小白相的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小白相

小白相

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IP属地：上海

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10主题

0勋章

06-29

拼图比找茬有难度[开心]

06-29

难道每个人看到的图片还不一样？

05-01

@捷克Jack 这里面是什么礼物？

01-10

$签字银行(SBNY)$ 纪念下

01-02

$签字银行(SBNY)$ 纪念下第一个80倍

2023-12-29

$签字银行(SBNY)$ 觉得粉单市场股票的交易权应该交给投资者自己决定的请点赞。

2023-12-28

$签字银行(SBNY)$ 记录下，第一次50倍

2023-12-28

$签字银行(SBNY)$

2023-11-05

只是谁的骗局编的更好而已

桥水，是一个“庞氏骗局”？官方回应了

2023-05-02

华尔街见闻就发这种新闻？

美国国债违约，最快6月1日？！

2022-08-18

得先有2750万美元，这还没算交易费

靠“散户概念股”，美国一大学生狂赚1.1亿美元

2021-11-12

$赫兹租车(HTZ)$请问赫兹退市前的期权现在怎么处理的？老虎能不能发个官方说明？

2021-11-12

$HTZZ1(HTZZ1)$赫兹全球上市了，新的期权何时能在持仓显示？

2021-10-07

$Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.(HTZZ)$按图内的测算，岂不是现在期权价值12美元？

