+关注
Tsar
认证个人
老虎认证: 沃顿商学院本科,大语言模型创业
IP属地:海外
102
关注
555
粉丝
7
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
Tsar
10-31 21:25
我平仓了100.0股
$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$
,获利了结,大选避险
Tsar
10-03
在降息与大选双周期,如何灵活配置资产
最近一周,A股表现相当抢眼,而我也通过常用的波动策略,以天为单位平衡期权持仓,在拼多多和阿里巴巴上跟着分了一杯羹,并且托拼多多和Microstrategy的福,账户收益率创了新高。相比之下,美股大盘变动不大,高位震荡,但在降息与大选双周期中,未来两个月的机会仍然是不容忽视的。我认为降息周期最大的机会来自于市场分歧。9月FOMC会议降息50个基点,前一周市场预期分歧非常大,直到会议前两天还出现了WSJ放风,本来倾向于25个基点的四六开被逆转的罕见现象。直到会议前一天,50个基点的概率仅小幅高于25个基点,历史数据显示降息周期中仅有10%左右的时间市场会在FOMC前对降息幅度有大幅不同的意见。美联储最根本的目标是通过调控预期而减少不必要的市场波动,因此鲍总能给市场留下这么大的悬念,不免让人联想到政治因素的影响。从机构的角度讲,以高盛摩根为首的一众投行研究部预测降息25个基点,而只有Bloomberg、WSJ等少数派预测50个基点。结果证明,美联储很有可能在参考债券市场预期做出决策,如果就用这个指标进行回测,或许会有相当不错的夏普值(Sharpe Ratio)。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场,这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时,我倾向于反其道而行之,做多另一个方向,不断在新的信息到来后以此往复,直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升,但等到9月总统辩论前,特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置;总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨,而到9月底为止,两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键,尤其是11月,这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%,符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期,这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当
在降息与大选双周期,如何灵活配置资产
Tsar
09-19
我平仓了
$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$
,昨天的小幅减仓QQQ避险,今天确定的趋势大概率是周级别的走向,准备继续入场做波动
Tsar
09-13
我平仓了1手
$MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL$
,85%权利金到手,落袋为安,防止盘尾拉高
Tsar
09-13
我开仓了100.0股
$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$
,加仓MSTR,同时准备备兑Sell call
Tsar
09-13
我平仓了3.0组
$1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF VERTICAL 240920 PUT 50.0/PUT 60.0$
,收获大部分潜在盈利,平仓减少现金利用
Tsar
09-13
我开仓了4.0组
$罗素2000指数ETF VERTICAL 251219 CALL 270.0/CALL 220.0$
,提前布局降息主题,利好中小盘
Tsar
09-13
我开仓了
$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$
,布局下周fomc的降息,利好借贷市场
Tsar
09-13
I opened 1 lot(s)
$MSTR 20240920 147.0 CALL$
,Take a look at the latest order I posted!
Tsar
09-10
我开仓了1手
$MSTR 20240913 135.0 CALL$
,继续sell call 降低成本 等待降息红利
Tsar
09-06
我开仓了2.0组
$超微电脑 STRADDLE 240913 CALL 410.0/PUT 410.0$
,昨天开了smci的宽跨隔山打牛赌博通财报,成果不是很显著
Tsar
09-06
我开仓了1手
$MSTR 20240906 127.0 CALL$
,继续卖call降低成本,今天币股依然是下降趋势
Tsar
09-06
我开仓了1手
$MSTR 20240906 122.0 CALL$
,继续卖call降低成本,感觉crypto行情要再等一等
Tsar
09-05
我开仓了1手
$MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL$
,继续持有,卖出下周到期的put
Tsar
09-05
我开仓了1手
$MSTR 20240906 138.0 CALL$
,继续持有币股,看好降息对crypto的影响,同时逢低卖call保护。最近没太管长线,芯片再次大幅回撤
Tsar
08-31
我开仓了1手
$MSTR 20240906 150.0 CALL$
,做一个MSTR的covered call,btc回撤了一些,逐步加仓
Tsar
08-31
我开仓了100.0股
$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$
,做一个MSTR的covered call,btc回撤了一些,逐步加仓
Tsar
08-25
我开仓了2.0组
$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. STRANGLE 240906 CALL 275.0/PUT 267.5$
,看多Crowdstrike波动,七月的大乌龙事件可能有额外细节披露,同时预防周一大盘转向
Tsar
08-25
我开仓了8.0组
$赛富时 STRANGLE 240906 CALL 267.5/PUT 260.0$
,看多Salesforce波动,期待AI agent方面应用的update,同时预防周一大盘转向
Tsar
08-25
我开仓了1手
$PDD 20240830 140.0 CALL$
,做一个covered call(看空波动),周五跌出了空间,看好pdd财报
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3500981927180662","uuid":"3500981927180662","gmtCreate":1537890823875,"gmtModify":1717659699506,"name":"Tsar","pinyin":"tsar","introduction":"沃顿商学院本科,大语言模型创业","introductionEn":"","signature":"沃顿商学院本科,大语言模型创业","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/306aa047bc14b6942cda1aed925cf8c3","hatId":"tsla_head_frame","hatName":"特斯拉头像框","vip":2,"status":2,"fanSize":555,"headSize":102,"tweetSize":157,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":4,"name":"文化虎","nameTw":"文化虎","represent":"学有所成","factor":"发布30条非转发主帖,其中3条优质帖","iconColor":"8867FB","bgColor":"BDC5FF"},"themeCounts":7,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者:发表过3篇及以上精华帖,且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.09.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},{"badgeId":"a97bce155cb14045be40c3fe246e8d20-1","templateUuid":"a97bce155cb14045be40c3fe246e8d20","name":"新晋创作者","description":"首次获得精华帖的创作者","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce9180a952c61a51c39f70d533b81a7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98cf16cf4b858114f7ab9a779f9e6f1","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.12","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2005},{"badgeId":"f48104d3aff74204841356e6c91c4d07-1","templateUuid":"f48104d3aff74204841356e6c91c4d07","name":"周度最佳创作者","description":"每周获得最佳精华帖的创作者","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/271475ceaf67d40016c8cfa16c08c8b3","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a6336061b9ba82ba9177c7ec476f5f2","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.08.12","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2004},{"badgeId":"45aa8c9032204ad8bee19bb27da4edb8-2","templateUuid":"45aa8c9032204ad8bee19bb27da4edb8","name":"交易笔数","description":"累计达500笔","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a7aad6bbb003528533cf7367bf71a7d","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545c65027673fd17e3ac5c2df0917fc4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4875da396980e5cdbae95a7cbf265454","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/market/2023/stock-contest?adcode=StockContest2023","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":5100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.18","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"1f74612b6f95455f970edd02b5316db8-4","templateUuid":"1f74612b6f95455f970edd02b5316db8","name":"收益排行","description":"Top 