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温小九
12-23 18:12
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
特斯拉之所以热度高,不就是因为本身的波动性么!三连跌不能说明什么,属于正常操作,上车应该没问题。
温小九
12-20
很正常啊,都有一个身份是商人!小扎、库克不也都去见了懂王么
温小九
12-09
应该不太可能
温小九
12-04
很多朋友都在纳闷,
$T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTU)$
为啥掉的时候蹭蹭往下走,涨的时候又不完全是两倍,看看REX的持仓就知道了,为了履责并实现高回报,买了
$MicroStrategy(MSTR)$
的看涨期权
[捂脸]
温小九
11-27
它不来回波动,债主咋挣钱,横盘就麻烦了
温小九
11-20
会强平至风控线以下
温小九
11-20
强平至10手
温小九
10-29
当然是
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
温小九
08-30
看不清市场,就别瞎折腾
温小九
06-13
她疯了[汗颜]
木头姐预测:2029年特斯拉股价将达2600美元,市值8.2万亿美元
温小九
05-01
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
十年
温小九
04-19
做好止损,及时止盈,没毛病啦
温小九
04-12
$英伟达(NVDA)$
MA5、MA10出现拐点,看今天是否能够站稳
温小九
04-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$谷歌(GOOG)$
$奈飞(NFLX)$
温小九
04-07
$美光科技(MU)$
温小九
04-07
一样都没有🙂↔️
温小九
04-02
$英伟达(NVDA)$
真看不懂了
温小九
03-30
赚不赚到钱💰这是个好问题 看清趋势,乘势而为,基本上算是赚到了
温小九
03-29
以我的美股历程,给准新手的建议
首先说明,我不是啥大V,也不是职业股民,更不是啥专业分析师,就是一介草民,想着在股市里刨点儿食儿吃。对于纵横美股多年的牛人来说,可能我这点儿收益率不算啥,但对于我这啥基础也没有而且资金有限的初级玩家,这个收益率我还是比较满意的,毕竟这是我对于美股,尤其是对于期权从无到有的一个过程,而这整个过程有失败有成功,有痛苦有快乐,总结的不对的地方,请各路大神指正[微笑] 第一次接触美股是在2015年,在DriveWealth开的户,当时投入的资金2000,买入的第一只股票是
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
,价位大概1.9,因为是初次接触,而且对美股不甚了解,拿到4.00左右就抛了,这算是美股的第一笔收益。后来因为DriveWealth平台体验不好,兜兜转转,转户到过Firstrade,到了2018年注册了老虎,又从Firstrade转户到老虎,入金3000后,还是
$美国超微公司(AMD)$
,从20.34进,到55.02最终出清(现在看来还是意志不坚定哈)。 2018年3月-2020年6月收益变化 从2020年6月到2022年8月,账户一直无操作,只有一些零钱和碎股,别问为啥,我也不知道当时咋想的,反正是没行动。 2022年8月又开始入金操作,这回就不是很顺了,正应了那句老话:一瓶子不满,半瓶子晃荡!我干了啥?对,期权!而且是自以为是的去交易期权,在连期权的基本原理都不清楚,什么基础都没有的情况下就下场去交易,想着一夜暴富,结果呢,当然是一地鸡毛[喷血] 2022年8月-2022年12月收益变化 我不否认“投资靠股票,赚钱还得靠期权”,这话说的没错,但是工欲善其事必先利其器,经历了2022年近半年的失利,我静下来总结了自己过往的交
以我的美股历程,给准新手的建议
温小九
03-28
$英伟达(NVDA)$
理性看多,适度买入,适时止盈止损
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","listText":"她疯了[汗颜] ","text":"她疯了[汗颜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316342895784104","repostId":"2443543922","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2443543922","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1718243779,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2443543922?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-13 09:56","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"木头姐预测:2029年特斯拉股价将达2600美元,市值8.2万亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2443543922","media":"瓦砾村夫","summary":"我们把木头姐历年对于特斯拉的股价预测整理在一起,方便对比。ARK估计,到2029年,特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务,如下图所示。因此,特斯拉应该能够证明其robotaxi网络具有卓越的、具有统计意义的安全指标,并获得监管部门的批准。假设Optimus能够承担特斯拉10-20%的工时,且生产率等于或两倍于人类同行,那么到2029年,Optimus将为特斯拉节省30-40亿美元,或1-2%的生产成本。如果决定对外销售Optimus,特斯拉可以在这个数万亿美元的市场中占据相当大","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>ARK预计特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务,并估计到2029年特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务。此外研究表明,FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍,比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍。</p></blockquote><p>北京时间12日晚,木头姐的方舟投资公司(ARK Invest)公布了最新的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>目标价及研报,这次依然是一个长线预测——五年之后的2029。我们把木头姐历年对于特斯拉的股价预测整理在一起,方便对比。最后一行是本次的最新预测。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/769b2fb85cec4890e0fd79cbfa275c1f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"243\"/></p><p>在这份研报发布前,埃隆已经急不可待的拿着小板凳前排就坐,期待第一时间阅读了:</p><blockquote><p>“我很想读读这份报告。