股神1975在2021的个人主页 - 老虎社区

股神1975在2021

股神1975在2021

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IP属地：江苏

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股神1975在2021

12-09

放屁贴忽悠鬼呢

B站集体测华为手机的麒麟9020芯片！性能提升超30%

股神1975在2021

10-11

$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$

股神1975在2021

05-24

B S马斯克

事关美对华电动汽车加征关税，马斯克表态

股神1975在2021

04-25

骗骗自己，会到10000[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]

一次财报的miss并不改变趋势，Meta很可能主导下个十年

股神1975在2021

04-22

$快手-W(01024)$ 股价这个样子，回购40亿。又发了25亿期权？程一笑你拿股东当猴耍呢？

股神1975在2021

04-17

臭不要脸的垃圾，还什么钢铁侠。我早就看透他

抱歉，原内容已删除

股神1975在2021

04-17

臭不要脸

Tesla Asks Investors to Approve Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Again

股神1975在2021

03-17

华为？？？？哈哈哈哈，一年后死都不知

管中窥豹！华为登顶第一，小米跌出前五，国产手机何去何从？

股神1975在2021

2023-12-27

写这文章大概是**了吧哈哈

抱歉，原内容已删除

股神1975在2021

2021-03-24

$TUI AG(TUI.UK)$股神来也

股神1975在2021

2021-02-08

$AMC院线(AMC)$上周错过了1000万。预计目标位十年内20。却是一周就到了。

股神1975在2021

2021-01-27

$游戏驿站(GME)$美国SEC和FBI宣布调查GME股票操纵案件。

股神1975在2021

2020-09-12

$西方石油(OXY)$股神进场抄底，目标位45。

股神1975在2021

2020-08-10

$美国航空(AAL)$不到30坚决不出仓！疫苗10月份获批

股神1975在2021

2020-08-08

作者大更吃饱了吧

美国航空业：我真的飞不动了

股神1975在2021

2020-05-18

$美国航空(AAL)$空头快平

股神1975在2021

2020-05-07

哈哈，迷信股神不如信自己

巴菲特，老了？

股神1975在2021

2020-05-04

$美国航空(AAL)$巴菲特也配叫股神？纯**

股神1975在2021

2020-02-27

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$一直做空一直爽，哈哈哈

股神1975在2021

2020-02-19

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$打草搂兔子。有机会就捞，在10美分等你哦

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09:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"B站集体测华为手机的麒麟9020芯片！性能提升超30%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2489783637","media":"大局观察室","summary":"好几个知名数码博主不约而同地发布了华为Mate 70系列的测评视频，重点都对准了那颗神秘的麒麟9020芯片。往前倒推到11月26日，华为在Mate品牌盛典上正式发布了这批新机。跟搭载麒麟9010的华为Pura 70 Ultra一比，性能提升了26.7%，能效方面更是追平了老前辈麒麟9000。\"从麒麟9020的惊艳表现，到中国芯片产业的整体突破，再到四大协会的集体表态，这一系列事件勾勒出了一幅令人振奋的画面。","content":"<html><body><p>B站最近可热闹了！一大群测评博主同时放出了华为新机Mate 70系列的芯片视频。这次的主角是麒麟9020芯片，性能提升让人眼前一亮。这颗被称为\"纯血\"华为芯片的表现到底有多猛？在美国制裁的重压下，中国芯片产业又交出了怎样的成绩单？让我们一起来扒一扒这个热门话题。</p><p>【事件经过】</p><p>2024年12月6日这天，B站上突然热闹非凡。好几个知名数码博主不约而同地发布了华为Mate 70系列的测评视频，重点都对准了那颗神秘的麒麟9020芯片。这些测评博主们可不是光说不练，他们真刀真枪地拆解了华为Mate 70 Pro+和其他高端机型，把这颗备受关注的芯片剖析了个遍。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2024/C89400A072D8237D7B5F937070A820F972ACC810_size61_w640_h533.jpg\"/></p><p>说到这个麒麟9020，可真是让人大开眼界。极客湾的显示，这颗芯片在CPU方面可是玩了把大的 - 完全甩掉了ARM的公版设计，搞了个自己的小核心。这么一搞，浮点性能比上一代提升了将近一半，直接把性能拉到了接近2GHz的A510水平。</p><p>拆机的时候，测评博主们可算是把这颗芯片的老底都扒出来了。一个超级大核心，跑到2.5GHz；三个中等核心，频率2.15GHz；再加上四个1.6GHz的小核心。GPU换成了Maleoon 920，芯片整体比上一代大了不少，又宽又厚。</p><p>性能更是亮眼，安兔兔跑分直接飙到125万分左右，比上一代提升超过30%。先看评测的博主玩了把游戏，发现帧率稳得跟尺子画的直线似的，30分钟下来平均帧率稳在59.8，这下可算是让华为重新夺回了\"性能霸主\"的称号。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2024/EA5DA8461652F26A4C8C986F6280E872CF2E5AE9_size43_w640_h479.jpg\"/></p><p>往前倒推到11月26日，华为在Mate品牌盛典上正式发布了这批新机。四个版本价格跨度不小，从5499到11999元不等。余承东在会上可是说得信心满满，声称新机整体性能比去年提升了40%。他还放了个大招 - 从2025年开始，华为的手机和平板都要用上\"纯血\"鸿蒙系统。</p><p>12月4日，这批新机终于开售了。华为终端BG的何刚放话说，这些产品用的每一颗芯片都能实现国产化，这话一出，整个市场都沸腾了。</p><p>但是好事多磨，就在12月2日，美国商务部又出手了，一口气把140家公司放进了黑名单，其中136家都是中国企业。这次主要针对的是半导体设备供应商、软件公司和材料商，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002371\">北方华创</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301269\">华大九天</a>、凯世通半导体等大企业都榜上有名。</p><p>不过有意思的是，美国这波制裁似乎并没有达到预期效果。央视的数据显示，今年前10个月，中国的半导体出口已经达到9311.7亿元，增长率超过21%。按这个势头，到11月就能突破1万亿元大关。</p><p>更有意思的是，12月3日，中国四大行业协会集体发声，给美国芯片贴上了\"不安全、不可靠\"的标签，建议国内企业谨慎采购美国芯片。中国商务部也在12月5日表态，说要采取必要措施来维护自身权益。</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2024/226CCE597AEF1E86353C37CD7C022566A8D9BDFF_size22_w640_h332.jpg\"/></p><p>这一系列事件展现了中国芯片产业在压力下的进步。从华为新机的表现来看，国产芯片正在逐步突破技术瓶颈，而且在整体产业规模上也取得了可观的成绩。这场技术角力还在继续，但国产芯片已经显示出了强劲的发展势头。</p><p>这波科技圈的大瓜还远没完。有意思的是，不少数码博主在过程中发现，麒麟9020在GPU性能上也是实打实的硬货。跟搭载麒麟9010的华为Pura 70 Ultra一比，性能提升了26.7%，能效方面更是追平了老前辈麒麟9000。这下可把不少果粉都看傻眼了。</p><p>值得一提的是，华为这次在AI方面也是下足了功夫。新机不光是硬件强悍，配上了原生鸿蒙系统后，整体体验更是上了一个台阶。日常使用的流畅度、游戏性能的稳定性都有明显提升，这让不少原本对国产手机持观望态度的用户都坐不住了。</p><p>而在美国不断加码制裁的背景下，中国芯片产业却展现出了惊人的韧性。每个月930亿元左右的出口额，这个数字足以让任何质疑者闭嘴。五年来的制裁不仅没有打垮中国的芯片产业，反而让它变得更加坚韧。</p><p>【网友热评】</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2024/AB06E3D8A4F2A28B55B2D5B21CF694960F63A63A_size22_w600_h295.jpg\"/></p><p>@科技迷小陈：</p><p>\"华为这波真的牛批！被制裁这么久还能整出这么猛的芯片，服气！\"</p><p>@数码发烧友老王：</p><p>\"麒麟9020这性能提升也太离谱了，看来这几年华为是真憋了一把劲啊。\"</p><p>@手机控阿明：</p><p>\"游戏帧率能稳定在59.8，这已经不是进步而是质的飞跃了好吧！\"</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2024/FEB3F9041FE98E300999E76EADB286BBD7F1CE94_size36_w640_h355.jpg\"/></p><p>@科技观察者小林：</p><p>\"美国制裁没把我们打趴下，反而逼出了更强的国产科技，这波属于是搬起石头砸自己的脚啊。\"</p><p>@数码达人老张：</p><p>\"芯片出口破万亿，这就是最好的回应，实力说话！\"</p><p>@科技圈小雨：</p><p>\"从性能到系统体验都有这么大提升，看来华为这次是真的憋了个大招。\"</p><p><img src=\"https://x0.ifengimg.com/res/2024/9714751ADEBF8969C7829475869D8C9638F60408_size19_w640_h332.jpg\"/></p><p>@手机发烧友大毛：</p><p>\"别的不说，就冲这次四大协会集体怼美国芯片这事，就值得点赞！\"</p><p>@科技评测人小黄：</p><p>\"能把GPU性能提升26.7%，还能追平老款能效，这技术实力没谁了。\"</p><p>从麒麟9020的惊艳表现，到中国芯片产业的整体突破，再到四大协会的集体表态，这一系列事件勾勒出了一幅令人振奋的画面。在重重压力之下，中国芯片产业不仅没有倒下，反而在自主创新的道路上迈出了更大的步伐。这或许就是压力之下的重生，让我们看到了中国科技力量的蓬勃生机。</p><p>各位看官你怎么看的？欢迎大家评论区留言讨论。</p><p>#智启新篇计划#</p></body></html>","source":"fenghuang_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>B站集体测华为手机的麒麟9020芯片！性能提升超30%</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4510":"在线教育","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4563":"昨日强势股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","SG9999003461.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Infrastructure SGD","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","BK4513":"直播概念","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1104":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","SG9999001051.SGD":"United Asia Fund SGD","SG9999006597.SGD":"United China-India Dynamic Growth SGD","BK4588":"碎股","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1587":"次新股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","SG9999001093.SGD":"United Greater China Fund A Acc SGD","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8f8nlsqlnYU","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2489783637","content_text":"B站最近可热闹了！一大群测评博主同时放出了华为新机Mate 70系列的芯片视频。这次的主角是麒麟9020芯片，性能提升让人眼前一亮。这颗被称为\"纯血\"华为芯片的表现到底有多猛？在美国制裁的重压下，中国芯片产业又交出了怎样的成绩单？让我们一起来扒一扒这个热门话题。【事件经过】2024年12月6日这天，B站上突然热闹非凡。好几个知名数码博主不约而同地发布了华为Mate 70系列的测评视频，重点都对准了那颗神秘的麒麟9020芯片。这些测评博主们可不是光说不练，他们真刀真枪地拆解了华为Mate 70 Pro+和其他高端机型，把这颗备受关注的芯片剖析了个遍。说到这个麒麟9020，可真是让人大开眼界。极客湾的显示，这颗芯片在CPU方面可是玩了把大的 - 完全甩掉了ARM的公版设计，搞了个自己的小核心。这么一搞，浮点性能比上一代提升了将近一半，直接把性能拉到了接近2GHz的A510水平。拆机的时候，测评博主们可算是把这颗芯片的老底都扒出来了。一个超级大核心，跑到2.5GHz；三个中等核心，频率2.15GHz；再加上四个1.6GHz的小核心。GPU换成了Maleoon 920，芯片整体比上一代大了不少，又宽又厚。性能更是亮眼，安兔兔跑分直接飙到125万分左右，比上一代提升超过30%。先看评测的博主玩了把游戏，发现帧率稳得跟尺子画的直线似的，30分钟下来平均帧率稳在59.8，这下可算是让华为重新夺回了\"性能霸主\"的称号。往前倒推到11月26日，华为在Mate品牌盛典上正式发布了这批新机。四个版本价格跨度不小，从5499到11999元不等。余承东在会上可是说得信心满满，声称新机整体性能比去年提升了40%。他还放了个大招 - 从2025年开始，华为的手机和平板都要用上\"纯血\"鸿蒙系统。12月4日，这批新机终于开售了。华为终端BG的何刚放话说，这些产品用的每一颗芯片都能实现国产化，这话一出，整个市场都沸腾了。但是好事多磨，就在12月2日，美国商务部又出手了，一口气把140家公司放进了黑名单，其中136家都是中国企业。这次主要针对的是半导体设备供应商、软件公司和材料商，北方华创、华大九天、凯世通半导体等大企业都榜上有名。不过有意思的是，美国这波制裁似乎并没有达到预期效果。央视的数据显示，今年前10个月，中国的半导体出口已经达到9311.7亿元，增长率超过21%。按这个势头，到11月就能突破1万亿元大关。更有意思的是，12月3日，中国四大行业协会集体发声，给美国芯片贴上了\"不安全、不可靠\"的标签，建议国内企业谨慎采购美国芯片。中国商务部也在12月5日表态，说要采取必要措施来维护自身权益。这一系列事件展现了中国芯片产业在压力下的进步。从华为新机的表现来看，国产芯片正在逐步突破技术瓶颈，而且在整体产业规模上也取得了可观的成绩。这场技术角力还在继续，但国产芯片已经显示出了强劲的发展势头。这波科技圈的大瓜还远没完。有意思的是，不少数码博主在过程中发现，麒麟9020在GPU性能上也是实打实的硬货。跟搭载麒麟9010的华为Pura 70 Ultra一比，性能提升了26.7%，能效方面更是追平了老前辈麒麟9000。这下可把不少果粉都看傻眼了。值得一提的是，华为这次在AI方面也是下足了功夫。新机不光是硬件强悍，配上了原生鸿蒙系统后，整体体验更是上了一个台阶。日常使用的流畅度、游戏性能的稳定性都有明显提升，这让不少原本对国产手机持观望态度的用户都坐不住了。而在美国不断加码制裁的背景下，中国芯片产业却展现出了惊人的韧性。每个月930亿元左右的出口额，这个数字足以让任何质疑者闭嘴。五年来的制裁不仅没有打垮中国的芯片产业，反而让它变得更加坚韧。【网友热评】@科技迷小陈：\"华为这波真的牛批！被制裁这么久还能整出这么猛的芯片，服气！\"@数码发烧友老王：\"麒麟9020这性能提升也太离谱了，看来这几年华为是真憋了一把劲啊。\"@手机控阿明：\"游戏帧率能稳定在59.8，这已经不是进步而是质的飞跃了好吧！\"@科技观察者小林：\"美国制裁没把我们打趴下，反而逼出了更强的国产科技，这波属于是搬起石头砸自己的脚啊。\"@数码达人老张：\"芯片出口破万亿，这就是最好的回应，实力说话！\"@科技圈小雨：\"从性能到系统体验都有这么大提升，看来华为这次是真的憋了个大招。\"@手机发烧友大毛：\"别的不说，就冲这次四大协会集体怼美国芯片这事，就值得点赞！\"@科技评测人小黄：\"能把GPU性能提升26.7%，还能追平老款能效，这技术实力没谁了。\"从麒麟9020的惊艳表现，到中国芯片产业的整体突破，再到四大协会的集体表态，这一系列事件勾勒出了一幅令人振奋的画面。在重重压力之下，中国芯片产业不仅没有倒下，反而在自主创新的道路上迈出了更大的步伐。这或许就是压力之下的重生，让我们看到了中国科技力量的蓬勃生机。各位看官你怎么看的？欢迎大家评论区留言讨论。#智启新篇计划#","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359002841456680,"gmtCreate":1728655091891,"gmtModify":1728655092678,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359002841456680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":309311020966176,"gmtCreate":1716542981927,"gmtModify":1716542983668,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"B S马斯克","listText":"B S马斯克","text":"B S马斯克","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309311020966176","repostId":"1188859122","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188859122","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1716521883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188859122?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-24 11:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"事关美对华电动汽车加征关税，马斯克表态","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188859122","media":"环球网","summary":"在23日举办的活动上，马斯克表示，他不赞成扭曲市场的措施。当地时间5月14日，美国白宫宣布对中国$太阳能$电池、电动汽车、计算机芯片和医疗产品等一系列商品加征关税。中国商务部发言人对此表示，美方出于国内政治考虑，滥用301关税复审程序，进一步提高部分对华产品加征的301关税，将经贸问题政治化、工具化，是典型的政治操弄，中方对此表示强烈不满。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据路透社报道，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>公司首席执行官（CEO）埃隆·马斯克当地时间23日通过视频连线参加了在法国巴黎举办的“欧洲科技创新展览会”，<strong>他在活动中对科技投资者表示，他反对美国对中国电动汽车征收关税。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">路透社提到，本月，拜登政府对包括电动汽车在内的一系列中国进口商品征收新关税，其中对中国进口电动汽车征收的关税从25%提高到100%。在23日举办的活动上，马斯克表示，他不赞成扭曲市场的措施。