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席大叔
2022-01-10
$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$
为什么uvxy跑不赢这个?
席大叔
2022-01-03
不早就辟谣不缺芯了么?
老虎盘前观察:缺芯危机下特斯拉产量缘何能逆势大增?
席大叔
2021-11-16
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$
10分钟结束战斗,等稳定了再回来谈价值投资。[捂脸]
席大叔
2021-11-16
$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$
特斯拉涨这货就是空的时候,可以考虑赚个鸡腿钱。
席大叔
2021-11-10
$标普500(.SPX)$
注意发生踩踏[流泪]
席大叔
2021-11-06
$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$
判断错误,进早了2天,现在还套着。这波太可惜了。
席大叔
2021-11-01
又是那种签约回款的套路吧?讲道理,小鹏在路上看到多少心里没数么?
小鹏汽车:10月总交付量10138台,同比大增233%
席大叔
2021-10-28
$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$
入货入货,纯靠某些科技巨头的财报撑撑场面,财报季一结束,将会一片哀嚎。[真香]
席大叔
2021-10-26
$老虎证券(TIGR)$
纸老虎啊。。。。。。。可怕
席大叔
2021-10-25
$Portillo’s Inc.(PTLO)$
45开空[喷血]
席大叔
2021-10-15
$维珍银河(SPCE)$
借机行凶了。
席大叔
2021-10-11
$UiPath(PATH)$
反指股[笑哭]
席大叔
2021-10-07
$UiPath(PATH)$
每次大盘上行,庄就出货。
席大叔
2021-10-06
$BioNTech SE(BNTX)$
今晚5个点吧?
席大叔
2021-09-24
$UiPath(PATH)$
说好的反指呢?期待今晚庄家的表现。[龇牙]
席大叔
2021-09-23
$UiPath(PATH)$
今晚继续演的话,我愿意交出我的筹码离场。谢谢。
席大叔
2021-09-22
$嘉能可(GLEN.UK)$
【行情】新加坡铁矿石指数期货10合约大涨15%。 3.4已放,还会观望。为嘛嘉能可不去美国上市呢?英女王不准?
席大叔
2021-09-22
$UiPath(PATH)$
为什么评论区的排序那么乱了?不按日期排了?
席大叔
2021-09-09
$UiPath(PATH)$
@56 赶紧跑吧,最后机会了。
席大叔
2021-07-22
$法拉第未来(FFIE)$
盘前接刀的兄弟还好么?法拉第还没出量产车吧!!!
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$</a>为什么uvxy跑不赢这个?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$</a>为什么uvxy跑不赢这个?","text":"$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$为什么uvxy跑不赢这个?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694385401","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692789674,"gmtCreate":1641219158221,"gmtModify":1641219158221,"author":{"id":"3528888510802119","authorId":"3528888510802119","name":"席大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc32fb34d0539c972cae178d67f17d3d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528888510802119","authorIdStr":"3528888510802119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不早就辟谣不缺芯了么?","listText":"不早就辟谣不缺芯了么?","text":"不早就辟谣不缺芯了么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692789674","repostId":"1108358378","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108358378","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供来自华尔街的观点,观察市场,提供独道的解读视角。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1005414032","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641217777,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1108358378?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-03 21:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎盘前观察:缺芯危机下特斯拉产量缘何能逆势大增?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108358378","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"盘前观察》》》盘前:大涨7%!“缺芯”也阻挡不了特斯拉特斯拉第4季度交付量及2022年展望新年伊始,特斯拉公布了第4季度交付量,两个字形容——“恐怖”。