开头的特斯拉就是捡钱。
Aoeivu
2023-01-13
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
都知道降价是利好,但是我就故意接着消息做空[微笑] 有本事砸到99啊
Aoeivu
2023-01-27
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
开干开干,一下子162 159 162把我惊呆了
Aoeivu
2023-01-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
今天应该是低开,看散户割肉情况决定要不要高走,情况顺利应该是114收盘
Aoeivu
2023-02-26
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
下周一210,下周二230
Aoeivu
2023-01-31
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
都在揣着明白装糊涂, 就这么说吧,查一下2022年美国model 3 y销量,然后拿上计算器算一下销量*7500, 然后降价加补贴一万多美元,今年的销量增长就当百分之50不过分吧,全场六折多买车。 就补贴都能薅出2022年大半的盈利。 如果一月数据出来大爆,你品,你细品。
Aoeivu
2023-01-28
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
逼空到200 大佬们加油。 我这边期权总收益百分之200多了。
Aoeivu
2023-01-26
$英伟达(NVDA)$
199爆仓[笑哭] 吸取经验,以后再也不做空了。
Aoeivu
2022-12-22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
卖了特斯拉,去爱奇艺,真的是舒服,今天3.89跑路,成本3.6
Aoeivu
2023-01-07
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
年底call已备好,200,拭目以待
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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出一点特斯拉换点腾讯。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627197060","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4090129223813410","authorId":"4090129223813410","name":"点金胜手1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc40cf1903ac9498bb09d5d4c181150a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090129223813410","authorIdStr":"4090129223813410"},"content":"腾讯可以再等等","text":"腾讯可以再等等","html":"腾讯可以再等等"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":627196551,"gmtCreate":1678096472873,"gmtModify":1678096474101,"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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</a>看样子这情况是打算横盘到三月底。把这一轮的call都闷杀。然后韩国散户洗下来在发车了。 继续看涨特斯拉。不为别的,投资特斯拉又有车的百分之40增长,还有fsd可能的变现。 还有太阳能和蓄能作为第二增长线。 等着欧洲medel y下探到3.99w欧长续航4.5 德国工厂加油吧。实在是太拉垮了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>看样子这情况是打算横盘到三月底。把这一轮的call都闷杀。然后韩国散户洗下来在发车了。 继续看涨特斯拉。不为别的,投资特斯拉又有车的百分之40增长,还有fsd可能的变现。 还有太阳能和蓄能作为第二增长线。 等着欧洲medel y下探到3.99w欧长续航4.5 德国工厂加油吧。实在是太拉垮了。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 看样子这情况是打算横盘到三月底。把这一轮的call都闷杀。然后韩国散户洗下来在发车了。 继续看涨特斯拉。不为别的,投资特斯拉又有车的百分之40增长,还有fsd可能的变现。 