huanxi的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2020-07-17

$蔚来(NIO)$所以资本市场是靠这几个diao投行说了算？赌场是他们家开的？搞笑

2019-11-13

$蔚来(NIO)$ 空头赶紧把价格打下来啊！我等着接！

2021-08-09

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$作恶

2021-03-20

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-29

#draftkings

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-26

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

如果全面关停课外培训班会怎么样？

2021-04-12

[哟哟]

@消金界:腾讯背书下股价依然腰斩，移卡2020年净利暴涨只是玩“财技”？

2021-04-10

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-09

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

NIO and Other Chinese EV Stocks Are Struggling. Don’t Blame Wall Street.

2021-02-27

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@交易员Owen:为什么这次跳水不简单，深入聊聊美债，美股和通胀的关系

2021-02-10

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-06

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@孟浩:财报超预期，为何Unity不涨反跌？

2021-01-29

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@巴伦周刊:散户继续反围剿华尔街之狼，谁在GameStop逼空战中躺赢和躺枪

2021-01-08

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Zoom: Will Surprise Your Portfolio In 2021, Multifaceted Growth Ahead

2020-12-16

[微笑]

硬核拆解Sea：新生代"阿里+腾讯+美团"的估值逻辑

2020-12-10

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@房东经济学:今年最火的一位女股神

2020-12-09

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非农就业远低预期，为何美股屡创新高

2020-12-07

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

多只美股将迎30-40％暴跌大量企业董事已提前抛售离场

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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RNA（修饰的RNA），新冠疫情的爆发让Moderna这样的创业公司在短时间内将mRNA疫苗推向市场并取得了巨大的商业成功。</p>\n<p>基因检测公司因纳美（Illumina）是SMIT当前的第二大重仓股，占比为6.3%，而在去年年报中，因纳美占比为5.8%。从莫德纳和因纳美这前两大重仓股来看，柏基投资当前高度押注于基因赛道。</p>\n<p>SMIT坚持组合投资风格，其前十大重仓股占比为43.6%，分别是莫德纳、因纳美、阿斯麦、特斯拉、腾讯、蔚来汽车、快递超人、美团、阿里巴巴和亚马逊。细分来看，全球超级成长股“捕手”柏基投资的重仓股分别处于基因、芯片、电动车、游戏和社交媒体、外卖和电商等六大热门赛道。本期券商中国·投资小红书复盘莫德纳和因纳美等公司股票走势，用SMIT基金经理等的视角，来观察下一个十年存在哪些巨大的投资机会。</p>\n<p>基因赛道：颠覆医疗，下一个比肩互联网企业的指数级机会</p>\n<p>莫德纳成为柏基投资减持特斯拉后押注的最新赢家。截至今年8月31日，莫德纳成为SMIT的第一大重仓股，仓位占比为8.7%，莫德纳取代了特斯拉曾经的第一重仓股位置。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d595c9e5e6e23972f8d8c5a67647cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">受益于新一代新冠疫苗的研发成功，莫德纳自2020年以来涨幅高达15倍。莫德纳的最新市值1256亿美元，市值规模比肩百时美施贵宝、赛诺菲和安进等老牌医药公司。</p>\n<p>在医药服务领域，后起之秀莫德纳的财务数据可谓达到了史前级别的数字。最新发布的财务报表显示，这家企业今年第二季度收入44亿美元，远超去年同期的6700万美元；今年前六个月盈利40亿美元，去年上半年则亏损2.4亿美元。根据该公司公布的最新业绩指引，2021年预计新冠疫苗可供应8-10亿剂，而2022年大概可供应20到30亿剂，2022年新冠疫苗贡献的营收有望达到400亿-600亿美金。</p>\n<p>SMIT的共同基金经理汤姆·斯莱特在2020年年报中认为，莫德纳在医疗领域的技术应用将是下个十年最令人兴奋的投资机会，莫德纳因为新冠RNA疫苗家喻户晓，但mRNA技术有更广泛的用途，莫德纳类似软件公司，它通过编写人体细胞的RNA代码达到治疗目的，该公司旨在解决更广泛的应用，提高其临床阶段到商业极端的成功几率做充足的准备。</p>\n<p>SMIT的共同基金经理詹姆斯·安德森认为，莫德纳在实验室里甚至没有相关病毒的情况下可以生产出疫苗这件事令人震惊。人们以为莫德纳只是新冠疫苗带来的奇迹，但这是对莫德纳所面临长期机会的巨大误解，莫德纳在人类健康的四大杀手——自体免疫系统疾病、心血管疾病、癌症和流行病等治疗领域有巨大的领导潜力。</p>\n<p>莫德纳名字的含义是Modified RNA（修饰的RNA）。新冠疫情的爆发给了Moderna这样的创业公司在短时间内将mRNA疫苗推向市场的可能，并以此促进整个药物研发领域朝着mRNA治疗方向发展。分析人士认为，从1960年mRNA首次被成功提取，到60年后的今天科学界通过改造mRNA得到具有划时代意义的新冠mRNA疫苗，这项技术正以人们意想不到的速度发挥着巨大的意义。</p>\n<p>特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克年初也曾说道：“医学的未来是mRNA，基本上你可以使用mRNA治愈一切。它就像一个电脑程序，你可以对其进行编程以执行所需的任何操作。你甚至都可以变成蝴蝶。”</p>\n<p>SMIT的第二大重仓股是基因测序仪器生产厂商因纳美，因纳美和莫德纳的仓位占比合计超过15%。</p>\n<p>就整个基因赛道来说，詹姆斯·安德森认为，从美国市场来看，当前医疗领域的投资机会非常具有吸引力，某种意义上来说，基因测序成本的塌陷式巨降和机器学习与人工智能指数级增长相结合被用于医疗服务，这个趋势不可避免，前沿的应用已经开始转化为医疗服务中的实际收入。</p>\n<p>芯片赛道：人工智能和自动驾驶时代到来都加剧了芯片的短缺</p>\n<p>阿斯麦是SMIT的第三大重仓股，仓位占比为5.9%。由于芯片荒的蔓延，阿斯麦今年暴涨近50%。该公司当前的市值是3000亿美金，动态市盈率为50倍。</p>\n<p>在詹姆斯·安德森看来，阿斯麦无疑是互联网、大数据和自动驾驶时代最重要的公司，阿斯麦就是半导体制造业的平板印刷系统，离开阿斯麦，摩尔定律将无从存在，阿斯麦具有垄断地位。</p>\n<p>“半导体芯片无论短期还是长期都是紧缺的，无论是AI还是自动驾驶都加剧了半导体芯片的紧缺程度。阿斯麦是保证世界运行的重要公司，其股价也因此而上升，这点未来将更加清晰。”詹姆斯·安德森说。</p>\n<p>电动车赛道：特斯拉的竞争力长期依然突出</p>\n<p>在去年暴涨7倍的基础上，特斯拉今年再度上涨15%。在SMIT的2020年半年报中，特斯拉仍是的第一大重仓股，仓位占比为12%；在2020年的年报中，特斯拉已经降低为SMIT的第五大重仓股，仓位占比为5%；截至今年8月31日，特斯拉的仓位占比进一步减少至4.3%。</p>\n<p>汤姆·斯莱特表示，为了保持投资组合的合理分散和专注于更有潜力的回报之处，在过去一年的时间中卖掉了约80%的特斯拉仓位，但特斯拉未来很长时期内竞争力依然突出。如果特斯拉能够依靠人工智能实现绝大部分自动驾驶，特斯拉的竞争力会更大。</p>\n<p><b>汤姆·斯莱特还认为，特斯拉依靠品质的不断升级和产量扩大成为领头羊，其它公司都是跟随者。</b></p>\n<p>游戏和社交媒体赛道：腾讯被大幅低估</p>\n<p>腾讯是SMIT的第五大重仓股。由于受监管政策的影响，腾讯今年以来跌幅近15%。腾讯控股当前的市值为46000亿港币，动态市盈率已经跌至20倍。</p>\n<p>詹姆斯·安德森认为，腾讯在游戏产业的布局是十分令人瞩目的，并远超美国同行，SMIT预期，在下一个五年，腾讯游戏产业的收入将从200亿美元上升到500亿美元，利润率将仍保持在40%不变。腾讯现在7300亿美元的市值仅仅反应了其游戏产业的利润，微信与其它资产相当于白送。</p>\n<p>“腾讯还是最好的资本再分配公司，拥有美团20%的股权、拥有特斯拉12%的股权、拥有Snap公司12%的股权。这些仅仅是部分案例，腾讯还对其所投资公司发挥着卓越的引导作用。腾讯的市值在市场情绪恐惧之下被大大低估。”</p>\n<p>詹姆斯·安德森表示，腾讯的游戏产业支撑了其未来的市值，它的游戏产业甚至比以前更强大，腾讯今年有40款游戏，与美国科技平台公司相比，腾讯的估值更有吸引力，腾讯在云方面的充分布局，是其未来的一大增长点。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>外卖赛道：餐饮的高频需求是理解外卖赛道的关键</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>SMIT看好外卖赛道，其第七大重仓股是外卖超人，仓位占比为2.9%，第八大重仓股是美团，仓位占比是2.8%。</p>\n<p>汤姆·斯莱特认为，人们越来越习惯于在家中收到更多的商品，外卖公司的速度和效率会随着外卖商品的规模扩大、外卖商品的品类与服务的迅速增加而能力倍增。美团和东南亚的外卖超人都从餐饮扩张到百货和其它便利产品，美国的Doordash外卖公司业务也在做相似的扩展。</p>\n<p>詹姆斯·安德森认为，当人们意识到餐饮对于线下需求的重要性和高频次，市场就能理解外卖公司的边界可以拓展到百货和其它当地物品，假以时日，人们将会意识到外卖是非常好的商业模式，拥有比人们此前预想的还要大很多的市场。外卖超人这家公司正在杀入百货和其它必需品的配送，这家公司在未来十年复合增速仍将达到30%-40%，毛利率将在50%以上。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>电商赛道：亚马逊仍面临一系列广泛的机会</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>SMIT的第九和第十大仓位分别是阿里巴巴和亚马逊，仓位占比分别是2.8%和2.7%。</p>\n<p>汤姆·斯莱特认为， SMIT卖出了脸书和谷歌，也减仓了亚马逊，尽管这些公司能产生巨额的现金流，并且快速增长，但是对SMIT来说，它们的问题是如何分配资源，并在如此大的体量上进一步成长。亚马逊依然面临一系列最广泛的机会，但是贝佐斯从CEO的位置上离任，可能让公司减少了开拓创新的闯劲，对此要抱有警惕。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>减持特斯拉、亚马逊，成长股超级\"捕手\"瞄准基因赛道 </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n减持特斯拉、亚马逊，成长股超级\"捕手\"瞄准基因赛道 \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-10-17 09:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>“真正的投资者应该以十年为单位，而不是以季度为单位来思考投资。”这是全球超级成长股“捕手”柏基投资（Baillie Gifford）所信奉的投资哲学。</p>\n<p>柏基的投资策略是长期全球成长策略（Long Term,Globle Growth,简称LTGG），就是在全球范围内挖掘并长期投资于最具竞争力、创新性和成长效率的优质企业，持仓周期为五年以上。</p>\n<p><b>SMIT（Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust）正是柏基投资的旗舰产品，成立于1909年，过去十年取得了933%的投资收益。从这只产品所公布最新的前十大重仓股来看，在持有特斯拉七年浮盈近十倍后，SMIT在2020年下半年已经卖出了约八成的特斯拉仓位，也大幅削减了其从2004年就开始陪跑的亚马逊，还清空了对脸书和谷歌的持仓。</b></p>\n<p>取而代之的是，SMIT一路加仓基因赛道的头部公司。截至今年8月31日，莫德纳（Moderna）已经跃居SMIT的第一大重仓股，仓位占比为8.7%（接近顶格持有），在2020年年报中，SMIT首次出现在莫德纳前十大重仓股中，占比仅为3.5%。莫德纳名字背后的含义是Modified RNA（修饰的RNA），新冠疫情的爆发让Moderna这样的创业公司在短时间内将mRNA疫苗推向市场并取得了巨大的商业成功。</p>\n<p>基因检测公司因纳美（Illumina）是SMIT当前的第二大重仓股，占比为6.3%，而在去年年报中，因纳美占比为5.8%。从莫德纳和因纳美这前两大重仓股来看，柏基投资当前高度押注于基因赛道。</p>\n<p>SMIT坚持组合投资风格，其前十大重仓股占比为43.6%，分别是莫德纳、因纳美、阿斯麦、特斯拉、腾讯、蔚来汽车、快递超人、美团、阿里巴巴和亚马逊。细分来看，全球超级成长股“捕手”柏基投资的重仓股分别处于基因、芯片、电动车、游戏和社交媒体、外卖和电商等六大热门赛道。本期券商中国·投资小红书复盘莫德纳和因纳美等公司股票走势，用SMIT基金经理等的视角，来观察下一个十年存在哪些巨大的投资机会。</p>\n<p>基因赛道：颠覆医疗，下一个比肩互联网企业的指数级机会</p>\n<p>莫德纳成为柏基投资减持特斯拉后押注的最新赢家。截至今年8月31日，莫德纳成为SMIT的第一大重仓股，仓位占比为8.7%，莫德纳取代了特斯拉曾经的第一重仓股位置。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9d595c9e5e6e23972f8d8c5a67647cd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">受益于新一代新冠疫苗的研发成功，莫德纳自2020年以来涨幅高达15倍。莫德纳的最新市值1256亿美元，市值规模比肩百时美施贵宝、赛诺菲和安进等老牌医药公司。</p>\n<p>在医药服务领域，后起之秀莫德纳的财务数据可谓达到了史前级别的数字。最新发布的财务报表显示，这家企业今年第二季度收入44亿美元，远超去年同期的6700万美元；今年前六个月盈利40亿美元，去年上半年则亏损2.4亿美元。根据该公司公布的最新业绩指引，2021年预计新冠疫苗可供应8-10亿剂，而2022年大概可供应20到30亿剂，2022年新冠疫苗贡献的营收有望达到400亿-600亿美金。</p>\n<p>SMIT的共同基金经理汤姆·斯莱特在2020年年报中认为，莫德纳在医疗领域的技术应用将是下个十年最令人兴奋的投资机会，莫德纳因为新冠RNA疫苗家喻户晓，但mRNA技术有更广泛的用途，莫德纳类似软件公司，它通过编写人体细胞的RNA代码达到治疗目的，该公司旨在解决更广泛的应用，提高其临床阶段到商业极端的成功几率做充足的准备。</p>\n<p>SMIT的共同基金经理詹姆斯·安德森认为，莫德纳在实验室里甚至没有相关病毒的情况下可以生产出疫苗这件事令人震惊。人们以为莫德纳只是新冠疫苗带来的奇迹，但这是对莫德纳所面临长期机会的巨大误解，莫德纳在人类健康的四大杀手——自体免疫系统疾病、心血管疾病、癌症和流行病等治疗领域有巨大的领导潜力。</p>\n<p>莫德纳名字的含义是Modified RNA（修饰的RNA）。新冠疫情的爆发给了Moderna这样的创业公司在短时间内将mRNA疫苗推向市场的可能，并以此促进整个药物研发领域朝着mRNA治疗方向发展。分析人士认为，从1960年mRNA首次被成功提取，到60年后的今天科学界通过改造mRNA得到具有划时代意义的新冠mRNA疫苗，这项技术正以人们意想不到的速度发挥着巨大的意义。</p>\n<p>特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克年初也曾说道：“医学的未来是mRNA，基本上你可以使用mRNA治愈一切。它就像一个电脑程序，你可以对其进行编程以执行所需的任何操作。你甚至都可以变成蝴蝶。”</p>\n<p>SMIT的第二大重仓股是基因测序仪器生产厂商因纳美，因纳美和莫德纳的仓位占比合计超过15%。</p>\n<p>就整个基因赛道来说，詹姆斯·安德森认为，从美国市场来看，当前医疗领域的投资机会非常具有吸引力，某种意义上来说，基因测序成本的塌陷式巨降和机器学习与人工智能指数级增长相结合被用于医疗服务，这个趋势不可避免，前沿的应用已经开始转化为医疗服务中的实际收入。</p>\n<p>芯片赛道：人工智能和自动驾驶时代到来都加剧了芯片的短缺</p>\n<p>阿斯麦是SMIT的第三大重仓股，仓位占比为5.9%。由于芯片荒的蔓延，阿斯麦今年暴涨近50%。该公司当前的市值是3000亿美金，动态市盈率为50倍。</p>\n<p>在詹姆斯·安德森看来，阿斯麦无疑是互联网、大数据和自动驾驶时代最重要的公司，阿斯麦就是半导体制造业的平板印刷系统，离开阿斯麦，摩尔定律将无从存在，阿斯麦具有垄断地位。</p>\n<p>“半导体芯片无论短期还是长期都是紧缺的，无论是AI还是自动驾驶都加剧了半导体芯片的紧缺程度。阿斯麦是保证世界运行的重要公司，其股价也因此而上升，这点未来将更加清晰。”詹姆斯·安德森说。</p>\n<p>电动车赛道：特斯拉的竞争力长期依然突出</p>\n<p>在去年暴涨7倍的基础上，特斯拉今年再度上涨15%。在SMIT的2020年半年报中，特斯拉仍是的第一大重仓股，仓位占比为12%；在2020年的年报中，特斯拉已经降低为SMIT的第五大重仓股，仓位占比为5%；截至今年8月31日，特斯拉的仓位占比进一步减少至4.3%。</p>\n<p>汤姆·斯莱特表示，为了保持投资组合的合理分散和专注于更有潜力的回报之处，在过去一年的时间中卖掉了约80%的特斯拉仓位，但特斯拉未来很长时期内竞争力依然突出。如果特斯拉能够依靠人工智能实现绝大部分自动驾驶，特斯拉的竞争力会更大。</p>\n<p><b>汤姆·斯莱特还认为，特斯拉依靠品质的不断升级和产量扩大成为领头羊，其它公司都是跟随者。</b></p>\n<p>游戏和社交媒体赛道：腾讯被大幅低估</p>\n<p>腾讯是SMIT的第五大重仓股。由于受监管政策的影响，腾讯今年以来跌幅近15%。腾讯控股当前的市值为46000亿港币，动态市盈率已经跌至20倍。</p>\n<p>詹姆斯·安德森认为，腾讯在游戏产业的布局是十分令人瞩目的，并远超美国同行，SMIT预期，在下一个五年，腾讯游戏产业的收入将从200亿美元上升到500亿美元，利润率将仍保持在40%不变。腾讯现在7300亿美元的市值仅仅反应了其游戏产业的利润，微信与其它资产相当于白送。</p>\n<p>“腾讯还是最好的资本再分配公司，拥有美团20%的股权、拥有特斯拉12%的股权、拥有Snap公司12%的股权。这些仅仅是部分案例，腾讯还对其所投资公司发挥着卓越的引导作用。腾讯的市值在市场情绪恐惧之下被大大低估。”</p>\n<p>詹姆斯·安德森表示，腾讯的游戏产业支撑了其未来的市值，它的游戏产业甚至比以前更强大，腾讯今年有40款游戏，与美国科技平台公司相比，腾讯的估值更有吸引力，腾讯在云方面的充分布局，是其未来的一大增长点。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>外卖赛道：餐饮的高频需求是理解外卖赛道的关键</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>SMIT看好外卖赛道，其第七大重仓股是外卖超人，仓位占比为2.9%，第八大重仓股是美团，仓位占比是2.8%。</p>\n<p>汤姆·斯莱特认为，人们越来越习惯于在家中收到更多的商品，外卖公司的速度和效率会随着外卖商品的规模扩大、外卖商品的品类与服务的迅速增加而能力倍增。美团和东南亚的外卖超人都从餐饮扩张到百货和其它便利产品，美国的Doordash外卖公司业务也在做相似的扩展。</p>\n<p>詹姆斯·安德森认为，当人们意识到餐饮对于线下需求的重要性和高频次，市场就能理解外卖公司的边界可以拓展到百货和其它当地物品，假以时日，人们将会意识到外卖是非常好的商业模式，拥有比人们此前预想的还要大很多的市场。外卖超人这家公司正在杀入百货和其它必需品的配送，这家公司在未来十年复合增速仍将达到30%-40%，毛利率将在50%以上。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>电商赛道：亚马逊仍面临一系列广泛的机会</p>\n<p></p>\n<p></p>\n<p>SMIT的第九和第十大仓位分别是阿里巴巴和亚马逊，仓位占比分别是2.8%和2.7%。</p>\n<p>汤姆·斯莱特认为， SMIT卖出了脸书和谷歌，也减仓了亚马逊，尽管这些公司能产生巨额的现金流，并且快速增长，但是对SMIT来说，它们的问题是如何分配资源，并在如此大的体量上进一步成长。亚马逊依然面临一系列最广泛的机会，但是贝佐斯从CEO的位置上离任，可能让公司减少了开拓创新的闯劲，对此要抱有警惕。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ASML":"阿斯麦"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197262526","content_text":"“真正的投资者应该以十年为单位，而不是以季度为单位来思考投资。”这是全球超级成长股“捕手”柏基投资（Baillie Gifford）所信奉的投资哲学。\n柏基的投资策略是长期全球成长策略（Long Term,Globle Growth,简称LTGG），就是在全球范围内挖掘并长期投资于最具竞争力、创新性和成长效率的优质企业，持仓周期为五年以上。\nSMIT（Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust）正是柏基投资的旗舰产品，成立于1909年，过去十年取得了933%的投资收益。从这只产品所公布最新的前十大重仓股来看，在持有特斯拉七年浮盈近十倍后，SMIT在2020年下半年已经卖出了约八成的特斯拉仓位，也大幅削减了其从2004年就开始陪跑的亚马逊，还清空了对脸书和谷歌的持仓。\n取而代之的是，SMIT一路加仓基因赛道的头部公司。截至今年8月31日，莫德纳（Moderna）已经跃居SMIT的第一大重仓股，仓位占比为8.7%（接近顶格持有），在2020年年报中，SMIT首次出现在莫德纳前十大重仓股中，占比仅为3.5%。莫德纳名字背后的含义是Modified RNA（修饰的RNA），新冠疫情的爆发让Moderna这样的创业公司在短时间内将mRNA疫苗推向市场并取得了巨大的商业成功。\n基因检测公司因纳美（Illumina）是SMIT当前的第二大重仓股，占比为6.3%，而在去年年报中，因纳美占比为5.8%。从莫德纳和因纳美这前两大重仓股来看，柏基投资当前高度押注于基因赛道。\nSMIT坚持组合投资风格，其前十大重仓股占比为43.6%，分别是莫德纳、因纳美、阿斯麦、特斯拉、腾讯、蔚来汽车、快递超人、美团、阿里巴巴和亚马逊。细分来看，全球超级成长股“捕手”柏基投资的重仓股分别处于基因、芯片、电动车、游戏和社交媒体、外卖和电商等六大热门赛道。本期券商中国·投资小红书复盘莫德纳和因纳美等公司股票走势，用SMIT基金经理等的视角，来观察下一个十年存在哪些巨大的投资机会。\n基因赛道：颠覆医疗，下一个比肩互联网企业的指数级机会\n莫德纳成为柏基投资减持特斯拉后押注的最新赢家。截至今年8月31日，莫德纳成为SMIT的第一大重仓股，仓位占比为8.7%，莫德纳取代了特斯拉曾经的第一重仓股位置。\n受益于新一代新冠疫苗的研发成功，莫德纳自2020年以来涨幅高达15倍。莫德纳的最新市值1256亿美元，市值规模比肩百时美施贵宝、赛诺菲和安进等老牌医药公司。\n在医药服务领域，后起之秀莫德纳的财务数据可谓达到了史前级别的数字。最新发布的财务报表显示，这家企业今年第二季度收入44亿美元，远超去年同期的6700万美元；今年前六个月盈利40亿美元，去年上半年则亏损2.4亿美元。根据该公司公布的最新业绩指引，2021年预计新冠疫苗可供应8-10亿剂，而2022年大概可供应20到30亿剂，2022年新冠疫苗贡献的营收有望达到400亿-600亿美金。\nSMIT的共同基金经理汤姆·斯莱特在2020年年报中认为，莫德纳在医疗领域的技术应用将是下个十年最令人兴奋的投资机会，莫德纳因为新冠RNA疫苗家喻户晓，但mRNA技术有更广泛的用途，莫德纳类似软件公司，它通过编写人体细胞的RNA代码达到治疗目的，该公司旨在解决更广泛的应用，提高其临床阶段到商业极端的成功几率做充足的准备。\nSMIT的共同基金经理詹姆斯·安德森认为，莫德纳在实验室里甚至没有相关病毒的情况下可以生产出疫苗这件事令人震惊。人们以为莫德纳只是新冠疫苗带来的奇迹，但这是对莫德纳所面临长期机会的巨大误解，莫德纳在人类健康的四大杀手——自体免疫系统疾病、心血管疾病、癌症和流行病等治疗领域有巨大的领导潜力。\n莫德纳名字的含义是Modified RNA（修饰的RNA）。新冠疫情的爆发给了Moderna这样的创业公司在短时间内将mRNA疫苗推向市场的可能，并以此促进整个药物研发领域朝着mRNA治疗方向发展。分析人士认为，从1960年mRNA首次被成功提取，到60年后的今天科学界通过改造mRNA得到具有划时代意义的新冠mRNA疫苗，这项技术正以人们意想不到的速度发挥着巨大的意义。\n特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克年初也曾说道：“医学的未来是mRNA，基本上你可以使用mRNA治愈一切。它就像一个电脑程序，你可以对其进行编程以执行所需的任何操作。你甚至都可以变成蝴蝶。”\nSMIT的第二大重仓股是基因测序仪器生产厂商因纳美，因纳美和莫德纳的仓位占比合计超过15%。\n就整个基因赛道来说，詹姆斯·安德森认为，从美国市场来看，当前医疗领域的投资机会非常具有吸引力，某种意义上来说，基因测序成本的塌陷式巨降和机器学习与人工智能指数级增长相结合被用于医疗服务，这个趋势不可避免，前沿的应用已经开始转化为医疗服务中的实际收入。\n芯片赛道：人工智能和自动驾驶时代到来都加剧了芯片的短缺\n阿斯麦是SMIT的第三大重仓股，仓位占比为5.9%。由于芯片荒的蔓延，阿斯麦今年暴涨近50%。该公司当前的市值是3000亿美金，动态市盈率为50倍。\n在詹姆斯·安德森看来，阿斯麦无疑是互联网、大数据和自动驾驶时代最重要的公司，阿斯麦就是半导体制造业的平板印刷系统，离开阿斯麦，摩尔定律将无从存在，阿斯麦具有垄断地位。\n“半导体芯片无论短期还是长期都是紧缺的，无论是AI还是自动驾驶都加剧了半导体芯片的紧缺程度。阿斯麦是保证世界运行的重要公司，其股价也因此而上升，这点未来将更加清晰。”詹姆斯·安德森说。\n电动车赛道：特斯拉的竞争力长期依然突出\n在去年暴涨7倍的基础上，特斯拉今年再度上涨15%。在SMIT的2020年半年报中，特斯拉仍是的第一大重仓股，仓位占比为12%；在2020年的年报中，特斯拉已经降低为SMIT的第五大重仓股，仓位占比为5%；截至今年8月31日，特斯拉的仓位占比进一步减少至4.3%。\n汤姆·斯莱特表示，为了保持投资组合的合理分散和专注于更有潜力的回报之处，在过去一年的时间中卖掉了约80%的特斯拉仓位，但特斯拉未来很长时期内竞争力依然突出。如果特斯拉能够依靠人工智能实现绝大部分自动驾驶，特斯拉的竞争力会更大。\n汤姆·斯莱特还认为，特斯拉依靠品质的不断升级和产量扩大成为领头羊，其它公司都是跟随者。\n游戏和社交媒体赛道：腾讯被大幅低估\n腾讯是SMIT的第五大重仓股。由于受监管政策的影响，腾讯今年以来跌幅近15%。腾讯控股当前的市值为46000亿港币，动态市盈率已经跌至20倍。\n詹姆斯·安德森认为，腾讯在游戏产业的布局是十分令人瞩目的，并远超美国同行，SMIT预期，在下一个五年，腾讯游戏产业的收入将从200亿美元上升到500亿美元，利润率将仍保持在40%不变。腾讯现在7300亿美元的市值仅仅反应了其游戏产业的利润，微信与其它资产相当于白送。\n“腾讯还是最好的资本再分配公司，拥有美团20%的股权、拥有特斯拉12%的股权、拥有Snap公司12%的股权。这些仅仅是部分案例，腾讯还对其所投资公司发挥着卓越的引导作用。腾讯的市值在市场情绪恐惧之下被大大低估。”\n詹姆斯·安德森表示，腾讯的游戏产业支撑了其未来的市值，它的游戏产业甚至比以前更强大，腾讯今年有40款游戏，与美国科技平台公司相比，腾讯的估值更有吸引力，腾讯在云方面的充分布局，是其未来的一大增长点。\n\n\n外卖赛道：餐饮的高频需求是理解外卖赛道的关键\n\n\nSMIT看好外卖赛道，其第七大重仓股是外卖超人，仓位占比为2.9%，第八大重仓股是美团，仓位占比是2.8%。\n汤姆·斯莱特认为，人们越来越习惯于在家中收到更多的商品，外卖公司的速度和效率会随着外卖商品的规模扩大、外卖商品的品类与服务的迅速增加而能力倍增。美团和东南亚的外卖超人都从餐饮扩张到百货和其它便利产品，美国的Doordash外卖公司业务也在做相似的扩展。\n詹姆斯·安德森认为，当人们意识到餐饮对于线下需求的重要性和高频次，市场就能理解外卖公司的边界可以拓展到百货和其它当地物品，假以时日，人们将会意识到外卖是非常好的商业模式，拥有比人们此前预想的还要大很多的市场。外卖超人这家公司正在杀入百货和其它必需品的配送，这家公司在未来十年复合增速仍将达到30%-40%，毛利率将在50%以上。\n\n\n电商赛道：亚马逊仍面临一系列广泛的机会\n\n\nSMIT的第九和第十大仓位分别是阿里巴巴和亚马逊，仓位占比分别是2.8%和2.7%。\n汤姆·斯莱特认为， SMIT卖出了脸书和谷歌，也减仓了亚马逊，尽管这些公司能产生巨额的现金流，并且快速增长，但是对SMIT来说，它们的问题是如何分配资源，并在如此大的体量上进一步成长。亚马逊依然面临一系列最广泛的机会，但是贝佐斯从CEO的位置上离任，可能让公司减少了开拓创新的闯劲，对此要抱有警惕。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":783,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862786373,"gmtCreate":1632914592603,"gmtModify":1632914592603,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"#draftkings","listText":"#draftkings","text":"#draftkings","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862786373","repostId":"1178362587","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1178362587","pubTimestamp":1632713616,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178362587?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Top Reasons Investors Should Bet on DraftKings","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178362587","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"With 45.2 million Americans expected to bet on NFL games this season, DraftKings could really soar.\n","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>With 45.2 million Americans expected to bet on NFL games this season, DraftKings could really soar.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The last time I weighed in on&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DKNG\">DraftKings Inc.</a></b>,&nbsp;I said, “…don’t count [DKNG] stock out just yet. With the sports gambling boom just getting underway, DKNG could be one of the top winners.” That was on June 2, as DKNG stock closed the day at $50.97 per share.</p>\n<p>Nonetheless, DraftKings stock is up to just $51.44 after testing a high of nearly $63.60, hammered on news it wants to buy UK gambling company, Entain PLC for $20 billion. However, as I said on June 2, “don’t count the stock out just yet.” NFL kickoff is underway, and the company is still expanding in the U.S. Plus, as I also noted on June 2, by 2023, the global online gambling market could be worth $100 billion, according to Roundhill Investments. Additionally, Roundhill stated that analysts at “Macquarie believes online sports betting will be available to 96% of the U.S. population by 2025.”</p>\n<p>Helping, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest just bought about770,000 shares of the DKNG stock.</p>\n<p>Those catalysts alone could send the DKNG stock higher moving forward.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Growth Is Just As Impressive</b></p>\n<p>DraftKings scored withanother round of solid earnings, too. In the second quarter, revenues jumped about 320% year-over-year (YOY) to $298 million from $71 million. Monthly unique payers soared 281% to 1.1 million. Average revenue per unique payer was up 26% year over year to $80, further proof of players placing more bets.</p>\n<p>Better, the company raised its revenue guidance to a new range of $1.21 billion to $1.29 billion from a prior range of $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion.</p>\n<p>Plus, Loop Capital analyst Daniel Adam has a buy rating on the stock, with a price target of $105. In fact, according to the analyst,&nbsp;based on gross gaming revenue (GGR) and average daily rate (ADR), third quarter revenues are “tracking well ahead of consensus.”</p>\n<p><b>NFL Season Could be Massive for DraftKings Stock</b></p>\n<p>With the 2021 NFL season now in week three, nearly45.2 million Americansare expected to bet on games this year. All as Americans can now legally bet on sports in 26 states, and Washington, D.C. Better, another five states could soon offer legal sports betting shortly, as well.</p>\n<p>Fueling the fire,<b>Genius Sports</b>(NYSE:<b><u>GENI</u></b>) entered into an agreement with DraftKings to provide sportsbook data and asuite of NFL-related products. In addition, DraftKings entered into an agreement with Simplebet tolaunch micro-betting operationsfor the NFL, Major League Baseball and the NBA; All of which could fuel even more upside in the DKNG stock.</p>\n<p><b>DraftKings Pushing Higher on NFT Offering</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, shares of DKNG stock saw even further upside on news of a Derek Jeter non-fungible token (NFT).</p>\n<p>With that in mind, the sale of the NFT went extremely well. In fact, “Jeter sold more than 10,000 digital collectibles for a total of roughly $800,000.” Additionally, the NFT was so in demand that the “first set sold out quickly [on Sept. 7], with the entry-level $12 NFT selling on the secondary market for close to $200….”</p>\n<p>So, while most NFTs don’t generate a significant amount of buzz, this one could be massive.</p>\n<p><b>The Bottom Line on DKNG Stock</b></p>\n<p>Collectively, and repeating what I said on June 2, I still believe “DKNG could be one of the top winners.”</p>\n<p>For one, NFL kickoff means that millions of Americans will likely be betting on games this year. Two, DraftKings continues to sign major agreements, as it expands throughout the U.S. Three, earnings growth continues to be impressive along with guidance.</p>\n<p>Lastly, by 2023, the global online gambling market could be worth $100 billion. And if you take a look at how things are progressing, there are no signs of slowing growth.</p>\n<p>“In 2021, 25 state legislatures have introduced legislation to legalize mobile sports betting, 5 state legislatures have introduced legislation to expand their existing sports wagering frameworks and 2 state legislatures have introduced legislation to legalize sports betting limited to retail locations,” according to aDrafkings’ press release.</p>\n<p>So, with all of that in mind, that’s why DKNG stockcould… go… all… the… way.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Top Reasons Investors Should Bet on DraftKings</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Top Reasons Investors Should Bet on DraftKings\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-27 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/09/the-top-reasons-investors-should-bet-on-draftkings-dkng-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With 45.2 million Americans expected to bet on NFL games this season, DraftKings could really soar.\n\nThe last time I weighed in on DraftKings Inc., I said, “…don’t count [DKNG] stock out just yet. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/the-top-reasons-investors-should-bet-on-draftkings-dkng-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DKNG":"DraftKings Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/the-top-reasons-investors-should-bet-on-draftkings-dkng-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178362587","content_text":"With 45.2 million Americans expected to bet on NFL games this season, DraftKings could really soar.\n\nThe last time I weighed in on DraftKings Inc., I said, “…don’t count [DKNG] stock out just yet. With the sports gambling boom just getting underway, DKNG could be one of the top winners.” That was on June 2, as DKNG stock closed the day at $50.97 per share.\nNonetheless, DraftKings stock is up to just $51.44 after testing a high of nearly $63.60, hammered on news it wants to buy UK gambling company, Entain PLC for $20 billion. However, as I said on June 2, “don’t count the stock out just yet.” NFL kickoff is underway, and the company is still expanding in the U.S. Plus, as I also noted on June 2, by 2023, the global online gambling market could be worth $100 billion, according to Roundhill Investments. Additionally, Roundhill stated that analysts at “Macquarie believes online sports betting will be available to 96% of the U.S. population by 2025.”\nHelping, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest just bought about770,000 shares of the DKNG stock.\nThose catalysts alone could send the DKNG stock higher moving forward.\nEarnings Growth Is Just As Impressive\nDraftKings scored withanother round of solid earnings, too. In the second quarter, revenues jumped about 320% year-over-year (YOY) to $298 million from $71 million. Monthly unique payers soared 281% to 1.1 million. Average revenue per unique payer was up 26% year over year to $80, further proof of players placing more bets.\nBetter, the company raised its revenue guidance to a new range of $1.21 billion to $1.29 billion from a prior range of $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion.\nPlus, Loop Capital analyst Daniel Adam has a buy rating on the stock, with a price target of $105. In fact, according to the analyst, based on gross gaming revenue (GGR) and average daily rate (ADR), third quarter revenues are “tracking well ahead of consensus.”\nNFL Season Could be Massive for DraftKings Stock\nWith the 2021 NFL season now in week three, nearly45.2 million Americansare expected to bet on games this year. All as Americans can now legally bet on sports in 26 states, and Washington, D.C. Better, another five states could soon offer legal sports betting shortly, as well.\nFueling the fire,Genius Sports(NYSE:GENI) entered into an agreement with DraftKings to provide sportsbook data and asuite of NFL-related products. In addition, DraftKings entered into an agreement with Simplebet tolaunch micro-betting operationsfor the NFL, Major League Baseball and the NBA; All of which could fuel even more upside in the DKNG stock.\nDraftKings Pushing Higher on NFT Offering\nMoreover, shares of DKNG stock saw even further upside on news of a Derek Jeter non-fungible token (NFT).\nWith that in mind, the sale of the NFT went extremely well. In fact, “Jeter sold more than 10,000 digital collectibles for a total of roughly $800,000.” Additionally, the NFT was so in demand that the “first set sold out quickly [on Sept. 7], with the entry-level $12 NFT selling on the secondary market for close to $200….”\nSo, while most NFTs don’t generate a significant amount of buzz, this one could be massive.