KEINS的个人主页 - 老虎社区

KEINS

KEINS

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0勋章

12-20 20:51

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 吓怕了？？？？？？

12-17

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 我真牛逼，我清仓了的全在涨，我没清仓的这个英伟大的就一直在跌。

12-16

$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ 草我又卖飞了555

12-13

真都假都

@Nio 1000蚊:$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 要是今天收高于420，我表演倒立食💩

12-11

一股子官僚嘴脸，

对英伟达出手，真正的狠招还在后头

12-09

哈哈哈，还能骗，10月份的事这么快就忘了

11-18

技术不过关你说的是华卫吧？买了赛丽斯股票了？？？？赔死你

11-18

你睁眼看看世界吧，还在你的牢中局域网玩呢 [开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]

11-11

$可口可乐(KO)$ 这股真郁闷

11-08

$高通(QCOM)$ 给我整不会了

11-01

王现金什么东西，一堆废话，还国际领先，放氨气！特斯拉都没说领先，你领先？？？骗术也太差了，你们除了用行政手段阻止特斯拉，别无他法，百毒的萝卜就是个**

谷歌、特斯拉“洋萝卜”围追堵截，中国无人驾驶应抢抓窗口期

10-31

哈哈哈，你猜他们当时为啥去都印度[开心] [开心] [开心]

“牛市”熄火！印度Nifty指数10月大跌6%创四年最差月，外资大举出逃

09-11

你他么说反了吧？？笑死人

09-06

$NQ100指数主连 2409(NQmain)$ 这是逼美联储将息是吧

08-27

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 财报还没发？先跌？？？我靠

08-27

$拼多多(PDD)$ 牛逼牛逼

07-11

经典自家股票[开心]

纳指ETF被疯炒！到底有没有泡沫？

07-06

庄股？？呵呵，你当这是a股呢

06-05

你提到了华为我才知道你的屁股做在哪里，装什么外宾？？说了半天你还是不敢做空苹果

Apple: Does Not Create Blue Oceans Anymore

01-31

Replying to @夜流沙:？？？？？？？//@夜流沙:格力的估值太低了，主要是大家对a股已经绝望了。只要gjd不出手，a股立马变成一潭死水。也许a股在酝酿一个五十年难遇的大牛市吧[笑哭]

