The crude oil markets continued to consolidate during the trading session on Thursday as we are essentially stuck in the same area that I have been talking about for several days. WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market pulled back a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to consolidate between the 20 day EMA underneath, and the 50 day EMA above. We have recently seen a lot of bullish pressure in this marketplace, so it’s not a huge surprise to think that perhaps we will eventually get a breakout. Obviously, after the massive amount of technical damage that has been done in this market there will be a lot of traders out there a bit nervous about going long. Because of this, I think it could be a bit difficult to continue to go higher, but eventually I believe the buyers

Crude oil markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, using the large, round, psychologically important levels, and the support from lower levels to turn things around. The WTI Crude Oil market rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, using the $50 level as support. The 20 day EMA underneath is starting to turn higher, and it sits just below that level. The 50 day EMA above is offering resistance, and as I have said recently, I think the next move will be based upon a break of one of those levels. If we can break above the 50 day EMA, that could send this market much higher, perhaps reaching towards the $57.50 level, perhaps even the $60 level. At this point, I think pullbacks will continue to find plenty of support though, and I do think that the market will c

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Natural gas markets tried to rally during most of the day on Thursday but got turned around as we are essentially hanging about the $3.00 level with no real momentum. Natural gas markets continue to be relatively flat, as we hang around the $3.00 level. I think at this point, the market looks very likely to make an explosive move soon, but I also believe that the directionality is probably to the upside, albeit for short-term. The 20 day EMA is close to the $3.32 level, and of course there is a gap above that still needs to be filled. Because of this, I expect a move towards the 20 day EMA, but so far we have not been able to make that move. Once we do, I think at that point looking for signs of exhaustion would be the way to go. At that point you can sell and pick up a little bit of real

Natural gas markets continue to do very little, and the Wednesday session sees more of the same. The $3.00 level has offered significant support, and I think it should continue to be the case. Natural gas markets continue to be very sideways overall as we hover around the $3.00 level. This is a market that has sold off rather drastically, so it makes sense that we would probably hang about. The gap above is of course going to offer a significant amount of selling pressure, but we also need to fill the gap in order to fill the technical needs of the market. The $3.30 level above should be a massive resistance barrier, as quite often you will see a gap filled only to turn right back around. We have seen the 20 day EMA turn down towards that area, so I think it’s only a matter of time before

Natural gas markets bounced a bit during the day on Tuesday, showing signs of resiliency near the $3.00 level. Ultimately though, this is a market that is very bearish. However, at these extraordinarily extended low levels, one would have to think that we are overdone. Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as the $3.00 level has attracted a certain amount of attention. Because of this, I think that we will probably continue to see a lot of noise in this market, but the gap above I think needs to be filled. I’m looking at any rally as an opportunity to do just that, fill the gap. That would send the market towards the $3.30 level, perhaps even higher. The $3.50 level for me is still massive resistance as well, so I think that given enough time we will see

The natural gas markets went back and forth during the trading session on Monday as traders came back to work. It seems as if we are starting to face a significant amount of support, which quite frankly makes sense considering we had sold off so drastically. The natural gas markets went back and forth during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to meander just below the $3.00 level. This is a market that continues to be very bearish, but quite frankly we are so oversold that I think that a bounce is likely. That bounce will more than likely find trouble at the top of the gap, somewhere near the $3.30 level. I’m looking for an exhaustive candle stick in that general vicinity, and therefore will start shorting as soon as I get the opportunity. Beyond that, I think the $3.50 level ab

Natural gas markets have fallen during most of the week but seem to be finding support at a major round figure, which of course is something that always catches my attention. Ultimately, we are oversold so this could be a clue as to where we are going next. The natural gas markets gapped lower to kick off the week, and then broke down below the $3.00 level. By doing so, we entered a very bearish phase of the selloff, but by the end of the week we had started to see a bit of resiliency. At this point in time, I think that the market will probably try to rally from here and go looking towards the top of the gap, closer to the $3.30 level. Natural gas had gotten way ahead of itself. However, now it looks as if it had gotten ahead of itself to the downside as well. Overall, I think that a shor