\nThe Bottom Line on DKNG Stock\nCollectively, and repeating what I said on June 2, I still believe “DKNG could be one of the top winners.”\nFor one, NFL kickoff means that millions of Americans will likely be betting on games this year. Two, DraftKings continues to sign major agreements, as it expands throughout the U.S. Three, earnings growth continues to be impressive along with guidance.\nLastly, by 2023, the global online gambling market could be worth $100 billion. And if you take a look at how things are progressing, there are no signs of slowing growth.\n“In 2021, 25 state legislatures have introduced legislation to legalize mobile sports betting, 5 state legislatures have introduced legislation to expand their existing sports wagering frameworks and 2 state legislatures have introduced legislation to legalize sports betting limited to retail locations,” according to aDrafkings’ press release.\nSo, with all of that in mind, that’s why DKNG stockcould… go… all… the… way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":810233018,"gmtCreate":1629979120935,"gmtModify":1629979120935,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810233018","repostId":"1195506103","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195506103","pubTimestamp":1629901738,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195506103?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-25 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195506103","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.\nThe ex","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Palantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.</li>\n <li>The excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF.</li>\n <li>We stick to our opinion that Palantir is not going to be able to create a lot of shareholder value anytime soon.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5c6d796592faec81d9a29502efa9c0\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>The recent Q2 earnings report showed that Palantir (PLTR) continues to struggle to improve its bottom-line performance, as the company spends too much on its excessive stock-based compensation program, which eats all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF. In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&amp;P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.</p>\n<p><b>There's Nothing Attractive About This Stock</b></p>\n<p>A lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started&nbsp;covering&nbsp;the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448991dec6028a9ec320f12e9d0f14f1\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>The latest earnings&nbsp;report&nbsp;for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has&nbsp;increased&nbsp;by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7dd0114d8a61c1246ef79b64fbc68f2\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"129\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p>\n<p>Another problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up&nbsp;from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d64c44e10997f737309cf33d72b9c15\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"166\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p>\n<p>On top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders&nbsp;sold&nbsp;a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.</p>\n<p>Another downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street&nbsp;expects&nbsp;Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the&nbsp;consensus&nbsp;price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Bullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.</p>\n<p>Considering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Shareholder Unfriendly Company With Limited Upside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-25 22:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451225-palantir-shareholder-unfriendly-company-with-limited-upside-pltr><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPalantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.\nThe excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451225-palantir-shareholder-unfriendly-company-with-limited-upside-pltr\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451225-palantir-shareholder-unfriendly-company-with-limited-upside-pltr","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195506103","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir continues to widen its net loss despite improving its top-line performance.\nThe excessive stock-based compensation program continues to eat all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF.\nWe stick to our opinion that Palantir is not going to be able to create a lot of shareholder value anytime soon.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe recent Q2 earnings report showed that Palantir (PLTR) continues to struggle to improve its bottom-line performance, as the company spends too much on its excessive stock-based compensation program, which eats all the profits and overshadows any growth of revenues or FCF. In addition, the massive dilution since the beginning of the year and the constant selling pressure from the company's insiders are preventing Palantir's shares from appreciating as well. Also, the fact that Palantir has underperformed against the S&P 500 index in recent months and its stock hasn't moved much since March proves our point that the company is not an attractive investment at this stage, as there's every reason to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it's better to invest in other, more attractive opportunities on the market and avoid Palantir.\nThere's Nothing Attractive About This Stock\nA lot has been said about Palantir's business and its advantages against other competitors in recent articles on the company, so we won't be discussing it in this article. However, while Palantir certainly has some major advantages since its software solutions are hard to replicate, we also believe that at this stage it doesn't matter how strong its business is, as certain factors are likely going to continue to prevent the company's stock from appreciating anytime soon. Let's not ignore the fact that Palantir's stock has depreciated by over 45% from its all-time high, it also hasn't moved much since we started covering the company on Seeking Alpha in March, and we continue to believe that not a lot of shareholder value will be created anytime soon.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nThe latest earnings report for Q2, which was released earlier this month, showed that Palantir is still unable to improve its bottom-line performance despite growing its business. While its revenue has increased by 10.1% Q/Q to $375.64 million and its gross profit has increased by 6.6% Q/Q to $284.7 million, its operating loss has increased at a greater rate of 28.2% Q/Q to -$146.1 million, while its net loss has widened by 12.2% Q/Q to -$138.6 million. The reason for such a weak performance is the excessive stock-based compensation program, which will prevent the company from reporting a profit, as already over $400 million were spent on the SBC program in the first six months of the current fiscal year. In Q2 alone, Palantir increased its stock-based compensation expenses by 82% Y/Y to $232.7 million, and further expenses in Q3 and Q4 will overshadow any growth of revenues or FCF this year.\nSource: Palantir\nAnother problem with the excessive SBC program is that it constantly dilutes Palantir's shareholders. The company already has 1.89 billion shares outstanding, up from1.8 billion shares a month ago and up from 1.52 billion shares at the end of 2020. At the current dilution rate, investors should expect the company to have over 2 billion shares by the end of this year. This will not only diminish the stock value of current holders but will also make it harder for shares to appreciate higher due to the greater count. If in 2019 and 2020 Palantir's revenue per share stood at $1.29 per share and $1.12 per share, respectively, in the last trailing twelve months revenue per share has already declined to only $0.83 per share and is likely going to depreciate further in the following quarters. On top of that, considering that Palantir still has 417,674 options outstanding at the end of Q2 at the average exercise price of $6.90 per share, the risk of further dilution will remain high, especially since once all of those options are exercised, they will dilute all the investors by over 20%.\nSource: Palantir\nOn top of all of this, the company's insiders and its CEO Alex Karp in particular continue to add additional selling pressure, which prevents shares from rising higher as well. In Q2 alone the company's insiders sold a record $197 million worth of Palantir's shares, while in the first half of Q3 they already sold $93 million worth of the company's shares, nearly the same amount that they sold in Q1. As more shares are being dumped into the market, it becomes harder and harder for the stock to rise. Considering that it's unlikely that insiders stop selling their shares, as they still own over 10% of outstanding shares and are increasing their total number of shares by exercising options every quarter, average shareholders shouldn't expect a rapid appreciation of Palantir's stock in the foreseeable future.\nAnother downside of Palantir is that, even at the current price, it's not a cheap stock at all; with a market cap of $47 billion, it trades at 30 times its sales. As a result, an even greater top-line growth rate is required for the company to reach its current valuation, and that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. Currently, the street expects Palantir to generate only $1.5 billion in revenues in FY21, and by 2025 it's unlikely that the company will be able to generate annual revenue of over $3.5 billion. Considering that at this stage, Palantir has a backlog of contracts worth only $3.4 billion, which are extended over the next few years, it's safe to say that its stock is significantly overvalued at the current levels. We don't see how the company will grow into its current market value in the next few years, and since its shares currently trade close to the consensus price of $24.16 per share, it's safe to assume that Palantir has limited upside at the current levels.\nTakeaway\nBullish investors in the comment section of our articles on Palantir often keep repeating that Amazon (AMZN) was also unprofitable for more than two decades, so the fact that Palantir is being unprofitable as well is not that big a deal at this stage. However, Amazon was reinvesting most of the available resources back into its business to aggressively drive growth, which in the end was justifiable, as the company is now making money every quarter and is the biggest eCommerce company in the world. The same is not the case for Palantir, where insiders are constantly issuing new shares and then dumping them into the market, which constantly dilutes the existing shareholders, widens the overall net loss, and doesn't benefit the business. On top of that, Palantir is now investing in cryptocurrencies, SPACs, and gold bars, instead of its own business, which is something that Amazon wasn't doing and is not doing today. That's why comparing Palantir to Amazon doesn't make any sense.\nConsidering this, we believe that it's unlikely that Palantir's stock will be able to appreciate significantly higher anytime soon, as the increased selling pressure, constant dilution, and overvaluation are the main reasons why its upside will remain limited at the current price. Therefore, no position.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":898142525,"gmtCreate":1628480571767,"gmtModify":1628480571767,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>作恶","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>作恶","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$作恶","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898142525","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166354544,"gmtCreate":1623993414588,"gmtModify":1623993414588,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166354544","repostId":"1101656645","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1101656645","pubTimestamp":1623902534,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101656645?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 12:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"如果全面关停课外培训班会怎么样？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101656645","media":"古三古四","summary":"校外教育培训机构，本质上是家长们厮杀的战场。","content":"<p>教育界发生一件大事，教育培训监管司正式成立！</p>\n<p>最近对教育培训的相关传闻挺多的，大多是谣言。</p>\n<p>但背后对应的是一股汹涌的民意，就是对校外教育培训的强烈不满。</p>\n<p>各类传言下面，点赞率最高的往往是“取缔一切校外教育培训机构”。</p>\n<p>太多家长痛恨补习班了，花钱，费力，全家无比痛苦。</p>\n<p>而家长们对教育的追求，也被评为内卷。</p>\n<p><b>中国的高考，打的是排名战，不是水平战。</b>能不能上好大学，与你的水平无关，只与你的排名相关。</p>\n<p>既然是排名赛，本质上就是竞争稀缺资源，那各家家长使出吃奶的劲，花大钱去校外辅导，目的只有一个，在高考的排名战中一举超越竞争对手。</p>\n<p><b>校外教育培训机构，本质上是家长们厮杀的战场。</b></p>\n<p>校内教育，大家接受的东西都一样，那我如何实现弯道超车呢？咱换个战场比，比钱多少，比父母辅导能力，比管理孩子的能力。</p>\n<p>这个厮杀战，不是以班级为单位展开的，而是以省为单位展开的，即使你在班上第一名，也没用，你要拼的是全省第N名。</p>\n<p><b>而指挥这场战役的，是高考。</b></p>\n<p><b>一考定终身。</b></p>\n<p>在北京，有家长花数百万买学区房，有人上培训班年支出超过十万。</p>\n<p>十年前，学大教育一对一辅导曾收取过上百万一个人的天价。</p>\n<p>有人说，中国的家长疯了，为了孩子的教育，这么大的投资值得吗？</p>\n<p>值。非常值。</p>\n<p>如果你考进211，985，大部分家长的投入就基本回来了，因为这样的大学生均年经费都是几十万。比如复旦大学，年支出经费就八十亿，如果按学生数量算，人均一年十六万，但学生只需要交几千块的学费。这个经费还没有计算土地，因为很多大学的土地是免费划拨的。</p>\n<p>你进了好的大学，相当于你可以享受到巨额的财政补贴。</p>\n<p>如果读到博士，总补贴金额没有一百万，也有大几十万。</p>\n<p>这还只是读大学时享受到的。读完大学呢？海外留学，国内公务员，国内名企，一生下来，收入可能与普通大学毕业生相差千万级别以上。</p>\n<p>这么大的产出，当然要拼。</p>\n<p>当然，教育这种东西，投资回报率是一种概率，读北大都可能读成废材，人不是工业品，偶然性因素很多。</p>\n<p>但人决策行动时，都需要面向不确定性，进好学校有好前途，这是大概率。</p>\n<p><b>既然概率高，就值得追求。</b></p>\n<p>那网上取消培训班的要求出现会缓解这种竞争吗？</p>\n<p>有人想象了这么一幅美好的画面，从此孩子们的竞争只发生在学校的课堂里，下了课没作业，然后开心的玩耍，然后父母晚上不再痛苦，不再逼孩子写作业了，不再接送孩子上培训班了。</p>\n<p><b>这美好的一切真的会发生吗？</b></p>\n<p>假设有一天真发生了。</p>\n<p>张三他妈发现，张三班上的同学回家后全在打游戏，看电视，她一下就欣喜若狂，什么是机会？对手放松，那就是我的机会。</p>\n<p>没有校外辅导班，好办，咱把老师请回家，一请请三个。晚上六点到十二点，每个老师两小时，小样，瞧我家张三，那分数蹭蹭蹭地往上涨。</p>\n<p>张三他妈刚刚高兴了半学期。李四妈妈得知了这个消息。</p>\n<p>就你家有钱？你请的起，我就不能请？我能把985的位置让给你吗？不行。</p>\n<p>你天天晚上请，我就天天晚上再加上周六周日全请，全排满。<b>我怎么可能竞争不过你？不就是比钱多吗？比房子大吗？老娘舍得在孩子身上花钱。</b></p>\n<p>再过几天，全校家里有条件的全部都把一对一家教老师请上了，由于需求旺盛，普通的一对一老师的价格从一小时二百上涨到一小时三四百了，优秀的一小时涨到五百了。</p>\n<p>然后家里困难一点的学生家长面对这个情况就傻眼了。</p>\n<p>原来可以上培训班，一个老师教二十个孩子，我一小时八十一百就行了，现在我得花五百一小时，咱家穷实在是花不起啊。</p>\n<p><b>取消培训班，意味着原来小班制教学全部要换为一对一家教模式，这就造成了供给不足。</b></p>\n<p>这时，所有的在一二线城市的大学生们，将疯狂地冲进家庭成为家教老师，哪怕挂科，也要疯狂，月入上万，谁不干？</p>\n<p>而三四线城市的家长将无计可施，就算出的起钱，但优秀的人才都在一二线啊。</p>\n<p>农村高中，就不要想了，集体躺平吧，除了个别天才，你就别指望了。可能当地最好的老师全跑到一二线城市当家教去了，五百一小时，一晚上可能上千的收入，还呆在五线县城和农村做什么？</p>\n<p>这时，中产还有新招。培训老师太贵，<b>我就从需求方转为供给者。</b></p>\n<p>这什么意思呢？打个比方说，如果滴滴一公里涨价到二十块，你去十公里外的公司上班要二百，那你会干什么？你会辞职去开滴滴，你会从消费者转变为供给者。</p>\n<p>中产家庭面对这种情况，会让知识水平较高的妈妈们离职，在家成为专职老师，白天就自学课程，天天在网上听名师讲课，晚上就自己亲自动手教小孩。</p>\n<p>相当于这个妈妈每晚四小时的工作收入一千多。</p>\n<p>鸡娃大战将进入贴身肉搏的程度，以至于不少妈妈们在孩子高考完了，立马就变身职业家教了。</p>\n<p>而富人将轻松用金钱将穷人打败，知识分子中产阶级孕育出一批比学校老师还牛的家长型家教，而四五线小县城农村的学生，则集体躺平，真正实现素质教育，下了课就和父母进行吵架素质训练，教不了，就只能骂了。</p>\n<p>取消培训班真就这么香吗？不见得喔。</p>","source":"lsy1623902592118","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如果全面关停课外培训班会怎么样？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 12:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkyKEz8c0dUQX-BjZQbpJA><strong>古三古四</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>教育界发生一件大事，教育培训监管司正式成立！\n最近对教育培训的相关传闻挺多的，大多是谣言。\n但背后对应的是一股汹涌的民意，就是对校外教育培训的强烈不满。\n各类传言下面，点赞率最高的往往是“取缔一切校外教育培训机构”。\n太多家长痛恨补习班了，花钱，费力，全家无比痛苦。\n而家长们对教育的追求，也被评为内卷。\n中国的高考，打的是排名战，不是水平战。能不能上好大学，与你的水平无关，只与你的排名相关。\n既然...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkyKEz8c0dUQX-BjZQbpJA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/428db54350354f66d13560331e078b53","relate_stocks":{"09901":"新东方-S","GOTU":"高途","YQ":"一起教育科技","01797":"东方甄选","IH":"洪恩","ZME":"掌门教育","EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来","COE":"51TALK","DAO":"有道"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkyKEz8c0dUQX-BjZQbpJA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101656645","content_text":"教育界发生一件大事，教育培训监管司正式成立！\n最近对教育培训的相关传闻挺多的，大多是谣言。\n但背后对应的是一股汹涌的民意，就是对校外教育培训的强烈不满。\n各类传言下面，点赞率最高的往往是“取缔一切校外教育培训机构”。\n太多家长痛恨补习班了，花钱，费力，全家无比痛苦。\n而家长们对教育的追求，也被评为内卷。\n中国的高考，打的是排名战，不是水平战。能不能上好大学，与你的水平无关，只与你的排名相关。\n既然是排名赛，本质上就是竞争稀缺资源，那各家家长使出吃奶的劲，花大钱去校外辅导，目的只有一个，在高考的排名战中一举超越竞争对手。\n校外教育培训机构，本质上是家长们厮杀的战场。\n校内教育，大家接受的东西都一样，那我如何实现弯道超车呢？咱换个战场比，比钱多少，比父母辅导能力，比管理孩子的能力。\n这个厮杀战，不是以班级为单位展开的，而是以省为单位展开的，即使你在班上第一名，也没用，你要拼的是全省第N名。\n而指挥这场战役的，是高考。\n一考定终身。\n在北京，有家长花数百万买学区房，有人上培训班年支出超过十万。\n十年前，学大教育一对一辅导曾收取过上百万一个人的天价。\n有人说，中国的家长疯了，为了孩子的教育，这么大的投资值得吗？\n值。非常值。\n如果你考进211，985，大部分家长的投入就基本回来了，因为这样的大学生均年经费都是几十万。比如复旦大学，年支出经费就八十亿，如果按学生数量算，人均一年十六万，但学生只需要交几千块的学费。这个经费还没有计算土地，因为很多大学的土地是免费划拨的。\n你进了好的大学，相当于你可以享受到巨额的财政补贴。\n如果读到博士，总补贴金额没有一百万，也有大几十万。\n这还只是读大学时享受到的。读完大学呢？海外留学，国内公务员，国内名企，一生下来，收入可能与普通大学毕业生相差千万级别以上。\n这么大的产出，当然要拼。\n当然，教育这种东西，投资回报率是一种概率，读北大都可能读成废材，人不是工业品，偶然性因素很多。\n但人决策行动时，都需要面向不确定性，进好学校有好前途，这是大概率。\n既然概率高，就值得追求。\n那网上取消培训班的要求出现会缓解这种竞争吗？\n有人想象了这么一幅美好的画面，从此孩子们的竞争只发生在学校的课堂里，下了课没作业，然后开心的玩耍，然后父母晚上不再痛苦，不再逼孩子写作业了，不再接送孩子上培训班了。\n这美好的一切真的会发生吗？\n假设有一天真发生了。\n张三他妈发现，张三班上的同学回家后全在打游戏，看电视，她一下就欣喜若狂，什么是机会？对手放松，那就是我的机会。\n没有校外辅导班，好办，咱把老师请回家，一请请三个。晚上六点到十二点，每个老师两小时，小样，瞧我家张三，那分数蹭蹭蹭地往上涨。\n张三他妈刚刚高兴了半学期。李四妈妈得知了这个消息。\n就你家有钱？你请的起，我就不能请？我能把985的位置让给你吗？不行。\n你天天晚上请，我就天天晚上再加上周六周日全请，全排满。我怎么可能竞争不过你？不就是比钱多吗？比房子大吗？老娘舍得在孩子身上花钱。\n再过几天，全校家里有条件的全部都把一对一家教老师请上了，由于需求旺盛，普通的一对一老师的价格从一小时二百上涨到一小时三四百了，优秀的一小时涨到五百了。\n然后家里困难一点的学生家长面对这个情况就傻眼了。\n原来可以上培训班，一个老师教二十个孩子，我一小时八十一百就行了，现在我得花五百一小时，咱家穷实在是花不起啊。\n取消培训班，意味着原来小班制教学全部要换为一对一家教模式，这就造成了供给不足。\n这时，所有的在一二线城市的大学生们，将疯狂地冲进家庭成为家教老师，哪怕挂科，也要疯狂，月入上万，谁不干？\n而三四线城市的家长将无计可施，就算出的起钱，但优秀的人才都在一二线啊。\n农村高中，就不要想了，集体躺平吧，除了个别天才，你就别指望了。可能当地最好的老师全跑到一二线城市当家教去了，五百一小时，一晚上可能上千的收入，还呆在五线县城和农村做什么？\n这时，中产还有新招。培训老师太贵，我就从需求方转为供给者。\n这什么意思呢？打个比方说，如果滴滴一公里涨价到二十块，你去十公里外的公司上班要二百，那你会干什么？你会辞职去开滴滴，你会从消费者转变为供给者。\n中产家庭面对这种情况，会让知识水平较高的妈妈们离职，在家成为专职老师，白天就自学课程，天天在网上听名师讲课，晚上就自己亲自动手教小孩。\n相当于这个妈妈每晚四小时的工作收入一千多。\n鸡娃大战将进入贴身肉搏的程度，以至于不少妈妈们在孩子高考完了，立马就变身职业家教了。\n而富人将轻松用金钱将穷人打败，知识分子中产阶级孕育出一批比学校老师还牛的家长型家教，而四五线小县城农村的学生，则集体躺平，真正实现素质教育，下了课就和父母进行吵架素质训练，教不了，就只能骂了。\n取消培训班真就这么香吗？不见得喔。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342174307,"gmtCreate":1618194088209,"gmtModify":1618194088209,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[哟哟]","listText":"[哟哟]","text":"[哟哟]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342174307","repostId":"340387517","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":340387517,"gmtCreate":1617340315939,"gmtModify":1617343033674,"author":{"id":"3578967738122879","authorId":"3578967738122879","name":"消金界","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/722cc84b89c4c2118f15de1353d62ff4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯背书下股价依然腰斩，移卡2020年净利暴涨只是玩“财技”？","htmlText":"在港上市的移卡近期公布了其2020年业绩报告，作为2020年6月登陆港交所之后发布的第一份全年业绩报告，移卡的这份成绩单可以用差强人意来形容，而在其业绩发布的第二日，二级市场投资者也纷纷“用脚投票”，当日其股价应声大跌超11%，而在3月29日，移卡股价则再次大跌超8%，两日累计跌幅接近20%，显然，移卡这份的最新的答卷并没有让市场满意。事实上，进入2021年以来，借助公司不断横向并购等“利好”信息的刺激，移卡股价曾迎来一波疯涨，从1月4号底部的37.6港元/股涨至2月17号的122.7港元/股，期间涨幅高达221%。截至4月2日发稿，其最新股价虽开始反弹，但较峰值已经腰斩。出现上述情况下的原因，刨除受进入2月下旬以来港股指数整体回调的影响外，消金界认为，我们或许能从其这份最新财报里得出不一样的答案。&nbsp;营收微增净利却暴涨，盈利能力藏“猫腻”“移卡”全称为深圳市移卡科技有限公司，成立于2011年，初始业务为小微商户提供支付服务，2014年获得央行颁发的全国银行卡收单许可和移动电话支付许可证，成为国内16家同时具有上述两项牌照的支付机构之一；另由于创始人具有腾讯背景，在成立初期便获得腾讯的战略投资，再借助微信支付的这一生态，截止到2019年，其年度支付交易总量就已经突破1.5万亿元，并且在2020年6月成功登陆港交所主板市场，成为继汇付支付之后内地第二家在港上市企业。业务布局层面，目前移卡主要有两大业务线，一是传统一站式支付业务线，二是在前者服务用户基础上所形成的科技赋能商业业务线。具体各业务条线又根据业务实质及服务客群进行了产品归类，详细如下：经营数据方面，根据其最新业绩数据显示，2020年，一站式支付业务业务服务商户数达到551万家，较2019年的527万户同比微增4.5%，透过支付服务获取服务的消费者者到达6.45亿人，较2019年的3.67亿人同比增长75.5%","listText":"在港上市的移卡近期公布了其2020年业绩报告，作为2020年6月登陆港交所之后发布的第一份全年业绩报告，移卡的这份成绩单可以用差强人意来形容，而在其业绩发布的第二日，二级市场投资者也纷纷“用脚投票”，当日其股价应声大跌超11%，而在3月29日，移卡股价则再次大跌超8%，两日累计跌幅接近20%，显然，移卡这份的最新的答卷并没有让市场满意。事实上，进入2021年以来，借助公司不断横向并购等“利好”信息的刺激，移卡股价曾迎来一波疯涨，从1月4号底部的37.6港元/股涨至2月17号的122.7港元/股，期间涨幅高达221%。截至4月2日发稿，其最新股价虽开始反弹，但较峰值已经腰斩。出现上述情况下的原因，刨除受进入2月下旬以来港股指数整体回调的影响外，消金界认为，我们或许能从其这份最新财报里得出不一样的答案。&nbsp;营收微增净利却暴涨，盈利能力藏“猫腻”“移卡”全称为深圳市移卡科技有限公司，成立于2011年，初始业务为小微商户提供支付服务，2014年获得央行颁发的全国银行卡收单许可和移动电话支付许可证，成为国内16家同时具有上述两项牌照的支付机构之一；另由于创始人具有腾讯背景，在成立初期便获得腾讯的战略投资，再借助微信支付的这一生态，截止到2019年，其年度支付交易总量就已经突破1.5万亿元，并且在2020年6月成功登陆港交所主板市场，成为继汇付支付之后内地第二家在港上市企业。业务布局层面，目前移卡主要有两大业务线，一是传统一站式支付业务线，二是在前者服务用户基础上所形成的科技赋能商业业务线。具体各业务条线又根据业务实质及服务客群进行了产品归类，详细如下：经营数据方面，根据其最新业绩数据显示，2020年，一站式支付业务业务服务商户数达到551万家，较2019年的527万户同比微增4.5%，透过支付服务获取服务的消费者者到达6.45亿人，较2019年的3.67亿人同比增长75.5%","text":"在港上市的移卡近期公布了其2020年业绩报告，作为2020年6月登陆港交所之后发布的第一份全年业绩报告，移卡的这份成绩单可以用差强人意来形容，而在其业绩发布的第二日，二级市场投资者也纷纷“用脚投票”，当日其股价应声大跌超11%，而在3月29日，移卡股价则再次大跌超8%，两日累计跌幅接近20%，显然，移卡这份的最新的答卷并没有让市场满意。事实上，进入2021年以来，借助公司不断横向并购等“利好”信息的刺激，移卡股价曾迎来一波疯涨，从1月4号底部的37.6港元/股涨至2月17号的122.7港元/股，期间涨幅高达221%。截至4月2日发稿，其最新股价虽开始反弹，但较峰值已经腰斩。出现上述情况下的原因，刨除受进入2月下旬以来港股指数整体回调的影响外，消金界认为，我们或许能从其这份最新财报里得出不一样的答案。 营收微增净利却暴涨，盈利能力藏“猫腻”“移卡”全称为深圳市移卡科技有限公司，成立于2011年，初始业务为小微商户提供支付服务，2014年获得央行颁发的全国银行卡收单许可和移动电话支付许可证，成为国内16家同时具有上述两项牌照的支付机构之一；另由于创始人具有腾讯背景，在成立初期便获得腾讯的战略投资，再借助微信支付的这一生态，截止到2019年，其年度支付交易总量就已经突破1.5万亿元，并且在2020年6月成功登陆港交所主板市场，成为继汇付支付之后内地第二家在港上市企业。业务布局层面，目前移卡主要有两大业务线，一是传统一站式支付业务线，二是在前者服务用户基础上所形成的科技赋能商业业务线。具体各业务条线又根据业务实质及服务客群进行了产品归类，详细如下：经营数据方面，根据其最新业绩数据显示，2020年，一站式支付业务业务服务商户数达到551万家，较2019年的527万户同比微增4.5%，透过支付服务获取服务的消费者者到达6.45亿人，较2019年的3.67亿人同比增长75.5%","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d567ff63b9adee2d99d441d43c976511"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c97942b725eafc3104ee4ff2bc94a1c"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef2f4fb3d53219e5b2e2031b0b756561"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340387517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346310045,"gmtCreate":1617989790487,"gmtModify":1617989790487,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346310045","repostId":"2124975365","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2124975365","pubTimestamp":1617292800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2124975365?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 00:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why It's Time to Buy GoPro","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2124975365","media":"Anthony Di Pizio","summary":"From camera hardware to software subscriptions, this transformation story is poised to boom as economies reopen.","content":"<html><body><span>\n<p>As summer rolls around and economies tentatively reopen, camera company <strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPRO\">GoPro</a></strong> <span>(NASDAQ:GPRO)</span> is well-placed to capture the moment. With direct-to-consumer sales and an expansion of its camera app, the company's transformation is already bearing fruit. After a tough 2020, a bumper summer could cement the turnaround story. </p>\n<div><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F620172%2Fgopro_zipline_daredevil_stunt_selfie_source_gopro.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" srcset=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/620172/gopro_zipline_daredevil_stunt_selfie_source_gopro.jpg&amp;w=300&amp;op=resize 300w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/620172/gopro_zipline_daredevil_stunt_selfie_source_gopro.jpg&amp;w=1000&amp;op=resize 1000w, https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A//g.foolcdn.com/editorial/images/620172/gopro_zipline_daredevil_stunt_selfie_source_gopro.jpg&amp;w=2000&amp;op=resize 2000w\"/>\n<p>To survive, GoPro will have to take a daring leap into new ventures. Image source: GoPro.