还有太阳能和蓄能作为第二增长线。 等着欧洲medel y下探到3.99w欧长续航4.5 德国工厂加油吧。实在是太拉垮了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627039260","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624797831,"gmtCreate":1677681535323,"gmtModify":1677681536359,"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>又是捡钱时刻。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>又是捡钱时刻。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 又是捡钱时刻。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624797831","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624700691,"gmtCreate":1677672710913,"gmtModify":1677672779416,"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>今天还是低开低走,尾盘重新起来的洗盘节奏。 坐等晚上投资者日 。 看涨到230","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>今天还是低开低走,尾盘重新起来的洗盘节奏。 坐等晚上投资者日 。 看涨到230","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今天还是低开低走,尾盘重新起来的洗盘节奏。 坐等晚上投资者日 。 看涨到230","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624700691","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624409818,"gmtCreate":1677600671134,"gmtModify":1677601824275,"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">$斗鱼(DOYU)$ </a>2022年每股收益顶天了-0.5人民币。按照现在的资产还能折腾不少年。坐等22年年报。 有人知道什么时候出吗?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">$斗鱼(DOYU)$ </a>2022年每股收益顶天了-0.5人民币。按照现在的资产还能折腾不少年。坐等22年年报。 有人知道什么时候出吗?","text":"$斗鱼(DOYU)$ 2022年每股收益顶天了-0.5人民币。按照现在的资产还能折腾不少年。坐等22年年报。 有人知道什么时候出吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624409818","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624409363,"gmtCreate":1677600520952,"gmtModify":1677600523498,"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">$斗鱼(DOYU)$ </a>抄底了。有本事跌到五毛 我继续加仓。风险有限。利润可能能到3-4块。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DOYU\">$斗鱼(DOYU)$ </a>抄底了。有本事跌到五毛 我继续加仓。风险有限。利润可能能到3-4块。","text":"$斗鱼(DOYU)$ 抄底了。有本事跌到五毛 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还是那句话..1开头的特斯拉就是捡钱。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624571158","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"content":"一月六号买的特斯拉200 call。二月17到期。本金150 盈利2400多。16号最高到了5000多。可惜太贪了。","text":"一月六号买的特斯拉200 call。二月17到期。本金150 盈利2400多。16号最高到了5000多。可惜太贪了。","html":"一月六号买的特斯拉200 call。二月17到期。