SULISA的个人主页 - 老虎社区

SULISA

SULISA

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0勋章

2017-04-27

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$ 卖出订单提交不了，怎回事？

2019-04-25

$MSFT 20190621 130.0 CALL(MSFT)$终于熬出头了，我软真硬！

2020-10-12

$AMD 20201016 95.0 CALL(AMD)$奉劝大家不要赌期权，就算看好一支股票而买的期权也不要赌短期涨跌，这次是我在$AMD(AMD)$上亏得最多的一次，两个交易日把我全年近20%的利润吐出来了[喷血] [喷血] [喷血] [喷血]

2020-12-02

$AMD 20210115 75.0 CALL(AMD)$舒服，再一次感谢苏妈！考虑要行权还是卖掉好？

2017-05-02

我赌今天跌幅不超20%

$Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)$ 不信看看

我赌今天跌幅不超20%

2018-09-11

$AMD(AMD)$如今晚可以上31我会安计划再减仓

2020-11-13

$蔚来(NIO)$昨天清期权下车赚个小钱，等便宜再入大钱你们继续赚。

2018-09-05

$AMD(AMD)$揭秘AMD暴涨之谜🤔🤔🤔………………………………………………………… 只因我上了AMD😋😋😋

2020-07-23

$AMD(AMD)$11块多建仓，中途加仓减仓，现在剩下底仓拿着，大部分出来的资金都进call上，年底应该可以冲90…AMD YES!

2017-06-12

我觉得京东要回调补缺口了

$京东(JD)$ 委托了35.92的单子，纯属傻猜！😁😁

我觉得京东要回调补缺口了

2020-09-01

$AMD 20210115 75.0 CALL(AMD)$又开始表演，AMD,YES!

2017-06-30

血的教训

$MU 20170721 33.0 CALL(MU)$ 被绞杀了

2021-02-24

$AMD(AMD)$请教大神们一个问题，我手上有价内的pull单是卖出方向，如果到期我应该是买入正股，那么我现在可以提前行权入正股吗？

2019-11-14

$AMD(AMD)$ 怎么我双11入货了你就涨了[捂脸] [捂脸]