</p>\n</div>\n<h2>In with the new</h2>\n<p>GoPro's grappling with stagnant revenue growth from its <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a>-dimensional camera business. To survive, it's trying to expand to customers outside its existing suite of products, and switching from hardware to more lucrative software as its core business. </p>\n<p>Quik is GoPro's new feature-packed camera app for smartphones, aiming to replace the native camera app on your device. Its key features include:</p>\n<ul>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">A new speed tool for slow, fast, and freeze motion.</li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">New premium filters and themes.</li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">Royalty-free music options.</li>\n<li aria-level=\"1\">A new flagship content-organizing tool called \"Mural\"</li>\n</ul>\n<p>It's free to use, but most features come with a paid option for $1.99 a month or $9.99 a year. GoPro Premium subscribers -- the hardcore fans who pay $69.99 a year for cloud storage and product discounts -- get the full version free of charge. </p>\n<p>GoPro has already built a paying subscriber base of 761,000 users as of the end of 2020, up an impressive 145% from 2019. The company expects to generate $50 million in annual recurring revenue for every 1 million subscribers, meaning that the company expects most of that subscription money to come through GoPro Premium.</p><div></div>\n<h2>GoPro.com goes direct</h2>\n<p>Action cameras remain core to GoPro's business but it has adjusted its sales mix to improve profitability. Rather than selling them to retailers, who then sell to the consumers, GoPro is now using its website to reach consumers directly. Selling direct allows GoPro to pocket the retailers' cut while building a closer relationship with its customers. </p>\n<p>This improves gross margins: As the GoPro website generates a bigger portion of sales, the company earns more money per product:</p>\n<div><table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\n<p><em>Percentage of sales</em></p>\n</th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>2018</strong></p>\n</th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>2019</strong></p>\n</th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>2020</strong></p>\n</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Retail</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>91.2%</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>88.2%</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>68.3%</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>GoPro.com</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>8.8%</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>11.8%</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>31.7%</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Gross Margins</strong></p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>31.5%</strong></p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>34.6%</strong></p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>35.3%</strong></p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table></div>\n<p>Source: Company filings.</p>\n<p>GoPro has a history of losing money, but it was improving <em>substantially </em>until COVID hit<em>, </em>with the trend suggesting it could have turned a profit in 2020 if not for the pandemic:</p><div></div>\n<div><table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>\n<p><em>Year</em></p>\n</th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>Revenue</strong></p>\n</th>\n<th>\n<p><strong>Net Loss ($m)</strong></p>\n</th>\n</tr>\n</thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>2016</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>1,185,481</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>(419.0)</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>2017</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>1,179,741</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>(182.9)</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>2018</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>1,148,337</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>(109.0)</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>2019</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>1,194,651</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>(14.6)</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>2020</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>891,925</p>\n</td>\n<td>\n<p>(66.8)</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table></div>\n<p>Source: Company filings.</p>\n<p>With the addition of a rapidly growing, high-margin (over 50% operating margins, according to the company) subscription business, there is a good chance GoPro could get the earnings trend back on track.</p>\n<p>The US comprises approximately 54% of GoPro's business, so with the country moving into a more normal summer season, a strong sales bump could set the tone for the rest of the year. </p>\n<h2>Be <em>cautiously</em> optimistic</h2>\n<p>Concern over the above losses is only logical, but GoPro is moving in the right direction, and is in solid financial health. A key potential drawback would be another year like the last, with external shocks. </p><div></div>\n<p>Many competitors have entered the action camera market, but GoPro has maintained the dominant position through consistent innovation, while its rivals follow. GoPro's HERO9 is a great example: the first action camera to shoot in 5K HD. </p>\n<p>While smartphone cameras have improved, it appears this hasn't detracted from GoPro's steady revenue figures. Consumers tend to install their entire lives on their phones, so it's possible they're not willing to place them at risk! If smartphone makers solve the fragility issue, this would theoretically hurt GoPro's business. </p>\n<p>The company has about $218 million in debt, offset by $325 million in cash. Even if it has another year like 2020 (unlikely), it has enough cash to try again in a more normal 2022. If the company can break even this year, or turn a small profit, it might set up a blockbuster 2022. </p>\n<p>With a current market cap of just $1.7 billion on more than $1 billion revenues in a typical year, investors should keep a close eye on GoPro's profits to see whether its risky new adventure will lead to a brighter big picture.</p>\n<div></div>\n</span></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why It's Time to Buy GoPro</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy It's Time to Buy GoPro\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-02 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/why-its-time-to-buy-gopro/><strong>Anthony Di Pizio</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As summer rolls around and economies tentatively reopen, camera company GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) is well-placed to capture the moment. With direct-to-consumer sales and an expansion of its camera app, the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/why-its-time-to-buy-gopro/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GPRO":"GoPro"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/why-its-time-to-buy-gopro/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2124975365","content_text":"As summer rolls around and economies tentatively reopen, camera company GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) is well-placed to capture the moment. With direct-to-consumer sales and an expansion of its camera app, the company's transformation is already bearing fruit. After a tough 2020, a bumper summer could cement the turnaround story. \n\nTo survive, GoPro will have to take a daring leap into new ventures. Image source: GoPro.\n\nIn with the new\nGoPro's grappling with stagnant revenue growth from its one-dimensional camera business. To survive, it's trying to expand to customers outside its existing suite of products, and switching from hardware to more lucrative software as its core business. \nQuik is GoPro's new feature-packed camera app for smartphones, aiming to replace the native camera app on your device. Its key features include:\n\nA new speed tool for slow, fast, and freeze motion.\nNew premium filters and themes.\nRoyalty-free music options.\nA new flagship content-organizing tool called \"Mural\"\n\nIt's free to use, but most features come with a paid option for $1.99 a month or $9.99 a year. GoPro Premium subscribers -- the hardcore fans who pay $69.99 a year for cloud storage and product discounts -- get the full version free of charge. \nGoPro has already built a paying subscriber base of 761,000 users as of the end of 2020, up an impressive 145% from 2019. The company expects to generate $50 million in annual recurring revenue for every 1 million subscribers, meaning that the company expects most of that subscription money to come through GoPro Premium.\nGoPro.com goes direct\nAction cameras remain core to GoPro's business but it has adjusted its sales mix to improve profitability. Rather than selling them to retailers, who then sell to the consumers, GoPro is now using its website to reach consumers directly. Selling direct allows GoPro to pocket the retailers' cut while building a closer relationship with its customers. \nThis improves gross margins: As the GoPro website generates a bigger portion of sales, the company earns more money per product:\n\n\n\n\nPercentage of sales\n\n\n2018\n\n\n2019\n\n\n2020\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRetail\n\n\n91.2%\n\n\n88.2%\n\n\n68.3%\n\n\n\n\nGoPro.com\n\n\n8.8%\n\n\n11.8%\n\n\n31.7%\n\n\n\n\nGross Margins\n\n\n31.5%\n\n\n34.6%\n\n\n35.3%\n\n\n\n\nSource: Company filings.\nGoPro has a history of losing money, but it was improving substantially until COVID hit, with the trend suggesting it could have turned a profit in 2020 if not for the pandemic:\n\n\n\n\nYear\n\n\nRevenue\n\n\nNet Loss ($m)\n\n\n\n\n\n\n2016\n\n\n1,185,481\n\n\n(419.0)\n\n\n\n\n2017\n\n\n1,179,741\n\n\n(182.9)\n\n\n\n\n2018\n\n\n1,148,337\n\n\n(109.0)\n\n\n\n\n2019\n\n\n1,194,651\n\n\n(14.6)\n\n\n\n\n2020\n\n\n891,925\n\n\n(66.8)\n\n\n\n\nSource: Company filings.\nWith the addition of a rapidly growing, high-margin (over 50% operating margins, according to the company) subscription business, there is a good chance GoPro could get the earnings trend back on track.\nThe US comprises approximately 54% of GoPro's business, so with the country moving into a more normal summer season, a strong sales bump could set the tone for the rest of the year. \nBe cautiously optimistic\nConcern over the above losses is only logical, but GoPro is moving in the right direction, and is in solid financial health. A key potential drawback would be another year like the last, with external shocks. \nMany competitors have entered the action camera market, but GoPro has maintained the dominant position through consistent innovation, while its rivals follow. GoPro's HERO9 is a great example: the first action camera to shoot in 5K HD. \nWhile smartphone cameras have improved, it appears this hasn't detracted from GoPro's steady revenue figures. Consumers tend to install their entire lives on their phones, so it's possible they're not willing to place them at risk! If smartphone makers solve the fragility issue, this would theoretically hurt GoPro's business. \nThe company has about $218 million in debt, offset by $325 million in cash. Even if it has another year like 2020 (unlikely), it has enough cash to try again in a more normal 2022. If the company can break even this year, or turn a small profit, it might set up a blockbuster 2022. \nWith a current market cap of just $1.7 billion on more than $1 billion revenues in a typical year, investors should keep a close eye on GoPro's profits to see whether its risky new adventure will lead to a brighter big picture.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346051282,"gmtCreate":1617976390546,"gmtModify":1617976390546,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346051282","repostId":"1130825933","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350510063,"gmtCreate":1616227159952,"gmtModify":1616227159952,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]","listText":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350510063","repostId":"1151684793","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1151684793","pubTimestamp":1616054223,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151684793?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 15:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why Palantir Is a Must-Have Stock for Long Term Investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151684793","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"In this video, I will be talking aboutPalantir(NYSE:PLTR)again and explain why it should be in every","content":"<p>In this video, I will be talking about<b>Palantir</b>(NYSE:PLTR)again and explain why it should be in everyone's long-term portfolio. Palantir is in the business of \"predicting future outcomes\" whether it's for governments or corporate firms.</p><p>Palantir offers a couple of services such as Gotham (for governments), Foundry (for corporate clients), and Apollo, a continuous delivery system that manages and deploys Palantir Gotham and Foundry. Securing government contracts is a great way of securing long-term revenue and lets the company on other areas it wishes to expand. Palantir recently announced it has partnered up with<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)Web Services.</p><p>The company had a pretty good year with 47% YoY Revenue growth for full-year 2020 and expects that growth to be bigger than 30% for 2021. Data is slowly becoming the most valuable commodity on the planet and Palantir is exactly where it needs to be to take advantage of that. Data collecting and analyzing isn't going to slow down in the years to come, it's only going to accelerate. And that's why Palantir is going to win and win big.</p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why Palantir Is a Must-Have Stock for Long Term Investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why Palantir Is a Must-Have Stock for Long Term Investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 15:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/17/heres-why-palantir-is-a-must-have-stock-for-long-t/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In this video, I will be talking aboutPalantir(NYSE:PLTR)again and explain why it should be in everyone's long-term portfolio. Palantir is in the business of \"predicting future outcomes\" whether it's ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/17/heres-why-palantir-is-a-must-have-stock-for-long-t/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/17/heres-why-palantir-is-a-must-have-stock-for-long-t/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151684793","content_text":"In this video, I will be talking aboutPalantir(NYSE:PLTR)again and explain why it should be in everyone's long-term portfolio. Palantir is in the business of \"predicting future outcomes\" whether it's for governments or corporate firms.Palantir offers a couple of services such as Gotham (for governments), Foundry (for corporate clients), and Apollo, a continuous delivery system that manages and deploys Palantir Gotham and Foundry. Securing government contracts is a great way of securing long-term revenue and lets the company on other areas it wishes to expand. Palantir recently announced it has partnered up withAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)Web Services.The company had a pretty good year with 47% YoY Revenue growth for full-year 2020 and expects that growth to be bigger than 30% for 2021. Data is slowly becoming the most valuable commodity on the planet and Palantir is exactly where it needs to be to take advantage of that. Data collecting and analyzing isn't going to slow down in the years to come, it's only going to accelerate. And that's why Palantir is going to win and win big.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1022,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366106318,"gmtCreate":1614403173334,"gmtModify":1703477341104,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366106318","repostId":"368545133","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":368545133,"gmtCreate":1614342217720,"gmtModify":1703476627398,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"为什么这次跳水不简单，深入聊聊美债，美股和通胀的关系","htmlText":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。1","listText":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。1","text":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么 国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3fbb1fc92c3ad45ccb74beee9bbd7","width":"1245","height":"687"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd734dfde270e96a7e2f384139ab2a67","width":"532","height":"377"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4674893cbdcc73f158470c94a3e1f9de","width":"838","height":"484"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368545133","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381584573,"gmtCreate":1612970827492,"gmtModify":1703767805336,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]","listText":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381584573","repostId":"2110201405","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380734419,"gmtCreate":1612588044631,"gmtModify":1703763870767,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380734419","repostId":"380140689","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":380140689,"gmtCreate":1612526989437,"gmtModify":1703763125009,"author":{"id":"58341441844653","authorId":"58341441844653","name":"孟浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3af5b59c3e4676ee72cb6e0fea0279b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"财报超预期，为何Unity不涨反跌？","htmlText":"2月4日盘后，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a> 发布Q4财报，财报显示Unity营收和净利均超分析师预期，然而财报后股价却不涨反跌，到底发生了啥？ Unity财报超预期 Unity第4季度总收入达到2.2亿美元，同比增长39%，超过分析师预期的2.05亿美元。非美会计准则下Unity的营业利润率为-9%好于去年同期的-15%。截至2020年12月31日，截至2019年12月31日的过去12个月里，有793个客户每个客户创造了超过10万美元的收入，而截至2019年12月31日的客户只有600个。截至2020年12月31日，以美元计算的净扩张率为138%，而截至2019年12月31日的净扩张率为133%。受到了基于股票的薪酬支出增加的影响。2020年4季度运营亏损为8080万美元，占收入的37%，去年同期运营亏损为4860万美元，占收入的31%。2020年4季度非gaap运营损失为2,010万美元，或营收的9%，而2019年第4季度非gaap运营损失为2390万美元，或营收的15%。 基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.31美元，而2019年第四季度的基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.97美元。基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.10美元，而2019年第四季度基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.79美元。 2020年第四季度，经营活动提供的净现金为1480万美元，而去年同期经营活动提供的净现金为90万美元。2020年第四季度的自由现金流为360万美元，而去年同期为970万美元。截至2020年12月31日，现金、现金等价物和限制性现金为13亿美元，而截至2019年12月31日为1亿美元。 分业务来看 Unity主要提供两种订阅服务：Create Solutions（","listText":"2月4日盘后，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a> 发布Q4财报，财报显示Unity营收和净利均超分析师预期，然而财报后股价却不涨反跌，到底发生了啥？ Unity财报超预期 Unity第4季度总收入达到2.2亿美元，同比增长39%，超过分析师预期的2.05亿美元。非美会计准则下Unity的营业利润率为-9%好于去年同期的-15%。截至2020年12月31日，截至2019年12月31日的过去12个月里，有793个客户每个客户创造了超过10万美元的收入，而截至2019年12月31日的客户只有600个。截至2020年12月31日，以美元计算的净扩张率为138%，而截至2019年12月31日的净扩张率为133%。受到了基于股票的薪酬支出增加的影响。2020年4季度运营亏损为8080万美元，占收入的37%，去年同期运营亏损为4860万美元，占收入的31%。2020年4季度非gaap运营损失为2,010万美元，或营收的9%，而2019年第4季度非gaap运营损失为2390万美元，或营收的15%。 基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.31美元，而2019年第四季度的基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.97美元。基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.10美元，而2019年第四季度基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.79美元。 2020年第四季度，经营活动提供的净现金为1480万美元，而去年同期经营活动提供的净现金为90万美元。2020年第四季度的自由现金流为360万美元，而去年同期为970万美元。截至2020年12月31日，现金、现金等价物和限制性现金为13亿美元，而截至2019年12月31日为1亿美元。 分业务来看 Unity主要提供两种订阅服务：Create Solutions（","text":"2月4日盘后，$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 发布Q4财报，财报显示Unity营收和净利均超分析师预期，然而财报后股价却不涨反跌，到底发生了啥？ Unity财报超预期 Unity第4季度总收入达到2.2亿美元，同比增长39%，超过分析师预期的2.05亿美元。非美会计准则下Unity的营业利润率为-9%好于去年同期的-15%。截至2020年12月31日，截至2019年12月31日的过去12个月里，有793个客户每个客户创造了超过10万美元的收入，而截至2019年12月31日的客户只有600个。截至2020年12月31日，以美元计算的净扩张率为138%，而截至2019年12月31日的净扩张率为133%。受到了基于股票的薪酬支出增加的影响。2020年4季度运营亏损为8080万美元，占收入的37%，去年同期运营亏损为4860万美元，占收入的31%。2020年4季度非gaap运营损失为2,010万美元，或营收的9%，而2019年第4季度非gaap运营损失为2390万美元，或营收的15%。 基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.31美元，而2019年第四季度的基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.97美元。基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.10美元，而2019年第四季度基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.79美元。 2020年第四季度，经营活动提供的净现金为1480万美元，而去年同期经营活动提供的净现金为90万美元。2020年第四季度的自由现金流为360万美元，而去年同期为970万美元。截至2020年12月31日，现金、现金等价物和限制性现金为13亿美元，而截至2019年12月31日为1亿美元。 分业务来看 Unity主要提供两种订阅服务：Create Solutions（","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cb3200ba19ca5d498a3ec4f055ac807","width":"1334","height":"756"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f3b9af829a56e9158f572a0d9cffa54","width":"1330","height":"752"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80adb7c7bcfe8ba17993b83ed508aa8","width":"654","height":"410"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380140689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316223376,"gmtCreate":1611934185695,"gmtModify":1703756715722,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316223376","repostId":"311729178","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":311729178,"gmtCreate":1611830340000,"gmtModify":1703754451031,"author":{"id":"3524030243818067","authorId":"3524030243818067","name":"巴伦周刊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a88e8bd37e8c66a6dfdca78e1466369","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"散户继续反围剿华尔街之狼，谁在GameStop逼空战中躺赢和躺枪","htmlText":"文 | 《巴伦周刊》中文版撰稿人 郭力群 编辑 | 康娟 GameStop逼空大战带来的影响开始蔓延到整个市场。但记住：别人恐惧时我贪婪，别人贪婪时我恐惧。 GameStop（GME）等被大量做空的股票给整个股市带来的影响终于显现。周三（1月27日），美股市场大幅回落，道指、标普500和纳指收盘分别下跌2.05%、2.57%和2.61%。GameStop当日继续飙升，收于347.51美元，涨幅134.8%。 《巴伦周刊》在近期报道中多次谈到股市可能出现回调，就差一个催化剂了。现在看来，GameStop就是这个催化剂。金融公司Raymond James策略师塔维斯·麦考特(Tavis McCourt)称，GameStop等股票暴涨后出现的逼空已经造成了一定程度的连锁效应，做空股票的对冲基金被追缴保证金，由于已经蒙受了巨额损失，它们不得不抛售自己持有的股票套现来缴纳保证金，这种抛售操作进而给大盘造成了拖累。 监管机构看不下去了 逼空给整个股市造成的影响引起了监管机构的注意。据《巴伦周刊》报道，马萨诸塞州最高证券监管机构称，GameStop需要“降温”，纽交所应该暂停其股票交易30天。该机构表示，GameStop的交易存在“系统性”问题，经验不足的散户没有意识到自己承担着什么样的风险，可能会因此受到伤害。 然而一些散户在接受《巴伦周刊》采访时称 ，他们通过押注GameStop股票或期权赚到了足以“改变自己人生”的钱。Reddit论坛上的Wall Street Bets社区用户说他们比空头更胜一筹。S3 Partners的数据显示，做空GameStop的空头已经损失了50亿美元，逼空还在继续，亏损也还在扩大。 美国证券交易委员会(SEC)周三收盘后发布公告称，该机构非常关注目前期权和股票市场出现的波动，正在和其他监管机构一起评估当前的市场形势。SEC公告一出，GameStop","listText":"文 | 《巴伦周刊》中文版撰稿人 郭力群 编辑 | 康娟 GameStop逼空大战带来的影响开始蔓延到整个市场。但记住：别人恐惧时我贪婪，别人贪婪时我恐惧。 GameStop（GME）等被大量做空的股票给整个股市带来的影响终于显现。周三（1月27日），美股市场大幅回落，道指、标普500和纳指收盘分别下跌2.05%、2.57%和2.61%。GameStop当日继续飙升，收于347.51美元，涨幅134.8%。 《巴伦周刊》在近期报道中多次谈到股市可能出现回调，就差一个催化剂了。现在看来，GameStop就是这个催化剂。金融公司Raymond James策略师塔维斯·麦考特(Tavis McCourt)称，GameStop等股票暴涨后出现的逼空已经造成了一定程度的连锁效应，做空股票的对冲基金被追缴保证金，由于已经蒙受了巨额损失，它们不得不抛售自己持有的股票套现来缴纳保证金，这种抛售操作进而给大盘造成了拖累。 监管机构看不下去了 逼空给整个股市造成的影响引起了监管机构的注意。据《巴伦周刊》报道，马萨诸塞州最高证券监管机构称，GameStop需要“降温”，纽交所应该暂停其股票交易30天。该机构表示，GameStop的交易存在“系统性”问题，经验不足的散户没有意识到自己承担着什么样的风险，可能会因此受到伤害。 然而一些散户在接受《巴伦周刊》采访时称 ，他们通过押注GameStop股票或期权赚到了足以“改变自己人生”的钱。