KEINS的个人主页 - 老虎社区

KEINS

KEINS

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：0

6关注

56粉丝

1主题

0勋章

07-11

经典自家股票[开心]

纳指ETF被疯炒！到底有没有泡沫？

07-06

庄股？？呵呵，你当这是a股呢

06-05

你提到了华为我才知道你的屁股做在哪里，装什么外宾？？说了半天你还是不敢做空苹果

Apple: Does Not Create Blue Oceans Anymore

01-31

Replying to @夜流沙:？？？？？？？//@夜流沙:格力的估值太低了，主要是大家对a股已经绝望了。只要gjd不出手，a股立马变成一潭死水。也许a股在酝酿一个五十年难遇的大牛市吧[笑哭]

2023-06-29

华为5.5哈哈笑死

A股盘前播报 | 5.5G明年商用！华为将发布端到端产品 “首届脑机接口大会”来了专家看好未来应用空间

2023-06-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 一直以为。鲍威尔的讲话会导致一波下跌，结果没用，这个**鲍威尔，这时候不灵了呢

2023-06-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 快跑快跑快跑

2023-06-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 大家快跑啊，鲍威尔讲话了，说会出现更多紧缩力量，这么鹰的讲话，大盘还涨？？出现了超买，快跑！！快跑，求你们了快跑！！

2023-06-28

讲话不管用了呢？？都紧缩了。大盘还涨，不给鲍威尔面子啊。。。市场过热了，快跑，出现了超买，快跑

美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预计会出现更多的紧缩力量。

2023-06-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这还是有利空，没利空不得起飞啊

2023-06-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 压单必破。

2023-06-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天必会杀空单

2023-06-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 价位太低，卖的人不愿意卖，买的人呢有点儿害怕，简直就没有成交量了。稍微来点儿资金就能拉起来。

2023-06-28

哈哈

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-03-29

有种你放学别走？？？多多就这么回应吗[开心] [开心] [开心]

