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Garylim
2021-11-11

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Palantir Stock: Teaching The Market A Lesson

Summary Palantir submitted a strong earnings card for the third quarter. The analytics firm is rais

Palantir Stock: Teaching The Market A Lesson

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The drop in pricing presents a buying opportunity because revenue growth is accelerating and customer monetization is improving!\nWhy Palantir is a buy on the drop (again)\nWith the presentation of Palantir's third-quarter earnings card yesterday, the software and analytics business demonstrates that the market may still be underestimating the firm's potential for revenue growth, especially in the commercial segment which is gaining continual momentum. In the third quarter, Palantir generated revenues of $392.1M, showing an increase of 36% year over year. Third-quarter sales surpassed Palantir's guidance of $385M in revenues and Palantir's commercial business is crushing it. The segment grew commercial customers by 46% year over year and US commercial revenues by 103% compared to the year-earlier period. Government revenues (56% share) contributed $217.8M in sales in the third quarter and the private enterprise segment was responsible for $174.3M in sales (44% revenue share). Palantir's commercial business is getting more important regarding client and revenue growth. The firm's year-to-date revenues are $1.1B, showing 44% growth compared to the year-earlier period.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b189376589e0db5cd9327e897664\" tg-width=\"1255\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source:Palantir)\nPalantir is not only growing revenues but also improving monetization of existing customers that sign on to its analytics platform. Palantir added 34 new customers to its client pool in the third quarter and managed to improve customer monetization by generating higher revenues per average customer. The average revenue per top 20 customer grew to $41M in the third quarter... that's equal to a growth rate of 35% year over year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc262f8cb5aa1b1fa15ffdc3453619\" tg-width=\"1498\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source:Palantir)\nTurning to free cash flow.\nPalantir generated free cash flow of $119M in third quarter. This free cash flow, using revenues of $392M, calculates to an impressive and growing margin of 30%. The free cash flow margin in the second quarter was just 13%, so Palantir's profitability is rapidly improving. The third quarter was the fourth straight quarter of positive FCF margins for Palantir…\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df5216ead75d7f97bc953ecaa242a8a2\" tg-width=\"1722\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Palantir)\nBecause Palantir's software and analytics business is gaining momentum, the firm is raising its full year free cash flow forecast again. The firm expected adjusted free cash flow in excess of$150M in the first quarter, FCF in excess of$300M in the second quarter, and now raised its free cash expectation tomore than $400M for FY 2021.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eae68bb14ff450e32e95d2637eba6b04\" tg-width=\"1196\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Palantir)\nPalantir also raised its revenue forecast for FY 2021 from 30% to 40% due to accelerating business growth and better customer acquisition. Since the software firm generated $1.1B in revenues in FY 2020, the new guidance implies revenues of $1.54B and a free cash flow margin of 26% in FY 2021. Because of the raised revenue forecast, I estimate that Palantir's revenues could top $2.0B next year and $5.0B by 2025. A margin of 30% implies free cash flow of $1.5B by 2025, but I consider a 30% FCF margin low. Accelerating customer uptake of Palantir's analytics services and growing revenues per customer show progress in customer monetization, so the free cash flow margin could grow to, say, 40% by 2025. A 40% margin implies free cash flow of $2.0B. Based off of Palantir's Q3'21 FCF guidance for the full year, this estimate represents a 5 X factor increase in free cash flow within four years for Palantir.\nPalantir's sales growth was discounted by 10% yesterday and revenue estimates should continue to rise...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9529e1572da320d87b443aa9f9a45ca6\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts\nBecause of stronger than expected sales and free cash flow growth, shares of Palantir can power higher. But they dropped 10% drop because Palantir also projected an adjusted operating margin of 22% in the fourth quarter, which is below the 30% margin achieved in Q3'21. What people may forget here: Palantir also guided for a 22% margin in the last quarter (out of caution) and beat its own guidance by 8 PP. The drop in pricing never should have happened...\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b407a4b8011c75f1b6ace0675b5f220\" tg-width=\"856\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data by YCharts\nTwo problems with Palantir\nPalantir has one big problem: The firm spends too much money on executive compensation. Issuing new shares as part of compensation packages for managers dilutes shareholders and their shares of future profits. Since the end of FY 2020, Palantir's share count increased by 11% and will likely continue to increase.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45061d4d1dd4c9eaeacf0bc0efc9f4bb\" tg-width=\"1725\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(Source: Palantir)\nBesides dilution, a slowdown in Palantir's revenue and free cash flow growth is a risk for the stock… because it trades chiefly on expectations of sales growth. If Palantir fails to deliver 30% sales growth annually, the stock could revalue lower.