hi牛牛的个人主页 - 老虎社区

hi牛牛

hi牛牛

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IP属地：浙江

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0勋章

12-09

$极氪(ZK)$ 加油极氪加油

01-29

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 280 280 28” 280

2023-09-13

$苹果(AAPL)$ 确实创新乏力，但对手太弱。

2023-09-12

$苹果(AAPL)$ 滴滴答答滴滴答答断断续续

2023-07-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今天发生了什么？

2023-06-15

$C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$ 1 111111111111111

2022-03-14

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$兄弟们改变人生的时刻到了

2022-03-14

$拼多多(PDD)$兄弟们，改变人生的时刻到了

2021-11-26

刚好说反了

拼多多财报前瞻：Q3营收有望大增，但盈利或难持续？

2021-11-26

$拼多多(PDD)$100见

2021-11-26

真会利用人性的贪婪

网购1小时送达！阿里让西班牙消费者尝鲜“中式创新服务”

2021-11-05

看高你咋不买

阿里巴巴(BABA.US)盘前涨超2% 获巴克莱看高至275美元

2021-08-23

既然你们看多，我就要跑了

阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？

2021-08-16

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$彻底完蛋

2021-05-14

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$270见！

2021-01-27

$PayPal(PYPL)$老美真坏

2021-01-25

$理想汽车(LI)$憋着跌呢。短期大概率跌，长期看不清啊。但这股也不是潜力股，也没啥预期吧。

2021-01-22

$理想汽车(LI)$这是要大跳水么

2021-01-22

$理想汽车(LI)$这是啥节奏，要跳水么

2021-01-21

$京东(JD)$今天要回调么，大神们请回答

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滴滴答答滴滴答答断断续续","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/219099875414040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193963047051344,"gmtCreate":1688381762422,"gmtModify":1688381764763,"author":{"id":"3457153395355303","authorId":"3457153395355303","name":"hi牛牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/01d4e0d87a91bd33c1b334dba6504146","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457153395355303","idStr":"3457153395355303"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>今天发生了什么？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>今天发生了什么？","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 今天发生了什么？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193963047051344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187648622776352,"gmtCreate":1686838722750,"gmtModify":1686838723699,"author":{"id":"3457153395355303","authorId":"3457153395355303","name":"hi牛牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/01d4e0d87a91bd33c1b334dba6504146","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457153395355303","idStr":"3457153395355303"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">$C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>1 111111111111111","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AI\">$C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>1 111111111111111","text":"$C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$ 1 