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Before this summer, $Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$ 's stock price in the secondary market seems to be blocked for a whole year. As one of the biggest beneficiary industries since the pandemic, the king of streaming media seems to have fallen into "content squeeze" in the first half. In the previous Q2 financial report analysis,We found that,

Compared to the glory of 10 million new users in 20Q2, the only 1.5 million new subscribers in 21Q2 were just like "collapsing", and new subscribers in North America even decreased by 430,000.

However, the content industry is changing rapidly. One TV Series could change the whole situation.

Squid Game ,of course, is this drama that may make Netflix break through the bottleneck.

This is not so much a victory for Korean dramas as a victory for Netflix. "Squid Game" is a dystopian drama with dark theme, which was once rejected by many Korean film and television companies because of "absurdity and unreality". But Netflix accepted it.

Netflix's standard of its own content is higher than that of ordinary film and television production companies, of course, mainly because it is bold enough. Previously, another drama "Kingdom" in South Korea broke through the original Korean costume drama mode and combined with the American theme of "zombie". As a result, it received a good response and became popular overseas, even becoming another peak drama besides "House of Cards".

The fetters between Netflix and users are these "ingenious" contents.

We can see from the latest industry survey report that after the download of Netflix App declined in Q2, Q3 began to rebound. This also basically confirms that Q3's user growth will rebound.

The main question now is, how strong will the rebound be?

The user growth expectations of Netflix Q3 and Q4 by major institutions also began to increase. For example $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ It is expected thatQ3 added 3.5 million users and Q4 added 8.5 million usersThe main source of growth is certainly the Asia-Pacific region. Baird Equity raised its target price to $680 from $650.

Wall Street's average expected revenue for Netflix Q3 is $7.48 billion, and the adjusted EPS is $2.62.

And does Netflix still have room to raise prices? At present,Its charging standard is already the highest in the industry.

The plot of Squid Game brings extra exciting audio-visual experience to the audience.This story itself is about the jungle law of capital law of the jungle. Isn't Netflix himself in such an environment? Reality is often more cruel than games!

However, according to a survey in Q2 financial report, although rising stars such as $迪士尼(DIS)$'s Disney+ of, $亚马逊(AMZN)$ 's Prime Video has attracted many users, but Netflix is still the leader in the amount of time users spend on TV.

It's a video website, YouTube has become an important competitor of Netflix. $谷歌A(GOOGL)$

However, we still have to see that Netflix is still facing considerable risks.

From the valuation point of view, the current valuation level of about 60 times P/E ratio is not low, andThe growth of cost side and the competition of streaming media industryIt also puts some pressure on future growth. 60+P/E ratio may last.

In addition, Netflix is in Is the progress on the game as expected? The expansion of its derivative business, such as setting up a book club and starting to sell derivative products, also shows investors its efforts to find a second growth curve.

More importantly, is Squid Game really a lifeline for Netflix? As far as the content industry is concerned, if the overall quality of film and television works in a period of time is very high, it is not easy to have "explosions",Does the appearance of "explosion models" mean that there is a lack of more works?

Let's look forward to more guidance on Q3 earnings.