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2021-08-18

Nvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?

NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.While the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.That said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!NVIDIA Corp. reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.NVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands in three

Nvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":831812099,"tweetId":"831812099","gmtCreate":1629299739611,"gmtModify":1633685849688,"author":{"id":3584790043361762,"idStr":"3584790043361762","authorId":3584790043361762,"authorIdStr":"3584790043361762","name":"Dragon77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9b0b2898d9b2aece5490fa86fd5bd6f","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":7,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>G</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>G</body></html>","text":"G","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831812099","repostId":1130907862,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130907862","pubTimestamp":1629263879,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130907862?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 13:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130907862","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.While the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.That said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!NVIDIA Corp. reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.NVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands in three ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week (8/18) as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.</li>\n <li>While the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.</li>\n <li>That said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!</li>\n <li>Is this the next \"never sell\" stock?</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38542d6cdbd9dec8054c33389caf105c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Daniel Chetroni/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nNVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.\nThat said...there are certain stocks that you just don't sell!\nNVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands (and chips) in three of the biggest growth segments in technology: Gaming, cryptocurrency, and 5G (not to mention its importance in auto/self-driving!).\nIn fact, it's a stock that you should probably ADD to your position on any meaningful pullback.\nWhich makes it a great stock for a cash-secured put strategy. Get paid to set a downside limit order on a stock that you want to buy (or add to) on any dips!\nValuation\nAs we head into earnings this week, let's take a look at valuation.\nHigh-growth technology companies are always tough to value as they tend to trade at really high (current) multiples based on future growth projections.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488bcf7cabe5578f2e798e2b21b60dc0\" tg-width=\"565\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nYes, 45.8x forward earnings is a healthy multiple, but if any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA (given the importance of its chips in the major growth areas in technology).\nNVIDIA's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty!\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/961a45a675c7ac09b08b5b755c2d096c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nAlthough some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $3.95 per share in fiscal 2022 (129% increase over 2021). However, NVDA expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $4.36 per share (10% growth) and $5.04 per share (16% growth), respectively.Note that NVDA's fiscal year-end is January.\nThe company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $12.7 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a great return on invested capital of 23.6%.\nThe \"N\" in FAANG?\nOne could argue that NVIDIA should actually replace Netflix (NFLX) as the \"N\" in FAANG.\nNVIDIA is currently the 9th largest weighting in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9991ce7ada74056e0662b198cf339154\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: YCharts\nAnd the 8th largest weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f835b261cdbc64458bb82196e5134f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: YCharts\nCould NVIDIA also be the next addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (replacing International Business Machines (IBM) at some point)??\nAll the more reason to not sell any time soon...\nBuy The Dip! (Through Cash-Secured Puts)\nCash-secured puts are a great way to add to your long-term position on a stock that you like.\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for NVIDIA currently is $149.00-$173.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 13.0%.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e38091bf0ca8f52b16334659004eef4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Option income Advisor)\nNVIDIA has historically been a volatile stock (42% Implied Volatility), as highlighted by its low Volatility/Risk rating of 4. However, the stock is in a very strong uptrend (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 also has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 13.0%).\nNVDA also reports earnings this week, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have a few good levels of support to watch:\n<ol>\n <li>50-day MA (~$193.00)</li>\n <li>Low from July 2021 (~$181.50)</li>\n <li>Breakout level from May 2021 (~$161.00)</li>\n <li>200-day MA (~$152.50)</li>\n</ol>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28eb9670c7016d91d063e8e7809de17d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nThere appears to be some decent technical support in our strike zone of $149.00-$173.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put around the strike zone if we can.\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdd16ba25690201bcb1771ec8a557b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n<ul>\n <li>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.</li>\n <li>Margin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>\n <li>Delta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li>\n</ul>\nNote that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for NVIDIA. We're focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f301b2bff52960855c087e8208548dbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nWe have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-) and Conservative (-C-).Please listen to the video above for further details.\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n<ul>\n <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>\n <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>\n <li>Delta &lt; 30</li>\n</ul>\nThe NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option @ ~$1.81 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 12.3%, and a Delta of 13.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($185.00 strike) or more conservative ($170.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 strike put option @ $1.81, we would collect $181.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of NVDA stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $175.00.\nIf the stock stays above $175.