本金150 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>贪婪走起。看好投资日前起飞(可以参考财报前两天,估计是有消息了)。要么发财提车,要么亏掉本金。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$贪婪走起。看好投资日前起飞(可以参考财报前两天,估计是有消息了)。要么发财提车,要么亏掉本金。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624248678","repostId":"624636252","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":624636252,"gmtCreate":1677342369776,"gmtModify":1677342370737,"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>下周一210,下周二230","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>下周一210,下周二230","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 下周一210,下周二230","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624636252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624258494,"gmtCreate":1677511135119,"gmtModify":1677511136314,"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">$陆金所(LU)$ </a>长期看涨。短期可能跌。 去年年报出来如果跌到2以下那就是进场机会。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LU\">$陆金所(LU)$ </a>长期看涨。短期可能跌。 去年年报出来如果跌到2以下那就是进场机会。","text":"$陆金所(LU)$ 长期看涨。短期可能跌。 去年年报出来如果跌到2以下那就是进场机会。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624258494","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"content":"现在主要的问题还是棒子上位。 我不管原因。 先观望吧。 如果能拿两年以上可以入场。","text":"现在主要的问题还是棒子上位。 我不管原因。 先观望吧。 如果能拿两年以上可以入场。","html":"现在主要的问题还是棒子上位。 我不管原因。 先观望吧。 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20:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"《狂飙》救不了长视频","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2314555009","media":"格隆汇","summary":"好的内容从不缺观众","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/94f4a-b77ec9e5-d4e5-4f2d-b4d7-3a0957184a93.png\"/></p><p>把自制头部内容视作平台的核心驱动力,这让爱优腾和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>愈发神似。</p><p><span>长视频赛道存在着著名的“飞轮效应”,为了实现持续的盈利,初期就必须加大内容投入,用优质内容吸引会员订阅,当单个用户收入增速大于内容投入成本的增长时,经营杠杆发挥了巨大的作用,源源不断的现金流得以让飞轮持续运转。</span></p><p><span>从2004年乐视成立至今,中国长视频走过将近二十年外争和内卷的岁月,用户规模触碰到了一个相对平稳的位置。去年,在内容供给相对贫乏的小年,赛道玩家放弃了高速增长的执念,转向对实现盈利的追求。</span></p><p><span>同样的增长隐忧,也发生在海外流媒体巨头上,从今年开始,奈飞不再公布订阅用户指引,转而将重心放在了盈利和现金流增长上。在经济增速放缓的全球市场里,奈飞的对手更加强劲。</span></p><p><span>想让飞轮运转的长视频玩家们,正在逐渐转换思路。</span></p><h3><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">当流量不再是增长目标</font></span></strong></span></strong></h3><p><span>流量高速增长的阶段是所有互联网应用的蜜月期,这个时候很多赛道领头羊都喜欢仰望星空,估值即信仰。