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Long_King
I am the king of Long.
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Long_King
2021-12-17
$蔚来(NIO)$
【再谈蔚来】今年7月1日,在蔚来公布半年报高开后,我连发两贴(见图片),泣血呼吁新手卖出,我的初心是希望新手不要被割韭菜,大家赚点钱不容易。当时在阶段最高点,大概50多。不出意外,在狂热和盲目的情绪中,被很多人围攻谩骂。如今,蔚来跌到30,后续是否还能持有?我的看法依然是卖出,不要指望会有反转。未来可能会一路阴跌,连反弹都不会有。蔚来目标价:10元。
Long_King
2022-08-10
按作者的聪明逻辑,小米等已掀翻苹果多年。
掀翻特斯拉,谁能重新定义汽车之王?
Long_King
2021-07-15
换电10分钟。排队2小时
抱歉,原内容已删除
Long_King
2021-07-12
$A50指数2107(CN2107)$
今天有盼头
Long_King
2021-07-02
45是可以的
@weihang:
$NIO Inc.(NIO)$
can we bounce back to the $54 today
Long_King
2021-07-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
再次疾呼,新手千万出掉,别留。蔚来中期预期跌幅70%以上。
Long_King
2021-07-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
人生最大的悲哀就是, 当它2元的时候,看出它是一个垃圾,等他涨到50的时候,觉得他变成了宝,于是买入,指望涨到100,200,却不去想,他现在的50,是不是严重高估了。蔚来已经5500亿了,大家醒醒吧。别死都不知道怎么死的。
Long_King
2021-07-01
$蔚来(NIO)$
买它,远不如买特斯拉,趁着大涨,赶快闪
Long_King
2021-06-25
$A50指数2106(CN2106)$
来了来了
Long_King
2021-06-22
从老虎客服服务态度变化看老虎的未来
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
我一直是老虎证券的忠实用户,长期来一直都坚定看好老虎的未来。身边有朋友想玩美股的,我都推荐老虎。但近几个月,老虎客服的服务态度转变,让我开始担忧老虎的未来。老虎是一个技术性新券商,在软件或运营方面,相比传统券商有很大的体验改进,但还是有很大进步空间的。作为老虎早期的期货客户,我给老虎提过很多建议,以前每次都能得到客服妹妹的细心解答,给人的感觉很暖,让人觉得这是一家会认真倾听客户心声的公司,虽然有做的不好的地方,我都愿意陪她改进。比如早期老虎的期货行情,是对所有客户开放,并且电脑端和手机端都是实时的,这导致有时行情会严重卡顿,“掉帧”严重,常常分钟行情刷新不出来。多次反馈这个问题,客服会认真听取,并反馈给技术,说是服务器部署不够,以后会调整策略。后来不久,行情就变得好了。又有一次,我建议老虎增加K线翻转功能,这个功能是很多软件都有的,老虎技术的反馈很快,说会尽快安排上,虽然到现在都还没安排上,但是当时我觉得他们是跟进了这个问题的。所以是愿意等的。但是近来,客服的服务态度变得傲慢了起来,可能是因为老虎用户数增多了不少,不需要再在意客户的想法了。第一,现在老虎客服反应很慢,每次反馈问题,都不能得到即时答复,要隔一会再回来看消息,然后回消息后,再等一段时间。就像是以前那种写信的方式一样,有一个寄送时间。现在我基本上已经不大喜欢反馈问题了,和老虎客服说话,等待是一种折磨。第二,客服回答没有了人情味,教条式答复,对客户提的合理要求,一口回绝,不留余地。即使现在满足不了,也没有商量看以后能否解决。比如我是做期货的,经常会电脑端和手机端同步看行情,每次都要切换实时行情,很不方便。我就反馈能否给我开通两边实时行情,因为我是实盘交易客户,我的期货交易已经贡献了9K多美元的佣金,我的需求不是无
从老虎客服服务态度变化看老虎的未来
Long_King
2021-06-17
$希玛眼科(03309)$
庄家炒作的原理是:埋伏获得足够筹码,然后拉抬股价,吸引散户注意,散户刚开始是犹豫的,庄家继续拉,一直拉到大家把注意力都集中过来,唱多的研报或者新闻出现,气氛开始热烈起来,散户终于按捺不住,带钱冲入,随着股价在散户的拥护下继续冲高,庄家逐渐收割离场。现在希玛眼科还在初期阶段,因为焦点还未形成,散户还未聚拢。
Long_King
2021-06-15
$希玛眼科(03309)$
一个月后,30港币见。
Long_King
2021-06-13
$黄铜2107(HG2107)$
明天高开吗?
