董盛任的个人主页 - 老虎社区

董盛任

董盛任

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IP属地：北京

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2021-10-14

24年黄花菜都凉了

@PSACCALL99:$Faraday Future(FFIE)$FF91中国量产里程碑预测

2021-02-20

法拉第冲

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-17

回复 @乱糟糟的:哈哈，笑死我了//@乱糟糟的:这几天看不到你的消息，都有点想你了。

@别惹我我会王八拳:$Property Solutions Acquisition Corp(PSAC)$说几点：1、从投资行业来看：新能源车行业虽然说是未来整个汽车行业的发展方向，但是短期内投资热度过高，严重泡沫化。纵观历史行业发展，过度泡沫化所带来的必然后果，就是泡沫破碎之后的一地鸡毛。所以，在这个时间节点，珠海市急于上马新能源车项目，并非理性投资，不仅仅有跟风炒作之嫌，是否真正做掉投资前的尽职调查，值得商榷。2、从投资标的来看：如果仅仅从合肥市对于蔚来的所谓“成功投资”而基于攀附一家新能源车企，法拉第未来也绝对不是一个好的投资标的。FF 已经创立数年，且负面消息不断，且目前未有任何实质性项目进展，一切只靠吹嘘并停留在PPT阶段。更重要的是，FF掌舵者贾老板，诚信度严重有问题。不是说一个人没有改过自新的机会，而是说一个有财务破产和诚信破产记录的人，任何时候对其投资都要慎之又慎。此前各类机构对于FF的投资，包括恒大、第九城市等，均打了水漂。所以，哪怕是一家新成立的新能源车公司，其都会比FF是一个更好的投资标的。最后，此事的结果有几种可能：1、FF 在珠海落地并发展成功：0%。2、FF 在珠海落地，并在短期内就宣布项目失败：99%3、FF 无法在珠海落地：99%

2021-01-29

未来都打错了..这还官方呢

@冒险岛之旅:$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来加油💪

2020-06-26

很有道理

邮轮一哥之殇：巨亏44亿美元，下半年每月烧6.5亿美元

2020-03-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$平时就你跌的最多，今晚怎么就你这么刚，还不下来10个点？

2020-02-06

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 冲🐛

2020-02-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 跌了就赶紧补呀，做股东呀是不是傻

2020-02-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 赌场又开门了，追1000不，兄弟们

2020-02-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 什么时候美股回调呀，再不回调就真的要上天了

2020-02-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 止盈了，5天涨40%属实有点过分了

2020-02-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 我想问一下建行入金还能入吗，想加点筹码，杠杆好早就上满了

2017-11-20

自从我从赚900到亏1200只用了5分钟

$迅雷(XNET)$让我知道了什么叫见好就收

自从我从赚900到亏1200只用了5分钟

2017-11-16

腾讯adr开盘涨2.5个点，

$腾讯控股(00700)$目前adr折合港币393.8，说跌的明天见分晓

腾讯adr开盘涨2.5个点，

2017-11-09

我tmT+0为0了

$搜狗(SOGO)$可以今天买，明天开盘卖吗？会被封90天吗？提示建仓会被冻90天

我tmT+0为0了

2017-11-09

全仓空

$携程网(CTRP)$各种微博，头条..连万能钥匙都弹窗，真是好事不出门坏事传千里，负面消息反涨的那还是头一次。

2017-11-08

小盘真心不能碰

$迅雷(XNET)$稍不注意就是庄家控盘，回本了就走，cao

小盘真心不能碰

2017-11-07

大家觉得明天腾讯还会再冲刺1天吗？

$腾讯控股(00700)$连涨5天了，而且是爆炸上升，离财报还有7天，前期这么疯涨，感觉15号的财报有点悬啊。

大家觉得明天腾讯还会再冲刺1天吗？

2017-11-07

我想问一下关于窝轮

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 买了到期日2018年3月22日的期权，行权日403，价值近2万港币，我想问一下，如果期权翻成2倍，我是不是卖了赚2万，反之亏两万，到3月18号之前都可以交易对吗？如果没交易的话，行权的结果是什么呢？获得403买腾讯的股票的权利，但是我原本的2万港币呢去哪里了？