然而随着战略和定位的失焦,脚下的步伐也越来越“沉重”。与此同时,赛道却是越来越狭窄的,长视频也不例外。</span></p><p><span>前几年,长视频最大的淤结在供给上,流量池子很大,鱼很肥美,龚宇幻想着怎么“一鱼多吃”,像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>一样,从内容创作到周边,把生态一步步搭建起来。从收入的多元化来看,野心早就大过还在提高用户规模的奈飞。</span></p><p><span>但筑池子的材料特别昂贵。购买版权的费用飙升,从2011年算起头部版权的剧集单价涨了近30倍。流量明星加持的原创剧原本定位爆款,片酬更是动辄几千万以上。18-21年,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>平均每年的内容投入大概215亿元。</span></p><p><span>疫情三年,内容制作端逐渐枯竭,去年电视剧类的备案数量从19年的905部减少至472部。平台议价能力虽然有所提升,但用户规模增长已经逐渐放缓,这时候流量杀手出现了。</span></p><p><span>抖音、快手们用更高效的分发机制满足了现代人的精神娱乐消费需求,渐渐把长视频踩在用户时长的最底端。从广告,内容制作到电商的生态搭建,短视频公司最终用龚宇的美妙设想,击败了爱优腾。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/ff75b-264016ef-0e35-4008-b411-43a2fb217b42.png\"/></p><p><span>眼看着短视频攻城掠池,还把自家未经授权的剧集拿去做二创,爱优腾选择了“合纵”。21年的中国网络视听大会上,三大当家的联手对着“抖B快”一通砭斥。</span></p><p><span>徒做困兽之斗,长视频终成为明日黄花,如今抖音接近8亿的月活,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>视频和爱奇艺一时瑜亮,一直在4-5亿之间横踱,后面B站、西瓜视频则虎视眈眈。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>内容投资的投入回报比越来越低,用户规模增长似乎也已经到了天花板。</span></strong></span><span>在真正实现盈利和可持续的现金流之前,除了借债融资,长视频玩家别无他路。</span></p><p><span>飞轮转不动,再赚不到钱,投资人也不愿意继续买单。爱奇艺从15年到现在,累计亏损超过了400亿元。去年曾经传出大股东<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>想要出售股份的传言,传言虽假,融资难在当下互联网寒冬却十分普遍。大环境变了,也已经不再允许在线视频们任性地撒钱了。</span></p><p><span>25岁的奈飞曾在不到10年的时间借了超过160亿美元来支撑内容投入,期许在债务到期前能够产生足够的收入来偿还债务,并且维持庞大的预算开支。</span></p><p><span>但这个目标直到21年才算真正实现,国外流媒体赛道在这两年涌入了像迪士尼、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>这种不愁钱,也不愁内容的巨头,随着国外经济增速逐渐放缓,奈飞从今年也开始放弃了用户规模增长的指引,把重心放在提高收入和现金流上。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>到了国内换成了另一个说法,叫做降本增效,开源节流。</span></strong></span><span>从2004年乐视成立开始,国内长视频平台也经历将近20年的时间,在第一个十年里,龚宇就曾经预计在2013年实现盈利,当时对于互联网烧钱那一套,很多人还是迷信。去年爱奇艺首次提出运营层面实现盈亏平衡的目标。</span></p><p><span>九年如白驹过隙,行业在面临新的转折,先前富裕的仗既分出了梯队,也筑起了危墙。只有饥饿和困顿才能让从业者更加清醒,重新思考长视频的价值。</span></p><h3><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></strong></h3><h3><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">《狂飙》会是那部《纸牌屋》吗</font></span></strong></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></span></strong></div><p><span><strong><span>长视频的另一个结构性变化还在于,竞争核心从内容数量转移到了内容质量,通过优质内容来激发更高的付费意愿。