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秦武扬
宁静以致远,绵绵而坚韧。
IP属地:上海
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秦武扬
2022-08-12
$中芯国际(00981)$
港股的价格怎么这么低,太变态了吧,为啥不从港股退市,这还值得在这上市吗?
秦武扬
2022-07-15
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
又一个瑞幸,好股票,无论如何诋毁,最后都会大涨。想想当时几分钱的瑞幸没买,懊悔啊!
秦武扬
2022-03-11
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
强
秦武扬
2022-03-10
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
牛
秦武扬
2022-03-03
**美股
抱歉,原内容已删除
秦武扬
2022-02-24
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
有啥好跌的,美元要奔溃了?
秦武扬
2022-02-02
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
今年7月量产,拭目以待。
秦武扬
2021-11-05
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
入不了金,看着没法抄底。
秦武扬
2021-09-02
$一起教育科技(YQ)$
在钉钉内直接使用,已转型为老师们的教学工具了,这是条路。
秦武扬
2021-08-10
$新东方(EDU)$
还能涨,厉害
秦武扬
2021-07-30
$一起教育科技(YQ)$
一大堆说新政不好,培训是前途无量的家伙去哪了,快来抄底呀,好着急呀。既然看好有钱不赚吗?真破一元可就来不及了。
秦武扬
2021-07-23
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
此股我看好,长期持有。
秦武扬
2021-03-30
$耐克(NKE)$
这事没这么容易过去的。赚了钱,还要造谣,可恶!
秦武扬
2021-03-27
$耐克(NKE)$
原来耐克在华业务占比只有16%左右,但是在华利润确占其总额的50%多。这真是作死了,耐克的董事会都疯了。本来不觉得怎样,现在看来不空它,那就是和钱过不去了![财迷]
秦武扬
2020-10-01
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
老虎SB不支持粉单,看着财不能发。郁闷
秦武扬
2020-07-29
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
仓位调整好了,静静等待跌破2元的时刻。
秦武扬
2020-07-29
$辉瑞(PFE)$
我已经平仓了,大家注意股价要开涨了。根据以往经历,本人一卖就涨的,等着数钱吧,各位![开心]
秦武扬
2020-07-01
$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$
两元以下想买,怎么这么快走上两元以上了,呵呵。
秦武扬
2020-06-24
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
今天看到好多人看瑞幸跌了,阴阳怪气,气的我去点杯抹茶瑞纳冰,我绿死你们。图就不发了,发过好多张点单图片了。老发烦人。
秦武扬
2020-06-19
你知道星巴克是暴利吗?你知道瑞幸的定价打了折也并不便宜吗?为啥补贴要停止?你到底喝过瑞幸没有?
这世上有一种失败,叫忽略常识
