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2021-10-29

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Intel, Nvidia, Or AMD: Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?

Summary Intel reported a set of earnings that was pretty decent. However, the market was confused w

Intel, Nvidia, Or AMD: Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":854740197,"tweetId":"854740197","gmtCreate":1635487317883,"gmtModify":1635487318256,"author":{"id":3570689023160998,"authorId":3570689023160998,"authorIdStr":"3570689023160998","name":"您解释看看","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b01f4d9f64217e12e115de2fef0e1","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":17,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Tell me your opinion about this news...</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Tell me your opinion about this news...</body></html>","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854740197","repostId":1122237204,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122237204","pubTimestamp":1635476471,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122237204?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 11:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Intel, Nvidia, Or AMD: Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122237204","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIntel reported a set of earnings that was pretty decent. However, the market was confused w","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Intel reported a set of earnings that was pretty decent. However, the market was confused with its ambitious growth plans.</li>\n <li>Advanced Micro Devices continues its run of phenomenal results in FY21. Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co. is making the most out of Intel's stumbles.</li>\n <li>Nvidia will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company's growth momentum is expected to continue slowing down.</li>\n <li>We discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c8b907cc53a6667f686b7acaf873b0a\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) issued a fantastic FQ3 report card recently. The company also handily beat consensus estimates and reaffirmed AMD's position as one of the leading semiconductor companies.\nNotably, the company made gains while Intel (INTC) reported a set of results that we thought were actually pretty fine. There were some concerns over underwhelming data center performance, but it was expected. However, the market didn't like what Pat Gelsinger &amp; Co. telegraphed and thrashed the stock after earnings. Intel communicated what it would cost on its quest to retake its process node leadership. However, it seems that investors weren't sure about the company's ambitious plans. Coupled with weakened profitability and free cash flow prospects, some value-oriented investors seemed to have headed for the exit.\nNvidia (NVDA) will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company had previously guided for a strong quarter. Jensen Huang &amp; Co. see \"sequential growth&nbsp;driven largely by accelerating demand in data center.\" The company also expects growth in each of its three markets, particularly in gaming. Investors' expectations are also high given AMD's robust performance. Hence, investors have eagerly anticipated NVDA's earnings release as NVDA stock pushed through a new all-time high (ATH) this week.\nWe will discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now between them.\nINTC, NVDA, AMD Stock YTD Performance\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc276e3bd3b1b72a0413e8be2d14ebe3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC, NVDA, AMD stock YTD performance (as of 27 October 21).\nNVDA stock continues to enjoy a phenomenal year so far. The stock made a new ATH this week, as YTD returns surged to 87.3%. Bearish investors in NVDA can say all they want, but we have never adopted a bearish NVDA stock thesis. It just doesn't make sense. The stock has the best possible A+ in Seeking Alpha's momentum grade for the whole year. Hence, we really couldn't understand those bearish theses. AMD stock is in second place with a 33.3% YTD gain. It seems like the stock has lagged far behind NVDA stock's incredible performance. However, investors should consider the fact that AMD stock spent most of H1'21 in the red. Therefore, its huge momentum surge in H2'21 has been really impressive. Consequently, the stock's momentum is also given an A grade in Seeking Alpha.\nIn contrast, the perennial underperformer INTC stock continues to underperform. The stock started very brightly as it raced to a 40% YTD gain. However, its momentum has completely fizzled out. Currently, its YTD decline of 3.9% looks abysmal when compared to AMD stock and NVDA stock. In addition, Seeking Alpha also assigned it with a D+ rating in momentum.