Reddit论坛上的Wall Street Bets社区用户说他们比空头更胜一筹。S3 Partners的数据显示，做空GameStop的空头已经损失了50亿美元，逼空还在继续，亏损也还在扩大。 美国证券交易委员会(SEC)周三收盘后发布公告称，该机构非常关注目前期权和股票市场出现的波动，正在和其他监管机构一起评估当前的市场形势。SEC公告一出，GameStop","text":"文 | 《巴伦周刊》中文版撰稿人 郭力群 编辑 | 康娟 GameStop逼空大战带来的影响开始蔓延到整个市场。但记住：别人恐惧时我贪婪，别人贪婪时我恐惧。 GameStop（GME）等被大量做空的股票给整个股市带来的影响终于显现。周三（1月27日），美股市场大幅回落，道指、标普500和纳指收盘分别下跌2.05%、2.57%和2.61%。GameStop当日继续飙升，收于347.51美元，涨幅134.8%。 《巴伦周刊》在近期报道中多次谈到股市可能出现回调，就差一个催化剂了。现在看来，GameStop就是这个催化剂。金融公司Raymond James策略师塔维斯·麦考特(Tavis McCourt)称，GameStop等股票暴涨后出现的逼空已经造成了一定程度的连锁效应，做空股票的对冲基金被追缴保证金，由于已经蒙受了巨额损失，它们不得不抛售自己持有的股票套现来缴纳保证金，这种抛售操作进而给大盘造成了拖累。 监管机构看不下去了 逼空给整个股市造成的影响引起了监管机构的注意。据《巴伦周刊》报道，马萨诸塞州最高证券监管机构称，GameStop需要“降温”，纽交所应该暂停其股票交易30天。该机构表示，GameStop的交易存在“系统性”问题，经验不足的散户没有意识到自己承担着什么样的风险，可能会因此受到伤害。 然而一些散户在接受《巴伦周刊》采访时称 ，他们通过押注GameStop股票或期权赚到了足以“改变自己人生”的钱。Reddit论坛上的Wall Street Bets社区用户说他们比空头更胜一筹。S3 Partners的数据显示，做空GameStop的空头已经损失了50亿美元，逼空还在继续，亏损也还在扩大。 美国证券交易委员会(SEC)周三收盘后发布公告称，该机构非常关注目前期权和股票市场出现的波动，正在和其他监管机构一起评估当前的市场形势。SEC公告一出，GameStop","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bd40c745364aa1b352204d2b87d027","width":"693","height":"359"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06f50b65f93848cd956c485286b8256d","width":"750","height":"248"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89515782c6e5415797d68c7daaab1128","width":"474","height":"266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311729178","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336502561,"gmtCreate":1610115404953,"gmtModify":1703742797985,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336502561","repostId":"1116826620","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394475790,"gmtCreate":1608102748010,"gmtModify":1703851141879,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]","listText":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394475790","repostId":"1172424637","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395098912,"gmtCreate":1607529686636,"gmtModify":1703848541419,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395098912","repostId":"392406407","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":392406407,"gmtCreate":1607500659101,"gmtModify":1703848259993,"author":{"id":"3499642540046495","authorId":"3499642540046495","name":"房东经济学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfaddbb1342d4bbb2d3ec62de517927","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"今年最火的一位女股神","htmlText":"本文来自公众号：房东看世界今天我们聊聊一位最近很火的女股神，她的名字叫Catherine Wood，她是ARK Invest的CEO和基金经理人。如果要问今年美国市场上谁最风光，那肯定有她和她公司ARK的份，Wood现在已经成为无数投资者眼中的女神。Catherine Wood为什么她能火？我们看一下她管理的产品表现就知道了。ARKK vs 纳斯达克100 vs 标普500 2014年底至今各自累计涨幅上面这张图中紫色线为她管理的一只规模最大的ARKK与纳斯达克100（黑色线）以及标普500（黑色）的对比，从2014下半年登场至今，ARKK累计上涨了接近500%，碾压基准标普500，甚至也让作为科技指数之王的纳斯达克100相形见绌。ARKK连续三年都跑赢了基准，并且和其他ARK旗下的四个主动基金一同在今年迎来了大爆发。有人把她说成是“女版巴菲特”，但她的风格和巴菲特完全不一样，巴菲特喜欢投资现金流稳定的成熟公司、而且更倾向于传统行业，对科技股涉猎相对较少；Wood专做科技股，而且都是在足够早的时间就瞄准那些有潜力的科技公司。在她的投资理念中，最重要的一个关键词就是创新。Wood出生于1956年，换句话说她现在已经是个64岁的大妈了，但是她对于创新和新经济的理解远超绝大多数后辈，她抓住了特斯拉、Square、Zoom甚至是比特币的机会。除了天赋以外，和她的个人经历也分不开。她毕业于南加州大学金融经济学专业，1977年开始在Capital Research公司任助理经济师，之后她在1980年转职Jennison Associates任首席经济师。1998年她合伙成立对冲基金Tupelo Capital并任投资组合经理主理该基金的宏观战略。2001年，她转到联博资产管理任投资长，负责管理基金达50亿美元的投资组合。2013年，她从联博辞职创业，于2014年1月成立ARK Inve","listText":"本文来自公众号：房东看世界今天我们聊聊一位最近很火的女股神，她的名字叫Catherine Wood，她是ARK Invest的CEO和基金经理人。如果要问今年美国市场上谁最风光，那肯定有她和她公司ARK的份，Wood现在已经成为无数投资者眼中的女神。Catherine Wood为什么她能火？我们看一下她管理的产品表现就知道了。ARKK vs 纳斯达克100 vs 标普500 2014年底至今各自累计涨幅上面这张图中紫色线为她管理的一只规模最大的ARKK与纳斯达克100（黑色线）以及标普500（黑色）的对比，从2014下半年登场至今，ARKK累计上涨了接近500%，碾压基准标普500，甚至也让作为科技指数之王的纳斯达克100相形见绌。ARKK连续三年都跑赢了基准，并且和其他ARK旗下的四个主动基金一同在今年迎来了大爆发。有人把她说成是“女版巴菲特”，但她的风格和巴菲特完全不一样，巴菲特喜欢投资现金流稳定的成熟公司、而且更倾向于传统行业，对科技股涉猎相对较少；Wood专做科技股，而且都是在足够早的时间就瞄准那些有潜力的科技公司。在她的投资理念中，最重要的一个关键词就是创新。Wood出生于1956年，换句话说她现在已经是个64岁的大妈了，但是她对于创新和新经济的理解远超绝大多数后辈，她抓住了特斯拉、Square、Zoom甚至是比特币的机会。除了天赋以外，和她的个人经历也分不开。她毕业于南加州大学金融经济学专业，1977年开始在Capital Research公司任助理经济师，之后她在1980年转职Jennison Associates任首席经济师。1998年她合伙成立对冲基金Tupelo Capital并任投资组合经理主理该基金的宏观战略。2001年，她转到联博资产管理任投资长，负责管理基金达50亿美元的投资组合。2013年，她从联博辞职创业，于2014年1月成立ARK Inve","text":"本文来自公众号：房东看世界今天我们聊聊一位最近很火的女股神，她的名字叫Catherine Wood，她是ARK Invest的CEO和基金经理人。如果要问今年美国市场上谁最风光，那肯定有她和她公司ARK的份，Wood现在已经成为无数投资者眼中的女神。Catherine Wood为什么她能火？我们看一下她管理的产品表现就知道了。ARKK vs 纳斯达克100 vs 标普500 2014年底至今各自累计涨幅上面这张图中紫色线为她管理的一只规模最大的ARKK与纳斯达克100（黑色线）以及标普500（黑色）的对比，从2014下半年登场至今，ARKK累计上涨了接近500%，碾压基准标普500，甚至也让作为科技指数之王的纳斯达克100相形见绌。ARKK连续三年都跑赢了基准，并且和其他ARK旗下的四个主动基金一同在今年迎来了大爆发。有人把她说成是“女版巴菲特”，但她的风格和巴菲特完全不一样，巴菲特喜欢投资现金流稳定的成熟公司、而且更倾向于传统行业，对科技股涉猎相对较少；Wood专做科技股，而且都是在足够早的时间就瞄准那些有潜力的科技公司。在她的投资理念中，最重要的一个关键词就是创新。Wood出生于1956年，换句话说她现在已经是个64岁的大妈了，但是她对于创新和新经济的理解远超绝大多数后辈，她抓住了特斯拉、Square、Zoom甚至是比特币的机会。除了天赋以外，和她的个人经历也分不开。她毕业于南加州大学金融经济学专业，1977年开始在Capital Research公司任助理经济师，之后她在1980年转职Jennison Associates任首席经济师。1998年她合伙成立对冲基金Tupelo Capital并任投资组合经理主理该基金的宏观战略。2001年，她转到联博资产管理任投资长，负责管理基金达50亿美元的投资组合。2013年，她从联博辞职创业，于2014年1月成立ARK Inve","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97bb7924b5cdfce996be47d988193e0f","width":"660","height":"371"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03fc602704168bd154f831a312d7d3d","width":"688","height":"305"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48887879ceb2887aff33fade3bc425b","width":"688","height":"283"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392406407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392232656,"gmtCreate":1607443826375,"gmtModify":1703848004079,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392232656","repostId":"1138321330","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396772120,"gmtCreate":1607331879160,"gmtModify":1703847116092,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396772120","repostId":"2088347723","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396493894,"gmtCreate":1607239112618,"gmtModify":1703846860880,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]","listText":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396493894","repostId":"1173401372","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173401372","pubTimestamp":1599818652,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173401372?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-11 18:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"抄作业啦！重仓特斯拉业绩暴涨，ARK这两天疯狂抄底","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173401372","media":"美港电讯","summary":"科技股投资尖子生的作业，不仅要抄，而且要好好抄。这个夏天，美股科技股在$特斯拉$、$苹果$的带领下，走出了一条几乎不可复刻的飙涨之路。而特斯拉也从3月底的深坑一步一步从300美元涨到了2000美元，成为全球市值最高的汽车制造公司。而年初就一直看好特斯拉，而且给出7000美元目标价的ARK创新ETF也因为重仓特斯拉，年初至今的回报率高达40%。这个时候，“抄作业投资法”理念突然兴起。先来看一下这个ARK ETF有啥来头。","content":"<blockquote>科技股投资尖子生的作业，不仅要抄，而且要好好抄。</blockquote><p><b>01 “抄作业投资法”</b></p><p>这个夏天，美股科技股在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的带领下，<b>走出了一条几乎不可复刻的飙涨之路</b>。苹果市值突破2万亿，短短2年时间市值就翻了番，重仓苹果可能是巴菲特90年人生做得最正确的事情。而特斯拉也从3月底的深坑一步一步从300美元涨到了2000美元，成为全球市值最高的汽车制造公司。而年初就一直看好特斯拉，而且给出7000美元目标价的ARK创新ETF也因为重仓特斯拉，年初至今的回报率高达40%。所以也有很多投资者问了，<b>这些尖子生的作业我也能抄吗？怎么抄？</b>别着急，往下看。</p><p>最近不管是A股、港股还是美股市场都大幅波动，看好的公司股价一直很高又不敢追，回调下来又担心继续下跌，总是看不准买入和卖出的时机。这个时候，<b>“抄作业投资法”</b>理念突然兴起。赫赫有名的高瓴资本大家也都听过吧，很多投资者都跟随高瓴资本重仓了很多医疗、生物科技赛道的股票和基金，不得不说，也有很多抄作业高分获得者，通过分析高瓴资本做作业的思路成功吃到了不少肉。</p><p>那美股科技股的作业应该抄谁的呢？巴老爷子投资一直非常谨慎，除了苹果，其他的赛道都是传统行业居多。许多投资者一直想寻找下一个苹果，当然，对个人投资者来说主动选股是非常困难的，但ETF可以为投资者提供看到下一代超级成长股的机会。今天就向大家介绍一个美股科技股投资成绩非常优异的ETF，<b>ARK创新ETF</b>。不过抄作业，<b>不仅要抄得对，还得抄的好</b>，我们首先来分析一下这个ETF的业绩情况。</p><p><b>02 回报率超40% 资金狂追</b></p><p>先来看一下这个ARK ETF有啥来头。这个ETF全称叫The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a>，也就是ARK创新ETF，创立于2014年，管理这个基金的基金经理叫Cathie Wood。它是一个主动管理型的交易所交易基金，基金经理可以从行业中寻找个股的增长机会。ARKK通常持有35到55只股票，这一篮子的公司都依赖或受益于<b>新产品或服务开发、诸如DNA技术（“基因组革命”）等科学研究领域的技术进步、能源自动化制造业上的产业革命、共享技术、基础设施及服务（“下一代互联网”）及使金融服务更有效率的技术（“金融技术革命”）</b>。</p><p>这个ETF是专门挖掘新兴行业机会，充分利用行业发展的红利期，找寻投资机会的成长型ETF。从业绩表现来看，年初至今，ARK回报率达到42.48%，相比之下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">标普500ETF</a>-SPDR(SPY)的回报率是4.8%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20ee8af6ca01cf2f37af0c05c574662a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1219\"><span>ARK创新ETF业绩表现</span></p><p>如此优异的表现当然也会吸引更多投资者关注，砸向它的资金自然不在少数。彭博数据显示，整个8月份，ARK创新ETF共获得113.4亿美元资金净流入，其中在8月19日及8月31日，资金净流入分别为1.24亿美元和1.9亿美元，<b>整个8月的资金净流入创下了基金创立以来的月度新高。</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0458784fed1820f797159490dcce8225\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1612\"><span>资金流向总览</span></p><p>科技股热潮来的时候，谁也不想落后于人。业绩优异，受到资金青睐，究竟这支ETF到底重仓了什么神仙股票，能从一个平平无奇的基金成为聚光灯下的宠儿？揭露重仓股之前我们先来看看这位神乎其神的“预言家”——ARK的基金经理Catherine D. Wood。</p><p><b>03 亮眼业绩背后的投资预言家</b></p><p>Catherine D. Wood，拥有近40年的投资经验，毕业后就职于Capital Group，后离职转投Jennison Associates，担任过首席经济学家、股票研究分析师、投资组合经理和董事等多个职位，2014年成立了ARK投资管理公司，于2014年1月成立了ARK投资管理公司。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9344aa9ce7b3eca1cdb8ad4fccc7f0a2\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"380\"><span>ARK投资管理创始人Catherine Wood</span></p><p>2002年，当时<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>在全球才拥有4000万用户，股价也才15-20美元左右，而独具慧眼的Catherine Wood决定投资这家<b>具有“规则破坏性”的公司</b>，直到2009年，亚马逊股价才第一次突破100美元，那一年亚马逊推出了第二代Kindle电子阅读器，此后股价也迎来大爆发。在说到亚马逊的营收增长时，她认为亚马逊受益于创新带来的浪潮，使得其年收入增长在过去20年都能维持在25%左右。亚马逊也证明了，部分公司的营收是可以成几何增长的，意味着这家公司可以维持年营收25%的增长率，而不是在之后几年就开始下滑。Wood管理的几只ETF的选股策略都是一致的，那就是<b>为投资组合增加那些营收具几何倍数增长的、具有行业规则破坏性的潜力股与产业。</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>(ZM.O)也是一个非常典型的例子。早在市场大肆关注到这只股票之前，Wood的投资组合就已经开始建仓，因为她认为这只股票的确是市场破坏者，也缓慢从同业竞争者中获取市场份额。果不其然，之后几个月市场资金疯狂涌入，推高股价，这个时候Wood就开始抛售。</p><p><b>从新兴行业中寻找可以快速增长的个股，并持续持有，等待爆发的时机，这就是这位神奇基金经理的投资理念。</b></p><p><b>04 十大重仓个股：重仓基因编辑赛道</b></p><p>那这只基金到底看中了哪些版块的哪只股票？Wood第一大重仓的股票就是现在新能源市场的新贵——特斯拉，占投资组合的9.55%。今年1月，在特斯拉还没有大爆发之前，Catherine Wood在接受采访时做出了一个非常大胆的预测，<b>未来五年特斯拉每股股价可能会超过6000美元</b>。要知道当时特斯拉才500美元。称她为<b>“特斯拉死忠粉”</b>也不为过，特斯拉不会失去电动汽车市场的可观份额是她的信念之一。后来特斯拉也的确如她所想，在3月探底后回升，且一路飙升至2200美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/821b6044d76a7438f049fd6d78660eb3\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1610\"><span>ARK前十持仓</span></p><p>在分析ARK具体的持仓情况时，小胡发现，其中<b>4家都是生物科技、基因编辑相关的公司。</b></p><p><b>Invitae（NVTA.A）：基因检测公司，被称为“检测界的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">好市多</a>”</b></p><p>其主要营收构成包含癌症筛检、产前筛检、新生儿筛检、成人主动基因健检。该公司还有经营 AltaVoice 平台，提供给客人与医疗单位间的资料分享。该股票在ARKK的资产组合中占7.38％，<b>今年以来已上涨103％。</b></p><p><b>CRISPR Therapeutics（CRSP.O）：基因编辑龙头公司</b></p><p>正在开发基因编辑工具来帮助战胜遗传性疾病和癌症，<b>今年以来上涨了34％。</b></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a>：专注于生物信息分析</b></p><p>提供有关SNP基因分型、拷贝数变异（CNV）、基因组测序、DNA甲基化研究、转录组分析、基因表达谱分析相关的服务。如今的Illumina已经占有了基因组测序领域70%的市场份额。<b>今年上涨了4.3％。</b></p><p><b>Editas Medicin（EDIT.O）：生物医药行业的明星公司</b></p><p>专注于开发精准基因编辑和治疗致命性遗传病的技术，<b>今年以来上涨2.6％。</b></p><p>另外的几家公司也都是各自领域中都是明显的颠覆者，它们的未来潜力没有上限。</p><p><b>Square（AQ.N）：改变了我们的付款，借贷和投资方式</b></p><p>一站式金融服务平台，金融服务界的“亚马逊”，<b>今年以来上涨125％。</b></p><p><b>2U（TWOU.O）：改变了学生访问在线课程的方式</b></p><p>提供云技术软件服务化解决方案的领导者，使非营利性学院或大学能够将高质量的教育传送到任何地方合格的学生，受益于新冠肺炎疫情，<b>该股今年以来已上涨58％。</b></p><p><b>Roku（ROKU.O） ：改变了我们消费电视内容的方式</b></p><p>一家做电视盒子和电视操作系统（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电视os）的流媒体平台公司，占ETF资产组合的4.62％，今年以来涨幅较为温和，<b>上涨 19％。</b></p><p><b>Protolabs：改变了传统制造业</b></p><p>一家提供快速生产小批量3D打印，CNC加工的钣金件和注塑成型定制零件的公司。<b>今年以来上涨了47％。</b></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>（Z.O）：改变了我们搜索、出租、买卖房屋的方式</b></p><p>美国最大的房地产在线信息平台，<b>今年以来已上涨80％，</b>部分原因是低利率促使寻房活动激增。</p><p><b>05 连续两天抄底特斯拉，意欲何为？</b></p><p>小胡追踪这家ETF的每日增减持数据发现，<b>Wood已经连续两天增持特斯拉了，共计增持17.2万股特斯拉，其他大额增持的股票还有Slack(WORK.N)，增持了147万股。</b></p><p>在这轮下跌前景还不明显的情况下加仓科技股可以说非常的冒险了，毕竟很多分析师分析美股回调还远未结束。</p><p>Miller Tabek首席策略师Matt Maley称：“科技股必定还有更多下行空间，(大幅回调)之后才有可能大幅反弹。从长远来看，这些公司都是伟大的公司，但是目前它们估值过高，我认为它们还会遭遇更大的跌幅，并且也不会像很多人想象的那样迅速反弹。”</p><p>每日调仓只是为短线投资者提供一个思路，如果想要发现ZOOM这样的10倍股，还是要好好分析上面几个基因革命领域的公司，有空再写一篇分析这个赛道的文章，挖掘未来几年的爆发潜力股。</p><p>以下是9月9日及9月10日的仓位变化明细：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8695bf4a2d8eb4508bd213c5e2ee11a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1114\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/382b1c7ab2e3a1010741a165957bb8a6\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"4038\"></p><p>抄作业容易，抄好作业难。</p>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n抄作业啦！重仓特斯拉业绩暴涨，ARK这两天疯狂抄底\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-11 18:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1000835&type=news><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>科技股投资尖子生的作业，不仅要抄，而且要好好抄。01 “抄作业投资法”这个夏天，美股科技股在特斯拉、苹果的带领下，走出了一条几乎不可复刻的飙涨之路。苹果市值突破2万亿，短短2年时间市值就翻了番，重仓苹果可能是巴菲特90年人生做得最正确的事情。而特斯拉也从3月底的深坑一步一步从300美元涨到了2000美元，成为全球市值最高的汽车制造公司。而年初就一直看好特斯拉，而且给出7000美元目标价的ARK...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1000835&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18f26a21557b2b9fbf841d276ecb7796","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ROKU":"Roku Inc","ILMN":"Illumina","SPY":"标普500ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1000835&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173401372","content_text":"科技股投资尖子生的作业，不仅要抄，而且要好好抄。01 “抄作业投资法”这个夏天，美股科技股在特斯拉、苹果的带领下，走出了一条几乎不可复刻的飙涨之路。苹果市值突破2万亿，短短2年时间市值就翻了番，重仓苹果可能是巴菲特90年人生做得最正确的事情。而特斯拉也从3月底的深坑一步一步从300美元涨到了2000美元，成为全球市值最高的汽车制造公司。而年初就一直看好特斯拉，而且给出7000美元目标价的ARK创新ETF也因为重仓特斯拉，年初至今的回报率高达40%。所以也有很多投资者问了，这些尖子生的作业我也能抄吗？怎么抄？别着急，往下看。最近不管是A股、港股还是美股市场都大幅波动，看好的公司股价一直很高又不敢追，回调下来又担心继续下跌，总是看不准买入和卖出的时机。这个时候，“抄作业投资法”理念突然兴起。赫赫有名的高瓴资本大家也都听过吧，很多投资者都跟随高瓴资本重仓了很多医疗、生物科技赛道的股票和基金，不得不说，也有很多抄作业高分获得者，通过分析高瓴资本做作业的思路成功吃到了不少肉。那美股科技股的作业应该抄谁的呢？巴老爷子投资一直非常谨慎，除了苹果，其他的赛道都是传统行业居多。许多投资者一直想寻找下一个苹果，当然，对个人投资者来说主动选股是非常困难的，但ETF可以为投资者提供看到下一代超级成长股的机会。今天就向大家介绍一个美股科技股投资成绩非常优异的ETF，ARK创新ETF。不过抄作业，不仅要抄得对，还得抄的好，我们首先来分析一下这个ETF的业绩情况。02 回报率超40% 资金狂追先来看一下这个ARK ETF有啥来头。这个ETF全称叫The ARK Innovation ETF，也就是ARK创新ETF，创立于2014年，管理这个基金的基金经理叫Cathie Wood。它是一个主动管理型的交易所交易基金，基金经理可以从行业中寻找个股的增长机会。ARKK通常持有35到55只股票，这一篮子的公司都依赖或受益于新产品或服务开发、诸如DNA技术（“基因组革命”）等科学研究领域的技术进步、能源自动化制造业上的产业革命、共享技术、基础设施及服务（“下一代互联网”）及使金融服务更有效率的技术（“金融技术革命”）。这个ETF是专门挖掘新兴行业机会，充分利用行业发展的红利期，找寻投资机会的成长型ETF。从业绩表现来看，年初至今，ARK回报率达到42.48%，相比之下，标普500ETF-SPDR(SPY)的回报率是4.8%。ARK创新ETF业绩表现如此优异的表现当然也会吸引更多投资者关注，砸向它的资金自然不在少数。彭博数据显示，整个8月份，ARK创新ETF共获得113.4亿美元资金净流入，其中在8月19日及8月31日，资金净流入分别为1.24亿美元和1.9亿美元，整个8月的资金净流入创下了基金创立以来的月度新高。资金流向总览科技股热潮来的时候，谁也不想落后于人。业绩优异，受到资金青睐，究竟这支ETF到底重仓了什么神仙股票，能从一个平平无奇的基金成为聚光灯下的宠儿？揭露重仓股之前我们先来看看这位神乎其神的“预言家”——ARK的基金经理Catherine D. Wood。03 亮眼业绩背后的投资预言家Catherine D. Wood，拥有近40年的投资经验，毕业后就职于Capital Group，后离职转投Jennison Associates，担任过首席经济学家、股票研究分析师、投资组合经理和董事等多个职位，2014年成立了ARK投资管理公司，于2014年1月成立了ARK投资管理公司。ARK投资管理创始人Catherine Wood2002年，当时亚马逊在全球才拥有4000万用户，股价也才15-20美元左右，而独具慧眼的Catherine Wood决定投资这家具有“规则破坏性”的公司，直到2009年，亚马逊股价才第一次突破100美元，那一年亚马逊推出了第二代Kindle电子阅读器，此后股价也迎来大爆发。在说到亚马逊的营收增长时，她认为亚马逊受益于创新带来的浪潮，使得其年收入增长在过去20年都能维持在25%左右。亚马逊也证明了，部分公司的营收是可以成几何增长的，意味着这家公司可以维持年营收25%的增长率，而不是在之后几年就开始下滑。Wood管理的几只ETF的选股策略都是一致的，那就是为投资组合增加那些营收具几何倍数增长的、具有行业规则破坏性的潜力股与产业。Zoom(ZM.O)也是一个非常典型的例子。早在市场大肆关注到这只股票之前，Wood的投资组合就已经开始建仓，因为她认为这只股票的确是市场破坏者，也缓慢从同业竞争者中获取市场份额。果不其然，之后几个月市场资金疯狂涌入，推高股价，这个时候Wood就开始抛售。从新兴行业中寻找可以快速增长的个股，并持续持有，等待爆发的时机，这就是这位神奇基金经理的投资理念。04 十大重仓个股：重仓基因编辑赛道那这只基金到底看中了哪些版块的哪只股票？Wood第一大重仓的股票就是现在新能源市场的新贵——特斯拉，占投资组合的9.55%。今年1月，在特斯拉还没有大爆发之前，Catherine Wood在接受采访时做出了一个非常大胆的预测，未来五年特斯拉每股股价可能会超过6000美元。要知道当时特斯拉才500美元。称她为“特斯拉死忠粉”也不为过，特斯拉不会失去电动汽车市场的可观份额是她的信念之一。后来特斯拉也的确如她所想，在3月探底后回升，且一路飙升至2200美元。ARK前十持仓在分析ARK具体的持仓情况时，小胡发现，其中4家都是生物科技、基因编辑相关的公司。Invitae（NVTA.A）：基因检测公司，被称为“检测界的好市多”其主要营收构成包含癌症筛检、产前筛检、新生儿筛检、成人主动基因健检。该公司还有经营 AltaVoice 平台，提供给客人与医疗单位间的资料分享。该股票在ARKK的资产组合中占7.38％，今年以来已上涨103％。CRISPR Therapeutics（CRSP.O）：基因编辑龙头公司正在开发基因编辑工具来帮助战胜遗传性疾病和癌症，今年以来上涨了34％。Illumina：专注于生物信息分析提供有关SNP基因分型、拷贝数变异（CNV）、基因组测序、DNA甲基化研究、转录组分析、基因表达谱分析相关的服务。如今的Illumina已经占有了基因组测序领域70%的市场份额。今年上涨了4.3％。Editas Medicin（EDIT.O）：生物医药行业的明星公司专注于开发精准基因编辑和治疗致命性遗传病的技术，今年以来上涨2.6％。另外的几家公司也都是各自领域中都是明显的颠覆者，它们的未来潜力没有上限。Square（AQ.N）：改变了我们的付款，借贷和投资方式一站式金融服务平台，金融服务界的“亚马逊”，今年以来上涨125％。2U（TWOU.O）：改变了学生访问在线课程的方式提供云技术软件服务化解决方案的领导者，使非营利性学院或大学能够将高质量的教育传送到任何地方合格的学生，受益于新冠肺炎疫情，该股今年以来已上涨58％。Roku（ROKU.O） ：改变了我们消费电视内容的方式一家做电视盒子和电视操作系统（智能电视os）的流媒体平台公司，占ETF资产组合的4.62％，今年以来涨幅较为温和，上涨 19％。Protolabs：改变了传统制造业一家提供快速生产小批量3D打印，CNC加工的钣金件和注塑成型定制零件的公司。今年以来上涨了47％。Zillow（Z.O）：改变了我们搜索、出租、买卖房屋的方式美国最大的房地产在线信息平台，今年以来已上涨80％，部分原因是低利率促使寻房活动激增。05 连续两天抄底特斯拉，意欲何为？小胡追踪这家ETF的每日增减持数据发现，Wood已经连续两天增持特斯拉了，共计增持17.2万股特斯拉，其他大额增持的股票还有Slack(WORK.N)，增持了147万股。在这轮下跌前景还不明显的情况下加仓科技股可以说非常的冒险了，毕竟很多分析师分析美股回调还远未结束。Miller Tabek首席策略师Matt 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12:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"如果全面关停课外培训班会怎么样？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101656645","media":"古三古四","summary":"校外教育培训机构，本质上是家长们厮杀的战场。","content":"<p>教育界发生一件大事，教育培训监管司正式成立！</p>\n<p>最近对教育培训的相关传闻挺多的，大多是谣言。</p>\n<p>但背后对应的是一股汹涌的民意，就是对校外教育培训的强烈不满。</p>\n<p>各类传言下面，点赞率最高的往往是“取缔一切校外教育培训机构”。</p>\n<p>太多家长痛恨补习班了，花钱，费力，全家无比痛苦。</p>\n<p>而家长们对教育的追求，也被评为内卷。</p>\n<p><b>中国的高考，打的是排名战，不是水平战。</b>能不能上好大学，与你的水平无关，只与你的排名相关。</p>\n<p>既然是排名赛，本质上就是竞争稀缺资源，那各家家长使出吃奶的劲，花大钱去校外辅导，目的只有一个，在高考的排名战中一举超越竞争对手。</p>\n<p><b>校外教育培训机构，本质上是家长们厮杀的战场。</b></p>\n<p>校内教育，大家接受的东西都一样，那我如何实现弯道超车呢？咱换个战场比，比钱多少，比父母辅导能力，比管理孩子的能力。</p>\n<p>这个厮杀战，不是以班级为单位展开的，而是以省为单位展开的，即使你在班上第一名，也没用，你要拼的是全省第N名。</p>\n<p><b>而指挥这场战役的，是高考。</b></p>\n<p><b>一考定终身。</b></p>\n<p>在北京，有家长花数百万买学区房，有人上培训班年支出超过十万。</p>\n<p>十年前，学大教育一对一辅导曾收取过上百万一个人的天价。</p>\n<p>有人说，中国的家长疯了，为了孩子的教育，这么大的投资值得吗？</p>\n<p>值。非常值。</p>\n<p>如果你考进211，985，大部分家长的投入就基本回来了，因为这样的大学生均年经费都是几十万。比如复旦大学，年支出经费就八十亿，如果按学生数量算，人均一年十六万，但学生只需要交几千块的学费。这个经费还没有计算土地，因为很多大学的土地是免费划拨的。</p>\n<p>你进了好的大学，相当于你可以享受到巨额的财政补贴。</p>\n<p>如果读到博士，总补贴金额没有一百万，也有大几十万。</p>\n<p>这还只是读大学时享受到的。读完大学呢？海外留学，国内公务员，国内名企，一生下来，收入可能与普通大学毕业生相差千万级别以上。</p>\n<p>这么大的产出，当然要拼。</p>\n<p>当然，教育这种东西，投资回报率是一种概率，读北大都可能读成废材，人不是工业品，偶然性因素很多。</p>\n<p>但人决策行动时，都需要面向不确定性，进好学校有好前途，这是大概率。</p>\n<p><b>既然概率高，就值得追求。</b></p>\n<p>那网上取消培训班的要求出现会缓解这种竞争吗？</p>\n<p>有人想象了这么一幅美好的画面，从此孩子们的竞争只发生在学校的课堂里，下了课没作业，然后开心的玩耍，然后父母晚上不再痛苦，不再逼孩子写作业了，不再接送孩子上培训班了。</p>\n<p><b>这美好的一切真的会发生吗？</b></p>\n<p>假设有一天真发生了。</p>\n<p>张三他妈发现，张三班上的同学回家后全在打游戏，看电视，她一下就欣喜若狂，什么是机会？对手放松，那就是我的机会。</p>\n<p>没有校外辅导班，好办，咱把老师请回家，一请请三个。晚上六点到十二点，每个老师两小时，小样，瞧我家张三，那分数蹭蹭蹭地往上涨。</p>\n<p>张三他妈刚刚高兴了半学期。李四妈妈得知了这个消息。</p>\n<p>就你家有钱？你请的起，我就不能请？我能把985的位置让给你吗？不行。</p>\n<p>你天天晚上请，我就天天晚上再加上周六周日全请，全排满。<b>我怎么可能竞争不过你？不就是比钱多吗？比房子大吗？老娘舍得在孩子身上花钱。</b></p>\n<p>再过几天，全校家里有条件的全部都把一对一家教老师请上了，由于需求旺盛，普通的一对一老师的价格从一小时二百上涨到一小时三四百了，优秀的一小时涨到五百了。</p>\n<p>然后家里困难一点的学生家长面对这个情况就傻眼了。</p>\n<p>原来可以上培训班，一个老师教二十个孩子，我一小时八十一百就行了，现在我得花五百一小时，咱家穷实在是花不起啊。</p>\n<p><b>取消培训班，意味着原来小班制教学全部要换为一对一家教模式，这就造成了供给不足。</b></p>\n<p>这时，所有的在一二线城市的大学生们，将疯狂地冲进家庭成为家教老师，哪怕挂科，也要疯狂，月入上万，谁不干？</p>\n<p>而三四线城市的家长将无计可施，就算出的起钱，但优秀的人才都在一二线啊。</p>\n<p>农村高中，就不要想了，集体躺平吧，除了个别天才，你就别指望了。可能当地最好的老师全跑到一二线城市当家教去了，五百一小时，一晚上可能上千的收入，还呆在五线县城和农村做什么？</p>\n<p>这时，中产还有新招。培训老师太贵，<b>我就从需求方转为供给者。</b></p>\n<p>这什么意思呢？打个比方说，如果滴滴一公里涨价到二十块，你去十公里外的公司上班要二百，那你会干什么？你会辞职去开滴滴，你会从消费者转变为供给者。</p>\n<p>中产家庭面对这种情况，会让知识水平较高的妈妈们离职，在家成为专职老师，白天就自学课程，天天在网上听名师讲课，晚上就自己亲自动手教小孩。</p>\n<p>相当于这个妈妈每晚四小时的工作收入一千多。</p>\n<p>鸡娃大战将进入贴身肉搏的程度，以至于不少妈妈们在孩子高考完了，立马就变身职业家教了。</p>\n<p>而富人将轻松用金钱将穷人打败，知识分子中产阶级孕育出一批比学校老师还牛的家长型家教，而四五线小县城农村的学生，则集体躺平，真正实现素质教育，下了课就和父母进行吵架素质训练，教不了，就只能骂了。</p>\n<p>取消培训班真就这么香吗？不见得喔。</p>","source":"lsy1623902592118","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>如果全面关停课外培训班会怎么样？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如果全面关停课外培训班会怎么样？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 12:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkyKEz8c0dUQX-BjZQbpJA><strong>古三古四</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>教育界发生一件大事，教育培训监管司正式成立！\n最近对教育培训的相关传闻挺多的，大多是谣言。\n但背后对应的是一股汹涌的民意，就是对校外教育培训的强烈不满。\n各类传言下面，点赞率最高的往往是“取缔一切校外教育培训机构”。\n太多家长痛恨补习班了，花钱，费力，全家无比痛苦。\n而家长们对教育的追求，也被评为内卷。\n中国的高考，打的是排名战，不是水平战。能不能上好大学，与你的水平无关，只与你的排名相关。\n既然...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkyKEz8c0dUQX-BjZQbpJA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/428db54350354f66d13560331e078b53","relate_stocks":{"09901":"新东方-S","GOTU":"高途","YQ":"一起教育科技","01797":"东方甄选","IH":"洪恩","ZME":"掌门教育","EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来","COE":"51TALK","DAO":"有道"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkyKEz8c0dUQX-BjZQbpJA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101656645","content_text":"教育界发生一件大事，教育培训监管司正式成立！\n最近对教育培训的相关传闻挺多的，大多是谣言。\n但背后对应的是一股汹涌的民意，就是对校外教育培训的强烈不满。\n各类传言下面，点赞率最高的往往是“取缔一切校外教育培训机构”。\n太多家长痛恨补习班了，花钱，费力，全家无比痛苦。\n而家长们对教育的追求，也被评为内卷。\n中国的高考，打的是排名战，不是水平战。能不能上好大学，与你的水平无关，只与你的排名相关。\n既然是排名赛，本质上就是竞争稀缺资源，那各家家长使出吃奶的劲，花大钱去校外辅导，目的只有一个，在高考的排名战中一举超越竞争对手。\n校外教育培训机构，本质上是家长们厮杀的战场。\n校内教育，大家接受的东西都一样，那我如何实现弯道超车呢？咱换个战场比，比钱多少，比父母辅导能力，比管理孩子的能力。\n这个厮杀战，不是以班级为单位展开的，而是以省为单位展开的，即使你在班上第一名，也没用，你要拼的是全省第N名。\n而指挥这场战役的，是高考。\n一考定终身。\n在北京，有家长花数百万买学区房，有人上培训班年支出超过十万。\n十年前，学大教育一对一辅导曾收取过上百万一个人的天价。\n有人说，中国的家长疯了，为了孩子的教育，这么大的投资值得吗？\n值。非常值。\n如果你考进211，985，大部分家长的投入就基本回来了，因为这样的大学生均年经费都是几十万。比如复旦大学，年支出经费就八十亿，如果按学生数量算，人均一年十六万，但学生只需要交几千块的学费。这个经费还没有计算土地，因为很多大学的土地是免费划拨的。\n你进了好的大学，相当于你可以享受到巨额的财政补贴。\n如果读到博士，总补贴金额没有一百万，也有大几十万。\n这还只是读大学时享受到的。读完大学呢？海外留学，国内公务员，国内名企，一生下来，收入可能与普通大学毕业生相差千万级别以上。\n这么大的产出，当然要拼。\n当然，教育这种东西，投资回报率是一种概率，读北大都可能读成废材，人不是工业品，偶然性因素很多。\n但人决策行动时，都需要面向不确定性，进好学校有好前途，这是大概率。\n既然概率高，就值得追求。\n那网上取消培训班的要求出现会缓解这种竞争吗？\n有人想象了这么一幅美好的画面，从此孩子们的竞争只发生在学校的课堂里，下了课没作业，然后开心的玩耍，然后父母晚上不再痛苦，不再逼孩子写作业了，不再接送孩子上培训班了。\n这美好的一切真的会发生吗？\n假设有一天真发生了。\n张三他妈发现，张三班上的同学回家后全在打游戏，看电视，她一下就欣喜若狂，什么是机会？对手放松，那就是我的机会。\n没有校外辅导班，好办，咱把老师请回家，一请请三个。晚上六点到十二点，每个老师两小时，小样，瞧我家张三，那分数蹭蹭蹭地往上涨。\n张三他妈刚刚高兴了半学期。李四妈妈得知了这个消息。\n就你家有钱？你请的起，我就不能请？我能把985的位置让给你吗？不行。\n你天天晚上请，我就天天晚上再加上周六周日全请，全排满。我怎么可能竞争不过你？不就是比钱多吗？比房子大吗？老娘舍得在孩子身上花钱。\n再过几天，全校家里有条件的全部都把一对一家教老师请上了，由于需求旺盛，普通的一对一老师的价格从一小时二百上涨到一小时三四百了，优秀的一小时涨到五百了。\n然后家里困难一点的学生家长面对这个情况就傻眼了。\n原来可以上培训班，一个老师教二十个孩子，我一小时八十一百就行了，现在我得花五百一小时，咱家穷实在是花不起啊。\n取消培训班，意味着原来小班制教学全部要换为一对一家教模式，这就造成了供给不足。\n这时，所有的在一二线城市的大学生们，将疯狂地冲进家庭成为家教老师，哪怕挂科，也要疯狂，月入上万，谁不干？\n而三四线城市的家长将无计可施，就算出的起钱，但优秀的人才都在一二线啊。\n农村高中，就不要想了，集体躺平吧，除了个别天才，你就别指望了。可能当地最好的老师全跑到一二线城市当家教去了，五百一小时，一晚上可能上千的收入，还呆在五线县城和农村做什么？\n这时，中产还有新招。培训老师太贵，我就从需求方转为供给者。\n这什么意思呢？打个比方说，如果滴滴一公里涨价到二十块，你去十公里外的公司上班要二百，那你会干什么？你会辞职去开滴滴，你会从消费者转变为供给者。\n中产家庭面对这种情况，会让知识水平较高的妈妈们离职，在家成为专职老师，白天就自学课程，天天在网上听名师讲课，晚上就自己亲自动手教小孩。\n相当于这个妈妈每晚四小时的工作收入一千多。\n鸡娃大战将进入贴身肉搏的程度，以至于不少妈妈们在孩子高考完了，立马就变身职业家教了。\n而富人将轻松用金钱将穷人打败，知识分子中产阶级孕育出一批比学校老师还牛的家长型家教，而四五线小县城农村的学生，则集体躺平，真正实现素质教育，下了课就和父母进行吵架素质训练，教不了，就只能骂了。\n取消培训班真就这么香吗？不见得喔。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1522,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342174307,"gmtCreate":1618194088209,"gmtModify":1618194088209,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[哟哟]","listText":"[哟哟]","text":"[哟哟]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342174307","repostId":"340387517","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":340387517,"gmtCreate":1617340315939,"gmtModify":1617343033674,"author":{"id":"3578967738122879","authorId":"3578967738122879","name":"消金界","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/722cc84b89c4c2118f15de1353d62ff4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"腾讯背书下股价依然腰斩，移卡2020年净利暴涨只是玩“财技”？","htmlText":"在港上市的移卡近期公布了其2020年业绩报告，作为2020年6月登陆港交所之后发布的第一份全年业绩报告，移卡的这份成绩单可以用差强人意来形容，而在其业绩发布的第二日，二级市场投资者也纷纷“用脚投票”，当日其股价应声大跌超11%，而在3月29日，移卡股价则再次大跌超8%，两日累计跌幅接近20%，显然，移卡这份的最新的答卷并没有让市场满意。事实上，进入2021年以来，借助公司不断横向并购等“利好”信息的刺激，移卡股价曾迎来一波疯涨，从1月4号底部的37.6港元/股涨至2月17号的122.7港元/股，期间涨幅高达221%。截至4月2日发稿，其最新股价虽开始反弹，但较峰值已经腰斩。出现上述情况下的原因，刨除受进入2月下旬以来港股指数整体回调的影响外，消金界认为，我们或许能从其这份最新财报里得出不一样的答案。&nbsp;营收微增净利却暴涨，盈利能力藏“猫腻”“移卡”全称为深圳市移卡科技有限公司，成立于2011年，初始业务为小微商户提供支付服务，2014年获得央行颁发的全国银行卡收单许可和移动电话支付许可证，成为国内16家同时具有上述两项牌照的支付机构之一；另由于创始人具有腾讯背景，在成立初期便获得腾讯的战略投资，再借助微信支付的这一生态，截止到2019年，其年度支付交易总量就已经突破1.5万亿元，并且在2020年6月成功登陆港交所主板市场，成为继汇付支付之后内地第二家在港上市企业。业务布局层面，目前移卡主要有两大业务线，一是传统一站式支付业务线，二是在前者服务用户基础上所形成的科技赋能商业业务线。具体各业务条线又根据业务实质及服务客群进行了产品归类，详细如下：经营数据方面，根据其最新业绩数据显示，2020年，一站式支付业务业务服务商户数达到551万家，较2019年的527万户同比微增4.5%，透过支付服务获取服务的消费者者到达6.45亿人，较2019年的3.67亿人同比增长75.5%","listText":"在港上市的移卡近期公布了其2020年业绩报告，作为2020年6月登陆港交所之后发布的第一份全年业绩报告，移卡的这份成绩单可以用差强人意来形容，而在其业绩发布的第二日，二级市场投资者也纷纷“用脚投票”，当日其股价应声大跌超11%，而在3月29日，移卡股价则再次大跌超8%，两日累计跌幅接近20%，显然，移卡这份的最新的答卷并没有让市场满意。