111111111111111","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187648622776352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":635757475,"gmtCreate":1647261336458,"gmtModify":1647261336458,"author":{"id":"3457153395355303","authorId":"3457153395355303","name":"hi牛牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/01d4e0d87a91bd33c1b334dba6504146","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457153395355303","idStr":"3457153395355303"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>兄弟们改变人生的时刻到了","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>兄弟们，改变人生的时刻到了","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$兄弟们，改变人生的时刻到了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635757252","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877644114,"gmtCreate":1637930065190,"gmtModify":1637930065190,"author":{"id":"3457153395355303","authorId":"3457153395355303","name":"hi牛牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/01d4e0d87a91bd33c1b334dba6504146","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457153395355303","idStr":"3457153395355303"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"刚好说反了","listText":"刚好说反了","text":"刚好说反了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877644114","repostId":"1166274928","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166274928","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637638606,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166274928?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 11:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多财报前瞻：Q3营收有望大增，但盈利或难持续？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166274928","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"$拼多多$将于本周五美股盘前公布2021年第三季度财报。市场预期拼多多2021第三季度营业收入265亿元，同比上升87%；预期净利润为-5.18亿元。2021年第二季度，拼多多总营收为230.5亿元，同比增长89%，相比较前两个季度的高增长有所放缓。归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为24.146亿元，而上年同期净亏损人民币8.993亿元，利润率达10.5%。根据中信证券观点，预计拼多多将在2021Q3单季GMV和营收分别同比增长48%、106%，Non-GAAP净利润-4亿元，净利率-1.4%。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>将于本周五（11月26日）美股盘前公布2021年第三季度财报。市场预期拼多多2021第三季度营业收入265亿元，同比上升87%；预期净利润为-5.18亿元。</p>\n<p><b>上季度财报回顾</b></p>\n<p>2021年第二季度，拼多多总营收为230.5亿元，同比增长89%，相比较前两个季度的高增长有所放缓。归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为24.146亿元，而上年同期净亏损人民币8.993亿元，利润率达10.5%。</p>\n<p><b>三季报有哪些方面值得关注？</b></p>\n<p>三季度整体消费需求偏弱，但考虑到拼多多满足性价比、刚性需求为主，用户、商品供给仍处于健康增长期，预计21Q3仍能保持较快的规模增长。而社区团购业务(多多买菜)方面，预计21Q3单季经营利润为-36.3亿元，经营利润率为-15.3%。</p>\n<p><b>一、预计营收有望翻倍，消费疲软不改成长大势</b></p>\n<p>根据中信证券观点，预计拼多多将在2021Q3单季GMV和营收分别同比增长48%、106%，Non-GAAP净利润-4亿元，净利率-1.4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e567a620da75e1899e4090104b7943a5\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">来源：中信证券</p>\n<p>电商行业再入投入期，短期内卷不可避免，但公司品牌供应扩容、多多买菜两大成长路径清晰，底层机制带来的渠道效率优势明显，长期仍是电商赛道最具竞争力的玩家。</p>\n<p>三季度整体消费需求偏弱，实物商品网上零售额同比仅增8.8%（vs21Q2同比+13.3%），规模以上快递业务量同比+23.0%（vs21Q2同比+28.6%）。但考虑到拼多多满足性价比、刚性需求为主，用户、商品供给仍处于健康增长期，预计21Q3仍能保持较快的规模增长，预计单季GMV和营收分别同比增长48%、106%。</p>\n<p><b>二、3P核心业务带动营销，多多买菜稳健增长</b></p>\n<p>分业务来看，首先是拼多多的3P核心业务。根据中信证券预计，拼多多2021年Q3单季GMV有望达6176亿元，同比增长40.9%，广告位量价齐升驱动下预计广告货币化率同比上升0.3%，带动在线营销收入同比增长55.3%至200亿元。中信预计拼多多主站营销费用投放亦将延续Q2的谨慎态势，多多买菜进一步优化UE模型，预计单季Non-GAAP净利润为-4.0亿元。</p>\n<p>同时预计Q3拼多多仍将延续ROI（投资回报率）优先的营销投放原则，预计3P核心主业单季Non-GAAP OP（经营利润）为30亿元，对应OPM（经营利润率）预计将达13.