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be924d5fe968e1850b69c6d24f7f77ea\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"531\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克23日通过视频连线参加“欧洲科技创新展览会”图自“欧洲科技创新展览会”社交平台账号视频截图</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“特斯拉公司和我都没有要求征收这些关税，<strong>事实上，当他们宣布时，我感到惊讶。”</strong>马斯克通过视频连线表示，<strong>“限制交易自由或扭曲市场的事情都是不好的。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他还称，在没有关税等因素的情况下，<strong>“特斯拉在中国市场的竞争力相当强”，“我支持不征收关税”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">路透社还提到，这与他今年1月的警告截然不同。他在今年年初财报发布后的分析师电话会议上称，需要对华设置贸易壁垒，否则“世界上大多数其他车企”将被摧毁。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间5月14日，美国白宫宣布对中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>电池、电动汽车、计算机芯片和医疗产品等一系列商品加征关税。中国商务部发言人对此表示，美方出于国内政治考虑，滥用301关税复审程序，进一步提高部分对华产品加征的301关税，将经贸问题政治化、工具化，是典型的政治操弄，中方对此表示强烈不满。世贸组织早已裁决301关税违反世贸组织规则。美方非但不予以纠正，反而一意孤行，一错再错。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中国外交部发言人汪文斌也表示，美方继续将经贸问题政治化，进一步增加对华关税，是错上加错，只会显著推升进口商品成本，让美国企业和消费者承担更多的损失，令美国消费者付出更大的代价。据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>公司推算，美国消费者承担了加征对华关税92%的成本，美国家庭每年增加开支1300美元，美方的保护主义举措也将对全球产供链的安全稳定造成更大破坏。我们注意到，有多位欧洲的政要表示，加征关税是破坏全球贸易的下策，我们敦促美方切实遵守世贸组织的规则，立即取消对华加征关税措施，中方将采取一切必要措施捍卫自身权益。</p></body></html>","source":"hqw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>事关美对华电动汽车加征关税，马斯克表态</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n事关美对华电动汽车加征关税，马斯克表态\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-24 11:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P_FkAJZLM4DVDUA3xUK5Xg><strong>环球网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据路透社报道，美国特斯拉公司首席执行官（CEO）埃隆·马斯克当地时间23日通过视频连线参加了在法国巴黎举办的“欧洲科技创新展览会”，他在活动中对科技投资者表示，他反对美国对中国电动汽车征收关税。路透社提到，本月，拜登政府对包括电动汽车在内的一系列中国进口商品征收新关税，其中对中国进口电动汽车征收的关税从25%提高到100%。在23日举办的活动上，马斯克表示，他不赞成扭曲市场的措施。马斯克23日通过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P_FkAJZLM4DVDUA3xUK5Xg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3988a75d33e2b4f95370655c056098","relate_stocks":{"LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","02015":"理想汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4099":"汽车制造商","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/P_FkAJZLM4DVDUA3xUK5Xg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188859122","content_text":"据路透社报道，美国特斯拉公司首席执行官（CEO）埃隆·马斯克当地时间23日通过视频连线参加了在法国巴黎举办的“欧洲科技创新展览会”，他在活动中对科技投资者表示，他反对美国对中国电动汽车征收关税。路透社提到，本月，拜登政府对包括电动汽车在内的一系列中国进口商品征收新关税，其中对中国进口电动汽车征收的关税从25%提高到100%。在23日举办的活动上，马斯克表示，他不赞成扭曲市场的措施。马斯克23日通过视频连线参加“欧洲科技创新展览会”图自“欧洲科技创新展览会”社交平台账号视频截图“特斯拉公司和我都没有要求征收这些关税，事实上，当他们宣布时，我感到惊讶。”马斯克通过视频连线表示，“限制交易自由或扭曲市场的事情都是不好的。”他还称，在没有关税等因素的情况下，“特斯拉在中国市场的竞争力相当强”，“我支持不征收关税”。路透社还提到，这与他今年1月的警告截然不同。他在今年年初财报发布后的分析师电话会议上称，需要对华设置贸易壁垒，否则“世界上大多数其他车企”将被摧毁。当地时间5月14日，美国白宫宣布对中国太阳能电池、电动汽车、计算机芯片和医疗产品等一系列商品加征关税。中国商务部发言人对此表示，美方出于国内政治考虑，滥用301关税复审程序，进一步提高部分对华产品加征的301关税，将经贸问题政治化、工具化，是典型的政治操弄，中方对此表示强烈不满。世贸组织早已裁决301关税违反世贸组织规则。美方非但不予以纠正，反而一意孤行，一错再错。中国外交部发言人汪文斌也表示，美方继续将经贸问题政治化，进一步增加对华关税，是错上加错，只会显著推升进口商品成本，让美国企业和消费者承担更多的损失，令美国消费者付出更大的代价。据穆迪公司推算，美国消费者承担了加征对华关税92%的成本，美国家庭每年增加开支1300美元，美方的保护主义举措也将对全球产供链的安全稳定造成更大破坏。我们注意到，有多位欧洲的政要表示，加征关税是破坏全球贸易的下策，我们敦促美方切实遵守世贸组织的规则，立即取消对华加征关税措施，中方将采取一切必要措施捍卫自身权益。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":299090429968552,"gmtCreate":1714045384312,"gmtModify":1714050150921,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"骗骗自己，会到10000[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"骗骗自己，会到10000[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"骗骗自己，会到10000[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/299090429968552","repostId":"1199291457","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1199291457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1714036393,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199291457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-25 17:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一次财报的miss并不改变趋势，Meta很可能主导下个十年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199291457","media":"走马财经","summary":"下一个十年的核心将从内容分发转向内容生产，Meta很可能会是这一阶段的主导者。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五，Meta开盘暴跌近15%。财报发布前，本来对Meta这份财报充满期待，纳指这轮8%左右调整期间，我在496和490两次加仓，当时已经是我的美股第一次仓位，又在财报发布前一天489加仓，没想到财报不及预期 ……</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/957c94bc88566b3274fe00ed0683aab1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报发布前，华尔街分析师给的预期是：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度营收预期361.6亿刀，每股净利润预期4.32刀，二季度营收预期382.2亿刀</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而我个人给的预期是：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度营收预期375亿刀，每股净利润预期4.45刀，二季度预期380-410亿刀之间</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">结果，财报显示，Meta一季度营收364.6亿刀，每股净利润4.71刀，二季度预期365-390亿刀区间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">营收超过了华尔街分析师预期，但没超过管理层在去年Q4财报时给的预估上限370亿刀，也远低于我个人给的预期375亿刀；每股净利润超过了华尔街分析师和我个人的预测。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但是公司表示2024年内将提高资本支出，从300-370亿刀提升到350-400亿刀，这将削弱每股净利润超预期带来的利好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">由于市场对Meta的财报高期待，所以它需要至少超出业绩指引370亿刀上限，才可能满足市场预期，而二季度的业绩指引无疑也是令人失望的，这一指引的中值是377.5亿刀，低于华尔街分析师预期的388.2亿刀，更远低于我个人给的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果Meta的表现达到我给的预测范围，或者非常接近，我相信市场反应会是完全不同的，真是一份令人心碎的财报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">二季度预期365-390亿刀，假设达到指引的上限390亿，环比也不过7%，2023年Q2的环比是11.7%，2021年Q2的环比是11.1%，2022年Q2环比增长3.3%，彼时的市场反应我们也见识过了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而如果二季度只达到指引的中值，意味着二季度环比增长只有3.5%，这将令华尔街颤抖，恐惧得颤抖，我们最好祈祷Meta二季度营收大幅超预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">继续看第一张图，利润率38%，虽然看绝对值还不错，但是结束了连续5个季度利润率环比提升的势头，也是隐忧之一；元宇宙利润继续拉胯，不知道何时能有盼头，隐忧之二。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三费开支（营销+研发+行政）160亿刀，环比仅下降0.35亿，营收环比下降了36.5亿，具体来看，研发和营销支出合计环比减少12亿刀，但行政开支环比增加了11.7亿刀，估计是一季度有额外的股权激励开支，但同比来看，行政开支也增加了约6亿刀，很可能是因为股价大幅上涨带来的股权激励成本显著上升，研发同比增加6亿而营销支出同比减少了5亿，总体来说三费开支虽然没有惊喜但算合理。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">季度自由现金流来到125亿，过去12个月达到486亿，如果以当前股价计算估值大约1.05万亿美元，对应21.6倍DCF估值，如果剔除烧钱大户元宇宙项目过去12个月大约160亿刀的亏损，核心广告平台的DCF估值大约是16.25倍，个人觉得是偏低估的状态。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下面看看具体的业绩表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92e146881643f0367caffbcd694b4ac0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"371\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">季度营收增速27.3%，创造过去10个季度增速最高值，大部分源于低基数，但也说明势头还行，364.6亿刀的营收，只能说中规中矩，市场期待值太高了，包括我个人也是预期太高，亏了只能认输苟住。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">至于二季度预期，我觉得365-390亿确实偏低了点，如果无法达到预估上限，那我会很失望。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fa6b753771df936ccc9c9adac629cee\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"380\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从Meta历年的运营数据来看，2023年的用户数据有回春迹象，一季度只给了家族日活数据，日活达到创历史记录的32.4亿，环比增长0.5亿，同比增长2.2亿，增速7%，还是相当不错的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf7a49d95cab691cea7086ae231ab177\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"445\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">平台整体的广告点击量增长了20%，与四季度增速基本持平，广告单次点击价格增速则连续5个季度环比提升，从低谷的-22%提升到了本季度的6%，这可能说明：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1.经济反弹带来的广告需求增长稳健 2.Instagram reels带来的视频化转型是成功的，不仅能带来广告库存增加，而且单价也开始提升</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39e0a05ce6669167fbe788af2c709d1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meta的净利润已经纳入了股权激励部分，所以是很有参考价值的，通常一季度是利润淡季，以2021年为例，2021年Q1主营业务广告分部的利润是132.1亿，占全年广告分部利润的23.2%，若以此推论，2024年Meta广告业务利润可能达到761.2亿，按照当前1.05万亿估值计算广告分部的PE大约13.8倍，我个人觉得是低估的状态。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a003c7604c781015aab2066b23d2874d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下面说说，我为什么看好Meta：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1.Meta已经基本克服了苹果和安卓隐私新政对平台广告业务带来的负面影响</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2.Meta家族APP基本克服了Tik Tok带来的恐惧，三个角度可以证明这一点：一是Meta家族APP日活、月活增速开始恢复；二是Instagram的下载量在2023年超越Tik Tok重回榜首，这是2019年后的第一次，数据来源于Sensor Tower；三是广告单价开始正增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">3.Meta的视频化转型基本上成功了，而抖音带给我们的启示是，视频化平台的广告加载率、点击率和单价都会高于图文，Meta会长期受益，而Tik Tok的无常命运，只是增加了一点buff。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4.Meta在人工智能的投资让它处于有利位置。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于上述原因，我觉得Meta的复苏势头会延续，而且它的自由现金流没有减缓的迹象，随着大模型技术演进，多模态生成式人工智能落地，Meta的40亿全球用户，有机会以极低门槛创作高质量视频，这些功能将深度集成到Meta家族的旗舰APP，比如IG、FB、Messenger和WhatsApp等，用户只需要通过语音输入一段指令，就能生产极富想象力的视频内容，这将大大降低视频内容的制作门槛，扩大创作者群体范围，进而大幅提升内容消费的空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/715fc052415f88dc2f1c5a80d9f2007e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去5年，AI其实一直在深刻影响内容消费领域，主导者是字节跳动旗下的抖音和Tik Tok，它们主要发生在内容分发领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2021年以来，Meta投资了上百亿美金采购英伟达的H100芯片，它的初始目的原本是提升Instagram reels的内容推荐算法，追赶Tik Tok的步伐，没想到越买越多，不仅在内容推荐算法上补足了短板，而且无心插柳地做成了生成式人工智能领域的基础设施，Meta的目标是2024年底达到35万枚H100的部署能力，Llama3已经发布且将集成到家族APP的对话框顶部。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我倾向于相信，AI将继续影响内容消费领域，下一个十年的核心将从内容分发转向内容生产，Meta很可能会是这一阶段的主导者。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">它具备三大核心优势：</p><blockquote><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高达40亿的全球高频活跃用户，首屈一指且遥遥领先 2.全球前三的GPU储备量，可能仅次于微软 3.Llama很可能会取代Google成为生成式人工智能领域的最主流开放平台</p></li></ol></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google有类似的用户基础，但搜索不及社交高频，后者的对话输入框天然适合语音指令输入并生成内容，离消费者更近。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软同样缺乏Meta这样得天独厚的用户基础和内容消费场景。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">字节跳动可能是最具挑战性的，但它的GPU储备远远不及Meta，且用户规模和粘性仍不及Meta强劲。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">腾讯与Meta情况最接近，但是GPU储备、技术储备、数据清洁程度都有所不及。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以总体来看，我对Meta的未来还是比较看好的，一次财报的miss并不改变大的趋势。