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Is Taiwan Semiconductor Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? What To Consider

Summary TSM offers exposure to the growing semiconductor industry in a diversified way, as it will

Is Taiwan Semiconductor Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? What To Consider

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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":807781320,"tweetId":"807781320","gmtCreate":1628057939460,"gmtModify":1631891544284,"author":{"id":3585205825397095,"authorId":3585205825397095,"authorIdStr":"3585205825397095","name":"Benj90","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":2,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Oh wow</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Oh wow</body></html>","text":"Oh wow","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807781320","repostId":1136485652,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136485652","pubTimestamp":1628057471,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136485652?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 14:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Taiwan Semiconductor Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136485652","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTSM offers exposure to the growing semiconductor industry in a diversified way, as it will ","content":"Summary\n<ul>\n <li>TSM offers exposure to the growing semiconductor industry in a diversified way, as it will benefit from growth at NVIDIA, Apple, and many more.</li>\n <li>The company's business model has some disadvantages as well, mainly its relatively high capital requirements that limit its FCF conversion rate.</li>\n <li>TSM is trading above its longer-term valuation range, but shares could still deliver attractive returns in the long run.</li>\n</ul>\nArticle Thesis\nThe semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth in recent years, and the long-term outlook remains strong as well. Chips are integral for our way of life and for our economy, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), as one of the largest manufacturers in the space, is poised to benefit from long-term growth trends. Investors should, apart from the growth prospects, also consider TSM's valuation and the risks for the business. Overall, TSM still seems like a company that could deliver attractive returns in the long run.\nTaiwan Semiconductor As A Play On Global Semiconductor Demand Growth\nOver the last couple of decades, the global semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth, as chips have become integral for almost everything we do, from work to our personal communication, and even for the way we spend our free time. These trends -- digitalization &amp; technification -- are still in play, and it seems highly unlikely that we will be using fewer technical gadgets and products in a decade or two. In fact, it seems, to me, pretty much certain that our chip usage will grow even more, due to megatrends such as the internet of things, smart products, self-driving cars, wearable tech, and so on. Even trends such as working from home will lead to fewer meetings that will be conducted in-person, which will, in turn, lead to higher demand for at-home technical equipment and processing power in server farms that handle video conferences. New and emerging technologies, such as the&nbsp;Metaverse&nbsp;as the next-generation internet, will require more processing power compared to current technologies as well, which will, in turn, lead to higher chip demand. Overall, the growth outlook for the semiconductor industry is thus strong and will remain strong for a long time, I believe. This does not necessarily mean that every company in this space will grow forever, but it is, of course, better to be active in a high-growth industry rather than a low-growth industry, all else equal.\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, as the leading contract manufacturer in the world, will benefit from higher demand for contract manufacturing. This, in turn, will be driven by the increasing demand from fabless companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and many more that are paying TSM to manufacture their semiconductors.\nTaiwan Semiconductor's business model has the upside of allowing the company to benefit from growing chip demand overall, no matter which individual customer experiences the highest demand growth. On the other hand, there are also downsides to TSM's business model, mainly the fact that the buildout of&nbsp;new plants&nbsp;requires huge capital expenditures:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5579119980e11c583375bdbd4b054194\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts\nTSM did generate operating cash flows of $29 billion over the last year, which results in a free cash flow of $9 billion once capital expenditures of $20 billion are subtracted. Net income, over the same time, was $18 billion, which means that TSM's free cash flow conversion rate was rather low, at just 50%. Other semiconductor companies, especially those that operate on a fabless basis, do generate significantly higher FCF relative to their net profits. One should, however, note that not all of TSM's capital expenditures are spent on maintenance projects, and growth spending will lead to higher cash flows at some point in the future. Still, TSM's business model means that its FCF is relatively weak relative to net profits, which limits the company's ability to grow via M&amp;A or to return cash to the company's owners.\nIs TSM Stock Overvalued?