几十家品牌店遭遇最夸张“炸店”事件？拼多多小二怒斥：请你站到阳光下来

2023-03-23

笑死了哈哈，

美国银行危机远未结束

2022-12-29

$苹果(AAPL)$ 没想到。。。。。

2022-12-15

$SG人民币主连 2212(UCmain)$ 厉害试，就是不上7，死要面子活受罪

2022-12-15

$拼多多(PDD)$ 会玩啊，骗了不少人，牛逼

2022-12-15

$拼多多(PDD)$ 牛逼，但我没看懂

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3440540550401156,"uuid":"3440540550401156","gmtCreate":1502172944276,"gmtModify":1602676480370,"name":"KEINS","pinyin":"keins","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":56,"headSize":6,"tweetSize":288,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.90%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.02.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.27%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"0","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":326260486537360,"gmtCreate":1720655017774,"gmtModify":1720655019704,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"经典自家股票[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"经典自家股票[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"经典自家股票[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326260486537360","repostId":"2449757392","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2449757392","pubTimestamp":1720353281,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2449757392?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-07 19:54","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"纳指ETF被疯炒！到底有没有泡沫？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2449757392","media":"格隆汇","summary":"如果炒股能赚钱，高溢价又何妨？","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4d460-d1e553c7-9b99-4905-afe4-1e6d78c84ec7.png?guru_height=627&amp;guru_width=938\"/></p><p><strong></strong><span><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-d7cf11f0-136d-486f-b61c-e661b097fbb6.jpg?guru_height=44&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></span></p><p><span>最近，有券商发信息给股民提示纳指</span><span>ETF</span><span>溢价率太高建议理性投资，却被股民回复别多管闲事的事件，把股民们整笑了。</span></p><p><span>这样的回复，让人感到好笑，更让感到心酸。</span></p><p><span>及时提醒风险是券商的本职工作，并没有错；</span></p><p><span>选择高溢价跨境ETF的股民，也没有错。</span></p><p><span>今年到现在，美股纳指涨了22%、日股涨了22%、印度股涨了11%，甚至我们的宝岛股市都涨了31%。但大A呢？创板、创业板都跌了十几个点，有众多大蓝筹撑着的上证也跌了1%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/f717f-943a4f29-a174-45c0-89c8-0f5548f8aa88.jpg?guru_height=1997&amp;guru_width=820\"/></p><p><span><span>天下攘攘，皆为利来，</span>一边是连续几年跌跌不休的国内股市，一边是涨势汹汹的境外市场，如</span><span>果股民有得选，必然选择能赚钱的一边。</span></p><p><span>毕竟股民拿钱来炒股，就是以赚钱为目的，不是来做慈善的。</span></p><p><span>那么，被不断警示高溢价的跨境ETF，真的是溢价过高了吗？</span></p><p><span>或许并不见得。</span></p><p><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></strong></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">超400次风险警示，难阻资金炒疯</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>截至7月5日，剔除港股市场的跨境ETF产品中靠前的<span>年内收益大多数</span>都超过了25%，<span>基本上</span>比国内的头部ETF产品都超出10个点的距离。</span></strong></p><p><span>拿差的对比，跟踪其他国家资产的ETF产品最差的也大概有10个点收益，对比之下，国内及港股的ETF收益率最差的甚至跌了30%以上。</span></p><p><span>差距极为悬殊。</span></p><p><span>在这批跨境ETF中，跟踪美股资产的跨境ETF表现尤为亮眼，尤其是纳指科技ETF，截至7月5日其年内累计收益达到了53.33%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/712ae-7af8b594-ceaa-4456-8273-5a9111b4d8f6.png?guru_height=874&amp;guru_width=879\"/></p><p><span>这些产品的交易有多疯狂？</span></p><p><span>比如纳指科技ETF，今年1-6月的成交额分别为99.45亿元、130.61亿元、253.47亿元、137.71亿元、159.09亿元、295.09亿元。换手率方面，今年1-6月以及7月5个交易日分别为141.85%、169.67%、297.12%、171.92%、185.10%、292.84%和71.45%。</span></p><p><span>在同时，这些产品的溢价率也不断走高，大幅偏离基金净值，<strong>纳指科技ETF最新的溢价率甚至达到了12.63%。</strong></span></p><p><span>它们也因此成为了被券商频频发布警示公告的重点。据报道，今年以来已有30余只QDII产品合计发布了超400次的溢价风险提示公告，其中景顺长城纳斯达克科技市值加权ETF、华夏野村日经225ETF和易方达原油A人民币3只产品都发布了超60次提示公告。</span></p><p><span>其中最高溢价的纳指科技ETF<strong>自2月份以来已发布了</strong><strong>80多份提示公告</strong>。</span></p><p><span>鉴于此，目前不少的QDII产品已经被限购，Wind数据显示，目前已有超过130只QDII产品处于“暂停申购”甚至“暂停大额申购”的状态，其中不少产品的单日大额申购限额在1万元以下。</span></p><p><span>同时为了遏制过度炒作行为，交易所已经宣布对这些产品的异常交易行为进行从严认定，<strong>并视情况从重采取列为重点监控账户、暂停账户交易、限制账户交易、认定为不合格投资者等自律管理措施。</strong></span></p><p><span>这些产品，为什么会出现如此高的溢价？</span></p><p><span>一方面，国家外汇管理局对QDII投资审批有额度限制，这个规模并不是任意增长的，目前在几十家有额度的基金公司中，只有6家额度超过30亿美元，其中最高的不超过77.3亿美元。</span></p><p><span>这点规模，相对国内庞大的投资者群体来说，根本不够分。</span></p><p><span>另一方面，它们的业绩确实是在不断创新高，形成显著的赚钱效应，不断吸引股民和投资机构入场追捧。</span></p><p><span>而投资者的疯狂买入会导致基金公司自身外汇额度飞速耗尽，基金公司只能暂停场外QDII基金的申购，投资者只能转为买入场内的相关ETF产品，进而推高了溢价率。</span></p><p><span>这是最主要的原因。</span></p><p><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></strong></p><p><span><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">溢价过高又如何？</font></strong></span></p><p><span>为什么这些跨境ETF会出现溢价？</span></p><p><strong><span>根本原因就是股民们看好它们的未来预期，愿意给出更高的溢价。</span></strong></p><p><span>只要觉得未来还能涨，现在溢价再高都不是个事儿。</span></p><p><span>比如飞天茅台，出厂价1169，指导价1499，但线下黄牛依然愿意溢价上千去收购，因为他们知道终端价还能卖出更高的价格，并且不愁卖不出。</span></p><p><span>这个逻辑和炒股看PE也是一样的，市场越看好一只股票的未来成长预期，给出的溢价就越高。</span></p><p><span>之前一些所谓的赛道股，能获得几百上千倍的PE，一样止不住资金的疯狂炒作。</span></p><p><span>虽然跨境ETF对标的是一揽子国外的股票，并且等于在这一揽子股票自己的PE上再做一定的溢价。</span></p><p><span>但这个溢价真算高吗？</span></p><p><span>并不见得。以跟踪美国50ETF为例：</span></p><p><span>首先，这些ETF重仓的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、META、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等这些头部巨头，这些巨头尽管在过去几年已经出现了数倍的估值增长，但即使如此其本身的PE相对过往情况其实也并不算太高。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c5e60-58ee12e2-b44e-4a6a-b2d8-9e67e6a192ed.png?guru_height=864&amp;guru_width=1050\"/></p><p><span>这背后，是它们一直以来展现出的持续稳定且较高的业绩增长，一些巨头甚至连续出现翻倍式的可怕增长。</span></p><p><span>有些巨头，比如苹果、亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>等业绩增速可能不算高，但也强过国内的茅台。而它们除了业绩稳健，每年还用非常庞大的资金进行分红或回购来回馈投资者，拉高资本投资回报率。</span></p><p><strong><span>苹果公司在过去一直都是高投资回报的典范，其去年度的ROE高达171.95%，资本回报率（ROIC）也有56.4%，还批准了高达1100亿美元的回购计划，这在国内股市来说根本就不可想象。</span></strong></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1db17-16c1a255-a238-4152-9904-ade797f30a12.png?guru_height=656&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></p><p><span>这些世界级的巨头已经没有任何力量能“杀死”它们，它们在过去呈现出的强劲表现在未来也很大概率能延续，所以即使有可能是在股市中股价出现回调，也只是调整。</span></p><p><span>那么从长期视角来看，只要这些股票的长期能上涨，股民就能从这些ETF产品价格上涨中赚到钱，买入它们的估值溢价就并非不可接受。</span></p><p><strong><span>更何况，中国内地投资者想要投资国外这些巨头几乎就不可能，场外的QDII基金和场内的ETF基金就是非常稀缺的一个小窗口，它们根本就不怕没人买，那么这类产品的稀缺性本身也会带来估值溢价。</span></strong></p><p><span>而从汇率视角来看，在汇率贬值预期下，这个溢价率同样可以被理解。</span></p><p><span>还有另外一个很重要的原因，就是这些跨境ETF是<strong>T+0交易</strong>的，对于国内投机交易情绪浓厚的股民来说，这就是堪比国内可转债一样好玩的品种。</span></p><p><span>国内的可转债品种溢价几十个点，甚至溢价翻倍，同时每日换手率翻倍的都比比皆是，相对来说，未来上涨确定性高又可以T+0的跨境ETF，溢价才几个点并不算得了什么。</span></p><p><span>也就是说，<strong>未来收益确定性+额度限制+产品稀缺性+汇率贬值预期，再加上可以“随时进出”的T+0交易机制，就注定了这些跨境ETF定然会被股民所追捧，进而出现高溢价的情况。</strong></span></p><p><span>这个溢价，会一直伴随这些产品的波动而波动，但大概率不会消失。</span></p><p><span>这些也是监管方大量发布风险提示也难以遏制的根本原因。</span></p><p><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></strong></p><p><span><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">尾声</font></strong></span></p><p><span>相信XX，定投纳指，已经成为股民交流群里自嘲的常用语了。</span></p><p><span>其实股民心里都知道，如果国内A股能真正让大多数股民赚到钱，哪怕赚得不多，也不会出现高溢价去抢购跟踪国外股票的ETF这种情况。</span></p><p><strong><span>谁不喜欢看着自家的股票能有出息呢？谁又喜欢舍近求远去买不熟悉的股票呢？</span></strong><span>（全文完）</span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纳指ETF被疯炒！到底有没有泡沫？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纳指ETF被疯炒！到底有没有泡沫？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-07 19:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/835192><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近，有券商发信息给股民提示纳指ETF溢价率太高建议理性投资，却被股民回复别多管闲事的事件，把股民们整笑了。这样的回复，让人感到好笑，更让感到心酸。及时提醒风险是券商的本职工作，并没有错；选择高溢价跨境ETF的股民，也没有错。今年到现在，美股纳指涨了22%、日股涨了22%、印度股涨了11%，甚至我们的宝岛股市都涨了31%。但大A呢？创板、创业板都跌了十几个点，有众多大蓝筹撑着的上证也跌了1%。天下...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/835192\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4d460-76cbff22-a433-4e78-aad1-8acdb3ef8024.png?guru_height=627&guru_width=938","relate_stocks":{"159509":"纳指科技","513100":"纳指ETF","513850":"美国50ETF","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","ROIC":"Retail Opportunity Investments C","BK4176":"多领域控股","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","BK4507":"流媒体概念","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","03086":"华夏纳指","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","BK4524":"宅经济概念","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/835192","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2449757392","content_text":"最近，有券商发信息给股民提示纳指ETF溢价率太高建议理性投资，却被股民回复别多管闲事的事件，把股民们整笑了。这样的回复，让人感到好笑，更让感到心酸。及时提醒风险是券商的本职工作，并没有错；选择高溢价跨境ETF的股民，也没有错。今年到现在，美股纳指涨了22%、日股涨了22%、印度股涨了11%，甚至我们的宝岛股市都涨了31%。但大A呢？创板、创业板都跌了十几个点，有众多大蓝筹撑着的上证也跌了1%。天下攘攘，皆为利来，一边是连续几年跌跌不休的国内股市，一边是涨势汹汹的境外市场，如果股民有得选，必然选择能赚钱的一边。毕竟股民拿钱来炒股，就是以赚钱为目的，不是来做慈善的。那么，被不断警示高溢价的跨境ETF，真的是溢价过高了吗？或许并不见得。01超400次风险警示，难阻资金炒疯截至7月5日，剔除港股市场的跨境ETF产品中靠前的年内收益大多数都超过了25%，基本上比国内的头部ETF产品都超出10个点的距离。拿差的对比，跟踪其他国家资产的ETF产品最差的也大概有10个点收益，对比之下，国内及港股的ETF收益率最差的甚至跌了30%以上。差距极为悬殊。在这批跨境ETF中，跟踪美股资产的跨境ETF表现尤为亮眼，尤其是纳指科技ETF，截至7月5日其年内累计收益达到了53.33%。这些产品的交易有多疯狂？比如纳指科技ETF，今年1-6月的成交额分别为99.45亿元、130.61亿元、253.47亿元、137.71亿元、159.09亿元、295.09亿元。换手率方面，今年1-6月以及7月5个交易日分别为141.85%、169.67%、297.12%、171.92%、185.10%、292.84%和71.45%。在同时，这些产品的溢价率也不断走高，大幅偏离基金净值，纳指科技ETF最新的溢价率甚至达到了12.63%。它们也因此成为了被券商频频发布警示公告的重点。据报道，今年以来已有30余只QDII产品合计发布了超400次的溢价风险提示公告，其中景顺长城纳斯达克科技市值加权ETF、华夏野村日经225ETF和易方达原油A人民币3只产品都发布了超60次提示公告。其中最高溢价的纳指科技ETF自2月份以来已发布了80多份提示公告。鉴于此，目前不少的QDII产品已经被限购，Wind数据显示，目前已有超过130只QDII产品处于“暂停申购”甚至“暂停大额申购”的状态，其中不少产品的单日大额申购限额在1万元以下。同时为了遏制过度炒作行为，交易所已经宣布对这些产品的异常交易行为进行从严认定，并视情况从重采取列为重点监控账户、暂停账户交易、限制账户交易、认定为不合格投资者等自律管理措施。这些产品，为什么会出现如此高的溢价？一方面，国家外汇管理局对QDII投资审批有额度限制，这个规模并不是任意增长的，目前在几十家有额度的基金公司中，只有6家额度超过30亿美元，其中最高的不超过77.3亿美元。这点规模，相对国内庞大的投资者群体来说，根本不够分。另一方面，它们的业绩确实是在不断创新高，形成显著的赚钱效应，不断吸引股民和投资机构入场追捧。而投资者的疯狂买入会导致基金公司自身外汇额度飞速耗尽，基金公司只能暂停场外QDII基金的申购，投资者只能转为买入场内的相关ETF产品，进而推高了溢价率。这是最主要的原因。02溢价过高又如何？为什么这些跨境ETF会出现溢价？根本原因就是股民们看好它们的未来预期，愿意给出更高的溢价。只要觉得未来还能涨，现在溢价再高都不是个事儿。比如飞天茅台，出厂价1169，指导价1499，但线下黄牛依然愿意溢价上千去收购，因为他们知道终端价还能卖出更高的价格，并且不愁卖不出。这个逻辑和炒股看PE也是一样的，市场越看好一只股票的未来成长预期，给出的溢价就越高。之前一些所谓的赛道股，能获得几百上千倍的PE，一样止不住资金的疯狂炒作。虽然跨境ETF对标的是一揽子国外的股票，并且等于在这一揽子股票自己的PE上再做一定的溢价。但这个溢价真算高吗？并不见得。以跟踪美国50ETF为例：首先，这些ETF重仓的是微软、苹果、英伟达、亚马逊、META、谷歌等这些头部巨头，这些巨头尽管在过去几年已经出现了数倍的估值增长，但即使如此其本身的PE相对过往情况其实也并不算太高。这背后，是它们一直以来展现出的持续稳定且较高的业绩增长，一些巨头甚至连续出现翻倍式的可怕增长。有些巨头，比如苹果、亚马逊、伯克希尔等业绩增速可能不算高，但也强过国内的茅台。而它们除了业绩稳健，每年还用非常庞大的资金进行分红或回购来回馈投资者，拉高资本投资回报率。苹果公司在过去一直都是高投资回报的典范，其去年度的ROE高达171.95%，资本回报率（ROIC）也有56.4%，还批准了高达1100亿美元的回购计划，这在国内股市来说根本就不可想象。这些世界级的巨头已经没有任何力量能“杀死”它们，它们在过去呈现出的强劲表现在未来也很大概率能延续，所以即使有可能是在股市中股价出现回调，也只是调整。那么从长期视角来看，只要这些股票的长期能上涨，股民就能从这些ETF产品价格上涨中赚到钱，买入它们的估值溢价就并非不可接受。更何况，中国内地投资者想要投资国外这些巨头几乎就不可能，场外的QDII基金和场内的ETF基金就是非常稀缺的一个小窗口，它们根本就不怕没人买，那么这类产品的稀缺性本身也会带来估值溢价。而从汇率视角来看，在汇率贬值预期下，这个溢价率同样可以被理解。还有另外一个很重要的原因，就是这些跨境ETF是T+0交易的，对于国内投机交易情绪浓厚的股民来说，这就是堪比国内可转债一样好玩的品种。国内的可转债品种溢价几十个点，甚至溢价翻倍，同时每日换手率翻倍的都比比皆是，相对来说，未来上涨确定性高又可以T+0的跨境ETF，溢价才几个点并不算得了什么。也就是说，未来收益确定性+额度限制+产品稀缺性+汇率贬值预期，再加上可以“随时进出”的T+0交易机制，就注定了这些跨境ETF定然会被股民所追捧，进而出现高溢价的情况。这个溢价，会一直伴随这些产品的波动而波动，但大概率不会消失。这些也是监管方大量发布风险提示也难以遏制的根本原因。03尾声相信XX，定投纳指，已经成为股民交流群里自嘲的常用语了。其实股民心里都知道，如果国内A股能真正让大多数股民赚到钱，哪怕赚得不多，也不会出现高溢价去抢购跟踪国外股票的ETF这种情况。谁不喜欢看着自家的股票能有出息呢？谁又喜欢舍近求远去买不熟悉的股票呢？（全文完）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324345995321608,"gmtCreate":1720215092594,"gmtModify":1720215094686,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"庄股？？呵呵，你当这是a股呢","listText":"庄股？？呵呵，你当这是a股呢","text":"庄股？？呵呵，你当这是a股呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324345995321608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313454696079472,"gmtCreate":1717542696513,"gmtModify":1717542698597,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你提到了华为我才知道你的屁股做在哪里，装什么外宾？？说了半天你还是不敢做空苹果","listText":"你提到了华为我才知道你的屁股做在哪里，装什么外宾？？说了半天你还是不敢做空苹果","text":"你提到了华为我才知道你的屁股做在哪里，装什么外宾？？说了半天你还是不敢做空苹果","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313454696079472","repostId":"2440541174","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2440541174","pubTimestamp":1717479400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2440541174?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-04 13:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Does Not Create Blue Oceans Anymore","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2440541174","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple Inc.'s recent buyback signals that the company cannot offer shareholders anything beyond this. Apple created several Blue Oceans during the Steve Jobs era, but delivered nothing special after he","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Apple Inc.&#39;s recent buyback signals that the company cannot offer shareholders anything beyond this. Apple created several Blue Oceans during the Steve Jobs era, but delivered nothing special after he left.</p></li><li><p>Chinese competitors pose threats not only in smartphones but also in tablets.</p></li><li><p>The Vision Pro headset, which was aggressively promoted by the company, appears to be a big failure as the company is significantly downgrading its sales volume forecasts for the device.</p></li><li><p>My valuation analysis suggests that the stock is 30% overvalued, which means there is a strong selling opportunity.</p></li></ul><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2485926098\">Investment thesis</h2><p>My previous bearish call about <strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AAPL) kept up well until the company announced its record $100 billion-plus buyback plan. It was absorbed by the market with great optimism and the stock rallied by around 11% since then. However, to me, this buyback signals that the company likely cannot offer shareholders anything beyond it. Apple was well-known for its ability to create &#34;Blue Oceans&#34; during the Steve Jobs era, but it currently appears that the company struggles to differentiate and create brand new multi-billion industries. Products sales continue to decline across all offerings, as competition intensifies and the aggressively promoted Vision Pro did not fly, as I forecasted in my previous articles.</p><p>It also appears to me that the company is still not in an AI race. While other hyperscalers pour billions into AI data centers, Apple&#39;s response has been to present a new iPad Pro for the market where competition is intensifying rapidly. Even the stock&#39;s biggest fan, Warren Buffett, is aggressively trimming his stake in AAPL. I understand him, especially because my valuation analysis suggests that the stock is currently around 30% overvalued, which is a great selling opportunity. All in all, I downgrade AAPL to &#34;Strong Sell.&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_4163683011\">Recent developments</h2><p>Apple released its latest quarterly earnings on May 2, when the company topped consensus estimates. Despite revenue declining YoY by 4.3%, the adjusted EPS expanded by one cent.