10%","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15d4b5a89fa218ed3a35da1a05874cf6","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e2b28d75d7746886400fad4f4ec3e3","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f578d36f80e1a3d9c705f395e522048","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/market/2023/stock-contest?adcode=StockContest2023","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.16","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":5300},{"badgeId":"5697d37f217342faaa027fdb5a6e7c12-6","templateUuid":"5697d37f217342faaa027fdb5a6e7c12","name":"单笔平均盈利排行","description":"Top 3%","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a598d1c237f4abca28b7dec180a69b90","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b82de83729a6fa0c5bd4e93dcee29be","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7430ddcdaa39bc9a65efade13881001","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/market/2023/stock-contest?adcode=StockContest2023","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":5200},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.71%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.29","exceedPercentage":"93.62%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":11,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"5697d37f217342faaa027fdb5a6e7c12-6","templateUuid":"5697d37f217342faaa027fdb5a6e7c12","name":"单笔平均盈利排行","description":"Top 3%","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a598d1c237f4abca28b7dec180a69b90","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b82de83729a6fa0c5bd4e93dcee29be","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7430ddcdaa39bc9a65efade13881001","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/market/2023/stock-contest?adcode=StockContest2023","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.10.26","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":5200},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":"海外","starInvestorFollowerNum":457,"starInvestorFlag":true,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":83,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":25,"ror":155.88,"winRationPercentage":50.0612,"showRor":true,"investmentPhilosophy":"专注个股波动","starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":365934663872824,"gmtCreate":1730381158687,"gmtModify":1730382463150,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,获利了结,大选避险","listText":"我平仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,获利了结,大选避险","text":"我平仓了100.0股$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ ,获利了结,大选避险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365934663872824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355912681791920,"gmtCreate":1727915659667,"gmtModify":1727915757380,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"title":"在降息与大选双周期,如何灵活配置资产","htmlText":"最近一周,A股表现相当抢眼,而我也通过常用的波动策略,以天为单位平衡期权持仓,在拼多多和阿里巴巴上跟着分了一杯羹,并且托拼多多和Microstrategy的福,账户收益率创了新高。相比之下,美股大盘变动不大,高位震荡,但在降息与大选双周期中,未来两个月的机会仍然是不容忽视的。我认为降息周期最大的机会来自于市场分歧。9月FOMC会议降息50个基点,前一周市场预期分歧非常大,直到会议前两天还出现了WSJ放风,本来倾向于25个基点的四六开被逆转的罕见现象。直到会议前一天,50个基点的概率仅小幅高于25个基点,历史数据显示降息周期中仅有10%左右的时间市场会在FOMC前对降息幅度有大幅不同的意见。美联储最根本的目标是通过调控预期而减少不必要的市场波动,因此鲍总能给市场留下这么大的悬念,不免让人联想到政治因素的影响。从机构的角度讲,以高盛摩根为首的一众投行研究部预测降息25个基点,而只有Bloomberg、WSJ等少数派预测50个基点。结果证明,美联储很有可能在参考债券市场预期做出决策,如果就用这个指标进行回测,或许会有相当不错的夏普值(Sharpe Ratio)。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场,这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时,我倾向于反其道而行之,做多另一个方向,不断在新的信息到来后以此往复,直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升,但等到9月总统辩论前,特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置;总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨,而到9月底为止,两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键,尤其是11月,这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%,符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期,这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当","listText":"最近一周,A股表现相当抢眼,而我也通过常用的波动策略,以天为单位平衡期权持仓,在拼多多和阿里巴巴上跟着分了一杯羹,并且托拼多多和Microstrategy的福,账户收益率创了新高。相比之下,美股大盘变动不大,高位震荡,但在降息与大选双周期中,未来两个月的机会仍然是不容忽视的。我认为降息周期最大的机会来自于市场分歧。9月FOMC会议降息50个基点,前一周市场预期分歧非常大,直到会议前两天还出现了WSJ放风,本来倾向于25个基点的四六开被逆转的罕见现象。直到会议前一天,50个基点的概率仅小幅高于25个基点,历史数据显示降息周期中仅有10%左右的时间市场会在FOMC前对降息幅度有大幅不同的意见。美联储最根本的目标是通过调控预期而减少不必要的市场波动,因此鲍总能给市场留下这么大的悬念,不免让人联想到政治因素的影响。从机构的角度讲,以高盛摩根为首的一众投行研究部预测降息25个基点,而只有Bloomberg、WSJ等少数派预测50个基点。结果证明,美联储很有可能在参考债券市场预期做出决策,如果就用这个指标进行回测,或许会有相当不错的夏普值(Sharpe Ratio)。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场,这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时,我倾向于反其道而行之,做多另一个方向,不断在新的信息到来后以此往复,直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升,但等到9月总统辩论前,特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置;总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨,而到9月底为止,两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键,尤其是11月,这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%,符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期,这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当","text":"最近一周,A股表现相当抢眼,而我也通过常用的波动策略,以天为单位平衡期权持仓,在拼多多和阿里巴巴上跟着分了一杯羹,并且托拼多多和Microstrategy的福,账户收益率创了新高。相比之下,美股大盘变动不大,高位震荡,但在降息与大选双周期中,未来两个月的机会仍然是不容忽视的。我认为降息周期最大的机会来自于市场分歧。9月FOMC会议降息50个基点,前一周市场预期分歧非常大,直到会议前两天还出现了WSJ放风,本来倾向于25个基点的四六开被逆转的罕见现象。直到会议前一天,50个基点的概率仅小幅高于25个基点,历史数据显示降息周期中仅有10%左右的时间市场会在FOMC前对降息幅度有大幅不同的意见。