A西门大官人的个人主页 - 老虎社区

A西门大官人

A西门大官人

西门药材铺董事会主席兼首席执行官

IP属地：江苏

105关注

42粉丝

7主题

0勋章

A西门大官人

2022-07-18

vv没。哦$MET.HK 20220728 160.00 PUT$

A西门大官人

2020-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$为了杀期权，简直丧尽天良

A西门大官人

2020-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$华尔街牛逼

A西门大官人

2020-12-16

$百度(BIDU)$消息估计是假的，华尔街找接盘侠呢

A西门大官人

2020-12-12

$DIS 20201218 170.0 CALL(DIS)$大发

A西门大官人

2020-12-11

$DIS 20201218 170.0 CALL(DIS)$出不出

A西门大官人

2020-12-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$**马斯克，不讲武德

A西门大官人

2020-05-01

事后诸葛亮

抱歉，原内容已删除

A西门大官人

2019-12-31

$蔚来(NIO)$ 5块

A西门大官人

2019-11-25

$蔚来(NIO)$ 准备定投蔚来了

A西门大官人

2019-11-22

$微黄金1912(MGC1912)$ 空

A西门大官人

2019-11-01

怎么参加啊

A西门大官人

2019-10-03

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 做空

A西门大官人

2019-09-30

图书馆

A西门大官人

2019-09-28

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 割吧

A西门大官人

2019-09-28

$蔚来(NIO)$ 有大单托底

A西门大官人

2019-09-27

$蔚来(NIO)$ 割吧，都烧焦了

A西门大官人

2019-09-06

好有钱

@空军大队长:牛市来了，冲了70万明天开始建仓，麻烦大家推荐几个A股给我

A西门大官人

2019-08-15

$BABA 20190816 170.0 CALL(BABA)$ 被双杀了

A西门大官人

2019-07-22

$Cadence Bancorporation(CADE)$ zu模拟猛成虎

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;割吧，都烧焦了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>&nbsp;割吧，都烧焦了","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 割吧，都烧焦了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/933189689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395547091,"gmtCreate":1607699504213,"gmtModify":1703849598672,"author":{"id":"3500014400754697","authorId":"3500014400754697","name":"A西门大官人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12df916493d0c1a02ff1a2fa0140a1dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500014400754697","authorIdStr":"3500014400754697"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$DIS 20201218 170.0 CALL(DIS)$</a>出不出","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$DIS 20201218 170.0 CALL(DIS)$</a>出不出","text":"$DIS 20201218 170.0 