吴家琦
2022-07-06

The Energy crunch in Europe

1) Energy induced Recession = lower EUR

2) Recession Risk = higher credit spreads and peripheral spreads = lower portfolio inflows

3) Higher cost of manufacturing, shortage of key supply chain materials increase inflation pressure and growth pressure

4) Factory shutdowns = potential higher unemployment

Essentially the Euro area's cost of energy is 3-4 times higher than that of the US and this key disadvantage for Euro manufacturing requires a weaker currency

ECB can make all the noise they want on FX but with 214bps priced over 2yrs already - not really much they can speak up.

Is USD parity Around the corner?

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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评论（7）

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  • zhihuaya
    ·2022-07-07
    [开心] [开心]
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    • JemLIm: 
      cook
      2022-07-07
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  • 大宗猎手
    ·2022-07-07
    这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
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  • 波罗的海蜜蜡
    ·2022-07-07
    这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
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  • JemLIm
    ·2022-07-07
    yes
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  • Bigbenben
    ·2022-07-07
    1
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  • Lasers
    ·2022-07-07
    [微笑]
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