</span></strong></span></p><p><span>爆款剧集对流量规模的增长是现象级的,一部《狂飙》足以说明一切。这部剧开播以前,爱奇艺的日活用户大概8700万左右,开播之后不到半个月就达到了峰值1.04亿,还成为了央八近九年来收视第一的“剧王”。虹吸效应下,隔壁同期开播的《三体》相形见绌。</span></p><p><span>就在去年7月,爱奇艺和抖音正式达成合作,方向主要围绕长视频内容的二次创作和推广。某种程度上,《狂飙》的成功,抖音也有功劳。更重要的是,长视频这次认清了形势,打不过就合作,咱们约法三章,各取所需就好。</span></p><p><span>18年爱奇艺推出了内容热度值评价标准,要集中火力做S级、A+级别的头部剧集。自制内容的竞争也开始在行业里卷起,除了版权采购和自制两种形式,为了扶持腰部内容的黑马,各家还提出了分账制度,和创作团队分享收益。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/9c3f0-9f0ce7fe-654c-4526-9f55-d3c66a9cf7ea.png\"/></p><p><span>一时之间,你方唱罢我登场。</span></p><p><span>爱奇艺推出迷雾剧场后,优酷、腾讯视频、芒果TV接连放招,优酷推出了“宠爱剧场”“悬疑剧场”,还和紫金陈达成10部悬疑作品的合作,腾讯推出了“甜蜜仲夏季剧场”,芒果推出了“心动剧场”“季风剧场”。</span></p><p><span>国内长视频玩家把自制内容当成核心竞争力,改变以往盯着流量变现的运营模式,并逐渐开始向奈飞看齐。从18年Q3开始,爱奇艺的付费会员收入开始超过广告业务。</span></p><p><span>奈飞模式,即不断投入生产优质内容来培养用户付费习惯,自13年《纸牌屋》横空出世后,《怪奇物语》、《马男波杰克》等9分神剧帮助奈飞收获订阅人数和收入的快速增长。当单个付费用户平均收入增速超过内容成本增速时,奈飞的经营杠杆就体现出来了。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/f474d-f2a1bea6-0279-45af-a3c8-0487a80ef135.png\"/></p><p><span>去年四季度,爱奇艺的会员数量同比增长了15.1%,这是近5个季度内首次实现用户增长。爆款剧输出稳定性差是普遍的偏见,而Q4订阅年卡的比重明显增加,这说明消费者在各大平台上来回切换的频率在慢慢减少。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>这当中最大的变量来自自制内容的接连“涌现”。</span></strong></span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/5c451-b7ac559d-0009-4f17-a2d2-9472f896ae52.png\"/><strong></strong></p><p><span>去年爱奇艺不止一次“押对宝”,虽然剧集数量,内容投入整体收缩,但是平台加大了对头部原创内容的投入,减少扑街内容,简单说就是“集中力量办大事”。</span></p><p><span>自制剧的密集输出对平台各项经营指标的改善十分显著。22年连续剧网络播放的前二十名,爱奇艺有12部作品上榜,只算独播剧的话,也有将近8部,行业里没有竞对。拿月活最接近的腾讯视频来比较,2022年,爱奇艺全网剧集正片有效播放1190亿,会员内容有效播放614亿;腾讯视频正片有效播放972亿,会员内容有效播放485亿,逐渐拉开差距。</span></p><p><span>自爱奇艺推出内容度热度值评价标准以来,一共才7部热度破万的剧集。而在2022 年,在爱奇艺平台上,全年 5 部内容热度值破万的剧集中,有 4 部是爱奇艺原创剧集。</span><span><strong>这是自14年启动自制剧计划以来取得的一次实质性的突破。</strong></span><span>公司自己的原创内容占比在18年还只有20%,到了去年已经提高到了50%以上。</span></p><p><span>这些数据对于长视频平台的意义,要大于行业头部企业的首次盈利。</span></p><p><span><strong><span>自制内容的突破把爱奇艺的会员规模带出了过去两年多的过渡区间,在线视频平台用户规模长期见顶的趋势之下,长视频赛道玩家更加关注整体变现能力的提升,行业竞争格局会越来越集中。</span></strong></span></p><h3><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></strong></h3><h3><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">不要爆款,要经典!</font></span></strong></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></span></strong></div><p><span>尽管如此,国内长视频赛道还是很难被看好。