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Leonardk
2021-07-29

Do we hold?

AMD Is The New Bellwether

Summary AMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to

AMD Is The New Bellwether

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":808363693,"tweetId":"808363693","gmtCreate":1627558001912,"gmtModify":1631885586705,"author":{"id":3582686134372532,"idStr":"3582686134372532","authorId":3582686134372532,"authorIdStr":"3582686134372532","name":"Leonardk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676f5d832122882228ccbdd0362da858","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":6,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Do we hold?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Do we hold?</body></html>","text":"Do we hold?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808363693","repostId":1131779285,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131779285","pubTimestamp":1627551074,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131779285?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD Is The New Bellwether","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131779285","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>AMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to be.</li>\n <li>The revenue growth and valuations prove the market wants one thing: Growth.</li>\n <li>Intel has lost the bellwether title as it grows below the industry and AMD grows above it.</li>\n</ul>\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a41ea3a1a9c98364332ee70330427e8\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">nantonov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIt's hard to deny AMD (AMD) isn't the new up-and-coming bellwether of logic semiconductors, a position undoubtedly claimed by the chip king Intel (INTC). With AMD's&nbsp;latest earnings report&nbsp;on Tuesday, the title is no longer uncontested, even with the dramatic difference in absolute dollar figures between the two. One is growing big time while the other has been in a perpetual state of discord, in part or in whole, due to unresolved business direction. On Tuesday, AMD proved it isn't relenting any time soon in its pursuit of taking the semiconductor bellwether title. In fact, it may change the definition altogether as the growth it's producing in this sector is unheard of. It's time I give AMD the thumbs up and not just watch on the sidelines.\nGrowth, Growth, Growth\nMuch like the age-old adage for real estate of \"location, location, location\" to sell property, growth, growth, growth is the market's adage for share returns.\nThe market is simple when it comes to tech and anything to do with it: It pays for growth, not indecision. AMD is growing, Intel is indecisive. And not just decision-making indecisive, I'm talking business execution indecisive. AMD is proving it can produce monstrous growth, and Intel is proving incremental growth is all it can do.\nThe chart is simple. These are two very different companies:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64f87e5b692256d2b0c4584ad37e8fdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart mine, data from AMD and Intel earnings reports (non-GAAP for Intel)\nBoth companies experienced a similar slowdown during the pandemic quarter of last year (Q2), but these two companies couldn't be any more different from there. While Intel struggled to find growth, especially in the data center division, AMD was stacking bills in all categories, including EPYC sales, except for a seasonal lull in semi-custom after a large gaming console launch.\nSince then, the story has been very dull for Intel, with flatlined or negative growth while AMD nearly doubled growth over the trough of the pandemic with its latest report.\nA slow down to 46%-50% in Q3 from 100% in Q2 and even from 55% to 50% year-over-year is to be expected as the great gaming console launch of 2020 will not repeat at the same level. But, to still guide for near 50% growth with that tough comp is what, in part, is driving my bullishness.\nThe Valuation Proves It\nNow, of course, the market is in fact paying differently for both companies. The crucial difference is growth paves the way for better returns while stagnating growth paves the way for declines. The stock prices reflect as much:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dad2d35040d78da964efd16dcb1a6c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts\nBut the valuations also keep pace with the market's expectations:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd156a2787d8c3774149c77bf71063b2\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts\n(AMD with Q2 and updated guidance should push the forward P/E to ~38)\nAMD's growth is worth (now) around 38 times earnings. But if you put the stock chart and the PE chart over each other, one continues to rise while the other continues to grow into it (compressing). On the other hand, Intel continues to meander as its valuation remains sideways and revenue continues to struggle, resulting in a diminishing stock return.\nThe Bottom Line\nIntel bulls - you can say Intel has loads more cash flow and much higher revenue numbers (and it does), but the market isn't paying for that - clearly, as the stock price is stagnant over the last one-and-a-half years. The market is paying for growth. Period. Intel has very little to none, and AMD continues to prove it has it and more.\nYou can be a fanboy of either company, but what good is being a fanboy if you're not getting a return on your cheerleading?\nOne can continue to keep their money in Intel and collect 8%, including dividends, over two years, or carefully invest it in growth, which AMD is providing. This doesn't mean I love AMD's products - its graphics division leaves a lot to be desired (true ray tracing, DLSS 2.0, etc.) - but I can't stand by and hope Intel figures it out while AMD puts up the numbers it has been.