2019年第一天必将载入史册！

2019-01-01

2019年第一天注定永远没法忘记，这不仅仅对于我个人对于很多征战在天然气领域的人也适用。

首先，本人一个半月以前预测的第一目标118.40如期实现。中间质疑的人之多，各种分析试图把空的格局打破的也不在少数。实际上回头看都是没有什么水平和经验的散户。表面看罗列数据之全，引经据典之盛。到头来还是踏空或者望洋兴叹。那些“老古董”的所谓tech analysis请不要再拿出来丢人现眼。这个时代已经不是前100年了。没有绝对的计算能力和绝对的财富，你就必须被割韭菜。因为你看到的景象和我们在暗处看到的景象是完全不同的。

其次，这样的跌幅和涨幅可以刷新很多人对金融的认识。也会让对市场没有敬畏的人一败而出局。进入市场只想赚钱害怕亏钱这是人的天性使然。可是没有把最坏的结果想在最前边，那么结局就是很狼狈甚至很落魄。

第三，还是老话，本人一个半月以前预测的第二目标140.80必将在不久的将来实现。我这个人就是只有结果没有过程，因为市场只认可结果不问过程。就像高考一样，录取学校只会管你最后能考几分，但是不会管你如何考出来的或者为何考不出来的。所以那些长篇大论，滔滔不绝可是没有什么实际效果的分析就暂时不用再自娱自乐了。

最后总结一下，人生如同金融行军，既然不是平坦的就必须有up&down。

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$

$天然气ETF-United States(UNG)$

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

青龙与小白龙
2019-01-01
青龙与小白龙
@UCLA的Frank 想请教大哥一个问题。如截图所见，我于图中画了一条临界线，之前上涨趋势中，天然气现货一直都是做多支付利息，做空得到利息，从那根线过后，做多开始得到利息，做空要支付利息。我原以为如果做多得到利息，便会是多头行情，现在看来应该是谁支付利息，行情就会往哪边发展。等大哥的最终目标实现后，我打算做多现货，长期持股，赚取大量利息。不知道天然气下次爆发是急涨还是慢涨？因为中途利息可能会轮转
- 青龙与小白龙回复ultimatezy:
  我玩的都是正规平台，尽管一些对赌平台很多，可我从来没有遇到过黑平台。
- 青龙与小白龙回复净空大湿:
  速度滚粗
- 青龙与小白龙回复UCLA的Frank:
  英镑对日元还处于探底形态，在走势没有好转前我是不会去做多的，顶多在跌得差不多时去玩玩波段。
- UCLA的Frank回复青龙与小白龙:
  实际上我喜欢做gbpjpy，这个标的可谓是波动力度很大。
- 净空大湿:
  别舔了行吗？别像哈巴狗一样
ModusPonen
2019-01-01
ModusPonen
good calls so far, do you have a subscription service? I am in the AI & Analytics space as well, be good to have an other intercept to my own conclusions. AFAIK, no vendor was able to accurately forecast the depth and length of the warm up past three weeks, what's your target past $2.5-2.7?
- ModusPonen回复UCLA的Frank:
  I think we're in agreement, stock out risk is almost completely gone, My EOS is 1600 BCF, so it's gonna chop around with 5/6 c vol. Upside risk is with a impending SSW resulting in a cold Feb, cash may pull up prompt month but it's going to be a short lived pop w/ $3.5 tops, I'll believe it when cold shows up in print.
- UCLA的Frank:
  I think the price of nat gas will keep a choppy status around $2.5-3 when it touched the range $2.5-2.7. Actually, the bullish season is ended & the next period would be the 4th quarter of 2019.
1703ylx
2019-01-01
1703ylx
2019年将是各位大赚的一年
- UCLA的Frank:
  2019要全面规划，稳准狠的干
净空大湿
2019-01-02
净空大湿
这个功能有点意思哈哈哈
- 净空大湿回复UCLA的Frank:
  抄少了(o^^o)
- UCLA的Frank:
  这个价格可谓是很牛逼呀
AnchorYU
2019-01-01
AnchorYU
牛🐮，大哥厉害。
大哥今天用先出了dg嘛，然后再买回嘛？下个交易日ng应该会反弹吧？
- AnchorYU回复UCLA的Frank:
  学习了[微笑]一语点破
- UCLA的Frank回复AnchorYU:
  况且，整个期货还是backwardation，怎么可能大反弹呢？我个人从经验来看估计会一直跌，直到出现2.8—2.7。
- UCLA的Frank回复AnchorYU:
  大反弹那是不可能的。有个问题你要明白，现在交易的是春季合约了。春天天然气怎么大涨呢？
- AnchorYU回复UCLA的Frank:
  那会出现大的反弹吗？就类似11月初的来回涨跌
- UCLA的Frank:
  我可不做这些T+0，我们是long trading。你要是想吃这些蝇头小利，最后很可能导致丢西瓜。
初心不惑
2019-01-01
初心不惑
请假大哥，问个小白的问题。天然气期货的一月，二月，三月合约都是按照什么定价的？
- UCLA的Frank:
  期货每个月合约的价格自然是市场决定的。

