YogaOng的个人主页 - 老虎社区

YogaOng

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2021-10-27

$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ shooting up 🎉🚀

2021-09-30

🤔

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-08

$PayPal(PYPL)$ pre-market already up

2021-09-07

$Etsy(ETSY)$ a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do your own homework and manage your portfolio

2021-09-04

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-01

$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$premarket ❤️ up more please~🚀

2021-08-31

$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$This stock is crazy 😮😮

2021-08-04

$Alibaba(BABA)$ still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.

@3Fs:Alibaba Group Holdings - FY2022 Q1 Earning + Live Conference

2021-07-16

$Alibaba(BABA)$Up more please~~

2021-07-07

[思考]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-23

$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?

2021-06-21

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Will it goes up again?

2021-06-21

Up up up~[看涨] [看涨]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Nice [得意]

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-18

How do you think? Comment please~

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-18

Do you think it started to goes up?

2021-06-14

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ good to hold

Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-06-14

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-13

Both also good companies, just that don't why the market don't like Baba now.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-13

Good and steady

抱歉，原内容已删除

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;pre-market already up&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;pre-market already up&nbsp;","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ pre-market already up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0378dd153640126f0da3a32a2871a213","width":"1080","height":"3969"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889966584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880995991,"gmtCreate":1631006406313,"gmtModify":1631884337411,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">$Etsy(ETSY)$</a>&nbsp;a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do&nbsp;your own homework and manage your portfolio","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">$Etsy(ETSY)$</a>&nbsp;a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do&nbsp;your own homework and manage your portfolio","text":"$Etsy(ETSY)$ a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do your own homework and manage your portfolio","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8121056b0b13493686fa65c3d4ee0c","width":"1080","height":"3870"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880995991","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815580682,"gmtCreate":1630691980846,"gmtModify":1631890026560,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815580682","repostId":"2164829181","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816299608,"gmtCreate":1630502394604,"gmtModify":1631886253129,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>premarket&nbsp;❤️&nbsp;up more please~🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>premarket&nbsp;❤️&nbsp;up more please~🚀","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$premarket ❤️ up more please~🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ec0204d9af77142fa8aa53a60fc79ff","width":"1080","height":"2741"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816299608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811730213,"gmtCreate":1630344831832,"gmtModify":1704958878119,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>This stock is crazy 😮😮","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFRM\">$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$</a>This stock is crazy 😮😮","text":"$Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$This stock is crazy 😮😮","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137a708327204bbc2b71fe2e19665290","width":"1080","height":"2642"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811730213","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2032,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890904361,"gmtCreate":1628072758553,"gmtModify":1631890026567,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890904361","repostId":"807919017","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":807919017,"gmtCreate":1627995702639,"gmtModify":1628069904597,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556134694513016","idStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"Alibaba Group Holdings - FY2022 Q1 Earning + Live Conference","htmlText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent results. Revenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter. Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year. Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace. Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 1","listText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent results. Revenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter. Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year. Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace. Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 1","text":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent results. Revenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter. Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year. Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace. Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807919017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170803337,"gmtCreate":1626416698029,"gmtModify":1631890026572,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Up more please~~","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Up more please~~","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Up more please~~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0c2b8e72dff4f4842c2590bf313412","width":"1080","height":"4176"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170803337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140428262,"gmtCreate":1625669460156,"gmtModify":1631890026569,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140428262","repostId":"1106187901","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123878743,"gmtCreate":1624418395182,"gmtModify":1631884773735,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?&nbsp;","text":"$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2722e12b554309e1402d0b3b1f8b5a","width":"1080","height":"3528"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123878743","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167289407,"gmtCreate":1624270554809,"gmtModify":1631890026573,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it goes up again?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it goes up again?&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Will it goes up again?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc912bcb850e7afa73208d227b55c19","width":"1080","height":"2492"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167289407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167236357,"gmtCreate":1624269421179,"gmtModify":1631890026576,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up~[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"Up up up~[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"Up up up~[看涨] [看涨]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167236357","repostId":"1172678753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166341337,"gmtCreate":1623993658229,"gmtModify":1631890026580,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;Nice&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;Nice&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ Nice [得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166341337","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166327041,"gmtCreate":1623993054683,"gmtModify":1631890026585,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How do you think? Comment please~","listText":"How do you think? Comment please~","text":"How do you think? Comment please~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166327041","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166325545,"gmtCreate":1623992990387,"gmtModify":1631890026587,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Do you think it started to goes up?&nbsp;","listText":"Do you think it started to goes up?&nbsp;","text":"Do you think it started to goes up?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d03336ebfbc967a1c9659755184c8afc","width":"1080","height":"2387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166325545","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185102757,"gmtCreate":1623635570879,"gmtModify":1631890026588,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;good to hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;good to hold","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ good to hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185102757","repostId":"1135926549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135926549","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623630467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135926549?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135926549","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise so","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>  <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>  <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>  <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>  <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管Palantir Technologies的股票引起了轩然大波，但它只是一家企业软件企业，而且是一家不错的企业。</li><li>财务基本面比该公司通常被认为的要好得多，而且我们认为股价处于有吸引力的买入点。</li><li>在我们看来，这个名字的关键是忽略你选择的股票板上的所有噪音。</li><li>展望五年后，我们认为这只股票可能会成为巨大的赢家，因此我们将这个名字保存在员工个人账户中。</li><li>我们维持对Palantir的买入评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Palantirian一样制作——关注信号，而不是噪音</b></blockquote></p><p> If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p><p><blockquote>如果您与Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈（我们已经这样做了），他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要好处是它能够将来自多个来源的数据汇集在一起并理解所有这些既快速又轻松。它不需要坐在地下室的大量业务或数据分析师来制作顶层大办公室的人们可以理解的报告。这意味着，如果部署正确，这些产品将提供分析公司的梦想，因为“提取、转换、加载”是新的和酷的时代——降低报告制作的成本，提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个不认为该软件让他们的业务变得更好的用户交谈过。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有与任何人交谈。</blockquote></p><p> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p><p><blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长孕育期内培养了“黑魔法大师”的声誉，部分原因是由于时代精神，Palantir是一只非常受欢迎的股票，似乎也引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这种企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该板上拥有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，这一数字是微软的一半，而且可能更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。还是那句话，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote></p><p> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p><p><blockquote>如果你拥有或者正在考虑这样做，我们劝你退后一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待这些数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们非常喜欢的名字。当股票暴跌时，我们会放松；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们就会放松。我们认为，Palantir是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在你读完我们的分析后，我们可以给你留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪音。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以支付你做同样的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变情况。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p><p><blockquote>正是波动性导致了一些股票董事会的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说，到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，自那时以来，该股上涨了150%，而主要指数的总回报率为20%左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和QQQ ETF上面分别作为S&amp;P 500和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote></p><p> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果你看短期，自2021年2月高点以来，你会发现短期持有者有更多担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始至今。