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc61ff8f4e000f0a435e86a2a3b6f0a4\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"213\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>The market reacted to the earnings release with massive optimism because of the announcement of the record $100-billion plus stock buyback plan during the earnings call. Apart from this information, I think there were no more reasons for optimism. Fiscal Q2 showed double-digit YoY revenue decline in three out of five categories.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec4c96edc286579be3a37adce875c7ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\"/></p><p>AAPL&#39;s latest 10-Q report</p><p></p><p>In absolute terms, the Services segment once again was the only business line that delivered robust growth, almost $3 billion. Below $300 million YoY, revenue growth in Mac looks insignificant compared to the total quarterly revenue. The company continues exercising its pricing power in services thanks to its formidable brand name and customer loyalty. The latest increases in subscription fees were introduced in late October 2023, relatively recently. Despite Apple&#39;s robust brand loyalty, I doubt that increasing subscription fees any time soon is possible without undermining customers&#39; sentiment. Therefore, momentum in Services revenue is likely to start cooling.</p><p>Apple generates more than half of its revenue from the iPhone. And this revenue stream has been struggling for several past quarters. According to IDC, Apple&#39;s market share has shrunk significantly in calendar Q1 on a YoY basis. The market share dropped from 20.7% to 17.3% YoY, which is the worst performance among the top five vendors.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb49c746ec4ebf9af204ceef12610b01\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"/></p><p>IDC</p><p></p><p>The global leader in smartphones, Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) also demonstrated a market share decline in Q1 as Chinese manufacturers are gaining momentum. The competition in smartphones intensifies rapidly and Apple even introduced 20% discounts for iPhones in China. Such a deep discount helped to show China iPhone sales rebounding. To me, this indicates that Apple fails to differentiate itself from competitors. This is a warning sign because Apple has traditionally been at the forefront of the smartphones&#39; premium segment, that is, the differentiation was its key to charging premium prices.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39dc2a56555e70288dde96c958d46908\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"530\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p></p><p>With interest rates likely to stay higher for longer, there is the risk that discretionary spending will be soft. Moreover, unemployment is projected to grow in the U.S. for two years in the row. This also does not add optimism for discretionary spending and will likely lengthen iPhone replacement cycles.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28487048a5c23e065b390d4a90ad6562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p></p><p>Smartphone industry is not the only where Apple suffers from rapidly intensifying competition from Chinese vendors. According to Statista, Apple&#39;s market share in tablets deteriorated notably on a QoQ basis in Q1, from almost 41% to 32%. Meanwhile, Huawei&#39;s market share in tablets expanded from 7.6% to 9.4%. Apple recently unveiled new iPad Pro with a powerful M4 chip suitable for sophisticated AI applications, which might help to differentiate and regain market share. However, intensifying competition in tablets is also a risk for Apple&#39;s investors.</p><p>Apple&#39;s Vision Pro did not become a banger, as I forecasted in one of my previous articles about the company. According to Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, Apple has reduced its yearly forecasts for the headset to between 400,000 and 450,000 units, down from original projections of up to 800,000. The product has been aggressively promoted, and such a downgrade in the forecast is a big disappointment.</p><p>Finally, it appears that all Apple&#39;s secular challenges are apparent to one of the greatest investors in history, to Warren Buffett. Mr. Buffett has significantly trimmed Berkshire&#39;s (BRK.B) stake in Apple in recent quarters, which is also a red flag for investors, in my opinion. Berkshire&#39;s stake in Apple is still massive, but reducing its stake for two quarters in a row is quite a trend.</p><h2 id=\"id_1362088058\">Valuation update</h2><p>The stock lags the broader market, which is fair given all the fundamental challenges AAPL faces. The stock price rose by around 9% over the last 12 months, compared to a 26% rally in the S&amp;P 500. On a YTD basis, Apple is approximately flat, while the broader market gained around 11%.</p><p>Apple&#39;s valuation ratios are always much higher than the sector median, but it is fair given the company&#39;s scale and profitability. Therefore, it is better to compare current multiples with historical averages. From this perspective, AAPL looks overvalued, as its current valuation ratios are higher than the last five years&#39; averages across the board.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a1286a531f348b6aa25ae3351bd08f96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>To determine the extent of overvaluation, I must simulate the discounted cash flow [DCF] model. A 9% WACC is close to the level I used previously, and it aligns with the range recommended by valueinvesting.io.</p><p>Revenue consensus estimates are available for the next five years. With around $400 billion annual revenue, the company faces a big &#34;law of large numbers&#34; problem. Therefore, I project a modest 5% revenue CAGR for the years beyond FY 2028. Due to all the secular challenges AAPL faces, I do not expect AAPL to expand its 19.3% TTM FCF ex-SBC margin.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bef94fe94a679b394d78ad40357199d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p></p><p>According to my DCF simulation, the business&#39;s fair value is around $2.1 trillion. This is almost 30% lower than the current slightly sub $3 trillion market cap. Therefore, AAPL is substantially overvalued, based on my assumptions.</p><h2 id=\"id_3891777693\">Risks to my bearish thesis</h2><p>Betting against one of the most successful companies of the 21st century is extremely risky. Apple has vast financial resources to hire the best people and brightest engineers which will be able to deliver a new jaw-dropping product. Vision Pro&#39;s failure suggests that there is a creativity crisis in Apple, but for one of the largest companies in the world, there is always a probability to make a stellar comeback.</p><p>As Warren Buffett once said, the stock market is a voting machine in the short run. This means that the share price significantly depends on noisy headlines and sentiment. The recent rally after announcing a record buyback package proves this theory because earnings analysis suggests that there are no reasons to be bullish. That said, this buyback-driven rally can last for a while.</p><p>The upcoming important event from Apple called WWDC 2024 might be another positive short-term catalyst for the stock price. During the event which will be held next week, the company is expected to unveil the new iOS 18 and experts expect that the company will incorporate generative AI features into it.</p><h2 id=\"id_1483573213\">Bottom line</h2><p>To conclude, Apple&#39;s stock is still a &#34;Strong Sell&#34; to me, especially after the recent rally. There were no positive developments apart from the record buyback plan and releasing the new iPad for the market, where competition intensifies rapidly. Apple&#39;s secular challenges are apparent to me, and it appears that even the stock&#39;s biggest fan, the great Warren Buffett, recognizes these threats. The stock is significantly overvalued, in addition.</p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Does Not Create Blue Oceans Anymore</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Does Not Create Blue Oceans Anymore\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-04 13:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697201-apple-does-not-create-blue-oceans-anymore><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple Inc.'s recent buyback signals that the company cannot offer shareholders anything beyond this. Apple created several Blue Oceans during the Steve Jobs era, but delivered nothing special after he...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697201-apple-does-not-create-blue-oceans-anymore\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4515":"5G概念","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","AAPL":"苹果","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697201-apple-does-not-create-blue-oceans-anymore","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2440541174","content_text":"Apple Inc.'s recent buyback signals that the company cannot offer shareholders anything beyond this. Apple created several Blue Oceans during the Steve Jobs era, but delivered nothing special after he left.Chinese competitors pose threats not only in smartphones but also in tablets.The Vision Pro headset, which was aggressively promoted by the company, appears to be a big failure as the company is significantly downgrading its sales volume forecasts for the device.My valuation analysis suggests that the stock is 30% overvalued, which means there is a strong selling opportunity.Investment thesisMy previous bearish call about Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) kept up well until the company announced its record $100 billion-plus buyback plan. It was absorbed by the market with great optimism and the stock rallied by around 11% since then. However, to me, this buyback signals that the company likely cannot offer shareholders anything beyond it. Apple was well-known for its ability to create \"Blue Oceans\" during the Steve Jobs era, but it currently appears that the company struggles to differentiate and create brand new multi-billion industries. Products sales continue to decline across all offerings, as competition intensifies and the aggressively promoted Vision Pro did not fly, as I forecasted in my previous articles.It also appears to me that the company is still not in an AI race. While other hyperscalers pour billions into AI data centers, Apple's response has been to present a new iPad Pro for the market where competition is intensifying rapidly. Even the stock's biggest fan, Warren Buffett, is aggressively trimming his stake in AAPL. I understand him, especially because my valuation analysis suggests that the stock is currently around 30% overvalued, which is a great selling opportunity. All in all, I downgrade AAPL to \"Strong Sell.\"Recent developmentsApple released its latest quarterly earnings on May 2, when the company topped consensus estimates. Despite revenue declining YoY by 4.3%, the adjusted EPS expanded by one cent.Seeking AlphaThe market reacted to the earnings release with massive optimism because of the announcement of the record $100-billion plus stock buyback plan during the earnings call. Apart from this information, I think there were no more reasons for optimism. Fiscal Q2 showed double-digit YoY revenue decline in three out of five categories.AAPL's latest 10-Q reportIn absolute terms, the Services segment once again was the only business line that delivered robust growth, almost $3 billion. Below $300 million YoY, revenue growth in Mac looks insignificant compared to the total quarterly revenue. The company continues exercising its pricing power in services thanks to its formidable brand name and customer loyalty. The latest increases in subscription fees were introduced in late October 2023, relatively recently. Despite Apple's robust brand loyalty, I doubt that increasing subscription fees any time soon is possible without undermining customers' sentiment. Therefore, momentum in Services revenue is likely to start cooling.Apple generates more than half of its revenue from the iPhone. And this revenue stream has been struggling for several past quarters. According to IDC, Apple's market share has shrunk significantly in calendar Q1 on a YoY basis. The market share dropped from 20.7% to 17.3% YoY, which is the worst performance among the top five vendors.IDCThe global leader in smartphones, Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) also demonstrated a market share decline in Q1 as Chinese manufacturers are gaining momentum. The competition in smartphones intensifies rapidly and Apple even introduced 20% discounts for iPhones in China. Such a deep discount helped to show China iPhone sales rebounding. To me, this indicates that Apple fails to differentiate itself from competitors. This is a warning sign because Apple has traditionally been at the forefront of the smartphones' premium segment, that is, the differentiation was its key to charging premium prices.StatistaWith interest rates likely to stay higher for longer, there is the risk that discretionary spending will be soft. Moreover, unemployment is projected to grow in the U.S. for two years in the row. This also does not add optimism for discretionary spending and will likely lengthen iPhone replacement cycles.StatistaSmartphone industry is not the only where Apple suffers from rapidly intensifying competition from Chinese vendors. According to Statista, Apple's market share in tablets deteriorated notably on a QoQ basis in Q1, from almost 41% to 32%. Meanwhile, Huawei's market share in tablets expanded from 7.6% to 9.4%. Apple recently unveiled new iPad Pro with a powerful M4 chip suitable for sophisticated AI applications, which might help to differentiate and regain market share. However, intensifying competition in tablets is also a risk for Apple's investors.Apple's Vision Pro did not become a banger, as I forecasted in one of my previous articles about the company. According to Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, Apple has reduced its yearly forecasts for the headset to between 400,000 and 450,000 units, down from original projections of up to 800,000. The product has been aggressively promoted, and such a downgrade in the forecast is a big disappointment.Finally, it