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2022-06-10

The Stock Market and Inflation: How the S&P 500 Performs on CPI Report Days

Stock-market investors crowded the exits on Thursday, sending major stock indexes sharply lower a da

The Stock Market and Inflation: How the S&P 500 Performs on CPI Report Days

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Recent history may offer a clue.</p><p>&#34;While median returns for the S&amp;P 500 have been right around the flatline over the last two years on CPI days, more recent returns have been much weaker,&#34; wrote analysts at Bespoke Investment Group, in a Thursday note. Since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stopped using the term &#34;transitory&#34; in late November to describe inflation, the S&amp;P 500 has declined on the day of the CPI report four out of six times, including the past four reports.</p><p>Over the past six months, the S&amp;P 500&#39;s median performance on CPI days has been a decline of 0.18%, the analysts said.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500  dropped 2.4% on Thursday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average  slumped nearly 640 points, or 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite  shed 2.7%.</p><p>The consumer-price index is expected to show a large, 0.7% increase when the report is released Friday morning -- more than double the gain in the prior month. The increase in inflation over the past year, meanwhile, is forecast to stay near a 40-year high of 8.4%.</p><p>The Bespoke analysts looked at sector performance over the past six reports and found that energy, unsurprisingly, has been the best performer on CPI days, with a median gain of 1.1%, while technology was the worst. Of course, 2022&#39;s stock-market fall has been led by tech-related stocks, while energy has soared in response to surging oil prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a249d567c99dd8c9477bdce90f9089a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bespoke noted that for a market concerned about inflation, recent reports haven&#39;t offered investors much comfort. Over the past 24 months, there were just three months where headline CPI came in weaker than expected (6/10/20, 11/12/20, and 9/14/21), they said.</p><p>&#34;Ironically enough, on each of those three days, the S&amp;P 500 actually traded lower, although to be fair, all three of these reports were before Powell ditched the term &#39;transitory,&#39;&#34; the analysts wrote.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market and Inflation: How the S&P 500 Performs on CPI Report Days</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market and Inflation: How the S&P 500 Performs on CPI Report Days\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-06-10 07:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stock-market investors crowded the exits on Thursday, sending major stock indexes sharply lower a day ahead of another eagerly anticipated consumer-price index reading. Recent history may offer a clue.</p><p>&#34;While median returns for the S&amp;P 500 have been right around the flatline over the last two years on CPI days, more recent returns have been much weaker,&#34; wrote analysts at Bespoke Investment Group, in a Thursday note. Since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stopped using the term &#34;transitory&#34; in late November to describe inflation, the S&amp;P 500 has declined on the day of the CPI report four out of six times, including the past four reports.</p><p>Over the past six months, the S&amp;P 500&#39;s median performance on CPI days has been a decline of 0.18%, the analysts said.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500  dropped 2.4% on Thursday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average  slumped nearly 640 points, or 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite  shed 2.7%.</p><p>The consumer-price index is expected to show a large, 0.7% increase when the report is released Friday morning -- more than double the gain in the prior month. The increase in inflation over the past year, meanwhile, is forecast to stay near a 40-year high of 8.4%.</p><p>The Bespoke analysts looked at sector performance over the past six reports and found that energy, unsurprisingly, has been the best performer on CPI days, with a median gain of 1.1%, while technology was the worst. Of course, 2022&#39;s stock-market fall has been led by tech-related stocks, while energy has soared in response to surging oil prices.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a249d567c99dd8c9477bdce90f9089a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bespoke noted that for a market concerned about inflation, recent reports haven&#39;t offered investors much comfort. Over the past 24 months, there were just three months where headline CPI came in weaker than expected (6/10/20, 11/12/20, and 9/14/21), they said.</p><p>&#34;Ironically enough, on each of those three days, the S&amp;P 500 actually traded lower, although to be fair, all three of these reports were before Powell ditched the term &#39;transitory,&#39;&#34; the analysts wrote.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242514365","content_text":"Stock-market investors crowded the exits on Thursday, sending major stock indexes sharply lower a day ahead of another eagerly anticipated consumer-price index reading. Recent history may offer a clue.\"While median returns for the S&P 500 have been right around the flatline over the last two years on CPI days, more recent returns have been much weaker,\" wrote analysts at Bespoke Investment Group, in a Thursday note. Since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stopped using the term \"transitory\" in late November to describe inflation, the S&P 500 has declined on the day of the CPI report four out of six times, including the past four reports.Over the past six months, the S&P 500's median performance on CPI days has been a decline of 0.18%, the analysts said.The S&P 500  dropped 2.4% on Thursday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average  slumped nearly 640 points, or 1.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite  shed 2.7%.The consumer-price index is expected to show a large, 0.7% increase when the report is released Friday morning -- more than double the gain in the prior month. The increase in inflation over the past year, meanwhile, is forecast to stay near a 40-year high of 8.4%.The Bespoke analysts looked at sector performance over the past six reports and found that energy, unsurprisingly, has been the best performer on CPI days, with a median gain of 1.1%, while technology was the worst. Of course, 2022's stock-market fall has been led by tech-related stocks, while energy has soared in response to surging oil prices.Bespoke noted that for a market concerned about inflation, recent reports haven't offered investors much comfort. Over the past 24 months, there were just three months where headline CPI came in weaker than expected (6/10/20, 11/12/20, and 9/14/21), they said.\"Ironically enough, on each of those three days, the S&P 500 actually traded lower, although to be fair, all three of these reports were before Powell ditched the term 'transitory,'\" the analysts wrote.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":922,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}