特斯拉第4季季度交付超过30万辆,全年交付93万","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>盘前观察</b></p><p><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1112500848\" target=\"_blank\"><b>盘前:大涨7%!“缺芯”也阻挡不了特斯拉</b></a><b></b></p><p><b>特斯拉第4季度交付量及2022年展望</b></p><p>新年伊始,特斯拉公布了第4季度交付量,两个字形容——“恐怖”。特斯拉第4季季度交付超过30万辆,全年交付93万辆。作为对比,中概电动三小强也公布了第4季度交付量,3家共交付4万辆。我曾经做个一个比喻,特斯拉就是手机行业中的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(利润高,单一品牌市场占有率高),而众多国产电动车就像众多安卓手机品牌(利润低,厮杀激烈)。</p><p>下两图是特斯拉季度和年度交付量的历史统计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ba696a8d3a4ad4e1b2422b1c4301c7\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>千万别小看特斯拉2021年的创纪录交付量——过去一年全球汽车产业都因为“缺芯”困扰,纷纷降低产量。有数据显示,2021年汽车产量比2019年降低15%(IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>),比2020年低1%。但特斯拉丝毫不受影响,产能交付量均大幅增长。</p><p>究竟有什么原因,让特斯拉可以把“缺芯”的影响降到最小?</p><p>1,特斯拉本身的科技元素。传统的汽车厂商会找合作伙伴寻找芯片,自己很少参与到芯片设计中去,但是特斯拉自己却亲历亲为,插手于芯片设计中。特斯拉在2季度中,曾经描述过自己怎么应对芯片短缺问题——“Our electrical and firmware engineering teams remain hard at work designing, developing and validating 19 new variants of controllers in response to ongoing semiconductor shortages”。缺芯怎么办?那就通过改设计让其它芯片发挥功效。有咨询公司对Model 3分解后就发现,特斯拉能够让一组半导体发挥多个芯片所实现的功能。</p><p>2,特斯拉和芯片厂直接建立联系,芯片厂也更愿意协助特斯拉。因为特斯拉喜欢自己参与芯片设计中(就像特斯拉也参与电池设计中),所以很自然特斯拉就和芯片厂建立了直接联系。传统车企(福特,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>)目前也效仿特斯拉和芯片厂直接建立联系。对于半导体厂来说,特斯拉本身的用量并不多,但特斯拉却是汽车行业最耀眼的明星,自然而然大家都愿意优先给特斯拉供货。就像半导体公司都不敢得罪苹果,他们同样也不想得罪特斯拉。</p><p>3,特斯拉的用户忠诚度高。要说特斯拉完全不缺芯也不可能,但是特斯拉采取了灵活措施,比方说先把缺少USB接口的车交付给用户,等芯片到了以后再让用户把车开回去装上。能让客户接受不完全的电动车,这要归功于用户的忠诚度。</p><p>说完了特斯拉过去的成就,那么2022年特斯拉会有什么值得期待的事情?——成长股一定要有想象空间。</p><p>1,4680电池。去年10月份的时候,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">松下</a>表示4680电池已经生产成功,会在3月试生产。4680电池被特斯拉寄予厚望,电池成本能降低50%。如果4680电池能顺利进入特斯拉,哪怕是一部分电动车,那么特斯拉的想象空间又将被打开。</p><p>2,德国工厂和德州工厂。特斯拉在亚洲下注的工厂是上海工厂非常成功 ,但是特斯拉在欧洲的下注德国工厂却不顺利,因为政府的审批问题。如果今年德国工厂能开张并生产,那么对特斯拉欧洲的布局将是重要的一笔,反正德国的政府官员是保证了Model Y在今年会生产下线,就看德国的政府是否靠谱了。德州工厂也是同样的问题,等特斯拉3家工厂(上海,德国,德州)都建好以后,大家就可以横向比较一下中美欧三地,到底谁是制造业的未来。</p><p>3,新品和新服务。特斯拉的两个卡车(Cybertruck和Semi),都因为各种问题没有在2020年出现,今年至少应该有一个开车会落地,其次值得期待的就是特斯拉的FSD无人驾驶和汽车保险业务。</p><p>总之,特斯拉的2022年依然充满各种期待。同样让人期待的,就是马斯克预言2022年全球出现衰退,是否会到来。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96fafbfa4144761c772136626dd2e2d7\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>公司新闻</b></p><p>特斯拉(TSLA):4季度交付308,600辆汽车,好于预期263,026辆。4季度累计交付308,600辆,同比增长70%,环比增长30%。2021年全年总交付93.6万辆,同比2020年增长87%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>(NIO):12月交付10,489辆汽车,同比增长49.7%。4季度累计交付25,034辆,同比增长44.3%。2021年全年总交付91,429辆,同比2020年增长109.1%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(LI):12月交付14,087辆汽车,同比增长130%。4季度累计交付35,221辆,环比增长40.2%,同比增长143.5%。2021年全年总交付90,491辆,同比2020年增长177.4%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>(XPEV):12月交付16,000辆汽车,同比增长181%。4季度累计交付41,751辆,环比增长63%,同比增长222%。2021年全年总交付98,155辆,为2020年的3.6倍。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>(BYDDY):12月汽车销量9.9112万辆,同比增长76%。新能源汽车销量9.3945万辆。</p><p>AT&T(T) & Verizon(VZ):发表联合声明拒绝延迟推迟新的5G服务请求。