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MartinKuah
2021-09-10

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Buying The 20% Dip In Boeing

Summary Boeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high. The Wall St

Buying The 20% Dip In Boeing

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":883276053,"tweetId":"883276053","gmtCreate":1631249424972,"gmtModify":1632883641507,"author":{"id":3558654025923461,"idStr":"3558654025923461","authorId":3558654025923461,"authorIdStr":"3558654025923461","name":"MartinKuah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78f32262f3c5e93d76e3fb5e489f8dd2","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Airbus</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Airbus</body></html>","text":"Airbus","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883276053","repostId":1112768265,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112768265","pubTimestamp":1631246069,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112768265?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The 20% Dip In Boeing","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112768265","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBoeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high.\nThe Wall St","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Boeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high.</li>\n <li>The Wall Street consensus outlook is bullish, with a 28% expected 12-month gain.</li>\n <li>The market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has improved substantially from early 2021.</li>\n <li>Despite the recent news, I am shifting to a bullish rating on Boeing.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc2d7054e9e4d9e28d9adde400ba0e81\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">gk-6mt/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nBoeing (BA) has recently been hit with a spate of bad news. First, the company announced that deliveries of the&nbsp;787 Dreamliner had been (further) delayed. Next, Ryanair&nbsp;ended discussions&nbsp;for the purchase of new planes. This comes on the heels of U.K. airline Jet2&nbsp;selecting&nbsp;Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF)&nbsp;rather than Boeing for an order of 32 jets. BA shares are currently trading at $215.20, 20% below the YTD high closing price of $269.19, set on March 12th.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b74570d3815f4894fc58f3fa861ad031\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"410\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">5-year price history for Boeing (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nInvestors who bought into BA during the early market response to COVID, when shares went below $100, have done very well. The shares are still far below the pre-COVID levels and the challenge is how to figure out a reasonable strategy with the stock.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e006da60ae0e387ad72a82be4682b84a\" tg-width=\"599\" tg-height=\"730\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Performance of BA since my last analysis in January 2021 (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nI&nbsp;last analyzed BA&nbsp;on January 17th and I gave the shares a bearish rating. From the publication of that piece until today, BA has returned 2.9% and the S&amp;P 500 has gained 19.6%. Since January, economic conditions have improved substantially, but we are facing a Northern Hemisphere winter with COVID Delta spreading rapidly. In addition, BA’s recent setbacks must be considered. In this piece, I am updating my analysis using the same approach.\nBack in my January analysis, there were several red flags for BA that I cited in my write-up. First, the Wall Street consensus price target projected an 11% gain over 12 months, which seemed like a small expected gain given the high level of risk. Second, there was enormous dispersion in the analyst outlooks, which has been&nbsp;shown to reduce (or even reverse)&nbsp;the predictive value of the consensus. As a rule of thumb, when I see a factor of 2 difference between the highest and lowest analyst price targets, I get concerned. Back then, the lowest price target was less than half the highest. The third major red flag for me was that the consensus view of options traders (derived from options prices) had substantially elevated probabilities of negative returns.\nI rely on two forms of consensus outlooks, as discussed above. The Wall Street analyst consensus is widely followed. The market-implied outlook, the options market’s consensus view, provides another viewpoint. The price of an option is the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the price of the underlying stock will rise (call option) or fall (put option) relative to the option strike price. By analyzing options at a range of strikes, and a common expiration date, it is possible to infer the probabilistic price return outlook that reconciles the options prices. For readers who are not familiar with this approach, I have written an&nbsp;overview, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for BA\neTrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus combines the views of 15 ranked analysts who have set ratings and price targets within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 29% above the current price. Even the lowest of the 12-month price targets is 4.75% above the current price. Of the 15 analysts, 8 assign a buy and 7 assign a hold rating. The current analyst outlook is quite a contrast to the one I cited in my&nbsp;previous analysis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d154bd7aaebb18c97a28b2b0f674905a\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"875\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: eTrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus is calculated using ratings and price targets from 22 analysts who have set views in the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 27% above the current price.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d89f598f3a1a16150c04bc2b130bd5a4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"645\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Wall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe improvement in the consensus outlook for BA since January is especially notable given the stream of bad news stories.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for BA\nI have analysed put and call options at a range of strikes to generate market-implied outlooks into the start of 2022 (using options expiring on January 21, 2022), six months out (options expiring on March 18, 2022), and nine months out (expiring on June 17, 2022). The option trading volume and open interest for BA are high, especially for the options expiring in January. This adds confidence to the meaningfulness of the market-implied outlook. The calculated expected values of the options, using the market-implied outlook, match the market prices of the options very closely (the average difference between the market prices of options and the modeled values is 0.2% for the January and March options, and 0.3% for the June options).