股神1975在2021的个人主页 - 老虎社区

股神1975在2021

股神1975在2021

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股神1975在2021

04-17 22:34

臭不要脸的垃圾，还什么钢铁侠。我早就看透他

不服法院判决，特斯拉将再次就马斯克560亿美元薪酬举行股东投票

股神1975在2021

04-17 22:33

臭不要脸

Tesla Asks Investors to Approve Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Again

股神1975在2021

03-17

华为？？？？哈哈哈哈，一年后死都不知

管中窥豹！华为登顶第一，小米跌出前五，国产手机何去何从？

股神1975在2021

2023-12-27

写这文章大概是**了吧哈哈

抱歉，原内容已删除

股神1975在2021

2021-03-24

$TUI AG(TUI.UK)$股神来也

股神1975在2021

2021-02-08

$AMC院线(AMC)$上周错过了1000万。预计目标位十年内20。却是一周就到了。

股神1975在2021

2021-01-27

$游戏驿站(GME)$美国SEC和FBI宣布调查GME股票操纵案件。

股神1975在2021

2020-09-12

$西方石油(OXY)$股神进场抄底，目标位45。

股神1975在2021

2020-08-10

$美国航空(AAL)$不到30坚决不出仓！疫苗10月份获批

股神1975在2021

2020-08-08

作者大更吃饱了吧

美国航空业：我真的飞不动了

股神1975在2021

2020-05-18

$美国航空(AAL)$空头快平

股神1975在2021

2020-05-07

哈哈，迷信股神不如信自己

巴菲特，老了？

股神1975在2021

2020-05-04

$美国航空(AAL)$巴菲特也配叫股神？纯**

股神1975在2021

2020-02-27

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$一直做空一直爽，哈哈哈

股神1975在2021

2020-02-19

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$打草搂兔子。有机会就捞，在10美分等你哦

股神1975在2021

2020-02-19

逮机会就空你个哈比，捞点零花钱。长期看空1美分。

股神1975在2021

2020-02-18

**来劲编

瑞幸的军刀，星巴克的旗杆

股神1975在2021

2020-02-10

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$今天在APP观察瑞幸门店，湖北自然全部歇业。然后南京、上海、北京，只开了1-2家偏远区的店，亏死了吧，陆骗子和钱骗子，钱都不够你们烧的，哈哈哈哈哈