此前航空公司及美国交通部官员呼吁2家电信公司延迟推迟新的5G服务,称5G信号或损害航空安全。</p><p>携程(TCOM):元旦假期周边游门票订单较2020年增长238%。2022年元旦假期省内游订单占比近6成,2020年该数值为近5成。元旦周边游中,2022年门票订单较2020年增长238%,酒店订单较2020年增长70%。</p><p><b>其它</b></p><p>全球确诊290,236,007(+1,458,587)例,死亡5,445,274(+6,172)例。</p><p>美国确诊55,114,128(+405,470)例,死亡826,065(+1,254)例。</p><p>纽约州确诊3,552,059(+62,526)例,死亡59,682(+83)例。</p><p>据FlightAware数据,过去10天有14万美国航班被取消,1月2日当天约1,956个航班被取消,870个航班被延迟。</p><p>OPEC预计2022年1季度原油供应过剩140万桶/日,较此前预测下调约25%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c5a9bed7cb4ffc791de9527334c638\" tg-width=\"1057\" tg-height=\"77\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎盘前观察:缺芯危机下特斯拉产量缘何能逆势大增?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎盘前观察:缺芯危机下特斯拉产量缘何能逆势大增?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1005414032\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-03 21:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><b>盘前观察</b></p><p><b>》》》</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1112500848\" target=\"_blank\"><b>盘前:大涨7%!“缺芯”也阻挡不了特斯拉</b></a><b></b></p><p><b>特斯拉第4季度交付量及2022年展望</b></p><p>新年伊始,特斯拉公布了第4季度交付量,两个字形容——“恐怖”。特斯拉第4季季度交付超过30万辆,全年交付93万辆。作为对比,中概电动三小强也公布了第4季度交付量,3家共交付4万辆。我曾经做个一个比喻,特斯拉就是手机行业中的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(利润高,单一品牌市场占有率高),而众多国产电动车就像众多安卓手机品牌(利润低,厮杀激烈)。</p><p>下两图是特斯拉季度和年度交付量的历史统计。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47ba696a8d3a4ad4e1b2422b1c4301c7\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>千万别小看特斯拉2021年的创纪录交付量——过去一年全球汽车产业都因为“缺芯”困扰,纷纷降低产量。有数据显示,2021年汽车产量比2019年降低15%(IHS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>),比2020年低1%。但特斯拉丝毫不受影响,产能交付量均大幅增长。</p><p>究竟有什么原因,让特斯拉可以把“缺芯”的影响降到最小?</p><p>1,特斯拉本身的科技元素。传统的汽车厂商会找合作伙伴寻找芯片,自己很少参与到芯片设计中去,但是特斯拉自己却亲历亲为,插手于芯片设计中。特斯拉在2季度中,曾经描述过自己怎么应对芯片短缺问题——“Our electrical and firmware engineering teams remain hard at work designing, developing and validating 19 new variants of controllers in response to ongoing semiconductor shortages”。缺芯怎么办?那就通过改设计让其它芯片发挥功效。有咨询公司对Model 3分解后就发现,特斯拉能够让一组半导体发挥多个芯片所实现的功能。</p><p>2,特斯拉和芯片厂直接建立联系,芯片厂也更愿意协助特斯拉。因为特斯拉喜欢自己参与芯片设计中(就像特斯拉也参与电池设计中),所以很自然特斯拉就和芯片厂建立了直接联系。传统车企(福特,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>)目前也效仿特斯拉和芯片厂直接建立联系。对于半导体厂来说,特斯拉本身的用量并不多,但特斯拉却是汽车行业最耀眼的明星,自然而然大家都愿意优先给特斯拉供货。就像半导体公司都不敢得罪苹果,他们同样也不想得罪特斯拉。</p><p>3,特斯拉的用户忠诚度高。要说特斯拉完全不缺芯也不可能,但是特斯拉采取了灵活措施,比方说先把缺少USB接口的车交付给用户,等芯片到了以后再让用户把车开回去装上。能让客户接受不完全的电动车,这要归功于用户的忠诚度。</p><p>说完了特斯拉过去的成就,那么2022年特斯拉会有什么值得期待的事情?——成长股一定要有想象空间。</p><p>1,4680电池。去年10月份的时候,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PC\">松下</a>表示4680电池已经生产成功,会在3月试生产。4680电池被特斯拉寄予厚望,电池成本能降低50%。如果4680电池能顺利进入特斯拉,哪怕是一部分电动车,那么特斯拉的想象空间又将被打开。</p><p>2,德国工厂和德州工厂。特斯拉在亚洲下注的工厂是上海工厂非常成功 ,但是特斯拉在欧洲的下注德国工厂却不顺利,因为政府的审批问题。如果今年德国工厂能开张并生产,那么对特斯拉欧洲的布局将是重要的一笔,反正德国的政府官员是保证了Model Y在今年会生产下线,就看德国的政府是否靠谱了。德州工厂也是同样的问题,等特斯拉3家工厂(上海,德国,德州)都建好以后,大家就可以横向比较一下中美欧三地,到底谁是制造业的未来。</p><p>3,新品和新服务。特斯拉的两个卡车(Cybertruck和Semi),都因为各种问题没有在2020年出现,今年至少应该有一个开车会落地,其次值得期待的就是特斯拉的FSD无人驾驶和汽车保险业务。