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c8442f7df3c4b1016d975be0d3bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">来源：公司财报</p>\n<p>而多多买菜方面，预计其单季GMV将达237亿元，环比增长25.4%，日均订单量2860万单，环比增长14%。</p>\n<p>目前社区团购行业需求进入平台期，拼多多在巩固行业第一梯队的同时通过客单价&amp;毛利率提升及规模效应释放带动UE模型（单位经济模型）环比改善，中信预计拼多多2021Q3单季OP（经营利润）为-36.3亿元，OPM（经营利润率）为-15.3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36ac742a9a3ff52be6a2ec63381f134\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b></b>来源：中信证券</p>\n<p><b>三、短期盈利面临压力，但具备独特竞争优势</b></p>\n<p>中信证券分析认为，客观来看，电商行业在经历了2019-2020年低线用户的红利外溢后，已经进入新的投入周期，而内容平台的电商化、淘特为代表的低价性价比平台大幅投入加剧了用户口袋份额的竞争，拼多多短期的规模增长和盈利变现均面临一定程度的压力。</p>\n<p>但拼多多的大单品的运营逻辑、重SKU轻品牌的流量分发机制、平权普惠的广告竞价体系，保证了平台可以提供全渠道最具性价比的商品，同时兼顾商家、尤其是中小商家的广告ROI，其渠道效率要大幅优于内容电商/其他性价比平台。</p>\n<p>从行业增量的争夺到存量的再平衡，拼多多均是电商行业竞争力最出众的玩家之一，公司的长期业务发展和平台生态价值兼具高成长和高确定性。</p>\n<p>考虑到拼多多1P业务收缩，中信证券略下调拼多多2021年-2023年营收预测至1168亿/1778亿/1891亿元（原预测1194亿/1858亿/2033亿元），上调Non-GAAP净利润预测至28.3亿/158.7亿/329亿元（原预测24.1亿/153.9亿/325.5亿元）。</p>\n<p><b>中信证券认为，拼多多对应合理市值约2，209亿美元，折合目标价146美元/ADS，较现价有约67%上涨空间，当前公司股价已落入极具性价比的配置区间。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多财报前瞻：Q3营收有望大增，但盈利或难持续？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拼多多财报前瞻：Q3营收有望大增，但盈利或难持续？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-23 11:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>将于本周五（11月26日）美股盘前公布2021年第三季度财报。市场预期拼多多2021第三季度营业收入265亿元，同比上升87%；预期净利润为-5.18亿元。</p>\n<p><b>上季度财报回顾</b></p>\n<p>2021年第二季度，拼多多总营收为230.5亿元，同比增长89%，相比较前两个季度的高增长有所放缓。归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为24.146亿元，而上年同期净亏损人民币8.993亿元，利润率达10.5%。</p>\n<p><b>三季报有哪些方面值得关注？</b></p>\n<p>三季度整体消费需求偏弱，但考虑到拼多多满足性价比、刚性需求为主，用户、商品供给仍处于健康增长期，预计21Q3仍能保持较快的规模增长。而社区团购业务(多多买菜)方面，预计21Q3单季经营利润为-36.3亿元，经营利润率为-15.3%。</p>\n<p><b>一、预计营收有望翻倍，消费疲软不改成长大势</b></p>\n<p>根据中信证券观点，预计拼多多将在2021Q3单季GMV和营收分别同比增长48%、106%，Non-GAAP净利润-4亿元，净利率-1.4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e567a620da75e1899e4090104b7943a5\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">来源：中信证券</p>\n<p>电商行业再入投入期，短期内卷不可避免，但公司品牌供应扩容、多多买菜两大成长路径清晰，底层机制带来的渠道效率优势明显，长期仍是电商赛道最具竞争力的玩家。</p>\n<p>三季度整体消费需求偏弱，实物商品网上零售额同比仅增8.8%（vs21Q2同比+13.3%），规模以上快递业务量同比+23.0%（vs21Q2同比+28.6%）。但考虑到拼多多满足性价比、刚性需求为主，用户、商品供给仍处于健康增长期，预计21Q3仍能保持较快的规模增长，预计单季GMV和营收分别同比增长48%、106%。</p>\n<p><b>二、3P核心业务带动营销，多多买菜稳健增长</b></p>\n<p>分业务来看，首先是拼多多的3P核心业务。根据中信证券预计，拼多多2021年Q3单季GMV有望达6176亿元，同比增长40.9%，广告位量价齐升驱动下预计广告货币化率同比上升0.3%，带动在线营销收入同比增长55.3%至200亿元。中信预计拼多多主站营销费用投放亦将延续Q2的谨慎态势，多多买菜进一步优化UE模型，预计单季Non-GAAP净利润为-4.0亿元。</p>\n<p>同时预计Q3拼多多仍将延续ROI（投资回报率）优先的营销投放原则，预计3P核心主业单季Non-GAAP OP（经营利润）为30亿元，对应OPM（经营利润率）预计将达13.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4c8442f7df3c4b1016d975be0d3bfb\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"577\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">来源：公司财报</p>\n<p>而多多买菜方面，预计其单季GMV将达237亿元，环比增长25.4%，日均订单量2860万单，环比增长14%。</p>\n<p>目前社区团购行业需求进入平台期，拼多多在巩固行业第一梯队的同时通过客单价&amp;毛利率提升及规模效应释放带动UE模型（单位经济模型）环比改善，中信预计拼多多2021Q3单季OP（经营利润）为-36.3亿元，OPM（经营利润率）为-15.3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c36ac742a9a3ff52be6a2ec63381f134\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"579\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b></b>来源：中信证券</p>\n<p><b>三、短期盈利面临压力，但具备独特竞争优势</b></p>\n<p>中信证券分析认为，客观来看，电商行业在经历了2019-2020年低线用户的红利外溢后，已经进入新的投入周期，而内容平台的电商化、淘特为代表的低价性价比平台大幅投入加剧了用户口袋份额的竞争，拼多多短期的规模增长和盈利变现均面临一定程度的压力。