我对robotaxi和人形<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>思考的越多,估值就越荒谬。”</p><p>“他们(注:指方舟)一直是特斯拉价值最准确的预测者。”</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35ea43f18f1a455713c120ee11b8ccdc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"408\"/></p><p>研报发布后,埃隆评论:“极其有挑战,但可以实现。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6c840f9b4f312b51769145145f67275\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"927\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p>我们就跟着埃隆一起,仔细来读读木头姐的研报。以下是老瓦的全文翻译。研报作者为Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus, Daniel Maguire.</p><h2 id=\"id_1704046266\">综述</h2><p><strong>ARK更新后的开源特斯拉模型得出,2029年每股预期价格为2600美元。</strong>如下图所示,乐观和悲观的蒙特卡罗模拟结果分别为第75百分位数和第25百分位数,股价分别约为3100美元和2000美元。本研报介绍了ARK的开源特斯拉模型,这个模型结合了45个独立输入的分布,模拟了特斯拉公司及其股票的一系列潜在结果。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d97f8cc529fde741c200f32f3eabe448\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"242\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96e0d747ba4690b6067aa5c3a811d258\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"921\" tg-height=\"676\"/></p><p><strong>ARK估计,到2029年,特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务</strong>,如下图所示。同时,电动汽车可能只占特斯拉总销售额的四分之一,及特斯拉盈利潜力的10%,因为我们认为robotaxi业务的利润率要高得多。下图按业务线细分了营收、息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)和市值。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38627971df52c95c7aa525f6a607f1f8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"557\"/></p><p><em>绿:电动汽车;蓝:robotaxi;深灰:固定储能;黑:人工驾驶的出行服务;灰:保险</em></p><p>本文分为四个部分:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>悲观和乐观结果示例</p></li><li><p>对于ARK2023年特斯拉模型的更新</p></li><li><p>未纳入模型的商业机会</p></li><li><p>我们模型的风险和局限性</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_4092081209\">悲观和乐观结果示例</h2><p>我们没有提供单独的乐观或悲观建模,因为我们将这两个结果视为模拟结果的第75百分位数和第25百分位数。不过,下表列出了两种情况下的合理预测。</p><p><strong>悲观和乐观结果示例</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b7ad75a3e50459f29840ac0b5027326\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p>*注:“悲观”和“乐观”示例中,总息税折旧摊销前利润率和总毛利率的相似性反映了我们对两种情况下最合理的经济学观点。在悲观情况下,特斯拉的规模化程度没那么高,可以在较高的价位上维持更长时间,这有利于其利润结构。在乐观情况下,特斯拉电动汽车业务的毛利率和息税折旧摊销前利润率下降,因为它向价格较低的汽车细分市场销售,但能被占利润比例较大的打车业务抵消一部分。</p><h2 id=\"id_3680378521\">对于ARK2023年特斯拉模型的更新</h2><p>对于ARK2023年特斯拉开源模型的更新包括</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>更新了自动驾驶的假设</p></li><li><p>更新了特斯拉生产制造的增长率</p></li><li><p>2029年模型对于一些并非我们价格估算的主要驱动因素的考虑</p></li></ul><p><strong>更新了自动驾驶的假设</strong></p><p>我们认为,<strong>特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务</strong>,如下图所示,特斯拉在五年内未能推出robotaxi服务的可能性微乎其微。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfc2d7474d46e70c2b1e15f559b6fca8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"657\"/></p><p><em>ARK模拟计算得出特斯拉首次推出robotaxi服务的不同年份的概率估算</em></p><p>虽然可能性不大,但如果我们从模型中排除robotaxi网络的可能性,我们的目标价格将为350美元左右。需要注意的是,在robotaxi没有推出的情况下,正如我们之前所分析的那样,特斯拉可能会出于战略和战术原因,推出人工驾驶的出行服务。</p><p>从建模的角度来看,我们之前估计特斯拉的收入分成约为40-60%,高于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>的约20-30%。今年,我们对分析进行了微调,加入了以下假设:特斯拉最初将拥有并运营其车辆网络,在最初一到三年内保留所有营收。在此后的几年里,我们假设第三方公司将拥有并维护车队,每英里可获得约0.20 美元的服务营收,而剩余的每英里营收则归特斯拉所有。事实上,在这个模式的最后一年,特斯拉的平均分成约为 80%。与此同时,我们将首次推出robotaxi服务的中值预期修改为2025年底。</p><p>虽然我们将特斯拉robotaxi服务的中值预期推出日期推迟了一年,但我们仍然相信这项服务将在未来五年内推出。随着FSD v12版本的发布,特斯拉过渡到了从视频数据中学习并直接控制车辆的神经网络,从而消除了30多万行人工代码。