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2021-09-06

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NIO: The Slowdown Is Only Temporary

Summary NIO’s delivery numbers for August showed only year over year growth of 48.3%. NIO’s ES6 and

NIO: The Slowdown Is Only Temporary

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":817140569,"tweetId":"817140569","gmtCreate":1630923713551,"gmtModify":1632905131734,"author":{"id":3586302488708678,"idStr":"3586302488708678","authorId":3586302488708678,"authorIdStr":"3586302488708678","name":"SEAHJH","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Awesome Lah</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Awesome Lah</p></body></html>","text":"Awesome Lah","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817140569","repostId":1120348716,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120348716","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630918145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120348716?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: The Slowdown Is Only Temporary","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120348716","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNIO’s delivery numbers for August showed only year over year growth of 48.3%.\nNIO’s ES6 and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO’s delivery numbers for August showed only year over year growth of 48.3%.</li>\n <li>NIO’s ES6 and EC6 production are affected by the chip supply shortage and the EV maker lowered the delivery forecast for the third-quarter.</li>\n <li>Delivery growth rates should snap back in Q4'21.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Chinese electric vehicle maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a>&nbsp;released worse than expected delivery numbers for August and lowered delivery guidance for Q3’21. Despite the revision, NIO will play an important role in EV adoption worldwide and the stock is facing great prospects long term.</p>\n<p><b>Slowdown in delivery growth is only temporary</b></p>\n<p>NIO has been used to reporting year over year delivery growth rates surpassing 100%. In July, the Chinese maker of electric sport utility vehicles, delivered close to 8,000 ES6s, ES8s and EC6s, with total cumulative deliveries growing 124.5% year over year. Rivals like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a> (LI) and XPeng (XPEV) delivered more than 8,000 vehicles and generated all-time delivery records each in July. With rival EV makers catching up to NIO regarding production and deliveries, the market eagerly expected the presentation of NIO’s August delivery numbers… which disappointed, to say the least.</p>\n<p>NIO’s August delivery numbers took an unexpected hit from the chip shortage which continues to hamper factory output for automobile companies around the world. NIO delivered only5,880 vehiclesin August 2021, showing a growth rate of 48.3%, which is meager for EV makers. Compared to July, NIO’s delivery growth contracted 26% month over month, a sign that the chip supply shortage is having a larger than expected impact on NIO’s factory output and delivery capacity. In August, NIO delivered 2,342 ES6s, 1,800 EC6s and 1,738 ES8s. Because the supply crunch continues to hit NIO’s production, the EV maker lowered its Q3’21 delivery forecast from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles to a lower level of 22,500 to 23,500. Based on the new guidance, NIO views it deliveries of 7,500 to 7,833 vehicles per month as realistic… which means delivery growth rates for the entire third-quarter will not be very strong.</p>\n<p>To add insult to injury, both Li Auto and XPeng delivered better growth rates for the month of August. Li Auto, which produces the Li ONE sport utility vehicle, delivered9,433 vehicleslast month, showing a growth rate of 248.0%. Li Auto also grew deliveries month over month, at a rate of 9.8%. XPeng also did well, and better than NIO. The maker of the P7 smart sedan and the G3 smart compact sport utility vehicle, delivered a total of7,214 electric vehicleslast month, representing a 172.0% year over year growth rate. However, XPeng also experienced a month over month drop in deliveries, but the drop was much less significant than in NIO’s case, 10.3%.</p>\n<p>Because of NIO’s new delivery guidance, my delivery forecast table for FY 2021 is now also updated. NIO said that the chip supply shortage predominantly affects the ES6 and the EC6 the most, the ES6 being NIO’s top-selling SUV on a volume basis. Since NIO’s factory output will continue to be hampered in Q3’21 - and production risks for Q4’21 have also increased - NIO is unlikely to achieve the 100,000 vehicle delivery milestone this year. I now estimate, with new information available, NIO to deliver a total of 90,206 EVs in FY 202, but my projections still assume a recovery in production and delivery rates in Q4’21. If the supply shortage spills over into the fourth-quarter, my delivery projections for Q4’21 are subject to revision.