2017-09-16

看跌！！

$美光科技(MU)$ 哪位大神可以解答这个期权到期会自动行权吗？

2018-01-28

估计按摩店要跌！

$AMD 20180420 11.0 PUT(AMD)$ 估计这次华尔街都不看好amd的财报，就算好于预期都会被无视。

估计按摩店要跌！

2020-07-31

$理想汽车(LI)$清仓理想，凑齐弹药转战未来

2018-09-05

$AMD(AMD)$曾经的浮盈，昨晚忘记撤单今日被成交了，有点不开心！本来想上20倍😭😭😭

2018-08-27

$AMD(AMD)$按既定目标20以上减仓，现在保留1/3仓位小量call，同时买小小pull做对冲！

2017-07-19

高位先走走，低位再来

$JD 20170915 43.0 CALL(JD)$ 首次盈利超100%

高位先走走，低位再来

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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[喷血]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b021be17ed307150dcc8d81746f112db","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309914490","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3463446769405484","authorId":"3463446769405484","name":"赌搏","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b84db6b69ddd9a2009dd889301c66ea5","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3463446769405484","authorIdStr":"3463446769405484"},"content":"你的理论是错误的。但是：珍爱生命远离按摩店。 $AMD(AMD)$ 非常的无、耻下作","text":"你的理论是错误的。但是：珍爱生命远离按摩店。 $AMD(AMD)$ 非常的无、耻下作","html":"你的理论是错误的。但是：珍爱生命远离按摩店。 $AMD(AMD)$ 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CALL(AMD)$又开始表演，AMD,YES!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433dec726f06d18cddcc262f890dcdd3","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/971860752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":945200710,"gmtCreate":1596556127730,"gmtModify":1704212704425,"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451302568374293","authorIdStr":"3451302568374293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD 20210115 90.0 CALL(AMD)$</a>无厘头又破新高，稳妥出一点再看！AMD YES","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD 20210115 90.0 CALL(AMD)$</a>无厘头又破新高，稳妥出一点再看！AMD YES","text":"$AMD 20210115 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>清仓理想，凑齐弹药转战未来","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$清仓理想，凑齐弹药转战未来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942730960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942211980,"gmtCreate":1596127426740,"gmtModify":1704211428428,"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451302568374293","authorIdStr":"3451302568374293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD 20210115 90.0 CALL(AMD)$</a>高位减仓静待回撤机会，今晚怕4大雷神财报会拖累大盘，还是安心睡觉💤","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD 20210115 90.0 CALL(AMD)$</a>高位减仓静待回撤机会，今晚怕4大雷神财报会拖累大盘，还是安心睡觉💤","text":"$AMD 20210115 90.0 CALL(AMD)$高位减仓静待回撤机会，今晚怕4大雷神财报会拖累大盘，还是安心睡觉💤","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1751eb100e80f909ae0012c1fc015369","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942211980","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946376138,"gmtCreate":1595602473524,"gmtModify":1704209650951,"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451302568374293","authorIdStr":"3451302568374293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$INTC 20210115 60.0 CALL(INTC)$</a>牙膏跌得这么惨，小小支持一下 amd yes","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$INTC 20210115 60.0 CALL(INTC)$</a>牙膏跌得这么惨，小小支持一下 amd yes","text":"$INTC 20210115 60.0 CALL(INTC)$牙膏跌得这么惨，小小支持一下 amd yes","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b10756325c2267d5b8d6896e15e5ba","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946376138","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946327970,"gmtCreate":1595599385290,"gmtModify":1704209618904,"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451302568374293","authorIdStr":"3451302568374293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD 20210115 75.0 CALL(AMD)$</a>高位减一点，回补再接，amd yes","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD 20210115 75.0 CALL(AMD)$</a>高位减一点，回补再接，amd yes","text":"$AMD 20210115 75.0 CALL(AMD)$高位减一点，回补再接，amd yes","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8594aaa3132f6b473c8c17078dd36924","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946327970","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548340110742992","authorId":"3548340110742992","name":"苏苏丫丫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f952f2ca9efaeb42afae912ebd698a86","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548340110742992","authorIdStr":"3548340110742992"},"content":"怎么涨这么多，","text":"怎么涨这么多，","html":"怎么涨这么多，"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946007139,"gmtCreate":1595513195821,"gmtModify":1704209275370,"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451302568374293","authorIdStr":"3451302568374293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>11块多建仓，中途加仓减仓，现在剩下底仓拿着，大部分出来的资金都进call上，年底应该可以冲90…AMD YES!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a>11块多建仓，中途加仓减仓，现在剩下底仓拿着，大部分出来的资金都进call上，年底应该可以冲90…AMD YES!","text":"$AMD(AMD)$11块多建仓，中途加仓减仓，现在剩下底仓拿着，大部分出来的资金都进call上，年底应该可以冲90…AMD YES!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/770bbc86979dfa2edb7f46e1411ae0e6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946007139","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":980176125,"gmtCreate":1582277818467,"gmtModify":1704346290925,"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451302568374293","authorIdStr":"3451302568374293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文","listText":"好文","text":"好文","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/980176125","repostId":"1106024265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106024265","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"有料，有趣，有深度。由董秘、CFO、投行和基金经理等一线从业人员组建的专业市值管理公众号，专注于解读中国资本市场最典型的并购重组、最血腥的股权战争和最脑洞大开的财务舞弊。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"市值风云","id":"43","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9d4dad6ffc401f8c85b4d6b0210c3a"},"pubTimestamp":1582251480,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106024265?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-21 10:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果二次复兴","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106024265","media":"市值风云","summary":"苹果$(AAPL)$是各位老铁们再熟悉不过的一家公司。2018年8月，风云君曾经写过一篇讲述当时热门的FAANG五大科技公司的长文，《万字重磅 | 深度解剖美股五大花旦：Apple 、Facebook","content":"<p><span>苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>是各位老铁们再熟悉不过的一家公司。</span></p><p><span>2018年8月，风云君曾经写过一篇讲述当时热门的FAANG五大科技公司的长文，《万字重磅 | 深度解剖美股五大花旦：Apple 、Facebook、Google 、Amazon、Netflix》。</span></p><p><span>当时，苹果已经从2016年收入下滑的困境中走出来。风云君在文章中对苹果从成长性、盈利性、供应链管理效率多个方面进行了分析，结论是苹果增长趋缓、盈利指标仍维持在高位、同时运营效率非常优秀。