\nIntel FQ3 Report Card Is Telling Of Its Weakening Leadership\nThere's little doubt that AMD has made the most of its recent dominance over Intel. However, what's more concerning to Intel investors, and likewise encouraging to AMD investors, is the clarity provided by their respective CEOs.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f910460f850f7c0c3bd3508e0812fa7b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Intel LTM revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings\nIntel reported another underwhelming quarter, but we don't think it was unexpected. Sure, the company's data center business (DCG) continues to disappoint compared to NVDA and AMD. However, INTC investors shouldn't be surprised.\nDCG quarterly revenue YoY growth came in at 10% in FQ3. However, DCG revenue has been on a declining trend on a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis since FQ2'20.In a recent AMD article, we mentioned that Omdia estimated that AMD's data center share crossed 15% in Q2'21 for the first time in history. In retrospect, Intel had almost complete dominance in this segment just four years ago. It clearly shows how the critical stumbles from its former management have derailed its previously \"unassailable\" leadership. Now, Gelsinger &amp; Co. are left with the unenviable task of trying to overturn Intel's sinking fortunes. With AMD having assumed the technological leadership at the expense of Intel, it certainly looks like an \"easy bet\" which the company will likely continue to outperform.\nIntel's client computing group's (CCG) performance was underwhelming in FQ3. Its revenue fell by 1.9% YoY and 4.4% QoQ, respectively. Notably, it came at a time when 2021 saw a strong resurgence in PC sales.In a recent Apple(AAPL) article, we mentioned that Apple's Mac segment had performed very well in 2021. In just the first three FQs, Mac has exceeded its revenue on a per FY basis over the last three years. Its resurgence is also in line with the trend observed in the industry.\nCounterpoint Research noted that \"global PC shipments marked their sixth consecutive YoY growth in Q3 2021&nbsp;at 84.2 million units. This came despite the ongoing component shortages and other supply constraints.\" Despite that, the firm also emphasized that \"the 9.3% YoY growth during [Q3] implied decelerating PC shipment momentum after four consecutive quarters of double-digit YoY growth since Q3 2020.\"\nNotwithstanding, Mac seems to have picked up strongly in CQ3. IDC reported that&nbsp;Apple's YoY shipment growth in CQ2&nbsp;was 9.4%. Moreover, Counterpoint research pointed out that Mac YoY shipment growth accelerated to 10.6% in CQ3. Hence, it's interesting to note that Mac grew even faster than the industry average in CQ3. As a result, Mac's global market share grew to 8.7%.\nTherefore, it seems like Apple has been doing very well since it decoupled from Intel's chips. Even though Gelsinger remains optimistic about winning back Apple's business through \"better products\" in the future, the divorce looks to be \"finalized\" for now. But investors in semiconductor companies should remember that never say never when it comes to technological leadership. Intel is still a highly profitable company and therefore has the wherewithal and conviction to compete. Whether it can overturn AMD's and NVDA's leadership remains to be seen. But never write the company off so early on.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c622b359fd3a73cac53c0e4410177c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC and AMD LTM gross margins. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ\nPat Gelsinger has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to assume technological leadership. It's mainly predicated on its \"five process nodes in four years\" quest to assume foundry leadership from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). In addition, the company is also willing to \"reset\" its gross margins to compete with AMD and NVDA at the same time. Outgoing CFO George Davis emphasized:\n<blockquote>\n We expect to see our revenue growth accelerate to a 10% to 12% CAGR over the next 4 to 5 years. For gross margin, with the impact of our investment in capacity and the acceleration of our process technology, \n we expect gross margins between 51% and 53% over the next 2 to 3 yearsbefore moving upward. (from Intel Q3 earnings call)\n</blockquote>\nWe find it interesting. Yes, the investments for process leadership and capacity expansion will affect its profitability. But Intel recognizes that it's at least a five-year process. At this time, is the company going to let Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co. take all the glory while Intel works out its troubles? Obviously not. Pat recognizes that he needs a stop-gap solution. Short of saying \"we are cutting prices now\" to compete with AMD, this is as close as it gets.