\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price returns, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal axis.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23145b7ab3bf6ce3d24d3fff1fb9854e\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for the next 4.4 months is generally symmetric, with comparable probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude. The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +1.75%, but this is not large enough to be meaningful. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I look at the version of the market-implied probability chart in which I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72f2063e003fa4af1a9cae06bfb8486\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThe probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude match very closely in the 4.4-month outlook (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). Theoretically, the market-implied outlook should be somewhat negatively biased because risk-averse investors tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. With this consideration, the 4.4-month market-implied outlook is slightly bullish.\nLooking out 6.2 months (calculating the market-implied outlook using options expiring on March 18, 2022), there is a shift towards slightly elevated probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. Given the (theoretical) tendency towards a negative bias, this market-implied outlook is neutral. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab21906a1af9153b4b0020e595e3e866\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 6.2-month period from today until March 18, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nLooking out to June of 2022 (9.2 months into the future), the market-implied outlook has shifted to become somewhat bearish, with meaningfully higher probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7827202f1afc0ee691beb9c81c1c3b4\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Market-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 9.2-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThe market-implied outlook is modestly bullish over the next 4.4 months, shifting to a neutral outlook over the 6.2-month period, and evolving to become somewhat bearish for the 9.2-month period.\nSummary\nEven with the recent litany of bad news, the consensus outlook from Wall Street analysts is bullish, and the consensus 12-month price target for BA is about 28% above the current price. The consensus outlook is markedly more positive than in early 2021. Granted, the consensus rating and price target includes analysis within the past 90 days, so the consensus price targets may not reflect the most current information.\nThe market-implied outlook for BA are slightly bullish into the start of 2022, shifting to neutral by mid-March, and then becoming somewhat bearish by the middle of 2022. The somewhat bullish near-term market-implied outlook reduces my concerns that the Wall Street consensus may not fully reflect recent bad news. The expected volatility derived from the market-implied outlooks is 38% (annualized).\nIf we take the Wall Street consensus price target at face value, the 28% 12-month expected gain looks like a good bet for a stock with 38% volatility. As a rule of thumb, I look for expected annual return of at least ½ the value of the expected volatility, and BA easily exceeds this criterion. With the substantially bullish Wall Street consensus and the bullish-to-neutral outlook to mid-March, I am changing my overall rating for BA to bullish, although I want to revisit this analysis in early 2022 due to the bearish tilt in the 9-month market-implied outlook.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The 20% Dip In Boeing</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The 20% Dip In Boeing\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 11:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454405-buying-the-20-percent-dip-in-boeing>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nBoeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high.\nThe Wall Street consensus outlook is bullish, with a 28% expected 12-month gain.\nThe market-implied outlook (...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454405-buying-the-20-percent-dip-in-boeing\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454405-buying-the-20-percent-dip-in-boeing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112768265","content_text":"Summary\n\nBoeing has suffered some recent setbacks and shares are 20% below the YTD high.\nThe Wall Street consensus outlook is bullish, with a 28% expected 12-month gain.\nThe market-implied outlook (derived from options prices) has improved substantially from early 2021.\nDespite the recent news, I am shifting to a bullish rating on Boeing.\n\ngk-6mt/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nBoeing (BA) has recently been hit with a spate of bad news. First, the company announced that deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner had been (further) delayed. Next, Ryanair ended discussions for the purchase of new planes. This comes on the heels of U.K. airline Jet2 selecting Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF) rather than Boeing for an order of 32 jets. BA shares are currently trading at $215.20, 20% below the YTD high closing price of $269.19, set on March 12th.\n5-year price history for Boeing (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nInvestors who bought into BA during the early market response to COVID, when shares went below $100, have done very well. The shares are still far below the pre-COVID levels and the challenge is how to figure out a reasonable strategy with the stock.\nPerformance of BA since my last analysis in January 2021 (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nI last analyzed BA on January 17th and I gave the shares a bearish rating. From the publication of that piece until today, BA has returned 2.9% and the S&P 500 has gained 19.6%. Since January, economic conditions have improved substantially, but we are facing a Northern Hemisphere winter with COVID Delta spreading rapidly. In addition, BA’s recent setbacks must be considered. In this piece, I am updating my analysis using the same approach.\nBack in my January analysis, there were several red flags for BA that I cited in my write-up. First, the Wall Street consensus price target projected an 11% gain over 12 months, which seemed like a small expected gain given the high level of risk. Second, there was enormous dispersion in the analyst outlooks, which has been shown to reduce (or even reverse) the predictive value of the consensus. As a rule of thumb, when I see a factor of 2 difference between the highest and lowest analyst price targets, I get concerned. Back then, the lowest price target was less than half the highest. The third major red flag for me was that the consensus view of options traders (derived from options prices) had substantially elevated probabilities of negative returns.