现阶段国内赛道的成长空间已经饱和,剧集文化影响力在海外渗透缓慢,相比之下,面向全球市场的奈飞有着更大的增长空间和摊平风险的能力,而国内会员增长只能在快满了的流量池里转化。</span></p><p><span>内容投入方向上,除了市场走向,行业监管政策是比较大的不确定因素。内容供给需要确保不会造成负面消极的社会影响,前两年的选秀综艺引发的倒奶事件,则是一档内容节目商业化开发过度引发的社会乱象。剧集制作也有隐患,艺人塌房也可能带来口碑下滑甚至停播的风险。</span></p><p><span>当增长红利渐失,资本环境不允许大规模烧钱满足内容需求时,长视频赛道玩家对于加快实现盈利达成了一种微妙的共识。但套娃式收费,限制投屏、禁止共享账号等行为一次次在试探人们的接受底线,站在平台的角度增加会员消费无可厚非,不过经常会被人诟病“吃相难看”。</span></p><p><span>奈飞的成功经历说明了,持续优质的内容实践使得爆款率有所提升,付费意愿和用户粘性逐渐提高。很多观众对于国内单个平台的信心还是不足的,</span><span><strong>原因在于培育爆款跟经典的差异。</strong></span></p><p><span>国内主流平台的内容寿命偏短,从摊销准则上可见一斑。内容资产的摊销一直是主要的内容成本项,控制摊销才有希望盈利。对于奈飞,平均90%以上的内容资产会在四年内进行摊销。</span></p><p><span>而国内,外购得到的授权剧集第一年就要摊掉百分之七八十的成本,只有自制内容跟奈飞采取一样的方式,按照收入比例去摊销成本,也可以提前锁定毛利率。自制内容比重上升,摊销调整的空间也就越大。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/7a78f-45ab98fb-82ab-49c3-b806-25331e04658c.png\"/></p><p><span>在平台都一一转向自制内容后,长视频的价值增长关键在于提高内容产出和成本的差距,产出是由数量,成功概率以及平均内容产出的有效乘积。</span></p><p><span>内容行业整顿之前,爆款公式是题材加明星流量,这种外购流量剧的模式基本就是在毁灭平台价值。爆款剧是现象级的,可是当中值得被用户反复观看的凤毛麟角,每年一到寒暑档期,撑起屏幕的还是《西游记》、《甄嬛传》这些数十年前的经典剧作。无论是内容产出,还是寿命,经典远胜于爆款。</span></p><p><span>在短视频从长视频那抢走了娱乐需求的那部分时间,差异化竞争下,只有更好的内容才值得观众花时间去欣赏。奈飞运用技术算法来辅助内容投资,但在创作质感、剧本打磨中体现着盈好莱坞百年老厂的韵味。</span><span><strong>如何打造经典内容和沉淀IP,这是国内长视频玩家需要学习的。</strong></span></p><p><span>流媒体赛道既需要大量的资本开支,又无法像创新药那般,一经上市未来一段时间内能够有稳定的现金流。光怪陆离的世界里,内容创作随着媒介的进步降低了门槛,文化流行和消逝的时间间隔在缩短。</span></p><p><span>好的内容能火多久,是个玄学。</span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/582536><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>把自制头部内容视作平台的核心驱动力,这让爱优腾和奈飞愈发神似。长视频赛道存在着著名的“飞轮效应”,为了实现持续的盈利,初期就必须加大内容投入,用优质内容吸引会员订阅,当单个用户收入增速大于内容投入成本的增长时,经营杠杆发挥了巨大的作用,源源不断的现金流得以让飞轮持续运转。从2004年乐视成立至今,中国长视频走过将近二十年外争和内卷的岁月,用户规模触碰到了一个相对平稳的位置。去年,在内容供给相对贫乏...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/582536\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/94f4a-325d361d-2f3f-42fe-b22e-25ece1bf6e30.png","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","IQ":"爱奇艺","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","LU0640798160.