我想问一下关于窝轮

2017-10-03

往年双十一都跌是什么原因？

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$往年双十一都跌是什么原因？

往年双十一都跌是什么原因？

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无法在珠海落地：99%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/385735518","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316624210,"gmtCreate":1611931558930,"gmtModify":1703756591227,"author":{"id":"3462110539633696","authorId":"3462110539633696","name":"董盛任","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e85224c9e22a913e14edd0f48f65f3d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462110539633696","idStr":"3462110539633696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"未来都打错了..这还官方呢","listText":"未来都打错了..这还官方呢","text":"未来都打错了..这还官方呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316624210","repostId":"316620080","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":316620080,"gmtCreate":1611931341640,"gmtModify":1703756578991,"author":{"id":"3522291071587475","authorId":"3522291071587475","name":"冒险岛之旅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f9140f1c1b1ce2afcaaaabfafec228","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3522291071587475","idStr":"3522291071587475"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来加油💪","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>蔚来加油💪","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$蔚来加油💪","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6085030fdd8c27ff9e3a7c2652760793","width":"828","height":"1792"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316620080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":957021344,"gmtCreate":1593104607388,"gmtModify":1704201236265,"author":{"id":"3462110539633696","authorId":"3462110539633696","name":"董盛任","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e85224c9e22a913e14edd0f48f65f3d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462110539633696","idStr":"3462110539633696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很有道理","listText":"很有道理","text":"很有道理","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/957021344","repostId":"1156258419","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156258419","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1593097065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156258419?