</p><p>总之,特斯拉的2022年依然充满各种期待。同样让人期待的,就是马斯克预言2022年全球出现衰退,是否会到来。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96fafbfa4144761c772136626dd2e2d7\" tg-width=\"1055\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>公司新闻</b></p><p>特斯拉(TSLA):4季度交付308,600辆汽车,好于预期263,026辆。4季度累计交付308,600辆,同比增长70%,环比增长30%。2021年全年总交付93.6万辆,同比2020年增长87%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>(NIO):12月交付10,489辆汽车,同比增长49.7%。4季度累计交付25,034辆,同比增长44.3%。2021年全年总交付91,429辆,同比2020年增长109.1%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>(LI):12月交付14,087辆汽车,同比增长130%。4季度累计交付35,221辆,环比增长40.2%,同比增长143.5%。2021年全年总交付90,491辆,同比2020年增长177.4%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>(XPEV):12月交付16,000辆汽车,同比增长181%。4季度累计交付41,751辆,环比增长63%,同比增长222%。2021年全年总交付98,155辆,为2020年的3.6倍。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>(BYDDY):12月汽车销量9.9112万辆,同比增长76%。新能源汽车销量9.3945万辆。</p><p>AT&T(T) & Verizon(VZ):发表联合声明拒绝延迟推迟新的5G服务请求。此前航空公司及美国交通部官员呼吁2家电信公司延迟推迟新的5G服务,称5G信号或损害航空安全。</p><p>携程(TCOM):元旦假期周边游门票订单较2020年增长238%。2022年元旦假期省内游订单占比近6成,2020年该数值为近5成。元旦周边游中,2022年门票订单较2020年增长238%,酒店订单较2020年增长70%。</p><p><b>其它</b></p><p>全球确诊290,236,007(+1,458,587)例,死亡5,445,274(+6,172)例。</p><p>美国确诊55,114,128(+405,470)例,死亡826,065(+1,254)例。</p><p>纽约州确诊3,552,059(+62,526)例,死亡59,682(+83)例。</p><p>据FlightAware数据,过去10天有14万美国航班被取消,1月2日当天约1,956个航班被取消,870个航班被延迟。</p><p>OPEC预计2022年1季度原油供应过剩140万桶/日,较此前预测下调约25%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c5a9bed7cb4ffc791de9527334c638\" tg-width=\"1057\" tg-height=\"77\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108358378","content_text":"盘前观察》》》盘前:大涨7%!“缺芯”也阻挡不了特斯拉特斯拉第4季度交付量及2022年展望新年伊始,特斯拉公布了第4季度交付量,两个字形容——“恐怖”。特斯拉第4季季度交付超过30万辆,全年交付93万辆。作为对比,中概电动三小强也公布了第4季度交付量,3家共交付4万辆。我曾经做个一个比喻,特斯拉就是手机行业中的苹果(利润高,单一品牌市场占有率高),而众多国产电动车就像众多安卓手机品牌(利润低,厮杀激烈)。下两图是特斯拉季度和年度交付量的历史统计。千万别小看特斯拉2021年的创纪录交付量——过去一年全球汽车产业都因为“缺芯”困扰,纷纷降低产量。有数据显示,2021年汽车产量比2019年降低15%(IHS Markit),比2020年低1%。但特斯拉丝毫不受影响,产能交付量均大幅增长。究竟有什么原因,让特斯拉可以把“缺芯”的影响降到最小?1,特斯拉本身的科技元素。传统的汽车厂商会找合作伙伴寻找芯片,自己很少参与到芯片设计中去,但是特斯拉自己却亲历亲为,插手于芯片设计中。特斯拉在2季度中,曾经描述过自己怎么应对芯片短缺问题——“Our electrical and firmware engineering teams remain hard at work designing, developing and validating 19 new variants of controllers in response to ongoing semiconductor shortages”。缺芯怎么办?那就通过改设计让其它芯片发挥功效。有咨询公司对Model 3分解后就发现,特斯拉能够让一组半导体发挥多个芯片所实现的功能。2,特斯拉和芯片厂直接建立联系,芯片厂也更愿意协助特斯拉。因为特斯拉喜欢自己参与芯片设计中(就像特斯拉也参与电池设计中),所以很自然特斯拉就和芯片厂建立了直接联系。传统车企(福特,通用汽车)目前也效仿特斯拉和芯片厂直接建立联系。对于半导体厂来说,特斯拉本身的用量并不多,但特斯拉却是汽车行业最耀眼的明星,自然而然大家都愿意优先给特斯拉供货。就像半导体公司都不敢得罪苹果,他们同样也不想得罪特斯拉。3,特斯拉的用户忠诚度高。要说特斯拉完全不缺芯也不可能,但是特斯拉采取了灵活措施,比方说先把缺少USB接口的车交付给用户,等芯片到了以后再让用户把车开回去装上。能让客户接受不完全的电动车,这要归功于用户的忠诚度。说完了特斯拉过去的成就,那么2022年特斯拉会有什么值得期待的事情?——成长股一定要有想象空间。1,4680电池。去年10月份的时候,松下表示4680电池已经生产成功,会在3月试生产。4680电池被特斯拉寄予厚望,电池成本能降低50%。如果4680电池能顺利进入特斯拉,哪怕是一部分电动车,那么特斯拉的想象空间又将被打开。2,德国工厂和德州工厂。特斯拉在亚洲下注的工厂是上海工厂非常成功 ,但是特斯拉在欧洲的下注德国工厂却不顺利,因为政府的审批问题。如果今年德国工厂能开张并生产,那么对特斯拉欧洲的布局将是重要的一笔,反正德国的政府官员是保证了Model Y在今年会生产下线,就看德国的政府是否靠谱了。