牛王紫东的个人主页 - 老虎社区

牛王紫东

牛王紫东

以实现财务自由为目标，静静等待花开

IP属地：湖南

12关注

71粉丝

2主题

0勋章

11-11

$中芯国际(688981)$ 请直接打板两个

10-02

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 能不能学学美团？

09-25

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 万红独你绿！[强]

08-17

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

《大行报告》小米(01810.HK)投资评级及目标价(表)

03-13

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

《大行报告》小米(01810.HK)投资评级及目标价(表)

2021-10-20

$拼多多(PDD)$目标价400，一年半。

2021-10-15

$逸仙电商(YSG)$昨日已卖，加油。我2元来接盘

2021-06-23

$亚马逊(AMZN)$今晚十个点，大家早点睡，一起做梦

2021-06-11

$亚马逊(AMZN)$**毛，雄起

2020-10-15

$Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc(SPR)$我在15等你

2020-10-14

哗众取宠

牛市要来，注意吃相

2020-08-31

$小米集团-W(01810)$盛极必衰

2020-08-11

$Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc(SPR)$别太过分了，小涨一下差不多了

2020-07-22

$百度(BIDU)$赶快到118，准备了一万刀全仓call你

2020-07-20

$百度(BIDU)$跌吧，安静的跌吧，跌118，全仓call你

2019-10-15

$百度(BIDU)$ 前奏，没有子弹了

2019-09-26

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 8.85买买买

2019-08-26

永世不碰期权

2019-08-08

$拼多多(PDD)$ 今晚有4-5个点上升，不信吗

2019-08-01

$拼多多(PDD)$ 能不能冲到24，

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万红独你绿！[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353175818174720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":339265298252032,"gmtCreate":1723869202316,"gmtModify":1723869203814,"author":{"id":"232057868559264","authorId":"232057868559264","name":"牛王紫东","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c689aed776082cebeca8a9155ca4cf","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"232057868559264","authorIdStr":"232057868559264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/339265298252032","repostId":"2459264989","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2459264989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1723795680,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2459264989?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-16 16:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"《大行报告》小米(01810.HK)投资评级及目标价(表)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2459264989","media":"阿斯达克财经","summary":"综合10间券商预测，小米2024年中期收入介乎1,612.02亿元至1,647.33亿人民币，较上年同期的1,268.32亿人民币，按年增加27.1%至29.9%，中位数1,631.5亿人民币，按年升28.6%。投资者关注小米给予近期营运表现评论及指引、小米汽车毛利率表现等。","content":"<html><body><div> <span> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>(01810.HK)<span> </span>将于下周三(21日)公布今年第二季业绩，受惠第二季手机出货量按年升逾两成，因新兴市场区红米等新表现亮眼，抵销总体毛利率承压因素，本网综合8间券商预测，小米2024年中期非国际财务报告准则计量经调整净利润介乎108.41亿元至119.23亿人民币，较上年同期的83.74亿人民币，按年上升29.5%至42.4%，中位数113.51亿人民币，按年升35.6%。<br/>综合10间券商预测，小米2024年中期收入介乎1,612.02亿元至1,647.33亿人民币，较上年同期的1,268.32亿人民币，按年增加27.1%至29.9%，中位数1,631.5亿人民币，按年升28.6%。投资者关注小米给予近期营运表现评论及指引、小米汽车毛利率表现等。<br/><span></span><br/>下表列出20间券商对小米投资评级及目标价：<br/>券商│评级│目标价(港元)<br/>中银国际│买入│25.72元<br/>招银证券│买入│25.39元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>│增持│25.5元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>环球研究│买入│25.3元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>│买入│25元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>│增持│24元<br/>建银国际│跑赢大市│24元<br/>大华继显│买入│23.8元<br/>海通国际│跑赢大市│23.7元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>│买入│23.2元<br/>星展│买入│23元<br/>中金│跑赢大市│23元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">光大证券</a>│增持│22.8元<br/>花旗│买入│22.4元<br/>瑞银│买入│20元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00227\">第一上海</a>│买入│21.38元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">东方证券</a>│买入│19.12元<br/>大和│跑赢大市│18元<br/>野村│中性│17元<br/>(ta/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-08-16 12:25。)</p><div></div>AASTOCKS新闻 </span> </div></body></html>","source":"aastocks_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n《大行报告》小米(01810.HK)投资评级及目标价(表)\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-16 16:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1372306/latest-news/AAFN><strong>阿斯达克财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小米集团-W(01810.HK) 将于下周三(21日)公布今年第二季业绩，受惠第二季手机出货量按年升逾两成，因新兴市场区红米等新表现亮眼，抵销总体毛利率承压因素，本网综合8间券商预测，小米2024年中期非国际财务报告准则计量经调整净利润介乎108.41亿元至119.23亿人民币，较上年同期的83.74亿人民币，按年上升29.5%至42.4%，中位数113.51亿人民币，按年升35.6%。综合10间...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1372306/latest-news/AAFN\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20240719150141533_s.jpg","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1372306/latest-news/AAFN","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2459264989","content_text":"小米集团-W(01810.HK) 将于下周三(21日)公布今年第二季业绩，受惠第二季手机出货量按年升逾两成，因新兴市场区红米等新表现亮眼，抵销总体毛利率承压因素，本网综合8间券商预测，小米2024年中期非国际财务报告准则计量经调整净利润介乎108.41亿元至119.23亿人民币，较上年同期的83.74亿人民币，按年上升29.5%至42.4%，中位数113.51亿人民币，按年升35.6%。综合10间券商预测，小米2024年中期收入介乎1,612.02亿元至1,647.33亿人民币，较上年同期的1,268.32亿人民币，按年增加27.1%至29.9%，中位数1,631.5亿人民币，按年升28.6%。