通过利用特斯拉巨大的数据优势(目前FSD累计行驶里程已超过13亿英里),这一更新实现了类似于人类的——在某些情况下是零干预的驾驶。根据我们的研究,特斯拉积累数据的速度是Waymo的110倍,如下图所示。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10fe1ae3533c5574261f7a5abbb6d024\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"685\"/></p><p><em>积累驾驶里程的速度,单位:百万英里/每年。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a> vs Waymo vs 特斯拉 vs Cruise</em></p><p>此外,<strong>我们的研究表明,FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍,比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍</strong>,如下图所示。不再受人工智能训练算力的限制之后,特斯拉加速的软件更新正在提高性能和安全性。因此,特斯拉应该能够证明其robotaxi网络具有卓越的、具有统计意义的安全指标,并获得监管部门的批准。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae889b8d4190560ca9f086377586121\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"909\" tg-height=\"672\"/></p><p><em>仅在城市街道中,每次碰撞事故的间隔里程(单位:千英里)。特斯拉FSD模式(2023年)vs 特斯拉人工驾驶模式(2022年,ARK修正)vs Waymo(2023年,公司修正)vs 全美平均(2022年,ARK修正)vs Cruise (2023年,公司修正)</em></p><p>特斯拉计划在2024年8月发布robotaxi专用车辆。虽然特斯拉可以将其现有车队改造成robotaxi,但我们认为,定制化的CyberCab反映出特斯拉对其自动驾驶软件将使特斯拉扩大robotaxi业务规模的信心增强了。同时,FSD在北美的30天免费试用增加了特斯拉的数据库,据传特斯拉将很快在中国推出FSD。最后,特斯拉在最新财报中公布了出行app的效果图,这预示着这一商业模式的发布,而且可能会首先推出人类司机,为机器人司机铺平道路。我们对特斯拉在未来五年内推出robotaxi网络的能力信心大增。因此,随着每辆汽车都成为人工智能驱动的现金流生成机器,特斯拉的商业模式应该从一次性汽车销售转变为经常性收入基础。</p><p><strong>更新了特斯拉生产制造的增长率</strong></p><p>在我们的预期价格例子中,2024年是持平略增长的一年,之后到2029年底,汽车产量每年增长45%。在今年之后,我们预计特斯拉的规模扩张能力将取决于管理带宽和特斯拉开设新工厂的能力。随着产量从现在的每年180万辆增加到每年600万到1600万辆,大数法则应该会导致增长率降低。robotaxi可能会通过简化车辆设计来缓解生产规模的扩大,并通过高现金流生成能力的出行服务产生额外的资本。我们还预计,大多数robotaxi将出售给车队所有者,而不是个人,这有可能简化销售渠道。</p><p><strong>2029年模型对于一些并非我们价格估算的主要驱动因素的考虑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Optimus</p></li></ul><p>我们认为Optimus对我们的目标价格影响甚微。在未来十年,我们预计特斯拉将成为在物理空间移动的机器人的领先制造商和服务提供商,因为它将有机会利用从robotaxi学习到的知识、自研的推理芯片、训练算力和生产规模。特斯拉预计Optimus将在今年年底前完成有用的工厂任务。假设Optimus能够承担特斯拉10-20%的工时,且生产率等于或两倍于人类同行,那么到2029年,Optimus将为特斯拉节省30-40亿美元,或1-2%的生产成本。</p><p>我们的研究表明,通用人形机器人代表着约24万亿美元全球规模的收入机会,其中约50%在制造业。如果决定对外销售Optimus,特斯拉可以在这个数万亿美元的市场中占据相当大的份额,尽管有意义的商业化增长可能会发生在本模型所覆盖的五年之后。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>固定储能</p></li></ul><p>我们估计,特斯拉的固定储能增长速度将超过汽车的增长速度,到2029年可增长至约850吉瓦时的能量。但是,如果电池成为限制因素,特斯拉可能会优先考虑robotaxi,以获得更高的投资回报,如下图所示。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa947d0b5f9b8d13170dae85aaed8ffc\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"682\"/></p><p><em>2029年预期价格例子中,平均每千瓦时电池的部署带来的息税前利润(EBIT),固定储能 vs 电动汽车 vs 电动汽车用于出行 vs 电动汽车用于robotaxi</em></p><h2 id=\"id_2122889387\">未纳入模型的商业机会</h2><ul style=\"\"><li><p>特斯拉Semi</p></li></ul><p><strong>特斯拉计划在2026年实现Semi的商业化。我们认为,特斯拉Semi不会在我们的五年投资期限内对特斯拉的价值做出重大贡献。</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>超充网络</p></li></ul><p>今年,在福特和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>公司(BP)等合作伙伴的支持下,特斯拉将其技术巩固成为了北美充电标准。根据ARK的研究,超级充电站虽然对电动汽车至关重要,但不太可能为特斯拉带来可观的收入。即使超级充电站网络继续以目前的速度增长,其利用率从平均约11%提高到加油站的约34%,与特斯拉robotaxi业务的规模相比,它对我们目标价格的财务影响也是微不足道的。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>FSD许可</p></li></ul><p>特斯拉目前正在讨论将其FSD软件许可给一家汽车制造商的事宜。虽然这对特斯拉来说可能是一件大事,但根据传统汽车行业从设计到生产的时间表,非特斯拉公司的配备FSD的汽车可能要在数年后才会亮相。</p><p>即便如此,就如在线升级(OTA)一样,汽车制造商可能会在部分车型上试用FSD,或许会优先考虑电动传动系统——最近,其在传统汽车生产计划上有所落后。我们的研究表明,在未来五年内,FSD许可不太可能影响特斯拉的收入或盈利。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>人工智能服务(AI-As-A-Service)</p></li></ul><p>特斯拉提供分布式人工智能推理服务(AI-inference-as-a-service, IaaS)和Dojo训练服务(training-as-a-service)的计划可能超出了我们的五年投资期限。虽然将分布式人工智能推理服务整合到个人拥有的车辆中可能会带来一些挑战,如不稳定的Wi-Fi连接和停车期间的调度瓶颈,但robotaxi车队可以解决其中的一些问题。