事实上，进入2021年以来，借助公司不断横向并购等“利好”信息的刺激，移卡股价曾迎来一波疯涨，从1月4号底部的37.6港元/股涨至2月17号的122.7港元/股，期间涨幅高达221%。截至4月2日发稿，其最新股价虽开始反弹，但较峰值已经腰斩。出现上述情况下的原因，刨除受进入2月下旬以来港股指数整体回调的影响外，消金界认为，我们或许能从其这份最新财报里得出不一样的答案。&nbsp;营收微增净利却暴涨，盈利能力藏“猫腻”“移卡”全称为深圳市移卡科技有限公司，成立于2011年，初始业务为小微商户提供支付服务，2014年获得央行颁发的全国银行卡收单许可和移动电话支付许可证，成为国内16家同时具有上述两项牌照的支付机构之一；另由于创始人具有腾讯背景，在成立初期便获得腾讯的战略投资，再借助微信支付的这一生态，截止到2019年，其年度支付交易总量就已经突破1.5万亿元，并且在2020年6月成功登陆港交所主板市场，成为继汇付支付之后内地第二家在港上市企业。业务布局层面，目前移卡主要有两大业务线，一是传统一站式支付业务线，二是在前者服务用户基础上所形成的科技赋能商业业务线。具体各业务条线又根据业务实质及服务客群进行了产品归类，详细如下：经营数据方面，根据其最新业绩数据显示，2020年，一站式支付业务业务服务商户数达到551万家，较2019年的527万户同比微增4.5%，透过支付服务获取服务的消费者者到达6.45亿人，较2019年的3.67亿人同比增长75.5%","text":"在港上市的移卡近期公布了其2020年业绩报告，作为2020年6月登陆港交所之后发布的第一份全年业绩报告，移卡的这份成绩单可以用差强人意来形容，而在其业绩发布的第二日，二级市场投资者也纷纷“用脚投票”，当日其股价应声大跌超11%，而在3月29日，移卡股价则再次大跌超8%，两日累计跌幅接近20%，显然，移卡这份的最新的答卷并没有让市场满意。事实上，进入2021年以来，借助公司不断横向并购等“利好”信息的刺激，移卡股价曾迎来一波疯涨，从1月4号底部的37.6港元/股涨至2月17号的122.7港元/股，期间涨幅高达221%。截至4月2日发稿，其最新股价虽开始反弹，但较峰值已经腰斩。出现上述情况下的原因，刨除受进入2月下旬以来港股指数整体回调的影响外，消金界认为，我们或许能从其这份最新财报里得出不一样的答案。 营收微增净利却暴涨，盈利能力藏“猫腻”“移卡”全称为深圳市移卡科技有限公司，成立于2011年，初始业务为小微商户提供支付服务，2014年获得央行颁发的全国银行卡收单许可和移动电话支付许可证，成为国内16家同时具有上述两项牌照的支付机构之一；另由于创始人具有腾讯背景，在成立初期便获得腾讯的战略投资，再借助微信支付的这一生态，截止到2019年，其年度支付交易总量就已经突破1.5万亿元，并且在2020年6月成功登陆港交所主板市场，成为继汇付支付之后内地第二家在港上市企业。业务布局层面，目前移卡主要有两大业务线，一是传统一站式支付业务线，二是在前者服务用户基础上所形成的科技赋能商业业务线。具体各业务条线又根据业务实质及服务客群进行了产品归类，详细如下：经营数据方面，根据其最新业绩数据显示，2020年，一站式支付业务业务服务商户数达到551万家，较2019年的527万户同比微增4.5%，透过支付服务获取服务的消费者者到达6.45亿人，较2019年的3.67亿人同比增长75.5%","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d567ff63b9adee2d99d441d43c976511"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c97942b725eafc3104ee4ff2bc94a1c"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef2f4fb3d53219e5b2e2031b0b756561"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340387517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":17,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346310045,"gmtCreate":1617989790487,"gmtModify":1617989790487,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346310045","repostId":"2124975365","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346051282,"gmtCreate":1617976390546,"gmtModify":1617976390546,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346051282","repostId":"1130825933","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1130825933","pubTimestamp":1617940571,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130825933?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO and Other Chinese EV Stocks Are Struggling. Don’t Blame Wall Street.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130825933","media":"Barron's","summary":"It seemednothing could go wrongfor Chinese electric-vehicle stocks in 2020. Now it feels like nothin","content":"<p>It seemednothing could go wrongfor Chinese electric-vehicle stocks in 2020. Now it feels like nothing can go right. And despite urging from analysts to buy shares, these once highflying stocks justwon’t go up.</p>\n<p>The recent trading action is either a huge opportunity forEV bulls, or it showsthe bearsmay have been right and Chinese EV stocks like NIO and XPeng simply got too expensive. But while investors are staying away, Wall Street analysts are doubling down on these stocks.</p>\n<p>NIO(ticker: NIO) stock skyrocketed about 1,100% in 2020. Its growing deliveries and new product launches helped convince investors that EVs are the future of personal transportation, and that NIO will be a long-term winner in the market. That left shares trading at roughly at 16 times estimated 2021 sales at the start of this year.Tesla(TSLA) stock, for comparison, started out this year trading at about 12 times estimated 2021 sales.</p>\n<p>NIO shares, however, are down about 20% year to date. And they are struggling to break out of this funk.</p>\n<p>This week, for instance, should have been good for all EV stocks. Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries, reported onApril 2, blew past analyst expectations, showing that EV demand is still strong and that the global automotive microchip shortage may be less of a problem than feared. The sector saw gains early this week on the news, but that quickly faded. Then a convertible bond sale announced byLi Auto(LI) drove all three the Chinese EV stocks lower Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Even though shares are rebounding Thursday, NIO stock is still down about 3% for the week, compared with a roughly 2% gain for theS&amp;P 500and theDow Jones Industrial Average‘s 1% gain. NIO peersXPeng(XPEV) and Li Auto are down about 4% and nearly 9% for the week, respectively. Tesla stock has risen about 3%.</p>\n<p>There are quite a few issues that might be shaking confidence in these stocks. For one,higher interest rateshave hurt valuations of many high-growth stocks.</p>\n<p>The automotivechip shortageis another problem. The global semiconductor industry has gotten caught ramping up a new chip generation while ramping down an old one during a global pandemic. The result is there aren’t enough for cars, and many auto makers have shut plants while waiting for the supply situation to improve.</p>\n<p>Capital raisingfrom companies—includingQuantumScape(QS) and Li—is affecting trading, too. Investors don’t like to see their stakes diluted with new shares. In addition, a capital raise by any company is a small signal that company management is happy with the current stock price. Management teams, like investors, don’t like to sell low.</p>\n<p>Even Tesla’s success might be a new problem for the Chinese EV producers. Part of Tesla’s delivery beat was strong sales of its newChinese-built Model Ycrossover vehicle. With so many EVs coming out in numerous markets across the globe, growth is a little harder than it was in 2020.</p>\n<p>One group that isn’t worried about the Chinese EV stocks, however, is brokerage analysts. They are very bullish and have raised their price targets for all three stocks in 2021.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42acddd9f3c9dc83e106d950f0c70d24\" tg-width=\"629\" tg-height=\"417\">The average analysttarget pricefor NIO is now about $61 a share, up about 32% year to date. That implies a gain of almost 60% from recent levels. XPeng and Li target prices are up less dramatically, but average analyst price targets for the two imply gains of roughly 50% and 60%, respectively.</p>\n<p>Such large expectations for stock gains aren’t typical on Wall Street. The average implied gain for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is typically less than 10%. But analysts really like these three Chinese EV stocks: More than 70% of the ratings on the trio are Buy. TheaverageBuy-rating ratios for stocks in the S&amp;P 500 and Dow is less than 60%.</p>\n<p>Analysts are staying bullish, even as investors want to seem more than just strong EV demand.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO and Other Chinese EV Stocks Are Struggling. Don’t Blame Wall Street.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO and Other Chinese EV Stocks Are Struggling. Don’t Blame Wall Street.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 11:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-xpeng-li-auto-chinese-ev-stocks-51617908548?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It seemednothing could go wrongfor Chinese electric-vehicle stocks in 2020. Now it feels like nothing can go right. And despite urging from analysts to buy shares, these once highflying stocks justwon...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-xpeng-li-auto-chinese-ev-stocks-51617908548?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nio-xpeng-li-auto-chinese-ev-stocks-51617908548?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130825933","content_text":"It seemednothing could go wrongfor Chinese electric-vehicle stocks in 2020. Now it feels like nothing can go right. And despite urging from analysts to buy shares, these once highflying stocks justwon’t go up.\nThe recent trading action is either a huge opportunity forEV bulls, or it showsthe bearsmay have been right and Chinese EV stocks like NIO and XPeng simply got too expensive. But while investors are staying away, Wall Street analysts are doubling down on these stocks.\nNIO(ticker: NIO) stock skyrocketed about 1,100% in 2020. Its growing deliveries and new product launches helped convince investors that EVs are the future of personal transportation, and that NIO will be a long-term winner in the market. That left shares trading at roughly at 16 times estimated 2021 sales at the start of this year.Tesla(TSLA) stock, for comparison, started out this year trading at about 12 times estimated 2021 sales.\nNIO shares, however, are down about 20% year to date. And they are struggling to break out of this funk.\nThis week, for instance, should have been good for all EV stocks. Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries, reported onApril 2, blew past analyst expectations, showing that EV demand is still strong and that the global automotive microchip shortage may be less of a problem than feared. The sector saw gains early this week on the news, but that quickly faded. Then a convertible bond sale announced byLi Auto(LI) drove all three the Chinese EV stocks lower Wednesday.\nEven though shares are rebounding Thursday, NIO stock is still down about 3% for the week, compared with a roughly 2% gain for theS&P 500and theDow Jones Industrial Average‘s 1% gain. NIO peersXPeng(XPEV) and Li Auto are down about 4% and nearly 9% for the week, respectively. Tesla stock has risen about 3%.\nThere are quite a few issues that might be shaking confidence in these stocks. For one,higher interest rateshave hurt valuations of many high-growth stocks.\nThe automotivechip shortageis another problem. The global semiconductor industry has gotten caught ramping up a new chip generation while ramping down an old one during a global pandemic. The result is there aren’t enough for cars, and many auto makers have shut plants while waiting for the supply situation to improve.\nCapital raisingfrom companies—includingQuantumScape(QS) and Li—is affecting trading, too. Investors don’t like to see their stakes diluted with new shares. In addition, a capital raise by any company is a small signal that company management is happy with the current stock price. Management teams, like investors, don’t like to sell low.\nEven Tesla’s success might be a new problem for the Chinese EV producers. Part of Tesla’s delivery beat was strong sales of its newChinese-built Model Ycrossover vehicle. With so many EVs coming out in numerous markets across the globe, growth is a little harder than it was in 2020.\nOne group that isn’t worried about the Chinese EV stocks, however, is brokerage analysts. They are very bullish and have raised their price targets for all three stocks in 2021.\nThe average analysttarget pricefor NIO is now about $61 a share, up about 32% year to date. That implies a gain of almost 60% from recent levels. XPeng and Li target prices are up less dramatically, but average analyst price targets for the two imply gains of roughly 50% and 60%, respectively.\nSuch large expectations for stock gains aren’t typical on Wall Street. The average implied gain for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is typically less than 10%. But analysts really like these three Chinese EV stocks: More than 70% of the ratings on the trio are Buy. TheaverageBuy-rating ratios for stocks in the S&P 500 and Dow is less than 60%.\nAnalysts are staying bullish, even as investors want to seem more than just strong EV demand.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366106318,"gmtCreate":1614403173334,"gmtModify":1703477341104,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366106318","repostId":"368545133","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":368545133,"gmtCreate":1614342217720,"gmtModify":1703476627398,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"为什么这次跳水不简单，深入聊聊美债，美股和通胀的关系","htmlText":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。1","listText":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/338364255\" target=\"_blank\">相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/336057536\" target=\"_blank\">国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动</a> 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。1","text":"快速而猛烈的下跌，乃至于触发熔断，然后花上几个月的时间修复，这样灾难性的暴跌我们一般叫崩盘，股灾啥的，在当下的市场环境下，这个可能性我们都知道不大。 但如果说一场调整，持续2到3个月，每天涨涨跌跌，总体上跌的要比涨的多，甚至像本周这样连续的大跌反复出现，几个月下来，你的收益会少于周期开始的时候，这样的市场阶段我们怎么定义呢？不是股灾也不是崩盘，那就是中长期震荡回调期。 当10年美债利率攀升到1.5%以后，如果持续向上，美股会不会进入一个赚钱选股都相对更难的长期回调时期呢？所以这点上，我们得小心。避险的意识必须要有。 这次分享，我就主要聊一下，为什么这次美股大跌不能当成一次简单的回调看待。这次跳水不简单。 其实关于美债利率对美股的影响，我在年初大选的时候就已经开始预警了。 相比强烈的通胀预期，美股的开年黑其实算不了什么 国会遭受冲击，最重要的是这个变动 只是点位上，我预测10年美债收益率到1%的时候会出现美股的小调整，但没想到市场的风险情绪在拜登上台和民主党统一国会和白宫后，被短时间激发，疫情的负面影响也到了后期，在1个多月时间里美股连创新高，没有对1%的美债收益做任何反应，美股的估值也是在那个时候被悄悄拉大。 我们看一下标普的席勒市盈率走势，在今年年初是34.8倍。这个只是表面上的间接估值法的一个结果。 实际上你要这么看，这相当于，我们用大约35单位的价格购得了1单位的每股盈利。那么1/35得到的以标普每股盈利为收益的收益率为2.5%多。 那为什么说这个估值是在被拉高？我们得看下平准通胀率，也就是长期市场对未来的通胀率的预测。1","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff3fbb1fc92c3ad45ccb74beee9bbd7","width":"1245","height":"687"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd734dfde270e96a7e2f384139ab2a67","width":"532","height":"377"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4674893cbdcc73f158470c94a3e1f9de","width":"838","height":"484"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368545133","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":381584573,"gmtCreate":1612970827492,"gmtModify":1703767805336,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]","listText":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381584573","repostId":"2110201405","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":380734419,"gmtCreate":1612588044631,"gmtModify":1703763870767,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380734419","repostId":"380140689","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":380140689,"gmtCreate":1612526989437,"gmtModify":1703763125009,"author":{"id":"58341441844653","authorId":"58341441844653","name":"孟浩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3af5b59c3e4676ee72cb6e0fea0279b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"财报超预期，为何Unity不涨反跌？","htmlText":"2月4日盘后，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a> 发布Q4财报，财报显示Unity营收和净利均超分析师预期，然而财报后股价却不涨反跌，到底发生了啥？ Unity财报超预期 Unity第4季度总收入达到2.2亿美元，同比增长39%，超过分析师预期的2.05亿美元。非美会计准则下Unity的营业利润率为-9%好于去年同期的-15%。截至2020年12月31日，截至2019年12月31日的过去12个月里，有793个客户每个客户创造了超过10万美元的收入，而截至2019年12月31日的客户只有600个。截至2020年12月31日，以美元计算的净扩张率为138%，而截至2019年12月31日的净扩张率为133%。受到了基于股票的薪酬支出增加的影响。2020年4季度运营亏损为8080万美元，占收入的37%，去年同期运营亏损为4860万美元，占收入的31%。2020年4季度非gaap运营损失为2,010万美元，或营收的9%，而2019年第4季度非gaap运营损失为2390万美元，或营收的15%。 基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.31美元，而2019年第四季度的基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.97美元。基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.10美元，而2019年第四季度基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.79美元。 2020年第四季度，经营活动提供的净现金为1480万美元，而去年同期经营活动提供的净现金为90万美元。2020年第四季度的自由现金流为360万美元，而去年同期为970万美元。截至2020年12月31日，现金、现金等价物和限制性现金为13亿美元，而截至2019年12月31日为1亿美元。 分业务来看 Unity主要提供两种订阅服务：Create Solutions（","listText":"2月4日盘后，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a> 发布Q4财报，财报显示Unity营收和净利均超分析师预期，然而财报后股价却不涨反跌，到底发生了啥？ Unity财报超预期 Unity第4季度总收入达到2.2亿美元，同比增长39%，超过分析师预期的2.05亿美元。非美会计准则下Unity的营业利润率为-9%好于去年同期的-15%。截至2020年12月31日，截至2019年12月31日的过去12个月里，有793个客户每个客户创造了超过10万美元的收入，而截至2019年12月31日的客户只有600个。截至2020年12月31日，以美元计算的净扩张率为138%，而截至2019年12月31日的净扩张率为133%。受到了基于股票的薪酬支出增加的影响。2020年4季度运营亏损为8080万美元，占收入的37%，去年同期运营亏损为4860万美元，占收入的31%。2020年4季度非gaap运营损失为2,010万美元，或营收的9%，而2019年第4季度非gaap运营损失为2390万美元，或营收的15%。 基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.31美元，而2019年第四季度的基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.97美元。基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.10美元，而2019年第四季度基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.79美元。 2020年第四季度，经营活动提供的净现金为1480万美元，而去年同期经营活动提供的净现金为90万美元。2020年第四季度的自由现金流为360万美元，而去年同期为970万美元。截至2020年12月31日，现金、现金等价物和限制性现金为13亿美元，而截至2019年12月31日为1亿美元。 分业务来看 Unity主要提供两种订阅服务：Create Solutions（","text":"2月4日盘后，$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 发布Q4财报，财报显示Unity营收和净利均超分析师预期，然而财报后股价却不涨反跌，到底发生了啥？ Unity财报超预期 Unity第4季度总收入达到2.2亿美元，同比增长39%，超过分析师预期的2.05亿美元。非美会计准则下Unity的营业利润率为-9%好于去年同期的-15%。截至2020年12月31日，截至2019年12月31日的过去12个月里，有793个客户每个客户创造了超过10万美元的收入，而截至2019年12月31日的客户只有600个。截至2020年12月31日，以美元计算的净扩张率为138%，而截至2019年12月31日的净扩张率为133%。受到了基于股票的薪酬支出增加的影响。2020年4季度运营亏损为8080万美元，占收入的37%，去年同期运营亏损为4860万美元，占收入的31%。2020年4季度非gaap运营损失为2,010万美元，或营收的9%，而2019年第4季度非gaap运营损失为2390万美元，或营收的15%。 基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.31美元，而2019年第四季度的基本和稀释后的每股净亏损为0.97美元。基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.10美元，而2019年第四季度基本和摊薄的非gaap每股净亏损为0.79美元。 2020年第四季度，经营活动提供的净现金为1480万美元，而去年同期经营活动提供的净现金为90万美元。2020年第四季度的自由现金流为360万美元，而去年同期为970万美元。截至2020年12月31日，现金、现金等价物和限制性现金为13亿美元，而截至2019年12月31日为1亿美元。 分业务来看 Unity主要提供两种订阅服务：Create Solutions（","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cb3200ba19ca5d498a3ec4f055ac807","width":"1334","height":"756"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f3b9af829a56e9158f572a0d9cffa54","width":"1330","height":"752"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b80adb7c7bcfe8ba17993b83ed508aa8","width":"654","height":"410"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380140689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316223376,"gmtCreate":1611934185695,"gmtModify":1703756715722,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316223376","repostId":"311729178","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":311729178,"gmtCreate":1611830340000,"gmtModify":1703754451031,"author":{"id":"3524030243818067","authorId":"3524030243818067","name":"巴伦周刊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a88e8bd37e8c66a6dfdca78e1466369","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"散户继续反围剿华尔街之狼，谁在GameStop逼空战中躺赢和躺枪","htmlText":"文 | 《巴伦周刊》中文版撰稿人 郭力群 编辑 | 康娟 GameStop逼空大战带来的影响开始蔓延到整个市场。但记住：别人恐惧时我贪婪，别人贪婪时我恐惧。 GameStop（GME）等被大量做空的股票给整个股市带来的影响终于显现。周三（1月27日），美股市场大幅回落，道指、标普500和纳指收盘分别下跌2.05%、2.57%和2.61%。GameStop当日继续飙升，收于347.51美元，涨幅134.8%。 《巴伦周刊》在近期报道中多次谈到股市可能出现回调，就差一个催化剂了。现在看来，GameStop就是这个催化剂。金融公司Raymond James策略师塔维斯·麦考特(Tavis McCourt)称，GameStop等股票暴涨后出现的逼空已经造成了一定程度的连锁效应，做空股票的对冲基金被追缴保证金，由于已经蒙受了巨额损失，它们不得不抛售自己持有的股票套现来缴纳保证金，这种抛售操作进而给大盘造成了拖累。 监管机构看不下去了 逼空给整个股市造成的影响引起了监管机构的注意。据《巴伦周刊》报道，马萨诸塞州最高证券监管机构称，GameStop需要“降温”，纽交所应该暂停其股票交易30天。该机构表示，GameStop的交易存在“系统性”问题，经验不足的散户没有意识到自己承担着什么样的风险，可能会因此受到伤害。 然而一些散户在接受《巴伦周刊》采访时称 ，他们通过押注GameStop股票或期权赚到了足以“改变自己人生”的钱。Reddit论坛上的Wall Street Bets社区用户说他们比空头更胜一筹。S3 Partners的数据显示，做空GameStop的空头已经损失了50亿美元，逼空还在继续，亏损也还在扩大。 美国证券交易委员会(SEC)周三收盘后发布公告称，该机构非常关注目前期权和股票市场出现的波动，正在和其他监管机构一起评估当前的市场形势。SEC公告一出，GameStop","listText":"文 | 《巴伦周刊》中文版撰稿人 郭力群 编辑 | 康娟 GameStop逼空大战带来的影响开始蔓延到整个市场。但记住：别人恐惧时我贪婪，别人贪婪时我恐惧。 GameStop（GME）等被大量做空的股票给整个股市带来的影响终于显现。周三（1月27日），美股市场大幅回落，道指、标普500和纳指收盘分别下跌2.05%、2.57%和2.61%。GameStop当日继续飙升，收于347.51美元，涨幅134.8%。 《巴伦周刊》在近期报道中多次谈到股市可能出现回调，就差一个催化剂了。现在看来，GameStop就是这个催化剂。金融公司Raymond James策略师塔维斯·麦考特(Tavis McCourt)称，GameStop等股票暴涨后出现的逼空已经造成了一定程度的连锁效应，做空股票的对冲基金被追缴保证金，由于已经蒙受了巨额损失，它们不得不抛售自己持有的股票套现来缴纳保证金，这种抛售操作进而给大盘造成了拖累。 监管机构看不下去了 逼空给整个股市造成的影响引起了监管机构的注意。据《巴伦周刊》报道，马萨诸塞州最高证券监管机构称，GameStop需要“降温”，纽交所应该暂停其股票交易30天。该机构表示，GameStop的交易存在“系统性”问题，经验不足的散户没有意识到自己承担着什么样的风险，可能会因此受到伤害。 然而一些散户在接受《巴伦周刊》采访时称 ，他们通过押注GameStop股票或期权赚到了足以“改变自己人生”的钱。Reddit论坛上的Wall Street Bets社区用户说他们比空头更胜一筹。S3 Partners的数据显示，做空GameStop的空头已经损失了50亿美元，逼空还在继续，亏损也还在扩大。 美国证券交易委员会(SEC)周三收盘后发布公告称，该机构非常关注目前期权和股票市场出现的波动，正在和其他监管机构一起评估当前的市场形势。SEC公告一出，GameStop","text":"文 | 《巴伦周刊》中文版撰稿人 郭力群 编辑 | 康娟 GameStop逼空大战带来的影响开始蔓延到整个市场。但记住：别人恐惧时我贪婪，别人贪婪时我恐惧。 GameStop（GME）等被大量做空的股票给整个股市带来的影响终于显现。周三（1月27日），美股市场大幅回落，道指、标普500和纳指收盘分别下跌2.05%、2.57%和2.61%。GameStop当日继续飙升，收于347.51美元，涨幅134.8%。 《巴伦周刊》在近期报道中多次谈到股市可能出现回调，就差一个催化剂了。现在看来，GameStop就是这个催化剂。金融公司Raymond James策略师塔维斯·麦考特(Tavis McCourt)称，GameStop等股票暴涨后出现的逼空已经造成了一定程度的连锁效应，做空股票的对冲基金被追缴保证金，由于已经蒙受了巨额损失，它们不得不抛售自己持有的股票套现来缴纳保证金，这种抛售操作进而给大盘造成了拖累。 监管机构看不下去了 逼空给整个股市造成的影响引起了监管机构的注意。据《巴伦周刊》报道，马萨诸塞州最高证券监管机构称，GameStop需要“降温”，纽交所应该暂停其股票交易30天。该机构表示，GameStop的交易存在“系统性”问题，经验不足的散户没有意识到自己承担着什么样的风险，可能会因此受到伤害。 然而一些散户在接受《巴伦周刊》采访时称 ，他们通过押注GameStop股票或期权赚到了足以“改变自己人生”的钱。Reddit论坛上的Wall Street Bets社区用户说他们比空头更胜一筹。S3 Partners的数据显示，做空GameStop的空头已经损失了50亿美元，逼空还在继续，亏损也还在扩大。 美国证券交易委员会(SEC)周三收盘后发布公告称，该机构非常关注目前期权和股票市场出现的波动，正在和其他监管机构一起评估当前的市场形势。SEC公告一出，GameStop","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bd40c745364aa1b352204d2b87d027","width":"693","height":"359"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06f50b65f93848cd956c485286b8256d","width":"750","height":"248"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89515782c6e5415797d68c7daaab1128","width":"474","height":"266"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/311729178","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336502561,"gmtCreate":1610115404953,"gmtModify":1703742797985,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336502561","repostId":"1116826620","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116826620","pubTimestamp":1609998972,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116826620?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-07 13:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zoom: Will Surprise Your Portfolio In 2021, Multifaceted Growth Ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116826620","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe market is missing the forest for the tree. The vaccine will not kill Zoom.\n\n\nWhile the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The market is missing the forest for the tree. The vaccine will not kill Zoom.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>While the stock will not perform like in 2020, it will still surprise many.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>Zoom is rapidly introducing new products, expanding to new industry verticals and geography.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>Its competitive position is stronger than ever, and the untapped market opportunity is vast as communications move to the cloud, and remote working becomes the new normal.</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n <li>We argue Zoom is an attractive investment at 30x EV/FY22 Sales.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis - Multifaceted Growth Ahead</b></p>\n<p>2020 was a banner year for Zoom (ZM). It has the perfect product available at the ideal time. Its most recent quarterly revenue increased four-fold YoY, 25% bigger than the entire financial year of 2020. As a result, its market cap increased five-fold to $100B.</p>\n<p>With the vaccination ramping up in 2021, the market is swift to rotating from Zoom to other investments. Zoom's market valuation dropped over 35% since November 2020. On Seeking Alpha, all of the latest articles have been bearish. Against market sentiment, we view this as an opportunity to initiate a position. Here's a quick overview of why.