投资者关注小米给予近期营运表现评论及指引、小米汽车毛利率表现等。下表列出20间券商对小米投资评级及目标价：券商│评级│目标价(港元)中银国际│买入│25.72元招银证券│买入│25.39元摩根士丹利│增持│25.5元汇丰环球研究│买入│25.3元华泰证券│买入│25元摩根大通│增持│24元建银国际│跑赢大市│24元大华继显│买入│23.8元海通国际│跑赢大市│23.7元高盛│买入│23.2元星展│买入│23元中金│跑赢大市│23元光大证券│增持│22.8元花旗│买入│22.4元瑞银│买入│20元第一上海│买入│21.38元东方证券│买入│19.12元大和│跑赢大市│18元野村│中性│17元(ta/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-08-16 12:25。)AASTOCKS新闻","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283830856405072,"gmtCreate":1710311113788,"gmtModify":1710311115507,"author":{"id":"232057868559264","authorId":"232057868559264","name":"牛王紫东","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c689aed776082cebeca8a9155ca4cf","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"232057868559264","authorIdStr":"232057868559264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283830856405072","repostId":"2419528233","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2419528233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1710304920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2419528233?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-13 12:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"《大行报告》小米(01810.HK)投资评级及目标价(表)","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2419528233","media":"阿斯达克财经","summary":"小米-W将于下周二公布去年第四季业绩，受益于手机物料成本下滑、毛利率改善及小米14销情，本网综合13间券商预测，小米2023年第四季非国际财务报告准则计量经调整净利润介乎38亿元至40.96亿人民币，较2022年同期的14.61亿人民币，按年升1.6倍至1.8倍，中位数为40亿人民币，按年升1.74倍。","content":"<html><body><div> <span> <p>小米-W(01810.HK)<span> </span>将于下周二(19日)公布去年第四季业绩，受益于手机物料成本下滑、毛利率改善及小米14销情，本网综合13间券商预测，小米2023年第四季非国际财务报告准则计量经调整净利润介乎38亿元至40.96亿人民币，较2022年同期的14.61亿人民币，按年升1.6倍至1.8倍，中位数为40亿人民币，按年升1.74倍。<br/>投资者将关注小米管理层最新业务指引，包括手机业务付运、毛利率及华为等同业带来竞争、造车投入支出、小米汽车销售策略及指引等。就公司3月28日首款电动车将上市，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>指小米电动车于先进驾驶辅助系统(ADAS)领域创新及领先，未来或可能成为行业颠覆者，并成为仅次于智能手机出货量后的公司第二重要的库存驱动因素。<br/><span></span><br/>下表列出20间券商对小米-W(01810.HK)<span> </span>投资评级及目标价：<br/>券商│评级│目标价(港元)<br/>麦格理│跑赢大市│24.94元<br/>大华继显│买入│21.6元<br/>中银国际│买入│21.49元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>│买入│20元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>环球研究│买入│19.7元<br/>里昂│买入│19.7元<br/>花旗│买入│19.6元<br/>招银国际│买入│19.54元<br/>建银国际│跑赢大市│19.5元<br/>野村│中性│18.6元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>│买入│18.1元<br/>瑞银│买入│18元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>│买入│18元<br/>摩根士丹利│增持│17.5元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06066\">中信建投证券</a>│买入│17.3元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00665\">海通国际</a>│跑赢大市│17元<br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">东方证券</a>│买入│16.91元<br/>中金│跑赢行业│15.8元<br/>美银证券│中性│13.8元<br/>大和│跑赢大市│13.5元<br/>(ta/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-03-13 12:25。)</p><div></div>AASTOCKS新闻 </span> </div></body></html>","source":"aastocks_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1333059/latest-news/AAFN><strong>阿斯达克财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小米-W(01810.HK) 将于下周二(19日)公布去年第四季业绩，受益于手机物料成本下滑、毛利率改善及小米14销情，本网综合13间券商预测，小米2023年第四季非国际财务报告准则计量经调整净利润介乎38亿元至40.96亿人民币，较2022年同期的14.61亿人民币，按年升1.6倍至1.8倍，中位数为40亿人民币，按年升1.74倍。投资者将关注小米管理层最新业务指引，包括手机业务付运、毛利率及...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1333059/latest-news/AAFN\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://plib.aastocks.com/aafnnews/image/medialib/20220117175134644_s.jpg","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1333059/latest-news/AAFN","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2419528233","content_text":"小米-W(01810.HK) 将于下周二(19日)公布去年第四季业绩，受益于手机物料成本下滑、毛利率改善及小米14销情，本网综合13间券商预测，小米2023年第四季非国际财务报告准则计量经调整净利润介乎38亿元至40.96亿人民币，较2022年同期的14.61亿人民币，按年升1.6倍至1.8倍，中位数为40亿人民币，按年升1.74倍。投资者将关注小米管理层最新业务指引，包括手机业务付运、毛利率及华为等同业带来竞争、造车投入支出、小米汽车销售策略及指引等。就公司3月28日首款电动车将上市，摩根士丹利指小米电动车于先进驾驶辅助系统(ADAS)领域创新及领先，未来或可能成为行业颠覆者，并成为仅次于智能手机出货量后的公司第二重要的库存驱动因素。下表列出20间券商对小米-W(01810.HK) 投资评级及目标价：券商│评级│目标价(港元)麦格理│跑赢大市│24.94元大华继显│买入│21.6元中银国际│买入│21.49元华泰证券│买入│20元汇丰环球研究│买入│19.7元里昂│买入│19.7元花旗│买入│19.6元招银国际│买入│19.54元建银国际│跑赢大市│19.5元野村│中性│18.6元高盛│买入│18.1元瑞银│买入│18元中信证券│买入│18元摩根士丹利│增持│17.5元中信建投证券│买入│17.3元海通国际│跑赢大市│17元东方证券│买入│16.91元中金│跑赢行业│15.8元美银证券│中性│13.8元大和│跑赢大市│13.5元(ta/w)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2024-03-13 12:25。)