股神1975在2021

2020-02-10

$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$没量了，庄家要割腕逃跑了

股神1975在2021

2020-02-05

做B梦

香橼资本：利空消息过后瑞幸咖啡股价或将翻番

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>产品的研究。马斯克现在拥有该公司约13%的股份。</p><p></p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>不服法院判决，特斯拉将再次就马斯克560亿美元薪酬举行股东投票</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n不服法院判决，特斯拉将再次就马斯克560亿美元薪酬举行股东投票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-17 20:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1104080.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特斯拉将再次让股东就首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的薪酬方案进行投票，此前特拉华州一家法院宣布2018年特斯拉为马斯克安排的560亿美元奖金无效。特斯拉在周三发布的代理文件中还表示，将就将公司注册地从特拉华州迁至德克萨斯州进行投票。这家电动汽车制造商将于6月13日召开年度股东大会。特斯拉董事长罗宾·丹霍尔姆批评了特拉华州衡平法院1月份的裁决，她表示，这相当于对批准马斯克薪酬的股东进行事后猜测。美国特拉华州...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1104080.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e3988a75d33e2b4f95370655c056098","relate_stocks":{"LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) 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INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1104080.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2428311262","content_text":"特斯拉将再次让股东就首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的薪酬方案进行投票，此前特拉华州一家法院宣布2018年特斯拉为马斯克安排的560亿美元奖金无效。特斯拉在周三发布的代理文件中还表示，将就将公司注册地从特拉华州迁至德克萨斯州进行投票。这家电动汽车制造商将于6月13日召开年度股东大会。特斯拉董事长罗宾·丹霍尔姆批评了特拉华州衡平法院1月份的裁决，她表示，这相当于对批准马斯克薪酬的股东进行事后猜测。美国特拉华州衡平法院法官凯瑟琳·麦考密克将该公司的董事形容为“傲慢主人的懒散仆人”，并称他们没有考虑投资者的最大利益。丹霍尔姆在文件中表示：“由于特拉华州法院对你们的决定提出了质疑，埃隆在过去六年中为特斯拉所做的帮助公司实现显著增长和股东价值的工作没有得到任何报酬。”就马斯克薪酬问题起诉特斯拉的股东批评其薪酬过高且不透明。经营着六家公司的马斯克今年早些时候表示，除非他拥有特斯拉25%的股份，否则他更愿意在其他地方从事人工智能和机器人产品的研究。马斯克现在拥有该公司约13%的股份。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3560418186602071","authorId":"3560418186602071","name":"杨大逍遥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf1dddf2200bde0bbfcaedaadea959","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"content":"你以为世界首富是做慈善能上的吗？以前他可能是用心追梦吧。从带货狗狗币开始就已经是个渣渣了","text":"你以为世界首富是做慈善能上的吗？以前他可能是用心追梦吧。从带货狗狗币开始就已经是个渣渣了","html":"你以为世界首富是做慈善能上的吗？以前他可能是用心追梦吧。从带货狗狗币开始就已经是个渣渣了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296250601681112,"gmtCreate":1713364434699,"gmtModify":1713364948302,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"臭不要脸","listText":"臭不要脸","text":"臭不要脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296250601681112","repostId":"1162483439","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162483439","pubTimestamp":1713350580,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162483439?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-17 18:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Asks Investors to Approve Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162483439","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Tesla Inc. will have shareholders vote again on its massive compensation package for Elon Musk after a Delaware court voided a $56 billion award arranged for the chief executive officer in 2018.In its proxy filing issued Wednesday, Tesla also said it will call a vote on moving the company’s state of incorporation to Texas, from Delaware. The electric-car maker will hold its annual meeting on June 13.","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Company also calls vote on moving incorporation to Texas</p></li><li><p>Tesla chair criticizes Delaware court that voided CEO’s award</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5299b8b19f42512e141b02f56b108a3\" alt=\"Elon Musk\" title=\"Elon Musk\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"/><span>Elon Musk</span></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tesla Inc. will have shareholders vote again on its compensation package for Elon Musk after a Delaware court voided the $56 billion award arranged for the chief executive officer in 2018.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In its proxy filing issued Wednesday, Tesla also said it will call a vote on moving the company’s state of incorporation to Texas from Delaware. The electric-car maker will convene its annual meeting on June 13.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm criticized the Delaware Chancery Court’s January decision, writing in the proxy that it amounted to second-guessing shareholders who had approved Musk’s compensation. Chief Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick described the company’s directors as “supine servants of an overweening master” and said they hadn’t looked out for the best interests of investors.</p><p>“Because the Delaware Court second-guessed your decision, Elon has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla for the past six years that has helped to generate significant growth and stockholder value,” Denholm wrote.</p><p>The shareholder who sued Tesla over the CEO’s compensation criticized it as excessive and opaque. Musk, who runs six companies, said early this year he preferred to work on artificial intelligence and robotics products elsewhere unless he owns a 25% stake in Tesla. He now owns about 13% of the company.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Tesla shares rose 1.1% as of 7 a.m. New York time, before the start of regular trading. The stock tumbled 37% this year through Tuesday’s close.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Asks Investors to Approve Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Asks Investors to Approve Musk’s $56 Billion Pay Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-17 18:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/tesla-asks-shareholders-to-re-ratify-musk-s-56-billion-payout><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Company also calls vote on moving incorporation to TexasTesla chair criticizes Delaware court that voided CEO’s awardElon MuskTesla Inc. will have shareholders vote again on its compensation package ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/tesla-asks-shareholders-to-re-ratify-musk-s-56-billion-payout\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/tesla-asks-shareholders-to-re-ratify-musk-s-56-billion-payout","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162483439","content_text":"Company also calls vote on moving incorporation to TexasTesla chair criticizes Delaware court that voided CEO’s awardElon MuskTesla Inc. will have shareholders vote again on its compensation package for Elon Musk after a Delaware court voided the $56 billion award arranged for the chief executive officer in 2018.In its proxy filing issued Wednesday, Tesla also said it will call a vote on moving the company’s state of incorporation to Texas from Delaware. The electric-car maker will convene its annual meeting on June 13.Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm criticized the Delaware Chancery Court’s January decision, writing in the proxy that it amounted to second-guessing shareholders who had approved Musk’s compensation. Chief Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick described the company’s directors as “supine servants of an overweening master” and said they hadn’t looked out for the best interests of investors.“Because the Delaware Court second-guessed your decision, Elon has not been paid for any of his work for Tesla for the past six years that has helped to generate significant growth and stockholder value,” Denholm wrote.The shareholder who sued Tesla over the CEO’s compensation criticized it as excessive and opaque. Musk, who runs six companies, said early this year he preferred to work on artificial intelligence and robotics products elsewhere unless he owns a 25% stake in Tesla. He now owns about 13% of the company.Tesla shares rose 1.1% as of 7 a.m. New York time, before the start of regular trading. The stock tumbled 37% this year through Tuesday’s close.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":285414496813352,"gmtCreate":1710686982293,"gmtModify":1710686984231,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"华为？？？？哈哈哈哈，一年后死都不知","listText":"华为？？？？哈哈哈哈，一年后死都不知","text":"华为？？？？哈哈哈哈，一年后死都不知","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285414496813352","repostId":"2419604881","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2419604881","pubTimestamp":1710546145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2419604881?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-16 07:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"管中窥豹！华为登顶第一，小米跌出前五，国产手机何去何从？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2419604881","media":"叽歪数码VVV","summary":"有博主晒出了3月4日-3月10日的国内智能手机销量数据。华为登顶，其余国产手机在后面排队。小米跌出前五，这个预期呢，我觉得是可以接受的。那么，最终就会产生一个非常残酷的现实，除了华为之外的国产手机厂商，必须想办法实现国内国外双线扩展的战略。那些主要依赖国内市场的品牌，如果遭受华为的冲击太大，自己又没有实力去发展海外市场，那么这个冲击的力度甚至比跌出国内前五还要严重。","content":"<html><body><p>有博主晒出了3月4日-3月10日的国内智能手机销量数据。虽然只是一周的数据，却可以实现管中窥豹的效果。我个人觉得，这数据实际非常符合今年的整体走向。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>华为登顶，其余国产手机在后面排队。但我更想强调一个事实，那就是前6名之间的差距是越来越小了，而且我相信呢，接下来除了华为之外，其他几家的差距也不会再次扩大。当厂商之间的竞争变得势均力敌，那么竞争就会更加激烈。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>蓝厂开始反击。蓝厂呢，去年的整体表现并不太好，但是在国内还是稳定在前三。今年开始蓝厂整体来说是有反弹的。蓝厂目前最大的问题在于海外市场表现相较于小米OPPO来说更疲软，相对比之下，vivo在东南亚市场的表现不算太好，在拉美、印度以及中东市场更需要持续投入。</p><p>黑厂目前就是需要破解高端，国内市场表现其实也还可以，海外市场实际也在复苏了，尤其是在解决了跟<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>的专利问题之后，oppo可以迅速恢复它在欧洲市场的销售，在欧洲市场实现重新大幅度增长。</p><p>小米跌出前五，这个预期呢，我觉得是可以接受的。因为你看小米的市场份额，实际上是比他之前在前5名里面还多的。虽然这只是一周的数据，但是我也愿意相信，接下来一年里面小米可能真的会跌出第五（当然肯定也不排除有其他家跌的更惨，不排除其他品牌跌出第五）。还有人说，这里面小米没有把红米跟小米分开，这个没分开我也没办法，但是如果你去看数据会发现，小米绝对是除了华为之外，高端做的最好的国产品牌了。因此，小米真正要守住的是来自于中低端的市场，红米需要面临真我、一加等品牌的竞争。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>最后，想再次提醒大家2个事实。第一，华为目前回归，但是依旧是比较缺乏中低端，为什么说是比较缺乏呢？因为华为目前还没有在低端上用它的麒麟芯片，像中端机型的华为nova系列的价格还是比较贵，一旦解决了这两个问题，那么华为会更猛，会拉开跟友商的差距，因为中低端市场才是整个智能手机的基本盘，它能够占据整个智能手机市场70%左右的市场，尤其是对于线下市场来说，更需要这些中低端机型来走量。</p><p>第二，从此前我们所梳理的海外智能手机市场的整体表现来看，传音目前已经具备了跟其他手机品牌争夺世界前五甚至前四的实力。传音不仅在非洲市场有着出色的表现，占据半壁江山，更加重要的是他在东南亚、拉美、中东等市场迅速崛起，尤其是东南亚这个市场，一直被认为是其他国产手机品牌的海外市场大本营，传音的表现非常迅猛，已经达到了第二的水平。传音目前所需要解决的是在欧洲市场以及印度市场上没有太大作为的问题，如果能够在这个两个市场有所建树，那么传音将会直接对其他国产品牌造成较大威胁。</p><p>也就是说，国产手机厂商们不仅需要面临着国内市场来自华为的竞争压力，要面临着来自友商之间势均力敌的竞争，即便是在海外市场，也需要面临着像传音这种迅猛突起的黑马。</p><p>那么，最终就会产生一个非常残酷的现实，除了华为之外的国产手机厂商，必须想办法实现国内国外双线扩展的战略。那些主要依赖国内市场的品牌，如果遭受华为的冲击太大，自己又没有实力去发展海外市场，那么这个冲击的力度甚至比跌出国内前五还要严重。而那些主要依赖海外市场的品牌，传音实际上才是他们的最大威胁，即便在国内市场需要面临来自华为的冲击，但是这是一种除了华为之外，其他手机厂商都必须遭受的压力，你可以看到其他手机厂商目前的差距已经是越来越小了，换句话说，这是一种平等的普降，当华为迅速崛起的时候，其他手机品牌势必会下降，只是看你如何防御将损失尽量降低。