无水的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2020-04-16

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 虽然都觉得他造假，但既然财报出了，想短期让他自爆也是很难的……

2020-04-09

$跟谁学(GSX)$好未来我是听同事说，他家孩子抢报学而思，跟谁学如果不是做美股，还真不知道他是干嘛的，所以，他的市场真有那么大么？至少身边没人用[捂脸]

2020-04-03

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$今天瑞幸门店都在被挤兑，万一明天充的券没了可咋整[笑哭]

2020-04-17

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 不自爆就做多，觉得做多风险大，就卖短期的PUT，来股市是赚钱的，又不是要把GSX娶回家，干嘛要每天多空双方互道SB……

2020-05-08

$金山云(KC)$是不是大家都是50股

2020-02-04

$中国飞鹤(06186)$港股通啥时候调整名单

2020-08-21

$呷哺呷哺(00520)$你还是火锅店么[开心]

2020-04-01

$富国银行(WFC)$美国的流动性足的很，根本不会向英国那样被政府要求取消分红，你一个美国的银行跟着汇丰凑什么热闹[生气] 是为了给大家机会买么

2020-03-31

$ResMed Inc(RMD)$这股好像没啥人知道，成交很少

2020-02-12

$慧择控股(HUIZ)$不知道能中多少

10-04

不认同，说这话的人，要么是坏，比如李某，要么是刚入市的小白。亏的是自己的，赚的是别人的钱，当然是自己不亏更重要。《繁花》爷叔怎么说的，不要比谁赚的多，要比谁活的长！

2020-10-13

别的对不对不去谈，苹果年度股息0.82？苹果是季度股息0.82……

苹果将迎来一个平庸的十年，谨慎“逢低买入”