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我真牛逼，我清仓了的全在涨，我没清仓的这个英伟大的就一直在跌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382283442774376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493071870340922","authorId":"3493071870340922","name":"憨憨的熊猫眼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3493071870340922","idStr":"3493071870340922"},"content":"还不如买与比特币有关的那个股票","text":"还不如买与比特币有关的那个股票","html":"还不如买与比特币有关的那个股票"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":382183311954216,"gmtCreate":1734337564408,"gmtModify":1734337913497,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车产业，都高度依赖英伟达的芯片。</p><p>表面上看，英伟达被端上了中美欧的餐桌，<strong>但吃席各方其实都是醉翁之意不在酒。</strong></p><p>英伟达这张牌被打了出去，而真正的好戏，还在后头。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220830719v1631uo13aqaup5\"/><p>在拆解这出大戏之前，有必要先科普一些背景常识。</p><p>2020年，英伟达成功收购以色列公司迈络思（Mellanox），将后者的以太网传输业务改组为自己旗下的Nvidia Networking。由于两家在各自领域都处于市场垄断地位，彼时作为最大市场的中国对这起收购案给出了三个主要的附加限制性条件：</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220832157v1633ubm3vsar3b\"/><p>（一）向中国市场销售英伟达GPU加速器与迈络思高速网络互联设备时，不得以任何方式强制进行搭售，或者附加任何其他不合理的交易条件；不得阻碍或限制客户单独购买或使用上述产品；不得在服务水平、价格、软件功能等方面歧视单独购买上述产品的客户。</p><p>（二）依据公平、合理、无歧视原则向中国市场继续供应英伟达GPU加速器、迈络思高速网络互联设备和相关软件、配件。</p><p>（三）继续保证英伟达GPU加速器与第三方网络互联设备、迈络思高速网络互联设备与第三方加速器的互操作性。</p><p>2022年10月7日，美国商务部通过法案，限制中国企业获取高性能芯片和计算机。为了绕开法案，英伟达降低了部分芯片性能，作为“特供版”继续出口中国。</p><p>2023年10月，美国商务部进一步升级了禁令，英伟达的A100、H100芯片被禁售。目前，在AI算力研发和部署上，这两款芯片仍是最合适的选择。</p><p>原因或许无奈，<strong>但最早在2年前，英伟达就已经违反了上述限制条件，也是板上钉钉的事实。</strong></p><p>而英伟达能吸引全世界为敌，则是因为其业务版图实在过于庞大。</p><p>Jon Peddie Research（JPR）数据显示，<strong>英伟达在独立或集成显卡上的市场份额已经连续十年保持在80%左右；</strong></p><p>2023年，在包含GPU等公开销售产品以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等云服务商自研加速器在内的整体AI市场，英伟达拿下了85%的市场份额；</p><p>而<strong>在全球AI训练领域，英伟达拥有超过95%的市占率，</strong>你听过的几乎所有AI模型，全都是用英伟达的显卡训练出来的。黄仁勋那句<strong>“我们是AI的世界引擎”</strong>毫不夸张。</p><p>坐拥如此令人瞠目结舌的市场份额，同时还拥有成套的软硬件AI产品，英伟达在大多数人眼中无疑已经具备垄断地位。但必须指出的是，在自由经济市场，<strong>垄断本身并不违法，违法的是利用垄断优势打压竞争，损害消费者权益。</strong></p><p>但到底有没有不公平竞争，其实也是笔“糊涂账”。</p><p>举个例子，英伟达当前涉嫌违法的最主要焦点是“搭售协议”，也就是在只有当客户购买其他产品（比如网络设备）时，才会获得英伟达芯片购买的优先权。毕竟英伟达曾公开承认，会优先将芯片提供给那些“最有可能快速使用该产品的客户”。</p><p>但你很难说这种表态就是在扰乱市场，毕竟英伟达在显卡生态上的完善，使得自家显卡搭配NVLink的确能最大程度地发挥算力性能。<strong>更何况它并没有逼客户买，客户仍有选择其他芯片系统的权力。</strong></p><p>尽管AI芯片制造商Tenstorrent的首席执行官吉姆·凯勒今年8月在接受《The Information》采访时表示，这种<span>技术优势</span>常让客户“感觉有一股压力推着自己不得不购买英伟达的网络设备，觉得只有这样才能保证自己能买到该公司备受追捧的服务器芯片”，<strong>但拥有技术优势本身并不违法。</strong></p><p>因而对中国而言，如果真要反垄断，完全可以在2年前开始。而对欧美而言，似乎也并未抓到英伟达凭借垄断地位不当竞争的实锤。</p><p>所以，<strong>“反垄断”只是为打出这张牌找个借口，中美欧选择在这个时间点动手，只能说明在英伟达身上看到了各自更大的机会。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220833101v163yw0bz99ewxw\"/><p>对中国来说，英伟达这张牌至少在目前，打得稳赚不赔。</p><p><strong>一方面，我们给英伟达出了道选择题。</strong></p><p>依据美国政府禁令，英伟达只能向中国出售“阉割版”显卡，但这意味着它违反了2020年时的三个限制条件，已经适用中国的《反垄断法》。</p><p>届时，英伟达将面临：</p><p>没收违法所得，并处上一年度销售额1%以上10%以下的罚款（第五十六条、五十七条）。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220839282v163x3jyywuy5mj\"/><p>或者，情节特别严重的话，可以处以上述数额二倍以上五倍以下的罚款（第六十三条）。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220839870v163aas0rcrus3a\"/><p>2024财年，英伟达在中国区的营收为104亿美元，换言之，罚款最低（1%）大概1亿美刀多一点，<strong>最高可以去到销售收入的50%，也即52亿美元。</strong></p><p>所以，如果调查坐实了英伟达垄断市场，且依据的是第63条法令的话，那它每年要交最多52亿美元的罚金——<strong>占2024财年<span>净利润</span>（297.6亿）的17.5%。</strong></p><p><strong>不要觉得这不算多，这只是在中国一家交的罚款。</strong></p><p>那这还做啥生意？</p><p>摆在英伟达面前的，是实实在在的“留”还是“不留”在中国市场的问题。而对中国政府来说，“留”则每年能获得一笔额外收入，“不留”也能为国内显卡生态腾出独立发展空间。</p><p>但这还不是最深远的。</p><p><strong>最深远的是，通过对英伟达动手，中国给美股也出了道难题。</strong></p><p>11月19日开始，受美国政府换届的利好预期推动，道指一路飙涨，11月29日站上44910点的历史高位。此后至今却一直横盘震荡，纳斯达克100指数也从12月4日开始震荡。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220845405v163hb4oxl5xr7w\"/><p><strong>这足以说明市场情绪开始由乐观转向迟疑。</strong></p><p>事实上，从今年年初至今，唱衰美股的声音就不绝于耳。</p><p>主要原因在于，以“科技股七姐妹”（M7）领涨的这波行情，主要得益于AI行业的发展，但行业本身究竟有多少前景，落地难度还有多大，仍存在不确定性。加上科技股涨势过快且过于集中，泡沫越吹越大，总有破裂的一天。</p><p>而纵观历史，美股的转折点往往具备三个因素：</p><p><strong>泡沫膨胀，市场脆弱度提升，外部事件冲击。</strong></p><p>先说外部事件冲击。</p><p>你也许已经注意到了，对英伟达动手的时机堪称微妙——恰逢美国政府换届、全球芯片行业动荡之际。</p><p><strong>但很多人都没有意识到，对美股来说，2025年也将是自1920年以来最特殊的一年——它将是产业泡沫（AI）与政策转向对撞的第一年。</strong></p><p>历史证明，<strong>这两个因素中的任何一个都可能导致美股剧烈波动，如今两者叠加，堪比过山装上了涡轮增压，带给市场的波动性也许将是空前的。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220846159v163djnscn1ppl0\"/><p>如果下届政府兑现承诺，那么美国将迎来里根政府以来最大规模的政策宽松，1930年斯穆特·霍利法案以来最大的关税上调，以及美国历史上最大规模的非法移民遣返。</p><p>政策向扩张的急转往往能在短时间内带来非理性繁荣，市场理性回归后，随之而来的便是大回调（甚至萧条）。1929、1987和2000年初莫不如是。</p><p>这相当于给市场烧了把火，氛围烘托到位了。</p><p>再说市场脆弱度。</p><p>所谓脆弱性，可以理解成原有市场均衡被打破后，股市具备持续下跌和上涨的“惯性”。它是任何资本市场都具备的内在特性。</p><p>但脆弱性提升并非好事，这意味着市场自身调节能力减弱，更容易受到外部因素的影响，投机性急剧扩大，急涨急跌。</p><p>美国银行研究显示，美股美股单只股票的脆弱性创下历史记录，标普前50大成分股平均脆弱性事件的幅度（衡量一次外部事件冲击影响的剧烈程度）<strong>跳升至三十年来最高水平，甚至高于2008年前后。</strong>属于情绪也到位了。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220846958v163162avrydvf2\"/><p>最后说泡沫。</p><p>从ChatGPT启动最新AI繁荣以来仅仅两年，纳指100已经上涨了85%，“科技股七姐妹”更是上涨了200%。</p><p>再迅猛的涨势，也有迟疑的一天。当前，科技股面临双重压力。</p><p>其一是技术落地进展。即便是如桥水基金创始人达利欧这样，认为当前美股泡沫仅为“中等水平”的乐观主义者，也<strong>不得不承认如果“科技股七姐妹”在人工智能层面的进展不及预期，其价格仍有大幅调整空间。</strong></p><p>其二则是业绩。</p><p>时间拨回2000年，彼时一家科技股的暴跌，让市场胆战心惊。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>（Cisco）。</strong></p><p>思科股价到达顶峰之际，其市盈率一度超过了100倍。这种显著脱离基本面的狂热走势，在市场情绪转向之际再难持续，股价宛如跳楼般狂跌。当年4月暴跌7成，10月再跌9成，至今也没缓过劲来。</p><p>事实上，英伟达的股价走势与思科高度重合，很难不让人产生联想。</p><p>两者最大的不同点，在于英伟达市盈率为27倍。</p><p>这意味着即便它的市值膨胀了近10倍，它的业绩也同步增长，提供了支撑。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220847914v163hyxaojnvtb1\"/><p>英伟达和泡沫时期思科的股价走势基本重叠（图左）；英伟达市盈率显著低于泡沫时期的思科（图右）</p><p><strong>换言之，能让市场相信英伟达不会重蹈思科覆辙的，就是它的业绩。</strong>而其业绩的一大支柱是中国市场。今年前三季度，中国市场的营收占比接近13%。</p><p><strong>试想，如果英伟达在中国的业务受阻，业绩失去支撑之后，其股价走势会如何？</strong></p><p>要知道，市场对英伟达的业绩表现要求始终都是苛刻的，达成分析师预期远远不够，必须超过分析师的最乐观预期才算合格。过去数次财报发布后的股价表现已经证明了这一点。</p><p><strong>作为AI概念的头号受益人，难以满足市场预期的英伟达，又将引发何种连锁反应？</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220848334v1639ln6uryt6ih\"/><p>至于欧美，尤其是美国的目的，用三个字就能概括：</p><p><strong>安全感。</strong></p><p>在半导体这样一个技术密集型行业，有技术壁垒再正常不过，具备类似英伟达市场垄断地位的公司并不罕见：</p><p><strong>比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>（ASML）。</strong></p><p>作为全球最大、最先进的光刻机制造商，阿斯麦算是掌握了全球最大的半导体公司们的命脉，不管是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的智能手机还是英伟达的人工智能加速器，都离不开它。2023年，阿斯麦在全球光刻行业拥有94.2%的市场份额，在最先进的EUV光刻机这一块，更是掌握整个市场，除此一家，别无分店。</p><p>因而它的价格高到飞起。今年4月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>高级副总裁Kevin Zhang在参加一个技术研讨会时表示，“我喜欢High NA EUV的功能，但我不喜欢它的标价。”（I like the high-NA EUV’s capability, but I don’t like the sticker price.）</p><p>High NA EUV是阿斯麦最新的光刻机，单价3.5亿欧元（约合3.8亿美元），差不多能买1.5架<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>787“梦想客机”。</p><p><strong>但神奇的是，阿斯麦几乎从未被反垄断调查过。</strong></p><p>诚然，这与光刻机的工业特性有关，它只能用于制造芯片，产业价值高度依赖美国的芯片产业链，缺乏单独制裁的必要。</p><p><strong>但更重要的原因，是身份认同上的差异。</strong></p><p>阿斯麦现任CEO克里斯托弗·富凯是法国人，前任彼得·温宁克是荷兰人，从长相到文化认知，都能轻松被欧美圈子接纳。</p><p>黄仁勋就不一样了。他虽然成长于基督教家庭，就读于教会学校，上世纪80年代在美国白人黄金时代娶到中产白女，生下一对White-Passing长相儿女的“模范小黄人”，但毕竟不是白人。</p><p>“非我族类，其心必异”的原则，放诸四海皆准。</p><p>对欧美政客来说，一家由亚裔、黄种人掌权的企业本身就是不安全的，更何况这家企业还牢牢把持着下一代芯片和人工智能的发展命脉。把黄仁勋关进局子，<strong>让一个真正的“自己人”接管英伟达的说法，在欧美从来不缺市场。</strong></p><p>大国角力之际，饶是英伟达，也只能夹缝求生。</p><p>参考：</p><p>英伟达为何被反垄断立案调查？财富</p><p>英伟达激进销售策略引起美国司法部关注，财富</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220848698v163399vps71ppv\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220849388v1634n8hz08mmwf\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220850605v163xc0ebbz09ky\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220852639v163a9yz25njda0\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220858610v163xs5icptrqed\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20241210220859256v163hndlqvasn4v\"/><p>本文中所有涉及上市公司的内容，系依据上市公司根据其法定义务及监管要求公开披露的信息（包括但不限于官方网站、官方社媒、定期或临时披露的官方公告等）做出的分析与判断，不构成任何投资建议或其他商业建议。</p><p>本文中所有涉及商业人物的内容，系依据合法渠道公开披露的信息（包括但不限于媒体采访、人物传记等）做出的分析与判断，不构成任何投资建议或其他建议。</p><p>因采纳本文，或受本文影响而采取的行为及其导致的相应后果，围观商业不承担任何责任。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对英伟达出手，真正的狠招还在后头</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对英伟达出手，真正的狠招还在后头\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-10 21:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241210220902ab6ceafe&s=b><strong>围观商业评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者 | 围观群众被全世界针对是什么体验？从今年2月算起，全球各大主要经济体轮番调查英伟达垄断，东西方无比一致，英伟达仿佛一夜之间成了文明世界的靶子。为什么？尤其是，中国突然下场，着实反常。须知就在上个月，商务部副部长王受文还在北京见了英伟达高管杰伊·普瑞，表示欢迎英伟达在华发展；中国85%的算卡与英伟达相关，后者算是名副其实的产业核心；包括BAT、字节在内的诸多中国AI公司和中国新能源汽车产业，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241210220902ab6ceafe&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVD3.UK":"LS 3X NVIDIA","NVDD":"Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU1069344957.HKD":"AB SICAV I - AMERICAN GROWTH PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU2083900584.USD":"HSBC GIF US INCOME FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","NVD2.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","2NVD.UK":"2X NVIDIA ETP","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2065169927.USD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) 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Networking。由于两家在各自领域都处于市场垄断地位，彼时作为最大市场的中国对这起收购案给出了三个主要的附加限制性条件：（一）向中国市场销售英伟达GPU加速器与迈络思高速网络互联设备时，不得以任何方式强制进行搭售，或者附加任何其他不合理的交易条件；不得阻碍或限制客户单独购买或使用上述产品；不得在服务水平、价格、软件功能等方面歧视单独购买上述产品的客户。（二）依据公平、合理、无歧视原则向中国市场继续供应英伟达GPU加速器、迈络思高速网络互联设备和相关软件、配件。（三）继续保证英伟达GPU加速器与第三方网络互联设备、迈络思高速网络互联设备与第三方加速器的互操作性。2022年10月7日，美国商务部通过法案，限制中国企业获取高性能芯片和计算机。为了绕开法案，英伟达降低了部分芯片性能，作为“特供版”继续出口中国。2023年10月，美国商务部进一步升级了禁令，英伟达的A100、H100芯片被禁售。目前，在AI算力研发和部署上，这两款芯片仍是最合适的选择。原因或许无奈，但最早在2年前，英伟达就已经违反了上述限制条件，也是板上钉钉的事实。而英伟达能吸引全世界为敌，则是因为其业务版图实在过于庞大。Jon Peddie Research（JPR）数据显示，英伟达在独立或集成显卡上的市场份额已经连续十年保持在80%左右；2023年，在包含GPU等公开销售产品以及谷歌、亚马逊等云服务商自研加速器在内的整体AI市场，英伟达拿下了85%的市场份额；而在全球AI训练领域，英伟达拥有超过95%的市占率，你听过的几乎所有AI模型，全都是用英伟达的显卡训练出来的。黄仁勋那句“我们是AI的世界引擎”毫不夸张。坐拥如此令人瞠目结舌的市场份额，同时还拥有成套的软硬件AI产品，英伟达在大多数人眼中无疑已经具备垄断地位。但必须指出的是，在自由经济市场，垄断本身并不违法，违法的是利用垄断优势打压竞争，损害消费者权益。但到底有没有不公平竞争，其实也是笔“糊涂账”。举个例子，英伟达当前涉嫌违法的最主要焦点是“搭售协议”，也就是在只有当客户购买其他产品（比如网络设备）时，才会获得英伟达芯片购买的优先权。毕竟英伟达曾公开承认，会优先将芯片提供给那些“最有可能快速使用该产品的客户”。但你很难说这种表态就是在扰乱市场，毕竟英伟达在显卡生态上的完善，使得自家显卡搭配NVLink的确能最大程度地发挥算力性能。更何况它并没有逼客户买，客户仍有选择其他芯片系统的权力。尽管AI芯片制造商Tenstorrent的首席执行官吉姆·凯勒今年8月在接受《The Information》采访时表示，这种技术优势常让客户“感觉有一股压力推着自己不得不购买英伟达的网络设备，觉得只有这样才能保证自己能买到该公司备受追捧的服务器芯片”，但拥有技术优势本身并不违法。因而对中国而言，如果真要反垄断，完全可以在2年前开始。而对欧美而言，似乎也并未抓到英伟达凭借垄断地位不当竞争的实锤。所以，“反垄断”只是为打出这张牌找个借口，中美欧选择在这个时间点动手，只能说明在英伟达身上看到了各自更大的机会。对中国来说，英伟达这张牌至少在目前，打得稳赚不赔。一方面，我们给英伟达出了道选择题。依据美国政府禁令，英伟达只能向中国出售“阉割版”显卡，但这意味着它违反了2020年时的三个限制条件，已经适用中国的《反垄断法》。届时，英伟达将面临：没收违法所得，并处上一年度销售额1%以上10%以下的罚款（第五十六条、五十七条）。或者，情节特别严重的话，可以处以上述数额二倍以上五倍以下的罚款（第六十三条）。2024财年，英伟达在中国区的营收为104亿美元，换言之，罚款最低（1%）大概1亿美刀多一点，最高可以去到销售收入的50%，也即52亿美元。所以，如果调查坐实了英伟达垄断市场，且依据的是第63条法令的话，那它每年要交最多52亿美元的罚金——占2024财年净利润（297.6亿）的17.5%。不要觉得这不算多，这只是在中国一家交的罚款。那这还做啥生意？摆在英伟达面前的，是实实在在的“留”还是“不留”在中国市场的问题。而对中国政府来说，“留”则每年能获得一笔额外收入，“不留”也能为国内显卡生态腾出独立发展空间。但这还不是最深远的。最深远的是，通过对英伟达动手，中国给美股也出了道难题。11月19日开始，受美国政府换届的利好预期推动，道指一路飙涨，11月29日站上44910点的历史高位。此后至今却一直横盘震荡，纳斯达克100指数也从12月4日开始震荡。这足以说明市场情绪开始由乐观转向迟疑。事实上，从今年年初至今，唱衰美股的声音就不绝于耳。主要原因在于，以“科技股七姐妹”（M7）领涨的这波行情，主要得益于AI行业的发展，但行业本身究竟有多少前景，落地难度还有多大，仍存在不确定性。加上科技股涨势过快且过于集中，泡沫越吹越大，总有破裂的一天。而纵观历史，美股的转折点往往具备三个因素：泡沫膨胀，市场脆弱度提升，外部事件冲击。先说外部事件冲击。你也许已经注意到了，对英伟达动手的时机堪称微妙——恰逢美国政府换届、全球芯片行业动荡之际。但很多人都没有意识到，对美股来说，2025年也将是自1920年以来最特殊的一年——它将是产业泡沫（AI）与政策转向对撞的第一年。历史证明，这两个因素中的任何一个都可能导致美股剧烈波动，如今两者叠加，堪比过山装上了涡轮增压，带给市场的波动性也许将是空前的。如果下届政府兑现承诺，那么美国将迎来里根政府以来最大规模的政策宽松，1930年斯穆特·霍利法案以来最大的关税上调，以及美国历史上最大规模的非法移民遣返。政策向扩张的急转往往能在短时间内带来非理性繁荣，市场理性回归后，随之而来的便是大回调（甚至萧条）。1929、1987和2000年初莫不如是。这相当于给市场烧了把火，氛围烘托到位了。再说市场脆弱度。所谓脆弱性，可以理解成原有市场均衡被打破后，股市具备持续下跌和上涨的“惯性”。它是任何资本市场都具备的内在特性。但脆弱性提升并非好事，这意味着市场自身调节能力减弱，更容易受到外部因素的影响，投机性急剧扩大，急涨急跌。