</p><p>例如在华为之外的手机厂商，此前某家市场份额曾达到20%左右，但如今肯定是再也回不到这一数据了，接下来也只能是持续下滑，在几乎没有海外市场的现阶段，如果被华为重新拿回部分市场份额，那对于自己是更毁灭性的打击，甚至比掉出国内前五更加严重。</p><p><img src=\"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABAQMAAAAl21bKAAAAA1BMVEXy8vJkA4prAAAACklEQVQI12NgAAAAAgAB4iG8MwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\"/></p><p>一句话：要么你觉得自己能够在国内市场守住来自华为的冲击，要么你必须到海外市场找到一片<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301277\">新天地</a>，如果这两样你做不到其中的一样，那留给友商的时间就不多了。</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>管中窥豹！华为登顶第一，小米跌出前五，国产手机何去何从？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n管中窥豹！华为登顶第一，小米跌出前五，国产手机何去何从？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-16 07:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8XzWDGF5ln5><strong>叽歪数码VVV</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>有博主晒出了3月4日-3月10日的国内智能手机销量数据。虽然只是一周的数据，却可以实现管中窥豹的效果。我个人觉得，这数据实际非常符合今年的整体走向。华为登顶，其余国产手机在后面排队。但我更想强调一个事实，那就是前6名之间的差距是越来越小了，而且我相信呢，接下来除了华为之外，其他几家的差距也不会再次扩大。当厂商之间的竞争变得势均力敌，那么竞争就会更加激烈。蓝厂开始反击。蓝厂呢，去年的整体表现并不太好...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8XzWDGF5ln5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","BK1502":"双十一","LU1770034418.SGD":"ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK1523":"武汉本地概念股","BK1575":"同股不同权","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1607":"新IT概念","BK1506":"5G概念","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","01810":"小米集团-W","BK1193":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK1589":"北水核心资产","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","XIACY":"小米集团ADR"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8XzWDGF5ln5","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2419604881","content_text":"有博主晒出了3月4日-3月10日的国内智能手机销量数据。虽然只是一周的数据，却可以实现管中窥豹的效果。我个人觉得，这数据实际非常符合今年的整体走向。华为登顶，其余国产手机在后面排队。但我更想强调一个事实，那就是前6名之间的差距是越来越小了，而且我相信呢，接下来除了华为之外，其他几家的差距也不会再次扩大。当厂商之间的竞争变得势均力敌，那么竞争就会更加激烈。蓝厂开始反击。蓝厂呢，去年的整体表现并不太好，但是在国内还是稳定在前三。今年开始蓝厂整体来说是有反弹的。蓝厂目前最大的问题在于海外市场表现相较于小米OPPO来说更疲软，相对比之下，vivo在东南亚市场的表现不算太好，在拉美、印度以及中东市场更需要持续投入。黑厂目前就是需要破解高端，国内市场表现其实也还可以，海外市场实际也在复苏了，尤其是在解决了跟诺基亚的专利问题之后，oppo可以迅速恢复它在欧洲市场的销售，在欧洲市场实现重新大幅度增长。小米跌出前五，这个预期呢，我觉得是可以接受的。因为你看小米的市场份额，实际上是比他之前在前5名里面还多的。虽然这只是一周的数据，但是我也愿意相信，接下来一年里面小米可能真的会跌出第五（当然肯定也不排除有其他家跌的更惨，不排除其他品牌跌出第五）。还有人说，这里面小米没有把红米跟小米分开，这个没分开我也没办法，但是如果你去看数据会发现，小米绝对是除了华为之外，高端做的最好的国产品牌了。因此，小米真正要守住的是来自于中低端的市场，红米需要面临真我、一加等品牌的竞争。最后，想再次提醒大家2个事实。第一，华为目前回归，但是依旧是比较缺乏中低端，为什么说是比较缺乏呢？因为华为目前还没有在低端上用它的麒麟芯片，像中端机型的华为nova系列的价格还是比较贵，一旦解决了这两个问题，那么华为会更猛，会拉开跟友商的差距，因为中低端市场才是整个智能手机的基本盘，它能够占据整个智能手机市场70%左右的市场，尤其是对于线下市场来说，更需要这些中低端机型来走量。第二，从此前我们所梳理的海外智能手机市场的整体表现来看，传音目前已经具备了跟其他手机品牌争夺世界前五甚至前四的实力。传音不仅在非洲市场有着出色的表现，占据半壁江山，更加重要的是他在东南亚、拉美、中东等市场迅速崛起，尤其是东南亚这个市场，一直被认为是其他国产手机品牌的海外市场大本营，传音的表现非常迅猛，已经达到了第二的水平。传音目前所需要解决的是在欧洲市场以及印度市场上没有太大作为的问题，如果能够在这个两个市场有所建树，那么传音将会直接对其他国产品牌造成较大威胁。也就是说，国产手机厂商们不仅需要面临着国内市场来自华为的竞争压力，要面临着来自友商之间势均力敌的竞争，即便是在海外市场，也需要面临着像传音这种迅猛突起的黑马。那么，最终就会产生一个非常残酷的现实，除了华为之外的国产手机厂商，必须想办法实现国内国外双线扩展的战略。那些主要依赖国内市场的品牌，如果遭受华为的冲击太大，自己又没有实力去发展海外市场，那么这个冲击的力度甚至比跌出国内前五还要严重。而那些主要依赖海外市场的品牌，传音实际上才是他们的最大威胁，即便在国内市场需要面临来自华为的冲击，但是这是一种除了华为之外，其他手机厂商都必须遭受的压力，你可以看到其他手机厂商目前的差距已经是越来越小了，换句话说，这是一种平等的普降，当华为迅速崛起的时候，其他手机品牌势必会下降，只是看你如何防御将损失尽量降低。例如在华为之外的手机厂商，此前某家市场份额曾达到20%左右，但如今肯定是再也回不到这一数据了，接下来也只能是持续下滑，在几乎没有海外市场的现阶段，如果被华为重新拿回部分市场份额，那对于自己是更毁灭性的打击，甚至比掉出国内前五更加严重。一句话：要么你觉得自己能够在国内市场守住来自华为的冲击，要么你必须到海外市场找到一片新天地，如果这两样你做不到其中的一样，那留给友商的时间就不多了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":84,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":256501011747128,"gmtCreate":1703641543102,"gmtModify":1703641544623,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写这文章大概是**了吧哈哈","listText":"写这文章大概是**了吧哈哈","text":"写这文章大概是**了吧哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256501011747128","repostId":"2394214660","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351168270,"gmtCreate":1616575945890,"gmtModify":1616575945890,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>美国SEC和FBI宣布调查GME股票操纵案件。","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$美国SEC和FBI宣布调查GME股票操纵案件。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/313406091","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976764480,"gmtCreate":1599864598940,"gmtModify":1703819950416,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>股神进场抄底，目标位45。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a>股神进场抄底，目标位45。","text":"$西方石油(OXY)$股神进场抄底，目标位45。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68fa2c7cdf6cbfa299e9c6f4047e7f1a","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976764480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944547950,"gmtCreate":1597069182070,"gmtModify":1704214277721,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>不到30坚决不出仓！疫苗10月份获批","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>不到30坚决不出仓！疫苗10月份获批","text":"$美国航空(AAL)$不到30坚决不出仓！疫苗10月份获批","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944547950","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":944826277,"gmtCreate":1596827101999,"gmtModify":1704213841777,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"作者大更吃饱了吧","listText":"作者大更吃饱了吧","text":"作者大更吃饱了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/944826277","repostId":"1170742161","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1170742161","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1596808694,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170742161?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-07 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国航空业：我真的飞不动了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170742161","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一打开微博，被热搜吸引了眼球。\n\n资料来源：微博\n美东时间8月6日，美国国务院宣布解除对本国公民的“第四级全球旅行警告”。\n上述这一警告自今年3月19日发出，旨在基于疫情影响，建议美国公民避免一切国际","content":"<p>一打开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>，被热搜吸引了眼球。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f621838ab05793f23fcf7ae6b9abaa5\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"942\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p>美东时间8月6日，<b>美国国务院宣布解除对本国公民的“第四级全球旅行警告”。</b></p>\n<p>上述这一警告自今年3月19日发出，旨在基于疫情影响，建议美国公民避免一切国际旅行。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5ea08c5d86fe2330df620a0220834a9\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"192\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：官网公告</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鉴于一些国家的卫生和安全状况正在改善，而其他国家可能正在恶化”，国务院恢复以前实施的按具体国家和地区给出旅行建议的制度。”——美国国务院\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c87ba67d35490005454dfceda7300ad\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"184\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：推特</p>\n<p>受此消息影响，隔夜美股航空股短线上扬，有所提振。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/762dace0e34f3d048871acdc668a6b84\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"289\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>然而，美国这一“此一时彼一时”的做法让人摸不着头脑，遭到网友诸多吐槽。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a05abab20fec93d6ecf762498e1f9fc\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"990\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p>毕竟，进入下半年，新冠疫情依旧面临严峻挑战，<b>而美国作为疫情发生的“主要震中”继续反复爆发，相关经济表现持续低迷，人们消费信心连连下降，哪有开始说走就走的旅行一说。</b></p>\n<p>在此之下，早已陷入亏损泥潭的航空业也只怕是越陷越深了。</p>\n<p><b>“不受欢迎”的美国人</b></p>\n<p><b>新冠疫情大流行的阴影依旧笼罩在全球上空。</b></p>\n<p>根据最新数据显示，截至目前，全球新冠肺炎确诊病例超过1922万例，累计死亡超过71万例，目前美国、巴西和印度的确诊病例数约占全球确诊数的一半，形势严峻。其中，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊超过503万例，累计死亡超过16万例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59a401d2b3fadbd7dd7ac6913f3e3820\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"990\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：微博</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在过去的七天里，一个严峻的新情况出现了：在美国，每80秒就有一人死于新冠病毒\"——美国全国广播公司\n</blockquote>\n<p>时至今日，美国可以说是“自食恶果”，毕竟在疫情爆发初期，对疫情的轻视使得其未能有效进行防控，一错再错，错过了控制疫情蔓延的最佳拐点。</p>\n<p><b>而这一形势或许继续不受控。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n “在美国波士顿、芝加哥、底特律和华盛顿等城市，新冠病毒阳性比例还在缓慢上升，这预示着“未来不妙”。”——美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长福奇\n</blockquote>\n<p>在这么一个混乱的疫情时期，美国选择取消全球旅行着实是“迷惑行为”，毕竟目前来说，<b>目前全世界绝大多数国家与地区对此并不乐见，本身也不接受美国游客入境。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9049ed4814acf96bb30840f5efafc7d5\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"424\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p><i>中国继续暂停持有效中国签证、居留许可的外国人入境；</i></p>\n<p><i>加拿大、墨西哥等地对来自美国的非必要旅行限制至少持续到8月下旬；</i></p>\n<p><i>欧盟继续禁止美国游客入境，英国要求入境必须隔离14天；</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“就算美国解除了全球旅行警告，各地都没有欢迎美国旅行者”。——《国会山报》</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>因此，就外部环境而言，这一取消全球旅行警告对美国人来说，可谓是“旅游了个寂寞”，基本无处可游。</p>\n<p><b>美国经济“自身难保”</b></p>\n<p>而除了外部的限制之外，<b>也许美国人自身也并没有什么闲情逸致去旅游。</b></p>\n<p>在疫情还未平复之际，美国急不可待重启经济，使得疫情得到进一步激化，反而致使经济前景不确定性加重，尤其是在美联储的无限量放水之后，实体经济和金融体系之间的结构性矛盾进一步凸显。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “录得新增就业仅仅为16.7万人，远低于预期（150万人），前值从236.9万大幅上修至增加431.4万人。”——最新美国7月ADP就业报告\n</blockquote>\n<p>当美股的泡沫虚高、美元指数持续下挫、政府债务风险激增、失业率反弹等一系列痛症避无可避之时，<b>人们对美国经济前景趋于悲观，避险情绪自然占据上风</b>。</p>\n<p>美元指数情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73d735836a273185eb3dfaf97370034\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"375\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>10年期美债收益率情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0abfcd0d86d47a939ca4571aabba466d\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"343\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>这也就是为什么金价居高不下，频创记录的原因，毕竟美国经济和疫情一样，都具有较大的不确定性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e6770c194fbc3452eafb823bc01a2\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"292\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<blockquote>\n “这种对短期前景的不确定性，对经济复苏和消费者支出来说都不是好兆头。”——美国经济咨商会经济指标高级主管Lynn Franco\n</blockquote>\n<p>而在这样的情绪支配之下，市场信心和投资下滑也是有目共睹的，此时吃饱穿暖按时交房租才是真理。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “7月美国消费者信心指数从6月的78.1下跌到72.5，远低于去年同期（98.4）....7月美国消费者期待指数从6月的72.3下降到65.9。”——美国商务部\n</blockquote>\n<p>要知道一般来说，个人消费支出约占美国经济比重的七成，是促进美国经济增长的重要助力，而从上述可以看出，在短期内，美国消费者支出很难恢复正常水平，这也意味着：<b>即便是解除所谓的“全球旅行禁令”，人们也可能不会买账，只会更加握紧手中的钱袋子，那么与其直接相关的“嗷嗷待哺”的航空业也只能继续挣扎求生。</b></p>\n<p><b>提振航空业“有心无力”</b></p>\n<p>疫情打击了各行各业的发展势头，其中，旅游业自然首当其冲，拖着本就显出疲态的航空业一同陷入低谷。</p>\n<p>美国联邦运输安全管理局检查点安检人数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae77ad2dcfd91b0ecb4ec772367c6dc2\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"487\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：TSA</p>\n<p>在防控期间，<b>没有客流量的航空公司如同失去梦想的咸鱼，巨亏成为了常态</b>。