大鳄鱼索罗的个人主页 - 老虎社区

大鳄鱼索罗

大鳄鱼索罗

个人简介：喜欢价值投资只做正股的大鳄鱼

IP属地：福建

161关注

5635粉丝

28主题

0勋章

大鳄鱼索罗

04-09

目前美国的主要竞争对手都陷入了人口萎缩，未来劳动力都会锐减，美国这种吸收人口的方式别的国家很难学得来。//@33_Tiger:确实如此，上周非农公布后，分析师评论类似说法，提到美国国会预算办公室CBO的一篇报告说，美国政府事实上低估了这两年进入美国的非法移民数量。仅23年一年，非法移民进入美国的数量就达到了330万人，加上22年的110万和24年开年的一百多万，美国在最近三年中，劳动力人口增加了小六百万之巨。而美国实际的劳动人口数量不过一亿六千万人。考虑到非法移民以成年人居多，几乎全部都是劳动力年龄，相当于美国今年劳动人口增加了4%以上。

@33_Tiger:确实如此，上周非农公布后，分析师评论类似说法，提到美国国会预算办公室CBO的一篇报告说，美国政府事实上低估了这两年进入美国的非法移民数量。仅23年一年，非法移民进入美国的数量就达到了330万人，加上22年的110万和24年开年的一百多万，美国在最近三年中，劳动力人口增加了小六百万之巨。而美国实际的劳动人口数量不过一亿六千万人。考虑到非法移民以成年人居多，几乎全部都是劳动力年龄，相当于美国今年劳动人口增加了4%以上。

大鳄鱼索罗

01-22

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 乐死[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]

大鳄鱼索罗

2023-04-19

$Meta Platforms(META)$ 裁员概念股[笑哭]

大鳄鱼索罗

2021-10-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉和比特币就是大鳄鱼新的美国梦[爱你] [爱你] [爱你] [爱你] [爱你]

大鳄鱼索罗

2021-07-26

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$再碰中概我就是狗[流泪] [流泪]

大鳄鱼索罗

2021-07-08

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$下辈子也不碰中丐股了，垃圾！

大鳄鱼索罗

2021-05-04

等到2030年：美联储的资产负债表为100万亿美元，央行拥有债券和股票市场的99.999％，实际通胀率为1,000,000％，但调整后的非GAAP CPI为0.01，比特币为100,000,000美元106岁的查理·芒格仍在取笑“比特币”

@巴伦周刊:当巴菲特说“NO”，新一代投资者还听得进去吗？

大鳄鱼索罗

2021-02-23

$波音(BA)$波音公司这个大而不能倒的死样子，按理说管理层都应该被双规，换一整套新班子，再清清余毒，一年就能整顿好，但美国的体制问题，搞不了，还得继续用国防预算输血。麦道这样的办公室政治怪物，把病带给了波音，然后和华盛顿官僚牢牢绑定，这是个死局。

大鳄鱼索罗

2021-01-06

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴建仓[想吃]

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-12-19

$特斯拉(TSLA)$[DOGE] [DOGE] [DOGE] [DOGE] 老股东出来蹭个热度

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-11-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$人生第一只十倍股[龇牙]

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-10-02

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$在白宫的川普非亲属成员中，任何感染人大概率都不会传染到川普，但是当我昨天知道首席美人Hope新冠检测程阳性的时候，我觉得川普感染就成了大概率事件。因为自古都是英雄难过美人关嘛。[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-10-02

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$$道琼斯(.DJI)$大统领十多个小时没有发推了，想他[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-09-01

$特斯拉(TSLA)$[正经] [正经] [正经] [正经] [正经] [正经] 为什么可以这么爽

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-08-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉拆股没拆价格，然后我的账号就提示风险了，该怎么办？@Tony特别帅

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-08-29

$微软(MSFT)$当.net和C#被微软做烂，我就知道这个公司没有前途，收购啥也不管用，这不是一家精益求精的公司，崇尚半吊子、崇尚以不变应万变、崇尚差不多能用就行，干大事而惜身，见小利而忘命，就是个公司和这桩交易的最佳写照

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-08-24

$特斯拉(TSLA)$空头们内裤还在不在？[开心] [开心] [开心]

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-08-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$太离谱了[喷血]