发表看法

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想请教大哥一个问题。如截图所见，我于图中画了一条临界线，之前上涨趋势中，天然气现货一直都是做多支付利息，做空得到利息，从那根线过后，做多开始得到利息，做空要支付利息。我原以为如果做多得到利息，便会是多头行情，现在看来应该是谁支付利息，行情就会往哪边发展。等大哥的最终目标实现后，我打算做多现货，长期持股，赚取大量利息。不知道天然气下次爆发是急涨还是慢涨？因为中途利息可能会轮转 \n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862315b73d1ececaafbfad9f9255b5e2\">","text":"@UCLA的Frank 想请教大哥一个问题。如截图所见，我于图中画了一条临界线，之前上涨趋势中，天然气现货一直都是做多支付利息，做空得到利息，从那根线过后，做多开始得到利息，做空要支付利息。我原以为如果做多得到利息，便会是多头行情，现在看来应该是谁支付利息，行情就会往哪边发展。等大哥的最终目标实现后，我打算做多现货，长期持股，赚取大量利息。不知道天然气下次爆发是急涨还是慢涨？因为中途利息可能会轮转 \n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862315b73d1ececaafbfad9f9255b5e2\">","html":"@UCLA的Frank 想请教大哥一个问题。如截图所见，我于图中画了一条临界线，之前上涨趋势中，天然气现货一直都是做多支付利息，做空得到利息，从那根线过后，做多开始得到利息，做空要支付利息。我原以为如果做多得到利息，便会是多头行情，现在看来应该是谁支付利息，行情就会往哪边发展。等大哥的最终目标实现后，我打算做多现货，长期持股，赚取大量利息。不知道天然气下次爆发是急涨还是慢涨？因为中途利息可能会轮转 \n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862315b73d1ececaafbfad9f9255b5e2\">","likeSize":1,"commentSize":9,"subComments":[{"id":1248520,"commentId":"1248520","gmtCreate":1546401318131,"gmtModify":1546401318131,"authorId":21780229070406,"author":{"id":21780229070406,"idStr":"21780229070406","authorId":21780229070406,"name":"青龙与小白龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f905fe174349b7a86627d07a6fc0e44","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3496175713202657,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3496175713202657,"idStr":"3496175713202657","authorId":3496175713202657,"name":"ultimatezy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":1247458,"supIdStr":"1247458","prevId":1247892,"prevIdStr":"1247892","content":"我玩的都是正规平台，尽管一些对赌平台很多，可我从来没有遇到过黑平台。","text":"我玩的都是正规平台，尽管一些对赌平台很多，可我从来没有遇到过黑平台。","html":"我玩的都是正规平台，尽管一些对赌平台很多，可我从来没有遇到过黑平台。"},{"id":1248511,"commentId":"1248511","gmtCreate":1546401087195,"gmtModify":1546401087195,"authorId":21780229070406,"author":{"id":21780229070406,"idStr":"21780229070406","authorId":21780229070406,"name":"青龙与小白龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f905fe174349b7a86627d07a6fc0e44","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3446794703431475,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3446794703431475,"idStr":"3446794703431475","authorId":3446794703431475,"name":"净空大湿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742548157a51fa384b3fffa73ae7a2e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":1247458,"supIdStr":"1247458","prevId":1248222,"prevIdStr":"1248222","content":"速度滚粗","text":"速度滚粗","html":"速度滚粗"},{"id":1248479,"commentId":"1248479","gmtCreate":1546400035116,"gmtModify":1546400035116,"authorId":21780229070406,"author":{"id":21780229070406,"idStr":"21780229070406","authorId":21780229070406,"name":"青龙与小白龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f905fe174349b7a86627d07a6fc0e44","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":237120146055814,"repliedAuthor":{"id":237120146055814,"idStr":"237120146055814","authorId":237120146055814,"name":"UCLA的Frank","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/bccc90de117aeada64441f49cae8f782","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":1247458,"supIdStr":"1247458","prevId":1248279,"prevIdStr":"1248279","content":"英镑对日元还处于探底形态，在走势没有好转前我是不会去做多的，顶多在跌得差不多时去玩玩波段。","text":"英镑对日元还处于探底形态，在走势没有好转前我是不会去做多的，顶多在跌得差不多时去玩玩波段。","html":"英镑对日元还处于探底形态，在走势没有好转前我是不会去做多的，顶多在跌得差不多时去玩玩波段。"