AASTOCKS新闻","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859478594,"gmtCreate":1634728569448,"gmtModify":1634728569448,"author":{"id":"232057868559264","authorId":"232057868559264","name":"牛王紫东","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c689aed776082cebeca8a9155ca4cf","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"232057868559264","authorIdStr":"232057868559264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>目标价400，一年半。","listText":"<a 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Inc(SPR)$我在15等你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309735492","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3508481958797459","authorId":"3508481958797459","name":"CaptainJL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c998518b72b2dec0681d1aef4d84aa","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3508481958797459","authorIdStr":"3508481958797459"},"content":"你将会失望了","text":"你将会失望了","html":"你将会失望了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309884285,"gmtCreate":1602643453847,"gmtModify":1703827258361,"author":{"id":"232057868559264","authorId":"232057868559264","name":"牛王紫东","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c689aed776082cebeca8a9155ca4cf","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"232057868559264","authorIdStr":"232057868559264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哗众取宠","listText":"哗众取宠","text":"哗众取宠","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309884285","repostId":"1139235771","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139235771","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1602638050,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139235771?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-14 09:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"牛市要来，注意吃相","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139235771","media":"格隆汇","summary":"先吃一个瓜。\n9月20日，国金证券与国联证券筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。\n“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！金融界一篇沸腾！\n事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原","content":"<p>先吃一个瓜。</p>\n<p>9月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">国联证券</a>筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。</p>\n<p>“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>一篇沸腾！</p>\n<p>事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原因是尾盘阶段消息已经走漏，资金纷纷抢筹把股价拉上了涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3782f205259ef1889e844e99f9cbaba\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"713\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548eaf060771d61816d8915a1ab480f6\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"711\"></p>\n<p>然而等来的是……</p>\n<p>昨晚，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01456\">国联证券</a>与国金证券发布公告，称终止筹划重大重组，明日复牌。当然复牌之后并没有双双跌停，国联跌了5.9%，国金证券收涨2.8%，盘中一度还冲击涨停。</p>\n<p>对此猜测纷纭。</p>\n<p>有人说是监管层要给突然火爆的行情降降温，但我看更像是一次演砸了的乌龙事件。值得一提的是，从7月份行情突然火爆以来，关于金融机构合并的传闻一直在炒，但到目前为止，没有一个成真的。</p>\n<p>究其根源，今年以来金融板块实在是太惨了，估值低到残，也只能炒并购重组做做股价了。对于这种传闻，我向来的态度都是：不要当真。一当真你就输了。</p>\n<p><b>这两只证券股从合并传闻到最后终止的过程，似乎开了个善意的玩笑（毕竟没跌太狠），但似乎也预示着，这波行情后面还有多少个大雷等着股民。现在天天烈火烹油、收复跌幅、群里收个红包、账户价值创新高……</b><b>凶残的一面也许就要来了。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、翻多</b></p>\n<p>黄金周过后，A股行情迅速升温。以9月30日收盘价计算，到今日收盘，上证综指累计涨幅已经为4.4%，沪深300为5.49%，创业板指涨幅更是高达8.15%！</p>\n<p>黄金周之前，股市一片惨淡，从7月中旬到9月底，两个半月凄凄惨惨戚戚。沪深300还勉强算是在高位震荡，</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084231aa485f8405a6aff5bc0983c2da\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\"></p>\n<p>创业板指则是一浪低过一浪，一副区间下行的熊样儿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8affb3de92091f7eb8981cf38051370f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"569\"></p>\n<p>分析师则是，节前一副忧心忡忡的样子。“谨慎看多”、“震荡为主”、“年内难有大行情”，说的跟真的似的。然而，黄金周一过，立马两样了。过去说三根阳线改变信仰，现在来看，改变信仰，一根阳线就够了。</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b>大涨原因</b></p>\n<p>大涨还是有原因的。在我看来有三点。</p>\n<p><b>首先</b>是川普确诊新冠肺炎利空出尽，叠加拜登民调持续走高，外部风险因素有望缓和。</p>\n<p><b>其次</b>是黄金周期间外盘与港股持续大涨，情绪面得到修复。据统计，港股恒生指数在黄金周期间累计涨幅为5%，恒生科技指数累计涨幅9.33%，超过A股创业板指！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/360f008f35136392bfd915c81ae147b1\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"648\"></p>\n<p><b>第三，</b>可能与“国七条”（《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》）的发布有关。</p>\n<p>有分析把此次的这个“国七条”与2004年的“国九条”以及2014年的“新国九条”相比。那两次之后都爆发了烈火烹油般的大行情，但随后高空坠落更加恐怖。2006年的牛市之后，上证从6214点跌到1664点；2015年的牛市之后，上证从5187跌到2638。</p>\n<p>最近看到一份统计数据，2015年的大行情，85%的人是亏钱的，总共亏损2500亿！而赚钱的只有不到0.5%，其中包括一些机构、以及特别牛逼的散户和个人。来得快、去得更快的“疯牛”，是不折不扣的财富绞肉机！</p>\n<p>所以，这次如果再搞出2006或2015的那种大牛市，我只能说，呵呵了。</p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b>复刻七月行情？</b></p>\n<p>但人心思涨，是很难克服的人性现象。</p>\n<p>一片悲观的情绪中，某个原因，或者不知道是什么原因，突然引爆行情，持续大涨，成交量放大——这种现象在A股并不少见。</p>\n<p>是的，刚刚过去的7月初就上演过一次。</p>\n<p>当时也是经历了一个节假日，行情突然被引爆，配合几乎所有分析员、媒体、自媒体、雪球大V疯狂唱多。开户量激增，券商App宕机，散户韭菜跑步进场……</p>\n<p>但几天之后人们就发现，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。7月16日，超级巨大的IPO登场，抽水机开动，市场一根大阴线干下来，后面剩下的就是震荡，方向全无……</p>\n<p>这次，节假日情绪突然转暖，行情突然火爆，持续大涨，分析员媒体大V集体唱多，这几条因素已经具备。成交量放大、散户跑步进场、以及券商App宕机还没出现。过几天就会出现。</p>\n<p>过了一个假期，如果说有什么改变了，唯一能够改变的就是人们出门旅游，看到许多地方人满为患，表明经济并不是那么差，人们还愿意消费，舍得花钱，所以对经济、乃至对股市的信心增强了。</p>\n<p>还有更重要的，这次也有一个超级巨大的IPO在后面等着……</p>\n<p>也许，这个超级巨大的IPO登场之日，就是这波行情到头之时。话不能说得这么死，但得多加个小心。