</p>\n<p>但拼多多的大单品的运营逻辑、重SKU轻品牌的流量分发机制、平权普惠的广告竞价体系，保证了平台可以提供全渠道最具性价比的商品，同时兼顾商家、尤其是中小商家的广告ROI，其渠道效率要大幅优于内容电商/其他性价比平台。</p>\n<p>从行业增量的争夺到存量的再平衡，拼多多均是电商行业竞争力最出众的玩家之一，公司的长期业务发展和平台生态价值兼具高成长和高确定性。</p>\n<p>考虑到拼多多1P业务收缩，中信证券略下调拼多多2021年-2023年营收预测至1168亿/1778亿/1891亿元（原预测1194亿/1858亿/2033亿元），上调Non-GAAP净利润预测至28.3亿/158.7亿/329亿元（原预测24.1亿/153.9亿/325.5亿元）。</p>\n<p><b>中信证券认为，拼多多对应合理市值约2，209亿美元，折合目标价146美元/ADS，较现价有约67%上涨空间，当前公司股价已落入极具性价比的配置区间。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2db5797ca32628002f32e69d5dea58b","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166274928","content_text":"拼多多将于本周五（11月26日）美股盘前公布2021年第三季度财报。市场预期拼多多2021第三季度营业收入265亿元，同比上升87%；预期净利润为-5.18亿元。\n上季度财报回顾\n2021年第二季度，拼多多总营收为230.5亿元，同比增长89%，相比较前两个季度的高增长有所放缓。归属于拼多多普通股股东的净利润为24.146亿元，而上年同期净亏损人民币8.993亿元，利润率达10.5%。\n三季报有哪些方面值得关注？\n三季度整体消费需求偏弱，但考虑到拼多多满足性价比、刚性需求为主，用户、商品供给仍处于健康增长期，预计21Q3仍能保持较快的规模增长。而社区团购业务(多多买菜)方面，预计21Q3单季经营利润为-36.3亿元，经营利润率为-15.3%。\n一、预计营收有望翻倍，消费疲软不改成长大势\n根据中信证券观点，预计拼多多将在2021Q3单季GMV和营收分别同比增长48%、106%，Non-GAAP净利润-4亿元，净利率-1.4%。\n来源：中信证券\n电商行业再入投入期，短期内卷不可避免，但公司品牌供应扩容、多多买菜两大成长路径清晰，底层机制带来的渠道效率优势明显，长期仍是电商赛道最具竞争力的玩家。\n三季度整体消费需求偏弱，实物商品网上零售额同比仅增8.8%（vs21Q2同比+13.3%），规模以上快递业务量同比+23.0%（vs21Q2同比+28.6%）。但考虑到拼多多满足性价比、刚性需求为主，用户、商品供给仍处于健康增长期，预计21Q3仍能保持较快的规模增长，预计单季GMV和营收分别同比增长48%、106%。\n二、3P核心业务带动营销，多多买菜稳健增长\n分业务来看，首先是拼多多的3P核心业务。根据中信证券预计，拼多多2021年Q3单季GMV有望达6176亿元，同比增长40.9%，广告位量价齐升驱动下预计广告货币化率同比上升0.3%，带动在线营销收入同比增长55.3%至200亿元。中信预计拼多多主站营销费用投放亦将延续Q2的谨慎态势，多多买菜进一步优化UE模型，预计单季Non-GAAP净利润为-4.0亿元。\n同时预计Q3拼多多仍将延续ROI（投资回报率）优先的营销投放原则，预计3P核心主业单季Non-GAAP OP（经营利润）为30亿元，对应OPM（经营利润率）预计将达13.7%。\n来源：公司财报\n而多多买菜方面，预计其单季GMV将达237亿元，环比增长25.4%，日均订单量2860万单，环比增长14%。\n目前社区团购行业需求进入平台期，拼多多在巩固行业第一梯队的同时通过客单价&毛利率提升及规模效应释放带动UE模型（单位经济模型）环比改善，中信预计拼多多2021Q3单季OP（经营利润）为-36.3亿元，OPM（经营利润率）为-15.3%。\n来源：中信证券\n三、短期盈利面临压力，但具备独特竞争优势\n中信证券分析认为，客观来看，电商行业在经历了2019-2020年低线用户的红利外溢后，已经进入新的投入周期，而内容平台的电商化、淘特为代表的低价性价比平台大幅投入加剧了用户口袋份额的竞争，拼多多短期的规模增长和盈利变现均面临一定程度的压力。\n但拼多多的大单品的运营逻辑、重SKU轻品牌的流量分发机制、平权普惠的广告竞价体系，保证了平台可以提供全渠道最具性价比的商品，同时兼顾商家、尤其是中小商家的广告ROI，其渠道效率要大幅优于内容电商/其他性价比平台。\n从行业增量的争夺到存量的再平衡，拼多多均是电商行业竞争力最出众的玩家之一，公司的长期业务发展和平台生态价值兼具高成长和高确定性。\n考虑到拼多多1P业务收缩，中信证券略下调拼多多2021年-2023年营收预测至1168亿/1778亿/1891亿元（原预测1194亿/1858亿/2033亿元），上调Non-GAAP净利润预测至28.3亿/158.7亿/329亿元（原预测24.1亿/153.9亿/325.5亿元）。\n中信证券认为，拼多多对应合理市值约2，209亿美元，折合目标价146美元/ADS，较现价有约67%上涨空间，当前公司股价已落入极具性价比的配置区间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877114085,"gmtCreate":1637897311323,"gmtModify":1637897311323,"author":{"id":"3457153395355303","authorId":"3457153395355303","name":"hi牛牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/01d4e0d87a91bd33c1b334dba6504146","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457153395355303","idStr":"3457153395355303"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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07:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"网购1小时送达！