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1613725107179","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一次财报的miss并不改变趋势，Meta很可能主导下个十年</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一次财报的miss并不改变趋势，Meta很可能主导下个十年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-25 17:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwNjYxNDkwMA==&mid=2247491831&idx=1&sn=53920500ba2fa3e577f10c777aa0df80&chksm=971c58eca06bd1fa5ee5f2407f53e265e352b39be94078aaaac9cc1768ebb91d36229b78bb01&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0425mzKSw47UUuDjsJpJZZlZ&sharer_shareinfo=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba&sharer_shareinfo_first=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba#rd><strong>走马财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周五，Meta开盘暴跌近15%。财报发布前，本来对Meta这份财报充满期待，纳指这轮8%左右调整期间，我在496和490两次加仓，当时已经是我的美股第一次仓位，又在财报发布前一天489加仓，没想到财报不及预期 ……财报发布前，华尔街分析师给的预期是：一季度营收预期361.6亿刀，每股净利润预期4.32刀，二季度营收预期382.2亿刀而我个人给的预期是：一季度营收预期375亿刀，每股净利润预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwNjYxNDkwMA==&mid=2247491831&idx=1&sn=53920500ba2fa3e577f10c777aa0df80&chksm=971c58eca06bd1fa5ee5f2407f53e265e352b39be94078aaaac9cc1768ebb91d36229b78bb01&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0425mzKSw47UUuDjsJpJZZlZ&sharer_shareinfo=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba&sharer_shareinfo_first=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5546e6a1e61039ce5b4b53b5027c513d","relate_stocks":{"META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzIwNjYxNDkwMA==&mid=2247491831&idx=1&sn=53920500ba2fa3e577f10c777aa0df80&chksm=971c58eca06bd1fa5ee5f2407f53e265e352b39be94078aaaac9cc1768ebb91d36229b78bb01&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0425mzKSw47UUuDjsJpJZZlZ&sharer_shareinfo=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba&sharer_shareinfo_first=aa882aee0e22608736b1e4e6f68e26ba#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199291457","content_text":"周五，Meta开盘暴跌近15%。财报发布前，本来对Meta这份财报充满期待，纳指这轮8%左右调整期间，我在496和490两次加仓，当时已经是我的美股第一次仓位，又在财报发布前一天489加仓，没想到财报不及预期 ……财报发布前，华尔街分析师给的预期是：一季度营收预期361.6亿刀，每股净利润预期4.32刀，二季度营收预期382.2亿刀而我个人给的预期是：一季度营收预期375亿刀，每股净利润预期4.45刀，二季度预期380-410亿刀之间结果，财报显示，Meta一季度营收364.6亿刀，每股净利润4.71刀，二季度预期365-390亿刀区间。营收超过了华尔街分析师预期，但没超过管理层在去年Q4财报时给的预估上限370亿刀，也远低于我个人给的预期375亿刀；每股净利润超过了华尔街分析师和我个人的预测。但是公司表示2024年内将提高资本支出，从300-370亿刀提升到350-400亿刀，这将削弱每股净利润超预期带来的利好。由于市场对Meta的财报高期待，所以它需要至少超出业绩指引370亿刀上限，才可能满足市场预期，而二季度的业绩指引无疑也是令人失望的，这一指引的中值是377.5亿刀，低于华尔街分析师预期的388.2亿刀，更远低于我个人给的预期。如果Meta的表现达到我给的预测范围，或者非常接近，我相信市场反应会是完全不同的，真是一份令人心碎的财报。二季度预期365-390亿刀，假设达到指引的上限390亿，环比也不过7%，2023年Q2的环比是11.7%，2021年Q2的环比是11.1%，2022年Q2环比增长3.3%，彼时的市场反应我们也见识过了。而如果二季度只达到指引的中值，意味着二季度环比增长只有3.5%，这将令华尔街颤抖，恐惧得颤抖，我们最好祈祷Meta二季度营收大幅超预期。继续看第一张图，利润率38%，虽然看绝对值还不错，但是结束了连续5个季度利润率环比提升的势头，也是隐忧之一；元宇宙利润继续拉胯，不知道何时能有盼头，隐忧之二。三费开支（营销+研发+行政）160亿刀，环比仅下降0.35亿，营收环比下降了36.5亿，具体来看，研发和营销支出合计环比减少12亿刀，但行政开支环比增加了11.7亿刀，估计是一季度有额外的股权激励开支，但同比来看，行政开支也增加了约6亿刀，很可能是因为股价大幅上涨带来的股权激励成本显著上升，研发同比增加6亿而营销支出同比减少了5亿，总体来说三费开支虽然没有惊喜但算合理。季度自由现金流来到125亿，过去12个月达到486亿，如果以当前股价计算估值大约1.05万亿美元，对应21.6倍DCF估值，如果剔除烧钱大户元宇宙项目过去12个月大约160亿刀的亏损，核心广告平台的DCF估值大约是16.25倍，个人觉得是偏低估的状态。下面看看具体的业绩表现。季度营收增速27.3%，创造过去10个季度增速最高值，大部分源于低基数，但也说明势头还行，364.6亿刀的营收，只能说中规中矩，市场期待值太高了，包括我个人也是预期太高，亏了只能认输苟住。至于二季度预期，我觉得365-390亿确实偏低了点，如果无法达到预估上限，那我会很失望。从Meta历年的运营数据来看，2023年的用户数据有回春迹象，一季度只给了家族日活数据，日活达到创历史记录的32.4亿，环比增长0.5亿，同比增长2.2亿，增速7%，还是相当不错的。平台整体的广告点击量增长了20%，与四季度增速基本持平，广告单次点击价格增速则连续5个季度环比提升，从低谷的-22%提升到了本季度的6%，这可能说明：1.经济反弹带来的广告需求增长稳健 2.Instagram reels带来的视频化转型是成功的，不仅能带来广告库存增加，而且单价也开始提升Meta的净利润已经纳入了股权激励部分，所以是很有参考价值的，通常一季度是利润淡季，以2021年为例，2021年Q1主营业务广告分部的利润是132.1亿，占全年广告分部利润的23.2%，若以此推论，2024年Meta广告业务利润可能达到761.2亿，按照当前1.05万亿估值计算广告分部的PE大约13.8倍，我个人觉得是低估的状态。下面说说，我为什么看好Meta：1.Meta已经基本克服了苹果和安卓隐私新政对平台广告业务带来的负面影响2.Meta家族APP基本克服了Tik Tok带来的恐惧，三个角度可以证明这一点：一是Meta家族APP日活、月活增速开始恢复；二是Instagram的下载量在2023年超越Tik Tok重回榜首，这是2019年后的第一次，数据来源于Sensor Tower；三是广告单价开始正增长。3.Meta的视频化转型基本上成功了，而抖音带给我们的启示是，视频化平台的广告加载率、点击率和单价都会高于图文，Meta会长期受益，而Tik Tok的无常命运，只是增加了一点buff。4.Meta在人工智能的投资让它处于有利位置。基于上述原因，我觉得Meta的复苏势头会延续，而且它的自由现金流没有减缓的迹象，随着大模型技术演进，多模态生成式人工智能落地，Meta的40亿全球用户，有机会以极低门槛创作高质量视频，这些功能将深度集成到Meta家族的旗舰APP，比如IG、FB、Messenger和WhatsApp等，用户只需要通过语音输入一段指令，就能生产极富想象力的视频内容，这将大大降低视频内容的制作门槛，扩大创作者群体范围，进而大幅提升内容消费的空间。过去5年，AI其实一直在深刻影响内容消费领域，主导者是字节跳动旗下的抖音和Tik Tok，它们主要发生在内容分发领域。2021年以来，Meta投资了上百亿美金采购英伟达的H100芯片，它的初始目的原本是提升Instagram reels的内容推荐算法，追赶Tik Tok的步伐，没想到越买越多，不仅在内容推荐算法上补足了短板，而且无心插柳地做成了生成式人工智能领域的基础设施，Meta的目标是2024年底达到35万枚H100的部署能力，Llama3已经发布且将集成到家族APP的对话框顶部。我倾向于相信，AI将继续影响内容消费领域，下一个十年的核心将从内容分发转向内容生产，Meta很可能会是这一阶段的主导者。它具备三大核心优势：高达40亿的全球高频活跃用户，首屈一指且遥遥领先 2.全球前三的GPU储备量，可能仅次于微软 3.Llama很可能会取代Google成为生成式人工智能领域的最主流开放平台Google有类似的用户基础，但搜索不及社交高频，后者的对话输入框天然适合语音指令输入并生成内容，离消费者更近。微软同样缺乏Meta这样得天独厚的用户基础和内容消费场景。字节跳动可能是最具挑战性的，但它的GPU储备远远不及Meta，且用户规模和粘性仍不及Meta强劲。腾讯与Meta情况最接近，但是GPU储备、技术储备、数据清洁程度都有所不及。所以总体来看，我对Meta的未来还是比较看好的，一次财报的miss并不改变大的趋势。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297894688604400,"gmtCreate":1713756930841,"gmtModify":1713756932188,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; 股价这个样子，回购40亿。又发了25亿期权？程一笑你拿股东当猴耍呢？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp; 股价这个样子，回购40亿。又发了25亿期权？程一笑你拿股东当猴耍呢？","text":"$快手-W(01024)$ 股价这个样子，回购40亿。又发了25亿期权？程一笑你拿股东当猴耍呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297894688604400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"content":"宿华去年69拿去转融通，至今跌到40左右？好好做个人呢吧","text":"宿华去年69拿去转融通，至今跌到40左右？好好做个人呢吧","html":"宿华去年69拿去转融通，至今跌到40左右？好好做个人呢吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296250730103072,"gmtCreate":1713364468531,"gmtModify":1713364949409,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"臭不要脸的垃圾，还什么钢铁侠。我早就看透他","listText":"臭不要脸的垃圾，还什么钢铁侠。我早就看透他","text":"臭不要脸的垃圾，还什么钢铁侠。我早就看透他","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296250730103072","repostId":"2428311262","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296250601681112,"gmtCreate":1713364434699,"gmtModify":1713364948302,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"臭不要脸","listText":"臭不要脸","text":"臭不要脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296250601681112","repostId":"1162483439","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162483439","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1713350580,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162483439?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-17 18:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Asks Investors to Approve Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162483439","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Tesla Inc. will have shareholders vote again on its massive compensation package for Elon Musk after a Delaware court voided a $56 billion award arranged for the chief executive officer in 2018.In its proxy filing issued Wednesday, Tesla also said it will call a vote on moving the company’s state of incorporation to Texas, from Delaware. The electric-car maker will hold its annual meeting on June 13.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Company also calls vote on moving incorporation to Texas</p></li><li><p>Tesla chair criticizes Delaware court that voided CEO’s award</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5299b8b19f42512e141b02f56b108a3\" alt=\"Elon Musk\" title=\"Elon Musk\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"/><span>Elon Musk</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tesla Inc. will have shareholders vote again on its compensation package for Elon Musk after a Delaware court voided the $56 billion award arranged for the chief executive officer in 2018.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In its proxy filing issued Wednesday, Tesla also said it will call a vote on moving the company’s state of incorporation to Texas from Delaware. The electric-car maker will convene its annual meeting on June 13.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm criticized the Delaware Chancery Court’s January decision, writing in the proxy that it amounted to second-guessing shareholders who had approved Musk’s compensation. Chief Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick described the company’s directors as “supine servants of an overweening master” and said they hadn’t looked out for the best interests of investors.</p><p>“Because the Delaware Court second-guessed your decision, Elon has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla for the past six years that has helped to generate significant growth and stockholder value,” Denholm wrote.</p><p>The shareholder who sued Tesla over the CEO’s compensation criticized it as excessive and opaque. Musk, who runs six companies, said early this year he preferred to work on artificial intelligence and robotics products elsewhere unless he owns a 25% stake in Tesla. He now owns about 13% of the company.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tesla shares rose 1.1% as of 7 a.m. New York time, before the start of regular trading. The stock tumbled 37% this year through Tuesday’s close.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Asks Investors to Approve Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Asks Investors to Approve Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-17 18:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/tesla-asks-shareholders-to-re-ratify-musk-s-56-billion-payout><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Company also calls vote on moving incorporation to TexasTesla chair criticizes Delaware court that voided CEO’s awardElon MuskTesla Inc. will have shareholders vote again on its compensation package ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/tesla-asks-shareholders-to-re-ratify-musk-s-56-billion-payout\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/tesla-asks-shareholders-to-re-ratify-musk-s-56-billion-payout","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162483439","content_text":"Company also calls vote on moving incorporation to TexasTesla chair criticizes Delaware court that voided CEO’s awardElon MuskTesla Inc. will have shareholders vote again on its compensation package for Elon Musk after a Delaware court voided the $56 billion award arranged for the chief executive officer in 2018.In its proxy filing issued Wednesday, Tesla also said it will call a vote on moving the company’s state of incorporation to Texas from Delaware. The electric-car maker will convene its annual meeting on June 13.Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm criticized the Delaware Chancery Court’s January decision, writing in the proxy that it amounted to second-guessing shareholders who had approved Musk’s compensation. Chief Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick described the company’s directors as “supine servants of an overweening master” and said they hadn’t looked out for the best interests of investors.“Because the Delaware Court second-guessed your decision, Elon has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla for the past six years that has helped to generate significant growth and stockholder value,” Denholm wrote.The shareholder who sued Tesla over the CEO’s compensation criticized it as excessive and opaque. Musk, who runs six companies, said early this year he preferred to work on artificial intelligence and robotics products elsewhere unless he owns a 25% stake in Tesla. He now owns about 13% of the company.Tesla shares rose 1.1% as of 7 a.m. New York time, before the start of regular trading. The stock tumbled 37% this year through Tuesday’s close.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":285414496813352,"gmtCreate":1710686982293,"gmtModify":1710686984231,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华为？？？？哈哈哈哈，一年后死都不知","listText":"华为？？？？哈哈哈哈，一年后死都不知","text":"华为？？？？哈哈哈哈，一年后死都不知","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285414496813352","repostId":"2419604881","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2419604881","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1710546145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2419604881?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-16 07:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"管中窥豹！华为登顶第一，小米跌出前五，国产手机何去何从？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2419604881","media":"叽歪数码VVV","summary":"有博主晒出了3月4日-3月10日的国内智能手机销量数据。华为登顶，其余国产手机在后面排队。小米跌出前五，这个预期呢，我觉得是可以接受的。那么，最终就会产生一个非常残酷的现实，除了华为之外的国产手机厂商，必须想办法实现国内国外双线扩展的战略。那些主要依赖国内市场的品牌，如果遭受华为的冲击太大，自己又没有实力去发展海外市场，那么这个冲击的力度甚至比跌出国内前五还要严重。","content":"<html><body><p>有博主晒出了3月4日-3月10日的国内智能手机销量数据。虽然只是一周的数据，却可以实现管中窥豹的效果。我个人觉得，这数据实际非常符合今年的整体走向。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>华为登顶，其余国产手机在后面排队。但我更想强调一个事实，那就是前6名之间的差距是越来越小了，而且我相信呢，接下来除了华为之外，其他几家的差距也不会再次扩大。当厂商之间的竞争变得势均力敌，那么竞争就会更加激烈。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>蓝厂开始反击。蓝厂呢，去年的整体表现并不太好，但是在国内还是稳定在前三。今年开始蓝厂整体来说是有反弹的。蓝厂目前最大的问题在于海外市场表现相较于小米OPPO来说更疲软，相对比之下，vivo在东南亚市场的表现不算太好，在拉美、印度以及中东市场更需要持续投入。</p><p>黑厂目前就是需要破解高端，国内市场表现其实也还可以，海外市场实际也在复苏了，尤其是在解决了跟<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>的专利问题之后，oppo可以迅速恢复它在欧洲市场的销售，在欧洲市场实现重新大幅度增长。</p><p>小米跌出前五，这个预期呢，我觉得是可以接受的。因为你看小米的市场份额，实际上是比他之前在前5名里面还多的。虽然这只是一周的数据，但是我也愿意相信，接下来一年里面小米可能真的会跌出第五（当然肯定也不排除有其他家跌的更惨，不排除其他品牌跌出第五）。还有人说，这里面小米没有把红米跟小米分开，这个没分开我也没办法，但是如果你去看数据会发现，小米绝对是除了华为之外，高端做的最好的国产品牌了。因此，小米真正要守住的是来自于中低端的市场，红米需要面临真我、一加等品牌的竞争。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>最后，想再次提醒大家2个事实。第一，华为目前回归，但是依旧是比较缺乏中低端，为什么说是比较缺乏呢？因为华为目前还没有在低端上用它的麒麟芯片，像中端机型的华为nova系列的价格还是比较贵，一旦解决了这两个问题，那么华为会更猛，会拉开跟友商的差距，因为中低端市场才是整个智能手机的基本盘，它能够占据整个智能手机市场70%左右的市场，尤其是对于线下市场来说，更需要这些中低端机型来走量。</p><p>第二，从此前我们所梳理的海外智能手机市场的整体表现来看，传音目前已经具备了跟其他手机品牌争夺世界前五甚至前四的实力。传音不仅在非洲市场有着出色的表现，占据半壁江山，更加重要的是他在东南亚、拉美、中东等市场迅速崛起，尤其是东南亚这个市场，一直被认为是其他国产手机品牌的海外市场大本营，传音的表现非常迅猛，已经达到了第二的水平。传音目前所需要解决的是在欧洲市场以及印度市场上没有太大作为的问题，如果能够在这个两个市场有所建树，那么传音将会直接对其他国产品牌造成较大威胁。</p><p>也就是说，国产手机厂商们不仅需要面临着国内市场来自华为的竞争压力，要面临着来自友商之间势均力敌的竞争，即便是在海外市场，也需要面临着像传音这种迅猛突起的黑马。</p><p>那么，最终就会产生一个非常残酷的现实，除了华为之外的国产手机厂商，必须想办法实现国内国外双线扩展的战略。那些主要依赖国内市场的品牌，如果遭受华为的冲击太大，自己又没有实力去发展海外市场，那么这个冲击的力度甚至比跌出国内前五还要严重。而那些主要依赖海外市场的品牌，传音实际上才是他们的最大威胁，即便在国内市场需要面临来自华为的冲击，但是这是一种除了华为之外，其他手机厂商都必须遭受的压力，你可以看到其他手机厂商目前的差距已经是越来越小了，换句话说，这是一种平等的普降，当华为迅速崛起的时候，其他手机品牌势必会下降，只是看你如何防御将损失尽量降低。</p><p>例如在华为之外的手机厂商，此前某家市场份额曾达到20%左右，但如今肯定是再也回不到这一数据了，接下来也只能是持续下滑，在几乎没有海外市场的现阶段，如果被华为重新拿回部分市场份额，那对于自己是更毁灭性的打击，甚至比掉出国内前五更加严重。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>一句话：要么你觉得自己能够在国内市场守住来自华为的冲击，要么你必须到海外市场找到一片<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301277\">新天地</a>，如果这两样你做不到其中的一样，那留给友商的时间就不多了。</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>管中窥豹！华为登顶第一，小米跌出前五，国产手机何去何从？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n管中窥豹！华为登顶第一，小米跌出前五，国产手机何去何从？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-16 07:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8XzWDGF5ln5><strong>叽歪数码VVV</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>有博主晒出了3月4日-3月10日的国内智能手机销量数据。虽然只是一周的数据，却可以实现管中窥豹的效果。我个人觉得，这数据实际非常符合今年的整体走向。华为登顶，其余国产手机在后面排队。但我更想强调一个事实，那就是前6名之间的差距是越来越小了，而且我相信呢，接下来除了华为之外，其他几家的差距也不会再次扩大。当厂商之间的竞争变得势均力敌，那么竞争就会更加激烈。蓝厂开始反击。蓝厂呢，去年的整体表现并不太好...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8XzWDGF5ln5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1607":"新IT概念","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","01810":"小米集团-W","XIACY":"小米集团ADR","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","BK1193":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1523":"武汉本地概念股","BK1502":"双十一","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1506":"5G概念","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8XzWDGF5ln5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2419604881","content_text":"有博主晒出了3月4日-3月10日的国内智能手机销量数据。虽然只是一周的数据，却可以实现管中窥豹的效果。我个人觉得，这数据实际非常符合今年的整体走向。华为登顶，其余国产手机在后面排队。但我更想强调一个事实，那就是前6名之间的差距是越来越小了，而且我相信呢，接下来除了华为之外，其他几家的差距也不会再次扩大。当厂商之间的竞争变得势均力敌，那么竞争就会更加激烈。蓝厂开始反击。蓝厂呢，去年的整体表现并不太好，但是在国内还是稳定在前三。今年开始蓝厂整体来说是有反弹的。蓝厂目前最大的问题在于海外市场表现相较于小米OPPO来说更疲软，相对比之下，vivo在东南亚市场的表现不算太好，在拉美、印度以及中东市场更需要持续投入。黑厂目前就是需要破解高端，国内市场表现其实也还可以，海外市场实际也在复苏了，尤其是在解决了跟诺基亚的专利问题之后，oppo可以迅速恢复它在欧洲市场的销售，在欧洲市场实现重新大幅度增长。小米跌出前五，这个预期呢，我觉得是可以接受的。因为你看小米的市场份额，实际上是比他之前在前5名里面还多的。虽然这只是一周的数据，但是我也愿意相信，接下来一年里面小米可能真的会跌出第五（当然肯定也不排除有其他家跌的更惨，不排除其他品牌跌出第五）。还有人说，这里面小米没有把红米跟小米分开，这个没分开我也没办法，但是如果你去看数据会发现，小米绝对是除了华为之外，高端做的最好的国产品牌了。因此，小米真正要守住的是来自于中低端的市场，红米需要面临真我、一加等品牌的竞争。最后，想再次提醒大家2个事实。第一，华为目前回归，但是依旧是比较缺乏中低端，为什么说是比较缺乏呢？因为华为目前还没有在低端上用它的麒麟芯片，像中端机型的华为nova系列的价格还是比较贵，一旦解决了这两个问题，那么华为会更猛，会拉开跟友商的差距，因为中低端市场才是整个智能手机的基本盘，它能够占据整个智能手机市场70%左右的市场，尤其是对于线下市场来说，更需要这些中低端机型来走量。第二，从此前我们所梳理的海外智能手机市场的整体表现来看，传音目前已经具备了跟其他手机品牌争夺世界前五甚至前四的实力。传音不仅在非洲市场有着出色的表现，占据半壁江山，更加重要的是他在东南亚、拉美、中东等市场迅速崛起，尤其是东南亚这个市场，一直被认为是其他国产手机品牌的海外市场大本营，传音的表现非常迅猛，已经达到了第二的水平。传音目前所需要解决的是在欧洲市场以及印度市场上没有太大作为的问题，如果能够在这个两个市场有所建树，那么传音将会直接对其他国产品牌造成较大威胁。也就是说，国产手机厂商们不仅需要面临着国内市场来自华为的竞争压力，要面临着来自友商之间势均力敌的竞争，即便是在海外市场，也需要面临着像传音这种迅猛突起的黑马。那么，最终就会产生一个非常残酷的现实，除了华为之外的国产手机厂商，必须想办法实现国内国外双线扩展的战略。那些主要依赖国内市场的品牌，如果遭受华为的冲击太大，自己又没有实力去发展海外市场，那么这个冲击的力度甚至比跌出国内前五还要严重。而那些主要依赖海外市场的品牌，传音实际上才是他们的最大威胁，即便在国内市场需要面临来自华为的冲击，但是这是一种除了华为之外，其他手机厂商都必须遭受的压力，你可以看到其他手机厂商目前的差距已经是越来越小了，换句话说，这是一种平等的普降，当华为迅速崛起的时候，其他手机品牌势必会下降，只是看你如何防御将损失尽量降低。例如在华为之外的手机厂商，此前某家市场份额曾达到20%左右，但如今肯定是再也回不到这一数据了，接下来也只能是持续下滑，在几乎没有海外市场的现阶段，如果被华为重新拿回部分市场份额，那对于自己是更毁灭性的打击，甚至比掉出国内前五更加严重。一句话：要么你觉得自己能够在国内市场守住来自华为的冲击，要么你必须到海外市场找到一片新天地，如果这两样你做不到其中的一样，那留给友商的时间就不多了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":256501011747128,"gmtCreate":1703641543102,"gmtModify":1703641544623,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写这文章大概是**了吧哈哈","listText":"写这文章大概是**了吧哈哈","text":"写这文章大概是**了吧哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256501011747128","repostId":"2394214660","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351168270,"gmtCreate":1616575945890,"gmtModify":1616575945890,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>不到30坚决不出仓！疫苗10月份获批","text":"$美国航空(AAL)$不到30坚决不出仓！疫苗10月份获批","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944547950","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944826277,"gmtCreate":1596827101999,"gmtModify":1704213841777,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作者大更吃饱了吧","listText":"作者大更吃饱了吧","text":"作者大更吃饱了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944826277","repostId":"1170742161","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170742161","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1596808694,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170742161?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-07 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国航空业：我真的飞不动了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170742161","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一打开微博，被热搜吸引了眼球。\n\n资料来源：微博\n美东时间8月6日，美国国务院宣布解除对本国公民的“第四级全球旅行警告”。\n上述这一警告自今年3月19日发出，旨在基于疫情影响，建议美国公民避免一切国际","content":"<p>一打开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>，被热搜吸引了眼球。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f621838ab05793f23fcf7ae6b9abaa5\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"942\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p>美东时间8月6日，<b>美国国务院宣布解除对本国公民的“第四级全球旅行警告”。</b></p>\n<p>上述这一警告自今年3月19日发出，旨在基于疫情影响，建议美国公民避免一切国际旅行。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5ea08c5d86fe2330df620a0220834a9\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"192\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：官网公告</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鉴于一些国家的卫生和安全状况正在改善，而其他国家可能正在恶化”，国务院恢复以前实施的按具体国家和地区给出旅行建议的制度。”——美国国务院\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c87ba67d35490005454dfceda7300ad\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"184\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：推特</p>\n<p>受此消息影响，隔夜美股航空股短线上扬，有所提振。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/762dace0e34f3d048871acdc668a6b84\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"289\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>然而，美国这一“此一时彼一时”的做法让人摸不着头脑，遭到网友诸多吐槽。