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2021-09-29

Is Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell After Ark Invest's Trades?

Summary Palantir Technologies is a material holding for momentum investor Ark Invest, across multip

Is Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell After Ark Invest's Trades?

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Our medium-term price target remains $44/share, but longer term we hope for far more.</li>\n <li>We continue to rate the stock at Buy.</li>\n</ul>\nSometimes A Software Company Is Just A Software Company\nThe origins of when a stock becomes viral are difficult to trace. Whether a release from a marketing lab into the wild, or whether a spontaneous transfer of attention from one kind of investor to another, time tends to shroud any kind of successful investigation. And so it is with Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR).\nThis seemly boring enterprise software-and-services company, which in its business model is much like any other of the past thirty years, has become a social media sensation in its own right.\nLet's use the watcher count on StockTwits as a proxy measure of popularity. PLTR has 180k at the time of writing, which dwarfs other industry-leading headline names in the software business. 180k is a lot of people and/or bot-people. Let's compare it to other pillars of the software industry. How about Atlassian(NASDAQ:TEAM), champion of the no-sales-team high growth business model, leader in the development tools and project management sector? 10k watchers. OK, you might say, nobody has heard of TEAM unless you're some kind of devops nerd. Well, how about industry heavyweight, the original cloud name, Salesforce(NYSE:CRM)? 48k watchers. Less than a third of PLTR's watchers! In fact in terms of watcher count, PLTR more closely tracks meme stocks GME (224k) and AMC (346k). Less a software stock and more a motif for the YOLO generation.\nPalantir And Ark Invest\nThis kind of attention is why, when similarly Twitterati'd fund manager Ark Invest posts its selected daily trades, you see FinTwit over-reaction as regards to any moves in Palantir stock. \"Cathie [Ark Invest CEO, Cathie Wood] is selling!!!\" \"Cathie is loading up!!!\" etc. As longtime enterprise software investors this is mighty odd to us. There are few things more boring than enterprise software, and we speak as folks whose world is enterprise software.\nThat said, Ark is one of the more important funds in the tech market right now, and PLTR is certainly a meaningful holding for them. Here's the holdings in PLTR across the various Ark ETFs.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9b863dac1f300e734950bd68d96c447\" tg-width=\"1902\" tg-height=\"785\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nSource: Arktrack.com\nThe thing is, whilst owning 35m shares of PLTR makes PLTR meaningful to Ark, Ark isn't that meaningful to PLTR, whose shares outstanding count stands at a little under 2bn (source - Ycharts.com). So when analyzing Palantir over the long term we think it best to use the traditional tools of fundamental and technical analysis, and ignore any FinTwit hoopla.\nPalantir Stock Valuation\nLet's take a look at Palantir's financial performance. The stock remains relatively new to market and so we have limited quarterlyhistoricals. As time goes by the quarterly seasonality of the business will become clearer. Here's what we have so far.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c00248ff10f30226d6859113a2ecdae\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"736\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nSource:Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nPalantir is a high growth business, with revenue moving up at +49% year-on-year as of the most recent earnings (Q2, ending 30 June 2021). Gross margins are in line with expectations for a services-heavy business model; should they dip below 70% that ought to be a concern because it would likely mean the revenue is being driven by more bespoke installations and less productized installations, always a risk with this kind of huge-customer software company. Accounting profitability in the shape of EBITDA is solid at 22% TTM margins. Those profit margins are a little misleading however - a huge working capital outflow (the company is paying suppliers before it gets paid) means that whilst cashflow is positive in the last twelve months, unlevered pretax FCF stands at around one-sixth of EBITDA over the same period. Over time that has to correct upwards or one has to conclude that the EBITDA isn't real EBITDA. As the company grows, we would expect change in working capital to be somewhat negative each quarter - back to serving huge customers - but not to the degree that is currently the case. Something to keep an eye on if you own the stock or are thinking of doing so.