美联储最根本的目标是通过调控预期而减少不必要的市场波动,因此鲍总能给市场留下这么大的悬念,不免让人联想到政治因素的影响。从机构的角度讲,以高盛摩根为首的一众投行研究部预测降息25个基点,而只有Bloomberg、WSJ等少数派预测50个基点。结果证明,美联储很有可能在参考债券市场预期做出决策,如果就用这个指标进行回测,或许会有相当不错的夏普值(Sharpe Ratio)。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场,这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时,我倾向于反其道而行之,做多另一个方向,不断在新的信息到来后以此往复,直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升,但等到9月总统辩论前,特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置;总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨,而到9月底为止,两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键,尤其是11月,这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%,符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期,这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":18,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355912681791920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579612413176972","authorId":"3579612413176972","name":"Yonny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231a2860cddd1bf2ffc3c16938f4673d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3579612413176972","authorIdStr":"3579612413176972"},"content":"感谢大佬分享,美债怎么看,也是做多波动率的策略吗? 另,文中有好几段内容怎么重复了 [捂脸]","text":"感谢大佬分享,美债怎么看,也是做多波动率的策略吗? 另,文中有好几段内容怎么重复了 [捂脸]","html":"感谢大佬分享,美债怎么看,也是做多波动率的策略吗? 另,文中有好几段内容怎么重复了 [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351140016210136,"gmtCreate":1726749921311,"gmtModify":1726750374574,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ </a>,昨天的小幅减仓QQQ避险,今天确定的趋势大概率是周级别的走向,准备继续入场做波动","listText":"我平仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ </a>,昨天的小幅减仓QQQ避险,今天确定的趋势大概率是周级别的走向,准备继续入场做波动","text":"我平仓了$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ ,昨天的小幅减仓QQQ避险,今天确定的趋势大概率是周级别的走向,准备继续入场做波动","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351140016210136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349012248248568,"gmtCreate":1726237806072,"gmtModify":1726642169025,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL$ </a>,85%权利金到手,落袋为安,防止盘尾拉高","listText":"我平仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL$ </a>,85%权利金到手,落袋为安,防止盘尾拉高","text":"我平仓了1手$MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL$ ,85%权利金到手,落袋为安,防止盘尾拉高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349012248248568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349010679644400,"gmtCreate":1726237361606,"gmtModify":1726294366697,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,加仓MSTR,同时准备备兑Sell call","listText":"我开仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,加仓MSTR,同时准备备兑Sell call","text":"我开仓了100.0股$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ ,加仓MSTR,同时准备备兑Sell call","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349010679644400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348963650531640,"gmtCreate":1726236143106,"gmtModify":1730192504427,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了3.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UVXY 20240920 50.0 PUT BUY 1 | UVXY 20240920 60.0 PUT SELL 1\">$1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF VERTICAL 240920 PUT 50.0/PUT 60.0$ </a>,收获大部分潜在盈利,平仓减少现金利用","listText":"我平仓了3.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UVXY 20240920 50.0 PUT BUY 1 | UVXY 20240920 60.0 PUT SELL 1\">$1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF VERTICAL 240920 PUT 50.0/PUT 60.0$ </a>,收获大部分潜在盈利,平仓减少现金利用","text":"我平仓了3.0组$1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF VERTICAL 240920 PUT 50.0/PUT 60.0$ ,收获大部分潜在盈利,平仓减少现金利用","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348963650531640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348963424387400,"gmtCreate":1726236090215,"gmtModify":1726642391716,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了4.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/IWM 20251219 220.0 CALL BUY 1 | IWM 20251219 270.0 CALL SELL 1\">$罗素2000指数ETF VERTICAL 251219 CALL 270.0/CALL 220.0$ </a>,提前布局降息主题,利好中小盘","listText":"我开仓了4.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/IWM 20251219 220.0 CALL BUY 1 | IWM 20251219 270.0 CALL SELL 1\">$罗素2000指数ETF VERTICAL 251219 CALL 270.0/CALL 220.0$ </a>,提前布局降息主题,利好中小盘","text":"我开仓了4.0组$罗素2000指数ETF VERTICAL 251219 CALL 270.0/CALL 220.0$ ,提前布局降息主题,利好中小盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348963424387400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4180570450198092","authorId":"4180570450198092","name":"伊祁放勋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcde5c8d7b81678ff86243f080e14c7a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4180570450198092","authorIdStr":"4180570450198092"},"content":"25年的期权,什么时候可以卖啊?而且我看三年最高峰是234.773,未来还会涨吗?","text":"25年的期权,什么时候可以卖啊?而且我看三年最高峰是234.773,未来还会涨吗?","html":"25年的期权,什么时候可以卖啊?而且我看三年最高峰是234.773,未来还会涨吗?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":348963305304400,"gmtCreate":1726236063512,"gmtModify":1726642398217,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ </a>,布局下周fomc的降息,利好借贷市场","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPST\">$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ </a>,布局下周fomc的降息,利好借贷市场","text":"我开仓了$Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ ,布局下周fomc的降息,利好借贷市场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348963305304400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349003654172920,"gmtCreate":1726235707908,"gmtModify":1726900370532,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I opened 1 lot(s) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240920 147.