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a05abab20fec93d6ecf762498e1f9fc\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"990\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p>毕竟，进入下半年，新冠疫情依旧面临严峻挑战，<b>而美国作为疫情发生的“主要震中”继续反复爆发，相关经济表现持续低迷，人们消费信心连连下降，哪有开始说走就走的旅行一说。</b></p>\n<p>在此之下，早已陷入亏损泥潭的航空业也只怕是越陷越深了。</p>\n<p><b>“不受欢迎”的美国人</b></p>\n<p><b>新冠疫情大流行的阴影依旧笼罩在全球上空。</b></p>\n<p>根据最新数据显示，截至目前，全球新冠肺炎确诊病例超过1922万例，累计死亡超过71万例，目前美国、巴西和印度的确诊病例数约占全球确诊数的一半，形势严峻。其中，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊超过503万例，累计死亡超过16万例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59a401d2b3fadbd7dd7ac6913f3e3820\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"990\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：微博</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在过去的七天里，一个严峻的新情况出现了：在美国，每80秒就有一人死于新冠病毒\"——美国全国广播公司\n</blockquote>\n<p>时至今日，美国可以说是“自食恶果”，毕竟在疫情爆发初期，对疫情的轻视使得其未能有效进行防控，一错再错，错过了控制疫情蔓延的最佳拐点。</p>\n<p><b>而这一形势或许继续不受控。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n “在美国波士顿、芝加哥、底特律和华盛顿等城市，新冠病毒阳性比例还在缓慢上升，这预示着“未来不妙”。”——美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长福奇\n</blockquote>\n<p>在这么一个混乱的疫情时期，美国选择取消全球旅行着实是“迷惑行为”，毕竟目前来说，<b>目前全世界绝大多数国家与地区对此并不乐见，本身也不接受美国游客入境。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9049ed4814acf96bb30840f5efafc7d5\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"424\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p><i>中国继续暂停持有效中国签证、居留许可的外国人入境；</i></p>\n<p><i>加拿大、墨西哥等地对来自美国的非必要旅行限制至少持续到8月下旬；</i></p>\n<p><i>欧盟继续禁止美国游客入境，英国要求入境必须隔离14天；</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“就算美国解除了全球旅行警告，各地都没有欢迎美国旅行者”。——《国会山报》</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>因此，就外部环境而言，这一取消全球旅行警告对美国人来说，可谓是“旅游了个寂寞”，基本无处可游。</p>\n<p><b>美国经济“自身难保”</b></p>\n<p>而除了外部的限制之外，<b>也许美国人自身也并没有什么闲情逸致去旅游。</b></p>\n<p>在疫情还未平复之际，美国急不可待重启经济，使得疫情得到进一步激化，反而致使经济前景不确定性加重，尤其是在美联储的无限量放水之后，实体经济和金融体系之间的结构性矛盾进一步凸显。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “录得新增就业仅仅为16.7万人，远低于预期（150万人），前值从236.9万大幅上修至增加431.4万人。”——最新美国7月ADP就业报告\n</blockquote>\n<p>当美股的泡沫虚高、美元指数持续下挫、政府债务风险激增、失业率反弹等一系列痛症避无可避之时，<b>人们对美国经济前景趋于悲观，避险情绪自然占据上风</b>。</p>\n<p>美元指数情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73d735836a273185eb3dfaf97370034\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"375\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>10年期美债收益率情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0abfcd0d86d47a939ca4571aabba466d\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"343\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>这也就是为什么金价居高不下，频创记录的原因，毕竟美国经济和疫情一样，都具有较大的不确定性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e6770c194fbc3452eafb823bc01a2\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"292\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<blockquote>\n “这种对短期前景的不确定性，对经济复苏和消费者支出来说都不是好兆头。”——美国经济咨商会经济指标高级主管Lynn Franco\n</blockquote>\n<p>而在这样的情绪支配之下，市场信心和投资下滑也是有目共睹的，此时吃饱穿暖按时交房租才是真理。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “7月美国消费者信心指数从6月的78.1下跌到72.5，远低于去年同期（98.4）....7月美国消费者期待指数从6月的72.3下降到65.9。”——美国商务部\n</blockquote>\n<p>要知道一般来说，个人消费支出约占美国经济比重的七成，是促进美国经济增长的重要助力，而从上述可以看出，在短期内，美国消费者支出很难恢复正常水平，这也意味着：<b>即便是解除所谓的“全球旅行禁令”，人们也可能不会买账，只会更加握紧手中的钱袋子，那么与其直接相关的“嗷嗷待哺”的航空业也只能继续挣扎求生。</b></p>\n<p><b>提振航空业“有心无力”</b></p>\n<p>疫情打击了各行各业的发展势头，其中，旅游业自然首当其冲，拖着本就显出疲态的航空业一同陷入低谷。</p>\n<p>美国联邦运输安全管理局检查点安检人数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae77ad2dcfd91b0ecb4ec772367c6dc2\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"487\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：TSA</p>\n<p>在防控期间，<b>没有客流量的航空公司如同失去梦想的咸鱼，巨亏成为了常态</b>。</p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>公司二季度营收16亿美元，同比下降86.4%，净亏损达到20.67亿美元；</i></p>\n<p><i>美国联合航空公司二季度营收为14.75亿美元，仅为去年同期的零头（114.02亿美元）；二季度净亏损为16.27亿美元，由盈转亏（去年同期盈利10.52亿美元）；</i></p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>二季度营业收入14.68亿美元，同比下跌88.29%；净亏损57.17亿美元，同比下降496.19%，为2008年以来最大亏损数额；</i></p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>公司二季度营收略高于10亿美元，同比下降近83%，净亏损9.15亿美元，盈转亏（去年同期盈利7.41亿美元）...</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n “今年二季度，四大航企（美联航、达美航空、美国航空和西南航空）营收累计55亿美元，运营开支达到159亿美元，净亏损近120亿美元，相当于平均每天就要亏掉1亿美元。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>航空公司盈利框架图</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18d63d717dc1e4219d9f41724b46641\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"496\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：平安证券</p>\n<p>要知道，航空业具有重资产、高负债等属性，<b>运行成本压力一直不容忽视</b>，而这在疫情面前已不堪一击，面对骤减的客座率，于是我们看到了它们的“不得已而为之”，即收缩成本、大额裁员等自救之举。而随着在价值320亿美元的航空业援助计划支持逐渐减弱，<b>9月底之后，一旦没有新的政府援助，美国航空业或加重这一恶性循环。</b></p>\n<p>美国国内航班机票销售的下降情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346a8a508f07a5045c053202d8f1bf76\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"541\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：DDS</p>\n<p>购买国际机票的乘客数量的下降情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf8db9dcee59763e3f7222356579a16\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"612\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：DDS</p>\n<blockquote>\n “目前的环境比我们想象的更加不可预测，更加不稳定。”——美国航空公司首席执行官道格·帕克\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国航空WOLF STREET指数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2b4c9cb09cd9212187fb74e6c905bd\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"577\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：YCharts</p>\n<p>对此，巴菲特已有先见之明，“忍痛割爱”，纷纷清空了美国四大航的股票，总计数十亿美元。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“受新冠疫情影响，航空业已发生根本变化，三四年内航空客运人数都不会恢复到去年水平。”——巴菲特</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>今年以来，美联航股价已累计下跌超60%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e75ff6dd410a2e914a9407f2d8c46ea\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"293\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>达美航空累计下跌超53%，美国航空累计下跌超54%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8923fb227b7e32160cbd59407b69a3\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"291\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>而在此颓靡之象下，“取消全球旅行警告”这一举措或只是安抚人心的一纸空谈，隔夜美股的短线拉升就如同夏日绽放的烟火，短暂灿烂过后剩下喘息求生的虚无。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>新冠大流行这一卫生事件还未真正解决之时，<b>美国这一取消全球旅行的警告实在有些“鸡肋”</b>，毕竟疫情已重创经济，抑制消费，再加上多国的入境限制，人们难以心大的去出行。因此，在很大程度上，这一句“口嗨”也许只是特朗普为获取连任而提振市场信心，促消费的小手段之一。</p>\n<p>而在此情形之下，美国航空业的处境就显得较为卑微了，这一疫情重灾区所面临的经营困局大概率在中长期内无法解除，<b>漫漫复苏之路道阻且艰。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国航空业：我真的飞不动了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-07 21:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>一打开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>，被热搜吸引了眼球。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f621838ab05793f23fcf7ae6b9abaa5\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"942\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p>美东时间8月6日，<b>美国国务院宣布解除对本国公民的“第四级全球旅行警告”。</b></p>\n<p>上述这一警告自今年3月19日发出，旨在基于疫情影响，建议美国公民避免一切国际旅行。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5ea08c5d86fe2330df620a0220834a9\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"192\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：官网公告</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鉴于一些国家的卫生和安全状况正在改善，而其他国家可能正在恶化”，国务院恢复以前实施的按具体国家和地区给出旅行建议的制度。”——美国国务院\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c87ba67d35490005454dfceda7300ad\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"184\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：推特</p>\n<p>受此消息影响，隔夜美股航空股短线上扬，有所提振。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/762dace0e34f3d048871acdc668a6b84\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"289\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>然而，美国这一“此一时彼一时”的做法让人摸不着头脑，遭到网友诸多吐槽。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a05abab20fec93d6ecf762498e1f9fc\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"990\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p>毕竟，进入下半年，新冠疫情依旧面临严峻挑战，<b>而美国作为疫情发生的“主要震中”继续反复爆发，相关经济表现持续低迷，人们消费信心连连下降，哪有开始说走就走的旅行一说。</b></p>\n<p>在此之下，早已陷入亏损泥潭的航空业也只怕是越陷越深了。</p>\n<p><b>“不受欢迎”的美国人</b></p>\n<p><b>新冠疫情大流行的阴影依旧笼罩在全球上空。</b></p>\n<p>根据最新数据显示，截至目前，全球新冠肺炎确诊病例超过1922万例，累计死亡超过71万例，目前美国、巴西和印度的确诊病例数约占全球确诊数的一半，形势严峻。其中，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊超过503万例，累计死亡超过16万例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59a401d2b3fadbd7dd7ac6913f3e3820\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"990\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：微博</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在过去的七天里，一个严峻的新情况出现了：在美国，每80秒就有一人死于新冠病毒\"——美国全国广播公司\n</blockquote>\n<p>时至今日，美国可以说是“自食恶果”，毕竟在疫情爆发初期，对疫情的轻视使得其未能有效进行防控，一错再错，错过了控制疫情蔓延的最佳拐点。</p>\n<p><b>而这一形势或许继续不受控。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n “在美国波士顿、芝加哥、底特律和华盛顿等城市，新冠病毒阳性比例还在缓慢上升，这预示着“未来不妙”。”——美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长福奇\n</blockquote>\n<p>在这么一个混乱的疫情时期，美国选择取消全球旅行着实是“迷惑行为”，毕竟目前来说，<b>目前全世界绝大多数国家与地区对此并不乐见，本身也不接受美国游客入境。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9049ed4814acf96bb30840f5efafc7d5\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"424\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p><i>中国继续暂停持有效中国签证、居留许可的外国人入境；</i></p>\n<p><i>加拿大、墨西哥等地对来自美国的非必要旅行限制至少持续到8月下旬；</i></p>\n<p><i>欧盟继续禁止美国游客入境，英国要求入境必须隔离14天；</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“就算美国解除了全球旅行警告，各地都没有欢迎美国旅行者”。——《国会山报》</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>因此，就外部环境而言，这一取消全球旅行警告对美国人来说，可谓是“旅游了个寂寞”，基本无处可游。</p>\n<p><b>美国经济“自身难保”</b></p>\n<p>而除了外部的限制之外，<b>也许美国人自身也并没有什么闲情逸致去旅游。</b></p>\n<p>在疫情还未平复之际，美国急不可待重启经济，使得疫情得到进一步激化，反而致使经济前景不确定性加重，尤其是在美联储的无限量放水之后，实体经济和金融体系之间的结构性矛盾进一步凸显。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “录得新增就业仅仅为16.7万人，远低于预期（150万人），前值从236.9万大幅上修至增加431.4万人。”——最新美国7月ADP就业报告\n</blockquote>\n<p>当美股的泡沫虚高、美元指数持续下挫、政府债务风险激增、失业率反弹等一系列痛症避无可避之时，<b>人们对美国经济前景趋于悲观，避险情绪自然占据上风</b>。