CALL(DIS)$出不出","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b41e3477c1e147e3fdb122db6a533e23","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395547091","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924681743,"gmtCreate":1588332321282,"gmtModify":1704367396389,"author":{"id":"3500014400754697","authorId":"3500014400754697","name":"A西门大官人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12df916493d0c1a02ff1a2fa0140a1dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500014400754697","authorIdStr":"3500014400754697"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"事后诸葛亮","listText":"事后诸葛亮","text":"事后诸葛亮","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924681743","repostId":"1116127917","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116127917","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"100%全部原创，没有一篇转载。全部都是干货，没有任何广告或者软文。覆盖的主题：金融、投资、商业、经济和时事。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"伍治坚证据主义","id":"69","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e09863206344e0b010e09146f1c4fc"},"pubTimestamp":1588303866,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116127917?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-01 11:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为什么美国股市逆流而上？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116127917","media":"伍治坚证据主义","summary":"3月22日开始，美国每周申请失业金的人数，屡创新高。截至4月23日，在短短的一个月内，失业总人数达到了2500多万。美国的劳动力人口总数，大约为1.6亿。也就是说，在过去一个月，美国的失业率，飙升到1","content":"<p><span>3月22日开始，美国每周申请失业金的人数，屡创新高。截至4月23日，在短短的一个月内，失业总人数达到了2500多万。美国的劳动力人口总数，大约为1.6亿。也就是说，在过去一个月，美国的失业率，飙升到16%左右。如此的高失业率水平，十分罕见，在过去百年的历史中，仅次于1930年代大萧条时期大约25%左右的失业率。</span></p><p><span>但是，一个让人有点意外的现象，是同期的美国股市，非但没有下跌，而且还上涨了很多。标普500指数的收盘价，在3月23日和4月23日分别为2237点和2797点。就是说，在那短短的一个月内，美国股市上涨了25%。任何一个股市，如果在一年内上涨25%，都可以被认为是牛市。然而美国股市仅用一个月就涨了那么多，而且是在其失业率屡创新高的情况下完成的，怪不得让很多投资者摸不着头脑。</span></p><p><span>为什么经济的基本面，和股市的走向之间，有如此大的分歧？大致来讲，有这么几个解释。</span></p><p><span>第一、笔者在FT中文网之前的文章《股市不是经济》中，曾经专门指出，股市的一大特点，就是总是向前看。因此我们经常可以看到股市和经济貌似脱钩的现象。