Long_King
2021-06-12
$恒大汽车(00708)$
敬告大家一句,早日卖出,什么时候都不晚,越早越好。千万不要指望量产,量产之日就是完蛋之时。没有量产,它还是一个梦,可以有无限遐想;一旦量产,大家就知道是个垃圾车。恒大汽车能造出个黄金车来?和特斯拉、蔚来、理想等一比,能有个**优势,谁会为恒大买单?恒大有品牌力吗?许家印有人格魅力吗?恒大团队有号召力吗?就是一个房地产暴发户。想想当年的恒大冰泉吧!记住,什么时候卖,都是对的。恒大汽车价值:0
Long_King
2021-06-01
$日元2106(JPY2106)$
好运继续来
Long_King
2021-06-01
$英镑2106(GBP2106)$
晒晒增加好运
Long_King
2021-05-31
$快手-W(01024)$
关于快手未来1年的走势分析。缓慢下跌。中途只有小幅反弹的机会。大家可以做,但是一定记得只会有小幅反弹,赚了就跑,别贪心。机构主力都出货了,只有彻底洗盘干净,才会迎来逆转。现在还早着呢。至少回调到100港币。
Long_King
2021-05-19
$微型NQ100指数2106(MNQ2106)$
获利了结,转空,技术分析666
Long_King
2021-05-18
$FTSE台湾指数2105(TWN2105)$
就是这么任性
Long_King
2021-05-18
$微型NQ100指数2106(MNQ2106)$
没事分享一下,有助于身心健康
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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10:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"掀翻特斯拉,谁能重新定义汽车之王?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153520618","media":"雪豹财经社","summary":"增长神话破灭的特斯拉,会就此跌落神坛吗?","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>曾经的无人之境,如今挤满对手</b></blockquote><p><i><b>Fast Reading</b></i></p><ul><li>比亚迪在上半年夺走了特斯拉的销冠王座,但这次逆袭的含金量没那么高。除了受疫情影响减产外,特斯拉的纯电动车销量仍超过比亚迪20多万辆,均价也远高于比亚迪。在正面战场,比亚迪还没有战胜特斯拉。</li><li>漫长的百年汽车发展史中,发动机、变速箱和底盘的“三大件”,是定义传统燃油车优劣的黄金标准,它们决定了汽车的动力、驾驶感受和乘坐体验。彼时,汽车还是纯粹的代步工具,销量和利润是衡量车企成色的黄金标准。</li><li>新一代汽车之王,除了销量和利润外,还应具备良好的软硬件结合能力、敏锐的市场感知能力和营销能力。车企竞争趋势正从制造属性转向科技属性。销量从不是撑起特斯拉市梦率的武器,变革与想象力才是它身上最性感的标签。</li></ul><p>8月8日,百度创始人、董事长兼首席执行官李彦宏在一个视频演讲中表示,到2030年,没有自动驾驶能力的电动车,将完全没有竞争力。他还强调,“就自动驾驶技术而言,(百度旗下)集度将领先特斯拉一代。”</p><p>这已经不是特斯拉第一次被“踩”。事实上,特斯拉稳坐4年的电动汽车铁王座,裂缝已经越来越大。</p><p>全球电动车销冠已被比亚迪夺走,二季度财报又写满了“下降”,面对马斯克喊出的150万辆交付目标,市场质疑声四起。产能艰难爬坡的内忧尚未解决,竞争对手虎视眈眈的外患又日益逼近。</p><p>增长神话破灭的特斯拉,会就此跌落神坛吗?在它之后,谁将重新定义汽车之王?</p><p><b>狂欢休矣</b></p><p>不久前,新能源汽车2022年上半年销量出炉,比亚迪以64.79万辆的成绩超过特斯拉(56.47万辆),夺得全球电动车销冠宝座。一时间群情振奋,但热情很快消散。</p><p>毕竟,这个让整个汽车圈掀起狂欢和争议的“逆袭”,含金量并不高。</p><p>特斯拉王座旁落不容忽视的原因之一,是“天时”导致的产能下降。受疫情影响,从3月底开始计算,特斯拉上海工厂至少停产22天,这使特斯拉产量损失超过4万辆,并在全球范围的特斯拉供应链引发了蝴蝶效应。柏林工厂使用的传统电池需要仰仗上海工厂的运送,但港口停运导致6月柏林工厂周产能仅1000辆,为原定计划的1/10。</p><p>若拆解销量构成,比亚迪的混动和纯电车型基本各占一半,特斯拉则完全为纯电车型。若仅以纯电动车销量对比,今年上半年,比亚迪交付32.3万辆,与特斯拉的56.47万辆相比,差距超过24万辆。