</p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>公司二季度营收16亿美元，同比下降86.4%，净亏损达到20.67亿美元；</i></p>\n<p><i>美国联合航空公司二季度营收为14.75亿美元，仅为去年同期的零头（114.02亿美元）；二季度净亏损为16.27亿美元，由盈转亏（去年同期盈利10.52亿美元）；</i></p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>二季度营业收入14.68亿美元，同比下跌88.29%；净亏损57.17亿美元，同比下降496.19%，为2008年以来最大亏损数额；</i></p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>公司二季度营收略高于10亿美元，同比下降近83%，净亏损9.15亿美元，盈转亏（去年同期盈利7.41亿美元）...</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n “今年二季度，四大航企（美联航、达美航空、美国航空和西南航空）营收累计55亿美元，运营开支达到159亿美元，净亏损近120亿美元，相当于平均每天就要亏掉1亿美元。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>航空公司盈利框架图</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18d63d717dc1e4219d9f41724b46641\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"496\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：平安证券</p>\n<p>要知道，航空业具有重资产、高负债等属性，<b>运行成本压力一直不容忽视</b>，而这在疫情面前已不堪一击，面对骤减的客座率，于是我们看到了它们的“不得已而为之”，即收缩成本、大额裁员等自救之举。而随着在价值320亿美元的航空业援助计划支持逐渐减弱，<b>9月底之后，一旦没有新的政府援助，美国航空业或加重这一恶性循环。</b></p>\n<p>美国国内航班机票销售的下降情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346a8a508f07a5045c053202d8f1bf76\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"541\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：DDS</p>\n<p>购买国际机票的乘客数量的下降情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf8db9dcee59763e3f7222356579a16\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"612\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：DDS</p>\n<blockquote>\n “目前的环境比我们想象的更加不可预测，更加不稳定。”——美国航空公司首席执行官道格·帕克\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国航空WOLF STREET指数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2b4c9cb09cd9212187fb74e6c905bd\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"577\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：YCharts</p>\n<p>对此，巴菲特已有先见之明，“忍痛割爱”，纷纷清空了美国四大航的股票，总计数十亿美元。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“受新冠疫情影响，航空业已发生根本变化，三四年内航空客运人数都不会恢复到去年水平。”——巴菲特</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>今年以来，美联航股价已累计下跌超60%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e75ff6dd410a2e914a9407f2d8c46ea\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"293\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>达美航空累计下跌超53%，美国航空累计下跌超54%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8923fb227b7e32160cbd59407b69a3\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"291\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>而在此颓靡之象下，“取消全球旅行警告”这一举措或只是安抚人心的一纸空谈，隔夜美股的短线拉升就如同夏日绽放的烟火，短暂灿烂过后剩下喘息求生的虚无。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>新冠大流行这一卫生事件还未真正解决之时，<b>美国这一取消全球旅行的警告实在有些“鸡肋”</b>，毕竟疫情已重创经济，抑制消费，再加上多国的入境限制，人们难以心大的去出行。因此，在很大程度上，这一句“口嗨”也许只是特朗普为获取连任而提振市场信心，促消费的小手段之一。</p>\n<p>而在此情形之下，美国航空业的处境就显得较为卑微了，这一疫情重灾区所面临的经营困局大概率在中长期内无法解除，<b>漫漫复苏之路道阻且艰。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国航空业：我真的飞不动了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-07 21:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>一打开<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>，被热搜吸引了眼球。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f621838ab05793f23fcf7ae6b9abaa5\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"942\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p>美东时间8月6日，<b>美国国务院宣布解除对本国公民的“第四级全球旅行警告”。</b></p>\n<p>上述这一警告自今年3月19日发出，旨在基于疫情影响，建议美国公民避免一切国际旅行。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5ea08c5d86fe2330df620a0220834a9\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"192\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：官网公告</p>\n<blockquote>\n “鉴于一些国家的卫生和安全状况正在改善，而其他国家可能正在恶化”，国务院恢复以前实施的按具体国家和地区给出旅行建议的制度。”——美国国务院\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c87ba67d35490005454dfceda7300ad\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"184\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：推特</p>\n<p>受此消息影响，隔夜美股航空股短线上扬，有所提振。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/762dace0e34f3d048871acdc668a6b84\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"289\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>然而，美国这一“此一时彼一时”的做法让人摸不着头脑，遭到网友诸多吐槽。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a05abab20fec93d6ecf762498e1f9fc\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"990\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p>毕竟，进入下半年，新冠疫情依旧面临严峻挑战，<b>而美国作为疫情发生的“主要震中”继续反复爆发，相关经济表现持续低迷，人们消费信心连连下降，哪有开始说走就走的旅行一说。</b></p>\n<p>在此之下，早已陷入亏损泥潭的航空业也只怕是越陷越深了。</p>\n<p><b>“不受欢迎”的美国人</b></p>\n<p><b>新冠疫情大流行的阴影依旧笼罩在全球上空。</b></p>\n<p>根据最新数据显示，截至目前，全球新冠肺炎确诊病例超过1922万例，累计死亡超过71万例，目前美国、巴西和印度的确诊病例数约占全球确诊数的一半，形势严峻。其中，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊超过503万例，累计死亡超过16万例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59a401d2b3fadbd7dd7ac6913f3e3820\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"990\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：微博</p>\n<blockquote>\n “在过去的七天里，一个严峻的新情况出现了：在美国，每80秒就有一人死于新冠病毒\"——美国全国广播公司\n</blockquote>\n<p>时至今日，美国可以说是“自食恶果”，毕竟在疫情爆发初期，对疫情的轻视使得其未能有效进行防控，一错再错，错过了控制疫情蔓延的最佳拐点。</p>\n<p><b>而这一形势或许继续不受控。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n “在美国波士顿、芝加哥、底特律和华盛顿等城市，新冠病毒阳性比例还在缓慢上升，这预示着“未来不妙”。”——美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长福奇\n</blockquote>\n<p>在这么一个混乱的疫情时期，美国选择取消全球旅行着实是“迷惑行为”，毕竟目前来说，<b>目前全世界绝大多数国家与地区对此并不乐见，本身也不接受美国游客入境。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9049ed4814acf96bb30840f5efafc7d5\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"424\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：微博</p>\n<p><i>中国继续暂停持有效中国签证、居留许可的外国人入境；</i></p>\n<p><i>加拿大、墨西哥等地对来自美国的非必要旅行限制至少持续到8月下旬；</i></p>\n<p><i>欧盟继续禁止美国游客入境，英国要求入境必须隔离14天；</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“就算美国解除了全球旅行警告，各地都没有欢迎美国旅行者”。——《国会山报》</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>因此，就外部环境而言，这一取消全球旅行警告对美国人来说，可谓是“旅游了个寂寞”，基本无处可游。</p>\n<p><b>美国经济“自身难保”</b></p>\n<p>而除了外部的限制之外，<b>也许美国人自身也并没有什么闲情逸致去旅游。</b></p>\n<p>在疫情还未平复之际，美国急不可待重启经济，使得疫情得到进一步激化，反而致使经济前景不确定性加重，尤其是在美联储的无限量放水之后，实体经济和金融体系之间的结构性矛盾进一步凸显。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “录得新增就业仅仅为16.7万人，远低于预期（150万人），前值从236.9万大幅上修至增加431.4万人。”——最新美国7月ADP就业报告\n</blockquote>\n<p>当美股的泡沫虚高、美元指数持续下挫、政府债务风险激增、失业率反弹等一系列痛症避无可避之时，<b>人们对美国经济前景趋于悲观，避险情绪自然占据上风</b>。</p>\n<p>美元指数情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73d735836a273185eb3dfaf97370034\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"375\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>10年期美债收益率情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0abfcd0d86d47a939ca4571aabba466d\" tg-width=\"657\" tg-height=\"343\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>这也就是为什么金价居高不下，频创记录的原因，毕竟美国经济和疫情一样，都具有较大的不确定性。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0e6770c194fbc3452eafb823bc01a2\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"292\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<blockquote>\n “这种对短期前景的不确定性，对经济复苏和消费者支出来说都不是好兆头。”——美国经济咨商会经济指标高级主管Lynn Franco\n</blockquote>\n<p>而在这样的情绪支配之下，市场信心和投资下滑也是有目共睹的，此时吃饱穿暖按时交房租才是真理。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “7月美国消费者信心指数从6月的78.1下跌到72.5，远低于去年同期（98.4）....7月美国消费者期待指数从6月的72.3下降到65.9。”——美国商务部\n</blockquote>\n<p>要知道一般来说，个人消费支出约占美国经济比重的七成，是促进美国经济增长的重要助力，而从上述可以看出，在短期内，美国消费者支出很难恢复正常水平，这也意味着：<b>即便是解除所谓的“全球旅行禁令”，人们也可能不会买账，只会更加握紧手中的钱袋子，那么与其直接相关的“嗷嗷待哺”的航空业也只能继续挣扎求生。</b></p>\n<p><b>提振航空业“有心无力”</b></p>\n<p>疫情打击了各行各业的发展势头，其中，旅游业自然首当其冲，拖着本就显出疲态的航空业一同陷入低谷。</p>\n<p>美国联邦运输安全管理局检查点安检人数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae77ad2dcfd91b0ecb4ec772367c6dc2\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"487\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：TSA</p>\n<p>在防控期间，<b>没有客流量的航空公司如同失去梦想的咸鱼，巨亏成为了常态</b>。</p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">美国航空</a>公司二季度营收16亿美元，同比下降86.4%，净亏损达到20.67亿美元；</i></p>\n<p><i>美国联合航空公司二季度营收为14.75亿美元，仅为去年同期的零头（114.02亿美元）；二季度净亏损为16.27亿美元，由盈转亏（去年同期盈利10.52亿美元）；</i></p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>二季度营业收入14.68亿美元，同比下跌88.29%；净亏损57.17亿美元，同比下降496.19%，为2008年以来最大亏损数额；</i></p>\n<p><i><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LUV\">西南航空</a>公司二季度营收略高于10亿美元，同比下降近83%，净亏损9.15亿美元，盈转亏（去年同期盈利7.41亿美元）...</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n “今年二季度，四大航企（美联航、达美航空、美国航空和西南航空）营收累计55亿美元，运营开支达到159亿美元，净亏损近120亿美元，相当于平均每天就要亏掉1亿美元。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>航空公司盈利框架图</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18d63d717dc1e4219d9f41724b46641\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"496\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：平安证券</p>\n<p>要知道，航空业具有重资产、高负债等属性，<b>运行成本压力一直不容忽视</b>，而这在疫情面前已不堪一击，面对骤减的客座率，于是我们看到了它们的“不得已而为之”，即收缩成本、大额裁员等自救之举。而随着在价值320亿美元的航空业援助计划支持逐渐减弱，<b>9月底之后，一旦没有新的政府援助，美国航空业或加重这一恶性循环。</b></p>\n<p>美国国内航班机票销售的下降情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346a8a508f07a5045c053202d8f1bf76\" tg-width=\"535\" tg-height=\"541\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：DDS</p>\n<p>购买国际机票的乘客数量的下降情况</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf8db9dcee59763e3f7222356579a16\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"612\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：DDS</p>\n<blockquote>\n “目前的环境比我们想象的更加不可预测，更加不稳定。”——美国航空公司首席执行官道格·帕克\n</blockquote>\n<p>美国航空WOLF STREET指数</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a2b4c9cb09cd9212187fb74e6c905bd\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"577\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：YCharts</p>\n<p>对此，巴菲特已有先见之明，“忍痛割爱”，纷纷清空了美国四大航的股票，总计数十亿美元。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“受新冠疫情影响，航空业已发生根本变化，三四年内航空客运人数都不会恢复到去年水平。”——巴菲特</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>今年以来，美联航股价已累计下跌超60%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e75ff6dd410a2e914a9407f2d8c46ea\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"293\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>达美航空累计下跌超53%，美国航空累计下跌超54%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8923fb227b7e32160cbd59407b69a3\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"291\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>而在此颓靡之象下，“取消全球旅行警告”这一举措或只是安抚人心的一纸空谈，隔夜美股的短线拉升就如同夏日绽放的烟火，短暂灿烂过后剩下喘息求生的虚无。</p>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>新冠大流行这一卫生事件还未真正解决之时，<b>美国这一取消全球旅行的警告实在有些“鸡肋”</b>，毕竟疫情已重创经济，抑制消费，再加上多国的入境限制，人们难以心大的去出行。因此，在很大程度上，这一句“口嗨”也许只是特朗普为获取连任而提振市场信心，促消费的小手段之一。</p>\n<p>而在此情形之下，美国航空业的处境就显得较为卑微了，这一疫情重灾区所面临的经营困局大概率在中长期内无法解除，<b>漫漫复苏之路道阻且艰。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6636b11e33b9db4872348d6da7bca3c0","relate_stocks":{"UAL":"联合大陆航空","AAL":"美国航空","DAL":"达美航空"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170742161","content_text":"一打开微博，被热搜吸引了眼球。