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-25 22:57","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"邮轮一哥之殇：巨亏44亿美元，下半年每月烧6.5亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156258419","media":"执惠","summary":"世界上最大的邮轮公司嘉年华集团的危机再添一重。\n继今年5月，知名评级机构穆迪将嘉年华集团下调至垃圾级后，最近，另一大知名评级机构标准普尔将嘉年华集团的长期评级从BBB-级下调三级至BB-级，称该邮轮公","content":"<p>世界上最大的邮轮公司嘉年华集团的危机再添一重。</p>\n<p>继今年5月，知名评级机构穆迪将嘉年华集团下调至垃圾级后，最近，另一大知名评级机构标准普尔将嘉年华集团的长期评级从BBB-级下调三级至BB-级，称该邮轮公司的信贷指标“至少在2021年底之前仍将非常疲软”。</p>\n<p>这次评级下调意味着嘉年华集团脱离了投资级信用评级，通俗来说，<b><span>嘉年华集团接下来的融资将更为不易</span></b>。</p>\n<p>今年3月，为救急，嘉年华集团宣布筹集60亿美元资金，<b><span>其中债券票面利率被认为高到“难以置信”</span></b>，可窥其筹资之急，或融资之难。</p>\n<p>作为家大业大的邮轮“一哥”，嘉年华2020财年二季度净亏损已达44亿美元，并计划在未来三个月内出售旗下至少6艘邮轮。<b><span>其预测，今年下半年每个月的成本高达6.5亿美元</span></b>。</p>\n<p>而另一面，嘉年华集团已主动延长邮轮复航期，何时复航依然未知，何时复苏更显漫长。</p>\n<p>嘉年华集团旗下邮轮堪称行走的“印钞机”。其2019年度财报显示，其净利润约30亿美元（约合人民币210亿元），每天约赚6000万元人民币。</p>\n<p>但现在，<b><span>它们成为了“烧钞机”</span></b>。</p>\n<p><span>01、</span><b><span>巨亏44亿美元，被评为垃圾股</span></b></p>\n<p>嘉年华集团今年第二季度财报显示，截至3月31日，净亏损44亿美元，收入只有7亿美元，而去年同期为48亿美元。其计划在未来三个月内出售旗下至少6艘邮轮，而这些资产本来计划是在未来几年内出售。</p>\n<p>提前出售，既减少成本，同时获取一定资金维持现金流安全。为此，<b><span>嘉年华集团不排除未来卖出更多邮轮的可能性</span></b>。</p>\n<p>疫情的蔓延和不确定性，使得邮轮公司也在“往后退”，由此前的非自愿等待疫情缓解，改换为自愿提出延长重启时间。6月19日，代表嘉年华集团、皇家加勒比、挪威等邮轮巨头的国际邮轮行业协会宣布旗下涉及海洋领域的邮轮会员单位，自愿将从美国港口出发的邮轮业务重启时间延至9月15日。</p>\n<p>早在今年4月，美国疾病控制与预防中心对美国港口出发的邮轮发布了禁航令，禁航令截至日期为今年7月24日。而至今，美国疾病控制与预防中心尚未更新或延长禁航令的日期。<b><span>重启在即，国际邮轮行业协会主动提出延期，已然是考虑到邮轮复航的困难和风险</span></b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/699cbb982b2eb35227c118e2b1e747b7\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"383\">以嘉年华集团来说，在去年12月下旬疫情开始爆发后，其旗下船只已发生几起重大疫情、隔离额死亡事件。嘉年华称，这些事件引发了“负面宣传”，可能会对品牌的吸引力产生长期影响，并减少人们在船只上度假的需求。</p>\n<p>嘉年华集团之前宣传在今年8月1日重启可能在技术层面上没问题，因为这与上述的禁航期至7月24日相差不大。但其CEO早在6月8日又对外表示，对8月1日复航表示怀疑。</p>\n<p><b><span>他们已不敢冒险，延长复航期，安全为上</span></b>。</p>\n<p>但成本或代价高昂。国际邮轮行业协会称，邮轮业每天暂停业务对美国经济的影响大约为1.1亿美元。