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/901d5a152d699374d7d97afd157e3dc9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"889\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>推动比亚迪销量增长的主要引擎仍然是混动车型,上半年同比增长454.22%,远高于纯电车型246.23%的增速。比亚迪董事长王传福将混动车型视为燃油车向纯电动车的过渡,而在纯电领域,特斯拉仍占据绝对优势。</p><p>更重要的是,在特斯拉的中高端价格区间,二者虽然摩擦不断,但从未有过正面对抗。</p><p>目前,为特斯拉贡献超九成销量的车型是Model 3与Model Y,定价区间为27.99万~41.79万元。2022年Q1,比亚迪的平均销售价格(ASP)为15.8万元,远低于特斯拉。</p><p>正是由于ASP不同,两家车企在利润上的差距十分明显。特斯拉Q2净利润在环比下降了32%之后,仍有22.59亿美元(约合152.7亿元人民币);比亚迪预计Q2净利润环比增长145%~245%,最高达到27.92亿元,仍远低于特斯拉。</p><p>在某种程度上,这是由于二者的车型战略布局迥异。</p><p>特斯拉的路线是高举低打,先以售价过百万元的Model S与Model X打品牌,再推出中高端走量车型Model 3和Model Y。比亚迪则采取自下而上的定价策略,10万元起步的车型占据主流,汉和海豹是最近才推出的中高端车型。</p><p>在天时地利的影响下打赢一场局部战役,还远不足以让比亚迪锁定胜局。特斯拉走到全球最高市值车企的位置,也从来不是只靠销量。</p><p><b>市梦率背后</b></p><p>带着科技和颠覆的标签,特斯拉开启了汽车发展史上新的一页。虽然它的销量仍然远不敌传统巨头,但已是投资者眼中冉冉升起的新星。</p><p>截至美股7月26日收盘,特斯拉市值8343亿美元,稳居全球车企第一,超过第二至第十名车企市值之和。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5208fd8025101d49e82f413459e9cccd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"920\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>排名第二的丰田在2021年卖出了1050万辆新车,夺得全球销冠,销量是特斯拉的11倍还多,但市值却只有特斯拉的1/4。2020年6月,特斯拉首次超越传统巨头成为全球市值最高车企时,销量只有丰田的1/20。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6384f3e2a0a3222f6d47204b83605a29\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"889\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>不靠销量,特斯拉靠什么撑起了8000亿美元的市值?</p><p>摩根士丹利在近期一份报告中介绍了对特斯拉的估值模型。报告认为,特斯拉的目标市值为1.34万亿美元,其中互联网业务价值3500亿美元,约占总估值的26%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1000c2503963937fc826fdeaa2bddc3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2012年,特斯拉在Model S上首次搭载了整车OTA(空中下载技术),通过OTA升级,特斯拉可以提升续航、最高速度、乘坐舒适度等。OTA的出现,让特斯拉构建了软硬件结合的运营服务体系,软件收入成了新的掘金点。</p><p>换句话说,特斯拉改变了传统车企只靠终端和售后的盈利模式。</p><p>就像苹果凭借可拓展应用的iOS系统革新了传统手机,特斯拉也借助整车OTA改变了汽车生态,将传统汽车带入智能化时代。在特斯拉之后,“用软件定义汽车”逐渐成为业界共识。</p><p>“特斯拉应当被当做是科技型企业,与传统汽车公司几乎没有任何关系。”马斯克如是定位特斯拉。</p><p>2020年,华尔街著名证券分析师Adam Jonas曾表示,为了评估特斯拉企业价值,负责人由汽车行业分析师换成了科技行业分析师。</p><p>特斯拉所呈现的高毛利率和超高的利润率成长,也的确更接近科技公司,而非传统车企。2022Q1,特斯拉的毛利率为32.9%,远超传统车企。