},{"id":1248279,"commentId":"1248279","gmtCreate":1546394330525,"gmtModify":1546395355049,"authorId":237120146055814,"author":{"id":237120146055814,"idStr":"237120146055814","authorId":237120146055814,"name":"UCLA的Frank","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/bccc90de117aeada64441f49cae8f782","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":21780229070406,"repliedAuthor":{"id":21780229070406,"idStr":"21780229070406","authorId":21780229070406,"name":"青龙与小白龙","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f905fe174349b7a86627d07a6fc0e44","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":1247458,"supIdStr":"1247458","prevId":1247495,"prevIdStr":"1247495","content":"实际上我喜欢做gbpjpy，这个标的可谓是波动力度很大。","text":"实际上我喜欢做gbpjpy，这个标的可谓是波动力度很大。","html":"实际上我喜欢做gbpjpy，这个标的可谓是波动力度很大。"},{"id":1248222,"commentId":"1248222","gmtCreate":1546392489394,"gmtModify":1546392489394,"authorId":3446794703431475,"author":{"id":3446794703431475,"idStr":"3446794703431475","authorId":3446794703431475,"name":"净空大湿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742548157a51fa384b3fffa73ae7a2e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":1247458,"supIdStr":"1247458","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"别舔了行吗？别像哈巴狗一样","text":"别舔了行吗？别像哈巴狗一样","html":"别舔了行吗？别像哈巴狗一样"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1247309,"commentId":"1247309","gmtCreate":1546292984271,"gmtModify":1546311148893,"authorId":3509386211594819,"author":{"id":3509386211594819,"idStr":"3509386211594819","authorId":3509386211594819,"name":"ModusPonen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"good calls so far, do you have a subscription service? I am in the AI &amp; Analytics space as well, be good to have an other intercept to my own conclusions. AFAIK, no vendor was able to accurately forecast the depth and length of the warm up past three weeks, what's your target past $2.5-2.7?","text":"good calls so far, do you have a subscription service? I am in the AI &amp; Analytics space as well, be good to have an other intercept to my own conclusions. AFAIK, no vendor was able to accurately forecast the depth and length of the warm up past three weeks, what's your target past $2.5-2.7?","html":"good calls so far, do you have a subscription service? I am in the AI &amp; Analytics space as well, be good to have an other intercept to my own conclusions. AFAIK, no vendor was able to accurately forecast the depth and length of the warm up past three weeks, what's your target past $2.5-2.7?","likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"subComments":[{"id":1250461,"commentId":"1250461","gmtCreate":1546456486985,"gmtModify":1546478364413,"authorId":3509386211594819,"author":{"id":3509386211594819,"idStr":"3509386211594819","authorId":3509386211594819,"name":"ModusPonen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":237120146055814,"repliedAuthor":{"id":237120146055814,"idStr":"237120146055814","authorId":237120146055814,"name":"UCLA的Frank","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/bccc90de117aeada64441f49cae8f782","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":1247309,"supIdStr":"1247309","prevId":1248309,"prevIdStr":"1248309","content":"I think we're in agreement, stock out risk is almost completely gone, My EOS is 1600 BCF, so it's gonna chop around with 5/6 c vol. Upside risk is with a impending SSW resulting in a cold Feb, cash may pull up prompt month but it's going to be a short lived pop w/ $3.5 tops, I'll believe it when cold shows up in print.","text":"I think we're in agreement, stock out risk is almost completely gone, My EOS is 1600 BCF, so it's gonna chop