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b21c419b84ee658dd7f9093ee33eca62\" /></p><p><span>又过了一年，风云君决定回来看看这位老朋友。</span></p><p><span>不过这次要换个角度，先从大家最熟悉的iPhone说起。</span></p><p><span><b>一、iPhone真正涨价其实是这几年的事</b></span></p><p><span>风云君整理了历代iPhone在美国地区的首发不含税价格（注：均为最低存储配置），并将其分为基本款、高配款和尊享款。</span></p><p><span>iPhone 5c和iPhone SE由于没有后继产品，这里列入其他。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65bb1a3b8c9df0bebb6f71f70b6b4b10\" /></p><p><span>（来源：网络数据，市值风云整理）</span></p><p><span>iPhone的发展可以分为三个阶段：</span></p><p><span>单iPhone时代：从2007年的初代iPhone到2013年的iPhone 5s；</span></p><p><span>双iPhone时代：从2014年的iPhone 6、iPhone 6 Plus到2016年的iPhone 7、iPhone 7 Plus；</span></p><p><span>三iPhone时代：从2017年的iPhone 8、iPhone8 Plus、iPhone X到2019年的iPhone 11、iPhone 11 Pro、iPhone 11 Pro Max。</span></p><p><span>可以清楚得看到，</span><span><b>iPhone售价的全面提高是从2017年的“三iPhone时代”开始的。</b></span></p><p><span>在这之前的2011-2016年，基本款的iPhone价格一直维持在649美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5905b1485851660f93614ced26d1ab13\" /></p><p><span>（来源：网络数据；市值风云整理）</span></p><p><span>而2017年，基本款的iPhone 8发售价达到699美元，比上代的iPhone 7贵了50美元；高配款的iPhone 8 Plus比iPhone 7 Plus贵了30美元，达到799美元；新推出的iPhone X售价更是高达999美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee458f60bcb4d502a332493eaec1f108\" /></p><p><span>（2017年发售的iPhone 8和iPhone 8 Plus）</span></p><p><span>售价变高的同时，成本也变高了。</span></p><p><span>根据IHS Markit（INFO.O）的数据，iPhone X的成本达到370.25美元，远高于此前iPhone 7、iPhone 7 Plus的219.80、270.88美元；iPhone X的物料成本占售价的比例为37.1%，也高于iPhone 7、iPhone 7 Plus的33.9%、35.2%。</span></p><p><b><span>高配款iPhone从2014年一经推出，物料成本占比就不断上升；基本款则至少是从iPhone 7发售的2016年，物料成本占比开始明显上升的。</span></b></p><p><span>iPhone XS Max则是近年来成本最高的一款机型，合计物料成本高达390美元，占售价的比重达到35.5%。</span></p><p><span>2019年最新款iPhone的物料成本数据暂时没有找到。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5cac1c0d79f5a637590515fb143e3ca\" /></p><p><span>（来源：IHS Markit）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2f9b19006057b7576bdb7ba5a388b5\" /></p><p><span>（来源：IHS Markit，市值风云整理）</span></p><p><span><b>二、iPhone的“涨价魔咒”</b></span></p><p><span>下面我们来看看iPhone的销售数据。</span></p><p><span>每个财年的一季度（注：苹果的财年从上一年10月初至当年9月底）是苹果9月新品发布会之后的首个季度。再加上圣诞假期的影响，当季的销售额占全年很大比例，比如说近两年平均要占到全年销售额的36.8%。</span></p><p><span>“三iPhone时代”开启的2017年，对应的是2018财年一季度（注：开始于2017年10月的季度）。</span></p><p><b><span>可以看到，从这时开始到2018财年四季度，iPhone销售额同比增速不断加快，但销量几乎没有增长，反映出了iPhone平均售价的提高。</span></b></p><p><b><span>紧接着2019财年一季度，苹果进一步提高三款新发售iPhone的售价，销量和销售额却分别下滑11.5%和14.9%，并在二季度进一步下滑。</span></b></p><p><span>类似的情况在3年前也发生过一次。</span></p><p><span>2015财年，苹果进入了“双iPhone时代”，iPhone 6相比5s虽然没涨价，新的iPhone 6 Plus却要贵100美元，从而拉高了平均售价。</span></p><p><span>这就导致当时的销售额增速也要明显高于销量增速。</span></p><p><span>而且接下来的2016财年也是销售额和销量双双下滑。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c437c789b601aa2ec4ec843ac07b36\" /></p><p><span>（注：2019财年起苹果不再公布销量，这里取的是IDC数据）</span></p><p><b><span>这难道就是iPhone的“涨价魔咒“？</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6fbd8bc9be7ff1d3da6620c010091d3\" /></p><p><span>（起售价接近1000美元的iPhone X）</span></p><p><span><b>三、详细盘点这一次探底的过程</b></span></p><p><span>回到2019财年的这次业绩下滑。</span></p><p><span>早在一季报发布之前的1月2日，苹果就下调了当季的指引，给投资者打了一剂预防针。其中收入指引由原来的890亿-930亿美元降至840亿美元，比上年同期下滑4.9%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e471a3b4ed20c448d796f752a266abd\" /></p><p><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p><p><span>库克解释说这是由于新iPhone的销量低于预期，特别是在中国的销量。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9863acda4ebc387a0bee6d8b32a9c021\" /></p><p><b><span>第二天的1月3日，苹果股价大跌了10.21%。</span></b></p><p><span>当时风云君都觉得苹果的时代可能要过去了。此后，苹果手机降价的新闻不绝于耳。</span></p><p><span>先是1月份电商平台降价幅度超过1000元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4ff67c52b79d5dd5948e359138265a\" /></p><p><span>（来源：新京报）</span></p><p><span>后来的2月和3月又有两轮降价，部分电商平台降价幅度甚至超过2000元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4017a540fcdc462715b2de9459e2e95b\" /></p><p><span>（来源：新京报）</span></p><p><span>这一段时间，苹果的股价已经恢复上涨趋势。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d7447bf82df7e5c68316741efd8af\" /></p><p><span>紧接着2019年5月，苹果发布第二财季业绩，老铁们可以翻看风云君当时翻译的《苹果二季报电话会议实录》。</span></p><p><span>这个季度，苹果收入又同比下滑了5.1%，库克在电话会议中多次提到降价和以旧换新。</span></p><p><span>这时候也差不多是苹果业绩的拐点。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792deeab56062d72bd8f7e7f61a900ce\" /></p><p><span>这之后，出人意料的事情发生了！</span></p><p><span>9月份，苹果发布最新的iPhone 11系列。浴霸镜头、没有5G又引发了大家的吐槽，然而电商平台的预售销量却翻了四倍！</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129fa490d968c67a6626b2fd18e8250d\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e63dd8394849d51c570f7b7f50cda965\" /></p><p><span>（来源：第一财经）</span></p><p><span>就在我们以为这只是一时现象的时候，苹果公布了2020财年一季报：营收达到创纪录的918.19亿美元，同比增长8.9%，净利润达到222.36亿美元，同比增长11.4%。</span></p><p><span>大象又开始跳舞了，风云君感叹那个曾经的苹果又回来了。</span></p><p><span><b>四、两次增长危机，复苏各有不同</b></span></p><p><span>2019财年就只是三年前的一次重演吗？</span></p><p><span>各位不妨坐上风云君的时空穿梭机回去看看。</span></p><p><span>2014财年一季度至今，苹果的季度收入一共经历了2次负增长：</span></p><p><span>第一次是2016财年的二季度到四季度，季度同比增速分别为-12.8%、-14.6%、-9.0%；</span></p><p><span>第二次是2019财年一季度至二季度，季度同比增速分别为-4.5%、-5.1%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca026c9e8a4fc5d82b505326221a1d2\" /></p><p><span>同时期，iPhone季度销售额占苹果总收入的比例始终在60%上下。</span></p><p><span><b>而且，iPhone季度销售额同比增速为正的时候，苹果收入同比增速也为正，反之亦然。</b></span></p><p><b><span>这体现了iPhone对苹果整体业绩的拉动作用。</span></b></p><p><span>唯一的一次例外出现在2019财年三季度和四季度。这两个财季iPhone销售额同比增速分别为-11.8%、-9.2%，而苹果的收入增速分别为1.0%、1.8%。</span></p><p><span>这段时期对业绩起到拉动作用的不是iPhone，那会是什么呢？</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec30ff2465afb52b31e70ebc4e5941c7\" /></p><p><span>翻出近两个财年的分部收入季度增速，可以看出，2019财年三季度和四季度均保持正增长的有三项业务：可穿戴、家庭和配件收入，服务收入，以及Mac。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c59f517b3b26612844ae1203609015d\" /></p><p><span>再结合2019财年三季度收入占比来看，可穿戴、家庭和配件收入占比10.3%，增速48%；服务收入占比21.3%，增速12.6%；Mac占比10.8%，增速10.7%。</span></p><p><span><b>拉动2019财年三季度增长的首先是可穿戴、家庭和配件收入，其次就是服务收入。</b></span><span>风云君在后面还会再提到这两项业务。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5ac1b161213cb31f1b1685701d9d40\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a3fe2c5ea67351de22e15e699d1ba13\" /></p><p><span>（苹果的可穿戴设备之一AirPods Pro）</span></p><p><b><span>而三年前的2016财年，同样是连续的负增长，但最终走出低谷靠的是iPhone。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19ebe0d54a237e214285eaf3e878dac\" /></p><p><span>比如说2017财年一季度，苹果的收入增速刚恢复到正数。当季iPhone收入占比69.4%，同比增长5.3%，对增长的贡献最大。其次的贡献来自服务收入和Mac，其他业务仍处于负增长。