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e157a59298811b0e5a66c1c1ca4a4122\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"972\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>过去数年来,特斯拉的净利润以三位数增速猛增,远高于传统车企,更接近初创型科技公司。目前,特斯拉的盈利能力在新造车企业中一枝独秀,单季度盈利甚至已接近全球最赚钱的车企丰田。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c06764536806e360986307a3cc81152f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"889\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这些在财报上狂奔的数据,撑起了特斯拉的高市值,也让它拥有了重新定义“汽车之王”的权力。作为一家科技公司,变革和想象力,无疑是特斯拉在市场和分析师眼中最性感的标签。</p><p>但如今,面对虎视眈眈的对手,特斯拉的王座裂缝已现。在更长远的未来,谁将重新定义汽车之王?</p><p><b>权力之战</b></p><p>漫长的百年汽车发展史中,发动机、变速箱和底盘的“三大件”,曾是定义传统燃油车优劣的黄金标准,它们决定了汽车的动力、驾驶感受和乘坐体验。</p><p>彼时,汽车还是纯粹的代步工具,销量和利润是衡量车企“成色”的黄金标准。</p><p>2008年之前,美系三巨头福特、通用和克莱斯勒轮流霸占汽车之王的宝座,长达70余年。2008年次贷危机,底特律三巨头相继遭到重创,新的汽车之王争夺战在德国大众和日本丰田之间打响。</p><p>这场争锋持续了十几年,丰田逐渐占了上风,成功摘夺桂冠。2020年和2021年,丰田凭借超千万的销量问鼎,盈利能力在众多车企中同样稳居前列,2021年净利润是大众的近1.5倍。</p><p>直到马斯克开着特斯拉闯入公众视线,汽车工业才正式驶入新能源和智能时代。曾经的三大件被新的核心取代——由电机、电池、电控组成的三电系统,它们服务于更高级别的自动驾驶、智能座舱等智能化设施。</p><p>这意味着,汽车之王的定义也将被重构。</p><p>富途投研对雪豹财经社表示,目前车企的竞争趋势是从制造属性转向科技属性。过去,供应体系把控能力是整车厂竞争的核心因素,但随着自动驾驶技术进步,车企智能化建设能力的重要性愈发凸显。</p><p>富途投研认为,拥有良好的软硬件结合能力、感知市场的需求能力和营销能力,将成为未来汽车行业龙头的关键指标。</p><p>从这3个关键点来看,特斯拉在过去10年凭借先发优势跑在前面,但随着时间推移和强劲对手的持续加入,未来它还能坐稳铁王座吗?</p><p>特斯拉在超算芯片和自动驾驶系统上优势明显。但随着蔚小理新车的发布,国内的造车新势力愈发注重算力,都搭载了英伟达最新的高算力芯片。仅从芯片算力上看,特斯拉已经落后。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4249b0b95f3568614ef5cad91992e6f4\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>良好的感知市场需求的能力,部分体现在产品定位上,这也直接影响了车企未来的销量。目前,特斯拉的走量车型为Model 3和Model Y,均为中高端车型。早在2020年,马斯克便宣布要推出售价更低的Model 2,但至今仍未落地,马斯克也表示2022年不会再推出任何新车型。</p><p>这意味着,车型矩阵薄弱和推新速度缓慢,或将限制特斯拉的销量天花板。</p><p>相比之下,从大众、丰田到此次销量超越特斯拉的比亚迪,均以不同定价级别的产品矩阵,抢占更广阔的市场。以丰田为例,热卖了57年、售价10万元左右的卡罗拉是全球最畅销的车型,截至2021年已卖出超5000万辆。比亚迪每年都推出十余款不同价位的车型,密集“下饺子”。</p><p>造车新势力也在积极拓展产品矩阵。据36氪报道,蔚来将推出第三个子品牌,瞄准20万元以下的中低端市场,价格或下探至10万元。理想也计划推出20万元左右的车型。</p><p>在营销层面,特斯拉目前几乎没有营销支出,全靠超级网红马斯克的一言一行带动全球目光,但此举有利有弊,当一个企业与创始人形象深度捆绑,往往是不成熟的表现。而传承百年的传统车企,往往就像一台在永不停歇转动的巨大机器,历经数代掌门人更迭仍能如常运转。</p><p>在以金钱、技术、野心为燃料的引擎推动下,新的汽车之王拉力赛仍在继续。