专用的充电基础设施和稳定的互联网接入,再加上可靠的车辆行驶时间安排,可以形成一个支持人工智能IaaS服务的组织结构。</p><p>尽管特斯拉管理层在2024年1月的一季度财报电话会议上淡化了Dojo的工作,但特斯拉已于今年开始生产下一代Dojo芯片瓦,这表明其工作取得了进展。Dojo可能会成为特斯拉内部算力的重要贡献者,但与去年类似,我们预计Dojo的外部使用不会在未来五年内对特斯拉的价值做出有意义的贡献。</p><h2 id=\"id_2933594645\">蒙特卡洛模型的风险和局限性</h2><p>ARK的45个独立变量,涵盖了我们认为特斯拉未来五年可能出现的各种情况。埃隆·马斯克突然离开公司、自然灾害或大流行病等意外事件可能会使这些结果大打折扣。</p><h2 id=\"id_1897377602\">结论</h2><p>综上所述,ARK的特斯拉目标价格为2029年每股2600美元。我们的悲观和乐观例子表明,2029年特斯拉的估值可能在每股2000美元到3100美元之间。我们已在GitHub上发布了我们的模拟模型,并邀请读者探索和测试假设和/或根据模拟创建可视化效果。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1649056886487","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>木头姐预测:2029年特斯拉股价将达2600美元,市值8.2万亿美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n木头姐预测:2029年特斯拉股价将达2600美元,市值8.2万亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-06-13 09:56 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/635yVJlYRV76k-Y31qryYA><strong>瓦砾村夫</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ARK预计特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务,并估计到2029年特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务。此外研究表明,FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍,比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍。北京时间12日晚,木头姐的方舟投资公司(ARK Invest)公布了最新的特斯拉目标价及研报,这次依然是一个长线预测——五年之后的2029。我们把木头姐历年对于特斯拉的股价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/635yVJlYRV76k-Y31qryYA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02aa1d39b690f855d602a8d705c8496d","relate_stocks":{"LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A(离岸)美元","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) 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\"A\" ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/635yVJlYRV76k-Y31qryYA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2443543922","content_text":"ARK预计特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务,并估计到2029年特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务。此外研究表明,FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍,比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍。北京时间12日晚,木头姐的方舟投资公司(ARK Invest)公布了最新的特斯拉目标价及研报,这次依然是一个长线预测——五年之后的2029。我们把木头姐历年对于特斯拉的股价预测整理在一起,方便对比。最后一行是本次的最新预测。在这份研报发布前,埃隆已经急不可待的拿着小板凳前排就坐,期待第一时间阅读了:“我很想读读这份报告。我对robotaxi和人形机器人思考的越多,估值就越荒谬。”“他们(注:指方舟)一直是特斯拉价值最准确的预测者。”研报发布后,埃隆评论:“极其有挑战,但可以实现。”我们就跟着埃隆一起,仔细来读读木头姐的研报。以下是老瓦的全文翻译。研报作者为Tasha Keeney, Sam Korus, Daniel Maguire.综述ARK更新后的开源特斯拉模型得出,2029年每股预期价格为2600美元。如下图所示,乐观和悲观的蒙特卡罗模拟结果分别为第75百分位数和第25百分位数,股价分别约为3100美元和2000美元。本研报介绍了ARK的开源特斯拉模型,这个模型结合了45个独立输入的分布,模拟了特斯拉公司及其股票的一系列潜在结果。ARK估计,到2029年,特斯拉近90%的市值和盈利将归功于robotaxi业务,如下图所示。同时,电动汽车可能只占特斯拉总销售额的四分之一,及特斯拉盈利潜力的10%,因为我们认为robotaxi业务的利润率要高得多。下图按业务线细分了营收、息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)和市值。绿:电动汽车;蓝:robotaxi;深灰:固定储能;黑:人工驾驶的出行服务;灰:保险本文分为四个部分:悲观和乐观结果示例对于ARK2023年特斯拉模型的更新未纳入模型的商业机会我们模型的风险和局限性悲观和乐观结果示例我们没有提供单独的乐观或悲观建模,因为我们将这两个结果视为模拟结果的第75百分位数和第25百分位数。不过,下表列出了两种情况下的合理预测。悲观和乐观结果示例*注:“悲观”和“乐观”示例中,总息税折旧摊销前利润率和总毛利率的相似性反映了我们对两种情况下最合理的经济学观点。在悲观情况下,特斯拉的规模化程度没那么高,可以在较高的价位上维持更长时间,这有利于其利润结构。在乐观情况下,特斯拉电动汽车业务的毛利率和息税折旧摊销前利润率下降,因为它向价格较低的汽车细分市场销售,但能被占利润比例较大的打车业务抵消一部分。对于ARK2023年特斯拉模型的更新对于ARK2023年特斯拉开源模型的更新包括更新了自动驾驶的假设更新了特斯拉生产制造的增长率2029年模型对于一些并非我们价格估算的主要驱动因素的考虑更新了自动驾驶的假设我们认为,特斯拉将在未来两年内推出robotaxi服务,如下图所示,特斯拉在五年内未能推出robotaxi服务的可能性微乎其微。ARK模拟计算得出特斯拉首次推出robotaxi服务的不同年份的概率估算虽然可能性不大,但如果我们从模型中排除robotaxi网络的可能性,我们的目标价格将为350美元左右。需要注意的是,在robotaxi没有推出的情况下,正如我们之前所分析的那样,特斯拉可能会出于战略和战术原因,推出人工驾驶的出行服务。