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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20:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"这世上有一种失败,叫忽略常识","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2044403534","media":"格上理财","summary":"作者:张良计来源:张良计(ID:zhang_liangj )瑞幸咖啡刚出来的时候,曾引起了不小的争议。支持它的人,认为这是一种全新的营销方法,吊打星巴克乃至所有的传统品牌。连瑞幸CMO的那本《流量池》","content":"<html><body><div></div><div></div><p><font>作者:<font>张良计</font></font></p><p><font>来源:张良计(ID:<font>zhang_liangj </font>)</font></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>刚出来的时候,曾引起了不小的争议。</p><p>支持它的人,认为这是一种全新的营销方法,吊打<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>乃至所有的传统品牌。连瑞幸CMO的那本《流量池》都一度卖到脱销。</p><p>而反对它的人,觉得这种烧钱换市场的做法不可能持久,想一路亏损亏到市占率第一名太难。</p><p>朋友来问我的看法,我一开始有点摇摆不定。</p><p>一方面瑞幸的打法确实凶狠。从传统做品牌的人的视角来看,这样一路高歌的迅猛扩张大大超出了这个行业的既有规律,确实让人耳目一新。</p><p>可另一方面,瑞幸的咖啡并没有比市面上的其他咖啡口味有着显著的区别和提升。单从咖啡品质上,它没有形成碾压性优势。反而更多时候瑞幸依靠碰瓷营销(比如喊话要告星巴克)等公关手段来炒作自己,博取眼球。</p><p>这种左右为难,让我不好判断,只能且看且分析。</p><p>直到后来有一次我去参加一个行业讨论会,会上一位知名国际公关公司的总经理说了这样一句话让我突然开窍:</p><p>“一个靠补贴来笼络消费者的品牌,能做出伟大的品牌吗?如果有一天停止补贴,消费者还会继续买你的咖啡吗?”</p><p>这其实回到一个做品牌的基本常识:</p><p><font><font>企业建立品牌的目的,是有一天哪怕不做广告了,消费者依然记得你并愿意去买你。</font></font></p><p>大家不妨想想看:</p><p>如果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>哪一天不做广告了,你会不会偶尔在吃饭的时候想喝一瓶他们家的可乐?</p><p>NIKE突然不打广告了,但你需要运动鞋的时候会不会想去NIKE店里看看?</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>突然不打广告了,可出新iPhone 的时候你会不会忍不住去把玩一下?</p><p>做品牌就是占领消费者的心智。成功的品牌一定是在消费者脑海里留下了不可磨灭的印象关键词。</p><p>坚持创新也好,特立独行也罢,甚至多快好省也完全可以,只要这些印象能把产品种草到消费者心中的欲望清单里,让人要买的时候就立马想到这个品牌,这才是做到位了。</p><p>然而现在有一个咖啡品牌,它的口味没什么特别,但天天打折发优惠券让人去喝,作为消费者的我会怎么想?</p><p>那当然是能薅一天羊毛就赶紧薅,薅完了该干嘛干嘛去。所以羊毛长不出来了,后面就只能作假欺骗投资人继续种羊毛给大家薅。</p><p>也许你会说,滴滴不也是靠烧钱烧出来一片天,瑞幸凭什么就不行呢?</p><p>因为打车和咖啡很不一样,打车是刚需,咖啡并不是。</p><p>什么叫刚需呢?就是没有它我觉得自己活不下去。</p><p>一个刚需市场,完全可以靠烧钱烧出行业第一的地位,再凭借垄断优势逐渐盈利。</p><p>同样的例子是共享充电宝。即使许多人觉得多此一举,但你不能否认依然有相当一部分人出门嫌麻烦不愿意带充电宝。