2021-09-24

交易3000多辆车能营收接近3个亿？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-10

$Yalla Group(YALA)$流通股2.1亿，回购计划1.5亿。啥不好学，学万科。

2021-08-06

$AMC院线(AMC)$财报后看情况再说，真不知道为何这么多人加入赴死队

2021-07-13

老虎不是活动期间送L2行情么？现在不送了？

2021-07-06

$Hertz Global Holdings, Inc.(HTZZ)$买的明年的期权现在怎么处理？

2021-07-02

$赫兹(HTZZ1)$第一个15倍收益

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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纪念下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4c661a623c213c83db4f0f79ee71c4","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/261460057821256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3528519580794903","authorId":"3528519580794903","name":"大花猫咪","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3528519580794903","authorIdStr":"3528519580794903"},"content":"0.02的时候还能买到啊","text":"0.02的时候还能买到啊","html":"0.02的时候还能买到啊"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":258774970372264,"gmtCreate":1704207456711,"gmtModify":1704207582594,"author":{"id":"17720688041184","authorId":"17720688041184","name":"小白相","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a470e7ef2e9a1acebb3ad056c998d826","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"17720688041184","authorIdStr":"17720688041184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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纪念下第一个80倍","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/629c4225256a1a86bac9ab563bb709d3","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/258774970372264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4110759925732950","authorId":"4110759925732950","name":"小明GSD","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07b07563879a7a2b41de92184d4a01d","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4110759925732950","authorIdStr":"4110759925732950"},"content":"你们怎么买的，为啥现在我不能买这票","text":"你们怎么买的，为啥现在我不能买这票","html":"你们怎么买的，为啥现在我不能买这票"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":257114657980712,"gmtCreate":1703805742375,"gmtModify":1703814775459,"author":{"id":"17720688041184","authorId":"17720688041184","name":"小白相","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a470e7ef2e9a1acebb3ad056c998d826","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"17720688041184","authorIdStr":"17720688041184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">$签字银行(SBNY)$&nbsp;</a>记录下，第一次50倍","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBNY\">$签字银行(SBNY)$&nbsp;</a>记录下，第一次50倍","text":"$签字银行(SBNY)$ 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17:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"桥水，是一个“庞氏骗局”？官方回应了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125500911","media":"海外对冲","summary":"桥水并没有自己标榜的那么机构化、量化、高端大气。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>近日，供职于美国《纽约时报》的金融记者罗布.科普兰(Rob Copeland)所著名为《The Fund》的新书正式发售，书中指出，桥水对外宣称的投资体系只是一场精心构建的骗局。对此，桥水中国相关人士最新回应记者称：<strong>“该书整体情节十分荒谬，且与事实相去甚远。该书试图用夸张的描述攻击抹黑我们，它通过一系列拼凑的故事，塑造了一个扭曲、失真的形象。这是对我们公司、企业文化以及公司群体虚假且具有误导性的刻画。”</strong>（中证报）</p><p>罗布.科普兰直指Bridgewater是个旁氏局，他的书名叫<strong>&#34;The Fund&#34;</strong>(“&lt;<em>那个基金：达里欧，桥水以及一个华尔街传奇的解体”</em>&gt;)。这是一本未经Ray Dalio本人授权的外传,书商给此书的归类是：non-fictional thriller (非小说类惊悚故事), 实在令人遐想。作者罗布.科普兰于2022年底加入《纽约时报》，担任金融记者，此前他在《华尔街日报》担任了近十年的调查记者,屡获大奖。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/941a01130bcb359ccfa1f9f501b81a74\" title=\"《The Fund》封面\" tg-width=\"711\" tg-height=\"1080\"/><span>《The Fund》封面</span></p><p>为了给新书造势，纽约时报发了长文，揭露了作者对桥水的一系列质疑，主要是暗示桥水并没有自己标榜的那么机构化、量化、高端大气，其实全是达里欧一个人全程在做(ad-hoc)临时起意的决策，桥水的文化也被作者大加鞭挞。纽时的这篇报道里暗示了桥水的收益和投资方法不明不白，还引用了一个曾戳破麦道夫旁氏骗局的记者好几次，有意无意把读者往那个方向引。 </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e3badd595a17cbac2b0120922a0bbec\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"706\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时， 各大书店渠道对此书的介绍也真狠：“华尔街著名对冲基金经理Ray Dalio未经授权、未经洗白的故事”，“Ray Dalio不会想让你读这本书。”Copeland多年来一直在《华尔街日报》报道桥水的轶事，他已经让Dalio这位大师兼哲学家多次愤怒。