\nFundamental valuation multiples are as follows, as of the most recent close:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/711ec599dde164e06be39874dfd9951f\" tg-width=\"247\" tg-height=\"304\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nIn the current environment paying 39x TTM revenue for 49% TTM revenue growth isn't terrible - that's cheaper than Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)for instance, which is growing at a similar rate and is cashflow negative - but this remains an elevated multiple on any standards and one which can come down fast if growth tails off. So come the Q3 numbers, the single most important number to look at is quarterly revenue. If the company can deliver a continued growth rate of say 40%-45% or better, it remains on the right track. A material deceleration toward 30%-35% is likely to hurt the stock in our view. Earnings, cashflow, all these other things do matter, but the quarterly revenue number matters the most for us - because over the long term if the company can grow at this rate, and simply manage its costs and cash collection competently, nothing will go too far awry.\nLet's now look at the stock price in and of itself, ignoring fundamentals.\nPLTR Stock Price\nStarting with a simple chart - here's how the stock has performed since it first burst forth onto the public market.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f52443a846a6070b17d699ab76c1f20e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"532\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nSource: YCharts.com\nA remarkable performance so far vs. the major indices (in the form of their proxy ETFs, SPY and QQQ). Volatile, but remarkable.\nIn considering where the stock might head next, we think the Elliott Wave method can be of use. Given that PLTR is so volatile and that it is apparently an emotional stock - those watchers again - behavioral tools like wave analysis and Fibonacci retracement levels are particularly well suited we think.\nBelow we update a chart weposted a while back in our last article on Palantir.\nIf you read that August 13, 2021 note, you'll see that we called the bottom of the June-July correction at around $21 - we said it could fall to the next retracement level which would mean $19, but most likely, $21 was the bottom. So far that's proven to be the case, and the stock has moved up since then. The chart below has the same target prices as our August 13 chart, though we've moved the timeline out a little to reflect how the stock has traded since that note. We stand by the $44 near term target, though whether that is achieved in late 2021 per our August note, or early 2022 per the chart below, will have to stay in the realm of the unknowable for now. $44 is a purely technical target arising from our projection of that May-June 2021 Wave 1 to the 1.618 extension, a common peak of a subsequent Wave 3.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19d6fa86d01eb6634eed91a11d11fd72\" tg-width=\"2058\" tg-height=\"915\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nTo check the technical logic - if you backsolve that $44 into a fundamental valuation, the target isn't silly. Let's say that at 31 March 2022, TTM revenue is up 49% vs. 31 March 2021 - that would mean TTM revenue of $1.8bn. Let's say that by then there are 2bn shares outstanding. And let's say that net debt is unchanged from the 30 June 2021 number (to be clear, there should be more cash by then, but let's assume not). That gives us the following TTM Revenue multiple:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/612f04f5aeac4c39923ac7fb41e3cf2f\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"130\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nPLTR has traded around that level in late 2020 &amp; early 2021, when the growth rate was lower (TTM revenue growth in the December-20 quarter was 40%).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda3963d6be0d5e079cb20b14b1599e9\" tg-width=\"766\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nSource: YCharts.com\nSo whilst $44 is not a conservative target, we don't think it's unrealistic either. As a background assumption, we believe the S&amp;P and Nasdaq will each move higher between now and year end, supporting an inflation in multiples for growth stocks. That's just our opinion of course, and you will no doubt factor that into your own work on this stock.\nIs PLTR A Good Long-Term Buy\nWe believe Palantir stock to be a compelling long term buy. If we step back from the noise we see the company achieving success in a very difficult vertical market - government - and developing what its users tell us is highly differentiated analytics technology to good effect in the enterprise. Financial fundamentals are strong - though we're critical of cash generation above, the company has fully $2.3bn net cash in the bank to tide it over - and we don't think the market for growth stocks will collapse anytime soon. All told, we remain at Buy on Palantir, re-iterate a medium term target of $44/share, but believe the stock can reach way beyond that over our planned hold period of a decade or more.