</span></p><p><span>当我们看到美国经济中的失业率屡创新高时，其股市很可能已经在消化接下来的这些问题：什么时候复工？复工以后消费和投资会有多少复苏？公司的盈利会有哪些变化？等等。股市在过去一个月内的上涨，反映的恰恰是市场对于复工以及复工后经济活动的反弹的乐观预期。</span></p><p><span>在美国股市历史上，这样的例子比比皆是。举例来说，从1930年算起，标普500指数公司平均盈利下降的年份，共发生过30次。而在其中的23年，标普500指数都上涨了。在平均盈利下降的30个年份中，有16个年份的降幅超过10%。然而在这16年中的11年，标普500指数都上涨了。更有8个年份，标普500指数上涨了10%以上。</span></p><p><span>第二、标普500指数不代表美国所有的公司。标普500指数中的公司成员，主要是美国市值最大的500家公司（注：严格来讲市值并非唯一选取标准，但大致来说标普500代表了美国最大的公司）。在各行各业之中，这些公司都是本行业的领头羊。在经济正常运行的期间，大市值股票的投资回报，未必比中小市值股票更好。有时候，情况还会反过来，即中小市值的股价上涨超过大市值股票。然而，在COVID疫情期间，大公司的优势体现了出来。他们的韧性更强，有规模更大的资产负债表，有更多的人力资源及时申请各种政府补贴，也更容易从银行获得应急贷款，或者从股市和债市以更低廉的成本融到宝贵的资金。</span></p><p><span>股市的表现，恰恰体现了不同规模公司对于疫情的抗打击能力。从年初算起，截至4月24日，追踪大市值公司的标普500指数ETF（IVV）回报为负11%，而中市值股票ETF（IJH）和小市值股票ETF（VB）在同期的回报，分别为负24%和负22%，比大市值股票差了一倍，足可见这些公司承受的压力。</span></p><p><span>市值加权指数，本质上是一个优胜劣汰的筛选器。在竞争中胜出，市值不断变大的股票，有朝一日会被囊括到股票指数中。而那些竞争优势不强，被慢慢淘汰的公司，则会在市值不断减小的过程中，被剔除出指数，或者从大市值指数降级到中小市值指数。购买市值加权指数基金，特别是大市值指数基金，其实就是买整个经济中表现最强的公司。在COVID疫情这样的情况下，购买大市值指数基金，是一个比较简单的筛选更强公司的方法。</span></p><p><span>第三、目前的标普500指数，有很强的行业偏重。指数中占比最大的行业，是信息技术行业，占到总市值的27%左右。指数中权重最大的十家公司，有一半都是科技企业：微软、苹果、亚马逊、脸书和谷歌。这些公司的市值加起来，达到标普500指数20%左右的权重。</span></p><p><span>横扫全球的COVID疫情，给航空、酒店、餐饮等行业造成了毁灭性打击，却意外的成为了科技企业的一场盛宴。这是因为，大家都关在家里远程办公，对于笔记本电脑、远程视频、云服务、网络电商的需求反而增加了。因此，标普500指数的上涨，更多的体现了这次疫情中那些赢家公司的收获，而非整个经济基本面的复苏。</span></p><p><span>第四、在我们看到疫情带来的各种坏消息的同时，不要忘记，各国政府和央行推出的大规模的救市政策。比如美国国会通过2万亿美元CARES法案，救援受到疫情影响的大小企业、政府机构和个人。美联储将基准利率下调到0~0.25%，宣布无限量量化宽松，购买包括垃圾债券在内的各级别债券。欧洲央行推出2020年量化宽松计划PEPP，宣布购买价值8000亿欧元的债券。地球上几乎所有的主要国家，要么推出大型财政刺激，给个人和企业发钱或者减税，要么推出宽松的货币政策，通过降息和量化宽松向市场注入流动性，或者干脆双管齐下。政府提供的这些流动性，迟早会有一部分流入股市，对几乎所有公司的估值起到一定的支撑作用。</span></p><p><span>当然，上面这些因素，主要解释了最近一个月的上涨。但从总体上来看，COVID疫情对于经济和公司的打击，远远高于一开始所有人的估计。这也是为什么今年到目前为止股市还是下跌的原因所在。基于COVID疫情发展的高度不确定性，接下来的股市走向，同样充满了不确定性。</span></p><p><span>那么，有什么因素，可能导致美国股市再次下跌呢？在这里，让我和大家分享几个可能的情况：</span></p><p><span>第一、最大规模的科技企业，比如微软、谷歌、苹果和亚马逊，发生股价下跌。由于这些公司的市值，在股市指数中占有绝对的主导地位，因此如果他们的股价发生大幅度下跌，那么就可能引发整个股市的下跌潮。这样的情况并非不可能发生，而且最近才发生过。从2018年9月21日到12月26日，在短短的3个月内，标普500指数下跌了20.2%，苹果股价暴跌40%。这样的历史在2020年再度重演，并不是没有可能。