出门随时能充电,就是一个刚需。</p><p>而咖啡并不具备这些特点,它的替代品太多。</p><p>而且比起白酒和茶饮这些中国人千百年来形成的行为和文化,咖啡这个舶来品能够落地生根成长的空间非常有限。</p><p>星巴克花了多少年在中国发展,打的还是第三空间的概念,并没有想过改变中国人的饮料习惯。</p><p>所以瑞幸的CEO在做路演时,根据美日韩的人均咖啡消耗量比我们高出一大截,就推断出中国有迎头赶上的机会,这种想法其实站不住脚。</p><p>因为许多人根本就没有喝咖啡的习惯,甚至还有许多人是把咖啡当饮料在喝。对这些人而言,没了咖啡,喝奶茶喝碳酸饮料也完全OK。</p><p>而以上这些,都是常识。但凡有一点市场营销知识,或者商业分析能力的人,都可以说出这些话来。</p><p>一个建立在反常识之上的商业模式,再怎么编故事扭曲事实最后都不会变得正常。</p><p>只是,这个世界越来越不相信正常。</p><p>因为正常就不够震撼,正常就不够吸引眼球,正常就带不来流量,所以大家都想方设法变得不正常。</p><p>另外一个不正常,是直播。</p><p>因为疫情的影响,一夜间几乎所有行业都把直播带货当成救命稻草。直播成为2020开年最大的风口。</p><p>然而真的所有品类的商品都适合直播吗?</p><p>一位妈妈会因为自己喜爱的主播推荐了,就毫不犹豫地购买一罐她从来没有听过名字的奶粉吗?</p><p>一款口红、一盒酸奶的消费逻辑,和买一套房买一辆车,会是一样的吗?</p><p>就拿买车举例。</p><p>大家不妨把自己当做一个手握钞票准备买车的消费者,你会怎么开始?</p><p>首先你是不是要先问问周围朋友的推荐,或者在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATHM\">汽车之家</a>上看看预算范围内可供选择的品牌都有哪些,再研究一下某款汽车的具体评论,然后去4S店里试驾感受一下,顺便问问销售有没有什么优惠政策。</p><p>这些环节中有一个地方不满意,你就可能重新换个品牌再去研究、比对、甚至和销售们反复讨价还价。</p><p>为什么要这么复杂?</p><p>原因很简单,因为汽车贵啊。</p><p>我们不说那些把买车当买优衣库的极少数有钱人。一个普通的正常人,拿自己年收入的一大半去买一辆车,谁不会小心翼翼,慎之又慎?</p><p>根据相关调查显示,中国一名普通消费者购买汽车的决策流程平均长达3个月。</p><p>换句话说,至少在现阶段,汽车绝不是一个冲动型消费的商品。它背后的每一个决策环节都需要购买者大量的时间精力投入。</p><p>奶粉也是同样的道理。</p><p>虽然和汽车相比奶粉的单价并不高,但这是给小孩子喝的东西,相信没有一个妈妈敢在这上面随便。</p><p>这时我们再回过来想想,为什么直播时你会因为一句“OMG买它”就会毫不犹豫下单买一箱零食,可你很难用同样的逻辑去下几千几万块定金买一辆汽车。</p><p>因为你无法承受决策失误后带来的损失。</p><p>一袋零食买回来,你发现并没有传说中的那么好吃,可能淘宝给个差评就结束了。</p><p>但一辆汽车买回来,你隔三差五发现不是特别耗油就是空调打不开,这可不是一个差评就能解决的问题。</p><p>同样的,一款你根本不了解的奶粉,万一买回来孩子喝出事情怎么办?你是不是要去跟商家拼命?</p><p>所以说,直播天然只适合冲动型消费的品类。</p><p>通俗讲,就是那种单价不高,技术含量也一般,吃了用了不会有风险,买错了也不会让你大动干戈的东西。比如洗发水,原子笔,充电宝,饼干等等。</p><p>而对于像房产、汽车这种前期需要花大量功夫去研究的商品,直播并不能解决消费者筛选、比对、试用的难题。</p><p>唯一能通过直播把这种商品卖出去的方法,是用户早就对你的品牌非常熟悉和信赖。</p><p>比如你去直播卖宝马3系,优惠只要比平时多一点点就能大卖,因为宝马3系本身就被消费者广泛认知和认可。</p><p>但这并不是直播的功劳,而要归功于宝马过去在不同媒体渠道上的长期宣传和建设。</p><p><font><font>直播,只是完成了销售闭环最后的临门一脚而已,它并没有把球带到球门前。