戒骄戒躁
06-13
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@芯潮:
半导体超级大牛市还能维持多久?
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COWEN将英伟达目标价格从140美元上调至165美元。【英伟达后市你怎么看?跌到多少你会加仓?】","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f40d4c9ce2b914622d5bc108dd736592"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6401463f8ac807ff6eaf75208e08e24","width":"831","height":"688"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e4339846dceaa4f59790d1c24bff52","width":"1570","height":"669"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c59909087162b514bc80c79c6743014","width":"1263","height":"543"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30208f4b4f4b6a26c11325cb5e2a075","width":"1414","height":"642"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971b728c655fce7e6ecfdaa236f9139d","width":"1263","height":"595"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9d63b89e767c90ecba7ff78e7c4ae9","width":"1228","height":"631"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6401463f8ac807ff6eaf75208e08e24","width":"831","height":"688"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e4339846dceaa4f59790d1c24bff52","width":"1570","height":"669"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c59909087162b514bc80c79c6743014","width":"1263","height":"543"}],"title":"半导体超级大牛市还能维持多久?","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>今年是半导体的超级大牛市,英伟达、台积电、阿斯麦、博通、应用材料等公司的股价悉数创下历史新高!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6401463f8ac807ff6eaf75208e08e24\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"688\"></p><p>暴涨过后,半导体股票还能追吗?</p><p>要想回答这个问题,还得复盘下半导体本轮牛市的动机。</p><p>首先,半导体是周期性行业,疫情期间,全球大放水,居家办公带来消费电子需求爆发,半导体销售额创历史记录。</p><p>疫情过后,欧美迎来通胀,消费电子需求下滑,半导体进入下行周期,股价大跌。</p><p>2023年3月,半导体销售额企稳回升,费城半导体指数同步上涨:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e4339846dceaa4f59790d1c24bff52\" tg-width=\"1570\" tg-height=\"669\"></p><p>其次,本轮半导体牛市与以往不同,从前半导体销售主要集中在手机、PC上,而本轮则新增了AI,尤其是GPU销量大增。</p><p>GPU的领头羊是英伟达,其年收入已经由AI爆发前的270亿美元,跃升至798亿,有望在未来一年实现1203亿的销售额!</p><p>AI需求井喷,由此带动的芯片制造、设备的需求上升,整个产业链都开始爆发!</p><p>由此来看,此轮半导体大牛市的主要原因就是周期性回暖及AI爆发。</p><p>从估值上看,费城半导体指数市销率已经创下历史记录,考虑到半导体景气度回升及AI需求爆发已经为市场所熟知,因此,半导体超级牛市已经进入后半程:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c59909087162b514bc80c79c6743014\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"543\"></p><p>从个股来看,英伟达当前市销率为37倍,已经超越上一轮牛市的34倍:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30208f4b4f4b6a26c11325cb5e2a075\" tg-width=\"1414\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p>考虑到英伟达此轮牛市的营收增速远超以往,且AI GPU处于独家垄断态势,毛利率由此前的66%升至76%,因此,本轮牛市的估值超越以往,是合理的。</p><p>根据分析师的预期,英伟达未来的年销售额将超过1200亿美元,据此计算,英伟达远期市销率为25倍,仍有上升空间,问鼎全球市值第一宝座问题不大!