2020-04-07

$达美航空(DAL)$ 做空的，还好早上盘后卖出了

2020-03-28

$联合大陆航空(UAL)$ 卖31元put，盘后差点跌破[喷血] 看来反弹毕竟只是反弹

2020-02-12

$慧择控股(HUIZ)$ 100股中50股

2020-01-27

2020年我看好 $特斯拉(TSLA)$

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19:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果将迎来一个平庸的十年，谨慎“逢低买入”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148943597","media":"猛兽财经","summary":"近几个月来，我们目睹了苹果股票在拆分后的大幅上涨，这将其估值推到了几乎前所未有的水平。虽然从历史上看，在股价下跌时买入苹果股票是明智的做法，但这次股价下跌可能会让投资者获得更多资本。在这篇文章中，我们","content":"<p>近几个月来，我们目睹了苹果股票在拆分后的大幅上涨，这将其估值推到了几乎前所未有的水平。</p><p>虽然从历史上看，在股价下跌时买入苹果股票是明智的做法，但这次股价下跌可能会让投资者获得更多资本。</p><p>在这篇文章中，我们将评估苹果公司未来十年的投资回报率，以阐明我们的观点：对于那些希望大幅跑赢大盘的投资者，我们建议对苹果公司保持谨慎，在不高于115美元的位置买入为宜；对于偏好股息增长型投资者，我们认为可以买入并长期持有苹果公司。</p><p>众所周知，目前苹果的估值相较于历史大幅膨胀，这是否会导致它未来进入平庸的十年？还是目前是投资者逢低买入的时机？</p><p>苹果公司的投资者们在2020年获得了丰厚的回报，赚得盆满钵满。今年迄今为止，苹果股票的涨幅高达55%。这一举动恰恰凸显了为什么苹果是只可以持有而不可以交易的股票。为此，“逢低买入”是苹果公司经得起时间考验的投资策略。9月初，苹果股价创下历史新高，随后下跌了近20%。很多投资者发出了疑问——应该买入苹果股票吗？</p><p>在本文中，我们将回顾历史上对苹果股票“逢低买入”的结果，并重新全面评估苹果公司。之前我们曾将苹果的可穿戴设备和服务业务作为独立业务进行评估，今天我们将重新提供一个评估。</p><p>根据我们此前的评估，苹果的每股价值是108美元，也就是说，目前苹果被高估了。由于最终计算的预期回报率仅略高于我们的投资最低预期回报率，我们当前选择观望，并建议投资者避免或者谨慎地在此轮下跌时买入。</p><p><b>苹果过去成功的“逢低买入”策略</b></p><p>在过去的20年里，在市场回调15~20%时买入苹果公司的股票，是一种非常非常成功的投资策略。</p><p>苹果在2020年9月1日创下历史新高137.98美元后，然后在过去一个月下跌了约15~20%。因此，如果历史走势可以借鉴，投资者现在应该买进苹果股票。<b>不过，我们现在不确定是否要买苹果的股票</b>，因为它的估值仍然偏高（即使在修正之后），而且预期回报率仅略高于我们的投资预期回报率。</p><p>除了iPhone发布的那段时间，苹果公司的估值从未如此之高。这不仅对QQQ和标普500的投资者来说不是好兆头（苹果对这两个指数的价值做出了很大贡献），而且投资者也应该感到警惕，在苹果股价下一轮下跌时谨慎或者暂停盲目买入。</p><p>根据公开数据，全球大约有63万家上市公司。因此，在目前阶段对苹果的估值持怀疑态度是可以的，因为它肯定不是投资者唯一的选择。</p><p>接下来，让我们来看看苹果的估值。</p><p><b>评估苹果公司</b></p><p>自9年前蒂姆•库克接任苹果公司CEO以来，该公司在基本业务发展方面取得了重大进展。具体来说，苹果一直在实现收入多元化，从传统产品领域（iPhone、iPad、Mac）转向可穿戴设备和服务等高增长领域。</p><p>如今，可穿戴设备和服务在苹果的业务中占据了相当大的比重，预计它们将成为苹果公司未来收入和自由现金流增长的主要推动力。此外，苹果现在有几个非常重要的垂直市场，因此为了真正评估苹果，我们必须从整体的角度来评估它，从而消除它目前的潜在的多元化折扣。</p><p>为了评估每个细分市场（传统产品线如iPhone + Mac + iPad，可穿戴设备和服务）的公允价值，我们将对其进行估值。</p><p>苹果公司过去12个月的分类营收如下（以百万计）:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e305739ece8f4e5814543b42d567f3\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"242\"></p><p>现在，让我们看看这些收入部分的重新分类以及每个业务的某些假设。