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2021-11-04

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Fed Risks Repeating Past Mistakes in Calling Full Employment

The Federal Reserve has had a lot of trouble over the years deciding how hot to let the job market r

Fed Risks Repeating Past Mistakes in Calling Full Employment

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In the late 1960s itwaited too long, and the result was a wage-price spiral that helped send inflation into double digits during the 1970s. In the mid-2010s it was too quick off the mark, temporarily stifling economic growth and delaying a full-fledged recovery of the labor market until the end of the decade.</p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues may soon have to make a call on whether the rebound from the pandemic has brought us to maximum employment. Their task is made more difficult by the mixed signals emanating from the job market, which has10.4 million unfilled openingsbut 5 million fewer people on payrolls than before the pandemic.</p>\n<p>The&nbsp;current bout of inflation&nbsp;further complicates their discussions. Prices are rising more than two times faster than the central bank’s 2% goal. Fed officials are betting that the pace will slow when supply chain snafus are resolved, but the danger is that inflation could become embedded via a feedback loop: A tight labor market compels employers to raise pay, and then companies hike prices to recoup the higher labor costs. Wages rose by 4.2% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 2001, according to one government gauge. “I do worry that inflation risks have risen significantly,” says Brandeis University professor Stephen Cecchetti.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6226ab93b301438fada6a46d0f7a154\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efc8f6604b5ee82f3065bc4f9e10e7bd\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While Powell has acknowledged the labor market is “very tight by many measures,” he expects that many of the more than the millions of Americans on the sidelines will trickle back in as Covid-19’s latest wave subsides. That influx of workers should take pressure off wages—and inflation—and pave the way for a fall in unemployment back to the half-century lows that prevailed before the pandemic. “In the next two, three, four months we’re going to see a lot of jobs growth as delta moves away, because people are going to come back in and take those open positions,” says Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.</p>\n<p>But what if Covid has wrought more permanent changes to the labor market? A recent St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank study found thatmore than 3 million Americans retired earlybecause of the crisis. Also, some service jobs, such as those at downtown restaurants that used to cater to office workers or at hotels once packed with travelers, may be gone forever. In Las Vegas, “we do know there are about 50,000 jobs that just are not going to come back” in casinos and supporting industries, Elisa Cafferata, director of Nevada’s Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation,toldNational Public Radio on Oct. 24. If the Fed were to keep interest rates low for longer on the expectation that those and other missing jobs might return, it might inadvertently fuel inflation.</p>\n<p>“This idea that many people have, that somehow the pre-Covid unemployment rate is a relevant benchmark or that the pre-Covid employment ratio is a relevant benchmark, that’s been blown out of the water,” says former Treasury Secretary and Bloomberg contributor Lawrence Summers.</p>\n<p>Tom Gimbel, who has a ground-level view as chief executive officer of staffing agency LaSalle Network, says that in some ways the labor market is tighter than it was in 2019. Setting aside job losses in the face-to-face service industries directly affected by Covid, “unemployment is at historic lows in white- and blue-collar America,” he says.</p>\n<p>Part of the problem the Fed faces is that economists can’t tell what level of employment will trigger inflation in advance. “We don’t know what it is until we see it,” says Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Corp. “And the way we see it is by observing wage increases” that are persistent and not just one-off hikes.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Risks Repeating Past Mistakes in Calling Full Employment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Risks Repeating Past Mistakes in Calling Full Employment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-04 18:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/jerome-powell-fed-risk-inflation-overshoot-in-calling-full-employment><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has had a lot of trouble over the years deciding how hot to let the job market run before raising interest rates. In the late 1960s itwaited too long, and the result was a wage-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/jerome-powell-fed-risk-inflation-overshoot-in-calling-full-employment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/jerome-powell-fed-risk-inflation-overshoot-in-calling-full-employment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155973454","content_text":"The Federal Reserve has had a lot of trouble over the years deciding how hot to let the job market run before raising interest rates. In the late 1960s itwaited too long, and the result was a wage-price spiral that helped send inflation into double digits during the 1970s. In the mid-2010s it was too quick off the mark, temporarily stifling economic growth and delaying a full-fledged recovery of the labor market until the end of the decade.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues may soon have to make a call on whether the rebound from the pandemic has brought us to maximum employment. Their task is made more difficult by the mixed signals emanating from the job market, which has10.4 million unfilled openingsbut 5 million fewer people on payrolls than before the pandemic.\nThe current bout of inflation further complicates their discussions. Prices are rising more than two times faster than the central bank’s 2% goal. Fed officials are betting that the pace will slow when supply chain snafus are resolved, but the danger is that inflation could become embedded via a feedback loop: A tight labor market compels employers to raise pay, and then companies hike prices to recoup the higher labor costs. Wages rose by 4.2% in the third quarter from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 2001, according to one government gauge. “I do worry that inflation risks have risen significantly,” says Brandeis University professor Stephen Cecchetti.\nWhile Powell has acknowledged the labor market is “very tight by many measures,” he expects that many of the more than the millions of Americans on the sidelines will trickle back in as Covid-19’s latest wave subsides. That influx of workers should take pressure off wages—and inflation—and pave the way for a fall in unemployment back to the half-century lows that prevailed before the pandemic. “In the next two, three, four months we’re going to see a lot of jobs growth as delta moves away, because people are going to come back in and take those open positions,” says Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.\nBut what if Covid has wrought more permanent changes to the labor market? A recent St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank study found thatmore than 3 million Americans retired earlybecause of the crisis. Also, some service jobs, such as those at downtown restaurants that used to cater to office workers or at hotels once packed with travelers, may be gone forever. In Las Vegas, “we do know there are about 50,000 jobs that just are not going to come back” in casinos and supporting industries, Elisa Cafferata, director of Nevada’s Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation,toldNational Public Radio on Oct. 24. If the Fed were to keep interest rates low for longer on the expectation that those and other missing jobs might return, it might inadvertently fuel inflation.\n“This idea that many people have, that somehow the pre-Covid unemployment rate is a relevant benchmark or that the pre-Covid employment ratio is a relevant benchmark, that’s been blown out of the water,” says former Treasury Secretary and Bloomberg contributor Lawrence Summers.\nTom Gimbel, who has a ground-level view as chief executive officer of staffing agency LaSalle Network, says that in some ways the labor market is tighter than it was in 2019. Setting aside job losses in the face-to-face service industries directly affected by Covid, “unemployment is at historic lows in white- and blue-collar America,” he says.\nPart of the problem the Fed faces is that economists can’t tell what level of employment will trigger inflation in advance. “We don’t know what it is until we see it,” says Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America Corp. “And the way we see it is by observing wage increases” that are persistent and not just one-off hikes.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Fed Risks Repeating Past Mistakes in Calling Full Employment

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