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p><p><blockquote>由于不可避免地，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着有许多持有者坐在亏损并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收了损失。和往常一样，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信Palantir股票有着非常光明的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p><p><blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的SEC报告需要时间来建立过去的画面。在3-4个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度历史以及增长飞轮的运行情况。首先，收入降至EBITDA。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p><p><blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值型股票是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，在我们看来，这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir的估值倍数最近大幅上升，部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的PLTR自身增长率的改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p><p><blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到非常愤怒——是股票X<i>真的</i>价值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？——但事实上，这并不科学。在成长型股票的牛市中，你增长得越快，利润越高，对未来增长的了解越多，你的股票相对于其他此类股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付10倍TTM收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，大量交易的价格是40倍TTM收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为折现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何方式，EBITDA和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为DCF与估值增长名称和公司标志的颜色一样相关，我们没有注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同的企业来说，TTM收入是35倍，具有产生会计和现金利润的能力，并且第一季度的收入比上一年增长了49%？在当前的市场背景下，这对我们来说似乎很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p><p><blockquote>那么，Palantir是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标帮助很少，12个月后的目标范围似乎在17-30美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础！）.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 5年后股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们听取了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的长期增长率目标是30%），但拒绝了他们<i>向上</i>一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的EBITDA利润率，将其限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说是正确的水平——20%——如果PLTR将大部分服务工作移交给顾问合作伙伴，他们很有可能超越这一水平随着时间的推移，但目前我们假设终端EBITDA利润率为20%。然后，我们指定一个谨慎的EBITDA转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（=EBITDA-资本支出-营运资本变化）的比率，以便大约20%的EBITDA以某种方式泄漏到乙醚中。（这只是一种保守地模拟现金生成的方法。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会出现在资产负债表上的坏账或巨额预付款或其他东西中。是建模装置，不是真的）。</blockquote></p><p> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p><p><blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>其中估值倍数<i>做</i>物质在你买入股票和卖出股票之间的传播方向上。如果倍数扩大，这是你所希望的最大的免费资金来源。炼金术没有任何关于倍数膨胀的东西。如果它们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟的是，会下跌。从基本面角度来看，这是长期投资者需要询问PLTR股票的关键问题。在我们看来，该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自市盈率是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的5年展望中，我们假设这些市盈率将有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储窃窃私语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持持平。谁知道呢。但你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote></p><p> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p><p><blockquote>将所有这些因素放在一起可能会导致价格从今天的24美元上涨到2024年的50美元左右，并在2025年上涨到60美元左右。现在，与他们中最好的人一起玩模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内让你的钱翻倍并没有那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为主要风险相当简单。第一，公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越多的纯软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来盈利——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上述假设软件商业模式的倍数那样。第二，这些倍数能持续下去吗？因此，每季度一次，在我们对业务的现场报道中，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与UFCF利润率（这告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力所需了解的所有信息），以及成长型公司的现行市场倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p><p><blockquote>图表分析与PLTR的近期前景特别相关，而PLTR本身也与长期前景相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的，比如“它再也不会看到40美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场正在解冻，但该股仍略低于25美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的需求和供给。下面的图表向您展示了在25美元邮政编码中有一个<i>整体</i>过去交易了很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面的16.8万粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年H1那样大幅下跌，然后回来时，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了赚回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了口气，以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR，开始抛售，因为有一次他们看着17美元的手柄说，请不要现在给我看涨期权的保证金，非常好。</blockquote></p><p> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但就像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想并思考它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的了。</blockquote></p><p> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为股票图表是废话，事实并非如此。如果准备得当，他们有时会告诉你<i>很多</i>关于一只股票未来的走向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种已经忘乎所以的幼儿园填色比赛，也请容忍我们。</blockquote></p><p> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦PLTR升至30美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们50-60美元/股是可能的，我们的图表显示30美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是一项非常好的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经想通了，要么更有可能（2）因为你是一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>  <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>  <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>  <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>  <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤位。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你看看该股从低点到高点的上涨，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于（i）绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是（ii）每个人都根据Fib水平进行交易的事实，你可以看到PLTR在下跌的过程中找到支撑，首先是在2月份短暂的50%回撤位（=损失了上涨时获得的价值的一半），然后在2月底迅速跌至61.8%回撤位，并在该回撤位附近徘徊，直到5月初，然后它真正开始挖掘，几乎触及78.6%回撤位。这是一次大规模的ol抛售，无论以何种标准衡量都太多了，这就是为什么你会在5月11日看到如此大而快速的逆转。考虑到小幅波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。这些从右向左突出的蓝色和黄色线告诉您在任何给定价格下股票的历史交易量。黑色粗横线即为“控制点”即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你瞧，在上升的支撑线和控制线之间，你可以看到股票在上涨，并希望突破控制线的那个点。正如您所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们<i>爱</i>股票图表，因为它们有时揭示的魔力。</li><li>Palantir股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨时，都会有很多人说，唷，加倍唷，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但在我们看来，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，第一，市场对成长型股票的兴趣正在升温，第二，PLTR的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到你看到交易股票相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的持续供应可能会枯竭。和<i>那个</i>意味着该股从30-40美元上涨比从20-30美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，成长股升温。股票图表显示，现在只要再往前一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，“弱手”提供更多的待售股票，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您以40美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景），我们认为PLTR股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场正在改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然对该股产生热情，一大群机构可能会在此盘整期间买入。购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>  <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>  <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>  <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>  <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管Palantir Technologies的股票引起了轩然大波，但它只是一家企业软件企业，而且是一家不错的企业。</li><li>财务基本面比该公司通常被认为的要好得多，而且我们认为股价处于有吸引力的买入点。</li><li>在我们看来，这个名字的关键是忽略你选择的股票板上的所有噪音。</li><li>展望五年后，我们认为这只股票可能会成为巨大的赢家，因此我们将这个名字保存在员工个人账户中。</li><li>我们维持对Palantir的买入评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Palantirian一样制作——关注信号，而不是噪音</b></blockquote></p><p> If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p><p><blockquote>如果您与Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈（我们已经这样做了），他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要好处是它能够将来自多个来源的数据汇集在一起并理解所有这些既快速又轻松。它不需要坐在地下室的大量业务或数据分析师来制作顶层大办公室的人们可以理解的报告。这意味着，如果部署正确，这些产品将提供分析公司的梦想，因为“提取、转换、加载”是新的和酷的时代——降低报告制作的成本，提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个不认为该软件让他们的业务变得更好的用户交谈过。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有与任何人交谈。</blockquote></p><p> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p><p><blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长孕育期内培养了“黑魔法大师”的声誉，部分原因是由于时代精神，Palantir是一只非常受欢迎的股票，似乎也引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这种企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该板上拥有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，这一数字是微软的一半，而且可能更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。还是那句话，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote></p><p> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p><p><blockquote>如果你拥有或者正在考虑这样做，我们劝你退后一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待这些数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们非常喜欢的名字。当股票暴跌时，我们会放松；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们就会放松。我们认为，Palantir是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在你读完我们的分析后，我们可以给你留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪音。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以支付你做同样的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变情况。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p><p><blockquote>正是波动性导致了一些股票董事会的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说，到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，自那时以来，该股上涨了150%，而主要指数的总回报率为20%左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和QQQ ETF上面分别作为S&amp;P 500和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote></p><p> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果你看短期，自2021年2月高点以来，你会发现短期持有者有更多担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始至今。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p><p><blockquote>由于不可避免地，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着有许多持有者坐在亏损并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收了损失。和往常一样，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信Palantir股票有着非常光明的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p><p><blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的SEC报告需要时间来建立过去的画面。在3-4个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度历史以及增长飞轮的运行情况。首先，收入降至EBITDA。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p><p><blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值型股票是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，在我们看来，这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir的估值倍数最近大幅上升，部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的PLTR自身增长率的改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p><p><blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到非常愤怒——是股票X<i>真的</i>价值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？——但事实上，这并不科学。在成长型股票的牛市中，你增长得越快，利润越高，对未来增长的了解越多，你的股票相对于其他此类股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付10倍TTM收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，大量交易的价格是40倍TTM收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为折现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何方式，EBITDA和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为DCF与估值增长名称和公司标志的颜色一样相关，我们没有注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同的企业来说，TTM收入是35倍，具有产生会计和现金利润的能力，并且第一季度的收入比上一年增长了49%？在当前的市场背景下，这对我们来说似乎很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p><p><blockquote>那么，Palantir是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标帮助很少，12个月后的目标范围似乎在17-30美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础！）.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 5年后股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们听取了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的长期增长率目标是30%），但拒绝了他们<i>向上</i>一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的EBITDA利润率，将其限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说是正确的水平——20%——如果PLTR将大部分服务工作移交给顾问合作伙伴，他们很有可能超越这一水平随着时间的推移，但目前我们假设终端EBITDA利润率为20%。然后，我们指定一个谨慎的EBITDA转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（=EBITDA-资本支出-营运资本变化）的比率，以便大约20%的EBITDA以某种方式泄漏到乙醚中。（这只是一种保守地模拟现金生成的方法。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会出现在资产负债表上的坏账或巨额预付款或其他东西中。是建模装置，不是真的）。</blockquote></p><p> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p><p><blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>其中估值倍数<i>做</i>物质在你买入股票和卖出股票之间的传播方向上。如果倍数扩大，这是你所希望的最大的免费资金来源。炼金术没有任何关于倍数膨胀的东西。如果它们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟的是，会下跌。从基本面角度来看，这是长期投资者需要询问PLTR股票的关键问题。