</font></font></p><p>直播也并不是什么救命稻草。它和多年前的电视购物没有本质区别,只不过是嫁接在电商平台上用内容引导销售的营销套路。品质差的商品其他渠道卖不动,直播一样也没用。</p><p>理解了这个,你就知道为什么直播火了这么久,真正带来正向商业收益的只有为数不多的少数品牌。</p><p>更多品牌涌入直播间都是赔本赚吆喝,看上去销售额屡创新高,背后的成本却是无底洞。</p><p>当然我不是说直播是一种失败的营销模式,而是要理性看待它。既不要高估它的价值,也不能低估它的作用。</p><p>平视它就好。</p><p>无论瑞幸也好,直播也罢,许多我们平时看到的商业案例,做得不如人意的一个重要原因,就是四个字:</p><p><font><font>忽略常识。</font></font></p><p>常识,是能被时间反复验证的一套规律。它广泛存在于我们生活的周围,构建了这个世界的运转体系。</p><p>大自然的优胜劣汰是常识,生产工具的迭代发展是常识,人性的欲望是常识,每一个行业也有这个行业的常识。</p><p>做任何事情,首先要尊重常识,然后在常识的基础上去做优化和改善,这才叫创新。</p><p>马云的湖畔大学在创立之初有个理念,叫研究失败。</p><p>他说过一段话很耐人寻味:</p><p><font><font>“成功并不是因为你天资聪颖或运气好。成功是因为你把别人的失败都研究透了,避开了所有人走过的坑,最后走到了终点而已。”</font></font></p><p>而这条路上许多坑的名字,都可以称为“常识”。</p><p>如果我们能把一些生活中的常识研究透彻,可以避免走许多弯路,甚至在失败之前能够及时止损。</p><p>今天时间有限,就说个最普遍的常识:</p><p><font><font>人性。</font></font></p><p>前两天我还在和一个朋友聊天,说学习就是一件很反人性的事情。</p><p>为什么抖音这种娱乐内容的平台能大行其道,反而知识付费领域到现在都没有跑出来一个垄断性品牌?</p><p>因为人天生就是懒惰追逐享受的。西方宗教里有个七宗罪的概念,懒惰就是其中一条。</p><p>抖音只是顺应了这条人性而已。</p><p>它不产生思考负担,而且能够立即带来大脑愉悦的反馈。再加上抖音背后一套成熟的上瘾机制设计,让许多人不知不觉沉溺其中,一刷就是一晚上。</p><p>可学习是不会让人上瘾的,相反学习还在对抗人性。</p><p>如果用爬山来打比方,刷抖音就是下山,一路畅快淋漓;而学习是上山,每一段新知识都是一级更高的台阶。</p><p>并且学习不能马上带来积极的正反馈,反而一开始更多的都是带来消极的负反馈。</p><p>大家不妨想想自己在学习一项新概念新知识的时候,起初是不是都是各种懵逼,有种啃书啃不动的感觉?</p><p>只有当你熬过这段艰难时期,知识和技巧积累到一个临界点时才会突然开窍,后面如行云流水一般。这时你才真正享受到知识带来的愉悦和成就感红利。</p><p>这番感悟,来自于我小时候学钢琴的经历。</p><p>在头两年打基本功的时候,我弹的全都是枯燥难听的练习曲,几度都有放弃的念头。</p><p>可过了好多年,当我的手法技巧娴熟以后,我能够自由选择肖邦莫扎特贝多芬的各种经典曲目,这才真正爱上了钢琴。</p><p>而这段经历,就是“学习”这件事情的本质缩影。</p><p>如果此刻你是一位教育课程的设计人员,理解了这些,在设计课程框架的时候就会得到新的灵感。</p><p>比如如何设计知识的阶梯性难度,来保证一开始的学习负反馈在学员可承受的范围之内?</p><p>再比如如何在课程中添加学习的正反馈,来对冲掉这些负反馈带来的挫败感,从而保证学员持续学习下去的动力?</p><p>这都是基于人性这个常识之上,所能带来更深程度的思考。</p><p>学会尊重常识,而不是脱离常识。任何创新,都是对既有常识做出的优化和改善,而不是没有来由的天马行空。</p><p>疯狂只属于极少数的天才。我们可以仰望他们,但不必学习他们。</p><p>更适合我们普通人的道路,是理解常识。在常识中思考本质,顺应常识的规律去做事情,这足以让我们成功。</p><p>与君共勉。