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b05f22d396d27ab41dfba77139b9fd\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"521\"></p><p>与上述假设有关的注释:</p><ul><li>苹果的毛利率显示其产品利润率为35%，服务利润率为65%。因此，传统产品系列(20%)、可穿戴设备(25%)和服务(40%)的FCF利润率潜力存在差异。</li><li>TTM流动资金每股计算中使用的已发行普通股为174.2亿股。</li><li>FCF增长率假设来自苹果高层提供的长期指导。</li></ul><p>在定义了苹果各个业务部门可能产生的保守现金流之后，我们可以轻松地对这些业务进行估值，并预测未来的股价（10年）。</p><p>根据我们的假设，苹果的公允价值是每股108.33美元，也就是1.887万亿美元。现在，为了得出总预期收益，我们首先将每个业务部门的每股FCF与对应的增长率假设相结合，然后将结果与价格与FCF比率的假设相乘，从而得出2030年的股价价值。</p><p><b>最终得出，到2030年，苹果的股票价值可能达到313美元。</b>因此，如果一个投资者以今天115美元的价格购买，他/她可以期望在未来10年左右仅通过股价升值就能产生10.53%的价格复合年收益率。</p><p>然而，我们知道苹果是一个派息型的股票。目前，苹果公司的年度股息为每股0.82美元，我们预计苹果将保持其现金股息率在20%左右。</p><p>从而得出，苹果在没有再投资和再投资情况下的总预期复合年收益率分别为11.02%和11.27%。这一回报率仅略高于9.8%的投资回报率(这是标普500指数90年的年化回报率)，因此，我们认为，苹果在未来十年不会明显跑赢大盘。除非一场大范围的市场回调让苹果的收益率跌至90年代，否则我们不会盲目买入。</p><p><b>总结</b></p><p>我们一贯把苹果公司看作是20世纪中期的通用电气公司，因为我们相信，在未来的几十年里，苹果公司将取得丰硕的发展，股东们也将迎来繁荣。</p><p>话虽如此，在许多市场参与者眼中，苹果已成为明显的赢家，其风险已变得非常低，因此其回报也相应地变得很低。</p><p>因此，如果有投资者希望大幅跑赢大盘，我们认为在苹果下一轮的下跌中，低于115美元才可以考虑买入。但如果投资者是股息爱好者，我们建议买入并长期持有苹果。</p>","source":"lsy1586862168255","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果将迎来一个平庸的十年，谨慎“逢低买入”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-13 19:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xvBFYcTUzRB9Yrr68pGehw><strong>猛兽财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近几个月来，我们目睹了苹果股票在拆分后的大幅上涨，这将其估值推到了几乎前所未有的水平。虽然从历史上看，在股价下跌时买入苹果股票是明智的做法，但这次股价下跌可能会让投资者获得更多资本。在这篇文章中，我们将评估苹果公司未来十年的投资回报率，以阐明我们的观点：对于那些希望大幅跑赢大盘的投资者，我们建议对苹果公司保持谨慎，在不高于115美元的位置买入为宜；对于偏好股息增长型投资者，我们认为可以买入并长期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xvBFYcTUzRB9Yrr68pGehw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b481c400567d1498c29f419f60bae782","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xvBFYcTUzRB9Yrr68pGehw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148943597","content_text":"近几个月来，我们目睹了苹果股票在拆分后的大幅上涨，这将其估值推到了几乎前所未有的水平。虽然从历史上看，在股价下跌时买入苹果股票是明智的做法，但这次股价下跌可能会让投资者获得更多资本。在这篇文章中，我们将评估苹果公司未来十年的投资回报率，以阐明我们的观点：对于那些希望大幅跑赢大盘的投资者，我们建议对苹果公司保持谨慎，在不高于115美元的位置买入为宜；对于偏好股息增长型投资者，我们认为可以买入并长期持有苹果公司。众所周知，目前苹果的估值相较于历史大幅膨胀，这是否会导致它未来进入平庸的十年？还是目前是投资者逢低买入的时机？苹果公司的投资者们在2020年获得了丰厚的回报，赚得盆满钵满。今年迄今为止，苹果股票的涨幅高达55%。这一举动恰恰凸显了为什么苹果是只可以持有而不可以交易的股票。