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240920 147.0 CALL$ </a> ,Take a look at the latest order I posted!","listText":"I opened 1 lot(s) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240920 147.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240920 147.0 CALL$ </a> ,Take a look at the latest order I posted!","text":"I opened 1 lot(s) $MSTR 20240920 147.0 CALL$ ,Take a look at the latest order I posted!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349003654172920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347683028033744,"gmtCreate":1725905528880,"gmtModify":1726294366668,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240913 135.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240913 135.0 CALL$ </a>,继续sell call 降低成本 等待降息红利","listText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240913 135.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240913 135.0 CALL$ </a>,继续sell call 降低成本 等待降息红利","text":"我开仓了1手$MSTR 20240913 135.0 CALL$ ,继续sell call 降低成本 等待降息红利","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/347683028033744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346558453633056,"gmtCreate":1725638317754,"gmtModify":1725852446934,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了2.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMCI 20240913 410.0 CALL BUY 1 | SMCI 20240913 410.0 PUT BUY 1\">$超微电脑 STRADDLE 240913 CALL 410.0/PUT 410.0$ </a>,昨天开了smci的宽跨隔山打牛赌博通财报,成果不是很显著","listText":"我开仓了2.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SMCI 20240913 410.0 CALL BUY 1 | SMCI 20240913 410.0 PUT BUY 1\">$超微电脑 STRADDLE 240913 CALL 410.0/PUT 410.0$ </a>,昨天开了smci的宽跨隔山打牛赌博通财报,成果不是很显著","text":"我开仓了2.0组$超微电脑 STRADDLE 240913 CALL 410.0/PUT 410.0$ ,昨天开了smci的宽跨隔山打牛赌博通财报,成果不是很显著","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346558453633056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346557623267592,"gmtCreate":1725638194927,"gmtModify":1725852561809,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240906 127.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240906 127.0 CALL$ </a>,继续卖call降低成本,今天币股依然是下降趋势","listText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240906 127.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240906 127.0 CALL$ </a>,继续卖call降低成本,今天币股依然是下降趋势","text":"我开仓了1手$MSTR 20240906 127.0 CALL$ ,继续卖call降低成本,今天币股依然是下降趋势","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346557623267592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346557379584344,"gmtCreate":1725638152067,"gmtModify":1725852564975,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240906 122.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240906 122.0 CALL$ </a>,继续卖call降低成本,感觉crypto行情要再等一等","listText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240906 122.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240906 122.0 CALL$ </a>,继续卖call降低成本,感觉crypto行情要再等一等","text":"我开仓了1手$MSTR 20240906 122.0 CALL$ ,继续卖call降低成本,感觉crypto行情要再等一等","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346557379584344","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346171208503552,"gmtCreate":1725551619393,"gmtModify":1726237757352,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL$ </a>,继续持有,卖出下周到期的put","listText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL$ </a>,继续持有,卖出下周到期的put","text":"我开仓了1手$MSTR 20240913 140.0 CALL$ ,继续持有,卖出下周到期的put","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346171208503552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345890900918600,"gmtCreate":1725472812015,"gmtModify":1725689533737,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240906 138.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240906 138.0 CALL$ </a>,继续持有币股,看好降息对crypto的影响,同时逢低卖call保护。最近没太管长线,芯片再次大幅回撤","listText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240906 138.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240906 138.0 CALL$ </a>,继续持有币股,看好降息对crypto的影响,同时逢低卖call保护。最近没太管长线,芯片再次大幅回撤","text":"我开仓了1手$MSTR 20240906 138.0 CALL$ ,继续持有币股,看好降息对crypto的影响,同时逢低卖call保护。最近没太管长线,芯片再次大幅回撤","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345890900918600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5993,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":344048547754240,"gmtCreate":1725035786334,"gmtModify":1725690189188,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240906 150.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240906 150.0 CALL$ </a>,做一个MSTR的covered call,btc回撤了一些,逐步加仓","listText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSTR 20240906 150.0 CALL\">$MSTR 20240906 150.0 CALL$ </a>,做一个MSTR的covered call,btc回撤了一些,逐步加仓","text":"我开仓了1手$MSTR 20240906 150.0 CALL$ ,做一个MSTR的covered call,btc回撤了一些,逐步加仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344048547754240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":344110048833800,"gmtCreate":1725035773696,"gmtModify":1726294177119,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,做一个MSTR的covered call,btc回撤了一些,逐步加仓","listText":"我开仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,做一个MSTR的covered call,btc回撤了一些,逐步加仓","text":"我开仓了100.0股$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ ,做一个MSTR的covered call,btc回撤了一些,逐步加仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344110048833800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342003913703680,"gmtCreate":1724517599207,"gmtModify":1724657793165,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了2.