</p><div></div></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>这世上有一种失败,叫忽略常识</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n这世上有一种失败,叫忽略常识\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-19 20:48 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_1908759833_71c55d1901900o5k6.html><strong>格上理财</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:张良计来源:张良计(ID:zhang_liangj )瑞幸咖啡刚出来的时候,曾引起了不小的争议。支持它的人,认为这是一种全新的营销方法,吊打星巴克乃至所有的传统品牌。连瑞幸CMO的那本《流量池》都一度卖到脱销。而反对它的人,觉得这种烧钱换市场的做法不可能持久,想一路亏损亏到市占率第一名太难。朋友来问我的看法,我一开始有点摇摆不定。一方面瑞幸的打法确实凶狠。从传统做品牌的人的视角来看,这样一路...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_1908759833_71c55d1901900o5k6.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bc554492a6ac75a506826b968cfb2f","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克","04337":"星巴克-T"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://k.sina.cn/article_1908759833_71c55d1901900o5k6.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2044403534","content_text":"作者:张良计来源:张良计(ID:zhang_liangj )瑞幸咖啡刚出来的时候,曾引起了不小的争议。支持它的人,认为这是一种全新的营销方法,吊打星巴克乃至所有的传统品牌。连瑞幸CMO的那本《流量池》都一度卖到脱销。而反对它的人,觉得这种烧钱换市场的做法不可能持久,想一路亏损亏到市占率第一名太难。朋友来问我的看法,我一开始有点摇摆不定。一方面瑞幸的打法确实凶狠。从传统做品牌的人的视角来看,这样一路高歌的迅猛扩张大大超出了这个行业的既有规律,确实让人耳目一新。可另一方面,瑞幸的咖啡并没有比市面上的其他咖啡口味有着显著的区别和提升。单从咖啡品质上,它没有形成碾压性优势。反而更多时候瑞幸依靠碰瓷营销(比如喊话要告星巴克)等公关手段来炒作自己,博取眼球。这种左右为难,让我不好判断,只能且看且分析。直到后来有一次我去参加一个行业讨论会,会上一位知名国际公关公司的总经理说了这样一句话让我突然开窍:“一个靠补贴来笼络消费者的品牌,能做出伟大的品牌吗?如果有一天停止补贴,消费者还会继续买你的咖啡吗?”这其实回到一个做品牌的基本常识:企业建立品牌的目的,是有一天哪怕不做广告了,消费者依然记得你并愿意去买你。大家不妨想想看:如果可口可乐哪一天不做广告了,你会不会偶尔在吃饭的时候想喝一瓶他们家的可乐?NIKE突然不打广告了,但你需要运动鞋的时候会不会想去NIKE店里看看?苹果突然不打广告了,可出新iPhone 的时候你会不会忍不住去把玩一下?做品牌就是占领消费者的心智。成功的品牌一定是在消费者脑海里留下了不可磨灭的印象关键词。坚持创新也好,特立独行也罢,甚至多快好省也完全可以,只要这些印象能把产品种草到消费者心中的欲望清单里,让人要买的时候就立马想到这个品牌,这才是做到位了。然而现在有一个咖啡品牌,它的口味没什么特别,但天天打折发优惠券让人去喝,作为消费者的我会怎么想?