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET DYNAMIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0856984785.SGD":"HSBC GIF MANAGED 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INC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/582536","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2314555009","content_text":"把自制头部内容视作平台的核心驱动力,这让爱优腾和奈飞愈发神似。长视频赛道存在着著名的“飞轮效应”,为了实现持续的盈利,初期就必须加大内容投入,用优质内容吸引会员订阅,当单个用户收入增速大于内容投入成本的增长时,经营杠杆发挥了巨大的作用,源源不断的现金流得以让飞轮持续运转。从2004年乐视成立至今,中国长视频走过将近二十年外争和内卷的岁月,用户规模触碰到了一个相对平稳的位置。去年,在内容供给相对贫乏的小年,赛道玩家放弃了高速增长的执念,转向对实现盈利的追求。同样的增长隐忧,也发生在海外流媒体巨头上,从今年开始,奈飞不再公布订阅用户指引,转而将重心放在了盈利和现金流增长上。在经济增速放缓的全球市场里,奈飞的对手更加强劲。想让飞轮运转的长视频玩家们,正在逐渐转换思路。01当流量不再是增长目标流量高速增长的阶段是所有互联网应用的蜜月期,这个时候很多赛道领头羊都喜欢仰望星空,估值即信仰。然而随着战略和定位的失焦,脚下的步伐也越来越“沉重”。与此同时,赛道却是越来越狭窄的,长视频也不例外。前几年,长视频最大的淤结在供给上,流量池子很大,鱼很肥美,龚宇幻想着怎么“一鱼多吃”,像迪士尼一样,从内容创作到周边,把生态一步步搭建起来。从收入的多元化来看,野心早就大过还在提高用户规模的奈飞。但筑池子的材料特别昂贵。购买版权的费用飙升,从2011年算起头部版权的剧集单价涨了近30倍。流量明星加持的原创剧原本定位爆款,片酬更是动辄几千万以上。18-21年,爱奇艺平均每年的内容投入大概215亿元。疫情三年,内容制作端逐渐枯竭,去年电视剧类的备案数量从19年的905部减少至472部。平台议价能力虽然有所提升,但用户规模增长已经逐渐放缓,这时候流量杀手出现了。抖音、快手们用更高效的分发机制满足了现代人的精神娱乐消费需求,渐渐把长视频踩在用户时长的最底端。从广告,内容制作到电商的生态搭建,短视频公司最终用龚宇的美妙设想,击败了爱优腾。眼看着短视频攻城掠池,还把自家未经授权的剧集拿去做二创,爱优腾选择了“合纵”。21年的中国网络视听大会上,三大当家的联手对着“抖B快”一通砭斥。徒做困兽之斗,长视频终成为明日黄花,如今抖音接近8亿的月活,腾讯视频和爱奇艺一时瑜亮,一直在4-5亿之间横踱,后面B站、西瓜视频则虎视眈眈。内容投资的投入回报比越来越低,用户规模增长似乎也已经到了天花板。在真正实现盈利和可持续的现金流之前,除了借债融资,长视频玩家别无他路。飞轮转不动,再赚不到钱,投资人也不愿意继续买单。爱奇艺从15年到现在,累计亏损超过了400亿元。去年曾经传出大股东百度想要出售股份的传言,传言虽假,融资难在当下互联网寒冬却十分普遍。大环境变了,也已经不再允许在线视频们任性地撒钱了。25岁的奈飞曾在不到10年的时间借了超过160亿美元来支撑内容投入,期许在债务到期前能够产生足够的收入来偿还债务,并且维持庞大的预算开支。但这个目标直到21年才算真正实现,国外流媒体赛道在这两年涌入了像迪士尼、亚马逊这种不愁钱,也不愁内容的巨头,随着国外经济增速逐渐放缓,奈飞从今年也开始放弃了用户规模增长的指引,把重心放在提高收入和现金流上。到了国内换成了另一个说法,叫做降本增效,开源节流。从2004年乐视成立开始,国内长视频平台也经历将近20年的时间,在第一个十年里,龚宇就曾经预计在2013年实现盈利,当时对于互联网烧钱那一套,很多人还是迷信。去年爱奇艺首次提出运营层面实现盈亏平衡的目标。九年如白驹过隙,行业在面临新的转折,先前富裕的仗既分出了梯队,也筑起了危墙。只有饥饿和困顿才能让从业者更加清醒,重新思考长视频的价值。02《狂飙》会是那部《纸牌屋》吗长视频的另一个结构性变化还在于,竞争核心从内容数量转移到了内容质量,通过优质内容来激发更高的付费意愿。爆款剧集对流量规模的增长是现象级的,一部《狂飙》足以说明一切。这部剧开播以前,爱奇艺的日活用户大概8700万左右,开播之后不到半个月就达到了峰值1.04亿,还成为了央八近九年来收视第一的“剧王”。虹吸效应下,隔壁同期开播的《三体》相形见绌。就在去年7月,爱奇艺和抖音正式达成合作,方向主要围绕长视频内容的二次创作和推广。某种程度上,《狂飙》的成功,抖音也有功劳。更重要的是,长视频这次认清了形势,打不过就合作,咱们约法三章,各取所需就好。18年爱奇艺推出了内容热度值评价标准,要集中火力做S级、A+级别的头部剧集。自制内容的竞争也开始在行业里卷起,除了版权采购和自制两种形式,为了扶持腰部内容的黑马,各家还提出了分账制度,和创作团队分享收益。一时之间,你方唱罢我登场。爱奇艺推出迷雾剧场后,优酷、腾讯视频、芒果TV接连放招,优酷推出了“宠爱剧场”“悬疑剧场”,还和紫金陈达成10部悬疑作品的合作,腾讯推出了“甜蜜仲夏季剧场”,芒果推出了“心动剧场”“季风剧场”。国内长视频玩家把自制内容当成核心竞争力,改变以往盯着流量变现的运营模式,并逐渐开始向奈飞看齐。