appears that all Apple's secular challenges are apparent to one of the greatest investors in history, to Warren Buffett. Mr. Buffett has significantly trimmed Berkshire's (BRK.B) stake in Apple in recent quarters, which is also a red flag for investors, in my opinion. Berkshire's stake in Apple is still massive, but reducing its stake for two quarters in a row is quite a trend.Valuation updateThe stock lags the broader market, which is fair given all the fundamental challenges AAPL faces. The stock price rose by around 9% over the last 12 months, compared to a 26% rally in the S&P 500. On a YTD basis, Apple is approximately flat, while the broader market gained around 11%.Apple's valuation ratios are always much higher than the sector median, but it is fair given the company's scale and profitability. Therefore, it is better to compare current multiples with historical averages. From this perspective, AAPL looks overvalued, as its current valuation ratios are higher than the last five years' averages across the board.Seeking AlphaTo determine the extent of overvaluation, I must simulate the discounted cash flow [DCF] model. A 9% WACC is close to the level I used previously, and it aligns with the range recommended by valueinvesting.io.Revenue consensus estimates are available for the next five years. With around $400 billion annual revenue, the company faces a big \"law of large numbers\" problem. Therefore, I project a modest 5% revenue CAGR for the years beyond FY 2028. Due to all the secular challenges AAPL faces, I do not expect AAPL to expand its 19.3% TTM FCF ex-SBC margin.Author's calculationsAccording to my DCF simulation, the business's fair value is around $2.1 trillion. This is almost 30% lower than the current slightly sub $3 trillion market cap. Therefore, AAPL is substantially overvalued, based on my assumptions.Risks to my bearish thesisBetting against one of the most successful companies of the 21st century is extremely risky. Apple has vast financial resources to hire the best people and brightest engineers which will be able to deliver a new jaw-dropping product. Vision Pro's failure suggests that there is a creativity crisis in Apple, but for one of the largest companies in the world, there is always a probability to make a stellar comeback.As Warren Buffett once said, the stock market is a voting machine in the short run. This means that the share price significantly depends on noisy headlines and sentiment. The recent rally after announcing a record buyback package proves this theory because earnings analysis suggests that there are no reasons to be bullish. That said, this buyback-driven rally can last for a while.The upcoming important event from Apple called WWDC 2024 might be another positive short-term catalyst for the stock price. During the event which will be held next week, the company is expected to unveil the new iOS 18 and experts expect that the company will incorporate generative AI features into it.Bottom lineTo conclude, Apple's stock is still a \"Strong Sell\" to me, especially after the recent rally. There were no positive developments apart from the record buyback plan and releasing the new iPad for the market, where competition intensifies rapidly. Apple's secular challenges are apparent to me, and it appears that even the stock's biggest fan, the great Warren Buffett, recognizes these threats. The stock is significantly overvalued, in addition.Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":268,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":268798192058448,"gmtCreate":1706655495054,"gmtModify":1706655496713,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3562148271530289\">@夜流沙</a>:？？？？？？？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3562148271530289\">@夜流沙</a>:格力的估值太低了，主要是大家对a股已经绝望了。只要gjd不出手，a股立马变成一潭死水。也许a股在酝酿一个五十年难遇的大牛市吧[笑哭]","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3562148271530289\">@夜流沙</a>:？？？？？？？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3562148271530289\">@夜流沙</a>:格力的估值太低了，主要是大家对a股已经绝望了。只要gjd不出手，a股立马变成一潭死水。也许a股在酝酿一个五十年难遇的大牛市吧[笑哭]","text":"Replying to @夜流沙:？？？？？？？//@夜流沙:格力的估值太低了，主要是大家对a股已经绝望了。只要gjd不出手，a股立马变成一潭死水。也许a股在酝酿一个五十年难遇的大牛市吧[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/268798192058448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":192392867295360,"gmtCreate":1688002707526,"gmtModify":1688002710255,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华为5.5哈哈笑死","listText":"华为5.5哈哈笑死","text":"华为5.5哈哈笑死","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192392867295360","repostId":"2347732872","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2347732872","pubTimestamp":1687998628,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2347732872?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-29 08:30","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A股盘前播报 | 5.5G明年商用！华为将发布端到端产品 “首届脑机接口大会”来了 专家看好未来应用空间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2347732872","media":"智通财经网","summary":"“国家队”重磅出手，狂买30亿这只半导体股；美股收盘涨跌不一！苹果(AAPL.US)市值逼近3万亿美元；","content":"<html><body><div> <p>早间重磅新闻速览</p><p><strong>1、大动作!“国家队”重磅出手，狂买30亿这只半导体股</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★★</p><p>6月28日晚间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>在港交所公告称，国家集成电路产业基金II将作为战略投资者参与人民币股份发行，将认购总额不超过人民币30亿元的人民币股份。30亿的资金注入，给予市场不少信心。</p><p>点评：成立以来，大基金二期正加速布局，持续投入半导体制造、材料、设备等国产半导体产业链薄弱环节。从目前的投资细分领域看，大基金二期更聚焦短板明显的设备、材料领域，方向集中于完善半导体行业的重点产业链。</p><p><strong>2、鲍威尔重申加息论调，美股收盘涨跌不一!<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>市值逼近3万亿美元</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★★</p><p>美东时间周三，美股三大指数全天小幅震荡，收盘涨跌不一。美联储主席鲍威尔重申预计今年将进一步加息以抑制通胀并为美国劳动力市场降温，并暗示不排除在接下来的会议上连续两次加息。虽然鲍威尔措辞越来越鹰派，但并未对市场产生严重冲击。截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.22%，标普500指数跌0.04%，纳斯达克指数涨0.27%。</p><p>苹果涨0.63%，股价创历史新高，市值逼近3万亿美元。大型科技股多数上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">奈飞</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>涨逾2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>涨超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>小幅上涨。</p><p><strong>3、A股杀猪盘惨案!雪球大V割韭菜?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300657\">弘信电子</a>散户怒了</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★</p><p>6月28日，弘信电子电子闪崩跌停，有股民一天巨亏22%。本来只是一次普普通通的跌停，但不少微信群、社交平台都在讨论这只股票，这该死的好奇心又被勾起来了。不少散户均在网上发帖称，这是一起杀猪盘。另外，更是把矛头指向一位雪球大V“自由钱江路”。这个大V已经将其微信公众号历史推文删得一干二净。</p><p><strong>4、5.5G明年商用!华为将发布端到端产品 A股两公司涉及相关业务</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★</p><p>据证券时报，从2023世界移动通信大会获悉，华为将于明年发布端到端的5.5G商用产品。华为认为，5.5G是5G网络演进的必由之路。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>自选股查询沪深互动平台发现，天线及射频公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002792\">通宇通讯</a>、射频公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301419\">阿莱德</a>对于投资者提问的“5.5G”话题有较为正面的回应。通宇通讯在互动平台：在5.5G的天线领域已有相关技术积累。阿莱德在互动平台：我司产品可用于5.5G领域。</p><p>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>整理的《华为产业链全景图》显示，与5.5G关联较大的基站环节，有射频如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002384\">东山精密</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002194\">武汉凡谷</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000636\">风华高科</a>、信维通信等公司。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230629/1687998751383711.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,q_40\" title=\"1687998751383711.png\"/></p><p><strong>5、又一家!上海国企在印度被骗了88亿，反被索赔21亿?紧急回应来了</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★</p><p>近日，有自媒体发布信息称“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601727\">上海电气</a>被印度诈骗88亿，反被索赔21亿”，对此，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02727\">上海电气</a>官网发布声明表示，相关报道严重歪曲事实。</p><p>上海电气称，2008年，上海电气作为印度莎圣电站项目的主要设备及服务供应商，签署了《设备供货与服务合同》，合同金额为13.11亿美元。该电站项目已于2015年投入商业运营，电厂运行情况良好。上海电气对该项目的收款已近90%，对尚未收到的尾款提起了仲裁，该仲裁已胜诉并进入执行阶段。</p><p><strong>6、“首届脑机接口大会”来了 专家看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>应用空间</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★</p><p>据脑机接口产业联盟消息，全国首届脑机接口大会暨脑机接口产业联盟第一次全会将于7月3日至5日在天津召开。外界对于脑机接口技术的关注度正持续攀升。接受上证报记者采访的专家认为，中国发展脑机接口技术存在一定优势，与此同时，知识产权侵权、伦理审查等多方面的问题仍需留意。</p><p><strong>7、千亿央企放大招!钙钛矿电池产业化元年或已悄然而至</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★</p><p>作为最有前景的下一代光伏技术，钙钛矿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>电池正被业内外企业追捧。  6月28日晚间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601985\">中国核电</a>公告，公司董事会审议通过了《关于柔性、刚性钙钛矿商业级中试产线研发科研项目立项的议案》。这是继中国华能之后，又一家央企大规模进军钙钛矿太阳能电池。</p><p>点评：  据银河证券预测，随着钙钛矿电池技术的进一步成熟，“十四五”期间，我国钙钛矿电池在建及规划产能有望达到50GW-75GW。目前，A股已有近20家上市公司对钙钛矿电池感兴趣。除了相关初创公司，还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600438\">通威股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">隆基绿能</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03800\">协鑫科技</a>等行业巨头。</p><p><strong>8、胡锡进炒股第二天：仓位加重，盈利120元，选股套路曝光</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★</p><p>6月28日是胡锡进炒股的第二天，胡锡进表示：下午两点半左右新买了两只个股，上午增加了昨天买的一只个股的数量，总投入达到7.5万多元。运气也真不错，今天收盘时的盈利达到了226.43元，比昨天增加了120多元。</p><p>并透露了选股套路：买的几只股票都是盘子大的，最小的市值也是几百亿的，而且它们都有过高点，目前处于它们的价值低位。</p><p><strong>9、经济日报评论：有效发挥数字人民币职能</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★</p><p>经济日报发文称，作为新生事物，数字人民币还处于初级阶段，要充分发挥数字人民币职能，必须扎扎实实做好一些工作。一是坚持市场导向，加速形成数字人民币的网络效应。二是坚持制度型开放，积极参与全球数字治理。三是推动数字人民币跨境支付，在国际支付体系数字化改革方面贡献中国方案。</p><p><strong>10、楼市传来大消息!广州调整公积金贷款政策 最高可贷130万元</strong></p><p>重要程度：★★★</p><p>6月28日，广州住房公积金管理中心发布《关于贯彻落实二孩及以上家庭支持政策的通知》，明确生育二孩及以上的家庭(至少一个子女未成年)使用住房公积金贷款购买首套自住住房的，住房公积金贷款最高额度上浮30%，一人贷款最高额度为78万元，两人或两人以上一起贷款的最高贷款额度为130万元。</p><p><strong>11、财政部：截至5月末全国地方债余额375579亿 控制在全国人大批准的限额之内</strong></p><p><strong>12、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>中国股票策略师刘鸣镝：沪深300指数年底或可看高至4600点</strong></p><p>财经日历</p><p>自选哥提示，今日沪深两市有新股国科恒泰申购，新股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688429\">时创能源</a>上市。</p><p>1、17:00 欧元区6月消费者信心指数终值</p><p>2、20:30 美国至6月24日当周初请失业金人数</p><p>3、20:30 美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值</p><p>4、20:30 美国第一季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率终值</p><p>机会提前看</p><p>自选哥梳理市场关注的投资机会发现，存储芯片等受关注度较高。</p><p><strong>1、目标涨幅最高8%：存储三巨头酝酿涨价 国产DRAM存储股一览</strong></p><p>周三盘后，A股存储器板块迎来利好提振：存储芯片三巨头集体酝酿涨价，目标涨幅最高8%。华鑫证券认为，存储芯片价格整体呈现下跌趋势变缓的状态，周期底部区间基本确认。</p><p>东吴证券研究所整理的《存储产业链梳理》显示，DRAM涉及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300042\">朗科科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002049\">紫光国微</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688525\">佰维存储</a>、北京君正、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002213\">大为股份</a>等A股公司。</p><p>此外，腾讯自选股统计了近三个月获机构青睐的存储器股名单，仅供读者参考。数据显示，近三个月中微公司获28家机构买入评级居首，其次的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600584\">长电科技</a>、北京君正、紫光国微、兆易创新均获机构买入评级超10家。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230629/1687998831936909.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_90\" title=\"1687998831936909.png\"/></p><p><strong>2、抽水蓄能|国内抽水蓄能电站项目核准提速，产业链公司望受益</strong></p><p><strong>3、面板|6月iPhone15面板订单同比iPhone14高出100%，面板企业利润有望修复</strong></p><p><strong>4、船舶|领跑全球，我国部分船企半年完成全年接单目标</strong></p><p><strong>5、激光|实现工程应用，我国星地激光高速通信取得成功</strong></p><p><strong>6、压铸一体化|全球最大镁合金汽车压铸件试制成功，前景可观</strong></p><p>后市研判</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">国泰君安</a>认为，指数底部初探明，风格切换待秋季;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>认为，食品行业龙头估值基本筑底，中长期看价值凸显。</p><p><strong>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02611\">国泰君安</a>：指数底部初探明 风格切换待秋季</strong></p><p>国泰君安策略团队发布的最新研报指出，预计Q3指数以震荡为主，待秋天(9-10月)临近中国现代化产业体系与房地产新发展模式明晰，宏观不确定性下降，指数或将迎来新一轮攻势。现在还没有到风格切换的时候，顺经济周期类股票底部震荡，反弹关键看估值性价比，系统性的风格切换需要待发展模式的确立与宏观不确定的降低。</p><p><strong>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01776\">广发证券</a>：食品行业龙头估值基本筑底 中长期看价值凸显</strong></p><p>广发证券研报认为，食品饮料板块估值基本筑底，预计政策扩内需落地、消费继续回暖有望推动新一轮牛市，2023年以后戴维斯双击可期。关注低估值龙头，一方面，餐饮渠道占比高的公司需求恢复弹性大;另一方面，考虑消费复苏节奏不确定，下游渠道需求偏刚性或客单价适中、渠道产品扩张的公司需求恢复确定性强。</p><p>上市公司正面负面公告</p><p>偏正面方面，自选哥提示关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002031\">巨轮智能</a>与藦卡<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>签订战略合作等;偏负面公告方面，注意<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002776\">*ST柏龙</a>实控人被批捕等。</p><p><strong>偏正面公告</strong></p><p>1、巨轮智能：与藦卡机器人签订战略合作协议，藦卡机器人计划向公司分批次采购约5万套RV减速器，首批采购数量约3000套等</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002307\">北新路桥</a>：中标巫山龙江新区云水山居项目，中标金额1.85亿元</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603496\">恒为科技</a>：成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHL\">中国移动</a>采购项目中标候选人，预计中标金额合计约为1.83亿元</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300795\">米奥会展</a>：上半年预盈6500万元–8500万元，上年同期亏损1495.53万元，同比扭亏</p><p>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601668\">中国建筑</a>：近期获得重大项目金额合计409亿元</p><p><strong>偏负面公告</strong></p><p>1、*ST柏龙：公司实控人因涉嫌欺诈发行股票罪、违规披露、不披露重要信息罪被执行逮捕</p><p>2、7天6板中马传动：公司生产不涉及机器人概念</p><p>3、科安达：董事长及董事拟减持不超7.1%股份</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603386\">骏亚科技</a>：控股股东骏亚企业拟减持不超6%股份</p><p>5、广博股份：董事拟减持不超2.77%股份</p><p>解禁名单</p><p>从解禁比例来看，未来5日胜蓝股份解禁比例达62.84%，其次解禁比例居前的分别为博汇股份、东方碳素;从解禁市值来看，农业银行、居然之家等股解禁市值居前。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230629/1687998878917233.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,q_40\" title=\"1687998878917233.png\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230629/1687998898698273.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,q_40\" title=\"1687998898698273.png\"/></p><p>海外市场</p><p>自选哥提示，美股周三收盘涨跌不一，纳指小幅上涨，热门中概股多数下跌;纽约黄金期货周三下跌，并创3月中旬以来的最低收盘价;美国WTI原油期货价格周三收高。</p><p><strong>海外资产行情简述</strong></p><p>1、美股市场：美股周三收盘涨跌不一。美联储主席鲍威尔重申预计今年将进一步加息以抑制通胀并为美国劳动力市场降温，并暗示不排除在接下来的会议上连续两次加息。</p><p>2、中概股：热门中概股周三多数下跌，纳斯达克金龙指数跌0.93%。  拓臻生物涨超18%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PUYI\">普益财富</a>涨超11%，亿航涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAAS\">能链智电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCAR\">优品车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>涨超7%; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IH\">洪恩</a>、聪链集团跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>跌超6%。</p><p>3、黄金市场：纽约黄金期货周三下跌，并创3月中旬以来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金价格下跌1.60美元，跌幅近0.1%，收于每盎司1922.20美元，为3月14日以来最低的最活跃合约收盘。</p><p>4、原油市场：美国WTI原油期货价格周三收高，此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>信息署(EIA)数据显示美国截止6月23日当周原油库存减少近1000万桶。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油(WTI)期货价格上涨1.86美元，涨幅近2.8%，收于每桶69.56美元。</p><p>5、欧股市场：欧洲主要股指集体收涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.68%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨0.49%，法国CAC40指数涨0.98%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.92%。</p><p><strong>本文转载自“腾讯自选股”，智通财经编辑：陈雯芳。