\nWe also highlighted in our previous AMD article (published on 20 September) that \"Intel is recently reported to be ready to lower the prices for its data center chips. The move was deemed necessary \"to lure back data center operators&nbsp;that have switched to rival Advanced Micro Devices.\" Otherwise, how can Gelsinger &amp; Co. be so confident in stopping the rot from AMD's continued success? Intel has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to increase revenue by a CAGR of 10% to 12% over the next four to five years. Intel is trying to transform itself back into a growth company. If you want to grow and don't have technological leadership, you must give up some profits. That makes absolute sense.\nThe good thing is, Intel is already a highly profitable company. Its gross margins had declined markedly from the days when it posted margins north of 60%. However, its LTM margin of 56.3% is still significantly higher than AMD's 46.8%. Therefore, Intel's plans are credible. The company will now go head-on to compete with AMD in pricing while investing in assuming foundry leadership. Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co., you have been cautioned.\nAMD Continues Its Gangbusters Growth\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fb460f1a24eeac1ff3e46cc0ebd78f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD quarterly revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5df5298fbc9733b0c0a8b1110c401ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD revenue segments YoY growth. Data source: Company filings\nThere's little doubt that Dr. Lisa Su &amp; Co. have made the most of Intel's absolute mess. The company has been firing on all cylinders as it outperformed estimates easily. It continues to report tremendous strength in all its segments. FQ3 saw Advanced Micro Devices report 43.9% YoY growth in revenue for its computing and graphics business. Moreover, its enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom (EESC) segment continues its phenomenal run as AMD posted YoY revenue growth of 68.9%. Therefore, AMD has certainly made the most of Intel's losses in data center. Moreover, its computing and graphics growth has also been fantastic. AMD has undoubtedly grown much faster than the market.\nIn fact, AMD continues to expect strong sequential growth into FQ4. AMD emphasized:\n<blockquote>\n We expect revenue to be approximately $4.5 billion, plus or minus $100 million, an increase of approximately \n 39% year-over-year and approximately 4% sequentially. The year-over-year increase is expected to be driven by growth across all businesses. The quarter-over-quarter increase is expected to be driven by higher server and semi-custom sales. For the full year 2021, \n we now expect revenue to increase approximately 65% over 2020, driven by growth across all businesses, up from the prior guidance of 60%. (from AMD FQ3 earnings call)\n</blockquote>\nFor a company that tells you that it expects a 65% YoY growth over FY20, it's clear it has achieved phenomenal results. Therefore, the market should reward AMD investors. AMD stock has clearly been outperforming the market after its early-year stumbles.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af9edf4c4d4b8055eee2f32456b6589d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ\nHowever, we think investors need to consider how AMD will likely perform moving forward. Following its outstanding FQ3 report card, consensus estimates have also been revised upwards. AMD is estimated to post a revenue CAGR of 30.2% and an EBITDA CAGR of 50.4%. Compared to the company's FY21 revenue YoY growth guidance of 65%, it's a marked deceleration.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/970fd9b4cebec404a6c9bcc8c5b18140\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD LTM revenue and EBITDA. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ\nImportantly, AMD has also grown its LTM revenue and EBITDA by a CAGR of 31.2% and 160% over the last four years, respectively. Therefore, AMD is unlikely to post such monstrous growth moving forward. As a result, investors need to taper their expectations when considering buying its stock. They can't be expecting AMD to continue growing at such phenomenal growth rates incessantly. We know it sounds good, but it's simply not sustainable.\nWe can also observe from its FQ3 performance. Its segments' YoY growth was the slowest in FQ3'21 compared to the previous two quarters. So it's not slow per se, but the growth seems to be decelerating. Therefore, AMD investors, you have been reminded.\nNvidia Is Expected To Post Slower Much Growth Than Before\nJensen Huang &amp; Co. will release its FQ3'22 report card on 17 November. Its earnings conferences have often been highly anticipated events in the past. Its investors, PC geeks, and gamers love NVDA.\nThe company guided for $6.8B in FQ3 revenue on its previous earnings call. Consensus estimates are also in line with the company's guidance. However,in our previous Nvidia article, we highlighted that the company's revenue growth seems to be decelerating across its main segments.