资本市场依旧风云变幻,但在百年工业根基的汽车市场,特斯拉想要彻底战胜实力雄厚、野心勃勃的对手们,恐怕没那么容易。更何况,面对新老车企的围追堵截,特斯拉在过去10年领跑的优势正在被逐渐消解。</p><p>曾经的无人之境,如今挤满了对手。谁会是新一代的汽车之王?</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1634697401643","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n掀翻特斯拉,谁能重新定义汽车之王?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-09 10:40 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Jp57jxstO9IyBBVSTtg2mw><strong>雪豹财经社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>曾经的无人之境,如今挤满对手Fast Reading比亚迪在上半年夺走了特斯拉的销冠王座,但这次逆袭的含金量没那么高。除了受疫情影响减产外,特斯拉的纯电动车销量仍超过比亚迪20多万辆,均价也远高于比亚迪。在正面战场,比亚迪还没有战胜特斯拉。漫长的百年汽车发展史中,发动机、变速箱和底盘的“三大件”,是定义传统燃油车优劣的黄金标准,它们决定了汽车的动力、驾驶感受和乘坐体验。彼时,汽车还是纯粹的代步工具...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Jp57jxstO9IyBBVSTtg2mw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a530a2a17bc301499c9e286759c5657e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Jp57jxstO9IyBBVSTtg2mw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153520618","content_text":"曾经的无人之境,如今挤满对手Fast Reading比亚迪在上半年夺走了特斯拉的销冠王座,但这次逆袭的含金量没那么高。除了受疫情影响减产外,特斯拉的纯电动车销量仍超过比亚迪20多万辆,均价也远高于比亚迪。在正面战场,比亚迪还没有战胜特斯拉。漫长的百年汽车发展史中,发动机、变速箱和底盘的“三大件”,是定义传统燃油车优劣的黄金标准,它们决定了汽车的动力、驾驶感受和乘坐体验。彼时,汽车还是纯粹的代步工具,销量和利润是衡量车企成色的黄金标准。新一代汽车之王,除了销量和利润外,还应具备良好的软硬件结合能力、敏锐的市场感知能力和营销能力。车企竞争趋势正从制造属性转向科技属性。销量从不是撑起特斯拉市梦率的武器,变革与想象力才是它身上最性感的标签。8月8日,百度创始人、董事长兼首席执行官李彦宏在一个视频演讲中表示,到2030年,没有自动驾驶能力的电动车,将完全没有竞争力。他还强调,“就自动驾驶技术而言,(百度旗下)集度将领先特斯拉一代。”这已经不是特斯拉第一次被“踩”。事实上,特斯拉稳坐4年的电动汽车铁王座,裂缝已经越来越大。全球电动车销冠已被比亚迪夺走,二季度财报又写满了“下降”,面对马斯克喊出的150万辆交付目标,市场质疑声四起。产能艰难爬坡的内忧尚未解决,竞争对手虎视眈眈的外患又日益逼近。增长神话破灭的特斯拉,会就此跌落神坛吗?在它之后,谁将重新定义汽车之王?狂欢休矣不久前,新能源汽车2022年上半年销量出炉,比亚迪以64.79万辆的成绩超过特斯拉(56.47万辆),夺得全球电动车销冠宝座。一时间群情振奋,但热情很快消散。毕竟,这个让整个汽车圈掀起狂欢和争议的“逆袭”,含金量并不高。特斯拉王座旁落不容忽视的原因之一,是“天时”导致的产能下降。受疫情影响,从3月底开始计算,特斯拉上海工厂至少停产22天,这使特斯拉产量损失超过4万辆,并在全球范围的特斯拉供应链引发了蝴蝶效应。柏林工厂使用的传统电池需要仰仗上海工厂的运送,但港口停运导致6月柏林工厂周产能仅1000辆,为原定计划的1/10。若拆解销量构成,比亚迪的混动和纯电车型基本各占一半,特斯拉则完全为纯电车型。若仅以纯电动车销量对比,今年上半年,比亚迪交付32.3万辆,与特斯拉的56.47万辆相比,差距超过24万辆。推动比亚迪销量增长的主要引擎仍然是混动车型,上半年同比增长454.22%,远高于纯电车型246.23%的增速。比亚迪董事长王传福将混动车型视为燃油车向纯电动车的过渡,而在纯电领域,特斯拉仍占据绝对优势。更重要的是,在特斯拉的中高端价格区间,二者虽然摩擦不断,但从未有过正面对抗。