</p>\n<p>美元指数情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73d735836a273185eb3dfaf97370034\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"375\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>10年期美债收益率情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0abfcd0d86d47a939ca4571aabba466d\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"343\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>这也就是为什么金价居高不下，频创记录的原因，毕竟美国经济和疫情一样，都具有较大的不确定性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e6770c194fbc3452eafb823bc01a2\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"292\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<blockquote>\n “这种对短期前景的不确定性，对经济复苏和消费者支出来说都不是好兆头。”——美国经济咨商会经济指标高级主管Lynn Franco\n</blockquote>\n<p>而在这样的情绪支配之下，市场信心和投资下滑也是有目共睹的，此时吃饱穿暖按时交房租才是真理。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “7月美国消费者信心指数从6月的78.1下跌到72.5，远低于去年同期（98.4）....7月美国消费者期待指数从6月的72.3下降到65.9。”——美国商务部\n</blockquote>\n<p>要知道一般来说，个人消费支出约占美国经济比重的七成，是促进美国经济增长的重要助力，而从上述可以看出，在短期内，美国消费者支出很难恢复正常水平，这也意味着：<b>即便是解除所谓的“全球旅行禁令”，人们也可能不会买账，只会更加握紧手中的钱袋子，那么与其直接相关的“嗷嗷待哺”的航空业也只能继续挣扎求生。</b></p>\n<p><b>提振航空业“有心无力”</b></p>\n<p>疫情打击了各行各业的发展势头，其中，旅游业自然首当其冲，拖着本就显出疲态的航空业一同陷入低谷。</p>\n<p>美国联邦运输安全管理局检查点安检人数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae77ad2dcfd91b0ecb4ec772367c6dc2\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"487\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：TSA</p>\n<p>在防控期间，<b>没有客流量的航空公司如同失去梦想的咸鱼，巨亏成为了常态</b>。</p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>公司二季度营收16亿美元，同比下降86.4%，净亏损达到20.67亿美元；</i></p>\n<p><i>美国联合航空公司二季度营收为14.75亿美元，仅为去年同期的零头（114.02亿美元）；二季度净亏损为16.27亿美元，由盈转亏（去年同期盈利10.52亿美元）；</i></p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>二季度营业收入14.68亿美元，同比下跌88.29%；净亏损57.17亿美元，同比下降496.19%，为2008年以来最大亏损数额；</i></p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>公司二季度营收略高于10亿美元，同比下降近83%，净亏损9.15亿美元，盈转亏（去年同期盈利7.41亿美元）...</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n “今年二季度，四大航企（美联航、达美航空、美国航空和西南航空）营收累计55亿美元，运营开支达到159亿美元，净亏损近120亿美元，相当于平均每天就要亏掉1亿美元。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>航空公司盈利框架图</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18d63d717dc1e4219d9f41724b46641\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"496\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：平安证券</p>\n<p>要知道，航空业具有重资产、高负债等属性，<b>运行成本压力一直不容忽视</b>，而这在疫情面前已不堪一击，面对骤减的客座率，于是我们看到了它们的“不得已而为之”，即收缩成本、大额裁员等自救之举。而随着在价值320亿美元的航空业援助计划支持逐渐减弱，<b>9月底之后，一旦没有新的政府援助，美国航空业或加重这一恶性循环。</b></p>\n<p>美国国内航班机票销售的下降情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346a8a508f07a5045c053202d8f1bf76\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"541\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：DDS</p>\n<p>购买国际机票的乘客数量的下降情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf8db9dcee59763e3f7222356579a16\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"612\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：DDS</p>\n<blockquote>\n “目前的环境比我们想象的更加不可预测，更加不稳定。”——美国航空公司首席执行官道格·帕克\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国航空WOLF STREET指数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2b4c9cb09cd9212187fb74e6c905bd\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"577\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：YCharts</p>\n<p>对此，巴菲特已有先见之明，“忍痛割爱”，纷纷清空了美国四大航的股票，总计数十亿美元。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“受新冠疫情影响，航空业已发生根本变化，三四年内航空客运人数都不会恢复到去年水平。”——巴菲特</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>今年以来，美联航股价已累计下跌超60%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e75ff6dd410a2e914a9407f2d8c46ea\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"293\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>达美航空累计下跌超53%，美国航空累计下跌超54%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8923fb227b7e32160cbd59407b69a3\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"291\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>而在此颓靡之象下，“取消全球旅行警告”这一举措或只是安抚人心的一纸空谈，隔夜美股的短线拉升就如同夏日绽放的烟火，短暂灿烂过后剩下喘息求生的虚无。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>新冠大流行这一卫生事件还未真正解决之时，<b>美国这一取消全球旅行的警告实在有些“鸡肋”</b>，毕竟疫情已重创经济，抑制消费，再加上多国的入境限制，人们难以心大的去出行。因此，在很大程度上，这一句“口嗨”也许只是特朗普为获取连任而提振市场信心，促消费的小手段之一。</p>\n<p>而在此情形之下，美国航空业的处境就显得较为卑微了，这一疫情重灾区所面临的经营困局大概率在中长期内无法解除，<b>漫漫复苏之路道阻且艰。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6636b11e33b9db4872348d6da7bca3c0","relate_stocks":{"DAL":"达美航空","UAL":"联合大陆航空","AAL":"美国航空"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170742161","content_text":"一打开微博，被热搜吸引了眼球。\n\n资料来源：微博\n美东时间8月6日，美国国务院宣布解除对本国公民的“第四级全球旅行警告”。\n上述这一警告自今年3月19日发出，旨在基于疫情影响，建议美国公民避免一切国际旅行。\n\n资料来源：官网公告\n\n “鉴于一些国家的卫生和安全状况正在改善，而其他国家可能正在恶化”，国务院恢复以前实施的按具体国家和地区给出旅行建议的制度。”——美国国务院\n\n\n资料来源：推特\n受此消息影响，隔夜美股航空股短线上扬，有所提振。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n然而，美国这一“此一时彼一时”的做法让人摸不着头脑，遭到网友诸多吐槽。\n\n资料来源：微博\n毕竟，进入下半年，新冠疫情依旧面临严峻挑战，而美国作为疫情发生的“主要震中”继续反复爆发，相关经济表现持续低迷，人们消费信心连连下降，哪有开始说走就走的旅行一说。\n在此之下，早已陷入亏损泥潭的航空业也只怕是越陷越深了。\n“不受欢迎”的美国人\n新冠疫情大流行的阴影依旧笼罩在全球上空。\n根据最新数据显示，截至目前，全球新冠肺炎确诊病例超过1922万例，累计死亡超过71万例，目前美国、巴西和印度的确诊病例数约占全球确诊数的一半，形势严峻。其中，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊超过503万例，累计死亡超过16万例。\n\n数据来源：微博\n\n “在过去的七天里，一个严峻的新情况出现了：在美国，每80秒就有一人死于新冠病毒\"——美国全国广播公司\n\n时至今日，美国可以说是“自食恶果”，毕竟在疫情爆发初期，对疫情的轻视使得其未能有效进行防控，一错再错，错过了控制疫情蔓延的最佳拐点。\n而这一形势或许继续不受控。\n\n “在美国波士顿、芝加哥、底特律和华盛顿等城市，新冠病毒阳性比例还在缓慢上升，这预示着“未来不妙”。”——美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长福奇\n\n在这么一个混乱的疫情时期，美国选择取消全球旅行着实是“迷惑行为”，毕竟目前来说，目前全世界绝大多数国家与地区对此并不乐见，本身也不接受美国游客入境。\n\n资料来源：微博\n中国继续暂停持有效中国签证、居留许可的外国人入境；\n加拿大、墨西哥等地对来自美国的非必要旅行限制至少持续到8月下旬；\n欧盟继续禁止美国游客入境，英国要求入境必须隔离14天；\n\n“就算美国解除了全球旅行警告，各地都没有欢迎美国旅行者”。——《国会山报》\n\n因此，就外部环境而言，这一取消全球旅行警告对美国人来说，可谓是“旅游了个寂寞”，基本无处可游。\n美国经济“自身难保”\n而除了外部的限制之外，也许美国人自身也并没有什么闲情逸致去旅游。\n在疫情还未平复之际，美国急不可待重启经济，使得疫情得到进一步激化，反而致使经济前景不确定性加重，尤其是在美联储的无限量放水之后，实体经济和金融体系之间的结构性矛盾进一步凸显。\n\n “录得新增就业仅仅为16.7万人，远低于预期（150万人），前值从236.9万大幅上修至增加431.4万人。”——最新美国7月ADP就业报告\n\n当美股的泡沫虚高、美元指数持续下挫、政府债务风险激增、失业率反弹等一系列痛症避无可避之时，人们对美国经济前景趋于悲观，避险情绪自然占据上风。\n美元指数情况\n\n数据来源：Wind\n10年期美债收益率情况\n\n数据来源：Wind\n这也就是为什么金价居高不下，频创记录的原因，毕竟美国经济和疫情一样，都具有较大的不确定性。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n\n “这种对短期前景的不确定性，对经济复苏和消费者支出来说都不是好兆头。”——美国经济咨商会经济指标高级主管Lynn Franco\n\n而在这样的情绪支配之下，市场信心和投资下滑也是有目共睹的，此时吃饱穿暖按时交房租才是真理。\n\n “7月美国消费者信心指数从6月的78.1下跌到72.5，远低于去年同期（98.4）....7月美国消费者期待指数从6月的72.3下降到65.9。”——美国商务部\n\n要知道一般来说，个人消费支出约占美国经济比重的七成，是促进美国经济增长的重要助力，而从上述可以看出，在短期内，美国消费者支出很难恢复正常水平，这也意味着：即便是解除所谓的“全球旅行禁令”，人们也可能不会买账，只会更加握紧手中的钱袋子，那么与其直接相关的“嗷嗷待哺”的航空业也只能继续挣扎求生。\n提振航空业“有心无力”\n疫情打击了各行各业的发展势头，其中，旅游业自然首当其冲，拖着本就显出疲态的航空业一同陷入低谷。\n美国联邦运输安全管理局检查点安检人数\n\n数据来源：TSA\n在防控期间，没有客流量的航空公司如同失去梦想的咸鱼，巨亏成为了常态。\n美国航空公司二季度营收16亿美元，同比下降86.4%，净亏损达到20.67亿美元；\n美国联合航空公司二季度营收为14.75亿美元，仅为去年同期的零头（114.02亿美元）；二季度净亏损为16.27亿美元，由盈转亏（去年同期盈利10.52亿美元）；\n达美航空二季度营业收入14.68亿美元，同比下跌88.29%；净亏损57.17亿美元，同比下降496.19%，为2008年以来最大亏损数额；\n西南航空公司二季度营收略高于10亿美元，同比下降近83%，净亏损9.15亿美元，盈转亏（去年同期盈利7.41亿美元）...\n\n “今年二季度，四大航企（美联航、达美航空、美国航空和西南航空）营收累计55亿美元，运营开支达到159亿美元，净亏损近120亿美元，相当于平均每天就要亏掉1亿美元。”——公开数据\n\n航空公司盈利框架图\n\n资料来源：平安证券\n要知道，航空业具有重资产、高负债等属性，运行成本压力一直不容忽视，而这在疫情面前已不堪一击，面对骤减的客座率，于是我们看到了它们的“不得已而为之”，即收缩成本、大额裁员等自救之举。而随着在价值320亿美元的航空业援助计划支持逐渐减弱，9月底之后，一旦没有新的政府援助，美国航空业或加重这一恶性循环。\n美国国内航班机票销售的下降情况\n\n数据来源：DDS\n购买国际机票的乘客数量的下降情况\n\n数据来源：DDS\n\n “目前的环境比我们想象的更加不可预测，更加不稳定。”——美国航空公司首席执行官道格·帕克\n\n美国航空WOLF STREET指数\n\n数据来源：YCharts\n对此，巴菲特已有先见之明，“忍痛割爱”，纷纷清空了美国四大航的股票，总计数十亿美元。\n\n“受新冠疫情影响，航空业已发生根本变化，三四年内航空客运人数都不会恢复到去年水平。”——巴菲特\n\n今年以来，美联航股价已累计下跌超60%。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n达美航空累计下跌超53%，美国航空累计下跌超54%。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n而在此颓靡之象下，“取消全球旅行警告”这一举措或只是安抚人心的一纸空谈，隔夜美股的短线拉升就如同夏日绽放的烟火，短暂灿烂过后剩下喘息求生的虚无。\n结语\n新冠大流行这一卫生事件还未真正解决之时，美国这一取消全球旅行的警告实在有些“鸡肋”，毕竟疫情已重创经济，抑制消费，再加上多国的入境限制，人们难以心大的去出行。因此，在很大程度上，这一句“口嗨”也许只是特朗普为获取连任而提振市场信心，促消费的小手段之一。\n而在此情形之下，美国航空业的处境就显得较为卑微了，这一疫情重灾区所面临的经营困局大概率在中长期内无法解除，漫漫复苏之路道阻且艰。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959359599,"gmtCreate":1589804004811,"gmtModify":1704190635143,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>空头快平","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>空头快平","text":"$美国航空(AAL)$空头快平","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959359599","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927661045,"gmtCreate":1588859330587,"gmtModify":1704178678254,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈，迷信股神不如信自己","listText":"哈哈，迷信股神不如信自己","text":"哈哈，迷信股神不如信自己","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927661045","repostId":"2033313335","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2033313335","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1588665360,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2033313335?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-05 15:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特，老了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2033313335","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"· 这是第3287篇原创首发文章  字数 2k+ ·· 冀田 | 文  关注秦朔朋友圈  ID：qspyq2015 ·老骥89岁的时候，巴菲特第一次在线上用PPT开股东会。他说老狗也要学习新技能。他持","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p initial=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sc=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4e8abe480ea4e34b1e85e6168b163b7\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sc=\"\" semibold=\"\"><span><span arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>· </span></strong></span>这是第</span><span>3287</span><span>篇原创首发文章  </span><span>字数 2k<span>+</span> </span><span>·</span></p><p arial=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border-box=\"\" box-sizing:=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" line-height:=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" overflow-wrap:=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" text-align:=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" white-space:=\"\" word-wrap:=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>· 冀田 | 文  关注</span><span>秦朔朋友圈 </span><span> </span><span>ID：qspyq2015 </span><span><strong><span>·</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfd77cfb07164fa2bcb57804c1455112\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p><span><strong><span>老骥</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>89岁的时候，巴菲特第一次在线上用PPT开股东会。