\nDatacenter growth fell to 35% YoY in FQ2'22. Moreover, Gaming has also demonstrated signs of deceleration. Its growth in FQ2 also slowed to 85% YoY. As a result, the company's overall revenue growth slowed to 68.3% YoY in FQ2.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa0d4e579274e870b43dadcb6aa0be7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">NVDA actual and est. quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ\nNotably, even with the recently revised estimates, Nvidia is expected to post slower YoY growth in FQ3'22 and beyond. In fact, the deceleration looks alarming. Investors might have to taper their expectations of NVDA's gangbusters growth momentum moving forward. Nothing goes up in one straight line forever. Moving forward, revenue comps will get increasingly harder for Jensen Huang &amp; Co. to beat.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0873d94239c63b839b483644a71fe429\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">NVDA earnings beats/misses. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nNotwithstanding, we recognize that NVDA might also be sandbagging expectations in its guidance. We noted that NVDA has only missed one quarterly estimate in the last four years. It's an almost flawless performance. Notably, while NVDA has consistently outperformed its guidance, those beats were not incredibly massive. What we meant is investors should not totally disregard the consensus estimates as out of line. They have been pretty accurate over time. So while NVDA might have sandbagged its previous guidance to overdeliver potentially, they had not overdone it.\nWe understand that some NVDA investors are anticipating its TAM expansion into its software stack, omniverse applications, and cloud-gaming expansion.\nWe recognize the incredible efforts invested by NVDA to transform itself into an AI company that has a huge GPU dominance. Coupled with its DPU and CPU forays, the hardware strategy looks very impressive. Moreover, Nvidia's AI Enterprise now offers its complete AI enterprise software suite to its customers. With the number of developers on its platform currently, we think its leadership is secure. The ecosystem will get even stronger over time as more developers come on board. If the company could pull through its Arm acquisition, we think there's no way that Intel or AMD could catch up.\nThe main problem is that Nvidia couldn't/is not willing to put a timeline towhen they would derive meaningful revenues from its software stack.Nvidia could only add recently: \"But as [we] said, what [we] quoted to you for both NVIDIA enterprise as well as for Omniverse enterprise as being multibillion-dollar opportunities, we see these as very real opportunities, right?\"\nSo, Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97466fa7c05502ccb3d3fb348c1fbedd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">AMD stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c3575f8db9aafef9a106f36114a1b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">NVDA stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nAMD stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 29.7x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean read 30.8x. Therefore, investors can argue that AMD might seem fairly valued right now. In contrast, NVDA stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 53.5x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean is 41.6x. Thus, the stock is trading at about 28.6% above its 3Y mean. Hence, we think NVDA stock looks overvalued right now. Coupled with potentially slower revenue growth moving forward, a poor quarter might induce potential value compressions. Otherwise, a potential overcapacity problem in 2023 might also hit NVDA stock hard due to its rich valuation.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/467ed7eaf7cb4b7aed414494c2110be8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55716ccea92c6410434d2f1ab7d3ef15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">INTC stock LTM dividend yield. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ\nINTC stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 6.7x. It's markedly below its 3Y mean of 7.6x. Therefore, INTC is clearly a value play and not a growth play. It has also provided a respectable dividend yield for its investors over the years. As a result of its recent post-FQ3 sell-off, the annualized yield has recovered to 2.8%. INTC investors have been very comfortable sitting on its robust profitability and its solid dividend yields over the years. These value and dividend income investors don't invest in INTC stock for growth. They invest in it for its value and its dividends.