而挪威邮轮称公司每月大约成本为1.1亿美元-1.5亿美元，目前的现金流仅能支撑不到10个月。皇家加勒比在停航期间每月的成本为2.5亿美元-2.75亿美元，<b><span>而嘉年华集团预测下半年每个月的成本高达6.5亿美元</span></b>（早前更表示每月成本为10亿美元）。</p>\n<p>嘉年华集团表示，每月6.5亿美元费用包括现有邮轮船只运营及管理费用、承诺资本支出（不包括承诺的出口信用贷款）、利息费用，不包括乘客定金及约定的到期债务。</p>\n<p>现金流压力随之而来。</p>\n<p>今年3月底，嘉年华集团宣布将通过发行股票和公司债的方式筹集60亿美元资金，按其计划，公司将发行价值12.5亿美元的股票，30亿美元的有担保债券和17.5亿美元的可转换债券，这些债券的到期日期均为2023年。</p>\n<p>但嘉年华集团可能要付出高额代价。有公开报道提及，嘉年华可能为上述高级担保债券支付12%以上的票面利率。此时，<b><span>嘉年华尚有投资评级，对应到这一利率之高让人“难以置信”</span></b>，若真如此操作，嘉年华后续将面临很大的财务压力。</p>\n<p>嘉年华集团需要“救急“，也需要为接下来邮轮行业长久的不确定性或停摆，提前做出应对准备。</p>\n<p>他们没有明确的信心。嘉年华集团曾提到，无法预测自己的任何船只将于何时复航，也无法预测港口重新开放时间。更关键在于疫后旅行建议和限制取消后，邮轮旅游的需求在相当长时间里可能保持疲软等。</p>\n<p>邮轮业虽赚钱，但也是债务堆积很高的行业。最近数据显示，挪威邮轮负债75亿美元，皇家加勒比负债130亿美元，<b><span>而嘉年华集团负债高达131亿美元</span></b>。</p>\n<p>另有数据显示，2020年第二季度，嘉年华集团有76亿美元可用流动资金，其计划进一步提升未来资金的流动性，包括为未来一年即将到期的24亿美元债务再融资（其中一半债务在2020年下半年到期）。此外，嘉年华还拥有88亿美元的承诺出口信贷额度，这笔有效期到2023年的资金原计划用于为其全球邮轮交付提供支持。</p>\n<p>但嘉年华集团要寻求更多的融资已更不容易。</p>\n<p>早在今年5月。评级机构穆迪将嘉年华集团的信用评级降至垃圾级别，即“Ba1”的信用评级，是垃圾级别中的最高一级，并将其高级无担保债券评级降低一格至“Ba1”。</p>\n<p><b><span>穆迪表示，嘉年华的财务指标“在可预见的未来不能显示投资等级”</span></b>，因为其邮轮仍处于暂停状态，任何复苏都可能缓慢。彼时，穆迪就预计上述7月24日禁令到期后，邮轮仍将继续暂停。</p>\n<p>不过，当时另一评级机构标准普尔将嘉年华集团的评级仍定为投资级别，但也表示考虑下调。</p>\n<p>不幸，最近标普将嘉年华的长期评级从BBB-级下调三级至BB-级，<b><span>称该邮轮公司的信贷指标“至少在2021年底之前仍将非常疲软”</span></b>。这一评级下调意味着嘉年华现处于第二高的高收益信贷评级，脱离了投资信用评级。</p>\n<p>标普不看好嘉年华的业务恢复乃至复苏。其认为，由于该嘉年华计划分阶段恢复正常运营，因此其在2021年的复苏将大大放缓。</p>\n<p><span>02、</span><b><span>每天赚6000万的印钞机，变为烧钞机</span></b></p>\n<p>疫情高压下，已有邮轮企业选择破产。</p>\n<p>早在今年3月初，日本神户夜光邮轮公司对外宣布，因受疫情影响，自1月份以来，一系列订单被迫取消，已提交破产申请。当然，破产背后还有一直未能摆脱业绩不佳的缘由，疫情是最后的“重压“</p>\n<p>3个多月后，西班牙最大的邮轮运营商伯曼邮轮最近宣布已根据西班牙破产法提出重组申请。伯曼邮轮由皇家加勒比持股49%，<b><span>在2019年已实现扭亏为盈，但疫情影响下，自称“重组是唯一的选择”</span></b>。</p>\n<p>相比下，嘉年华集团由于家大业大在融资能力、抗御疫情能力等方面，具备更多可能性，但如上述每月“干烧”6.5亿美元，加之融资环境变差，其下半年的风险系数正在走高，不复航就要亏钱，<b><span>摆在他们面前的两个主要问题：1、何时复航？2、何时复苏？</span></b></p>\n<p>这首先要回到邮轮旅游的赚钱模式。</p>\n<p><b><span>邮轮旅游也被称为“漂浮在黄金水道上的黄金产业”</span></b>，基于一艘邮轮能够提供吃住行游购娱的完整旅游体验链条服务，邮轮已算是移动的旅游目的地。做大客流量、延长客人的消费链条，是营收和盈利关键。</p>\n<p>嘉年华集团旗下邮轮堪称行走的“印钞机”。其2019年度财报显示，<b><span>其净利润约30亿美元（约合人民币210亿元），每天约赚6000万元人民币</span></b>。