美国银行研究显示，美股美股单只股票的脆弱性创下历史记录，标普前50大成分股平均脆弱性事件的幅度（衡量一次外部事件冲击影响的剧烈程度）跳升至三十年来最高水平，甚至高于2008年前后。属于情绪也到位了。最后说泡沫。从ChatGPT启动最新AI繁荣以来仅仅两年，纳指100已经上涨了85%，“科技股七姐妹”更是上涨了200%。再迅猛的涨势，也有迟疑的一天。当前，科技股面临双重压力。其一是技术落地进展。即便是如桥水基金创始人达利欧这样，认为当前美股泡沫仅为“中等水平”的乐观主义者，也不得不承认如果“科技股七姐妹”在人工智能层面的进展不及预期，其价格仍有大幅调整空间。其二则是业绩。时间拨回2000年，彼时一家科技股的暴跌，让市场胆战心惊。思科（Cisco）。思科股价到达顶峰之际，其市盈率一度超过了100倍。这种显著脱离基本面的狂热走势，在市场情绪转向之际再难持续，股价宛如跳楼般狂跌。当年4月暴跌7成，10月再跌9成，至今也没缓过劲来。事实上，英伟达的股价走势与思科高度重合，很难不让人产生联想。两者最大的不同点，在于英伟达市盈率为27倍。这意味着即便它的市值膨胀了近10倍，它的业绩也同步增长，提供了支撑。英伟达和泡沫时期思科的股价走势基本重叠（图左）；英伟达市盈率显著低于泡沫时期的思科（图右）换言之，能让市场相信英伟达不会重蹈思科覆辙的，就是它的业绩。而其业绩的一大支柱是中国市场。今年前三季度，中国市场的营收占比接近13%。试想，如果英伟达在中国的业务受阻，业绩失去支撑之后，其股价走势会如何？要知道，市场对英伟达的业绩表现要求始终都是苛刻的，达成分析师预期远远不够，必须超过分析师的最乐观预期才算合格。过去数次财报发布后的股价表现已经证明了这一点。作为AI概念的头号受益人，难以满足市场预期的英伟达，又将引发何种连锁反应？至于欧美，尤其是美国的目的，用三个字就能概括：安全感。在半导体这样一个技术密集型行业，有技术壁垒再正常不过，具备类似英伟达市场垄断地位的公司并不罕见：比如阿斯麦（ASML）。作为全球最大、最先进的光刻机制造商，阿斯麦算是掌握了全球最大的半导体公司们的命脉，不管是苹果的智能手机还是英伟达的人工智能加速器，都离不开它。2023年，阿斯麦在全球光刻行业拥有94.2%的市场份额，在最先进的EUV光刻机这一块，更是掌握整个市场，除此一家，别无分店。因而它的价格高到飞起。今年4月，台积电高级副总裁Kevin Zhang在参加一个技术研讨会时表示，“我喜欢High NA EUV的功能，但我不喜欢它的标价。”（I like the high-NA EUV’s capability, but I don’t like the sticker price.）High NA 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给我整不会了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368790549049784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366358575419408,"gmtCreate":1730469586085,"gmtModify":1730469588631,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"王现金什么东西，一堆废话，还国际领先，放氨气！特斯拉都没说领先，你领先？？？骗术也太差了，你们除了用行政手段阻止特斯拉，别无他法，百毒的萝卜就是个**","listText":"王现金什么东西，一堆废话，还国际领先，放氨气！特斯拉都没说领先，你领先？？？骗术也太差了，你们除了用行政手段阻止特斯拉，别无他法，百毒的萝卜就是个**","text":"王现金什么东西，一堆废话，还国际领先，放氨气！特斯拉都没说领先，你领先？？？骗术也太差了，你们除了用行政手段阻止特斯拉，别无他法，百毒的萝卜就是个**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366358575419408","repostId":"2479084244","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2479084244","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1730377592,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2479084244?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-31 20:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"谷歌、特斯拉“洋萝卜”围追堵截，中国无人驾驶应抢抓窗口期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2479084244","media":"南方都市报","summary":"全球无人驾驶行业正上演着生死时速。10月30日，谷歌母公司Alphabet旗下的无人驾驶汽车公司Waymo宣布，其WaymoOne（无人驾驶出租车）服务实现每周提供15万次付费出行服务，这一数据在8月份时仅为10万单，在5月份时只有5万单。这也意味着，Waymo每周单量在短短2个月内大增150%，在半年内翻了三番。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=105.TSLA&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=105.GOOGL&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p><img border=\"0\" height=\"276\" src=\"https://webquoteklinepic.eastmoney.com/GetPic.aspx?nid=105.GOOG&amp;imageType=k&amp;token=28dfeb41d35cc81d84b4664d7c23c49f&amp;at=1\" width=\"578\"/></p><p>　　全球<span>无人驾驶</span><span></span>行业正上演着生死时速。</p><p>　　10月30日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet旗下的<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0802\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">无人驾驶</span>汽车公司Waymo宣布，其Waymo One（<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0802\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">无人驾驶</span>出租车）服务实现每周提供15万次付费出行服务，这一数据在8月份时仅为10万单，在5月份时只有5万单。这也意味着，Waymo每周单量在短短2个月内大增150%，在半年内翻了三番。</p><p>　　这一增长与 Waymo 今年以来不断扩大车队规模和服务区域、允许更多用户乘坐其无人驾驶出租车有关。此前，Waymo首席产品官就曾表示，Waymo有意扩大规模、优化成本和提升消费者体验。</p><p>　　据了解，Waymo在今年3月扩大了在旧金山半岛的无人驾驶出行服务；6月再次宣布在旧金山全域用户开放其无人驾驶出行服务， 近800辆无人车在美国旧金山繁华市区开展全时段（7x24小时）、全无人、可收费的规模化运营；9月，Waymo宣布与出行服务巨头<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a></span><span></span>（Uber）合作，明年在奥斯汀和亚特兰大两大城市联合推出自动驾驶汽车。</p><p>　　随着近期旧金山全域的无人驾驶的开放、无人车数量的激增和覆盖用户的增加，Waymo每周单量在8月反超中国最大的自动驾驶出行平台萝卜快跑后，其每周单量已经达到萝卜快跑的两倍。公开数据显示，萝卜快跑目前服务车辆仅为400余辆，今年二季度内提供的出行服务约89.9万次，平均每周提供出行服务7.5万次，同比增长26%。截至今年7月底，萝卜快跑已累计完成700万次安全出行服务。</p> <center><img src=\"https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D24849744095432259727_w800h574.jpg\" title=\"imagefile\" width=\"580\"/></center><p>　　虽然Waymo目前无人驾驶总单量不及萝卜快跑，但谷歌母公司正在加大对Waymo的资金投入，以支持其向<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300778\">新城市</a></span><span></span>扩张并进一步开发其自动驾驶技术能力。就在10月26日，Waymo宣布完成56亿美元的C轮超额认购融资，这也是Waymo迄今为止筹集的最大一轮融资。</p><p>　　不仅仅是Waymo频频发力，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a></span><span></span>等“洋萝卜”也对无人驾驶产业虎视眈眈。在10月10日正式推出无人驾驶出租车CyberCab后，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.TSLA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>CEO埃隆·马斯克在第三季度财报电话会议上透露，已经面向<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/105.TSLA\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>员工开启自动驾驶出租车测试，并有望在明年正式开启服务。马斯克称，<span>特斯拉</span><span></span>CyberCab将在2026年实现大规模量产，年产量有望达到200万辆，最终增至400万辆。未来，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0644\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>宣布其旗下所有车型都具备自动驾驶能力。一旦<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0644\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">特斯拉</span>无人驾驶出租车投入使用，其在全球的扩张速度不可小觑。</p><p>　　在这背后，无人驾驶正上演着巅峰对决，也将全球<span>人工智能</span><span></span>领域的竞争推向白热化。自动驾驶综合了<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK0800\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">人工智能</span>、通信、<span>半导体</span><span></span>、汽车等多项技术，涉及产业链长、价值创造空间巨大，已经成为各国汽车产业与科技产业跨界、竞合的必争之地。</p><p>　　而当下，随着谷歌、特斯拉“洋萝卜”的前后夹击，全球无人驾驶已经到了“决出生死”的关键时刻，自动驾驶已成为全球科技竞争的最前沿战场。今年以来，德国、日本、英国等多个传统汽车制造国也已加入无人驾驶竞争的阵营，从国家战略层面实施产业部署，立法动作不断，通过打造“制度高地”，抢占无人驾驶行业发展先机。</p><p>　　反观国内，尽管无人驾驶行业入局者众，但目前做到规模化、常态化测试的只有萝卜快跑一家，也是我国唯一有希望站上国际舞台，与Waymo、特斯拉“洋萝卜”一较高下的王牌。</p><p>　　尤其在技术领域，萝卜快跑已经具备先发优势。在2022年亮相无方向盘的自动驾驶车辆后，今年5月，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a></span><span></span>率先发布了全球首个支持L4级无人驾驶应用的自动驾驶大模型Apollo ADFM，可以兼顾技术的安全性和泛化性，做到安全性高于人类驾驶员10倍以上；搭载这一大模型的Apollo自动驾驶开放平台10.0版本即将面向全球用户发布，这一升级将大幅提升自动驾驶开放平台的安全性、智能化和易用性。</p><p>　　不过，Waymo、特斯拉等“洋萝卜”也加快在自动驾驶技术领域的追赶。10月31日，Waymo宣布基于谷歌大模型Gemini开发了自动驾驶训练模型EMMA，将用于处理无人车<span>传感器</span><span></span>数据、生成无人车未来轨迹并帮助无人车做出决策。尽管该自动驾驶训练模型目前还处于学术阶段，但其追赶速度不容小觑。</p><p>　　更为重要的是，中外自动驾驶的竞争，不但包括技术竞争，比拼的也是政策创新，以及政府支持企业的决心。以萝卜快跑、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">小马智行</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRD\">文远知行</a></span><span></span>等国内无人驾驶公司的发展也亟需政策的进一步支持，以实现我国无人驾驶在国际赛场上的领跑。</p><p>　　“我国自动驾驶技术在国际上处于领先水平，应该积极支持产业发展，进一步加强技术优势，在技术应用、政策法规、产业发展上实现全面领先。应该鼓励更多科技企业加大对自动驾驶技术的投入，这不仅涉及技术层面的研发测试，也要扩大运营范围、增加测试环境的丰富性。自动驾驶涉及大量跨区运营场景，需要不断增加城市复杂道路、高速、机场等真实场景，提升自动驾驶车辆对各种复杂场景的适应性。”全国政协委员、交通运输部科学研究院副院长、总工程师王先进表示。 </p><p>（文章来源：南方都市报）</p> </div></body></html>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌、特斯拉“洋萝卜”围追堵截，中国无人驾驶应抢抓窗口期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-31 20:26 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202410313225044186.html><strong>南方都市报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球无人驾驶行业正上演着生死时速。　　10月30日，谷歌母公司Alphabet旗下的无人驾驶汽车公司Waymo宣布，其Waymo One（无人驾驶出租车）服务实现每周提供15万次付费出行服务，这一数据在8月份时仅为10万单，在5月份时只有5万单。这也意味着，Waymo每周单量在短短2个月内大增150%，在半年内翻了三番。　　这一增长与 Waymo 今年以来不断扩大车队规模和服务区域、允许更多用户...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202410313225044186.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0215105999.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" ACC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4514":"搜索引擎","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL 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and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0130517989.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"R\" INC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0130518102.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES GLOBAL EQUITY \"R\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4573":"虚拟现实","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202410313225044186.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2479084244","content_text":"全球无人驾驶行业正上演着生死时速。　　10月30日，谷歌母公司Alphabet旗下的无人驾驶汽车公司Waymo宣布，其Waymo One（无人驾驶出租车）服务实现每周提供15万次付费出行服务，这一数据在8月份时仅为10万单，在5月份时只有5万单。这也意味着，Waymo每周单量在短短2个月内大增150%，在半年内翻了三番。　　这一增长与 Waymo 今年以来不断扩大车队规模和服务区域、允许更多用户乘坐其无人驾驶出租车有关。此前，Waymo首席产品官就曾表示，Waymo有意扩大规模、优化成本和提升消费者体验。　　据了解，Waymo在今年3月扩大了在旧金山半岛的无人驾驶出行服务；6月再次宣布在旧金山全域用户开放其无人驾驶出行服务， 近800辆无人车在美国旧金山繁华市区开展全时段（7x24小时）、全无人、可收费的规模化运营；9月，Waymo宣布与出行服务巨头优步（Uber）合作，明年在奥斯汀和亚特兰大两大城市联合推出自动驾驶汽车。　　随着近期旧金山全域的无人驾驶的开放、无人车数量的激增和覆盖用户的增加，Waymo每周单量在8月反超中国最大的自动驾驶出行平台萝卜快跑后，其每周单量已经达到萝卜快跑的两倍。公开数据显示，萝卜快跑目前服务车辆仅为400余辆，今年二季度内提供的出行服务约89.9万次，平均每周提供出行服务7.5万次，同比增长26%。截至今年7月底，萝卜快跑已累计完成700万次安全出行服务。 　　虽然Waymo目前无人驾驶总单量不及萝卜快跑，但谷歌母公司正在加大对Waymo的资金投入，以支持其向新城市扩张并进一步开发其自动驾驶技术能力。就在10月26日，Waymo宣布完成56亿美元的C轮超额认购融资，这也是Waymo迄今为止筹集的最大一轮融资。　　不仅仅是Waymo频频发力，特斯拉等“洋萝卜”也对无人驾驶产业虎视眈眈。在10月10日正式推出无人驾驶出租车CyberCab后，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在第三季度财报电话会议上透露，已经面向特斯拉员工开启自动驾驶出租车测试，并有望在明年正式开启服务。马斯克称，特斯拉CyberCab将在2026年实现大规模量产，年产量有望达到200万辆，最终增至400万辆。未来，特斯拉宣布其旗下所有车型都具备自动驾驶能力。一旦特斯拉无人驾驶出租车投入使用，其在全球的扩张速度不可小觑。　　在这背后，无人驾驶正上演着巅峰对决，也将全球人工智能领域的竞争推向白热化。自动驾驶综合了人工智能、通信、半导体、汽车等多项技术，涉及产业链长、价值创造空间巨大，已经成为各国汽车产业与科技产业跨界、竞合的必争之地。　　而当下，随着谷歌、特斯拉“洋萝卜”的前后夹击，全球无人驾驶已经到了“决出生死”的关键时刻，自动驾驶已成为全球科技竞争的最前沿战场。今年以来，德国、日本、英国等多个传统汽车制造国也已加入无人驾驶竞争的阵营，从国家战略层面实施产业部署，立法动作不断，通过打造“制度高地”，抢占无人驾驶行业发展先机。　　反观国内，尽管无人驾驶行业入局者众，但目前做到规模化、常态化测试的只有萝卜快跑一家，也是我国唯一有希望站上国际舞台，与Waymo、特斯拉“洋萝卜”一较高下的王牌。　　尤其在技术领域，萝卜快跑已经具备先发优势。在2022年亮相无方向盘的自动驾驶车辆后，今年5月，百度率先发布了全球首个支持L4级无人驾驶应用的自动驾驶大模型Apollo ADFM，可以兼顾技术的安全性和泛化性，做到安全性高于人类驾驶员10倍以上；搭载这一大模型的Apollo自动驾驶开放平台10.0版本即将面向全球用户发布，这一升级将大幅提升自动驾驶开放平台的安全性、智能化和易用性。　　不过，Waymo、特斯拉等“洋萝卜”也加快在自动驾驶技术领域的追赶。10月31日，Waymo宣布基于谷歌大模型Gemini开发了自动驾驶训练模型EMMA，将用于处理无人车传感器数据、生成无人车未来轨迹并帮助无人车做出决策。尽管该自动驾驶训练模型目前还处于学术阶段，但其追赶速度不容小觑。　　更为重要的是，中外自动驾驶的竞争，不但包括技术竞争，比拼的也是政策创新，以及政府支持企业的决心。以萝卜快跑、小马智行、文远知行等国内无人驾驶公司的发展也亟需政策的进一步支持，以实现我国无人驾驶在国际赛场上的领跑。　　“我国自动驾驶技术在国际上处于领先水平，应该积极支持产业发展，进一步加强技术优势，在技术应用、政策法规、产业发展上实现全面领先。应该鼓励更多科技企业加大对自动驾驶技术的投入，这不仅涉及技术层面的研发测试，也要扩大运营范围、增加测试环境的丰富性。自动驾驶涉及大量跨区运营场景，需要不断增加城市复杂道路、高速、机场等真实场景，提升自动驾驶车辆对各种复杂场景的适应性。”全国政协委员、交通运输部科学研究院副院长、总工程师王先进表示。 （文章来源：南方都市报）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366008657207400,"gmtCreate":1730383828776,"gmtModify":1730383832063,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈哈，你猜他们当时为啥去都印度[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"哈哈哈，你猜他们当时为啥去都印度[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"哈哈哈，你猜他们当时为啥去都印度[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366008657207400","repostId":"2479072766","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2479072766","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1730359440,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2479072766?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-31 15:24","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"“牛市”熄火！印度Nifty指数10月大跌6%创四年最差月，外资大举出逃","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2479072766","media":"市场资讯","summary":"　　在企业盈利疲软、外资持续抛售之际，印度基准指数NSE Nifty 50指数将迎来2020年以来表现最差月份。　　数据显示，印度基准指数NSE Nifty 50指数10月下跌6%，这不仅是自今年5月以来首次月度下跌，也将创下自2020年3月疫情以来最大月度跌幅。　　据彭博统计，截至10月29日的一个月内，外国机构已净卖出价值超过100亿美元的印度股票。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<blockquote><p>　　炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！</p></blockquote> <p cms-style=\"font-L \">　　来源：华尔街见闻</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　印度“牛市”熄火。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　在企业盈利疲软、外资持续抛售之际，印度基准指数NSE Nifty 50指数将迎来2020年以来表现最差月份。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　数据显示，<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">印度基准指数NSE Nifty 50指数10月下跌6%，这不仅是自今年5月以来首次月度下跌，也将创下自2020年3月疫情以来最大月度跌幅。</font>同样，孟买证券交易所（BSE）的Sensex指数也出现了类似幅度的下跌。