\nPat Gelsinger's ambitious growth plans have thrown them a curveball that they didn't expect. When Intel communicated that these plans would have a discernible impact on its profitability, they feared for their dividends. Perhaps, Gelsinger is banking on a turnover of its investor base. The company could potentially be a huge winner if it succeeds on its growth roadmap. Given that the expectations are so low now, it doesn't even have to be immensely successful for the stock to be re-rated upwards. The huge difference in the growth premium between INTC and its faster growth peers is eye-catching. We think investors who have patience and are willing to ride out the short-term volatility might find INTC stock attractively valued right now. Coupled with a 2.8% dividend yield, it adds more gloss to its premise. Adding on a potential growth re-rating, the stock certainly looks attractive.\nDespite that, INTC's long-term momentum has remained weak. The stock's long-term price action has also been much weaker than AMD stock. We recall that Buffett emphasized that he has no qualms about paying a fair price for a fantastic company.\nTherefore, we think&nbsp;AMD stock represents our preferred Buy&nbsp;for now.INTC stock is also a Buy&nbsp;for dividend and value investors. At the same time, we&nbsp;retain our Neutral rating on NVDA.\nThis article was written by&nbsp;JR Research.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Intel, Nvidia, Or AMD: Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIntel, Nvidia, Or AMD: Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-29 11:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463134-intel-nvidia-amd-chip-stock-better-buy>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nIntel reported a set of earnings that was pretty decent. However, the market was confused with its ambitious growth plans.\nAdvanced Micro Devices continues its run of phenomenal results in ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463134-intel-nvidia-amd-chip-stock-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","NVDA":"英伟达","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4463134-intel-nvidia-amd-chip-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122237204","content_text":"Summary\n\nIntel reported a set of earnings that was pretty decent. However, the market was confused with its ambitious growth plans.\nAdvanced Micro Devices continues its run of phenomenal results in FY21. Dr. Lisa Su & Co. is making the most out of Intel's stumbles.\nNvidia will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company's growth momentum is expected to continue slowing down.\nWe discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now.\n\nSundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) issued a fantastic FQ3 report card recently. The company also handily beat consensus estimates and reaffirmed AMD's position as one of the leading semiconductor companies.\nNotably, the company made gains while Intel (INTC) reported a set of results that we thought were actually pretty fine. There were some concerns over underwhelming data center performance, but it was expected. However, the market didn't like what Pat Gelsinger & Co. telegraphed and thrashed the stock after earnings. Intel communicated what it would cost on its quest to retake its process node leadership. However, it seems that investors weren't sure about the company's ambitious plans. Coupled with weakened profitability and free cash flow prospects, some value-oriented investors seemed to have headed for the exit.\nNvidia (NVDA) will issue its FQ3 report card on 17 November. The company had previously guided for a strong quarter. Jensen Huang & Co. see \"sequential growth driven largely by accelerating demand in data center.\" The company also expects growth in each of its three markets, particularly in gaming. Investors' expectations are also high given AMD's robust performance. Hence, investors have eagerly anticipated NVDA's earnings release as NVDA stock pushed through a new all-time high (ATH) this week.\nWe will discuss which semiconductor stock is the better buy now between them.\nINTC, NVDA, AMD Stock YTD Performance\nINTC, NVDA, AMD stock YTD performance (as of 27 October 21).\nNVDA stock continues to enjoy a phenomenal year so far. The stock made a new ATH this week, as YTD returns surged to 87.3%. Bearish investors in NVDA can say all they want, but we have never adopted a bearish NVDA stock thesis. It just doesn't make sense. The stock has the best possible A+ in Seeking Alpha's momentum grade for the whole year. Hence, we really couldn't understand those bearish theses. AMD stock is in second place with a 33.3% YTD gain. It seems like the stock has lagged far behind NVDA stock's incredible performance. However, investors should consider the fact that AMD stock spent most of H1'21 in the red. Therefore, its huge momentum surge in H2'21 has been really impressive. Consequently, the stock's momentum is also given an A grade in Seeking Alpha.\nIn contrast, the perennial underperformer INTC stock continues to underperform. The stock started very brightly as it raced to a 40% YTD gain. However, its momentum has completely fizzled out. Currently, its YTD decline of 3.9% looks abysmal when compared to AMD stock and NVDA stock. In addition, Seeking Alpha also assigned it with a D+ rating in momentum.