</p><p>给英伟达提供代工服务的台积电,其市净率为6.5倍,尚未超越上一轮牛市高点时的8.5倍,同样还有上升空间:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971b728c655fce7e6ecfdaa236f9139d\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"595\"></p><p>台积电制造芯片必须要用到阿斯麦的光刻机,从市盈率来看,阿斯麦目前为53倍,尚未触及上一轮半导体牛市高点:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9d63b89e767c90ecba7ff78e7c4ae9\" tg-width=\"1228\" tg-height=\"631\"></p><p>值得注意的是,半导体设备的爆发滞后于销售额,根据管理层的指引,今年是阿斯麦业绩的平稳之年,2025年才是业绩爆发年,分析师预期明年的营收增速高达32%!</p><p>届时,阿斯麦的估值将大幅下降,换言之,阿斯麦也有上升空间!</p><p>应用材料和泛林集团同样为半导体设备股,历史新高背后的逻辑和阿斯麦相似,不再赘述。</p><p>总的来说,虽然半导体股价涨幅已经巨大,但考虑到本轮牛市新增AI这一革命性变量,因此,本轮牛市的估值将超过以往,由此来看,虽然此时入场已经失去最为暴利的阶段,但仍能给投资者带来不错的回报!</p><p> </p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"ASML\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿斯麦\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"AMAT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"应用材料\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">$应用材料(AMAT)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"LRCX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"拉姆研究\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">$拉姆研究(LRCX)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"博通\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$</a> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>今年是半导体的超级大牛市,英伟达、台积电、阿斯麦、博通、应用材料等公司的股价悉数创下历史新高!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6401463f8ac807ff6eaf75208e08e24\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"688\"></p><p>暴涨过后,半导体股票还能追吗?</p><p>要想回答这个问题,还得复盘下半导体本轮牛市的动机。</p><p>首先,半导体是周期性行业,疫情期间,全球大放水,居家办公带来消费电子需求爆发,半导体销售额创历史记录。</p><p>疫情过后,欧美迎来通胀,消费电子需求下滑,半导体进入下行周期,股价大跌。</p><p>2023年3月,半导体销售额企稳回升,费城半导体指数同步上涨:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e4339846dceaa4f59790d1c24bff52\" tg-width=\"1570\" tg-height=\"669\"></p><p>其次,本轮半导体牛市与以往不同,从前半导体销售主要集中在手机、PC上,而本轮则新增了AI,尤其是GPU销量大增。</p><p>GPU的领头羊是英伟达,其年收入已经由AI爆发前的270亿美元,跃升至798亿,有望在未来一年实现1203亿的销售额!</p><p>AI需求井喷,由此带动的芯片制造、设备的需求上升,整个产业链都开始爆发!</p><p>由此来看,此轮半导体大牛市的主要原因就是周期性回暖及AI爆发。</p><p>从估值上看,费城半导体指数市销率已经创下历史记录,考虑到半导体景气度回升及AI需求爆发已经为市场所熟知,因此,半导体超级牛市已经进入后半程:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c59909087162b514bc80c79c6743014\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"543\"></p><p>从个股来看,英伟达当前市销率为37倍,已经超越上一轮牛市的34倍:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30208f4b4f4b6a26c11325cb5e2a075\" tg-width=\"1414\" tg-height=\"642\"></p><p>考虑到英伟达此轮牛市的营收增速远超以往,且AI GPU处于独家垄断态势,毛利率由此前的66%升至76%,因此,本轮牛市的估值超越以往,是合理的。</p><p>根据分析师的预期,英伟达未来的年销售额将超过1200亿美元,据此计算,英伟达远期市销率为25倍,仍有上升空间,问鼎全球市值第一宝座问题不大!