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd4aeaec19ce66a6a54689ec3243f583\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dad179ef64838e356032aa495c2318b\" /></p><p><span>（2016年发售的iPhone 7 Plus）</span></p><p><b><span>iPhone对于苹果重要性的下降，就是2019年的苹果与三年前不同的地方。</span></b></p><p><span>而这背后，则是毛利率的压力。</span></p><p><span><b>五、由硬件转向服务，背后是毛利率下降的压力</b></span></p><p><span>我们先上一张图。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f57cbc539c950d4df9508a9a8b9ccc49\" /></p><p><span>苹果的毛利率在2012和2015财年分别达到两次高点：</span></p><p><span>其中，2012财年的毛利率为43.9%，与iPhone销售额占比提高，以及大宗商品价格波动导致的成本降低有关；</span></p><p><span>2015财年的毛利率达到40.1%，主要与2014年发布的iPhone 6 Plus物料成本占比更低有关。</span></p><p><span>可见iPhone对于苹果的重要性。</span></p><p><span>但是！但是！苹果在iPhone上的“挤牙膏式”创新越来越难以拉高毛利率了。</span></p><p><b><span>这背后的原因表面上是iPhone物料成本占比的提高，更深层次的原因则是智能手机整体创新乏力，市场竞争加剧。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8e5b97dfa48150b72af9dd29d5937a\" /></p><p><span>（来源：2012财年年报）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c9ca46294ba1fb4e5a36ef6e482430d\" /></p><p><span>（来源：2015财年年报）</span></p><p><span>这怎么办呢？当然是转型毛利更高的服务啊~</span></p><p><span>苹果的服务收入包括App Store等数字内容商店、流媒体服务、AppleCare，以及授权等服务。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc322acdec82ae148d045226fec6e90\" /></p><p><span>（App Store）</span></p><p><span>近三个财年，苹果的产品毛利率从35.7%下降到32.2%，降幅为3.5个百分点；服务毛利率则提高了8.7个百分点至63.7%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c973bb3219c440a1eb4a835ad07c1ff\" /></p><p><span>高毛利的服务收入占比在近三个财年由14.3%提高至17.8%，增速快于公司整体增速。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a9cd144132b9fd8807956c22d383a49\" /></p><p><b><span>不仅如此，还要牺牲部分硬件毛利率，来换取服务收入的增长。</span></b></p><p><span>2019财年，苹果在部分地区降价以及推出以旧换新服务。</span></p><p><span>降价的故事风云君在前面已经讲过了，接下来我们谈谈以旧换新。</span></p><p><b><span>六、以旧换新</span></b></p><p><span>从2019财年一季度电话会议开始，苹果开始频繁提到以旧换新项目。比如当季度，在推出iPhone以旧换新活动之后，以旧换新的数量同比增长了一倍以上。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96855ff55f44181a65eb099207c3ce4\" /></p><p><span>（苹果2019财年一季度电话会议，来源：fool.com）</span></p><p><span>接下来的二季度到四季度，同比增速分别在300%、400%、400%以上，创造了新的纪录。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e00f341f681bddbe9a36e946565ba39\" /></p><p><span>（苹果2019财年二季度电话会议，来源：fool.com）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881cc4bfb771b60461c8d911ab4aecb6\" /></p><p><span>（苹果2019财年四季度电话会议，来源：fool.com）</span></p><p><span>而且苹果在2019财年还把地图、Siri、免费iCloud空间等原来包含在产品中的部分收入重新归类至服务收入，并重述了此前两个财年的业绩。</span></p><p><span>这使得2017和2018两个财年重述后的服务收入比原来分别提高了6.9%、9.1%。</span></p><p><span>风云君不得不感慨，会计行业真是任人打扮的小姑娘，怎么好看怎么来。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76cf0d6ef1b0258bf5f5189689f4574d\" /></p><p><span>类似的转型，风云君在《股价一年翻4倍的Roku：占领你的客厅，然后卖广告！？ | 海外风云》中也有提到。</span></p><p><span>Roku（ROKU.O）通过销售比竞争对手更廉价的流媒体播放器，以及向第三方提供操作系统Roku OS来扩大用户基数，然后通过广告等增值服务赚钱。</span></p><p><span>苹果会逐渐转变成这种模式吗？</span></p><p><span><b>七、转型的挑战</b></span></p><p><span>目前看来，苹果想要增加高毛利的服务收入，势必要扩大iOS生态系统的覆盖范围。</span></p><p><span>而iOS系统绝大多数情况下仍然只在苹果自己的硬件上使用。</span></p><p><span>根据苹果披露的数据，活跃设备数（不包括耳机）在2018年四季度超过14亿，其中iPhone活跃设备数为9亿。</span></p><p><span>而苹果的活跃设备数在2015年四季度刚超过10亿。粗略地计算一下，这期间活跃设备数的CAGR为11.9%，增速还不错。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4fd37d20ec77007822e60efde576f98\" /></p><p><span>除了iPhone、Mac、iPad这些存量场景，我们来看看iOS还有哪些增量场景。</span></p><p><span>汽车场景中，苹果的CarPlay支持500多款车型，但是与汽车制造商绑定也就意味着用户数取决于汽车的销量。而且CarPlay目前只支持有限的第三方App，与iOS丰富多彩的生态相比附加值显然要小得多。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04887b0d6bae0606bc6653ea8ddd51f8\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0aa899ffca1a5bdc1c0a2ec82082466\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb423bc7e422369f2ec1802fd437313\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><span>而自己造车显然不是那么容易的。</span></p><p><span>这背后的原因，风云君在《独家重磅 | 金融丛林里的科学狂人：与狼共舞马斯克，一骑绝尘特斯拉》中曾经讲过：</span></p><p><span>“谷歌旗下Waymo被认为是自动驾驶领域的最先进代表，智能程度达到L4-L5，但目前远不及特斯拉这套系统实际应用广泛。</span></p><p><span>显然，没有庞大的应用数据库的积累，代价颇为沉重：复杂多样的真实路况驾驶数据无疑会使特斯拉的这套系统更快迭代，成为竞争对手们越来越难以企及的竞争壁垒。”</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a02fc1c13e6243a2bbb48e404a6ac48\" /></p><p><span>（特斯拉的有限无人驾驶技术已经大规模上路）</span></p><p><span>家庭场景又可以细分为智能音箱（又称为智能语音助手）和智能电视两大生态。</span></p><p><span>智能音箱有亚马逊（AMZN.O）的Alexa，谷歌（GOOGL.O）的Google Home，百度（BIDU.O）的小度智能音箱、阿里巴巴（BABA.N，09988.HK）的天猫精灵等等。</span></p><p><span>2019年四季度，全球智能音箱出货量前五的分别是亚马逊、谷歌、百度、阿里巴巴、小米（01810.HK），合计市场份额达到82.0%。</span></p><p><span>而苹果仅排名第六，市场份额为4.7%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff57ae72b09b9a5924d67311b9b9c13\" /></p><p><span>（来源：Strategy Analytics）</span></p><p><span>智能电视领域有Roku的Roku TV，亚马逊Fire TV、谷歌的Chromecast、苹果Apple TV等。</span></p><p><span>2015年一季度到2019年一季度，Roku的市场份额（注：以已安装的设备为基数）从33%增长到39%，亚马逊Fire TV的市场份额从13%增长到30%，分别占据一二位。</span></p><p><span>同时期，苹果Apple TV的市场份额保持在16%左右。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc42e0b7406d1b1499c8554d5eb4e135\" /></p><p><span>（来源：Parks Associates）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba56b8ea9dcd149f7aaa05c84b7cfec\" /></p><p><span>（Apple TV）</span></p><p><span><b>家庭场景中，苹果表现只能说是中规中矩。</b></span></p><p><span>不过，苹果最近已经开始在内容方面发力，比如推出的大量自制剧，以及苹果新闻。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7326ed0a53e29771a136ce2e8c856a8a\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f090bfa074d411514c7b8743ec885601\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><span>这些都可以看作是苹果丰富iOS生态，从而提供更多附加值的努力。</span></p><p><b><span>另一个苹果做的还不错的领域是可穿戴设备。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae14215530b44832098484746b1dab73\" /></p><p><span>（Apple Watch）</span></p><p><span>根据IDC的数据，2019年三季度全球可穿戴设备出货量前五名分别是苹果、小米、三星、华为、Fitbit（FIT.N）。其中Fitbit已经被谷歌以21亿美元收购。</span></p><p><span>三季度苹果的出货量达到2950万，同比增长195.5%，高于整体市场增速的94.6%。苹果的市场份额由上年同期的23%扩大至35%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80effb1fe35f3da86415040255df9f31\" /></p><p><span>（来源：IDC）</span></p><p><b><span>最后，苹果除了要尽可能地留住并扩大iOS生态的用户，还需要做的就是提高“苹果税”了。</span></b></p><p><span>比如，对苹果设备账号的严格管理，以及非官方渠道下载的APP的限制。另一个我们能更直接感受到的就是苹果和微信（00700.HK）曾经的内容打赏抽成之争：30%的抽成枷锁现在已经强加于诸君之颈项。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2b836764ed33ce5065d7b18f92edf8d\" /></p><p><span>（来源：澎湃新闻，2017.09.18）</span></p><p><b><span>八、现金流、股东回报和负债</span></b></p><p><span>最后，我们来看下现金流和股东回报，作为苹果这道“法式大餐”的甜点。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cb46bad77b80894ef281bd21d0ffdf0\" /></p><p><span>2019财年，苹果公司的经营活动净现金流为693.9亿美元，净现比为125.6%。</span></p><p><span>近十个财年的净现比始终在120%以上，公司的盈利质量非常高。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c23571347f7dbc526b421cbeb434d\" /></p><p><span>同时，公司购买固定资产的现金支出比较稳定，每年都不超过经营活动净现金流的20%，而且公司也很少进行收购。</span></p><p><span>近十年来唯一一笔较大的收购发生在2014财年，当时苹果以26亿美元的价格收购了Beats。