</p>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/128/w550h378/20241031/3717-93f5a8c2b240ef7c1e7a16737bd50ee4.png\"/><span></span></div>\n</div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　据彭博统计，<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">截至10月29日的一个月内，外国机构已净卖出价值超过100亿美元的印度股票。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　处于历史高峰的印度股市估值，令投资者望而却步。花旗集团的一份报告显示，外国投资者持续外流可能会拖累股市近期表现。该行分析师表示，经过本月的调整，印度股市估值已较峰值有所回落，但在大多数指标上，该估值仍比长期平均水平高出近一个标准差。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>近日将印度市场股票评级从增持下调至中性并警告称，印度股市整体估值已经达到预期盈利的24倍，处于历史峰值水平，而这是投资者最普遍担忧的问题。该行预测，随着经济周期性放缓拖累企业盈利，印度市场可能在未来3-6个月经历波动。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">　　美国大选在即，印度股市或还将有大幅波动</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　当前，期权交易员们正在押注美国大选将引发印度股市大幅波动。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　数据显示，在下周美国大选投票后到期的NSE Nifty 50指数期权中，行权价为24，500的看涨期权和行权价为24，400的看跌期权过去一周内都激增超过6万份，成为当地交易所最受欢迎的合约之一。周三，该指数收于24，340.85点。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　JM Financial的高级副总裁Avani Bhatt表示，<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">这意味着市场参与者可能在购买“宽跨式期权”——一种押注波动性的策略——以便为“任一方向的剧烈波动”做准备。</font>在宽跨式期权中，交易者购买具有不同行行权价到期日相同的看跌期权和看涨期权。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　随着交易员们正在等待印度最大贸易伙伴——美国的大选结果，<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">股市波动性指标也在不断攀升。追踪NSE Nifty 50指数波动性的指标本月已经上升2.7点，为自5月以来的最大增幅。</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">　　投资者撤离印度，转向中国？</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　高盛警告，印度经济增长放缓已经开始影响到企业盈利。与第一季度相比，第二季度印度企业盈利复苏速度低于预期。截至10月下旬，已发布业绩的18家MSCI印度公司中有11家未达到预期。受股市整体环境影响，印度最大的IPO交易——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HYUD.UK\">现代汽车</a>印度公司上市首日就破发收跌7.2%。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　印度估值的高估值及企业盈利放缓正在加剧投资者的抛售和撤离。Mehta的股票高级副总裁Prashant Tapse表示：“<font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">外国投资者正在逃离印度股票，投资中国股市等估值相对较低的地方</font>，尤其是在中国政府宣布刺激措施后。”</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　数据显示，部分从印度市场撤出的海外亚洲基金转向了建仓中国市场。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>10月24日研报统计显示，今年9月，亚洲海外基金积极在A股市场建立头寸。海外成长型基金10个月来首次增持内地市场。亚洲基金在中国股市的持仓目前处于五年高位（以Z分数衡量）。</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/45/w550h295/20241031/f4ee-6cd95eac4ab2a49aef7144f9753116ee.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\">　　市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。</p>\n<div></div>\n<font>新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。</font>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑：刘万里 SF014</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“牛市”熄火！印度Nifty指数10月大跌6%创四年最差月，外资大举出逃\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-31 15:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2024-10-31/doc-incumsee4127580.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　来源：华尔街见闻\n　　印度“牛市”熄火。\n　　在企业盈利疲软、外资持续抛售之际，印度基准指数NSE Nifty 50指数将迎来2020年以来表现最差月份。\n　　数据显示，印度基准指数NSE Nifty 50指数10月下跌6%，这不仅是自今年5月以来首次月度下跌，也将创下自2020年3月疫情以来最大月度跌幅。同样，孟买...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2024-10-31/doc-incumsee4127580.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IFN":"印度基金","IIF":"IIF印度基金","PIN":"印度ETF-PowerShares","EPI":"印度收入指数ETF-WisdomTree"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2024-10-31/doc-incumsee4127580.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2479072766","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　来源：华尔街见闻\n　　印度“牛市”熄火。\n　　在企业盈利疲软、外资持续抛售之际，印度基准指数NSE Nifty 50指数将迎来2020年以来表现最差月份。\n　　数据显示，印度基准指数NSE Nifty 50指数10月下跌6%，这不仅是自今年5月以来首次月度下跌，也将创下自2020年3月疫情以来最大月度跌幅。同样，孟买证券交易所（BSE）的Sensex指数也出现了类似幅度的下跌。\n\n\n\n　　据彭博统计，截至10月29日的一个月内，外国机构已净卖出价值超过100亿美元的印度股票。\n　　处于历史高峰的印度股市估值，令投资者望而却步。花旗集团的一份报告显示，外国投资者持续外流可能会拖累股市近期表现。该行分析师表示，经过本月的调整，印度股市估值已较峰值有所回落，但在大多数指标上，该估值仍比长期平均水平高出近一个标准差。\n　　高盛近日将印度市场股票评级从增持下调至中性并警告称，印度股市整体估值已经达到预期盈利的24倍，处于历史峰值水平，而这是投资者最普遍担忧的问题。该行预测，随着经济周期性放缓拖累企业盈利，印度市场可能在未来3-6个月经历波动。\n　　美国大选在即，印度股市或还将有大幅波动\n　　当前，期权交易员们正在押注美国大选将引发印度股市大幅波动。\n　　数据显示，在下周美国大选投票后到期的NSE Nifty 50指数期权中，行权价为24，500的看涨期权和行权价为24，400的看跌期权过去一周内都激增超过6万份，成为当地交易所最受欢迎的合约之一。周三，该指数收于24，340.85点。\n　　JM Financial的高级副总裁Avani Bhatt表示，这意味着市场参与者可能在购买“宽跨式期权”——一种押注波动性的策略——以便为“任一方向的剧烈波动”做准备。在宽跨式期权中，交易者购买具有不同行行权价到期日相同的看跌期权和看涨期权。\n　　随着交易员们正在等待印度最大贸易伙伴——美国的大选结果，股市波动性指标也在不断攀升。追踪NSE Nifty 50指数波动性的指标本月已经上升2.7点，为自5月以来的最大增幅。\n　　投资者撤离印度，转向中国？\n　　高盛警告，印度经济增长放缓已经开始影响到企业盈利。与第一季度相比，第二季度印度企业盈利复苏速度低于预期。截至10月下旬，已发布业绩的18家MSCI印度公司中有11家未达到预期。受股市整体环境影响，印度最大的IPO交易——现代汽车印度公司上市首日就破发收跌7.2%。\n　　印度估值的高估值及企业盈利放缓正在加剧投资者的抛售和撤离。Mehta的股票高级副总裁Prashant Tapse表示：“外国投资者正在逃离印度股票，投资中国股市等估值相对较低的地方，尤其是在中国政府宣布刺激措施后。”\n　　数据显示，部分从印度市场撤出的海外亚洲基金转向了建仓中国市场。\n　　汇丰10月24日研报统计显示，今年9月，亚洲海外基金积极在A股市场建立头寸。海外成长型基金10个月来首次增持内地市场。亚洲基金在中国股市的持仓目前处于五年高位（以Z分数衡量）。\n\n　　市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘万里 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牛逼牛逼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342975639892224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326260486537360,"gmtCreate":1720655017774,"gmtModify":1720655019704,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"经典自家股票[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"经典自家股票[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"经典自家股票[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326260486537360","repostId":"2449757392","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2449757392","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1720353281,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2449757392?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-07 19:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"纳指ETF被疯炒！到底有没有泡沫？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2449757392","media":"格隆汇","summary":"如果炒股能赚钱，高溢价又何妨？","content":"<html><body><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4d460-d1e553c7-9b99-4905-afe4-1e6d78c84ec7.png?guru_height=627&amp;guru_width=938\"/></p><p><strong></strong><span><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/b83a5-d7cf11f0-136d-486f-b61c-e661b097fbb6.jpg?guru_height=44&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></span></p><p><span>最近，有券商发信息给股民提示纳指</span><span>ETF</span><span>溢价率太高建议理性投资，却被股民回复别多管闲事的事件，把股民们整笑了。</span></p><p><span>这样的回复，让人感到好笑，更让感到心酸。</span></p><p><span>及时提醒风险是券商的本职工作，并没有错；</span></p><p><span>选择高溢价跨境ETF的股民，也没有错。</span></p><p><span>今年到现在，美股纳指涨了22%、日股涨了22%、印度股涨了11%，甚至我们的宝岛股市都涨了31%。但大A呢？创板、创业板都跌了十几个点，有众多大蓝筹撑着的上证也跌了1%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/f717f-943a4f29-a174-45c0-89c8-0f5548f8aa88.jpg?guru_height=1997&amp;guru_width=820\"/></p><p><span><span>天下攘攘，皆为利来，</span>一边是连续几年跌跌不休的国内股市，一边是涨势汹汹的境外市场，如</span><span>果股民有得选，必然选择能赚钱的一边。</span></p><p><span>毕竟股民拿钱来炒股，就是以赚钱为目的，不是来做慈善的。</span></p><p><span>那么，被不断警示高溢价的跨境ETF，真的是溢价过高了吗？</span></p><p><span>或许并不见得。</span></p><p><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">01</font></strong></p><p><span><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">超400次风险警示，难阻资金炒疯</font></span></strong></span></p><p><strong><span>截至7月5日，剔除港股市场的跨境ETF产品中靠前的<span>年内收益大多数</span>都超过了25%，<span>基本上</span>比国内的头部ETF产品都超出10个点的距离。</span></strong></p><p><span>拿差的对比，跟踪其他国家资产的ETF产品最差的也大概有10个点收益，对比之下，国内及港股的ETF收益率最差的甚至跌了30%以上。</span></p><p><span>差距极为悬殊。</span></p><p><span>在这批跨境ETF中，跟踪美股资产的跨境ETF表现尤为亮眼，尤其是纳指科技ETF，截至7月5日其年内累计收益达到了53.33%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/712ae-7af8b594-ceaa-4456-8273-5a9111b4d8f6.png?guru_height=874&amp;guru_width=879\"/></p><p><span>这些产品的交易有多疯狂？</span></p><p><span>比如纳指科技ETF，今年1-6月的成交额分别为99.45亿元、130.61亿元、253.47亿元、137.71亿元、159.09亿元、295.09亿元。换手率方面，今年1-6月以及7月5个交易日分别为141.85%、169.67%、297.12%、171.92%、185.10%、292.84%和71.45%。</span></p><p><span>在同时，这些产品的溢价率也不断走高，大幅偏离基金净值，<strong>纳指科技ETF最新的溢价率甚至达到了12.63%。</strong></span></p><p><span>它们也因此成为了被券商频频发布警示公告的重点。据报道，今年以来已有30余只QDII产品合计发布了超400次的溢价风险提示公告，其中景顺长城纳斯达克科技市值加权ETF、华夏野村日经225ETF和易方达原油A人民币3只产品都发布了超60次提示公告。</span></p><p><span>其中最高溢价的纳指科技ETF<strong>自2月份以来已发布了</strong><strong>80多份提示公告</strong>。</span></p><p><span>鉴于此，目前不少的QDII产品已经被限购，Wind数据显示，目前已有超过130只QDII产品处于“暂停申购”甚至“暂停大额申购”的状态，其中不少产品的单日大额申购限额在1万元以下。</span></p><p><span>同时为了遏制过度炒作行为，交易所已经宣布对这些产品的异常交易行为进行从严认定，<strong>并视情况从重采取列为重点监控账户、暂停账户交易、限制账户交易、认定为不合格投资者等自律管理措施。</strong></span></p><p><span>这些产品，为什么会出现如此高的溢价？</span></p><p><span>一方面，国家外汇管理局对QDII投资审批有额度限制，这个规模并不是任意增长的，目前在几十家有额度的基金公司中，只有6家额度超过30亿美元，其中最高的不超过77.3亿美元。</span></p><p><span>这点规模，相对国内庞大的投资者群体来说，根本不够分。</span></p><p><span>另一方面，它们的业绩确实是在不断创新高，形成显著的赚钱效应，不断吸引股民和投资机构入场追捧。</span></p><p><span>而投资者的疯狂买入会导致基金公司自身外汇额度飞速耗尽，基金公司只能暂停场外QDII基金的申购，投资者只能转为买入场内的相关ETF产品，进而推高了溢价率。</span></p><p><span>这是最主要的原因。</span></p><p><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">02</font></strong></p><p><span><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">溢价过高又如何？</font></strong></span></p><p><span>为什么这些跨境ETF会出现溢价？</span></p><p><strong><span>根本原因就是股民们看好它们的未来预期，愿意给出更高的溢价。</span></strong></p><p><span>只要觉得未来还能涨，现在溢价再高都不是个事儿。</span></p><p><span>比如飞天茅台，出厂价1169，指导价1499，但线下黄牛依然愿意溢价上千去收购，因为他们知道终端价还能卖出更高的价格，并且不愁卖不出。</span></p><p><span>这个逻辑和炒股看PE也是一样的，市场越看好一只股票的未来成长预期，给出的溢价就越高。</span></p><p><span>之前一些所谓的赛道股，能获得几百上千倍的PE，一样止不住资金的疯狂炒作。</span></p><p><span>虽然跨境ETF对标的是一揽子国外的股票，并且等于在这一揽子股票自己的PE上再做一定的溢价。</span></p><p><span>但这个溢价真算高吗？</span></p><p><span>并不见得。以跟踪美国50ETF为例：</span></p><p><span>首先，这些ETF重仓的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、META、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>等这些头部巨头，这些巨头尽管在过去几年已经出现了数倍的估值增长，但即使如此其本身的PE相对过往情况其实也并不算太高。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/c5e60-58ee12e2-b44e-4a6a-b2d8-9e67e6a192ed.png?guru_height=864&amp;guru_width=1050\"/></p><p><span>这背后，是它们一直以来展现出的持续稳定且较高的业绩增长，一些巨头甚至连续出现翻倍式的可怕增长。</span></p><p><span>有些巨头，比如苹果、亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>等业绩增速可能不算高，但也强过国内的茅台。而它们除了业绩稳健，每年还用非常庞大的资金进行分红或回购来回馈投资者，拉高资本投资回报率。</span></p><p><strong><span>苹果公司在过去一直都是高投资回报的典范，其去年度的ROE高达171.95%，资本回报率（ROIC）也有56.4%，还批准了高达1100亿美元的回购计划，这在国内股市来说根本就不可想象。</span></strong></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/1db17-16c1a255-a238-4152-9904-ade797f30a12.png?guru_height=656&amp;guru_width=1080\"/></p><p><span>这些世界级的巨头已经没有任何力量能“杀死”它们，它们在过去呈现出的强劲表现在未来也很大概率能延续，所以即使有可能是在股市中股价出现回调，也只是调整。</span></p><p><span>那么从长期视角来看，只要这些股票的长期能上涨，股民就能从这些ETF产品价格上涨中赚到钱，买入它们的估值溢价就并非不可接受。</span></p><p><strong><span>更何况，中国内地投资者想要投资国外这些巨头几乎就不可能，场外的QDII基金和场内的ETF基金就是非常稀缺的一个小窗口，它们根本就不怕没人买，那么这类产品的稀缺性本身也会带来估值溢价。</span></strong></p><p><span>而从汇率视角来看，在汇率贬值预期下，这个溢价率同样可以被理解。</span></p><p><span>还有另外一个很重要的原因，就是这些跨境ETF是<strong>T+0交易</strong>的，对于国内投机交易情绪浓厚的股民来说，这就是堪比国内可转债一样好玩的品种。</span></p><p><span>国内的可转债品种溢价几十个点，甚至溢价翻倍，同时每日换手率翻倍的都比比皆是，相对来说，未来上涨确定性高又可以T+0的跨境ETF，溢价才几个点并不算得了什么。</span></p><p><span>也就是说，<strong>未来收益确定性+额度限制+产品稀缺性+汇率贬值预期，再加上可以“随时进出”的T+0交易机制，就注定了这些跨境ETF定然会被股民所追捧，进而出现高溢价的情况。</strong></span></p><p><span>这个溢价，会一直伴随这些产品的波动而波动，但大概率不会消失。</span></p><p><span>这些也是监管方大量发布风险提示也难以遏制的根本原因。</span></p><p><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">03</font></strong></p><p><span><strong><font color=\"#3daad6\">尾声</font></strong></span></p><p><span>相信XX，定投纳指，已经成为股民交流群里自嘲的常用语了。</span></p><p><span>其实股民心里都知道，如果国内A股能真正让大多数股民赚到钱，哪怕赚得不多，也不会出现高溢价去抢购跟踪国外股票的ETF这种情况。</span></p><p><strong><span>谁不喜欢看着自家的股票能有出息呢？谁又喜欢舍近求远去买不熟悉的股票呢？</span></strong><span>（全文完）</span></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>纳指ETF被疯炒！到底有没有泡沫？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n纳指ETF被疯炒！到底有没有泡沫？