\n\n资料来源：微博\n美东时间8月6日，美国国务院宣布解除对本国公民的“第四级全球旅行警告”。\n上述这一警告自今年3月19日发出，旨在基于疫情影响，建议美国公民避免一切国际旅行。\n\n资料来源：官网公告\n\n “鉴于一些国家的卫生和安全状况正在改善，而其他国家可能正在恶化”，国务院恢复以前实施的按具体国家和地区给出旅行建议的制度。”——美国国务院\n\n\n资料来源：推特\n受此消息影响，隔夜美股航空股短线上扬，有所提振。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n然而，美国这一“此一时彼一时”的做法让人摸不着头脑，遭到网友诸多吐槽。\n\n资料来源：微博\n毕竟，进入下半年，新冠疫情依旧面临严峻挑战，而美国作为疫情发生的“主要震中”继续反复爆发，相关经济表现持续低迷，人们消费信心连连下降，哪有开始说走就走的旅行一说。\n在此之下，早已陷入亏损泥潭的航空业也只怕是越陷越深了。\n“不受欢迎”的美国人\n新冠疫情大流行的阴影依旧笼罩在全球上空。\n根据最新数据显示，截至目前，全球新冠肺炎确诊病例超过1922万例，累计死亡超过71万例，目前美国、巴西和印度的确诊病例数约占全球确诊数的一半，形势严峻。其中，全美共报告新冠肺炎确诊超过503万例，累计死亡超过16万例。\n\n数据来源：微博\n\n “在过去的七天里，一个严峻的新情况出现了：在美国，每80秒就有一人死于新冠病毒\"——美国全国广播公司\n\n时至今日，美国可以说是“自食恶果”，毕竟在疫情爆发初期，对疫情的轻视使得其未能有效进行防控，一错再错，错过了控制疫情蔓延的最佳拐点。\n而这一形势或许继续不受控。\n\n “在美国波士顿、芝加哥、底特律和华盛顿等城市，新冠病毒阳性比例还在缓慢上升，这预示着“未来不妙”。”——美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长福奇\n\n在这么一个混乱的疫情时期，美国选择取消全球旅行着实是“迷惑行为”，毕竟目前来说，目前全世界绝大多数国家与地区对此并不乐见，本身也不接受美国游客入境。\n\n资料来源：微博\n中国继续暂停持有效中国签证、居留许可的外国人入境；\n加拿大、墨西哥等地对来自美国的非必要旅行限制至少持续到8月下旬；\n欧盟继续禁止美国游客入境，英国要求入境必须隔离14天；\n\n“就算美国解除了全球旅行警告，各地都没有欢迎美国旅行者”。——《国会山报》\n\n因此，就外部环境而言，这一取消全球旅行警告对美国人来说，可谓是“旅游了个寂寞”，基本无处可游。\n美国经济“自身难保”\n而除了外部的限制之外，也许美国人自身也并没有什么闲情逸致去旅游。\n在疫情还未平复之际，美国急不可待重启经济，使得疫情得到进一步激化，反而致使经济前景不确定性加重，尤其是在美联储的无限量放水之后，实体经济和金融体系之间的结构性矛盾进一步凸显。\n\n “录得新增就业仅仅为16.7万人，远低于预期（150万人），前值从236.9万大幅上修至增加431.4万人。”——最新美国7月ADP就业报告\n\n当美股的泡沫虚高、美元指数持续下挫、政府债务风险激增、失业率反弹等一系列痛症避无可避之时，人们对美国经济前景趋于悲观，避险情绪自然占据上风。\n美元指数情况\n\n数据来源：Wind\n10年期美债收益率情况\n\n数据来源：Wind\n这也就是为什么金价居高不下，频创记录的原因，毕竟美国经济和疫情一样，都具有较大的不确定性。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n\n “这种对短期前景的不确定性，对经济复苏和消费者支出来说都不是好兆头。”——美国经济咨商会经济指标高级主管Lynn Franco\n\n而在这样的情绪支配之下，市场信心和投资下滑也是有目共睹的，此时吃饱穿暖按时交房租才是真理。\n\n “7月美国消费者信心指数从6月的78.1下跌到72.5，远低于去年同期（98.4）....7月美国消费者期待指数从6月的72.3下降到65.9。”——美国商务部\n\n要知道一般来说，个人消费支出约占美国经济比重的七成，是促进美国经济增长的重要助力，而从上述可以看出，在短期内，美国消费者支出很难恢复正常水平，这也意味着：即便是解除所谓的“全球旅行禁令”，人们也可能不会买账，只会更加握紧手中的钱袋子，那么与其直接相关的“嗷嗷待哺”的航空业也只能继续挣扎求生。\n提振航空业“有心无力”\n疫情打击了各行各业的发展势头，其中，旅游业自然首当其冲，拖着本就显出疲态的航空业一同陷入低谷。\n美国联邦运输安全管理局检查点安检人数\n\n数据来源：TSA\n在防控期间，没有客流量的航空公司如同失去梦想的咸鱼，巨亏成为了常态。\n美国航空公司二季度营收16亿美元，同比下降86.4%，净亏损达到20.67亿美元；\n美国联合航空公司二季度营收为14.75亿美元，仅为去年同期的零头（114.02亿美元）；二季度净亏损为16.27亿美元，由盈转亏（去年同期盈利10.52亿美元）；\n达美航空二季度营业收入14.68亿美元，同比下跌88.29%；净亏损57.17亿美元，同比下降496.19%，为2008年以来最大亏损数额；\n西南航空公司二季度营收略高于10亿美元，同比下降近83%，净亏损9.15亿美元，盈转亏（去年同期盈利7.41亿美元）...\n\n “今年二季度，四大航企（美联航、达美航空、美国航空和西南航空）营收累计55亿美元，运营开支达到159亿美元，净亏损近120亿美元，相当于平均每天就要亏掉1亿美元。”——公开数据\n\n航空公司盈利框架图\n\n资料来源：平安证券\n要知道，航空业具有重资产、高负债等属性，运行成本压力一直不容忽视，而这在疫情面前已不堪一击，面对骤减的客座率，于是我们看到了它们的“不得已而为之”，即收缩成本、大额裁员等自救之举。而随着在价值320亿美元的航空业援助计划支持逐渐减弱，9月底之后，一旦没有新的政府援助，美国航空业或加重这一恶性循环。\n美国国内航班机票销售的下降情况\n\n数据来源：DDS\n购买国际机票的乘客数量的下降情况\n\n数据来源：DDS\n\n “目前的环境比我们想象的更加不可预测，更加不稳定。”——美国航空公司首席执行官道格·帕克\n\n美国航空WOLF STREET指数\n\n数据来源：YCharts\n对此，巴菲特已有先见之明，“忍痛割爱”，纷纷清空了美国四大航的股票，总计数十亿美元。\n\n“受新冠疫情影响，航空业已发生根本变化，三四年内航空客运人数都不会恢复到去年水平。”——巴菲特\n\n今年以来，美联航股价已累计下跌超60%。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n达美航空累计下跌超53%，美国航空累计下跌超54%。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n而在此颓靡之象下，“取消全球旅行警告”这一举措或只是安抚人心的一纸空谈，隔夜美股的短线拉升就如同夏日绽放的烟火，短暂灿烂过后剩下喘息求生的虚无。\n结语\n新冠大流行这一卫生事件还未真正解决之时，美国这一取消全球旅行的警告实在有些“鸡肋”，毕竟疫情已重创经济，抑制消费，再加上多国的入境限制，人们难以心大的去出行。因此，在很大程度上，这一句“口嗨”也许只是特朗普为获取连任而提振市场信心，促消费的小手段之一。\n而在此情形之下，美国航空业的处境就显得较为卑微了，这一疫情重灾区所面临的经营困局大概率在中长期内无法解除，漫漫复苏之路道阻且艰。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959359599,"gmtCreate":1589804004811,"gmtModify":1704190635143,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>空头快平","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>空头快平","text":"$美国航空(AAL)$空头快平","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959359599","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927661045,"gmtCreate":1588859330587,"gmtModify":1704178678254,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈，迷信股神不如信自己","listText":"哈哈，迷信股神不如信自己","text":"哈哈，迷信股神不如信自己","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927661045","repostId":"2033313335","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2033313335","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"秦朔朋友圈","id":"60","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e"},"pubTimestamp":1588665360,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2033313335?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-05 15:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特，老了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2033313335","media":"秦朔朋友圈","summary":"· 这是第3287篇原创首发文章  字数 2k+ ·· 冀田 | 文  关注秦朔朋友圈  ID：qspyq2015 ·老骥89岁的时候，巴菲特第一次在线上用PPT开股东会。他说老狗也要学习新技能。他持","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p initial=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sc=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4e8abe480ea4e34b1e85e6168b163b7\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sc=\"\" semibold=\"\"><span><span arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>· </span></strong></span>这是第</span><span>3287</span><span>篇原创首发文章  </span><span>字数 2k<span>+</span> </span><span>·</span></p><p arial=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border-box=\"\" box-sizing:=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" line-height:=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" overflow-wrap:=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" text-align:=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" white-space:=\"\" word-wrap:=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>· 冀田 | 文  关注</span><span>秦朔朋友圈 </span><span> </span><span>ID：qspyq2015 </span><span><strong><span>·</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfd77cfb07164fa2bcb57804c1455112\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p><span><strong><span>老骥</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>89岁的时候，巴菲特第一次在线上用PPT开股东会。他说老狗也要学习新技能。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他持有的股票里，按市值计算<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司排第一，占其持股总市值的30%。这家公司在他77岁的时候推出了一个叫智能手机的东西，老头子花了9年时间研究。看懂了。2016年第一次买了苹果股票。如果你看看橱柜里买给老爸老妈、爷爷奶奶用的老年机，可能还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>的模样，只能打电话，150块钱一个。就凭这点，巴菲特与时俱进的学习能力还是很强的。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a255ee9058345a388c11835fb25acee\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3816d7401464be1b6f233d5ee846348\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>不懂</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>巴菲特读书的时候，会计很好，生物很差。</span><span>所以，他只能说这次病毒危机和金融危机完全不一样。</span><span>病毒会怎么发展？</span><span>影响很大，他说不清楚。</span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>好在他有最好的朋友比尔·盖茨，和他讨论。比尔·盖茨一生都在和病毒作战。从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>退休前，和电脑病毒作战，现在盖茨基金会在和生物病毒作战。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>但巴菲特还是没搞懂微软和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>的股票，哪个更好。<strong>老爷子一分钱微软都没买过。但不仅买了IBM，还做了第一大股东，然后割肉出局。</strong>很多人已经不记得，装在IBM小黑本上的微软最稳定，中毒少，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>电脑就差很多了。<strong>微软现在的市值是10个IBM。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>来看巴菲特股东大会的，有两类人，一类是来沾股神仙气的，股神说什么不要紧；一类是来取真经的，但股神说他也不懂，是啥意思呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>不懂就是不懂，比不懂装懂好。老巴很可爱。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214770ac60584264b2a8b3aaa4c8952f\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>果断</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>本来呢，老爷子一口气买入美国四大航空公司，不是第一大股东就是第二大股东。</span><span>看阵势，要控股航空业，重组个巴菲特航空出来。</span><strong><span>没想到股东会上，老爷子轻松说，全清仓了。</span><span>四个大股东，一个月时间清仓，这事谁干的出来？</span></strong><span></span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>，买入成本31亿，去年年底浮盈10亿。那时候股价58美元，现在25美元，抹去浮盈，还亏13亿。说卖就卖了，一股不剩。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>老爷子说，我们卖股票的时候，要卖就全卖，一半一半地卖，我们不要这样做。我们就是一下子卖到底。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>想想我们自己，买的时候要定投，卖的时候舍不得。咋就那么纠结。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>越老决策力越强，割肉都这么帅。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a59bfed1fc4b09999c7a9c1ed3322e\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1242434d731348f1ba130d387745d317\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>恐惧</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>巴菲特老说别人恐惧时，自己要贪婪。</span><span>贪婪就要加仓。</span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>看得出来，老爷子还没开始贪婪，他还在恐惧。他在一季度疫情期间股价暴跌的时候，不仅没加仓，还割肉了，仓位更低了，现金更多了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>股东会上，他说他出生前的事。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他老爸27岁生的他。生他前一年是1929年，那年10月美国大股灾爆发，大萧条开始。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他爸爸当时是股票经纪人，替别人买卖股票。他替人把一支股票卖给了好几个人，结果这支股票跌了40%。他老爸觉得没办法面对这些买了股票的人，决定开始居家，类似现在的居家隔离。10个月后，巴菲特就出生了，生日是1930年8月30号。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>从那天开始，股价就开始回升了，半个月的时间涨了20%。熊市反弹。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>到1932年巴菲特2岁的时候，几乎所有股票都涨了80%以上。他老爸那时候已经不用太内疚了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>生下来就受恐惧训练，老爷子的恐惧阀值很高，不轻易恐惧，因此也不轻易贪婪。不贪婪就不出手。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>没想到，张三丰90岁的时候遇到敌手。对病毒，老爷子，怕是有点怕了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>反过来说，连巴菲特都怕了，咱们是不是该贪婪呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/576ec06428714dbf8adb2b5c1b9d956d\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60a11abf669497a9bd950dafd0afd85\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><strong><span>“神话”</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>老爷子牛，牛在</span><span>50年</span><span>来，没有一个基金经理业绩超过他。</span><span>当然，也找不出另一个人，有</span><span>50</span><span>年的投资业绩。</span></strong><span></span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>老爷子靠实力说话，炒股成了世界首富。多少做投资的人，想想巴菲特，就不在乎那几根掉的头发了。<strong>老爷子就是投资青年们奋进征途上的明灯。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>好事者统计了1965年至2020年55年的时间里，老爷子赚取超额收益的能力，也就是跑赢/跑输大盘指数（标普500指数）的情况。竟然发现，神话已破十几个年头，只是我们没把神的业绩当人去分析。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264e739a4edc440cb4274685b9ce9050\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span>| 巴菲特55年来超额收益越来越低</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>巴菲特的超额收益高峰在</span><span>50</span><span>岁左右，此后一路下跌。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>更严重的是，巴菲特的投资风格是大盘价值股，而十几年来，他跑不赢大盘指数，也跑不赢价值指数。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c87dd3ec46643f3b3dcaaac8239f2b0\"/><span>| <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>和指数的超额收益，数据截至2019年年中，至今没大变化</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e48c0a9be140484ab30337414774b813\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><strong><span>接班</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>人们议论巴菲特打不赢市场的原因。