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9191b96947dee5ac658f631af148d36b\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(Source: Author Projections)</i></p>\n<p>Although NIO’s delivery growth has begun to slow down, NIO is not at fault here. The semiconductor supply shortage affects EV and non-EV makers around the world as production of smart vehicles relies heavily on technology and computer chips. The market shrugged off news about a slowdown in NIO’s delivery growth and shares of NIO advanced above $40 again yesterday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33a8172b498cd0601d3094e4b7536b1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">I expect NIO’s production and delivery rate to show strong signs of recovery in the fourth-quarter, although a full return to normal production may not occur before the first or second quarter of next year.</p>\n<p><b>One year from now, NIO should have a higher valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is no longer as cheap as it was last year and the EV maker requires investors to pay a higher sales multiplier factor for its growth. But this was also always true for Tesla (TSLA) which has never been cheap and Tesla’s shares, despite a high valuation, reached new highs steadily over the years. A year from now, the semiconductor supply shortage and slowdown in Q3’21 delivery growth will likely be nothing more than just a blip in NIO’s long growth story.</p>\n<p>NIO is expected togrow revenues 140%and may grow revenues even faster if NIO achieves mass market appeal with its SUVs and brings new sedan products to market (the ET7 sedan is expected to launch at the beginning of next year). NIO is still very much at the beginning of its growth and the risk profile, despite a P-S ratio of 7.1, is skewed to the upside.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95ca878a48af8b28583174a399278a6b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Risks with NIO</b></p>\n<p>The biggest risk for NIO is that EV delivery growth slows down permanently, the risk of which is likely low. Other car brands also felt the pinch from the chip supply crunch this year but the industry will move past this. Short term, however, a semiconductor shortage that gets worse before it gets better is a big risk that investors in EV maker NIO need to know about. My projections for total FY 2021 deliveries, especially the implied production rebound in Q4’21, may still be too optimistic. Longer term, a slowdown in NIO’s revenue growth, due to intensifying competition, poses a challenge.</p>\n<p><b>Final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>NIO’s drop in delivery growth is only temporary. How long this “temporary” will last is up for discussion, but based on NIO’s new guidance, the slowdown will last at least through the entire third-quarter. Once the chip supply shortage eases - which I expect to be the case in Q1’22 - NIO’s production and delivery should snap back and progress to new records. In the meantime, any major dip in NIO’s market value may be considered a buying opportunity.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: The Slowdown Is Only Temporary</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: The Slowdown Is Only Temporary\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 16:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453441-nio-the-slowdown-is-only-temporary><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO’s delivery numbers for August showed only year over year growth of 48.3%.\nNIO’s ES6 and EC6 production are affected by the chip supply shortage and the EV maker lowered the delivery ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453441-nio-the-slowdown-is-only-temporary\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453441-nio-the-slowdown-is-only-temporary","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1120348716","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO’s delivery numbers for August showed only year over year growth of 48.3%.\nNIO’s ES6 and EC6 production are affected by the chip supply shortage and the EV maker lowered the delivery forecast for the third-quarter.\nDelivery growth rates should snap back in Q4'21.\n\nChinese electric vehicle maker NIO Inc. released worse than expected delivery numbers for August and lowered delivery guidance for Q3’21. Despite the revision, NIO will play an important role in EV adoption worldwide and the stock is facing great prospects long term.\nSlowdown in delivery growth is only temporary\nNIO has been used to reporting year over year delivery growth rates surpassing 100%. In July, the Chinese maker of electric sport utility vehicles, delivered close to 8,000 ES6s, ES8s and EC6s, with total cumulative deliveries growing 124.5% year over year. Rivals like Li Auto (LI) and XPeng (XPEV) delivered more than 8,000 vehicles and generated all-time delivery records each in July. With rival EV makers catching up to NIO regarding production and deliveries, the market eagerly expected the presentation of NIO’s August delivery numbers… which disappointed, to say the least.