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-07 19:54 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/835192><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近，有券商发信息给股民提示纳指ETF溢价率太高建议理性投资，却被股民回复别多管闲事的事件，把股民们整笑了。这样的回复，让人感到好笑，更让感到心酸。及时提醒风险是券商的本职工作，并没有错；选择高溢价跨境ETF的股民，也没有错。今年到现在，美股纳指涨了22%、日股涨了22%、印度股涨了11%，甚至我们的宝岛股市都涨了31%。但大A呢？创板、创业板都跌了十几个点，有众多大蓝筹撑着的上证也跌了1%。天下...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/835192\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4d460-76cbff22-a433-4e78-aad1-8acdb3ef8024.png?guru_height=627&guru_width=938","relate_stocks":{"159509":"纳指科技","513100":"纳指ETF","513850":"美国50ETF","BK4524":"宅经济概念","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","FDN":"First Trust Dow Jones Internet I","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","ROIC":"Retail Opportunity Investments C","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) 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Diversified AX SGD","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/835192","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2449757392","content_text":"最近，有券商发信息给股民提示纳指ETF溢价率太高建议理性投资，却被股民回复别多管闲事的事件，把股民们整笑了。这样的回复，让人感到好笑，更让感到心酸。及时提醒风险是券商的本职工作，并没有错；选择高溢价跨境ETF的股民，也没有错。今年到现在，美股纳指涨了22%、日股涨了22%、印度股涨了11%，甚至我们的宝岛股市都涨了31%。但大A呢？创板、创业板都跌了十几个点，有众多大蓝筹撑着的上证也跌了1%。天下攘攘，皆为利来，一边是连续几年跌跌不休的国内股市，一边是涨势汹汹的境外市场，如果股民有得选，必然选择能赚钱的一边。毕竟股民拿钱来炒股，就是以赚钱为目的，不是来做慈善的。那么，被不断警示高溢价的跨境ETF，真的是溢价过高了吗？或许并不见得。01超400次风险警示，难阻资金炒疯截至7月5日，剔除港股市场的跨境ETF产品中靠前的年内收益大多数都超过了25%，基本上比国内的头部ETF产品都超出10个点的距离。拿差的对比，跟踪其他国家资产的ETF产品最差的也大概有10个点收益，对比之下，国内及港股的ETF收益率最差的甚至跌了30%以上。差距极为悬殊。在这批跨境ETF中，跟踪美股资产的跨境ETF表现尤为亮眼，尤其是纳指科技ETF，截至7月5日其年内累计收益达到了53.33%。这些产品的交易有多疯狂？比如纳指科技ETF，今年1-6月的成交额分别为99.45亿元、130.61亿元、253.47亿元、137.71亿元、159.09亿元、295.09亿元。换手率方面，今年1-6月以及7月5个交易日分别为141.85%、169.67%、297.12%、171.92%、185.10%、292.84%和71.45%。在同时，这些产品的溢价率也不断走高，大幅偏离基金净值，纳指科技ETF最新的溢价率甚至达到了12.63%。它们也因此成为了被券商频频发布警示公告的重点。据报道，今年以来已有30余只QDII产品合计发布了超400次的溢价风险提示公告，其中景顺长城纳斯达克科技市值加权ETF、华夏野村日经225ETF和易方达原油A人民币3只产品都发布了超60次提示公告。其中最高溢价的纳指科技ETF自2月份以来已发布了80多份提示公告。鉴于此，目前不少的QDII产品已经被限购，Wind数据显示，目前已有超过130只QDII产品处于“暂停申购”甚至“暂停大额申购”的状态，其中不少产品的单日大额申购限额在1万元以下。同时为了遏制过度炒作行为，交易所已经宣布对这些产品的异常交易行为进行从严认定，并视情况从重采取列为重点监控账户、暂停账户交易、限制账户交易、认定为不合格投资者等自律管理措施。这些产品，为什么会出现如此高的溢价？一方面，国家外汇管理局对QDII投资审批有额度限制，这个规模并不是任意增长的，目前在几十家有额度的基金公司中，只有6家额度超过30亿美元，其中最高的不超过77.3亿美元。这点规模，相对国内庞大的投资者群体来说，根本不够分。另一方面，它们的业绩确实是在不断创新高，形成显著的赚钱效应，不断吸引股民和投资机构入场追捧。而投资者的疯狂买入会导致基金公司自身外汇额度飞速耗尽，基金公司只能暂停场外QDII基金的申购，投资者只能转为买入场内的相关ETF产品，进而推高了溢价率。这是最主要的原因。02溢价过高又如何？为什么这些跨境ETF会出现溢价？根本原因就是股民们看好它们的未来预期，愿意给出更高的溢价。只要觉得未来还能涨，现在溢价再高都不是个事儿。比如飞天茅台，出厂价1169，指导价1499，但线下黄牛依然愿意溢价上千去收购，因为他们知道终端价还能卖出更高的价格，并且不愁卖不出。这个逻辑和炒股看PE也是一样的，市场越看好一只股票的未来成长预期，给出的溢价就越高。之前一些所谓的赛道股，能获得几百上千倍的PE，一样止不住资金的疯狂炒作。虽然跨境ETF对标的是一揽子国外的股票，并且等于在这一揽子股票自己的PE上再做一定的溢价。但这个溢价真算高吗？并不见得。以跟踪美国50ETF为例：首先，这些ETF重仓的是微软、苹果、英伟达、亚马逊、META、谷歌等这些头部巨头，这些巨头尽管在过去几年已经出现了数倍的估值增长，但即使如此其本身的PE相对过往情况其实也并不算太高。这背后，是它们一直以来展现出的持续稳定且较高的业绩增长，一些巨头甚至连续出现翻倍式的可怕增长。有些巨头，比如苹果、亚马逊、伯克希尔等业绩增速可能不算高，但也强过国内的茅台。而它们除了业绩稳健，每年还用非常庞大的资金进行分红或回购来回馈投资者，拉高资本投资回报率。苹果公司在过去一直都是高投资回报的典范，其去年度的ROE高达171.95%，资本回报率（ROIC）也有56.4%，还批准了高达1100亿美元的回购计划，这在国内股市来说根本就不可想象。这些世界级的巨头已经没有任何力量能“杀死”它们，它们在过去呈现出的强劲表现在未来也很大概率能延续，所以即使有可能是在股市中股价出现回调，也只是调整。那么从长期视角来看，只要这些股票的长期能上涨，股民就能从这些ETF产品价格上涨中赚到钱，买入它们的估值溢价就并非不可接受。更何况，中国内地投资者想要投资国外这些巨头几乎就不可能，场外的QDII基金和场内的ETF基金就是非常稀缺的一个小窗口，它们根本就不怕没人买，那么这类产品的稀缺性本身也会带来估值溢价。而从汇率视角来看，在汇率贬值预期下，这个溢价率同样可以被理解。还有另外一个很重要的原因，就是这些跨境ETF是T+0交易的，对于国内投机交易情绪浓厚的股民来说，这就是堪比国内可转债一样好玩的品种。国内的可转债品种溢价几十个点，甚至溢价翻倍，同时每日换手率翻倍的都比比皆是，相对来说，未来上涨确定性高又可以T+0的跨境ETF，溢价才几个点并不算得了什么。也就是说，未来收益确定性+额度限制+产品稀缺性+汇率贬值预期，再加上可以“随时进出”的T+0交易机制，就注定了这些跨境ETF定然会被股民所追捧，进而出现高溢价的情况。这个溢价，会一直伴随这些产品的波动而波动，但大概率不会消失。这些也是监管方大量发布风险提示也难以遏制的根本原因。03尾声相信XX，定投纳指，已经成为股民交流群里自嘲的常用语了。其实股民心里都知道，如果国内A股能真正让大多数股民赚到钱，哪怕赚得不多，也不会出现高溢价去抢购跟踪国外股票的ETF这种情况。谁不喜欢看着自家的股票能有出息呢？谁又喜欢舍近求远去买不熟悉的股票呢？（全文完）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324345995321608,"gmtCreate":1720215092594,"gmtModify":1720215094686,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"庄股？？呵呵，你当这是a股呢","listText":"庄股？？呵呵，你当这是a股呢","text":"庄股？？呵呵，你当这是a股呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324345995321608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313454696079472,"gmtCreate":1717542696513,"gmtModify":1717542698597,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你提到了华为我才知道你的屁股做在哪里，装什么外宾？？说了半天你还是不敢做空苹果","listText":"你提到了华为我才知道你的屁股做在哪里，装什么外宾？？说了半天你还是不敢做空苹果","text":"你提到了华为我才知道你的屁股做在哪里，装什么外宾？？说了半天你还是不敢做空苹果","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313454696079472","repostId":"2440541174","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2440541174","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1717479400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2440541174?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-04 13:36","market":"nz","language":"en","title":"Apple: Does Not Create Blue Oceans Anymore","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2440541174","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple Inc.'s recent buyback signals that the company cannot offer shareholders anything beyond this. Apple created several Blue Oceans during the Steve Jobs era, but delivered nothing special after he","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Apple Inc.&#39;s recent buyback signals that the company cannot offer shareholders anything beyond this. Apple created several Blue Oceans during the Steve Jobs era, but delivered nothing special after he left.</p></li><li><p>Chinese competitors pose threats not only in smartphones but also in tablets.</p></li><li><p>The Vision Pro headset, which was aggressively promoted by the company, appears to be a big failure as the company is significantly downgrading its sales volume forecasts for the device.</p></li><li><p>My valuation analysis suggests that the stock is 30% overvalued, which means there is a strong selling opportunity.</p></li></ul><p></p><h2 id=\"id_2485926098\">Investment thesis</h2><p>My previous bearish call about <strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:AAPL) kept up well until the company announced its record $100 billion-plus buyback plan. It was absorbed by the market with great optimism and the stock rallied by around 11% since then. However, to me, this buyback signals that the company likely cannot offer shareholders anything beyond it. Apple was well-known for its ability to create &#34;Blue Oceans&#34; during the Steve Jobs era, but it currently appears that the company struggles to differentiate and create brand new multi-billion industries. Products sales continue to decline across all offerings, as competition intensifies and the aggressively promoted Vision Pro did not fly, as I forecasted in my previous articles.</p><p>It also appears to me that the company is still not in an AI race. While other hyperscalers pour billions into AI data centers, Apple&#39;s response has been to present a new iPad Pro for the market where competition is intensifying rapidly. Even the stock&#39;s biggest fan, Warren Buffett, is aggressively trimming his stake in AAPL. I understand him, especially because my valuation analysis suggests that the stock is currently around 30% overvalued, which is a great selling opportunity. All in all, I downgrade AAPL to &#34;Strong Sell.&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_4163683011\">Recent developments</h2><p>Apple released its latest quarterly earnings on May 2, when the company topped consensus estimates. Despite revenue declining YoY by 4.3%, the adjusted EPS expanded by one cent.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cc61ff8f4e000f0a435e86a2a3b6f0a4\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"213\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>The market reacted to the earnings release with massive optimism because of the announcement of the record $100-billion plus stock buyback plan during the earnings call. Apart from this information, I think there were no more reasons for optimism. Fiscal Q2 showed double-digit YoY revenue decline in three out of five categories.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec4c96edc286579be3a37adce875c7ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"176\"/></p><p>AAPL&#39;s latest 10-Q report</p><p></p><p>In absolute terms, the Services segment once again was the only business line that delivered robust growth, almost $3 billion. Below $300 million YoY, revenue growth in Mac looks insignificant compared to the total quarterly revenue. The company continues exercising its pricing power in services thanks to its formidable brand name and customer loyalty. The latest increases in subscription fees were introduced in late October 2023, relatively recently. Despite Apple&#39;s robust brand loyalty, I doubt that increasing subscription fees any time soon is possible without undermining customers&#39; sentiment. Therefore, momentum in Services revenue is likely to start cooling.</p><p>Apple generates more than half of its revenue from the iPhone. And this revenue stream has been struggling for several past quarters. According to IDC, Apple&#39;s market share has shrunk significantly in calendar Q1 on a YoY basis. The market share dropped from 20.7% to 17.3% YoY, which is the worst performance among the top five vendors.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/eb49c746ec4ebf9af204ceef12610b01\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"/></p><p>IDC</p><p></p><p>The global leader in smartphones, Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) also demonstrated a market share decline in Q1 as Chinese manufacturers are gaining momentum. The competition in smartphones intensifies rapidly and Apple even introduced 20% discounts for iPhones in China. Such a deep discount helped to show China iPhone sales rebounding. To me, this indicates that Apple fails to differentiate itself from competitors. This is a warning sign because Apple has traditionally been at the forefront of the smartphones&#39; premium segment, that is, the differentiation was its key to charging premium prices.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/39dc2a56555e70288dde96c958d46908\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"530\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p></p><p>With interest rates likely to stay higher for longer, there is the risk that discretionary spending will be soft. Moreover, unemployment is projected to grow in the U.S. for two years in the row. This also does not add optimism for discretionary spending and will likely lengthen iPhone replacement cycles.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/28487048a5c23e065b390d4a90ad6562\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"/></p><p>Statista</p><p></p><p>Smartphone industry is not the only where Apple suffers from rapidly intensifying competition from Chinese vendors. According to Statista, Apple&#39;s market share in tablets deteriorated notably on a QoQ basis in Q1, from almost 41% to 32%. Meanwhile, Huawei&#39;s market share in tablets expanded from 7.6% to 9.4%. Apple recently unveiled new iPad Pro with a powerful M4 chip suitable for sophisticated AI applications, which might help to differentiate and regain market share. However, intensifying competition in tablets is also a risk for Apple&#39;s investors.</p><p>Apple&#39;s Vision Pro did not become a banger, as I forecasted in one of my previous articles about the company. According to Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, Apple has reduced its yearly forecasts for the headset to between 400,000 and 450,000 units, down from original projections of up to 800,000. The product has been aggressively promoted, and such a downgrade in the forecast is a big disappointment.