</strong></p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股盘前播报 | 5.5G明年商用！华为将发布端到端产品 “首届脑机接口大会”来了 专家看好未来应用空间</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股盘前播报 | 5.5G明年商用！华为将发布端到端产品 “首届脑机接口大会”来了 专家看好未来应用空间\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-29 08:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/952297.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>早间重磅新闻速览1、大动作!“国家队”重磅出手，狂买30亿这只半导体股重要程度：★★★★6月28日晚间，华虹半导体在港交所公告称，国家集成电路产业基金II将作为战略投资者参与人民币股份发行，将认购总额不超过人民币30亿元的人民币股份。30亿的资金注入，给予市场不少信心。点评：成立以来，大基金二期正加速布局，持续投入半导体制造、材料、设备等国产半导体产业链薄弱环节。从目前的投资细分领域看，大基金二期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/952297.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20230629/20230629083153_12542.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","WTI":"W&T海底钻探",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","EIA":"Eaton Vance California Municip","BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4588":"碎股","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/952297.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2347732872","content_text":"早间重磅新闻速览1、大动作!“国家队”重磅出手，狂买30亿这只半导体股重要程度：★★★★6月28日晚间，华虹半导体在港交所公告称，国家集成电路产业基金II将作为战略投资者参与人民币股份发行，将认购总额不超过人民币30亿元的人民币股份。30亿的资金注入，给予市场不少信心。点评：成立以来，大基金二期正加速布局，持续投入半导体制造、材料、设备等国产半导体产业链薄弱环节。从目前的投资细分领域看，大基金二期更聚焦短板明显的设备、材料领域，方向集中于完善半导体行业的重点产业链。2、鲍威尔重申加息论调，美股收盘涨跌不一!苹果市值逼近3万亿美元重要程度：★★★★美东时间周三，美股三大指数全天小幅震荡，收盘涨跌不一。美联储主席鲍威尔重申预计今年将进一步加息以抑制通胀并为美国劳动力市场降温，并暗示不排除在接下来的会议上连续两次加息。虽然鲍威尔措辞越来越鹰派，但并未对市场产生严重冲击。截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.22%，标普500指数跌0.04%，纳斯达克指数涨0.27%。苹果涨0.63%，股价创历史新高，市值逼近3万亿美元。大型科技股多数上涨，奈飞涨超3%，特斯拉涨逾2%，谷歌涨超1%，微软小幅上涨。3、A股杀猪盘惨案!雪球大V割韭菜?弘信电子散户怒了重要程度：★★★6月28日，弘信电子电子闪崩跌停，有股民一天巨亏22%。本来只是一次普普通通的跌停，但不少微信群、社交平台都在讨论这只股票，这该死的好奇心又被勾起来了。不少散户均在网上发帖称，这是一起杀猪盘。另外，更是把矛头指向一位雪球大V“自由钱江路”。这个大V已经将其微信公众号历史推文删得一干二净。4、5.5G明年商用!华为将发布端到端产品 A股两公司涉及相关业务重要程度：★★★据证券时报，从2023世界移动通信大会获悉，华为将于明年发布端到端的5.5G商用产品。华为认为，5.5G是5G网络演进的必由之路。腾讯自选股查询沪深互动平台发现，天线及射频公司通宇通讯、射频公司阿莱德对于投资者提问的“5.5G”话题有较为正面的回应。通宇通讯在互动平台：在5.5G的天线领域已有相关技术积累。阿莱德在互动平台：我司产品可用于5.5G领域。此外，东吴证券整理的《华为产业链全景图》显示，与5.5G关联较大的基站环节，有射频如东山精密、武汉凡谷、风华高科、信维通信等公司。5、又一家!上海国企在印度被骗了88亿，反被索赔21亿?紧急回应来了重要程度：★★★近日，有自媒体发布信息称“上海电气被印度诈骗88亿，反被索赔21亿”，对此，上海电气官网发布声明表示，相关报道严重歪曲事实。上海电气称，2008年，上海电气作为印度莎圣电站项目的主要设备及服务供应商，签署了《设备供货与服务合同》，合同金额为13.11亿美元。该电站项目已于2015年投入商业运营，电厂运行情况良好。上海电气对该项目的收款已近90%，对尚未收到的尾款提起了仲裁，该仲裁已胜诉并进入执行阶段。6、“首届脑机接口大会”来了 专家看好未来应用空间重要程度：★★★据脑机接口产业联盟消息，全国首届脑机接口大会暨脑机接口产业联盟第一次全会将于7月3日至5日在天津召开。外界对于脑机接口技术的关注度正持续攀升。接受上证报记者采访的专家认为，中国发展脑机接口技术存在一定优势，与此同时，知识产权侵权、伦理审查等多方面的问题仍需留意。7、千亿央企放大招!钙钛矿电池产业化元年或已悄然而至重要程度：★★★作为最有前景的下一代光伏技术，钙钛矿太阳能电池正被业内外企业追捧。  6月28日晚间，中国核电公告，公司董事会审议通过了《关于柔性、刚性钙钛矿商业级中试产线研发科研项目立项的议案》。这是继中国华能之后，又一家央企大规模进军钙钛矿太阳能电池。点评：  据银河证券预测，随着钙钛矿电池技术的进一步成熟，“十四五”期间，我国钙钛矿电池在建及规划产能有望达到50GW-75GW。目前，A股已有近20家上市公司对钙钛矿电池感兴趣。除了相关初创公司，还有通威股份、隆基绿能、宁德时代、协鑫科技等行业巨头。8、胡锡进炒股第二天：仓位加重，盈利120元，选股套路曝光重要程度：★★★6月28日是胡锡进炒股的第二天，胡锡进表示：下午两点半左右新买了两只个股，上午增加了昨天买的一只个股的数量，总投入达到7.5万多元。运气也真不错，今天收盘时的盈利达到了226.43元，比昨天增加了120多元。并透露了选股套路：买的几只股票都是盘子大的，最小的市值也是几百亿的，而且它们都有过高点，目前处于它们的价值低位。9、经济日报评论：有效发挥数字人民币职能重要程度：★★★经济日报发文称，作为新生事物，数字人民币还处于初级阶段，要充分发挥数字人民币职能，必须扎扎实实做好一些工作。一是坚持市场导向，加速形成数字人民币的网络效应。二是坚持制度型开放，积极参与全球数字治理。三是推动数字人民币跨境支付，在国际支付体系数字化改革方面贡献中国方案。10、楼市传来大消息!广州调整公积金贷款政策 最高可贷130万元重要程度：★★★6月28日，广州住房公积金管理中心发布《关于贯彻落实二孩及以上家庭支持政策的通知》，明确生育二孩及以上的家庭(至少一个子女未成年)使用住房公积金贷款购买首套自住住房的，住房公积金贷款最高额度上浮30%，一人贷款最高额度为78万元，两人或两人以上一起贷款的最高贷款额度为130万元。11、财政部：截至5月末全国地方债余额375579亿 控制在全国人大批准的限额之内12、摩根大通中国股票策略师刘鸣镝：沪深300指数年底或可看高至4600点财经日历自选哥提示，今日沪深两市有新股国科恒泰申购，新股时创能源上市。1、17:00 欧元区6月消费者信心指数终值2、20:30 美国至6月24日当周初请失业金人数3、20:30 美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值4、20:30 美国第一季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率终值机会提前看自选哥梳理市场关注的投资机会发现，存储芯片等受关注度较高。1、目标涨幅最高8%：存储三巨头酝酿涨价 国产DRAM存储股一览周三盘后，A股存储器板块迎来利好提振：存储芯片三巨头集体酝酿涨价，目标涨幅最高8%。华鑫证券认为，存储芯片价格整体呈现下跌趋势变缓的状态，周期底部区间基本确认。东吴证券研究所整理的《存储产业链梳理》显示，DRAM涉及朗科科技、紫光国微、佰维存储、北京君正、大为股份等A股公司。此外，腾讯自选股统计了近三个月获机构青睐的存储器股名单，仅供读者参考。数据显示，近三个月中微公司获28家机构买入评级居首，其次的长电科技、北京君正、紫光国微、兆易创新均获机构买入评级超10家。2、抽水蓄能|国内抽水蓄能电站项目核准提速，产业链公司望受益3、面板|6月iPhone15面板订单同比iPhone14高出100%，面板企业利润有望修复4、船舶|领跑全球，我国部分船企半年完成全年接单目标5、激光|实现工程应用，我国星地激光高速通信取得成功6、压铸一体化|全球最大镁合金汽车压铸件试制成功，前景可观后市研判国泰君安认为，指数底部初探明，风格切换待秋季;广发证券认为，食品行业龙头估值基本筑底，中长期看价值凸显。1、国泰君安：指数底部初探明 风格切换待秋季国泰君安策略团队发布的最新研报指出，预计Q3指数以震荡为主，待秋天(9-10月)临近中国现代化产业体系与房地产新发展模式明晰，宏观不确定性下降，指数或将迎来新一轮攻势。现在还没有到风格切换的时候，顺经济周期类股票底部震荡，反弹关键看估值性价比，系统性的风格切换需要待发展模式的确立与宏观不确定的降低。2、广发证券：食品行业龙头估值基本筑底 中长期看价值凸显广发证券研报认为，食品饮料板块估值基本筑底，预计政策扩内需落地、消费继续回暖有望推动新一轮牛市，2023年以后戴维斯双击可期。关注低估值龙头，一方面，餐饮渠道占比高的公司需求恢复弹性大;另一方面，考虑消费复苏节奏不确定，下游渠道需求偏刚性或客单价适中、渠道产品扩张的公司需求恢复确定性强。上市公司正面负面公告偏正面方面，自选哥提示关注巨轮智能与藦卡机器人签订战略合作等;偏负面公告方面，注意*ST柏龙实控人被批捕等。偏正面公告1、巨轮智能：与藦卡机器人签订战略合作协议，藦卡机器人计划向公司分批次采购约5万套RV减速器，首批采购数量约3000套等2、北新路桥：中标巫山龙江新区云水山居项目，中标金额1.85亿元3、恒为科技：成为中国移动采购项目中标候选人，预计中标金额合计约为1.83亿元4、米奥会展：上半年预盈6500万元–8500万元，上年同期亏损1495.53万元，同比扭亏5、中国建筑：近期获得重大项目金额合计409亿元偏负面公告1、*ST柏龙：公司实控人因涉嫌欺诈发行股票罪、违规披露、不披露重要信息罪被执行逮捕2、7天6板中马传动：公司生产不涉及机器人概念3、科安达：董事长及董事拟减持不超7.1%股份4、骏亚科技：控股股东骏亚企业拟减持不超6%股份5、广博股份：董事拟减持不超2.77%股份解禁名单从解禁比例来看，未来5日胜蓝股份解禁比例达62.84%，其次解禁比例居前的分别为博汇股份、东方碳素;从解禁市值来看，农业银行、居然之家等股解禁市值居前。海外市场自选哥提示，美股周三收盘涨跌不一，纳指小幅上涨，热门中概股多数下跌;纽约黄金期货周三下跌，并创3月中旬以来的最低收盘价;美国WTI原油期货价格周三收高。海外资产行情简述1、美股市场：美股周三收盘涨跌不一。美联储主席鲍威尔重申预计今年将进一步加息以抑制通胀并为美国劳动力市场降温，并暗示不排除在接下来的会议上连续两次加息。2、中概股：热门中概股周三多数下跌，纳斯达克金龙指数跌0.93%。  拓臻生物涨超18%，普益财富涨超11%，亿航涨超8%，能链智电、优品车、小鹏汽车涨超7%; 洪恩、聪链集团跌超7%，嘉楠科技跌超6%。3、黄金市场：纽约黄金期货周三下跌，并创3月中旬以来的最低收盘价。纽约商品交易所8月交割的黄金价格下跌1.60美元，跌幅近0.1%，收于每盎司1922.20美元，为3月14日以来最低的最活跃合约收盘。4、原油市场：美国WTI原油期货价格周三收高，此前美国能源信息署(EIA)数据显示美国截止6月23日当周原油库存减少近1000万桶。纽约商品交易所8月交割的西德州中质原油(WTI)期货价格上涨1.86美元，涨幅近2.8%，收于每桶69.56美元。5、欧股市场：欧洲主要股指集体收涨，德国DAX30指数涨0.68%，英国富时100指数涨0.49%，法国CAC40指数涨0.98%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.92%。本文转载自“腾讯自选股”，智通财经编辑：陈雯芳。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":768687914565696,"gmtCreate":1687966317786,"gmtModify":1687966318927,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>一直以为。鲍威尔的讲话会导致一波下跌，结果没用，这个**鲍威尔，这时候不灵了呢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>一直以为。鲍威尔的讲话会导致一波下跌，结果没用，这个**鲍威尔，这时候不灵了呢","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 一直以为。鲍威尔的讲话会导致一波下跌，结果没用，这个**鲍威尔，这时候不灵了呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/768687914565696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"加不了几次了，而且美国经济强劲，不会发生经济衰退，所以讲话没用","text":"加不了几次了，而且美国经济强劲，不会发生经济衰退，所以讲话没用","html":"加不了几次了，而且美国经济强劲，不会发生经济衰退，所以讲话没用"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":768673347879040,"gmtCreate":1687965474531,"gmtModify":1687965476729,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>快跑快跑快跑","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>快跑快跑快跑","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 快跑快跑快跑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/768673347879040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":769209541050400,"gmtCreate":1687964770903,"gmtModify":1687964772215,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>大家快跑啊，鲍威尔讲话了，说会出现更多紧缩力量，这么鹰的讲话，大盘还涨？？出现了超买，快跑！！快跑，求你们了快跑！！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>大家快跑啊，鲍威尔讲话了，说会出现更多紧缩力量，这么鹰的讲话，大盘还涨？？出现了超买，快跑！！快跑，求你们了快跑！！","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 大家快跑啊，鲍威尔讲话了，说会出现更多紧缩力量，这么鹰的讲话，大盘还涨？？出现了超买，快跑！！快跑，求你们了快跑！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/769209541050400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"不要学a股散户进进出出最后一场空，要拿就拿到下轮加息到3%，直接清空","text":"不要学a股散户进进出出最后一场空，要拿就拿到下轮加息到3%，直接清空","html":"不要学a股散户进进出出最后一场空，要拿就拿到下轮加息到3%，直接清空"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":192237116915736,"gmtCreate":1687964680518,"gmtModify":1687964682024,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"讲话不管用了呢？？都紧缩了。大盘还涨，不给鲍威尔面子啊。。。市场过热了，快跑，出现了超买，快跑","listText":"讲话不管用了呢？？都紧缩了。大盘还涨，不给鲍威尔面子啊。。。市场过热了，快跑，出现了超买，快跑","text":"讲话不管用了呢？？都紧缩了。大盘还涨，不给鲍威尔面子啊。。。市场过热了，快跑，出现了超买，快跑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192237116915736","repostId":"2346084058","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2346084058","pubTimestamp":1687959876,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2346084058?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-28 21:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预计会出现更多的紧缩力量。","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2346084058","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预计会出现更多的紧缩力量。...","content":"<html><body><p>美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预计会出现更多的紧缩力量。</p><div>风险提示及免责条款</div>\n<div>\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n          </div>\n</body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预计会出现更多的紧缩力量。</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预计会出现更多的紧缩力量。\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-28 21:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3692053><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预计会出现更多的紧缩力量。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3692053\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/d0/24/94/-1-2-.png?imageView2/1/w/340/h/340","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3692053","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2346084058","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储预计会出现更多的紧缩力量。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":768844006604880,"gmtCreate":1687960907918,"gmtModify":1687960909367,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>这还是有利空，没利空不得起飞啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>这还是有利空，没利空不得起飞啊","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这还是有利空，没利空不得起飞啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/768844006604880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":768939342659616,"gmtCreate":1687948279301,"gmtModify":1687948280302,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>压单必破。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>压单必破。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 压单必破。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/768939342659616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":768324124082240,"gmtCreate":1687944113778,"gmtModify":1687944217688,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>今天必会杀空单","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>今天必会杀空单","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天必会杀空单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/768324124082240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3461643882586533","authorId":"3461643882586533","name":"飘叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"我427的空，等着杀，我好怕","text":"我427的空，等着杀，我好怕","html":"我427的空，等着杀，我好怕"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":768290948694144,"gmtCreate":1687942134738,"gmtModify":1687942135862,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>价位太低，卖的人不愿意卖，买的人呢有点儿害怕，简直就没有成交量了。稍微来点儿资金就能拉起来。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>价位太低，卖的人不愿意卖，买的人呢有点儿害怕，简直就没有成交量了。稍微来点儿资金就能拉起来。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 价位太低，卖的人不愿意卖，买的人呢有点儿害怕，简直就没有成交量了。稍微来点儿资金就能拉起来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/768290948694144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3461643882586533","authorId":"3461643882586533","name":"飘叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"别想了，跌破400，很多机构都会平仓了，借着利空的消息，会带动杠杆多单爆仓平仓，然后一路下行，等着修复趋势至少一个月，最多半年才能进场做多？","text":"别想了，跌破400，很多机构都会平仓了，借着利空的消息，会带动杠杆多单爆仓平仓，然后一路下行，等着修复趋势至少一个月，最多半年才能进场做多？","html":"别想了，跌破400，很多机构都会平仓了，借着利空的消息，会带动杠杆多单爆仓平仓，然后一路下行，等着修复趋势至少一个月，最多半年才能进场做多？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":192137698689048,"gmtCreate":1687940408491,"gmtModify":1687940409825,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈","listText":"哈哈","text":"哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192137698689048","repostId":"2346890447","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":659271365,"gmtCreate":1680099818857,"gmtModify":1680099820733,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有种你放学别走？？？多多就这么回应吗[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"有种你放学别走？？？多多就这么回应吗[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"有种你放学别走？？？多多就这么回应吗[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659271365","repostId":"1166396618","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166396618","pubTimestamp":1680091625,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166396618?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-29 20:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"几十家品牌店遭遇最夸张“炸店”事件？拼多多小二怒斥：请你站到阳光下来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166396618","media":"正观新闻","summary":"3月29日，针对近期拼多多平台数十家品牌店遭遇有组织的“炸店”事件，有拼多多小二发布朋友圈称，这是从业以来经历过的最夸张的恶意打砸店铺事件，平台已固定相关证据，并将坚决诉诸司法机关。据了解，自3月28","content":"<p>3月29日，针对近期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>平台数十家品牌店遭遇有组织的“炸店”事件，有拼多多小二发布朋友圈称，这是从业以来经历过的最夸张的恶意打砸店铺事件，平台已固定相关证据，并将坚决诉诸司法机关。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff7293bc9189229622cbe206427fe56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"603\"></p><p></p><p>据了解，自3月28日起，拼多多平台几十家品牌店先后遭遇大量不明身份人员集中“炸店”，一些品牌店为了自保不得不暂时歇业，以避免进一步损失。拼多多小二称，一些人员通过短视频平台及社交媒体进行发动，有组织有预谋地对平台几十家品牌店发起“炸店”行动。他们先是集中大量的恶意下单，然后闪退单，几近“打砸”店铺，同时恶语辱骂品牌店客服人员。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b35b70d409d761a8926df5a3e6dabc5\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"399\"></p><p></p><p>对此，拼多多小二表示，平台已固定相关证据，将坚决诉诸司法机关。对遭遇“炸店”的品牌店，平台将兜底承担所有损失。此外，平台还将进一步加大品牌店体系的资金和人力投入，维护好蒸蒸日上的品牌店体系。</p><p></p><p></p><p>拼多多小二在朋友圈怒斥，“炸店”行径如此突破底线，罔顾商业道德，实在闻所未闻，令人发指。“破坏别人并不会让你变好。在背后蝇营狗苟，也不会真的让你隐身，请你站到阳光下来！”并声称平台将坚决与这些猥琐卑鄙、突破底线的行径斗争到底。</p>","source":"lsy1618548437207","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>几十家品牌店遭遇最夸张“炸店”事件？拼多多小二怒斥：请你站到阳光下来</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n几十家品牌店遭遇最夸张“炸店”事件？拼多多小二怒斥：请你站到阳光下来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-29 20:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1761703405835747805&wfr=spider&for=pc><strong>正观新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月29日，针对近期拼多多平台数十家品牌店遭遇有组织的“炸店”事件，有拼多多小二发布朋友圈称，这是从业以来经历过的最夸张的恶意打砸店铺事件，平台已固定相关证据，并将坚决诉诸司法机关。据了解，自3月28日起，拼多多平台几十家品牌店先后遭遇大量不明身份人员集中“炸店”，一些品牌店为了自保不得不暂时歇业，以避免进一步损失。拼多多小二称，一些人员通过短视频平台及社交媒体进行发动，有组织有预谋地对平台几十家...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1761703405835747805&wfr=spider&for=pc\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2db5797ca32628002f32e69d5dea58b","relate_stocks":{"IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4558":"双十一","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4501":"段永平概念","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","PDD":"拼多多","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念"},"source_url":"https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1761703405835747805&wfr=spider&for=pc","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166396618","content_text":"3月29日，针对近期拼多多平台数十家品牌店遭遇有组织的“炸店”事件，有拼多多小二发布朋友圈称，这是从业以来经历过的最夸张的恶意打砸店铺事件，平台已固定相关证据，并将坚决诉诸司法机关。