\nIntel FQ3 Report Card Is Telling Of Its Weakening Leadership\nThere's little doubt that AMD has made the most of its recent dominance over Intel. However, what's more concerning to Intel investors, and likewise encouraging to AMD investors, is the clarity provided by their respective CEOs.\nIntel LTM revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings\nIntel reported another underwhelming quarter, but we don't think it was unexpected. Sure, the company's data center business (DCG) continues to disappoint compared to NVDA and AMD. However, INTC investors shouldn't be surprised.\nDCG quarterly revenue YoY growth came in at 10% in FQ3. However, DCG revenue has been on a declining trend on a last-twelve-months (LTM) basis since FQ2'20.In a recent AMD article, we mentioned that Omdia estimated that AMD's data center share crossed 15% in Q2'21 for the first time in history. In retrospect, Intel had almost complete dominance in this segment just four years ago. It clearly shows how the critical stumbles from its former management have derailed its previously \"unassailable\" leadership. Now, Gelsinger & Co. are left with the unenviable task of trying to overturn Intel's sinking fortunes. With AMD having assumed the technological leadership at the expense of Intel, it certainly looks like an \"easy bet\" which the company will likely continue to outperform.\nIntel's client computing group's (CCG) performance was underwhelming in FQ3. Its revenue fell by 1.9% YoY and 4.4% QoQ, respectively. Notably, it came at a time when 2021 saw a strong resurgence in PC sales.In a recent Apple(AAPL) article, we mentioned that Apple's Mac segment had performed very well in 2021. In just the first three FQs, Mac has exceeded its revenue on a per FY basis over the last three years. Its resurgence is also in line with the trend observed in the industry.\nCounterpoint Research noted that \"global PC shipments marked their sixth consecutive YoY growth in Q3 2021 at 84.2 million units. This came despite the ongoing component shortages and other supply constraints.\" Despite that, the firm also emphasized that \"the 9.3% YoY growth during [Q3] implied decelerating PC shipment momentum after four consecutive quarters of double-digit YoY growth since Q3 2020.\"\nNotwithstanding, Mac seems to have picked up strongly in CQ3. IDC reported that Apple's YoY shipment growth in CQ2 was 9.4%. Moreover, Counterpoint research pointed out that Mac YoY shipment growth accelerated to 10.6% in CQ3. Hence, it's interesting to note that Mac grew even faster than the industry average in CQ3. As a result, Mac's global market share grew to 8.7%.\nTherefore, it seems like Apple has been doing very well since it decoupled from Intel's chips. Even though Gelsinger remains optimistic about winning back Apple's business through \"better products\" in the future, the divorce looks to be \"finalized\" for now. But investors in semiconductor companies should remember that never say never when it comes to technological leadership. Intel is still a highly profitable company and therefore has the wherewithal and conviction to compete. Whether it can overturn AMD's and NVDA's leadership remains to be seen. But never write the company off so early on.\nINTC and AMD LTM gross margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nPat Gelsinger has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to assume technological leadership. It's mainly predicated on its \"five process nodes in four years\" quest to assume foundry leadership from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). In addition, the company is also willing to \"reset\" its gross margins to compete with AMD and NVDA at the same time. Outgoing CFO George Davis emphasized:\n\nWe expect to see our revenue growth accelerate to a 10% to 12% CAGR over the next 4 to 5 years. For gross margin, with the impact of our investment in capacity and the acceleration of our process technology, \n we expect gross margins between 51% and 53% over the next 2 to 3 yearsbefore moving upward. (from Intel Q3 earnings call)\n\nWe find it interesting. Yes, the investments for process leadership and capacity expansion will affect its profitability. But Intel recognizes that it's at least a five-year process. At this time, is the company going to let Dr. Lisa Su & Co. take all the glory while Intel works out its troubles? Obviously not. Pat recognizes that he needs a stop-gap solution. Short of saying \"we are cutting prices now\" to compete with AMD, this is as close as it gets.\nWe also highlighted in our previous AMD article (published on 20 September) that \"Intel is recently reported to be ready to lower the prices for its data center chips. The move was deemed necessary \"to lure back data center operators that have switched to rival Advanced Micro Devices.