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell After Ark Invest's Trades?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell After Ark Invest's Trades?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-29 10:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457510-palantir-stock-buy-sell-ark-invests-trades>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a material holding for momentum investor Ark Invest, across multiple ETFs.\nWhenever Ark buys or sells Palantir in any quantity, social media commentators tend to over...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457510-palantir-stock-buy-sell-ark-invests-trades\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457510-palantir-stock-buy-sell-ark-invests-trades","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1164961983","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a material holding for momentum investor Ark Invest, across multiple ETFs.\nWhenever Ark buys or sells Palantir in any quantity, social media commentators tend to over-react, attempting to infer meaning where we believe there is none.\nPalantir remains a core long term holding in staff personal accounts. Our medium-term price target remains $44/share, but longer term we hope for far more.\nWe continue to rate the stock at Buy.\n\nSometimes A Software Company Is Just A Software Company\nThe origins of when a stock becomes viral are difficult to trace. Whether a release from a marketing lab into the wild, or whether a spontaneous transfer of attention from one kind of investor to another, time tends to shroud any kind of successful investigation. And so it is with Palantir Technologies(NYSE:PLTR).\nThis seemly boring enterprise software-and-services company, which in its business model is much like any other of the past thirty years, has become a social media sensation in its own right.\nLet's use the watcher count on StockTwits as a proxy measure of popularity. PLTR has 180k at the time of writing, which dwarfs other industry-leading headline names in the software business. 180k is a lot of people and/or bot-people. Let's compare it to other pillars of the software industry. How about Atlassian(NASDAQ:TEAM), champion of the no-sales-team high growth business model, leader in the development tools and project management sector? 10k watchers. OK, you might say, nobody has heard of TEAM unless you're some kind of devops nerd. Well, how about industry heavyweight, the original cloud name, Salesforce(NYSE:CRM)? 48k watchers. Less than a third of PLTR's watchers! In fact in terms of watcher count, PLTR more closely tracks meme stocks GME (224k) and AMC (346k). Less a software stock and more a motif for the YOLO generation.\nPalantir And Ark Invest\nThis kind of attention is why, when similarly Twitterati'd fund manager Ark Invest posts its selected daily trades, you see FinTwit over-reaction as regards to any moves in Palantir stock. \"Cathie [Ark Invest CEO, Cathie Wood] is selling!!!\" \"Cathie is loading up!!!\" etc. As longtime enterprise software investors this is mighty odd to us. There are few things more boring than enterprise software, and we speak as folks whose world is enterprise software.\nThat said, Ark is one of the more important funds in the tech market right now, and PLTR is certainly a meaningful holding for them. Here's the holdings in PLTR across the various Ark ETFs.\n\nSource: Arktrack.com\nThe thing is, whilst owning 35m shares of PLTR makes PLTR meaningful to Ark, Ark isn't that meaningful to PLTR, whose shares outstanding count stands at a little under 2bn (source - Ycharts.com). So when analyzing Palantir over the long term we think it best to use the traditional tools of fundamental and technical analysis, and ignore any FinTwit hoopla.\nPalantir Stock Valuation\nLet's take a look at Palantir's financial performance. The stock remains relatively new to market and so we have limited quarterlyhistoricals. As time goes by the quarterly seasonality of the business will become clearer. Here's what we have so far.\n\nSource:Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nPalantir is a high growth business, with revenue moving up at +49% year-on-year as of the most recent earnings (Q2, ending 30 June 2021). Gross margins are in line with expectations for a services-heavy business model; should they dip below 70% that ought to be a concern because it would likely mean the revenue is being driven by more bespoke installations and less productized installations, always a risk with this kind of huge-customer software company. Accounting profitability in the shape of EBITDA is solid at 22% TTM margins. Those profit margins are a little misleading however - a huge working capital outflow (the company is paying suppliers before it gets paid) means that whilst cashflow is positive in the last twelve months, unlevered pretax FCF stands at around one-sixth of EBITDA over the same period. Over time that has to correct upwards or one has to conclude that the EBITDA isn't real EBITDA. As the company grows, we would expect change in working capital to be somewhat negative each quarter - back to serving huge customers - but not to the degree that is currently the case. Something to keep an eye on if you own the stock or are thinking of doing so.