那当然是能薅一天羊毛就赶紧薅,薅完了该干嘛干嘛去。所以羊毛长不出来了,后面就只能作假欺骗投资人继续种羊毛给大家薅。也许你会说,滴滴不也是靠烧钱烧出来一片天,瑞幸凭什么就不行呢?因为打车和咖啡很不一样,打车是刚需,咖啡并不是。什么叫刚需呢?就是没有它我觉得自己活不下去。一个刚需市场,完全可以靠烧钱烧出行业第一的地位,再凭借垄断优势逐渐盈利。同样的例子是共享充电宝。即使许多人觉得多此一举,但你不能否认依然有相当一部分人出门嫌麻烦不愿意带充电宝。出门随时能充电,就是一个刚需。而咖啡并不具备这些特点,它的替代品太多。而且比起白酒和茶饮这些中国人千百年来形成的行为和文化,咖啡这个舶来品能够落地生根成长的空间非常有限。星巴克花了多少年在中国发展,打的还是第三空间的概念,并没有想过改变中国人的饮料习惯。所以瑞幸的CEO在做路演时,根据美日韩的人均咖啡消耗量比我们高出一大截,就推断出中国有迎头赶上的机会,这种想法其实站不住脚。因为许多人根本就没有喝咖啡的习惯,甚至还有许多人是把咖啡当饮料在喝。对这些人而言,没了咖啡,喝奶茶喝碳酸饮料也完全OK。而以上这些,都是常识。但凡有一点市场营销知识,或者商业分析能力的人,都可以说出这些话来。一个建立在反常识之上的商业模式,再怎么编故事扭曲事实最后都不会变得正常。只是,这个世界越来越不相信正常。因为正常就不够震撼,正常就不够吸引眼球,正常就带不来流量,所以大家都想方设法变得不正常。另外一个不正常,是直播。因为疫情的影响,一夜间几乎所有行业都把直播带货当成救命稻草。直播成为2020开年最大的风口。然而真的所有品类的商品都适合直播吗?一位妈妈会因为自己喜爱的主播推荐了,就毫不犹豫地购买一罐她从来没有听过名字的奶粉吗?一款口红、一盒酸奶的消费逻辑,和买一套房买一辆车,会是一样的吗?就拿买车举例。大家不妨把自己当做一个手握钞票准备买车的消费者,你会怎么开始?首先你是不是要先问问周围朋友的推荐,或者在汽车之家上看看预算范围内可供选择的品牌都有哪些,再研究一下某款汽车的具体评论,然后去4S店里试驾感受一下,顺便问问销售有没有什么优惠政策。这些环节中有一个地方不满意,你就可能重新换个品牌再去研究、比对、甚至和销售们反复讨价还价。为什么要这么复杂?原因很简单,因为汽车贵啊。我们不说那些把买车当买优衣库的极少数有钱人。一个普通的正常人,拿自己年收入的一大半去买一辆车,谁不会小心翼翼,慎之又慎?根据相关调查显示,中国一名普通消费者购买汽车的决策流程平均长达3个月。换句话说,至少在现阶段,汽车绝不是一个冲动型消费的商品。它背后的每一个决策环节都需要购买者大量的时间精力投入。奶粉也是同样的道理。虽然和汽车相比奶粉的单价并不高,但这是给小孩子喝的东西,相信没有一个妈妈敢在这上面随便。这时我们再回过来想想,为什么直播时你会因为一句“OMG买它”就会毫不犹豫下单买一箱零食,可你很难用同样的逻辑去下几千几万块定金买一辆汽车。因为你无法承受决策失误后带来的损失。一袋零食买回来,你发现并没有传说中的那么好吃,可能淘宝给个差评就结束了。但一辆汽车买回来,你隔三差五发现不是特别耗油就是空调打不开,这可不是一个差评就能解决的问题。同样的,一款你根本不了解的奶粉,万一买回来孩子喝出事情怎么办?你是不是要去跟商家拼命?所以说,直播天然只适合冲动型消费的品类。通俗讲,就是那种单价不高,技术含量也一般,吃了用了不会有风险,买错了也不会让你大动干戈的东西。比如洗发水,原子笔,充电宝,饼干等等。而对于像房产、汽车这种前期需要花大量功夫去研究的商品,直播并不能解决消费者筛选、比对、试用的难题。唯一能通过直播把这种商品卖出去的方法,是用户早就对你的品牌非常熟悉和信赖。比如你去直播卖宝马3系,优惠只要比平时多一点点就能大卖,因为宝马3系本身就被消费者广泛认知和认可。但这并不是直播的功劳,而要归功于宝马过去在不同媒体渠道上的长期宣传和建设。直播,只是完成了销售闭环最后的临门一脚而已,它并没有把球带到球门前。直播也并不是什么救命稻草。它和多年前的电视购物没有本质区别,只不过是嫁接在电商平台上用内容引导销售的营销套路。品质差的商品其他渠道卖不动,直播一样也没用。理解了这个,你就知道为什么直播火了这么久,真正带来正向商业收益的只有为数不多的少数品牌。