around with 5/6 c vol. Upside risk is with a impending SSW resulting in a cold Feb, cash may pull up prompt month but it's going to be a short lived pop w/ $3.5 tops, I'll believe it when cold shows up in print.","html":"I think we're in agreement, stock out risk is almost completely gone, My EOS is 1600 BCF, so it's gonna chop around with 5/6 c vol. Upside risk is with a impending SSW resulting in a cold Feb, cash may pull up prompt month but it's going to be a short lived pop w/ $3.5 tops, I'll believe it when cold shows up in print."},{"id":1248309,"commentId":"1248309","gmtCreate":1546395509408,"gmtModify":1546395509408,"authorId":237120146055814,"author":{"id":237120146055814,"idStr":"237120146055814","authorId":237120146055814,"name":"UCLA的Frank","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/bccc90de117aeada64441f49cae8f782","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":1247309,"supIdStr":"1247309","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"I think the price of nat gas will keep a choppy status around $2.5-3 when it touched the range $2.5-2.7. Actually, the bullish season is ended &amp; the next period would be the 4th quarter of 2019.","text":"I think the price of nat gas will keep a choppy status around $2.5-3 when it touched the range $2.5-2.7. Actually, the bullish season is ended &amp; the next period would be the 4th quarter of 2019.","html":"I think the price of nat gas will keep a choppy status around $2.5-3 when it touched the range $2.5-2.7. Actually, the bullish season is ended &amp; the next period would be the 4th quarter of 2019."}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1247273,"commentId":"1247273","gmtCreate":1546286754300,"gmtModify":1546286754300,"authorId":3453707692721602,"author":{"id":3453707692721602,"idStr":"3453707692721602","authorId":3453707692721602,"name":"1703ylx","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"2019年将是各位大赚的一年","text":"2019年将是各位大赚的一年","html":"2019年将是各位大赚的一年","likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"subComments":[{"id":1247275,"commentId":"1247275","gmtCreate":1546286886408,"gmtModify":1546286886408,"authorId":237120146055814,"author":{"id":237120146055814,"idStr":"237120146055814","authorId":237120146055814,"name":"UCLA的Frank","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/bccc90de117aeada64441f49cae8f782","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":1247273,"supIdStr":"1247273","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"2019要全面规划，稳准狠的干","text":"2019要全面规划，稳准狠的干","html":"2019要全面规划，稳准狠的干"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1248241,"commentId":"1248241","gmtCreate":1546393462790,"gmtModify":1546393462790,"authorId":3446794703431475,"author":{"id":3446794703431475,"idStr":"3446794703431475","authorId":3446794703431475,"name":"净空大湿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742548157a51fa384b3fffa73ae7a2e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":368056,"objectIdStr":"368056","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"这个功能有点意思哈哈哈 \n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04394ba2e5f711d94e0e5c3c532ea0f0\">","text":"这个功能有点意思哈哈哈 \n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04394ba2e5f711d94e0e5c3c532ea0f0\">","html":"这个功能有点意思哈哈哈 \n<img 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\n 大哥今天用先出了dg嘛，然后再买回嘛？下个交易日ng应该会反弹吧？","text":"牛🐮，大哥厉害。 \n 大哥今天用先出了dg嘛，然后再买回嘛？下个交易日ng应该会反弹吧？","html":"牛🐮，大哥厉害。 \n 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