</span></p><p><span>第二、COVID疫情，旷日持久，其造成的损失大大超乎我们的想象。目前来看，全球主要国家的政府和医护人员，在应对COVID疫情上，都积累了相当经验。中国第一个从疫情中走出，并且恢复正常的经济秩序，让全世界人民感到鼓舞，看到希望。美国的一些州，和欧洲的一些国家，都纷纷开始逐步放开封城，争取慢慢恢复经济活动。但是，如果COVID再度恢复大面积传染，威胁一些国家的医疗系统，逼迫政府再度宣布封城，并如此反复的话，对经济的打击会更大，也很可能会再次拖着股市往下走。</span></p><p><span>第三、为了应对COVID疫情，各主要国家的央行把基准利率降为零，甚至推出了无限量量化宽松。那么如果股市再度因为一些原因下跌的话，央行和政府还有更多的救市工具么？把利率降到负，也不是不可能，但是效果如何则很难预测。通过量化宽松买各种债券，包括垃圾债券，已经是极富争议。难道接下来央行要直接入场买股票么？如果股市感觉到接下来政府和央行的选项有限的话，很可能会把担忧转化为下跌的动因。</span></p><p><span>股市的走向，永远都充满变数，有时候甚至有些无厘头。如果以为基于一些简单和线性的逻辑，就能轻松预测股市的涨跌，那么投资者就显然堕入了过度自信的行为学陷阱。我们要时刻提醒自己，股市总是受到很多不同的因素影响，不停消化对于未来的预期。只有摸清了股市运行的特点，才能让自己在不确定的股市中，做出更加理性的投资决策。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么美国股市逆流而上？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/69\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/97e09863206344e0b010e09146f1c4fc);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">伍治坚证据主义 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-05-01 11:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>3月22日开始，美国每周申请失业金的人数，屡创新高。截至4月23日，在短短的一个月内，失业总人数达到了2500多万。美国的劳动力人口总数，大约为1.6亿。也就是说，在过去一个月，美国的失业率，飙升到16%左右。如此的高失业率水平，十分罕见，在过去百年的历史中，仅次于1930年代大萧条时期大约25%左右的失业率。</span></p><p><span>但是，一个让人有点意外的现象，是同期的美国股市，非但没有下跌，而且还上涨了很多。标普500指数的收盘价，在3月23日和4月23日分别为2237点和2797点。就是说，在那短短的一个月内，美国股市上涨了25%。任何一个股市，如果在一年内上涨25%，都可以被认为是牛市。然而美国股市仅用一个月就涨了那么多，而且是在其失业率屡创新高的情况下完成的，怪不得让很多投资者摸不着头脑。</span></p><p><span>为什么经济的基本面，和股市的走向之间，有如此大的分歧？大致来讲，有这么几个解释。</span></p><p><span>第一、笔者在FT中文网之前的文章《股市不是经济》中，曾经专门指出，股市的一大特点，就是总是向前看。因此我们经常可以看到股市和经济貌似脱钩的现象。</span></p><p><span>当我们看到美国经济中的失业率屡创新高时，其股市很可能已经在消化接下来的这些问题：什么时候复工？复工以后消费和投资会有多少复苏？公司的盈利会有哪些变化？等等。股市在过去一个月内的上涨，反映的恰恰是市场对于复工以及复工后经济活动的反弹的乐观预期。</span></p><p><span>在美国股市历史上，这样的例子比比皆是。举例来说，从1930年算起，标普500指数公司平均盈利下降的年份，共发生过30次。而在其中的23年，标普500指数都上涨了。在平均盈利下降的30个年份中，有16个年份的降幅超过10%。然而在这16年中的11年，标普500指数都上涨了。更有8个年份，标普500指数上涨了10%以上。</span></p><p><span>第二、标普500指数不代表美国所有的公司。标普500指数中的公司成员，主要是美国市值最大的500家公司（注：严格来讲市值并非唯一选取标准，但大致来说标普500代表了美国最大的公司）。在各行各业之中，这些公司都是本行业的领头羊。在经济正常运行的期间，大市值股票的投资回报，未必比中小市值股票更好。