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b>后市怎么看</b></p>\n<p>先说结论：短期看多，中期看淡，长期看多。</p>\n<p><b>短期看多，</b>指的是那个超级IPO之前，市场一定是大涨的，原理参照7月初。</p>\n<p><b>中期看淡，</b>指的是3到6个月内，大行情的可能性不大。为什么？首先是疫情。今天青岛又发现本地确诊病例了，从5月份北京新发地疫情被扑灭，中国大陆本土疫情可以说已经完结了。但青岛又出现了，说明这个病毒极其难以彻底根治。此外全球还在一天大几万的蹭蹭蹭增加，中国很难风景这边独好。</p>\n<p>其次是货币与宏观条件。此前为应对疫情各国放了太多的水，目前货币宏观收紧已经是各国的共识，中国是这一轮最早退出货币宽松的国家。货币收紧的前提下，出现普涨大行情的概率很低。</p>\n<p>此外对于外资流入。前期人民币快速升值，外资流入较快。现在央行下调外汇风险准备金率，对于抑制做多人民币的投机有一定作用。虽然很难说人民币从此进入下行通道，但最起码外资流入的势头会收紧。这也不利于形成股市大行情。</p>\n<p>从周期的角度，目前的宏观、货币、进出口、房地产、金融市场的处境与2010年4月出台“国十条”前后比较接近。当时2008年全球金融危机之后各国放水，带来了一波明显的通胀与资产价格重建；2018年类似的情况发生，随后各国货币宽松，直到疫情期间，放水达到高潮。</p>\n<p>2008-2010，以及2018-2020，这两轮宽松周期类似，都是朱格拉周期中的第一个库存周期。现在是第一库存周期结束前的状态。而进入第二库存周期的触发因素，必须要有新的资本开支目标，说白了，要有至少一个“风口行业”。就上一轮第二库存周期而言，当时的风口就是“大众创业万众创新”、共享经济、小额信贷、以及P2P，当然棚改也算一个。</p>\n<p>这一轮有望启动第二库存周期的技术因素，包括数字货币、物联网、区块链、云计算、新能源、自动驾驶、芯片技术、生物医药等。因此，下一阶段的关注点，应该放到这些“新概念”上面。</p>\n<p>这些“新概念”里面，必定会跑出一大批公司，也会有更大一批公司在残酷的竞争中消亡。到那些跑出的公司开始兑现盈利，形成所谓的一批新的白马股，此时，周期时钟就会敲响第三库存周期。至此，一轮朱格拉资本开支周期走完，酝酿下一场金融危机，时间也许是2030年前后。那时是最后一次检验周金涛预言的时刻。</p>\n<p>按照康波周期的理论，2020-2030这十年，是中国为主导的全球资本开支与技术扩张周期。这期间中国将复刻美国1987到1999的牛市。<b>这是我们长期看多中国股市的原因。</b></p>\n<p><b>5、</b><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>扯远了，还是重复我之前的观点：</p>\n<p><b>只有大多数人不相信是牛市，才是慢牛行情。</b></p>\n<p>“在一次疯狂行情中跑步进场，闭着眼买，不久后被套，然后骂一辈子中国股市。”——这是我跟一个朋友聊天中，提及中国散户亏钱的永恒模式。</p>\n<p>所以，在这波大行情马上来临之际，我还是衷心希望慢一点，别太着急了。不然超级IPO那天，再复刻7月16那天的行情，今年也基本上就交待了。<b>恕我心直口快，如果让大多数股民永远重复这种被收割的模式，在一片怨毒之中，A股多少年也走不出慢牛行情。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n牛市要来，注意吃相\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-14 09:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>先吃一个瓜。</p>\n<p>9月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">国联证券</a>筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。</p>\n<p>“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>一篇沸腾！</p>\n<p>事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原因是尾盘阶段消息已经走漏，资金纷纷抢筹把股价拉上了涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3782f205259ef1889e844e99f9cbaba\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"713\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548eaf060771d61816d8915a1ab480f6\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"711\"></p>\n<p>然而等来的是……</p>\n<p>昨晚，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01456\">国联证券</a>与国金证券发布公告，称终止筹划重大重组，明日复牌。当然复牌之后并没有双双跌停，国联跌了5.9%，国金证券收涨2.8%，盘中一度还冲击涨停。</p>\n<p>对此猜测纷纭。</p>\n<p>有人说是监管层要给突然火爆的行情降降温，但我看更像是一次演砸了的乌龙事件。值得一提的是，从7月份行情突然火爆以来，关于金融机构合并的传闻一直在炒，但到目前为止，没有一个成真的。</p>\n<p>究其根源，今年以来金融板块实在是太惨了，估值低到残，也只能炒并购重组做做股价了。对于这种传闻，我向来的态度都是：不要当真。一当真你就输了。</p>\n<p><b>这两只证券股从合并传闻到最后终止的过程，似乎开了个善意的玩笑（毕竟没跌太狠），但似乎也预示着，这波行情后面还有多少个大雷等着股民。现在天天烈火烹油、收复跌幅、群里收个红包、账户价值创新高……</b><b>凶残的一面也许就要来了。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、翻多</b></p>\n<p>黄金周过后，A股行情迅速升温。以9月30日收盘价计算，到今日收盘，上证综指累计涨幅已经为4.4%，沪深300为5.49%，创业板指涨幅更是高达8.15%！</p>\n<p>黄金周之前，股市一片惨淡，从7月中旬到9月底，两个半月凄凄惨惨戚戚。沪深300还勉强算是在高位震荡，</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084231aa485f8405a6aff5bc0983c2da\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\"></p>\n<p>创业板指则是一浪低过一浪，一副区间下行的熊样儿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8affb3de92091f7eb8981cf38051370f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"569\"></p>\n<p>分析师则是，节前一副忧心忡忡的样子。“谨慎看多”、“震荡为主”、“年内难有大行情”，说的跟真的似的。然而，黄金周一过，立马两样了。过去说三根阳线改变信仰，现在来看，改变信仰，一根阳线就够了。</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b>大涨原因</b></p>\n<p>大涨还是有原因的。在我看来有三点。</p>\n<p><b>首先</b>是川普确诊新冠肺炎利空出尽，叠加拜登民调持续走高，外部风险因素有望缓和。</p>\n<p><b>其次</b>是黄金周期间外盘与港股持续大涨，情绪面得到修复。据统计，港股恒生指数在黄金周期间累计涨幅为5%，恒生科技指数累计涨幅9.33%，超过A股创业板指！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/360f008f35136392bfd915c81ae147b1\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"648\"></p>\n<p><b>第三，</b>可能与“国七条”（《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》）的发布有关。</p>\n<p>有分析把此次的这个“国七条”与2004年的“国九条”以及2014年的“新国九条”相比。那两次之后都爆发了烈火烹油般的大行情，但随后高空坠落更加恐怖。2006年的牛市之后，上证从6214点跌到1664点；2015年的牛市之后，上证从5187跌到2638。</p>\n<p>最近看到一份统计数据，2015年的大行情，85%的人是亏钱的，总共亏损2500亿！而赚钱的只有不到0.5%，其中包括一些机构、以及特别牛逼的散户和个人。来得快、去得更快的“疯牛”，是不折不扣的财富绞肉机！</p>\n<p>所以，这次如果再搞出2006或2015的那种大牛市，我只能说，呵呵了。</p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b>复刻七月行情？</b></p>\n<p>但人心思涨，是很难克服的人性现象。</p>\n<p>一片悲观的情绪中，某个原因，或者不知道是什么原因，突然引爆行情，持续大涨，成交量放大——这种现象在A股并不少见。</p>\n<p>是的，刚刚过去的7月初就上演过一次。</p>\n<p>当时也是经历了一个节假日，行情突然被引爆，配合几乎所有分析员、媒体、自媒体、雪球大V疯狂唱多。开户量激增，券商App宕机，散户韭菜跑步进场……</p>\n<p>但几天之后人们就发现，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。7月16日，超级巨大的IPO登场，抽水机开动，市场一根大阴线干下来，后面剩下的就是震荡，方向全无……</p>\n<p>这次，节假日情绪突然转暖，行情突然火爆，持续大涨，分析员媒体大V集体唱多，这几条因素已经具备。成交量放大、散户跑步进场、以及券商App宕机还没出现。过几天就会出现。</p>\n<p>过了一个假期，如果说有什么改变了，唯一能够改变的就是人们出门旅游，看到许多地方人满为患，表明经济并不是那么差，人们还愿意消费，舍得花钱，所以对经济、乃至对股市的信心增强了。</p>\n<p>还有更重要的，这次也有一个超级巨大的IPO在后面等着……</p>\n<p>也许，这个超级巨大的IPO登场之日，就是这波行情到头之时。