</p>\n<p>同时，嘉年华全年游客达1287万人，带来141亿美元的船票收入，约占公司总收入的60%，而游客在船上的消费收入占比虽非大头，但却是盈利关键。高档餐厅、表演娱乐、奢侈品店以及赌场等二消收入，带给游客丰富的邮轮旅游体验，毛利率也高。2019年嘉年华的船上消费收入为63亿美元，成本仅有21亿美元，毛利率达67%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467de41d3660f61cf894ca3a788e920\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"383\"></p>\n<p>其中赌场是盈利关键。拉斯维加斯、澳门曾有和现有的旅游业辉煌，脱离不了赌场作用。在赌场尚未大范围合法化的情境下，邮轮赌场在公海区域的开放，成为吸引不少有着赌博好奇心或欲望的游客，以及寻求“一掷千金”狂欢豪客的利器元素。</p>\n<p>诸如嘉年华还会采取一个策略，即以相对优惠的类同跟团游价格，吸引更多游客登上邮轮，在长达数天的邮轮旅游中，不断通过各种体验让游客掏钱埋单。</p>\n<p>此外，作为移动的目的地，邮轮公司也会与一些陆地目的地旅游供应商合作开发旅游项目，或自营开发线路产品，将邮轮客流在陆地目的地进行转化，带来另一方面的营收。</p>\n<p>考虑到市场的扩容，客群的差异化，以及需求的多元化，产品的多元化和覆盖目的地区域的广度，成为衡量一家邮轮公司竞争力的重要因素。</p>\n<p>嘉年华选择不断并购扩张，疫情前已拥有嘉年华邮轮、荷美邮轮、公主邮轮等9个品牌，<b><span>运营105艘邮轮，可访问全球700多个港口</span></b>，覆盖地中海、加勒比海等重要目的地海域，且有环球航线，囊括平价到奢华级消费各层级链条。</p>\n<p>但是高密度人群长时间聚集、高封闭性乃至密闭性，成为疫情滋生及快速扩散的绝高隐患区。以嘉年华旗下公主号邮轮为例，<b><span>其在发现第一例疫情病例后，在隔离的14天内，感染人数迅速攀升至621人</span></b>。这种事件带给游客的恐惧感，以及事件传播等，将在邮轮既有以及潜在的消费客群中，可能留下很重的“心理阴影”，带来更为长期的消极影响。</p>\n<p>这也是为何在疫情尚未得以实质控制，未有良策解决疫情危机的境况下，嘉年华等邮轮巨头主动选择延长复航期的重要缘由，纵然要眼睁睁看着每天每月大量的成本损耗，他们已然难以承受类同公主邮轮的危机再现。</p>\n<p>近期，JP摩根在最近的一份报告里指出，<b><span>预计邮轮公司要恢复100%的入住率要等到2022年</span></b>。</p>\n<p>若参考这一预判，嘉年华集团等大小邮轮企业，要如何先活下去，坚持一年半乃至更长时间？</p>\n<p>一要看相关部门的政策，比如美国疾病控制与预防中心的开禁时间；二要看邮轮公司自己的策略和运营能力，何时复航，旗下哪个品牌先复航；更重要的是，如何在经济环境变差、心有畏惧的前提下说服原来的游客重启邮轮旅游，并在减少游客量以减少疫情风险的情况下，在运营成本和营收方面做好平衡；三要看邮轮公司的现金流储备和融资能力。</p>\n<p>中国区域会先成为邮轮巨头先觅得复苏机遇之地吗？2个多月前，嘉年华集团CEO就曾表示，随着疫情在中国境内消退，其社交活动正在恢复，率先重启市场合乎逻辑。</p>\n<p>但就目前中国境内疫情变化及大致走向看，<b><span>上述判断依然还有着很多不确定性，至少要延期不少</span></b>。大略来看，国内出境邮轮游今年内即明年上半年应该不用指望了，而这期间国内的邮轮游会有机会，但一来市场较小，二来留给它的时间也不会很多。所以，对嘉年华等邮轮公司来说，不乐观。</p>","source":"lsy1588216255330","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n邮轮一哥之殇：巨亏44亿美元，下半年每月烧6.5亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-25 22:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KR5d-c4hULhcmhbBwjxLeg><strong>执惠</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>世界上最大的邮轮公司嘉年华集团的危机再添一重。\n继今年5月，知名评级机构穆迪将嘉年华集团下调至垃圾级后，最近，另一大知名评级机构标准普尔将嘉年华集团的长期评级从BBB-级下调三级至BB-级，称该邮轮公司的信贷指标“至少在2021年底之前仍将非常疲软”。\n这次评级下调意味着嘉年华集团脱离了投资级信用评级，通俗来说，嘉年华集团接下来的融资将更为不易。\n今年3月，为救急，嘉年华集团宣布筹集60亿美元资金...