下面是此书的官方介绍：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>“去年年底，当地球上最大的对冲基金桥水的亿万富翁创始人宣布他将从近50年前从公寓创办的公司隐退时，这则消息成为了全世界的头条新闻。Dalio凭借其公司令人瞠目的成功，伴以他经常在媒体上露面、大众的名人迷恋情结以及畅销书《原则》所暗中鼓励的神秘感，为其培养了一种饱含国际名声和崇拜的光环。在本书中，获奖记者《纽约时报》的罗伯·科普兰揭露了围绕这位仁慈的商业巨头的精心叙事，揭露了他大力宣传的“原则”实则是当代记忆中one of the great feats of hubris(狂妄自大），这些原则鼓励了一种偏执和背后中伤的有毒文化。</em></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>....</em></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>对于任何相信赚钱能力与释放人性有关的人来说，这是一个警示故事。（暗讽达里欧的名著“原则”提供了赚钱秘方）”</em></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意思就是说要扒掉完美的包装，揭露桥水那看似玄而又玄、极其系统化、量化成分爆表、哲学思维充盈的投资策略，指出其实只是Ray凭个人意志的随机出手。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">要说桥水是不是有点奇怪，确实有点。Ray像个高僧一样云里雾里，谈的都是上下五百年的事情，格局太大。以至于昨天这篇文章直指桥水的钱不知道是咋挣的。纽时的证据有一箩筐：</p><ul style=\"list-style-type: circle;\"><li><p>比如偌大的公司只有20%的人是投资团队，其他是经济学者、营销等等。</p></li><li><p>再比如以他家的天量资金，应该进出市场每次都带来腥风血雨，但交易对手没有感受到来自桥水的阴风阵阵。</p></li><li><p>再比如2015年潘兴广场的大嗓门Bill Ackman和达利欧曾同台做Panel, 前者认真请教后者如何管理这一千多亿的盘子，然而Ray言之无物或者顾左右而言他，离谱到让Ackman几乎口吐芬芳。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">你可以说Ray对自己在干什么讳莫如深，但是熟悉咱公众号的都知道，宏观基金就那些武器，Ray也不可能揪着自己头发脱离地球。无非是通过对世界上某个经济体的研究(通常是US, UK, EU, JP还有EM)来预判对方央行的动作。因为凡央行就会被两条锁链捆着：一个是压通胀，一个保增长，而且他们还经常预测失败，behind the curve。所以无非就是对某国利率做判断，用多空国债期货，或者做利率互换swap来表达观点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">桥水成为宣泄不满的目标，可能还是因为Ray一副先知的自我定位让行业内记者产生了疑心，他实在太反常了。从微观的角度看，没有任何一例桥水走出来的PM另立门户新创基金，说明他是没有人才梯队的，他的亲近内部圈子管理层很可能并不是做投资的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">树大招风，这黑料一爆，媒体也是一片嘲讽。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">9月7日，有媒体报导Ray聘请了一群高价律师威胁此书的出版，媒体用了个颇为讽刺的题目：“宣扬radical transparency“极度透明”（名著“原则”里的第一原则）的大佬要让记者封口”, 因为“坊间传说这本有可能摧毁世界上最大最成功的对冲基金，并造成数十亿美元的损失。”        </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">桥水的律师Tom Clare很有来头， 专门代表金主让媒体封口, 成功案例不少。他不仅代表了Dalio，还代表了城堡的格里芬。律师称这本书“充满了半真半假、失真和彻头彻尾的谎言”, “作者错误地把桥水和Dalio先生描绘成一个骗子。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">下面是桥水公关部的指控，从指控我们可以省流省钱得到此书到底在写什么。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>“书中暗示，桥水是一个庞氏骗局。”</em></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>“作者竭力描绘了一个资产管理公司的错误形象，他的交易策略是随机的，并有内幕消息。”</em></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>这本书的内容“严重扭曲了桥水业务的核心内容——甚至在某些地方错误地暗示了严重的不当犯罪行为。”</em></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其实桥水不太可能是个旁氏骗局。为什么这么说？因为他的收益稳健，而且符合宏观基金的应有表现。如果是旁氏肯定要做得比这个更吸引人，更绝对收益一些。最近十年的业绩如下：    </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pure Alpha II (数据完全来自网络采集)</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2013</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2014</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2015</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2016</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2017</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2018</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2019</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2020</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2021</strong></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p><strong>2022</strong></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.46</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2.48</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>3.34</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>2</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>1.25</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>14.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-0.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>-12.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>8</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>6*</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">*截至11月</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据完全来自于网络，可能也混淆了PA I和PA II，但是细究数字也没必要，大概知道他最leverage的产品，10年总收益不到30%就可以。这个年化肯定是大大低于其96年起算的年化的（Pure Alpha 历史年化11.5% - Institutional Investor Jan.7/2020），也说明以前的日子确实很猛。