阿里让西班牙消费者尝鲜“中式创新服务”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2186397597","media":"参考消息","summary":"阿里速卖通在与西班牙企业Lola Market结成联盟后，进入了西班牙的食品在线销售领域。阿里速卖通于11月10日推出了超市购物服务，其用户可通过平台在附近的商店购买食品，并在下单后一小时内收到商品，或预定送货。在一小时内交付所购物品的能力使阿里速卖通进入了快速电商业务领域。西班牙成为阿里速卖通在世界范围内提供超市服务的第一个市场。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>参考消息网11月26日报道</strong>据西班牙《国家报》网站报道，隶属于中国电商巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>集团的全球速卖通（Aliexpress）在西班牙的发展又向前迈进了一步。</p><p>阿里速卖通在与西班牙企业Lola Market结成联盟后，进入了西班牙的食品在线销售领域。Lola Market是一个汇集了主要食品分销链的平台，其中包括梅尔卡多纳超市（Mercadona）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NPH.UK\">家乐福</a>（Carrefour）和迪亚天天（Dia）等。</p><p>阿里速卖通于11月10日推出了超市购物服务，其用户可通过平台在附近的商店购买食品，并在下单后一小时内收到商品，或预定送货。该平台将在其应用程序中整合Lola Market的服务，为11个城市的顾客提供线上购物服务，其中包括阿科鲁尼亚、阿利坎特、毕尔巴鄂、巴塞罗那、马德里、马拉加、穆尔西亚、潘普洛纳、塞维利亚、巴伦西亚和萨拉戈萨。未来服务范围还将扩大到马略卡岛、特内里费岛和拉斯帕尔马斯。</p><p>在一小时内交付所购物品的能力使阿里速卖通进入了快速电商业务领域。</p><p><strong>西班牙成为阿里速卖通在世界范围内提供超市服务的第一个市场。前1111个订单将免运费和手续费，且不设最低金额限制。只要通过阿里速卖通应用程序访问，用户可以在Lola Market平台上的任何一家超市购买商品，但消费额如果在40欧元以下，将收取1.99欧元的附加费。</strong></p><p>阿里速卖通在西班牙、意大利和葡萄牙的首席执行官威廉·王（音译）表示：“西班牙是阿里速卖通的一个关键市场，该市场之所以能够脱颖而出，主要是因为我们能够不断推出独特的创新，以改善客户的整体购物体验。”</p><p>Lola Market的创始人路易斯·佩雷斯·德尔巴尔说：“Lola Market与阿里速卖通的整合使西班牙成为第一个提供这种服务的国家。我们对这一发展颇感欣慰，同时希望能够为更多顾客提供这种便利的服务，并继续改变民众的购物方式。”（编译/刘丽菲）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>网购1小时送达！阿里让西班牙消费者尝鲜“中式创新服务”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n网购1小时送达！阿里让西班牙消费者尝鲜“中式创新服务”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-26 07:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202111260721257a0f4996&s=b><strong>参考消息</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>参考消息网11月26日报道据西班牙《国家报》网站报道，隶属于中国电商巨头阿里巴巴集团的全球速卖通（Aliexpress）在西班牙的发展又向前迈进了一步。阿里速卖通在与西班牙企业Lola Market结成联盟后，进入了西班牙的食品在线销售领域。Lola Market是一个汇集了主要食品分销链的平台，其中包括梅尔卡多纳超市（Mercadona）、家乐福（Carrefour）和迪亚天天（Dia）等。阿里...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202111260721257a0f4996&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202111260721257a0f4996&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2186397597","content_text":"参考消息网11月26日报道据西班牙《国家报》网站报道，隶属于中国电商巨头阿里巴巴集团的全球速卖通（Aliexpress）在西班牙的发展又向前迈进了一步。阿里速卖通在与西班牙企业Lola Market结成联盟后，进入了西班牙的食品在线销售领域。Lola Market是一个汇集了主要食品分销链的平台，其中包括梅尔卡多纳超市（Mercadona）、家乐福（Carrefour）和迪亚天天（Dia）等。阿里速卖通于11月10日推出了超市购物服务，其用户可通过平台在附近的商店购买食品，并在下单后一小时内收到商品，或预定送货。该平台将在其应用程序中整合Lola Market的服务，为11个城市的顾客提供线上购物服务，其中包括阿科鲁尼亚、阿利坎特、毕尔巴鄂、巴塞罗那、马德里、马拉加、穆尔西亚、潘普洛纳、塞维利亚、巴伦西亚和萨拉戈萨。未来服务范围还将扩大到马略卡岛、特内里费岛和拉斯帕尔马斯。在一小时内交付所购物品的能力使阿里速卖通进入了快速电商业务领域。西班牙成为阿里速卖通在世界范围内提供超市服务的第一个市场。前1111个订单将免运费和手续费，且不设最低金额限制。只要通过阿里速卖通应用程序访问，用户可以在Lola Market平台上的任何一家超市购买商品，但消费额如果在40欧元以下，将收取1.99欧元的附加费。阿里速卖通在西班牙、意大利和葡萄牙的首席执行官威廉·王（音译）表示：“西班牙是阿里速卖通的一个关键市场，该市场之所以能够脱颖而出，主要是因为我们能够不断推出独特的创新，以改善客户的整体购物体验。”Lola Market的创始人路易斯·佩雷斯·德尔巴尔说：“Lola Market与阿里速卖通的整合使西班牙成为第一个提供这种服务的国家。我们对这一发展颇感欣慰，同时希望能够为更多顾客提供这种便利的服务，并继续改变民众的购物方式。”