Bitcoin vs Gold - which is a better hedge?_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Bitcoin vs Gold - which is a better hedge?

BleuNovember
2021-11-23

$Bitcoin Group SE(BTGGF)$vs $ETFS Physical Gold(GOLD.AU)$

The narrative sold by crypto bulls that bitcoin is an inflation hedge is hogwash.

Follow the money, not just the narrative. Both fundamentals and narratives support each other. Any one leg drops and the table gives way.

Here we can see using the Equity Risk Premium (ERP) - ERP and BTC follows in an inversely related fashion. In an equity sell off (resulting in premiums going up), BTC and crypto follow the sell-off. The opposite happens for gold.

BTC (and other crypto) are high-beta speculations on liquidity. When liquidity (the punch bowl) is removed and tapered down, the entire crypto market follows. They are not inflation hedges or places for flight to safety, unlike gold.

A caution though on gold, as in 2013, 2015, the switch flipped, peculiar situation arose with gold’s value decreasing 28% and 12%, which hints that gold may not be at the level of perceived stability it used to hold. I'd not overweight it.

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