目前,为特斯拉贡献超九成销量的车型是Model 3与Model Y,定价区间为27.99万~41.79万元。2022年Q1,比亚迪的平均销售价格(ASP)为15.8万元,远低于特斯拉。正是由于ASP不同,两家车企在利润上的差距十分明显。特斯拉Q2净利润在环比下降了32%之后,仍有22.59亿美元(约合152.7亿元人民币);比亚迪预计Q2净利润环比增长145%~245%,最高达到27.92亿元,仍远低于特斯拉。在某种程度上,这是由于二者的车型战略布局迥异。特斯拉的路线是高举低打,先以售价过百万元的Model S与Model X打品牌,再推出中高端走量车型Model 3和Model Y。比亚迪则采取自下而上的定价策略,10万元起步的车型占据主流,汉和海豹是最近才推出的中高端车型。在天时地利的影响下打赢一场局部战役,还远不足以让比亚迪锁定胜局。特斯拉走到全球最高市值车企的位置,也从来不是只靠销量。市梦率背后带着科技和颠覆的标签,特斯拉开启了汽车发展史上新的一页。虽然它的销量仍然远不敌传统巨头,但已是投资者眼中冉冉升起的新星。截至美股7月26日收盘,特斯拉市值8343亿美元,稳居全球车企第一,超过第二至第十名车企市值之和。排名第二的丰田在2021年卖出了1050万辆新车,夺得全球销冠,销量是特斯拉的11倍还多,但市值却只有特斯拉的1/4。2020年6月,特斯拉首次超越传统巨头成为全球市值最高车企时,销量只有丰田的1/20。不靠销量,特斯拉靠什么撑起了8000亿美元的市值?摩根士丹利在近期一份报告中介绍了对特斯拉的估值模型。报告认为,特斯拉的目标市值为1.34万亿美元,其中互联网业务价值3500亿美元,约占总估值的26%。2012年,特斯拉在Model S上首次搭载了整车OTA(空中下载技术),通过OTA升级,特斯拉可以提升续航、最高速度、乘坐舒适度等。OTA的出现,让特斯拉构建了软硬件结合的运营服务体系,软件收入成了新的掘金点。换句话说,特斯拉改变了传统车企只靠终端和售后的盈利模式。就像苹果凭借可拓展应用的iOS系统革新了传统手机,特斯拉也借助整车OTA改变了汽车生态,将传统汽车带入智能化时代。在特斯拉之后,“用软件定义汽车”逐渐成为业界共识。“特斯拉应当被当做是科技型企业,与传统汽车公司几乎没有任何关系。”马斯克如是定位特斯拉。2020年,华尔街著名证券分析师Adam Jonas曾表示,为了评估特斯拉企业价值,负责人由汽车行业分析师换成了科技行业分析师。特斯拉所呈现的高毛利率和超高的利润率成长,也的确更接近科技公司,而非传统车企。2022Q1,特斯拉的毛利率为32.9%,远超传统车企。过去数年来,特斯拉的净利润以三位数增速猛增,远高于传统车企,更接近初创型科技公司。目前,特斯拉的盈利能力在新造车企业中一枝独秀,单季度盈利甚至已接近全球最赚钱的车企丰田。这些在财报上狂奔的数据,撑起了特斯拉的高市值,也让它拥有了重新定义“汽车之王”的权力。作为一家科技公司,变革和想象力,无疑是特斯拉在市场和分析师眼中最性感的标签。但如今,面对虎视眈眈的对手,特斯拉的王座裂缝已现。在更长远的未来,谁将重新定义汽车之王?权力之战漫长的百年汽车发展史中,发动机、变速箱和底盘的“三大件”,曾是定义传统燃油车优劣的黄金标准,它们决定了汽车的动力、驾驶感受和乘坐体验。彼时,汽车还是纯粹的代步工具,销量和利润是衡量车企“成色”的黄金标准。2008年之前,美系三巨头福特、通用和克莱斯勒轮流霸占汽车之王的宝座,长达70余年。2008年次贷危机,底特律三巨头相继遭到重创,新的汽车之王争夺战在德国大众和日本丰田之间打响。这场争锋持续了十几年,丰田逐渐占了上风,成功摘夺桂冠。2020年和2021年,丰田凭借超千万的销量问鼎,盈利能力在众多车企中同样稳居前列,2021年净利润是大众的近1.5倍。直到马斯克开着特斯拉闯入公众视线,汽车工业才正式驶入新能源和智能时代。曾经的三大件被新的核心取代——由电机、电池、电控组成的三电系统,它们服务于更高级别的自动驾驶、智能座舱等智能化设施。这意味着,汽车之王的定义也将被重构。富途投研对雪豹财经社表示,目前车企的竞争趋势是从制造属性转向科技属性。过去,供应体系把控能力是整车厂竞争的核心因素,但随着自动驾驶技术进步,车企智能化建设能力的重要性愈发凸显。富途投研认为,拥有良好的软硬件结合能力、感知市场的需求能力和营销能力,将成为未来汽车行业龙头的关键指标。从这3个关键点来看,特斯拉在过去10年凭借先发优势跑在前面,但随着时间推移和强劲对手的持续加入,未来它还能坐稳铁王座吗?特斯拉在超算芯片和自动驾驶系统上优势明显。但随着蔚小理新车的发布,国内的造车新势力愈发注重算力,都搭载了英伟达最新的高算力芯片。仅从芯片算力上看,特斯拉已经落后。良好的感知市场需求的能力,部分体现在产品定位上,这也直接影响了车企未来的销量。目前,特斯拉的走量车型为Model 3和Model Y,均为中高端车型。