有时候，情况还会反过来，即中小市值的股价上涨超过大市值股票。然而，在COVID疫情期间，大公司的优势体现了出来。他们的韧性更强，有规模更大的资产负债表，有更多的人力资源及时申请各种政府补贴，也更容易从银行获得应急贷款，或者从股市和债市以更低廉的成本融到宝贵的资金。</span></p><p><span>股市的表现，恰恰体现了不同规模公司对于疫情的抗打击能力。从年初算起，截至4月24日，追踪大市值公司的标普500指数ETF（IVV）回报为负11%，而中市值股票ETF（IJH）和小市值股票ETF（VB）在同期的回报，分别为负24%和负22%，比大市值股票差了一倍，足可见这些公司承受的压力。</span></p><p><span>市值加权指数，本质上是一个优胜劣汰的筛选器。在竞争中胜出，市值不断变大的股票，有朝一日会被囊括到股票指数中。而那些竞争优势不强，被慢慢淘汰的公司，则会在市值不断减小的过程中，被剔除出指数，或者从大市值指数降级到中小市值指数。购买市值加权指数基金，特别是大市值指数基金，其实就是买整个经济中表现最强的公司。在COVID疫情这样的情况下，购买大市值指数基金，是一个比较简单的筛选更强公司的方法。</span></p><p><span>第三、目前的标普500指数，有很强的行业偏重。指数中占比最大的行业，是信息技术行业，占到总市值的27%左右。指数中权重最大的十家公司，有一半都是科技企业：微软、苹果、亚马逊、脸书和谷歌。这些公司的市值加起来，达到标普500指数20%左右的权重。</span></p><p><span>横扫全球的COVID疫情，给航空、酒店、餐饮等行业造成了毁灭性打击，却意外的成为了科技企业的一场盛宴。这是因为，大家都关在家里远程办公，对于笔记本电脑、远程视频、云服务、网络电商的需求反而增加了。因此，标普500指数的上涨，更多的体现了这次疫情中那些赢家公司的收获，而非整个经济基本面的复苏。</span></p><p><span>第四、在我们看到疫情带来的各种坏消息的同时，不要忘记，各国政府和央行推出的大规模的救市政策。比如美国国会通过2万亿美元CARES法案，救援受到疫情影响的大小企业、政府机构和个人。美联储将基准利率下调到0~0.25%，宣布无限量量化宽松，购买包括垃圾债券在内的各级别债券。欧洲央行推出2020年量化宽松计划PEPP，宣布购买价值8000亿欧元的债券。地球上几乎所有的主要国家，要么推出大型财政刺激，给个人和企业发钱或者减税，要么推出宽松的货币政策，通过降息和量化宽松向市场注入流动性，或者干脆双管齐下。政府提供的这些流动性，迟早会有一部分流入股市，对几乎所有公司的估值起到一定的支撑作用。</span></p><p><span>当然，上面这些因素，主要解释了最近一个月的上涨。但从总体上来看，COVID疫情对于经济和公司的打击，远远高于一开始所有人的估计。这也是为什么今年到目前为止股市还是下跌的原因所在。基于COVID疫情发展的高度不确定性，接下来的股市走向，同样充满了不确定性。</span></p><p><span>那么，有什么因素，可能导致美国股市再次下跌呢？在这里，让我和大家分享几个可能的情况：</span></p><p><span>第一、最大规模的科技企业，比如微软、谷歌、苹果和亚马逊，发生股价下跌。由于这些公司的市值，在股市指数中占有绝对的主导地位，因此如果他们的股价发生大幅度下跌，那么就可能引发整个股市的下跌潮。这样的情况并非不可能发生，而且最近才发生过。从2018年9月21日到12月26日，在短短的3个月内，标普500指数下跌了20.2%，苹果股价暴跌40%。这样的历史在2020年再度重演，并不是没有可能。</span></p><p><span>第二、COVID疫情，旷日持久，其造成的损失大大超乎我们的想象。目前来看，全球主要国家的政府和医护人员，在应对COVID疫情上，都积累了相当经验。中国第一个从疫情中走出，并且恢复正常的经济秩序，让全世界人民感到鼓舞，看到希望。美国的一些州，和欧洲的一些国家，都纷纷开始逐步放开封城，争取慢慢恢复经济活动。但是，如果COVID再度恢复大面积传染，威胁一些国家的医疗系统，逼迫政府再度宣布封城，并如此反复的话，对经济的打击会更大，也很可能会再次拖着股市往下走。</span></p><p><span>第三、为了应对COVID疫情，各主要国家的央行把基准利率降为零，甚至推出了无限量量化宽松。那么如果股市再度因为一些原因下跌的话，央行和政府还有更多的救市工具么？把利率降到负，也不是不可能，但是效果如何则很难预测。通过量化宽松买各种债券，包括垃圾债券，已经是极富争议。难道接下来央行要直接入场买股票么？如果股市感觉到接下来政府和央行的选项有限的话，很可能会把担忧转化为下跌的动因。