在我们看来，该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自市盈率是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的5年展望中，我们假设这些市盈率将有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储窃窃私语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持持平。谁知道呢。但你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote></p><p> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p><p><blockquote>将所有这些因素放在一起可能会导致价格从今天的24美元上涨到2024年的50美元左右，并在2025年上涨到60美元左右。现在，与他们中最好的人一起玩模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内让你的钱翻倍并没有那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为主要风险相当简单。第一，公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越多的纯软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来盈利——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上述假设软件商业模式的倍数那样。第二，这些倍数能持续下去吗？因此，每季度一次，在我们对业务的现场报道中，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与UFCF利润率（这告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力所需了解的所有信息），以及成长型公司的现行市场倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p><p><blockquote>图表分析与PLTR的近期前景特别相关，而PLTR本身也与长期前景相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的，比如“它再也不会看到40美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场正在解冻，但该股仍略低于25美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的需求和供给。下面的图表向您展示了在25美元邮政编码中有一个<i>整体</i>过去交易了很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面的16.8万粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年H1那样大幅下跌，然后回来时，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了赚回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了口气，以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR，开始抛售，因为有一次他们看着17美元的手柄说，请不要现在给我看涨期权的保证金，非常好。</blockquote></p><p> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但就像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想并思考它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的了。</blockquote></p><p> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为股票图表是废话，事实并非如此。如果准备得当，他们有时会告诉你<i>很多</i>关于一只股票未来的走向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种已经忘乎所以的幼儿园填色比赛，也请容忍我们。</blockquote></p><p> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦PLTR升至30美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们50-60美元/股是可能的，我们的图表显示30美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是一项非常好的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经想通了，要么更有可能（2）因为你是一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>  <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>  <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>  <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>  <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤位。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你看看该股从低点到高点的上涨，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于（i）绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是（ii）每个人都根据Fib水平进行交易的事实，你可以看到PLTR在下跌的过程中找到支撑，首先是在2月份短暂的50%回撤位（=损失了上涨时获得的价值的一半），然后在2月底迅速跌至61.8%回撤位，并在该回撤位附近徘徊，直到5月初，然后它真正开始挖掘，几乎触及78.6%回撤位。这是一次大规模的ol抛售，无论以何种标准衡量都太多了，这就是为什么你会在5月11日看到如此大而快速的逆转。考虑到小幅波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。这些从右向左突出的蓝色和黄色线告诉您在任何给定价格下股票的历史交易量。黑色粗横线即为“控制点”即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你瞧，在上升的支撑线和控制线之间，你可以看到股票在上涨，并希望突破控制线的那个点。正如您所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们<i>爱</i>股票图表，因为它们有时揭示的魔力。</li><li>Palantir股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨时，都会有很多人说，唷，加倍唷，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但在我们看来，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，第一，市场对成长型股票的兴趣正在升温，第二，PLTR的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到你看到交易股票相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的持续供应可能会枯竭。和<i>那个</i>意味着该股从30-40美元上涨比从20-30美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，成长股升温。股票图表显示，现在只要再往前一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，“弱手”提供更多的待售股票，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您以40美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景），我们认为PLTR股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场正在改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然对该股产生热情，一大群机构可能会在此盘整期间买入。购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135926549","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.\nFinancial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.\nIn our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.\nLooking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.\nWe remain at Buy on Palantir.\n\nkanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images\nMake Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise\nIf you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.\nPartly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.\nIf you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.\nPLTR Stock Price\nLet's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.\nSource: YCharts.com\nIt's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).\nIf you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.\nSource: YCharts.com\nSince, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.\nPalantir Valuation\nBy way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.\nSource: YCharts.com\nFolks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.\nPalantir today trades at the following multiples:\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.\nIs Palantir A Long-Term Stock?\nSo, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.\nSource: TipRanks\nWe think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).\nPalantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nFundamental Analysis\nThe first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).\nBack to valuation multiples for a moment.\nWhere valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.\nPut all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nFrom a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.\nChart Analysis\nChart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.\nThis chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.\nIf you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.\nWe think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:\n\nThis chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.\nThe wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.\nThe upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.\nNow the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.\nPalantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.\n\nSo, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?\nIf you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185349293,"gmtCreate":1623634714412,"gmtModify":1631890735595,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185349293","repostId":"2143785586","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":182418166,"gmtCreate":1623597263455,"gmtModify":1631890735605,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Both also good companies, just that don't why the market don't like Baba now.&nbsp;","listText":"Both also good companies, just that don't why the market don't like Baba now.&nbsp;","text":"Both also good companies, just that don't why the market don't like Baba now.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182418166","repostId":"1195128984","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182497304,"gmtCreate":1623595707908,"gmtModify":1631890735621,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586049970742117","idStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good and steady&nbsp;","listText":"Good and steady&nbsp;","text":"Good and steady","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182497304","repostId":"2142823202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":166327041,"gmtCreate":1623993054683,"gmtModify":1631890026585,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How do you think? Comment please~","listText":"How do you think? Comment please~","text":"How do you think? Comment please~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":22,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166327041","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889966584,"gmtCreate":1631104489748,"gmtModify":1631886032435,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;pre-market already up&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>&nbsp;pre-market already up&nbsp;","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$ pre-market already up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0378dd153640126f0da3a32a2871a213","width":"1080","height":"3969"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889966584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188870185,"gmtCreate":1623429867347,"gmtModify":1631893073924,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;Where do you think the price&nbsp;will reach end of the June?&nbsp;They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June&nbsp;compare to May. How do you think?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;Where do you think the price&nbsp;will reach end of the June?&nbsp;They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June&nbsp;compare to May. How do you think?&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ Where do you think the price will reach end of the June? They said they will be able to deliver more cars in June compare to May. How do you think?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0f623189a7be81b2034dcee9df9e2eb","width":"1080","height":"2189"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188870185","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2263,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574725761275496","authorId":"3574725761275496","name":"744eb850","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3574725761275496","authorIdStr":"3574725761275496"},"content":"6月交付接近13000台","text":"6月交付接近13000台","html":"6月交付接近13000台"},{"author":{"id":"3539000026151350","authorId":"3539000026151350","name":"叫什么名字好呢呢","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0070dc93a611cffdeef70448a641192","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3539000026151350","authorIdStr":"3539000026151350"},"content":"8000左右","text":"8000左右","html":"8000左右"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167236357,"gmtCreate":1624269421179,"gmtModify":1631890026576,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up up~[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","listText":"Up up up~[看涨]&nbsp;[看涨]&nbsp;","text":"Up up up~[看涨] [看涨]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":15,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167236357","repostId":"1172678753","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170803337,"gmtCreate":1626416698029,"gmtModify":1631890026572,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Up more please~~","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>Up more please~~","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$Up more please~~","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0c2b8e72dff4f4842c2590bf313412","width":"1080","height":"4176"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170803337","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123878743,"gmtCreate":1624418395182,"gmtModify":1631884773735,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$</a>&nbsp;Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?&nbsp;","text":"$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ Yesterday it successfully breakthrough the highest resistance, will it continue go up or start to pull back?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b2722e12b554309e1402d0b3b1f8b5a","width":"1080","height":"3528"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123878743","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890904361,"gmtCreate":1628072758553,"gmtModify":1631890026567,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.&nbsp;","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$ still very good in fundamental. Hold for long.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890904361","repostId":"807919017","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":807919017,"gmtCreate":1627995702639,"gmtModify":1628069904597,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556134694513016","authorIdStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"Alibaba Group Holdings - FY2022 Q1 Earning + Live Conference","htmlText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent results. Revenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter. Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year. Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace. Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 1","listText":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent results. Revenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter. Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year. Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace. Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 1","text":"Alibaba Group Holdings started the new fiscal year quarter 1 reporting for FY2022 by delivering a pretty decent results. Revenue for the quarter is at US$31.8 billion, which represents a 34% increase year on year. This includes the consolidation of Sun Art, which was consolidated into the Group numbers from previous quarter. Without Sun Art, revenue would have grown 22% year on year. Monthly Active Customer (MAU) for the platform ecosystem grew to 1.18 billion globally, which is an increase of over 45 million from the previous year. This is broken down into 912m for China consumers and 265 International consumers outside China. Inside China's 912m active users, 828m is mostly engaged in Taobao and Tmall - a dominant China retail marketplace. Income from operations and EBITDA decreased by 1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807919017","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189093449,"gmtCreate":1623230701181,"gmtModify":1631893073936,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>My favourite. Steady&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>My favourite. Steady&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$My favourite. 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But no recommendation, do&nbsp;your own homework and manage your portfolio","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETSY\">$Etsy(ETSY)$</a>&nbsp;a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do&nbsp;your own homework and manage your portfolio","text":"$Etsy(ETSY)$ a stock that I think really not bad. But no recommendation, do your own homework and manage your portfolio","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e8121056b0b13493686fa65c3d4ee0c","width":"1080","height":"3870"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880995991","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167289407,"gmtCreate":1624270554809,"gmtModify":1631890026573,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it goes up again?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Will it goes up again?&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Will it goes up again?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc912bcb850e7afa73208d227b55c19","width":"1080","height":"2492"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167289407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140428262,"gmtCreate":1625669460156,"gmtModify":1631890026569,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[思考]&nbsp;","listText":"[思考]&nbsp;","text":"[思考]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140428262","repostId":"1106187901","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855313346,"gmtCreate":1635335470630,"gmtModify":1635335475997,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>&nbsp;shooting up 🎉🚀","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQ\">$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$</a>&nbsp;shooting up 🎉🚀","text":"$Marqeta, Inc.(MQ)$ shooting up 🎉🚀","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d698a9ba549fce64f356e1b81467d632","width":"1080","height":"3969"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855313346","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185102757,"gmtCreate":1623635570879,"gmtModify":1631890026588,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;good to hold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>&nbsp;good to hold","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ good to hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185102757","repostId":"1135926549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135926549","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623630467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135926549?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-14 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135926549","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise so","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>  <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>  <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>  <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>  <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管Palantir Technologies的股票引起了轩然大波，但它只是一家企业软件企业，而且是一家不错的企业。</li><li>财务基本面比该公司通常被认为的要好得多，而且我们认为股价处于有吸引力的买入点。</li><li>在我们看来，这个名字的关键是忽略你选择的股票板上的所有噪音。</li><li>展望五年后，我们认为这只股票可能会成为巨大的赢家，因此我们将这个名字保存在员工个人账户中。</li><li>我们维持对Palantir的买入评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Palantirian一样制作——关注信号，而不是噪音</b></blockquote></p><p> If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p><p><blockquote>如果您与Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈（我们已经这样做了），他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要好处是它能够将来自多个来源的数据汇集在一起并理解所有这些既快速又轻松。它不需要坐在地下室的大量业务或数据分析师来制作顶层大办公室的人们可以理解的报告。这意味着，如果部署正确，这些产品将提供分析公司的梦想，因为“提取、转换、加载”是新的和酷的时代——降低报告制作的成本，提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个不认为该软件让他们的业务变得更好的用户交谈过。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有与任何人交谈。</blockquote></p><p> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p><p><blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长孕育期内培养了“黑魔法大师”的声誉，部分原因是由于时代精神，Palantir是一只非常受欢迎的股票，似乎也引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这种企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该板上拥有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，这一数字是微软的一半，而且可能更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。还是那句话，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote></p><p> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p><p><blockquote>如果你拥有或者正在考虑这样做，我们劝你退后一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待这些数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们非常喜欢的名字。当股票暴跌时，我们会放松；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们就会放松。我们认为，Palantir是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在你读完我们的分析后，我们可以给你留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪音。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以支付你做同样的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变情况。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p><p><blockquote>正是波动性导致了一些股票董事会的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说，到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，自那时以来，该股上涨了150%，而主要指数的总回报率为20%左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和QQQ ETF上面分别作为S&amp;P 500和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote></p><p> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果你看短期，自2021年2月高点以来，你会发现短期持有者有更多担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始至今。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p><p><blockquote>由于不可避免地，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着有许多持有者坐在亏损并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收了损失。和往常一样，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信Palantir股票有着非常光明的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p><p><blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的SEC报告需要时间来建立过去的画面。在3-4个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度历史以及增长飞轮的运行情况。首先，收入降至EBITDA。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p><p><blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值型股票是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，在我们看来，这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir的估值倍数最近大幅上升，部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的PLTR自身增长率的改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p><p><blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到非常愤怒——是股票X<i>真的</i>价值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？——但事实上，这并不科学。在成长型股票的牛市中，你增长得越快，利润越高，对未来增长的了解越多，你的股票相对于其他此类股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付10倍TTM收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，大量交易的价格是40倍TTM收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为折现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何方式，EBITDA和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为DCF与估值增长名称和公司标志的颜色一样相关，我们没有注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同的企业来说，TTM收入是35倍，具有产生会计和现金利润的能力，并且第一季度的收入比上一年增长了49%？在当前的市场背景下，这对我们来说似乎很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p><p><blockquote>那么，Palantir是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标帮助很少，12个月后的目标范围似乎在17-30美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础！）.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 5年后股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们听取了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的长期增长率目标是30%），但拒绝了他们<i>向上</i>一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的EBITDA利润率，将其限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说是正确的水平——20%——如果PLTR将大部分服务工作移交给顾问合作伙伴，他们很有可能超越这一水平随着时间的推移，但目前我们假设终端EBITDA利润率为20%。然后，我们指定一个谨慎的EBITDA转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（=EBITDA-资本支出-营运资本变化）的比率，以便大约20%的EBITDA以某种方式泄漏到乙醚中。（这只是一种保守地模拟现金生成的方法。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会出现在资产负债表上的坏账或巨额预付款或其他东西中。是建模装置，不是真的）。</blockquote></p><p> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p><p><blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>其中估值倍数<i>做</i>物质在你买入股票和卖出股票之间的传播方向上。如果倍数扩大，这是你所希望的最大的免费资金来源。炼金术没有任何关于倍数膨胀的东西。如果它们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟的是，会下跌。从基本面角度来看，这是长期投资者需要询问PLTR股票的关键问题。在我们看来，该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自市盈率是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的5年展望中，我们假设这些市盈率将有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储窃窃私语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持持平。谁知道呢。但你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote></p><p> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p><p><blockquote>将所有这些因素放在一起可能会导致价格从今天的24美元上涨到2024年的50美元左右，并在2025年上涨到60美元左右。现在，与他们中最好的人一起玩模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内让你的钱翻倍并没有那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为主要风险相当简单。第一，公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越多的纯软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来盈利——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上述假设软件商业模式的倍数那样。第二，这些倍数能持续下去吗？因此，每季度一次，在我们对业务的现场报道中，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与UFCF利润率（这告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力所需了解的所有信息），以及成长型公司的现行市场倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p><p><blockquote>图表分析与PLTR的近期前景特别相关，而PLTR本身也与长期前景相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的，比如“它再也不会看到40美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场正在解冻，但该股仍略低于25美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的需求和供给。下面的图表向您展示了在25美元邮政编码中有一个<i>整体</i>过去交易了很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面的16.8万粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年H1那样大幅下跌，然后回来时，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了赚回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了口气，以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR，开始抛售，因为有一次他们看着17美元的手柄说，请不要现在给我看涨期权的保证金，非常好。</blockquote></p><p> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但就像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想并思考它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的了。</blockquote></p><p> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为股票图表是废话，事实并非如此。如果准备得当，他们有时会告诉你<i>很多</i>关于一只股票未来的走向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种已经忘乎所以的幼儿园填色比赛，也请容忍我们。