\nI rely on two forms of consensus outlooks, as discussed above. The Wall Street analyst consensus is widely followed. The market-implied outlook, the options market’s consensus view, provides another viewpoint. The price of an option is the market’s consensus estimate of the probability that the price of the underlying stock will rise (call option) or fall (put option) relative to the option strike price. By analyzing options at a range of strikes, and a common expiration date, it is possible to infer the probabilistic price return outlook that reconciles the options prices. For readers who are not familiar with this approach, I have written an overview, including links to the relevant financial literature.\nWall Street Consensus Outlook for BA\neTrade’s calculation of the Wall Street consensus combines the views of 15 ranked analysts who have set ratings and price targets within the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus 12-month price target is 29% above the current price. Even the lowest of the 12-month price targets is 4.75% above the current price. Of the 15 analysts, 8 assign a buy and 7 assign a hold rating. The current analyst outlook is quite a contrast to the one I cited in my previous analysis.\nWall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: eTrade)\nSeeking Alpha’s version of the Wall Street consensus is calculated using ratings and price targets from 22 analysts who have set views in the past 90 days. The consensus rating is bullish and the consensus price target is 27% above the current price.\nWall Street analyst consensus and 12-month price target for BA (Source: Seeking Alpha)\nThe improvement in the consensus outlook for BA since January is especially notable given the stream of bad news stories.\nMarket-Implied Outlook for BA\nI have analysed put and call options at a range of strikes to generate market-implied outlooks into the start of 2022 (using options expiring on January 21, 2022), six months out (options expiring on March 18, 2022), and nine months out (expiring on June 17, 2022). The option trading volume and open interest for BA are high, especially for the options expiring in January. This adds confidence to the meaningfulness of the market-implied outlook. The calculated expected values of the options, using the market-implied outlook, match the market prices of the options very closely (the average difference between the market prices of options and the modeled values is 0.2% for the January and March options, and 0.3% for the June options).\nThe standard presentation of the market-implied outlook is a probability distribution of price returns, with probability on the vertical axis and return on the horizontal axis.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022 (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThe market-implied outlook for the next 4.4 months is generally symmetric, with comparable probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude. The peak probability corresponds to a price return of +1.75%, but this is not large enough to be meaningful. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.\nTo make it easier to directly compare the probabilities of positive and negative returns, I look at the version of the market-implied probability chart in which I rotate the negative return side of the distribution about the vertical axis (see chart below).\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 4.4-month period from today until January 21, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: Author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThe probabilities of positive and negative returns of the same magnitude match very closely in the 4.4-month outlook (the solid blue line and the dashed red line are very close to one another). Theoretically, the market-implied outlook should be somewhat negatively biased because risk-averse investors tend to pay more than fair value for downside protection. With this consideration, the 4.4-month market-implied outlook is slightly bullish.\nLooking out 6.2 months (calculating the market-implied outlook using options expiring on March 18, 2022), there is a shift towards slightly elevated probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. Given the (theoretical) tendency towards a negative bias, this market-implied outlook is neutral. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 6.2-month period from today until March 18, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nLooking out to June of 2022 (9.2 months into the future), the market-implied outlook has shifted to become somewhat bearish, with meaningfully higher probabilities of negative returns relative to positive returns. The annualized volatility derived from this distribution is 38%.\nMarket-implied price return probabilities for BA for the 9.2-month period from today until June 17, 2022. The negative return side of the distribution has been rotated about the vertical axis (Source: author’s calculations using options quotes from eTrade)\nThe market-implied outlook is modestly bullish over the next 4.4 months, shifting to a neutral outlook over the 6.2-month period, and evolving to become somewhat bearish for the 9.2-month period.\nSummary\nEven with the recent litany of bad news, the consensus outlook from Wall Street analysts is bullish, and the consensus 12-month price target for BA is about 28% above the current price. The consensus outlook is markedly more positive than in early 2021. Granted, the consensus rating and price target includes analysis within the past 90 days, so the consensus price targets may not reflect the most current information.\nThe market-implied outlook for BA are slightly bullish into the start of 2022, shifting to neutral by mid-March, and then becoming somewhat bearish by the middle of 2022. The somewhat bullish near-term market-implied outlook reduces my concerns that the Wall Street consensus may not fully reflect recent bad news. The expected volatility derived from the market-implied outlooks is 38% (annualized).\nIf we take the Wall Street consensus price target at face value, the 28% 12-month expected gain looks like a good bet for a stock with 38% volatility. As a rule of thumb, I look for expected annual return of at least ½ the value of the expected volatility, and BA easily exceeds this criterion. With the substantially bullish Wall Street consensus and the bullish-to-neutral outlook to mid-March, I am changing my overall rating for BA to bullish, although I want to revisit this analysis in early 2022 due to the bearish tilt in the 9-month market-implied outlook.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":103,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":6,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}