</p><p>Finally, it appears that all Apple&#39;s secular challenges are apparent to one of the greatest investors in history, to Warren Buffett. Mr. Buffett has significantly trimmed Berkshire&#39;s (BRK.B) stake in Apple in recent quarters, which is also a red flag for investors, in my opinion. Berkshire&#39;s stake in Apple is still massive, but reducing its stake for two quarters in a row is quite a trend.</p><h2 id=\"id_1362088058\">Valuation update</h2><p>The stock lags the broader market, which is fair given all the fundamental challenges AAPL faces. The stock price rose by around 9% over the last 12 months, compared to a 26% rally in the S&amp;P 500. On a YTD basis, Apple is approximately flat, while the broader market gained around 11%.</p><p>Apple&#39;s valuation ratios are always much higher than the sector median, but it is fair given the company&#39;s scale and profitability. Therefore, it is better to compare current multiples with historical averages. From this perspective, AAPL looks overvalued, as its current valuation ratios are higher than the last five years&#39; averages across the board.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a1286a531f348b6aa25ae3351bd08f96\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"537\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p></p><p>To determine the extent of overvaluation, I must simulate the discounted cash flow [DCF] model. A 9% WACC is close to the level I used previously, and it aligns with the range recommended by valueinvesting.io.</p><p>Revenue consensus estimates are available for the next five years. With around $400 billion annual revenue, the company faces a big &#34;law of large numbers&#34; problem. Therefore, I project a modest 5% revenue CAGR for the years beyond FY 2028. Due to all the secular challenges AAPL faces, I do not expect AAPL to expand its 19.3% TTM FCF ex-SBC margin.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bef94fe94a679b394d78ad40357199d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"238\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s calculations</p><p></p><p>According to my DCF simulation, the business&#39;s fair value is around $2.1 trillion. This is almost 30% lower than the current slightly sub $3 trillion market cap. Therefore, AAPL is substantially overvalued, based on my assumptions.</p><h2 id=\"id_3891777693\">Risks to my bearish thesis</h2><p>Betting against one of the most successful companies of the 21st century is extremely risky. Apple has vast financial resources to hire the best people and brightest engineers which will be able to deliver a new jaw-dropping product. Vision Pro&#39;s failure suggests that there is a creativity crisis in Apple, but for one of the largest companies in the world, there is always a probability to make a stellar comeback.</p><p>As Warren Buffett once said, the stock market is a voting machine in the short run. This means that the share price significantly depends on noisy headlines and sentiment. The recent rally after announcing a record buyback package proves this theory because earnings analysis suggests that there are no reasons to be bullish. That said, this buyback-driven rally can last for a while.</p><p>The upcoming important event from Apple called WWDC 2024 might be another positive short-term catalyst for the stock price. During the event which will be held next week, the company is expected to unveil the new iOS 18 and experts expect that the company will incorporate generative AI features into it.</p><h2 id=\"id_1483573213\">Bottom line</h2><p>To conclude, Apple&#39;s stock is still a &#34;Strong Sell&#34; to me, especially after the recent rally. There were no positive developments apart from the record buyback plan and releasing the new iPad for the market, where competition intensifies rapidly. Apple&#39;s secular challenges are apparent to me, and it appears that even the stock&#39;s biggest fan, the great Warren Buffett, recognizes these threats. The stock is significantly overvalued, in addition.</p><p>Editor&#39;s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Does Not Create Blue Oceans Anymore</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Does Not Create Blue Oceans Anymore\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-04 13:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697201-apple-does-not-create-blue-oceans-anymore><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple Inc.'s recent buyback signals that the company cannot offer shareholders anything beyond this. Apple created several Blue Oceans during the Steve Jobs era, but delivered nothing special after he...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697201-apple-does-not-create-blue-oceans-anymore\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0011850046.USD":"贝莱德全球长线股票 A2 USD","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BJJMRX11.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD","BK4512":"苹果概念","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4176":"多领域控股","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","AAPL":"苹果","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","BK4515":"5G概念","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","BK4571":"数字音乐概念","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4566":"资本集团","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","IE0004445015.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4697201-apple-does-not-create-blue-oceans-anymore","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2440541174","content_text":"Apple Inc.'s recent buyback signals that the company cannot offer shareholders anything beyond this. Apple created several Blue Oceans during the Steve Jobs era, but delivered nothing special after he left.Chinese competitors pose threats not only in smartphones but also in tablets.The Vision Pro headset, which was aggressively promoted by the company, appears to be a big failure as the company is significantly downgrading its sales volume forecasts for the device.My valuation analysis suggests that the stock is 30% overvalued, which means there is a strong selling opportunity.Investment thesisMy previous bearish call about Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) kept up well until the company announced its record $100 billion-plus buyback plan. It was absorbed by the market with great optimism and the stock rallied by around 11% since then. However, to me, this buyback signals that the company likely cannot offer shareholders anything beyond it. Apple was well-known for its ability to create \"Blue Oceans\" during the Steve Jobs era, but it currently appears that the company struggles to differentiate and create brand new multi-billion industries. Products sales continue to decline across all offerings, as competition intensifies and the aggressively promoted Vision Pro did not fly, as I forecasted in my previous articles.It also appears to me that the company is still not in an AI race. While other hyperscalers pour billions into AI data centers, Apple's response has been to present a new iPad Pro for the market where competition is intensifying rapidly. Even the stock's biggest fan, Warren Buffett, is aggressively trimming his stake in AAPL. I understand him, especially because my valuation analysis suggests that the stock is currently around 30% overvalued, which is a great selling opportunity. All in all, I downgrade AAPL to \"Strong Sell.\"Recent developmentsApple released its latest quarterly earnings on May 2, when the company topped consensus estimates. Despite revenue declining YoY by 4.3%, the adjusted EPS expanded by one cent.Seeking AlphaThe market reacted to the earnings release with massive optimism because of the announcement of the record $100-billion plus stock buyback plan during the earnings call. Apart from this information, I think there were no more reasons for optimism. Fiscal Q2 showed double-digit YoY revenue decline in three out of five categories.AAPL's latest 10-Q reportIn absolute terms, the Services segment once again was the only business line that delivered robust growth, almost $3 billion. Below $300 million YoY, revenue growth in Mac looks insignificant compared to the total quarterly revenue. The company continues exercising its pricing power in services thanks to its formidable brand name and customer loyalty. The latest increases in subscription fees were introduced in late October 2023, relatively recently. Despite Apple's robust brand loyalty, I doubt that increasing subscription fees any time soon is possible without undermining customers' sentiment. Therefore, momentum in Services revenue is likely to start cooling.Apple generates more than half of its revenue from the iPhone. And this revenue stream has been struggling for several past quarters. According to IDC, Apple's market share has shrunk significantly in calendar Q1 on a YoY basis. The market share dropped from 20.7% to 17.3% YoY, which is the worst performance among the top five vendors.IDCThe global leader in smartphones, Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF) also demonstrated a market share decline in Q1 as Chinese manufacturers are gaining momentum. The competition in smartphones intensifies rapidly and Apple even introduced 20% discounts for iPhones in China. Such a deep discount helped to show China iPhone sales rebounding. To me, this indicates that Apple fails to differentiate itself from competitors. This is a warning sign because Apple has traditionally been at the forefront of the smartphones' premium segment, that is, the differentiation was its key to charging premium prices.StatistaWith interest rates likely to stay higher for longer, there is the risk that discretionary spending will be soft. Moreover, unemployment is projected to grow in the U.S. for two years in the row. This also does not add optimism for discretionary spending and will likely lengthen iPhone replacement cycles.StatistaSmartphone industry is not the only where Apple suffers from rapidly intensifying competition from Chinese vendors. According to Statista, Apple's market share in tablets deteriorated notably on a QoQ basis in Q1, from almost 41% to 32%. Meanwhile, Huawei's market share in tablets expanded from 7.6% to 9.4%. Apple recently unveiled new iPad Pro with a powerful M4 chip suitable for sophisticated AI applications, which might help to differentiate and regain market share. However, intensifying competition in tablets is also a risk for Apple's investors.Apple's Vision Pro did not become a banger, as I forecasted in one of my previous articles about the company. According to Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, Apple has reduced its yearly forecasts for the headset to between 400,000 and 450,000 units, down from original projections of up to 800,000. The product has been aggressively promoted, and such a downgrade in the forecast is a big disappointment.Finally, it appears that all Apple's secular challenges are apparent to one of the greatest investors in history, to Warren Buffett. Mr. Buffett has significantly trimmed Berkshire's (BRK.B) stake in Apple in recent quarters, which is also a red flag