话不能说得这么死，但得多加个小心。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b>后市怎么看</b></p>\n<p>先说结论：短期看多，中期看淡，长期看多。</p>\n<p><b>短期看多，</b>指的是那个超级IPO之前，市场一定是大涨的，原理参照7月初。</p>\n<p><b>中期看淡，</b>指的是3到6个月内，大行情的可能性不大。为什么？首先是疫情。今天青岛又发现本地确诊病例了，从5月份北京新发地疫情被扑灭，中国大陆本土疫情可以说已经完结了。但青岛又出现了，说明这个病毒极其难以彻底根治。此外全球还在一天大几万的蹭蹭蹭增加，中国很难风景这边独好。</p>\n<p>其次是货币与宏观条件。此前为应对疫情各国放了太多的水，目前货币宏观收紧已经是各国的共识，中国是这一轮最早退出货币宽松的国家。货币收紧的前提下，出现普涨大行情的概率很低。</p>\n<p>此外对于外资流入。前期人民币快速升值，外资流入较快。现在央行下调外汇风险准备金率，对于抑制做多人民币的投机有一定作用。虽然很难说人民币从此进入下行通道，但最起码外资流入的势头会收紧。这也不利于形成股市大行情。</p>\n<p>从周期的角度，目前的宏观、货币、进出口、房地产、金融市场的处境与2010年4月出台“国十条”前后比较接近。当时2008年全球金融危机之后各国放水，带来了一波明显的通胀与资产价格重建；2018年类似的情况发生，随后各国货币宽松，直到疫情期间，放水达到高潮。</p>\n<p>2008-2010，以及2018-2020，这两轮宽松周期类似，都是朱格拉周期中的第一个库存周期。现在是第一库存周期结束前的状态。而进入第二库存周期的触发因素，必须要有新的资本开支目标，说白了，要有至少一个“风口行业”。就上一轮第二库存周期而言，当时的风口就是“大众创业万众创新”、共享经济、小额信贷、以及P2P，当然棚改也算一个。</p>\n<p>这一轮有望启动第二库存周期的技术因素，包括数字货币、物联网、区块链、云计算、新能源、自动驾驶、芯片技术、生物医药等。因此，下一阶段的关注点，应该放到这些“新概念”上面。</p>\n<p>这些“新概念”里面，必定会跑出一大批公司，也会有更大一批公司在残酷的竞争中消亡。到那些跑出的公司开始兑现盈利，形成所谓的一批新的白马股，此时，周期时钟就会敲响第三库存周期。至此，一轮朱格拉资本开支周期走完，酝酿下一场金融危机，时间也许是2030年前后。那时是最后一次检验周金涛预言的时刻。</p>\n<p>按照康波周期的理论，2020-2030这十年，是中国为主导的全球资本开支与技术扩张周期。这期间中国将复刻美国1987到1999的牛市。<b>这是我们长期看多中国股市的原因。</b></p>\n<p><b>5、</b><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>扯远了，还是重复我之前的观点：</p>\n<p><b>只有大多数人不相信是牛市，才是慢牛行情。</b></p>\n<p>“在一次疯狂行情中跑步进场，闭着眼买，不久后被套，然后骂一辈子中国股市。”——这是我跟一个朋友聊天中，提及中国散户亏钱的永恒模式。</p>\n<p>所以，在这波大行情马上来临之际，我还是衷心希望慢一点，别太着急了。不然超级IPO那天，再复刻7月16那天的行情，今年也基本上就交待了。<b>恕我心直口快，如果让大多数股民永远重复这种被收割的模式，在一片怨毒之中，A股多少年也走不出慢牛行情。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139235771","content_text":"先吃一个瓜。\n9月20日，国金证券与国联证券筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。\n“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！金融界一篇沸腾！\n事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原因是尾盘阶段消息已经走漏，资金纷纷抢筹把股价拉上了涨停。\n\n然而等来的是……\n昨晚，国联证券与国金证券发布公告，称终止筹划重大重组，明日复牌。当然复牌之后并没有双双跌停，国联跌了5.9%，国金证券收涨2.8%，盘中一度还冲击涨停。\n对此猜测纷纭。\n有人说是监管层要给突然火爆的行情降降温，但我看更像是一次演砸了的乌龙事件。值得一提的是，从7月份行情突然火爆以来，关于金融机构合并的传闻一直在炒，但到目前为止，没有一个成真的。\n究其根源，今年以来金融板块实在是太惨了，估值低到残，也只能炒并购重组做做股价了。对于这种传闻，我向来的态度都是：不要当真。一当真你就输了。\n这两只证券股从合并传闻到最后终止的过程，似乎开了个善意的玩笑（毕竟没跌太狠），但似乎也预示着，这波行情后面还有多少个大雷等着股民。现在天天烈火烹油、收复跌幅、群里收个红包、账户价值创新高……凶残的一面也许就要来了。\n1、翻多\n黄金周过后，A股行情迅速升温。以9月30日收盘价计算，到今日收盘，上证综指累计涨幅已经为4.4%，沪深300为5.49%，创业板指涨幅更是高达8.15%！\n黄金周之前，股市一片惨淡，从7月中旬到9月底，两个半月凄凄惨惨戚戚。沪深300还勉强算是在高位震荡，\n\n创业板指则是一浪低过一浪，一副区间下行的熊样儿。\n\n分析师则是，节前一副忧心忡忡的样子。“谨慎看多”、“震荡为主”、“年内难有大行情”，说的跟真的似的。然而，黄金周一过，立马两样了。过去说三根阳线改变信仰，现在来看，改变信仰，一根阳线就够了。\n2、大涨原因\n大涨还是有原因的。在我看来有三点。\n首先是川普确诊新冠肺炎利空出尽，叠加拜登民调持续走高，外部风险因素有望缓和。\n其次是黄金周期间外盘与港股持续大涨，情绪面得到修复。据统计，港股恒生指数在黄金周期间累计涨幅为5%，恒生科技指数累计涨幅9.33%，超过A股创业板指！\n\n第三，可能与“国七条”（《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》）的发布有关。\n有分析把此次的这个“国七条”与2004年的“国九条”以及2014年的“新国九条”相比。那两次之后都爆发了烈火烹油般的大行情，但随后高空坠落更加恐怖。2006年的牛市之后，上证从6214点跌到1664点；2015年的牛市之后，上证从5187跌到2638。\n最近看到一份统计数据，2015年的大行情，85%的人是亏钱的，总共亏损2500亿！而赚钱的只有不到0.5%，其中包括一些机构、以及特别牛逼的散户和个人。来得快、去得更快的“疯牛”，是不折不扣的财富绞肉机！\n所以，这次如果再搞出2006或2015的那种大牛市，我只能说，呵呵了。\n3、复刻七月行情？\n但人心思涨，是很难克服的人性现象。\n一片悲观的情绪中，某个原因，或者不知道是什么原因，突然引爆行情，持续大涨，成交量放大——这种现象在A股并不少见。\n是的，刚刚过去的7月初就上演过一次。\n当时也是经历了一个节假日，行情突然被引爆，配合几乎所有分析员、媒体、自媒体、雪球大V疯狂唱多。开户量激增，券商App宕机，散户韭菜跑步进场……\n但几天之后人们就发现，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。7月16日，超级巨大的IPO登场，抽水机开动，市场一根大阴线干下来，后面剩下的就是震荡，方向全无……\n这次，节假日情绪突然转暖，行情突然火爆，持续大涨，分析员媒体大V集体唱多，这几条因素已经具备。成交量放大、散户跑步进场、以及券商App宕机还没出现。过几天就会出现。\n过了一个假期，如果说有什么改变了，唯一能够改变的就是人们出门旅游，看到许多地方人满为患，表明经济并不是那么差，人们还愿意消费，舍得花钱，所以对经济、乃至对股市的信心增强了。\n还有更重要的，这次也有一个超级巨大的IPO在后面等着……\n也许，这个超级巨大的IPO登场之日，就是这波行情到头之时。话不能说得这么死，但得多加个小心。\n4、后市怎么看\n先说结论：短期看多，中期看淡，长期看多。\n短期看多，指的是那个超级IPO之前，市场一定是大涨的，原理参照7月初。\n中期看淡，指的是3到6个月内，大行情的可能性不大。为什么？首先是疫情。今天青岛又发现本地确诊病例了，从5月份北京新发地疫情被扑灭，中国大陆本土疫情可以说已经完结了。但青岛又出现了，说明这个病毒极其难以彻底根治。此外全球还在一天大几万的蹭蹭蹭增加，中国很难风景这边独好。\n其次是货币与宏观条件。此前为应对疫情各国放了太多的水，目前货币宏观收紧已经是各国的共识，中国是这一轮最早退出货币宽松的国家。货币收紧的前提下，出现普涨大行情的概率很低。\n此外对于外资流入。前期人民币快速升值，外资流入较快。现在央行下调外汇风险准备金率，对于抑制做多人民币的投机有一定作用。虽然很难说人民币从此进入下行通道，但最起码外资流入的势头会收紧。这也不利于形成股市大行情。\n从周期的角度，目前的宏观、货币、进出口、房地产、金融市场的处境与2010年4月出台“国十条”前后比较接近。当时2008年全球金融危机之后各国放水，带来了一波明显的通胀与资产价格重建；2018年类似的情况发生，随后各国货币宽松，直到疫情期间，放水达到高潮。\n2008-2010，以及2018-2020，这两轮宽松周期类似，都是朱格拉周期中的第一个库存周期。现在是第一库存周期结束前的状态。而进入第二库存周期的触发因素，必须要有新的资本开支目标，说白了，要有至少一个“风口行业”。就上一轮第二库存周期而言，当时的风口就是“大众创业万众创新”、共享经济、小额信贷、以及P2P，当然棚改也算一个。\n这一轮有望启动第二库存周期的技术因素，包括数字货币、物联网、区块链、云计算、新能源、自动驾驶、芯片技术、生物医药等。因此，下一阶段的关注点，应该放到这些“新概念”上面。\n这些“新概念”里面，必定会跑出一大批公司，也会有更大一批公司在残酷的竞争中消亡。到那些跑出的公司开始兑现盈利，形成所谓的一批新的白马股，此时，周期时钟就会敲响第三库存周期。至此，一轮朱格拉资本开支周期走完，酝酿下一场金融危机，时间也许是2030年前后。那时是最后一次检验周金涛预言的时刻。\n按照康波周期的理论，2020-2030这十年，是中国为主导的全球资本开支与技术扩张周期。这期间中国将复刻美国1987到1999的牛市。这是我们长期看多中国股市的原因。\n5、结论\n扯远了，还是重复我之前的观点：\n只有大多数人不相信是牛市，才是慢牛行情。\n“在一次疯狂行情中跑步进场，闭着眼买，不久后被套，然后骂一辈子中国股市。”——这是我跟一个朋友聊天中，提及中国散户亏钱的永恒模式。\n所以，在这波大行情马上来临之际，我还是衷心希望慢一点，别太着急了。不然超级IPO那天，再复刻7月16那天的行情，今年也基本上就交待了。恕我心直口快，如果让大多数股民永远重复这种被收割的模式，在一片怨毒之中，A股多少年也走不出慢牛行情。