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从年度表现来看，基本体现了央行放水之后的十年，市场vol被人为压低，宏观基金无事可做的十年。本来应该大赚特赚的20-22年，桥水的综合表现为零，主要是2020年没弄好。其实这些表现也不意外，这么大规模的基金卖的就是uncorrelatedness, 而不是表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果你觉得1300亿美元的管理规模太惊人，不妨类比一下工商银行。工行过去十年每年也能给你2%，那存款规模可比桥水大不少（5万亿人民币，7100多亿美元）。        </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有没有可能桥水的投资者在读了这本书后，赎回AUM1,250亿美元左右的资产中的大部分？应该不太可能。有巨资聘请的律师的监督，作者又是得奖的严肃大报记者，那么书中编造事实的可能性很低。更多可能是作者借助大量前员工和利益相关人士的口述，构建出一种暗示和指责，替前员工发泄下对Dalio先知气质的不满。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我想起2012年也有一本让高盛坐立不安的畅销书: Why I Left Goldman Sachs。那时候高盛还没走出GFC期间民众对华尔街的怨恨，而高盛更是因为Lloyd一句“I am doing God’s job”招致了更多鞭挞，公司的形象基本被总结成吸血章鱼。那时候一本书名这么符合大众口味的书真是好卖。但其实打开一看，七成都是感念自己在高盛的经历的。所以最有可能的情况是，这本书的出版对桥水的管理规模根本没有任何影响。        </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">时间回到2015年初那次尴尬的Ackman vs. Dalio巅峰对话，本以为是神仙打架，结果满屏尴尬。在那次对话中，Ackman是主持，Dalio接受采访。不管Ackman聊什么，Dalio都回到自己用系统、大数据和量化做决策。那时桥水1650亿规模，员工1500多人，搞120个市场的rates, commodity, FX, equities；潘兴180亿规模，9个人, 搞十个标的。Dalio强调自己把所有的信息都分解、输入到系统里，用“rules”来做决策。Ackman回答，他自己完全相反，他不相信完全依靠数字和系统。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">所以如果这本新书揭示了桥水的决策其实都是Dalio一个人的随机直觉，那么还是挺打脸的。我想起当年我们公司有一个神秘的套利产品，说是来自纽约总部的秘方IP，当时开放的floor上专门给这个PM开了个小单间，意思是IP要保护起来。那时我开单心切，想带客户参观一下神秘小屋和“系统”，壮壮声势。老板把我拉到一边，再三思忖建议我不要展示了，因为那个“系统”其实就是PM电脑上的一个excel。有时候听见太玄乎的东西，也就听听得了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dalio还说自己同时做15个uncorrelated的bets, Ackman问了我们所有人都应该问的问题：你咋知道这些trade之间是uncorrelated? 这时Dalio给了个仙气十足的回答：相关性是一个结果，而其自身并不是个东西 “correlation is an outcome, not a thing in itself”。显然这样的回答能让普通听众不明觉厉，赞叹不已，深思好几天，并贴到朋友圈。但这个回答让Ackman非常不满，也许他怀疑Dalio其实不知道他的15个bets是否真的互不相关。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后Ackman问Dalio，那你怎么选老婆的？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dalio：“激情！”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ackman: “你如何量化激情？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dalio: “我确实想过这么干&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ackman:“噢，那你老婆是个computer吗？”   显然Bill Ackman已经不耐烦了。   </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Disclaimer:</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本文内容来自互联网，数据主要来自纽约时报，Swissquote, 雅虎财经和Institutional Investor，数据未经审计。复述The Fund一书以及NY Times文章对桥水的描述和结论不代表作者意见。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1679407622567","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>桥水，是一个“庞氏骗局”？官方回应了</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n桥水，是一个“庞氏骗局”？官方回应了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-11-08 17:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yLJliaGmLyEbmSFrEyC6_A><strong>海外对冲</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，供职于美国《纽约时报》的金融记者罗布.科普兰(Rob Copeland)所著名为《The Fund》的新书正式发售，书中指出，桥水对外宣称的投资体系只是一场精心构建的骗局。对此，桥水中国相关人士最新回应记者称：“该书整体情节十分荒谬，且与事实相去甚远。该书试图用夸张的描述攻击抹黑我们，它通过一系列拼凑的故事，塑造了一个扭曲、失真的形象。这是对我们公司、企业文化以及公司群体虚假且具有误导性的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yLJliaGmLyEbmSFrEyC6_A\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07c35d485f8c8051f75d125c8334ebf8","relate_stocks":{"BWB":"Bridgewater Bancshares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yLJliaGmLyEbmSFrEyC6_A","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125500911","content_text":"近日，供职于美国《纽约时报》的金融记者罗布.科普兰(Rob Copeland)所著名为《The Fund》的新书正式发售，书中指出，桥水对外宣称的投资体系只是一场精心构建的骗局。对此，桥水中国相关人士最新回应记者称：“该书整体情节十分荒谬，且与事实相去甚远。该书试图用夸张的描述攻击抹黑我们，它通过一系列拼凑的故事，塑造了一个扭曲、失真的形象。这是对我们公司、企业文化以及公司群体虚假且具有误导性的刻画。”（中证报）罗布.科普兰直指Bridgewater是个旁氏局，他的书名叫\"The Fund\"(“<那个基金：达里欧，桥水以及一个华尔街传奇的解体”>)。这是一本未经Ray Dalio本人授权的外传,书商给此书的归类是：non-fictional thriller (非小说类惊悚故事), 实在令人遐想。作者罗布.科普兰于2022年底加入《纽约时报》，担任金融记者，此前他在《华尔街日报》担任了近十年的调查记者,屡获大奖。《The Fund》封面为了给新书造势，纽约时报发了长文，揭露了作者对桥水的一系列质疑，主要是暗示桥水并没有自己标榜的那么机构化、量化、高端大气，其实全是达里欧一个人全程在做(ad-hoc)临时起意的决策，桥水的文化也被作者大加鞭挞。纽时的这篇报道里暗示了桥水的收益和投资方法不明不白，还引用了一个曾戳破麦道夫旁氏骗局的记者好几次，有意无意把读者往那个方向引。 同时， 各大书店渠道对此书的介绍也真狠：“华尔街著名对冲基金经理Ray Dalio未经授权、未经洗白的故事”，“Ray Dalio不会想让你读这本书。”