（编译/刘丽菲）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846799065,"gmtCreate":1636111255269,"gmtModify":1636111255269,"author":{"id":"3457153395355303","authorId":"3457153395355303","name":"hi牛牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/01d4e0d87a91bd33c1b334dba6504146","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457153395355303","idStr":"3457153395355303"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看高你咋不买","listText":"看高你咋不买","text":"看高你咋不买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846799065","repostId":"2180004767","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2180004767","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636014967,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2180004767?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 16:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"阿里巴巴(BABA.US)盘前涨超2% 获巴克莱看高至275美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180004767","media":"格隆汇","summary":"格隆汇11月4日丨阿里巴巴(BABA.US)盘前涨2.6%报170.73美元，今日港股市场阿里巴巴(9988.HK)收涨3.11%报165.6港元，折算成美股市场价格为170.23美元/ADS。巴克莱最新报告称，阿里巴巴目前价格远低于其内在价值，给予其目标价275美元，较目前有逾60%的潜在升幅。","content":"<html><body><p>格隆汇11月4日丨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>(BABA.US)盘前涨2.6%报170.73美元，今日港股市场阿里巴巴(9988.HK)收涨3.11%报165.6港元，折算成美股市场价格为170.23美元/ADS。巴克莱最新报告称，阿里巴巴目前价格远低于其内在价值，给予其目标价275美元，较目前有逾60%的潜在升幅。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里巴巴(BABA.US)盘前涨超2% 获巴克莱看高至275美元</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38ce24331e38c2fd573aeb0067f50146","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/news/detail.html?id=634109","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2180004767","content_text":"格隆汇11月4日丨阿里巴巴(BABA.US)盘前涨2.6%报170.73美元，今日港股市场阿里巴巴(9988.HK)收涨3.11%报165.6港元，折算成美股市场价格为170.23美元/ADS。巴克莱最新报告称，阿里巴巴目前价格远低于其内在价值，给予其目标价275美元，较目前有逾60%的潜在升幅。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":835133059,"gmtCreate":1629691936671,"gmtModify":1629691936671,"author":{"id":"3457153395355303","authorId":"3457153395355303","name":"hi牛牛","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/01d4e0d87a91bd33c1b334dba6504146","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3457153395355303","idStr":"3457153395355303"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"既然你们看多，我就要跑了","listText":"既然你们看多，我就要跑了","text":"既然你们看多，我就要跑了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835133059","repostId":"2161474406","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2161474406","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629684482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2161474406?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 10:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2161474406","media":"证券市场红周刊","summary":"受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构","content":"<p>受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。</p>\n<p><b>二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、施罗德、摩根等机构增持</b></p>\n<p>截至美东时间8月19日收盘（下同），美股机构披露的持仓数据显示，二季度，机构对阿里的调仓整体偏“乐观”。</p>\n<p>如13F最新披露数据显示，截至二季度末，共有1757家机构持仓阿里，与第一季度1749家的持仓数量基本持平。进一步来看，在二季度1757家持仓阿里机构中，给予增持、持仓未变、新进的机构家数分别为703、245、248，合计为1196家，占二季度持仓阿里机构比例为68%。