早在2020年,马斯克便宣布要推出售价更低的Model 2,但至今仍未落地,马斯克也表示2022年不会再推出任何新车型。这意味着,车型矩阵薄弱和推新速度缓慢,或将限制特斯拉的销量天花板。相比之下,从大众、丰田到此次销量超越特斯拉的比亚迪,均以不同定价级别的产品矩阵,抢占更广阔的市场。以丰田为例,热卖了57年、售价10万元左右的卡罗拉是全球最畅销的车型,截至2021年已卖出超5000万辆。比亚迪每年都推出十余款不同价位的车型,密集“下饺子”。造车新势力也在积极拓展产品矩阵。据36氪报道,蔚来将推出第三个子品牌,瞄准20万元以下的中低端市场,价格或下探至10万元。理想也计划推出20万元左右的车型。在营销层面,特斯拉目前几乎没有营销支出,全靠超级网红马斯克的一言一行带动全球目光,但此举有利有弊,当一个企业与创始人形象深度捆绑,往往是不成熟的表现。而传承百年的传统车企,往往就像一台在永不停歇转动的巨大机器,历经数代掌门人更迭仍能如常运转。在以金钱、技术、野心为燃料的引擎推动下,新的汽车之王拉力赛仍在继续。资本市场依旧风云变幻,但在百年工业根基的汽车市场,特斯拉想要彻底战胜实力雄厚、野心勃勃的对手们,恐怕没那么容易。更何况,面对新老车企的围追堵截,特斯拉在过去10年领跑的优势正在被逐渐消解。曾经的无人之境,如今挤满了对手。谁会是新一代的汽车之王?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":144425483,"gmtCreate":1626311283142,"gmtModify":1626311283142,"author":{"id":"3443780298988498","authorId":"3443780298988498","name":"Long_King","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4b295aade0d119e6e1501c6cad4865","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443780298988498","idStr":"3443780298988498"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"换电10分钟。排队2小时","listText":"换电10分钟。排队2小时","text":"换电10分钟。排队2小时","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144425483","repostId":"1150248058","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":146913924,"gmtCreate":1626048959168,"gmtModify":1626048959168,"author":{"id":"3443780298988498","authorId":"3443780298988498","name":"Long_King","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4b295aade0d119e6e1501c6cad4865","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443780298988498","idStr":"3443780298988498"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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咱们希玛眼科这么冷清吗?看到大家都不买,我就放心持有了。希玛眼科,即将开启一波趋势性上涨。第一目标价,8.5元,突破后,第二目标价:20元,最后最高到40左右,本轮趋势结束。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384242196","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3516916477871414","authorId":"3516916477871414","name":"虎不威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bcd8ea76531d8087755de84618b3a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3516