更多品牌涌入直播间都是赔本赚吆喝,看上去销售额屡创新高,背后的成本却是无底洞。当然我不是说直播是一种失败的营销模式,而是要理性看待它。既不要高估它的价值,也不能低估它的作用。平视它就好。无论瑞幸也好,直播也罢,许多我们平时看到的商业案例,做得不如人意的一个重要原因,就是四个字:忽略常识。常识,是能被时间反复验证的一套规律。它广泛存在于我们生活的周围,构建了这个世界的运转体系。大自然的优胜劣汰是常识,生产工具的迭代发展是常识,人性的欲望是常识,每一个行业也有这个行业的常识。做任何事情,首先要尊重常识,然后在常识的基础上去做优化和改善,这才叫创新。马云的湖畔大学在创立之初有个理念,叫研究失败。他说过一段话很耐人寻味:“成功并不是因为你天资聪颖或运气好。成功是因为你把别人的失败都研究透了,避开了所有人走过的坑,最后走到了终点而已。”而这条路上许多坑的名字,都可以称为“常识”。如果我们能把一些生活中的常识研究透彻,可以避免走许多弯路,甚至在失败之前能够及时止损。今天时间有限,就说个最普遍的常识:人性。前两天我还在和一个朋友聊天,说学习就是一件很反人性的事情。为什么抖音这种娱乐内容的平台能大行其道,反而知识付费领域到现在都没有跑出来一个垄断性品牌?因为人天生就是懒惰追逐享受的。西方宗教里有个七宗罪的概念,懒惰就是其中一条。抖音只是顺应了这条人性而已。它不产生思考负担,而且能够立即带来大脑愉悦的反馈。再加上抖音背后一套成熟的上瘾机制设计,让许多人不知不觉沉溺其中,一刷就是一晚上。可学习是不会让人上瘾的,相反学习还在对抗人性。如果用爬山来打比方,刷抖音就是下山,一路畅快淋漓;而学习是上山,每一段新知识都是一级更高的台阶。并且学习不能马上带来积极的正反馈,反而一开始更多的都是带来消极的负反馈。大家不妨想想自己在学习一项新概念新知识的时候,起初是不是都是各种懵逼,有种啃书啃不动的感觉?只有当你熬过这段艰难时期,知识和技巧积累到一个临界点时才会突然开窍,后面如行云流水一般。这时你才真正享受到知识带来的愉悦和成就感红利。这番感悟,来自于我小时候学钢琴的经历。在头两年打基本功的时候,我弹的全都是枯燥难听的练习曲,几度都有放弃的念头。可过了好多年,当我的手法技巧娴熟以后,我能够自由选择肖邦莫扎特贝多芬的各种经典曲目,这才真正爱上了钢琴。而这段经历,就是“学习”这件事情的本质缩影。如果此刻你是一位教育课程的设计人员,理解了这些,在设计课程框架的时候就会得到新的灵感。比如如何设计知识的阶梯性难度,来保证一开始的学习负反馈在学员可承受的范围之内?再比如如何在课程中添加学习的正反馈,来对冲掉这些负反馈带来的挫败感,从而保证学员持续学习下去的动力?这都是基于人性这个常识之上,所能带来更深程度的思考。学会尊重常识,而不是脱离常识。任何创新,都是对既有常识做出的优化和改善,而不是没有来由的天马行空。疯狂只属于极少数的天才。我们可以仰望他们,但不必学习他们。更适合我们普通人的道路,是理解常识。在常识中思考本质,顺应常识的规律去做事情,这足以让我们成功。与君共勉。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":42817,"gmtCreate":1485517076040,"gmtModify":1704874851498,"author":{"id":"265359520140866","authorId":"265359520140866","name":"秦武扬","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/0f0692ad2316376ead8d1fe0bf0deead","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"265359520140866","authorIdStr":"265359520140866"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$DryShips 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