从建模的角度来看,我们之前估计特斯拉的收入分成约为40-60%,高于优步的约20-30%。今年,我们对分析进行了微调,加入了以下假设:特斯拉最初将拥有并运营其车辆网络,在最初一到三年内保留所有营收。在此后的几年里,我们假设第三方公司将拥有并维护车队,每英里可获得约0.20 美元的服务营收,而剩余的每英里营收则归特斯拉所有。事实上,在这个模式的最后一年,特斯拉的平均分成约为 80%。与此同时,我们将首次推出robotaxi服务的中值预期修改为2025年底。虽然我们将特斯拉robotaxi服务的中值预期推出日期推迟了一年,但我们仍然相信这项服务将在未来五年内推出。随着FSD v12版本的发布,特斯拉过渡到了从视频数据中学习并直接控制车辆的神经网络,从而消除了30多万行人工代码。通过利用特斯拉巨大的数据优势(目前FSD累计行驶里程已超过13亿英里),这一更新实现了类似于人类的——在某些情况下是零干预的驾驶。根据我们的研究,特斯拉积累数据的速度是Waymo的110倍,如下图所示。积累驾驶里程的速度,单位:百万英里/每年。百度 vs Waymo vs 特斯拉 vs Cruise此外,我们的研究表明,FSD模式下的特斯拉比人类驾驶的特斯拉安全约5倍,比道路上的普通汽车安全约16倍,如下图所示。不再受人工智能训练算力的限制之后,特斯拉加速的软件更新正在提高性能和安全性。因此,特斯拉应该能够证明其robotaxi网络具有卓越的、具有统计意义的安全指标,并获得监管部门的批准。仅在城市街道中,每次碰撞事故的间隔里程(单位:千英里)。特斯拉FSD模式(2023年)vs 特斯拉人工驾驶模式(2022年,ARK修正)vs Waymo(2023年,公司修正)vs 全美平均(2022年,ARK修正)vs Cruise (2023年,公司修正)特斯拉计划在2024年8月发布robotaxi专用车辆。虽然特斯拉可以将其现有车队改造成robotaxi,但我们认为,定制化的CyberCab反映出特斯拉对其自动驾驶软件将使特斯拉扩大robotaxi业务规模的信心增强了。同时,FSD在北美的30天免费试用增加了特斯拉的数据库,据传特斯拉将很快在中国推出FSD。最后,特斯拉在最新财报中公布了出行app的效果图,这预示着这一商业模式的发布,而且可能会首先推出人类司机,为机器人司机铺平道路。我们对特斯拉在未来五年内推出robotaxi网络的能力信心大增。因此,随着每辆汽车都成为人工智能驱动的现金流生成机器,特斯拉的商业模式应该从一次性汽车销售转变为经常性收入基础。更新了特斯拉生产制造的增长率在我们的预期价格例子中,2024年是持平略增长的一年,之后到2029年底,汽车产量每年增长45%。在今年之后,我们预计特斯拉的规模扩张能力将取决于管理带宽和特斯拉开设新工厂的能力。随着产量从现在的每年180万辆增加到每年600万到1600万辆,大数法则应该会导致增长率降低。robotaxi可能会通过简化车辆设计来缓解生产规模的扩大,并通过高现金流生成能力的出行服务产生额外的资本。我们还预计,大多数robotaxi将出售给车队所有者,而不是个人,这有可能简化销售渠道。2029年模型对于一些并非我们价格估算的主要驱动因素的考虑Optimus我们认为Optimus对我们的目标价格影响甚微。在未来十年,我们预计特斯拉将成为在物理空间移动的机器人的领先制造商和服务提供商,因为它将有机会利用从robotaxi学习到的知识、自研的推理芯片、训练算力和生产规模。特斯拉预计Optimus将在今年年底前完成有用的工厂任务。假设Optimus能够承担特斯拉10-20%的工时,且生产率等于或两倍于人类同行,那么到2029年,Optimus将为特斯拉节省30-40亿美元,或1-2%的生产成本。我们的研究表明,通用人形机器人代表着约24万亿美元全球规模的收入机会,其中约50%在制造业。如果决定对外销售Optimus,特斯拉可以在这个数万亿美元的市场中占据相当大的份额,尽管有意义的商业化增长可能会发生在本模型所覆盖的五年之后。固定储能我们估计,特斯拉的固定储能增长速度将超过汽车的增长速度,到2029年可增长至约850吉瓦时的能量。但是,如果电池成为限制因素,特斯拉可能会优先考虑robotaxi,以获得更高的投资回报,如下图所示。2029年预期价格例子中,平均每千瓦时电池的部署带来的息税前利润(EBIT),固定储能 vs 电动汽车 vs 电动汽车用于出行 vs 电动汽车用于robotaxi未纳入模型的商业机会特斯拉Semi特斯拉计划在2026年实现Semi的商业化。我们认为,特斯拉Semi不会在我们的五年投资期限内对特斯拉的价值做出重大贡献。超充网络今年,在福特和通用汽车以及英国石油公司(BP)等合作伙伴的支持下,特斯拉将其技术巩固成为了北美充电标准。根据ARK的研究,超级充电站虽然对电动汽车至关重要,但不太可能为特斯拉带来可观的收入。即使超级充电站网络继续以目前的速度增长,其利用率从平均约11%提高到加油站的约34%,与特斯拉robotaxi业务的规模相比,它对我们目标价格的财务影响也是微不足道的。FSD许可特斯拉目前正在讨论将其FSD软件许可给一家汽车制造商的事宜。虽然这对特斯拉来说可能是一件大事,但根据传统汽车行业从设计到生产的时间表,非特斯拉公司的配备FSD的汽车可能要在数年后才会亮相。即便如此,就如在线升级(OTA)一样,汽车制造商可能会在部分车型上试用FSD,或许会优先考虑电动传动系统——最近,其在传统汽车生产计划上有所落后。我们的研究表明,在未来五年内,FSD许可不太可能影响特斯拉的收入或盈利。人工智能服务(AI-As-A-Service)特斯拉提供分布式人工智能推理服务(AI-inference-as-a-service, IaaS)和Dojo训练服务(training-as-a-service)的计划可能超出了我们的五年投资期限。虽然将分布式人工智能推理服务整合到个人拥有的车辆中可能会带来一些挑战,如不稳定的Wi-Fi连接和停车期间的调度瓶颈,但robotaxi车队可以解决其中的一些问题。专用的充电基础设施和稳定的互联网接入,再加上可靠的车辆行驶时间安排,可以形成一个支持人工智能IaaS服务的组织结构。尽管特斯拉管理层在2024年1月的一季度财报电话会议上淡化了Dojo的工作,但特斯拉已于今年开始生产下一代Dojo芯片瓦,这表明其工作取得了进展。Dojo可能会成为特斯拉内部算力的重要贡献者,但与去年类似,我们预计Dojo的外部使用不会在未来五年内对特斯拉的价值做出有意义的贡献。蒙特卡洛模型的风险和局限性ARK的45个独立变量,涵盖了我们认为特斯拉未来五年可能出现的各种情况。埃隆·马斯克突然离开公司、自然灾害或大流行病等意外事件可能会使这些结果大打折扣。结论综上所述,ARK的特斯拉目标价格为2029年每股2600美元。我们的悲观和乐观例子表明,2029年特斯拉的估值可能在每股2000美元到3100美元之间。我们已在GitHub上发布了我们的模拟模型,并邀请读者探索和测试假设和/或根据模拟创建可视化效果。