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.81.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $175.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $175.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $173.19 ($175.00 - $1.81).\nAll that said, I think it's a win-win at this point if you can add to your NVDA position with a cost basis of $173.19.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on NVIDIA, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested adding to their position (or starting a new position). The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.0% over the next 31 days) with a margin-of-safety of 12.3%.\nAssuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could manufacture 12%-plus annualized income from NVIDIA over the next 12 months (while you patiently wait to add to your position).","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: The Next 'Never Sell' Stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 13:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450207-nvidia-the-next-never-sell-stock>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nNVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week (8/18) as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.\nWhile the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450207-nvidia-the-next-never-sell-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450207-nvidia-the-next-never-sell-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130907862","content_text":"Summary\n\nNVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday this week (8/18) as the stock is hovering around all-time highs.\nWhile the future certainly looks bright for the company, shares may be priced for perfection.\nThat said, if any stock deserves a high multiple right now, it's NVIDIA!\nIs this the next \"never sell\" stock?\n\nDaniel Chetroni/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nNVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings this week and the shares appear to be priced for perfection.\nThat said...there are certain stocks that you just don't sell!\nNVIDIA certainly falls into that category. If any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA. The company has its hands (and chips) in three of the biggest growth segments in technology: Gaming, cryptocurrency, and 5G (not to mention its importance in auto/self-driving!).\nIn fact, it's a stock that you should probably ADD to your position on any meaningful pullback.\nWhich makes it a great stock for a cash-secured put strategy. Get paid to set a downside limit order on a stock that you want to buy (or add to) on any dips!\nValuation\nAs we head into earnings this week, let's take a look at valuation.\nHigh-growth technology companies are always tough to value as they tend to trade at really high (current) multiples based on future growth projections.\n\nYes, 45.8x forward earnings is a healthy multiple, but if any company deserves a high multiple today, it's certainly NVIDIA (given the importance of its chips in the major growth areas in technology).\nNVIDIA's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty!\n\nAlthough some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $3.95 per share in fiscal 2022 (129% increase over 2021). However, NVDA expects earnings to grow even further in 2023 and 2024 to $4.36 per share (10% growth) and $5.04 per share (16% growth), respectively.Note that NVDA's fiscal year-end is January.\nThe company's balance sheet also is extremely strong with $12.7 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing a great return on invested capital of 23.6%.\nThe \"N\" in FAANG?\nOne could argue that NVIDIA should actually replace Netflix (NFLX) as the \"N\" in FAANG.\nNVIDIA is currently the 9th largest weighting in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nSource: YCharts\nAnd the 8th largest weighting in the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).\nSource: YCharts\nCould NVIDIA also be the next addition to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (replacing International Business Machines (IBM) at some point)??\nAll the more reason to not sell any time soon...\nBuy The Dip! (Through Cash-Secured Puts)\nCash-secured puts are a great way to add to your long-term position on a stock that you like.\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it's related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for NVIDIA currently is $149.00-$173.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 13.0%.\n(Source: Option income Advisor)\nNVIDIA has historically been a volatile stock (42% Implied Volatility), as highlighted by its low Volatility/Risk rating of 4. However, the stock is in a very strong uptrend (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 also has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 13.0%).\nNVDA also reports earnings this week, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have a few good levels of support to watch:\n\n50-day MA (~$193.00)\nLow from July 2021 (~$181.50)\nBreakout level from May 2021 (~$161.00)\n200-day MA (~$152.50)\n\n\nThere appears to be some decent technical support in our strike zone of $149.00-$173.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put around the strike zone if we can.\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%): Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %: Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta: A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance. The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for NVIDIA. We're focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 9/17/21.\n(Source: Option Income Advisor)\nWe have highlighted three levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-) and Conservative (-C-).Please listen to the video above for further details.\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n\nAverage Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%\nStrike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)\nDelta < 30\n\nThe NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option @ ~$1.81 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 12.3%, and a Delta of 13.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($185.00 strike) or more conservative ($170.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 strike put option @ $1.81, we would collect $181.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of NVDA stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $175.00.\nIf the stock stays above $175.00 between now and expiration (9/17/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.81.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $175.00 on expiration (9/17/21). Since we're obligated to buy the stock at $175.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $173.19 ($175.00 - $1.81).\nAll that said, I think it's a win-win at this point if you can add to your NVDA position with a cost basis of $173.19.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on NVIDIA, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested adding to their position (or starting a new position). The NVDA Sept 17th $175.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.0% over the next 31 days) with a margin-of-safety of 12.3%.\nAssuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could manufacture 12%-plus annualized income from NVIDIA over the next 12 months (while you patiently wait to add to your position).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}