社区

Here’s why the $Merck(MRK)$Covid 19 pill WILLNOT make the $Novavax(NVAX)$Covid 19 vaccine irrelevant. Novavax was saved from the brink of bankruptcy by successfully formulating a non-mRNA Covid 19 vaccine with high efficacy. Its stock price was running high for the most part of 2020 - 2021. That was until the news of the Merck Covid 19 pill made headlines in Sep/ Oct 2021. While public confidence in Novavax started to waver months earlier due to the pharmaceutical company’s repeated delays in filing for emergency use authorisation (EUA) from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) for its Covid 19 vaccine & the company’s stock price went through some wild fluctuations, there was no plunge in the company’s stock price before the news of the Merck Covid 19 pill. Then things worsen further with news that Novavax may be struggling to produce its Covid 19 vaccine to a certain level of purity and/or in large quantities. While Novavax has not come out to confirm the latest news, it is evident that there is the sentiment amongst some retail investors that Novavax is already heading for doom as the Merck Covid 19 pill will make the Novavax Covid 19 vaccine irrelevant in time to come. I almost bought this point of view but upon more careful reading of the newsI realised the Merck Covid 19 pill will not displacethe Novavax Covid 19 vaccine. Why? The Merck Covid 19 pill is a TREATMENT, not a vaccine, & we should not conflate treatments & vaccines. The Merck Covid 19 pill is to be used to TREAT those who are already down with mild to moderate Covid 19 & are at risk of severe illness/ death. Also, its efficacy at preventing hospitalisation & death at that stage is only around 50%. The Novavax Covid 19 vaccine on the other hand is to be used to PREVENT people from getting to the stage of hospitalisation/ death while their body are not under the attack of the virus. The vaccine’s efficacy is also around 80 to 90 percent. In addition, from what we are seeing from the Covid 19 vaccines that are already out in the market, the vaccines help with preventing even mild Covid 19 symptoms & this should be the case too for the Novavax Covid 19 vaccine. As such, the Merck Covid 19 pill should be compared with other Covid 19 treatments, such as Regeneron’s antibody cocktail & Gilead Sciences’ antiviral remdesivir, which are given as IV infusions & a lot more expensive (thousands of USD per infusion/ course as compared to hundreds of USD per course for Merck), & not Covid 19 vaccines. More valid concerns regarding Novavax are 1. whether the company is indeed running into manufacturing problems with its Covid 19 vaccine & attempting to hide them & 2. whether competitors like GlaxoSmithKline & Sanofi will release their Covid 19 vaccines before it. Otherwise, Novavax retailinvestors can choose to still be hopeful in the company as 1. many low-income nations are still waiting to get Covid 19 vaccines & 2. there seems to be strong demand in the U.S. & other countries for more non-mRNA Covid 19 vaccine options.