他说老狗也要学习新技能。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他持有的股票里，按市值计算<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司排第一，占其持股总市值的30%。这家公司在他77岁的时候推出了一个叫智能手机的东西，老头子花了9年时间研究。看懂了。2016年第一次买了苹果股票。如果你看看橱柜里买给老爸老妈、爷爷奶奶用的老年机，可能还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>的模样，只能打电话，150块钱一个。就凭这点，巴菲特与时俱进的学习能力还是很强的。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a255ee9058345a388c11835fb25acee\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3816d7401464be1b6f233d5ee846348\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>不懂</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>巴菲特读书的时候，会计很好，生物很差。</span><span>所以，他只能说这次病毒危机和金融危机完全不一样。</span><span>病毒会怎么发展？</span><span>影响很大，他说不清楚。</span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>好在他有最好的朋友比尔·盖茨，和他讨论。比尔·盖茨一生都在和病毒作战。从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>退休前，和电脑病毒作战，现在盖茨基金会在和生物病毒作战。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>但巴菲特还是没搞懂微软和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>的股票，哪个更好。<strong>老爷子一分钱微软都没买过。但不仅买了IBM，还做了第一大股东，然后割肉出局。</strong>很多人已经不记得，装在IBM小黑本上的微软最稳定，中毒少，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>电脑就差很多了。<strong>微软现在的市值是10个IBM。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>来看巴菲特股东大会的，有两类人，一类是来沾股神仙气的，股神说什么不要紧；一类是来取真经的，但股神说他也不懂，是啥意思呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>不懂就是不懂，比不懂装懂好。老巴很可爱。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214770ac60584264b2a8b3aaa4c8952f\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>果断</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>本来呢，老爷子一口气买入美国四大航空公司，不是第一大股东就是第二大股东。</span><span>看阵势，要控股航空业，重组个巴菲特航空出来。</span><strong><span>没想到股东会上，老爷子轻松说，全清仓了。</span><span>四个大股东，一个月时间清仓，这事谁干的出来？</span></strong><span></span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>，买入成本31亿，去年年底浮盈10亿。那时候股价58美元，现在25美元，抹去浮盈，还亏13亿。说卖就卖了，一股不剩。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>老爷子说，我们卖股票的时候，要卖就全卖，一半一半地卖，我们不要这样做。我们就是一下子卖到底。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>想想我们自己，买的时候要定投，卖的时候舍不得。咋就那么纠结。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>越老决策力越强，割肉都这么帅。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a59bfed1fc4b09999c7a9c1ed3322e\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1242434d731348f1ba130d387745d317\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>恐惧</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>巴菲特老说别人恐惧时，自己要贪婪。</span><span>贪婪就要加仓。</span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>看得出来，老爷子还没开始贪婪，他还在恐惧。他在一季度疫情期间股价暴跌的时候，不仅没加仓，还割肉了，仓位更低了，现金更多了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>股东会上，他说他出生前的事。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他老爸27岁生的他。生他前一年是1929年，那年10月美国大股灾爆发，大萧条开始。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他爸爸当时是股票经纪人，替别人买卖股票。他替人把一支股票卖给了好几个人，结果这支股票跌了40%。他老爸觉得没办法面对这些买了股票的人，决定开始居家，类似现在的居家隔离。10个月后，巴菲特就出生了，生日是1930年8月30号。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>从那天开始，股价就开始回升了，半个月的时间涨了20%。熊市反弹。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>到1932年巴菲特2岁的时候，几乎所有股票都涨了80%以上。他老爸那时候已经不用太内疚了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>生下来就受恐惧训练，老爷子的恐惧阀值很高，不轻易恐惧，因此也不轻易贪婪。不贪婪就不出手。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>没想到，张三丰90岁的时候遇到敌手。对病毒，老爷子，怕是有点怕了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>反过来说，连巴菲特都怕了，咱们是不是该贪婪呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/576ec06428714dbf8adb2b5c1b9d956d\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60a11abf669497a9bd950dafd0afd85\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><strong><span>“神话”</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>老爷子牛，牛在</span><span>50年</span><span>来，没有一个基金经理业绩超过他。</span><span>当然，也找不出另一个人，有</span><span>50</span><span>年的投资业绩。</span></strong><span></span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>老爷子靠实力说话，炒股成了世界首富。多少做投资的人，想想巴菲特，就不在乎那几根掉的头发了。<strong>老爷子就是投资青年们奋进征途上的明灯。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>好事者统计了1965年至2020年55年的时间里，老爷子赚取超额收益的能力，也就是跑赢/跑输大盘指数（标普500指数）的情况。竟然发现，神话已破十几个年头，只是我们没把神的业绩当人去分析。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264e739a4edc440cb4274685b9ce9050\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span>| 巴菲特55年来超额收益越来越低</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>巴菲特的超额收益高峰在</span><span>50</span><span>岁左右，此后一路下跌。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>更严重的是，巴菲特的投资风格是大盘价值股，而十几年来，他跑不赢大盘指数，也跑不赢价值指数。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c87dd3ec46643f3b3dcaaac8239f2b0\"/><span>| <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>和指数的超额收益，数据截至2019年年中，至今没大变化</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e48c0a9be140484ab30337414774b813\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><strong><span>接班</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>人们议论巴菲特打不赢市场的原因。有这么几个。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>市场风格变了。</span></strong><span>2008年</span><span>以来，价值股表现显著低于成长股。</span><span>这个理由站得住脚。</span><span>不过，苹果是成长股还是价值股？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>规模太大。</span></strong><span></span><span>股神几千亿美元的规模太大了，和整个市场没区别。</span><span>那我们买指数就行了，参加股东大会干啥？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>只能钓大鱼。</span></strong><span></span><span>资金太大导致的。</span><span>但这不是理由。</span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>都是大股票，买了就跑赢市场啊。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>踩了雷。</span></strong><span></span><span>比如说，老爷子促成了亨氏和卡夫合并，番茄酱拌上了奥利奥、太平梳打，外加麦斯威尔咖啡。</span><span>结果是股价跌了</span><span>50%</span><span>多，减值了</span><span>150</span><span>亿。</span><span><span>这个理由站</span>得<span>住脚。</span></span><span>但为什么踩雷呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>却没人敢说他老了。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5027270aa64f05bf88afb69b9c3c1b\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他要90岁了。他的合伙人芒格96岁。芒格没有参加今年的股东会，巴菲特说芒格很壮实，明年会来。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他的储备接班人之一阿贝尔，59岁，加拿大人，会计专业，在普华永道PWC工作过，一直在能源行业，分管伯克希尔的非保险业务运营。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>另一个接班人简因，68岁，印度人，机器工程学专业、IBM销售出身，哈佛MBA毕业，在麦肯锡做过咨询，后加入伯克希尔负责保险业务运营。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>两人中没一个有职业股票投资经历。</span><span>股神</span><span>怎么想的？</span></strong><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/291fa5cbaa874ab99146756a9b1b4398\" width=\"auto\"/></span></p><ul><li><p><span><span>作者简介：</span><span>冀田，领复资本创始人、注册金融分析师（</span><span>CFA</span><span>）、《家庭投资和家族办公室》一书作者，</span><span>风险投资人。</span></span></p></li></ul><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>「 本文仅代表作者个人观点 」</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span>「 图片 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span><span> 」</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4376fe67452460095daeeb303cb5815\" width=\"auto\"/></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>秦朔朋友圈id：qspyq2015 开白名单：duanyu_H</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>商务合作：biz@chinamoments.org</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>内容合作、投稿交流：friends@chinamoments.org</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb208e49197d4c7f929917a4badcd0bc\"/></span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13018f586f174a4ebbf18b5ebd7cc893\"/></span></span><span><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b987cd934d9f4a199f170943986fa882\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></span></p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特，老了？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特，老了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-05-05 15:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p initial=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sc=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4e8abe480ea4e34b1e85e6168b163b7\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sc=\"\" semibold=\"\"><span><span arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>· </span></strong></span>这是第</span><span>3287</span><span>篇原创首发文章  </span><span>字数 2k<span>+</span> </span><span>·</span></p><p arial=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border-box=\"\" box-sizing:=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" line-height:=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" overflow-wrap:=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" text-align:=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" white-space:=\"\" word-wrap:=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>· 冀田 | 文  关注</span><span>秦朔朋友圈 </span><span> </span><span>ID：qspyq2015 </span><span><strong><span>·</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfd77cfb07164fa2bcb57804c1455112\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p><span><strong><span>老骥</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>89岁的时候，巴菲特第一次在线上用PPT开股东会。他说老狗也要学习新技能。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他持有的股票里，按市值计算<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司排第一，占其持股总市值的30%。这家公司在他77岁的时候推出了一个叫智能手机的东西，老头子花了9年时间研究。看懂了。2016年第一次买了苹果股票。如果你看看橱柜里买给老爸老妈、爷爷奶奶用的老年机，可能还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>的模样，只能打电话，150块钱一个。就凭这点，巴菲特与时俱进的学习能力还是很强的。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a255ee9058345a388c11835fb25acee\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3816d7401464be1b6f233d5ee846348\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>不懂</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>巴菲特读书的时候，会计很好，生物很差。