为此，“逢低买入”是苹果公司经得起时间考验的投资策略。9月初，苹果股价创下历史新高，随后下跌了近20%。很多投资者发出了疑问——应该买入苹果股票吗？在本文中，我们将回顾历史上对苹果股票“逢低买入”的结果，并重新全面评估苹果公司。之前我们曾将苹果的可穿戴设备和服务业务作为独立业务进行评估，今天我们将重新提供一个评估。根据我们此前的评估，苹果的每股价值是108美元，也就是说，目前苹果被高估了。由于最终计算的预期回报率仅略高于我们的投资最低预期回报率，我们当前选择观望，并建议投资者避免或者谨慎地在此轮下跌时买入。苹果过去成功的“逢低买入”策略在过去的20年里，在市场回调15~20%时买入苹果公司的股票，是一种非常非常成功的投资策略。苹果在2020年9月1日创下历史新高137.98美元后，然后在过去一个月下跌了约15~20%。因此，如果历史走势可以借鉴，投资者现在应该买进苹果股票。不过，我们现在不确定是否要买苹果的股票，因为它的估值仍然偏高（即使在修正之后），而且预期回报率仅略高于我们的投资预期回报率。除了iPhone发布的那段时间，苹果公司的估值从未如此之高。这不仅对QQQ和标普500的投资者来说不是好兆头（苹果对这两个指数的价值做出了很大贡献），而且投资者也应该感到警惕，在苹果股价下一轮下跌时谨慎或者暂停盲目买入。根据公开数据，全球大约有63万家上市公司。因此，在目前阶段对苹果的估值持怀疑态度是可以的，因为它肯定不是投资者唯一的选择。接下来，让我们来看看苹果的估值。评估苹果公司自9年前蒂姆•库克接任苹果公司CEO以来，该公司在基本业务发展方面取得了重大进展。具体来说，苹果一直在实现收入多元化，从传统产品领域（iPhone、iPad、Mac）转向可穿戴设备和服务等高增长领域。如今，可穿戴设备和服务在苹果的业务中占据了相当大的比重，预计它们将成为苹果公司未来收入和自由现金流增长的主要推动力。此外，苹果现在有几个非常重要的垂直市场，因此为了真正评估苹果，我们必须从整体的角度来评估它，从而消除它目前的潜在的多元化折扣。为了评估每个细分市场（传统产品线如iPhone + Mac + iPad，可穿戴设备和服务）的公允价值，我们将对其进行估值。苹果公司过去12个月的分类营收如下（以百万计）:现在，让我们看看这些收入部分的重新分类以及每个业务的某些假设。与上述假设有关的注释:苹果的毛利率显示其产品利润率为35%，服务利润率为65%。因此，传统产品系列(20%)、可穿戴设备(25%)和服务(40%)的FCF利润率潜力存在差异。TTM流动资金每股计算中使用的已发行普通股为174.2亿股。FCF增长率假设来自苹果高层提供的长期指导。在定义了苹果各个业务部门可能产生的保守现金流之后，我们可以轻松地对这些业务进行估值，并预测未来的股价（10年）。根据我们的假设，苹果的公允价值是每股108.33美元，也就是1.887万亿美元。现在，为了得出总预期收益，我们首先将每个业务部门的每股FCF与对应的增长率假设相结合，然后将结果与价格与FCF比率的假设相乘，从而得出2030年的股价价值。最终得出，到2030年，苹果的股票价值可能达到313美元。因此，如果一个投资者以今天115美元的价格购买，他/她可以期望在未来10年左右仅通过股价升值就能产生10.53%的价格复合年收益率。然而，我们知道苹果是一个派息型的股票。目前，苹果公司的年度股息为每股0.82美元，我们预计苹果将保持其现金股息率在20%左右。从而得出，苹果在没有再投资和再投资情况下的总预期复合年收益率分别为11.02%和11.27%。这一回报率仅略高于9.8%的投资回报率(这是标普500指数90年的年化回报率)，因此，我们认为，苹果在未来十年不会明显跑赢大盘。除非一场大范围的市场回调让苹果的收益率跌至90年代，否则我们不会盲目买入。总结我们一贯把苹果公司看作是20世纪中期的通用电气公司，因为我们相信，在未来的几十年里，苹果公司将取得丰硕的发展，股东们也将迎来繁荣。话虽如此，在许多市场参与者眼中，苹果已成为明显的赢家，其风险已变得非常低，因此其回报也相应地变得很低。因此，如果有投资者希望大幅跑赢大盘，我们认为在苹果下一轮的下跌中，低于115美元才可以考虑买入。但如果投资者是股息爱好者，我们建议买入并长期持有苹果。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979306341,"gmtCreate":1597993854183,"gmtModify":1704217537437,"author":{"id":"3434060058836577","authorId":"3434060058836577","name":"无水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2287e519d29950ceac7d8e93d63037f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434060058836577","authorIdStr":"3434060058836577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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19:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果将迎来一个平庸的十年，谨慎“逢低买入”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148943597","media":"猛兽财经","summary":"近几个月来，我们目睹了苹果股票在拆分后的大幅上涨，这将其估值推到了几乎前所未有的水平。