\nFinal thoughts\nPalantir's 10% after-earnings drop presents a golden opportunity to buy the firm's robust revenue and free cash flow growth. The Q3'21 earnings card is teaching the market a lesson because it still undervalues the firm's material revenue and free cash flow ramp until FY 2025. While shares of Palantir are not cheap, they should not have dropped yesterday, given the strength of the outlook!","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock: Teaching The Market A Lesson</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock: Teaching The Market A Lesson\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-11 17:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467867-palantir-q3-earnings-pltr-stock-buy-on-drop>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nPalantir submitted a strong earnings card for the third quarter.\nThe analytics firm is raising its revenue and free cash flow forecast for FY 2021 materially due to accelerating business ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467867-palantir-q3-earnings-pltr-stock-buy-on-drop\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4467867-palantir-q3-earnings-pltr-stock-buy-on-drop","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1198342851","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir submitted a strong earnings card for the third quarter.\nThe analytics firm is raising its revenue and free cash flow forecast for FY 2021 materially due to accelerating business momentum.\nRevenue estimates should continue to go up.\n\nShares of Palantir (PLTR) cratered 10% after the submission of the firm's Q3'21 earnings sheet on Tuseday, although the data analytics firm raised its revenue and cash flow outlook. The drop in pricing presents a buying opportunity because revenue growth is accelerating and customer monetization is improving!\nWhy Palantir is a buy on the drop (again)\nWith the presentation of Palantir's third-quarter earnings card yesterday, the software and analytics business demonstrates that the market may still be underestimating the firm's potential for revenue growth, especially in the commercial segment which is gaining continual momentum. In the third quarter, Palantir generated revenues of $392.1M, showing an increase of 36% year over year. Third-quarter sales surpassed Palantir's guidance of $385M in revenues and Palantir's commercial business is crushing it. The segment grew commercial customers by 46% year over year and US commercial revenues by 103% compared to the year-earlier period. Government revenues (56% share) contributed $217.8M in sales in the third quarter and the private enterprise segment was responsible for $174.3M in sales (44% revenue share). Palantir's commercial business is getting more important regarding client and revenue growth. The firm's year-to-date revenues are $1.1B, showing 44% growth compared to the year-earlier period.\n(Source:Palantir)\nPalantir is not only growing revenues but also improving monetization of existing customers that sign on to its analytics platform. Palantir added 34 new customers to its client pool in the third quarter and managed to improve customer monetization by generating higher revenues per average customer. The average revenue per top 20 customer grew to $41M in the third quarter... that's equal to a growth rate of 35% year over year.\n(Source:Palantir)\nTurning to free cash flow.\nPalantir generated free cash flow of $119M in third quarter. This free cash flow, using revenues of $392M, calculates to an impressive and growing margin of 30%. The free cash flow margin in the second quarter was just 13%, so Palantir's profitability is rapidly improving. The third quarter was the fourth straight quarter of positive FCF margins for Palantir…\n(Source: Palantir)\nBecause Palantir's software and analytics business is gaining momentum, the firm is raising its full year free cash flow forecast again. The firm expected adjusted free cash flow in excess of$150M in the first quarter, FCF in excess of$300M in the second quarter, and now raised its free cash expectation tomore than $400M for FY 2021.\n(Source: Palantir)\nPalantir also raised its revenue forecast for FY 2021 from 30% to 40% due to accelerating business growth and better customer acquisition. Since the software firm generated $1.1B in revenues in FY 2020, the new guidance implies revenues of $1.54B and a free cash flow margin of 26% in FY 2021. Because of the raised revenue forecast, I estimate that Palantir's revenues could top $2.0B next year and $5.0B by 2025. A margin of 30% implies free cash flow of $1.5B by 2025, but I consider a 30% FCF margin low. Accelerating customer uptake of Palantir's analytics services and growing revenues per customer show progress in customer monetization, so the free cash flow margin could grow to, say, 40% by 2025. A 40% margin implies free cash flow of $2.0B. Based off of Palantir's Q3'21 FCF guidance for the full year, this estimate represents a 5 X factor increase in free cash flow within four years for Palantir.\nPalantir's sales growth was discounted by 10% yesterday and revenue estimates should continue to rise...\nData by YCharts\nBecause of stronger than expected sales and free cash flow growth, shares of Palantir can power higher. But they dropped 10% drop because Palantir also projected an adjusted operating margin of 22% in the fourth quarter, which is below the 30% margin achieved in Q3'21. What people may forget here: Palantir also guided for a 22% margin in the last quarter (out of caution) and beat its own guidance by 8 PP. The drop in pricing never should have happened...\nData by YCharts\nTwo problems with Palantir\nPalantir has one big problem: The firm spends too much money on executive compensation. Issuing new shares as part of compensation packages for managers dilutes shareholders and their shares of future profits. Since the end of FY 2020, Palantir's share count increased by 11% and will likely continue to increase.\n(Source: Palantir)\nBesides dilution, a slowdown in Palantir's revenue and free cash flow growth is a risk for the stock… because it trades chiefly on expectations of sales growth. If Palantir fails to deliver 30% sales growth annually, the stock could revalue lower.\nFinal thoughts\nPalantir's 10% after-earnings drop presents a golden opportunity to buy the firm's robust revenue and free cash flow growth. The Q3'21 earnings card is teaching the market a lesson because it still undervalues the firm's material revenue and free cash flow ramp until FY 2025. While shares of Palantir are not cheap, they should not have dropped yesterday, given the strength of the outlook!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":688,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}