德州工厂也是同样的问题,等特斯拉3家工厂(上海,德国,德州)都建好以后,大家就可以横向比较一下中美欧三地,到底谁是制造业的未来。3,新品和新服务。特斯拉的两个卡车(Cybertruck和Semi),都因为各种问题没有在2020年出现,今年至少应该有一个开车会落地,其次值得期待的就是特斯拉的FSD无人驾驶和汽车保险业务。总之,特斯拉的2022年依然充满各种期待。同样让人期待的,就是马斯克预言2022年全球出现衰退,是否会到来。公司新闻特斯拉(TSLA):4季度交付308,600辆汽车,好于预期263,026辆。4季度累计交付308,600辆,同比增长70%,环比增长30%。2021年全年总交付93.6万辆,同比2020年增长87%。蔚来(NIO):12月交付10,489辆汽车,同比增长49.7%。4季度累计交付25,034辆,同比增长44.3%。2021年全年总交付91,429辆,同比2020年增长109.1%。理想汽车(LI):12月交付14,087辆汽车,同比增长130%。4季度累计交付35,221辆,环比增长40.2%,同比增长143.5%。2021年全年总交付90,491辆,同比2020年增长177.4%。小鹏汽车(XPEV):12月交付16,000辆汽车,同比增长181%。4季度累计交付41,751辆,环比增长63%,同比增长222%。2021年全年总交付98,155辆,为2020年的3.6倍。比亚迪(BYDDY):12月汽车销量9.9112万辆,同比增长76%。新能源汽车销量9.3945万辆。AT&T(T) & Verizon(VZ):发表联合声明拒绝延迟推迟新的5G服务请求。此前航空公司及美国交通部官员呼吁2家电信公司延迟推迟新的5G服务,称5G信号或损害航空安全。携程(TCOM):元旦假期周边游门票订单较2020年增长238%。2022年元旦假期省内游订单占比近6成,2020年该数值为近5成。元旦周边游中,2022年门票订单较2020年增长238%,酒店订单较2020年增长70%。其它全球确诊290,236,007(+1,458,587)例,死亡5,445,274(+6,172)例。美国确诊55,114,128(+405,470)例,死亡826,065(+1,254)例。纽约州确诊3,552,059(+62,526)例,死亡59,682(+83)例。据FlightAware数据,过去10天有14万美国航班被取消,1月2日当天约1,956个航班被取消,870个航班被延迟。OPEC预计2022年1季度原油供应过剩140万桶/日,较此前预测下调约25%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871243674,"gmtCreate":1637076172103,"gmtModify":1637076172103,"author":{"id":"3528888510802119","authorId":"3528888510802119","name":"席大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc32fb34d0539c972cae178d67f17d3d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528888510802119","authorIdStr":"3528888510802119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 10分钟结束战斗,等稳定了再回来谈价值投资。[捂脸]","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 10分钟结束战斗,等稳定了再回来谈价值投资。[捂脸]","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ 10分钟结束战斗,等稳定了再回来谈价值投资。[捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52379e3d1f6397ff2747ed04f08e5bd3"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871243674","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871285962,"gmtCreate":1637074343180,"gmtModify":1637074343180,"author":{"id":"3528888510802119","authorId":"3528888510802119","name":"席大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc32fb34d0539c972cae178d67f17d3d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528888510802119","authorIdStr":"3528888510802119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 特斯拉涨这货就是空的时候,可以考虑赚个鸡腿钱。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> 特斯拉涨这货就是空的时候,可以考虑赚个鸡腿钱。","text":"$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ 特斯拉涨这货就是空的时候,可以考虑赚个鸡腿钱。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871285962","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847303620,"gmtCreate":1636478188109,"gmtModify":1636478188109,"author":{"id":"3528888510802119","authorId":"3528888510802119","name":"席大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc32fb34d0539c972cae178d67f17d3d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528888510802119","authorIdStr":"3528888510802119