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e0fb917ac06950c6a7b1abaf9085a1\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2b052ffbe3f840ac80d63902e7732b\" /></p><p><span>（来源：2014年年报）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/843fbf2c813bb379a2c65ae754cffa60\" /></p><p><span>公司把剩余的大部分现金流都回馈给了股东。</span></p><p><span>2010财年到2020财年一季度，苹果累计净回购股份耗资3193.5亿美元，累计支付股息920.3亿美元，累计的与股权奖励净结算相关的税款支付达到160.6亿美元，合计的股东回报达到4274.4亿美元。</span></p><p><span>与股权奖励净结算相关的税款支付说的是，在员工用股票来支付与股权奖励有关的税款时，公司一般会从员工手里回购这部分股票，从而让员工用现金去支付税款。</span></p><p><span>这也被认为是股东回报的一种方式。</span></p><p><span>同时期，累计的经调整广义经营活动现金流（注：剔出了有价证券买卖等项目）为5049.7亿美元，累计股东回报占累计经调整广义经营活动现金流的比例为84.6%。</span></p><p><span>即使不考虑与股权奖励净结算相关的税款支付，累计股东回报占累计经调整广义经营活动现金流的比例也达到81.5%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007c40400be94443573179da7e08992f\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f84bd50170a8fba19e7517b952449b\" /></p><p><span>（来源：fool.com）</span></p><p><b><span>作为投资者，一定会爱死这样的公司了。</span></b></p><p><b><span>而且苹果在2018和2019财年的股东回报分别达到883.1亿、830.6亿美元，显著高于此前几年500亿美元左右的水平。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df626741faad497491d354c639694d8a\" /></p><p><span>（Apple Park）</span></p><p><span>这与苹果提出的“净现金平衡”（net cash neutral position）有关。净现金是指现金及现金等价物、短期投资、长期投资之和，减去所有的有息负债。</span></p><p><span>“净现金平衡”的目标最早出现在苹果2018财年一季报电话会议中，当时苹果的净现金为1630亿美元。公司的CFO Luca Maestri称要在长期内使净现金变为0。</span></p><p><span>在这之后的2018财年和2019财年末，苹果的净现金分别降至1226.2亿、978.4亿美元。</span></p><p><span>而减少净现金的主要方式就是通过股票回购和分红。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9deb626ad8ead2c582aa77cd80157397\" /></p><p><span>截至2020财年一季度末，苹果的资产负债率为73.7%，其中有息负债占总资产的比例为31.8%。</span></p><p><span>资产负债率从2013年开始逐渐上升，这当中的主要驱动力是有息负债占总资产比例的增加。经营性负债占总资产的比例从2012财年末的32.9%提高到2020财年一季度末的41.9%，上升幅度相对较小。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a90c91a22e36f67f4eb19af9219991a\" /></p><p><span>在这篇文章中，风云君梳理了苹果2019财年一季度以来的增长困境、背后的深层次原因、化解的办法，以及苹果的转型之路。</span></p><p><span>最后再对这样一家伟大的科技公司致以敬意。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果二次复兴</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果二次复兴\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/43\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f9d4dad6ffc401f8c85b4d6b0210c3a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">市值风云 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-02-21 10:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>是各位老铁们再熟悉不过的一家公司。</span></p><p><span>2018年8月，风云君曾经写过一篇讲述当时热门的FAANG五大科技公司的长文，《万字重磅 | 深度解剖美股五大花旦：Apple 、Facebook、Google 、Amazon、Netflix》。</span></p><p><span>当时，苹果已经从2016年收入下滑的困境中走出来。风云君在文章中对苹果从成长性、盈利性、供应链管理效率多个方面进行了分析，结论是苹果增长趋缓、盈利指标仍维持在高位、同时运营效率非常优秀。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b21c419b84ee658dd7f9093ee33eca62\" /></p><p><span>又过了一年，风云君决定回来看看这位老朋友。</span></p><p><span>不过这次要换个角度，先从大家最熟悉的iPhone说起。</span></p><p><span><b>一、iPhone真正涨价其实是这几年的事</b></span></p><p><span>风云君整理了历代iPhone在美国地区的首发不含税价格（注：均为最低存储配置），并将其分为基本款、高配款和尊享款。</span></p><p><span>iPhone 5c和iPhone SE由于没有后继产品，这里列入其他。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65bb1a3b8c9df0bebb6f71f70b6b4b10\" /></p><p><span>（来源：网络数据，市值风云整理）</span></p><p><span>iPhone的发展可以分为三个阶段：</span></p><p><span>单iPhone时代：从2007年的初代iPhone到2013年的iPhone 5s；</span></p><p><span>双iPhone时代：从2014年的iPhone 6、iPhone 6 Plus到2016年的iPhone 7、iPhone 7 Plus；</span></p><p><span>三iPhone时代：从2017年的iPhone 8、iPhone8 Plus、iPhone X到2019年的iPhone 11、iPhone 11 Pro、iPhone 11 Pro Max。</span></p><p><span>可以清楚得看到，</span><span><b>iPhone售价的全面提高是从2017年的“三iPhone时代”开始的。</b></span></p><p><span>在这之前的2011-2016年，基本款的iPhone价格一直维持在649美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5905b1485851660f93614ced26d1ab13\" /></p><p><span>（来源：网络数据；市值风云整理）</span></p><p><span>而2017年，基本款的iPhone 8发售价达到699美元，比上代的iPhone 7贵了50美元；高配款的iPhone 8 Plus比iPhone 7 Plus贵了30美元，达到799美元；新推出的iPhone X售价更是高达999美元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee458f60bcb4d502a332493eaec1f108\" /></p><p><span>（2017年发售的iPhone 8和iPhone 8 Plus）</span></p><p><span>售价变高的同时，成本也变高了。</span></p><p><span>根据IHS Markit（INFO.O）的数据，iPhone X的成本达到370.25美元，远高于此前iPhone 7、iPhone 7 Plus的219.80、270.88美元；iPhone X的物料成本占售价的比例为37.1%，也高于iPhone 7、iPhone 7 Plus的33.9%、35.2%。</span></p><p><b><span>高配款iPhone从2014年一经推出，物料成本占比就不断上升；基本款则至少是从iPhone 7发售的2016年，物料成本占比开始明显上升的。</span></b></p><p><span>iPhone XS Max则是近年来成本最高的一款机型，合计物料成本高达390美元，占售价的比重达到35.5%。</span></p><p><span>2019年最新款iPhone的物料成本数据暂时没有找到。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5cac1c0d79f5a637590515fb143e3ca\" /></p><p><span>（来源：IHS Markit）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be2f9b19006057b7576bdb7ba5a388b5\" /></p><p><span>（来源：IHS Markit，市值风云整理）</span></p><p><span><b>二、iPhone的“涨价魔咒”</b></span></p><p><span>下面我们来看看iPhone的销售数据。</span></p><p><span>每个财年的一季度（注：苹果的财年从上一年10月初至当年9月底）是苹果9月新品发布会之后的首个季度。再加上圣诞假期的影响，当季的销售额占全年很大比例，比如说近两年平均要占到全年销售额的36.8%。</span></p><p><span>“三iPhone时代”开启的2017年，对应的是2018财年一季度（注：开始于2017年10月的季度）。</span></p><p><b><span>可以看到，从这时开始到2018财年四季度，iPhone销售额同比增速不断加快，但销量几乎没有增长，反映出了iPhone平均售价的提高。</span></b></p><p><b><span>紧接着2019财年一季度，苹果进一步提高三款新发售iPhone的售价，销量和销售额却分别下滑11.5%和14.9%，并在二季度进一步下滑。</span></b></p><p><span>类似的情况在3年前也发生过一次。</span></p><p><span>2015财年，苹果进入了“双iPhone时代”，iPhone 6相比5s虽然没涨价，新的iPhone 6 Plus却要贵100美元，从而拉高了平均售价。</span></p><p><span>这就导致当时的销售额增速也要明显高于销量增速。</span></p><p><span>而且接下来的2016财年也是销售额和销量双双下滑。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c437c789b601aa2ec4ec843ac07b36\" /></p><p><span>（注：2019财年起苹果不再公布销量，这里取的是IDC数据）</span></p><p><b><span>这难道就是iPhone的“涨价魔咒“？</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6fbd8bc9be7ff1d3da6620c010091d3\" /></p><p><span>（起售价接近1000美元的iPhone X）</span></p><p><span><b>三、详细盘点这一次探底的过程</b></span></p><p><span>回到2019财年的这次业绩下滑。</span></p><p><span>早在一季报发布之前的1月2日，苹果就下调了当季的指引，给投资者打了一剂预防针。其中收入指引由原来的890亿-930亿美元降至840亿美元，比上年同期下滑4.9%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e471a3b4ed20c448d796f752a266abd\" /></p><p><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p><p><span>库克解释说这是由于新iPhone的销量低于预期，特别是在中国的销量。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9863acda4ebc387a0bee6d8b32a9c021\" /></p><p><b><span>第二天的1月3日，苹果股价大跌了10.21%。</span></b></p><p><span>当时风云君都觉得苹果的时代可能要过去了。此后，苹果手机降价的新闻不绝于耳。</span></p><p><span>先是1月份电商平台降价幅度超过1000元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be4ff67c52b79d5dd5948e359138265a\" /></p><p><span>（来源：新京报）</span></p><p><span>后来的2月和3月又有两轮降价，部分电商平台降价幅度甚至超过2000元。