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Natural gas markets sold off during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see massive bearish pressure. Quite frankly, at this point I think that if you are trying to short this market, you are chasing the trade, one of the best ways to lose money. Natural gas markets got hammered again during the trading session on Thursday, losing over 2%, as we continue to see people jumping out of this market and shorting it based upon the idea of warmer temperatures in the United States, and perhaps a lowering of global demand as it looks like we are going to see a slowing down of economic activity. This means that manufacturers and factories simply won’t need as much energy. Beyond that, crude oil is very cheap and quite frankly there may be people out there betting on the idea of crude o

Natural gas markets continue to show a lot of negativity, breaking below the $3.00 level. The market has rolled over quite drastically to get to this point, as we have wiped out the seasonality of bullishness. Natural gas markets gapped a bit lower during the first major session of the new year, showing signs of weakness yet again. The market has broken below the $3.00 level, which of course is a psychological barrier, but at the end of the day I think there’s probably plenty of bearish pressure above that we can take advantage of. The energy markets have been absolutely hammered lately, and therefore I think you could probably get a bounce. That bounce should be a nice selling opportunity though, as we have seen so much destruction to the bullish case scenario. There is concern about glob

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2019年第一天注定永远没法忘记，这不仅仅对于我个人对于很多征战在天然气领域的人也适用。 首先，本人一个半月以前预测的第一目标118.40如期实现。中间质疑的人之多，各种分析试图把空的格局打破的也不在少数。实际上回头看都是没有什么水平和经验的散户。表面看罗列数据之全，引经据典之盛。到头来还是踏空或者望洋兴叹。那些“老古董”的所谓tech analysis请不要再拿出来丢人现眼。这个时代已经不是前100年了。没有绝对的计算能力和绝对的财富，你就必须被割韭菜。因为你看到的景象和我们在暗处看到的景象是完全不同的。 其次，这样的跌幅和涨幅可以刷新很多人对金融的认识。也会让对市场没有敬畏的人一败而出局。进入市场只想赚钱害怕亏钱这是人的天性使然。可是没有把最坏的结果想在最前边，那么结局就是很狼狈甚至很落魄。 第三，还是老话，本人一个半月以前预测的第二目标140.80必将在不久的将来实现。我这个人就是只有结果没有过程，因为市场只认可结果不问过程。就像高考一样，录取学校只会管你最后能考几分，但是不会管你如何考出来的或者为何考不出来的。所以那些长篇大论，滔滔不绝可是没有什么实际效果的分析就暂时不用再自娱自乐了。 最后总结一下，人生如同金融行军，既然不是平坦的就必须有up&down。 $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ $三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ $天然气ETF-United States(UNG)$

不用多言，一切用事实说话。 经历了一个半月的等待，本人于2018年11月15日预测的DGAZ第一目标118.40于2018年最后一个交易日顺利实现。 真实值为118.44，预测值为118.40。误差仅仅在0.04元。 $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ $三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$ $天然气ETF-United States(UNG)$

Natural gas markets gap lower to kick off the trading session on New Year’s Eve, but as you can see we did go much lower than that. There is a significant amount of support just below, and I think at this point it’s likely that the market will try to fill the gap. Natural gas markets gapped lower to kick off the New Year’s Eve trading session, reaching down towards the $3.05 level. The $3.00 level underneath should be massive support, and therefore wouldn’t be surprising at all to see this market turned around and try to fill the gap. That gap is substantial, perhaps all the way to the $3.25 level. I think that the $3.00 level is of course psychologically important, and I think it will attract a lot of volume. Part of the gap lower could have been due to thin liquidity, as it was New Year’