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWD 20240906 267.5 PUT BUY 1 | CRWD 20240906 275.0 CALL BUY 1\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. STRANGLE 240906 CALL 275.0/PUT 267.5$ </a>,看多Crowdstrike波动,七月的大乌龙事件可能有额外细节披露,同时预防周一大盘转向","listText":"我开仓了2.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRWD 20240906 267.5 PUT BUY 1 | CRWD 20240906 275.0 CALL BUY 1\">$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. STRANGLE 240906 CALL 275.0/PUT 267.5$ </a>,看多Crowdstrike波动,七月的大乌龙事件可能有额外细节披露,同时预防周一大盘转向","text":"我开仓了2.0组$CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. STRANGLE 240906 CALL 275.0/PUT 267.5$ ,看多Crowdstrike波动,七月的大乌龙事件可能有额外细节披露,同时预防周一大盘转向","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342003913703680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5037,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342003720847648,"gmtCreate":1724517552648,"gmtModify":1724731826408,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了8.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM 20240906 260.0 PUT BUY 1 | CRM 20240906 267.5 CALL BUY 1\">$赛富时 STRANGLE 240906 CALL 267.5/PUT 260.0$ </a>,看多Salesforce波动,期待AI agent方面应用的update,同时预防周一大盘转向","listText":"我开仓了8.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/CRM 20240906 260.0 PUT BUY 1 | CRM 20240906 267.5 CALL BUY 1\">$赛富时 STRANGLE 240906 CALL 267.5/PUT 260.0$ </a>,看多Salesforce波动,期待AI agent方面应用的update,同时预防周一大盘转向","text":"我开仓了8.0组$赛富时 STRANGLE 240906 CALL 267.5/PUT 260.0$ ,看多Salesforce波动,期待AI agent方面应用的update,同时预防周一大盘转向","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342003720847648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3851,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341921571311752,"gmtCreate":1724517473172,"gmtModify":1725094184355,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500981927180662","authorIdStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20240830 140.0 CALL\">$PDD 20240830 140.0 CALL$ </a>,做一个covered call(看空波动),周五跌出了空间,看好pdd财报","listText":"我开仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PDD 20240830 140.0 CALL\">$PDD 20240830 140.0 CALL$ </a>,做一个covered call(看空波动),周五跌出了空间,看好pdd财报","text":"我开仓了1手$PDD 20240830 140.0 CALL$ ,做一个covered call(看空波动),周五跌出了空间,看好pdd财报","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341921571311752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":355912681791920,"gmtCreate":1727915659667,"gmtModify":1727915757380,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"title":"在降息与大选双周期,如何灵活配置资产","htmlText":"最近一周,A股表现相当抢眼,而我也通过常用的波动策略,以天为单位平衡期权持仓,在拼多多和阿里巴巴上跟着分了一杯羹,并且托拼多多和Microstrategy的福,账户收益率创了新高。相比之下,美股大盘变动不大,高位震荡,但在降息与大选双周期中,未来两个月的机会仍然是不容忽视的。我认为降息周期最大的机会来自于市场分歧。9月FOMC会议降息50个基点,前一周市场预期分歧非常大,直到会议前两天还出现了WSJ放风,本来倾向于25个基点的四六开被逆转的罕见现象。直到会议前一天,50个基点的概率仅小幅高于25个基点,历史数据显示降息周期中仅有10%左右的时间市场会在FOMC前对降息幅度有大幅不同的意见。美联储最根本的目标是通过调控预期而减少不必要的市场波动,因此鲍总能给市场留下这么大的悬念,不免让人联想到政治因素的影响。从机构的角度讲,以高盛摩根为首的一众投行研究部预测降息25个基点,而只有Bloomberg、WSJ等少数派预测50个基点。结果证明,美联储很有可能在参考债券市场预期做出决策,如果就用这个指标进行回测,或许会有相当不错的夏普值(Sharpe Ratio)。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场,这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时,我倾向于反其道而行之,做多另一个方向,不断在新的信息到来后以此往复,直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升,但等到9月总统辩论前,特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置;总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨,而到9月底为止,两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键,尤其是11月,这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%,符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期,这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当","listText":"最近一周,A股表现相当抢眼,而我也通过常用的波动策略,以天为单位平衡期权持仓,在拼多多和阿里巴巴上跟着分了一杯羹,并且托拼多多和Microstrategy的福,账户收益率创了新高。相比之下,美股大盘变动不大,高位震荡,但在降息与大选双周期中,未来两个月的机会仍然是不容忽视的。我认为降息周期最大的机会来自于市场分歧。9月FOMC会议降息50个基点,前一周市场预期分歧非常大,直到会议前两天还出现了WSJ放风,本来倾向于25个基点的四六开被逆转的罕见现象。直到会议前一天,50个基点的概率仅小幅高于25个基点,历史数据显示降息周期中仅有10%左右的时间市场会在FOMC前对降息幅度有大幅不同的意见。美联储最根本的目标是通过调控预期而减少不必要的市场波动,因此鲍总能给市场留下这么大的悬念,不免让人联想到政治因素的影响。从机构的角度讲,以高盛摩根为首的一众投行研究部预测降息25个基点,而只有Bloomberg、WSJ等少数派预测50个基点。结果证明,美联储很有可能在参考债券市场预期做出决策,如果就用这个指标进行回测,或许会有相当不错的夏普值(Sharpe Ratio)。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场,这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时,我倾向于反其道而行之,做多另一个方向,不断在新的信息到来后以此往复,直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升,但等到9月总统辩论前,特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置;总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨,而到9月底为止,两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键,尤其是11月,这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%,符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期,这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当","text":"最近一周,A股表现相当抢眼,而我也通过常用的波动策略,以天为单位平衡期权持仓,在拼多多和阿里巴巴上跟着分了一杯羹,并且托拼多多和Microstrategy的福,账户收益率创了新高。相比之下,美股大盘变动不大,高位震荡,但在降息与大选双周期中,未来两个月的机会仍然是不容忽视的。我认为降息周期最大的机会来自于市场分歧。9月FOMC会议降息50个基点,前一周市场预期分歧非常大,直到会议前两天还出现了WSJ放风,本来倾向于25个基点的四六开被逆转的罕见现象。直到会议前一天,50个基点的概率仅小幅高于25个基点,历史数据显示降息周期中仅有10%左右的时间市场会在FOMC前对降息幅度有大幅不同的意见。美联储最根本的目标是通过调控预期而减少不必要的市场波动,因此鲍总能给市场留下这么大的悬念,不免让人联想到政治因素的影响。从机构的角度讲,以高盛摩根为首的一众投行研究部预测降息25个基点,而只有Bloomberg、WSJ等少数派预测50个基点。结果证明,美联储很有可能在参考债券市场预期做出决策,如果就用这个指标进行回测,或许会有相当不错的夏普值(Sharpe Ratio)。从时间序列的角度纵观国债市场,这种预期分歧为反转策略提供了空间。当市场对某一端情绪高涨时,我倾向于反其道而行之,做多另一个方向,不断在新的信息到来后以此往复,直到接近下一次FOMC日期时再最终调整方向。