for investors, in my opinion. Berkshire's stake in Apple is still massive, but reducing its stake for two quarters in a row is quite a trend.Valuation updateThe stock lags the broader market, which is fair given all the fundamental challenges AAPL faces. The stock price rose by around 9% over the last 12 months, compared to a 26% rally in the S&P 500. On a YTD basis, Apple is approximately flat, while the broader market gained around 11%.Apple's valuation ratios are always much higher than the sector median, but it is fair given the company's scale and profitability. Therefore, it is better to compare current multiples with historical averages. From this perspective, AAPL looks overvalued, as its current valuation ratios are higher than the last five years' averages across the board.Seeking AlphaTo determine the extent of overvaluation, I must simulate the discounted cash flow [DCF] model. A 9% WACC is close to the level I used previously, and it aligns with the range recommended by valueinvesting.io.Revenue consensus estimates are available for the next five years. With around $400 billion annual revenue, the company faces a big \"law of large numbers\" problem. Therefore, I project a modest 5% revenue CAGR for the years beyond FY 2028. Due to all the secular challenges AAPL faces, I do not expect AAPL to expand its 19.3% TTM FCF ex-SBC margin.Author's calculationsAccording to my DCF simulation, the business's fair value is around $2.1 trillion. This is almost 30% lower than the current slightly sub $3 trillion market cap. Therefore, AAPL is substantially overvalued, based on my assumptions.Risks to my bearish thesisBetting against one of the most successful companies of the 21st century is extremely risky. Apple has vast financial resources to hire the best people and brightest engineers which will be able to deliver a new jaw-dropping product. Vision Pro's failure suggests that there is a creativity crisis in Apple, but for one of the largest companies in the world, there is always a probability to make a stellar comeback.As Warren Buffett once said, the stock market is a voting machine in the short run. This means that the share price significantly depends on noisy headlines and sentiment. The recent rally after announcing a record buyback package proves this theory because earnings analysis suggests that there are no reasons to be bullish. That said, this buyback-driven rally can last for a while.The upcoming important event from Apple called WWDC 2024 might be another positive short-term catalyst for the stock price. During the event which will be held next week, the company is expected to unveil the new iOS 18 and experts expect that the company will incorporate generative AI features into it.Bottom lineTo conclude, Apple's stock is still a \"Strong Sell\" to me, especially after the recent rally. There were no positive developments apart from the record buyback plan and releasing the new iPad for the market, where competition intensifies rapidly. Apple's secular challenges are apparent to me, and it appears that even the stock's biggest fan, the great Warren Buffett, recognizes these threats. The stock is significantly overvalued, in addition.Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":268798192058448,"gmtCreate":1706655495054,"gmtModify":1706655496713,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3562148271530289\">@夜流沙</a>:？？？？？？？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3562148271530289\">@夜流沙</a>:格力的估值太低了，主要是大家对a股已经绝望了。只要gjd不出手，a股立马变成一潭死水。也许a股在酝酿一个五十年难遇的大牛市吧[笑哭]","listText":"Replying to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3562148271530289\">@夜流沙</a>:？？？？？？？//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3562148271530289\">@夜流沙</a>:格力的估值太低了，主要是大家对a股已经绝望了。只要gjd不出手，a股立马变成一潭死水。也许a股在酝酿一个五十年难遇的大牛市吧[笑哭]","text":"Replying to @夜流沙:？？？？？？？//@夜流沙:格力的估值太低了，主要是大家对a股已经绝望了。只要gjd不出手，a股立马变成一潭死水。也许a股在酝酿一个五十年难遇的大牛市吧[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/268798192058448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":956471050,"gmtCreate":1591782651370,"gmtModify":1704196877096,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>散户切记追涨杀跌，别听某些傻叉说什么及时止损，对于散户尤其水平比较低的，只能靠时间换空间，你唯一的赌注就是时间，而机构却因为压力不能长时间等待。追高做多被套了你就适当补仓，等待反弹到盈利，就减仓就可以。如果你做空被套也是同样的道理。小散们你们想下你们赔钱哪次不是因为割肉割的？？你再想想你不割肉的话是不是每次股票经过一段时间又回到了你理想的价格？当然这样操作前提是这种好公司的股票。","listText":"<a 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Ltd(SE)$美国禁腾讯，对sea有影响吗？？？怎么跌的这么厉害？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944106992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547709187469258","authorId":"3547709187469258","name":"69岁的老同志","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbfc965e1dec9632f4d03b604b1682bc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547709187469258","authorIdStr":"3547709187469258"},"content":"一个庄家，操作当然一起","text":"一个庄家，操作当然一起","html":"一个庄家，操作当然一起"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979111284,"gmtCreate":1598020087248,"gmtModify":1704217700473,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>停下补贴就直接死的公司。。一点护城河没有，都是薅羊毛的，最低级的推销方式就是低价策略。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>停下补贴就直接死的公司。。一点护城河没有，都是薅羊毛的，最低级的推销方式就是低价策略。。","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$停下补贴就直接死的公司。。一点护城河没有，都是薅羊毛的，最低级的推销方式就是低价策略。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979111284","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3552918039727369","authorId":"3552918039727369","name":"HelloDean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fca1c9517935ca17e4db1ad96cd1837","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3552918039727369","authorIdStr":"3552918039727369"},"content":"这么简单，淘宝 京东为啥推了特价版仍没阻击成功？ 为啥别的公司无法复制？ 一个这么牛逼的团队被说成只会玩补贴、搞最低级推销的","text":"这么简单，淘宝 京东为啥推了特价版仍没阻击成功？ 为啥别的公司无法复制？ 一个这么牛逼的团队被说成只会玩补贴、搞最低级推销的","html":"这么简单，淘宝 京东为啥推了特价版仍没阻击成功？ 为啥别的公司无法复制？ 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给我整不会了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368790549049784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381151180,"gmtCreate":1612948392940,"gmtModify":1703767273478,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>没看懂，把这些内容删了不就完事了？？至于这么大动干戈？？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a>没看懂，把这些内容删了不就完事了？？至于这么大动干戈？？","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$没看懂，把这些内容删了不就完事了？？至于这么大动干戈？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381151180","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499473596380256","authorId":"3499473596380256","name":"东方华尔街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d28e333a8a8b069d2a813f598c9fb2be","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3499473596380256","authorIdStr":"3499473596380256"},"content":"共chan共七是随便说的吗","text":"共chan共七是随便说的吗","html":"共chan共七是随便说的吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944493923,"gmtCreate":1597071381762,"gmtModify":1704214308418,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华为手机用户没隐私。。随时会被查看，苹果不会。你说大家为什么买苹果？","listText":"华为手机用户没隐私。。随时会被查看，苹果不会。你说大家为什么买苹果？","text":"华为手机用户没隐私。。随时会被查看，苹果不会。你说大家为什么买苹果？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944493923","repostId":"1108331363","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1108331363","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1597070946,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108331363?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-10 22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果要惨了？！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108331363","media":"格隆汇","summary":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/397522","content":"<p>由美方挑起的美中摩擦愈演愈烈。</p>\n<p>从领事馆纷争，到Tiktok遭封禁，再到“净网计划”，美国的霸权之手如今又伸向了微信。</p>\n<p>上周四（6日），美国总统特朗普签署行政令，<b>称TikTok和微信对美国国家安全构成威胁</b>，将在45天后禁止任何美国公司或个人与TikTok母公司字节跳动以及腾讯控股涉及WeChat的相关交易。</p>\n<p>一时间，关于“卸载微信还是换手机”之中二选一的话题成为引爆朋友圈的热门焦点。</p>\n<p>受此消息的影响，腾讯当日应声下跌，今日继续显出颓势，收跌近5%，两日累计蒸发超5000亿港元，最新市值48102亿港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaddb8590256c51fbbd3b46e60fbc217\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>虽说微信在美国的收入占比非常小，但就腾讯的游戏业务来说，海外市场占其收入20%至25%，而美国作为其主要市场，后续或对其业绩产生不确定性影响。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103afac024691c5e99895156b67c4f3e\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"523\">资料来源：官方公告</p>\n<p>玩味的是，<b>刚刚坐稳全球市值第一宝座的苹果也受到了拖累，结束了财报超预期而带来的连日上涨之势</b>，股价在6日下跌2.27%，最新市值为19003亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa6f004a7052914b93960181e0c7ee5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>美国这一出击显然也伤害了自家企业的利益。</p>\n<p>毕竟一旦特朗普的行政令真正落地，禁止所有涉及微信的交易，<b>中国作为苹果公司重要战略市场之一，其iPhone手机销售以及相关供应链势必受到负面影响</b>。</p>\n<p>“杀敌三千，自损一万”，美国这一霸权主义可谓是表露得淋漓尽致。</p>\n<p><b>苹果难守全球市值第一？</b></p>\n<p>苹果的下跌充分了市场的预期情绪。</p>\n<p>虽然<b>iPhone等硬件业务虽不再是其主要发展重心，但目前依旧是苹果的重要营收组成部分</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “本季度iPhone营收264.18亿美元，同比增长1.66%，高于市场预期（223.7亿美元）。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>苹果收入业务构成情况</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f155613d207b56ab565a3b1481d8c36\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"372\">数据来源：Apple disclosures</p>\n<p>尤其是在疫情时期，这一业务并没有“拖后腿”，<b>薄利多销为核心的低价策略使得苹果手机销量的逆势增长</b>，有效抵消了疫情期间人们消费信心下降带来的消极影响。</p>\n<p>根据2020年全球智能手机二季度出货量的数据显示，华为成功登顶，出货量5580万部，但同比下降5.1%；三星紧随其后，出货量为5420万部，同比下降28.9%。；<b>而苹果则是逆势同比上涨11.2%。这主要归功于于iPhone中国市场零售销量达到1300万部，同比增长62%，环比增长225%，远超其它品牌。</b></p>\n<p>2020年第二季度全球智能手机出货量情况</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23af9bd461e58a4939e3e5fe54ba9d5\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"289\">数据来源：IDC</p>\n<p>苹果已不再是当年那个光卖手机的公司了，它已然走出舒适圈，<b>试图扩大 IOS 生态系统的覆盖范围</b>，通过业绩增长爆发力强的服务业务，为公司的可持续性盈利助力。</p>\n<p>为实现这一目标，它依旧<b>需要以iPhone为首的大量硬件终端的售出去加固服务收入，加强用户的黏性，</b>尤其是在服务业务增速创下了2015年以来新低的这一时刻。</p>\n<p>而在全球化浪潮之下，<b>中国市场已然成为苹果业绩增长的“第二摇篮”</b>，无论是必要硬件收入，还是成为业绩重要支撑的服务业务，它无法放过中国市场这一潜力大蛋糕，且需要这一市场上生产制造供应链的“撑腰”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <b>2019年中国区App Store收入达到2460亿美元，约合人民币17256.9亿，占收入总额的47.4%，为全球收入贡献最高的市场</b>。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>苹果公司各地区营收占比</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e82e2396cb9a7bd13255f32cc0bdcc8\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"247\">数据来源：信达证券</p>\n<p>其中，iPhone的销量更是依赖于此，要知道中国市场约占iPhone销量的20%，<b>一旦微信遭到“封杀”，对苹果的损失不可想象。</b></p>\n<p>天风国际郭明錤有测算，若苹果公司仅仅移除的是美国App Store上的微信，那么<b>预估iPhone出货量将下调3–6%</b>，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等产品的年出货量则下调低于3%；</p>\n<p>若苹果公司移除全球App Store上的微信，则苹果硬件在中国市场的出货将出现明显衰退，<b>预计iPhone的年出货量将下调25–30%</b>，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等年出货量则下调15–25%。</p>\n<p>对于国人来说，没有微信的iPhone等于“无用之物”，换华为不香吗？</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38fb2efb4988f8ae7cf2b59e4e18ff8\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"604\">数据来源：微博</p>\n<p>即便后期5G版iPhone的面世也很可能无法撼动这一选择，更何况该款产品或继续“姗姗来迟”。</p>\n<p>目前苹果在标准普尔500指数中的权重达到6.5%，<b>已然成为40年以来对标普500指数影响最大的成分股。一旦失去中国市场的潜在预期，且不论对苹果造成多大打击，美股走势、乃至美国经济都可能受到较大影响。</b></p>\n<p>美股风险波动性情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a883ae14a29371f5e815e60322dcc67\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"276\"></p>\n<p><b>来自美国霸权主义的恐慌</b></p>\n<p>显然，当美国亲手点燃这把外交之火，针对腾讯等公司进行打压之时，自己也无法独善其身。</p>\n<p>这个道理美国未必不懂。</p>\n<p>但它依旧一意孤行，选择这一激进的手段去无差别与中国科技企业“针锋相对”，就值得深究了。</p>\n<p>仅仅是为了美名其曰的“防止国家安全隐患”？</p>\n<p>又或者是川普为了大选而赢得民心的“不择手段”？</p>\n<p>往深层次看，更可能是<b>源自一种埋藏在其种族基因里的恐惧，即美国害怕失去其所谓的霸权地位，或者说它正在失去。