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>注意发生踩踏[流泪] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a>注意发生踩踏[流泪] ","text":"$标普500(.SPX)$注意发生踩踏[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847303620","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2252,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842388741,"gmtCreate":1636134428768,"gmtModify":1636134428768,"author":{"id":"3528888510802119","authorId":"3528888510802119","name":"席大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc32fb34d0539c972cae178d67f17d3d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528888510802119","authorIdStr":"3528888510802119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a> 判断错误,进早了2天,现在还套着。这波太可惜了。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a> 判断错误,进早了2天,现在还套着。这波太可惜了。","text":"$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$ 判断错误,进早了2天,现在还套着。这波太可惜了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842388741","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3712,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849195626,"gmtCreate":1635733218511,"gmtModify":1635733218511,"author":{"id":"3528888510802119","authorId":"3528888510802119","name":"席大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc32fb34d0539c972cae178d67f17d3d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528888510802119","authorIdStr":"3528888510802119"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"又是那种签约回款的套路吧?讲道理,小鹏在路上看到多少心里没数么?","listText":"又是那种签约回款的套路吧?讲道理,小鹏在路上看到多少心里没数么?","text":"又是那种签约回款的套路吧?讲道理,小鹏在路上看到多少心里没数么?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849195626","repostId":"1141239840","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141239840","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635728623,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141239840?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 09:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小鹏汽车:10月总交付量10138台,同比大增233%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141239840","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月1日讯,$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$:10月总交付量10,138台,同比大增233%,连续两个月交付突破万台;截至今年10月底,小鹏汽车历史累计交付量已突破10万。","content":"<p>11月1日讯,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>:10月总交付量10,138台,同比大增233%,连续两个月交付突破万台;截至今年10月底,小鹏汽车历史累计交付量已突破10万。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43d8baf70779cf1d97707d9c92530696\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"1724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小鹏汽车:10月总交付量10138台,同比大增233%</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>:10月总交付量10,138台,同比大增233%,连续两个月交付突破万台;截至今年10月底,小鹏汽车历史累计交付量已突破10万。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43d8baf70779cf1d97707d9c92530696\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"1724\" 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