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301318052245520,"gmtCreate":1714570208413,"gmtModify":1714570209622,"author":{"id":"100608590889400","authorId":"100608590889400","name":"温小九","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4711d43b1843c2ebe9176d0488b1a7e4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"100608590889400","authorIdStr":"100608590889400"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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达子快点儿吧,改善生活就靠你了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/255125692506312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650615402,"gmtCreate":1679127903806,"gmtModify":1679127904999,"author":{"id":"100608590889400","authorId":"100608590889400","name":"温小九","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4711d43b1843c2ebe9176d0488b1a7e4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"100608590889400","authorIdStr":"100608590889400"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"相信科技的力量<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"相信科技的力量<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"相信科技的力量$英伟达(NVDA)$ $美国超微公司(AMD)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650615402","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622499892,"gmtCreate":1675778800316,"gmtModify":1675780478819,"author":{"id":"100608590889400","authorId":"100608590889400","name":"温小九","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4711d43b1843c2ebe9176d0488b1a7e4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"100608590889400","authorIdStr":"100608590889400"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>但愿吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>但愿吧","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 但愿吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622499892","repostId":"1133479298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133479298","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675777212,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133479298?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-07 21:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉也能成为彼得·林奇所说的“十倍股”?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133479298","media":"金十数据","summary":"有分析师认为,从行业地位、库存水平和PEG来看,特斯拉开始显露出彼得·林奇所说的“十倍股”的特征...彼得·林奇以识别 \"十倍股\"而闻名。他发明的PEG选股法,能够识别估值相对合理、成长较快的股票。本","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>有分析师认为,从行业地位、库存水平和PEG来看,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>开始显露出彼得·林奇所说的“十倍股”的特征...</blockquote><p>彼得·林奇以识别 "十倍股"而闻名。<b>他发明的PEG选股法,能够识别估值相对合理、成长较快的股票。</b>本文将分析为何特斯拉已经显示出“十倍股”的关键特征。</p><p><b>特斯拉目前PEG(市盈率/盈利增速)还比彼得·林奇理想的1倍还高一点。本文估计特斯拉的PEG在1.8倍左右</b>,其独特的优势就是有力的证据。</p><p>彼得林奇以挑选十倍股而闻名,他将股票分为缓慢增长型、困境反转型和快速增长型等六大类。林奇似乎颇为青睐快速增长型股票。这类股票年收益增长可达20%。林奇多次提到,投资者能从快速增长型股票中获取巨大收益。然而,这类股票本身的风险也比较大。</p><p>本文估计特斯拉的PEG为1.8倍,另外还有以下<b>独特优势</b>:</p><p><b>朝阳行业中的领军者。</b>电动汽车行业未来几年甚至几十年还会快速成长,特斯拉正是其中的主导者。</p><p>库存状况。库存水平是投资者轻而易举就能识别到的点(不幸的是,投资者往往会忽略)。库存是最可靠的财务数据之一(较少受到主观解释的影响),往往能反映出业务需求和健康状况。<b>特斯拉的库存水平表明,其产品很受欢迎,尽管一直面临着各种挑战,特斯拉也能非常有效地管理其庞大的物流系统。</b></p><p>估值合理。林奇的PEG选股法广为流传,他青睐PEG1倍左右的快速增长型股票。<b>虽然特斯拉的PEG目前还在1倍以上,但也正在接近1倍。</b></p><p><b>朝阳行业的巨头</b></p><p>几年来,特斯拉的电动汽车生产和销售商一直领先全球。其他主要电动汽车制造商,如大众、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">通用汽车</a>和丰田,近年来也一直在强化自身电动汽车的生产和销售,但与特斯拉相比还有好一段距离。从下图可以看出,<b>特斯拉是妥妥的领导者</b>,Model Y和Model X位列市场份额的前两名,远远甩开了第三名福特野马。</p><p>展望未来,<b>特斯拉应该能保持领先地位,诸多原因背后,规模和品牌吸引力最为重要。</b></p><p><b>在制造规模方面,特斯拉已经实现了关键规模经济,与其他制造商相比,更具成本优势。</b>特斯拉已经<b>形成了强大的品牌形象</b>,以其时尚和简约的设计俘获了大量的粉丝。同时,还不断推出超炫的功能,例如自动驾驶和空中升级技术,让粉丝保持好奇与期待。</p><p><i>电动汽车市场份额</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81012921a09e49b65130c8ad8bbba6aa\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:electrek.co)</p><p><b>库存控制</b></p><p>上文提到,库存是投资者很容易观察到的方面,也是他们应该关注的重点,对快速增长型公司而言更是如此。