</blockquote></p><p> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦PLTR升至30美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们50-60美元/股是可能的，我们的图表显示30美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是一项非常好的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经想通了，要么更有可能（2）因为你是一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>  <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>  <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>  <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>  <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤位。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你看看该股从低点到高点的上涨，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于（i）绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是（ii）每个人都根据Fib水平进行交易的事实，你可以看到PLTR在下跌的过程中找到支撑，首先是在2月份短暂的50%回撤位（=损失了上涨时获得的价值的一半），然后在2月底迅速跌至61.8%回撤位，并在该回撤位附近徘徊，直到5月初，然后它真正开始挖掘，几乎触及78.6%回撤位。这是一次大规模的ol抛售，无论以何种标准衡量都太多了，这就是为什么你会在5月11日看到如此大而快速的逆转。考虑到小幅波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。这些从右向左突出的蓝色和黄色线告诉您在任何给定价格下股票的历史交易量。黑色粗横线即为“控制点”即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你瞧，在上升的支撑线和控制线之间，你可以看到股票在上涨，并希望突破控制线的那个点。正如您所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们<i>爱</i>股票图表，因为它们有时揭示的魔力。</li><li>Palantir股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨时，都会有很多人说，唷，加倍唷，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但在我们看来，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，第一，市场对成长型股票的兴趣正在升温，第二，PLTR的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到你看到交易股票相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的持续供应可能会枯竭。和<i>那个</i>意味着该股从30-40美元上涨比从20-30美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，成长股升温。股票图表显示，现在只要再往前一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，“弱手”提供更多的待售股票，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您以40美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景），我们认为PLTR股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场正在改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然对该股产生热情，一大群机构可能会在此盘整期间买入。购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock In 5 Years: What To Consider<blockquote>Palantir股票5年后：需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 08:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.</li>  <li>Financial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.</li>  <li>In our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.</li>  <li>Looking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.</li>  <li>We remain at Buy on Palantir.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb61d2356557cc39d32afc673a3ff65b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管Palantir Technologies的股票引起了轩然大波，但它只是一家企业软件企业，而且是一家不错的企业。</li><li>财务基本面比该公司通常被认为的要好得多，而且我们认为股价处于有吸引力的买入点。</li><li>在我们看来，这个名字的关键是忽略你选择的股票板上的所有噪音。</li><li>展望五年后，我们认为这只股票可能会成为巨大的赢家，因此我们将这个名字保存在员工个人账户中。</li><li>我们维持对Palantir的买入评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kanawatvector/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Make Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>像Palantirian一样制作——关注信号，而不是噪音</b></blockquote></p><p> If you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.</p><p><blockquote>如果您与Palantir Technologies（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）软件的用户交谈（我们已经这样做了），他们会告诉您该公司技术的主要好处是它能够将来自多个来源的数据汇集在一起并理解所有这些既快速又轻松。它不需要坐在地下室的大量业务或数据分析师来制作顶层大办公室的人们可以理解的报告。这意味着，如果部署正确，这些产品将提供分析公司的梦想，因为“提取、转换、加载”是新的和酷的时代——降低报告制作的成本，提高这些报告的可操作性。到目前为止，我们还没有和一个不认为该软件让他们的业务变得更好的用户交谈过。毫无疑问，有一些不满意的用户，但我们还没有与任何人交谈。</blockquote></p><p> Partly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.</p><p><blockquote>部分原因是管理团队自己创造的（“我们热爱散户投资者”），部分原因是该公司在作为一家私营、中央情报局支持的企业的漫长孕育期内培养了“黑魔法大师”的声誉，部分原因是由于时代精神，Palantir是一只非常受欢迎的股票，似乎也引起了股东和非股东的焦虑。去看看你最喜欢的股票板，看看尖叫声。我们选择的毒药是StockTwits上的PLTR板，就在这里。我们可以以此为例，说明人们对这种企业软件股票的兴趣异常高。它在该板上拥有16.8万名粉丝，与平台上的其他粉丝相比，这一数字是微软的一半，而且可能更相关，是当前最受欢迎的迷因AMC的一半以上。帖子绝对令人窒息。还是那句话，这是一家企业软件公司，而不是山寨币。</blockquote></p><p> If you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.</p><p><blockquote>如果你拥有或者正在考虑这样做，我们劝你退后一步，冷静下来，冷静地看待这些数字和股票图表。这是我们的方法，它导致这个名字成为我们非常喜欢的名字。当股票暴跌时，我们会放松；如果它在未来几天和几周内上升，我们就会放松。我们认为，Palantir是一只非常强劲的长期持有股票。如果在你读完我们的分析后，我们可以给你留下一个想法，那就是：关注信号，忽略噪音。毕竟，这就是Palantir Technologies客户付费帮助他们做的事情。作为股东？股票可以支付你做同样的事情。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.</p><p><blockquote>我们先来看看PLTR的股价及其自去年直接上市以来的演变情况。简而言之，它相当不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c352517d3fdee0325a7ed80cfe61207\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&amp;P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).</p><p><blockquote>正是波动性导致了一些股票董事会的尖叫。但如果你退后一步，你会说，到目前为止，这是一次非常成功的直接上市，自那时以来，该股上涨了150%，而主要指数的总回报率为20%左右（我们使用SPDR标普500指数ETF和QQQ ETF上面分别作为S&amp;P 500和纳斯达克的代理）。</blockquote></p><p> If you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.</p><p><blockquote>如果你看短期，自2021年2月高点以来，你会发现短期持有者有更多担忧的理由。这张图表从今年2月1日开始至今。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b6e221de3f33956330342f0010cb029\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.</p><p><blockquote>由于不可避免地，许多人在接近运行顶部时买入，这意味着有许多持有者坐在亏损并希望复苏，可能还有许多人已经卖出，吸收了损失。和往常一样，如果你放大得太远，你可能会错过大局。我们相信Palantir股票有着非常光明的未来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> By way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.</p><p><blockquote>作为背景，这是PLTR上的数字。下表是不完整的，因为作为一个新问题，该公司的SEC报告需要时间来建立过去的画面。在3-4个季度的时间里，我们将能够更清楚地了解季度历史以及增长飞轮的运行情况。首先，收入降至EBITDA。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ef965d0aa18087da24ed87c59e9377a\" tg-width=\"505\" tg-height=\"680\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.</p><p><blockquote>现在，资本支出降至净债务和剩余履约义务。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07de8f157aa9059c61db0a5fdcacbcc4\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"411\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.</p><p><blockquote>2021年上半年的特点是成长型股票大幅抛售，价值型股票是主要受益者。最近几周，市场对成长型公司变得更加友好，在我们看来，这种情况将持续到今年剩余时间。Palantir的估值倍数最近大幅上升，部分反映了市场对成长型公司的升温，部分反映了您在上面看到的PLTR自身增长率的改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eade11b880c661731fab7c27c81d528f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source: YCharts.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Folks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock X<i>really</i>worth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.</p><p><blockquote>人们对估值倍数感到非常愤怒——是股票X<i>真的</i>价值Y倍收入还是Z倍现金流？——但事实上，这并不科学。在成长型股票的牛市中，你增长得越快，利润越高，对未来增长的了解越多，你的股票相对于其他此类股票就越贵。在估值中，一切都是相对的，没有绝对。十年前，为一家软件公司支付10倍TTM收入被认为是昂贵的，而今天，大量交易的价格是40倍TTM收入以上。事情就是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir today trades at the following multiples:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir今天的交易倍数如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddbc7d4aca650c4e6b406c336671ec9b\" tg-width=\"246\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为折现现金流是衡量股票估值的任何方式，EBITDA和现金流倍数显然是荒谬的，但由于我们认为DCF与估值增长名称和公司标志的颜色一样相关，我们没有注意到这一点。对于一家拥有长期政府和企业合同的企业来说，TTM收入是35倍，具有产生会计和现金利润的能力，并且第一季度的收入比上一年增长了49%？在当前的市场背景下，这对我们来说似乎很好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir A Long-Term Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir是长期股票吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> So, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.</p><p><blockquote>那么，Palantir是一只好的长期股票吗？我们发现卖方分析师的目标帮助很少，12个月后的目标范围似乎在17-30美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f3ef1518eb94d1152c976ad16e462bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"223\"><span>Source: TipRanks</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TipRanks</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为答案在于进行两种实际分析（而不是仅仅决定股票可能上涨几美元或下跌几美元，这似乎是价格目标的基础！）.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 5年后股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamental Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本面分析</b></blockquote></p><p> The first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked them<i>up</i>a little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).</p><p><blockquote>我们认为在这里有帮助的第一种分析是考虑基本面。在这里，我们听取了管理团队对可能的远期增长率的评论（他们的长期增长率目标是30%），但拒绝了他们<i>向上</i>一点是因为我们认为团队有点沙袋。然后，我们分配不断上升的EBITDA利润率，将其限制在过去对于运营良好的企业软件和服务业务来说是正确的水平——20%——如果PLTR将大部分服务工作移交给顾问合作伙伴，他们很有可能超越这一水平随着时间的推移，但目前我们假设终端EBITDA利润率为20%。然后，我们指定一个谨慎的EBITDA转换为无杠杆税前自由现金流（=EBITDA-资本支出-营运资本变化）的比率，以便大约20%的EBITDA以某种方式泄漏到乙醚中。（这只是一种保守地模拟现金生成的方法。如果20%在某个地方泄露，它会出现在资产负债表上的坏账或巨额预付款或其他东西中。是建模装置，不是真的）。</blockquote></p><p> Back to valuation multiples for a moment.</p><p><blockquote>暂时回到估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Where valuation multiples<i>do</i>matter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.</p><p><blockquote>其中估值倍数<i>做</i>物质在你买入股票和卖出股票之间的传播方向上。如果倍数扩大，这是你所希望的最大的免费资金来源。炼金术没有任何关于倍数膨胀的东西。如果它们压缩，你可以拥有一家财务报表表现出色的公司，但其股票可能根本不会上涨，或者更糟的是，会下跌。从基本面角度来看，这是长期投资者需要询问PLTR股票的关键问题。在我们看来，该公司将继续表现良好。回报的主要风险来自市盈率是扩大、压缩还是保持在水平。在我们的5年展望中，我们假设这些市盈率将有所下降。这不是基于任何美联储窃窃私语、通胀分析、货币流通速度调查或类似的东西。这只是一个适度谨慎的建模设备。倍数可能会上升很多，下降很多，保持持平。谁知道呢。但你必须提出一些假设来根据基本面预测股票，所以，这些是我们的工作假设。</blockquote></p><p> Put all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.</p><p><blockquote>将所有这些因素放在一起可能会导致价格从今天的24美元上涨到2024年的50美元左右，并在2025年上涨到60美元左右。现在，与他们中最好的人一起玩模因股票相比，这并不是很令人兴奋。但与大多数股票投资时期相比，三年内让你的钱翻倍并没有那么糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d4e004057976b6da047f994b01b5a99\" tg-width=\"439\" tg-height=\"288\"><span>Source: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司SEC文件、YCharts.com、Cestrian Analysis</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面的角度来看，我们认为主要风险相当简单。第一，公司能否走出自己的路，也就是说，它能否执行越来越多的纯软件模式，向集成商合作伙伴提供越来越多的服务。我们真的不希望看到该公司通过出售咨询时间来盈利——这是不可扩展的，因此不值得像上述假设软件商业模式的倍数那样。第二，这些倍数能持续下去吗？因此，每季度一次，在我们对业务的现场报道中，这就是我们所关注的。收入增长与毛利率与UFCF利润率（这告诉您有关收入类型及其估值潜力所需了解的所有信息），以及成长型公司的现行市场倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>图表分析</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been a<i>whole</i>lot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.</p><p><blockquote>图表分析与PLTR的近期前景特别相关，而PLTR本身也与长期前景相关，因为对这个名字的普遍看法往往是高度分析性的，比如“它再也不会看到40美元了，哈哈”。尽管基本面有所改善且成长型股票市场正在解冻，但该股仍略低于25美元，这一事实并不是什么魔法。只是简单的需求和供给。下面的图表向您展示了在25美元邮政编码中有一个<i>整体</i>过去交易了很多股票。我们知道PLTR是零售业的最爱——上面的16.8万粉丝数量告诉你这一点。我们知道钻石手在散户投资者中是一个神话。当市场像2021年H1那样大幅下跌，然后回来时，你经常会发现人们非常高兴，只是为了赚回他们的钱，或者大部分钱。人们松了口气，以25-30美元的价格购买了PLTR，开始抛售，因为有一次他们看着17美元的手柄说，请不要现在给我看涨期权的保证金，非常好。</blockquote></p><p> This chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.</p><p><blockquote>这张图表看起来非常复杂，但就像所有股票图表一样，一旦你解放思想并思考它告诉你市场参与者在做什么，它就不是真的了。</blockquote></p><p> If you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you a<i>lot</i>about the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为股票图表是废话，事实并非如此。如果准备得当，他们有时会告诉你<i>很多</i>关于一只股票未来的走向。所以，即使你认为这只是某种已经忘乎所以的幼儿园填色比赛，也请容忍我们。</blockquote></p><p> We think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为PLTR上的这张图表很漂亮。因为我们认为它告诉你，在任何类型的市场顺风下，一旦PLTR升至30美元左右，它就可以飞得更远。更远。由于我们的基本面分析告诉我们50-60美元/股是可能的，我们的图表显示30美元是可以克服的，这对我们来说是另一个证据，表明这可能是一项非常好的长期投资。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46156df04fcc804d791f980313140d41\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"299\"><span>Source: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView、Cestrian分析</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Now, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果你是一个真正的技术分析师，你可以跳过下面的内容，因为要么（1）你已经想通了，要么更有可能（2）因为你是一个真正的技术分析师，你对图表有不同的更好的看法。我们不是技术分析师。我们只是喜欢摆弄克雷奥拉。但这是我们的看法：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>This chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.</li>  <li>The wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.</li>  <li>The upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.</li>  <li>Now the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why we<i>love</i>stock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.</li>  <li>Palantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. And<i>that</i>means the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.</li> </ul> So, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>这张图表显示了从直接上市到今天的整个时期。</li><li>宽彩色水平带显示了所谓的斐波那契回撤位。这是一种复杂的说法，如果你看看该股从低点到高点的上涨，那么在回落的过程中，它可能会在什么水平找到支撑？由于（i）绝对数字和哺乳动物大脑结构之间的一些知之甚少（不，真的），更重要的是（ii）每个人都根据Fib水平进行交易的事实，你可以看到PLTR在下跌的过程中找到支撑，首先是在2月份短暂的50%回撤位（=损失了上涨时获得的价值的一半），然后在2月底迅速跌至61.8%回撤位，并在该回撤位附近徘徊，直到5月初，然后它真正开始挖掘，几乎触及78.6%回撤位。这是一次大规模的ol抛售，无论以何种标准衡量都太多了，这就是为什么你会在5月11日看到如此大而快速的逆转。考虑到小幅波动，该股此后一直在上涨。</li><li>图表右侧向上倾斜的粗黑线显示了整个五月和六月的支撑位上升。该股每天都在创下更高的低点，这是看涨的。</li><li>现在有趣的部分。这些从右向左突出的蓝色和黄色线告诉您在任何给定价格下股票的历史交易量。黑色粗横线即为“控制点”即。所有这些销售的重心。