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2021-08-24

Rational analysis, irrational price.

Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real

Summary Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150. 5G iPhone units sold in FY

Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":834674722,"tweetId":"834674722","gmtCreate":1629803023066,"gmtModify":1631891580831,"author":{"id":4090049677785040,"idStr":"4090049677785040","authorId":4090049677785040,"authorIdStr":"4090049677785040","name":"Tomahawk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Rational analysis, irrational price.&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Rational analysis, irrational price.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834674722","repostId":1104413070,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104413070","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629776596,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104413070?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-24 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104413070","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>Apple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.</li>\n <li>5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.</li>\n <li>Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.</li>\n</ul>\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2833adb73160ceb3c63fe72432275f37\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c80ba648538a7ec2481f78d288a21089\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6e1270cfc2e38d684e537fbccbca74f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"168\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f37f5c091cf6d63d100cf23afd6d94\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n<blockquote>\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n</blockquote>\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart&nbsp;highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df98a198f9efe54054ca28995635b11c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: The $150 Struggle Is Real\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-24 11:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4451389-apple-the-150-struggle-is-real","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1104413070","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple is struggling to push past a ceiling on the stock at $150.\n5G iPhone units sold in FY21 so far make for a high hurdle in FY22.\nThe stock trades at an insanely 27x FY22 EPS estimates with minimal growth rates going forward.\nLooking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.\n\nThe COVID-19 work-from-home economy of 2020 provided a massive boost to technology companies that won't repeat over the next year.Apple(AAPL) was one of the biggest beneficiaries of forced technology spending over the last year with workers and students needing more computing power at home. My investment thesis is Bearish with the stock pressing towards all-time highs at $150 while business growth is decelerating.\nSource:FinViz\nRecency Bias\nOne of the biggest mistakes made in the stock market is recency bias. An investor will naturally overweight the recent results of a business in deriving the correct current valuation for an equity.\nThe current stock price is a prime example for Apple. The tech. giant has a huge history of growing over time, but Apple has also had a couple of periods in the last decade where revenues declined.\nThe recent accelerated growth and shift to recurring services shouldn't alter one's view that Apple is still product-focused and will constantly run into down cycles. Investors must consider these likely outcomes when valuing the stock, but the current valuation is based on a recency bias of elevated growth in the last year.\nData byYCharts\nEven after another sterling quarter, analyst estimates are still forecasting a period of up to 4 years where Apple doesn't generate revenue growth in excess of 6%. TheFQ3'21 resultswere blow away numbers with revenues topping $80 billion and beating estimates by over $8 billion.\nSource: Seeking Alphaearnings estimates\nThe problem is that Apple had a nearly perfect quarter. The company admitted that Services revenue won't repeat the 33% growth in the June quarter and these tough comps are problematic for growth in future periods. Investors should easily understand that any growth after reporting a year with 33% growth is impressive, but some post covid slowdowns shouldn't be surprising.\nRight now though, Apple is still priced for excessive growth. A lot of the stock price gains in the last few years are attributed all to expanding P/E multiples. One only has to go back to 2016 for when Apple only traded at 10x trailing earnings. The stock now trades at nearly 30x trailing earnings, or nearly 3x the multiple from just 5 years ago.\nData byYCharts\nIf Apple only traded at 15x trailing earnings, the stock would trade closer to $75, not $150. For this reason, the stock has struggled to break above $150 for a while now.\nWhile the market forecasts 3% revenue growth for FY22, Citi analyst Wamsi Mohanmade it clearreal risk exists for Apple to actually report revenue and gross profit dollars down YoY in the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year:\n\n Apple could be faced with the dual headwinds of tougher comps and weaker demand in Hardware only modestly offset by any Services re-acceleration. Revenue growth for F4Q was guided lower than the 36% y/y growth in F3Q, but the upcoming Dec, March and now even June quarters could be down y/y in revs and gross profit dollars given several headwinds.\n\niPhone 5G Cycle\nHistory tells us that Apple regularly has these product cycles and covid lockdowns should accelerate the likelihood of a future quarter with trough numbers. In addition, the 5G iPhone cycle should advance these normal cycles with sales pushed from the normal quarter into the December quarter last year. Normal sales for the iPhone 13 in the September quarter will accelerate the tough comps in the December quarter and on into FY22.\nTheCounterpoint chart highlights how the iPhone 12/5G cycle has elevated sales to a level where Apple faces tough comps in FY22. Not only were FQ1'21 sales elevated, but the FQ2'21/FQ3'21 units sold were far in excess of the prior two years.\nNo real explanation exists for higher sales other than covid demand pulled forward and the 5G cycle. Even normal market growth wouldn't lead to unit sales surging somewhere in the 50% range for the March and June quarters from prior-year levels.\nInvestors really have to question whether Apple can sell over 60 million units again in the March quarter and another 50 million units in the June quarter. Even selling iPhones at higher ASPs might not be enough to offset some declines in units sold.\nThe crazy part here is that historical norms support Apple reporting some tough comps in the next year and going on to substantial growth in the next decade. The company has Services revenues up to $17.5 billion in quarterly sales accounting for some 21% of sales for the first 9 months of FY21.\nApple is poised to roll these recurring revenues into more consistent growth, but the growth rates will be as annual revenues top $400 billion. Without the recency bias of the last year, investors would understand this concept and appropriately value the stock at a more normal valuation of ~15x future earnings.\nIf the tech giant earns $5.92 in even FY23, the stock would only trade at $89 using a 15x multiple. Remember, one would normally question whether Apple even deserves a 15x forward multiple when earnings are only forecast to grow at a 5% clip in FY23. A stock usually struggles to trade at forward P/E multiples of 2x the growth rate, not 3x the growth rate.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that investors should clearly understand why Apple is struggling to push beyond $150. The stock is already insanely expensive for the normalized growth rates going forward and the real risk that the tech giant actually reports a few quarters where revenues decline.\nInvestors should be selling Apple at $150, not looking to buy even more shares at a price where the annualized returns should be weak.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":33,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Apple: The $150 Struggle Is Real

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