\" Otherwise, how can Gelsinger & Co. be so confident in stopping the rot from AMD's continued success? Intel has telegraphed a highly ambitious plan to increase revenue by a CAGR of 10% to 12% over the next four to five years. Intel is trying to transform itself back into a growth company. If you want to grow and don't have technological leadership, you must give up some profits. That makes absolute sense.\nThe good thing is, Intel is already a highly profitable company. Its gross margins had declined markedly from the days when it posted margins north of 60%. However, its LTM margin of 56.3% is still significantly higher than AMD's 46.8%. Therefore, Intel's plans are credible. The company will now go head-on to compete with AMD in pricing while investing in assuming foundry leadership. Dr. Lisa Su & Co., you have been cautioned.\nAMD Continues Its Gangbusters Growth\nAMD quarterly revenue by segment. Data source: Company filings\nAMD revenue segments YoY growth. Data source: Company filings\nThere's little doubt that Dr. Lisa Su & Co. have made the most of Intel's absolute mess. The company has been firing on all cylinders as it outperformed estimates easily. It continues to report tremendous strength in all its segments. FQ3 saw Advanced Micro Devices report 43.9% YoY growth in revenue for its computing and graphics business. Moreover, its enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom (EESC) segment continues its phenomenal run as AMD posted YoY revenue growth of 68.9%. Therefore, AMD has certainly made the most of Intel's losses in data center. Moreover, its computing and graphics growth has also been fantastic. AMD has undoubtedly grown much faster than the market.\nIn fact, AMD continues to expect strong sequential growth into FQ4. AMD emphasized:\n\n We expect revenue to be approximately $4.5 billion, plus or minus $100 million, an increase of approximately \n 39% year-over-year and approximately 4% sequentially. The year-over-year increase is expected to be driven by growth across all businesses. The quarter-over-quarter increase is expected to be driven by higher server and semi-custom sales. For the full year 2021, \n we now expect revenue to increase approximately 65% over 2020, driven by growth across all businesses, up from the prior guidance of 60%. (from AMD FQ3 earnings call)\n\nFor a company that tells you that it expects a 65% YoY growth over FY20, it's clear it has achieved phenomenal results. Therefore, the market should reward AMD investors. AMD stock has clearly been outperforming the market after its early-year stumbles.\nAMD est. revenue and EBITDA mean consensus. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nHowever, we think investors need to consider how AMD will likely perform moving forward. Following its outstanding FQ3 report card, consensus estimates have also been revised upwards. AMD is estimated to post a revenue CAGR of 30.2% and an EBITDA CAGR of 50.4%. Compared to the company's FY21 revenue YoY growth guidance of 65%, it's a marked deceleration.\nAMD LTM revenue and EBITDA. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nImportantly, AMD has also grown its LTM revenue and EBITDA by a CAGR of 31.2% and 160% over the last four years, respectively. Therefore, AMD is unlikely to post such monstrous growth moving forward. As a result, investors need to taper their expectations when considering buying its stock. They can't be expecting AMD to continue growing at such phenomenal growth rates incessantly. We know it sounds good, but it's simply not sustainable.\nWe can also observe from its FQ3 performance. Its segments' YoY growth was the slowest in FQ3'21 compared to the previous two quarters. So it's not slow per se, but the growth seems to be decelerating. Therefore, AMD investors, you have been reminded.\nNvidia Is Expected To Post Slower Much Growth Than Before\nJensen Huang & Co. will release its FQ3'22 report card on 17 November. Its earnings conferences have often been highly anticipated events in the past. Its investors, PC geeks, and gamers love NVDA.\nThe company guided for $6.8B in FQ3 revenue on its previous earnings call. Consensus estimates are also in line with the company's guidance. However,in our previous Nvidia article, we highlighted that the company's revenue growth seems to be decelerating across its main segments.\nDatacenter growth fell to 35% YoY in FQ2'22. Moreover, Gaming has also demonstrated signs of deceleration. Its growth in FQ2 also slowed to 85% YoY. As a result, the company's overall revenue growth slowed to 68.3% YoY in FQ2.\nNVDA actual and est. quarterly revenue YoY growth. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNotably, even with the recently revised estimates, Nvidia is expected to post slower YoY growth in FQ3'22 and beyond. In fact, the deceleration looks alarming. Investors might have to taper their expectations of NVDA's gangbusters growth momentum moving forward. Nothing goes up in one straight line forever. Moving forward, revenue comps will get increasingly harder for Jensen Huang & Co. to beat.