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2021-11-15

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Stocks Hover Near Their Highs. Main Street Doesn’t Care.

So this is what happens when you turn it up to 11. Even those who aren’t fans of the classic rock mo

Stocks Hover Near Their Highs. Main Street Doesn’t Care.

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Main Street Doesn’t Care.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164000315","media":"Barrons","summary":"So this is what happens when you turn it up to 11. Even those who aren’t fans of the classic rock mo","content":"<p>So this is what happens when you turn it up to 11. Even those who aren’t fans of the classic rock mockumentary This Is Spinal Tap are familiar with the insistence of the dimwitted guitar player that his amplifier played louder than others because the volume control number went to 11, rather than the usual 10. That, of course, didn’t produce more decibels, especially since he scrawled the numeral on the amp.</p>\n<p>Similarly, based on the numbers, all Americans never had it so good. And especially in the stock market, where investors’ wealth increased by $9.7 trillion—some 23.5%—in the year through Friday, according to the FT Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Yet that hasn’t trickled down to average folks, who tell the University of Michigan that their confidence in the economic outlook is the lowest in a decade.</p>\n<p>That’s because they know, regardless of what the numbers say, that their incomes are declining in real terms. Employment is up, wages are up, but not as much as prices. That was driven home this past week with news that the consumer price index had jumped 0.9% in October, bringing the year-over-year increase to 6.2%, the most in more than three decades.</p>\n<p>Policy makers continue to put a brave face on inflation. Conceding that inflation is painful, President Joe Biden says his $1.85 trillion Build Back Better program, which is being held up in the Senate, and the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which he plans to sign on Monday, will help ease price pressures. Similarly, Federal Reserve officials are sticking to their mantra that inflation is “transitory” and should ease once Covid-related supply-chain and other disruptions are worked out.</p>\n<p>To more disinterested observers, the policy makers are the source of the inflation problem, rather than the solution.</p>\n<p>Julian Brigden, who heads Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, traces the inflation problem to the “utterly disproportionate” monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, especially given the fiscal stimulus that had been applied before the coronavirus hit in early 2020. As a result, the “output gap”—the difference between the U.S. economy’s potential and actual gross domestic product—has closed in short order. In contrast, he notes, the output gap was never closed in the decade-plus following the recession resulting from the 2008-09 financial crisis.</p>\n<p>This also means that the U.S. practically is at full employment, even though the official jobless rate is 4.6%. But some five million people have left the labor force since the pandemic started, with most of them over the age of 55, according to Goldman Sachs economists, resulting from early (1.5 million) or regular (one million) retirements.</p>\n<p>The economists think that most of the 1.7 million “prime age” labor-force dropouts are apt to return. Still, they contend that labor-force participation will remain below trend, which will result in the Fed adjusting its maximum employment goal accordingly.</p>\n<p>The strength of the labor market can be seen in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed 10.44 million openings at the end of September and a record 3% quit rate.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business cited a lack of workers for unfilled positions, along with supply shortages, as the biggest problems in its October survey. This is forcing small businesses to boost compensation to the highest level since 1984.</p>\n<p>Brigden reckons that the U.S. central bank will view a 3.8% jobless rate as full employment, even though that’s above the 3.5% trough reached in February 2020, before Covid hit. That level might not be far off, given the indicators. The bad news, he adds, is that the current supereasy financial conditions are “utterly inappropriate,” given surging inflation and a strong labor market. </p>\n<p>The Fed is only about to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly securities purchases by just $15 billion a month; at that rate, it will add over $400 billion to its $8.5 trillion balance sheet, which has more than doubled since February 2020, before the pandemic. And the central bank’s federal-funds rate target remains at a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25%.</p>\n<p>So far, Brigden notes, financial conditions have tightened mainly at the short end of the Treasury market, where the two-year note’s yield has tripled since early August, to 0.52%, while the five-year yield in the “belly” of the curve has jumped to 1.23% from 0.65%, anticipating Fed rate hikes starting in mid-2022. But other measures, notably longer-term Treasury yields, credit spreads, and equity prices, remain supereasy.</p>\n<p>Containing surging inflation requires tighter financial conditions, Brigden concludes. That’s not priced into the markets, and definitely not into stock prices, with the major averages ending the week less than 1% from their respective records, with monetary and fiscal policies still set at 11.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Hover Near Their Highs. 