</p>\n<p>Zoom's long-term investment thesis is alive. It remains the best-of-breed for work-from-home communication solutions. Zoom has become a verb, very much like 'Skype,' 'Google,' and 'DocuSign.' This achievement alone demonstrates Zoom possesses an incredible combination of moats in branding and network effects. As it grows, it adds more value, and users will find it very hard to leave. Unsurprisingly, Zoom is now a $100B company. But it isn't going to stop.</p>\n<p>Zoom's next leg of growth is likely to come from Zoom Phone, OnZoom, Zoom Webinar, Zoom App Marketplace, and Zoom Room. These are products and features that will allow Zoom to grow beyond corporate video conferencing. Zoom Phone makes Zoom an end-to-end communication solution on the cloud, which helps Zoom enter a new market, Unified Communication as a Service ('Ucaas'). Interestingly, as offices reopen, Zoom Phone will be a surprise growth driver. Other products, particularly OnZoom and Zoom App Marketplace, put Zoom to new industry verticals such as telehealth, workflow, eCommerce, online education, online fitness, eSport events, online dating, real estate, human resources, etc. Finally, it will also allow Zoom to accelerate its international expansion.</p>\n<p>Yes, many of these growth avenues are still in the early days, and a repeat performance of 2020 is not on our minds. Additionally, there will be user churn, more 'Zoom fatigue,' and new companies carving out the edges of Zoom's verticalization. However, as our way of work and play has changed forever, we believe Zoom's product has a permanent place in our lives one way or another.</p>\n<p><b>Market Opportunity and Competition</b></p>\n<p>What's attractive about Zoom is its Target Addressable Market ('TAM'), reportedly worth about $50B a year just within the Unified Communication as a Service ('UCaaS'). The figure is expected totriple in five years to $140B. The implied growth rate is one of the fastest and well supported as voice, messaging, and video communications packaged into an end-to-end communication solution on the cloud.</p>\n<p>But these colossal TAM figures may not capture the massive opportunities available to Zoom. As Amazon was not just an online bookstore, Zoom will not be confined to video conferencing.</p>\n<p>We believe Zoom's use cases are already multiplying. Zoom's Total Serviceable Market ('TSM') will grow beyond our comprehension. Thus, Zoom's market cap of $100B and its FY21 revenue of $2.58B still have room to grow even further.</p>\n<p><b>Competition</b></p>\n<p>Zoom's competition is plentiful. They include the legacy video communication tools such as GoToWebinar, GoToMeeting (both owned by LogMeIn), On24 (private), Skype (MSFT), Webex (CSCO), Teams, Slack (WORK), and many more. However, the market opportunity is vast, and there is room for multiple winners. Let's look at where Zoom stands among its rivals.</p>\n<p><b>Why invest in Zoom?</b></p>\n<p><b>Position in the market</b></p>\n<p>Gartner's Magic Quadrant shows that Zoom is the leader forMeeting Solutions.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b2b03d42471345cb3823b598d07c15d\" tg-width=\"1126\" tg-height=\"1232\"></p>\n<p>Zoom is also a leader in&nbsp;UcaaS.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0111dacabd28c098e3bcfcf9661f914\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"1078\"></p>\n<p>The rivals above may provide messaging, voice, video, or other team collaboration tools, but they do not provide an end-to-end communication solution like Zoom.</p>\n<p>Unsurprisingly, the two biggest rivals are Microsoft and Cisco. While they enjoy more considerable resources and geographical reach, their products lack usability, visual appeals (and tools), and meeting controls. Hence, their products fell short in market enthusiasm and virality when compared to Zoom.</p>\n<p><b>Competitive advantage/moat</b></p>\n<p>Moats are commonly categorized into four types: Network effects, low costs, high switching cost, and intangible assets.</p>\n<p>Zoom possesses the most powerful ones, network effects, and brand name. Zoom is reliable, easy to use, and easily deployable. Zoom's net promoter score ('NPS') is incrediblyhigh +70. Competitors do not even compare. None has the virality effect in 2020, quite like Zoom.</p>\n<p>As Zoom expands features, use cases, and integrates deeper into other platforms, we believe Zoom would also acquire the high switching cost moat. While this moat isn't seen as necessary as the first two, it would help Zoom to retain customers and maintain a large user base to monetize.</p>\n<p><b>Potential for expansion</b></p>\n<p>The main attraction to investing in Zoom is its optionality for growth, which are abundant:</p>\n<p>+<b>New customers</b>, Zoom has been serving enterprise and SME customers, and it looks like they are also serving individuals (!). Q3'21 results show that 38% of revenue came from customers with less than ten employees, a significant shift from &lt;20% in Q4'20. The growing trend also means that they might be subject to higher user churn. However, if they can manage to make Zoom ubiquitous for B2C like Skype for consumer use, it would become another massive revenue opportunity. More importantly, it will also bring meaningful data at the most granular level (think Twilio and Facebook).</p>\n<p>+<b>Higher spent per customer</b>by expanding use cases of Zoom's platform. Zoom's explosion in user growth had left little time to fine-tune monetization. In 2021, we believe Zoom will still focus on product development, but eventually, they will balance the act between user growth and monetization to surprise total revenue on the upside. We are excited about the upselling opportunities in education as free users convert and add more modules.</p>\n<p>+<b>New features/services</b>offered on the platform over time. There are a lot of use cases and verticals that Zoom is already exploring. While it is already viral in the education sector, there are massive opportunities in:</p>\n<p>eCommerce and workflowmanagement - Zoom is now integrated within Shopify (SHOP), Slack (WORK), Teams, Zendesk, Jira (TEAM), LinkedIn. Further integration with other platforms will make Zoom a fundamental building block in many verticals and industries.</p>\n<p>Zoom Phone- Zoom is on the mission to consolidate communication channels into one single, unified platform. It provided phone services in 44 countries and was thefastest-growing productin Q3'21 (from 18 countries in Q1'21). Peloton and Rakuten added Zoom Phone shortly after Zoom Meetings. The management seems excited about the progress but remained tight lip about the details.</p>\n<p>Real estates (In Q2'21, 50% of newly launched properties in Singapore was over Zoom)</p>\n<p>Telehealth- Through Zoom's HIPAA/PIPEDA compliant Epic app, client: South Coast Community Services leverages Zoom to provide mental health support during COVID-19.</p>\n<p>Fitnessthrough OnZoom, integration with Peloton (PTON)</p>\n<p>Others: Virtual jury in Florida, eSports, etc.</p>\n<p>+<b>Increase international presence</b>: As of Q3'21, Zoom generates 70% of revenue in the US. Thus, there is a lot of room outside of the US for Zoom to grow.</p>\n<p><b>Management</b></p>\n<p>Eric Yuan is the captain of Zoom. He found Zoom out of his frustration at WebEx. His rise to success is a well-documented and inspiring one, so we'll show hisGlassdoor ratingto give you a preview of who he is as a CEO.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f368b1d591a30c6fea1563c4b5b2bef\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"365\"></p>\n<p>Now, let's have a look at the execution.</p>\n<p><b>Financials scorecard</b></p>\n<p><b>Customers:</b></p>\n<p>-Paying customers with more than ten employees was 433.7K, up 485% YoY from 74.1K and made up 62% of total revenue.</p>\n<p>-38% of revenue came from customers with less than ten employees, up from 36% in Q2 and from &lt;20% in Q4'20.</p>\n<p>-18% of revenue came from enterprises.</p>\n<p>-Customers generating over 100K was 1,289, up 136% YoY from 546.</p>\n<p>-Major customer wins were Peloton and Rakuten.</p>\n<p><b>DBNER</b>Zoom has maintained an over 130% dollar-based net expansion rate every quarter (ten) since the IPO. It shows a strong ability to land and expand, add value, and gain customers' trust.</p>\n<p>Consequently,Q3'21was another phenomenal quarter.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/315e5f0ec007d658a0c5ad66fa551abd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"670\"></p>\n<p><b>Revenue</b>was $777M, up 367% YoY from $167M, an acceleration of 17% from $646M in Q2'21. Q3'21 revenue was 24% higher than its entire revenue in FY20.</p>\n<p>International revenue was 30% and grew 629% vs. 300% domestically.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0c2023136b5b3ea33284010616b4db4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"700\"></p>\n<p><b>Gross margin</b>was 68.2%, a significant drop from 83% YoY and 72.3% QoQ due to a considerable increase in free users' usage, particularly in K-12 education intuitions. During the quarter, Zoom recorded 3.5 trillion meeting minutes, up 75% QoQ. Once Covid-related usage diminishes, we expect gross margin to improve towards Zoom's long-term target.</p>\n<p><b>Operating margin</b>was 37.4%, up from 12.8% in Q3 last year, and a decrease from Q2'21's margin of 41.7%. The figure is still extremely high and demonstrates exceptional operating leverage.</p>\n<p><b>Free cash flow</b>was £388M, up from $55M in Q3 last year. That's a 50% free cash flow margin (!). Management intends to maintain a high R&amp;D budget of 10% of sales over the long-term. Thus, Zoom's high free cash flow generation allows Zoom to continue fuelling growth.</p>\n<p><b>The outlook</b>is excellent in our view. The FY21 revenue of 2.58B is a five-fold increase from FY20. Q4'21 revenue will be almost 40% higher than the entire revenue in FY20.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c482f00cce55faa0f4088621b1dab073\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"537\"></p>\n<p>FY2022 and beyond looks good too. The following slide shows that $1.63B of revenue is already under contract, of which $1.18B could be realized in the next four quarters.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b6539e04aa23f6fe5dc43458b523dc\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"693\"></p>\n<p>We struggle to see anything that comes out as a red flag here. Next, let's look if Zoom is reasonably priced to start a position?</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>As of writing, Zoom is priced at just below the $100B market cap. With $2.58B of projected FY21 sales, the stock is priced at about 40x EV/Sales. It is also priced at about 30x Forward EV/FY2022 Sales.</p>\n<p>The Forward EV/Sales is based on the premise of annualized Q4'21 revenue of $810M, or $3.24B for FY22. The number is in-line with Zoom delivering about 30% revenue growth, which is not a lot to ask as Zoom's DBNER is already at 130%.</p>\n<p>As a reminder, Zoom was valued at 36x at IPO and around 40x EV/Sales pre-pandemic.</p>\n<p>Is Zoom as 'valuable' as it was pre-pandemic or at IPO? While Zoom is much larger, it is also a much more formidable company that possesses way more avenues to growth. Again, it has proven to be extremely efficient in scaling as the free cash flow margin reaching 50% in Q3'21 and higher than the likes of Salesforce (CRM) on an annualized basis, $1.65B vs. $1.4B.</p>\n<p>Overall, we find the current valuation to be extremely attractive to start a position.</p>\n<p><b>Investment risks</b></p>\n<p>We believe investing in Zoom today carries fewer risks thanks to the proven product-market fit, viral brand name, scalability, and importantly, at the helm, Zoom has Eric Yuan, who is highly motivated and visionary. Nevertheless, technology changes fast, and the threat of disruption is real.</p>\n<p>While Zoom has the brand name, Zoom's 'one size fits all' solution will be challenged by new companies.</p>\n<p>We highly recommend reading this blog post about Zoom's verticalization, whereJJ Oslund explainshow new companies may pose the biggest threat to Zoom by carving out the 'edge cases' that Zoom cannot meet due to its lack of focus.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/359583a598fd065c022c7d601e085a7a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"535\"></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>If you feel the risk of Zoom going obsolete due to disruption is significant and will happen soon, I don't blame you for giving Zoom a pass. However, Zoom's high valuation and the short-term sentiment that Zoom is a Covid stock are not good reasons for not considering it.</p>\n<p>Remember that Zoom is a best-of-breed SaaS company that can touch everyone (almost)'s lives. In effect, Zoom is listening, watching, and collecting the most granule data from people's lives, at work and home. The data Zoom collects provides optionality long into the future. For the short to medium term, Zoom Phone, better monetization, K-12 free users' conversion, and expansion into telehealth, commerce, workflow, fitness, and internationally should provide a surprise boost to Zoom's growth.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zoom: Will Surprise Your Portfolio In 2021, Multifaceted Growth Ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZoom: Will Surprise Your Portfolio In 2021, Multifaceted Growth Ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-07 13:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397623-zoom-will-surprise-your-portfolio-in-2021-multifaceted-growth-ahead><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe market is missing the forest for the tree. The vaccine will not kill Zoom.\n\n\nWhile the stock will not perform like in 2020, it will still surprise many.\n\n\nZoom is rapidly introducing new ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397623-zoom-will-surprise-your-portfolio-in-2021-multifaceted-growth-ahead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397623-zoom-will-surprise-your-portfolio-in-2021-multifaceted-growth-ahead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1116826620","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe market is missing the forest for the tree. The vaccine will not kill Zoom.\n\n\nWhile the stock will not perform like in 2020, it will still surprise many.\n\n\nZoom is rapidly introducing new products, expanding to new industry verticals and geography.\n\n\nIts competitive position is stronger than ever, and the untapped market opportunity is vast as communications move to the cloud, and remote working becomes the new normal.\n\n\nWe argue Zoom is an attractive investment at 30x EV/FY22 Sales.\n\nInvestment Thesis - Multifaceted Growth Ahead\n2020 was a banner year for Zoom (ZM). It has the perfect product available at the ideal time. Its most recent quarterly revenue increased four-fold YoY, 25% bigger than the entire financial year of 2020. As a result, its market cap increased five-fold to $100B.\nWith the vaccination ramping up in 2021, the market is swift to rotating from Zoom to other investments. Zoom's market valuation dropped over 35% since November 2020. On Seeking Alpha, all of the latest articles have been bearish. Against market sentiment, we view this as an opportunity to initiate a position. Here's a quick overview of why.\nZoom's long-term investment thesis is alive. It remains the best-of-breed for work-from-home communication solutions. Zoom has become a verb, very much like 'Skype,' 'Google,' and 'DocuSign.' This achievement alone demonstrates Zoom possesses an incredible combination of moats in branding and network effects. As it grows, it adds more value, and users will find it very hard to leave. Unsurprisingly, Zoom is now a $100B company. But it isn't going to stop.\nZoom's next leg of growth is likely to come from Zoom Phone, OnZoom, Zoom Webinar, Zoom App Marketplace, and Zoom Room. These are products and features that will allow Zoom to grow beyond corporate video conferencing. Zoom Phone makes Zoom an end-to-end communication solution on the cloud, which helps Zoom enter a new market, Unified Communication as a Service ('Ucaas'). Interestingly, as offices reopen, Zoom Phone will be a surprise growth driver. Other products, particularly OnZoom and Zoom App Marketplace, put Zoom to new industry verticals such as telehealth, workflow, eCommerce, online education, online fitness, eSport events, online dating, real estate, human resources, etc. Finally, it will also allow Zoom to accelerate its international expansion.\nYes, many of these growth avenues are still in the early days, and a repeat performance of 2020 is not on our minds. Additionally, there will be user churn, more 'Zoom fatigue,' and new companies carving out the edges of Zoom's verticalization. However, as our way of work and play has changed forever, we believe Zoom's product has a permanent place in our lives one way or another.\nMarket Opportunity and Competition\nWhat's attractive about Zoom is its Target Addressable Market ('TAM'), reportedly worth about $50B a year just within the Unified Communication as a Service ('UCaaS'). The figure is expected totriple in five years to $140B. The implied growth rate is one of the fastest and well supported as voice, messaging, and video communications packaged into an end-to-end communication solution on the cloud.\nBut these colossal TAM figures may not capture the massive opportunities available to Zoom. As Amazon was not just an online bookstore, Zoom will not be confined to video conferencing.\nWe believe Zoom's use cases are already multiplying. Zoom's Total Serviceable Market ('TSM') will grow beyond our comprehension. Thus, Zoom's market cap of $100B and its FY21 revenue of $2.58B still have room to grow even further.\nCompetition\nZoom's competition is plentiful. They include the legacy video communication tools such as GoToWebinar, GoToMeeting (both owned by LogMeIn), On24 (private), Skype (MSFT), Webex (CSCO), Teams, Slack (WORK), and many more. However, the market opportunity is vast, and there is room for multiple winners. Let's look at where Zoom stands among its rivals.\nWhy invest in Zoom?\nPosition in the market\nGartner's Magic Quadrant shows that Zoom is the leader forMeeting Solutions.\n\nZoom is also a leader in UcaaS.\n\nThe rivals above may provide messaging, voice, video, or other team collaboration tools, but they do not provide an end-to-end communication solution like Zoom.\nUnsurprisingly, the two biggest rivals are Microsoft and Cisco. While they enjoy more considerable resources and geographical reach, their products lack usability, visual appeals (and tools), and meeting controls. Hence, their products fell short in market enthusiasm and virality when compared to Zoom.\nCompetitive advantage/moat\nMoats are commonly categorized into four types: Network effects, low costs, high switching cost, and intangible assets.\nZoom possesses the most powerful ones, network effects, and brand name. Zoom is reliable, easy to use, and easily deployable. Zoom's net promoter score ('NPS') is incrediblyhigh +70. Competitors do not even compare. None has the virality effect in 2020, quite like Zoom.\nAs Zoom expands features, use cases, and integrates deeper into other platforms, we believe Zoom would also acquire the high switching cost moat. While this moat isn't seen as necessary as the first two, it would help Zoom to retain customers and maintain a large user base to monetize.\nPotential for expansion\nThe main attraction to investing in Zoom is its optionality for growth, which are abundant:\n+New customers, Zoom has been serving enterprise and SME customers, and it looks like they are also serving individuals (!). Q3'21 results show that 38% of revenue came from customers with less than ten employees, a significant shift from <20% in Q4'20. The growing trend also means that they might be subject to higher user churn. However, if they can manage to make Zoom ubiquitous for B2C like Skype for consumer use, it would become another massive revenue opportunity. More importantly, it will also bring meaningful data at the most granular level (think Twilio and Facebook).\n+Higher spent per customerby expanding use cases of Zoom's platform. Zoom's explosion in user growth had left little time to fine-tune monetization. In 2021, we believe Zoom will still focus on product development, but eventually, they will balance the act between user growth and monetization to surprise total revenue on the upside. We are excited about the upselling opportunities in education as free users convert and add more modules.\n+New features/servicesoffered on the platform over time. There are a lot of use cases and verticals that Zoom is already exploring. While it is already viral in the education sector, there are massive opportunities in:\neCommerce and workflowmanagement - Zoom is now integrated within Shopify (SHOP), Slack (WORK), Teams, Zendesk, Jira (TEAM), LinkedIn. Further integration with other platforms will make Zoom a fundamental building block in many verticals and industries.\nZoom Phone- Zoom is on the mission to consolidate communication channels into one single, unified platform. It provided phone services in 44 countries and was thefastest-growing productin Q3'21 (from 18 countries in Q1'21). Peloton and Rakuten added Zoom Phone shortly after Zoom Meetings. The management seems excited about the progress but remained tight lip about the details.\nReal estates (In Q2'21, 50% of newly launched properties in Singapore was over Zoom)\nTelehealth- Through Zoom's HIPAA/PIPEDA compliant Epic app, client: South Coast Community Services leverages Zoom to provide mental health support during COVID-19.\nFitnessthrough OnZoom, integration with Peloton (PTON)\nOthers: Virtual jury in Florida, eSports, etc.\n+Increase international presence: As of Q3'21, Zoom generates 70% of revenue in the US. Thus, there is a lot of room outside of the US for Zoom to grow.\nManagement\nEric Yuan is the captain of Zoom. He found Zoom out of his frustration at WebEx. His rise to success is a well-documented and inspiring one, so we'll show hisGlassdoor ratingto give you a preview of who he is as a CEO.\n\nNow, let's have a look at the execution.\nFinancials scorecard\nCustomers:\n-Paying customers with more than ten employees was 433.7K, up 485% YoY from 74.1K and made up 62% of total revenue.\n-38% of revenue came from customers with less than ten employees, up from 36% in Q2 and from <20% in Q4'20.\n-18% of revenue came from enterprises.\n-Customers generating over 100K was 1,289, up 136% YoY from 546.\n-Major customer wins were Peloton and Rakuten.\nDBNERZoom has maintained an over 130% dollar-based net expansion rate every quarter (ten) since the IPO. It shows a strong ability to land and expand, add value, and gain customers' trust.\nConsequently,Q3'21was another phenomenal quarter.\n\nRevenuewas $777M, up 367% YoY from $167M, an acceleration of 17% from $646M in Q2'21. Q3'21 revenue was 24% higher than its entire revenue in FY20.\nInternational revenue was 30% and grew 629% vs. 300% domestically.\n\nGross marginwas 68.2%, a significant drop from 83% YoY and 72.3% QoQ due to a considerable increase in free users' usage, particularly in K-12 education intuitions. During the quarter, Zoom recorded 3.5 trillion meeting minutes, up 75% QoQ. Once Covid-related usage diminishes, we expect gross margin to improve towards Zoom's long-term target.