从18年Q3开始,爱奇艺的付费会员收入开始超过广告业务。奈飞模式,即不断投入生产优质内容来培养用户付费习惯,自13年《纸牌屋》横空出世后,《怪奇物语》、《马男波杰克》等9分神剧帮助奈飞收获订阅人数和收入的快速增长。当单个付费用户平均收入增速超过内容成本增速时,奈飞的经营杠杆就体现出来了。去年四季度,爱奇艺的会员数量同比增长了15.1%,这是近5个季度内首次实现用户增长。爆款剧输出稳定性差是普遍的偏见,而Q4订阅年卡的比重明显增加,这说明消费者在各大平台上来回切换的频率在慢慢减少。这当中最大的变量来自自制内容的接连“涌现”。去年爱奇艺不止一次“押对宝”,虽然剧集数量,内容投入整体收缩,但是平台加大了对头部原创内容的投入,减少扑街内容,简单说就是“集中力量办大事”。自制剧的密集输出对平台各项经营指标的改善十分显著。22年连续剧网络播放的前二十名,爱奇艺有12部作品上榜,只算独播剧的话,也有将近8部,行业里没有竞对。拿月活最接近的腾讯视频来比较,2022年,爱奇艺全网剧集正片有效播放1190亿,会员内容有效播放614亿;腾讯视频正片有效播放972亿,会员内容有效播放485亿,逐渐拉开差距。自爱奇艺推出内容度热度值评价标准以来,一共才7部热度破万的剧集。而在2022 年,在爱奇艺平台上,全年 5 部内容热度值破万的剧集中,有 4 部是爱奇艺原创剧集。这是自14年启动自制剧计划以来取得的一次实质性的突破。公司自己的原创内容占比在18年还只有20%,到了去年已经提高到了50%以上。这些数据对于长视频平台的意义,要大于行业头部企业的首次盈利。自制内容的突破把爱奇艺的会员规模带出了过去两年多的过渡区间,在线视频平台用户规模长期见顶的趋势之下,长视频赛道玩家更加关注整体变现能力的提升,行业竞争格局会越来越集中。03不要爆款,要经典!尽管如此,国内长视频赛道还是很难被看好。现阶段国内赛道的成长空间已经饱和,剧集文化影响力在海外渗透缓慢,相比之下,面向全球市场的奈飞有着更大的增长空间和摊平风险的能力,而国内会员增长只能在快满了的流量池里转化。内容投入方向上,除了市场走向,行业监管政策是比较大的不确定因素。内容供给需要确保不会造成负面消极的社会影响,前两年的选秀综艺引发的倒奶事件,则是一档内容节目商业化开发过度引发的社会乱象。剧集制作也有隐患,艺人塌房也可能带来口碑下滑甚至停播的风险。当增长红利渐失,资本环境不允许大规模烧钱满足内容需求时,长视频赛道玩家对于加快实现盈利达成了一种微妙的共识。但套娃式收费,限制投屏、禁止共享账号等行为一次次在试探人们的接受底线,站在平台的角度增加会员消费无可厚非,不过经常会被人诟病“吃相难看”。奈飞的成功经历说明了,持续优质的内容实践使得爆款率有所提升,付费意愿和用户粘性逐渐提高。很多观众对于国内单个平台的信心还是不足的,原因在于培育爆款跟经典的差异。国内主流平台的内容寿命偏短,从摊销准则上可见一斑。内容资产的摊销一直是主要的内容成本项,控制摊销才有希望盈利。对于奈飞,平均90%以上的内容资产会在四年内进行摊销。而国内,外购得到的授权剧集第一年就要摊掉百分之七八十的成本,只有自制内容跟奈飞采取一样的方式,按照收入比例去摊销成本,也可以提前锁定毛利率。自制内容比重上升,摊销调整的空间也就越大。在平台都一一转向自制内容后,长视频的价值增长关键在于提高内容产出和成本的差距,产出是由数量,成功概率以及平均内容产出的有效乘积。内容行业整顿之前,爆款公式是题材加明星流量,这种外购流量剧的模式基本就是在毁灭平台价值。爆款剧是现象级的,可是当中值得被用户反复观看的凤毛麟角,每年一到寒暑档期,撑起屏幕的还是《西游记》、《甄嬛传》这些数十年前的经典剧作。无论是内容产出,还是寿命,经典远胜于爆款。在短视频从长视频那抢走了娱乐需求的那部分时间,差异化竞争下,只有更好的内容才值得观众花时间去欣赏。奈飞运用技术算法来辅助内容投资,但在创作质感、剧本打磨中体现着盈好莱坞百年老厂的韵味。如何打造经典内容和沉淀IP,这是国内长视频玩家需要学习的。流媒体赛道既需要大量的资本开支,又无法像创新药那般,一经上市未来一段时间内能够有稳定的现金流。光怪陆离的世界里,内容创作随着媒介的进步降低了门槛,文化流行和消逝的时间间隔在缩短。好的内容能火多久,是个玄学。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624636252,"gmtCreate":1677342369776,"gmtModify":1677342370737,"author":{"id":"3459498113361558","authorId":"3459498113361558","name":"Aoeivu","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459498113361558","authorIdStr":"3459498113361558"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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