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4017a540fcdc462715b2de9459e2e95b\" /></p><p><span>（来源：新京报）</span></p><p><span>这一段时间，苹果的股价已经恢复上涨趋势。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d7447bf82df7e5c68316741efd8af\" /></p><p><span>紧接着2019年5月，苹果发布第二财季业绩，老铁们可以翻看风云君当时翻译的《苹果二季报电话会议实录》。</span></p><p><span>这个季度，苹果收入又同比下滑了5.1%，库克在电话会议中多次提到降价和以旧换新。</span></p><p><span>这时候也差不多是苹果业绩的拐点。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792deeab56062d72bd8f7e7f61a900ce\" /></p><p><span>这之后，出人意料的事情发生了！</span></p><p><span>9月份，苹果发布最新的iPhone 11系列。浴霸镜头、没有5G又引发了大家的吐槽，然而电商平台的预售销量却翻了四倍！</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/129fa490d968c67a6626b2fd18e8250d\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e63dd8394849d51c570f7b7f50cda965\" /></p><p><span>（来源：第一财经）</span></p><p><span>就在我们以为这只是一时现象的时候，苹果公布了2020财年一季报：营收达到创纪录的918.19亿美元，同比增长8.9%，净利润达到222.36亿美元，同比增长11.4%。</span></p><p><span>大象又开始跳舞了，风云君感叹那个曾经的苹果又回来了。</span></p><p><span><b>四、两次增长危机，复苏各有不同</b></span></p><p><span>2019财年就只是三年前的一次重演吗？</span></p><p><span>各位不妨坐上风云君的时空穿梭机回去看看。</span></p><p><span>2014财年一季度至今，苹果的季度收入一共经历了2次负增长：</span></p><p><span>第一次是2016财年的二季度到四季度，季度同比增速分别为-12.8%、-14.6%、-9.0%；</span></p><p><span>第二次是2019财年一季度至二季度，季度同比增速分别为-4.5%、-5.1%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cca026c9e8a4fc5d82b505326221a1d2\" /></p><p><span>同时期，iPhone季度销售额占苹果总收入的比例始终在60%上下。</span></p><p><span><b>而且，iPhone季度销售额同比增速为正的时候，苹果收入同比增速也为正，反之亦然。</b></span></p><p><b><span>这体现了iPhone对苹果整体业绩的拉动作用。</span></b></p><p><span>唯一的一次例外出现在2019财年三季度和四季度。这两个财季iPhone销售额同比增速分别为-11.8%、-9.2%，而苹果的收入增速分别为1.0%、1.8%。</span></p><p><span>这段时期对业绩起到拉动作用的不是iPhone，那会是什么呢？</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec30ff2465afb52b31e70ebc4e5941c7\" /></p><p><span>翻出近两个财年的分部收入季度增速，可以看出，2019财年三季度和四季度均保持正增长的有三项业务：可穿戴、家庭和配件收入，服务收入，以及Mac。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c59f517b3b26612844ae1203609015d\" /></p><p><span>再结合2019财年三季度收入占比来看，可穿戴、家庭和配件收入占比10.3%，增速48%；服务收入占比21.3%，增速12.6%；Mac占比10.8%，增速10.7%。</span></p><p><span><b>拉动2019财年三季度增长的首先是可穿戴、家庭和配件收入，其次就是服务收入。</b></span><span>风云君在后面还会再提到这两项业务。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5ac1b161213cb31f1b1685701d9d40\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a3fe2c5ea67351de22e15e699d1ba13\" /></p><p><span>（苹果的可穿戴设备之一AirPods Pro）</span></p><p><b><span>而三年前的2016财年，同样是连续的负增长，但最终走出低谷靠的是iPhone。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19ebe0d54a237e214285eaf3e878dac\" /></p><p><span>比如说2017财年一季度，苹果的收入增速刚恢复到正数。当季iPhone收入占比69.4%，同比增长5.3%，对增长的贡献最大。其次的贡献来自服务收入和Mac，其他业务仍处于负增长。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd4aeaec19ce66a6a54689ec3243f583\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dad179ef64838e356032aa495c2318b\" /></p><p><span>（2016年发售的iPhone 7 Plus）</span></p><p><b><span>iPhone对于苹果重要性的下降，就是2019年的苹果与三年前不同的地方。</span></b></p><p><span>而这背后，则是毛利率的压力。</span></p><p><span><b>五、由硬件转向服务，背后是毛利率下降的压力</b></span></p><p><span>我们先上一张图。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f57cbc539c950d4df9508a9a8b9ccc49\" /></p><p><span>苹果的毛利率在2012和2015财年分别达到两次高点：</span></p><p><span>其中，2012财年的毛利率为43.9%，与iPhone销售额占比提高，以及大宗商品价格波动导致的成本降低有关；</span></p><p><span>2015财年的毛利率达到40.1%，主要与2014年发布的iPhone 6 Plus物料成本占比更低有关。</span></p><p><span>可见iPhone对于苹果的重要性。</span></p><p><span>但是！但是！苹果在iPhone上的“挤牙膏式”创新越来越难以拉高毛利率了。</span></p><p><b><span>这背后的原因表面上是iPhone物料成本占比的提高，更深层次的原因则是智能手机整体创新乏力，市场竞争加剧。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a8e5b97dfa48150b72af9dd29d5937a\" /></p><p><span>（来源：2012财年年报）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c9ca46294ba1fb4e5a36ef6e482430d\" /></p><p><span>（来源：2015财年年报）</span></p><p><span>这怎么办呢？当然是转型毛利更高的服务啊~</span></p><p><span>苹果的服务收入包括App Store等数字内容商店、流媒体服务、AppleCare，以及授权等服务。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bc322acdec82ae148d045226fec6e90\" /></p><p><span>（App Store）</span></p><p><span>近三个财年，苹果的产品毛利率从35.7%下降到32.2%，降幅为3.5个百分点；服务毛利率则提高了8.7个百分点至63.7%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c973bb3219c440a1eb4a835ad07c1ff\" /></p><p><span>高毛利的服务收入占比在近三个财年由14.3%提高至17.8%，增速快于公司整体增速。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a9cd144132b9fd8807956c22d383a49\" /></p><p><b><span>不仅如此，还要牺牲部分硬件毛利率，来换取服务收入的增长。</span></b></p><p><span>2019财年，苹果在部分地区降价以及推出以旧换新服务。</span></p><p><span>降价的故事风云君在前面已经讲过了，接下来我们谈谈以旧换新。</span></p><p><b><span>六、以旧换新</span></b></p><p><span>从2019财年一季度电话会议开始，苹果开始频繁提到以旧换新项目。比如当季度，在推出iPhone以旧换新活动之后，以旧换新的数量同比增长了一倍以上。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96855ff55f44181a65eb099207c3ce4\" /></p><p><span>（苹果2019财年一季度电话会议，来源：fool.com）</span></p><p><span>接下来的二季度到四季度，同比增速分别在300%、400%、400%以上，创造了新的纪录。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e00f341f681bddbe9a36e946565ba39\" /></p><p><span>（苹果2019财年二季度电话会议，来源：fool.com）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/881cc4bfb771b60461c8d911ab4aecb6\" /></p><p><span>（苹果2019财年四季度电话会议，来源：fool.com）</span></p><p><span>而且苹果在2019财年还把地图、Siri、免费iCloud空间等原来包含在产品中的部分收入重新归类至服务收入，并重述了此前两个财年的业绩。</span></p><p><span>这使得2017和2018两个财年重述后的服务收入比原来分别提高了6.9%、9.1%。</span></p><p><span>风云君不得不感慨，会计行业真是任人打扮的小姑娘，怎么好看怎么来。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76cf0d6ef1b0258bf5f5189689f4574d\" /></p><p><span>类似的转型，风云君在《股价一年翻4倍的Roku：占领你的客厅，然后卖广告！？ | 海外风云》中也有提到。</span></p><p><span>Roku（ROKU.O）通过销售比竞争对手更廉价的流媒体播放器，以及向第三方提供操作系统Roku OS来扩大用户基数，然后通过广告等增值服务赚钱。</span></p><p><span>苹果会逐渐转变成这种模式吗？</span></p><p><span><b>七、转型的挑战</b></span></p><p><span>目前看来，苹果想要增加高毛利的服务收入，势必要扩大iOS生态系统的覆盖范围。</span></p><p><span>而iOS系统绝大多数情况下仍然只在苹果自己的硬件上使用。</span></p><p><span>根据苹果披露的数据，活跃设备数（不包括耳机）在2018年四季度超过14亿，其中iPhone活跃设备数为9亿。</span></p><p><span>而苹果的活跃设备数在2015年四季度刚超过10亿。粗略地计算一下，这期间活跃设备数的CAGR为11.9%，增速还不错。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4fd37d20ec77007822e60efde576f98\" /></p><p><span>除了iPhone、Mac、iPad这些存量场景，我们来看看iOS还有哪些增量场景。</span></p><p><span>汽车场景中，苹果的CarPlay支持500多款车型，但是与汽车制造商绑定也就意味着用户数取决于汽车的销量。而且CarPlay目前只支持有限的第三方App，与iOS丰富多彩的生态相比附加值显然要小得多。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04887b0d6bae0606bc6653ea8ddd51f8\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0aa899ffca1a5bdc1c0a2ec82082466\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb423bc7e422369f2ec1802fd437313\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><span>而自己造车显然不是那么容易的。</span></p><p><span>这背后的原因，风云君在《独家重磅 | 金融丛林里的科学狂人：与狼共舞马斯克，一骑绝尘特斯拉》中曾经讲过：</span></p><p><span>“谷歌旗下Waymo被认为是自动驾驶领域的最先进代表，智能程度达到L4-L5，但目前远不及特斯拉这套系统实际应用广泛。