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From Seeking Alpha, written by Mark Hibben

Summary

* “Unleashed” event to unveil high-end Apple Silicon MacBook Pros.

* Why the M1 was a stealth revolution.

* How the next-generation Apple Silicon Macs will change everything.

* Investor takeaways

Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images

A few weeks ago, I urged Apple (AAPL) investors to stop worrying about the latest iPhone and focus instead on the widely expected next-generation Apple Silicon MacBook Pros. That time has now arrived. Apple will "unleash" these new Macs at a special event on Monday and once again reshape the computer industry.

Source: Apple's YouTube channel.

"Unleashed"event to unveil high-end Apple Silicon MacBook Pros

The "Unleashed" event had been widely expected for some time, so it came as virtually no surprise to anyone, yet one senses more excitement than for the iPhone 13 launch. The iPhone 13 series has, in many ways, turned out better than expected, both in performance, as well as sales. But it was still incremental.

The new MacBook Pros, on the other hand, will be truly new. They will feature a complete hardware redesign inside and out. The bodies will be thinned and lightened to take advantage of Apple Silicon's energy efficiency. New screens (in 14-inch and 16-inch sizes) are expected to feature mini-LED backlighting for improved contrast.

Artist's conception of the new 16-inch MacBook Pro. Source: MacRumors.

Most reports continue to refer to the Apple Silicon chip that will power these new Macs as the M1X. I personally doubt this. It's been nearly a year since the release of the first M1-powered Macs. Apple needs to convey more progress than just an incrementally improved M1, so I think the "M2" designation is likely.

This won't be just a marketing ploy. I expect the new M2 not only to feature more CPU performance cores (8 vs. the 4 of the M1) but a new design for the cores based on the A15 Bionic. From early performance testing of the iPhone 13, it's apparent that the A15 performance cores got a performance bump. As reported by Tom's Guide, the A15 in the iPhone 13 Pro scored over 20% better than the A14 in iPhone 12 Pro in the Geekbench 5 multicore test.

Graphics processing also is expected to improve with at least double the M1's 8 GPU cores. Other features of the A15 will likely be carried over as well, including an improved Neural Processing Unit and Image Signal Processor. The integrated memory, a unique feature of the M1, will likely get a speed bump and larger base configuration (16 GB vs. 8 GB in the M1).

This will be the pattern going forward. iPhone will introduce the latest Apple Silicon designs in a scaled-down chip, with M-series chips building on these designs and scaling them up for Mac use. Apple has to do this in order to make best use of its processor design and engineering resources.

The big question is whether M2 will preserve the exceptional efficiency advantage I described for the M1 based on testing of my own MacBook Air. The M2 may give up some efficiency in the name of performance, a perfectly reasonable trade considering the huge efficiency advantage that the M1 enjoys over comparable x86 processors.

Why the M1 was a stealth revolution

It could be argued that Apple's M1 Macs were the truly revolutionary products, and that M2-based Macs are just following in the footsteps of the M1. This may be true, but the M1 was a stealth revolution for a number of reasons.

For one, the M1 got stuffed into existing Mac form factors that weren't really optimized for the chip. Battery capacity was actually overkilled since it was designed for the much more power-hungry Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) chips. In my daily use of the Air, battery level typically never falls below 80%. Fans in the 13-inch MacBook Pro and the Mac Mini were also overkilled.

Using the packaging from the Intel era simply didn't convey the revolutionary character of the M1. Also, the chip itself, while more than adequate for most desktop usage, including surprisingly good video editing performance, wasn't as powerful as the most powerful Intel and AMD (AMD) chips. The M1 could be passed off as merely an upscaled iPhone chip. Nothing to see here. Move along.

How the next-generation Apple Silicon Macs will change everything

I have consistently argued that processing efficiency is everything since power dissipation is a key limiting factor in the absolute computing performance of a chip. Although x86 processors feature a "Turbo Mode" with a higher clock frequency, most cannot sustain that for an extended period of time, due to temperature limits for the chip.

One of the interesting characteristics of the M1 is that it has no "Turbo Mode." The M1 is capable of running at its rated clock rate indefinitely, with only minimal cooling. Yet, there has been no existence proof of my thesis that a scaled-up M1 with more CPU and GPU cores would be able to beat x86 in absolute performance.

Thus, absolute performance, never mind efficiency, became the last bastion of x86. That bastion is about to be seriously eroded, if not obliterated, by the M2. If multicore performance of the M2 scales anywhere close to the expected increase in core count, there won't be anything in the mobile world that can touch it in absolute performance, at least for processors with integrated graphics.

Discrete graphics is another matter, and for a while at least, laptops and desktops with discrete GPUs will be able to offer more graphics performance. PC gaming, which I also enjoy, will remain the province of x86 CPUs combined with discrete GPUs.

But the M2 will completely reshape consumer expectations of laptop (and mid-range desktop) performance. The M2 will provide the needed existence proof that Apple Silicon is scalable to high-core count processors. Next year, Apple will be in a position to conquer even the performance heights now occupied by the largest CPUs from Intel and AMD.

Investor takeaways

Apple's journey to becoming a dominant fabless semiconductor company has been long and often disparaged. Even now, some critics claim that Apple is just a consumer goods company lacking innovation. Unfortunately for Apple investors, Apple's innovation has often been more real than apparent.

I expect the new M2 MacBook Pros to help change this. By virtue of being optimized for Apple Silicon, they will offer a combination of thin design, lightweight, battery life, and performance that simply isn't available anywhere else. The advantages of Apple Silicon will no longer be stealthy and non-obvious to consumers. The new M2 Macs will telegraph the advantages of Apple Silicon in ways that the M1 MacBooks could not.

Apple's Mac market share has been growing steadily, but unspectacularly, this year. According to IDC, Apple's PC unit share in Q3 stood at just 8.8%, up from 8.3% a year ago. The PC market is still quite large, and Apple's relatively small share means that there is still huge growth potential in Mac.

I expect Apple's share gains in the PC market to accelerate markedly with the introduction of M2 Macs and other even higher performance Macs to follow. I remain long Apple and rate it a Buy.

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