据了解，自3月28日起，拼多多平台几十家品牌店先后遭遇大量不明身份人员集中“炸店”，一些品牌店为了自保不得不暂时歇业，以避免进一步损失。拼多多小二称，一些人员通过短视频平台及社交媒体进行发动，有组织有预谋地对平台几十家品牌店发起“炸店”行动。他们先是集中大量的恶意下单，然后闪退单，几近“打砸”店铺，同时恶语辱骂品牌店客服人员。对此，拼多多小二表示，平台已固定相关证据，将坚决诉诸司法机关。对遭遇“炸店”的品牌店，平台将兜底承担所有损失。此外，平台还将进一步加大品牌店体系的资金和人力投入，维护好蒸蒸日上的品牌店体系。拼多多小二在朋友圈怒斥，“炸店”行径如此突破底线，罔顾商业道德，实在闻所未闻，令人发指。“破坏别人并不会让你变好。在背后蝇营狗苟，也不会真的让你隐身，请你站到阳光下来！”并声称平台将坚决与这些猥琐卑鄙、突破底线的行径斗争到底。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650720511,"gmtCreate":1679521979634,"gmtModify":1679521981172,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"笑死了哈哈，","listText":"笑死了哈哈，","text":"笑死了哈哈，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650720511","repostId":"1163917622","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163917622","pubTimestamp":1679464109,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163917622?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-22 13:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国银行危机远未结束","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163917622","media":"半夏投资","summary":"针对近期美国银行危机昨天，美国财长耶伦表示：如果有必要，联邦政府有意为更多中小型银行的存款提供担保支持。媒体报道：美国财政部正在研究监管机构是否有权在未经国会批准的情况下临时为高于FDIC投保上限的存","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>针对近期<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>危机</p><p>昨天，美国财长耶伦表示：如果有必要，联邦政府有意为更多中小型银行的存款提供担保支持。</p><p>媒体报道：美国财政部正在研究监管机构是否有权在未经国会批准的情况下临时为高于FDIC投保上限的存款提供担保，猜测投保上限会翻倍，或者FDIC可能为所有存款提供保险。</p><p>因此，美国银行股大涨，带动风险资产大涨。</p><p>我的个人看法：</p><p><b>美国小银行危机远未结束</b></p><p>本轮美国的银行业危机有两个关键点：</p><p><b>1，银行的风险管理存在严重的问题和漏洞，造成实质性资产负债表创伤</b></p><p>美国银行业总体40%的资产是按揭贷款，基于按揭贷款的MBS，长期国债。因为几家大银行此类资产平均比例更低，仅20%左右，所以小银行的此类资产比例大于50%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0983ab8d842fb2d9f211e870a425222\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>美国90%以上的按揭贷款都是固定利率的，期限20-30年。因此，美国小银行50%以上的资产都是长期固定利率资产，粗略估计这部分资产久期大于10年。于是<b>美国的银行面临着巨大的久期风险。</b></p><p>作为对比，中国的银行业90%以上的按揭贷款都是浮动利率的。弹性而健康。</p><p>随着过去一年美联储大幅加息，这些长期固定利率资产如果按照最新市场价格定价，已经贬值了20%以上（当然，银行在报表上把此类资产计入持有到期账户，账面并不体现亏损）。考虑到50%的占比，银行总资产如果按市场定价出售，平均贬值10%。</p><p>而银行普遍是10倍以上杠杆的，所以如果就当前市场价格变现资产，很多美国小银行已经资不抵债，实质破产。并不仅仅是流动性问题。</p><p><b>2，存款流失</b></p><p>一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>如果存在上面的情况，存量资产按市场价格实际破产，并不是一定会死。只要还能维持正常的资产增速，资产和负债健康增长，那新的优质资产就可以稀释之前的亏损资产。时间就能解决一切的问题。</p><p>而且现在的问题是：</p><p>美国全行业的存款在流失。</p><p>这个存款流失并不是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">硅谷银行</a>的风险爆发之后才发生的，而是在己之前已经持续了半年，并不是个别银行的现象，而是全行业总体的现象。</p><p>本世纪以来，第一次，持续半年时间，全美银行业存款负增长。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/236a5f8e729363b793a28511b036ff2c\" tg-width=\"893\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>这背后的两个原因。</p><p>1. 美国总体的货币增速在下行，已经转负。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/176eb209b30dfae2bb4e03b0f990098c\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>2. 美国银行的存款大多是无息和低息存款。</p><p>以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>为例，存款成本仅不到0.5%。无息和低息存款占比一半。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79a2564cf52eb04f3478f49db7ee15dc\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>随着利率大幅上升，这些无息和低存款面临着极高的机会成本，开始向货币市场基金转移。</p><p>当存款流失。一个银行如果要维持自己的资产负债表规模甚至增长，只能从市场上去使用一些高价负债，比如银行间市场的短期流动性，考虑到现在美国整个利率曲线是大幅倒挂的，短端明显高于长端，即便是匹配了新的资产，实现资产负债表增长，那新增资产负债也是倒挂的，也是饮鸠止渴。</p><p>即便联邦政府为更多中小型银行的存款提供全额担保支持，只是短期遏制居民和企业从小银行挤兑，转移存款到大银行的行为，不能改变全行业存款下降的事实，不改变银行温水煮青蛙慢慢死的结果。</p><p>而且，全额担保极大可能是会被国会反对的。因为逆向选择和道德风险无边无际。对国民的利益构成极大威胁。</p><p>举个简化而极端的例子，如果存款完全政府兜底，那储户根本不需要辨别银行的风险和质地，谁的利率高就存谁那里。那么，我可以去美国开一家银行，高息揽储10个亿，都贷款给我妈的公司，我妈的公司可以雇我的女儿做CEO，每年给她发3个亿奖金，3年后之后，10个亿花光，公司破产。银行贷款收不回来，也破产，10亿存款损失由纳税人承担，但都输送给了我女儿。</p><p>如果美国政府不能全额担保存款，那么存款从小银行流向大银行，加速小银行死亡，大概率还是依然会发生的。</p><p>所以，除非美联储大幅降息到2%以下，低于大部分银行存量资产的利率水平，并继续大幅QE扩表，美国小银行的问题是无解的。</p><p>但以上基本是不可能的。</p><p>因为本轮银行危机，本质上就是美国的小银行自己的风险管理问题，如果他们当初发放的都是浮动利率贷款，而非固定的贷款全然，不可能有这样的结果反而会受益于加息带来的资产收益率上行。</p><p>在这个过程中，实体经济不仅没有受害，反而是受益的。一个普通的美国家庭，相比疫情前，工资增长了20%以上。疫情前购买的房产已经大幅升值，但是每个月的月供维持不变。家庭的资产和可支配收入都是显著改善的。所以，美国的实体经济韧性十足，美国的通胀极其顽固。</p><p>而银行就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">老百姓</a>的这种改善的对立面。一定程度可以说，这一轮美国的老百姓剪了银行的羊毛，割了银行的韭菜。但这不是老百姓故意干坏事，是银行自己太蠢，太迟钝，在风险管理上，用尸位素餐来说，毫不为过。</p><p>我是一周前才听人说美国银行90%以上的按揭贷款都是固定利率的，当时我的感受是震惊的，我无法相信，这种极其不专业和不严谨的行为，竟然发生在美国整个银行业。银行管理层竟然如此愚蠢迟钝，美国监管竟然如此毫无作为，事先没有任何风险警示和监管干预。</p><p>我查阅和求证了2天，发现真的是这样！</p><p>即便美联储已经开始快速加息，他们依然没有做出应对，愚蠢和迟钝得令人难以置信。</p><p>虽然很多小银行的死亡大概率难以避免，但本轮危机，完全不能跟2008年相比，对实体经济的影响远远小于2008年。就是银行自己的问题。</p><p>区别于2008年居民部门资产价格暴跌，杠杆崩溃重创。本轮居民部门不仅没有变坏，反而是变好了。美国企业部门，总体并不依赖银行体系融资，有着发达的直接融资市场。因为银行危机，长短利率下行，企业的融资成本反而下降，大企业甚至是受益的。这也是大型科技公司占比高的标普500指数近期为什么如此坚挺的原因。会有一些依赖银行的小企业受到伤害，但这在美国整个经济中比重不大。</p><p>区别于2008年，美国的系统重要性大银行位于风暴核心，本轮问题主要在区域银行。</p><p>美国的银行业总资产大约20万亿美元，区域银行占比1/3，总资产表大约7万亿。美国总的负债（政府+企业+居民）合计近70万亿，区域银行占比仅1/10。只要处理平稳，并不会对实体经济造成特别大的打击。</p><p>美国纳税人没有理由为这些愚蠢的区域银行管理层，股东买单。</p><p><b>所以，本轮银行危机，对实体经济的影响有限，远小于2008年。</b></p><p>但至于对金融市场的影响，不确定性则会高得多。</p><p>毕竟仅美国区域银行就由7万亿美元的资产负债表。还有情况类似的欧洲银行。</p><p>之前已经被合并的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>，其资产负债表之前多年萎缩，构成其脆弱的基础，而另一家资产负债表多年萎缩的大银行，是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>。（下图的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>，是用来衬托和对比他们的）</p><p>我还没有来得及细致的研究<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>的资产负债表细项。但大方向来说，一家高杠杆的大型金融机构长期缩表，一般情况，只要遇到金融条件收紧，都是很危险的。</p><p>而这些银行跟金融市场的联系广泛和复杂。各种隐秘的角落，都可能带来意想不到的冲击。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1bd941d41f41834af0053a4f02b8a7a\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>所以，未来一段时间，金融市场上，还是要小心一些。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610944563427","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国银行危机远未结束</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国银行危机远未结束\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-22 13:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI5OTgwNDI5MQ==&mid=2247485578&idx=1&sn=b3fdd691396f3843669357608392cfd5&chksm=ec91bb66dbe632709d7e8cf3880bfaf49887ba94dcd6ed3362380a1452e5a981a92b1e65054b&scene=126&sessionid=1679459585><strong>半夏投资</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>针对近期美国银行危机昨天，美国财长耶伦表示：如果有必要，联邦政府有意为更多中小型银行的存款提供担保支持。媒体报道：美国财政部正在研究监管机构是否有权在未经国会批准的情况下临时为高于FDIC投保上限的存款提供担保，猜测投保上限会翻倍，或者FDIC可能为所有存款提供保险。因此，美国银行股大涨，带动风险资产大涨。我的个人看法：美国小银行危机远未结束本轮美国的银行业危机有两个关键点：1，银行的风险管理存在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI5OTgwNDI5MQ==&mid=2247485578&idx=1&sn=b3fdd691396f3843669357608392cfd5&chksm=ec91bb66dbe632709d7e8cf3880bfaf49887ba94dcd6ed3362380a1452e5a981a92b1e65054b&scene=126&sessionid=1679459585\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4258cd0edd20f0c6d2f9cff3da54a1b4","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BAC":"美国银行","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0130103400.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA USD","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1201861165.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity PA SGD","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI5OTgwNDI5MQ==&mid=2247485578&idx=1&sn=b3fdd691396f3843669357608392cfd5&chksm=ec91bb66dbe632709d7e8cf3880bfaf49887ba94dcd6ed3362380a1452e5a981a92b1e65054b&scene=126&sessionid=1679459585","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163917622","content_text":"针对近期美国银行危机昨天，美国财长耶伦表示：如果有必要，联邦政府有意为更多中小型银行的存款提供担保支持。媒体报道：美国财政部正在研究监管机构是否有权在未经国会批准的情况下临时为高于FDIC投保上限的存款提供担保，猜测投保上限会翻倍，或者FDIC可能为所有存款提供保险。因此，美国银行股大涨，带动风险资产大涨。我的个人看法：美国小银行危机远未结束本轮美国的银行业危机有两个关键点：1，银行的风险管理存在严重的问题和漏洞，造成实质性资产负债表创伤美国银行业总体40%的资产是按揭贷款，基于按揭贷款的MBS，长期国债。因为几家大银行此类资产平均比例更低，仅20%左右，所以小银行的此类资产比例大于50%。美国90%以上的按揭贷款都是固定利率的，期限20-30年。因此，美国小银行50%以上的资产都是长期固定利率资产，粗略估计这部分资产久期大于10年。于是美国的银行面临着巨大的久期风险。作为对比，中国的银行业90%以上的按揭贷款都是浮动利率的。弹性而健康。随着过去一年美联储大幅加息，这些长期固定利率资产如果按照最新市场价格定价，已经贬值了20%以上（当然，银行在报表上把此类资产计入持有到期账户，账面并不体现亏损）。考虑到50%的占比，银行总资产如果按市场定价出售，平均贬值10%。而银行普遍是10倍以上杠杆的，所以如果就当前市场价格变现资产，很多美国小银行已经资不抵债，实质破产。并不仅仅是流动性问题。2，存款流失一家金融机构如果存在上面的情况，存量资产按市场价格实际破产，并不是一定会死。只要还能维持正常的资产增速，资产和负债健康增长，那新的优质资产就可以稀释之前的亏损资产。时间就能解决一切的问题。而且现在的问题是：美国全行业的存款在流失。这个存款流失并不是硅谷银行的风险爆发之后才发生的，而是在己之前已经持续了半年，并不是个别银行的现象，而是全行业总体的现象。本世纪以来，第一次，持续半年时间，全美银行业存款负增长。这背后的两个原因。1. 美国总体的货币增速在下行，已经转负。2. 美国银行的存款大多是无息和低息存款。以富国银行为例，存款成本仅不到0.5%。无息和低息存款占比一半。随着利率大幅上升，这些无息和低存款面临着极高的机会成本，开始向货币市场基金转移。当存款流失。一个银行如果要维持自己的资产负债表规模甚至增长，只能从市场上去使用一些高价负债，比如银行间市场的短期流动性，考虑到现在美国整个利率曲线是大幅倒挂的，短端明显高于长端，即便是匹配了新的资产，实现资产负债表增长，那新增资产负债也是倒挂的，也是饮鸠止渴。即便联邦政府为更多中小型银行的存款提供全额担保支持，只是短期遏制居民和企业从小银行挤兑，转移存款到大银行的行为，不能改变全行业存款下降的事实，不改变银行温水煮青蛙慢慢死的结果。而且，全额担保极大可能是会被国会反对的。因为逆向选择和道德风险无边无际。对国民的利益构成极大威胁。举个简化而极端的例子，如果存款完全政府兜底，那储户根本不需要辨别银行的风险和质地，谁的利率高就存谁那里。那么，我可以去美国开一家银行，高息揽储10个亿，都贷款给我妈的公司，我妈的公司可以雇我的女儿做CEO，每年给她发3个亿奖金，3年后之后，10个亿花光，公司破产。银行贷款收不回来，也破产，10亿存款损失由纳税人承担，但都输送给了我女儿。如果美国政府不能全额担保存款，那么存款从小银行流向大银行，加速小银行死亡，大概率还是依然会发生的。所以，除非美联储大幅降息到2%以下，低于大部分银行存量资产的利率水平，并继续大幅QE扩表，美国小银行的问题是无解的。但以上基本是不可能的。因为本轮银行危机，本质上就是美国的小银行自己的风险管理问题，如果他们当初发放的都是浮动利率贷款，而非固定的贷款全然，不可能有这样的结果反而会受益于加息带来的资产收益率上行。在这个过程中，实体经济不仅没有受害，反而是受益的。一个普通的美国家庭，相比疫情前，工资增长了20%以上。疫情前购买的房产已经大幅升值，但是每个月的月供维持不变。家庭的资产和可支配收入都是显著改善的。所以，美国的实体经济韧性十足，美国的通胀极其顽固。而银行就是老百姓的这种改善的对立面。一定程度可以说，这一轮美国的老百姓剪了银行的羊毛，割了银行的韭菜。但这不是老百姓故意干坏事，是银行自己太蠢，太迟钝，在风险管理上，用尸位素餐来说，毫不为过。我是一周前才听人说美国银行90%以上的按揭贷款都是固定利率的，当时我的感受是震惊的，我无法相信，这种极其不专业和不严谨的行为，竟然发生在美国整个银行业。银行管理层竟然如此愚蠢迟钝，美国监管竟然如此毫无作为，事先没有任何风险警示和监管干预。我查阅和求证了2天，发现真的是这样！即便美联储已经开始快速加息，他们依然没有做出应对，愚蠢和迟钝得令人难以置信。虽然很多小银行的死亡大概率难以避免，但本轮危机，完全不能跟2008年相比，对实体经济的影响远远小于2008年。就是银行自己的问题。区别于2008年居民部门资产价格暴跌，杠杆崩溃重创。本轮居民部门不仅没有变坏，反而是变好了。美国企业部门，总体并不依赖银行体系融资，有着发达的直接融资市场。因为银行危机，长短利率下行，企业的融资成本反而下降，大企业甚至是受益的。这也是大型科技公司占比高的标普500指数近期为什么如此坚挺的原因。会有一些依赖银行的小企业受到伤害，但这在美国整个经济中比重不大。区别于2008年，美国的系统重要性大银行位于风暴核心，本轮问题主要在区域银行。美国的银行业总资产大约20万亿美元，区域银行占比1/3，总资产表大约7万亿。美国总的负债（政府+企业+居民）合计近70万亿，区域银行占比仅1/10。只要处理平稳，并不会对实体经济造成特别大的打击。美国纳税人没有理由为这些愚蠢的区域银行管理层，股东买单。所以，本轮银行危机，对实体经济的影响有限，远小于2008年。但至于对金融市场的影响，不确定性则会高得多。毕竟仅美国区域银行就由7万亿美元的资产负债表。还有情况类似的欧洲银行。之前已经被合并的瑞士信贷，其资产负债表之前多年萎缩，构成其脆弱的基础，而另一家资产负债表多年萎缩的大银行，是德意志银行。（下图的摩根大通和汇丰，是用来衬托和对比他们的）我还没有来得及细致的研究德意志银行的资产负债表细项。但大方向来说，一家高杠杆的大型金融机构长期缩表，一般情况，只要遇到金融条件收紧，都是很危险的。而这些银行跟金融市场的联系广泛和复杂。各种隐秘的角落，都可能带来意想不到的冲击。所以，未来一段时间，金融市场上，还是要小心一些。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":621668415,"gmtCreate":1672246132037,"gmtModify":1672246133091,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ &nbsp;</a>没想到。。。。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ &nbsp;</a>没想到。。。。。","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 没想到。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/621668415","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623184511,"gmtCreate":1671118462933,"gmtModify":1671118463841,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/UCmain\">$SG人民币主连 2212(UCmain)$ &nbsp;</a>厉害试，就是不上7，死要面子活受罪","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/UCmain\">$SG人民币主连 2212(UCmain)$ &nbsp;</a>厉害试，就是不上7，死要面子活受罪","text":"$SG人民币主连 2212(UCmain)$ 厉害试，就是不上7，死要面子活受罪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623184511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623112924,"gmtCreate":1671115051968,"gmtModify":1671115441441,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ &nbsp;</a>会玩啊，骗了不少人，牛逼","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ &nbsp;</a>会玩啊，骗了不少人，牛逼","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 会玩啊，骗了不少人，牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623112924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623118357,"gmtCreate":1671114679879,"gmtModify":1671114793453,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ &nbsp;</a>牛逼，但我没看懂","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$ &nbsp;</a>牛逼，但我没看懂","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 牛逼，但我没看懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/623118357","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":685,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":956471050,"gmtCreate":1591782651370,"gmtModify":1704196877096,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>散户切记追涨杀跌，别听某些傻叉说什么及时止损，对于散户尤其水平比较低的，只能靠时间换空间，你唯一的赌注就是时间，而机构却因为压力不能长时间等待。追高做多被套了你就适当补仓，等待反弹到盈利，就减仓就可以。如果你做空被套也是同样的道理。小散们你们想下你们赔钱哪次不是因为割肉割的？？你再想想你不割肉的话是不是每次股票经过一段时间又回到了你理想的价格？当然这样操作前提是这种好公司的股票。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>散户切记追涨杀跌，别听某些傻叉说什么及时止损，对于散户尤其水平比较低的，只能靠时间换空间，你唯一的赌注就是时间，而机构却因为压力不能长时间等待。追高做多被套了你就适当补仓，等待反弹到盈利，就减仓就可以。如果你做空被套也是同样的道理。小散们你们想下你们赔钱哪次不是因为割肉割的？？你再想想你不割肉的话是不是每次股票经过一段时间又回到了你理想的价格？当然这样操作前提是这种好公司的股票。","text":"$波音(BA)$散户切记追涨杀跌，别听某些傻叉说什么及时止损，对于散户尤其水平比较低的，只能靠时间换空间，你唯一的赌注就是时间，而机构却因为压力不能长时间等待。追高做多被套了你就适当补仓，等待反弹到盈利，就减仓就可以。如果你做空被套也是同样的道理。小散们你们想下你们赔钱哪次不是因为割肉割的？？你再想想你不割肉的话是不是每次股票经过一段时间又回到了你理想的价格？当然这样操作前提是这种好公司的股票。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/956471050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3483705316734360","authorId":"3483705316734360","name":"hulanndy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你没做空过吧，做空不止损就等着爆仓强平吧。。。","text":"你没做空过吧，做空不止损就等着爆仓强平吧。。。","html":"你没做空过吧，做空不止损就等着爆仓强平吧。。。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952203233,"gmtCreate":1591971834722,"gmtModify":1704197857344,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>不要看老虎上推得任何新闻，全是做空美国的，你懂的，毕竟有任务。所以不要因为这些恐慌，反而它越报道坏消息就要越买。美国的实力。。自己想吧，美元供不应求。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>不要看老虎上推得任何新闻，全是做空美国的，你懂的，毕竟有任务。所以不要因为这些恐慌，反而它越报道坏消息就要越买。美国的实力。。自己想吧，美元供不应求。","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$不要看老虎上推得任何新闻，全是做空美国的，你懂的，毕竟有任务。所以不要因为这些恐慌，反而它越报道坏消息就要越买。美国的实力。。自己想吧，美元供不应求。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952203233","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3521290867831627","authorId":"3521290867831627","name":"liberty1776","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a964c58ccd35c6a97f4ba3b77ac3f56f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"也不是说越报道坏消息越要买，有任务是真的，黑美国也是真的，所以这些垃圾新闻和市场没啥关系，只是没有价值，你这一说倒把这些垃圾消升格升成了反向指标。其实很多英文新闻还是可以看的...","text":"也不是说越报道坏消息越要买，有任务是真的，黑美国也是真的，所以这些垃圾新闻和市场没啥关系，只是没有价值，你这一说倒把这些垃圾消升格升成了反向指标。其实很多英文新闻还是可以看的...","html":"也不是说越报道坏消息越要买，有任务是真的，黑美国也是真的，所以这些垃圾新闻和市场没啥关系，只是没有价值，你这一说倒把这些垃圾消升格升成了反向指标。其实很多英文新闻还是可以看的..."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335738805,"gmtCreate":1610640926407,"gmtModify":1703745942323,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>你们就这样吧一个卖假药的公司抬到这个高度？？良心不要了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>你们就这样吧一个卖假药的公司抬到这个高度？？良心不要了","text":"$百度(BIDU)$你们就这样吧一个卖假药的公司抬到这个高度？？良心不要了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335738805","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3556938341270452","authorId":"3556938341270452","name":"moonone","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b3f8ddeac9c8bccbff67e4e83709f1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"卖假药？