</span></p><p><span>显然，没有庞大的应用数据库的积累，代价颇为沉重：复杂多样的真实路况驾驶数据无疑会使特斯拉的这套系统更快迭代，成为竞争对手们越来越难以企及的竞争壁垒。”</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a02fc1c13e6243a2bbb48e404a6ac48\" /></p><p><span>（特斯拉的有限无人驾驶技术已经大规模上路）</span></p><p><span>家庭场景又可以细分为智能音箱（又称为智能语音助手）和智能电视两大生态。</span></p><p><span>智能音箱有亚马逊（AMZN.O）的Alexa，谷歌（GOOGL.O）的Google Home，百度（BIDU.O）的小度智能音箱、阿里巴巴（BABA.N，09988.HK）的天猫精灵等等。</span></p><p><span>2019年四季度，全球智能音箱出货量前五的分别是亚马逊、谷歌、百度、阿里巴巴、小米（01810.HK），合计市场份额达到82.0%。</span></p><p><span>而苹果仅排名第六，市场份额为4.7%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff57ae72b09b9a5924d67311b9b9c13\" /></p><p><span>（来源：Strategy Analytics）</span></p><p><span>智能电视领域有Roku的Roku TV，亚马逊Fire TV、谷歌的Chromecast、苹果Apple TV等。</span></p><p><span>2015年一季度到2019年一季度，Roku的市场份额（注：以已安装的设备为基数）从33%增长到39%，亚马逊Fire TV的市场份额从13%增长到30%，分别占据一二位。</span></p><p><span>同时期，苹果Apple TV的市场份额保持在16%左右。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc42e0b7406d1b1499c8554d5eb4e135\" /></p><p><span>（来源：Parks Associates）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba56b8ea9dcd149f7aaa05c84b7cfec\" /></p><p><span>（Apple TV）</span></p><p><span><b>家庭场景中，苹果表现只能说是中规中矩。</b></span></p><p><span>不过，苹果最近已经开始在内容方面发力，比如推出的大量自制剧，以及苹果新闻。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7326ed0a53e29771a136ce2e8c856a8a\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f090bfa074d411514c7b8743ec885601\" /></p><p><span>（来源：官网）</span></p><p><span>这些都可以看作是苹果丰富iOS生态，从而提供更多附加值的努力。</span></p><p><b><span>另一个苹果做的还不错的领域是可穿戴设备。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae14215530b44832098484746b1dab73\" /></p><p><span>（Apple Watch）</span></p><p><span>根据IDC的数据，2019年三季度全球可穿戴设备出货量前五名分别是苹果、小米、三星、华为、Fitbit（FIT.N）。其中Fitbit已经被谷歌以21亿美元收购。</span></p><p><span>三季度苹果的出货量达到2950万，同比增长195.5%，高于整体市场增速的94.6%。苹果的市场份额由上年同期的23%扩大至35%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80effb1fe35f3da86415040255df9f31\" /></p><p><span>（来源：IDC）</span></p><p><b><span>最后，苹果除了要尽可能地留住并扩大iOS生态的用户，还需要做的就是提高“苹果税”了。</span></b></p><p><span>比如，对苹果设备账号的严格管理，以及非官方渠道下载的APP的限制。另一个我们能更直接感受到的就是苹果和微信（00700.HK）曾经的内容打赏抽成之争：30%的抽成枷锁现在已经强加于诸君之颈项。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2b836764ed33ce5065d7b18f92edf8d\" /></p><p><span>（来源：澎湃新闻，2017.09.18）</span></p><p><b><span>八、现金流、股东回报和负债</span></b></p><p><span>最后，我们来看下现金流和股东回报，作为苹果这道“法式大餐”的甜点。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cb46bad77b80894ef281bd21d0ffdf0\" /></p><p><span>2019财年，苹果公司的经营活动净现金流为693.9亿美元，净现比为125.6%。</span></p><p><span>近十个财年的净现比始终在120%以上，公司的盈利质量非常高。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c23571347f7dbc526b421cbeb434d\" /></p><p><span>同时，公司购买固定资产的现金支出比较稳定，每年都不超过经营活动净现金流的20%，而且公司也很少进行收购。</span></p><p><span>近十年来唯一一笔较大的收购发生在2014财年，当时苹果以26亿美元的价格收购了Beats。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e0fb917ac06950c6a7b1abaf9085a1\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2b052ffbe3f840ac80d63902e7732b\" /></p><p><span>（来源：2014年年报）</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/843fbf2c813bb379a2c65ae754cffa60\" /></p><p><span>公司把剩余的大部分现金流都回馈给了股东。</span></p><p><span>2010财年到2020财年一季度，苹果累计净回购股份耗资3193.5亿美元，累计支付股息920.3亿美元，累计的与股权奖励净结算相关的税款支付达到160.6亿美元，合计的股东回报达到4274.4亿美元。</span></p><p><span>与股权奖励净结算相关的税款支付说的是，在员工用股票来支付与股权奖励有关的税款时，公司一般会从员工手里回购这部分股票，从而让员工用现金去支付税款。</span></p><p><span>这也被认为是股东回报的一种方式。</span></p><p><span>同时期，累计的经调整广义经营活动现金流（注：剔出了有价证券买卖等项目）为5049.7亿美元，累计股东回报占累计经调整广义经营活动现金流的比例为84.6%。</span></p><p><span>即使不考虑与股权奖励净结算相关的税款支付，累计股东回报占累计经调整广义经营活动现金流的比例也达到81.5%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007c40400be94443573179da7e08992f\" /></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f84bd50170a8fba19e7517b952449b\" /></p><p><span>（来源：fool.com）</span></p><p><b><span>作为投资者，一定会爱死这样的公司了。</span></b></p><p><b><span>而且苹果在2018和2019财年的股东回报分别达到883.1亿、830.6亿美元，显著高于此前几年500亿美元左右的水平。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df626741faad497491d354c639694d8a\" /></p><p><span>（Apple Park）</span></p><p><span>这与苹果提出的“净现金平衡”（net cash neutral position）有关。净现金是指现金及现金等价物、短期投资、长期投资之和，减去所有的有息负债。</span></p><p><span>“净现金平衡”的目标最早出现在苹果2018财年一季报电话会议中，当时苹果的净现金为1630亿美元。公司的CFO Luca Maestri称要在长期内使净现金变为0。</span></p><p><span>在这之后的2018财年和2019财年末，苹果的净现金分别降至1226.2亿、978.4亿美元。</span></p><p><span>而减少净现金的主要方式就是通过股票回购和分红。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9deb626ad8ead2c582aa77cd80157397\" /></p><p><span>截至2020财年一季度末，苹果的资产负债率为73.7%，其中有息负债占总资产的比例为31.8%。</span></p><p><span>资产负债率从2013年开始逐渐上升，这当中的主要驱动力是有息负债占总资产比例的增加。经营性负债占总资产的比例从2012财年末的32.9%提高到2020财年一季度末的41.9%，上升幅度相对较小。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a90c91a22e36f67f4eb19af9219991a\" /></p><p><span>在这篇文章中，风云君梳理了苹果2019财年一季度以来的增长困境、背后的深层次原因、化解的办法，以及苹果的转型之路。</span></p><p><span>最后再对这样一家伟大的科技公司致以敬意。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dad179ef64838e356032aa495c2318b","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106024265","content_text":"苹果$(AAPL)$是各位老铁们再熟悉不过的一家公司。2018年8月，风云君曾经写过一篇讲述当时热门的FAANG五大科技公司的长文，《万字重磅 | 深度解剖美股五大花旦：Apple 、Facebook、Google 、Amazon、Netflix》。当时，苹果已经从2016年收入下滑的困境中走出来。风云君在文章中对苹果从成长性、盈利性、供应链管理效率多个方面进行了分析，结论是苹果增长趋缓、盈利指标仍维持在高位、同时运营效率非常优秀。又过了一年，风云君决定回来看看这位老朋友。不过这次要换个角度，先从大家最熟悉的iPhone说起。一、iPhone真正涨价其实是这几年的事风云君整理了历代iPhone在美国地区的首发不含税价格（注：均为最低存储配置），并将其分为基本款、高配款和尊享款。iPhone 5c和iPhone SE由于没有后继产品，这里列入其他。（来源：网络数据，市值风云整理）iPhone的发展可以分为三个阶段：单iPhone时代：从2007年的初代iPhone到2013年的iPhone 5s；双iPhone时代：从2014年的iPhone 6、iPhone 6 Plus到2016年的iPhone 7、iPhone 7 Plus；三iPhone时代：从2017年的iPhone 8、iPhone8 Plus、iPhone X到2019年的iPhone 11、iPhone 11 Pro、iPhone 11 Pro Max。可以清楚得看到，iPhone售价的全面提高是从2017年的“三iPhone时代”开始的。在这之前的2011-2016年，基本款的iPhone价格一直维持在649美元。（来源：网络数据；市值风云整理）而2017年，基本款的iPhone 8发售价达到699美元，比上代的iPhone 7贵了50美元；高配款的iPhone 8 Plus比iPhone 7 Plus贵了30美元，达到799美元；新推出的iPhone X售价更是高达999美元。（2017年发售的iPhone 8和iPhone 8 Plus）售价变高的同时，成本也变高了。根据IHS Markit（INFO.O）的数据，iPhone X的成本达到370.25美元，远高于此前iPhone 7、iPhone 7 Plus的219.80、270.88美元；iPhone X的物料成本占售价的比例为37.1%，也高于iPhone 7、iPhone 7 Plus的33.9%、35.2%。高配款iPhone从2014年一经推出，物料成本占比就不断上升；基本款则至少是从iPhone 7发售的2016年，物料成本占比开始明显上升的。iPhone XS Max则是近年来成本最高的一款机型，合计物料成本高达390美元，占售价的比重达到35.5%。2019年最新款iPhone的物料成本数据暂时没有找到。（来源：IHS Markit）（来源：IHS Markit，市值风云整理）二、iPhone的“涨价魔咒”下面我们来看看iPhone的销售数据。每个财年的一季度（注：苹果的财年从上一年10月初至当年9月底）是苹果9月新品发布会之后的首个季度。再加上圣诞假期的影响，当季的销售额占全年很大比例，比如说近两年平均要占到全年销售额的36.8%。“三iPhone时代”开启的2017年，对应的是2018财年一季度（注：开始于2017年10月的季度）。可以看到，从这时开始到2018财年四季度，iPhone销售额同比增速不断加快，但销量几乎没有增长，反映出了iPhone平均售价的提高。紧接着2019财年一季度，苹果进一步提高三款新发售iPhone的售价，销量和销售额却分别下滑11.5%和14.9%，并在二季度进一步下滑。类似的情况在3年前也发生过一次。2015财年，苹果进入了“双iPhone时代”，iPhone 6相比5s虽然没涨价，新的iPhone 6 Plus却要贵100美元，从而拉高了平均售价。