</span></p><p><span>股市的走向，永远都充满变数，有时候甚至有些无厘头。如果以为基于一些简单和线性的逻辑，就能轻松预测股市的涨跌，那么投资者就显然堕入了过度自信的行为学陷阱。我们要时刻提醒自己，股市总是受到很多不同的因素影响，不停消化对于未来的预期。只有摸清了股市运行的特点，才能让自己在不确定的股市中，做出更加理性的投资决策。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f82d8768fa0d8d16ec94adc5f737bc6","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116127917","content_text":"3月22日开始，美国每周申请失业金的人数，屡创新高。截至4月23日，在短短的一个月内，失业总人数达到了2500多万。美国的劳动力人口总数，大约为1.6亿。也就是说，在过去一个月，美国的失业率，飙升到16%左右。如此的高失业率水平，十分罕见，在过去百年的历史中，仅次于1930年代大萧条时期大约25%左右的失业率。但是，一个让人有点意外的现象，是同期的美国股市，非但没有下跌，而且还上涨了很多。标普500指数的收盘价，在3月23日和4月23日分别为2237点和2797点。就是说，在那短短的一个月内，美国股市上涨了25%。任何一个股市，如果在一年内上涨25%，都可以被认为是牛市。然而美国股市仅用一个月就涨了那么多，而且是在其失业率屡创新高的情况下完成的，怪不得让很多投资者摸不着头脑。为什么经济的基本面，和股市的走向之间，有如此大的分歧？大致来讲，有这么几个解释。第一、笔者在FT中文网之前的文章《股市不是经济》中，曾经专门指出，股市的一大特点，就是总是向前看。因此我们经常可以看到股市和经济貌似脱钩的现象。当我们看到美国经济中的失业率屡创新高时，其股市很可能已经在消化接下来的这些问题：什么时候复工？复工以后消费和投资会有多少复苏？公司的盈利会有哪些变化？等等。股市在过去一个月内的上涨，反映的恰恰是市场对于复工以及复工后经济活动的反弹的乐观预期。在美国股市历史上，这样的例子比比皆是。举例来说，从1930年算起，标普500指数公司平均盈利下降的年份，共发生过30次。而在其中的23年，标普500指数都上涨了。在平均盈利下降的30个年份中，有16个年份的降幅超过10%。然而在这16年中的11年，标普500指数都上涨了。更有8个年份，标普500指数上涨了10%以上。第二、标普500指数不代表美国所有的公司。标普500指数中的公司成员，主要是美国市值最大的500家公司（注：严格来讲市值并非唯一选取标准，但大致来说标普500代表了美国最大的公司）。在各行各业之中，这些公司都是本行业的领头羊。在经济正常运行的期间，大市值股票的投资回报，未必比中小市值股票更好。有时候，情况还会反过来，即中小市值的股价上涨超过大市值股票。然而，在COVID疫情期间，大公司的优势体现了出来。他们的韧性更强，有规模更大的资产负债表，有更多的人力资源及时申请各种政府补贴，也更容易从银行获得应急贷款，或者从股市和债市以更低廉的成本融到宝贵的资金。股市的表现，恰恰体现了不同规模公司对于疫情的抗打击能力。从年初算起，截至4月24日，追踪大市值公司的标普500指数ETF（IVV）回报为负11%，而中市值股票ETF（IJH）和小市值股票ETF（VB）在同期的回报，分别为负24%和负22%，比大市值股票差了一倍，足可见这些公司承受的压力。市值加权指数，本质上是一个优胜劣汰的筛选器。在竞争中胜出，市值不断变大的股票，有朝一日会被囊括到股票指数中。而那些竞争优势不强，被慢慢淘汰的公司，则会在市值不断减小的过程中，被剔除出指数，或者从大市值指数降级到中小市值指数。购买市值加权指数基金，特别是大市值指数基金，其实就是买整个经济中表现最强的公司。在COVID疫情这样的情况下，购买大市值指数基金，是一个比较简单的筛选更强公司的方法。第三、目前的标普500指数，有很强的行业偏重。指数中占比最大的行业，是信息技术行业，占到总市值的27%左右。指数中权重最大的十家公司，有一半都是科技企业：微软、苹果、亚马逊、脸书和谷歌。这些公司的市值加起来，达到标普500指数20%左右的权重。横扫全球的COVID疫情，给航空、酒店、餐饮等行业造成了毁灭性打击，却意外的成为了科技企业的一场盛宴。这是因为，大家都关在家里远程办公，对于笔记本电脑、远程视频、云服务、网络电商的需求反而增加了。因此，标普500指数的上涨，更多的体现了这次疫情中那些赢家公司的收获，而非整个经济基本面的复苏。第四、在我们看到疫情带来的各种坏消息的同时，不要忘记，各国政府和央行推出的大规模的救市政策。