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KR5d-c4hULhcmhbBwjxLeg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1b9793a7be07e48ab0ed78b1ded71e","relate_stocks":{"CCL":"嘉年华邮轮"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KR5d-c4hULhcmhbBwjxLeg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156258419","content_text":"世界上最大的邮轮公司嘉年华集团的危机再添一重。\n继今年5月，知名评级机构穆迪将嘉年华集团下调至垃圾级后，最近，另一大知名评级机构标准普尔将嘉年华集团的长期评级从BBB-级下调三级至BB-级，称该邮轮公司的信贷指标“至少在2021年底之前仍将非常疲软”。\n这次评级下调意味着嘉年华集团脱离了投资级信用评级，通俗来说，嘉年华集团接下来的融资将更为不易。\n今年3月，为救急，嘉年华集团宣布筹集60亿美元资金，其中债券票面利率被认为高到“难以置信”，可窥其筹资之急，或融资之难。\n作为家大业大的邮轮“一哥”，嘉年华2020财年二季度净亏损已达44亿美元，并计划在未来三个月内出售旗下至少6艘邮轮。其预测，今年下半年每个月的成本高达6.5亿美元。\n而另一面，嘉年华集团已主动延长邮轮复航期，何时复航依然未知，何时复苏更显漫长。\n嘉年华集团旗下邮轮堪称行走的“印钞机”。其2019年度财报显示，其净利润约30亿美元（约合人民币210亿元），每天约赚6000万元人民币。\n但现在，它们成为了“烧钞机”。\n01、巨亏44亿美元，被评为垃圾股\n嘉年华集团今年第二季度财报显示，截至3月31日，净亏损44亿美元，收入只有7亿美元，而去年同期为48亿美元。其计划在未来三个月内出售旗下至少6艘邮轮，而这些资产本来计划是在未来几年内出售。\n提前出售，既减少成本，同时获取一定资金维持现金流安全。为此，嘉年华集团不排除未来卖出更多邮轮的可能性。\n疫情的蔓延和不确定性，使得邮轮公司也在“往后退”，由此前的非自愿等待疫情缓解，改换为自愿提出延长重启时间。6月19日，代表嘉年华集团、皇家加勒比、挪威等邮轮巨头的国际邮轮行业协会宣布旗下涉及海洋领域的邮轮会员单位，自愿将从美国港口出发的邮轮业务重启时间延至9月15日。\n早在今年4月，美国疾病控制与预防中心对美国港口出发的邮轮发布了禁航令，禁航令截至日期为今年7月24日。而至今，美国疾病控制与预防中心尚未更新或延长禁航令的日期。重启在即，国际邮轮行业协会主动提出延期，已然是考虑到邮轮复航的困难和风险。\n以嘉年华集团来说，在去年12月下旬疫情开始爆发后，其旗下船只已发生几起重大疫情、隔离额死亡事件。嘉年华称，这些事件引发了“负面宣传”，可能会对品牌的吸引力产生长期影响，并减少人们在船只上度假的需求。\n嘉年华集团之前宣传在今年8月1日重启可能在技术层面上没问题，因为这与上述的禁航期至7月24日相差不大。但其CEO早在6月8日又对外表示，对8月1日复航表示怀疑。\n他们已不敢冒险，延长复航期，安全为上。\n但成本或代价高昂。国际邮轮行业协会称，邮轮业每天暂停业务对美国经济的影响大约为1.1亿美元。而挪威邮轮称公司每月大约成本为1.1亿美元-1.5亿美元，目前的现金流仅能支撑不到10个月。皇家加勒比在停航期间每月的成本为2.5亿美元-2.75亿美元，而嘉年华集团预测下半年每个月的成本高达6.5亿美元（早前更表示每月成本为10亿美元）。\n嘉年华集团表示，每月6.5亿美元费用包括现有邮轮船只运营及管理费用、承诺资本支出（不包括承诺的出口信用贷款）、利息费用，不包括乘客定金及约定的到期债务。\n现金流压力随之而来。\n今年3月底，嘉年华集团宣布将通过发行股票和公司债的方式筹集60亿美元资金，按其计划，公司将发行价值12.5亿美元的股票，30亿美元的有担保债券和17.5亿美元的可转换债券，这些债券的到期日期均为2023年。\n但嘉年华集团可能要付出高额代价。有公开报道提及，嘉年华可能为上述高级担保债券支付12%以上的票面利率。此时，嘉年华尚有投资评级，对应到这一利率之高让人“难以置信”，若真如此操作，嘉年华后续将面临很大的财务压力。\n嘉年华集团需要“救急“，也需要为接下来邮轮行业长久的不确定性或停摆，提前做出应对准备。\n他们没有明确的信心。嘉年华集团曾提到，无法预测自己的任何船只将于何时复航，也无法预测港口重新开放时间。更关键在于疫后旅行建议和限制取消后，邮轮旅游的需求在相当长时间里可能保持疲软等。\n邮轮业虽赚钱，但也是债务堆积很高的行业。最近数据显示，挪威邮轮负债75亿美元，皇家加勒比负债130亿美元，而嘉年华集团负债高达131亿美元。