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":971308978,"gmtCreate":1598850648594,"gmtModify":1704220255150,"author":{"id":"232057868559264","authorId":"232057868559264","name":"牛王紫东","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c689aed776082cebeca8a9155ca4cf","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"232057868559264","authorIdStr":"232057868559264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>盛极必衰","listText":"<a 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09:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"牛市要来，注意吃相","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139235771","media":"格隆汇","summary":"先吃一个瓜。\n9月20日，国金证券与国联证券筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。\n“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！金融界一篇沸腾！\n事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原","content":"<p>先吃一个瓜。</p>\n<p>9月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">国联证券</a>筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。</p>\n<p>“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>一篇沸腾！</p>\n<p>事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原因是尾盘阶段消息已经走漏，资金纷纷抢筹把股价拉上了涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3782f205259ef1889e844e99f9cbaba\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"713\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548eaf060771d61816d8915a1ab480f6\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"711\"></p>\n<p>然而等来的是……</p>\n<p>昨晚，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01456\">国联证券</a>与国金证券发布公告，称终止筹划重大重组，明日复牌。当然复牌之后并没有双双跌停，国联跌了5.9%，国金证券收涨2.8%，盘中一度还冲击涨停。</p>\n<p>对此猜测纷纭。</p>\n<p>有人说是监管层要给突然火爆的行情降降温，但我看更像是一次演砸了的乌龙事件。值得一提的是，从7月份行情突然火爆以来，关于金融机构合并的传闻一直在炒，但到目前为止，没有一个成真的。</p>\n<p>究其根源，今年以来金融板块实在是太惨了，估值低到残，也只能炒并购重组做做股价了。对于这种传闻，我向来的态度都是：不要当真。一当真你就输了。</p>\n<p><b>这两只证券股从合并传闻到最后终止的过程，似乎开了个善意的玩笑（毕竟没跌太狠），但似乎也预示着，这波行情后面还有多少个大雷等着股民。现在天天烈火烹油、收复跌幅、群里收个红包、账户价值创新高……</b><b>凶残的一面也许就要来了。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、翻多</b></p>\n<p>黄金周过后，A股行情迅速升温。以9月30日收盘价计算，到今日收盘，上证综指累计涨幅已经为4.4%，沪深300为5.49%，创业板指涨幅更是高达8.15%！</p>\n<p>黄金周之前，股市一片惨淡，从7月中旬到9月底，两个半月凄凄惨惨戚戚。沪深300还勉强算是在高位震荡，</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084231aa485f8405a6aff5bc0983c2da\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\"></p>\n<p>创业板指则是一浪低过一浪，一副区间下行的熊样儿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8affb3de92091f7eb8981cf38051370f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"569\"></p>\n<p>分析师则是，节前一副忧心忡忡的样子。“谨慎看多”、“震荡为主”、“年内难有大行情”，说的跟真的似的。然而，黄金周一过，立马两样了。过去说三根阳线改变信仰，现在来看，改变信仰，一根阳线就够了。</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b>大涨原因</b></p>\n<p>大涨还是有原因的。在我看来有三点。</p>\n<p><b>首先</b>是川普确诊新冠肺炎利空出尽，叠加拜登民调持续走高，外部风险因素有望缓和。</p>\n<p><b>其次</b>是黄金周期间外盘与港股持续大涨，情绪面得到修复。据统计，港股恒生指数在黄金周期间累计涨幅为5%，恒生科技指数累计涨幅9.33%，超过A股创业板指！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/360f008f35136392bfd915c81ae147b1\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"648\"></p>\n<p><b>第三，</b>可能与“国七条”（《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》）的发布有关。</p>\n<p>有分析把此次的这个“国七条”与2004年的“国九条”以及2014年的“新国九条”相比。那两次之后都爆发了烈火烹油般的大行情，但随后高空坠落更加恐怖。2006年的牛市之后，上证从6214点跌到1664点；2015年的牛市之后，上证从5187跌到2638。</p>\n<p>最近看到一份统计数据，2015年的大行情，85%的人是亏钱的，总共亏损2500亿！而赚钱的只有不到0.5%，其中包括一些机构、以及特别牛逼的散户和个人。来得快、去得更快的“疯牛”，是不折不扣的财富绞肉机！</p>\n<p>所以，这次如果再搞出2006或2015的那种大牛市，我只能说，呵呵了。</p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b>复刻七月行情？</b></p>\n<p>但人心思涨，是很难克服的人性现象。</p>\n<p>一片悲观的情绪中，某个原因，或者不知道是什么原因，突然引爆行情，持续大涨，成交量放大——这种现象在A股并不少见。</p>\n<p>是的，刚刚过去的7月初就上演过一次。</p>\n<p>当时也是经历了一个节假日，行情突然被引爆，配合几乎所有分析员、媒体、自媒体、雪球大V疯狂唱多。开户量激增，券商App宕机，散户韭菜跑步进场……</p>\n<p>但几天之后人们就发现，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。7月16日，超级巨大的IPO登场，抽水机开动，市场一根大阴线干下来，后面剩下的就是震荡，方向全无……</p>\n<p>这次，节假日情绪突然转暖，行情突然火爆，持续大涨，分析员媒体大V集体唱多，这几条因素已经具备。成交量放大、散户跑步进场、以及券商App宕机还没出现。过几天就会出现。</p>\n<p>过了一个假期，如果说有什么改变了，唯一能够改变的就是人们出门旅游，看到许多地方人满为患，表明经济并不是那么差，人们还愿意消费，舍得花钱，所以对经济、乃至对股市的信心增强了。</p>\n<p>还有更重要的，这次也有一个超级巨大的IPO在后面等着……</p>\n<p>也许，这个超级巨大的IPO登场之日，就是这波行情到头之时。话不能说得这么死，但得多加个小心。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b>后市怎么看</b></p>\n<p>先说结论：短期看多，中期看淡，长期看多。</p>\n<p><b>短期看多，</b>指的是那个超级IPO之前，市场一定是大涨的，原理参照7月初。</p>\n<p><b>中期看淡，</b>指的是3到6个月内，大行情的可能性不大。为什么？首先是疫情。今天青岛又发现本地确诊病例了，从5月份北京新发地疫情被扑灭，中国大陆本土疫情可以说已经完结了。但青岛又出现了，说明这个病毒极其难以彻底根治。此外全球还在一天大几万的蹭蹭蹭增加，中国很难风景这边独好。</p>\n<p>其次是货币与宏观条件。此前为应对疫情各国放了太多的水，目前货币宏观收紧已经是各国的共识，中国是这一轮最早退出货币宽松的国家。货币收紧的前提下，出现普涨大行情的概率很低。</p>\n<p>此外对于外资流入。前期人民币快速升值，外资流入较快。现在央行下调外汇风险准备金率，对于抑制做多人民币的投机有一定作用。虽然很难说人民币从此进入下行通道，但最起码外资流入的势头会收紧。这也不利于形成股市大行情。</p>\n<p>从周期的角度，目前的宏观、货币、进出口、房地产、金融市场的处境与2010年4月出台“国十条”前后比较接近。当时2008年全球金融危机之后各国放水，带来了一波明显的通胀与资产价格重建；2018年类似的情况发生，随后各国货币宽松，直到疫情期间，放水达到高潮。</p>\n<p>2008-2010，以及2018-2020，这两轮宽松周期类似，都是朱格拉周期中的第一个库存周期。现在是第一库存周期结束前的状态。而进入第二库存周期的触发因素，必须要有新的资本开支目标，说白了，要有至少一个“风口行业”。就上一轮第二库存周期而言，当时的风口就是“大众创业万众创新”、共享经济、小额信贷、以及P2P，当然棚改也算一个。