总统大选同样可以使用这个逻辑——7月中特朗普遇刺事件后大选获胜概率一度飙升,但等到9月总统辩论前,特朗普与哈里斯的支持率又回到了均衡的位置;总统辩论后哈里斯的胜率上涨,而到9月底为止,两者又回到了势均力敌的状态。今年的最后两次FOMC会议更加关键,尤其是11月,这次会议几乎和总统大选正面撞上。目前市场普遍预期11月降息25个基点的概率为60%,符合实现全年降息100个基点的预期,这也暗示着12月还需要再降25个基点。我认为当","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":18,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355912681791920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579612413176972","authorId":"3579612413176972","name":"Yonny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231a2860cddd1bf2ffc3c16938f4673d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3579612413176972","idStr":"3579612413176972"},"content":"感谢大佬分享,美债怎么看,也是做多波动率的策略吗? 另,文中有好几段内容怎么重复了 [捂脸]","text":"感谢大佬分享,美债怎么看,也是做多波动率的策略吗? 另,文中有好几段内容怎么重复了 [捂脸]","html":"感谢大佬分享,美债怎么看,也是做多波动率的策略吗? 另,文中有好几段内容怎么重复了 [捂脸]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313711656489128,"gmtCreate":1717628311989,"gmtModify":1720493963583,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了700.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>,Covered call,看好财报电池业务","listText":"我开仓了700.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>,Covered call,看好财报电池业务","text":"我开仓了700.0股$蔚来(NIO)$ ,Covered call,看好财报电池业务","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313711656489128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315835135856920,"gmtCreate":1718139151958,"gmtModify":1723178675525,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了8手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL\">$NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL$ </a>,小亏离场,顺便清掉了一直拿着的100手NIO","listText":"我平仓了8手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL\">$NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL$ </a>,小亏离场,顺便清掉了一直拿着的100手NIO","text":"我平仓了8手$NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL$ ,小亏离场,顺便清掉了一直拿着的100手NIO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315835135856920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":313711941578976,"gmtCreate":1717628323529,"gmtModify":1720493963532,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了8手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL\">$NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL$ </a>,Covered call,看好财报电池业务","listText":"我开仓了8手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL\">$NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL$ </a>,Covered call,看好财报电池业务","text":"我开仓了8手$NIO 20240614 5.5 CALL$ ,Covered call,看好财报电池业务","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313711941578976","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":466275,"gmtCreate":1555000691019,"gmtModify":1704797836480,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$PagerDuty, Inc.(PD)$半小时4000刀进账","listText":"$PagerDuty, Inc.(PD)$半小时4000刀进账","text":"$PagerDuty, Inc.(PD)$半小时4000刀进账","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92b69f7fdc16d93643dfcc8656774885"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/466275","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493188716939207","authorId":"3493188716939207","name":"Dannis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d74a4324c6f0745b55e3c64f04cf877","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3493188716939207","idStr":"3493188716939207"},"content":"这么交易,手续费花了多少?","text":"这么交易,手续费花了多少?","html":"这么交易,手续费花了多少?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365934663872824,"gmtCreate":1730381158687,"gmtModify":1730382463150,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,获利了结,大选避险","listText":"我平仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ </a>,获利了结,大选避险","text":"我平仓了100.0股$MicroStrategy Incorporated(MSTR)$ ,获利了结,大选避险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365934663872824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":468479,"gmtCreate":1555145150188,"gmtModify":1704798111719,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ 做T 打新 一个月翻倍[财迷] 胜败乃兵家常事 way to go tiger","listText":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ 做T 打新 一个月翻倍[财迷] 胜败乃兵家常事 way to go tiger","text":"$Jumia Technologies AG(JMIA)$ 做T 打新 一个月翻倍[财迷] 胜败乃兵家常事 way to go tiger","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85c5b87ef41b3fb8684f5baf24a16ef6"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/468479","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3511483006373980","authorId":"3511483006373980","name":"Kaisereich","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cca35b45861c3eb60d3eaa11a517ba6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3511483006373980","idStr":"3511483006373980"},"content":"老哥带带我啊","text":"老哥带带我啊","html":"老哥带带我啊"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437173,"gmtCreate":1553096587679,"gmtModify":1704794068968,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$一波操作","listText":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$一波操作","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$一波操作","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc8c5020be7ddcbe68122036a5f6089"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437173","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"2021140052568","authorId":"2021140052568","name":"苗喵猫","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/1f5b94e3b3396e6119e136a15fdfa4e3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"2021140052568","idStr":"2021140052568"},"content":"为老虎贡献一波佣金","text":"为老虎贡献一波佣金","html":"为老虎贡献一波佣金"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315880825413880,"gmtCreate":1718150176627,"gmtModify":1720493983606,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了300.