\nNVDA earnings beats/misses. Source: Seeking Alpha Premium\nNotwithstanding, we recognize that NVDA might also be sandbagging expectations in its guidance. We noted that NVDA has only missed one quarterly estimate in the last four years. It's an almost flawless performance. Notably, while NVDA has consistently outperformed its guidance, those beats were not incredibly massive. What we meant is investors should not totally disregard the consensus estimates as out of line. They have been pretty accurate over time. So while NVDA might have sandbagged its previous guidance to overdeliver potentially, they had not overdone it.\nWe understand that some NVDA investors are anticipating its TAM expansion into its software stack, omniverse applications, and cloud-gaming expansion.\nWe recognize the incredible efforts invested by NVDA to transform itself into an AI company that has a huge GPU dominance. Coupled with its DPU and CPU forays, the hardware strategy looks very impressive. Moreover, Nvidia's AI Enterprise now offers its complete AI enterprise software suite to its customers. With the number of developers on its platform currently, we think its leadership is secure. The ecosystem will get even stronger over time as more developers come on board. If the company could pull through its Arm acquisition, we think there's no way that Intel or AMD could catch up.\nThe main problem is that Nvidia couldn't/is not willing to put a timeline towhen they would derive meaningful revenues from its software stack.Nvidia could only add recently: \"But as [we] said, what [we] quoted to you for both NVIDIA enterprise as well as for Omniverse enterprise as being multibillion-dollar opportunities, we see these as very real opportunities, right?\"\nSo, Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?\nAMD stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nNVDA stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nAMD stock currently trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 29.7x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean read 30.8x. Therefore, investors can argue that AMD might seem fairly valued right now. In contrast, NVDA stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 53.5x. Its 3Y NTM EBITDA mean is 41.6x. Thus, the stock is trading at about 28.6% above its 3Y mean. Hence, we think NVDA stock looks overvalued right now. Coupled with potentially slower revenue growth moving forward, a poor quarter might induce potential value compressions. Otherwise, a potential overcapacity problem in 2023 might also hit NVDA stock hard due to its rich valuation.\nINTC stock EV/NTM EBITDA 3Y mean.\nINTC stock LTM dividend yield. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nINTC stock trades at an EV/NTM EBITDA of 6.7x. It's markedly below its 3Y mean of 7.6x. Therefore, INTC is clearly a value play and not a growth play. It has also provided a respectable dividend yield for its investors over the years. As a result of its recent post-FQ3 sell-off, the annualized yield has recovered to 2.8%. INTC investors have been very comfortable sitting on its robust profitability and its solid dividend yields over the years. These value and dividend income investors don't invest in INTC stock for growth. They invest in it for its value and its dividends.\nPat Gelsinger's ambitious growth plans have thrown them a curveball that they didn't expect. When Intel communicated that these plans would have a discernible impact on its profitability, they feared for their dividends. Perhaps, Gelsinger is banking on a turnover of its investor base. The company could potentially be a huge winner if it succeeds on its growth roadmap. Given that the expectations are so low now, it doesn't even have to be immensely successful for the stock to be re-rated upwards. The huge difference in the growth premium between INTC and its faster growth peers is eye-catching. We think investors who have patience and are willing to ride out the short-term volatility might find INTC stock attractively valued right now. Coupled with a 2.8% dividend yield, it adds more gloss to its premise. Adding on a potential growth re-rating, the stock certainly looks attractive.\nDespite that, INTC's long-term momentum has remained weak. The stock's long-term price action has also been much weaker than AMD stock. We recall that Buffett emphasized that he has no qualms about paying a fair price for a fantastic company.\nTherefore, we think AMD stock represents our preferred Buy for now.INTC stock is also a Buy for dividend and value investors. At the same time, we retain our Neutral rating on NVDA.\nThis article was written by JR Research.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":33,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Intel, Nvidia, Or AMD: Which Chip Stock Is The Better Buy?

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