\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has seen its shares rise by 45% over the last year, which may lead to questions about its current valuation. It should, however, be noted that this is not that much more than the returns by the broad market over the same time frame, as the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) is up 35% over the last twelve months. TSM's stock trades significantly below the all-time high that was hit in early 2021 at $142, shares have declined by close to 20% over the last couple of months. Based on current earnings per share estimates for this fiscal year, TSM trades at 27x net profits, which is neither an overly high valuation nor an especially low valuation in absolute terms. On a relative basis, TSM looks significantly more expensive than it used to be:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3630fc05937b218e3c5522064b623da8\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts\nIn the above chart, we see that TSM was historically valued at 17x-23x its net profits, on average. At current prices, TSM trades about 20% above the 3-year median earnings multiple, and at a quite large 60% premium compared to the 10-year median. One can, of course, note that multiple expansion relative to the 10-year median is justified -- interest rates are ultra-low today, TSM's scale has improved and its moat has grown, and shares were arguably too cheap over much of the last decade. I would thus not call TSM overly expensive today, but it is still noteworthy that the company trades at a pretty clear premium compared to how shares were valued in the past.\nWhen we compare TSM's valuation to its growth rate, TSM does not look overly expensive, either. The company grew its earnings per share by 11% in the most recent quarter, and&nbsp;revenue growth&nbsp;has been in the double-digits, and as high as 45% in eight out of the last eight quarters. Strong growth will persist through the coming quarters and years from what we know today:\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54f91237b93efce20ea06606b1896a3d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TSM presentation\nBased on management's current guidance, TSM will grow its revenue by 20% in Q3, compared to the previous year's quarter. On top of that, TSM's top line will hit a new record high, as revenues have never breached $14 billion before. Margins will, from what we know, not improve versus recent quarters, but top-line growth alone, at constant margins, will allow for an attractive increase in net profits.\nDue to the aforementioned tailwinds for the semiconductor industry as a whole, and thanks to a strong position for TSM when it comes to manufacturing processes such as 5nm and 7nm, which make up 50% of TSM's revenue, it is not a big surprise to see that analysts are forecasting attractive growth well beyond 2021. Current consensus estimates see TSM earning&nbsp;$5.53 per share&nbsp;in 2023, which gets us to a 2023 earnings multiple of 21, which I do not deem expensive for a major player in a growth industry such as TSM.\nWill TSM Stock Go Up?\nIn the near term, price movements are mostly driven by sentiment, and not really influenced by underlying results to a large degree. It thus seems pretty daring to try to estimate where prices will be a month or 3 months from now. The current consensus price target by the analyst community is $137, which indicates an upside of around 20% over the next year. The consensus rating by Wall Street analysts is also bullish, and the same holds true for the Seeking Alpha Quant rating, which stands at3.8, which is moderately bullish. With an RSI (relative strength index) of 48, Taiwan Semiconductor is neither overbought nor oversold. Over the next year, its share price could thus climb if the analyst community is correct, but this is far from certain, and the above-average valuation may pressure returns in the foreseeable future. It is, however, more important to try to evaluate where shares will be a couple of years from now, and the outlook is pretty solid for TSM in that regard.\nIs TSM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nDue to the aforementioned industry characteristics and TSM's sizeable moat when it comes to contract manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has an attractive long-term growth outlook, I believe. Analysts are forecasting $5.53 in earnings per share for 2023, and growth beyond that point should remain meaningful as well -- analysts are expecting 16% growth annually in the long run.\n<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf936a529b0793b3f6469237189d9d29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: FAST Graphs\nAs we see in the above chart, annual returns could come in around 11% a year through the next five years if the consensus growth rate is correct -- and multiple compression towards an earnings multiple of 22 is already included in that estimate. Due to the fact that TSM is trading above its normal range today, I believe that a 27x earnings multiple will not be maintained, but an earnings multiple in the low 20s seems quite reasonable to me. Even if the P/E ratio were to decline to just 20, TSM would still generate annual returns of 9% a year through 2026, assuming growth is as fast as expected. Since TSM has managed to beat profit estimates for 13 quarters in a row, one could assume that there is little risk that analyst estimates are suddenly too aggressive -- in fact, returns could be slightly higher than what the above model indicates if the beating of expectations continues.\nOverall, TSM looks like a very solid long-term investment if one seeks a play that gives exposure to the whole semiconductor industry and its long-term growth tailwinds. \nTSM pays a dividend yielding around 1.7% today, which is not overly much, but still more than what one can get from the broad market. Combined with a 5-year dividend growth rate of 13%, Taiwan Semiconductor seems like an appealing choice for a dividend growth investment -- the overall pretty strong&nbsp;Dividend Grades&nbsp;from Seeking Alpha's quant algorithm underline this. It would, of course, be great if one could buy TSM at or closer to the median earnings multiples from the past, but there is no immediate catalyst that could bring shares back down below $100, and it is far from certain that this will happen at all.