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$ </a>,锁住跨式期权的盈利,防守明早的CPI","listText":"我开仓了300.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$ </a>,锁住跨式期权的盈利,防守明早的CPI","text":"我开仓了300.0股$甲骨文(ORCL)$ ,锁住跨式期权的盈利,防守明早的CPI","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315880825413880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274766307479","authorId":"3479274766307479","name":"古风里","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78bec073397d54a68f80879dd87fd45c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274766307479","idStr":"3479274766307479"},"content":"没懂,大哥。你这是买了牛市做多期权?所以做空对冲?","text":"没懂,大哥。你这是买了牛市做多期权?所以做空对冲?","html":"没懂,大哥。你这是买了牛市做多期权?所以做空对冲?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":978498825,"gmtCreate":1599373675367,"gmtModify":1703818397818,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"偶然翻到3月时候的一个投资比赛,如果实盘能这么有前瞻性该多好哈哈哈<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$Goldman Sachs(GS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAR\">$Marriott(MAR)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>","listText":"偶然翻到3月时候的一个投资比赛,如果实盘能这么有前瞻性该多好哈哈哈<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$Goldman Sachs(GS)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">$Zoom(ZM)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MAR\">$Marriott(MAR)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a>","text":"偶然翻到3月时候的一个投资比赛,如果实盘能这么有前瞻性该多好哈哈哈$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$$Goldman Sachs(GS)$$Zoom(ZM)$$Marriott(MAR)$$Amazon.com(AMZN)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b12eb68c3836c4b869be9d743aaa22b7","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/978498825","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":315836538192184,"gmtCreate":1718139365435,"gmtModify":1718194101592,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了3.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ORCL 20240621 124.0 PUT BUY 1 | ORCL 20240621 124.0 CALL BUY 1\">$甲骨文 STRADDLE 240621 CALL 124.0/PUT 124.0$ </a>,期待Oracle在AI方便的布局,看好财报波动,小赌怡情","listText":"我开仓了3.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ORCL 20240621 124.0 PUT BUY 1 | ORCL 20240621 124.0 CALL BUY 1\">$甲骨文 STRADDLE 240621 CALL 124.0/PUT 124.0$ </a>,期待Oracle在AI方便的布局,看好财报波动,小赌怡情","text":"我开仓了3.0组$甲骨文 STRADDLE 240621 CALL 124.0/PUT 124.0$ ,期待Oracle在AI方便的布局,看好财报波动,小赌怡情","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/315836538192184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330710127976640,"gmtCreate":1721770738705,"gmtModify":1721771031309,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了3.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META 20240802 487.5 PUT BUY 1 | META 20240802 497.5 CALL BUY 1\">$Meta Platforms STRANGLE 240802 CALL 497.5/PUT 487.5$ </a>,隔山打牛,提前埋伏Meta财报","listText":"我开仓了3.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/META 20240802 487.5 PUT BUY 1 | META 20240802 497.5 CALL BUY 1\">$Meta Platforms STRANGLE 240802 CALL 497.5/PUT 487.5$ </a>,隔山打牛,提前埋伏Meta财报","text":"我开仓了3.0组$Meta Platforms STRANGLE 240802 CALL 497.5/PUT 487.5$ ,隔山打牛,提前埋伏Meta财报","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330710127976640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010375","authorId":"10000000000010375","name":"Felix Faulkner","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439b34813785653c2a1c997fafbbc184","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010375","idStr":"10000000000010375"},"content":"学习了。预期收益率多少?","text":"学习了。预期收益率多少?","html":"学习了。预期收益率多少?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":900873717,"gmtCreate":1555525725639,"gmtModify":1704799070175,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Uxin(UXIN)$盈利一波","listText":"$Uxin(UXIN)$盈利一波","text":"$Uxin(UXIN)$盈利一波","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97868f10ce6ba75b3c27c17677a46459"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/900873717","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3492072490910388","authorId":"3492072490910388","name":"小脑斧吼吼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d03147d98ab2851b4e49474a9e679a9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3492072490910388","idStr":"3492072490910388"},"content":"买了老虎么,哈哈哈哈","text":"买了老虎么,哈哈哈哈","html":"买了老虎么,哈哈哈哈"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331201532723288,"gmtCreate":1721866642375,"gmtModify":1729931848810,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了5.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20240802 440.0 PUT SELL 1 | MSFT 20240802 450.0 CALL SELL 1\">$微软 STRANGLE 240802 PUT 440.0/CALL 450.0$ </a>,隔山打牛成功对冲今天的大跌,见好就收,账户今日略微收涨","listText":"我平仓了5.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT 20240802 440.0 PUT SELL 1 | MSFT 20240802 450.0 CALL SELL 1\">$微软 STRANGLE 240802 PUT 440.0/CALL 450.0$ </a>,隔山打牛成功对冲今天的大跌,见好就收,账户今日略微收涨","text":"我平仓了5.0组$微软 STRANGLE 240802 PUT 440.0/CALL 450.0$ ,隔山打牛成功对冲今天的大跌,见好就收,账户今日略微收涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331201532723288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579612413176972","authorId":"3579612413176972","name":"Yonny","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231a2860cddd1bf2ffc3c16938f4673d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3579612413176972","idStr":"3579612413176972"},"content":"大佬,强啊","text":"大佬,强啊","html":"大佬,强啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":905716234,"gmtCreate":1560529110328,"gmtModify":1704700479993,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Fiverr International Ltd.