\nNIO’s August delivery numbers took an unexpected hit from the chip shortage which continues to hamper factory output for automobile companies around the world. NIO delivered only5,880 vehiclesin August 2021, showing a growth rate of 48.3%, which is meager for EV makers. Compared to July, NIO’s delivery growth contracted 26% month over month, a sign that the chip supply shortage is having a larger than expected impact on NIO’s factory output and delivery capacity. In August, NIO delivered 2,342 ES6s, 1,800 EC6s and 1,738 ES8s. Because the supply crunch continues to hit NIO’s production, the EV maker lowered its Q3’21 delivery forecast from 23,000 to 25,000 vehicles to a lower level of 22,500 to 23,500. Based on the new guidance, NIO views it deliveries of 7,500 to 7,833 vehicles per month as realistic… which means delivery growth rates for the entire third-quarter will not be very strong.\nTo add insult to injury, both Li Auto and XPeng delivered better growth rates for the month of August. Li Auto, which produces the Li ONE sport utility vehicle, delivered9,433 vehicleslast month, showing a growth rate of 248.0%. Li Auto also grew deliveries month over month, at a rate of 9.8%. XPeng also did well, and better than NIO. The maker of the P7 smart sedan and the G3 smart compact sport utility vehicle, delivered a total of7,214 electric vehicleslast month, representing a 172.0% year over year growth rate. However, XPeng also experienced a month over month drop in deliveries, but the drop was much less significant than in NIO’s case, 10.3%.\nBecause of NIO’s new delivery guidance, my delivery forecast table for FY 2021 is now also updated. NIO said that the chip supply shortage predominantly affects the ES6 and the EC6 the most, the ES6 being NIO’s top-selling SUV on a volume basis. Since NIO’s factory output will continue to be hampered in Q3’21 - and production risks for Q4’21 have also increased - NIO is unlikely to achieve the 100,000 vehicle delivery milestone this year. I now estimate, with new information available, NIO to deliver a total of 90,206 EVs in FY 202, but my projections still assume a recovery in production and delivery rates in Q4’21. If the supply shortage spills over into the fourth-quarter, my delivery projections for Q4’21 are subject to revision.\n(Source: Author Projections)\nAlthough NIO’s delivery growth has begun to slow down, NIO is not at fault here. The semiconductor supply shortage affects EV and non-EV makers around the world as production of smart vehicles relies heavily on technology and computer chips. The market shrugged off news about a slowdown in NIO’s delivery growth and shares of NIO advanced above $40 again yesterday.\nI expect NIO’s production and delivery rate to show strong signs of recovery in the fourth-quarter, although a full return to normal production may not occur before the first or second quarter of next year.\nOne year from now, NIO should have a higher valuation\nNIO is no longer as cheap as it was last year and the EV maker requires investors to pay a higher sales multiplier factor for its growth. But this was also always true for Tesla (TSLA) which has never been cheap and Tesla’s shares, despite a high valuation, reached new highs steadily over the years. A year from now, the semiconductor supply shortage and slowdown in Q3’21 delivery growth will likely be nothing more than just a blip in NIO’s long growth story.\nNIO is expected togrow revenues 140%and may grow revenues even faster if NIO achieves mass market appeal with its SUVs and brings new sedan products to market (the ET7 sedan is expected to launch at the beginning of next year). NIO is still very much at the beginning of its growth and the risk profile, despite a P-S ratio of 7.1, is skewed to the upside.\nRisks with NIO\nThe biggest risk for NIO is that EV delivery growth slows down permanently, the risk of which is likely low. Other car brands also felt the pinch from the chip supply crunch this year but the industry will move past this. Short term, however, a semiconductor shortage that gets worse before it gets better is a big risk that investors in EV maker NIO need to know about. My projections for total FY 2021 deliveries, especially the implied production rebound in Q4’21, may still be too optimistic. Longer term, a slowdown in NIO’s revenue growth, due to intensifying competition, poses a challenge.\nFinal thoughts\nNIO’s drop in delivery growth is only temporary. How long this “temporary” will last is up for discussion, but based on NIO’s new guidance, the slowdown will last at least through the entire third-quarter. Once the chip supply shortage eases - which I expect to be the case in Q1’22 - NIO’s production and delivery should snap back and progress to new records. In the meantime, any major dip in NIO’s market value may be considered a buying opportunity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":10,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}