\nOverall, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company thus looks like a very solid long-term pick, even though total returns will likely be negatively impacted by some multiple compression in the long run. Annual returns, including dividends, in the 9%-12% range are realistic when one has a multi-year investment horizon, I believe. This is far from what one got over the last five years (more than 30% a year), but this could easily be enough to beat the returns of the market through 2026, I believe.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Taiwan Semiconductor Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Taiwan Semiconductor Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-04 14:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444222-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-good-long-term-investment>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nTSM offers exposure to the growing semiconductor industry in a diversified way, as it will benefit from growth at NVIDIA, Apple, and many more.\nThe company's business model has some ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444222-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-good-long-term-investment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444222-taiwan-semiconductor-stock-good-long-term-investment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136485652","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSM offers exposure to the growing semiconductor industry in a diversified way, as it will benefit from growth at NVIDIA, Apple, and many more.\nThe company's business model has some disadvantages as well, mainly its relatively high capital requirements that limit its FCF conversion rate.\nTSM is trading above its longer-term valuation range, but shares could still deliver attractive returns in the long run.\n\nArticle Thesis\nThe semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth in recent years, and the long-term outlook remains strong as well. Chips are integral for our way of life and for our economy, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), as one of the largest manufacturers in the space, is poised to benefit from long-term growth trends. Investors should, apart from the growth prospects, also consider TSM's valuation and the risks for the business. Overall, TSM still seems like a company that could deliver attractive returns in the long run.\nTaiwan Semiconductor As A Play On Global Semiconductor Demand Growth\nOver the last couple of decades, the global semiconductor industry has experienced rapid growth, as chips have become integral for almost everything we do, from work to our personal communication, and even for the way we spend our free time. These trends -- digitalization & technification -- are still in play, and it seems highly unlikely that we will be using fewer technical gadgets and products in a decade or two. In fact, it seems, to me, pretty much certain that our chip usage will grow even more, due to megatrends such as the internet of things, smart products, self-driving cars, wearable tech, and so on. Even trends such as working from home will lead to fewer meetings that will be conducted in-person, which will, in turn, lead to higher demand for at-home technical equipment and processing power in server farms that handle video conferences. New and emerging technologies, such as the Metaverse as the next-generation internet, will require more processing power compared to current technologies as well, which will, in turn, lead to higher chip demand. Overall, the growth outlook for the semiconductor industry is thus strong and will remain strong for a long time, I believe. This does not necessarily mean that every company in this space will grow forever, but it is, of course, better to be active in a high-growth industry rather than a low-growth industry, all else equal.\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, as the leading contract manufacturer in the world, will benefit from higher demand for contract manufacturing. This, in turn, will be driven by the increasing demand from fabless companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and many more that are paying TSM to manufacture their semiconductors.\nTaiwan Semiconductor's business model has the upside of allowing the company to benefit from growing chip demand overall, no matter which individual customer experiences the highest demand growth. On the other hand, there are also downsides to TSM's business model, mainly the fact that the buildout of new plants requires huge capital expenditures:\nData by YCharts\nTSM did generate operating cash flows of $29 billion over the last year, which results in a free cash flow of $9 billion once capital expenditures of $20 billion are subtracted. Net income, over the same time, was $18 billion, which means that TSM's free cash flow conversion rate was rather low, at just 50%. Other semiconductor companies, especially those that operate on a fabless basis, do generate significantly higher FCF relative to their net profits. One should, however, note that not all of TSM's capital expenditures are spent on maintenance projects, and growth spending will lead to higher cash flows at some point in the future. Still, TSM's business model means that its FCF is relatively weak relative to net profits, which limits the company's ability to grow via M&A or to return cash to the company's owners.\nIs TSM Stock Overvalued?