Copeland多年来一直在《华尔街日报》报道桥水的轶事，他已经让Dalio这位大师兼哲学家多次愤怒。下面是此书的官方介绍：“去年年底，当地球上最大的对冲基金桥水的亿万富翁创始人宣布他将从近50年前从公寓创办的公司隐退时，这则消息成为了全世界的头条新闻。Dalio凭借其公司令人瞠目的成功，伴以他经常在媒体上露面、大众的名人迷恋情结以及畅销书《原则》所暗中鼓励的神秘感，为其培养了一种饱含国际名声和崇拜的光环。在本书中，获奖记者《纽约时报》的罗伯·科普兰揭露了围绕这位仁慈的商业巨头的精心叙事，揭露了他大力宣传的“原则”实则是当代记忆中one of the great feats of hubris(狂妄自大），这些原则鼓励了一种偏执和背后中伤的有毒文化。....对于任何相信赚钱能力与释放人性有关的人来说，这是一个警示故事。（暗讽达里欧的名著“原则”提供了赚钱秘方）”这意思就是说要扒掉完美的包装，揭露桥水那看似玄而又玄、极其系统化、量化成分爆表、哲学思维充盈的投资策略，指出其实只是Ray凭个人意志的随机出手。要说桥水是不是有点奇怪，确实有点。Ray像个高僧一样云里雾里，谈的都是上下五百年的事情，格局太大。以至于昨天这篇文章直指桥水的钱不知道是咋挣的。纽时的证据有一箩筐：比如偌大的公司只有20%的人是投资团队，其他是经济学者、营销等等。再比如以他家的天量资金，应该进出市场每次都带来腥风血雨，但交易对手没有感受到来自桥水的阴风阵阵。再比如2015年潘兴广场的大嗓门Bill Ackman和达利欧曾同台做Panel, 前者认真请教后者如何管理这一千多亿的盘子，然而Ray言之无物或者顾左右而言他，离谱到让Ackman几乎口吐芬芳。你可以说Ray对自己在干什么讳莫如深，但是熟悉咱公众号的都知道，宏观基金就那些武器，Ray也不可能揪着自己头发脱离地球。无非是通过对世界上某个经济体的研究(通常是US, UK, EU, JP还有EM)来预判对方央行的动作。因为凡央行就会被两条锁链捆着：一个是压通胀，一个保增长，而且他们还经常预测失败，behind the curve。所以无非就是对某国利率做判断，用多空国债期货，或者做利率互换swap来表达观点。桥水成为宣泄不满的目标，可能还是因为Ray一副先知的自我定位让行业内记者产生了疑心，他实在太反常了。从微观的角度看，没有任何一例桥水走出来的PM另立门户新创基金，说明他是没有人才梯队的，他的亲近内部圈子管理层很可能并不是做投资的。树大招风，这黑料一爆，媒体也是一片嘲讽。9月7日，有媒体报导Ray聘请了一群高价律师威胁此书的出版，媒体用了个颇为讽刺的题目：“宣扬radical transparency“极度透明”（名著“原则”里的第一原则）的大佬要让记者封口”, 因为“坊间传说这本有可能摧毁世界上最大最成功的对冲基金，并造成数十亿美元的损失。”        桥水的律师Tom Clare很有来头， 专门代表金主让媒体封口, 成功案例不少。他不仅代表了Dalio，还代表了城堡的格里芬。律师称这本书“充满了半真半假、失真和彻头彻尾的谎言”, “作者错误地把桥水和Dalio先生描绘成一个骗子。”下面是桥水公关部的指控，从指控我们可以省流省钱得到此书到底在写什么。“书中暗示，桥水是一个庞氏骗局。”“作者竭力描绘了一个资产管理公司的错误形象，他的交易策略是随机的，并有内幕消息。”这本书的内容“严重扭曲了桥水业务的核心内容——甚至在某些地方错误地暗示了严重的不当犯罪行为。”其实桥水不太可能是个旁氏骗局。为什么这么说？因为他的收益稳健，而且符合宏观基金的应有表现。如果是旁氏肯定要做得比这个更吸引人，更绝对收益一些。最近十年的业绩如下：    Pure Alpha II (数据完全来自网络采集)20132014201520162017201820192020202120223.462.483.3421.2514.6-0.5-12.686**截至11月数据完全来自于网络，可能也混淆了PA I和PA II，但是细究数字也没必要，大概知道他最leverage的产品，10年总收益不到30%就可以。这个年化肯定是大大低于其96年起算的年化的（Pure Alpha 历史年化11.5% - Institutional Investor Jan.7/2020），也说明以前的日子确实很猛。从年度表现来看，基本体现了央行放水之后的十年，市场vol被人为压低，宏观基金无事可做的十年。本来应该大赚特赚的20-22年，桥水的综合表现为零，主要是2020年没弄好。其实这些表现也不意外，这么大规模的基金卖的就是uncorrelatedness, 而不是表现。如果你觉得1300亿美元的管理规模太惊人，不妨类比一下工商银行。工行过去十年每年也能给你2%，那存款规模可比桥水大不少（5万亿人民币，7100多亿美元）。        有没有可能桥水的投资者在读了这本书后，赎回AUM1,250亿美元左右的资产中的大部分？应该不太可能。有巨资聘请的律师的监督，作者又是得奖的严肃大报记者，那么书中编造事实的可能性很低。更多可能是作者借助大量前员工和利益相关人士的口述，构建出一种暗示和指责，替前员工发泄下对Dalio先知气质的不满。我想起2012年也有一本让高盛坐立不安的畅销书: Why I Left Goldman Sachs。那时候高盛还没走出GFC期间民众对华尔街的怨恨，而高盛更是因为Lloyd一句“I am doing God’s job”招致了更多鞭挞，公司的形象基本被总结成吸血章鱼。那时候一本书名这么符合大众口味的书真是好卖。但其实打开一看，七成都是感念自己在高盛的经历的。所以最有可能的情况是，这本书的出版对桥水的管理规模根本没有任何影响。        时间回到2015年初那次尴尬的Ackman vs. Dalio巅峰对话，本以为是神仙打架，结果满屏尴尬。在那次对话中，Ackman是主持，Dalio接受采访。不管Ackman聊什么，Dalio都回到自己用系统、大数据和量化做决策。那时桥水1650亿规模，员工1500多人，搞120个市场的rates, commodity, FX, equities；潘兴180亿规模，9个人, 搞十个标的。Dalio强调自己把所有的信息都分解、输入到系统里，用“rules”来做决策。Ackman回答，他自己完全相反，他不相信完全依靠数字和系统。所以如果这本新书揭示了桥水的决策其实都是Dalio一个人的随机直觉，那么还是挺打脸的。我想起当年我们公司有一个神秘的套利产品，说是来自纽约总部的秘方IP，当时开放的floor上专门给这个PM开了个小单间，意思是IP要保护起来。那时我开单心切，想带客户参观一下神秘小屋和“系统”，壮壮声势。老板把我拉到一边，再三思忖建议我不要展示了，因为那个“系统”其实就是PM电脑上的一个excel。有时候听见太玄乎的东西，也就听听得了。Dalio还说自己同时做15个uncorrelated的bets, Ackman问了我们所有人都应该问的问题：你咋知道这些trade之间是uncorrelated? 这时Dalio给了个仙气十足的回答：相关性是一个结果，而其自身并不是个东西 “correlation is an outcome, not a thing in itself”。显然这样的回答能让普通听众不明觉厉，赞叹不已，深思好几天，并贴到朋友圈。但这个回答让Ackman非常不满，也许他怀疑Dalio其实不知道他的15个bets是否真的互不相关。最后Ackman问Dalio，那你怎么选老婆的？Dalio：“激情！”Ackman: “你如何量化激情？”Dalio: “我确实想过这么干\"Ackman:“噢，那你老婆是个computer吗？”   显然Bill Ackman已经不耐烦了。   Disclaimer:本文内容来自互联网，数据主要来自纽约时报，Swissquote, 雅虎财经和Institutional Investor，数据未经审计。复述The Fund一书以及NY Times文章对桥水的描述和结论不代表作者意见。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":658424377,"gmtCreate":1683009989599,"gmtModify":1683009991212,"author":{"id":"17720688041184","authorId":"17720688041184","name":"小白相","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a470e7ef2e9a1acebb3ad056c998d826","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"17720688041184","authorIdStr":"17720688041184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华尔街见闻就发这种新闻？","listText":"华尔街见闻就发这种新闻？","text":"华尔街见闻就发这种新闻？