</p>\n<p>这一轮有望启动第二库存周期的技术因素，包括数字货币、物联网、区块链、云计算、新能源、自动驾驶、芯片技术、生物医药等。因此，下一阶段的关注点，应该放到这些“新概念”上面。</p>\n<p>这些“新概念”里面，必定会跑出一大批公司，也会有更大一批公司在残酷的竞争中消亡。到那些跑出的公司开始兑现盈利，形成所谓的一批新的白马股，此时，周期时钟就会敲响第三库存周期。至此，一轮朱格拉资本开支周期走完，酝酿下一场金融危机，时间也许是2030年前后。那时是最后一次检验周金涛预言的时刻。</p>\n<p>按照康波周期的理论，2020-2030这十年，是中国为主导的全球资本开支与技术扩张周期。这期间中国将复刻美国1987到1999的牛市。<b>这是我们长期看多中国股市的原因。</b></p>\n<p><b>5、</b><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>扯远了，还是重复我之前的观点：</p>\n<p><b>只有大多数人不相信是牛市，才是慢牛行情。</b></p>\n<p>“在一次疯狂行情中跑步进场，闭着眼买，不久后被套，然后骂一辈子中国股市。”——这是我跟一个朋友聊天中，提及中国散户亏钱的永恒模式。</p>\n<p>所以，在这波大行情马上来临之际，我还是衷心希望慢一点，别太着急了。不然超级IPO那天，再复刻7月16那天的行情，今年也基本上就交待了。<b>恕我心直口快，如果让大多数股民永远重复这种被收割的模式，在一片怨毒之中，A股多少年也走不出慢牛行情。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>牛市要来，注意吃相</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n牛市要来，注意吃相\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-14 09:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>先吃一个瓜。</p>\n<p>9月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">国联证券</a>筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。</p>\n<p>“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>一篇沸腾！</p>\n<p>事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原因是尾盘阶段消息已经走漏，资金纷纷抢筹把股价拉上了涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3782f205259ef1889e844e99f9cbaba\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"713\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548eaf060771d61816d8915a1ab480f6\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"711\"></p>\n<p>然而等来的是……</p>\n<p>昨晚，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01456\">国联证券</a>与国金证券发布公告，称终止筹划重大重组，明日复牌。当然复牌之后并没有双双跌停，国联跌了5.9%，国金证券收涨2.8%，盘中一度还冲击涨停。</p>\n<p>对此猜测纷纭。</p>\n<p>有人说是监管层要给突然火爆的行情降降温，但我看更像是一次演砸了的乌龙事件。值得一提的是，从7月份行情突然火爆以来，关于金融机构合并的传闻一直在炒，但到目前为止，没有一个成真的。</p>\n<p>究其根源，今年以来金融板块实在是太惨了，估值低到残，也只能炒并购重组做做股价了。对于这种传闻，我向来的态度都是：不要当真。一当真你就输了。</p>\n<p><b>这两只证券股从合并传闻到最后终止的过程，似乎开了个善意的玩笑（毕竟没跌太狠），但似乎也预示着，这波行情后面还有多少个大雷等着股民。现在天天烈火烹油、收复跌幅、群里收个红包、账户价值创新高……</b><b>凶残的一面也许就要来了。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、翻多</b></p>\n<p>黄金周过后，A股行情迅速升温。以9月30日收盘价计算，到今日收盘，上证综指累计涨幅已经为4.4%，沪深300为5.49%，创业板指涨幅更是高达8.15%！</p>\n<p>黄金周之前，股市一片惨淡，从7月中旬到9月底，两个半月凄凄惨惨戚戚。沪深300还勉强算是在高位震荡，</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084231aa485f8405a6aff5bc0983c2da\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\"></p>\n<p>创业板指则是一浪低过一浪，一副区间下行的熊样儿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8affb3de92091f7eb8981cf38051370f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"569\"></p>\n<p>分析师则是，节前一副忧心忡忡的样子。“谨慎看多”、“震荡为主”、“年内难有大行情”，说的跟真的似的。然而，黄金周一过，立马两样了。过去说三根阳线改变信仰，现在来看，改变信仰，一根阳线就够了。</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b>大涨原因</b></p>\n<p>大涨还是有原因的。在我看来有三点。</p>\n<p><b>首先</b>是川普确诊新冠肺炎利空出尽，叠加拜登民调持续走高，外部风险因素有望缓和。</p>\n<p><b>其次</b>是黄金周期间外盘与港股持续大涨，情绪面得到修复。据统计，港股恒生指数在黄金周期间累计涨幅为5%，恒生科技指数累计涨幅9.33%，超过A股创业板指！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/360f008f35136392bfd915c81ae147b1\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"648\"></p>\n<p><b>第三，</b>可能与“国七条”（《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》）的发布有关。</p>\n<p>有分析把此次的这个“国七条”与2004年的“国九条”以及2014年的“新国九条”相比。那两次之后都爆发了烈火烹油般的大行情，但随后高空坠落更加恐怖。2006年的牛市之后，上证从6214点跌到1664点；2015年的牛市之后，上证从5187跌到2638。</p>\n<p>最近看到一份统计数据，2015年的大行情，85%的人是亏钱的，总共亏损2500亿！而赚钱的只有不到0.5%，其中包括一些机构、以及特别牛逼的散户和个人。来得快、去得更快的“疯牛”，是不折不扣的财富绞肉机！</p>\n<p>所以，这次如果再搞出2006或2015的那种大牛市，我只能说，呵呵了。</p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b>复刻七月行情？</b></p>\n<p>但人心思涨，是很难克服的人性现象。</p>\n<p>一片悲观的情绪中，某个原因，或者不知道是什么原因，突然引爆行情，持续大涨，成交量放大——这种现象在A股并不少见。</p>\n<p>是的，刚刚过去的7月初就上演过一次。</p>\n<p>当时也是经历了一个节假日，行情突然被引爆，配合几乎所有分析员、媒体、自媒体、雪球大V疯狂唱多。开户量激增，券商App宕机，散户韭菜跑步进场……</p>\n<p>但几天之后人们就发现，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。7月16日，超级巨大的IPO登场，抽水机开动，市场一根大阴线干下来，后面剩下的就是震荡，方向全无……</p>\n<p>这次，节假日情绪突然转暖，行情突然火爆，持续大涨，分析员媒体大V集体唱多，这几条因素已经具备。成交量放大、散户跑步进场、以及券商App宕机还没出现。过几天就会出现。</p>\n<p>过了一个假期，如果说有什么改变了，唯一能够改变的就是人们出门旅游，看到许多地方人满为患，表明经济并不是那么差，人们还愿意消费，舍得花钱，所以对经济、乃至对股市的信心增强了。</p>\n<p>还有更重要的，这次也有一个超级巨大的IPO在后面等着……</p>\n<p>也许，这个超级巨大的IPO登场之日，就是这波行情到头之时。话不能说得这么死，但得多加个小心。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b>后市怎么看</b></p>\n<p>先说结论：短期看多，中期看淡，长期看多。</p>\n<p><b>短期看多，</b>指的是那个超级IPO之前，市场一定是大涨的，原理参照7月初。</p>\n<p><b>中期看淡，</b>指的是3到6个月内，大行情的可能性不大。为什么？首先是疫情。今天青岛又发现本地确诊病例了，从5月份北京新发地疫情被扑灭，中国大陆本土疫情可以说已经完结了。但青岛又出现了，说明这个病毒极其难以彻底根治。此外全球还在一天大几万的蹭蹭蹭增加，中国很难风景这边独好。</p>\n<p>其次是货币与宏观条件。此前为应对疫情各国放了太多的水，目前货币宏观收紧已经是各国的共识，中国是这一轮最早退出货币宽松的国家。货币收紧的前提下，出现普涨大行情的概率很低。</p>\n<p>此外对于外资流入。前期人民币快速升值，外资流入较快。现在央行下调外汇风险准备金率，对于抑制做多人民币的投机有一定作用。虽然很难说人民币从此进入下行通道，但最起码外资流入的势头会收紧。这也不利于形成股市大行情。</p>\n<p>从周期的角度，目前的宏观、货币、进出口、房地产、金融市场的处境与2010年4月出台“国十条”前后比较接近。当时2008年全球金融危机之后各国放水，带来了一波明显的通胀与资产价格重建；2018年类似的情况发生，随后各国货币宽松，直到疫情期间，放水达到高潮。</p>\n<p>2008-2010，以及2018-2020，这两轮宽松周期类似，都是朱格拉周期中的第一个库存周期。现在是第一库存周期结束前的状态。