\nOperating marginwas 37.4%, up from 12.8% in Q3 last year, and a decrease from Q2'21's margin of 41.7%. The figure is still extremely high and demonstrates exceptional operating leverage.\nFree cash flowwas £388M, up from $55M in Q3 last year. That's a 50% free cash flow margin (!). Management intends to maintain a high R&D budget of 10% of sales over the long-term. Thus, Zoom's high free cash flow generation allows Zoom to continue fuelling growth.\nThe outlookis excellent in our view. The FY21 revenue of 2.58B is a five-fold increase from FY20. Q4'21 revenue will be almost 40% higher than the entire revenue in FY20.\n\nFY2022 and beyond looks good too. The following slide shows that $1.63B of revenue is already under contract, of which $1.18B could be realized in the next four quarters.\n\nWe struggle to see anything that comes out as a red flag here. Next, let's look if Zoom is reasonably priced to start a position?\nValuation\nAs of writing, Zoom is priced at just below the $100B market cap. With $2.58B of projected FY21 sales, the stock is priced at about 40x EV/Sales. It is also priced at about 30x Forward EV/FY2022 Sales.\nThe Forward EV/Sales is based on the premise of annualized Q4'21 revenue of $810M, or $3.24B for FY22. The number is in-line with Zoom delivering about 30% revenue growth, which is not a lot to ask as Zoom's DBNER is already at 130%.\nAs a reminder, Zoom was valued at 36x at IPO and around 40x EV/Sales pre-pandemic.\nIs Zoom as 'valuable' as it was pre-pandemic or at IPO? While Zoom is much larger, it is also a much more formidable company that possesses way more avenues to growth. Again, it has proven to be extremely efficient in scaling as the free cash flow margin reaching 50% in Q3'21 and higher than the likes of Salesforce (CRM) on an annualized basis, $1.65B vs. $1.4B.\nOverall, we find the current valuation to be extremely attractive to start a position.\nInvestment risks\nWe believe investing in Zoom today carries fewer risks thanks to the proven product-market fit, viral brand name, scalability, and importantly, at the helm, Zoom has Eric Yuan, who is highly motivated and visionary. Nevertheless, technology changes fast, and the threat of disruption is real.\nWhile Zoom has the brand name, Zoom's 'one size fits all' solution will be challenged by new companies.\nWe highly recommend reading this blog post about Zoom's verticalization, whereJJ Oslund explainshow new companies may pose the biggest threat to Zoom by carving out the 'edge cases' that Zoom cannot meet due to its lack of focus.\n\nConclusion\nIf you feel the risk of Zoom going obsolete due to disruption is significant and will happen soon, I don't blame you for giving Zoom a pass. However, Zoom's high valuation and the short-term sentiment that Zoom is a Covid stock are not good reasons for not considering it.\nRemember that Zoom is a best-of-breed SaaS company that can touch everyone (almost)'s lives. In effect, Zoom is listening, watching, and collecting the most granule data from people's lives, at work and home. The data Zoom collects provides optionality long into the future. For the short to medium term, Zoom Phone, better monetization, K-12 free users' conversion, and expansion into telehealth, commerce, workflow, fitness, and internationally should provide a surprise boost to Zoom's growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394475790,"gmtCreate":1608102748010,"gmtModify":1703851141879,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]","listText":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394475790","repostId":"1172424637","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1172424637","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1607685654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172424637?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-11 19:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"硬核拆解Sea：新生代\"阿里+腾讯+美团\"的估值逻辑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172424637","media":"美股研究社","summary":"虽然目前Sea在绝大部分国家确实占据了领先优势，但来自竞争对手的压力依然不容小觑。近年来，新兴的东南亚互联网市场成为众多企业的掘金地，它们无不是相中了这块土地上存在的巨大可能。东南亚主要六个国家的互联","content":"<blockquote>虽然目前Sea在绝大部分国家确实占据了领先优势，但来自竞争对手的压力依然不容小觑。</blockquote><p>近年来，新兴的东南亚互联网市场成为众多企业的掘金地，它们无不是相中了这块土地上存在的巨大可能。</p><p>东南亚主要六个国家的互联网覆盖达到3.6亿人口，占六国人口的60%。其中90%的互联网用户通过智能手机上网，且用户偏向年轻化。这些满足了东南亚产业爆发的条件，因此吸引了包括阿里、腾讯科技巨头的目光，也诞生出Sea、Lazada等一批独角兽企业。</p><p>其中，Sea Limited由于自身不俗的业务表现，而受到了资本市场的青睐。其股价在今年已累计上涨超过394%至198.95美元，市值逼近千亿美元关口。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27c17094bef704d5ba24f8599151242\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"456\">作为东南亚市场中相对领先的企业，其细分业务与阿里巴巴、腾讯、亚马逊等巨头存在着相似性。随着这一市场走向成熟，Sea是否能够复刻它们的成功，十分值得期待。美股研究社将结合权威研报数据，探索Sea Limited未来的成长空间以及可能会面临的风险因素。</p><p><b>手持游戏、电商、金融服务三把\"利剑\"</b></p><p>Sea成立于2009年5月，于2017年上市。数据显示，截至2020年12月9日，Tencent Holdings Limited持股比例为22.67%，Forrest Xiaodong Li为9.31%。腾讯是Sea背后的第一大股东。</p><p>Sea的主要业务分为数字娱乐、电子商务、数字金融这三大板块，对应的部门为Garena、Shopee和SeaMoney。</p><p>从整体上看，今年第三季度的GAAP总营收为12.12亿美元，同比增长98.7%。2019年第二季度至今，营收规模大致呈现扩大趋势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b838b4901b08d4b7b50844bf7aef03\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"471\"></p><p>今年第三季度净亏损4.25亿美元，较去年同期的亏损2.06亿美元大幅扩大。去年累计亏损金额约为14.58亿美元，而今年前三季度共亏损约为10.99亿美元。因此，2020年亏损金额可能会略高于去年水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/014e6114ac789957bb8d05ad0e298f60\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"476\"></p><p>目前，Sea的三大业务板块对整体业绩都做出了不小的贡献，因此可以先分各个业务板块来进行单独剖析。</p><p><b>一．Garena：背靠腾讯，出海剑指全球市场</b></p><p>Garena部门已成Sea整体营收的关键支柱。根据Newzoo和Niko Partners测算，按收入来看，Garena在2019年的网络游戏市场份额在公司运营地区排名第一。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd51dff0d60c13400119148e2ce908c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\"></p><p>回归到财报，该部门的营收规模从去年Q3的3.29亿美元扩大至今年Q3的5.69亿美元，处于稳步上行的趋势中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e352be6feeea784a6e4acea364f454\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"473\"></p><p>该部门的营收成绩与用户相关数据的激增有着直接联系。</p><ul><li><p>今年Q3活跃用户数达到5.724亿，较去年同期增长78.3%；</p></li><li><p>付费用户数量达到6530万，同比增长123.6%。付费率从去年Q3的9.1%升至今年Q3的11.4%；</p></li><li><p>每位用户的平均预定额从去年同期的1.4美元升至1.7美元。</p></li></ul><p>单拎出付费率这一指标，目前已高于行业平均水平。2019年《全球手游分析报告》指出，平均付费意愿最高的为RPG类型游戏，付费率为2.4%。这从侧面反映出，体验Garena业务的用户表现出相对更强的付费意愿。</p><p>近几年，Garena成为《Arena of Valor》是所在地区的独家运营商，该款是与腾讯合作开发的移动端MOBA游戏。</p><p>在这之后，Garena部门通过自研的全球热门游戏《Free Fire》快速抢占了东南亚市场。该游戏的玩法类似于PUBG，但它的优势是实现充分\"本土化\"。因此，适合东南亚等新兴市场里较多的低性能手机。</p><p>根据App Annie数据显示，Free Fire是2019年全球下载量最大的手机游戏。据Sensor Tower今年10月数据，《Free Fire》在全球移动游戏下载量中位列第四位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb019d7d5e42f741e35f3fcff8b825c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"692\"></p><p>在此基础上，Garena采取了诸多动作拓展游戏业务。今年1月，收购了游戏工作室Phoennix Labs。该工作室由三位前拳头公司的游戏开发者共同创立，并且拥有多位来自于动视暴雪、拳头游戏的老员工，这将进一步增强其自研游戏内容的能力。</p><p>也正是因为自研游戏的影响，Garena逐渐扩大了游戏业务的范围。目前已涉及到北美、中东各国，能够赋予该部门更广阔的收入增长空间。</p><p>未来向全球市场进一步扩张后，知名度有望随之提升。这将帮助Garena在全球市场与更多优质的第三方开发商达成合作，还能促进和现有开发商的深度合作。</p><p>其中，Garena与腾讯之间一直建立着紧密的联系。早在2018年，Garena与腾讯签订5年的优先购买协议。前者可以在印尼、泰国等东南亚地区发行腾讯旗下的手游和PC游戏。</p><p>此外，还与PUBG、电子艺界、动视暴雪等游戏公司建立合作，借此将帮助其持续扩大影响力。通过这些合作，Garena可以持续获取优质和具有影响力的游戏资源，从而进一步扩大全球用户规模和提高付费意愿。</p><p><b>二．Shopee：东南亚\"淘宝\"，具备腾讯拼多多\"流量\"基因</b></p><p>Shopee部门专注电商业务，从早期的小范围市场逐渐拓展至整个东南亚地区。该部门的业绩保持着高速增长，可从财报中窥知一二。</p><ul><li><p>电商收入从去年Q3的2.30亿美元逐渐扩大至4.90亿美元，同比增长113.1%</p></li><li><p>商品销售收入则从0.51亿美元逐渐增长至1.54亿美元，同比增长199.3%；</p></li><li><p>商品总价值（GMV）为93亿美元，同比增长102.7%。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57d6109391fed776d6f59687110a3bfa\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"469\"></p><p>目前，Shopee已成为东南亚市场最受欢迎的购物软件之一。据App Annie数据，Shopee在今年三季度的购物类别中是全球下载量第二的应用。而且，用户在安卓应用程序上花费的总时间在这一类别中排名第一。</p><p>取得如此成绩，除了当下处于电商风口外，自身运营模式起到关键作用。其走低价路线的C2C模式，专注于长尾市场，类似于淘宝。在发展尚未成熟的市场中，用户更加注重商品的性价比，因此\"接地气\"的Shopee似乎更受欢迎。</p><p>掌握了这一吸引消费者的\"利器\"后，快速实现了对Lazada和Tokopedia的反超。根据IPrice数据显示，自去年年底以来，Shopee每月的访问量已经超过了Tokopedia。</p><p>阿里巴巴在2021财年Q1报告中指出，本季度Lazada季度订单量同比增长超过100%。但是与Shopee部门相比，则稍显不足。</p><p>Lazada走的B2C模式，注重突出品牌，而且只推出了一个综合性APP。但Shopee除了走不同的低价路线，为各个东南亚站点打造了不同的购物APP，此外还引入了许多社交和游戏化元素。这些\"本土化\"策略都有助于提高用户的停留时间以及留存率。</p><p>Shopee通过社交、游戏化玩法来获取流量的方式与拼多多十分相似。不仅如此，在腾讯的资金加持下，\"本土化\"策略中还有着其他抓住流量的策略。比如，针对东南亚地区的用户，邀请K-pop女团参加不同的大促活动；在社交平台Ins上开通了自己的官网账号，方便用户浏览商品。</p><p>基于\"本土化\"策略，Shopee未来依然有望享受电商行业发展带来的红利。根据Data Reportal 测算，随着更多互联网用户习惯于网上购物，以及他们消费能力的提高，东南亚将在未来十年内继续享受电商消费的两位数增长。自然地，包括Shopee在内的电商平台都会因此受益。</p><p><b>三． SeaMoney：创新\"美团\"钱包，协同发挥\"飞轮效应\"</b></p><p>SeaMoney可以说是Sea创新的业务部门之一，它的服务与产品主要分为支付和金融服务两大类。其中，前者又分为移动钱包和场下支付，后者分为消费贷、现金贷和卖家融资。目前这些服务和产品已向东南亚多个国家的市场提供。</p><p>据 World Bank 的数据显示，在东南亚大部分国家，信用卡的普及率较低。目前东南亚地区仅有 4%的人口拥有信用卡，比全球18%的平均水平低4倍多。同时，结构化金融服务的普及率也并不高，这给予了Sea Money良好的发展基础。</p><p>早期，推出该业务给 Garena 提供了高性价比的支付解决方案。此后，SeaMoney与第三方商户进行整合，覆盖了包括食品、娱乐、交通等消费途径。目前已经被打造成一站式支付平台，与本地商户等结合，帮助双方降低交易成本。</p><p>而且，SeaMoney的增长将会受益于Garena 和 Shopee 业务，后两者能够为其提供庞大的用户基础。将SeaMoney嵌入全球的Shopee平台，帮助电商消费者解决了支付难题。</p><p>随着SeaMoney拓展了更多的支付场景，比如银行、保险、娱乐场所等等，反过来又吸引大量消费者进入平台。满足好用户的日常需求后，也可以为其他两大业务引导用户群体。</p><p>Sea Money相对于其他两项业务还处于发展初期，因此成长空间也更加广阔。未来，通过与Garena 和 Shopee 合作产生的协同效应，三大业务有望更好实现同步增长。</p><p><b>新兴市场潜力待挖掘：Sea距离阿里跟腾讯市值规模差多远？</b></p><p>由于Sea Limited有不同的业务，而且其中一项业务亏损，会导致PE估值法出现误差，所以美股研究社采用SOTP估值法评估其内在价值。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b53a204d49c56f7ffee03995bd7fe3fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"></p><p>首先，<b>Garena部门</b>将利用同行业中可比公司的EV/EBITDA 数值进行估值：</p><p>据Wind数据显示，Garena部门2017年-2019年的EBITDA分别为74.26、104.62、547.60。若按80%和50%的同比增速计算，预测2020年和2021年的EBITDA分别为985.68、1478.52。</p><p>以下为游戏行业美股上市的可比公司数据，平均EV/EBITDA为29.78。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a08ae15d80677ed3b08024624ad29a34\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"403\"></p><p>而<b>Shopee部门</b>将使用同行业中可比公司的EV/GMV 数值进行估值：</p><p>据Wind数据显示，Shopee部门的2017-2019年的GMV分别为4100、10300、17600。若按80%和60%的同比增速计算，预测2020年和2021年的GMV分别为31680和50688。</p><p>以下为电商行业美股上市可比公司数据，平均EV/GMV为1.54。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76db20022b0b081baa546471aa4ad814\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p>接着，<b>Sea Money部门</b>将使用同行业中可比公司的EV/TPV 数值进行估值：</p><p>据Wind数据显示，2020Q1-2020Q3的TPV分别为1000、1600和2100。预测2020Q4的TPV为2600，那么推算2020年全年为7300，2021年为10000。</p><p>以下为金融服务行业美股上市的可比公司数据，平均EV/TPV为0.34。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/540d84a0c71414d8c903c3f653c1f091\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>最终，测算出其Garena、Shopee、SeaMoney部门在2021年的EV分别为44030.33、78059.52、3400.00。因此Sea的总企业价值约为125489.85，通过SOTP估值法得出2021年的可能目标价格为231.72美元。</p><p>目前共有17位分析师给予Sea评级，综合为强力买入。而共有16家机构做出预测，最新的平均目标价为202.213美元。</p><p><b>美股研究社认为，</b>尽管Sea今年以来各项业务取得不俗的成绩并受到资本市场的青睐，但依然有着一些潜在的风险不容忽视。</p><p>目前整体营收的同比增长正趋向平缓，最新季度则首次跌下100%水平。这释放出一个不健康的信号，是否投资者会因为其失去高增速而不青睐Sea是一个较大不确定性。</p><p>具体到各个业务来看，游戏产品具有一定的生命周期，如Free Fire、使命召唤等爆款手游实现充分商业化后，难以避免出现营收放缓的情况。因此，如何开发更高品质的手游来吸引新用户付费是Sea需要思考的问题。</p><p>虽然目前Sea在绝大部分国家确实占据了领先优势，但来自竞争对手的压力依然不容小觑。Lazada也覆盖了主要的东南亚国家和地区，而Tokopedia更专注于印度尼西亚这个国家。</p><p>此外，Sea对于发展电商和金融服务业务都有不小的投入。对于这两部分业务，开展营销工作是必不可少的，但也使得Sea一直未摆脱亏损的困境。若要实现稳定盈利，达成规模效应后进行控费是其中重要的一环。未来Sea发展如何，美股研究社将会持续关注。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>硬核拆解Sea：新生代\"阿里+腾讯+美团\"的估值逻辑</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n硬核拆解Sea：新生代\"阿里+腾讯+美团\"的估值逻辑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-11 19:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>虽然目前Sea在绝大部分国家确实占据了领先优势，但来自竞争对手的压力依然不容小觑。</blockquote><p>近年来，新兴的东南亚互联网市场成为众多企业的掘金地，它们无不是相中了这块土地上存在的巨大可能。</p><p>东南亚主要六个国家的互联网覆盖达到3.6亿人口，占六国人口的60%。其中90%的互联网用户通过智能手机上网，且用户偏向年轻化。这些满足了东南亚产业爆发的条件，因此吸引了包括阿里、腾讯科技巨头的目光，也诞生出Sea、Lazada等一批独角兽企业。</p><p>其中，Sea Limited由于自身不俗的业务表现，而受到了资本市场的青睐。其股价在今年已累计上涨超过394%至198.95美元，市值逼近千亿美元关口。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27c17094bef704d5ba24f8599151242\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"456\">作为东南亚市场中相对领先的企业，其细分业务与阿里巴巴、腾讯、亚马逊等巨头存在着相似性。随着这一市场走向成熟，Sea是否能够复刻它们的成功，十分值得期待。美股研究社将结合权威研报数据，探索Sea Limited未来的成长空间以及可能会面临的风险因素。</p><p><b>手持游戏、电商、金融服务三把\"利剑\"</b></p><p>Sea成立于2009年5月，于2017年上市。数据显示，截至2020年12月9日，Tencent Holdings Limited持股比例为22.67%，Forrest Xiaodong Li为9.31%。腾讯是Sea背后的第一大股东。</p><p>Sea的主要业务分为数字娱乐、电子商务、数字金融这三大板块，对应的部门为Garena、Shopee和SeaMoney。</p><p>从整体上看，今年第三季度的GAAP总营收为12.12亿美元，同比增长98.7%。2019年第二季度至今，营收规模大致呈现扩大趋势。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b838b4901b08d4b7b50844bf7aef03\" tg-width=\"963\" tg-height=\"471\"></p><p>今年第三季度净亏损4.25亿美元，较去年同期的亏损2.06亿美元大幅扩大。去年累计亏损金额约为14.58亿美元，而今年前三季度共亏损约为10.99亿美元。因此，2020年亏损金额可能会略高于去年水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/014e6114ac789957bb8d05ad0e298f60\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"476\"></p><p>目前，Sea的三大业务板块对整体业绩都做出了不小的贡献，因此可以先分各个业务板块来进行单独剖析。</p><p><b>一．Garena：背靠腾讯，出海剑指全球市场</b></p><p>Garena部门已成Sea整体营收的关键支柱。根据Newzoo和Niko Partners测算，按收入来看，Garena在2019年的网络游戏市场份额在公司运营地区排名第一。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd51dff0d60c13400119148e2ce908c4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"433\"></p><p>回归到财报，该部门的营收规模从去年Q3的3.29亿美元扩大至今年Q3的5.69亿美元，处于稳步上行的趋势中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04e352be6feeea784a6e4acea364f454\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"473\"></p><p>该部门的营收成绩与用户相关数据的激增有着直接联系。</p><ul><li><p>今年Q3活跃用户数达到5.724亿，较去年同期增长78.3%；</p></li><li><p>付费用户数量达到6530万，同比增长123.6%。付费率从去年Q3的9.1%升至今年Q3的11.4%；</p></li><li><p>每位用户的平均预定额从去年同期的1.4美元升至1.7美元。</p></li></ul><p>单拎出付费率这一指标，目前已高于行业平均水平。2019年《全球手游分析报告》指出，平均付费意愿最高的为RPG类型游戏，付费率为2.4%。这从侧面反映出，体验Garena业务的用户表现出相对更强的付费意愿。</p><p>近几年，Garena成为《Arena of Valor》是所在地区的独家运营商，该款是与腾讯合作开发的移动端MOBA游戏。</p><p>在这之后，Garena部门通过自研的全球热门游戏《Free Fire》快速抢占了东南亚市场。该游戏的玩法类似于PUBG，但它的优势是实现充分\"本土化\"。因此，适合东南亚等新兴市场里较多的低性能手机。</p><p>根据App Annie数据显示，Free Fire是2019年全球下载量最大的手机游戏。据Sensor Tower今年10月数据，《Free Fire》在全球移动游戏下载量中位列第四位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb019d7d5e42f741e35f3fcff8b825c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"692\"></p><p>在此基础上，Garena采取了诸多动作拓展游戏业务。今年1月，收购了游戏工作室Phoennix Labs。该工作室由三位前拳头公司的游戏开发者共同创立，并且拥有多位来自于动视暴雪、拳头游戏的老员工，这将进一步增强其自研游戏内容的能力。</p><p>也正是因为自研游戏的影响，Garena逐渐扩大了游戏业务的范围。目前已涉及到北美、中东各国，能够赋予该部门更广阔的收入增长空间。</p><p>未来向全球市场进一步扩张后，知名度有望随之提升。这将帮助Garena在全球市场与更多优质的第三方开发商达成合作，还能促进和现有开发商的深度合作。</p><p>其中，Garena与腾讯之间一直建立着紧密的联系。早在2018年，Garena与腾讯签订5年的优先购买协议。前者可以在印尼、泰国等东南亚地区发行腾讯旗下的手游和PC游戏。</p><p>此外，还与PUBG、电子艺界、动视暴雪等游戏公司建立合作，借此将帮助其持续扩大影响力。通过这些合作，Garena可以持续获取优质和具有影响力的游戏资源，从而进一步扩大全球用户规模和提高付费意愿。</p><p><b>二．Shopee：东南亚\"淘宝\"，具备腾讯拼多多\"流量\"基因</b></p><p>Shopee部门专注电商业务，从早期的小范围市场逐渐拓展至整个东南亚地区。该部门的业绩保持着高速增长，可从财报中窥知一二。</p><ul><li><p>电商收入从去年Q3的2.30亿美元逐渐扩大至4.90亿美元，同比增长113.1%</p></li><li><p>商品销售收入则从0.51亿美元逐渐增长至1.54亿美元，同比增长199.3%；</p></li><li><p>商品总价值（GMV）为93亿美元，同比增长102.7%。</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57d6109391fed776d6f59687110a3bfa\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"469\"></p><p>目前，Shopee已成为东南亚市场最受欢迎的购物软件之一。据App Annie数据，Shopee在今年三季度的购物类别中是全球下载量第二的应用。而且，用户在安卓应用程序上花费的总时间在这一类别中排名第一。</p><p>取得如此成绩，除了当下处于电商风口外，自身运营模式起到关键作用。其走低价路线的C2C模式，专注于长尾市场，类似于淘宝。在发展尚未成熟的市场中，用户更加注重商品的性价比，因此\"接地气\"的Shopee似乎更受欢迎。</p><p>掌握了这一吸引消费者的\"利器\"后，快速实现了对Lazada和Tokopedia的反超。根据IPrice数据显示，自去年年底以来，Shopee每月的访问量已经超过了Tokopedia。</p><p>阿里巴巴在2021财年Q1报告中指出，本季度Lazada季度订单量同比增长超过100%。但是与Shopee部门相比，则稍显不足。</p><p>Lazada走的B2C模式，注重突出品牌，而且只推出了一个综合性APP。但Shopee除了走不同的低价路线，为各个东南亚站点打造了不同的购物APP，此外还引入了许多社交和游戏化元素。这些\"本土化\"策略都有助于提高用户的停留时间以及留存率。</p><p>Shopee通过社交、游戏化玩法来获取流量的方式与拼多多十分相似。不仅如此，在腾讯的资金加持下，\"本土化\"策略中还有着其他抓住流量的策略。比如，针对东南亚地区的用户，邀请K-pop女团参加不同的大促活动；在社交平台Ins上开通了自己的官网账号，方便用户浏览商品。</p><p>基于\"本土化\"策略，Shopee未来依然有望享受电商行业发展带来的红利。根据Data Reportal 测算，随着更多互联网用户习惯于网上购物，以及他们消费能力的提高，东南亚将在未来十年内继续享受电商消费的两位数增长。自然地，包括Shopee在内的电商平台都会因此受益。</p><p><b>三． SeaMoney：创新\"美团\"钱包，协同发挥\"飞轮效应\"</b></p><p>SeaMoney可以说是Sea创新的业务部门之一，它的服务与产品主要分为支付和金融服务两大类。其中，前者又分为移动钱包和场下支付，后者分为消费贷、现金贷和卖家融资。目前这些服务和产品已向东南亚多个国家的市场提供。</p><p>据 World Bank 的数据显示，在东南亚大部分国家，信用卡的普及率较低。目前东南亚地区仅有 4%的人口拥有信用卡，比全球18%的平均水平低4倍多。同时，结构化金融服务的普及率也并不高，这给予了Sea Money良好的发展基础。</p><p>早期，推出该业务给 Garena 提供了高性价比的支付解决方案。此后，SeaMoney与第三方商户进行整合，覆盖了包括食品、娱乐、交通等消费途径。目前已经被打造成一站式支付平台，与本地商户等结合，帮助双方降低交易成本。</p><p>而且，SeaMoney的增长将会受益于Garena 和 Shopee 业务，后两者能够为其提供庞大的用户基础。将SeaMoney嵌入全球的Shopee平台，帮助电商消费者解决了支付难题。</p><p>随着SeaMoney拓展了更多的支付场景，比如银行、保险、娱乐场所等等，反过来又吸引大量消费者进入平台。满足好用户的日常需求后，也可以为其他两大业务引导用户群体。</p><p>Sea Money相对于其他两项业务还处于发展初期，因此成长空间也更加广阔。未来，通过与Garena 和 Shopee 合作产生的协同效应，三大业务有望更好实现同步增长。</p><p><b>新兴市场潜力待挖掘：Sea距离阿里跟腾讯市值规模差多远？</b></p><p>由于Sea Limited有不同的业务，而且其中一项业务亏损，会导致PE估值法出现误差，所以美股研究社采用SOTP估值法评估其内在价值。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b53a204d49c56f7ffee03995bd7fe3fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"></p><p>首先，<b>Garena部门</b>将利用同行业中可比公司的EV/EBITDA 数值进行估值：</p><p>据Wind数据显示，Garena部门2017年-2019年的EBITDA分别为74.26、104.62、547.60。若按80%和50%的同比增速计算，预测2020年和2021年的EBITDA分别为985.68、1478.52。</p><p>以下为游戏行业美股上市的可比公司数据，平均EV/EBITDA为29.78。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a08ae15d80677ed3b08024624ad29a34\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"403\"></p><p>而<b>Shopee部门</b>将使用同行业中可比公司的EV/GMV 数值进行估值：</p><p>据Wind数据显示，Shopee部门的2017-2019年的GMV分别为4100、10300、17600。若按80%和60%的同比增速计算，预测2020年和2021年的GMV分别为31680和50688。</p><p>以下为电商行业美股上市可比公司数据，平均EV/GMV为1.54。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76db20022b0b081baa546471aa4ad814\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p>接着，<b>Sea Money部门</b>将使用同行业中可比公司的EV/TPV 数值进行估值：</p><p>据Wind数据显示，2020Q1-2020Q3的TPV分别为1000、1600和2100。预测2020Q4的TPV为2600，那么推算2020年全年为7300，2021年为10000。</p><p>以下为金融服务行业美股上市的可比公司数据，平均EV/TPV为0.34。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/540d84a0c71414d8c903c3f653c1f091\" tg-width=\"753\" tg-height=\"718\"></p><p>最终，测算出其Garena、Shopee、SeaMoney部门在2021年的EV分别为44030.33、78059.52、3400.00。因此Sea的总企业价值约为125489.85，通过SOTP估值法得出2021年的可能目标价格为231.72美元。</p><p>目前共有17位分析师给予Sea评级，综合为强力买入。而共有16家机构做出预测，最新的平均目标价为202.213美元。</p><p><b>美股研究社认为，</b>尽管Sea今年以来各项业务取得不俗的成绩并受到资本市场的青睐，但依然有着一些潜在的风险不容忽视。</p><p>目前整体营收的同比增长正趋向平缓，最新季度则首次跌下100%水平。这释放出一个不健康的信号，是否投资者会因为其失去高增速而不青睐Sea是一个较大不确定性。</p><p>具体到各个业务来看，游戏产品具有一定的生命周期，如Free Fire、使命召唤等爆款手游实现充分商业化后，难以避免出现营收放缓的情况。因此，如何开发更高品质的手游来吸引新用户付费是Sea需要思考的问题。</p><p>虽然目前Sea在绝大部分国家确实占据了领先优势，但来自竞争对手的压力依然不容小觑。Lazada也覆盖了主要的东南亚国家和地区，而Tokopedia更专注于印度尼西亚这个国家。</p><p>此外，Sea对于发展电商和金融服务业务都有不小的投入。对于这两部分业务，开展营销工作是必不可少的，但也使得Sea一直未摆脱亏损的困境。若要实现稳定盈利，达成规模效应后进行控费是其中重要的一环。未来Sea发展如何，美股研究社将会持续关注。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6e39aeac5f42e729ef9f0a35f880ba","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172424637","content_text":"虽然目前Sea在绝大部分国家确实占据了领先优势，但来自竞争对手的压力依然不容小觑。近年来，新兴的东南亚互联网市场成为众多企业的掘金地，它们无不是相中了这块土地上存在的巨大可能。东南亚主要六个国家的互联网覆盖达到3.6亿人口，占六国人口的60%。其中90%的互联网用户通过智能手机上网，且用户偏向年轻化。这些满足了东南亚产业爆发的条件，因此吸引了包括阿里、腾讯科技巨头的目光，也诞生出Sea、Lazada等一批独角兽企业。其中，Sea Limited由于自身不俗的业务表现，而受到了资本市场的青睐。其股价在今年已累计上涨超过394%至198.95美元，市值逼近千亿美元关口。作为东南亚市场中相对领先的企业，其细分业务与阿里巴巴、腾讯、亚马逊等巨头存在着相似性。随着这一市场走向成熟，Sea是否能够复刻它们的成功，十分值得期待。美股研究社将结合权威研报数据，探索Sea Limited未来的成长空间以及可能会面临的风险因素。手持游戏、电商、金融服务三把\"利剑\"Sea成立于2009年5月，于2017年上市。数据显示，截至2020年12月9日，Tencent Holdings Limited持股比例为22.67%，Forrest Xiaodong Li为9.31%。腾讯是Sea背后的第一大股东。Sea的主要业务分为数字娱乐、电子商务、数字金融这三大板块，对应的部门为Garena、Shopee和SeaMoney。从整体上看，今年第三季度的GAAP总营收为12.12亿美元，同比增长98.7%。2019年第二季度至今，营收规模大致呈现扩大趋势。今年第三季度净亏损4.25亿美元，较去年同期的亏损2.06亿美元大幅扩大。去年累计亏损金额约为14.58亿美元，而今年前三季度共亏损约为10.99亿美元。因此，2020年亏损金额可能会略高于去年水平。目前，Sea的三大业务板块对整体业绩都做出了不小的贡献，因此可以先分各个业务板块来进行单独剖析。一．Garena：背靠腾讯，出海剑指全球市场Garena部门已成Sea整体营收的关键支柱。根据Newzoo和Niko Partners测算，按收入来看，Garena在2019年的网络游戏市场份额在公司运营地区排名第一。回归到财报，该部门的营收规模从去年Q3的3.29亿美元扩大至今年Q3的5.69亿美元，处于稳步上行的趋势中。该部门的营收成绩与用户相关数据的激增有着直接联系。今年Q3活跃用户数达到5.724亿，较去年同期增长78.3%；付费用户数量达到6530万，同比增长123.6%。付费率从去年Q3的9.1%升至今年Q3的11.4%；每位用户的平均预定额从去年同期的1.4美元升至1.7美元。单拎出付费率这一指标，目前已高于行业平均水平。2019年《全球手游分析报告》指出，平均付费意愿最高的为RPG类型游戏，付费率为2.4%。这从侧面反映出，体验Garena业务的用户表现出相对更强的付费意愿。近几年，Garena成为《Arena of Valor》是所在地区的独家运营商，该款是与腾讯合作开发的移动端MOBA游戏。在这之后，Garena部门通过自研的全球热门游戏《Free Fire》快速抢占了东南亚市场。该游戏的玩法类似于PUBG，但它的优势是实现充分\"本土化\"。因此，适合东南亚等新兴市场里较多的低性能手机。根据App Annie数据显示，Free Fire是2019年全球下载量最大的手机游戏。据Sensor Tower今年10月数据，《Free Fire》在全球移动游戏下载量中位列第四位。在此基础上，Garena采取了诸多动作拓展游戏业务。今年1月，收购了游戏工作室Phoennix Labs。该工作室由三位前拳头公司的游戏开发者共同创立，并且拥有多位来自于动视暴雪、拳头游戏的老员工，这将进一步增强其自研游戏内容的能力。也正是因为自研游戏的影响，Garena逐渐扩大了游戏业务的范围。目前已涉及到北美、中东各国，能够赋予该部门更广阔的收入增长空间。未来向全球市场进一步扩张后，知名度有望随之提升。这将帮助Garena在全球市场与更多优质的第三方开发商达成合作，还能促进和现有开发商的深度合作。其中，Garena与腾讯之间一直建立着紧密的联系。早在2018年，Garena与腾讯签订5年的优先购买协议。前者可以在印尼、泰国等东南亚地区发行腾讯旗下的手游和PC游戏。此外，还与PUBG、电子艺界、动视暴雪等游戏公司建立合作，借此将帮助其持续扩大影响力。通过这些合作，Garena可以持续获取优质和具有影响力的游戏资源，从而进一步扩大全球用户规模和提高付费意愿。二．Shopee：东南亚\"淘宝\"，具备腾讯拼多多\"流量\"基因Shopee部门专注电商业务，从早期的小范围市场逐渐拓展至整个东南亚地区。该部门的业绩保持着高速增长，可从财报中窥知一二。电商收入从去年Q3的2.30亿美元逐渐扩大至4.90亿美元，同比增长113.1%商品销售收入则从0.51亿美元逐渐增长至1.54亿美元，同比增长199.3%；商品总价值（GMV）为93亿美元，同比增长102.7%。目前，Shopee已成为东南亚市场最受欢迎的购物软件之一。据App Annie数据，Shopee在今年三季度的购物类别中是全球下载量第二的应用。而且，用户在安卓应用程序上花费的总时间在这一类别中排名第一。取得如此成绩，除了当下处于电商风口外，自身运营模式起到关键作用。其走低价路线的C2C模式，专注于长尾市场，类似于淘宝。在发展尚未成熟的市场中，用户更加注重商品的性价比，因此\"接地气\"的Shopee似乎更受欢迎。掌握了这一吸引消费者的\"利器\"后，快速实现了对Lazada和Tokopedia的反超。根据IPrice数据显示，自去年年底以来，Shopee每月的访问量已经超过了Tokopedia。阿里巴巴在2021财年Q1报告中指出，本季度Lazada季度订单量同比增长超过100%。但是与Shopee部门相比，则稍显不足。Lazada走的B2C模式，注重突出品牌，而且只推出了一个综合性APP。但Shopee除了走不同的低价路线，为各个东南亚站点打造了不同的购物APP，此外还引入了许多社交和游戏化元素。这些\"本土化\"策略都有助于提高用户的停留时间以及留存率。Shopee通过社交、游戏化玩法来获取流量的方式与拼多多十分相似。不仅如此，在腾讯的资金加持下，\"本土化\"策略中还有着其他抓住流量的策略。比如，针对东南亚地区的用户，邀请K-pop女团参加不同的大促活动；在社交平台Ins上开通了自己的官网账号，方便用户浏览商品。基于\"本土化\"策略，Shopee未来依然有望享受电商行业发展带来的红利。根据Data Reportal 测算，随着更多互联网用户习惯于网上购物，以及他们消费能力的提高，东南亚将在未来十年内继续享受电商消费的两位数增长。自然地，包括Shopee在内的电商平台都会因此受益。三． SeaMoney：创新\"美团\"钱包，协同发挥\"飞轮效应\"SeaMoney可以说是Sea创新的业务部门之一，它的服务与产品主要分为支付和金融服务两大类。其中，前者又分为移动钱包和场下支付，后者分为消费贷、现金贷和卖家融资。目前这些服务和产品已向东南亚多个国家的市场提供。据 World Bank 的数据显示，在东南亚大部分国家，信用卡的普及率较低。目前东南亚地区仅有 4%的人口拥有信用卡，比全球18%的平均水平低4倍多。同时，结构化金融服务的普及率也并不高，这给予了Sea Money良好的发展基础。早期，推出该业务给 Garena 提供了高性价比的支付解决方案。此后，SeaMoney与第三方商户进行整合，覆盖了包括食品、娱乐、交通等消费途径。目前已经被打造成一站式支付平台，与本地商户等结合，帮助双方降低交易成本。而且，SeaMoney的增长将会受益于Garena 和 Shopee 业务，后两者能够为其提供庞大的用户基础。将SeaMoney嵌入全球的Shopee平台，帮助电商消费者解决了支付难题。随着SeaMoney拓展了更多的支付场景，比如银行、保险、娱乐场所等等，反过来又吸引大量消费者进入平台。满足好用户的日常需求后，也可以为其他两大业务引导用户群体。Sea Money相对于其他两项业务还处于发展初期，因此成长空间也更加广阔。未来，通过与Garena 和 Shopee 合作产生的协同效应，三大业务有望更好实现同步增长。新兴市场潜力待挖掘：Sea距离阿里跟腾讯市值规模差多远？由于Sea Limited有不同的业务，而且其中一项业务亏损，会导致PE估值法出现误差，所以美股研究社采用SOTP估值法评估其内在价值。首先，Garena部门将利用同行业中可比公司的EV/EBITDA 数值进行估值：据Wind数据显示，Garena部门2017年-2019年的EBITDA分别为74.26、104.62、547.60。若按80%和50%的同比增速计算，预测2020年和2021年的EBITDA分别为985.68、1478.52。以下为游戏行业美股上市的可比公司数据，平均EV/EBITDA为29.78。而Shopee部门将使用同行业中可比公司的EV/GMV 数值进行估值：据Wind数据显示，Shopee部门的2017-2019年的GMV分别为4100、10300、17600。若按80%和60%的同比增速计算，预测2020年和2021年的GMV分别为31680和50688。以下为电商行业美股上市可比公司数据，平均EV/GMV为1.54。接着，Sea Money部门将使用同行业中可比公司的EV/TPV 数值进行估值：据Wind数据显示，2020Q1-2020Q3的TPV分别为1000、1600和2100。预测2020Q4的TPV为2600，那么推算2020年全年为7300，2021年为10000。以下为金融服务行业美股上市的可比公司数据，平均EV/TPV为0.34。最终，测算出其Garena、Shopee、SeaMoney部门在2021年的EV分别为44030.33、78059.52、3400.00。因此Sea的总企业价值约为125489.85，通过SOTP估值法得出2021年的可能目标价格为231.72美元。目前共有17位分析师给予Sea评级，综合为强力买入。而共有16家机构做出预测，最新的平均目标价为202.213美元。美股研究社认为，尽管Sea今年以来各项业务取得不俗的成绩并受到资本市场的青睐，但依然有着一些潜在的风险不容忽视。目前整体营收的同比增长正趋向平缓，最新季度则首次跌下100%水平。这释放出一个不健康的信号，是否投资者会因为其失去高增速而不青睐Sea是一个较大不确定性。具体到各个业务来看，游戏产品具有一定的生命周期，如Free Fire、使命召唤等爆款手游实现充分商业化后，难以避免出现营收放缓的情况。因此，如何开发更高品质的手游来吸引新用户付费是Sea需要思考的问题。虽然目前Sea在绝大部分国家确实占据了领先优势，但来自竞争对手的压力依然不容小觑。Lazada也覆盖了主要的东南亚国家和地区，而Tokopedia更专注于印度尼西亚这个国家。此外，Sea对于发展电商和金融服务业务都有不小的投入。对于这两部分业务，开展营销工作是必不可少的，但也使得Sea一直未摆脱亏损的困境。若要实现稳定盈利，达成规模效应后进行控费是其中重要的一环。未来Sea发展如何，美股研究社将会持续关注。