有脑子黑好吧","text":"卖假药？有脑子黑好吧","html":"卖假药？有脑子黑好吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":934585015,"gmtCreate":1574353053837,"gmtModify":1704727826936,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>第四季度财报出来之前整体趋势会一直阴跌，庄现在不敢爆拉，会被查，再就是庄这次赚了不少了，一下跌20%，套死不少做多的，这段时间他们会歇一歇出去花天酒地，开游艇玩嫩模。。过段时间会更低价抄底，然后继续爆拉，再套一批。小散有记性吗？没有，只要股票涨就会盲目跟。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>第四季度财报出来之前整体趋势会一直阴跌，庄现在不敢爆拉，会被查，再就是庄这次赚了不少了，一下跌20%，套死不少做多的，这段时间他们会歇一歇出去花天酒地，开游艇玩嫩模。。过段时间会更低价抄底，然后继续爆拉，再套一批。小散有记性吗？没有，只要股票涨就会盲目跟。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$第四季度财报出来之前整体趋势会一直阴跌，庄现在不敢爆拉，会被查，再就是庄这次赚了不少了，一下跌20%，套死不少做多的，这段时间他们会歇一歇出去花天酒地，开游艇玩嫩模。。过段时间会更低价抄底，然后继续爆拉，再套一批。小散有记性吗？没有，只要股票涨就会盲目跟。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/934585015","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4952,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527057549986973","authorId":"3527057549986973","name":"yyhcsfy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"爆拉会被查是指什么？求指点","text":"爆拉会被查是指什么？求指点","html":"爆拉会被查是指什么？求指点"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":768324124082240,"gmtCreate":1687944113778,"gmtModify":1687944217688,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>今天必会杀空单","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>今天必会杀空单","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今天必会杀空单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/768324124082240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2108,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3461643882586533","authorId":"3461643882586533","name":"飘叶","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"我427的空，等着杀，我好怕","text":"我427的空，等着杀，我好怕","html":"我427的空，等着杀，我好怕"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979187643,"gmtCreate":1598021482982,"gmtModify":1704217723861,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>到底拼多多哪里便宜？？？同配置的苹果11，第一张淘宝的，第二张拼多多的，而且还是拼团价等人满了才能发货。。。。你们别骗我啊，我真的不知道拼多多的优势。。。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>到底拼多多哪里便宜？？？同配置的苹果11，第一张淘宝的，第二张拼多多的，而且还是拼团价等人满了才能发货。。。。你们别骗我啊，我真的不知道拼多多的优势。。。。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$到底拼多多哪里便宜？？？同配置的苹果11，第一张淘宝的，第二张拼多多的，而且还是拼团价等人满了才能发货。。。。你们别骗我啊，我真的不知道拼多多的优势。。。。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc476d950f18f5bc340e1a5d79213510","width":"1125","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979187643","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3542718573772996","authorId":"3542718573772996","name":"DDDDDerek","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"兄弟，你用一个广告推广的淘宝店铺的价格和pdd百亿补贴的价格相比...请问你是作为空头想忽悠还是单纯的分不清？[得意]","text":"兄弟，你用一个广告推广的淘宝店铺的价格和pdd百亿补贴的价格相比...请问你是作为空头想忽悠还是单纯的分不清？[得意]","html":"兄弟，你用一个广告推广的淘宝店铺的价格和pdd百亿补贴的价格相比...请问你是作为空头想忽悠还是单纯的分不清？[得意]"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952344240,"gmtCreate":1591883360180,"gmtModify":1704197423636,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>一万亿开始救市，今晚估计空军要哭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>一万亿开始救市，今晚估计空军要哭","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$一万亿开始救市，今晚估计空军要哭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952344240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3508855846268996","authorId":"3508855846268996","name":"鑫鑫鑫鑫鑫鑫鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52afbe623999c99de80e0cb385aca290","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"又来一万亿？？？","text":"又来一万亿？？？","html":"又来一万亿？？？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975102877,"gmtCreate":1600470602399,"gmtModify":1703821767182,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>说实话真的有点懵，贸易战你跌我理解，病毒跌我也理解，这次到底是因为什么呢？？也跌成这样？？跌幅已经和贸易战，和病毒时候一样了。。。。哎","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>说实话真的有点懵，贸易战你跌我理解，病毒跌我也理解，这次到底是因为什么呢？？也跌成这样？？跌幅已经和贸易战，和病毒时候一样了。。。。哎","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$说实话真的有点懵，贸易战你跌我理解，病毒跌我也理解，这次到底是因为什么呢？？也跌成这样？？跌幅已经和贸易战，和病毒时候一样了。。。。哎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975102877","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559246929060595","authorId":"3559246929060595","name":"fazhx","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"禁微信影响大的，估计短期还要下一点呢，盘后我都不敢抄底","text":"禁微信影响大的，估计短期还要下一点呢，盘后我都不敢抄底","html":"禁微信影响大的，估计短期还要下一点呢，盘后我都不敢抄底"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":934293983,"gmtCreate":1574294418842,"gmtModify":1704727651464,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>一直涨差点扛不住，亏了1000多美金，终于打回原形，赚了一点，虽然不多，但佩服自己这次的忍耐力。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>一直涨差点扛不住，亏了1000多美金，终于打回原形，赚了一点，虽然不多，但佩服自己这次的忍耐力。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$一直涨差点扛不住，亏了1000多美金，终于打回原形，赚了一点，虽然不多，但佩服自己这次的忍耐力。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b40005b526a3d1ae047e36421023258d","width":"1125","height":"2001"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b40005b526a3d1ae047e36421023258d","width":"1125","height":"2001"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b40005b526a3d1ae047e36421023258d","width":"1125","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/934293983","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3437864438698016","authorId":"3437864438698016","name":"小do","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"资金小，保险的买法就是这样，不然深套没发操作了。","text":"资金小，保险的买法就是这样，不然深套没发操作了。","html":"资金小，保险的买法就是这样，不然深套没发操作了。"}],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947166896,"gmtCreate":1597240836916,"gmtModify":1704215044069,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>请问这个公司和拼多多一样靠补贴拉人吗？？有知道的不","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>请问这个公司和拼多多一样靠补贴拉人吗？？有知道的不","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$请问这个公司和拼多多一样靠补贴拉人吗？？有知道的不","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947166896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3463363526449063","authorId":"3463363526449063","name":"alexye","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"应该说是内推给钱多，一堆员工发内推贴的","text":"应该说是内推给钱多，一堆员工发内推贴的","html":"应该说是内推给钱多，一堆员工发内推贴的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944106992,"gmtCreate":1596790158616,"gmtModify":1704213641714,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>美国禁腾讯，对sea有影响吗？？？怎么跌的这么厉害？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>美国禁腾讯，对sea有影响吗？？？怎么跌的这么厉害？","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$美国禁腾讯，对sea有影响吗？？？怎么跌的这么厉害？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944106992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547709187469258","authorId":"3547709187469258","name":"69岁的老同志","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbfc965e1dec9632f4d03b604b1682bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"一个庄家，操作当然一起","text":"一个庄家，操作当然一起","html":"一个庄家，操作当然一起"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979111284,"gmtCreate":1598020087248,"gmtModify":1704217700473,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>停下补贴就直接死的公司。。一点护城河没有，都是薅羊毛的，最低级的推销方式就是低价策略。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>停下补贴就直接死的公司。。一点护城河没有，都是薅羊毛的，最低级的推销方式就是低价策略。。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$停下补贴就直接死的公司。。一点护城河没有，都是薅羊毛的，最低级的推销方式就是低价策略。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979111284","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3552918039727369","authorId":"3552918039727369","name":"HelloDean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fca1c9517935ca17e4db1ad96cd1837","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"这么简单，淘宝 京东为啥推了特价版仍没阻击成功？ 为啥别的公司无法复制？ 一个这么牛逼的团队被说成只会玩补贴、搞最低级推销的","text":"这么简单，淘宝 京东为啥推了特价版仍没阻击成功？ 为啥别的公司无法复制？ 一个这么牛逼的团队被说成只会玩补贴、搞最低级推销的","html":"这么简单，淘宝 京东为啥推了特价版仍没阻击成功？ 为啥别的公司无法复制？ 一个这么牛逼的团队被说成只会玩补贴、搞最低级推销的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381151180,"gmtCreate":1612948392940,"gmtModify":1703767273478,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>没看懂，把这些内容删了不就完事了？？至于这么大动干戈？？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>没看懂，把这些内容删了不就完事了？？至于这么大动干戈？？","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$没看懂，把这些内容删了不就完事了？？至于这么大动干戈？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381151180","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499473596380256","authorId":"3499473596380256","name":"东方华尔街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28e333a8a8b069d2a813f598c9fb2be","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"共chan共七是随便说的吗","text":"共chan共七是随便说的吗","html":"共chan共七是随便说的吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944493923,"gmtCreate":1597071381762,"gmtModify":1704214308418,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华为手机用户没隐私。。随时会被查看，苹果不会。你说大家为什么买苹果？","listText":"华为手机用户没隐私。。随时会被查看，苹果不会。你说大家为什么买苹果？","text":"华为手机用户没隐私。。随时会被查看，苹果不会。你说大家为什么买苹果？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944493923","repostId":"1108331363","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108331363","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1597070946,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108331363?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-10 22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果要惨了？！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108331363","media":"格隆汇","summary":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/397522","content":"<p>由美方挑起的美中摩擦愈演愈烈。</p>\n<p>从领事馆纷争，到Tiktok遭封禁，再到“净网计划”，美国的霸权之手如今又伸向了微信。</p>\n<p>上周四（6日），美国总统特朗普签署行政令，<b>称TikTok和微信对美国国家安全构成威胁</b>，将在45天后禁止任何美国公司或个人与TikTok母公司字节跳动以及腾讯控股涉及WeChat的相关交易。</p>\n<p>一时间，关于“卸载微信还是换手机”之中二选一的话题成为引爆朋友圈的热门焦点。</p>\n<p>受此消息的影响，腾讯当日应声下跌，今日继续显出颓势，收跌近5%，两日累计蒸发超5000亿港元，最新市值48102亿港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaddb8590256c51fbbd3b46e60fbc217\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>虽说微信在美国的收入占比非常小，但就腾讯的游戏业务来说，海外市场占其收入20%至25%，而美国作为其主要市场，后续或对其业绩产生不确定性影响。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103afac024691c5e99895156b67c4f3e\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"523\">资料来源：官方公告</p>\n<p>玩味的是，<b>刚刚坐稳全球市值第一宝座的苹果也受到了拖累，结束了财报超预期而带来的连日上涨之势</b>，股价在6日下跌2.27%，最新市值为19003亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa6f004a7052914b93960181e0c7ee5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>美国这一出击显然也伤害了自家企业的利益。</p>\n<p>毕竟一旦特朗普的行政令真正落地，禁止所有涉及微信的交易，<b>中国作为苹果公司重要战略市场之一，其iPhone手机销售以及相关供应链势必受到负面影响</b>。</p>\n<p>“杀敌三千，自损一万”，美国这一霸权主义可谓是表露得淋漓尽致。</p>\n<p><b>苹果难守全球市值第一？</b></p>\n<p>苹果的下跌充分了市场的预期情绪。</p>\n<p>虽然<b>iPhone等硬件业务虽不再是其主要发展重心，但目前依旧是苹果的重要营收组成部分</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “本季度iPhone营收264.18亿美元，同比增长1.66%，高于市场预期（223.7亿美元）。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>苹果收入业务构成情况</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f155613d207b56ab565a3b1481d8c36\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"372\">数据来源：Apple disclosures</p>\n<p>尤其是在疫情时期，这一业务并没有“拖后腿”，<b>薄利多销为核心的低价策略使得苹果手机销量的逆势增长</b>，有效抵消了疫情期间人们消费信心下降带来的消极影响。</p>\n<p>根据2020年全球智能手机二季度出货量的数据显示，华为成功登顶，出货量5580万部，但同比下降5.1%；三星紧随其后，出货量为5420万部，同比下降28.9%。；<b>而苹果则是逆势同比上涨11.2%。这主要归功于于iPhone中国市场零售销量达到1300万部，同比增长62%，环比增长225%，远超其它品牌。</b></p>\n<p>2020年第二季度全球智能手机出货量情况</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23af9bd461e58a4939e3e5fe54ba9d5\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"289\">数据来源：IDC</p>\n<p>苹果已不再是当年那个光卖手机的公司了，它已然走出舒适圈，<b>试图扩大 IOS 生态系统的覆盖范围</b>，通过业绩增长爆发力强的服务业务，为公司的可持续性盈利助力。</p>\n<p>为实现这一目标，它依旧<b>需要以iPhone为首的大量硬件终端的售出去加固服务收入，加强用户的黏性，</b>尤其是在服务业务增速创下了2015年以来新低的这一时刻。</p>\n<p>而在全球化浪潮之下，<b>中国市场已然成为苹果业绩增长的“第二摇篮”</b>，无论是必要硬件收入，还是成为业绩重要支撑的服务业务，它无法放过中国市场这一潜力大蛋糕，且需要这一市场上生产制造供应链的“撑腰”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <b>2019年中国区App Store收入达到2460亿美元，约合人民币17256.9亿，占收入总额的47.4%，为全球收入贡献最高的市场</b>。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>苹果公司各地区营收占比</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e82e2396cb9a7bd13255f32cc0bdcc8\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"247\">数据来源：信达证券</p>\n<p>其中，iPhone的销量更是依赖于此，要知道中国市场约占iPhone销量的20%，<b>一旦微信遭到“封杀”，对苹果的损失不可想象。</b></p>\n<p>天风国际郭明錤有测算，若苹果公司仅仅移除的是美国App Store上的微信，那么<b>预估iPhone出货量将下调3–6%</b>，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等产品的年出货量则下调低于3%；</p>\n<p>若苹果公司移除全球App Store上的微信，则苹果硬件在中国市场的出货将出现明显衰退，<b>预计iPhone的年出货量将下调25–30%</b>，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等年出货量则下调15–25%。</p>\n<p>对于国人来说，没有微信的iPhone等于“无用之物”，换华为不香吗？</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38fb2efb4988f8ae7cf2b59e4e18ff8\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"604\">数据来源：微博</p>\n<p>即便后期5G版iPhone的面世也很可能无法撼动这一选择，更何况该款产品或继续“姗姗来迟”。</p>\n<p>目前苹果在标准普尔500指数中的权重达到6.5%，<b>已然成为40年以来对标普500指数影响最大的成分股。一旦失去中国市场的潜在预期，且不论对苹果造成多大打击，美股走势、乃至美国经济都可能受到较大影响。</b></p>\n<p>美股风险波动性情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a883ae14a29371f5e815e60322dcc67\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"276\"></p>\n<p><b>来自美国霸权主义的恐慌</b></p>\n<p>显然，当美国亲手点燃这把外交之火，针对腾讯等公司进行打压之时，自己也无法独善其身。</p>\n<p>这个道理美国未必不懂。</p>\n<p>但它依旧一意孤行，选择这一激进的手段去无差别与中国科技企业“针锋相对”，就值得深究了。</p>\n<p>仅仅是为了美名其曰的“防止国家安全隐患”？</p>\n<p>又或者是川普为了大选而赢得民心的“不择手段”？</p>\n<p>往深层次看，更可能是<b>源自一种埋藏在其种族基因里的恐惧，即美国害怕失去其所谓的霸权地位，或者说它正在失去。</b></p>\n<p>美国二季度GDP增速</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da136f21be4b66f22674b8c932e0a8e0\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"275\">数据来源：开源证券</p>\n<p>2020年新冠疫情的突发打了美国一个措手不及，无论是无视病毒风险使得其反复爆发，还是弗洛伊德事件激化种族矛盾，又或是美国经济陷入二战以来的衰退...这一系列的颓势都表明了：<b>美国发展进入了一定的停滞期，且趋于悲观。</b></p>\n<p>2020年IMF世界经济增速预测</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d0bd28c354eff67978cddad21cd380b\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\">数据来源：民生证券</p>\n<p>而无论何时，科技是第一生产力，<b>谁能拔得科技头筹，谁就拥有强势的话语权。</b></p>\n<p>长久以来，美国占据着全球科技领域的制高点，在以苹果为首的科技巨头的庇护之下展露着自己的野望。</p>\n<p>然而，此一时彼一时。</p>\n<p>在全球化浪潮之下，我国经济实力稳中有进发展，科技水平日益提升，已步入世界前列，中美两国综合实力进一步缩小，再加上国内疫情有效受控，人民生活步入正轨，而<b>这一光明形势却刺激了美国的“被害妄想意识”</b>——严重威胁美国的全球霸权，进而引发了近年来美国对华为等先进企业的频繁打压。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “美国的生存法则就是扩张，即使我们要违背它，也不可能。”——美国总统布坎南\n</blockquote>\n<p>这种意识是由来已久的。其诞生于西方独有的文化土壤里，成长于基于权力和扩张意识的霸权主义和强权政治，通过近期一系列的言论和政策攻势便可以发现，美国以自我为中心<b>，即便是自己元气大伤，也要全面霸凌并打压以中国为首的国家的崛起。</b></p>\n<p>这一现状却会让人们明白，<b>现在的美国发展确实遭遇瓶颈</b>，不限制其他国家的发展就无法凸显自己。而如此一来，这在国际战略格局日益复杂的今天，它已经在这场假想性十足的竞争中不占优势。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>都说新时代新气象，而从美国近期的打压行径可以看出，它依旧没有跳出自己的强权政治世界里，利用国家力量，不惜自身受损，也要发动“外交战”去“绑架”他国。</p>\n<p>这不仅加剧了中美两国的紧张关系，使其濒临脱钩边缘，也使得国际政治环境的不稳定性加剧，不利于疫情时期全球发展进程的复苏。</p>\n<p>而<b>这一由单方挑事的纷争只能暴露了美国的不自信</b>，同时侧面反映了：在新一轮科技革命里，我国手握着通向未来科技之路的正确钥匙，后期会坚持秉持开放与合作的态度，应对和消解其负面效应，道路或许曲折，但路的尽头光明依旧。