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/658424377","repostId":"1157384668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157384668","pubTimestamp":1682995699,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157384668?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-02 10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国国债违约，最快6月1日？！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157384668","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"如果国会无法提高或暂停债务上限，财政部可能在6月很快用完现金。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：曹泽熙</p><p>5月1日周一，美国财政部长耶伦警告国会称，如果国会无法提高或暂停债务上限，财政部可能在6月很快用完现金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">耶伦在致众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡和两党其他国会领导人的信中称：</p><blockquote>我们的最佳估计是，到6月初，我们将无法继续履行政府的所有义务，最早可能在6月1日 。鉴于收入和支出流量时不稳定的，财政部用尽非常措施的实际日期可能比这些估计晚数周。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">她在信中表示，之所以在一个月之后财政部就可能耗尽现金，其中重要的一个原因是最近税收收入放缓。</p><p><strong>详细了解：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/658432828\" title=\"下注美国债务违约，能赚2400%？千年难遇的大机会到底怎么回事\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">下注美国债务违约，能赚2400%？千年难遇的大机会到底怎么回事</a></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自1月触及目前31.4万亿美元的法定上限以来，美国财政部一直在通过使用特殊的会计操作来避免可能发生的联邦债务违约。耶伦新提供的时间表反映了美国财政部有关这一回旋空间何时可能耗尽的最新想法。她在1月曾表示，特殊措施“不太可能”在6月初之前用完。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">耶伦在信中说：</p><blockquote>在我1月13日的信中，我指出现金和特殊会计操作措施不太可能在6月初之前用尽。在审查了最近的联邦税收收入后，我们的最佳估计是，如果国会不在此之前提高或暂停债务限额，我们将无法在6月初之前继续履行政府的所有义务，并且可能最早在6月1日就触及债务上限。这一估计是基于目前可用的数据，因为联邦收入和支出是可变的，而财政部用尽特别会计操作措施的实际日期可能比这些估计晚数周。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，耶伦表示，为避免超出债务上限，财政部暂停发行州和地方政府系列（SLGS）国债：</p><blockquote>SLGS是发行给各州和市政当局的特殊用途国债，以帮助它们遵守某些税收规则。当财政部发行SLGS时，它们将计入债务限额。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场分析认为，此举将剥夺“州和地方政府管理财务的重要工具”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后，像往常一样，耶伦在信中恳求国会两党尽快达成债务上限协议：</p><blockquote>我们从过去的债务上限僵局中了解到，等到最后一刻才暂停或提高债务上限可能会对企业和消费者信心造成严重损害，提高纳税人的短期借贷成本，并对美国的信用评级产生负面影响。如果国会不提高债务上限，将给美国家庭带来严重困难，损害我们的全球地位，并引发对我们捍卫国家安全利益能力的质疑。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，周一早些时候，财政部公布了对今年二季度和三季度最新债务借款估计。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e824faee46de0bb80fb3689a85ed65e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据历史数据，财政部指出，在2023年第一季度，财政部借贷6570亿美元，该季度末现金余额为1780亿美元。 这与今年1月做出的预测有巨大差异，当时财政部估计借款为9320亿美元，并预计3月底的现金余额为5000亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于今年二季度，美国财政部预计将接入7260亿美元的新债务，二季度末的现金余额为5500亿美元；对于三季度，美国财政部预计将借入7330亿美元的债务，三季度末现金余额为6000亿美元。不过，这些假设的前提都是美国两党能够就增加或废除债务上限达成协议。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国国债违约，最快6月1日？！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国国债违约，最快6月1日？！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-02 10:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687824><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：曹泽熙5月1日周一，美国财政部长耶伦警告国会称，如果国会无法提高或暂停债务上限，财政部可能在6月很快用完现金。耶伦在致众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡和两党其他国会领导人的信中称：我们的最佳估计是，到6月初，我们将无法继续履行政府的所有义务，最早可能在6月1日 。鉴于收入和支出流量时不稳定的，财政部用尽非常措施的实际日期可能比这些估计晚数周。她在信中表示，之所以在一个月之后财政部就可能耗尽现金，其中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687824\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe8ba21c8b5ac2b562fdf822ed7fcb2","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687824","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1157384668","content_text":"作者：曹泽熙5月1日周一，美国财政部长耶伦警告国会称，如果国会无法提高或暂停债务上限，财政部可能在6月很快用完现金。耶伦在致众议院议长凯文·麦卡锡和两党其他国会领导人的信中称：我们的最佳估计是，到6月初，我们将无法继续履行政府的所有义务，最早可能在6月1日 。鉴于收入和支出流量时不稳定的，财政部用尽非常措施的实际日期可能比这些估计晚数周。她在信中表示，之所以在一个月之后财政部就可能耗尽现金，其中重要的一个原因是最近税收收入放缓。详细了解：下注美国债务违约，能赚2400%？千年难遇的大机会到底怎么回事自1月触及目前31.4万亿美元的法定上限以来，美国财政部一直在通过使用特殊的会计操作来避免可能发生的联邦债务违约。耶伦新提供的时间表反映了美国财政部有关这一回旋空间何时可能耗尽的最新想法。她在1月曾表示，特殊措施“不太可能”在6月初之前用完。耶伦在信中说：在我1月13日的信中，我指出现金和特殊会计操作措施不太可能在6月初之前用尽。在审查了最近的联邦税收收入后，我们的最佳估计是，如果国会不在此之前提高或暂停债务限额，我们将无法在6月初之前继续履行政府的所有义务，并且可能最早在6月1日就触及债务上限。这一估计是基于目前可用的数据，因为联邦收入和支出是可变的，而财政部用尽特别会计操作措施的实际日期可能比这些估计晚数周。