比如美国国会通过2万亿美元CARES法案，救援受到疫情影响的大小企业、政府机构和个人。美联储将基准利率下调到0~0.25%，宣布无限量量化宽松，购买包括垃圾债券在内的各级别债券。欧洲央行推出2020年量化宽松计划PEPP，宣布购买价值8000亿欧元的债券。地球上几乎所有的主要国家，要么推出大型财政刺激，给个人和企业发钱或者减税，要么推出宽松的货币政策，通过降息和量化宽松向市场注入流动性，或者干脆双管齐下。政府提供的这些流动性，迟早会有一部分流入股市，对几乎所有公司的估值起到一定的支撑作用。当然，上面这些因素，主要解释了最近一个月的上涨。但从总体上来看，COVID疫情对于经济和公司的打击，远远高于一开始所有人的估计。这也是为什么今年到目前为止股市还是下跌的原因所在。基于COVID疫情发展的高度不确定性，接下来的股市走向，同样充满了不确定性。那么，有什么因素，可能导致美国股市再次下跌呢？在这里，让我和大家分享几个可能的情况：第一、最大规模的科技企业，比如微软、谷歌、苹果和亚马逊，发生股价下跌。由于这些公司的市值，在股市指数中占有绝对的主导地位，因此如果他们的股价发生大幅度下跌，那么就可能引发整个股市的下跌潮。这样的情况并非不可能发生，而且最近才发生过。从2018年9月21日到12月26日，在短短的3个月内，标普500指数下跌了20.2%，苹果股价暴跌40%。这样的历史在2020年再度重演，并不是没有可能。第二、COVID疫情，旷日持久，其造成的损失大大超乎我们的想象。目前来看，全球主要国家的政府和医护人员，在应对COVID疫情上，都积累了相当经验。中国第一个从疫情中走出，并且恢复正常的经济秩序，让全世界人民感到鼓舞，看到希望。美国的一些州，和欧洲的一些国家，都纷纷开始逐步放开封城，争取慢慢恢复经济活动。但是，如果COVID再度恢复大面积传染，威胁一些国家的医疗系统，逼迫政府再度宣布封城，并如此反复的话，对经济的打击会更大，也很可能会再次拖着股市往下走。第三、为了应对COVID疫情，各主要国家的央行把基准利率降为零，甚至推出了无限量量化宽松。那么如果股市再度因为一些原因下跌的话，央行和政府还有更多的救市工具么？把利率降到负，也不是不可能，但是效果如何则很难预测。通过量化宽松买各种债券，包括垃圾债券，已经是极富争议。难道接下来央行要直接入场买股票么？如果股市感觉到接下来政府和央行的选项有限的话，很可能会把担忧转化为下跌的动因。股市的走向，永远都充满变数，有时候甚至有些无厘头。如果以为基于一些简单和线性的逻辑，就能轻松预测股市的涨跌，那么投资者就显然堕入了过度自信的行为学陷阱。我们要时刻提醒自己，股市总是受到很多不同的因素影响，不停消化对于未来的预期。只有摸清了股市运行的特点，才能让自己在不确定的股市中，做出更加理性的投资决策。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3561952668232706","authorId":"3561952668232706","name":"财源广进get","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3951396930e961e23657d70c834547d4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561952668232706","authorIdStr":"3561952668232706"},"content":"新股打了没","text":"新股打了没","html":"新股打了没"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":933147511,"gmtCreate":1569603493533,"gmtModify":1704719795343,"author":{"id":"3500014400754697","authorId":"3500014400754697","name":"A西门大官人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12df916493d0c1a02ff1a2fa0140a1dc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3500014400754697","authorIdStr":"3500014400754697"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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