\n另有数据显示，2020年第二季度，嘉年华集团有76亿美元可用流动资金，其计划进一步提升未来资金的流动性，包括为未来一年即将到期的24亿美元债务再融资（其中一半债务在2020年下半年到期）。此外，嘉年华还拥有88亿美元的承诺出口信贷额度，这笔有效期到2023年的资金原计划用于为其全球邮轮交付提供支持。\n但嘉年华集团要寻求更多的融资已更不容易。\n早在今年5月。评级机构穆迪将嘉年华集团的信用评级降至垃圾级别，即“Ba1”的信用评级，是垃圾级别中的最高一级，并将其高级无担保债券评级降低一格至“Ba1”。\n穆迪表示，嘉年华的财务指标“在可预见的未来不能显示投资等级”，因为其邮轮仍处于暂停状态，任何复苏都可能缓慢。彼时，穆迪就预计上述7月24日禁令到期后，邮轮仍将继续暂停。\n不过，当时另一评级机构标准普尔将嘉年华集团的评级仍定为投资级别，但也表示考虑下调。\n不幸，最近标普将嘉年华的长期评级从BBB-级下调三级至BB-级，称该邮轮公司的信贷指标“至少在2021年底之前仍将非常疲软”。这一评级下调意味着嘉年华现处于第二高的高收益信贷评级，脱离了投资信用评级。\n标普不看好嘉年华的业务恢复乃至复苏。其认为，由于该嘉年华计划分阶段恢复正常运营，因此其在2021年的复苏将大大放缓。\n02、每天赚6000万的印钞机，变为烧钞机\n疫情高压下，已有邮轮企业选择破产。\n早在今年3月初，日本神户夜光邮轮公司对外宣布，因受疫情影响，自1月份以来，一系列订单被迫取消，已提交破产申请。当然，破产背后还有一直未能摆脱业绩不佳的缘由，疫情是最后的“重压“\n3个多月后，西班牙最大的邮轮运营商伯曼邮轮最近宣布已根据西班牙破产法提出重组申请。伯曼邮轮由皇家加勒比持股49%，在2019年已实现扭亏为盈，但疫情影响下，自称“重组是唯一的选择”。\n相比下，嘉年华集团由于家大业大在融资能力、抗御疫情能力等方面，具备更多可能性，但如上述每月“干烧”6.5亿美元，加之融资环境变差，其下半年的风险系数正在走高，不复航就要亏钱，摆在他们面前的两个主要问题：1、何时复航？2、何时复苏？\n这首先要回到邮轮旅游的赚钱模式。\n邮轮旅游也被称为“漂浮在黄金水道上的黄金产业”，基于一艘邮轮能够提供吃住行游购娱的完整旅游体验链条服务，邮轮已算是移动的旅游目的地。做大客流量、延长客人的消费链条，是营收和盈利关键。\n嘉年华集团旗下邮轮堪称行走的“印钞机”。其2019年度财报显示，其净利润约30亿美元（约合人民币210亿元），每天约赚6000万元人民币。\n同时，嘉年华全年游客达1287万人，带来141亿美元的船票收入，约占公司总收入的60%，而游客在船上的消费收入占比虽非大头，但却是盈利关键。高档餐厅、表演娱乐、奢侈品店以及赌场等二消收入，带给游客丰富的邮轮旅游体验，毛利率也高。2019年嘉年华的船上消费收入为63亿美元，成本仅有21亿美元，毛利率达67%。\n\n其中赌场是盈利关键。拉斯维加斯、澳门曾有和现有的旅游业辉煌，脱离不了赌场作用。在赌场尚未大范围合法化的情境下，邮轮赌场在公海区域的开放，成为吸引不少有着赌博好奇心或欲望的游客，以及寻求“一掷千金”狂欢豪客的利器元素。\n诸如嘉年华还会采取一个策略，即以相对优惠的类同跟团游价格，吸引更多游客登上邮轮，在长达数天的邮轮旅游中，不断通过各种体验让游客掏钱埋单。\n此外，作为移动的目的地，邮轮公司也会与一些陆地目的地旅游供应商合作开发旅游项目，或自营开发线路产品，将邮轮客流在陆地目的地进行转化，带来另一方面的营收。\n考虑到市场的扩容，客群的差异化，以及需求的多元化，产品的多元化和覆盖目的地区域的广度，成为衡量一家邮轮公司竞争力的重要因素。\n嘉年华选择不断并购扩张，疫情前已拥有嘉年华邮轮、荷美邮轮、公主邮轮等9个品牌，运营105艘邮轮，可访问全球700多个港口，覆盖地中海、加勒比海等重要目的地海域，且有环球航线，囊括平价到奢华级消费各层级链条。\n但是高密度人群长时间聚集、高封闭性乃至密闭性，成为疫情滋生及快速扩散的绝高隐患区。以嘉年华旗下公主号邮轮为例，其在发现第一例疫情病例后，在隔离的14天内，感染人数迅速攀升至621人。这种事件带给游客的恐惧感，以及事件传播等，将在邮轮既有以及潜在的消费客群中，可能留下很重的“心理阴影”，带来更为长期的消极影响。\n这也是为何在疫情尚未得以实质控制，未有良策解决疫情危机的境况下，嘉年华等邮轮巨头主动选择延长复航期的重要缘由，纵然要眼睁睁看着每天每月大量的成本损耗，他们已然难以承受类同公主邮轮的危机再现。\n近期，JP摩根在最近的一份报告里指出，预计邮轮公司要恢复100%的入住率要等到2022年。\n若参考这一预判，嘉年华集团等大小邮轮企业，要如何先活下去，坚持一年半乃至更长时间？\n一要看相关部门的政策，比如美国疾病控制与预防中心的开禁时间；二要看邮轮公司自己的策略和运营能力，何时复航，旗下哪个品牌先复航；更重要的是，如何在经济环境变差、心有畏惧的前提下说服原来的游客重启邮轮旅游，并在减少游客量以减少疫情风险的情况下，在运营成本和营收方面做好平衡；三要看邮轮公司的现金流储备和融资能力。