此外，耶伦表示，为避免超出债务上限，财政部暂停发行州和地方政府系列（SLGS）国债：SLGS是发行给各州和市政当局的特殊用途国债，以帮助它们遵守某些税收规则。当财政部发行SLGS时，它们将计入债务限额。市场分析认为，此举将剥夺“州和地方政府管理财务的重要工具”。最后，像往常一样，耶伦在信中恳求国会两党尽快达成债务上限协议：我们从过去的债务上限僵局中了解到，等到最后一刻才暂停或提高债务上限可能会对企业和消费者信心造成严重损害，提高纳税人的短期借贷成本，并对美国的信用评级产生负面影响。如果国会不提高债务上限，将给美国家庭带来严重困难，损害我们的全球地位，并引发对我们捍卫国家安全利益能力的质疑。另外，周一早些时候，财政部公布了对今年二季度和三季度最新债务借款估计。根据历史数据，财政部指出，在2023年第一季度，财政部借贷6570亿美元，该季度末现金余额为1780亿美元。 这与今年1月做出的预测有巨大差异，当时财政部估计借款为9320亿美元，并预计3月底的现金余额为5000亿美元。对于今年二季度，美国财政部预计将接入7260亿美元的新债务，二季度末的现金余额为5500亿美元；对于三季度，美国财政部预计将借入7330亿美元的债务，三季度末现金余额为6000亿美元。不过，这些假设的前提都是美国两党能够就增加或废除债务上限达成协议。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":687197913,"gmtCreate":1660802165539,"gmtModify":1660802165539,"author":{"id":"17720688041184","authorId":"17720688041184","name":"小白相","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a470e7ef2e9a1acebb3ad056c998d826","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"17720688041184","authorIdStr":"17720688041184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"得先有2750万美元，这还没算交易费","listText":"得先有2750万美元，这还没算交易费","text":"得先有2750万美元，这还没算交易费","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/687197913","repostId":"1135755752","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135755752","pubTimestamp":1660790865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135755752?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-18 10:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"靠“散户概念股”，美国一大学生狂赚1.1亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135755752","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“散户概念股”的疯狂，就连机构投资者似乎也忍不住亲自下场当起了散户。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者：王眉</p><p>在散户投资者的抱团追捧之下，Bed Bath &amp; Beyond（BBBY）这家陷入困境的零售商股价最近继续暴涨，让乘势押注这波涨势的投资者大赚了一笔。</p><p>其中就包括美国一名初出茅庐的20岁大学生。</p><p>据报道，来自美国南加州大学应用数学和经济学专业的大学生Jake Freeman，在今年7月以每股不到5.5美元的价格购买了500万股BBBY股票。</p><p>此前该公司业绩惨淡，董事总经理被解职，导致其股价下跌。</p><p><b>而最近一个月，BBBY狂涨了365%。</b>上周一，BBBY盘中曾涨超60%；8月16日周二盘中涨近80%，股价跃升至每股27美元以上。</p><p>随着BBBY股价飙升，<b>Freeman周二从他的账户中卖出了价值超过1.3亿美元的股票，获得了约1.1亿美元的收益。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ec959ffdd564e9b28661524f763f6f\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Freeman的出售恰逢其时，周二盘后BBBY大跌17%，尽管周三收盘反弹了10%。</p><p>他在周三接受媒体采访时说：</p><blockquote>“我没有想到会出现如此疯狂的反弹，我还以为这将是一场超过6个月的比赛……我真的很震惊它上涨得如此之快。”</blockquote><p>监管文件显示，Freeman通过资管公司Freeman Capital Management积累了BBBY超过6%的头寸。他说，<b>他从朋友和家人那里筹集了资金，认为这家陷入困境的公司可以进行重组债务。</b></p><p>Bed Bath &amp; Beyond是2021年初流行起来的少数几只散户抱团股（又称Meme股）之一，但其受关注度低于视频游戏零售商GameStop和连锁影院AMC，该公司总部位于新泽西州，以经营真空吸尘器、毛巾和厨房用具的大型门店而闻名。</p><p>该公司二季度业绩报告称，与2021年同期相比，其二季度的销售额下降了25%，净亏损从5100万美元扩大到3.58亿美元。该公司的现金流已从年初的10亿美元降至1.07亿美元。</p><p>尽管业绩惨淡，但由于其股票的低流通性，且空头大量押注股价下跌，该公司成功引起了潜伏在Reddit论坛的散户投资者的兴趣。<b>这意味着他们可以尝试通过推高股价并迫使专业投资者平仓，来建立“逼空”机制，从而进一步推高股价。</b></p><p>不过，不同于上周的是，本周BBBY大涨是因为GME董事长Ryan Cohen押注的消息重新激发了散户投资者的兴趣。</p><p>周一晚披露的监管方文件显示，Cohen旗下的风投公司RC Ventures买入了超过160万股2023年1月到期的BBBY虚值看涨期权，行权价在每股60美元到80美元。</p><p>这笔披露的交易立即吸引了有“美股散户大本营“之称的Reddit论坛WallStreetBets分论坛用户。买入上述看涨期权的交易意味着，Cohen押注BBBY可能最高涨至80美元，较本周一BBBY收盘价16美元上涨四倍。</p><p><b>“散户概念股”的疯狂，就连机构投资者似乎也忍不住亲自下场当起了散户。</b></p><p>有评论认为，GME等其他散户抱团股和BBBY一样大涨是因为，一些对冲基金假扮散户蜂拥入市，希望乘着散户热捧的东风追逐动量上升。</p><p><b>散户的夏日狂潮将持续多久？</b></p><p>然而，经历连日疯涨之后，BBBY周三盘后却一路下挫，跌幅一度达20%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c58999f9ed4699a5b8e822ddd17db95\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>如此反转的走势主要归咎于&#34;带头大哥&#34;之一的Ryan Cohen或将出售该股。此前，GME董事长Ryan Cohen通过旗下的风投公司RC Ventures买入了超过160万股2023年1月到期的BBBY虚值看涨期权，而在周三下午决定出售持有全部股份。</p><p>分析指出，这将可能打击是此次“散户抱团”冲高股价的动力。</p><p>另外，值得一提的是，图表走势显示，逼空者的弹药正消耗殆尽......</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bfa4546d69d747432cd5b19d27e6add\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>而Meme股热潮似乎也在失去吸引力......</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c300b3d96f4937939ff19ac5fea2ffe7\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>其次，美联储仍处于数十年来最激进的货币紧缩周期之中。这意味着，现在市场里几乎没有廉价资金可用，因此像去年那样的反弹行情的流动性也会减少。</p><p>最后，因为像3B家居（BBBY）这样的股票，几乎没有基本面可谈。