而且，你瞧，在上升的支撑线和控制线之间，你可以看到股票在上涨，并希望突破控制线的那个点。正如您所看到的，这是一条可以追溯到2020年11月的阻力或支撑线。这就是为什么我们<i>爱</i>股票图表，因为它们有时揭示的魔力。</li><li>Palantir股票目前正处于多头和空头之间的交火之中。每次价格上涨时，都会有很多人说，唷，加倍唷，我拿回了我的钱或大部分钱，然后卖掉了。这种急于清算的行为阻碍了该股的上涨。但在我们看来，待售股票的供应迟早会枯竭。因为，第一，市场对成长型股票的兴趣正在升温，第二，PLTR的基本面表现良好，市场情绪可能会有所改善。因此，如果该股能够上涨到你看到交易股票相对较少、失望的所有者相对较少的水平——30美元区域及以上——那么我们认为“待售”股票的持续供应可能会枯竭。和<i>那个</i>意味着该股从30-40美元上涨比从20-30美元上涨要容易得多。</li></ul>所以，我们的观点很简单。公司基本面强劲且不断改善。市场背景，成长股升温。股票图表显示，现在只要再往前一点，就像迷因兄弟会喜欢说的那样，“弱手”提供更多的待售股票，然后这只股票就可以真正上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir股票现在是买入、卖出还是持有？</b></blockquote></p><p> If you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.</p><p><blockquote>如果您以40美元左右的价格购买了股票，而您最好的朋友变成了克星的经纪人打电话要求退还保证金，那么，您可能别无选择。但如果你在这件事上确实有选择，并且你的时间范围比周末更长（尽管有钻石手，这似乎是模因社区的前景），我们认为PLTR股票是一个响亮的买入。基本面良好，图表良好，市场正在改善，一旦该股开始走势，一大群散户投资者可能会突然对该股产生热情，一大群机构可能会在此盘整期间买入。购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434399-palantir-stock-5-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135926549","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies, for all the furore surrounding the stock, is simply an enterprise software business, and a good one to boot.\nFinancial fundamentals are much better than the company is usually given credit for, and the stock price is, we believe, at an attractive buy point.\nIn our view, the key with this name is to ignore all the noise on your stock board of choice.\nLooking five years out, we think this stock can be a huge winner, and we hold the name in staff personal accounts as a result.\nWe remain at Buy on Palantir.\n\nkanawatvector/iStock via Getty Images\nMake Like A Palantirian - Focus On The Signal, Not The Noise\nIf you talk to users of Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR)software, and we have, they will tell you that the main benefit of the company's technology is that it is able to pull together data from multiple sources and make sense of it all both quickly and easily. It does not require armies of business or data analysts sat in the basement to produce reports digestible by the folks in the big offices on the top floor. This means that correctly deployed, the products offer the dream of analytics companies since the days when \"extract, transform, load\" was new and cool - reduced cost of report production and increased actionability of those reports. Thus far we have yet to talk to a user that didn't think the software had changed their business for the better. No doubt there are some dissatisfied users, but we've yet to speak to any.\nPartly of the management team's own making (\"we love retail investors\"), partly due to the \"master of the dark arts\" reputation the company had fostered during its long gestation period as a privately-owned, CIA-backed business, and partly due to the zeitgeist, Palantir is an incredibly well-followed stock and one that seemingly causes angst amongst shareholders and non-shareholders alike. Just go check your favorite stock board and see the screeching. Our choice of poison is the PLTR board on StockTwits, which ishere. We can use this as an example of the strangely high level of interest in this enterprise software stock. It has 168k followers on that board, which compared to others on the platform is half as many as Microsoft and perhaps of more relevance, more than half as many as the current meme favorite, AMC. And the posts are absolutely breathless. Again, this is an enterprise software company, not an altcoin.\nIf you own PLTR stock or are thinking of doing so, our exhortation to you would be to take a step back, calm down, and with a cool head look at the numbers and the stock chart. This is our approach, and it has lead to the name being a high-conviction favorite of ours. When the stock has swooned, we're relaxed; if it moves up in the coming days and weeks, we'll be relaxed. Palantir is, we think, a very strong long term hold stock. If we can leave you with one thought after you read our analysis, it would be: focus on the signal, ignore the noise. And that, after all, is what Palantir Technologies customers pay it to help them do. As a shareholder? The stock can pay you for doing the same.\nPLTR Stock Price\nLet's first take a look at PLTR's stock price and its evolution since the direct listing last year. It has, in short, been rather volatile.\nSource: YCharts.com\nIt's the volatility that leads to some of the stock board screeching. But if you just step back you would say that thus far this has been a terrifically successful direct listing, with the stock up 150% since then, versus mid-20s% total returns from the main indices (we use the SPY and QQQ ETFs above as proxies for the S&P500 and the Nasdaq respectively).\nIf you look shorter term, since the February 2021 highs, you can see more cause for concern among short-term holders. This chart runs from 1 February this year, to date.\nSource: YCharts.com\nSince, inevitably, many people buy near the top of a run, this means there are many holders sat on a loss and hoping for a recovery, and probably many that have sold, absorbing the loss. As always, if you zoom too far in, you can miss the big picture. We believe Palantir stock has a very bright future.\nPalantir Valuation\nBy way of background, here's the numbers on PLTR. The table below is patchy because as a new issue, it takes time for the company's SEC reports to build up a picture of the past. In 3-4 quarters' time we will be able to see a much clearer picture of the quarter-to-quarter history and how the growth flywheel is moving. First, revenue down to EBITDA.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, capex down to net debt and remaining performance obligation.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe first half of 2021 has been characterized by a material selloff in growth names, with value stocks being the principal beneficiary. In recent weeks, the market has become a little kinder to growth names and in our house view, that will persist for the remainder of the year. Palantir's valuation multiples have moved up materially of late, which partly reflects the market's warming towards growth names, and partly the improvement in PLTR's own growth rates that you see above.\nSource: YCharts.com\nFolks get all steamed up about valuation multiples - is stock Xreallyworth Y times revenue or Z times cashflow? - but in truth, there is no science to it. In a bull market for growth names, the faster you grow and the more profitably you do it and the more visibility you have into future growth, the more expensive your stock, relative to other such stocks. In valuation, everything is relative, there are no absolutes. Ten years ago, paying 10x TTM revenue for a software company was considered expensive, today, plenty trade at 40x TTM revenue plus. It just is what it is.\nPalantir today trades at the following multiples:\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nThe EBITDA and cashflow multiples are clearly absurd if you think that discounted cashflow is any kind of way to measure stock valuations, but since we think DCF is about as relevant to valuing growth names as is the color of the company's logo, we don't take any notice of that. 35x TTM revenue for a business with long-lived government and corporate contracts, the demonstrated ability to generate both accounting and cash profits, and growing revenue at 49% in Q1 vs the prior year Q1? In the current market context that seems fine to us.\nIs Palantir A Long-Term Stock?\nSo, is Palantir a good long-term stock? We find scant assistance from sell-side analyst targets which seem to range from $17-30 looking twelve months out.\nSource: TipRanks\nWe think the answer lies in doing two kinds of actual analysis (as opposed to just deciding the stock might move up a few dollars or down a few dollars which appears to be the basis of price targets!).\nPalantir Stock Forecast In 5 Years\nFundamental Analysis\nThe first kind of analysis we think is helpful here is to consider the fundamentals. Here we take the management team's commentary on likely forward growth rates (they target 30% long-run growth), but jacked themupa little because we think the team is sandbagging somewhat. We then assign rising EBITDA margins, cap them at what used to be about right for a well-run enterprise software and services business - 20% - it's quite possible that PLTR can beat this if they hand over much of the services work to consultant partners over time, but let's say 20% terminal EBITDA margins for now. Then we assign a cautious rate of conversion of EBITDA into unlevered pre-tax free cashflow (= EBITDA - capex - change in working capital) such that around 20% of EBITDA leaks into the ether somehow. (This is just a way to model cash generation conservatively. If 20% leaked somewhere it would show up on the balance sheet in poor receivables or huge prepayments or something else. It's a modeling device, it's not real).\nBack to valuation multiples for a moment.\nWhere valuation multiplesdomatter is in the direction of travel between the time you buy a stock and the time you sell it. If multiples expand, that is the greatest source of free money you ever could hope for. Alchemy has nothing on multiple expansion. And if they compress, you can own a company performing wonderfully on its financial statements yet its stock may just not move up at all, or, worse, go down. From a fundamentals perspective, this is the key question long term investors need to ask of PLTR stock. In our house view the company will continue to perform well. The principal risk to returns comes from whether multiples will expand, compress, or stay level. In our 5-year outlook we assume those multiples will tail off somewhat. That's not based on any Fed-whispering, inflation analysis, velocity of money circulation enquiry or anything like that. It's just a modestly cautious modeling device. Multiples could go up a lot, down a lot, stay flat. Who knows. But you have to come up with some assumptions to forecast a stock on fundamentals, so, these are our working assumptions.\nPut all that stuff together could point to a runup from $24 today to $50 or so in 2024, and on to $60 or so in 2025. Now, compared to playingmeme stockswith the best of them, that's not very exciting. But compared to most periods of investing in stocks, doubling your money in three years isn't so bad.\nSource: Company SEC filings,YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nFrom a fundamentals point of view, we see the key risks as fairly simple. One, can the company get out of its own way, meaning, can it execute an increasing pure software model, farming more and more services out to integrator partners. We really do not want to see the company making its numbers by selling consulting time - that's not scalable and is as a result not worth anything like the kinds of multiples above, which assume a software business model. And two, will those multiples hold up. So, quarter to quarter, in our live coverage of the business, that's what we're looking at. Revenue growth vs. gross margin vs. UFCF margins (that tells you all you need to know about the type of revenue and its valuation potential), and, prevailing market multiples for growth names.\nChart Analysis\nChart analysis is particularly relevant to the near term outlook for PLTR and that is itself relevant to the long term, because very often the prevailing view on this name seems to be something highly analytical like, \"it will never see $40 again lol\". The fact that the stock is a little stuck below $25 despite improving fundamentals and a thawing market for growth names isn't any kind of magic. It's just simple demand and supply. The chart below shows you that in that $25 zip code there have been awholelot of shares traded in the past. And we know that PLTR is a favorite of retail - that 168k follower number above tells you that. And we know that diamond hands are something of a myth among retail investors. When markets drop hard like growth did in H1 2021, then come back, you very often can find folks very happy just to make their money back, or most of it. Relieved, having bought PLTR at say $25-30, folks start selling, because at one point they were looking at a $17 handle and saying, please don't send me a margin call now, pretty please.