有这么几个。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>市场风格变了。</span></strong><span>2008年</span><span>以来，价值股表现显著低于成长股。</span><span>这个理由站得住脚。</span><span>不过，苹果是成长股还是价值股？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>规模太大。</span></strong><span></span><span>股神几千亿美元的规模太大了，和整个市场没区别。</span><span>那我们买指数就行了，参加股东大会干啥？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>只能钓大鱼。</span></strong><span></span><span>资金太大导致的。</span><span>但这不是理由。</span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>都是大股票，买了就跑赢市场啊。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>踩了雷。</span></strong><span></span><span>比如说，老爷子促成了亨氏和卡夫合并，番茄酱拌上了奥利奥、太平梳打，外加麦斯威尔咖啡。</span><span>结果是股价跌了</span><span>50%</span><span>多，减值了</span><span>150</span><span>亿。</span><span><span>这个理由站</span>得<span>住脚。</span></span><span>但为什么踩雷呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>却没人敢说他老了。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5027270aa64f05bf88afb69b9c3c1b\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他要90岁了。他的合伙人芒格96岁。芒格没有参加今年的股东会，巴菲特说芒格很壮实，明年会来。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他的储备接班人之一阿贝尔，59岁，加拿大人，会计专业，在普华永道PWC工作过，一直在能源行业，分管伯克希尔的非保险业务运营。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>另一个接班人简因，68岁，印度人，机器工程学专业、IBM销售出身，哈佛MBA毕业，在麦肯锡做过咨询，后加入伯克希尔负责保险业务运营。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>两人中没一个有职业股票投资经历。</span><span>股神</span><span>怎么想的？</span></strong><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/291fa5cbaa874ab99146756a9b1b4398\" width=\"auto\"/></span></p><ul><li><p><span><span>作者简介：</span><span>冀田，领复资本创始人、注册金融分析师（</span><span>CFA</span><span>）、《家庭投资和家族办公室》一书作者，</span><span>风险投资人。</span></span></p></li></ul><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>「 本文仅代表作者个人观点 」</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span>「 图片 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span><span> 」</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4376fe67452460095daeeb303cb5815\" width=\"auto\"/></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>秦朔朋友圈id：qspyq2015 开白名单：duanyu_H</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>商务合作：biz@chinamoments.org</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>内容合作、投稿交流：friends@chinamoments.org</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb208e49197d4c7f929917a4badcd0bc\"/></span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13018f586f174a4ebbf18b5ebd7cc893\"/></span></span><span><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b987cd934d9f4a199f170943986fa882\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></span></p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特，老了？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特，老了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/60\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/707686f07ebc41778130c729f4eea24e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">秦朔朋友圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-05-05 15:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div>\n<p initial=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sc=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4e8abe480ea4e34b1e85e6168b163b7\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sc=\"\" semibold=\"\"><span><span arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>· </span></strong></span>这是第</span><span>3287</span><span>篇原创首发文章  </span><span>字数 2k<span>+</span> </span><span>·</span></p><p arial=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border-box=\"\" box-sizing:=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" line-height:=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" overflow-wrap:=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" text-align:=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" white-space:=\"\" word-wrap:=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>· 冀田 | 文  关注</span><span>秦朔朋友圈 </span><span> </span><span>ID：qspyq2015 </span><span><strong><span>·</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfd77cfb07164fa2bcb57804c1455112\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p><span><strong><span>老骥</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>89岁的时候，巴菲特第一次在线上用PPT开股东会。他说老狗也要学习新技能。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他持有的股票里，按市值计算<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>公司排第一，占其持股总市值的30%。这家公司在他77岁的时候推出了一个叫智能手机的东西，老头子花了9年时间研究。看懂了。2016年第一次买了苹果股票。如果你看看橱柜里买给老爸老妈、爷爷奶奶用的老年机，可能还是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">爱立信</a>的模样，只能打电话，150块钱一个。就凭这点，巴菲特与时俱进的学习能力还是很强的。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a255ee9058345a388c11835fb25acee\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3816d7401464be1b6f233d5ee846348\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>不懂</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>巴菲特读书的时候，会计很好，生物很差。</span><span>所以，他只能说这次病毒危机和金融危机完全不一样。</span><span>病毒会怎么发展？</span><span>影响很大，他说不清楚。</span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>好在他有最好的朋友比尔·盖茨，和他讨论。比尔·盖茨一生都在和病毒作战。从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>退休前，和电脑病毒作战，现在盖茨基金会在和生物病毒作战。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>但巴菲特还是没搞懂微软和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>的股票，哪个更好。<strong>老爷子一分钱微软都没买过。但不仅买了IBM，还做了第一大股东，然后割肉出局。</strong>很多人已经不记得，装在IBM小黑本上的微软最稳定，中毒少，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DELL\">戴尔</a>电脑就差很多了。<strong>微软现在的市值是10个IBM。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>来看巴菲特股东大会的，有两类人，一类是来沾股神仙气的，股神说什么不要紧；一类是来取真经的，但股神说他也不懂，是啥意思呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>不懂就是不懂，比不懂装懂好。老巴很可爱。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214770ac60584264b2a8b3aaa4c8952f\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>果断</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>本来呢，老爷子一口气买入美国四大航空公司，不是第一大股东就是第二大股东。</span><span>看阵势，要控股航空业，重组个巴菲特航空出来。</span><strong><span>没想到股东会上，老爷子轻松说，全清仓了。</span><span>四个大股东，一个月时间清仓，这事谁干的出来？</span></strong><span></span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>，买入成本31亿，去年年底浮盈10亿。那时候股价58美元，现在25美元，抹去浮盈，还亏13亿。说卖就卖了，一股不剩。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>老爷子说，我们卖股票的时候，要卖就全卖，一半一半地卖，我们不要这样做。我们就是一下子卖到底。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>想想我们自己，买的时候要定投，卖的时候舍不得。咋就那么纠结。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>越老决策力越强，割肉都这么帅。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57a59bfed1fc4b09999c7a9c1ed3322e\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1242434d731348f1ba130d387745d317\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span><strong><span>恐惧</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>巴菲特老说别人恐惧时，自己要贪婪。</span><span>贪婪就要加仓。</span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>看得出来，老爷子还没开始贪婪，他还在恐惧。他在一季度疫情期间股价暴跌的时候，不仅没加仓，还割肉了，仓位更低了，现金更多了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>股东会上，他说他出生前的事。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他老爸27岁生的他。生他前一年是1929年，那年10月美国大股灾爆发，大萧条开始。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他爸爸当时是股票经纪人，替别人买卖股票。他替人把一支股票卖给了好几个人，结果这支股票跌了40%。他老爸觉得没办法面对这些买了股票的人，决定开始居家，类似现在的居家隔离。10个月后，巴菲特就出生了，生日是1930年8月30号。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>从那天开始，股价就开始回升了，半个月的时间涨了20%。熊市反弹。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>到1932年巴菲特2岁的时候，几乎所有股票都涨了80%以上。他老爸那时候已经不用太内疚了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>生下来就受恐惧训练，老爷子的恐惧阀值很高，不轻易恐惧，因此也不轻易贪婪。不贪婪就不出手。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>没想到，张三丰90岁的时候遇到敌手。对病毒，老爷子，怕是有点怕了。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>反过来说，连巴菲特都怕了，咱们是不是该贪婪呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/576ec06428714dbf8adb2b5c1b9d956d\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60a11abf669497a9bd950dafd0afd85\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><strong><span>“神话”</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>老爷子牛，牛在</span><span>50年</span><span>来，没有一个基金经理业绩超过他。</span><span>当然，也找不出另一个人，有</span><span>50</span><span>年的投资业绩。</span></strong><span></span><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>老爷子靠实力说话，炒股成了世界首富。多少做投资的人，想想巴菲特，就不在乎那几根掉的头发了。<strong>老爷子就是投资青年们奋进征途上的明灯。</strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>好事者统计了1965年至2020年55年的时间里，老爷子赚取超额收益的能力，也就是跑赢/跑输大盘指数（标普500指数）的情况。竟然发现，神话已破十几个年头，只是我们没把神的业绩当人去分析。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264e739a4edc440cb4274685b9ce9050\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><span>| 巴菲特55年来超额收益越来越低</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>巴菲特的超额收益高峰在</span><span>50</span><span>岁左右，此后一路下跌。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>更严重的是，巴菲特的投资风格是大盘价值股，而十几年来，他跑不赢大盘指数，也跑不赢价值指数。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c87dd3ec46643f3b3dcaaac8239f2b0\"/><span>| <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>和指数的超额收益，数据截至2019年年中，至今没大变化</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e48c0a9be140484ab30337414774b813\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/><strong><span>接班</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>人们议论巴菲特打不赢市场的原因。有这么几个。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>市场风格变了。</span></strong><span>2008年</span><span>以来，价值股表现显著低于成长股。</span><span>这个理由站得住脚。</span><span>不过，苹果是成长股还是价值股？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>规模太大。</span></strong><span></span><span>股神几千亿美元的规模太大了，和整个市场没区别。</span><span>那我们买指数就行了，参加股东大会干啥？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>只能钓大鱼。</span></strong><span></span><span>资金太大导致的。</span><span>但这不是理由。</span><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>都是大股票，买了就跑赢市场啊。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>踩了雷。</span></strong><span></span><span>比如说，老爷子促成了亨氏和卡夫合并，番茄酱拌上了奥利奥、太平梳打，外加麦斯威尔咖啡。</span><span>结果是股价跌了</span><span>50%</span><span>多，减值了</span><span>150</span><span>亿。</span><span><span>这个理由站</span>得<span>住脚。</span></span><span>但为什么踩雷呢？</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>却没人敢说他老了。</span></strong></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5027270aa64f05bf88afb69b9c3c1b\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他要90岁了。他的合伙人芒格96岁。芒格没有参加今年的股东会，巴菲特说芒格很壮实，明年会来。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>他的储备接班人之一阿贝尔，59岁，加拿大人，会计专业，在普华永道PWC工作过，一直在能源行业，分管伯克希尔的非保险业务运营。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>另一个接班人简因，68岁，印度人，机器工程学专业、IBM销售出身，哈佛MBA毕业，在麦肯锡做过咨询，后加入伯克希尔负责保险业务运营。