\nThe Bellwether Title Up For Grabs\nThe basis for AMD taking over the bellwether position is because Intel can no longer provide the barometer for what the industry is doing. The semiconductor industry isn't shrinking. It's growing. From 2020 to 2021,the logic semiconductor industry is expected to grow 17%&nbsp;and over 6% from 2021 to 2022. Intel doesn't see that, it's below it. AMD doesn't see that, it's above it.\nI know which one is going to give me the heartbeat of the industry.\nYou tell me which one is going to produce returns over the next year to two years.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD Is The New Bellwether</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD Is The New Bellwether\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 17:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442043-amd-is-the-new-bellwether>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nAMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to be.\nThe revenue growth and valuations prove the market wants one thing: Growth.\nIntel has lost the ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442043-amd-is-the-new-bellwether\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442043-amd-is-the-new-bellwether","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131779285","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's earnings report on Tuesday has pushed me over the edge as to where my money needs to be.\nThe revenue growth and valuations prove the market wants one thing: Growth.\nIntel has lost the bellwether title as it grows below the industry and AMD grows above it.\n\nnantonov/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIt's hard to deny AMD (AMD) isn't the new up-and-coming bellwether of logic semiconductors, a position undoubtedly claimed by the chip king Intel (INTC). With AMD's latest earnings report on Tuesday, the title is no longer uncontested, even with the dramatic difference in absolute dollar figures between the two. One is growing big time while the other has been in a perpetual state of discord, in part or in whole, due to unresolved business direction. On Tuesday, AMD proved it isn't relenting any time soon in its pursuit of taking the semiconductor bellwether title. In fact, it may change the definition altogether as the growth it's producing in this sector is unheard of. It's time I give AMD the thumbs up and not just watch on the sidelines.\nGrowth, Growth, Growth\nMuch like the age-old adage for real estate of \"location, location, location\" to sell property, growth, growth, growth is the market's adage for share returns.\nThe market is simple when it comes to tech and anything to do with it: It pays for growth, not indecision. AMD is growing, Intel is indecisive. And not just decision-making indecisive, I'm talking business execution indecisive. AMD is proving it can produce monstrous growth, and Intel is proving incremental growth is all it can do.\nThe chart is simple. These are two very different companies:\nChart mine, data from AMD and Intel earnings reports (non-GAAP for Intel)\nBoth companies experienced a similar slowdown during the pandemic quarter of last year (Q2), but these two companies couldn't be any more different from there. While Intel struggled to find growth, especially in the data center division, AMD was stacking bills in all categories, including EPYC sales, except for a seasonal lull in semi-custom after a large gaming console launch.\nSince then, the story has been very dull for Intel, with flatlined or negative growth while AMD nearly doubled growth over the trough of the pandemic with its latest report.\nA slow down to 46%-50% in Q3 from 100% in Q2 and even from 55% to 50% year-over-year is to be expected as the great gaming console launch of 2020 will not repeat at the same level. But, to still guide for near 50% growth with that tough comp is what, in part, is driving my bullishness.\nThe Valuation Proves It\nNow, of course, the market is in fact paying differently for both companies. The crucial difference is growth paves the way for better returns while stagnating growth paves the way for declines. The stock prices reflect as much:\nData by YCharts\nBut the valuations also keep pace with the market's expectations:\nData by YCharts\n(AMD with Q2 and updated guidance should push the forward P/E to ~38)\nAMD's growth is worth (now) around 38 times earnings. But if you put the stock chart and the PE chart over each other, one continues to rise while the other continues to grow into it (compressing). On the other hand, Intel continues to meander as its valuation remains sideways and revenue continues to struggle, resulting in a diminishing stock return.\nThe Bottom Line\nIntel bulls - you can say Intel has loads more cash flow and much higher revenue numbers (and it does), but the market isn't paying for that - clearly, as the stock price is stagnant over the last one-and-a-half years. The market is paying for growth. Period. Intel has very little to none, and AMD continues to prove it has it and more.\nYou can be a fanboy of either company, but what good is being a fanboy if you're not getting a return on your cheerleading?\nOne can continue to keep their money in Intel and collect 8%, including dividends, over two years, or carefully invest it in growth, which AMD is providing. This doesn't mean I love AMD's products - its graphics division leaves a lot to be desired (true ray tracing, DLSS 2.0, etc.) - but I can't stand by and hope Intel figures it out while AMD puts up the numbers it has been.\nThe Bellwether Title Up For Grabs\nThe basis for AMD taking over the bellwether position is because Intel can no longer provide the barometer for what the industry is doing. The semiconductor industry isn't shrinking. It's growing. From 2020 to 2021,the logic semiconductor industry is expected to grow 17% and over 6% from 2021 to 2022. Intel doesn't see that, it's below it. AMD doesn't see that, it's above it.\nI know which one is going to give me the heartbeat of the industry.\nYou tell me which one is going to produce returns over the next year to two years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":299,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":9,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}