<b>库存是反映资源利用效率、客户满意度、现金流管理以及资产负债表管理的可靠指标。</b></p><p>下图显示了特斯拉的库存水平,第一个表为美元绝对值,第二个表为库存周转天数,最后一个表为季度库存占销售收入的百分比。本文本文分析师认为,特斯拉的表现与林奇快速增长型企业的所有迹象相符。从第一张图可以看出,特斯拉的库存一直在迅速增加,最近一个季度达到128亿美元。</p><p>然而,后面两幅图表明,特斯拉产品太受欢迎,需求强劲,库存周转天数和库存占销售额的百分比皆低于平均水平。第二幅图显示,特斯拉当前的库存周转天数徘徊在 57 天左右,远低于 79 天的历史平均水平。最后一幅图说明当前库存仅占销售额的 52.8% 左右,远低于 71% 的历史平均水平。</p><p>总而言之,本文认为,上述表现足以说明,<b>特斯拉发展健康,管理有效。面对挑战(例如防疫措施和全球供应链中断),特斯拉在客户满意度(合理的库存量)和现金流管理(没有过多的资金占用库存)之间取得了良好的平衡。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d133d78e80854688245fbad004f567\" tg-width=\"1554\" tg-height=\"1059\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:Seeking Alpha data)</p><p><b>估值与林奇的PEG比率</b></p><p>前文提到,特斯拉目前的PEG还高于1倍。以下两张表展示的是本文基于某些假设对特斯拉目前PEG比率的预测。总而言之,<b>本文认为特斯拉目前的PEG在1.8倍左右,虽然不是理想的1倍,但也可以成为十倍股,特斯拉独特的优势可以证明此观点的合理性。</b></p><p>本文的PEG估计基于特斯拉远期市盈率倍数为47.9x。特斯拉的每股收益在过去5年中一直以58%的速度增长(在这种情况下,过去10年的增长率没有意义)。共识预测认为,未来几年,特斯拉每股收益年增长率将在18.8%至30%之间。复合年增长率约为25%,从而得出PEG约为1.92倍。</p><p>别忘了,特斯拉目前账上有221 亿美元净现金,相当于每股约6.7 美元。因此,<b>如果将现金考虑在内,特斯拉的市盈率会稍低(约为 46.3 倍,调整前为 47.9 倍)。因此,PEG 也有所降低(约 1.85 倍)。</b></p><p><i>特斯拉业绩预测</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccda57c35aa5502039cda6248a26cc37\" tg-width=\"2082\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:Seeking Alpha data)</p><p><i>特斯拉PEG</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d79a034abb303805b3e0f68521f895c\" tg-width=\"1779\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(来源:本文分析师)</p><p><b>风险与总结</b></p><p>除了PEG高于1倍外,投资特斯拉也有别的风险。<b>电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧。特斯拉今天如此成功,很大程度上归功于其先发优势。</b>特斯拉是最早进入电动车行业的公司之一,享有显著先发优势。然而,现在所有的主要车企,如大众、通用汽车和丰田等重量级企业,都在加紧电动汽车的生产。而特斯拉首席执行官<b>马斯克鲜明的个性</b>也有好有坏,他的所作所为时常受到媒体批评。最近,因为收购推特的事情,媒体觉得他太过分心。</p><p>总的来说,<b>本文分析师认为特斯拉已经显示出符合林奇快速增长型股票标准的迹象,既是朝阳行业的领军者,又有足以证明企业健康发展的库存水平。</b>虽然特斯拉的PEG(本文估计1.8倍左右)没有1倍那么完美,但其领导地位和良好的品牌形象也足以证明其巨大的发展潜力。</p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉也能成为彼得·林奇所说的“十倍股”?</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/106298","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133479298","content_text":"有分析师认为,从行业地位、库存水平和PEG来看,特斯拉开始显露出彼得·林奇所说的“十倍股”的特征...彼得·林奇以识别 \"十倍股\"而闻名。他发明的PEG选股法,能够识别估值相对合理、成长较快的股票。本文将分析为何特斯拉已经显示出“十倍股”的关键特征。特斯拉目前PEG(市盈率/盈利增速)还比彼得·林奇理想的1倍还高一点。本文估计特斯拉的PEG在1.8倍左右,其独特的优势就是有力的证据。彼得林奇以挑选十倍股而闻名,他将股票分为缓慢增长型、困境反转型和快速增长型等六大类。林奇似乎颇为青睐快速增长型股票。这类股票年收益增长可达20%。林奇多次提到,投资者能从快速增长型股票中获取巨大收益。然而,这类股票本身的风险也比较大。本文估计特斯拉的PEG为1.8倍,另外还有以下独特优势:朝阳行业中的领军者。电动汽车行业未来几年甚至几十年还会快速成长,特斯拉正是其中的主导者。库存状况。库存水平是投资者轻而易举就能识别到的点(不幸的是,投资者往往会忽略)。库存是最可靠的财务数据之一(较少受到主观解释的影响),往往能反映出业务需求和健康状况。特斯拉的库存水平表明,其产品很受欢迎,尽管一直面临着各种挑战,特斯拉也能非常有效地管理其庞大的物流系统。估值合理。林奇的PEG选股法广为流传,他青睐PEG1倍左右的快速增长型股票。虽然特斯拉的PEG目前还在1倍以上,但也正在接近1倍。朝阳行业的巨头几年来,特斯拉的电动汽车生产和销售商一直领先全球。其他主要电动汽车制造商,如大众、通用汽车和丰田,近年来也一直在强化自身电动汽车的生产和销售,但与特斯拉相比还有好一段距离。从下图可以看出,特斯拉是妥妥的领导者,Model Y和Model X位列市场份额的前两名,远远甩开了第三名福特野马。展望未来,特斯拉应该能保持领先地位,诸多原因背后,规模和品牌吸引力最为重要。在制造规模方面,特斯拉已经实现了关键规模经济,与其他制造商相比,更具成本优势。特斯拉已经形成了强大的品牌形象,以其时尚和简约的设计俘获了大量的粉丝。同时,还不断推出超炫的功能,例如自动驾驶和空中升级技术,让粉丝保持好奇与期待。电动汽车市场份额(来源:electrek.co)库存控制上文提到,库存是投资者很容易观察到的方面,也是他们应该关注的重点,对快速增长型公司而言更是如此。库存是反映资源利用效率、客户满意度、现金流管理以及资产负债表管理的可靠指标。下图显示了特斯拉的库存水平,第一个表为美元绝对值,第二个表为库存周转天数,最后一个表为季度库存占销售收入的百分比。本文本文分析师认为,特斯拉的表现与林奇快速增长型企业的所有迹象相符。从第一张图可以看出,特斯拉的库存一直在迅速增加,最近一个季度达到128亿美元。然而,后面两幅图表明,特斯拉产品太受欢迎,需求强劲,库存周转天数和库存占销售额的百分比皆低于平均水平。第二幅图显示,特斯拉当前的库存周转天数徘徊在 57 天左右,远低于 79 天的历史平均水平。