</span><span>所以，他只能说这次病毒危机和金融危机完全不一样。</span><span>病毒会怎么发展？</span><span>影响很大，他说不清楚。</span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>好在他有最好的朋友比尔·盖茨，和他讨论。比尔·盖茨一生都在和病毒作战。从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>退休前，和电脑病毒作战，现在盖茨基金会在和生物病毒作战。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>但巴菲特还是没搞懂微软和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>的股票，哪个更好。<strong>老爷子一分钱微软都没买过。但不仅买了IBM，还做了第一大股东，然后割肉出局。</strong>很多人已经不记得，装在IBM小黑本上的微软最稳定，中毒少，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>电脑就差很多了。<strong>微软现在的市值是10个IBM。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>来看巴菲特股东大会的，有两类人，一类是来沾股神仙气的，股神说什么不要紧；一类是来取真经的，但股神说他也不懂，是啥意思呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>不懂就是不懂，比不懂装懂好。老巴很可爱。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214770ac60584264b2a8b3aaa4c8952f\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>果断</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>本来呢，老爷子一口气买入美国四大航空公司，不是第一大股东就是第二大股东。</span><span>看阵势，要控股航空业，重组个巴菲特航空出来。</span><strong><span>没想到股东会上，老爷子轻松说，全清仓了。</span><span>四个大股东，一个月时间清仓，这事谁干的出来？</span></strong><span></span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>，买入成本31亿，去年年底浮盈10亿。那时候股价58美元，现在25美元，抹去浮盈，还亏13亿。说卖就卖了，一股不剩。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>老爷子说，我们卖股票的时候，要卖就全卖，一半一半地卖，我们不要这样做。我们就是一下子卖到底。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>想想我们自己，买的时候要定投，卖的时候舍不得。咋就那么纠结。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>越老决策力越强，割肉都这么帅。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a59bfed1fc4b09999c7a9c1ed3322e\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1242434d731348f1ba130d387745d317\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>恐惧</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>巴菲特老说别人恐惧时，自己要贪婪。</span><span>贪婪就要加仓。</span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>看得出来，老爷子还没开始贪婪，他还在恐惧。他在一季度疫情期间股价暴跌的时候，不仅没加仓，还割肉了，仓位更低了，现金更多了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>股东会上，他说他出生前的事。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他老爸27岁生的他。生他前一年是1929年，那年10月美国大股灾爆发，大萧条开始。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他爸爸当时是股票经纪人，替别人买卖股票。他替人把一支股票卖给了好几个人，结果这支股票跌了40%。他老爸觉得没办法面对这些买了股票的人，决定开始居家，类似现在的居家隔离。10个月后，巴菲特就出生了，生日是1930年8月30号。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>从那天开始，股价就开始回升了，半个月的时间涨了20%。熊市反弹。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>到1932年巴菲特2岁的时候，几乎所有股票都涨了80%以上。他老爸那时候已经不用太内疚了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>生下来就受恐惧训练，老爷子的恐惧阀值很高，不轻易恐惧，因此也不轻易贪婪。不贪婪就不出手。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>没想到，张三丰90岁的时候遇到敌手。对病毒，老爷子，怕是有点怕了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>反过来说，连巴菲特都怕了，咱们是不是该贪婪呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/576ec06428714dbf8adb2b5c1b9d956d\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60a11abf669497a9bd950dafd0afd85\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><strong><span>“神话”</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>老爷子牛，牛在</span><span>50年</span><span>来，没有一个基金经理业绩超过他。</span><span>当然，也找不出另一个人，有</span><span>50</span><span>年的投资业绩。</span></strong><span></span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>老爷子靠实力说话，炒股成了世界首富。多少做投资的人，想想巴菲特，就不在乎那几根掉的头发了。<strong>老爷子就是投资青年们奋进征途上的明灯。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>好事者统计了1965年至2020年55年的时间里，老爷子赚取超额收益的能力，也就是跑赢/跑输大盘指数（标普500指数）的情况。竟然发现，神话已破十几个年头，只是我们没把神的业绩当人去分析。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264e739a4edc440cb4274685b9ce9050\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span>| 巴菲特55年来超额收益越来越低</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>巴菲特的超额收益高峰在</span><span>50</span><span>岁左右，此后一路下跌。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>更严重的是，巴菲特的投资风格是大盘价值股，而十几年来，他跑不赢大盘指数，也跑不赢价值指数。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c87dd3ec46643f3b3dcaaac8239f2b0\"/><span>| <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>和指数的超额收益，数据截至2019年年中，至今没大变化</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e48c0a9be140484ab30337414774b813\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><strong><span>接班</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>人们议论巴菲特打不赢市场的原因。有这么几个。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>市场风格变了。</span></strong><span>2008年</span><span>以来，价值股表现显著低于成长股。</span><span>这个理由站得住脚。</span><span>不过，苹果是成长股还是价值股？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>规模太大。</span></strong><span></span><span>股神几千亿美元的规模太大了，和整个市场没区别。</span><span>那我们买指数就行了，参加股东大会干啥？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>只能钓大鱼。</span></strong><span></span><span>资金太大导致的。</span><span>但这不是理由。</span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>都是大股票，买了就跑赢市场啊。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>踩了雷。</span></strong><span></span><span>比如说，老爷子促成了亨氏和卡夫合并，番茄酱拌上了奥利奥、太平梳打，外加麦斯威尔咖啡。</span><span>结果是股价跌了</span><span>50%</span><span>多，减值了</span><span>150</span><span>亿。</span><span><span>这个理由站</span>得<span>住脚。</span></span><span>但为什么踩雷呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>却没人敢说他老了。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5027270aa64f05bf88afb69b9c3c1b\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他要90岁了。他的合伙人芒格96岁。芒格没有参加今年的股东会，巴菲特说芒格很壮实，明年会来。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他的储备接班人之一阿贝尔，59岁，加拿大人，会计专业，在普华永道PWC工作过，一直在能源行业，分管伯克希尔的非保险业务运营。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>另一个接班人简因，68岁，印度人，机器工程学专业、IBM销售出身，哈佛MBA毕业，在麦肯锡做过咨询，后加入伯克希尔负责保险业务运营。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>两人中没一个有职业股票投资经历。</span><span>股神</span><span>怎么想的？</span></strong><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/291fa5cbaa874ab99146756a9b1b4398\" width=\"auto\"/></span></p><ul><li><p><span><span>作者简介：</span><span>冀田，领复资本创始人、注册金融分析师（</span><span>CFA</span><span>）、《家庭投资和家族办公室》一书作者，</span><span>风险投资人。</span></span></p></li></ul><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>「 本文仅代表作者个人观点 」</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span>「 图片 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span><span> 」</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4376fe67452460095daeeb303cb5815\" width=\"auto\"/></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>秦朔朋友圈id：qspyq2015 开白名单：duanyu_H</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>商务合作：biz@chinamoments.org</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>内容合作、投稿交流：friends@chinamoments.org</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb208e49197d4c7f929917a4badcd0bc\"/></span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13018f586f174a4ebbf18b5ebd7cc893\"/></span></span><span><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b987cd934d9f4a199f170943986fa882\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></span></p>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e152604a758586cf70e9ccdd654d17d","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODI5NDg0Mw==&mid=2654114027&idx=2&sn=8fb30abe439520375efed6d6713c0060&chksm=8482cabfb3f543a9b998b9b4df396c5450ad6c7c4d3e366726e750f6b87454294486f3de9b71&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2033313335","content_text":"· 这是第3287篇原创首发文章  字数 2k+ ·· 冀田 | 文  关注秦朔朋友圈  ID：qspyq2015 ·老骥89岁的时候，巴菲特第一次在线上用PPT开股东会。他说老狗也要学习新技能。他持有的股票里，按市值计算苹果公司排第一，占其持股总市值的30%。这家公司在他77岁的时候推出了一个叫智能手机的东西，老头子花了9年时间研究。看懂了。2016年第一次买了苹果股票。如果你看看橱柜里买给老爸老妈、爷爷奶奶用的老年机，可能还是爱立信的模样，只能打电话，150块钱一个。就凭这点，巴菲特与时俱进的学习能力还是很强的。不懂巴菲特读书的时候，会计很好，生物很差。所以，他只能说这次病毒危机和金融危机完全不一样。病毒会怎么发展？影响很大，他说不清楚。好在他有最好的朋友比尔·盖茨，和他讨论。比尔·盖茨一生都在和病毒作战。从微软退休前，和电脑病毒作战，现在盖茨基金会在和生物病毒作战。但巴菲特还是没搞懂微软和IBM的股票，哪个更好。老爷子一分钱微软都没买过。但不仅买了IBM，还做了第一大股东，然后割肉出局。很多人已经不记得，装在IBM小黑本上的微软最稳定，中毒少，戴尔电脑就差很多了。微软现在的市值是10个IBM。来看巴菲特股东大会的，有两类人，一类是来沾股神仙气的，股神说什么不要紧；一类是来取真经的，但股神说他也不懂，是啥意思呢？不懂就是不懂，比不懂装懂好。老巴很可爱。果断本来呢，老爷子一口气买入美国四大航空公司，不是第一大股东就是第二大股东。看阵势，要控股航空业，重组个巴菲特航空出来。没想到股东会上，老爷子轻松说，全清仓了。四个大股东，一个月时间清仓，这事谁干的出来？达美航空，买入成本31亿，去年年底浮盈10亿。那时候股价58美元，现在25美元，抹去浮盈，还亏13亿。说卖就卖了，一股不剩。老爷子说，我们卖股票的时候，要卖就全卖，一半一半地卖，我们不要这样做。我们就是一下子卖到底。想想我们自己，买的时候要定投，卖的时候舍不得。咋就那么纠结。越老决策力越强，割肉都这么帅。恐惧巴菲特老说别人恐惧时，自己要贪婪。贪婪就要加仓。看得出来，老爷子还没开始贪婪，他还在恐惧。他在一季度疫情期间股价暴跌的时候，不仅没加仓，还割肉了，仓位更低了，现金更多了。股东会上，他说他出生前的事。他老爸27岁生的他。生他前一年是1929年，那年10月美国大股灾爆发，大萧条开始。他爸爸当时是股票经纪人，替别人买卖股票。他替人把一支股票卖给了好几个人，结果这支股票跌了40%。他老爸觉得没办法面对这些买了股票的人，决定开始居家，类似现在的居家隔离。10个月后，巴菲特就出生了，生日是1930年8月30号。从那天开始，股价就开始回升了，半个月的时间涨了20%。熊市反弹。到1932年巴菲特2岁的时候，几乎所有股票都涨了80%以上。他老爸那时候已经不用太内疚了。生下来就受恐惧训练，老爷子的恐惧阀值很高，不轻易恐惧，因此也不轻易贪婪。不贪婪就不出手。没想到，张三丰90岁的时候遇到敌手。对病毒，老爷子，怕是有点怕了。反过来说，连巴菲特都怕了，咱们是不是该贪婪呢？“神话”老爷子牛，牛在50年来，没有一个基金经理业绩超过他。当然，也找不出另一个人，有50年的投资业绩。老爷子靠实力说话，炒股成了世界首富。多少做投资的人，想想巴菲特，就不在乎那几根掉的头发了。老爷子就是投资青年们奋进征途上的明灯。好事者统计了1965年至2020年55年的时间里，老爷子赚取超额收益的能力，也就是跑赢/跑输大盘指数（标普500指数）的情况。竟然发现，神话已破十几个年头，只是我们没把神的业绩当人去分析。| 巴菲特55年来超额收益越来越低巴菲特的超额收益高峰在50岁左右，此后一路下跌。更严重的是，巴菲特的投资风格是大盘价值股，而十几年来，他跑不赢大盘指数，也跑不赢价值指数。| 伯克希尔和指数的超额收益，数据截至2019年年中，至今没大变化接班人们议论巴菲特打不赢市场的原因。有这么几个。市场风格变了。2008年以来，价值股表现显著低于成长股。这个理由站得住脚。不过，苹果是成长股还是价值股？规模太大。股神几千亿美元的规模太大了，和整个市场没区别。那我们买指数就行了，参加股东大会干啥？只能钓大鱼。资金太大导致的。但这不是理由。亚马逊、微软、谷歌都是大股票，买了就跑赢市场啊。踩了雷。比如说，老爷子促成了亨氏和卡夫合并，番茄酱拌上了奥利奥、太平梳打，外加麦斯威尔咖啡。结果是股价跌了50%多，减值了150亿。这个理由站得住脚。但为什么踩雷呢？却没人敢说他老了。他要90岁了。他的合伙人芒格96岁。芒格没有参加今年的股东会，巴菲特说芒格很壮实，明年会来。他的储备接班人之一阿贝尔，59岁，加拿大人，会计专业，在普华永道PWC工作过，一直在能源行业，分管伯克希尔的非保险业务运营。另一个接班人简因，68岁，印度人，机器工程学专业、IBM销售出身，哈佛MBA毕业，在麦肯锡做过咨询，后加入伯克希尔负责保险业务运营。两人中没一个有职业股票投资经历。股神怎么想的？作者简介：冀田，领复资本创始人、注册金融分析师（CFA）、《家庭投资和家族办公室》一书作者，风险投资人。「 本文仅代表作者个人观点 」「 图片 | 视觉中国 」秦朔朋友圈id：qspyq2015 开白名单：duanyu_H商务合作：biz@chinamoments.org内容合作、投稿交流：friends@chinamoments.org","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924481060,"gmtCreate":1588580107850,"gmtModify":1704367791150,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3435375058332778","idStr":"3435375058332778"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>巴菲特也配叫股神？纯**","listText":"<a 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