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-08-08

$洛克希德马丁(LMT)$”洛马创下一周内交付13架F-35的新纪录“ 有点老美国的样子

大鳄鱼索罗

2020-07-13

$特斯拉(TSLA)$[爱你] [爱你] [爱你] [爱你] [爱你] [爱你] 爽爆了

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/740450932848\">@33_Tiger</a>:确实如此，上周非农公布后，分析师评论类似说法，提到美国国会预算办公室CBO的一篇报告说，美国政府事实上低估了这两年进入美国的非法移民数量。仅23年一年，非法移民进入美国的数量就达到了330万人，加上22年的110万和24年开年的一百多万，美国在最近三年中，劳动力人口增加了小六百万之巨。而美国实际的劳动人口数量不过一亿六千万人。考虑到非法移民以成年人居多，几乎全部都是劳动力年龄，相当于美国今年劳动人口增加了4%以上。","text":"目前美国的主要竞争对手都陷入了人口萎缩，未来劳动力都会锐减，美国这种吸收人口的方式别的国家很难学得来。//@33_Tiger:确实如此，上周非农公布后，分析师评论类似说法，提到美国国会预算办公室CBO的一篇报告说，美国政府事实上低估了这两年进入美国的非法移民数量。仅23年一年，非法移民进入美国的数量就达到了330万人，加上22年的110万和24年开年的一百多万，美国在最近三年中，劳动力人口增加了小六百万之巨。而美国实际的劳动人口数量不过一亿六千万人。考虑到非法移民以成年人居多，几乎全部都是劳动力年龄，相当于美国今年劳动人口增加了4%以上。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293295891968184","repostId":"293134356791464","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":293134356791464,"gmtCreate":1712585625400,"gmtModify":1712585628731,"author":{"id":"740450932848","authorId":"740450932848","name":"33_Tiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa2c2a58a713dadbb19ede7c4c37d61d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"确实如此，上周非农公布后，分析师评论类似说法，提到美国国会预算办公室CBO的一篇报告说，美国政府事实上低估了这两年进入美国的非法移民数量。仅23年一年，非法移民进入美国的数量就达到了330万人，加上22年的110万和24年开年的一百多万，美国在最近三年中，劳动力人口增加了小六百万之巨。而美国实际的劳动人口数量不过一亿六千万人。考虑到非法移民以成年人居多，几乎全部都是劳动力年龄，相当于美国今年劳动人口增加了4%以上。","listText":"确实如此，上周非农公布后，分析师评论类似说法，提到美国国会预算办公室CBO的一篇报告说，美国政府事实上低估了这两年进入美国的非法移民数量。仅23年一年，非法移民进入美国的数量就达到了330万人，加上22年的110万和24年开年的一百多万，美国在最近三年中，劳动力人口增加了小六百万之巨。而美国实际的劳动人口数量不过一亿六千万人。考虑到非法移民以成年人居多，几乎全部都是劳动力年龄，相当于美国今年劳动人口增加了4%以上。","text":"确实如此，上周非农公布后，分析师评论类似说法，提到美国国会预算办公室CBO的一篇报告说，美国政府事实上低估了这两年进入美国的非法移民数量。仅23年一年，非法移民进入美国的数量就达到了330万人，加上22年的110万和24年开年的一百多万，美国在最近三年中，劳动力人口增加了小六百万之巨。而美国实际的劳动人口数量不过一亿六千万人。考虑到非法移民以成年人居多，几乎全部都是劳动力年龄，相当于美国今年劳动人口增加了4%以上。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293134356791464","repostId":"292892694294848","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":292892694294848,"gmtCreate":1712530395471,"gmtModify":1712717408489,"author":{"id":"3556673506813374","authorId":"3556673506813374","name":"谋定后动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865a6ec8ea0c03d186fb7dab736911ae","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"title":"【美股周记】2024年第14周——美股怪现象的根源：非法移民","htmlText":"上周五公布的3月非农就业数据远远超出市场预期，异常火爆，新增就业岗位高达30.3万个，远高于预期的20万个。这一强劲数据打击了市场对6月降息的预期，使6月降息的概率从之前的55%左右直线下跌至50%左右，甚至有分析师认为第一次降息时间可能推迟至7月或9月。 强劲的就业数据反映了美国经济的强劲 非农数据公布前一天，纳斯达克指数大跌1.53%，标普500指数下跌1.26%，道指下跌0.59%，VIX恐慌指数也大涨14%至17，似乎预示着一轮下跌行情的到来。但就业数据公布后，三大股指当天就强劲反弹，抹去了前一日的大部分跌幅。这样的剧本在近期反复上演，令不少押注大跌的投资者来回被割。事实上，近几个月来，尽管市场对降息时间和力度的预期不断变化，但大盘整体仍显韧性，未出现持续性的大跌行情。 因此这段时间不要频繁操作。 近期美股逻辑的变化：经济走强并不意味通胀回头 通常的经济理论认为，通胀的产生是因为需求增加，或者是供给减少，或者两者有之。 那么对症下药的办法就是降低需求，对应美联储的工具箱就是加息。利息高了，人们消费的欲望就得到抑制。 还有一种降低通胀的办法：那就是增加供给。就是提高生产率，生产出更多的产品满足需求；或者理顺物流环节，这也能带来供给的提升。 就业人数远超预期，失业率也在低位徘徊，说明经济增长强劲，带动就业的强劲，然而通胀却是在持续地下降中，这说明一种可能：通胀的下跌主要是供给端因素改善造成的。一个例子就是P&amp;G最新的财报显示，需求端消费者的热情高涨，带动销量大涨，但单价却没增加多少；物流公司J.B.Hunt的财报显示，货物量大涨，但是商品的价格却没有多少变化。 旧金山联储发布的数据也支持这个观点，上图是按季度通胀拆分比例图。绿色是需求贡献的部分，蓝色是供给贡献的部分，黄色是未知因素。在图中，需求端（蓝色）部分的下滑是推动通胀下跌的主要因素。 