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395098912,"gmtCreate":1607529686636,"gmtModify":1703848541419,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395098912","repostId":"392406407","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":392406407,"gmtCreate":1607500659101,"gmtModify":1703848259993,"author":{"id":"3499642540046495","authorId":"3499642540046495","name":"房东经济学","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfaddbb1342d4bbb2d3ec62de517927","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"今年最火的一位女股神","htmlText":"本文来自公众号：房东看世界今天我们聊聊一位最近很火的女股神，她的名字叫Catherine Wood，她是ARK Invest的CEO和基金经理人。如果要问今年美国市场上谁最风光，那肯定有她和她公司ARK的份，Wood现在已经成为无数投资者眼中的女神。Catherine Wood为什么她能火？我们看一下她管理的产品表现就知道了。ARKK vs 纳斯达克100 vs 标普500 2014年底至今各自累计涨幅上面这张图中紫色线为她管理的一只规模最大的ARKK与纳斯达克100（黑色线）以及标普500（黑色）的对比，从2014下半年登场至今，ARKK累计上涨了接近500%，碾压基准标普500，甚至也让作为科技指数之王的纳斯达克100相形见绌。ARKK连续三年都跑赢了基准，并且和其他ARK旗下的四个主动基金一同在今年迎来了大爆发。有人把她说成是“女版巴菲特”，但她的风格和巴菲特完全不一样，巴菲特喜欢投资现金流稳定的成熟公司、而且更倾向于传统行业，对科技股涉猎相对较少；Wood专做科技股，而且都是在足够早的时间就瞄准那些有潜力的科技公司。在她的投资理念中，最重要的一个关键词就是创新。Wood出生于1956年，换句话说她现在已经是个64岁的大妈了，但是她对于创新和新经济的理解远超绝大多数后辈，她抓住了特斯拉、Square、Zoom甚至是比特币的机会。除了天赋以外，和她的个人经历也分不开。她毕业于南加州大学金融经济学专业，1977年开始在Capital Research公司任助理经济师，之后她在1980年转职Jennison Associates任首席经济师。1998年她合伙成立对冲基金Tupelo Capital并任投资组合经理主理该基金的宏观战略。2001年，她转到联博资产管理任投资长，负责管理基金达50亿美元的投资组合。2013年，她从联博辞职创业，于2014年1月成立ARK Inve","listText":"本文来自公众号：房东看世界今天我们聊聊一位最近很火的女股神，她的名字叫Catherine Wood，她是ARK Invest的CEO和基金经理人。如果要问今年美国市场上谁最风光，那肯定有她和她公司ARK的份，Wood现在已经成为无数投资者眼中的女神。Catherine Wood为什么她能火？我们看一下她管理的产品表现就知道了。ARKK vs 纳斯达克100 vs 标普500 2014年底至今各自累计涨幅上面这张图中紫色线为她管理的一只规模最大的ARKK与纳斯达克100（黑色线）以及标普500（黑色）的对比，从2014下半年登场至今，ARKK累计上涨了接近500%，碾压基准标普500，甚至也让作为科技指数之王的纳斯达克100相形见绌。ARKK连续三年都跑赢了基准，并且和其他ARK旗下的四个主动基金一同在今年迎来了大爆发。有人把她说成是“女版巴菲特”，但她的风格和巴菲特完全不一样，巴菲特喜欢投资现金流稳定的成熟公司、而且更倾向于传统行业，对科技股涉猎相对较少；Wood专做科技股，而且都是在足够早的时间就瞄准那些有潜力的科技公司。在她的投资理念中，最重要的一个关键词就是创新。Wood出生于1956年，换句话说她现在已经是个64岁的大妈了，但是她对于创新和新经济的理解远超绝大多数后辈，她抓住了特斯拉、Square、Zoom甚至是比特币的机会。除了天赋以外，和她的个人经历也分不开。她毕业于南加州大学金融经济学专业，1977年开始在Capital Research公司任助理经济师，之后她在1980年转职Jennison Associates任首席经济师。1998年她合伙成立对冲基金Tupelo Capital并任投资组合经理主理该基金的宏观战略。2001年，她转到联博资产管理任投资长，负责管理基金达50亿美元的投资组合。2013年，她从联博辞职创业，于2014年1月成立ARK Inve","text":"本文来自公众号：房东看世界今天我们聊聊一位最近很火的女股神，她的名字叫Catherine Wood，她是ARK Invest的CEO和基金经理人。如果要问今年美国市场上谁最风光，那肯定有她和她公司ARK的份，Wood现在已经成为无数投资者眼中的女神。Catherine Wood为什么她能火？我们看一下她管理的产品表现就知道了。ARKK vs 纳斯达克100 vs 标普500 2014年底至今各自累计涨幅上面这张图中紫色线为她管理的一只规模最大的ARKK与纳斯达克100（黑色线）以及标普500（黑色）的对比，从2014下半年登场至今，ARKK累计上涨了接近500%，碾压基准标普500，甚至也让作为科技指数之王的纳斯达克100相形见绌。ARKK连续三年都跑赢了基准，并且和其他ARK旗下的四个主动基金一同在今年迎来了大爆发。有人把她说成是“女版巴菲特”，但她的风格和巴菲特完全不一样，巴菲特喜欢投资现金流稳定的成熟公司、而且更倾向于传统行业，对科技股涉猎相对较少；Wood专做科技股，而且都是在足够早的时间就瞄准那些有潜力的科技公司。在她的投资理念中，最重要的一个关键词就是创新。Wood出生于1956年，换句话说她现在已经是个64岁的大妈了，但是她对于创新和新经济的理解远超绝大多数后辈，她抓住了特斯拉、Square、Zoom甚至是比特币的机会。除了天赋以外，和她的个人经历也分不开。她毕业于南加州大学金融经济学专业，1977年开始在Capital Research公司任助理经济师，之后她在1980年转职Jennison Associates任首席经济师。1998年她合伙成立对冲基金Tupelo Capital并任投资组合经理主理该基金的宏观战略。2001年，她转到联博资产管理任投资长，负责管理基金达50亿美元的投资组合。2013年，她从联博辞职创业，于2014年1月成立ARK Inve","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97bb7924b5cdfce996be47d988193e0f","width":"660","height":"371"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03fc602704168bd154f831a312d7d3d","width":"688","height":"305"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48887879ceb2887aff33fade3bc425b","width":"688","height":"283"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392406407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392232656,"gmtCreate":1607443826375,"gmtModify":1703848004079,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392232656","repostId":"1138321330","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1138321330","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1607306859,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138321330?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-07 10:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"非农就业远低预期，为何美股屡创新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138321330","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"摘要\n1、非农就业持续放缓，永久失业持续增加。美国11月新增非农就业人数仅24.5万人，远不及预期，为5月复工以来最小增幅，已经连续5个月放缓。永久失业人数再度上升，比重超过五成，长期失业人数同样在上","content":"<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p><b>1、非农就业持续放缓，永久失业持续增加。</b>美国11月新增非农就业人数仅24.5万人，远不及预期，为5月复工以来最小增幅，已经连续5个月放缓。永久失业人数再度上升，比重超过五成，长期失业人数同样在上升;美国11月广义失业率仍高达12%，几乎与上月持平。</p>\n<p><b>2、服务业贡献最大，就业结构分化严重。</b>自复工以来，服务业一直是就业的主要贡献，不过政府就业已经连续3个月负增，拖累严重。此外，就业分化依然严重，多数失业者为低薪工作者，高收入群体就业率已经恢复正常，低收入群体依然大幅下滑。</p>\n<p><b>3、第三波疫情加重，货币将持续超发。</b>美国近期依然不断加重，连续4日每日新增病例超过20万人，或与感恩季活动有关。受疫情冲击，美国经济与就业恢复将放缓，随着美国选举基本尘埃落定，财政刺激方案或很快落地，货币将继续超发。</p>\n<p><b>4、美股三大指数均创历史新高的三大原因。</b>截止12月4日，美股三大指数均创历史新高，主要与美联储大放水、美股行业结构以及美股优胜劣汰体制有关；此外，与美国经济分化程度高，美股短期激励力度大、静态估值可能被高估也有较大关系。</p>\n<p><b>1、非农就业持续放缓，永久失业持续增加</b></p>\n<p><b>美国非农就业持续放缓。</b>11月美国新增非农就业人数24.5万人，远不及市场预期的46.9万人，<b>为5月复工以来最小增幅</b>，10月也下修为61.0万人。尽管非农就业仍在正增长，但这主要得益于经济活动恢复下临时性失业的持续减少，不过，我们发现本月临时性失业减少幅度首次不足百万，新增就业人数也已经连续5个月放缓，且本月新增人数远不及前6个月。</p>\n<p><b>此外，</b>本月就业报告数据仅收集前两周情况，而美国疫情防控措施则主要从11月下旬开始再度加强，<b>12月或明年1月美国非农就业或再现负增长。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f18ea6650aa07501d2d963ebaab8ec\" tg-width=\"384\" tg-height=\"263\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67687eea75b9f5d0e60465007fedaceb\" tg-width=\"384\" tg-height=\"261\"></p>\n<p><b>永久性失业持续增加，广义失业率仍高。</b>尽管11月失业率下滑至6.7%，但仅下滑0.2个百分点，为复工以来最低幅度，或与本月劳动参与率下滑有较大关系。需要强调的是永久性失业再度上升至374.3万人，为13年5月以来新高，占总失业人数的比重也再度超过5成。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d059794425a0592f7ed1ab20ff31ea89\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"301\"></p>\n<p><b>此外，</b>长期失业人数（失业27周或更长时间）增加了38.5万至394.1万，创下2013年底以来的最高水平。且本月有工作意愿的非劳动力人数再度增加44.8万人至713.6万人，这些人因为没有持续4周积极寻找工作，不被计入失业当中，<b>通过更宽泛失业率口径来看，11月U6失业率仍高达12.0%，几乎与上月持平。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e14ce38a6d4e37c6c899529c8079e2\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"301\"></p>\n<p><b>2、服务业贡献最大，就业结构分化严重</b></p>\n<p><b>服务就业仍是主要贡献。</b>11月美国新增非农就业增长仍主要来自于服务业，服务业就业增长了28.9万人，占全部就业增长的118%；商品生产就业增长了5.5万人，贡献了22%；政府就业则减少了9.9万人，拖累了40%，主因是流失了9.3万的临时人口普查员，<b>且政府就业已经连续三月负增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>具体来看，商品生产中，</b>49%的就业增长来自建筑业（2.7万人），制造业也贡献了49%（2.7万人），主要来自于汽车零部件、家具等相关产品就业人数的增加；<b>服务生产中，运输仓储业成为贡献最大的行业</b>，新增了14.5万人，贡献了50%，主要体现在快递员（8.2万人）、仓储（3.7万人）以及卡车运输（1.3万人），或与房地产的高景气以及圣诞节、“黑五”等活动有关；其次贡献较高的为专业和商业服务（6.0万人）以及医疗保健和社会救助（6.0万人），均贡献21%；<b>而休闲和酒店业仅贡献10%，零售业则再度转负（-3.5万人），拖累12%，其中百货商店裁员2.1万人，体现为疫情的第三波冲击。</b></p>\n<p><b>就业结构分化严重。</b>11月美国私人非农企业员工平均时薪环比小幅增长0.3%，较上月上升0.2个百分点；同比为4.4%，较上月持平。<b>但薪资同比增速仍高，其背后反映的仍是失业的结构失衡，多数失业者为低薪工作者</b>，根据美国经济跟踪数据，当前最高收入群体就业率较年初已经回升0.2%，而最低收入群体仍下滑20.3%。</p>\n<p><b>3、第三波疫情加重，货币将继续超发</b></p>\n<p><b>近期美国疫情再度失控。</b>近一周平均每日新增病例约20万人，尤其是12月2日开始连续4天每日新增病例超过20万人，不断创历史纪录。近期新冠确诊病例大幅上升，或与美国感恩节季活动有关，据TSA公布数据，11月16日至11月22日TSA筛查的全国旅客累计将超过610万人，创疫情爆发以来单周出行人数的最高纪录。</p>\n<p><b>美国经济复苏将放缓。</b>尽管疫苗消息不断袭来，但短期仍存在较大不确定性，在第三波疫情冲击下，美国经济和就业的恢复将放缓。<b>从生产来看，</b>生产的恢复一直慢于消费，且近期恢复所有回落，截止11月28日，美国粗钢产量同比跌幅再度扩大至-14.4%；最近几周，美国发电量同比也持续负增。<b>从需求来看，</b>截止11月29日，美国零售消费活动较基期仍下滑23%，必需消费活动也较基期下滑15%。</p>\n<p><b>财政刺激方案将很快落地，货币将继续超发。</b>往前看，美国选举基本尘埃落定，考虑到疫情仍在加剧，新的财政刺激方案或很快推出；不过较之前的规模将大打折扣，根据最新消息，众议院议长佩洛西（民主党）表示，最近的9080亿美元两党提案“应该被用作立即进行两党，两院谈判的基础”。</p>\n<p><b>此外，为辅助经济恢复，美联储将继续维持货币宽松，购买资产，继续超发货币。</b>鲍威尔在11月发布会中也强调，并未考虑缩减资产购买的力度，货币政策弹药仍未用尽，如果必要可能会考虑新的工具以及改变资产购买的期限、组合以及规模等。</p>\n<p><b>4、美股三大指数均创历史新高的三大原因</b></p>\n<p><b>美股创历史新高。</b>据12月4日最新收盘数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数再度突破3万点，创历史新高；标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数也创下历史新高。在美国疫情如此严重，经济如此差的背景下，美国股市为何屡创新高呢？</p>\n<p><b>首先，这很大程度上与美联储持续大放水有较大关系。</b>例如，美国二季度居民可支配收入增长11%，消费增速却下降10%；三季度GDP同比仍下滑2.9%，而三季度居民可支配收入仍增长8.2%，居民支出仍下滑了2.2%。</p>\n<p><b>其次，这次疫情对传统周期性行业和服务业的影响比较大，但对新兴产业的影响相对较小。</b>而美国的三大成分股指数中，新兴产业的占比较高。如标普500指数中，新兴技术行业和通信行业的市值占比相加就达到41%，这两个行业受疫情影响也相对较小。</p>\n<p><b>相比之下，我国的周期性行业和传统行业的市值占比较大</b>，在疫情和经济增速下行影响下，从全样本统计的上证综指看，股指表现就逊色不少。尽管沪深300指数表现也不错，但投资者还是习惯于用上证综指来衡量市场冷暖。</p>\n<p><b>第三，美国股市的优胜劣汰机制远好于国内股市。2016年以来A股总共有1269只新股上市，仅有34只退市。</b>绩差股的股价无法完全反映其退市预期，造成股价和业绩不匹配，拉高了A股市场的估值。在纳斯达克市场上，上市公司退市是一种十分普遍和正常的市场行为。据统计，纳斯达克市场80%左右的股票在上市后的第3年便因公司破产或被购并而退市。<b>2016年以来，纳斯达克IPO上市764家公司，退市714家，退市数量与IPO数量相当。</b>优胜略汰的市场机制下，股价和业绩的匹配度更加合理，就不容易出现过高的估值。2016年来纳斯达克成分股的PE中位数保持在28倍附近，同期A股PE中位数则在44倍附近。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c3233a05e6d5ee157bf23c220fcef\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"122\"></p>\n<p><b>第四，美国经济的分化程度超过中国，表现为大公司的市值占比很高，</b>如美国股市中，500亿美元市值以上的公司，其市值占股市总市值比重超过70%，尤其是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、脸书、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、奈飞、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等互联网或高科技行业的市值富可敌国。这些上市公司在疫情之下表现更强，从而进一步拉高了指数。</p>\n<p>从今年前三季度看，纳斯达克100指数中的涨幅前20只股票贡献了97%的指数涨幅。<b>这从某种程度上也反映了美国成分股指数与美国股市存在“脱钩”、美国经济与美国资本市场也存在“脱钩”这样一种双脱钩现象。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e100ff889a4f297acc22377322e55530\" tg-width=\"504\" tg-height=\"305\"></p>\n<p><b>第五，美股短期激励力度大，静态估值可能被高估。</b>在理性和有效的市场中，静态估值反映未来的预期，即假如预期未来上市公司的盈利上升空间大，则市场会给予当前更高的静态估值，反之则给予更低的静态估值。美股上市公司短期激励力度大，华尔街资本和经营层的职业经理人都有极大的动力做高当期的盈利，从而使得静态估值看起来比较低。</p>\n<p>我们通过统计美国标普500指数成分股中市值最大的60家公司的资产负债率、过去10年回购股数占比、研发支出占营收的比例，<b>可以发现职业经理人掌控的公司表现出更高的负债率和更大的回购力度，而研发支出占比却明显较低。</b>可见，职业经理人更加追求公司的短期业绩和股价表现。随着美股上市公司的创始人及其继任者陆续退出（美股很多科技公司都是上世纪八九十年代成立的），职业经理人接管，美股急功近利的现象将会更加明显。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f4cc6ad3fafdec5e888a3aa3b31d94\" tg-width=\"384\" tg-height=\"305\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268152e90eea91f493eb049a34f398b2\" tg-width=\"383\" tg-height=\"305\"></p>\n<p>风险提示：疫情扩散，政策变动，贸易问题，全球经济降温。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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}\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n非农就业远低预期，为何美股屡创新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">李迅雷金融与投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-12-07 10:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>摘要</b></p>\n<p><b>1、非农就业持续放缓，永久失业持续增加。</b>美国11月新增非农就业人数仅24.5万人，远不及预期，为5月复工以来最小增幅，已经连续5个月放缓。永久失业人数再度上升，比重超过五成，长期失业人数同样在上升;美国11月广义失业率仍高达12%，几乎与上月持平。</p>\n<p><b>2、服务业贡献最大，就业结构分化严重。</b>自复工以来，服务业一直是就业的主要贡献，不过政府就业已经连续3个月负增，拖累严重。此外，就业分化依然严重，多数失业者为低薪工作者，高收入群体就业率已经恢复正常，低收入群体依然大幅下滑。</p>\n<p><b>3、第三波疫情加重，货币将持续超发。</b>美国近期依然不断加重，连续4日每日新增病例超过20万人，或与感恩季活动有关。受疫情冲击，美国经济与就业恢复将放缓，随着美国选举基本尘埃落定，财政刺激方案或很快落地，货币将继续超发。</p>\n<p><b>4、美股三大指数均创历史新高的三大原因。</b>截止12月4日，美股三大指数均创历史新高，主要与美联储大放水、美股行业结构以及美股优胜劣汰体制有关；此外，与美国经济分化程度高，美股短期激励力度大、静态估值可能被高估也有较大关系。</p>\n<p><b>1、非农就业持续放缓，永久失业持续增加</b></p>\n<p><b>美国非农就业持续放缓。</b>11月美国新增非农就业人数24.5万人，远不及市场预期的46.9万人，<b>为5月复工以来最小增幅</b>，10月也下修为61.0万人。尽管非农就业仍在正增长，但这主要得益于经济活动恢复下临时性失业的持续减少，不过，我们发现本月临时性失业减少幅度首次不足百万，新增就业人数也已经连续5个月放缓，且本月新增人数远不及前6个月。</p>\n<p><b>此外，</b>本月就业报告数据仅收集前两周情况，而美国疫情防控措施则主要从11月下旬开始再度加强，<b>12月或明年1月美国非农就业或再现负增长。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f18ea6650aa07501d2d963ebaab8ec\" tg-width=\"384\" tg-height=\"263\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67687eea75b9f5d0e60465007fedaceb\" tg-width=\"384\" tg-height=\"261\"></p>\n<p><b>永久性失业持续增加，广义失业率仍高。</b>尽管11月失业率下滑至6.7%，但仅下滑0.2个百分点，为复工以来最低幅度，或与本月劳动参与率下滑有较大关系。需要强调的是永久性失业再度上升至374.3万人，为13年5月以来新高，占总失业人数的比重也再度超过5成。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d059794425a0592f7ed1ab20ff31ea89\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"301\"></p>\n<p><b>此外，</b>长期失业人数（失业27周或更长时间）增加了38.5万至394.1万，创下2013年底以来的最高水平。且本月有工作意愿的非劳动力人数再度增加44.8万人至713.6万人，这些人因为没有持续4周积极寻找工作，不被计入失业当中，<b>通过更宽泛失业率口径来看，11月U6失业率仍高达12.0%，几乎与上月持平。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e14ce38a6d4e37c6c899529c8079e2\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"301\"></p>\n<p><b>2、服务业贡献最大，就业结构分化严重</b></p>\n<p><b>服务就业仍是主要贡献。</b>11月美国新增非农就业增长仍主要来自于服务业，服务业就业增长了28.9万人，占全部就业增长的118%；商品生产就业增长了5.5万人，贡献了22%；政府就业则减少了9.9万人，拖累了40%，主因是流失了9.3万的临时人口普查员，<b>且政府就业已经连续三月负增长。</b></p>\n<p><b>具体来看，商品生产中，</b>49%的就业增长来自建筑业（2.7万人），制造业也贡献了49%（2.7万人），主要来自于汽车零部件、家具等相关产品就业人数的增加；<b>服务生产中，运输仓储业成为贡献最大的行业</b>，新增了14.5万人，贡献了50%，主要体现在快递员（8.2万人）、仓储（3.7万人）以及卡车运输（1.3万人），或与房地产的高景气以及圣诞节、“黑五”等活动有关；其次贡献较高的为专业和商业服务（6.0万人）以及医疗保健和社会救助（6.0万人），均贡献21%；<b>而休闲和酒店业仅贡献10%，零售业则再度转负（-3.5万人），拖累12%，其中百货商店裁员2.1万人，体现为疫情的第三波冲击。</b></p>\n<p><b>就业结构分化严重。</b>11月美国私人非农企业员工平均时薪环比小幅增长0.3%，较上月上升0.2个百分点；同比为4.4%，较上月持平。<b>但薪资同比增速仍高，其背后反映的仍是失业的结构失衡，多数失业者为低薪工作者</b>，根据美国经济跟踪数据，当前最高收入群体就业率较年初已经回升0.2%，而最低收入群体仍下滑20.3%。</p>\n<p><b>3、第三波疫情加重，货币将继续超发</b></p>\n<p><b>近期美国疫情再度失控。</b>近一周平均每日新增病例约20万人，尤其是12月2日开始连续4天每日新增病例超过20万人，不断创历史纪录。近期新冠确诊病例大幅上升，或与美国感恩节季活动有关，据TSA公布数据，11月16日至11月22日TSA筛查的全国旅客累计将超过610万人，创疫情爆发以来单周出行人数的最高纪录。</p>\n<p><b>美国经济复苏将放缓。</b>尽管疫苗消息不断袭来，但短期仍存在较大不确定性，在第三波疫情冲击下，美国经济和就业的恢复将放缓。<b>从生产来看，</b>生产的恢复一直慢于消费，且近期恢复所有回落，截止11月28日，美国粗钢产量同比跌幅再度扩大至-14.4%；最近几周，美国发电量同比也持续负增。<b>从需求来看，</b>截止11月29日，美国零售消费活动较基期仍下滑23%，必需消费活动也较基期下滑15%。</p>\n<p><b>财政刺激方案将很快落地，货币将继续超发。</b>往前看，美国选举基本尘埃落定，考虑到疫情仍在加剧，新的财政刺激方案或很快推出；不过较之前的规模将大打折扣，根据最新消息，众议院议长佩洛西（民主党）表示，最近的9080亿美元两党提案“应该被用作立即进行两党，两院谈判的基础”。</p>\n<p><b>此外，为辅助经济恢复，美联储将继续维持货币宽松，购买资产，继续超发货币。</b>鲍威尔在11月发布会中也强调，并未考虑缩减资产购买的力度，货币政策弹药仍未用尽，如果必要可能会考虑新的工具以及改变资产购买的期限、组合以及规模等。</p>\n<p><b>4、美股三大指数均创历史新高的三大原因</b></p>\n<p><b>美股创历史新高。</b>据12月4日最新收盘数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数再度突破3万点，创历史新高；标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数也创下历史新高。在美国疫情如此严重，经济如此差的背景下，美国股市为何屡创新高呢？</p>\n<p><b>首先，这很大程度上与美联储持续大放水有较大关系。</b>例如，美国二季度居民可支配收入增长11%，消费增速却下降10%；三季度GDP同比仍下滑2.9%，而三季度居民可支配收入仍增长8.2%，居民支出仍下滑了2.2%。</p>\n<p><b>其次，这次疫情对传统周期性行业和服务业的影响比较大，但对新兴产业的影响相对较小。</b>而美国的三大成分股指数中，新兴产业的占比较高。如标普500指数中，新兴技术行业和通信行业的市值占比相加就达到41%，这两个行业受疫情影响也相对较小。</p>\n<p><b>相比之下，我国的周期性行业和传统行业的市值占比较大</b>，在疫情和经济增速下行影响下，从全样本统计的上证综指看，股指表现就逊色不少。尽管沪深300指数表现也不错，但投资者还是习惯于用上证综指来衡量市场冷暖。</p>\n<p><b>第三，美国股市的优胜劣汰机制远好于国内股市。2016年以来A股总共有1269只新股上市，仅有34只退市。</b>绩差股的股价无法完全反映其退市预期，造成股价和业绩不匹配，拉高了A股市场的估值。在纳斯达克市场上，上市公司退市是一种十分普遍和正常的市场行为。据统计，纳斯达克市场80%左右的股票在上市后的第3年便因公司破产或被购并而退市。<b>2016年以来，纳斯达克IPO上市764家公司，退市714家，退市数量与IPO数量相当。</b>优胜略汰的市场机制下，股价和业绩的匹配度更加合理，就不容易出现过高的估值。2016年来纳斯达克成分股的PE中位数保持在28倍附近，同期A股PE中位数则在44倍附近。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/968c3233a05e6d5ee157bf23c220fcef\" tg-width=\"503\" tg-height=\"122\"></p>\n<p><b>第四，美国经济的分化程度超过中国，表现为大公司的市值占比很高，</b>如美国股市中，500亿美元市值以上的公司，其市值占股市总市值比重超过70%，尤其是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、脸书、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、奈飞、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等互联网或高科技行业的市值富可敌国。这些上市公司在疫情之下表现更强，从而进一步拉高了指数。</p>\n<p>从今年前三季度看，纳斯达克100指数中的涨幅前20只股票贡献了97%的指数涨幅。<b>这从某种程度上也反映了美国成分股指数与美国股市存在“脱钩”、美国经济与美国资本市场也存在“脱钩”这样一种双脱钩现象。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e100ff889a4f297acc22377322e55530\" tg-width=\"504\" tg-height=\"305\"></p>\n<p><b>第五，美股短期激励力度大，静态估值可能被高估。</b>在理性和有效的市场中，静态估值反映未来的预期，即假如预期未来上市公司的盈利上升空间大，则市场会给予当前更高的静态估值，反之则给予更低的静态估值。美股上市公司短期激励力度大，华尔街资本和经营层的职业经理人都有极大的动力做高当期的盈利，从而使得静态估值看起来比较低。</p>\n<p>我们通过统计美国标普500指数成分股中市值最大的60家公司的资产负债率、过去10年回购股数占比、研发支出占营收的比例，<b>可以发现职业经理人掌控的公司表现出更高的负债率和更大的回购力度，而研发支出占比却明显较低。</b>可见，职业经理人更加追求公司的短期业绩和股价表现。随着美股上市公司的创始人及其继任者陆续退出（美股很多科技公司都是上世纪八九十年代成立的），职业经理人接管，美股急功近利的现象将会更加明显。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f4cc6ad3fafdec5e888a3aa3b31d94\" tg-width=\"384\" tg-height=\"305\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/268152e90eea91f493eb049a34f398b2\" tg-width=\"383\" tg-height=\"305\"></p>\n<p>风险提示：疫情扩散，政策变动，贸易问题，全球经济降温。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138321330","content_text":"摘要\n1、非农就业持续放缓，永久失业持续增加。美国11月新增非农就业人数仅24.5万人，远不及预期，为5月复工以来最小增幅，已经连续5个月放缓。永久失业人数再度上升，比重超过五成，长期失业人数同样在上升;美国11月广义失业率仍高达12%，几乎与上月持平。\n2、服务业贡献最大，就业结构分化严重。自复工以来，服务业一直是就业的主要贡献，不过政府就业已经连续3个月负增，拖累严重。此外，就业分化依然严重，多数失业者为低薪工作者，高收入群体就业率已经恢复正常，低收入群体依然大幅下滑。\n3、第三波疫情加重，货币将持续超发。美国近期依然不断加重，连续4日每日新增病例超过20万人，或与感恩季活动有关。受疫情冲击，美国经济与就业恢复将放缓，随着美国选举基本尘埃落定，财政刺激方案或很快落地，货币将继续超发。\n4、美股三大指数均创历史新高的三大原因。截止12月4日，美股三大指数均创历史新高，主要与美联储大放水、美股行业结构以及美股优胜劣汰体制有关；此外，与美国经济分化程度高，美股短期激励力度大、静态估值可能被高估也有较大关系。\n1、非农就业持续放缓，永久失业持续增加\n美国非农就业持续放缓。11月美国新增非农就业人数24.5万人，远不及市场预期的46.9万人，为5月复工以来最小增幅，10月也下修为61.0万人。尽管非农就业仍在正增长，但这主要得益于经济活动恢复下临时性失业的持续减少，不过，我们发现本月临时性失业减少幅度首次不足百万，新增就业人数也已经连续5个月放缓，且本月新增人数远不及前6个月。\n此外，本月就业报告数据仅收集前两周情况，而美国疫情防控措施则主要从11月下旬开始再度加强，12月或明年1月美国非农就业或再现负增长。\n\n永久性失业持续增加，广义失业率仍高。尽管11月失业率下滑至6.7%，但仅下滑0.2个百分点，为复工以来最低幅度，或与本月劳动参与率下滑有较大关系。需要强调的是永久性失业再度上升至374.3万人，为13年5月以来新高，占总失业人数的比重也再度超过5成。\n\n此外，长期失业人数（失业27周或更长时间）增加了38.5万至394.1万，创下2013年底以来的最高水平。且本月有工作意愿的非劳动力人数再度增加44.8万人至713.6万人，这些人因为没有持续4周积极寻找工作，不被计入失业当中，通过更宽泛失业率口径来看，11月U6失业率仍高达12.0%，几乎与上月持平。\n\n2、服务业贡献最大，就业结构分化严重\n服务就业仍是主要贡献。11月美国新增非农就业增长仍主要来自于服务业，服务业就业增长了28.9万人，占全部就业增长的118%；商品生产就业增长了5.5万人，贡献了22%；政府就业则减少了9.9万人，拖累了40%，主因是流失了9.3万的临时人口普查员，且政府就业已经连续三月负增长。\n具体来看，商品生产中，49%的就业增长来自建筑业（2.7万人），制造业也贡献了49%（2.7万人），主要来自于汽车零部件、家具等相关产品就业人数的增加；服务生产中，运输仓储业成为贡献最大的行业，新增了14.5万人，贡献了50%，主要体现在快递员（8.2万人）、仓储（3.7万人）以及卡车运输（1.3万人），或与房地产的高景气以及圣诞节、“黑五”等活动有关；其次贡献较高的为专业和商业服务（6.0万人）以及医疗保健和社会救助（6.0万人），均贡献21%；而休闲和酒店业仅贡献10%，零售业则再度转负（-3.5万人），拖累12%，其中百货商店裁员2.1万人，体现为疫情的第三波冲击。\n就业结构分化严重。11月美国私人非农企业员工平均时薪环比小幅增长0.3%，较上月上升0.2个百分点；同比为4.4%，较上月持平。但薪资同比增速仍高，其背后反映的仍是失业的结构失衡，多数失业者为低薪工作者，根据美国经济跟踪数据，当前最高收入群体就业率较年初已经回升0.2%，而最低收入群体仍下滑20.3%。\n3、第三波疫情加重，货币将继续超发\n近期美国疫情再度失控。近一周平均每日新增病例约20万人，尤其是12月2日开始连续4天每日新增病例超过20万人，不断创历史纪录。近期新冠确诊病例大幅上升，或与美国感恩节季活动有关，据TSA公布数据，11月16日至11月22日TSA筛查的全国旅客累计将超过610万人，创疫情爆发以来单周出行人数的最高纪录。\n美国经济复苏将放缓。尽管疫苗消息不断袭来，但短期仍存在较大不确定性，在第三波疫情冲击下，美国经济和就业的恢复将放缓。从生产来看，生产的恢复一直慢于消费，且近期恢复所有回落，截止11月28日，美国粗钢产量同比跌幅再度扩大至-14.4%；最近几周，美国发电量同比也持续负增。从需求来看，截止11月29日，美国零售消费活动较基期仍下滑23%，必需消费活动也较基期下滑15%。\n财政刺激方案将很快落地，货币将继续超发。往前看，美国选举基本尘埃落定，考虑到疫情仍在加剧，新的财政刺激方案或很快推出；不过较之前的规模将大打折扣，根据最新消息，众议院议长佩洛西（民主党）表示，最近的9080亿美元两党提案“应该被用作立即进行两党，两院谈判的基础”。\n此外，为辅助经济恢复，美联储将继续维持货币宽松，购买资产，继续超发货币。鲍威尔在11月发布会中也强调，并未考虑缩减资产购买的力度，货币政策弹药仍未用尽，如果必要可能会考虑新的工具以及改变资产购买的期限、组合以及规模等。\n4、美股三大指数均创历史新高的三大原因\n美股创历史新高。据12月4日最新收盘数据显示，道琼斯工业平均指数再度突破3万点，创历史新高；标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数也创下历史新高。在美国疫情如此严重，经济如此差的背景下，美国股市为何屡创新高呢？\n首先，这很大程度上与美联储持续大放水有较大关系。例如，美国二季度居民可支配收入增长11%，消费增速却下降10%；三季度GDP同比仍下滑2.9%，而三季度居民可支配收入仍增长8.2%，居民支出仍下滑了2.2%。\n其次，这次疫情对传统周期性行业和服务业的影响比较大，但对新兴产业的影响相对较小。而美国的三大成分股指数中，新兴产业的占比较高。如标普500指数中，新兴技术行业和通信行业的市值占比相加就达到41%，这两个行业受疫情影响也相对较小。\n相比之下，我国的周期性行业和传统行业的市值占比较大，在疫情和经济增速下行影响下，从全样本统计的上证综指看，股指表现就逊色不少。尽管沪深300指数表现也不错，但投资者还是习惯于用上证综指来衡量市场冷暖。\n第三，美国股市的优胜劣汰机制远好于国内股市。2016年以来A股总共有1269只新股上市，仅有34只退市。绩差股的股价无法完全反映其退市预期，造成股价和业绩不匹配，拉高了A股市场的估值。在纳斯达克市场上，上市公司退市是一种十分普遍和正常的市场行为。据统计，纳斯达克市场80%左右的股票在上市后的第3年便因公司破产或被购并而退市。2016年以来，纳斯达克IPO上市764家公司，退市714家，退市数量与IPO数量相当。优胜略汰的市场机制下，股价和业绩的匹配度更加合理，就不容易出现过高的估值。2016年来纳斯达克成分股的PE中位数保持在28倍附近，同期A股PE中位数则在44倍附近。\n\n第四，美国经济的分化程度超过中国，表现为大公司的市值占比很高，如美国股市中，500亿美元市值以上的公司，其市值占股市总市值比重超过70%，尤其是苹果、谷歌、脸书、亚马逊、微软、奈飞、特斯拉等互联网或高科技行业的市值富可敌国。这些上市公司在疫情之下表现更强，从而进一步拉高了指数。\n从今年前三季度看，纳斯达克100指数中的涨幅前20只股票贡献了97%的指数涨幅。这从某种程度上也反映了美国成分股指数与美国股市存在“脱钩”、美国经济与美国资本市场也存在“脱钩”这样一种双脱钩现象。\n\n第五，美股短期激励力度大，静态估值可能被高估。在理性和有效的市场中，静态估值反映未来的预期，即假如预期未来上市公司的盈利上升空间大，则市场会给予当前更高的静态估值，反之则给予更低的静态估值。美股上市公司短期激励力度大，华尔街资本和经营层的职业经理人都有极大的动力做高当期的盈利，从而使得静态估值看起来比较低。\n我们通过统计美国标普500指数成分股中市值最大的60家公司的资产负债率、过去10年回购股数占比、研发支出占营收的比例，可以发现职业经理人掌控的公司表现出更高的负债率和更大的回购力度，而研发支出占比却明显较低。可见，职业经理人更加追求公司的短期业绩和股价表现。随着美股上市公司的创始人及其继任者陆续退出（美股很多科技公司都是上世纪八九十年代成立的），职业经理人接管，美股急功近利的现象将会更加明显。\n\n风险提示：疫情扩散，政策变动，贸易问题，全球经济降温。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396772120,"gmtCreate":1607331879160,"gmtModify":1703847116092,"author":{"id":"3029577259623","authorId":"3029577259623","name":"huanxi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396772120","repostId":"2088347723","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2088347723","pubTimestamp":1606855165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2088347723?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-02 04:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"多只美股将迎30-40％暴跌 大量企业董事已提前抛售离场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2088347723","media":"金融界网站 ","summary":"在新冠肺炎疫苗获得批准的希望提振下，美国股市似乎已准备好在12月的第一个交易日迎来开门红。面对一场致命的流行病，今年美股的复苏令人瞩目，因此外界预期这最后一个自然月也将看到股市的强劲反弹。　　但True Contrarian首席执行官史蒂文乔恩卡普兰警告称，“相当严重的”股价下跌可能已经开始了，或者距离我们只有一周左右的时间。","content":"<html><body><div><p>　　在新冠肺炎疫苗获得批准的希望提振下，美国股市似乎已准备好在12月的第一个交易日迎来开门红。面对一场致命的流行病，今年美股的复苏令人瞩目，因此外界预期这最后一个自然月也将看到股市的强劲反弹。</p>\n<p>　　但True Contrarian首席执行官史蒂文・乔恩・卡普兰（Steven Jon Kaplan）警告称，“相当严重的”股价下跌可能已经开始了，或者距离我们只有一周左右的时间。他表示，如果投资者知道往哪里看，就会有很多信号表明这一点。</p>\n<p>　　卡普兰在采访和电子邮件中对财经媒体表示：“我最注意到的现象是投资者涌入股市，并创下资金流入纪录，而内部人士却从未像2020年11月那样展开大举抛售。”</p>\n<p>　　他指出，通过J3<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/III\">信息服务</a>集团（J3 Information Services Group，一家追踪企业董事股票买卖情况的网站）的数据，所谓的内部人士正在“全面密集的抛售（股票）”。这意味着“最有见识的投资者意识到……（股市）即将大幅下跌，他们正在通过降低风险来为此做准备。”</p>\n<p>　　卡普兰说“很多股票都会下跌30%或40%”，他认为如今我们正处于熊市，因此建议看看2000到2003年间的美股回调，看看未来会发生什么。</p>\n<p>　　他说：“我们还有TLT（美国国债20以上年ETF，是目前美国市场中最受欢迎的美国长期国债ETF）、美元指数和波动率指数（VIX）等避险资产，这些资产为股市大幅上涨做好了准备。但通常，当这‘三剑客’爬得更高时，几乎所有其他东西都会很快走下坡。”</p>\n<p>　　卡普兰指出，这三种资产在3月份的股票抛售之前都有所上涨，然后在3月23日股市触底之前发出了反弹的“预先警告”。</p>\n<p>　　他具体指出：“TLT从2020年3月9日的历史高点开始走低，波动率指数从2020年3月18日开始从2008年以来的最高点回落，美元指数则从2020年3月20日的三年高点开始回落。”</p>\n<p>　　为了为即将到来的回调做好准备，卡普兰建议投资者减少股票头寸，特别是在广受欢迎的大盘股科技板块，或者买入TLT <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>国债基金等避险资产。</p>\n<p>　　事实上，早在今年十月的市场震荡和特朗普感染新冠病毒后，当周就有创纪录资金流入国债ETF避险。根据媒体编纂的数据显示，投资者当时向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>公司的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EGRW\">iShares</a> 20年期以上国债交易所交易基金（TLT）投入近18亿美元，为该基金自2002年开始交易以来最大资金流入记录。</p>\n<p>　　卡普兰预计，在美股反弹开始之前，需要四到五个月的时间才能赶走那些以过高价格买入股票的投资者，并“奖励”那些退出的内部人士。然后，投资者可以关注内部人士购买股票等信号，当然还有这‘三剑客’的指标走势。</p>\n<p>　　“当这‘三剑客’指标触顶并再次走低时，或许会是在2021年冬末或初春，这可能是买入估值最低的中小市值股票的信号，因为这些股票将受益于随后一年左右通胀和利率上升的‘意外’趋势。”卡普兰最后说道。</p>\n<div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>多只美股将迎30-40％暴跌 大量企业董事已提前抛售离场</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n多只美股将迎30-40％暴跌 大量企业董事已提前抛售离场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-02 04:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2020/12/02043931388136.shtml><strong>金融界网站 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在新冠肺炎疫苗获得批准的希望提振下，美国股市似乎已准备好在12月的第一个交易日迎来开门红。面对一场致命的流行病，今年美股的复苏令人瞩目，因此外界预期这最后一个自然月也将看到股市的强劲反弹。\n　　但True Contrarian首席执行官史蒂文・乔恩・卡普兰（Steven Jon Kaplan）警告称，“相当严重的”股价下跌可能已经开始了，或者距离我们只有一周左右的时间。他表示，如果投资者知道往哪里...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2020/12/02043931388136.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3032b14c2473d66d67c993a1e0a753c0","relate_stocks":{"UVXY":"1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","SVXY":"0.5倍做空波动率指数短期期货ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF"},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2020/12/02043931388136.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2088347723","content_text":"在新冠肺炎疫苗获得批准的希望提振下，美国股市似乎已准备好在12月的第一个交易日迎来开门红。面对一场致命的流行病，今年美股的复苏令人瞩目，因此外界预期这最后一个自然月也将看到股市的强劲反弹。\n　　但True Contrarian首席执行官史蒂文・乔恩・卡普兰（Steven Jon Kaplan）警告称，“相当严重的”股价下跌可能已经开始了，或者距离我们只有一周左右的时间。他表示，如果投资者知道往哪里看，就会有很多信号表明这一点。\n　　卡普兰在采访和电子邮件中对财经媒体表示：“我最注意到的现象是投资者涌入股市，并创下资金流入纪录，而内部人士却从未像2020年11月那样展开大举抛售。”\n　　他指出，通过J3信息服务集团（J3 Information Services Group，一家追踪企业董事股票买卖情况的网站）的数据，所谓的内部人士正在“全面密集的抛售（股票）”。这意味着“最有见识的投资者意识到……（股市）即将大幅下跌，他们正在通过降低风险来为此做准备。”\n　　卡普兰说“很多股票都会下跌30%或40%”，他认为如今我们正处于熊市，因此建议看看2000到2003年间的美股回调，看看未来会发生什么。\n　　他说：“我们还有TLT（美国国债20以上年ETF，是目前美国市场中最受欢迎的美国长期国债ETF）、美元指数和波动率指数（VIX）等避险资产，这些资产为股市大幅上涨做好了准备。但通常，当这‘三剑客’爬得更高时，几乎所有其他东西都会很快走下坡。”\n　　卡普兰指出，这三种资产在3月份的股票抛售之前都有所上涨，然后在3月23日股市触底之前发出了反弹的“预先警告”。\n　　他具体指出：“TLT从2020年3月9日的历史高点开始走低，波动率指数从2020年3月18日开始从2008年以来的最高点回落，美元指数则从2020年3月20日的三年高点开始回落。”\n　　为了为即将到来的回调做好准备，卡普兰建议投资者减少股票头寸，特别是在广受欢迎的大盘股科技板块，或者买入TLT iShares国债基金等避险资产。\n　　事实上，早在今年十月的市场震荡和特朗普感染新冠病毒后，当周就有创纪录资金流入国债ETF避险。根据媒体编纂的数据显示，投资者当时向贝莱德公司的iShares 20年期以上国债交易所交易基金（TLT）投入近18亿美元，为该基金自2002年开始交易以来最大资金流入记录。\n　　卡普兰预计，在美股反弹开始之前，需要四到五个月的时间才能赶走那些以过高价格买入股票的投资者，并“奖励”那些退出的内部人士。然后，投资者可以关注内部人士购买股票等信号，当然还有这‘三剑客’的指标走势。\n　　“当这‘三剑客’指标触顶并再次走低时，或许会是在2021年冬末或初春，这可能是买入估值最低的中小市值股票的信号，因为这些股票将受益于随后一年左右通胀和利率上升的‘意外’趋势。”卡普兰最后说道。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}