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2021-08-23

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Where's the price of Bitcoin going? Money supply growth may give a clue

It may seem ironic that, the movement of dollars and bitcoin's (BTC-USD) price are somehow linked, b

Where's the price of Bitcoin going? Money supply growth may give a clue

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Money supply growth may give a clue","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124774000","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"It may seem ironic that, the movement of dollars and bitcoin's (BTC-USD) price are somehow linked, b","content":"<ul>\n <li>It may seem ironic that, the movement of dollars and bitcoin's (BTC-USD) price are somehow linked, but historical data seems to suggest that money that is being circulated throughout the U.S. economy serves as an indicator for what the direction for the price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will be based on historical data.</li>\n <li>The relationship between U.S. M2 money supply (a broad measure of cash and time deposits held by the public)&nbsp;and Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is more intact one would expect, however;</li>\n <li>Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has been diverging from the deceleration in money supply since it recovered to $47.5K on Friday, from $30K in end-July.</li>\n <li>Still, as M2 growth continues to fade, historical trends suggest that the largest cryptocurrency has plentiful downside price risk ahead.</li>\n <li>M2 money supply Y/Y growth rate peaked at 27.2% in mid-February, just about two months before Bitcoin (BTC-USD) peaked at $65.5K in mid-April.</li>\n <li>This compares to an M2 growth rate of 11.82% as of July 5 of this year. Prior to the pandemic, M2 was growing at a mere 6%-7% annualized rate.</li>\n <li>Despite Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) recent rally, digital asset investment products saw a sixth consecutive week of outflows for the week ended Aug. 13, the longest run of consecutive outflows since January 2018, CoinShares Investment Strategist James Butterfill writes in ablog.</li>\n <li>Investment product volumes are at $3.1B per week, compared with $7B in May, Butterfill notes.</li>\n <li>Another risk that impacts digital asset flows other than typical seasonal effects is regulatory intervention such as the provision in the U.S. infrastructure bill, which requires brokers of digital assets toreport gains from trading to the Internal Revenue Service.</li>\n <li>For the week ended Aug. 13, hedge funds continue to cut their net short positions in Bitcoin to an 11-week low, Hedgopia writes in atweet. Net shorts are still elevated but down from its peak in mid-June, implying additional downside risk for BTC.</li>\n <li><b>Digging deeper into the liquidity trap:</b></li>\n <li>Although money supply continues to reach new record highs, it is doing so at a less rapid pace, however, the Y/Y growth rate of the velocity of M2 money supply (a measure of how much GDP is generated per dollar of M2 money supply) is above pre-pandemic levels.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7322b4c9a965d71f93cb5325ebfda50a\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></li>\n <li>Still, money velocity remains near historical lows as dollars are trapped in financial assets, which does not contribute to productivity growth since dollars aren't being circulated throughout the economy.</li>\n <li>Large scale government transfers and quantitative easing both contribute to the rising money supply, which then triggers diminishing gains in GDP output but triggers asset price inflation throughout financial markets.</li>\n <li>In response to fiscal and monetary policy, money velocity has crashed to levels not seen since World War II.&nbsp;<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9687d8fcebb51981a19cde89ad49eef1\" tg-width=\"1168\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></li>\n <li>Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is clearly the centerpiece for the crypto market as it recently reached a $2T market capitalization. Since the $2T can be converted into fiat currency, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) may represent a broad measure of money just like M2 money supply but at asmaller scale.</li>\n <li>As of June, there was $20.4T in M2 money stock. The growth in M2 from February 2020 to May 2020 was much larger than in the period fromJune 2020 to currently. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) also rose in those time periods.</li>\n <li>Earlier this week, Michael Saylor says Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will be a$100T asset class that everybody needs.</li>\n <li>In June, El Salvador to make Bitcoin (BTC-USD)legal tender.</li>\n</ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where's the price of Bitcoin going? Money supply growth may give a clue</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere's the price of Bitcoin going? Money supply growth may give a clue\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-23 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3732415-liquidity-shortage-calls-for-lower-bitcoin-price><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It may seem ironic that, the movement of dollars and bitcoin's (BTC-USD) price are somehow linked, but historical data seems to suggest that money that is being circulated throughout the U.S. economy ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3732415-liquidity-shortage-calls-for-lower-bitcoin-price\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3732415-liquidity-shortage-calls-for-lower-bitcoin-price","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1124774000","content_text":"It may seem ironic that, the movement of dollars and bitcoin's (BTC-USD) price are somehow linked, but historical data seems to suggest that money that is being circulated throughout the U.S. economy serves as an indicator for what the direction for the price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will be based on historical data.\nThe relationship between U.S. M2 money supply (a broad measure of cash and time deposits held by the public) and Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is more intact one would expect, however;\nBitcoin (BTC-USD) has been diverging from the deceleration in money supply since it recovered to $47.5K on Friday, from $30K in end-July.\nStill, as M2 growth continues to fade, historical trends suggest that the largest cryptocurrency has plentiful downside price risk ahead.\nM2 money supply Y/Y growth rate peaked at 27.2% in mid-February, just about two months before Bitcoin (BTC-USD) peaked at $65.5K in mid-April.\nThis compares to an M2 growth rate of 11.82% as of July 5 of this year. Prior to the pandemic, M2 was growing at a mere 6%-7% annualized rate.\nDespite Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) recent rally, digital asset investment products saw a sixth consecutive week of outflows for the week ended Aug. 13, the longest run of consecutive outflows since January 2018, CoinShares Investment Strategist James Butterfill writes in ablog.\nInvestment product volumes are at $3.1B per week, compared with $7B in May, Butterfill notes.\nAnother risk that impacts digital asset flows other than typical seasonal effects is regulatory intervention such as the provision in the U.S. infrastructure bill, which requires brokers of digital assets toreport gains from trading to the Internal Revenue Service.\nFor the week ended Aug. 13, hedge funds continue to cut their net short positions in Bitcoin to an 11-week low, Hedgopia writes in atweet. Net shorts are still elevated but down from its peak in mid-June, implying additional downside risk for BTC.\nDigging deeper into the liquidity trap:\nAlthough money supply continues to reach new record highs, it is doing so at a less rapid pace, however, the Y/Y growth rate of the velocity of M2 money supply (a measure of how much GDP is generated per dollar of M2 money supply) is above pre-pandemic levels.\nStill, money velocity remains near historical lows as dollars are trapped in financial assets, which does not contribute to productivity growth since dollars aren't being circulated throughout the economy.\nLarge scale government transfers and quantitative easing both contribute to the rising money supply, which then triggers diminishing gains in GDP output but triggers asset price inflation throughout financial markets.\nIn response to fiscal and monetary policy, money velocity has crashed to levels not seen since World War II. \nBitcoin (BTC-USD) is clearly the centerpiece for the crypto market as it recently reached a $2T market capitalization. Since the $2T can be converted into fiat currency, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) may represent a broad measure of money just like M2 money supply but at asmaller scale.\nAs of June, there was $20.4T in M2 money stock. The growth in M2 from February 2020 to May 2020 was much larger than in the period fromJune 2020 to currently. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) also rose in those time periods.\nEarlier this week, Michael Saylor says Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will be a$100T asset class that everybody needs.\nIn June, El Salvador to make Bitcoin (BTC-USD)legal tender.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":7,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Where's the price of Bitcoin going? Money supply growth may give a clue

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