916477871414","idStr":"3516916477871414"},"content":"亏得好惨啊,这个垃圾,还有百分二十下跌空间,坐好了","text":"亏得好惨啊,这个垃圾,还有百分二十下跌空间,坐好了","html":"亏得好惨啊,这个垃圾,还有百分二十下跌空间,坐好了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":129580783,"gmtCreate":1624377595042,"gmtModify":1624417747917,"author":{"id":"3443780298988498","authorId":"3443780298988498","name":"Long_King","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4b295aade0d119e6e1501c6cad4865","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443780298988498","idStr":"3443780298988498"},"themes":[],"title":"从老虎客服服务态度变化看老虎的未来","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/MNQ2103\">$微型NQ100指数2103(MNQ2103)$ </a>就喜欢期货","text":"$微型NQ100指数2103(MNQ2103)$ 就喜欢期货","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e75965c3bcd4f5a7b571b413cd35318","width":"750","height":"1224"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360593644","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"163003385102070","authorId":"163003385102070","name":"天外天","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43cae6c8f3854b211670f18feb936481","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"163003385102070","idStr":"163003385102070"},"content":"纳指只敢买涨不敢买跌。。","text":"纳指只敢买涨不敢买跌。。","html":"纳指只敢买涨不敢买跌。。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110727479,"gmtCreate":1622505639091,"gmtModify":1622505639091,"author":{"id":"3443780298988498","authorId":"3443780298988498","name":"Long_King","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb4b295aade0d119e6e1501c6cad4865","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3443780298988498","idStr":"3443780298988498"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GBP2106\">$英镑2106(GBP2106)$ </a>晒晒增加好运","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GBP2106\">$英镑2106(GBP2106)$ </a>晒晒增加好运","text":"$英镑2106(GBP2106)$ 晒晒增加好运","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3a5510fbc66a06e3c884cc24b7ba572","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110727479","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}