</p><p>给英伟达提供代工服务的台积电,其市净率为6.5倍,尚未超越上一轮牛市高点时的8.5倍,同样还有上升空间:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/971b728c655fce7e6ecfdaa236f9139d\" tg-width=\"1263\" tg-height=\"595\"></p><p>台积电制造芯片必须要用到阿斯麦的光刻机,从市盈率来看,阿斯麦目前为53倍,尚未触及上一轮半导体牛市高点:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce9d63b89e767c90ecba7ff78e7c4ae9\" tg-width=\"1228\" tg-height=\"631\"></p><p>值得注意的是,半导体设备的爆发滞后于销售额,根据管理层的指引,今年是阿斯麦业绩的平稳之年,2025年才是业绩爆发年,分析师预期明年的营收增速高达32%!</p><p>届时,阿斯麦的估值将大幅下降,换言之,阿斯麦也有上升空间!</p><p>应用材料和泛林集团同样为半导体设备股,历史新高背后的逻辑和阿斯麦相似,不再赘述。</p><p>总的来说,虽然半导体股价涨幅已经巨大,但考虑到本轮牛市新增AI这一革命性变量,因此,本轮牛市的估值将超过以往,由此来看,虽然此时入场已经失去最为暴利的阶段,但仍能给投资者带来不错的回报!</p><p> </p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"ASML\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿斯麦\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"AMAT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"应用材料\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">$应用材料(AMAT)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"LRCX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"拉姆研究\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LRCX\">$拉姆研究(LRCX)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"AVGO\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"博通\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$</a> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p><p> </p></body></html>","text":"今年是半导体的超级大牛市,英伟达、台积电、阿斯麦、博通、应用材料等公司的股价悉数创下历史新高! 暴涨过后,半导体股票还能追吗? 要想回答这个问题,还得复盘下半导体本轮牛市的动机。 首先,半导体是周期性行业,疫情期间,全球大放水,居家办公带来消费电子需求爆发,半导体销售额创历史记录。 疫情过后,欧美迎来通胀,消费电子需求下滑,半导体进入下行周期,股价大跌。 2023年3月,半导体销售额企稳回升,费城半导体指数同步上涨: 其次,本轮半导体牛市与以往不同,从前半导体销售主要集中在手机、PC上,而本轮则新增了AI,尤其是GPU销量大增。 GPU的领头羊是英伟达,其年收入已经由AI爆发前的270亿美元,跃升至798亿,有望在未来一年实现1203亿的销售额! AI需求井喷,由此带动的芯片制造、设备的需求上升,整个产业链都开始爆发! 由此来看,此轮半导体大牛市的主要原因就是周期性回暖及AI爆发。 从估值上看,费城半导体指数市销率已经创下历史记录,考虑到半导体景气度回升及AI需求爆发已经为市场所熟知,因此,半导体超级牛市已经进入后半程: 从个股来看,英伟达当前市销率为37倍,已经超越上一轮牛市的34倍: 考虑到英伟达此轮牛市的营收增速远超以往,且AI GPU处于独家垄断态势,毛利率由此前的66%升至76%,因此,本轮牛市的估值超越以往,是合理的。 根据分析师的预期,英伟达未来的年销售额将超过1200亿美元,据此计算,英伟达远期市销率为25倍,仍有上升空间,问鼎全球市值第一宝座问题不大! 给英伟达提供代工服务的台积电,其市净率为6.5倍,尚未超越上一轮牛市高点时的8.5倍,同样还有上升空间: 台积电制造芯片必须要用到阿斯麦的光刻机,从市盈率来看,阿斯麦目前为53倍,尚未触及上一轮半导体牛市高点: 值得注意的是,半导体设备的爆发滞后于销售额,根据管理层的指引,今年是阿斯麦业绩的平稳之年,2025年才是业绩爆发年,分析师预期明年的营收增速高达32%! 届时,阿斯麦的估值将大幅下降,换言之,阿斯麦也有上升空间! 应用材料和泛林集团同样为半导体设备股,历史新高背后的逻辑和阿斯麦相似,不再赘述。 总的来说,虽然半导体股价涨幅已经巨大,但考虑到本轮牛市新增AI这一革命性变量,因此,本轮牛市的估值将超过以往,由此来看,虽然此时入场已经失去最为暴利的阶段,但仍能给投资者带来不错的回报! $英伟达(NVDA)$ $阿斯麦(ASML)$ $应用材料(AMAT)$ $拉姆研究(LRCX)$ $博通(AVGO)$","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316085671444712","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","AMAT","LRCX","AVGO","ASML"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":true,"upFlag":false,"length":1858,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/316202473251024"}
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