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Main Street Doesn’t Care. \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-15 11:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-economy-inflation-51636765999?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>So this is what happens when you turn it up to 11. Even those who aren’t fans of the classic rock mockumentary This Is Spinal Tap are familiar with the insistence of the dimwitted guitar player that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-economy-inflation-51636765999?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stock-market-economy-inflation-51636765999?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1164000315","content_text":"So this is what happens when you turn it up to 11. Even those who aren’t fans of the classic rock mockumentary This Is Spinal Tap are familiar with the insistence of the dimwitted guitar player that his amplifier played louder than others because the volume control number went to 11, rather than the usual 10. That, of course, didn’t produce more decibels, especially since he scrawled the numeral on the amp.\nSimilarly, based on the numbers, all Americans never had it so good. And especially in the stock market, where investors’ wealth increased by $9.7 trillion—some 23.5%—in the year through Friday, according to the FT Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index. Yet that hasn’t trickled down to average folks, who tell the University of Michigan that their confidence in the economic outlook is the lowest in a decade.\nThat’s because they know, regardless of what the numbers say, that their incomes are declining in real terms. Employment is up, wages are up, but not as much as prices. That was driven home this past week with news that the consumer price index had jumped 0.9% in October, bringing the year-over-year increase to 6.2%, the most in more than three decades.\nPolicy makers continue to put a brave face on inflation. Conceding that inflation is painful, President Joe Biden says his $1.85 trillion Build Back Better program, which is being held up in the Senate, and the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which he plans to sign on Monday, will help ease price pressures. Similarly, Federal Reserve officials are sticking to their mantra that inflation is “transitory” and should ease once Covid-related supply-chain and other disruptions are worked out.\nTo more disinterested observers, the policy makers are the source of the inflation problem, rather than the solution.\nJulian Brigden, who heads Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, traces the inflation problem to the “utterly disproportionate” monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, especially given the fiscal stimulus that had been applied before the coronavirus hit in early 2020. As a result, the “output gap”—the difference between the U.S. economy’s potential and actual gross domestic product—has closed in short order. In contrast, he notes, the output gap was never closed in the decade-plus following the recession resulting from the 2008-09 financial crisis.\nThis also means that the U.S. practically is at full employment, even though the official jobless rate is 4.6%. But some five million people have left the labor force since the pandemic started, with most of them over the age of 55, according to Goldman Sachs economists, resulting from early (1.5 million) or regular (one million) retirements.\nThe economists think that most of the 1.7 million “prime age” labor-force dropouts are apt to return. Still, they contend that labor-force participation will remain below trend, which will result in the Fed adjusting its maximum employment goal accordingly.\nThe strength of the labor market can be seen in the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, which showed 10.44 million openings at the end of September and a record 3% quit rate.\nMeanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business cited a lack of workers for unfilled positions, along with supply shortages, as the biggest problems in its October survey. This is forcing small businesses to boost compensation to the highest level since 1984.\nBrigden reckons that the U.S. central bank will view a 3.8% jobless rate as full employment, even though that’s above the 3.5% trough reached in February 2020, before Covid hit. That level might not be far off, given the indicators. The bad news, he adds, is that the current supereasy financial conditions are “utterly inappropriate,” given surging inflation and a strong labor market. \nThe Fed is only about to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly securities purchases by just $15 billion a month; at that rate, it will add over $400 billion to its $8.5 trillion balance sheet, which has more than doubled since February 2020, before the pandemic. And the central bank’s federal-funds rate target remains at a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25%.\nSo far, Brigden notes, financial conditions have tightened mainly at the short end of the Treasury market, where the two-year note’s yield has tripled since early August, to 0.52%, while the five-year yield in the “belly” of the curve has jumped to 1.23% from 0.65%, anticipating Fed rate hikes starting in mid-2022. But other measures, notably longer-term Treasury yields, credit spreads, and equity prices, remain supereasy.\nContaining surging inflation requires tighter financial conditions, Brigden concludes. 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Stocks Hover Near Their Highs. Main Street Doesn’t Care.

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