虽然从历史上看，在股价下跌时买入苹果股票是明智的做法，但这次股价下跌可能会让投资者获得更多资本。在这篇文章中，我们","content":"<p>近几个月来，我们目睹了苹果股票在拆分后的大幅上涨，这将其估值推到了几乎前所未有的水平。</p><p>虽然从历史上看，在股价下跌时买入苹果股票是明智的做法，但这次股价下跌可能会让投资者获得更多资本。</p><p>在这篇文章中，我们将评估苹果公司未来十年的投资回报率，以阐明我们的观点：对于那些希望大幅跑赢大盘的投资者，我们建议对苹果公司保持谨慎，在不高于115美元的位置买入为宜；对于偏好股息增长型投资者，我们认为可以买入并长期持有苹果公司。</p><p>众所周知，目前苹果的估值相较于历史大幅膨胀，这是否会导致它未来进入平庸的十年？还是目前是投资者逢低买入的时机？</p><p>苹果公司的投资者们在2020年获得了丰厚的回报，赚得盆满钵满。今年迄今为止，苹果股票的涨幅高达55%。这一举动恰恰凸显了为什么苹果是只可以持有而不可以交易的股票。为此，“逢低买入”是苹果公司经得起时间考验的投资策略。9月初，苹果股价创下历史新高，随后下跌了近20%。很多投资者发出了疑问——应该买入苹果股票吗？</p><p>在本文中，我们将回顾历史上对苹果股票“逢低买入”的结果，并重新全面评估苹果公司。之前我们曾将苹果的可穿戴设备和服务业务作为独立业务进行评估，今天我们将重新提供一个评估。</p><p>根据我们此前的评估，苹果的每股价值是108美元，也就是说，目前苹果被高估了。由于最终计算的预期回报率仅略高于我们的投资最低预期回报率，我们当前选择观望，并建议投资者避免或者谨慎地在此轮下跌时买入。</p><p><b>苹果过去成功的“逢低买入”策略</b></p><p>在过去的20年里，在市场回调15~20%时买入苹果公司的股票，是一种非常非常成功的投资策略。</p><p>苹果在2020年9月1日创下历史新高137.98美元后，然后在过去一个月下跌了约15~20%。因此，如果历史走势可以借鉴，投资者现在应该买进苹果股票。<b>不过，我们现在不确定是否要买苹果的股票</b>，因为它的估值仍然偏高（即使在修正之后），而且预期回报率仅略高于我们的投资预期回报率。</p><p>除了iPhone发布的那段时间，苹果公司的估值从未如此之高。这不仅对QQQ和标普500的投资者来说不是好兆头（苹果对这两个指数的价值做出了很大贡献），而且投资者也应该感到警惕，在苹果股价下一轮下跌时谨慎或者暂停盲目买入。</p><p>根据公开数据，全球大约有63万家上市公司。因此，在目前阶段对苹果的估值持怀疑态度是可以的，因为它肯定不是投资者唯一的选择。</p><p>接下来，让我们来看看苹果的估值。</p><p><b>评估苹果公司</b></p><p>自9年前蒂姆•库克接任苹果公司CEO以来，该公司在基本业务发展方面取得了重大进展。具体来说，苹果一直在实现收入多元化，从传统产品领域（iPhone、iPad、Mac）转向可穿戴设备和服务等高增长领域。</p><p>如今，可穿戴设备和服务在苹果的业务中占据了相当大的比重，预计它们将成为苹果公司未来收入和自由现金流增长的主要推动力。此外，苹果现在有几个非常重要的垂直市场，因此为了真正评估苹果，我们必须从整体的角度来评估它，从而消除它目前的潜在的多元化折扣。</p><p>为了评估每个细分市场（传统产品线如iPhone + Mac + iPad，可穿戴设备和服务）的公允价值，我们将对其进行估值。</p><p>苹果公司过去12个月的分类营收如下（以百万计）:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e305739ece8f4e5814543b42d567f3\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"242\"></p><p>现在，让我们看看这些收入部分的重新分类以及每个业务的某些假设。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b05f22d396d27ab41dfba77139b9fd\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"521\"></p><p>与上述假设有关的注释:</p><ul><li>苹果的毛利率显示其产品利润率为35%，服务利润率为65%。