最后一幅图说明当前库存仅占销售额的 52.8% 左右,远低于 71% 的历史平均水平。总而言之,本文认为,上述表现足以说明,特斯拉发展健康,管理有效。面对挑战(例如防疫措施和全球供应链中断),特斯拉在客户满意度(合理的库存量)和现金流管理(没有过多的资金占用库存)之间取得了良好的平衡。(来源:Seeking Alpha data)估值与林奇的PEG比率前文提到,特斯拉目前的PEG还高于1倍。以下两张表展示的是本文基于某些假设对特斯拉目前PEG比率的预测。总而言之,本文认为特斯拉目前的PEG在1.8倍左右,虽然不是理想的1倍,但也可以成为十倍股,特斯拉独特的优势可以证明此观点的合理性。本文的PEG估计基于特斯拉远期市盈率倍数为47.9x。特斯拉的每股收益在过去5年中一直以58%的速度增长(在这种情况下,过去10年的增长率没有意义)。共识预测认为,未来几年,特斯拉每股收益年增长率将在18.8%至30%之间。复合年增长率约为25%,从而得出PEG约为1.92倍。别忘了,特斯拉目前账上有221 亿美元净现金,相当于每股约6.7 美元。因此,如果将现金考虑在内,特斯拉的市盈率会稍低(约为 46.3 倍,调整前为 47.9 倍)。因此,PEG 也有所降低(约 1.85 倍)。特斯拉业绩预测(来源:Seeking Alpha data)特斯拉PEG(来源:本文分析师)风险与总结除了PEG高于1倍外,投资特斯拉也有别的风险。电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧。特斯拉今天如此成功,很大程度上归功于其先发优势。特斯拉是最早进入电动车行业的公司之一,享有显著先发优势。然而,现在所有的主要车企,如大众、通用汽车和丰田等重量级企业,都在加紧电动汽车的生产。而特斯拉首席执行官马斯克鲜明的个性也有好有坏,他的所作所为时常受到媒体批评。最近,因为收购推特的事情,媒体觉得他太过分心。总的来说,本文分析师认为特斯拉已经显示出符合林奇快速增长型股票标准的迹象,既是朝阳行业的领军者,又有足以证明企业健康发展的库存水平。虽然特斯拉的PEG(本文估计1.8倍左右)没有1倍那么完美,但其领导地位和良好的品牌形象也足以证明其巨大的发展潜力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":383640217444920,"gmtCreate":1734703482122,"gmtModify":1734703484477,"author":{"id":"100608590889400","authorId":"100608590889400","name":"温小九","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4711d43b1843c2ebe9176d0488b1a7e4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"100608590889400","authorIdStr":"100608590889400"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很正常啊,都有一个身份是商人!小扎、库克不也都去见了懂王么","listText":"很正常啊,都有一个身份是商人!小扎、库克不也都去见了懂王么","text":"很正常啊,都有一个身份是商人!小扎、库克不也都去见了懂王么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383640217444920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":379731722985784,"gmtCreate":1733742088116,"gmtModify":1733742090381,"author":{"id":"100608590889400","authorId":"100608590889400","name":"温小九","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4711d43b1843c2ebe9176d0488b1a7e4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"100608590889400","authorIdStr":"100608590889400"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该不太可能","listText":"应该不太可能","text":"应该不太可能","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379731722985784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":70,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375495139217864,"gmtCreate":1732715301939,"gmtModify":1732715304141,"author":{"id":"100608590889400","authorId":"100608590889400","name":"温小九","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4711d43b1843c2ebe9176d0488b1a7e4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"100608590889400","authorIdStr":"100608590889400"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"它不来回波动,债主咋挣钱,横盘就麻烦了","listText":"它不来回波动,债主咋挣钱,横盘就麻烦了","text":"它不来回波动,债主咋挣钱,横盘就麻烦了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375495139217864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372833898283256,"gmtCreate":1732033578379,"gmtModify":1732033580631,"author":{"id":"100608590889400","authorId":"100608590889400","name":"温小九","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4711d43b1843c2ebe9176d0488b1a7e4","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"100608590889400","authorIdStr":"100608590889400"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"会强平至风控线以下","listText":"会强平至风控线以下","text":"会强平至风控线以下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372833898283256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}