(FVRR)$$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$ 苦命兄弟俩","listText":"$Fiverr International Ltd.(FVRR)$$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$ 苦命兄弟俩","text":"$Fiverr International Ltd.(FVRR)$$Chewy, Inc.(CHWY)$ 苦命兄弟俩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/905716234","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":906075576,"gmtCreate":1558540877195,"gmtModify":1704696814874,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Luckin Coffee(LK)$ The intrinsical flaws in the management structure and expansion strategy of Luckin Coffee plague its future prospects. 空了四天了","listText":"$Luckin Coffee(LK)$ The intrinsical flaws in the management structure and expansion strategy of Luckin Coffee plague its future prospects. 空了四天了","text":"$Luckin Coffee(LK)$ The intrinsical flaws in the management structure and expansion strategy of Luckin Coffee plague its future prospects. 空了四天了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad2ef5a6b962e9d8e2591cff79dedee"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/906075576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3490965523519834","authorId":"3490965523519834","name":"機械人魚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06cd53caa98b3f03fd4cf93ea6b3221a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3490965523519834","idStr":"3490965523519834"},"content":"然而是模拟账户","text":"然而是模拟账户","html":"然而是模拟账户"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":446474,"gmtCreate":1553705397643,"gmtModify":1704795304922,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$一波操作猛如虎","listText":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$一波操作猛如虎","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$一波操作猛如虎","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e094d0bda2872144ddef3af67cb0330"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/446474","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":189,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3469949679702050","authorId":"3469949679702050","name":"你韵神","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cab0b088c81c6051fe07be3cb1966da","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3469949679702050","idStr":"3469949679702050"},"content":"有点厉害 虽然没赚到多少 但是有钱啊 几千几千的买还是能赚点","text":"有点厉害 虽然没赚到多少 但是有钱啊 几千几千的买还是能赚点","html":"有点厉害 虽然没赚到多少 但是有钱啊 几千几千的买还是能赚点"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335202298265808,"gmtCreate":1722868365501,"gmtModify":1722868616560,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了3.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UVXY 20240920 50.0 PUT SELL 1 | UVXY 20240920 60.0 PUT BUY 1\">$1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF VERTICAL 240920 PUT 50.0/PUT 60.0$ </a>,看空vix,买put spread减少高iv的损耗,选择高行权价稳一手","listText":"我开仓了3.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UVXY 20240920 50.0 PUT SELL 1 | UVXY 20240920 60.0 PUT BUY 1\">$1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF VERTICAL 240920 PUT 50.0/PUT 60.0$ </a>,看空vix,买put spread减少高iv的损耗,选择高行权价稳一手","text":"我开仓了3.0组$1.5倍做多恐慌指数短期期货ETF VERTICAL 240920 PUT 50.0/PUT 60.0$ ,看空vix,买put spread减少高iv的损耗,选择高行权价稳一手","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335202298265808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":12458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010397","authorId":"10000000000010397","name":"阿莫西琳","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f77a5350a121a8b492638770d9c7e641","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010397","idStr":"10000000000010397"},"content":"精准的操作,到位的分析,支持","text":"精准的操作,到位的分析,支持","html":"精准的操作,到位的分析,支持"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326760728899592,"gmtCreate":1720807277635,"gmtModify":1720807467499,"author":{"id":"3500981927180662","authorId":"3500981927180662","name":"Tsar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4893f23f62251b44ef39eb75988605d7","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3500981927180662","idStr":"3500981927180662"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了40.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JPM 20240719 205.0 PUT BUY 1 | JPM 20240719 210.0 CALL BUY 1\">$摩根大通 STRANGLE 240719 PUT 205.0/CALL 210.0$ </a>,昨天盘中看多JPM财报前波动后睡着未卖出酿成大祸,这个财报季努力收复失地","listText":"我开仓了40.0组<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/JPM 20240719 205.0 PUT BUY 1 | JPM 20240719 210.0 CALL BUY 1\">$摩根大通 STRANGLE 240719 PUT 205.0/CALL 210.0$ </a>,昨天盘中看多JPM财报前波动后睡着未卖出酿成大祸,这个财报季努力收复失地","text":"我开仓了40.0组$摩根大通 STRANGLE 240719 PUT 205.0/CALL 210.0$ ,昨天盘中看多JPM财报前波动后睡着未卖出酿成大祸,这个财报季努力收复失地","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326760728899592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010374","authorId":"10000000000010374","name":"Colby Kelvin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e747bedd43d9fd19621ea7f5e5a63cf3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010374","idStr":"10000000000010374"},"content":"目测需要有闹钟股价报警功能","text":"目测需要有闹钟股价报警功能","html":"目测需要有闹钟股价报警功能"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}