\nThis chart looks horribly complicated, but like all stock charts, it isn't really, once you free your mind and think about what it is telling you about what market participants are doing.\nIf you think stock charts are bunk, they aren't. Prepared correctly they can sometimes tell you alotabout the future direction of a stock. So, even if you think this is just some kind of kindergarten coloring-in contest which has gotten carried away with itself, bear with us.\nWe think this chart on PLTR is a beauty. Because we think it tells you that with any kind of market tailwind, once PLTR pushes up to $30 or so, it can fly much further. Much further. And since our fundamental analysis tells us that $50-60/share is possible, that our chart says that $30 is surmountable, is another piece of evidence for us that indicates this can be very good long term investment.\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nNow, if you are an actual technical analyst you can skip what follows because either (1) you already figured it or more likely (2) you have a different and better take on the chart on account of being an actual technical analyst. We aren't technical analysts. We just like messing about with Crayolas. But this is our take:\n\nThis chart shows the whole period from direct listing to today.\nThe wide colored horizontal bands show something called the Fibonacci retracement levels. That's a complicated way of saying, if you look at the runup of the stock from its lows to its highs, at what levels on the way back down is it likely to find support? Due to (i) some poorly-understood interlinking between absolute numbers and mammalian brain structure (no, really) and more importantly (ii) the fact that everybody trades according to Fib levels, you can see PLTR find support on the way back down at firstly the 50% retracement (= lost half the value gained on the runup) briefly during February, then it drops quickly to the 61.8% retracement level in late February and hovers around it till early May, whereupon it really starts digging and nearly hits the 78.6% retracement level. That is one big ol selloff, too much by any measure, which is why you see that big, fast reversal on May 11. And allowing for a little oscillation, the stock has moved up since then.\nThe upward-sloping thick black line on the right hand side of the chart shows you a rising support level through May and June. The stock is making higher lows each day, which is bullish.\nNow the interesting part. Those blue and yellow lines protruding from right to left tell you the historic volumes of stock traded at any given price. The thick black horizontal line is the \"point of control\" ie. the center of gravity of all those sales. And, lo and behold, between that rising support line and the point of control line, you can see the stock moving up and wanting to punch up through that point of control line. Which is, as you can see, a line of resistance or support stretching back to November 2020. This is why welovestock charts, because of the magic they sometimes reveal.\nPalantir stock is in a firefight between bulls and bears right now. Every time it moves up some, you have a whole lot of people saying, phew and double phew I got my money back or most of it, and selling. And that rush to liquidate is holding up the stock's move upwards. But sooner or later, in our view, the supply of shares for sale will dry up. Because, one, the market is warming to growth names and, two, PLTR is doing well on its fundamentals and is likely to see some improved sentiment around the market. So if the stock can push up to where you see relatively few stocks traded, relatively few disappointed owners - the $30 zone and beyond - then we think the relentless supply of \"for sale\" shares is likely to dry up. Andthatmeans the stock can move up much more easily from say $30-40 than it can from $20-30.\n\nSo, our view here is simple. Company fundamentals strong and improving. Market backdrop, warming towards growth names. Stock chart saying, just a little bit further now, just a little more supply of shares-for-sale from \"weak hands\" as the meme fraternity likes to say, and then this stock can really move up.\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy, Sell Or Hold Now?\nIf you bought the stock at $40-something and your best-friend-turned-nemesis broker is calling asking for their margin back, well, you may not have a choice. But if you do have a choice in the matter, and you have a time horizon longer than the weekend (which, diamond hands notwithstanding, seems to be the extent of the meme community's outlook), we think PLTR stock is a resounding Buy. Fundamentals good, chart good, market improving, whole bunch of retail investors likely to suddenly warm up to the stock once it does start making a move, whole bunch of institutions likely to be buying in during this consolidation period. Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186414447,"gmtCreate":1623521058089,"gmtModify":1631893073889,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186414447","repostId":"1104635261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104635261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623470020,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104635261?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 11:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>对冲基金对AMC的押注因模因股票交易员而瓦解</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104635261","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.\n\nA multipronged bet onAMC Enter","content":"<p>  <b>Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.</b>  A multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.</p><p><blockquote><b>Mudrick Capital的亏损显示了投资模因股票的风险。</b>本月，对AMC Entertainment HoldingsINC.AMC 15.39%的多管齐下的押注在Mudrick Capital Management LP上适得其反，Mudrick Capital Management LP是最新一家成为大量日内交易者受害者的对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，穆德里克的旗舰基金在短短几天内损失了约10%，因为AMC股价的上涨意外引发了该基金作为复杂交易策略一部分持有的衍生品价值的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，一群在社交媒体上组织的交易员帮助GameStopCorp.GME5.88%和其他股票的价格在1月份飙升，远远超出了许多投资者对基本面的看法。</blockquote></p><p> The development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>这一事态发展促使许多对冲基金削减了对模因股票的投资。Mudrick Capital的损失凸显了保留对此类公司的大量投资的风险有多大，甚至会对一位与个人投资者的看涨情绪基本同步的对冲基金经理产生适得其反的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Jason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司创始人杰森·穆德里克(Jason Mudrick)几个月来一直在交易AMC股票、期权和债券，个人投资者对这家连锁影院的热情高涨。但他也出售了看涨期权期权，这是一种衍生品合约，旨在对冲该基金在股价下跌时对AMC的敞口。知情人士称，这些衍生品合约赋予买家未来以大约40美元的价格从Mudrick购买AMC股票的权利，但当Reddit推动的购买热潮最近将AMC股票推至新纪录时，这些衍生品合约就变成了负债。</blockquote></p><p> As part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.</p><p><blockquote>作为更广泛的AMC战略的一部分，Mudrick Capital的高管正在与AMC就购买该公司的额外股票进行谈判。6月1日，AMC披露，Mudrick Capital已同意以每股27.12美元的价格直接从该公司购买2.305亿美元的新股，高于当时的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克立即出售了该股票并获利，彭博新闻报道了这一快速抛售，并在社交媒体上引发了强烈反对。</blockquote></p><p> “Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.</p><p><blockquote>6月1日，Reddit华尔街博彩论坛上的一篇帖子写道：“穆德里克没有在背后捅AMC一刀……他们是搬起石头砸自己的脚。”当时的其他帖子称穆德里克为“失败者”、“人渣”和“一大堆没有未来的挥舞着的S-T”。论坛成员互相催促买入并持有。</blockquote></p><p> Inside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.</p><p><blockquote>随着AMC反弹势头增强，穆德里克内部的高管们越来越感到担忧。该公司的风险委员会于6月1日晚在该股收于32美元后召开会议，并决定在第二天退出所有债务和衍生品头寸。</blockquote></p><p> It was a day too late.</p><p><blockquote>晚了一天。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.</p><p><blockquote>6月2日，AMC股价在几个小时内突破40美元，触及72.62美元的盘中高点。在穆德里克资本促成的疯狂交易中，看涨期权期权价格飙升，到本周末，获胜的交易变成了失败，使该基金损失了数亿美元。Mudrick Capital出售的债务回报率约为5%，但考虑到期权交易后，该基金在AMC上的净亏损约为5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，穆德里克的基金今年仍上涨了约12%。与此同时，年初购买AMC股票并持有的投资者已上涨约2000%。</blockquote></p><p> The impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体推动的日内交易者的影响已成为今年市场的决定性发展，导致顶级对冲基金损失数十亿美元，引发国会听证会并受到美国证券交易委员会的审查。更多的对冲基金现在跟踪个人投资者在社交媒体上的情绪，更加关注市值较小的公司，这些公司的股价可能更容易受到个人投资者热情的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克先生专门从事不良债务投资，经常以高利率向陷入困境的公司提供贷款，或者在破产法庭上将其现有债务换成股权。Mudrick管理着全公司约35亿美元的投资，并通过此类交易所持有电子烟制造商NJOY Holdings Inc.和卫星通信公司GlobalStarInc.的大量非流动性股份。汇丰另类投资集团的数据显示，2018年至2020年，该旗舰基金的年回报率约为17%。</blockquote></p><p> But distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.</p><p><blockquote>但由于美联储的宽松资金甚至为陷入困境的公司提供了进入债务市场的机会，因此陷入困境的投资机会变得越来越难找到。穆德里克先生还探索了其他策略，成立了几家特殊目的收购公司，就AMC而言，最终通过大宗交易购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Mr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克最初将他的典型策略应用于AMC，以低至20美分的价格购买债券，在12月向该公司借出1亿美元，并将部分债券换成新股。在Covid-19大流行封锁期间，已经面临压力的影院上座率几乎完全消失，AMC股票交易价格低至2美元。他推断，随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，消费者今年将恢复对大屏幕娱乐的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.</p><p><blockquote>1月下旬，日内交易者首次在AMC进行了交易，在社交媒体上高呼#SaveAMC，并短暂将该股推升至20美元左右。AMC不断上涨的股票价值推高了债务价格——Mudrick Capital持有的一只债券在一周内翻了一番——很快就回报了Mudrick先生的看涨情绪。AMC利用其飙升的股价在1月底筹集了近10亿美元的新融资，使其能够避免此前预期的破产申请。</blockquote></p><p> Around that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.</p><p><blockquote>大约在那个时候，穆德里克先生出售了AMC股票的看涨期权期权，如果连锁影院确实面临问题，可以立即产生收入来抵消潜在的损失。衍生品让买家可以选择以40美元左右的价格从穆德里克资本手中购买AMC股票——当股票交易价格低于10美元时，这似乎是不太可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克先生与AMC首席执行官亚当·阿伦(Adam Aron)就提供额外资金保持联系，导致他最近购买了股票。但一位知情人士表示，作为一项保险政策，他保留了衍生品合约。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>对冲基金对AMC的押注因模因股票交易员而瓦解</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Bet by Hedge Fund Unravels Thanks to Meme-Stock Traders<blockquote>对冲基金对AMC的押注因模因股票交易员而瓦解</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-12 11:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.</b>  A multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.</p><p><blockquote><b>Mudrick Capital的亏损显示了投资模因股票的风险。</b>本月，对AMC Entertainment HoldingsINC.AMC 15.39%的多管齐下的押注在Mudrick Capital Management LP上适得其反，Mudrick Capital Management LP是最新一家成为大量日内交易者受害者的对冲基金。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士称，穆德里克的旗舰基金在短短几天内损失了约10%，因为AMC股价的上涨意外引发了该基金作为复杂交易策略一部分持有的衍生品价值的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>几个月前，一群在社交媒体上组织的交易员帮助GameStopCorp.GME5.88%和其他股票的价格在1月份飙升，远远超出了许多投资者对基本面的看法。</blockquote></p><p> The development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>这一事态发展促使许多对冲基金削减了对模因股票的投资。Mudrick Capital的损失凸显了保留对此类公司的大量投资的风险有多大，甚至会对一位与个人投资者的看涨情绪基本同步的对冲基金经理产生适得其反的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Jason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.</p><p><blockquote>该公司创始人杰森·穆德里克(Jason Mudrick)几个月来一直在交易AMC股票、期权和债券，个人投资者对这家连锁影院的热情高涨。但他也出售了看涨期权期权，这是一种衍生品合约，旨在对冲该基金在股价下跌时对AMC的敞口。知情人士称，这些衍生品合约赋予买家未来以大约40美元的价格从Mudrick购买AMC股票的权利，但当Reddit推动的购买热潮最近将AMC股票推至新纪录时，这些衍生品合约就变成了负债。</blockquote></p><p> As part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.</p><p><blockquote>作为更广泛的AMC战略的一部分，Mudrick Capital的高管正在与AMC就购买该公司的额外股票进行谈判。6月1日，AMC披露，Mudrick Capital已同意以每股27.12美元的价格直接从该公司购买2.305亿美元的新股，高于当时的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> Mudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克立即出售了该股票并获利，彭博新闻报道了这一快速抛售，并在社交媒体上引发了强烈反对。</blockquote></p><p> “Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.</p><p><blockquote>6月1日，Reddit华尔街博彩论坛上的一篇帖子写道：“穆德里克没有在背后捅AMC一刀……他们是搬起石头砸自己的脚。”当时的其他帖子称穆德里克为“失败者”、“人渣”和“一大堆没有未来的挥舞着的S-T”。论坛成员互相催促买入并持有。</blockquote></p><p> Inside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.</p><p><blockquote>随着AMC反弹势头增强，穆德里克内部的高管们越来越感到担忧。该公司的风险委员会于6月1日晚在该股收于32美元后召开会议，并决定在第二天退出所有债务和衍生品头寸。</blockquote></p><p> It was a day too late.</p><p><blockquote>晚了一天。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.</p><p><blockquote>6月2日，AMC股价在几个小时内突破40美元，触及72.62美元的盘中高点。在穆德里克资本促成的疯狂交易中，看涨期权期权价格飙升，到本周末，获胜的交易变成了失败，使该基金损失了数亿美元。Mudrick Capital出售的债务回报率约为5%，但考虑到期权交易后，该基金在AMC上的净亏损约为5.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一位知情人士表示，穆德里克的基金今年仍上涨了约12%。与此同时，年初购买AMC股票并持有的投资者已上涨约2000%。</blockquote></p><p> The impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体推动的日内交易者的影响已成为今年市场的决定性发展，导致顶级对冲基金损失数十亿美元，引发国会听证会并受到美国证券交易委员会的审查。更多的对冲基金现在跟踪个人投资者在社交媒体上的情绪，更加关注市值较小的公司，这些公司的股价可能更容易受到个人投资者热情的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克先生专门从事不良债务投资，经常以高利率向陷入困境的公司提供贷款，或者在破产法庭上将其现有债务换成股权。