与之相对，减持、清仓的机构分别为561、240家。</p>\n<p>受股价重挫影响，二季度末，机构持仓阿里的总市值为1495亿美元，该持仓市值水平已经降至近五个季度最低水平。此外，机构的持仓占比也在不断下降，最新的持股比例为24.34%。</p>\n<p>纵向对比来看，截至2020-6-30，机构持仓阿里占比为44.11%，持仓市值为2552亿美元；截至2020-09-30，机构持仓阿里占比和市值分别为40.73%与3212亿美元；截至2020-12-31，持股占比和市值分别为36.19%与2283亿美元；截至2021-3-30则分别为32.55%与2000亿美元。</p>\n<p>图1 机构近五个季度持仓阿里</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164254152v1546m6vw5iwjn6\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>从增持名单来看，高盛（GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC）目前持仓阿里市值最高，达69亿美元，二季度，高盛增仓阿里23.86%，目前，为高盛二季度第五大重仓股。（注：高盛二季度总持仓市值为4463亿美元）</p>\n<p>值得一提的是，高盛对阿里的增持并非短期动作，而是“长情行为”。据Wind数据显示，曾在2014年3季度，高盛即建仓阿里，当时持仓仅23,032.2万美元，截至今年2季度末，已连续持仓达25个季度，且在其间不断增仓。</p>\n<p>图2 高盛持仓阿里巴巴</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164304962v1549gnmmmnlcik\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>另外，二季度对阿里进行增持且持仓市值居前的公司还包括SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP（施罗德投资管理集团）、MORGAN STANLEY（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>）、PRIMECAP管理公司等。</p>\n<p>表1 二季度主要增仓阿里机构（部分）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164305849v154jrxrz96v7ym\" tg-width=\"588\" tg-height=\"884\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>与之相对，二季度，共有561家机构对阿里进行了减仓。统计显示，减仓幅度＜20%的公司332家，减仓幅度在20%~50%的公司有136家。减仓幅度＞50%的机构有93家，其中有39家机构减仓超过80%，如BLACKROCK INC.（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>）减仓达88.28 %，持仓市值由今年一季度末的190.1亿美元降至22.3亿美元。此外，STATE STREET CORP（美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">道富银行</a>）减仓幅度同样高达86.23 %；</p>\n<p>表2 二季度主要减仓阿里机构（部分）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164312662v154fvtq2a3wmt8\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p><b>股价“腰斩”市值缩水超4000亿美元</b></p>\n<p>“监管”充分反映估值已具“吸引力</p>\n<p>截至美东时间8月19日收盘，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)当日重挫6.85%，刷新年内新低，今年以来，阿里累计跌幅已经达到了31%。而自去年10月27日高点至今，累计跌幅已近50%，几近“腰斩”。</p>\n<p>图3 阿里股价表现</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164323739v154cu4vh1o2d6g\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>伴随股价下跌，阿里市值大幅缩水。目前来看，阿里最新市值为约4364亿美元，相较于年初6243亿美元缩水1879亿美元，相较于去年10月27日高点8507亿美元市值缩水4143亿美元。</p>\n<p>图4 阿里市值变化（亿美元）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164325203v154avjz8v2h2jh\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"310\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>进一步来看，阿里估值水平也出现进一步下降。今年以来，阿里估值多保持在20倍~30倍之间，最新估值仅在20倍左右。</p>\n<p>图5 阿里估值水平变化</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210822164331028v15445zmhdffl5o\" tg-width=\"814\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p><b>阿里长线投资价值逐步凸显</b></p>\n<p><b>但不建议贸然“抄底”</b></p>\n<p>与二季度多数投资机构对阿里持有“积极态度”相通，券商也同样给予阿里“乐观预判”。</p>\n<p>如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>，据其8月上旬发布的研究报告指出，阿里巴巴发布FY2022Q1业绩，核心商业稳健增长，其认为，股价经过持续调整，已反映公司新业务投入对业绩增长影响的悲观预期，及监管风险带来的估值偏好下降。而伴随着阿里巴巴新业务的不断推进，公司的技术和服务能力呈现明显提升态势，公司依然具有较好的相对竞争优势，维持对公司中长期发展的乐观判断。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">招商证券</a>(香港) 认为，由于监管机构禁止通过价格倾销来促销，竞争环境变得更加公平，而阿里的优势如充足的现金储备，以及强大的供应链能力（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06808\">高鑫零售</a>在生鲜、快消品类的供给）则更能被凸显。