\n中国区域会先成为邮轮巨头先觅得复苏机遇之地吗？2个多月前，嘉年华集团CEO就曾表示，随着疫情在中国境内消退，其社交活动正在恢复，率先重启市场合乎逻辑。\n但就目前中国境内疫情变化及大致走向看，上述判断依然还有着很多不确定性，至少要延期不少。大略来看，国内出境邮轮游今年内即明年上半年应该不用指望了，而这期间国内的邮轮游会有机会，但一来市场较小，二来留给它的时间也不会很多。所以，对嘉年华等邮轮公司来说，不乐观。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920025592,"gmtCreate":1584721939816,"gmtModify":1704355872897,"author":{"id":"3462110539633696","authorId":"3462110539633696","name":"董盛任","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e85224c9e22a913e14edd0f48f65f3d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3462110539633696","idStr":"3462110539633696"},"the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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n富士康-吉利和法拉第未来讨论电动车的合作事宜\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-20 10:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据彭博报道，鸿海董事长刘扬伟表示，富士康-吉利、FARADAY FUTURE讨论电动车的合作。富士康寻求购买一座8英寸晶圆厂，芯片短缺对富士康客户的影响有限。</p><p>谈到今年鸿海推动的MIH电动车平台联盟进展，刘扬伟表示，截至今天为止，MIH电动车平台联盟有736家全球厂商加入，预计3月MIH联盟将召开会员大会，今年推动以MIH平台为基础的造车工程，预估今年第四季度会有1款电动巴士、以及2款乘用车车款发布。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8dc93247b924779ebd1578e98a8e9e1","relate_stocks":{"00175":"吉利汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121210102","content_text":"据彭博报道，鸿海董事长刘扬伟表示，富士康-吉利、FARADAY FUTURE讨论电动车的合作。富士康寻求购买一座8英寸晶圆厂，芯片短缺对富士康客户的影响有限。谈到今年鸿海推动的MIH电动车平台联盟进展，刘扬伟表示，截至今天为止，MIH电动车平台联盟有736家全球厂商加入，预计3月MIH联盟将召开会员大会，今年推动以MIH平台为基础的造车工程，预估今年第四季度会有1款电动巴士、以及2款乘用车车款发布。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":915809147,"gmtCreate":1580754516389,"gmtModify":1704342216720,"author":{"id":"3462110539633696","authorId":"3462110539633696","name":"董盛任","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e85224c9e22a913e14edd0f48f65f3d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3462110539633696","authorIdStr":"3462110539633696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;止盈了，5天涨40%属实有点过分了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;止盈了，5天涨40%属实有点过分了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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