因此，传统产品系列(20%)、可穿戴设备(25%)和服务(40%)的FCF利润率潜力存在差异。</li><li>TTM流动资金每股计算中使用的已发行普通股为174.2亿股。</li><li>FCF增长率假设来自苹果高层提供的长期指导。</li></ul><p>在定义了苹果各个业务部门可能产生的保守现金流之后，我们可以轻松地对这些业务进行估值，并预测未来的股价（10年）。</p><p>根据我们的假设，苹果的公允价值是每股108.33美元，也就是1.887万亿美元。现在，为了得出总预期收益，我们首先将每个业务部门的每股FCF与对应的增长率假设相结合，然后将结果与价格与FCF比率的假设相乘，从而得出2030年的股价价值。</p><p><b>最终得出，到2030年，苹果的股票价值可能达到313美元。</b>因此，如果一个投资者以今天115美元的价格购买，他/她可以期望在未来10年左右仅通过股价升值就能产生10.53%的价格复合年收益率。</p><p>然而，我们知道苹果是一个派息型的股票。目前，苹果公司的年度股息为每股0.82美元，我们预计苹果将保持其现金股息率在20%左右。</p><p>从而得出，苹果在没有再投资和再投资情况下的总预期复合年收益率分别为11.02%和11.27%。这一回报率仅略高于9.8%的投资回报率(这是标普500指数90年的年化回报率)，因此，我们认为，苹果在未来十年不会明显跑赢大盘。除非一场大范围的市场回调让苹果的收益率跌至90年代，否则我们不会盲目买入。</p><p><b>总结</b></p><p>我们一贯把苹果公司看作是20世纪中期的通用电气公司，因为我们相信，在未来的几十年里，苹果公司将取得丰硕的发展，股东们也将迎来繁荣。</p><p>话虽如此，在许多市场参与者眼中，苹果已成为明显的赢家，其风险已变得非常低，因此其回报也相应地变得很低。</p><p>因此，如果有投资者希望大幅跑赢大盘，我们认为在苹果下一轮的下跌中，低于115美元才可以考虑买入。但如果投资者是股息爱好者，我们建议买入并长期持有苹果。</p>","source":"lsy1586862168255","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果将迎来一个平庸的十年，谨慎“逢低买入”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-13 19:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xvBFYcTUzRB9Yrr68pGehw><strong>猛兽财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近几个月来，我们目睹了苹果股票在拆分后的大幅上涨，这将其估值推到了几乎前所未有的水平。虽然从历史上看，在股价下跌时买入苹果股票是明智的做法，但这次股价下跌可能会让投资者获得更多资本。在这篇文章中，我们将评估苹果公司未来十年的投资回报率，以阐明我们的观点：对于那些希望大幅跑赢大盘的投资者，我们建议对苹果公司保持谨慎，在不高于115美元的位置买入为宜；对于偏好股息增长型投资者，我们认为可以买入并长期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xvBFYcTUzRB9Yrr68pGehw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b481c400567d1498c29f419f60bae782","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xvBFYcTUzRB9Yrr68pGehw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148943597","content_text":"近几个月来，我们目睹了苹果股票在拆分后的大幅上涨，这将其估值推到了几乎前所未有的水平。虽然从历史上看，在股价下跌时买入苹果股票是明智的做法，但这次股价下跌可能会让投资者获得更多资本。在这篇文章中，我们将评估苹果公司未来十年的投资回报率，以阐明我们的观点：对于那些希望大幅跑赢大盘的投资者，我们建议对苹果公司保持谨慎，在不高于115美元的位置买入为宜；对于偏好股息增长型投资者，我们认为可以买入并长期持有苹果公司。众所周知，目前苹果的估值相较于历史大幅膨胀，这是否会导致它未来进入平庸的十年？还是目前是投资者逢低买入的时机？苹果公司的投资者们在2020年获得了丰厚的回报，赚得盆满钵满。今年迄今为止，苹果股票的涨幅高达55%。这一举动恰恰凸显了为什么苹果是只可以持有而不可以交易的股票。为此，“逢低买入”是苹果公司经得起时间考验的投资策略。9月初，苹果股价创下历史新高，随后下跌了近20%。很多投资者发出了疑问——应该买入苹果股票吗？在本文中，我们将回顾历史上对苹果股票“逢低买入”的结果，并重新全面评估苹果公司。