\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has seen its shares rise by 45% over the last year, which may lead to questions about its current valuation. It should, however, be noted that this is not that much more than the returns by the broad market over the same time frame, as the S&P 500 index (SPY) is up 35% over the last twelve months. TSM's stock trades significantly below the all-time high that was hit in early 2021 at $142, shares have declined by close to 20% over the last couple of months. Based on current earnings per share estimates for this fiscal year, TSM trades at 27x net profits, which is neither an overly high valuation nor an especially low valuation in absolute terms. On a relative basis, TSM looks significantly more expensive than it used to be:\nData by YCharts\nIn the above chart, we see that TSM was historically valued at 17x-23x its net profits, on average. At current prices, TSM trades about 20% above the 3-year median earnings multiple, and at a quite large 60% premium compared to the 10-year median. One can, of course, note that multiple expansion relative to the 10-year median is justified -- interest rates are ultra-low today, TSM's scale has improved and its moat has grown, and shares were arguably too cheap over much of the last decade. I would thus not call TSM overly expensive today, but it is still noteworthy that the company trades at a pretty clear premium compared to how shares were valued in the past.\nWhen we compare TSM's valuation to its growth rate, TSM does not look overly expensive, either. The company grew its earnings per share by 11% in the most recent quarter, and revenue growth has been in the double-digits, and as high as 45% in eight out of the last eight quarters. Strong growth will persist through the coming quarters and years from what we know today:\nSource: TSM presentation\nBased on management's current guidance, TSM will grow its revenue by 20% in Q3, compared to the previous year's quarter. On top of that, TSM's top line will hit a new record high, as revenues have never breached $14 billion before. Margins will, from what we know, not improve versus recent quarters, but top-line growth alone, at constant margins, will allow for an attractive increase in net profits.\nDue to the aforementioned tailwinds for the semiconductor industry as a whole, and thanks to a strong position for TSM when it comes to manufacturing processes such as 5nm and 7nm, which make up 50% of TSM's revenue, it is not a big surprise to see that analysts are forecasting attractive growth well beyond 2021. Current consensus estimates see TSM earning $5.53 per share in 2023, which gets us to a 2023 earnings multiple of 21, which I do not deem expensive for a major player in a growth industry such as TSM.\nWill TSM Stock Go Up?\nIn the near term, price movements are mostly driven by sentiment, and not really influenced by underlying results to a large degree. It thus seems pretty daring to try to estimate where prices will be a month or 3 months from now. The current consensus price target by the analyst community is $137, which indicates an upside of around 20% over the next year. The consensus rating by Wall Street analysts is also bullish, and the same holds true for the Seeking Alpha Quant rating, which stands at3.8, which is moderately bullish. With an RSI (relative strength index) of 48, Taiwan Semiconductor is neither overbought nor oversold. Over the next year, its share price could thus climb if the analyst community is correct, but this is far from certain, and the above-average valuation may pressure returns in the foreseeable future. It is, however, more important to try to evaluate where shares will be a couple of years from now, and the outlook is pretty solid for TSM in that regard.\nIs TSM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nDue to the aforementioned industry characteristics and TSM's sizeable moat when it comes to contract manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has an attractive long-term growth outlook, I believe. Analysts are forecasting $5.53 in earnings per share for 2023, and growth beyond that point should remain meaningful as well -- analysts are expecting 16% growth annually in the long run.\nSource: FAST Graphs\nAs we see in the above chart, annual returns could come in around 11% a year through the next five years if the consensus growth rate is correct -- and multiple compression towards an earnings multiple of 22 is already included in that estimate. Due to the fact that TSM is trading above its normal range today, I believe that a 27x earnings multiple will not be maintained, but an earnings multiple in the low 20s seems quite reasonable to me. Even if the P/E ratio were to decline to just 20, TSM would still generate annual returns of 9% a year through 2026, assuming growth is as fast as expected. Since TSM has managed to beat profit estimates for 13 quarters in a row, one could assume that there is little risk that analyst estimates are suddenly too aggressive -- in fact, returns could be slightly higher than what the above model indicates if the beating of expectations continues.\nOverall, TSM looks like a very solid long-term investment if one seeks a play that gives exposure to the whole semiconductor industry and its long-term growth tailwinds. \nTSM pays a dividend yielding around 1.7% today, which is not overly much, but still more than what one can get from the broad market. Combined with a 5-year dividend growth rate of 13%, Taiwan Semiconductor seems like an appealing choice for a dividend growth investment -- the overall pretty strong Dividend Grades from Seeking Alpha's quant algorithm underline this. It would, of course, be great if one could buy TSM at or closer to the median earnings multiples from the past, but there is no immediate catalyst that could bring shares back down below $100, and it is far from certain that this will happen at all.\nOverall, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company thus looks like a very solid long-term pick, even though total returns will likely be negatively impacted by some multiple compression in the long run. Annual returns, including dividends, in the 9%-12% range are realistic when one has a multi-year investment horizon, I believe. This is far from what one got over the last five years (more than 30% a year), but this could easily be enough to beat the returns of the market through 2026, I believe.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":5,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Is Taiwan Semiconductor Stock A Good Long-Term Investment? What To Consider

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