</b></p>\n<p>美国二季度GDP增速</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da136f21be4b66f22674b8c932e0a8e0\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"275\">数据来源：开源证券</p>\n<p>2020年新冠疫情的突发打了美国一个措手不及，无论是无视病毒风险使得其反复爆发，还是弗洛伊德事件激化种族矛盾，又或是美国经济陷入二战以来的衰退...这一系列的颓势都表明了：<b>美国发展进入了一定的停滞期，且趋于悲观。</b></p>\n<p>2020年IMF世界经济增速预测</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d0bd28c354eff67978cddad21cd380b\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\">数据来源：民生证券</p>\n<p>而无论何时，科技是第一生产力，<b>谁能拔得科技头筹，谁就拥有强势的话语权。</b></p>\n<p>长久以来，美国占据着全球科技领域的制高点，在以苹果为首的科技巨头的庇护之下展露着自己的野望。</p>\n<p>然而，此一时彼一时。</p>\n<p>在全球化浪潮之下，我国经济实力稳中有进发展，科技水平日益提升，已步入世界前列，中美两国综合实力进一步缩小，再加上国内疫情有效受控，人民生活步入正轨，而<b>这一光明形势却刺激了美国的“被害妄想意识”</b>——严重威胁美国的全球霸权，进而引发了近年来美国对华为等先进企业的频繁打压。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “美国的生存法则就是扩张，即使我们要违背它，也不可能。”——美国总统布坎南\n</blockquote>\n<p>这种意识是由来已久的。其诞生于西方独有的文化土壤里，成长于基于权力和扩张意识的霸权主义和强权政治，通过近期一系列的言论和政策攻势便可以发现，美国以自我为中心<b>，即便是自己元气大伤，也要全面霸凌并打压以中国为首的国家的崛起。</b></p>\n<p>这一现状却会让人们明白，<b>现在的美国发展确实遭遇瓶颈</b>，不限制其他国家的发展就无法凸显自己。而如此一来，这在国际战略格局日益复杂的今天，它已经在这场假想性十足的竞争中不占优势。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>都说新时代新气象，而从美国近期的打压行径可以看出，它依旧没有跳出自己的强权政治世界里，利用国家力量，不惜自身受损，也要发动“外交战”去“绑架”他国。</p>\n<p>这不仅加剧了中美两国的紧张关系，使其濒临脱钩边缘，也使得国际政治环境的不稳定性加剧，不利于疫情时期全球发展进程的复苏。</p>\n<p>而<b>这一由单方挑事的纷争只能暴露了美国的不自信</b>，同时侧面反映了：在新一轮科技革命里，我国手握着通向未来科技之路的正确钥匙，后期会坚持秉持开放与合作的态度，应对和消解其负面效应，道路或许曲折，但路的尽头光明依旧。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>苹果要惨了？！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果要惨了？！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-10 22:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>由美方挑起的美中摩擦愈演愈烈。</p>\n<p>从领事馆纷争，到Tiktok遭封禁，再到“净网计划”，美国的霸权之手如今又伸向了微信。</p>\n<p>上周四（6日），美国总统特朗普签署行政令，<b>称TikTok和微信对美国国家安全构成威胁</b>，将在45天后禁止任何美国公司或个人与TikTok母公司字节跳动以及腾讯控股涉及WeChat的相关交易。</p>\n<p>一时间，关于“卸载微信还是换手机”之中二选一的话题成为引爆朋友圈的热门焦点。</p>\n<p>受此消息的影响，腾讯当日应声下跌，今日继续显出颓势，收跌近5%，两日累计蒸发超5000亿港元，最新市值48102亿港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaddb8590256c51fbbd3b46e60fbc217\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>虽说微信在美国的收入占比非常小，但就腾讯的游戏业务来说，海外市场占其收入20%至25%，而美国作为其主要市场，后续或对其业绩产生不确定性影响。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103afac024691c5e99895156b67c4f3e\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"523\">资料来源：官方公告</p>\n<p>玩味的是，<b>刚刚坐稳全球市值第一宝座的苹果也受到了拖累，结束了财报超预期而带来的连日上涨之势</b>，股价在6日下跌2.27%，最新市值为19003亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa6f004a7052914b93960181e0c7ee5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>美国这一出击显然也伤害了自家企业的利益。</p>\n<p>毕竟一旦特朗普的行政令真正落地，禁止所有涉及微信的交易，<b>中国作为苹果公司重要战略市场之一，其iPhone手机销售以及相关供应链势必受到负面影响</b>。</p>\n<p>“杀敌三千，自损一万”，美国这一霸权主义可谓是表露得淋漓尽致。</p>\n<p><b>苹果难守全球市值第一？</b></p>\n<p>苹果的下跌充分了市场的预期情绪。</p>\n<p>虽然<b>iPhone等硬件业务虽不再是其主要发展重心，但目前依旧是苹果的重要营收组成部分</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “本季度iPhone营收264.18亿美元，同比增长1.66%，高于市场预期（223.7亿美元）。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>苹果收入业务构成情况</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f155613d207b56ab565a3b1481d8c36\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"372\">数据来源：Apple disclosures</p>\n<p>尤其是在疫情时期，这一业务并没有“拖后腿”，<b>薄利多销为核心的低价策略使得苹果手机销量的逆势增长</b>，有效抵消了疫情期间人们消费信心下降带来的消极影响。</p>\n<p>根据2020年全球智能手机二季度出货量的数据显示，华为成功登顶，出货量5580万部，但同比下降5.1%；三星紧随其后，出货量为5420万部，同比下降28.9%。；<b>而苹果则是逆势同比上涨11.2%。这主要归功于于iPhone中国市场零售销量达到1300万部，同比增长62%，环比增长225%，远超其它品牌。</b></p>\n<p>2020年第二季度全球智能手机出货量情况</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23af9bd461e58a4939e3e5fe54ba9d5\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"289\">数据来源：IDC</p>\n<p>苹果已不再是当年那个光卖手机的公司了，它已然走出舒适圈，<b>试图扩大 IOS 生态系统的覆盖范围</b>，通过业绩增长爆发力强的服务业务，为公司的可持续性盈利助力。</p>\n<p>为实现这一目标，它依旧<b>需要以iPhone为首的大量硬件终端的售出去加固服务收入，加强用户的黏性，</b>尤其是在服务业务增速创下了2015年以来新低的这一时刻。</p>\n<p>而在全球化浪潮之下，<b>中国市场已然成为苹果业绩增长的“第二摇篮”</b>，无论是必要硬件收入，还是成为业绩重要支撑的服务业务，它无法放过中国市场这一潜力大蛋糕，且需要这一市场上生产制造供应链的“撑腰”。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <b>2019年中国区App Store收入达到2460亿美元，约合人民币17256.9亿，占收入总额的47.4%，为全球收入贡献最高的市场</b>。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>苹果公司各地区营收占比</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e82e2396cb9a7bd13255f32cc0bdcc8\" tg-width=\"406\" tg-height=\"247\">数据来源：信达证券</p>\n<p>其中，iPhone的销量更是依赖于此，要知道中国市场约占iPhone销量的20%，<b>一旦微信遭到“封杀”，对苹果的损失不可想象。</b></p>\n<p>天风国际郭明錤有测算，若苹果公司仅仅移除的是美国App Store上的微信，那么<b>预估iPhone出货量将下调3–6%</b>，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等产品的年出货量则下调低于3%；</p>\n<p>若苹果公司移除全球App Store上的微信，则苹果硬件在中国市场的出货将出现明显衰退，<b>预计iPhone的年出货量将下调25–30%</b>，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等年出货量则下调15–25%。</p>\n<p>对于国人来说，没有微信的iPhone等于“无用之物”，换华为不香吗？</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38fb2efb4988f8ae7cf2b59e4e18ff8\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"604\">数据来源：微博</p>\n<p>即便后期5G版iPhone的面世也很可能无法撼动这一选择，更何况该款产品或继续“姗姗来迟”。</p>\n<p>目前苹果在标准普尔500指数中的权重达到6.5%，<b>已然成为40年以来对标普500指数影响最大的成分股。一旦失去中国市场的潜在预期，且不论对苹果造成多大打击，美股走势、乃至美国经济都可能受到较大影响。</b></p>\n<p>美股风险波动性情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a883ae14a29371f5e815e60322dcc67\" tg-width=\"527\" tg-height=\"276\"></p>\n<p><b>来自美国霸权主义的恐慌</b></p>\n<p>显然，当美国亲手点燃这把外交之火，针对腾讯等公司进行打压之时，自己也无法独善其身。</p>\n<p>这个道理美国未必不懂。</p>\n<p>但它依旧一意孤行，选择这一激进的手段去无差别与中国科技企业“针锋相对”，就值得深究了。</p>\n<p>仅仅是为了美名其曰的“防止国家安全隐患”？</p>\n<p>又或者是川普为了大选而赢得民心的“不择手段”？</p>\n<p>往深层次看，更可能是<b>源自一种埋藏在其种族基因里的恐惧，即美国害怕失去其所谓的霸权地位，或者说它正在失去。</b></p>\n<p>美国二季度GDP增速</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da136f21be4b66f22674b8c932e0a8e0\" tg-width=\"524\" tg-height=\"275\">数据来源：开源证券</p>\n<p>2020年新冠疫情的突发打了美国一个措手不及，无论是无视病毒风险使得其反复爆发，还是弗洛伊德事件激化种族矛盾，又或是美国经济陷入二战以来的衰退...这一系列的颓势都表明了：<b>美国发展进入了一定的停滞期，且趋于悲观。</b></p>\n<p>2020年IMF世界经济增速预测</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d0bd28c354eff67978cddad21cd380b\" tg-width=\"418\" tg-height=\"287\">数据来源：民生证券</p>\n<p>而无论何时，科技是第一生产力，<b>谁能拔得科技头筹，谁就拥有强势的话语权。</b></p>\n<p>长久以来，美国占据着全球科技领域的制高点，在以苹果为首的科技巨头的庇护之下展露着自己的野望。</p>\n<p>然而，此一时彼一时。</p>\n<p>在全球化浪潮之下，我国经济实力稳中有进发展，科技水平日益提升，已步入世界前列，中美两国综合实力进一步缩小，再加上国内疫情有效受控，人民生活步入正轨，而<b>这一光明形势却刺激了美国的“被害妄想意识”</b>——严重威胁美国的全球霸权，进而引发了近年来美国对华为等先进企业的频繁打压。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “美国的生存法则就是扩张，即使我们要违背它，也不可能。”——美国总统布坎南\n</blockquote>\n<p>这种意识是由来已久的。其诞生于西方独有的文化土壤里，成长于基于权力和扩张意识的霸权主义和强权政治，通过近期一系列的言论和政策攻势便可以发现，美国以自我为中心<b>，即便是自己元气大伤，也要全面霸凌并打压以中国为首的国家的崛起。</b></p>\n<p>这一现状却会让人们明白，<b>现在的美国发展确实遭遇瓶颈</b>，不限制其他国家的发展就无法凸显自己。而如此一来，这在国际战略格局日益复杂的今天，它已经在这场假想性十足的竞争中不占优势。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>都说新时代新气象，而从美国近期的打压行径可以看出，它依旧没有跳出自己的强权政治世界里，利用国家力量，不惜自身受损，也要发动“外交战”去“绑架”他国。</p>\n<p>这不仅加剧了中美两国的紧张关系，使其濒临脱钩边缘，也使得国际政治环境的不稳定性加剧，不利于疫情时期全球发展进程的复苏。</p>\n<p>而<b>这一由单方挑事的纷争只能暴露了美国的不自信</b>，同时侧面反映了：在新一轮科技革命里，我国手握着通向未来科技之路的正确钥匙，后期会坚持秉持开放与合作的态度，应对和消解其负面效应，道路或许曲折，但路的尽头光明依旧。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7da851f3a1d7bfb503564448d4dfdc","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108331363","content_text":"由美方挑起的美中摩擦愈演愈烈。\n从领事馆纷争，到Tiktok遭封禁，再到“净网计划”，美国的霸权之手如今又伸向了微信。\n上周四（6日），美国总统特朗普签署行政令，称TikTok和微信对美国国家安全构成威胁，将在45天后禁止任何美国公司或个人与TikTok母公司字节跳动以及腾讯控股涉及WeChat的相关交易。\n一时间，关于“卸载微信还是换手机”之中二选一的话题成为引爆朋友圈的热门焦点。\n受此消息的影响，腾讯当日应声下跌，今日继续显出颓势，收跌近5%，两日累计蒸发超5000亿港元，最新市值48102亿港元。\n\n虽说微信在美国的收入占比非常小，但就腾讯的游戏业务来说，海外市场占其收入20%至25%，而美国作为其主要市场，后续或对其业绩产生不确定性影响。\n资料来源：官方公告\n玩味的是，刚刚坐稳全球市值第一宝座的苹果也受到了拖累，结束了财报超预期而带来的连日上涨之势，股价在6日下跌2.27%，最新市值为19003亿美元。\n\n美国这一出击显然也伤害了自家企业的利益。\n毕竟一旦特朗普的行政令真正落地，禁止所有涉及微信的交易，中国作为苹果公司重要战略市场之一，其iPhone手机销售以及相关供应链势必受到负面影响。\n“杀敌三千，自损一万”，美国这一霸权主义可谓是表露得淋漓尽致。\n苹果难守全球市值第一？\n苹果的下跌充分了市场的预期情绪。\n虽然iPhone等硬件业务虽不再是其主要发展重心，但目前依旧是苹果的重要营收组成部分。\n\n “本季度iPhone营收264.18亿美元，同比增长1.66%，高于市场预期（223.7亿美元）。”——公开数据\n\n苹果收入业务构成情况\n数据来源：Apple disclosures\n尤其是在疫情时期，这一业务并没有“拖后腿”，薄利多销为核心的低价策略使得苹果手机销量的逆势增长，有效抵消了疫情期间人们消费信心下降带来的消极影响。\n根据2020年全球智能手机二季度出货量的数据显示，华为成功登顶，出货量5580万部，但同比下降5.1%；三星紧随其后，出货量为5420万部，同比下降28.9%。；而苹果则是逆势同比上涨11.2%。这主要归功于于iPhone中国市场零售销量达到1300万部，同比增长62%，环比增长225%，远超其它品牌。\n2020年第二季度全球智能手机出货量情况\n数据来源：IDC\n苹果已不再是当年那个光卖手机的公司了，它已然走出舒适圈，试图扩大 IOS 生态系统的覆盖范围，通过业绩增长爆发力强的服务业务，为公司的可持续性盈利助力。\n为实现这一目标，它依旧需要以iPhone为首的大量硬件终端的售出去加固服务收入，加强用户的黏性，尤其是在服务业务增速创下了2015年以来新低的这一时刻。\n而在全球化浪潮之下，中国市场已然成为苹果业绩增长的“第二摇篮”，无论是必要硬件收入，还是成为业绩重要支撑的服务业务，它无法放过中国市场这一潜力大蛋糕，且需要这一市场上生产制造供应链的“撑腰”。\n\n “\n 2019年中国区App Store收入达到2460亿美元，约合人民币17256.9亿，占收入总额的47.4%，为全球收入贡献最高的市场。”——公开数据\n\n苹果公司各地区营收占比\n数据来源：信达证券\n其中，iPhone的销量更是依赖于此，要知道中国市场约占iPhone销量的20%，一旦微信遭到“封杀”，对苹果的损失不可想象。\n天风国际郭明錤有测算，若苹果公司仅仅移除的是美国App Store上的微信，那么预估iPhone出货量将下调3–6%，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等产品的年出货量则下调低于3%；\n若苹果公司移除全球App Store上的微信，则苹果硬件在中国市场的出货将出现明显衰退，预计iPhone的年出货量将下调25–30%，其他Apple硬件设备如AirPods、iPad与Mac等年出货量则下调15–25%。\n对于国人来说，没有微信的iPhone等于“无用之物”，换华为不香吗？\n数据来源：微博\n即便后期5G版iPhone的面世也很可能无法撼动这一选择，更何况该款产品或继续“姗姗来迟”。\n目前苹果在标准普尔500指数中的权重达到6.5%，已然成为40年以来对标普500指数影响最大的成分股。一旦失去中国市场的潜在预期，且不论对苹果造成多大打击，美股走势、乃至美国经济都可能受到较大影响。\n美股风险波动性情况\n\n来自美国霸权主义的恐慌\n显然，当美国亲手点燃这把外交之火，针对腾讯等公司进行打压之时，自己也无法独善其身。\n这个道理美国未必不懂。\n但它依旧一意孤行，选择这一激进的手段去无差别与中国科技企业“针锋相对”，就值得深究了。\n仅仅是为了美名其曰的“防止国家安全隐患”？\n又或者是川普为了大选而赢得民心的“不择手段”？\n往深层次看，更可能是源自一种埋藏在其种族基因里的恐惧，即美国害怕失去其所谓的霸权地位，或者说它正在失去。\n美国二季度GDP增速\n数据来源：开源证券\n2020年新冠疫情的突发打了美国一个措手不及，无论是无视病毒风险使得其反复爆发，还是弗洛伊德事件激化种族矛盾，又或是美国经济陷入二战以来的衰退...这一系列的颓势都表明了：美国发展进入了一定的停滞期，且趋于悲观。\n2020年IMF世界经济增速预测\n数据来源：民生证券\n而无论何时，科技是第一生产力，谁能拔得科技头筹，谁就拥有强势的话语权。\n长久以来，美国占据着全球科技领域的制高点，在以苹果为首的科技巨头的庇护之下展露着自己的野望。\n然而，此一时彼一时。\n在全球化浪潮之下，我国经济实力稳中有进发展，科技水平日益提升，已步入世界前列，中美两国综合实力进一步缩小，再加上国内疫情有效受控，人民生活步入正轨，而这一光明形势却刺激了美国的“被害妄想意识”——严重威胁美国的全球霸权，进而引发了近年来美国对华为等先进企业的频繁打压。\n\n “美国的生存法则就是扩张，即使我们要违背它，也不可能。”——美国总统布坎南\n\n这种意识是由来已久的。其诞生于西方独有的文化土壤里，成长于基于权力和扩张意识的霸权主义和强权政治，通过近期一系列的言论和政策攻势便可以发现，美国以自我为中心，即便是自己元气大伤，也要全面霸凌并打压以中国为首的国家的崛起。\n这一现状却会让人们明白，现在的美国发展确实遭遇瓶颈，不限制其他国家的发展就无法凸显自己。而如此一来，这在国际战略格局日益复杂的今天，它已经在这场假想性十足的竞争中不占优势。\n结语\n都说新时代新气象，而从美国近期的打压行径可以看出，它依旧没有跳出自己的强权政治世界里，利用国家力量，不惜自身受损，也要发动“外交战”去“绑架”他国。\n这不仅加剧了中美两国的紧张关系，使其濒临脱钩边缘，也使得国际政治环境的不稳定性加剧，不利于疫情时期全球发展进程的复苏。\n而这一由单方挑事的纷争只能暴露了美国的不自信，同时侧面反映了：在新一轮科技革命里，我国手握着通向未来科技之路的正确钥匙，后期会坚持秉持开放与合作的态度，应对和消解其负面效应，道路或许曲折，但路的尽头光明依旧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557304068319584","authorId":"3557304068319584","name":"幸运鑫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c167a1d2b281226f576fc525757e95","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557304068319584","authorIdStr":"3557304068319584"},"content":"我已放弃安卓系统多年，求科普详情？","text":"我已放弃安卓系统多年，求科普详情？","html":"我已放弃安卓系统多年，求科普详情？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979085713,"gmtCreate":1597933390532,"gmtModify":1704217326992,"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>这家公司目前瞎整一堆乱七八糟的app，你好好农好淘宝就可以了，把天猫分开这么说吧，也是个并不成功的例子，你干嘛非要客户多下载一个app？？？。又来个特价版，聚划算，你有病吗？？拼多多是烂，但人家没像你整得一堆乱七八糟的东西，app要做减法，懂吗？？你把客户整得好乱啊。个人建议，你就一个淘宝，一个天猫，一个1688就极限了，不要再瞎弄app了，真的我的脑子好乱","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>这家公司目前瞎整一堆乱七八糟的app，你好好农好淘宝就可以了，把天猫分开这么说吧，也是个并不成功的例子，你干嘛非要客户多下载一个app？？？。又来个特价版，聚划算，你有病吗？？拼多多是烂，但人家没像你整得一堆乱七八糟的东西，app要做减法，懂吗？？你把客户整得好乱啊。个人建议，你就一个淘宝，一个天猫，一个1688就极限了，不要再瞎弄app了，真的我的脑子好乱","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$这家公司目前瞎整一堆乱七八糟的app，你好好农好淘宝就可以了，把天猫分开这么说吧，也是个并不成功的例子，你干嘛非要客户多下载一个app？？？。又来个特价版，聚划算，你有病吗？？拼多多是烂，但人家没像你整得一堆乱七八糟的东西，app要做减法，懂吗？？你把客户整得好乱啊。个人建议，你就一个淘宝，一个天猫，一个1688就极限了，不要再瞎弄app了，真的我的脑子好乱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979085713","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3548231844240896","authorId":"3548231844240896","name":"留美小韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a62dbbd322377fcc7c0533fb8875bde","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548231844240896","authorIdStr":"3548231844240896"},"content":"跌了什么分析都能出来 涨了什么牛都能吹起来","text":"跌了什么分析都能出来 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