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果要惨了？！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果要惨了？！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-10 22:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>由美方挑起的美中摩擦愈演愈烈。</p>\n<p>从领事馆纷争，到Tiktok遭封禁，再到“净网计划”，美国的霸权之手如今又伸向了微信。</p>\n<p>上周四（6日），美国总统特朗普签署行政令，<b>称TikTok和微信对美国国家安全构成威胁</b>，将在45天后禁止任何美国公司或个人与TikTok母公司字节跳动以及腾讯控股涉及WeChat的相关交易。</p>\n<p>一时间，关于“卸载微信还是换手机”之中二选一的话题成为引爆朋友圈的热门焦点。</p>\n<p>受此消息的影响，腾讯当日应声下跌，今日继续显出颓势，收跌近5%，两日累计蒸发超5000亿港元，最新市值48102亿港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaddb8590256c51fbbd3b46e60fbc217\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>虽说微信在美国的收入占比非常小，但就腾讯的游戏业务来说，海外市场占其收入20%至25%，而美国作为其主要市场，后续或对其业绩产生不确定性影响。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103afac024691c5e99895156b67c4f3e\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"523\">资料来源：官方公告</p>\n<p>玩味的是，<b>刚刚坐稳全球市值第一宝座的苹果也受到了拖累，结束了财报超预期而带来的连日上涨之势</b>，股价在6日下跌2.27%，最新市值为19003亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa6f004a7052914b93960181e0c7ee5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>美国这一出击显然也伤害了自家企业的利益。</p>\n<p>毕竟一旦特朗普的行政令真正落地，禁止所有涉及微信的交易，<b>中国作为苹果公司重要战略市场之一，其iPhone手机销售以及相关供应链势必受到负面影响</b>。</p>\n<p>“杀敌三千，自损一万”，美国这一霸权主义可谓是表露得淋漓尽致。</p>\n<p><b>苹果难守全球市值第一？</b></p>\n<p>苹果的下跌充分了市场的预期情绪。</p>\n<p>虽然<b>iPhone等硬件业务虽不再是其主要发展重心，但目前依旧是苹果的重要营收组成部分</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “本季度iPhone营收264.18亿美元，同比增长1.66%，高于市场预期（223.7亿美元）。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>苹果收入业务构成情况</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f155613d207b56ab565a3b1481d8c36\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"372\">数据来源：Apple disclosures</p>\n<p>尤其是在疫情时期，这一业务并没有“拖后腿”，<b>薄利多销为核心的低价策略使得苹果手机销量的逆势增长</b>，有效抵消了疫情期间人们消费信心下降带来的消极影响。</p>\n<p>根据2020年全球智能手机二季度出货量的数据显示，华为成功登顶，出货量5580万部，但同比下降5.1%；三星紧随其后，出货量为5420万部，同比下降28.9%。；<b>而苹果则是逆势同比上涨11.2%。这主要归功于于iPhone中国市场零售销量达到1300万部，同比增长62%，环比增长225%，远超其它品牌。</b></p>\n<p>2020年第二季度全球智能手机出货量情况</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23af9bd461e58a4939e3e5fe54ba9d5\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"289\">数据来源：IDC</p>\n<p>苹果已不再是当年那个光卖手机的公司了，它已然走出舒适圈，<b>试图扩大 IOS 生态系统的覆盖范围</b>，通过业绩增长爆发力强的服务业务，为公司的可持续性盈利助力。</p>\n<p>为实现这一目标，它依旧<b>需要以iPhone为首的大量硬件终端的售出去加固服务收入，加强用户的黏性，</b>尤其是在服务业务增速创下了2015年以来新低的这一时刻。</p>\n<p>而在全球化浪潮之下，<b>中国市场已然成为苹果业绩增长的“第二摇篮”</b>，无论是必要硬件收入，还是成为业绩重要支撑的服务业务，它无法放过中国市场这一潜力大蛋糕，且需要这一市场上生产制造供应链的“撑腰”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <b>2019年中国区App Store收入达到2460亿美元，约合人民币17256.9亿，占收入总额的47.4%，为全球收入贡献最高的市场</b>。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>苹果公司各地区营收占比</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e82e2396cb9a7bd13255f32cc0bdcc8\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"247\">数据来源：信达证券</p>\n<p>其中，iPhone的销量更是依赖于此，要知道中国市场约占iPhone销量的20%，<b>一旦微信遭到“封杀”，对苹果的损失不可想象。</b></p>\n<p>天风国际郭明錤有测算，若苹果公司仅仅移除的是美国App Store上的微信，那么<b>预估iPhone出货量将下调3–6%</b>，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等产品的年出货量则下调低于3%；</p>\n<p>若苹果公司移除全球App Store上的微信，则苹果硬件在中国市场的出货将出现明显衰退，<b>预计iPhone的年出货量将下调25–30%</b>，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等年出货量则下调15–25%。</p>\n<p>对于国人来说，没有微信的iPhone等于“无用之物”，换华为不香吗？</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38fb2efb4988f8ae7cf2b59e4e18ff8\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"604\">数据来源：微博</p>\n<p>即便后期5G版iPhone的面世也很可能无法撼动这一选择，更何况该款产品或继续“姗姗来迟”。</p>\n<p>目前苹果在标准普尔500指数中的权重达到6.5%，<b>已然成为40年以来对标普500指数影响最大的成分股。一旦失去中国市场的潜在预期，且不论对苹果造成多大打击，美股走势、乃至美国经济都可能受到较大影响。</b></p>\n<p>美股风险波动性情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a883ae14a29371f5e815e60322dcc67\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"276\"></p>\n<p><b>来自美国霸权主义的恐慌</b></p>\n<p>显然，当美国亲手点燃这把外交之火，针对腾讯等公司进行打压之时，自己也无法独善其身。</p>\n<p>这个道理美国未必不懂。</p>\n<p>但它依旧一意孤行，选择这一激进的手段去无差别与中国科技企业“针锋相对”，就值得深究了。</p>\n<p>仅仅是为了美名其曰的“防止国家安全隐患”？</p>\n<p>又或者是川普为了大选而赢得民心的“不择手段”？</p>\n<p>往深层次看，更可能是<b>源自一种埋藏在其种族基因里的恐惧，即美国害怕失去其所谓的霸权地位，或者说它正在失去。</b></p>\n<p>美国二季度GDP增速</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da136f21be4b66f22674b8c932e0a8e0\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"275\">数据来源：开源证券</p>\n<p>2020年新冠疫情的突发打了美国一个措手不及，无论是无视病毒风险使得其反复爆发，还是弗洛伊德事件激化种族矛盾，又或是美国经济陷入二战以来的衰退...这一系列的颓势都表明了：<b>美国发展进入了一定的停滞期，且趋于悲观。</b></p>\n<p>2020年IMF世界经济增速预测</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d0bd28c354eff67978cddad21cd380b\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\">数据来源：民生证券</p>\n<p>而无论何时，科技是第一生产力，<b>谁能拔得科技头筹，谁就拥有强势的话语权。</b></p>\n<p>长久以来，美国占据着全球科技领域的制高点，在以苹果为首的科技巨头的庇护之下展露着自己的野望。</p>\n<p>然而，此一时彼一时。</p>\n<p>在全球化浪潮之下，我国经济实力稳中有进发展，科技水平日益提升，已步入世界前列，中美两国综合实力进一步缩小，再加上国内疫情有效受控，人民生活步入正轨，而<b>这一光明形势却刺激了美国的“被害妄想意识”</b>——严重威胁美国的全球霸权，进而引发了近年来美国对华为等先进企业的频繁打压。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “美国的生存法则就是扩张，即使我们要违背它，也不可能。”——美国总统布坎南\n</blockquote>\n<p>这种意识是由来已久的。其诞生于西方独有的文化土壤里，成长于基于权力和扩张意识的霸权主义和强权政治，通过近期一系列的言论和政策攻势便可以发现，美国以自我为中心<b>，即便是自己元气大伤，也要全面霸凌并打压以中国为首的国家的崛起。</b></p>\n<p>这一现状却会让人们明白，<b>现在的美国发展确实遭遇瓶颈</b>，不限制其他国家的发展就无法凸显自己。而如此一来，这在国际战略格局日益复杂的今天，它已经在这场假想性十足的竞争中不占优势。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>都说新时代新气象，而从美国近期的打压行径可以看出，它依旧没有跳出自己的强权政治世界里，利用国家力量，不惜自身受损，也要发动“外交战”去“绑架”他国。</p>\n<p>这不仅加剧了中美两国的紧张关系，使其濒临脱钩边缘，也使得国际政治环境的不稳定性加剧，不利于疫情时期全球发展进程的复苏。</p>\n<p>而<b>这一由单方挑事的纷争只能暴露了美国的不自信</b>，同时侧面反映了：在新一轮科技革命里，我国手握着通向未来科技之路的正确钥匙，后期会坚持秉持开放与合作的态度，应对和消解其负面效应，道路或许曲折，但路的尽头光明依旧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7da851f3a1d7bfb503564448d4dfdc","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108331363","content_text":"由美方挑起的美中摩擦愈演愈烈。\n从领事馆纷争，到Tiktok遭封禁，再到“净网计划”，美国的霸权之手如今又伸向了微信。\n上周四（6日），美国总统特朗普签署行政令，称TikTok和微信对美国国家安全构成威胁，将在45天后禁止任何美国公司或个人与TikTok母公司字节跳动以及腾讯控股涉及WeChat的相关交易。\n一时间，关于“卸载微信还是换手机”之中二选一的话题成为引爆朋友圈的热门焦点。\n受此消息的影响，腾讯当日应声下跌，今日继续显出颓势，收跌近5%，两日累计蒸发超5000亿港元，最新市值48102亿港元。\n\n虽说微信在美国的收入占比非常小，但就腾讯的游戏业务来说，海外市场占其收入20%至25%，而美国作为其主要市场，后续或对其业绩产生不确定性影响。\n资料来源：官方公告\n玩味的是，刚刚坐稳全球市值第一宝座的苹果也受到了拖累，结束了财报超预期而带来的连日上涨之势，股价在6日下跌2.27%，最新市值为19003亿美元。\n\n美国这一出击显然也伤害了自家企业的利益。\n毕竟一旦特朗普的行政令真正落地，禁止所有涉及微信的交易，中国作为苹果公司重要战略市场之一，其iPhone手机销售以及相关供应链势必受到负面影响。\n“杀敌三千，自损一万”，美国这一霸权主义可谓是表露得淋漓尽致。\n苹果难守全球市值第一？\n苹果的下跌充分了市场的预期情绪。\n虽然iPhone等硬件业务虽不再是其主要发展重心，但目前依旧是苹果的重要营收组成部分。\n\n “本季度iPhone营收264.18亿美元，同比增长1.66%，高于市场预期（223.7亿美元）。”——公开数据\n\n苹果收入业务构成情况\n数据来源：Apple disclosures\n尤其是在疫情时期，这一业务并没有“拖后腿”，薄利多销为核心的低价策略使得苹果手机销量的逆势增长，有效抵消了疫情期间人们消费信心下降带来的消极影响。\n根据2020年全球智能手机二季度出货量的数据显示，华为成功登顶，出货量5580万部，但同比下降5.1%；三星紧随其后，出货量为5420万部，同比下降28.9%。；而苹果则是逆势同比上涨11.2%。这主要归功于于iPhone中国市场零售销量达到1300万部，同比增长62%，环比增长225%，远超其它品牌。\n2020年第二季度全球智能手机出货量情况\n数据来源：IDC\n苹果已不再是当年那个光卖手机的公司了，它已然走出舒适圈，试图扩大 IOS 生态系统的覆盖范围，通过业绩增长爆发力强的服务业务，为公司的可持续性盈利助力。\n为实现这一目标，它依旧需要以iPhone为首的大量硬件终端的售出去加固服务收入，加强用户的黏性，尤其是在服务业务增速创下了2015年以来新低的这一时刻。\n而在全球化浪潮之下，中国市场已然成为苹果业绩增长的“第二摇篮”，无论是必要硬件收入，还是成为业绩重要支撑的服务业务，它无法放过中国市场这一潜力大蛋糕，且需要这一市场上生产制造供应链的“撑腰”。\n\n “\n 2019年中国区App Store收入达到2460亿美元，约合人民币17256.9亿，占收入总额的47.4%，为全球收入贡献最高的市场。”——公开数据\n\n苹果公司各地区营收占比\n数据来源：信达证券\n其中，iPhone的销量更是依赖于此，要知道中国市场约占iPhone销量的20%，一旦微信遭到“封杀”，对苹果的损失不可想象。\n天风国际郭明錤有测算，若苹果公司仅仅移除的是美国App Store上的微信，那么预估iPhone出货量将下调3–6%，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等产品的年出货量则下调低于3%；\n若苹果公司移除全球App Store上的微信，则苹果硬件在中国市场的出货将出现明显衰退，预计iPhone的年出货量将下调25–30%，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等年出货量则下调15–25%。\n对于国人来说，没有微信的iPhone等于“无用之物”，换华为不香吗？\n数据来源：微博\n即便后期5G版iPhone的面世也很可能无法撼动这一选择，更何况该款产品或继续“姗姗来迟”。\n目前苹果在标准普尔500指数中的权重达到6.5%，已然成为40年以来对标普500指数影响最大的成分股。一旦失去中国市场的潜在预期，且不论对苹果造成多大打击，美股走势、乃至美国经济都可能受到较大影响。\n美股风险波动性情况\n\n来自美国霸权主义的恐慌\n显然，当美国亲手点燃这把外交之火，针对腾讯等公司进行打压之时，自己也无法独善其身。\n这个道理美国未必不懂。\n但它依旧一意孤行，选择这一激进的手段去无差别与中国科技企业“针锋相对”，就值得深究了。\n仅仅是为了美名其曰的“防止国家安全隐患”？\n又或者是川普为了大选而赢得民心的“不择手段”？\n往深层次看，更可能是源自一种埋藏在其种族基因里的恐惧，即美国害怕失去其所谓的霸权地位，或者说它正在失去。\n美国二季度GDP增速\n数据来源：开源证券\n2020年新冠疫情的突发打了美国一个措手不及，无论是无视病毒风险使得其反复爆发，还是弗洛伊德事件激化种族矛盾，又或是美国经济陷入二战以来的衰退...这一系列的颓势都表明了：美国发展进入了一定的停滞期，且趋于悲观。\n2020年IMF世界经济增速预测\n数据来源：民生证券\n而无论何时，科技是第一生产力，谁能拔得科技头筹，谁就拥有强势的话语权。\n长久以来，美国占据着全球科技领域的制高点，在以苹果为首的科技巨头的庇护之下展露着自己的野望。\n然而，此一时彼一时。\n在全球化浪潮之下，我国经济实力稳中有进发展，科技水平日益提升，已步入世界前列，中美两国综合实力进一步缩小，再加上国内疫情有效受控，人民生活步入正轨，而这一光明形势却刺激了美国的“被害妄想意识”——严重威胁美国的全球霸权，进而引发了近年来美国对华为等先进企业的频繁打压。\n\n “美国的生存法则就是扩张，即使我们要违背它，也不可能。”——美国总统布坎南\n\n这种意识是由来已久的。其诞生于西方独有的文化土壤里，成长于基于权力和扩张意识的霸权主义和强权政治，通过近期一系列的言论和政策攻势便可以发现，美国以自我为中心，即便是自己元气大伤，也要全面霸凌并打压以中国为首的国家的崛起。\n这一现状却会让人们明白，现在的美国发展确实遭遇瓶颈，不限制其他国家的发展就无法凸显自己。而如此一来，这在国际战略格局日益复杂的今天，它已经在这场假想性十足的竞争中不占优势。\n结语\n都说新时代新气象，而从美国近期的打压行径可以看出，它依旧没有跳出自己的强权政治世界里，利用国家力量，不惜自身受损，也要发动“外交战”去“绑架”他国。\n这不仅加剧了中美两国的紧张关系，使其濒临脱钩边缘，也使得国际政治环境的不稳定性加剧，不利于疫情时期全球发展进程的复苏。\n而这一由单方挑事的纷争只能暴露了美国的不自信，同时侧面反映了：在新一轮科技革命里，我国手握着通向未来科技之路的正确钥匙，后期会坚持秉持开放与合作的态度，应对和消解其负面效应，道路或许曲折，但路的尽头光明依旧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我已放弃安卓系统多年，求科普详情？","text":"我已放弃安卓系统多年，求科普详情？","html":"我已放弃安卓系统多年，求科普详情？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979085713,"gmtCreate":1597933390532,"gmtModify":1704217326992,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>这家公司目前瞎整一堆乱七八糟的app，你好好农好淘宝就可以了，把天猫分开这么说吧，也是个并不成功的例子，你干嘛非要客户多下载一个app？？？。又来个特价版，聚划算，你有病吗？？拼多多是烂，但人家没像你整得一堆乱七八糟的东西，app要做减法，懂吗？？你把客户整得好乱啊。个人建议，你就一个淘宝，一个天猫，一个1688就极限了，不要再瞎弄app了，真的我的脑子好乱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>这家公司目前瞎整一堆乱七八糟的app，你好好农好淘宝就可以了，把天猫分开这么说吧，也是个并不成功的例子，你干嘛非要客户多下载一个app？？？。又来个特价版，聚划算，你有病吗？？拼多多是烂，但人家没像你整得一堆乱七八糟的东西，app要做减法，懂吗？？你把客户整得好乱啊。个人建议，你就一个淘宝，一个天猫，一个1688就极限了，不要再瞎弄app了，真的我的脑子好乱","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$这家公司目前瞎整一堆乱七八糟的app，你好好农好淘宝就可以了，把天猫分开这么说吧，也是个并不成功的例子，你干嘛非要客户多下载一个app？？？。又来个特价版，聚划算，你有病吗？？拼多多是烂，但人家没像你整得一堆乱七八糟的东西，app要做减法，懂吗？？你把客户整得好乱啊。个人建议，你就一个淘宝，一个天猫，一个1688就极限了，不要再瞎弄app了，真的我的脑子好乱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979085713","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548231844240896","authorId":"3548231844240896","name":"留美小韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a62dbbd322377fcc7c0533fb8875bde","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"跌了什么分析都能出来 涨了什么牛都能吹起来","text":"跌了什么分析都能出来 涨了什么牛都能吹起来","html":"跌了什么分析都能出来 涨了什么牛都能吹起来"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":919307266,"gmtCreate":1576467092055,"gmtModify":1704271768532,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>抓紧看，一会被删了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>抓紧看，一会被删了","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$抓紧看，一会被删了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f53c31b1099b6f3271336c4d33fd5418","width":"1125","height":"2001"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/919307266","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3478516856063622","authorId":"3478516856063622","name":"Powerdog","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c66cafdee7bf6c173ad9f82e81d17a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你说的完全错误，你对PDD企业模式和用户体验一无所知","text":"你说的完全错误，你对PDD企业模式和用户体验一无所知","html":"你说的完全错误，你对PDD企业模式和用户体验一无所知"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399320753,"gmtCreate":1605950206572,"gmtModify":1703840568081,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>瘦死骆驼比马大。。见识到了，拼多多虽然抢了一些流量，但，没人会卸载淘宝，拼多多始终不像商场，一直用各种下单优惠，做任务提现，拉人提现，这样的方式，是，很香，但很累，也很low，拿不出手，有不少人被一些提现任务忽悠了，也有一小部分人在拼多多提现任务完成了，拼到了免费宝贝。。我家免费得过一台烤箱，但真的很累，200元的东西我把所有的亲朋好友都打扰了，脸上真的挂不住，很尴尬，很累，没有那种成就感，静下心来想想为了几百元的东西。。我有这个劲头用在工作不好？拼多多不会死，但别妄想超越淘宝，不可能！品牌的东西可以不上拼多多，但一定会在淘宝开店。就因为连客户自己也知道淘宝正规。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>瘦死骆驼比马大。。见识到了，拼多多虽然抢了一些流量，但，没人会卸载淘宝，拼多多始终不像商场，一直用各种下单优惠，做任务提现，拉人提现，这样的方式，是，很香，但很累，也很low，拿不出手，有不少人被一些提现任务忽悠了，也有一小部分人在拼多多提现任务完成了，拼到了免费宝贝。。我家免费得过一台烤箱，但真的很累，200元的东西我把所有的亲朋好友都打扰了，脸上真的挂不住，很尴尬，很累，没有那种成就感，静下心来想想为了几百元的东西。。我有这个劲头用在工作不好？拼多多不会死，但别妄想超越淘宝，不可能！品牌的东西可以不上拼多多，但一定会在淘宝开店。就因为连客户自己也知道淘宝正规。","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$瘦死骆驼比马大。。见识到了，拼多多虽然抢了一些流量，但，没人会卸载淘宝，拼多多始终不像商场，一直用各种下单优惠，做任务提现，拉人提现，这样的方式，是，很香，但很累，也很low，拿不出手，有不少人被一些提现任务忽悠了，也有一小部分人在拼多多提现任务完成了，拼到了免费宝贝。。我家免费得过一台烤箱，但真的很累，200元的东西我把所有的亲朋好友都打扰了，脸上真的挂不住，很尴尬，很累，没有那种成就感，静下心来想想为了几百元的东西。。我有这个劲头用在工作不好？拼多多不会死，但别妄想超越淘宝，不可能！品牌的东西可以不上拼多多，但一定会在淘宝开店。就因为连客户自己也知道淘宝正规。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399320753","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436825511","authorId":"3562670436825511","name":"上了飞机老师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f05edd9e1dfe2801c7d5b00683313e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"特斯拉不让pdd提车也是出于品牌不对接的考虑。狮子打个盹猴儿就说自己是大王，这不对。","text":"特斯拉不让pdd提车也是出于品牌不对接的考虑。狮子打个盹猴儿就说自己是大王，这不对。","html":"特斯拉不让pdd提车也是出于品牌不对接的考虑。狮子打个盹猴儿就说自己是大王，这不对。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":769209541050400,"gmtCreate":1687964770903,"gmtModify":1687964772215,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>大家快跑啊，鲍威尔讲话了，说会出现更多紧缩力量，这么鹰的讲话，大盘还涨？？出现了超买，快跑！！快跑，求你们了快跑！！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>大家快跑啊，鲍威尔讲话了，说会出现更多紧缩力量，这么鹰的讲话，大盘还涨？？出现了超买，快跑！！快跑，求你们了快跑！！","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 大家快跑啊，鲍威尔讲话了，说会出现更多紧缩力量，这么鹰的讲话，大盘还涨？？出现了超买，快跑！！快跑，求你们了快跑！！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/769209541050400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"不要学a股散户进进出出最后一场空，要拿就拿到下轮加息到3%，直接清空","text":"不要学a股散户进进出出最后一场空，要拿就拿到下轮加息到3%，直接清空","html":"不要学a股散户进进出出最后一场空，要拿就拿到下轮加息到3%，直接清空"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":970510504,"gmtCreate":1597831444808,"gmtModify":1704216903915,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>怎么办？？你不跌我怎么补仓？昨天都基本减完了。。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>怎么办？？你不跌我怎么补仓？昨天都基本减完了。。。","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$怎么办？？你不跌我怎么补仓？昨天都基本减完了。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/970510504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3536023434471745","authorId":"3536023434471745","name":"Dataoer","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a7455fc7e173416c2821077a8bffa31","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"这不下来了么","text":"这不下来了么","html":"这不下来了么"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":922204841,"gmtCreate":1587558571083,"gmtModify":1704364731685,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>到底谁在买？？从病毒刚爆发你就没咋跌，一直创新高。。奇怪很奇怪，比亚马逊比淘宝都牛，","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>到底谁在买？？从病毒刚爆发你就没咋跌，一直创新高。。奇怪很奇怪，比亚马逊比淘宝都牛，","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$到底谁在买？？从病毒刚爆发你就没咋跌，一直创新高。。奇怪很奇怪，比亚马逊比淘宝都牛，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/922204841","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499818301442972","authorId":"3499818301442972","name":"思念悠悠在远方","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/293f9329ba0451a4854cb580f874b868","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"流通股太少，只有不到一个亿，基本控盘了。","text":"流通股太少，只有不到一个亿，基本控盘了。","html":"流通股太少，只有不到一个亿，基本控盘了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}