</span></p><p arial=\"\" auto=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" left=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" repeat=\"\" rgb=\"\" rgba=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><strong><span>两人中没一个有职业股票投资经历。</span><span>股神</span><span>怎么想的？</span></strong><span></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/291fa5cbaa874ab99146756a9b1b4398\" width=\"auto\"/></span></p><ul><li><p><span><span>作者简介：</span><span>冀田，领复资本创始人、注册金融分析师（</span><span>CFA</span><span>）、《家庭投资和家族办公室》一书作者，</span><span>风险投资人。</span></span></p></li></ul><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>「 本文仅代表作者个人观点 」</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span>「 图片 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000681\">视觉中国</a></span><span> 」</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4376fe67452460095daeeb303cb5815\" width=\"auto\"/></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>秦朔朋友圈id：qspyq2015 开白名单：duanyu_H</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>商务合作：biz@chinamoments.org</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span>内容合作、投稿交流：friends@chinamoments.org</span></p><p arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-word=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb208e49197d4c7f929917a4badcd0bc\"/></span><span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13018f586f174a4ebbf18b5ebd7cc893\"/></span></span><span><img arial=\"\" gb=\"\" helvetica=\"\" neue=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b987cd934d9f4a199f170943986fa882\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"/></span></p>\n</div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e152604a758586cf70e9ccdd654d17d","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA3ODI5NDg0Mw==&mid=2654114027&idx=2&sn=8fb30abe439520375efed6d6713c0060&chksm=8482cabfb3f543a9b998b9b4df396c5450ad6c7c4d3e366726e750f6b87454294486f3de9b71&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/ecd74548980bc5b366aa8f4b37ed0bd5","article_id":"2033313335","content_text":"· 这是第3287篇原创首发文章  字数 2k+ ·· 冀田 | 文  关注秦朔朋友圈  ID：qspyq2015 ·老骥89岁的时候，巴菲特第一次在线上用PPT开股东会。他说老狗也要学习新技能。他持有的股票里，按市值计算苹果公司排第一，占其持股总市值的30%。这家公司在他77岁的时候推出了一个叫智能手机的东西，老头子花了9年时间研究。看懂了。2016年第一次买了苹果股票。如果你看看橱柜里买给老爸老妈、爷爷奶奶用的老年机，可能还是爱立信的模样，只能打电话，150块钱一个。就凭这点，巴菲特与时俱进的学习能力还是很强的。不懂巴菲特读书的时候，会计很好，生物很差。所以，他只能说这次病毒危机和金融危机完全不一样。病毒会怎么发展？影响很大，他说不清楚。好在他有最好的朋友比尔·盖茨，和他讨论。比尔·盖茨一生都在和病毒作战。从微软退休前，和电脑病毒作战，现在盖茨基金会在和生物病毒作战。但巴菲特还是没搞懂微软和IBM的股票，哪个更好。老爷子一分钱微软都没买过。但不仅买了IBM，还做了第一大股东，然后割肉出局。很多人已经不记得，装在IBM小黑本上的微软最稳定，中毒少，戴尔电脑就差很多了。微软现在的市值是10个IBM。来看巴菲特股东大会的，有两类人，一类是来沾股神仙气的，股神说什么不要紧；一类是来取真经的，但股神说他也不懂，是啥意思呢？不懂就是不懂，比不懂装懂好。老巴很可爱。果断本来呢，老爷子一口气买入美国四大航空公司，不是第一大股东就是第二大股东。看阵势，要控股航空业，重组个巴菲特航空出来。没想到股东会上，老爷子轻松说，全清仓了。四个大股东，一个月时间清仓，这事谁干的出来？达美航空，买入成本31亿，去年年底浮盈10亿。那时候股价58美元，现在25美元，抹去浮盈，还亏13亿。说卖就卖了，一股不剩。老爷子说，我们卖股票的时候，要卖就全卖，一半一半地卖，我们不要这样做。我们就是一下子卖到底。想想我们自己，买的时候要定投，卖的时候舍不得。咋就那么纠结。越老决策力越强，割肉都这么帅。恐惧巴菲特老说别人恐惧时，自己要贪婪。贪婪就要加仓。看得出来，老爷子还没开始贪婪，他还在恐惧。他在一季度疫情期间股价暴跌的时候，不仅没加仓，还割肉了，仓位更低了，现金更多了。股东会上，他说他出生前的事。他老爸27岁生的他。生他前一年是1929年，那年10月美国大股灾爆发，大萧条开始。他爸爸当时是股票经纪人，替别人买卖股票。他替人把一支股票卖给了好几个人，结果这支股票跌了40%。他老爸觉得没办法面对这些买了股票的人，决定开始居家，类似现在的居家隔离。10个月后，巴菲特就出生了，生日是1930年8月30号。从那天开始，股价就开始回升了，半个月的时间涨了20%。熊市反弹。到1932年巴菲特2岁的时候，几乎所有股票都涨了80%以上。他老爸那时候已经不用太内疚了。生下来就受恐惧训练，老爷子的恐惧阀值很高，不轻易恐惧，因此也不轻易贪婪。不贪婪就不出手。没想到，张三丰90岁的时候遇到敌手。对病毒，老爷子，怕是有点怕了。反过来说，连巴菲特都怕了，咱们是不是该贪婪呢？“神话”老爷子牛，牛在50年来，没有一个基金经理业绩超过他。当然，也找不出另一个人，有50年的投资业绩。老爷子靠实力说话，炒股成了世界首富。多少做投资的人，想想巴菲特，就不在乎那几根掉的头发了。老爷子就是投资青年们奋进征途上的明灯。好事者统计了1965年至2020年55年的时间里，老爷子赚取超额收益的能力，也就是跑赢/跑输大盘指数（标普500指数）的情况。竟然发现，神话已破十几个年头，只是我们没把神的业绩当人去分析。| 巴菲特55年来超额收益越来越低巴菲特的超额收益高峰在50岁左右，此后一路下跌。更严重的是，巴菲特的投资风格是大盘价值股，而十几年来，他跑不赢大盘指数，也跑不赢价值指数。| 伯克希尔和指数的超额收益，数据截至2019年年中，至今没大变化接班人们议论巴菲特打不赢市场的原因。有这么几个。市场风格变了。2008年以来，价值股表现显著低于成长股。这个理由站得住脚。不过，苹果是成长股还是价值股？规模太大。股神几千亿美元的规模太大了，和整个市场没区别。那我们买指数就行了，参加股东大会干啥？只能钓大鱼。资金太大导致的。但这不是理由。亚马逊、微软、谷歌都是大股票，买了就跑赢市场啊。踩了雷。比如说，老爷子促成了亨氏和卡夫合并，番茄酱拌上了奥利奥、太平梳打，外加麦斯威尔咖啡。结果是股价跌了50%多，减值了150亿。这个理由站得住脚。但为什么踩雷呢？却没人敢说他老了。他要90岁了。他的合伙人芒格96岁。芒格没有参加今年的股东会，巴菲特说芒格很壮实，明年会来。他的储备接班人之一阿贝尔，59岁，加拿大人，会计专业，在普华永道PWC工作过，一直在能源行业，分管伯克希尔的非保险业务运营。另一个接班人简因，68岁，印度人，机器工程学专业、IBM销售出身，哈佛MBA毕业，在麦肯锡做过咨询，后加入伯克希尔负责保险业务运营。两人中没一个有职业股票投资经历。股神怎么想的？作者简介：冀田，领复资本创始人、注册金融分析师（CFA）、《家庭投资和家族办公室》一书作者，风险投资人。「 本文仅代表作者个人观点 」「 图片 | 视觉中国 」秦朔朋友圈id：qspyq2015 开白名单：duanyu_H商务合作：biz@chinamoments.org内容合作、投稿交流：friends@chinamoments.org","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924481060,"gmtCreate":1588580107850,"gmtModify":1704367791150,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAL\">$美国航空(AAL)$</a>巴菲特也配叫股神？纯**","listText":"<a 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09:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞幸的军刀，星巴克的旗杆","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2012700506","media":"投资界","summary":"“咖啡可以喝了”“给我搞一杯”2月12日，傍晚六点二十分，武汉六七二医院内部微信群，一段与“战疫”紧张气氛不太搭的对话流传到网上，对话框中还有一张照片：屏幕上显示着：“正在为您制作中，请稍等……”瑞幸","content":"<html><body><article><p>“咖啡可以喝了”</p><p>“给我搞一杯”</p><p>2月12日，傍晚六点二十分，武汉六七二医院内部微信群，一段与“战疫”紧张气氛不太搭的对话流传到网上，对话框中还有一张照片：屏幕上显示着：“正在为您制作中，请稍等……”</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20200218093017909v235vwhoppwwfk4\"/><p>瑞幸的无人咖啡机到武汉医院了。</p><p>这个画风可能有些奇怪，我稍微解释一下，武汉疫情发生之后，考虑到城市门店关闭，一线的医生又很忙，在总部资源的全力支持下，瑞幸在武汉的4名一线员工，花了5天时间，将一台四百斤的大家伙和原料弄进了医院，免费让医务人员喝上了热腾腾的现磨咖啡。</p><p>而这个无人咖啡机，正是一个多月前瑞幸刚刚发布的无人零售终端之一“瑞即购”无人咖啡机。</p><p>把“瑞即购”无人咖啡机搬进医院，既贡献了企业的一份心意，又解决了医生喝咖啡的需求，同时无人工参与、无接触的流程又杜绝了病毒接触的风险，这招可以说很机智。</p><p>有杠精可能要问了，疫情这么严重，瑞幸就捐咖啡机吗？其实不是，疫情发生后，瑞幸捐了1000万，并且向全国抗击疫情的一线医院开放了“瑞即购”的免费申领。当然，瑞幸的老朋友<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>也捐了300万，外加800多箱星倍醇等罐装咖啡饮品。</p><p>咖啡既能提神，也是镇定和安抚情绪的代名词——在很多末日生存的游戏设定里，一杯咖啡就能恢复主角的精神、精力以及状态。</p><p>不过这次疫情下，两家的差距其实已经开始显现了——星巴克中规中矩，而瑞幸已经开始玩起了数字化和技术，把无人零售的热咖啡送到医院，这背后其实两种观念的折射——星巴克依然固守它的第三空间理论，而瑞幸从咖啡起家，推出小鹿茶后，今年又宣布切入无人零售领域，换句话说，两家不论从产品形态、商业模式以及用户场景上，都有巨大的区别，这也是为什么我说，从一台无人咖啡机背后，能看出瑞幸和星巴克已经越走越远了。</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>瑞幸的“灵活身段”</strong></p><p>说实话，瑞幸和星巴克都挺惨的。</p><p><strong>这次疫情对全行业来说是个AOE，而首当其冲的就是线下的消费，无论是上游的供应、物流、还是下游的制作，消费，餐饮零售行业都大量依赖于人力协作，这意味着疫情带来的影响其实是作用于供需两端的，很难通过“硬抗”改善。</strong></p><p>一个明显的例子就是瑞幸从1月23日起暂停了武汉地区全部门店营业。而总是被外界视为瑞幸“对手”的星巴克则是在宣布湖北省内暂停营业后，又临时关闭了在中国超过一半的门店。</p><p>当然还有“现金流扛不过 3 个月”的西贝，“天一亮就要支付 250 万元”的外婆家，港股上市不到一个月就蒸发了 30 亿港元市值的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09922\">九毛九</a>，内地所有门店暂停营业的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06862\">海底捞</a>……</p><p><strong>而瑞幸的灵活和牛逼之处在于，一个月前发布的产品，也就是无人咖啡机和无人售卖机，能够在这么短的时间内落地到一线医院，敏锐度和执行力以及背后的供应链值得学习；其次是从战略层面看，瑞幸通过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>和小鹿茶占领了大量线下门店后，又推出无人零售战略，继续抢占新的场景。</strong></p><p><strong>而疫情的爆发，使得用户对非接触消费的需求激增——这对无人零售来说正是非常好的培育市场和用户的机会，因此即便是门店受损，但用户心智和消费习惯却由此建立起来了。</strong></p><p>再多说一句，不是作秀，咖啡对于普通脑力工作者尤其是一线的医生来说，真的是刚需。</p><p>要知道，哪怕在平常，工作的特殊性早已使得咖啡被医务人员用于“续命”。工作时间和强度的暴涨，更使咖啡因的需求大大提升，不少咖啡店都以外卖形式参与其中。</p><p>但外卖始终有其弊端。一方面，制作、外送的过程涉及到多个人工环节，感染风险始终存在；另一方面，特殊时期医务人员日夜颠倒、随时响应的特征，很难保证及时送达。</p><p>接到多家医院的援助请求后，瑞幸决定将无人咖啡机“瑞即购”搬进医院以解燃眉之急。而在医务人员端起第一杯加浓焦糖美式的4天前，瑞幸的行动进度都还近乎为0。</p><p>在总部与一线4位员工的支持下，瑞幸不仅让 IT团队两天开发完成免费版系统，更协调了农夫山泉武汉总仓取水，荣庆物流保供货车运输原材料，顺丰通过特殊物资方式从上海寄来杯子……</p><p>在配齐充足原料的同时，全国各地的无人咖啡机、原材料都在向武汉集结，海外供应商也开始加速生产和配送；配合与院方建立的培训通道和支援小组，为后续落地中的医院提供持续保障。</p><p>目前，“瑞即购”已经面向全国三甲医院开启快速申领通道，在疫情完全结束前为医护人员免费提供咖啡饮品。</p><p><strong>短短五天，瑞幸就在疫情导致的停摆之中，将无人咖啡机投入到了一线，并打磨出了全套的执行方案，效率之高，恐怕还是得益于背后灵活的组织架构和商业模式。</strong></p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>瑞幸的军刀，星巴克的旗杆</strong></p><p>稍微梳理一下近期瑞幸的动向，不难发现“瑞即购”和“瑞划算”并不是专为疫情而准备，二者都是瑞幸“无人零售战略”旗下的无人零售终端，这一战略的公布不过是今年 1月8日的事。</p><p>战略亮相并不久，但背后已是长线布局。钱治亚透露，瑞幸一年前就开始研发无人咖啡机，如今已是第二代。作为国内最<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>、最贵的无人咖啡机，“瑞即购”能达到与门店一致的口感和品质。</p><p>与门店相同的瑞士进口Schaerer全自动咖啡机，优于市面上两三万元的咖啡机；相同的获得IIAC金奖的咖啡豆，以及新西兰恒天然旗下安佳纯牛奶，与市面上的咖啡粉与奶精区别开来。</p><p>此外，每台“瑞即购”机器上都配了智能物联网系统，监控咖啡机运行状况与每杯咖啡出品，以保证所有咖啡都能保持和瑞幸门店同样的出品品质。</p><p><strong>不难看出，瑞幸为了保证无人零售设备出品能与门店保持同一水准，在研发出品、原料供应、数据采集与分析等上游环节进行了大量打磨的工作，这使其能够迅速被部署于“战疫”一线。</strong></p><p><strong>即将和“瑞即购”一起进入抗疫一线的瑞幸无人售卖机“瑞划算”，也充分印证了瑞幸在供应链和产品能力上的优势。针对疫情，“瑞划算”在饮品零食等日常补给外，还增加了消毒湿巾、酒精喷雾和棉片、免洗洗手液、消毒泡腾片等健康防疫用品。</strong></p><p>在瑞幸大举向数字化和技术迈进的时候，星巴克则依然固守着他的第三空间理论。</p><p>这里有必要提一下星巴克引以为傲的“第三空间”理论。</p><p>简单来说，家庭居住空间为第一空间，职场为第二空间，而城市的酒吧、咖啡店、博物馆、图书馆、公园等公共空间为第三空间。从很早开始，星巴克的门店设计就开始为营造一个“第三空间”的氛围服务，并有意开始打造星巴克自己的社区文化。这也让星巴克的门店设计成为零售业的经典案例。</p><p>馥郁的咖啡香气、舒缓的音乐、柔和的灯光、舒服的沙发，这就是星巴克所努力打造的标签。</p><p>舒尔茨就曾在自传《一路向前》中喊出“让三明治滚出星巴克”。原因就是这会影响星巴克店内浓郁的咖啡香气，并让星巴克“专注咖啡”的品牌形象不纯粹。</p><p>星巴克粉丝非常愿意分享的这种故事：长期在一家星巴克消费，与伙伴成为朋友后，自己的口味被伙伴摸得一清二楚，点单时一个眼神就行。不时还能体验一下好豆子和隐藏菜单。</p><p>但星巴克却忽略了数字化和移动化所带来的消费和场景的变化。</p><p>比如在美国，咖啡外带的比例已经达到80%~90%，亚洲咖啡消费大国日本在上世纪 90 年代开始，全自动咖啡贩卖机已经逐渐普及；而瑞幸最新数据显示，七成用户也是选择了外带。</p><p>另外，星巴克作为连锁咖啡，本就从未聚集起“品质需求型”用户，只是抓住了“功能需求型”的白领用户。在质量处于同一水准的瑞幸出现后，星巴克自然会在潜力更大的外带市场落于下风。</p><p><strong>我们在之前的一篇文章中就提到过，此前星巴克宣布订单和会员体系全面接入饿了么、盒马、淘宝等平台后其实已经说明了一件事，那就是星巴克已经放弃了平台入口，甘愿做一个咖啡供应商。</strong></p><p>眼见着自己的app逐渐沦为鸡肋，而瑞幸则借助瑞幸咖啡和小鹿茶积累的交易用户数已突破 4000 万，现在同样是捐助，自己捐的是灌装咖啡，瑞幸则是直接捐手机扫码就能下单的无人咖啡机，并且还是全国联网数据互通，如果我是星巴克的CEO，我也着急。</p><p>所以，为什么说瑞幸与星巴克们的比拼已经不在同一维度，因为对于几十年跑完欧洲上百年历史的中国市场而言，外带服务能力已经成为竞争胜负手，而这背后更是技术与数字化能力的比拼。</p><p>瑞幸像一把挥舞的军刀，披荆斩棘，而星巴克则像一个旗杆立在那，岁月静好。</p><p>外带体验的核心是什么？是保证用户既不用等候，又能享受适宜温度的确定性。这意味着，覆盖的密度与广度、饮品制作的标准化与流程化、原材料供应配送的即时性……都有着更高的要求。</p><p>这也就解释了为何在门店达到4507家后，瑞幸才发布了无人零售战略，因为咖啡店并不是瑞幸的目的，将咖啡甚至于更多商品卖到更多场景才是，“瑞即购”和“瑞划算”则是其重要的一环。</p><p><strong>战“疫”只是一个特殊场景，却能看出背后的路线之争。</strong></p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><strong>平台、中枢和基础设施</strong></p><p>接上文之前，有必要引入一个案例。</p><p>数年前，马斯克还被外界视为一个资本市场投机者。因为他连续创立SolarCity、SpaceX、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>三家公司，并投资一连串看似不着边际的科技公司的做法，属于典型的“不务正业”。</p><p>但这其实是马斯克将“殖民火星”构想进行了一步步拆分：火星没有氧气，内燃机无法工作，于是创办了电动车企业特斯拉；特斯拉需要电脑，但火星更没有水，不可能化石能源发电，于是创办<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">太阳能</a>技术企业 SolarCity；而人和这一切设备还需要运输到火星，于是有了SpaceX。</p><p><strong>将一个宏伟目标拆分为多个环节，从其中一个环节入手，进行资金与技术的储备，然后不断以此类推到下一阶段，最终实现终极目标。这便是被不少投行大佬推崇的“第一性原理”。</strong></p><p>带着这一视角回顾如今的瑞幸，其实就很容易看懂了。我们从瑞幸的终极目标入手，它只是想卖咖啡吗？显然不是，钱治亚将其描述为一个“自有流量+自有产品的智慧零售平台”。</p><p>在这样一个宏伟的目标之下，有着潜力大、增速快、现有价格、品质结构不合理、品牌选择不足等特点的中国咖啡市场，显然作为一个很好的抓手被瑞幸选中了。</p><p><strong>针对市场特点，瑞幸必然要以性价比和效率作为切入点进行突围。</strong></p><p>为什么能将消费行为全部归口到瑞幸App？因为只有线上化才能迅速积累精准的大数据；为什么能疯狂进行大规模开店？一来，只有建立足够高的网点密度，才能保证极高的效率；二来，通过App、设备物联网积累的精准大数据，能为研发、选址、备料、招聘等全链条提供指导，小鹿茶的诞生亦是如此。</p><p>为什么要推无人零售？一方面，这是咖啡进入“无限场景”的刚需；<strong>另一方面，自营4507 家瑞幸咖啡和小鹿茶合伙人加盟网络本质就是一个成熟的支撑体系。</strong></p><p>人力方面，只需要对原有店员做一些简单培训，就能对无人咖啡机进行维护，避免了上一代无人咖啡机专职管理人员，不得不面对的效率成本难两全的死穴；仓储方面，每一个门店更能兼有前置仓的职能，实现了提效降本。</p><p>最关键的是，在线上预约下单流程打通，机器实现了与门店相同品质的前提下，无人零售能凭借远低于门店的成本，打进了更多写字楼、商场等场景，触达更多以往无法覆盖的潜在消费。</p><p><strong>可以下一个结论：无人零售不是瑞幸“穷途末路”需要新故事来“忽悠”投资者，而是向着既定的目标进入了下一个阶段。