此外，阿里承诺将着眼于长期价值，并将加大在供应链、履约能力和基础设施上的投入。</p>\n<p>有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。如雪球大V@陈达美股投资表示，阿里的估值创新低，“但不会贸然抄底...”。</p>\n<p>而从《红周刊》采访的多位投资人反馈来看，对于阿里的长期投资价值 ，“看多”的占绝大多数，但短期而言，风险偏好降低带来的波动或仍将持续。</p>\n<p>这也可能就会导致，虽然投资需要“做时间的朋友”是个人尽皆知的良言，但实操中真正能做到的可能仍是少数。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n阿里被近70%外资机构“看多”，抄底机会来了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 10:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b><strong>证券市场红周刊</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。\n二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里\n高盛、施罗德、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202108221643477c31a0c8&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2161474406","content_text":"受监管阴影等因素影响的互联网电商巨头——阿里巴巴，股价不断创下年内新低，市值大幅缩水。但据阿里的美股二季度机构持仓来看，在1757家持仓机构中，约7成机构给予了阿里“赞成票”，对于阿里的未来预期，机构的态度远未“如此悲观。” 在机构来看，受“监管导致的偏好下降”已获充分反映，另有观点认为，阿里“目前估值已经颇具吸引力”，但“抄底时机”还为时尚早。\n二季度外资机构近7成“看多”阿里\n高盛、施罗德、摩根等机构增持\n截至美东时间8月19日收盘（下同），美股机构披露的持仓数据显示，二季度，机构对阿里的调仓整体偏“乐观”。\n如13F最新披露数据显示，截至二季度末，共有1757家机构持仓阿里，与第一季度1749家的持仓数量基本持平。进一步来看，在二季度1757家持仓阿里机构中，给予增持、持仓未变、新进的机构家数分别为703、245、248，合计为1196家，占二季度持仓阿里机构比例为68%。与之相对，减持、清仓的机构分别为561、240家。\n受股价重挫影响，二季度末，机构持仓阿里的总市值为1495亿美元，该持仓市值水平已经降至近五个季度最低水平。此外，机构的持仓占比也在不断下降，最新的持股比例为24.34%。\n纵向对比来看，截至2020-6-30，机构持仓阿里占比为44.11%，持仓市值为2552亿美元；截至2020-09-30，机构持仓阿里占比和市值分别为40.73%与3212亿美元；截至2020-12-31，持股占比和市值分别为36.19%与2283亿美元；截至2021-3-30则分别为32.55%与2000亿美元。\n图1 机构近五个季度持仓阿里\n\n数据来源：Wind\n从增持名单来看，高盛（GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC）目前持仓阿里市值最高，达69亿美元，二季度，高盛增仓阿里23.86%，目前，为高盛二季度第五大重仓股。（注：高盛二季度总持仓市值为4463亿美元）\n值得一提的是，高盛对阿里的增持并非短期动作，而是“长情行为”。据Wind数据显示，曾在2014年3季度，高盛即建仓阿里，当时持仓仅23,032.2万美元，截至今年2季度末，已连续持仓达25个季度，且在其间不断增仓。\n图2 高盛持仓阿里巴巴\n\n数据来源：Wind\n另外，二季度对阿里进行增持且持仓市值居前的公司还包括SCHRODER INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP（施罗德投资管理集团）、MORGAN STANLEY（摩根士丹利）、PRIMECAP管理公司等。\n表1 二季度主要增仓阿里机构（部分）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n与之相对，二季度，共有561家机构对阿里进行了减仓。统计显示，减仓幅度＜20%的公司332家，减仓幅度在20%~50%的公司有136家。减仓幅度＞50%的机构有93家，其中有39家机构减仓超过80%，如BLACKROCK INC.（贝莱德）减仓达88.28 %，持仓市值由今年一季度末的190.1亿美元降至22.3亿美元。此外，STATE STREET CORP（美国道富银行）减仓幅度同样高达86.23 %；\n表2 二季度主要减仓阿里机构（部分）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n股价“腰斩”市值缩水超4000亿美元\n“监管”充分反映估值已具“吸引力\n截至美东时间8月19日收盘，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)当日重挫6.85%，刷新年内新低，今年以来，阿里累计跌幅已经达到了31%。而自去年10月27日高点至今，累计跌幅已近50%，几近“腰斩”。\n图3 阿里股价表现\n\n数据来源：Wind\n伴随股价下跌，阿里市值大幅缩水。目前来看，阿里最新市值为约4364亿美元，相较于年初6243亿美元缩水1879亿美元，相较于去年10月27日高点8507亿美元市值缩水4143亿美元。\n图4 阿里市值变化（亿美元）\n\n数据来源：Wind\n进一步来看，阿里估值水平也出现进一步下降。今年以来，阿里估值多保持在20倍~30倍之间，最新估值仅在20倍左右。\n图5 阿里估值水平变化\n\n数据来源：Wind\n阿里长线投资价值逐步凸显\n但不建议贸然“抄底”\n与二季度多数投资机构对阿里持有“积极态度”相通，券商也同样给予阿里“乐观预判”。\n如中信证券，据其8月上旬发布的研究报告指出，阿里巴巴发布FY2022Q1业绩，核心商业稳健增长，其认为，股价经过持续调整，已反映公司新业务投入对业绩增长影响的悲观预期，及监管风险带来的估值偏好下降。而伴随着阿里巴巴新业务的不断推进，公司的技术和服务能力呈现明显提升态势，公司依然具有较好的相对竞争优势，维持对公司中长期发展的乐观判断。\n招商证券(香港) 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