插句不大讨喜","listText":"上周五公布的3月非农就业数据远远超出市场预期，异常火爆，新增就业岗位高达30.3万个，远高于预期的20万个。这一强劲数据打击了市场对6月降息的预期，使6月降息的概率从之前的55%左右直线下跌至50%左右，甚至有分析师认为第一次降息时间可能推迟至7月或9月。 强劲的就业数据反映了美国经济的强劲 非农数据公布前一天，纳斯达克指数大跌1.53%，标普500指数下跌1.26%，道指下跌0.59%，VIX恐慌指数也大涨14%至17，似乎预示着一轮下跌行情的到来。但就业数据公布后，三大股指当天就强劲反弹，抹去了前一日的大部分跌幅。这样的剧本在近期反复上演，令不少押注大跌的投资者来回被割。事实上，近几个月来，尽管市场对降息时间和力度的预期不断变化，但大盘整体仍显韧性，未出现持续性的大跌行情。 因此这段时间不要频繁操作。 近期美股逻辑的变化：经济走强并不意味通胀回头 通常的经济理论认为，通胀的产生是因为需求增加，或者是供给减少，或者两者有之。 那么对症下药的办法就是降低需求，对应美联储的工具箱就是加息。利息高了，人们消费的欲望就得到抑制。 还有一种降低通胀的办法：那就是增加供给。就是提高生产率，生产出更多的产品满足需求；或者理顺物流环节，这也能带来供给的提升。 就业人数远超预期，失业率也在低位徘徊，说明经济增长强劲，带动就业的强劲，然而通胀却是在持续地下降中，这说明一种可能：通胀的下跌主要是供给端因素改善造成的。一个例子就是P&amp;G最新的财报显示，需求端消费者的热情高涨，带动销量大涨，但单价却没增加多少；物流公司J.B.Hunt的财报显示，货物量大涨，但是商品的价格却没有多少变化。 旧金山联储发布的数据也支持这个观点，上图是按季度通胀拆分比例图。绿色是需求贡献的部分，蓝色是供给贡献的部分，黄色是未知因素。在图中，需求端（蓝色）部分的下滑是推动通胀下跌的主要因素。 插句不大讨喜","text":"上周五公布的3月非农就业数据远远超出市场预期，异常火爆，新增就业岗位高达30.3万个，远高于预期的20万个。这一强劲数据打击了市场对6月降息的预期，使6月降息的概率从之前的55%左右直线下跌至50%左右，甚至有分析师认为第一次降息时间可能推迟至7月或9月。 强劲的就业数据反映了美国经济的强劲 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插句不大讨喜","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deb9fb7e6b7eb23330dfddcf4cc7873c","width":"4680","height":"3484"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/292892694294848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":57,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":265779330392128,"gmtCreate":1705905972887,"gmtModify":1705905973861,"author":{"id":"3497648960843341","authorId":"3497648960843341","name":"大鳄鱼索罗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22ac3c304e8ca982468122b765caf245","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$&nbsp;</a>裁员概念股[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"$Meta Platforms(META)$ 裁员概念股[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651217110","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850775748,"gmtCreate":1634633096720,"gmtModify":1634634395210,"author":{"id":"3497648960843341","authorId":"3497648960843341","name":"大鳄鱼索罗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22ac3c304e8ca982468122b765caf245","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>特斯拉和比特币就是大鳄鱼新的美国梦[爱你]&nbsp;[爱你]&nbsp;[爱你]&nbsp;[爱你]&nbsp;[爱你]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>特斯拉和比特币就是大鳄鱼新的美国梦[爱你]&nbsp;[爱你]&nbsp;[爱你]&nbsp;[爱你]&nbsp;[爱你]&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$特斯拉和比特币就是大鳄鱼新的美国梦[爱你] [爱你] [爱你] [爱你] [爱你]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1e0f733e912dc8fa35f8d2d6074447e","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850775748","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"鑫鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d2f1f10442d11e847ff989eb36f7a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"哈哈哈！恭喜啦！","text":"哈哈哈！恭喜啦！","html":"哈哈哈！恭喜啦！"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800613884,"gmtCreate":1627297111448,"gmtModify":1627297493505,"author":{"id":"3497648960843341","authorId":"3497648960843341","name":"大鳄鱼索罗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22ac3c304e8ca982468122b765caf245","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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