Mudrick管理着全公司约35亿美元的投资，并通过此类交易所持有电子烟制造商NJOY Holdings Inc.和卫星通信公司GlobalStarInc.的大量非流动性股份。汇丰另类投资集团的数据显示，2018年至2020年，该旗舰基金的年回报率约为17%。</blockquote></p><p> But distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.</p><p><blockquote>但由于美联储的宽松资金甚至为陷入困境的公司提供了进入债务市场的机会，因此陷入困境的投资机会变得越来越难找到。穆德里克先生还探索了其他策略，成立了几家特殊目的收购公司，就AMC而言，最终通过大宗交易购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Mr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克最初将他的典型策略应用于AMC，以低至20美分的价格购买债券，在12月向该公司借出1亿美元，并将部分债券换成新股。在Covid-19大流行封锁期间，已经面临压力的影院上座率几乎完全消失，AMC股票交易价格低至2美元。他推断，随着越来越多的美国人接种疫苗，消费者今年将恢复对大屏幕娱乐的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Day traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.</p><p><blockquote>1月下旬，日内交易者首次在AMC进行了交易，在社交媒体上高呼#SaveAMC，并短暂将该股推升至20美元左右。AMC不断上涨的股票价值推高了债务价格——Mudrick Capital持有的一只债券在一周内翻了一番——很快就回报了Mudrick先生的看涨情绪。AMC利用其飙升的股价在1月底筹集了近10亿美元的新融资，使其能够避免此前预期的破产申请。</blockquote></p><p> Around that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.</p><p><blockquote>大约在那个时候，穆德里克先生出售了AMC股票的看涨期权期权，如果连锁影院确实面临问题，可以立即产生收入来抵消潜在的损失。衍生品让买家可以选择以40美元左右的价格从穆德里克资本手中购买AMC股票——当股票交易价格低于10美元时，这似乎是不太可能的。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.</p><p><blockquote>穆德里克先生与AMC首席执行官亚当·阿伦(Adam Aron)就提供额外资金保持联系，导致他最近购买了股票。但一位知情人士表示，作为一项保险政策，他保留了衍生品合约。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-bet-by-hedge-fund-unravels-thanks-to-meme-stock-traders-11623431320?mod=markets_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/amc-bet-by-hedge-fund-unravels-thanks-to-meme-stock-traders-11623431320?mod=markets_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104635261","content_text":"Losses by Mudrick Capital show the risks of exposure to meme stocks.\n\nA multipronged bet onAMC Entertainment HoldingsInc.AMC15.39%boomeranged this month on Mudrick Capital Management LP, the latest hedge fund to fall victim to swarming day traders.\nMudrick’s flagship fund lost about 10% in just a few days as a jump in AMC’s stock price unexpectedly triggered changes in the value of derivatives the fund held as part of a complex trading strategy, people familiar with the matter said.\nThe setback comes months after a group of traders organizing on social media helped send the price ofGameStopCorp.GME5.88%and other stocks soaring in January, well beyond many investors’ views of underlying fundamentals.\nThe development prompted many hedge funds to slash their exposure to meme stocks. Mudrick Capital’s losses highlight how risky retaining significant exposure to such companies can be—even backfiring on a hedge-fund manager who was mostly in sync with the bullishness of individual investors.\nJason Mudrick, the firm’s founder, had been trading AMC stock, options and bonds for months, surfing a surge of enthusiasm for the theater chain among individual investors. But he also sold call options, derivative contracts meant to hedge the fund’s exposure to AMC should the stock price founder. Those derivative contracts, which gave its buyers the right to buy AMC stock from Mudrick at roughly $40 in the future, ballooned into liabilities when a resurgence ofReddit-fueled buyingrecently pushed AMC’s stock to new records, the people said.\nAs part of the broader AMC strategy, executives at Mudrick Capital were in talks with AMC to buy additional shares from the company in late May. On June 1, AMC disclosed that Mudrick Capital had agreed to buy $230.5 million of new stock directly from the company at $27.12 apiece, a premium over where it was then trading.\nMudrick immediately sold the stock at a profit, a quick flip that was reported by Bloomberg News and that sparked backlash on social media.\n“Mudrick didn’t stab AMC in the back…They shot themselves in the foot,” read one post on Reddit’s Wall Street Bets forum on June 1. Other posts around that time referenced Mudrick as “losers,” “scum bags” and “a large waving pile of s—t with no future.” Members of the forum urged each other to buy and hold.\nInside Mudrick, executives were growing apprehensive as the AMC rally gained steam. The firm’s risk committee met on the evening of June 1 after the stock closed at $32 and decided to exit all debt and derivative positions the following day.\nIt was a day too late.\nAMC’s stock price blew past $40in a matter of hours June 2, hitting an intraday high of $72.62.Call option prices soaredamid a frenzy of trading that Mudrick Capital contributed to and, by the end of the week, the winning trade had turned into a bust, costing the fund hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Mudrick Capital made a roughly 5% return on the debt it sold but after accounting for its options trade, the fund took a net loss of about 5.4% on AMC.\nMr. Mudrick’s fund is still up about 12% for the year, one of the people said. Meanwhile, investors who bought AMC stock at the start of the year and held on have gained about 2000%.\nThe impact of social media-fueled day traders has become a defining market development this year, costing top hedge funds billions of dollars in losses, sparking a congressional hearing anddrawing scrutinyfrom the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. More hedge funds now track individual investors’ sentiment on social media and pay greater attention to companies with smaller market values whose stock price may be more susceptible to the enthusiasms of individual investors.\nMr. Mudrick specializes in distressed debt investing, often lending to troubled companies at high interest rates or swapping their existing debt for equity in bankruptcy court. Mudrick manages about $3.5 billion in investments firmwide and holds large, illiquid stakes in E-cigarette maker NJOY Holdings Inc. and satellite communications companyGlobalstarInc.from such exchanges. The flagship fund reported returns of about 17% annually from 2018 to 2020, according to data from HSBC Alternative Investment Group.\nBut distressed investing opportunities have grownharder to findas easy money from the Federal Reserve has given even struggling companies open access to debt markets. Mr. Mudrick has explored other strategies, launching several special-purpose acquisition companiesand, in the case of AMC, ultimately buying stock in block trades.\nMr. Mudrick initially applied his typical playbook to AMC, buying bonds for as little as 20 cents on the dollar,lending the company $100 millionin December and swapping some bonds into new shares. Theater attendance, already under pressure, had disappeared almost entirely amid Covid-19 pandemic lockdowns, and AMC stock traded as low as $2. He reasoned that consumers would regain their appetite for big-screen entertainment this year as more Americans got vaccinated.\nDay traders took theirfirst run at AMC in late January, urging each other on with the social-media rallying cry of #SaveAMC and briefly lifting the stock to around $20. AMC’s rising equity value boosted debt prices—one bond Mudrick Capital owned doubled within a week—quickly rewarding Mr. Mudrick’s bullishness. AMC capitalized on its surging stock priceto raise nearly $1 billion in new financingin late January, enabling it to ward off a previously expected bankruptcy filing.\nAround that time, Mr. Mudrick sold call options on AMC stock, producing immediate income to offset potential losses if the theater chain did face problems. The derivatives gave buyers the option to buy AMC shares from Mudrick Capital for about $40—viewed as a seeming improbability when the stock was trading below $10.\nMr. Mudrick remained in contact with AMC Chief Executive Adam Aron about providing additional funding, leading to his recent share purchase. But he kept the derivative contracts outstanding as an insurance policy, one of the people familiar with the matter said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114057203,"gmtCreate":1623038332002,"gmtModify":1631893073971,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/114057203","repostId":"1170185754","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170185754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623037748,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170185754?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-07 11:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toshiba to buy back 6% of shares, pay special dividend<blockquote>东芝将回购6%股份并支付特别股息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170185754","media":"Reuters","summary":"TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp said on Monday it will buy back up to 6% of its outstanding shares wo","content":"<p>TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp said on Monday it will buy back up to 6% of its outstanding shares worth around 100 billion yen ($913 million), in line with its plans to boost shareholder returns.</p><p><blockquote>东京（路透社）-东芝公司周一表示，将回购最多6%的流通股，价值约1000亿日元（9.13亿美元），以符合其提高股东回报的计划。</blockquote></p><p>The Japanese industrial conglomerate will also allocate about 50 billion yen to pay a special dividend as \"some shareholders, mainly retail shareholders, prefer dividends\", it said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>这家日本工业集团在一份声明中表示，由于“一些股东，主要是散户股东，更喜欢股息”，还将拨款约500亿日元支付特别股息。</blockquote></p><p>Toshiba, which has been under pressure from activist shareholders, last month promised to return to shareholders a surplus of 150 billion yen against the appropriate shareholder equity level.</p><p><blockquote>一直受到激进股东压力的东芝上个月承诺，将向股东返还相对于适当股东权益水平的1500亿日元盈余。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toshiba to buy back 6% of shares, pay special dividend<blockquote>东芝将回购6%股份并支付特别股息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToshiba to buy back 6% of shares, pay special dividend<blockquote>东芝将回购6%股份并支付特别股息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-07 11:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp said on Monday it will buy back up to 6% of its outstanding shares worth around 100 billion yen ($913 million), in line with its plans to boost shareholder returns.</p><p><blockquote>东京（路透社）-东芝公司周一表示，将回购最多6%的流通股，价值约1000亿日元（9.13亿美元），以符合其提高股东回报的计划。</blockquote></p><p>The Japanese industrial conglomerate will also allocate about 50 billion yen to pay a special dividend as \"some shareholders, mainly retail shareholders, prefer dividends\", it said in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>这家日本工业集团在一份声明中表示，由于“一些股东，主要是散户股东，更喜欢股息”，还将拨款约500亿日元支付特别股息。</blockquote></p><p>Toshiba, which has been under pressure from activist shareholders, last month promised to return to shareholders a surplus of 150 billion yen against the appropriate shareholder equity level.</p><p><blockquote>一直受到激进股东压力的东芝上个月承诺，将向股东返还相对于适当股东权益水平的1500亿日元盈余。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toshiba-buy-back-6-shares-033708746.html\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TOSYY":"东芝"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toshiba-buy-back-6-shares-033708746.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170185754","content_text":"TOKYO (Reuters) - Toshiba Corp said on Monday it will buy back up to 6% of its outstanding shares worth around 100 billion yen ($913 million), in line with its plans to boost shareholder returns.The Japanese industrial conglomerate will also allocate about 50 billion yen to pay a special dividend as \"some shareholders, mainly retail shareholders, prefer dividends\", it said in a statement.Toshiba, which has been under pressure from activist shareholders, last month promised to return to shareholders a surplus of 150 billion yen against the appropriate shareholder equity level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TOSYY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815580682,"gmtCreate":1630691980846,"gmtModify":1631890026560,"author":{"id":"3586049970742117","authorId":"3586049970742117","name":"YogaOng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2697866ca4fbb8492b2042994c7bc229","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586049970742117","authorIdStr":"3586049970742117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815580682","repostId":"2164829181","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}