自营门店与加盟网络，更像是服务于这一目标的基础设施。</strong></p><p>一个很好的例证是，无人零售战略发布后多家机构表示看好：比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在近日的一份报告中重申了对于瑞幸的积极评级，并指出得益于核心门店的复苏和无人零售战略的实施，瑞幸咖啡会在2020 年的第三季度实现盈亏平衡，并在 2021 年实现全面盈利。</p><p>而泽菲咨询则在重申瑞幸的买入评级，将目标价定在49 美元的同时，指出了其无人战略具有前瞻性，肯定其会为消费者带来的便利性和对于成本的改善。</p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><strong>总结</strong></p><p>从大洋彼岸的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>，到身边的美团点评，其实都有很长一段时间不被外界看懂的阶段，如今的瑞幸亦是如此。在我看来的，瑞幸正进入一个最为关键的阶段：<strong>建立线下高频流量入口。</strong></p><p>比如被资本市场认可并热捧的美团，外卖便是其线下高频流量入口，并将其导入到生态中的到店、酒店/民宿、机票等业务，通过留存挖掘更大的用户价值。</p><p>这其中，核心在于通过技术与数字化能力将效率提升到极致，进而为低毛利形成极高壁垒。</p><p>对于瑞幸而言亦是如此，门店+无人零售形成的深入到毛细血管般的网络，正发挥着以规模价值降低成本，以大数据降本增效的作用。微利的咖啡聚集起一个庞大的“流量池”之后，瑞幸再卖点啥或许都不奇怪了。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞幸的军刀，星巴克的旗杆</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞幸的军刀，星巴克的旗杆\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-02-18 09:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20200218093021791218d3&s=b><strong>投资界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“咖啡可以喝了”“给我搞一杯”2月12日，傍晚六点二十分，武汉六七二医院内部微信群，一段与“战疫”紧张气氛不太搭的对话流传到网上，对话框中还有一张照片：屏幕上显示着：“正在为您制作中，请稍等……”瑞幸的无人咖啡机到武汉医院了。这个画风可能有些奇怪，我稍微解释一下，武汉疫情发生之后，考虑到城市门店关闭，一线的医生又很忙，在总部资源的全力支持下，瑞幸在武汉的4名一线员工，花了5天时间，将一台四百斤的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20200218093021791218d3&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17f8ff805c8db4ac082e079328ed9eb","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克","LK":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20200218093021791218d3&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2012700506","content_text":"“咖啡可以喝了”“给我搞一杯”2月12日，傍晚六点二十分，武汉六七二医院内部微信群，一段与“战疫”紧张气氛不太搭的对话流传到网上，对话框中还有一张照片：屏幕上显示着：“正在为您制作中，请稍等……”瑞幸的无人咖啡机到武汉医院了。这个画风可能有些奇怪，我稍微解释一下，武汉疫情发生之后，考虑到城市门店关闭，一线的医生又很忙，在总部资源的全力支持下，瑞幸在武汉的4名一线员工，花了5天时间，将一台四百斤的大家伙和原料弄进了医院，免费让医务人员喝上了热腾腾的现磨咖啡。而这个无人咖啡机，正是一个多月前瑞幸刚刚发布的无人零售终端之一“瑞即购”无人咖啡机。把“瑞即购”无人咖啡机搬进医院，既贡献了企业的一份心意，又解决了医生喝咖啡的需求，同时无人工参与、无接触的流程又杜绝了病毒接触的风险，这招可以说很机智。有杠精可能要问了，疫情这么严重，瑞幸就捐咖啡机吗？其实不是，疫情发生后，瑞幸捐了1000万，并且向全国抗击疫情的一线医院开放了“瑞即购”的免费申领。当然，瑞幸的老朋友星巴克也捐了300万，外加800多箱星倍醇等罐装咖啡饮品。咖啡既能提神，也是镇定和安抚情绪的代名词——在很多末日生存的游戏设定里，一杯咖啡就能恢复主角的精神、精力以及状态。不过这次疫情下，两家的差距其实已经开始显现了——星巴克中规中矩，而瑞幸已经开始玩起了数字化和技术，把无人零售的热咖啡送到医院，这背后其实两种观念的折射——星巴克依然固守它的第三空间理论，而瑞幸从咖啡起家，推出小鹿茶后，今年又宣布切入无人零售领域，换句话说，两家不论从产品形态、商业模式以及用户场景上，都有巨大的区别，这也是为什么我说，从一台无人咖啡机背后，能看出瑞幸和星巴克已经越走越远了。01瑞幸的“灵活身段”说实话，瑞幸和星巴克都挺惨的。这次疫情对全行业来说是个AOE，而首当其冲的就是线下的消费，无论是上游的供应、物流、还是下游的制作，消费，餐饮零售行业都大量依赖于人力协作，这意味着疫情带来的影响其实是作用于供需两端的，很难通过“硬抗”改善。一个明显的例子就是瑞幸从1月23日起暂停了武汉地区全部门店营业。而总是被外界视为瑞幸“对手”的星巴克则是在宣布湖北省内暂停营业后，又临时关闭了在中国超过一半的门店。当然还有“现金流扛不过 3 个月”的西贝，“天一亮就要支付 250 万元”的外婆家，港股上市不到一个月就蒸发了 30 亿港元市值的九毛九，内地所有门店暂停营业的海底捞……而瑞幸的灵活和牛逼之处在于，一个月前发布的产品，也就是无人咖啡机和无人售卖机，能够在这么短的时间内落地到一线医院，敏锐度和执行力以及背后的供应链值得学习；其次是从战略层面看，瑞幸通过瑞幸咖啡和小鹿茶占领了大量线下门店后，又推出无人零售战略，继续抢占新的场景。而疫情的爆发，使得用户对非接触消费的需求激增——这对无人零售来说正是非常好的培育市场和用户的机会，因此即便是门店受损，但用户心智和消费习惯却由此建立起来了。再多说一句，不是作秀，咖啡对于普通脑力工作者尤其是一线的医生来说，真的是刚需。要知道，哪怕在平常，工作的特殊性早已使得咖啡被医务人员用于“续命”。工作时间和强度的暴涨，更使咖啡因的需求大大提升，不少咖啡店都以外卖形式参与其中。但外卖始终有其弊端。一方面，制作、外送的过程涉及到多个人工环节，感染风险始终存在；另一方面，特殊时期医务人员日夜颠倒、随时响应的特征，很难保证及时送达。接到多家医院的援助请求后，瑞幸决定将无人咖啡机“瑞即购”搬进医院以解燃眉之急。而在医务人员端起第一杯加浓焦糖美式的4天前，瑞幸的行动进度都还近乎为0。在总部与一线4位员工的支持下，瑞幸不仅让 IT团队两天开发完成免费版系统，更协调了农夫山泉武汉总仓取水，荣庆物流保供货车运输原材料，顺丰通过特殊物资方式从上海寄来杯子……在配齐充足原料的同时，全国各地的无人咖啡机、原材料都在向武汉集结，海外供应商也开始加速生产和配送；配合与院方建立的培训通道和支援小组，为后续落地中的医院提供持续保障。目前，“瑞即购”已经面向全国三甲医院开启快速申领通道，在疫情完全结束前为医护人员免费提供咖啡饮品。短短五天，瑞幸就在疫情导致的停摆之中，将无人咖啡机投入到了一线，并打磨出了全套的执行方案，效率之高，恐怕还是得益于背后灵活的组织架构和商业模式。02瑞幸的军刀，星巴克的旗杆稍微梳理一下近期瑞幸的动向，不难发现“瑞即购”和“瑞划算”并不是专为疫情而准备，二者都是瑞幸“无人零售战略”旗下的无人零售终端，这一战略的公布不过是今年 1月8日的事。战略亮相并不久，但背后已是长线布局。钱治亚透露，瑞幸一年前就开始研发无人咖啡机，如今已是第二代。作为国内最豪华、最贵的无人咖啡机，“瑞即购”能达到与门店一致的口感和品质。与门店相同的瑞士进口Schaerer全自动咖啡机，优于市面上两三万元的咖啡机；相同的获得IIAC金奖的咖啡豆，以及新西兰恒天然旗下安佳纯牛奶，与市面上的咖啡粉与奶精区别开来。此外，每台“瑞即购”机器上都配了智能物联网系统，监控咖啡机运行状况与每杯咖啡出品，以保证所有咖啡都能保持和瑞幸门店同样的出品品质。不难看出，瑞幸为了保证无人零售设备出品能与门店保持同一水准，在研发出品、原料供应、数据采集与分析等上游环节进行了大量打磨的工作，这使其能够迅速被部署于“战疫”一线。即将和“瑞即购”一起进入抗疫一线的瑞幸无人售卖机“瑞划算”，也充分印证了瑞幸在供应链和产品能力上的优势。针对疫情，“瑞划算”在饮品零食等日常补给外，还增加了消毒湿巾、酒精喷雾和棉片、免洗洗手液、消毒泡腾片等健康防疫用品。在瑞幸大举向数字化和技术迈进的时候，星巴克则依然固守着他的第三空间理论。这里有必要提一下星巴克引以为傲的“第三空间”理论。简单来说，家庭居住空间为第一空间，职场为第二空间，而城市的酒吧、咖啡店、博物馆、图书馆、公园等公共空间为第三空间。从很早开始，星巴克的门店设计就开始为营造一个“第三空间”的氛围服务，并有意开始打造星巴克自己的社区文化。这也让星巴克的门店设计成为零售业的经典案例。馥郁的咖啡香气、舒缓的音乐、柔和的灯光、舒服的沙发，这就是星巴克所努力打造的标签。舒尔茨就曾在自传《一路向前》中喊出“让三明治滚出星巴克”。原因就是这会影响星巴克店内浓郁的咖啡香气，并让星巴克“专注咖啡”的品牌形象不纯粹。星巴克粉丝非常愿意分享的这种故事：长期在一家星巴克消费，与伙伴成为朋友后，自己的口味被伙伴摸得一清二楚，点单时一个眼神就行。不时还能体验一下好豆子和隐藏菜单。但星巴克却忽略了数字化和移动化所带来的消费和场景的变化。比如在美国，咖啡外带的比例已经达到80%~90%，亚洲咖啡消费大国日本在上世纪 90 年代开始，全自动咖啡贩卖机已经逐渐普及；而瑞幸最新数据显示，七成用户也是选择了外带。另外，星巴克作为连锁咖啡，本就从未聚集起“品质需求型”用户，只是抓住了“功能需求型”的白领用户。在质量处于同一水准的瑞幸出现后，星巴克自然会在潜力更大的外带市场落于下风。我们在之前的一篇文章中就提到过，此前星巴克宣布订单和会员体系全面接入饿了么、盒马、淘宝等平台后其实已经说明了一件事，那就是星巴克已经放弃了平台入口，甘愿做一个咖啡供应商。眼见着自己的app逐渐沦为鸡肋，而瑞幸则借助瑞幸咖啡和小鹿茶积累的交易用户数已突破 4000 万，现在同样是捐助，自己捐的是灌装咖啡，瑞幸则是直接捐手机扫码就能下单的无人咖啡机，并且还是全国联网数据互通，如果我是星巴克的CEO，我也着急。所以，为什么说瑞幸与星巴克们的比拼已经不在同一维度，因为对于几十年跑完欧洲上百年历史的中国市场而言，外带服务能力已经成为竞争胜负手，而这背后更是技术与数字化能力的比拼。瑞幸像一把挥舞的军刀，披荆斩棘，而星巴克则像一个旗杆立在那，岁月静好。外带体验的核心是什么？是保证用户既不用等候，又能享受适宜温度的确定性。这意味着，覆盖的密度与广度、饮品制作的标准化与流程化、原材料供应配送的即时性……都有着更高的要求。这也就解释了为何在门店达到4507家后，瑞幸才发布了无人零售战略，因为咖啡店并不是瑞幸的目的，将咖啡甚至于更多商品卖到更多场景才是，“瑞即购”和“瑞划算”则是其重要的一环。战“疫”只是一个特殊场景，却能看出背后的路线之争。03平台、中枢和基础设施接上文之前，有必要引入一个案例。数年前，马斯克还被外界视为一个资本市场投机者。因为他连续创立SolarCity、SpaceX、特斯拉三家公司，并投资一连串看似不着边际的科技公司的做法，属于典型的“不务正业”。但这其实是马斯克将“殖民火星”构想进行了一步步拆分：火星没有氧气，内燃机无法工作，于是创办了电动车企业特斯拉；特斯拉需要电脑，但火星更没有水，不可能化石能源发电，于是创办太阳能技术企业 SolarCity；而人和这一切设备还需要运输到火星，于是有了SpaceX。将一个宏伟目标拆分为多个环节，从其中一个环节入手，进行资金与技术的储备，然后不断以此类推到下一阶段，最终实现终极目标。这便是被不少投行大佬推崇的“第一性原理”。带着这一视角回顾如今的瑞幸，其实就很容易看懂了。我们从瑞幸的终极目标入手，它只是想卖咖啡吗？显然不是，钱治亚将其描述为一个“自有流量+自有产品的智慧零售平台”。在这样一个宏伟的目标之下，有着潜力大、增速快、现有价格、品质结构不合理、品牌选择不足等特点的中国咖啡市场，显然作为一个很好的抓手被瑞幸选中了。针对市场特点，瑞幸必然要以性价比和效率作为切入点进行突围。为什么能将消费行为全部归口到瑞幸App？因为只有线上化才能迅速积累精准的大数据；为什么能疯狂进行大规模开店？一来，只有建立足够高的网点密度，才能保证极高的效率；二来，通过App、设备物联网积累的精准大数据，能为研发、选址、备料、招聘等全链条提供指导，小鹿茶的诞生亦是如此。为什么要推无人零售？一方面，这是咖啡进入“无限场景”的刚需；另一方面，自营4507 家瑞幸咖啡和小鹿茶合伙人加盟网络本质就是一个成熟的支撑体系。人力方面，只需要对原有店员做一些简单培训，就能对无人咖啡机进行维护，避免了上一代无人咖啡机专职管理人员，不得不面对的效率成本难两全的死穴；仓储方面，每一个门店更能兼有前置仓的职能，实现了提效降本。最关键的是，在线上预约下单流程打通，机器实现了与门店相同品质的前提下，无人零售能凭借远低于门店的成本，打进了更多写字楼、商场等场景，触达更多以往无法覆盖的潜在消费。可以下一个结论：无人零售不是瑞幸“穷途末路”需要新故事来“忽悠”投资者，而是向着既定的目标进入了下一个阶段。自营门店与加盟网络，更像是服务于这一目标的基础设施。一个很好的例证是，无人零售战略发布后多家机构表示看好：比如摩根士丹利在近日的一份报告中重申了对于瑞幸的积极评级，并指出得益于核心门店的复苏和无人零售战略的实施，瑞幸咖啡会在2020 年的第三季度实现盈亏平衡，并在 2021 年实现全面盈利。而泽菲咨询则在重申瑞幸的买入评级，将目标价定在49 美元的同时，指出了其无人战略具有前瞻性，肯定其会为消费者带来的便利性和对于成本的改善。04总结从大洋彼岸的亚马逊，到身边的美团点评，其实都有很长一段时间不被外界看懂的阶段，如今的瑞幸亦是如此。在我看来的，瑞幸正进入一个最为关键的阶段：建立线下高频流量入口。比如被资本市场认可并热捧的美团，外卖便是其线下高频流量入口，并将其导入到生态中的到店、酒店/民宿、机票等业务，通过留存挖掘更大的用户价值。这其中，核心在于通过技术与数字化能力将效率提升到极致，进而为低毛利形成极高壁垒。对于瑞幸而言亦是如此，门店+无人零售形成的深入到毛细血管般的网络，正发挥着以规模价值降低成本，以大数据降本增效的作用。微利的咖啡聚集起一个庞大的“流量池”之后，瑞幸再卖点啥或许都不奇怪了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":914292900,"gmtCreate":1581343994300,"gmtModify":1704343872056,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>今天在APP观察瑞幸门店，湖北自然全部歇业。然后南京、上海、北京，只开了1-2家偏远区的店，亏死了吧，陆骗子和钱骗子，钱都不够你们烧的，哈哈哈哈哈","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$</a>没量了，庄家要割腕逃跑了","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$没量了，庄家要割腕逃跑了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/914642941","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":915504840,"gmtCreate":1580860729180,"gmtModify":1704342638878,"author":{"id":"3435375058332778","authorId":"3435375058332778","name":"股神1975在2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f27d8674c5973538427fe4204f3bcf","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"做B梦","listText":"做B梦","text":"做B梦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/915504840","repostId":"2009527474","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2009527474","pubTimestamp":1580848740,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2009527474?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-05 04:39","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"香橼资本：利空消息过后瑞幸咖啡股价或将翻番","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2009527474","media":"新浪美股","summary":"查看最新行情\n\n\n\n\n　　北京时间2月4日消息，对冲基金香橼资本（Citron Capital）的Andrew Left表示，瑞幸咖啡在克服了冠状病毒爆发的负面影响以及对其股票的广泛看跌押注后，其股价","content":"<html><body><div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/newchart/png/min/us/LK.png\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n查看最新行情\n</div>\n</div>\n</div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/225/w550h475/20200205/f3b5-inzcrxs4370173.jpg\"/><span></span></div>\n<p>　　北京时间2月4日消息，对冲基金香橼资本（Citron Capital）的Andrew Left表示，<span>瑞幸</span><span></span>咖啡在克服了冠状病毒爆发的负面影响以及对其股票的广泛看跌押注后，其股价可能会翻番。</p>\n<p>　　Left表示，一旦冠状病毒的不确定性消除后，<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a></span><span></span>股价最终可能会达到60美元。瑞幸咖啡最近被迫暂时关闭了位于武汉的约200家门店。</p>\n<p>　　此前做空机构浑水（Muddy Waters）表示将做空瑞幸咖啡，导致该公司股价在上周五暴跌27%。瑞幸咖啡随后否认了所有指控。</p>\n<p>　　Left表示，在对瑞幸咖啡的业务进行分析、与利益相关者和竞争对手进行商讨并查看该公司付款数据之后，他决定持有瑞幸咖啡头寸。Left称：“我认为看空报告是不正确的。”</p>\n<p>　　金融分析公司S3 Partners的数据显示，瑞幸咖啡约有30%的可售股票被卖空，这些看跌期权的价值为9.51亿美元。</p>\n<p>　　Needham在周二的一份报告中表示，由于冠状病毒的传播，关闭门店等措施限制了瑞幸咖啡一季度的业绩。尽管如此，该公司仍将瑞幸咖啡的目标价格从27美元上调至40美元，理由是对该公司“新的无人零售和茶叶伙店计划”感到乐观。</p>\n<p>　　瑞幸咖啡股价周二大涨16%，现报<span>36.46</span>美元。</p>\n<p>责任编辑：张玉洁 SF107</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>香橼资本：利空消息过后瑞幸咖啡股价或将翻番</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n香橼资本：利空消息过后瑞幸咖啡股价或将翻番\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-02-05 04:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-02-05/doc-iimxyqvz0340609.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>查看最新行情\n\n\n\n\n　　北京时间2月4日消息，对冲基金香橼资本（Citron Capital）的Andrew Left表示，瑞幸咖啡在克服了冠状病毒爆发的负面影响以及对其股票的广泛看跌押注后，其股价可能会翻番。\n　　Left表示，一旦冠状病毒的不确定性消除后，瑞幸咖啡股价最终可能会达到60美元。瑞幸咖啡最近被迫暂时关闭了位于武汉的约200家门店。\n　　此前做空机构浑水（Muddy Waters）...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-02-05/doc-iimxyqvz0340609.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bc554492a6ac75a506826b968cfb2f","relate_stocks":{"LK":"瑞幸咖啡"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2020-02-05/doc-iimxyqvz0340609.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2009527474","content_text":"查看最新行情\n\n\n\n\n　　北京时间2月4日消息，对冲基金香橼资本（Citron Capital）的Andrew Left表示，瑞幸咖啡在克服了冠状病毒爆发的负面影响以及对其股票的广泛看跌押注后，其股价可能会翻番。\n　　Left表示，一旦冠状病毒的不确定性消除后，瑞幸咖啡股价最终可能会达到60美元。瑞幸咖啡最近被迫暂时关闭了位于武汉的约200家门店。\n　　此前做空机构浑水（Muddy Waters）表示将做空瑞幸咖啡，导致该公司股价在上周五暴跌27%。瑞幸咖啡随后否认了所有指控。\n　　Left表示，在对瑞幸咖啡的业务进行分析、与利益相关者和竞争对手进行商讨并查看该公司付款数据之后，他决定持有瑞幸咖啡头寸。Left称：“我认为看空报告是不正确的。”\n　　金融分析公司S3 Partners的数据显示，瑞幸咖啡约有30%的可售股票被卖空，这些看跌期权的价值为9.51亿美元。\n　　Needham在周二的一份报告中表示，由于冠状病毒的传播，关闭门店等措施限制了瑞幸咖啡一季度的业绩。尽管如此，该公司仍将瑞幸咖啡的目标价格从27美元上调至40美元，理由是对该公司“新的无人零售和茶叶伙店计划”感到乐观。\n　　瑞幸咖啡股价周二大涨16%，现报36.46美元。\n责任编辑：张玉洁 SF107","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}