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此前一段时间，天然气在众多大宗商品中似乎立于不败之地，因为当时预计未来几个月会出现严寒天气，而供暖燃料库存则处于多年低点。但随着2018、2019年之交的冬季终于到来，天气却比此前想象的还要温暖，天然气这个商品看起来不再那么牢靠，比起上涨，其价格可能更倾向于下跌。过了本周五后，2018年便仅剩一个交易日，天然气年内的增幅只有不到20%。 复杂天气削弱了天然气涨幅 在六周前，天然气价格的涨幅逼近60%，主要是受到冬季前期寒冷天气的影响。但在之后，多变的天气开始削减天然气的回报。早些时候的涨幅一度令天然气在今年大宗商品表现中位居榜首，但目前它的回报要次于可可和小麦，后两者分别上涨25%和20%。总部位于休斯顿的天然气咨询公司Gelber & Associates的分析师Dan Myers表示，天然气交易商正在积极预期另一轮可持续的寒冷天气，但这似乎难以捉摸。 交易员对短期内寒潮来袭不抱希望 Myers补充说：“近期天然气的交易一直是基于技术面因素，市场仍在关注天气预报，等待任何可能带来又一轮重大价格波动的天气变化。然而，随着最新的预报排除了1月初气温骤降的可能，市场开始失去信心。如果要防止天然气价格进一步下滑，那么希望全在于一个比以往更为寒冷的冬季。”在寒潮到来之前，交易者将更加关注每周的天然气供需数据。截至12月21日的一周中，美国EIA天然气库存下降了480亿立方英尺，降幅不及预期的520亿立方英尺，这大概是前一周降幅141亿立方英尺的三分之一。但即使141亿立方英尺创9月寒冷季节开始以来的第二周三位数降幅，天然气市场仍然处于波动状态。其价格先是大幅上涨，之后随着市场担忧供暖需求将在未来几周复杂天气的背景下变得疲软，天然气价格开始下滑。 年初创纪录产量与需求增长趋势相一致 对于天然气而言，今年是颠簸的一年。来自初始钻探的大量天然气以及在页岩油钻取过程中产生的伴生气，

The natural gas markets struggle during the previous week, initially trying to break above the $3.75 level before breaking down to fill the gap at the $3.25 level. This of course is a very bearish turn of events, but we have sold off so rapidly that it’s difficult to sell at this point. Natural gas markets initially tried to turn around and break above the $3.75 level, but then fell hard from there to reach towards the $3.25 level. This is an area where we had a gap previously, and of course this will attract certain amount of attention. The 50 EMA on the weekly chart has offered technical support, but quite frankly I think what we are more than likely going to see is a short-term bounce that we consider selling again. I think the $3.75 level will also offer resistance, and I’d be more tha

Natural gas markets broke down a bit during the day on Friday, reaching towards the $3.25 area again. The $3.25 level of course is where we had seen a gap previously, so it should offer a bit of support. Natural gas markets broke down a bit during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see weakness in the natural gas markets. The 50 day EMA is above and turning lower, so I think that any rally at this point will probably show signs of exhaustion. If we were to break above the 50 day EMA, we could take off to the $4.00 level. This is an area that was previous support, so it should now be resistance. Ultimately, I like fading rallies as natural gas markets are most decidedly bearish but we also may have got a bit ahead of ourselves in the short term. Because of this, we will probab

Natural gas markets went back and forth during trading on Wednesday, showing signs of confusion. At this point, we have fallen just as quickly as we rose to get into the symmetric triangle, so I think at this point it’s probably best to let the market figure its way out. Natural gas markets went back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday and what would have been thin volume. Ultimately, I think that the 50 day EMA above is resistance, and as it is starting to turn lower it could be a nice opportunity to start selling again. However, if we break above the 50 day EMA, it could send the market towards the $4.00 level above. With this type of volatility, I think that the market will probably find reason to roll over eventually, but we may get a bit of a relief rally between now and