而进入第二库存周期的触发因素，必须要有新的资本开支目标，说白了，要有至少一个“风口行业”。就上一轮第二库存周期而言，当时的风口就是“大众创业万众创新”、共享经济、小额信贷、以及P2P，当然棚改也算一个。</p>\n<p>这一轮有望启动第二库存周期的技术因素，包括数字货币、物联网、区块链、云计算、新能源、自动驾驶、芯片技术、生物医药等。因此，下一阶段的关注点，应该放到这些“新概念”上面。</p>\n<p>这些“新概念”里面，必定会跑出一大批公司，也会有更大一批公司在残酷的竞争中消亡。到那些跑出的公司开始兑现盈利，形成所谓的一批新的白马股，此时，周期时钟就会敲响第三库存周期。至此，一轮朱格拉资本开支周期走完，酝酿下一场金融危机，时间也许是2030年前后。那时是最后一次检验周金涛预言的时刻。</p>\n<p>按照康波周期的理论，2020-2030这十年，是中国为主导的全球资本开支与技术扩张周期。这期间中国将复刻美国1987到1999的牛市。<b>这是我们长期看多中国股市的原因。</b></p>\n<p><b>5、</b><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>扯远了，还是重复我之前的观点：</p>\n<p><b>只有大多数人不相信是牛市，才是慢牛行情。</b></p>\n<p>“在一次疯狂行情中跑步进场，闭着眼买，不久后被套，然后骂一辈子中国股市。”——这是我跟一个朋友聊天中，提及中国散户亏钱的永恒模式。</p>\n<p>所以，在这波大行情马上来临之际，我还是衷心希望慢一点，别太着急了。不然超级IPO那天，再复刻7月16那天的行情，今年也基本上就交待了。<b>恕我心直口快，如果让大多数股民永远重复这种被收割的模式，在一片怨毒之中，A股多少年也走不出慢牛行情。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139235771","content_text":"先吃一个瓜。\n9月20日，国金证券与国联证券筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。\n“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！金融界一篇沸腾！\n事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原因是尾盘阶段消息已经走漏，资金纷纷抢筹把股价拉上了涨停。\n\n然而等来的是……\n昨晚，国联证券与国金证券发布公告，称终止筹划重大重组，明日复牌。当然复牌之后并没有双双跌停，国联跌了5.9%，国金证券收涨2.8%，盘中一度还冲击涨停。\n对此猜测纷纭。\n有人说是监管层要给突然火爆的行情降降温，但我看更像是一次演砸了的乌龙事件。值得一提的是，从7月份行情突然火爆以来，关于金融机构合并的传闻一直在炒，但到目前为止，没有一个成真的。\n究其根源，今年以来金融板块实在是太惨了，估值低到残，也只能炒并购重组做做股价了。对于这种传闻，我向来的态度都是：不要当真。一当真你就输了。\n这两只证券股从合并传闻到最后终止的过程，似乎开了个善意的玩笑（毕竟没跌太狠），但似乎也预示着，这波行情后面还有多少个大雷等着股民。现在天天烈火烹油、收复跌幅、群里收个红包、账户价值创新高……凶残的一面也许就要来了。\n1、翻多\n黄金周过后，A股行情迅速升温。以9月30日收盘价计算，到今日收盘，上证综指累计涨幅已经为4.4%，沪深300为5.49%，创业板指涨幅更是高达8.15%！\n黄金周之前，股市一片惨淡，从7月中旬到9月底，两个半月凄凄惨惨戚戚。沪深300还勉强算是在高位震荡，\n\n创业板指则是一浪低过一浪，一副区间下行的熊样儿。\n\n分析师则是，节前一副忧心忡忡的样子。“谨慎看多”、“震荡为主”、“年内难有大行情”，说的跟真的似的。然而，黄金周一过，立马两样了。过去说三根阳线改变信仰，现在来看，改变信仰，一根阳线就够了。\n2、大涨原因\n大涨还是有原因的。在我看来有三点。\n首先是川普确诊新冠肺炎利空出尽，叠加拜登民调持续走高，外部风险因素有望缓和。\n其次是黄金周期间外盘与港股持续大涨，情绪面得到修复。据统计，港股恒生指数在黄金周期间累计涨幅为5%，恒生科技指数累计涨幅9.33%，超过A股创业板指！\n\n第三，可能与“国七条”（《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》）的发布有关。\n有分析把此次的这个“国七条”与2004年的“国九条”以及2014年的“新国九条”相比。那两次之后都爆发了烈火烹油般的大行情，但随后高空坠落更加恐怖。2006年的牛市之后，上证从6214点跌到1664点；2015年的牛市之后，上证从5187跌到2638。\n最近看到一份统计数据，2015年的大行情，85%的人是亏钱的，总共亏损2500亿！而赚钱的只有不到0.5%，其中包括一些机构、以及特别牛逼的散户和个人。来得快、去得更快的“疯牛”，是不折不扣的财富绞肉机！\n所以，这次如果再搞出2006或2015的那种大牛市，我只能说，呵呵了。\n3、复刻七月行情？\n但人心思涨，是很难克服的人性现象。\n一片悲观的情绪中，某个原因，或者不知道是什么原因，突然引爆行情，持续大涨，成交量放大——这种现象在A股并不少见。\n是的，刚刚过去的7月初就上演过一次。\n当时也是经历了一个节假日，行情突然被引爆，配合几乎所有分析员、媒体、自媒体、雪球大V疯狂唱多。开户量激增，券商App宕机，散户韭菜跑步进场……\n但几天之后人们就发现，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。7月16日，超级巨大的IPO登场，抽水机开动，市场一根大阴线干下来，后面剩下的就是震荡，方向全无……\n这次，节假日情绪突然转暖，行情突然火爆，持续大涨，分析员媒体大V集体唱多，这几条因素已经具备。成交量放大、散户跑步进场、以及券商App宕机还没出现。过几天就会出现。\n过了一个假期，如果说有什么改变了，唯一能够改变的就是人们出门旅游，看到许多地方人满为患，表明经济并不是那么差，人们还愿意消费，舍得花钱，所以对经济、乃至对股市的信心增强了。\n还有更重要的，这次也有一个超级巨大的IPO在后面等着……\n也许，这个超级巨大的IPO登场之日，就是这波行情到头之时。话不能说得这么死，但得多加个小心。\n4、后市怎么看\n先说结论：短期看多，中期看淡，长期看多。\n短期看多，指的是那个超级IPO之前，市场一定是大涨的，原理参照7月初。\n中期看淡，指的是3到6个月内，大行情的可能性不大。为什么？首先是疫情。今天青岛又发现本地确诊病例了，从5月份北京新发地疫情被扑灭，中国大陆本土疫情可以说已经完结了。但青岛又出现了，说明这个病毒极其难以彻底根治。此外全球还在一天大几万的蹭蹭蹭增加，中国很难风景这边独好。\n其次是货币与宏观条件。此前为应对疫情各国放了太多的水，目前货币宏观收紧已经是各国的共识，中国是这一轮最早退出货币宽松的国家。货币收紧的前提下，出现普涨大行情的概率很低。\n此外对于外资流入。前期人民币快速升值，外资流入较快。现在央行下调外汇风险准备金率，对于抑制做多人民币的投机有一定作用。虽然很难说人民币从此进入下行通道，但最起码外资流入的势头会收紧。这也不利于形成股市大行情。\n从周期的角度，目前的宏观、货币、进出口、房地产、金融市场的处境与2010年4月出台“国十条”前后比较接近。当时2008年全球金融危机之后各国放水，带来了一波明显的通胀与资产价格重建；2018年类似的情况发生，随后各国货币宽松，直到疫情期间，放水达到高潮。\n2008-2010，以及2018-2020，这两轮宽松周期类似，都是朱格拉周期中的第一个库存周期。现在是第一库存周期结束前的状态。而进入第二库存周期的触发因素，必须要有新的资本开支目标，说白了，要有至少一个“风口行业”。就上一轮第二库存周期而言，当时的风口就是“大众创业万众创新”、共享经济、小额信贷、以及P2P，当然棚改也算一个。\n这一轮有望启动第二库存周期的技术因素，包括数字货币、物联网、区块链、云计算、新能源、自动驾驶、芯片技术、生物医药等。因此，下一阶段的关注点，应该放到这些“新概念”上面。\n这些“新概念”里面，必定会跑出一大批公司，也会有更大一批公司在残酷的竞争中消亡。到那些跑出的公司开始兑现盈利，形成所谓的一批新的白马股，此时，周期时钟就会敲响第三库存周期。至此，一轮朱格拉资本开支周期走完，酝酿下一场金融危机，时间也许是2030年前后。那时是最后一次检验周金涛预言的时刻。\n按照康波周期的理论，2020-2030这十年，是中国为主导的全球资本开支与技术扩张周期。这期间中国将复刻美国1987到1999的牛市。这是我们长期看多中国股市的原因。\n5、结论\n扯远了，还是重复我之前的观点：\n只有大多数人不相信是牛市，才是慢牛行情。\n“在一次疯狂行情中跑步进场，闭着眼买，不久后被套，然后骂一辈子中国股市。”——这是我跟一个朋友聊天中，提及中国散户亏钱的永恒模式。\n所以，在这波大行情马上来临之际，我还是衷心希望慢一点，别太着急了。不然超级IPO那天，再复刻7月16那天的行情，今年也基本上就交待了。恕我心直口快，如果让大多数股民永远重复这种被收割的模式，在一片怨毒之中，A股多少年也走不出慢牛行情。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":948549779,"gmtCreate":1595428279791,"gmtModify":1704208965236,"author":{"id":"232057868559264","authorId":"232057868559264","name":"牛王紫东","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c689aed776082cebeca8a9155ca4cf","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"232057868559264","authorIdStr":"232057868559264"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>赶快到118，准备了一万刀全仓call你","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">$百度(BIDU)$</a>赶快到118，准备了一万刀全仓call你","text":"$百度(BIDU)$赶快到118，准备了一万刀全仓call你","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/948549779","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3244,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}