这就导致当时的销售额增速也要明显高于销量增速。而且接下来的2016财年也是销售额和销量双双下滑。（注：2019财年起苹果不再公布销量，这里取的是IDC数据）这难道就是iPhone的“涨价魔咒“？（起售价接近1000美元的iPhone X）三、详细盘点这一次探底的过程回到2019财年的这次业绩下滑。早在一季报发布之前的1月2日，苹果就下调了当季的指引，给投资者打了一剂预防针。其中收入指引由原来的890亿-930亿美元降至840亿美元，比上年同期下滑4.9%。（来源：Seeking Alpha）库克解释说这是由于新iPhone的销量低于预期，特别是在中国的销量。第二天的1月3日，苹果股价大跌了10.21%。当时风云君都觉得苹果的时代可能要过去了。此后，苹果手机降价的新闻不绝于耳。先是1月份电商平台降价幅度超过1000元。（来源：新京报）后来的2月和3月又有两轮降价，部分电商平台降价幅度甚至超过2000元。（来源：新京报）这一段时间，苹果的股价已经恢复上涨趋势。紧接着2019年5月，苹果发布第二财季业绩，老铁们可以翻看风云君当时翻译的《苹果二季报电话会议实录》。这个季度，苹果收入又同比下滑了5.1%，库克在电话会议中多次提到降价和以旧换新。这时候也差不多是苹果业绩的拐点。这之后，出人意料的事情发生了！9月份，苹果发布最新的iPhone 11系列。浴霸镜头、没有5G又引发了大家的吐槽，然而电商平台的预售销量却翻了四倍！（来源：第一财经）就在我们以为这只是一时现象的时候，苹果公布了2020财年一季报：营收达到创纪录的918.19亿美元，同比增长8.9%，净利润达到222.36亿美元，同比增长11.4%。大象又开始跳舞了，风云君感叹那个曾经的苹果又回来了。四、两次增长危机，复苏各有不同2019财年就只是三年前的一次重演吗？各位不妨坐上风云君的时空穿梭机回去看看。2014财年一季度至今，苹果的季度收入一共经历了2次负增长：第一次是2016财年的二季度到四季度，季度同比增速分别为-12.8%、-14.6%、-9.0%；第二次是2019财年一季度至二季度，季度同比增速分别为-4.5%、-5.1%。同时期，iPhone季度销售额占苹果总收入的比例始终在60%上下。而且，iPhone季度销售额同比增速为正的时候，苹果收入同比增速也为正，反之亦然。这体现了iPhone对苹果整体业绩的拉动作用。唯一的一次例外出现在2019财年三季度和四季度。这两个财季iPhone销售额同比增速分别为-11.8%、-9.2%，而苹果的收入增速分别为1.0%、1.8%。这段时期对业绩起到拉动作用的不是iPhone，那会是什么呢？翻出近两个财年的分部收入季度增速，可以看出，2019财年三季度和四季度均保持正增长的有三项业务：可穿戴、家庭和配件收入，服务收入，以及Mac。再结合2019财年三季度收入占比来看，可穿戴、家庭和配件收入占比10.3%，增速48%；服务收入占比21.3%，增速12.6%；Mac占比10.8%，增速10.7%。拉动2019财年三季度增长的首先是可穿戴、家庭和配件收入，其次就是服务收入。风云君在后面还会再提到这两项业务。（苹果的可穿戴设备之一AirPods Pro）而三年前的2016财年，同样是连续的负增长，但最终走出低谷靠的是iPhone。比如说2017财年一季度，苹果的收入增速刚恢复到正数。当季iPhone收入占比69.4%，同比增长5.3%，对增长的贡献最大。其次的贡献来自服务收入和Mac，其他业务仍处于负增长。（2016年发售的iPhone 7 Plus）iPhone对于苹果重要性的下降，就是2019年的苹果与三年前不同的地方。而这背后，则是毛利率的压力。五、由硬件转向服务，背后是毛利率下降的压力我们先上一张图。苹果的毛利率在2012和2015财年分别达到两次高点：其中，2012财年的毛利率为43.9%，与iPhone销售额占比提高，以及大宗商品价格波动导致的成本降低有关；2015财年的毛利率达到40.1%，主要与2014年发布的iPhone 6 Plus物料成本占比更低有关。可见iPhone对于苹果的重要性。但是！但是！苹果在iPhone上的“挤牙膏式”创新越来越难以拉高毛利率了。这背后的原因表面上是iPhone物料成本占比的提高，更深层次的原因则是智能手机整体创新乏力，市场竞争加剧。（来源：2012财年年报）（来源：2015财年年报）这怎么办呢？当然是转型毛利更高的服务啊~苹果的服务收入包括App Store等数字内容商店、流媒体服务、AppleCare，以及授权等服务。（App Store）近三个财年，苹果的产品毛利率从35.7%下降到32.2%，降幅为3.5个百分点；服务毛利率则提高了8.7个百分点至63.7%。高毛利的服务收入占比在近三个财年由14.3%提高至17.8%，增速快于公司整体增速。不仅如此，还要牺牲部分硬件毛利率，来换取服务收入的增长。2019财年，苹果在部分地区降价以及推出以旧换新服务。降价的故事风云君在前面已经讲过了，接下来我们谈谈以旧换新。六、以旧换新从2019财年一季度电话会议开始，苹果开始频繁提到以旧换新项目。比如当季度，在推出iPhone以旧换新活动之后，以旧换新的数量同比增长了一倍以上。（苹果2019财年一季度电话会议，来源：fool.com）接下来的二季度到四季度，同比增速分别在300%、400%、400%以上，创造了新的纪录。（苹果2019财年二季度电话会议，来源：fool.com）（苹果2019财年四季度电话会议，来源：fool.com）而且苹果在2019财年还把地图、Siri、免费iCloud空间等原来包含在产品中的部分收入重新归类至服务收入，并重述了此前两个财年的业绩。这使得2017和2018两个财年重述后的服务收入比原来分别提高了6.9%、9.1%。风云君不得不感慨，会计行业真是任人打扮的小姑娘，怎么好看怎么来。类似的转型，风云君在《股价一年翻4倍的Roku：占领你的客厅，然后卖广告！？ | 海外风云》中也有提到。Roku（ROKU.O）通过销售比竞争对手更廉价的流媒体播放器，以及向第三方提供操作系统Roku OS来扩大用户基数，然后通过广告等增值服务赚钱。苹果会逐渐转变成这种模式吗？七、转型的挑战目前看来，苹果想要增加高毛利的服务收入，势必要扩大iOS生态系统的覆盖范围。而iOS系统绝大多数情况下仍然只在苹果自己的硬件上使用。根据苹果披露的数据，活跃设备数（不包括耳机）在2018年四季度超过14亿，其中iPhone活跃设备数为9亿。而苹果的活跃设备数在2015年四季度刚超过10亿。粗略地计算一下，这期间活跃设备数的CAGR为11.9%，增速还不错。除了iPhone、Mac、iPad这些存量场景，我们来看看iOS还有哪些增量场景。汽车场景中，苹果的CarPlay支持500多款车型，但是与汽车制造商绑定也就意味着用户数取决于汽车的销量。而且CarPlay目前只支持有限的第三方App，与iOS丰富多彩的生态相比附加值显然要小得多。（来源：官网）（来源：官网）（来源：官网）而自己造车显然不是那么容易的。这背后的原因，风云君在《独家重磅 | 金融丛林里的科学狂人：与狼共舞马斯克，一骑绝尘特斯拉》中曾经讲过：“谷歌旗下Waymo被认为是自动驾驶领域的最先进代表，智能程度达到L4-L5，但目前远不及特斯拉这套系统实际应用广泛。显然，没有庞大的应用数据库的积累，代价颇为沉重：复杂多样的真实路况驾驶数据无疑会使特斯拉的这套系统更快迭代，成为竞争对手们越来越难以企及的竞争壁垒。”（特斯拉的有限无人驾驶技术已经大规模上路）家庭场景又可以细分为智能音箱（又称为智能语音助手）和智能电视两大生态。智能音箱有亚马逊（AMZN.O）的Alexa，谷歌（GOOGL.O）的Google Home，百度（BIDU.O）的小度智能音箱、阿里巴巴（BABA.N，09988.HK）的天猫精灵等等。2019年四季度，全球智能音箱出货量前五的分别是亚马逊、谷歌、百度、阿里巴巴、小米（01810.HK），合计市场份额达到82.0%。而苹果仅排名第六，市场份额为4.7%。（来源：Strategy Analytics）智能电视领域有Roku的Roku TV，亚马逊Fire TV、谷歌的Chromecast、苹果Apple TV等。2015年一季度到2019年一季度，Roku的市场份额（注：以已安装的设备为基数）从33%增长到39%，亚马逊Fire TV的市场份额从13%增长到30%，分别占据一二位。同时期，苹果Apple TV的市场份额保持在16%左右。（来源：Parks Associates）（Apple TV）家庭场景中，苹果表现只能说是中规中矩。不过，苹果最近已经开始在内容方面发力，比如推出的大量自制剧，以及苹果新闻。（来源：官网）（来源：官网）这些都可以看作是苹果丰富iOS生态，从而提供更多附加值的努力。另一个苹果做的还不错的领域是可穿戴设备。（Apple Watch）根据IDC的数据，2019年三季度全球可穿戴设备出货量前五名分别是苹果、小米、三星、华为、Fitbit（FIT.N）。其中Fitbit已经被谷歌以21亿美元收购。三季度苹果的出货量达到2950万，同比增长195.5%，高于整体市场增速的94.6%。苹果的市场份额由上年同期的23%扩大至35%。（来源：IDC）最后，苹果除了要尽可能地留住并扩大iOS生态的用户，还需要做的就是提高“苹果税”了。比如，对苹果设备账号的严格管理，以及非官方渠道下载的APP的限制。另一个我们能更直接感受到的就是苹果和微信（00700.HK）曾经的内容打赏抽成之争：30%的抽成枷锁现在已经强加于诸君之颈项。（来源：澎湃新闻，2017.09.18）八、现金流、股东回报和负债最后，我们来看下现金流和股东回报，作为苹果这道“法式大餐”的甜点。2019财年，苹果公司的经营活动净现金流为693.9亿美元，净现比为125.6%。近十个财年的净现比始终在120%以上，公司的盈利质量非常高。同时，公司购买固定资产的现金支出比较稳定，每年都不超过经营活动净现金流的20%，而且公司也很少进行收购。近十年来唯一一笔较大的收购发生在2014财年，当时苹果以26亿美元的价格收购了Beats。（来源：2014年年报）公司把剩余的大部分现金流都回馈给了股东。2010财年到2020财年一季度，苹果累计净回购股份耗资3193.5亿美元，累计支付股息920.3亿美元，累计的与股权奖励净结算相关的税款支付达到160.6亿美元，合计的股东回报达到4274.4亿美元。与股权奖励净结算相关的税款支付说的是，在员工用股票来支付与股权奖励有关的税款时，公司一般会从员工手里回购这部分股票，从而让员工用现金去支付税款。这也被认为是股东回报的一种方式。同时期，累计的经调整广义经营活动现金流（注：剔出了有价证券买卖等项目）为5049.7亿美元，累计股东回报占累计经调整广义经营活动现金流的比例为84.6%。即使不考虑与股权奖励净结算相关的税款支付，累计股东回报占累计经调整广义经营活动现金流的比例也达到81.5%。（来源：fool.com）作为投资者，一定会爱死这样的公司了。而且苹果在2018和2019财年的股东回报分别达到883.1亿、830.6亿美元，显著高于此前几年500亿美元左右的水平。（Apple Park）这与苹果提出的“净现金平衡”（net cash neutral position）有关。净现金是指现金及现金等价物、短期投资、长期投资之和，减去所有的有息负债。“净现金平衡”的目标最早出现在苹果2018财年一季报电话会议中，当时苹果的净现金为1630亿美元。公司的CFO Luca Maestri称要在长期内使净现金变为0。在这之后的2018财年和2019财年末，苹果的净现金分别降至1226.2亿、978.4亿美元。而减少净现金的主要方式就是通过股票回购和分红。截至2020财年一季度末，苹果的资产负债率为73.7%，其中有息负债占总资产的比例为31.8%。资产负债率从2013年开始逐渐上升，这当中的主要驱动力是有息负债占总资产比例的增加。经营性负债占总资产的比例从2012财年末的32.9%提高到2020财年一季度末的41.9%，上升幅度相对较小。在这篇文章中，风云君梳理了苹果2019财年一季度以来的增长困境、背后的深层次原因、化解的办法，以及苹果的转型之路。最后再对这样一家伟大的科技公司致以敬意。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":935585706,"gmtCreate":1573684860205,"gmtModify":1704726544009,"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451302568374293","authorIdStr":"3451302568374293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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仓","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fe1cf93f1557f945952eea61de6e2e0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/263234","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3039,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3451302568374293","authorIdStr":"3451302568374293"},"content":"Call已全出，因为手贱错过1x倍收益","text":"Call已全出，因为手贱错过1x倍收益","html":"Call已全出，因为手贱错过1x倍收益"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":56095,"gmtCreate":1493303102200,"gmtModify":1704876524873,"author":{"id":"3451302568374293","authorId":"3451302568374293","name":"SULISA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79417e2de6a6ffd701168819fc525285","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3451302568374293","authorIdStr":"3451302568374293"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Advanced 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