\nFundamental valuation multiples are as follows, as of the most recent close:\n\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nIn the current environment paying 39x TTM revenue for 49% TTM revenue growth isn't terrible - that's cheaper than Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)for instance, which is growing at a similar rate and is cashflow negative - but this remains an elevated multiple on any standards and one which can come down fast if growth tails off. So come the Q3 numbers, the single most important number to look at is quarterly revenue. If the company can deliver a continued growth rate of say 40%-45% or better, it remains on the right track. A material deceleration toward 30%-35% is likely to hurt the stock in our view. Earnings, cashflow, all these other things do matter, but the quarterly revenue number matters the most for us - because over the long term if the company can grow at this rate, and simply manage its costs and cash collection competently, nothing will go too far awry.\nLet's now look at the stock price in and of itself, ignoring fundamentals.\nPLTR Stock Price\nStarting with a simple chart - here's how the stock has performed since it first burst forth onto the public market.\n\nSource: YCharts.com\nA remarkable performance so far vs. the major indices (in the form of their proxy ETFs, SPY and QQQ). Volatile, but remarkable.\nIn considering where the stock might head next, we think the Elliott Wave method can be of use. Given that PLTR is so volatile and that it is apparently an emotional stock - those watchers again - behavioral tools like wave analysis and Fibonacci retracement levels are particularly well suited we think.\nBelow we update a chart weposted a while back in our last article on Palantir.\nIf you read that August 13, 2021 note, you'll see that we called the bottom of the June-July correction at around $21 - we said it could fall to the next retracement level which would mean $19, but most likely, $21 was the bottom. So far that's proven to be the case, and the stock has moved up since then. The chart below has the same target prices as our August 13 chart, though we've moved the timeline out a little to reflect how the stock has traded since that note. We stand by the $44 near term target, though whether that is achieved in late 2021 per our August note, or early 2022 per the chart below, will have to stay in the realm of the unknowable for now. $44 is a purely technical target arising from our projection of that May-June 2021 Wave 1 to the 1.618 extension, a common peak of a subsequent Wave 3.\n\nSource: TradingView, Cestrian Analysis\nTo check the technical logic - if you backsolve that $44 into a fundamental valuation, the target isn't silly. Let's say that at 31 March 2022, TTM revenue is up 49% vs. 31 March 2021 - that would mean TTM revenue of $1.8bn. Let's say that by then there are 2bn shares outstanding. And let's say that net debt is unchanged from the 30 June 2021 number (to be clear, there should be more cash by then, but let's assume not). That gives us the following TTM Revenue multiple:\n\nSource: Company SEC filings, YCharts.com, Cestrian Analysis\nPLTR has traded around that level in late 2020 & early 2021, when the growth rate was lower (TTM revenue growth in the December-20 quarter was 40%).\n\nSource: YCharts.com\nSo whilst $44 is not a conservative target, we don't think it's unrealistic either. As a background assumption, we believe the S&P and Nasdaq will each move higher between now and year end, supporting an inflation in multiples for growth stocks. That's just our opinion of course, and you will no doubt factor that into your own work on this stock.\nIs PLTR A Good Long-Term Buy\nWe believe Palantir stock to be a compelling long term buy. If we step back from the noise we see the company achieving success in a very difficult vertical market - government - and developing what its users tell us is highly differentiated analytics technology to good effect in the enterprise. Financial fundamentals are strong - though we're critical of cash generation above, the company has fully $2.3bn net cash in the bank to tide it over - and we don't think the market for growth stocks will collapse anytime soon. All told, we remain at Buy on Palantir, re-iterate a medium term target of $44/share, but believe the stock can reach way beyond that over our planned hold period of a decade or more.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Is Palantir Stock A Buy Or Sell After Ark Invest's Trades?

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