之前我们曾将苹果的可穿戴设备和服务业务作为独立业务进行评估，今天我们将重新提供一个评估。根据我们此前的评估，苹果的每股价值是108美元，也就是说，目前苹果被高估了。由于最终计算的预期回报率仅略高于我们的投资最低预期回报率，我们当前选择观望，并建议投资者避免或者谨慎地在此轮下跌时买入。苹果过去成功的“逢低买入”策略在过去的20年里，在市场回调15~20%时买入苹果公司的股票，是一种非常非常成功的投资策略。苹果在2020年9月1日创下历史新高137.98美元后，然后在过去一个月下跌了约15~20%。因此，如果历史走势可以借鉴，投资者现在应该买进苹果股票。不过，我们现在不确定是否要买苹果的股票，因为它的估值仍然偏高（即使在修正之后），而且预期回报率仅略高于我们的投资预期回报率。除了iPhone发布的那段时间，苹果公司的估值从未如此之高。这不仅对QQQ和标普500的投资者来说不是好兆头（苹果对这两个指数的价值做出了很大贡献），而且投资者也应该感到警惕，在苹果股价下一轮下跌时谨慎或者暂停盲目买入。根据公开数据，全球大约有63万家上市公司。因此，在目前阶段对苹果的估值持怀疑态度是可以的，因为它肯定不是投资者唯一的选择。接下来，让我们来看看苹果的估值。评估苹果公司自9年前蒂姆•库克接任苹果公司CEO以来，该公司在基本业务发展方面取得了重大进展。具体来说，苹果一直在实现收入多元化，从传统产品领域（iPhone、iPad、Mac）转向可穿戴设备和服务等高增长领域。如今，可穿戴设备和服务在苹果的业务中占据了相当大的比重，预计它们将成为苹果公司未来收入和自由现金流增长的主要推动力。此外，苹果现在有几个非常重要的垂直市场，因此为了真正评估苹果，我们必须从整体的角度来评估它，从而消除它目前的潜在的多元化折扣。为了评估每个细分市场（传统产品线如iPhone + Mac + iPad，可穿戴设备和服务）的公允价值，我们将对其进行估值。苹果公司过去12个月的分类营收如下（以百万计）:现在，让我们看看这些收入部分的重新分类以及每个业务的某些假设。与上述假设有关的注释:苹果的毛利率显示其产品利润率为35%，服务利润率为65%。因此，传统产品系列(20%)、可穿戴设备(25%)和服务(40%)的FCF利润率潜力存在差异。TTM流动资金每股计算中使用的已发行普通股为174.2亿股。FCF增长率假设来自苹果高层提供的长期指导。在定义了苹果各个业务部门可能产生的保守现金流之后，我们可以轻松地对这些业务进行估值，并预测未来的股价（10年）。根据我们的假设，苹果的公允价值是每股108.33美元，也就是1.887万亿美元。现在，为了得出总预期收益，我们首先将每个业务部门的每股FCF与对应的增长率假设相结合，然后将结果与价格与FCF比率的假设相乘，从而得出2030年的股价价值。最终得出，到2030年，苹果的股票价值可能达到313美元。因此，如果一个投资者以今天115美元的价格购买，他/她可以期望在未来10年左右仅通过股价升值就能产生10.53%的价格复合年收益率。然而，我们知道苹果是一个派息型的股票。目前，苹果公司的年度股息为每股0.82美元，我们预计苹果将保持其现金股息率在20%左右。从而得出，苹果在没有再投资和再投资情况下的总预期复合年收益率分别为11.02%和11.27%。这一回报率仅略高于9.8%的投资回报率(这是标普500指数90年的年化回报率)，因此，我们认为，苹果在未来十年不会明显跑赢大盘。除非一场大范围的市场回调让苹果的收益率跌至90年代，否则我们不会盲目买入。总结我们一贯把苹果公司看作是20世纪中期的通用电气公司，因为我们相信，在未来的几十年里，苹果公司将取得丰硕的发展，股东们也将迎来繁荣。话虽如此，在许多市场参与者眼中，苹果已成为明显的赢家，其风险已变得非常低，因此其回报也相应地变得很低。因此，如果有投资者希望大幅跑赢大盘，我们认为在苹果下一轮的下跌中，低于115美元才可以考虑买入。但如果投资者是股息爱好者，我们建议买入并长期持有苹果。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":921859104,"gmtCreate":1586246966008,"gmtModify":1704360491761,"author":{"id":"3434060058836577","authorId":"3434060058836577","name":"无水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2287e519d29950ceac7d8e93d63037f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3434060058836577","authorIdStr":"3434060058836577"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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