<b>分析得出，来的快，去的也快，这次散户抱团股狂潮要凉凉了。</b></p><p>但也有分析持不同观点，WallStreetBets创始人Jaime Rogozinski表示，最近散户交易热情的复苏不会很快减弱。</p><p>Rogozinski在接受媒体采访时表示：</p><blockquote>暑假结束了，每个人都回到了学校，活动开始活跃起来。</blockquote><blockquote><b>只要不禁止购买股票，这种狂热可能会持续下去。</b></blockquote><p>Rogozinski认为，此次的驱动因素与2021年1月相同，市场情绪相对比较悲观，被大举做空的一些股票在日内交易者的推动下暴涨。</p><p><b>而在散户交易热情重燃之际，华尔街专业投资者才刚刚开始加大买入股票。</b>Rogozinski说，尽管他预计市场不会复制过去，但他看到日内交易者大量买入同一只“老网红股”还是很惊讶的。例如，对冲基金已经改变了做法，现在不愿公开它们持有的空头头寸。</p><p>对于追踪WSB概念股的ETF，Rogozinski并不看好，因为它们受到监管的限制。他指出，WSB概念股涨跌非常快，等ETF进行完重组、再平衡以及申请变更，这些股票的上涨早就结束了。这些ETF的想法很好，但执行起来很难。</p><p>Rogozinski还表示，<b>散户们非常疯狂，目前无法判断这一轮散户热潮会持续多久。</b></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>靠“散户概念股”，美国一大学生狂赚1.1亿美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n靠“散户概念股”，美国一大学生狂赚1.1亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-18 10:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668033><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：王眉在散户投资者的抱团追捧之下，Bed Bath & Beyond（BBBY）这家陷入困境的零售商股价最近继续暴涨，让乘势押注这波涨势的投资者大赚了一笔。其中就包括美国一名初出茅庐的20岁大学生。据报道，来自美国南加州大学应用数学和经济学专业的大学生Jake Freeman，在今年7月以每股不到5.5美元的价格购买了500万股BBBY股票。此前该公司业绩惨淡，董事总经理被解职，导致其股价下跌...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668033\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9805cd085f058418ee36879288cfa0fe","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3668033","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1135755752","content_text":"作者：王眉在散户投资者的抱团追捧之下，Bed Bath & Beyond（BBBY）这家陷入困境的零售商股价最近继续暴涨，让乘势押注这波涨势的投资者大赚了一笔。其中就包括美国一名初出茅庐的20岁大学生。据报道，来自美国南加州大学应用数学和经济学专业的大学生Jake Freeman，在今年7月以每股不到5.5美元的价格购买了500万股BBBY股票。此前该公司业绩惨淡，董事总经理被解职，导致其股价下跌。而最近一个月，BBBY狂涨了365%。上周一，BBBY盘中曾涨超60%；8月16日周二盘中涨近80%，股价跃升至每股27美元以上。随着BBBY股价飙升，Freeman周二从他的账户中卖出了价值超过1.3亿美元的股票，获得了约1.1亿美元的收益。Freeman的出售恰逢其时，周二盘后BBBY大跌17%，尽管周三收盘反弹了10%。他在周三接受媒体采访时说：“我没有想到会出现如此疯狂的反弹，我还以为这将是一场超过6个月的比赛……我真的很震惊它上涨得如此之快。”监管文件显示，Freeman通过资管公司Freeman Capital Management积累了BBBY超过6%的头寸。他说，他从朋友和家人那里筹集了资金，认为这家陷入困境的公司可以进行重组债务。Bed Bath & Beyond是2021年初流行起来的少数几只散户抱团股（又称Meme股）之一，但其受关注度低于视频游戏零售商GameStop和连锁影院AMC，该公司总部位于新泽西州，以经营真空吸尘器、毛巾和厨房用具的大型门店而闻名。该公司二季度业绩报告称，与2021年同期相比，其二季度的销售额下降了25%，净亏损从5100万美元扩大到3.58亿美元。该公司的现金流已从年初的10亿美元降至1.07亿美元。尽管业绩惨淡，但由于其股票的低流通性，且空头大量押注股价下跌，该公司成功引起了潜伏在Reddit论坛的散户投资者的兴趣。这意味着他们可以尝试通过推高股价并迫使专业投资者平仓，来建立“逼空”机制，从而进一步推高股价。不过，不同于上周的是，本周BBBY大涨是因为GME董事长Ryan Cohen押注的消息重新激发了散户投资者的兴趣。周一晚披露的监管方文件显示，Cohen旗下的风投公司RC Ventures买入了超过160万股2023年1月到期的BBBY虚值看涨期权，行权价在每股60美元到80美元。这笔披露的交易立即吸引了有“美股散户大本营“之称的Reddit论坛WallStreetBets分论坛用户。买入上述看涨期权的交易意味着，Cohen押注BBBY可能最高涨至80美元，较本周一BBBY收盘价16美元上涨四倍。“散户概念股”的疯狂，就连机构投资者似乎也忍不住亲自下场当起了散户。有评论认为，GME等其他散户抱团股和BBBY一样大涨是因为，一些对冲基金假扮散户蜂拥入市，希望乘着散户热捧的东风追逐动量上升。散户的夏日狂潮将持续多久？然而，经历连日疯涨之后，BBBY周三盘后却一路下挫，跌幅一度达20%。如此反转的走势主要归咎于\"带头大哥\"之一的Ryan Cohen或将出售该股。此前，GME董事长Ryan Cohen通过旗下的风投公司RC Ventures买入了超过160万股2023年1月到期的BBBY虚值看涨期权，而在周三下午决定出售持有全部股份。分析指出，这将可能打击是此次“散户抱团”冲高股价的动力。另外，值得一提的是，图表走势显示，逼空者的弹药正消耗殆尽......而Meme股热潮似乎也在失去吸引力......其次，美联储仍处于数十年来最激进的货币紧缩周期之中。这意味着，现在市场里几乎没有廉价资金可用，因此像去年那样的反弹行情的流动性也会减少。最后，因为像3B家居（BBBY）这样的股票，几乎没有基本面可谈。分析得出，来的快，去的也快，这次散户抱团股狂潮要凉凉了。但也有分析持不同观点，WallStreetBets创始人Jaime Rogozinski表示，最近散户交易热情的复苏不会很快减弱。Rogozinski在接受媒体采访时表示：暑假结束了，每个人都回到了学校，活动开始活跃起来。只要不禁止购买股票，这种狂热可能会持续下去。Rogozinski认为，此次的驱动因素与2021年1月相同，市场情绪相对比较悲观，被大举做空的一些股票在日内交易者的推动下暴涨。而在散户交易热情重燃之际，华尔街专业投资者才刚刚开始加大买入股票。Rogozinski说，尽管他预计市场不会复制过去，但他看到日内交易者大量买入同一只“老网红股”还是很惊讶的。例如，对冲基金已经改变了做法，现在不愿公开它们持有的空头头寸。对于追踪WSB概念股的ETF，Rogozinski并不看好，因为它们受到监管的限制。他指出，WSB概念股涨跌非常快，等ETF进行完重组、再平衡以及申请变更，这些股票的上涨早就结束了。这些ETF的想法很好，但执行起来很难。Rogozinski还表示，散户们非常疯狂，目前无法判断这一轮散户热潮会持续多久。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879066902,"gmtCreate":1636671735223,"gmtModify":1636671735223,"author":{"id":"17720688041184","authorId":"17720688041184","name":"小白相","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a470e7ef2e9a1acebb3ad056c998d826","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"17720688041184","authorIdStr":"17720688041184"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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